all every day to help me fight for you. i always like to say, there is a bull market somewhere. i promise to find it just for you. right here, on "mad money." thank you for nine great years, cramerica. here's the deadline is set. the u.s. is giving vladimir putin until monday to back down in crimea or else major sanct n sanctions will go into effect. secretary of state john kerry is talking tough, german prime minister angela merkel is talking tough, but will they stand their ground and follow through? we have reports from kiev and washington for you tonight with all the latest. however, russia's already responding financially. russia's central bank and russian companies and russian private banks are reportedly pulling billions out of the u.s. and western banks. i guess they're worried that financial sanctions and an asset freeze is on the way. and then another subject that's been a terrible week for

gm. today, it got even worse. now, there are now accusations that a gm defect may have led to hundreds of deaths. all those stories and much more coming up on "the kudlow report", beginning right now. good evening, everyone, i'm larry culled level is the kudlow report. we are live here, 7 p.m. eastern, 4 p.m. pacific. now the crimean referendum will take place on sunday russian troops overseeing the whole thing. that will lead to a monday deadline from secretary of state john kerry. kerry met with russian foreign minister, sergei lavrov today. nbc news's steve sedgwick joins us from kiev with details of that meeting. good evening, steve. >> reporter: ukraine remains on tenterhooks friday as last-ditch talks to avert the referendum down in the crimea on sunday failed to create a solution with the kremlin and the west still

at logger heads. john kerry after his talks with sergei lavrov says the russians should respect the efforts that have kept peace. secretary of state john kerry said a referendum vote in the crimea sunday was illegal. laugh roar said, for his part, sanctions would be counterproductive and you said the u.n. had enshah rind the right for self-determination, giving justification for the russian backing of it's starts in crimea but offered hope for ukraine, despite russian maneuvers in the russian federation close to the border with ukraine, there was no intention on the russian part for actually having more military activity outside of the crimea within ukraine's borders. i spoke with the economy minister today here in kiev and he said to me, despite the impasse, he still had very high hopes for diplomacy and hope that pressure from both the west and indeed from inside russia

would actually change the view of the kremlin and its staunch support of crimean secession. larry, back to you. >> many thanks to steve sedgwick. now, i'll never hear us talk about something called the fed's custody holdings for other central banks, but tonight is different. this normally boring report suddenly shows a huge withdrawal by a central bank. question, was it russia? cnbc's own patty don join us with more. good evening, patty. >> good evening, larry. boy, was there a lot of buzz on the street of on that report. you're right, we don't usually look too deeply at that but there was speculation it was russia, partly because of the timing, partly because of sunday and you would have thought that vladimir putin drove up to the fed, put all the treasury bills into a suitcase and drove away, there was that chatter about t speculation it could be china, they have bigger holdings of treasuries, but not likely. there's no evidence that it was russia but everybody's talking about it and believe it is russia.

now, where did they go? that's the big question. >> all right. let me ask you a couple questions. i didn't know if you were done or not. first of all, you asked where do they go? let me just add to this, from your work today ann the work of some other people. other russian banks are pulling their securities out of u.s. and european banks and also, patti, from what i gather, russian corporations are pulling money out of u.s. and european banks. so i guess the question is, if they are taking it out of the usa if they are taking it out of the federal reserve custody holdings, if they are taking it out of europe, where are they putting it? it can't all go to cyprus, or maybe it can. >> no, i don't know where they are putting it, larry, that is the big question. a lot of talk about it, did it go to asia? i mean, there's an awful lot of buzz about that the other thing that putin is doing is, you know, he is acting like this is the soviet union. he has a really -- i mean, there's a lot of talk about -- he is not really take nothing account his own economy, his own stock market. there's been a big decline in

russian stocks. now, there's a lot of paranoid around these types of moves and there's a lot of talk about that on the street. these businesses are really fearful that their assets will be frozen. >> right. all right. you got it. many thanks, patti domm. appreciate t now turn to our very distinguished panel about this whole story, welcome back former deputy understate robert hor math at kissinger associates, former ambassador to the european union and former white house counsel, bound gray. great pleasure, boyden and former undersecretary of state, paula deb britain ski, served as director of european and soviet affairs at the national security council during the reagan administration. okay. you're all terrific. thank you for doing this bob, let me ask you first, is there some wiggle room here regarding crimea and the referendum? lavrov says putin hasn't made up his mind and won't make up his mind until he sees the results of the referendum. we know what the results are going to be. but are the russians leaving

some wiggle room with respect to how they will treat crimea? >> well, perhaps they are. i think it's not likely that they are going to give up crimea but they could make some changes that would ease the situation. there are two reasons for this. one is that they may be more concerned now about the economic impact of this on russia. the other is that putin has actually never declared that his troops are there he has always sort of fudged that. so, it actually makes it easier for him if he wants to back off. but i don't think we should deceive ourselves. the problem billity of russian influence and ukraine being much higher than it has been is a highly likely one. and he is not gonna move very much. >> well, you know, lavrov also, by the way, today, at least as it was reported in the "wall street journal", compared the crimea for the talk lands. the only trouble with that comparison is ar jeanine ta attacked the talk lands. united states or ukraine did not attack crimea.

so i thought that was very odd. but, but, paula, let me go to you, lavrov also said, this is really key, the 80,000 troops milling around ukraine, he said they are not going into eastern ukraine. do you believe it? >> well, i think it remains to be seen. the foreign minister of sweden, carl bit. lt, tweeted the other day the concern that those troops were exercising and moving in that area. so it really remains to be seen. and with the provocations that are taking place in eastern ukraine, it seems that it's almost like a setup and a rash nail to take action. and finally, you know,s t the countries surrounding ukraine are very, very concerned about those troop movements right on the southeastern border of ukraine and what it pore tends for them. they are speaking up, appealing to nato about those actions. >> boyden gray, let's just continue what paula is raising

here. charles krauthammer talked about this in his column today. nato. u.s. joint chiefs of staff. should we be making our military presence known better in the battic and the neighboring ukraine countries? what do you got, poland, slovakia, hungary and romania? should we see -- not saying military wars and any feet on the ground, but the top brass and a lot of tougher talk from nato? is that going to happen? should that happen? >> i think it would help but requires virtual unanimity from europe, got to get their act together, perhaps we can help, but a show of unity from the rest of europe would be very important at this particular time. >> boyden, we heard tough angela merkel, tough, tough, tough, today and yesterday, almost as though somebody turned the switch on and changed her whole deal. do you think there will be unity? the french have been tough

before. do you think there will be unity between the eu and the u.s.? >> with merkel being as tough as she is given her -- or given germany's relationship long time with russia as a customer around a supplier, i think this is -- bodes very well for a show of unity that i think would back putin off. he is not used to being talked to this way by any german chancellor and i think this is a very good sign. >> let me go back to bob hormats saying the united states should res sur recognized the missile defense system for the czech republic and poland that's more than symbolic. we should actually redo it resign the agreements and begin. what's your take on that? >> i don't think they want to go that far yes. i think they are going to confine most of their actions, as secretary kerry indicated, to economic sanctions they could tighten them up and they believe that given the weakness of the russian economy and it's become weaker and weak er, there will e more pressure on putin as a

result of that the key is u.s. and europe doing it together. sanctions have ton a unifier between the united states and europe, not a dividing factor around if there is unity and the federal chancellor has been much tougher than she was a week ago, i think that bodes quite well for a solid effort. the russian economy is weak. it depends very heavily on energy. and they need investment and not going to get a lot of investment. >> investments running the wrong watch we are going to come back in the next segment, the investment has gone the absolute wrong way. paula, before i lose you on this segment, you are coming right back, let me just ask you, what about this business of rebuilding the agreement and the missile defense system for the czech republic and poland? what's your thinking on that? >> well, my view is alls ones are on the table. countries like the baltic states, latvia and estonia, that have high percentages of russian -- ethnic russians in their population, have expressed concerns, so has poland some, i would put this it this way, i

think these options are on the table. i agree with my colleagues that a unified and very strong and resolute voice here is absolutely essential. >> all right. thank you. everybody stick around. we have got a lot more to cover on this still-developing story. i want to talk about these economic sanctions what the u.s. should do and what the impact on russia might be. later, the latest numbers show youth enrollment in obamacare is only hovering at about 20 to 25%. that is way below white house expectations. so the question is, why isn't the expensive campaign to get them to sign up working? that's the number one topic for the kudlow youth summit, real college-aged kids, they are gonna join us live on the set tonight. for now, don't forget free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. i'm larry kudlow. we will be right back. ilbe rig

ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you outlive your money? uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive.. confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor can get the real answers you need. well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today.

ido more with less with buless energy. hp is helping ups do just that. soon, the world's most intelligent servers, designed by hp, will give ups over twice the performance, using forty percent less energy. multiply that across over a thousand locations, and they'll provide the same benefit to the environment as over 60,000 trees. that's a trend we can all get behind.

welcome back "the kudlow report." we are back now with our distinguished group of experts, bob hormats, borden gray, paula dobriansky. you would have thought that president obama would have something to say about natural gas exports, but he happens. what is going on here? >> well, i don't know.

he certainly should talk about it. he certainly should be promoting the permitting, but i think a caution -- word of caution is useful here. this should not be in substitution for or in place of things that europe has to do in at degrees to ex-pet is indict diversification away from russian gas. part to have is so the so-called southern corridor which bob gates mentioned last sun dine one of the talk shows. europe has been kind of lacksidasical about getting that done and they should continue and really intensify their antitrust competition investigation and charges against gazprom. you know, when i was there, there were common references to the red army and what they meant was not the military, but gazprom. so, that really ought to be taken into greater account than it has been. >> bob hormats, money is leaving russia. now, the russians are trying to take their money out of the western banks in the u.s. but on the other hand, their

stock market, as you know, is plunging. their currency, the ruble, as you know, is plunging. and the general altitude is foreign investors to get out. russia doesn't have much of an economy outside of energy. so my question to you is will tough sanctions work, if we put sanctions on the banks if we put sanctions on the oligarchs, if we put sanctions on travel visas will that stuff really inflict damage on the russian economy? >> well, it will, to a degree. whether it be enough to change putin's mind about his policies is another matter, but it's a weak economy and those will have an adverse effect. but the economy is very heavily energy-dependent. and half of the government budget roughly depends on the energy sector. so if there are no sanctions on that, it will not be as substantial as it would be if there were some restrictions, but on the other hand, europe depends so heavily on russian oil and gas, it's very hard for the europeans to do that. as a result, it's much more

difficult. one thing we could do, we are thinking down the road, is speed up the negotiations on the traps atlantic trade and investment partnership that would demonstrate solidarity and help boost the european economies, not quickly but it would be a very positive medium-term signal. >> okay, but paula, you know, spring is coming, okay? spring is coming. and i read -- you tell me that europe and, including ukraine, has stockpiled a lot of natural gas. so in effect, if they cut back on the russian imports or if we sanction the russian imports, they could probably get through the next few moments. >> well, i -- let's put it this way. first of all, ukraine depends 70% of its oil supplies, natural gas supplies and energy supplies contingent coming in from russia. so, in that context, i think you say can they get through it? personally, i'm strongly in favor of this energy card. i think that it should be done regardless of the situation in

ukraine. it's something that the united states and europe should be looking at in making this change and i think it's beneficial for all. but especially because ukraine has literally 70% of its energy supplies dependent on russia, it would like to become less dependent. and so this kind of an opportunity and a, you know, path is something that really makes sense and can make a difference for ukraine. >> boyden gray, in your judgment, president and john kerry will have to make decisions monday, presumably, at least that's what they are saying now, which do you think are the toughest sanctions, banking sanctions, you know, visas, stop the oligarchs, ol leg gashing zone, big penthouse and apartments on central park west for $80 million, their kids go to american schools, stop the oligarchs from coming in here? what do you think would damage russia the most? >> i think going after the oligarchs would be very

sensitive and very effective, but i just want to go back to an earlier discussion, i think energy is even more important and there's a way to back up, to reverse the flow and provide gas from the excess stockpiles now in europe back into ukraine if russia tries to play games with ukraine. so, i think energy has got to be way up there high on the list. >> and you think that's where they will go, boyden? have you heard anything? >> well, i think they can do this. i think -- and germany is really nervous. they can turn their nukes back on, their nuclear power plants, and reduce their own need for gas imports. at least temporarily. i know they want to shut those plants down and they sort of have. but they can provide for this crisis and really take the pressure off themselves. >> they could also be more positive about fracing, which many of these countries are very tentative about doing. that would help, too. >> i get that but i just want to come back to the issue of other

sanctions, okay? to me, banking sanctions and ol leg gashi -- oligarks would be the biggest sanctions. he has a group of people around him from the mill taerpitary an intelligence side and the oligarchs are worried. you know the money is leaving russia and this could increase the outflow. couldn't sanctions on let's say the banking system really do some serious damage to russia? >> it would. first of all, it would do damage not so much the russians have pulled a lot of money out but they need to borrow in western capital market, on a regular basis, and they do and also, the oligarchs, it's not so much the amount that's involved, its are's that the oligarchs have a lot of influence in russia and if they are cut off, can't send their kids to school here or travel here or can't do business here or their money's frozen, that's big problem and they will begin to put pressure on putin. we shouldn't deceive ourselves.

he may not acquiesce to the kind of pressure that they impose on him, but that could be very helpful and i think we ought to bear that in mind as at least a possibility. they are quite influential in putin's sphere of things. >> i hope you are right. i'm reading they are not influential. >> the medium term, depends on them. >> paula, i will give you the last word. >> i was going to say on march 3rd, the russian trading systems, stocks plummeted 12%. gazprom stock went down by 15%. i'm with you. i do think that the two most potent options are the banking sanctions and, bluntly speaking, cutting off access to u.s. markets. >> right. >> and no less freezing assets. that will have an impact. >> a lot of these companies -- what is the russian stock market? okay it does trade in new york and so forth, but basically, as i understand it the russian

stock market is state-owned companies, all right? it's their stock you're talking about. so if all the investment is rushing out from for inners or if the u.s. and europe put the clamps on banking and so forth, they will really be hurt. these are the state-owned companies that basically the backbone of what's left of the russian economy. >> absolutely. and we've already seen evidence of this, as i said. if you look at the data, on march 3rd, actually this already took place, and even without the imposition of sanctions, just because of the threat and the concern that there will be sanctions. >> we have to be realistic, they are not going to move that quickly even if we do put pressure on them. this is a medium-term thing. >> okay, but bob, the stock market, in some sense, and the currency market, let's face it the ruble is a really bad currency. those markets are punishing russia right now. >> they are. >> as we talk. >> whether it is enough to get put ton change -- >> a big question. you're right. thank you, everybody, i appreciate it bob hormats,

boyden gray, paula dobriansky. appreciate the questions. to say this would be a bad week for gm would be a major understatement. today brought new accusations of defects in gm cars that could be responsible for hundreds of deaths. cnbc's phil lebeau has the latest for us on this story. >> something about being on the floor of the new york stock exchange. exchange. salesperson #1: so again, throwing in the $1,000 fuel reward card is really what makes it like two deals in one. salesperson #2: actually, getting a great car with 42 highway miles per gallon makes it like two deals in one. salesperson #1: point is there's never been a better time to buy a jetta tdi clean diesel. avo: during the first ever volkswagen tdi clean diesel

event get a great deal on a jetta tdi. it gets 42 highway miles per gallon. and get a $1,000 fuel reward card. it's like two deals in one. volkswagen has the most tdi clean diesel models of any brand. hurry in and get a $1,000 fuel reward card and 0.9% apr for 60 months on tdi models. [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.

general motors' problems could be getting worse. as we now know, more than 300

people died when their air bags failed to deployment cnbc's phil lebeau has all the latest on that still-developing story. good evening, phil. >> reporter: larry, new allegations today that general motors did not protect consumers, especially when it comes to two of the models that are at the heart of the recent recall crisis involving the automaker. the center for auto safety did an analysis of chevy cobalt crashes and sat turn ion crashes over the last ten years. according to the center for auto safety, there were 303 deaths linked to accidents where the air bags in those vehicles did not deploy. now, the center for auto safety is calling on general motors to investigate what happened with these air bags. it's also blasting the national highway traffic safety administration for not seeing defects with these air bags. we've talked with nhtsa. nhtsa says there were three separate crash investigations of accidents where gm air bags did not deploy. the results of those vexes were inconclusive. still, clarence debt low, who

runs the center for auto safety, says that gm and nhtsa should have gone further, analyzing the crash data. >> if they had done that when this database was being built, and the 2003, '4, '5 model years what they would have found was an increasing incidence of front seat occupant deaths were the air bag didn't deploy and no one asked the question, why are these air bags not deploying? let's look at the individual crashes. if they had done that, we would have had a recall years ago and we wouldn't have the controversy that we have today. >> reporter: we contacted general motors about the allegations from cas. gm says as knowledgeable observers know, fars, the fatal analysis reporting system at nhtsa, tracks raw data. without rigorous analysis it is pure speculation to attempt to draw any meaningful conclusion. shares of general motors got a bit of a bounceback today but it's bap rough couple of weeks for the automaker. the bottom line is this, while

the center for automotive safety believe there is should have been a recall involving these air bags, nhtsa, at least for now, is standing by its analysis, although has asked general motors for more information regarding the air bags in some vehicle accidents aed why it may not have deployed. lar lake, is the latest regarding general motors and the recall situation. back to you. >> all right, many thanks to phil lebeau. now, to the mystery of the missing malaysian airlines plane. today there are new reports about what may have happened to it after it lost contact with ground control. nbc news's tom costello has all the fast-breaking news. good evening, tom. >> reporter: yeah, hi, larry and it is fast breaking. here's what's going on. nbc news confirming that, in fact, this plane now, by all accounts, did do a u-turn did come back from its point where it lost contact with controllers, doubled back, went toward malaysia. then over the strait of malacca, and now you can see this massive search zone of more than 2200 nautical miles, 2500 regular

miles, and the searched pattern there is in boxes really quite large, because they are searching now into the indian oceans and even the bay of bengal. what does it tell you? it testimonies you they have no idea where this planesome the two theories now, based on sourcing that i have, is that the plane either came out of the strait of malacca there and made a left hand turn and went north into the indian ocean or went south into the indian ocean. the indian ocean, as you know, is massive, 28 million square miles. so, where is this plane? it's not an easy fix to get at all. they don't have any radar data after it left malaysian radar. what they are hoping is that some pinging that they got from the plane's automated system called acars this is a system that transmits data quite literally from the plane to the maintenance base. now, somebody apparently turned that off. and yet, the system was still

pinging, pinging the satellite, as if to say, hey, i'm here, i'm here, i'm here. the satellite was pinging the plane, i should say. well, what they are hoping is that they can hopefully figure out a way to trying an late that data. it would be like if your cell phone is pinging the tower. you're really not talking to anybody. you're not getting any data. but the cell phone is pinging the tower. it's similar analogy there. so, what they are hoping is that they can ping, they can rather use those pings to get a sense of where this plane may be, but it will only give it maybe a general direction. and you still are working off of potential thousand upon thousands of miles to try to search for this plane. so larry, on this friday night now, we are more than 24 hours after this 777 went missing, nobody has any idea where this plane is and there is a distinct possibility it will not be found. back to you. >> tom is there any theories about this u-turn? i mean, i remember in the original reporting, people talked about a u-turn, then it

kind of went away from the reporting on to other things. now you're saying it's back. any theories about how and why this u-turn occurred? >> yeah, well, candidly, the u-turn theory never went away, just that there was for a while the chinese report of potential wreckage found in the ocean which never materialized. but here's the thinking on the u-turn. somebody definitively did this. all experts now are pretty much in agreement, this is not something that happened on autopilot. somebody made a decision to turn off the transponders and turn the plane around. so, why would you do that? and for a while, we thought that maybe they turned -- maybe they were in distress, they turned the plane around, they were stuck on autopilot and the plane flew out into the indian ocean and they were in distress. there was some sort of a catastrophic event on board. but the experts are now saying, no, because there were at least two or three turns that somebody in that cockpit definitively made. so, if you turn off the traps ponder and you make definitive turns and you head out toward the indian ocean, you know, there is nothing out there in

terms of a place to go. so, why would anybody do that? was this a suicide mission? was there a hijacker? did somebody in the cockpit perhaps have another agenda? everything is on the table. >> all right. nbc news tom costello. thank you very, very much for those updates. >> my pleasure. now, folks, wither getting closer and closer to the deadline for impositioning sanctions on russia. all right u.s. and the eu put their money where their mouths are? a lot of tough talk. we are going to see if it's there. and what is the buzz in washington about? is it unified? white house, state department, national security council and the rest of it. a lot of big stories developing tonight, going to get you completely caught up to day next. stay with us. wa we're "the kudlow report." klo on my journey across america, i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat...

...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. anbe a name and not a number?tor scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today.

at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

welcome back "the kudlow report." we are closer to the monday dead lighten u.s. and europe set for sanctions against russia. question, will the white house stand its ground? cnbc's eamon javers joins us from washington. good evening. >> reporter: good evening, larry. we saw five hours of negotiations today between secretary of state john kerry and russian foreign minister lavrov today in london. all those talks, however, didn't really go anywhere. kerry came out afterwards saying

this effectively the russians have decided no to make any decision at all until after sunday's referendum in the crimea, whether crimea should be under russian control. the u.s. side expects, larry, that is going to be a strong pro-russian vote. the question is what do the russian does after that and what does the united states do in response? that's where we get into the sanctions question you are talking about? what kind of sanctions would be appropriate here and what is the u.s. and europe prepared to do here? >> lavrov said today that they will not go into the eastern ukraine even though your point is exactly right, amassing something like 80,000 troops. what's the buzz on that? anybody believe lavrov? >> one of the questions around that is what exactly are they saying when they are defining eastern ukraine? there's a little bit of parsing going on exactly what parts of it do they consider eastern ukraine and what parts of it do they consider russia? and with the crimea, that is almost the fait accompli. the russian troops are on the ground in crimea.

the question is are they going to try to formalize that and make it a formal annexation in the american side very much hoping, even going into the weekend, that the russians can be persuaded to keep that kind of loose, sort of ambiguous crimea, not clear the russians have direct control over it would be the ideal outcome for the american side at this point. but this he don't have a whole lot of leverage given that the russian boots are already on the ground there. the question how much more appetite does putin have for further interven eggs and at what point would the west have to become involved? as of now, western countries are resist the idea of sending any kind of military aid or escalating in that way. >> i don't see military aid from us or even military -- anyway, eamon javers, washington, d.c. thank you ever so much. we appreciate it >> thanks, larry. as always, thanks to eamon javers. this is one of the roughest weeks for stocks so far in 2014. and russia wasn't the only reason why. we are going to talk with our money experts next about how china is playing a major role in the markets this weekend and

more. china maybe the real problem. and just a few minutes away from convening the kudlow youth summit. we are gonna talk about laissez obamacare and the numbers, ukraine, real college kids, real college adults, on their voices. will they go and fight? i don't know. we will ask them. the kudlow youth will be back. [ male announcer ] nearly 7 million clients.

how did edward jones get so big? let me just put this away. ♪ could you teach our kids that trick? [ male announcer ] by not acting that way. it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. oh, there's a prize, all right. [ male announcer ] inside every box of cheerios are those great-tasting little o's made from carefully selected oats that can help lower cholesterol. is it a superhero? kinda. ♪

the ones that keep people out. like this one. and the ones that keep people in. like your living room. go and smell the roses! so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 a month? yup. all 5 of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're working deals all day. you get 10 gigabytes of data to share. what about expansion potential? add a line, anytime, for $15 a month. low dues, great terms. let's close! new at&t mobile share value plans our best value plans ever for business.

what a week it's been on wall street. market finishing lower the 15th straight day, what is next in the geopolitical and economic uncertainties? how do you play it? let's welcome back abigail dolittle of peak theories research, zane brown, fixed income strategist at lord abbott and john ralich. i want to begin with you, john. everybody is looking at the ukraine, what may or may not happen there the news coming out of china and you are a china expert and you teach there and whatnot, the news coming out of china's economy is uniformly bad, okay? in fact today, the prime minister of china said get ready for some bankruptcy announcements. in your judgment, john, how big a problem is china? >> well, you flow,'s some slowing in china. i expect this year, you will see

7%, maybe a little bit, 7, 7 1/2. their target is 7 1/2. there have been weak numbers coming in for exports, for retail sales, for industrial production and for fixed asset investment. but they are not weak by our standards, they are weak by chinese standards so, definitely slowing, but the big issue there is changing the structure. you know like this, larry, they have announced they are going to do some tax cut, some reduced government intervention and controls. and so they are doing some reforms that make sense, but the direction of growth is definitely lower, not higher. >> i do -- i do like the sound of that, but i just want to ask you one quick one, john. you look at the shanghai stock market, okay? the thing's been a disaster. >> yeah. >> year-to-date this year is down 8% but we went back, last two years, it's down 18%, last three years, shanghai is down 31%. i mean, investing in china has been a disaster. >> investing in china for an outside investor is always a

disaster. the return going back to 1980 is somewhere close to zero. and the reason is because they are not ready for primetime institutions. they don't have laws, courts, audits, trustable financial statements and they -- there's a lot of insider dealings. if you're an outsider, you are in trouble. i have always said the only way to invest in china is to invest in companies that know what they are doing there but that are based an governed in other places. >> right. >> and right now, those companies are mainly mineral companies wednesday. don't want to own mineral companies when growth is softening in china, so it's time to stay away from emerging markets. the fed situation makes that even more so. >> all right. abigail dolittle, you look around the globe, okay? you take russia, russia is a disaster. russia's stock market has been a disaster, even before ukraine. now it's worse. you look at this china story, you look at the emerging market story, i say the only safe place to invests america. >> hmm, interesting argument, larry, and you won't be surprised to know that i disagree with you. i just honestly, i think that

the risk here from all of these situations, continued volatility that's what 2014 has been about so far, we have seen these ups and downs but the u.s. equity markets and i think that especially this situation with the ukraine, some people are taking it seriously, i think people aren't taking it seriously as they need to experts saying the worst breach in east/west relations since the world war. i think this referendum is -- >> let's just look at this for a second. zane will jump n you really need a kind of cold war, even a world war iii to get your bear market? >> no. no. >> is that what you're pulling for? khrushchev won't help you. you need to go back to stalin. that what's it looks like to me. >> no. no. i think we actually have this mixture of events here, this situation in the ukraine, putin is definitely a wildcard. who know what is going to happen with those situations. really reason contacontagious t

housing bubble in canada could be a problem. >> haven't looked at that yet. >> need to be prepared. >> jump out of the ninth floor. >> no. no. be prepared. >> all this sounds like it is time to buy treasury, you are our bond expert. what do you make of it? >> it has great environment for bonds f it hadn't been for all the disasters in china, in ukraine, and elsewhere in emerging markets, we probably would be well over 3% on the ten-year treasury and i think it's only those situations that are keeping yields on ten-year treasuries down to 265. but once we get relief from this and i do think we will get relief from this i think that treasuries are not the place to be. this is not the time to buy ten-year treasuries at 2.65. >> why is that? why is that quickly? >> just because the only thing that's propping them up is disaster else where in the world. >> okay, so i have to take the other side -- >> this is abigail's scenario. >> does not have to -- >> a long scenario. >> does not have to be a disaster. i think that it's probably early

to say that we know that the situation in the ukraine is not going to turn into something worse that there could be real contagion. the fact that we have this rally in rates all year is telling thanks smart investors are starting to take some out of the stock market, maybe treading water right now, but we have all of these factors, a lot of uncertainty, and i think if any of them bubbing up a little bit more that we need to continue to talk about rates in terms of -- not just policy. i'm with zane on. this the only thing making people buy treasures is fear, it's gold in treasuries right now and it's no coincidence that you have crises happening in ukraine, soft china, thailand, argentina, turkey and all other places. what's happened is for five years, people have borrowed dollars to buy high-yielding emerging market assets and now their rates are rising in the u.s., they have to sell them. >> but i think -- >> and in a country with a convertible currency, that means they have a capital outflow n china, it's inconvertible, which mean it is shows up as falling

exports. the same story either way. >> zane, how low can the ten-year go at -- i know it's not permanent but 2.60, 2.65 today. how low can it go? >> it struggled to get down to 2.65. we had horrible news today, the prospect that this could really spire a.m. out of control and enter into some kind of military conflict and all we could do was be stable. so, i don't think you can even go down to 2.5% on the ten-year treasury. the same time, look at what else has gone on. yes, we have had some people sell stocks and go into bonds but they have gone into other kinds of bonds, high-yield is doing fine. lopes are doing fine. >> high yield like the stock market? all right. i got to get out of here. abigail dolittle, actually, i never -- i never met stalin. i was alive, but i never met stalin. abigail dolittle, zane brown, john rutledge. thank you all very much. now this could be the final meeting of the kudlow youth summit tonight. our college-aged crew of young adults will tackle the lousy obamacare enrollment numbers and

the ukraine crisis, joining me on set right now. stay with us on kudlow. we will be right back. l right in retirement, will you outlive your money? l right uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive.. confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor can get the real answers you need. well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today. (music) defiance is in our bones. defiance never grows old. citracal maximum. calcium citrate plus d. highly soluble, easily absorbed.

for the average person, many folks who don't have health insurance initially, you know, they are going to have to make some soils choices and they might end up having to switch doctors. >> oh, boy. now he says it. any way, that was president obama talking today about his constantly changing and very confusing health care law. but here's the most important question. how do young people feel about

it? all right, who better to ask than our very own kudlow youth summit. tonight, welcome michael mazell, student and democrat from nyu, i got it right. alex smith, chair of the republican national committee and sophie miller, boston university, college republicans executive director. michael, lit me begin with you. i think the whole thing has fallen apart. the individual mandate is gone. and they never got the volume, not even close the volume of young people to contribute to make this thing work. why didn't the young people sign up? why not? >> well, i think that we still have two weeks until the final deadline. there is that period of time that we have for young people to sign up. maybe -- maybe the rollout isn't the way that the administration had initially planned. >> did you sign up? >> i have not signed up. i'm still on my parents' plan. >> okay. okay. >> that being said, i grew up in

center city, philadelphia. i experienced several demographics that were disenfranchised and that i can only imagine the next generation will appreciate the frame work of affordable health care. >> well. okay, if the's really insurance, not an hmo. sophie miller, how do you see it? >> i think that obamacare is not something that youth agree w it's not something that the country agrees with and it's not something we believe should be in place. it is not something we wanted here in the first place. >> i mean it just interests me and you two are on college campuses, you're not anymore, but they expected about 40% of the enrollment to be young people. none of these numbers are running more than 20 to 25%. so in a sense, that doomed obamacare from the start. now, let me just ask you, not just about u, but in boston general, what do people stay in what do your friends say, you know, other schools? what's the gossip? what's at buzz? >> my friends don't agree with it. my friends don't believe in obamacare. of course, might be part of the minority. >> but they like owe mamba but don't like obamacare is that fair? >> depends on who you are

talking to. >> i'm going to say in boston, god forbid, most kids are going to be democrat? >> yes. >> moves are going to be for obama. what i'm trying to glean is do they like the president generally but not his health care plan, is that the split? >> i would say it's the opposite. more people like obamacare than obama. >> areal? that's big -- that is a very big change. all right. sophie what do you bay is that? i bet that surprises you? >> well, 56% of the country young americans disagree with this law and it's the president's signature legislative achievement. so what we are really seeing young people are rejecting something they simply cannot afford and in some cases, seeing premiums are rising up to 200% for young people, easy for young people to take the $95 penalty kick in on april 1st than to pay for premiums and deductibles. >> your he alex. i got that wrong. you're sophie, i got that right. you're michael, i got that right. one last thing, with this new -- i'm not sure if nip understands

it but as of yesterday, a week ago, the quote unquote, hardship provision, plus people that are renewing canceled policies, both may never get signed up, they may never have to sign up. that basically dooms the individual mandate. i think that dooms the whole plan. do you think the next six months, next 12 months, the whole plan's going down? >> i do not. i do not. i think that as the conversation expands from the 24-hour news cycle, where there's maybe a winner for proponents of the law on one day and a loser the other day, and the longer term, people will appreciate the framework and that's my argument. >> yeah, but, well, okay. that's an interesting point. i think people want to change the whole bloody thing. i'm not saying everything in it's wrong, all right? particularly regarding sick people, i think that's the very important part of the deal. i think people want to rewrite, do this whole thing over again, sick to death of it i think it's going to cost the democrats a lot in the elections, but you know, could i be dead wrong. sophie, let me change gears just

a little bit. what do you make of the ukraine and vladimir putin and all this going on? >> well, right now, we see the prospects for sanctions and i do think that sanctions are an effective tool of diplomacy but i think our focus needs to be on deescalation, because we have bigger problems to tackle, like in syria and in iran and ultimately, we want the russians to be a partner in those endefense, so, while i don't agree with the russians invading the sovereignty of ukraine, i do hope that we see a reduced -- >> nobody wants a war. >> tensions. >> people are sick of wars. alex smith, i just got to tell you, all right you know i'm a kritic of obama on almost everything, but i have backed him, hook, line and sinker on this. vladimir putin is the enemy. he is the devil here, not obama. however, many of my conservative friends have spent 90% of their time attacking the president were do you come out on this? >> i think that americans and particularly young americans, they want to see greater leadership in the world. right now, they are looking at a world where they see america's position weakened and i think

that what they are looking for from the president is leadership on this issue and i don't think a lot of them are finding it. so, i think that they are looking for some -- some tougher talk and some tougher action. >> may get it monday. you know, michael, again, i'm not an obama fan. i mean, if he's right on something, i'm gonna say he is right. what i've heard so far, the discussion about sanctions, i think that's correct. it is very diplomatic, all right. things are gonna -- but we can't let putin walk wherever he wants to walk in europe. what are you hearing on nyu? who is back willing the president? who wants to do something to stop vladimir putin? >> i'm glad you brought that up, for two reasons, there are two points i want to raise. one is i was born in 1991. most of our generation was born in a post-cold war era. so, these issues respect as big to us, right? they are not at the forefront of our radar. and the second point that i want to make is that our generation also is now favoring diplomatic solutions rather than military intervention, which was a very cold war mentality.

>> i think that's right. nobody wants war. nobody wants war. i think that's fair enough. i don't want another war. anyway, our youth panel, thank you very much for coming in. i appreciate t alex smith, sophie miller, michael maisel that's it for tonight's show. thanks for watching. i'm larry kudlow. be back on monday. beack on mond. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. iwe don't back down. we only know one direction: up so we're up early. up late. thinking up game-changing ideas,

like this: dozens of tax free zones across new york state. move here. expand here. or start a new business here... and pay no taxes for 10 years. with new jobs, new opportunities and a new tax free plan. there's only one way for your business to go. up. find out if your business can qualify at start-upny.com [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai,

aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. spcan go 795 highway milesen, on a single tank. huh...s so you could drive from los angeles all the way philadelphia with just three stops for fuel. that's just a hop, skip, and a jump. try that in another midsize sedan. it's more of a hop... a skip... a jump... a leap... maybe a schlep... probably a hurdle... a little bit of a trek... avo: during the tdi clean diesel event, get a $1,000 fuel reward card and 0.9% apr for 60 months.

"antiques roadshow," you've brought your treasures to them. >> andy warhol. this is a classic. >> now, for the first time, collectibles experts leigh and leslie keno are coming to you. >> it's a mission to find things in their home. oh, my gosh. these are valuable. >> if you don't know what you've got... >> you know what this is? >> no. >> this is incredible. >> ...these wonder twins will. >> tens of millions of dollars. >> the keno brothers will use cutting-edge technology to tell the fakes... >> i'm not sure it's real. >> ...from the finds. >> $100,000. >> everyone needs the money... >> there's no work. >> i have cancer in three places. >> the entire roof in our home caved in completely. >> ...and their loved ones want them to sell.