welcome to "on the money", i'm becky quick. lessons in leadership, how former ge ceo jack welch says you can get ahead in your job. >> one word, overdeliver. >> the markets take a breather this week. is it anything more than a pause? why everyone is so nervous about china all of a sudden. seeing green for st. patrick's day, why irish whiskey may replace scotch as the drink of choice. does the name mcsorley's mean anything to you? "on the money" starts right now.

>> here's a look at what's making news as we head into a new week. the big chill in the u.s. economy may be thawing, sales rose 0.3% last month. that was better than economists had expected and it could show a rebound from a weather related mid weather slump. consumers make up more than two thirds of the u.s. economy. a surprise sell-off late this week although there was no shortage of reason, ranges from fears about china's economy and tensions in ukraine. the dow fell 200 points on thursday, the fourth consecutive down day. the markets continued to fall on friday. amazon may have the lowest prices around but raising prices for amazon prime, $99 from $79. it allows for free shipping and streaming and borrowing of kindle books. it may be hard to believe, but an airline is offering

something for nothing, starting next month united will let users watch movies for free on their ios devices. you have to download the app and watch through that. the economy may be getting out of the deep freeze, joining us now to explain the impact, joe la volavorgna. >> adam, let's talk about this. we're five years into a bull market and there have been jitters this week, do you think what's happening in china, ukraine, with the economy in the u.s.? >> i think it's probably u.s. first, china second then the emerging markets third because they are really the order of what impacts corporate earnings. what we learned so far since five years ago, don't panic on u.s. equities unless you're afraid the earnings will decline a lot. >> we did see a decline of more

than 6%. could it all gang up on us? >> obviously there's a risk. our view is that the market never goes down 10% or more unless people are afraid of earnings. all of the work focuses on what could increase volatility. our base case is 8% earnings growth for s&p because you have generally an improving economy and that's morgan stanley. >> joe, let's talk about that. the bad weather we've seen has people trying to figure out how much of the bad numbers are simply a one-off. how much of this is a serious decline in the economy? >> i would say a three-off because we had very bad weather in december and january and february. i've been a big bull on growth and agree with adam's assessments of stocks and how they'll behave. the issue or argument we make about weather, there are series that actually ask people, did you have a job? yes. did you go to work because of bad weather? >> no. did you work part-time because of bad weather? >> yes, in fact, in february,

almost 7 million people could not work full-time because of the weather. this isn't joel will lavorgna g you an excuse. weather was a factor which means there should be a snap back at some point in the spring. >> in terms of this bull run, how long would you expect? five years getting long in the tooth. >> we've been debating whether it could last as long as 2020 this time. because you didn't have a strong recovery off the bottom, more of a muted recovery off the bottom. it could last longer. here's the key feature. companies basically have pushed out financial obligations for three or four years at the minimum. very few companies if any in the s&p 500 can even go bankrupt. they don't owe it to 2017 or 2018 or 2019. it's hard to make that big top of the cycle call unless debt is due and has trouble refinancing it or unless you get a collapse in earnings.

we said not that frothy on the coast. cycle could last longer than people think. >> adam is exactly right. business cycles do not die of old age and equities do not peak until the next recession. if you look at profit margins using gdp, they've peeked typically 2 to 3 years before recession. margins are mean reverting and multiples are expanding and stocks are still going up. unless you think there's a recession around the corner, equities and risk assets should do okay. where is the imbalance in the economy? inflation is low. we have not overbilled on inventory. these are the things that make us more upbeat that the cycle continues. >> let me ask you about this. if the economy is doing so well and maybe we're finally hitting this breakout point, why has the 10-year note still yielding below 2.7%. >> it is. the fed is telling you it's not raising rates for a long time. there's too much carry in the market. forward yields are higher.

you're finding a negative carry game which is a way of saying if you think rates will go higher, it better happen soon because you have to pay the difference in financing cost to make money. if the fed is not moving rates for pay long time, then it's -- rates will stay low. when they do move, becky, as we saw last year, they go up really quickly over a very short period of time. >> you're talking about a snap. >> you're not looking for another 30%. what are the sectors and opportunities that are the best places. >> biggest one is overweight health care, underweight staples. generally you have a better estimate achievability and more cash flow and more cash return to shareholder and cheaper stocks. the second trade we like tech over discretionary. i'm into this analytics cloud changing the way companies are operating and chemicals over energy and industrials. those are the main trades. >> thank you both very much for joining us today.

>> thanks for having me. >> up next "on the money", how can you take your career to the next step? we ask jack welsh, the man today's ceos try to em late. he says it's as simple as being yourself. >> it is such a value that people lose sight of. >> later, irish whiskey sales are up 400% in the last decade alone.

his ideas on business grew general electric into a juggernaut and management style has taught in business schools across the country. the chairman of the general electric and jack welch joins us with lessons in leadership. thanks for being here. >> so great to see you becky.

>> we would those at home who would love to ask what they are doing in their own careers? how can i get promoted? how can i get a raise? what's the best piece of advice you would give to someone who would love to tap into you? >> the one i always good students is, one word, overdeliver. if i ask you to do something, i've already got in mind what i'm thinking i'd like you to do. you got to do that plus make me smarter. so the job of any working professional out there, who wants to move up in the ranks, always do more than you're asked for. don't just do the homework assignment. do more. >> you have students right now in the management institute and you do q and as with them and meet with them regularly.

what kind of questions do you get from them? >> my boss is a jerk. what do i do? and i talk -- that's one. what do you tell them for a question like that? >> i'll tell them, you've got to decide if you want to take on the issue, if you've got a boss and your boss is not recognizing your contributions, you've got to have the self-confidence to get in and say, what do i have to do? what am i doing wrong? bring candor to the party right away. you have to have the self-confidence to pack your bags and try it somewhere else. going around your boss is a losing strategy. it's not going to work. you've got to make peace there by again, overdelivering. if you're giving a manager above you, making them smarter every

day and making them look good with their bosses, the world will turn out pretty good for you. >> let's take these lessons and apply them to some situations we can look at right now in business. general motors is having an incredibly tough time. facing a recall of over a million vehicles, something it now looks like they knew about for over 13 years and tied to the deaths of 12 individuals. there's a new ceo in charge. what should she do at this point? >> got to bring the team together and say, we really blew it here. what went wrong. let's get everything on the table. let's be sure there are no hidden agenda items here. let's tell everybody everything that's happened. what we know now and let us go fix it and let's get it right with our customers. she's got a clean bill of health and she doesn't own that

problem. she owns the fix though. they owns what they look like going forward. how they are going to behave. it's a new gm they like to say. be a new gm now in this crisis and show yourself to be an open constructive company that wants to take care of the problems and fix them. >> let me also ask you about tesla. tesla is now just learning that new jersey is going to be the third state that won't allow them to sell directly to the public without going through a dealership. what should tesla do right now? >> well, obviously they've got to deal with the loss and comply even if they don't buy into it. now, tesla had a better mouse track here. they had a fix to a two-step process that was revolutionary. and with this new car that

everyone seems to be very attracted to with great consumer ratings, they have almost a cult like following now. i've got people where i live now where people all drive in them, love them in florida. they've got to deal with it. the political forces that have overtaken good logic and good business have a leg up in new jersey and i guess two other states. for now i'm sure people are going across the border to the next state and doing things. that's a temporary fix. obviously these have been -- this is a blow to their strategy. and i think with this guy who is undaunted by anything. >> elon musk, yeah. >> who would have thought you could sell a new car company and sell 35,000 cars right now and have such incredible approval

rating of his car? and so we'll see what his next move is. >> jack, thank you so much for joining us. >> thanks a lot. great being here. do one thing when you're talking management, be sure you tell every ceo out there that you're talking to, think about the fun has been sucked out of business since the recession, what are you doing to put fun back into business? and two, what's your growth strategy? does everybody come to work thinking about how do we grow? if you do that, this economy will read back a lot faster. >> thanks a lot. >> up next we're "on the money" planning to toast the irish this st. patrick's day. we're looking at business behind the bar and in the bottle. cheers to some of the emerald isles most resilient exports. if you wear a denture,

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>> whiskey means water of life in irish, that is fitting as this liquor sees a spirited rise in popularity and sales. ray is here for a look at this leader in the spirits industry. just in time for st. patrick's day, ray, thank you so much for coming in. >> thanks for having me. >> i can't believe we're doing this today. >> it's good for you, full of vitamins. >> i'm ready to go on this. let's talk about sales. why is this taking off? >> there's a number of reasons.

one there's such an interest in cocktail culture right now. it's a little madmen driven. there's that and younger people are switching to brown spirits and irish was a forgotten category. >> why not scotch? >> scotch is more saturated in the market. irish was really honestly a little bit forgotten, gone up more than 400% since 2002. just in the past like 2012 growth was 23%, 2013, 18%, it keeps going like that. >> i will warn you, i don't ever drink hard alcohol. i'm a wine drinker so -- >> this is bush mills, one of the two big brands. jamison's is number one. and classic irish whiskey. >> small sip, don't gul p it. it's softer than scotch, less aggressive, believe it or not and doesn't have the smokey intensity that scotch has. >> i'm warm all over already.

>> you'll get even warmer with green spot. >> what is green spot. >> just launching in the u.s., it's been kind of a cult item in ireland for pay long time. single pot irish whiskey. >> what does that mean? >> rather than a continuous column still. malted and unmalted barley. very unusual. >> little softer, little richer. >> although i do feel i'm growing hair on my chest as i do this. >> i hope you're not. >> me too. >> irish doesn't do that to you -- it makes you glad and happy and warmer. >> the last one, ne poeg castle. >> that smells lighter. >> it's a little less round -- >> that tastes really different. >> it's a little more wood character and little more -- heads more to the scotch side. >> can they keep up with

production on this? >> they can. with jamison's, they put away, put a lot of whiskey to age in aep anticipation of building a market. you're seeing small artisanal producers popping up. >> thank you so much. i appreciate it, wow. from whiskey to beer. we're taking a look at an iconic name in the bar business. mcsorley's old ale house in new york city. >> there's too much history to absorb in an hour. you need a week. >> mcsorley's sort of a drinking museum, one of the oldest irish bars in the united states. this new york business stayed consistent since 1854. >> that's the same key. >> same key and original doors are still there. >> you can start on one side of the wall and go from 1850 and come up to the present day.

>> serving just the house ale in white and dark they didn't allow women until 1970s and no lady's room until 1986. they found success for 160 years. >> joining me now are the owners of mcsorley's matthew and his daughter theresa. thank you for being here so much. >> thank you. >> i love mcsorley's and love everything you guys do. this is something that you started working there back in the 1960s and owned it since the 1970s, how do you keep business going and keep it as hot as ever? >> we got a wonderful following, it's easy, tremendous people, great people. >> the environment in the bar, they come in and stay? >> people change when they get to mcsorley's. >> how? >> they seem to be more relaxed and in the mood to enjoy themselves. >> theresa, you are the first woman to start working behind the bar. >> he kind of told me i have

what it takes and all girls in the family and somebody should learn the business god forbid something happen to him. i always had an interest and love it. >> what does it take? >> i don't know what it is, but she's got it. i'm just glad that one of my daughters have it. yeah. >> you all serve mcsorley's exclusively behind the bar. why? >> that's a tradition. it's always -- used to brew their own ale on the premises then brewery -- had to be done by a brewery and that's pretty much tradition really. >> tradition, that the same way you don't have a cash register or computer going? that's hard to imagine such a successful small business being run without a computer or cash register? >> we keep the ale flowing. you have two products and it's busy so you just -- >> is that the secret of the success, keep it simple.

>> yes, it works for us. >> simplicity. you can't survive on what's lost. you in the commodity business should know that. >> thank you both so much for being here and for talking to us about such a wonderful establishment, mcsorley's. >> thank you. >> we appreciate it. up next, the news that will have an impact on the money. and you want to win a billion dollars? how the march madness bracket could pay off big time. here's how the stock market ended the week.

here are stories that may move the markets and impact your money. we'll get earnings from nike and tiffany. tuesday kicks off the federal reserve's two-day meeting with the press conference scheduled for wednesday. on tuesday, housing starts for february. michelle obama will travel to china to promote education. on thursday we'll be saying bye to winter and hello to spring, at least according to the calendar. here's news for sports fans, oracle of omaha are teaming up to offer $1 billion for the perfect march madness bracket. >> warren came to detroit and we were touring through the city and everything going on with a lot of exciting things, on the

way out he did the clumbow thing, one more thing, i've been thinking about this concept of ensuring a billion for the tournament. would one of your companies be interested in it? >> if there is a winner, they will pay up, insuring the contest for quicken. the winner can get a lump sum payment of $25 million. the entry deadline is thursday. good luck. i'm becky quick. thanks for joining me. next week, top tips for tax season. we're "on the money." have a great st. patrick's day, and we'll see you here next weekend. if you wear a denture, take this simple test. press your tongue against it, like this. it moves! do you feel it? it can happen with every denture. these movements may irritate your gums. but you don't have to bear with it.

you can try fixodent plus gum care. thanks to its formula, your gums become one with your denture. this helps stop movement and helps prevent gum irritation so you can keep enjoying life. [ apple crunches ] fixodent. and forget it.

>> okay, here we go. >> tonight on the profit, i meet michael and tina sena... >> three, one, three. >> experienced trainers who own a fitness studio. >> chest up. atta boy! >> the instruction is first-rate. >> nice, high thighs. >> but the business? well, that needs to be whipped into shape. you're not focusing on everything over here. >> i'm telling you, i did what i thought i could do. >> michael refuses to bring in workout equipment... >> i just don't want to be like every other gym. >> i wouldn't work out there. which holds back membership. >> i may challenge him. >> what we're doing isn't working. >> that's such crap, and you know it. >> but it's his ego that may ultimately bring down this business... >> nobody would recognize her name. they would recognize my name first. >> and possibly even his relationship. >> since we got married, you're always worried about your own identi