welcome to squawk box on cnbc. happy st. patrick's day to you. i'm becky quick along with brian sorkin. i reminded the kids to wear green and went upstairs and forgot. brian has a good excuse for why he's not. >> yeah, because i do this thing on cnbc digital which uses a green screen, so i can't wear green. then i become invisible. if i wore a green shirt, i would have no torso. that said, sullivan, i think it stands to reason that i'm irish enough. >> we already had this conversation this morning. yeah. >> brian, welcome. andrew, welcome back. >> thank you. i missed you guys. you did a lot last week. you had buffett last week, a huge show. and march madness and these brackets, we'll talk about what these seeds may mean for the

billion-dollar bracket offer a little bit later. >> are you playing in this? are we allowed to play? >> yeah, we are allowed to play, i think. >> because i signed up. >> i'm in, baby. >> you're in? >> you can sign up until the 20th. >> if i win the billion, i'm buying a massive evaluation. i'll pay you 100 times. >> i know some people and we can work something out. >> you and me. we'll buy county carrie. i like that. the people of crimea vote to secede from ukraine and join russia. the u.s. warns of sanctions and the markets move higher. the futures this morning at least here right now are indicated up by almost 100 points. s&p futures are indicated up by better than 10 points above fair value. the major european averages at least in the early trading are also indicated higher. the biggest gains in france where the cac is up by .70%. in russia, the benchmark index there is also trading higher up

by 2.5%. that may surprise people who have been expecting at least the moscow stocks to sell off. and certainly the ruble to drop a little bit, too. we'll get more right now from the region, ian williams is joining us from crimea. ian? >> reporter: good morning to you. well, the crimean parliament voted a short while ago. in the wake of that vote to formally request moscow to join the russian federation. and that request could be heard as early as this coming friday. so really moscow is likely to fast-track the annexation of this peninsula. now the vote was overwhelming according to the vote committee here, 97% voting in favor of joining russia. we visited some polling stations yesterday where there was a loot of enthusiasm and big crowds, but also a significant minority here did largely boycott the poll being very worried about

what the union with russia could bring in villages where they dominate and the polling stations were empty. but here, the news of the vote and the overwhelming vote in favor of russia triggered massive celebrations last night in the central lennon square with big concerts, people driving around waving russian flags. now, of course, the action moves to moscow to see how quickly vladimir putin will respond to this. and, of course, the western capitals, which must now consider whether to impose sanctions as they have threatened. back to you. >> ian, thank you very much. ian williams. we'll get a check on the markets this morning. you saw the dow futures are a tick higher by triple digits at this point. if you look at what's been happening with the ten-year note, 2.671%. you are still looking at a yield below 2.7%. that's where a lot of the panic has played out where you saw yields dropping as bond prices

rose on some of these things. gold was much higher last week. the russian stocks today up by better than 2.5% we just saw, but they were down 4% last week. maybe that's part of what's happening. the ruble is a little weaker this morning down about 0.3% against the dollar. we'll look at oil prices quickly, there's the ruble, yeah, okay. so the dollar/ruble is showing a bit of a gain. that's a drop of about .30% for the ruble. take a look at what's been happening with the dollar overall, here's wti crude which is sitting down 22 cents to 98.67. the next that we'll look at is the dollar, i believe. currencies are showing that the dollar is up across the board. euros trading at 138.91. the pound showing the dollar stronger and the dollar/yen at 101.76. and gold prices we talked about yesterday, which we talked about earlier this morning, if you were looking at gold prices last week, there was a steady climb as some concerns around the

globe, you can see things barely budging this morning, 1,379.10 and ounce. >> i did forget that i brought in gifts. the traditional st. patrick's day gift, russian rubles. >> let me see. >> so here you go. these are from you. that's 100 ruble. 30 to 1, $3. >> i have some swiss franks, i'll trade you. >> i would rather have the franks. >> i'll give you swiss franks. >> i would rather have baltimore franks. i'm hungry. >> this is $3 and change. >> thank you. >> give it to your kids to show them russian money. >> i have $5 in bitcoin, actually, in my e-mail. i'm very excited. >> have you noticed the worst currencies in the world are still better looking than our money. we have the ugliest money. there you go. my gift to you. >> thank you. i do like the new $100 bills, though. >> go shopping. >> thank you, brian. >> we have some corporate news this morning.

this deal was not transacted in either bitcoin nor in rubles. vodafone reaching a deal to buy ono for $10 billion. that deal will boost the british tell con giant. take a look at vodafone shares. this company has a lot of cash on hand now after that transaction earlier this year when it sold half of verizon wireless that it did not own. it is now trying to get some of that money back with some big deals. and chinese ecommerce giant alibaba picks wall street for its ipo ending months of speculation about where the company would go public. the win by new york seen as a loss for other markets, specifically hong kong. alibaba is now in discussion with six banks to underwrite the deal that could be valued at $15 billion. get this, analysts have put a staggering $140 billion valuation on alibaba. and this deal is huge for yahoo!

because they own 24% and japan's softbank which controls 37%. >> can we just do a little thing, can we put up shares of yahoo! for a second? if you look at the market capital of yahoo! it is now $37 billion. the valuation we are talking about is $140 billion. most analysts i have seen now close to $153 billion. that means that basically yahoo! was only valued, take alibaba out, it adds a couple billion bucks. i don't understand. >> yahoo! japan and now alibaba. so if you buy yahoo! you're buying asia. you're buying japan and now you're buying the stake in alibaba. >> correct. >> which our viewers probably don't know what alibaba is. i call it the amazon of china but that's incorrect. i want to buy 18 chainsaws made from a chinese manufacturer, whatever it is i met the founder

years ago at tavern on the green when that existed in central park. he's like, oh, i have this new company alibaba. i said, this is never going to work. never been more wrong about anything. >> we saw him two weeks ago in new york. and he, well, anyway, the point that i was just going to make is that -- >> you have to imagine that everyone is courting him at this point to try to get a part of the ipo. >> there's six potential underwriters trying to do this crazy thing. they are not claiming anyone is the lead underwriter. we'll see if that happens in truth, but i think the larger question is what this means for yahoo! in that do they sell their shares, how do you actually value yahoo!. and if the price actually makes sense right now, it's an indictment of yahoo! itself. >> a yes for you, what are the investment banking capabilities of the chinese national banks? china construction, i have no idea. >> they can't -- look, the thing -- >> could they do it? >> well now they really can't do it because they are not doing it in china. >> no, but if you were going to underwrite, you want to be a

partner in the asian markets. i don't know what their capabilities are. >> i don't know, but part of the issue is, now that hong kong is out of the game, but hong kong took itself out of the game eight months ago when we had this whole conversation. >> but they didn't -- they said they weren't going to do it the way they wanted, so they -- >> alibaba wanted to control the company once it is public. hong kong said no. and that's the end of that. >> if you are going to ask a girl out and you know she's going to say no, what do you tell your friends? i would never go out with her. because you don't want to face the rejection. and part of me wonders that's what china's game is. hong kong, right, oh, we're kind of taking ourselves out. if you got indication you are not going to win anyway, just act like you don't want it. >> no, these guys were going on a date. no, this was like the guy wanted the girl and the girl didn't want the guy. that's what happened here. i'm just telling you what happened here. >> that's not the only china-related story. social media company weibo is

offering its shares also in the united states. now weibo often called the twitter of china launched four years ago by a parent company as a microblogging service like twitter. remember, twitter has been blocked in china since 2009. >> and the china news continues this morning. twitter's ceo dick costello is taking a strip to china and described as a personal tour to learn more about china's thriving technology sector. they have 600 million internet users but they banned twitter in 2009. they are not expected to ask chinese authorities to lift the twitter ban. twitter flatly rejected the possibility of opening an office in china any time soon. shares, though, of twitter are on a wild ride over the past year. now 52.84. still above the ipo, but down significantly from that high plus the $75 a share. in other corporate news this morning, honda is recalling nearly 900,000 odyssey minivan that is could catch fire.

the automaker says from 2005 to 2010 the odysseys that were built in alabama have a fuel pump part that could crack and cause a fuel leak increasing the risk of fire. the company says it has no reports of fires or injuries related to this problem at this point. honda says the proper repair parts won't be available until the summer because they have so many that they are recalling. in the meantime, it will provide interim parts to customers who will be notified beginning in april. it is not just me. >> it happens, we can have fires in other places, too. >> no fire is related to this, but part of it is if you take it into the car wash, some of the chemicals could be acidic enough to create things, but no problem with me. i never go into the car wash. >> did you see the musk statement from new jersey? they put out one of the great lette letters of all time. >> they feel like they were lied

to under false pretenses so they feel like it was a bait and switch. >> this is not new jersey or other states against tesla. tesla is the bad guy. if you are a gm dealer and you look at tesla selling cars like that, you are thinking, why am i buying 150 cars, carrying the inventory risk putting them on my lot, i will just do the tesla model. create a showroom, you order it and test drive it. if you like it n a week it will be drivered to you. i think dealers are terrified, probably rightly so, that the tesla model may work but then what happens to the entire dealer model? it goes away. >> why are we protecting the dealer model exactly? >> i don't want that we are protecting the dealer model. >> and the government is -- >> the states are going along with it in new jersey, texas, arizona. >> new york maybe. why are we protecting the dealers? i'm sure every dealer is -- >> who is protecting the

dealers? this is somebody against tesla. nobody is against tesla but the model they are trying to create. >> but the states have to offer licenses to have a dealership. you need to have a license. >> geographic protection. >> right. so the state is essentially protecting the dealership model. >> i understand what you're saying. it is not targeted at tesla but tesla is the only company -- >> people view tesla as the bad guy for selling the electric car. >> meaning that actually selling it directly is the better way, in this case there's going to be some real issues. >> the dealerships happen to have -- >> they imploy thousands and thousands of people. >> but they happen to be major donors to political members in the states. >> i'm saying you understand why the dealer's groups are coming out swinging against tesla. >> so now in new jersey, they are going to have showrooms. you talked about this last week. >> galleries.

>> where you can't buy the car. >> and you can't ask on pricing, i believe. >> but can they have an ipad in the corner to go buy it there or do you have to go out of the building like a physical presence? >> you do it like a price is right. you give a number and they say higher or lower and you have to do it within 30 seconds. >> yeah, i think they are taking it out, but there are some questions whether they will keep it. >> this is the alamo for tesla. new jersey is the alamo. if they feel on the legal challenge, every other state is going to come out to be emboldened by the new jersey decision. this is a huge deal in new jersey for tesla. >> i have not seen the entire statement put out, i saw snip-its with it. is it a long let her? >> it is a brilliant letter. if you didn't love ian before this letter, you will realize him after. you realize the politics and realize why there were politics to begin with. the idea of protecting all of these dealerships originally was because there was a view that

the big manufacturers were going to come in and try to cut them out. that's what this was all about. so there was actually -- >> he was concerned when they did gm and restructured the entire thing. they went through this and decided which dealers have to stay. >> we had this fight, people forget, with sad you weturn, ac. there was a bit of a debate. >> in any event, it's a story continuing. we'll keep you up-to-date on the latest. in the meantime, it's a big week for janet yellen. she will give her first conference after the two-day fed meeting that kicks off tomorrow. the fed is expected to stay on course for the taper plan. tomorrow the consumer price index will be released. on thursday jobless claims and existing home sales. but the big deal is going to be tuesday and then wednesday when we actually get that fed decision. >> okay. >> that happens on your show. >> yeah, it should be an interesting day on "street signs," 2:00 eastern time. i'm catching flak for not wearing green.

>> it's only 6:15. you are going to start flaking now? >> well, i don't get paid extra to come in on "squawk box" so my only pay is to tease "street signs" two or three times. we talked to the director of russian studies at the american enterprise, good morning to you. what a mess it appears to me that we have made, help us just play out what you think is going to happen right now in terms of what putin's next steps are to the extent that he has some, and where do you think we are from the u.s. perspective, do something or not about all of this? >> well, i think putin has kind of two columns of numbers in his head constantly updating, the debit side and the credit side. let me start with the credit side. i think he is trying to restore this influence inside the country because he defined the ukrainian revolution as the conflict between the west and

russia only. that was his definition. so when the revolution seceded, he felt that he needed to recover to restore, he felt like he needed to respond. there are three actors he's aiming at, ukraine, of course, which he tries to contain and destabilize. the west, that he tries to prevent from proposing sanctions and intimidate, but most importantly the russian political base that he's bay playing to. so if he feels that crimea is enough, that he's done enough to recover the initiative to staunch the wound to narrow the damage, i think he may pause, at least. if he feels he needs to go further, i think they will start, you know, impercenting into ukraine in the mainland. >> so, if you're obama at this point, i mean, i shouldn't be editorializing, but i feel like we are in a box and i don't know how you get out of the box, do

you have a way out of the box? >> well, i think the administration sensibly offers a two-track policy. on the one hand, i think they are going to impose sanctions in conjunction with the eu as early as a few hours from today. but at the same time they constantly offer russia a way out trying to say, okay, this is the sanctions we could impose more severe sanctions, but that the point this is where we'll stop, please let's negotiate. and more importantly, mr. putin, please negotiate with the new government in kiev and see where that takes you. >> is this a real election or do you think the whole thing was a -- >> it's completely invalid. the opposition was not given any voice in the public media. people were intimidated. they had, like, i think seven or eight days to put the referendum together. it's totally bogus. >> totally bogus. and when putin runs around

saying this is like kosovo, you say what? >> well, there are all kinds of complicated issues here, but essentially it's under the guns of those unmarked black mask troops, that's a travesty. >> you came back in six months, what would the conversation be? >> the conversation will be that the russian ruble is down, that the russian economy in the stock market is severely down, but putin is holding firm buzz that's the only thing working for him and his regime right now inside the country. >> we'll leave the conversation there. doctor, thank you for joining us this morning. appreciate your perspective. when we come back, march mad sps here. time to fill out the brackets l. any work get done once the games start later this week? brian already filling out the brackets waiting for a billion bucks. i'm hoping he wins. also, guinness making a very controversial decision a day before today's big st. patrick's day celebration. we'll tell you all about it and what they are not doing when

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welcome back. time for the executive edge. big companies have appeared to hand out smaller increases in compensation to their executives in 2013 than in 2012. that's because of grant stock options according to an annual review of regulatory filings.

based on the information from 46 company that is filed annual compensation reports by march 11th, the medium increase for a ceo was 1% to 8.64 million. that's right, 1% small increase, but to 8.64 million. that was a slower rate of increase than this group of 46 received for 2012 when the media ceo pay raise rose to 8.53 million. the media compensation for ceos and fortune 500 companies received more in 2012. >> when was the last time you heard a ceo that had to negotiate with his board for his income? >> well, i imagine that's sort of off-the-record type stuff, right? >> it doesn't happen, though. >> the compensation committee, right? >> the compensation committee just sets it. what gets me about this, and maybe i'm happy or sad, i don't know how to feel about this, but when i think of ceo compensation, and we talked about this before, the thing

that always gets me in most up stances, take the ceo out, if you are going to hire somebody, there's a conversation about what is the least i can possibly pay you for you to work for me and be incentiveized to stay and do a great job. that's not the conversation you have when you talk about these numbers. >> i think the ceo pay has gone off the charts, kind of like baseball players. robinson cano's best year was babe ruth's 22-year lifetime average, okay? and now every other player says, look at this guy making this, that's what ceos are doing. this guy is making this and i have to make this. it's stupid. >> the market players, there's another team that wants the player, so they are battling for the player. that makes sense to me. >> you create that demand, right? i'm getting lured, you can always find somebody with perceived interest. >> you can. but oftentimes, look at the people who go from being the coo

to being the ceo, do you think they were going to get the job with the other company so quickly? i just lost a lot of ceos who watch the show. becky? let's talk about a little controversy on this st. patrick's day. guinness is withdrawing its sponsorship of the parade after two other beer makers did the same because of the parade's refusal to allow gay and lesbians to march. in a statement from the company, guinness has a strong history of supporting diversity and being an advocate for equal for all. we were hopeful that the policy exclusion would be reversed for this year's parade as this is not coming to pass, guinness has withdrawn its participation. we'll continue to work with community leaders to ensure future parades have an inclusionary policy. on friday heineken said it would not participant in the upcoming st. patrick's day parade celebration. gentlemen, this happened as bars started pulling some of the brands from their shelves. >> i want to know, who is running this parade?

who decided that the gays and lesbians can't march? or are they asking you to march separate in this? >> irish catholicism runs deeply and that is counter to the church's teachings. i'm sure that's where the push-back lies. obviously, this is an issue that -- >> but does the church run the parade? >> no, but i think it's very heavily catholic organizations that are involved with running it. maybe you can look that up, andrew. >> i think she just asked you to look it up. >> i think she did. >> this is what happens when you ask a question, you have to do work during the commercial break. beg guinness can do what it wants. >> many americans think you have the right to marry no matter who you love and what sex, but it is something contingencies are having trouble catching up with. >> this country has no place for discrimination. guinness wants to do it, i

commend them for making the move. if people don't want to buy guinness, that's their choice now. that's their corporate right, good for them. >> i think that was the issue. you're doing this as a way of advertising to get your brand out there when all of a sudden it is hurting your brand and bar openers are pulling you off the shelves, maybe you say, forget it, i don't want to be involved anymore. >> guinness is the face of irish beer. so you look at the stonewall inn in new york, they said we are pulling guinness off the shelf and guinness rightfully so wants to distance them. we are irish-based but we are a beer for everybody. i mean, it's a corporate move, it's a no-brainer. >> not just a corporate move. i do appreciate this. thank you, becky, for suggesting that i do the work because the mayor of boston, not going to participate in the parade. bill de blasio not going to participant in the parade. it appears a lot more people are suggesting they will not be there. >> all right. so, yeah, not surprised to see

this because of the feelings in the country. again, a majority of americans feel that you absolutely have to give equal rights. and that's something to push back on all the other organizations. let's talk about the brackets. we mentioned, they have been revealed and it's time to start making your picks. florida, arizona, wichita state and virginia, they are getting the top seeds. those are the number one teams. last year's national champ louisville seeded fourth in the midwest bracket even though a lot of people considered them a possible number one seed. they have played very well with a tough schedule. and one of warren buffett's favorites, creighton getting a three seed in the west region. this could be a trickier time because there are so many people who were surprised by the seedings. and people who thought, look, there's never been a time when you go to pick your brackets, there's never been a time when a 16 beat a number 1 team, but the closer the teams are in terms of how well they play and equally matched they are, the tougher it is to try to pick the brackets. >> what's the odds, like 1 in 6

million to get it totally right? i made my picks. >> i think you're being kind, it is worse than that. >> it is basically impossible. i remember a guy who won a million dollar challenge because he confused george mason with george washington. george mason went to the final four. he picked them thinking they were george washington and he was a truck driver. he still won. florida, florida, right, beats duke in the final. florida is your national champion. >> wow. okay. guys, when we come back, doing business in ireland. it is time for a second look at the emerald isle. first, we'll look at the market reaction to the vote in crimea. believe it or not, stocks are up in moscow. u.s. futures are sharply higher. you are looking at gains close to triple digits from the last time we took a look. heading to break, look at yesterday's winners or losers. this would be friday's. about business internet?

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talk to a pnc investments financial advisor today. ♪ the people of cry meimea vo to secede from ukraine and i am a little surprised by the reaction. >> i think it's probably like this. buy on the rumor, sell on the news. those people sold on the rumor and are buying on the news. we'll bring up the one week and the one month. they both cover the stocks

except the mcx is in rubles and the other is in dollars. here's the micex, a bit of recovery, but i want you to see the six-month that as we see a climb in stocks today, it doesn't make up for the brutal losses for both the micex and the rts. a decline of 4% in the last month. the talk out of russia is that supposedly the reason besides the selling on the news is that the sanctions are unlikely to be very severe as a result, so a little bit of a relief rally there. ruble is slightly weaker. so that would be more intuitive to what we would understand, but generally the whole fear of capital flight we have talked about so much doesn't seem to be as strong today. we are looking for -- the rhetoric has risen dramatically out of russia. we'll try to find the video, i don't know if you heard about the tv anchor who said russia is still the one country that can

blow the united states to smithereens. russian television in russian, we have a producer who has seen it but also "the new york times" has the story. all the wire services have stories about it. so the rhetoric is getting quite interesting. still, though, russian markets and the u.s. markets and the gold markets seem pretty relaxed at this point. i think we have to wait to see what putin does next. >> so the idea that there could be a reaction still based on -- >> what i think we don't know yet is does he want to try to take the eastern half of ukraine? will he use the same rational, oh, we need to protect the russians living there in the eastern ukraine. will he go even further? i'm not sure he's decided yet. remember, the way he always acts is he waits. and then he says one thing and does something completely different three days later. i'm not going to an next crimea but then he acted like he was

going to annex crimecrimea. don't forget his opinion polls have gone through the roof in russia. huge! >> he's got better ratings than he's had in years at this point. and that's, in part, because the media there is doing things like having this russian reporter in front of the cloud. >> and you talk to russians and people familiar with russian culture, they very much like stability and power. remember, there was so much chaos after the fall of the soviet union, starvation, things were crazy under yeltsin and e theizatithe privatization that happened. they suffered so much instability for so long. >> but his back is against the wall because he can say no to crimea joining russia and look weak or he can agree to annex crimea and tick off the western world. >> i don't know if he sees -- i think he thinks his back is against the wall with many options and choices to use as leverage.

>> it seems like two, accept crimea or not. >> we have sanctions. they talk about all the individuals they are going to sanction, but nobody talks about sanctioning putin. so at this point, are we going to sanction all the people involved in the takeover of crimea? there's one guy. >> are we putting a tariff on russian imports? of what, exactly. >> right. and if you go after dollar-linked assets, you really is to get western europe to go along as well. >> you have to imagine all the baltic states are in a frenzy about what happens next. >> right. does he go further? does nato get involved? these are all questions we'll watch play out. >> did you hear john mccain's comments this weekend? masquerading as a country. >> it was an op-ed he wrote in "the new york times" on saturday. he was interviewed by steve sedgwick.

>> michelle, thank you. when we come back, is it time to put money to work in ireland? the ceo is responsible for foreign investment on an island. coming up, a check on the european market. green arrows there as michelle pointed out. not a lot of reaction to what happened in crimea over the weekend. if you have moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, like me,

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♪ it is safe to say foreign investors are still seeing green

in ireland these days, especially after a successful bailout from the eu last year. joining us onset is bailey oleddi. barry, it seems like every time i fill in on the show you are here, and that's fantastic. the irish economy has recovered in an amazing way. in fact, the irish stock market, your dow is up 8% this year, 27% over the past 12 months. how solid is the irish recover in this? >> i think if you go back three years ago when borrowing rates were about 15% last week. we have growth in the economy again, so the story is moving in the right direction. the budget deficits will be met by 2015. but of course like anything, this still has a few hurdles to go and we are trying to make sure that we grow the environment. >> how do you make sure you don't make the same mistakes twice overleveraged, bad lending

and credit? >> well, first of all, the banking system has been totally reformed in the cop text of that, so i don't see that happening again, but i do think if you get the proportions right and the economy, 22% of the irish economy was construction. today it is 5% to 6%. in all the economies, 11% to 12%, so there's a huge focus on getting that right. >> and 100% of the irish company was house flippers, with all due respect. >> at that time, but now when you look at it, it's the export economy that's driving economic growth in ireland. and that's driven very much by multinationals. and in particular, u.s. multi-nationals. >> i want to talk to you briefly about taxes. every time you come on we talk about taxes. the quote/unquote race to the bottom, what some people think is going on. are you expecting any kind of reform here in the u.s.? because i assume you have to mop or the what's happening here in the u.s. all the time and then sort of think how you want to calibrate your own taxes.

>> so you think back to five, six years ago when we had the same conversation. the various proposals, it takes a long time to get reform, but of course taxes are global for the oecd and the report, et cetera, but regardless of what happens in the global tax environment, tax will remain an area of come pettive advantage because countries must choose like do you lower energy costs, do you have material and low labor costs? your tax is divided up because the sales income tax and corporation tax, countries need to have the flexibility to be able to make that choice. >> sir, what do you think about the u.s. corporate tax? there's been so much talk here and so much push to rye to reform taxes here, is it an advantage to set up taxes the way they are in the united states? >> going back to how you slice up the tax, some of your income tax rates are low by international standards.

your corporation tax is high. other countries have taken a different path, but yours seems particularly high from a corporation tax point of view. >> when you see companies like apple, apple famously known for the double irish, what is it called, the double irish, do you know what i'm talking about? the double irish tax, right? it's this way of moving the money around through ireland. how do you feel about that? >> well, i think it's very important, you know, for company that is are in ireland, that they pay tax on the activities and the profits in ireland. of course, companies global structure involved, different locations, and going into a 21 company, in particular, the u.s. has a choice to make moves in global taxation market as well and they have chosen not to do so. >> hmm. >> what's your take on -- i know this is out of left field on russia, crimea, obviously everybody, western europe is watching this as well as we are. there's got to be an irish take

on this, because if there's a threat in ukraine, if russia and the u.s. and rern europe sort of continue to butt heads, there's an economic risk to western europe as well? >> so the biggest stat from the irish perspective or the dark cloud could be a flat or decline in the european market. most of them come to service the european market. anything that the russians might do or anybody that might affect the free flow of trade, that could be problematic. but of course you have to look at somebody like germany getting all their energy, a lot of russian money in the u.k., make sure they understand that the markets are up this morning. >> shockingly so, russia is up 2%, although down 20% so far this year. >> sure, but from the overnight results, et cetera, it has grown, nonetheless. >> real pleasure. thank you so much, barry, for joining us. happy st. patrick's day. >> to you and to all your listeners and viewers as well. >> cheers. >> there's also the dutch sandwich, which is another thing

that goes on in netherlands, a different tax deal. thank you for being here. an opportunity knocking employers and employees looking for an edge. we'll have that discussion when we come back. and heading to this break, check out the futures this morning. we have green arrows on st. paddy's day. they are color coordinated with the dow opening up 100 points. we are back in a moment. g forwa. for some, every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal.

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welcome back, everybody. the u.s. equity futures are up this morning. this all comes after the vote from crimea to secede. a little bit of a surprising reaction, even the stocks in moscow are up. as michelle caruso-cabrera pointed out earlier this morning, that's largely because there has been such a sell-off over the last week and the last month. we'll see what happens. still waiting for putin's next step. in today's jobs environment, both employers and employees are looking for an edge to obtain success. this morning, "squawk's" very own is here. she does a lot of behind the scenes, bringing us greatest guests. her latest book is out,

"opportunity knocking." she calls this the opportunity pyramid. thanks for coming in today. >> thanks for having me. >> we're excited about this book. we want to hear more about it. why did you write it. >> i found over the course of my career at cnbc and the local news, no matter what industry people are successful in, they use the exact seven strategies. we use it every day as well. i thought i'd break it down. >> what is the seven strategies. >> know yourself. you need to know your weaknesses and strengths because if an opportunity comes your way you need to know if you can do it or not. then you want to fortify your knowledge. harold hamm, billionaire, high school education. he actually learned from mentors and took selective courses. then you go to the next level which is looking at the execution and the details. and then you have your passion. because passion really gets you through the highs and lows.

so i talked to steve case about that. as we all know, he had the apex of success, went back down, and he's back up. then you're looking at staying the course, because during this time, you really need to keep your focus on the details. finally you have execution. where you really have to fine tune, make sure you stick with your strategy and that's where i talked to david rubenstein from carlisle about. finally, world domination. which i know is a heavy word but we all want to be the best -- >> that's your last one? >> and by the way, the last thing, destroy everybody. >> exactly. >> use the other six. >> exactly. be the best that you can be. and if you are achieving the success and create something, why would you want to pass the baton off to somebody else so they become more successful based on what you created. >> you made atonight opportunity pyramid, not a rectangle,

indicating things at one point will be more difficult than others. >> exactly. >> do you see leaders, no matter how great he or she may be fall off with every step? it gets harder and harder and harder. >> the basis of it, there are two key things. honesty. you can't kid yourself. you have to have that culture. all good leaders have corporate culture where it fosters the innovation, they support people, give folks the ownership they need in order to be successful. a lot of times when we see the failures, the culture crumbles and it comes from the top. >> what do you think drives all the people on your list? they have to be introspective. i wouldn't argue everybody is so introspective. what do you think it is that's propelling all of this? the passion piece of it? >> it's the compelling vision. they really truly believe in what they're doing. like when you look at alan mulally of ford, he took over ford when it was horrendous.

he had this epiphany when he saw an ad from 1927 saying "opening the highways to all mankind." every decision they make at ford goes back to that ad. i think it's because they truly believe in what they're doing. it's that passion that enables them to get through the highs and the lows. >> the book is called opportunity knock, lesson from business leaders. on the wall, you see a lot of people who are featured leaders in that book. we'll be talking about the book this week. >> thanks a lot. >> i don't know when she finds time to write. you get up at half past dark. >> she's been writing books for years. >> coming up, the u.s. markets are indicated higher today. have the bulls put the crisis in ukraine on the back burner? plus, looking ahead to the fed. janet yellen's first news conference. much more with gary ckaminsky ad

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good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is off today. brian sullivan is joining us for the morning. gary kominsky is here with us this morning. >> do you want one? can we hand them around. >> i already had a couple. this is tradition. when i come to visit "squawk

box" which is 20 years plus, i always get the hot, early morning -- >> you go all green. which one did you have? >> the mint oreo one which we have in the make-up room. >> my guess is you'll try all of them before we're done, andrew. >> go for it. he said he wouldn't be tempted. come on. >> i have to have something green today. >> wee have a lot to talk about. markets will be interesting as the investors are following the situation in ukraine and crimea. futures have been indicated sharply higher this morning. right now the dow futures up are 85 points above fair value, s&p is up over 9 points. these levels are off the highs of the morning. at one point we were looking at the dow futures up 99 points above fair value. in the meantime, take a look at what's been happening with the ten-year note. yield at 2.674%. in our headlines this morning, the number of countries involved

in the search for that missing malaysia airlines flight has expanded. malaysian officials say there are 26 countries involved. part of that is because the flight could have gone over 11 other countries that we just learned about this weekend. all of those countries now involved as well. in the meantime, china is calling on malaysia to do more to find that jet that disappeared over a week ago with 239 people on board. about two-thirds of the passengers on the flight were from china. investors will have several economic reports to consider today as the new trading week begins. at 9:15 eastern time, the federal reserve will issue february reports on industrial production and capacitation utilization. government offices will be closed today because of 6 inches of snow overnight in washington, d.c. that's right. 6 inches of snow. the last few times this happened, scheduled economic reports did come out but later than expected. and at 10:00 eastern time we'll be getting the latest reading on home building sentiment from the national association of home builders.

one stock we'll be watching is the internet giant cena. its twitter-like service has filed for an initial public offering seeking to raise $500 million. it has another company try ing to take that. alibaba owns a stake in weibo. let's go now to steve sedgwick who joins us from kiev, ukraine, with a special guest. steve? >> reporter: thank you very much, indeed. we're joined by, potentially the next president of the ukraine. thank you very much indeed for joining us. one of your other names, people call you the ceo of the revolution from the events as well. what happens next in this crisis? >> first of all, thank you very much, steve, for inviting me here. today one of the most crucial,

one of the most important days in our history. just yesterday the russia finished so-called referendum which is really the smoke screen for the russian aggression of crimea. now we are expecting quite busy days with the russian diplomatic activity trying to settle the fact of aggression. we're waiting in a very few hours the first initiative and russia proposed that we take into account this referendum and start a negotiation. the process for limited of our territorial integrity and sovereignty of my country, which is not acceptable. >> even mr. kerry said in his press conference after the lavrov talks on friday, russia has legitimate interest in crime kra. is crimea lost to the ukraine? >> absolutely, no. i think we have quite a big mistake of russia.

because of that, russia can be in the complete isolation in the world. because no one country in the world can accept the results of this false referendum, this fake. no one country in the world can cooperate with the future crimea in the frail work. crimea is ukrainian territory. ukraine will fight for the territorial integrity. we do our best to return crimea back. >> a whole host of senior u.s. senators over the weekend, they promised bipartisan support for the ukraine as well. but what does that mean meaningfully? are you expecting military support from the united states and other allies. >> very good question, steven. first of all, we are peacekeepers. we try to do our best to undertake the diplomatic efforts to settle this conflict. we have at our disposal, lots of instruments, starting from the

personal sanction, their efforts, the economic embargo and different others. but you know ukraine today declared the mobilization of the ukrainian army and national guard. we are -- i think if the operation of russian forces go further and if it goes by the outside of the crimea, the danger of the real war is very high. >> very briefly, you are ahead in the poll which is are predicting the next presidency of this country on may 25th. just want to confirm, you are running and you think you will be the next president of the country. >> that will be public within the next week. what i want to stress once again, this is very important, we have an election on the 25th of may. this is crucially important. because the only democratic way to solve all the problem is the election, to give the people the right to elect their own leaders. and that, i think we do our best and the position of the united

states, position of european union, position of ukrainian people is to have the selection. and probably the democratic -- will present one single candidate, probably it ill with be me. >> than you very much indeed for joining us live on u.s. "squawk box." this is potentially the next president of the ukraine. guys, i hand it back to you. >> steve sedgwick, thank you very much. we'll continue talking about this. joining us is paul sheared. and our guest host, gary kaminski. welcome to the table. >> becky. >> i'd like to start off talking about what you think the market's reaction is indicating. i i was surprised to see such a positive reaction. i guess we knew part of this was going to happen. but still, surprised to see the markets. >> i guess, becky, as i've spent now, we were saying before i came on air, a year back in the business, so to speak.

and with investors, with clients. you know, you start to appreciate the lesson of the last 13 or 14 years has been for better or worse, that these events do have an impact on the short term, day to day, maybe week to week. i'm not that surprised to see the referendum take place and that the s&p hasn't bounced back because a lot of this stuff is just factored in in terms of the longer term thinking. there's always going to be these type of situations. and so i'm not that surprised. that probably has to do with the fact that i am much more of a longer term thinker than i was, say, in the past. >> we could also look at this and say, as michelle caruso-cabrera pointed out earlier this morning, we did see a big sell-off last week and even over the last month in russian stocks in particular, we could see a reaction when we wait for putin's next move. >> the second thing is that people that are smarter than i am, that pay very close attention to the fed -- >> there are a lot of people

smarter than you. >> thank you, andrew. >> there's a belief that anything happens to the state to create lack of stability in the geopolitics around the world gives yellen an additional ability to continue easy money policy. you may not like it. >> interesting. >> it may not smell good but there's a huge belief out there that anything that's bad is good for the u.s. capital markets because the easy money policy stays around longer. yes, brian, i see you snickering over there. >> i'm not snickering. i'm wondering if the fed, the ecb, the bank of japan, if the pboc in china have the economic firepower to counter what could be a serious problem in ukraine and russia. do they? because we've talked for years about how the fed's influence with everyone new program has waned. >> the fed has shown the ability since 2008 to be able to counter anything with easy money. what you're saying is, what if

we get into some full-fledge d hostile war-like situation. will the fed be able to counting that? i certainly don't have the answer to it. investors believe that the fed is there, the most powerful institution in the world right now, still. more powerful than anything else. and, therefore, this gives them a pass, a card to have the ability. >> let me frame is more bluntly. >> yes. >> does mario draghi have the ability to counter the economic effect of some or all of russian natural gas, going through ukraine on the soyuz or brotherhood pipelines being cut off? >> i have no idea. i cannot answer that question. >> that's what the market seems to be discounting. >> what do you think? >> i think asking monetary policy to deal with a major economic fallout from geopolitical risk would be perhaps a bridge too far. central banks and emergency situations can pump liquidity into the system. we saw that back in 2008.

there are limits to what monetary policy could do. >> what's the downside risk you see right now if that's the case? >> i think obviously, you know, it's a very hot geopolitical situation in the crimea, in the ukraine. if that went in an ugly direction, that would trigger downside risk to economic activity. >> you don't expect yellen to weigh in on this on wednesday? you think she's going to basically say stay the course? >> i think the fed would really steer clear of this issue. if you look at the way the fed thinks about policy, it's very dough mystically focused. they'll take note of it out of their field of vision but i don't think this will be a driving factor. >> the better jobs report we got, does that give janet yellen cover to say we're continuing to draw down? what do you think she does in terms of the taper? >> another 10 billion in the taper, i think that's very much in the cards.

i think it would take a lot to knock of fed off that course in a moment. this is a very historic meeting. janet yellen takes over as fed chair. we haven't seen this kind of continuity before. i think the big focus willing on the forward guidance. >> right. >> the fed signaled she clearly what they put in in that september meeting, that the unemployment rate went below 6.5%. it's clearly a place marker. they indicated they wanted to do something there. that's going to be the focus. it does give this first meeting with janet yellen a chance to put her initial stamp on the fed. >> i think she'll feel victorious. if you think about the end of qe 1 and qe 2 and the s&p reaction to the ultimate qe 3 as it's been called, the fact that the s&p up until a couple of days ago was back trading at all-time

highs and capital markets are flowing absolutely spectacularly around this country, i think she'll feel victorious that the taper message was not interpreted the way it was interpreted last summer by many this time around. >> you know, we haven't talked about inflation at all. i know you had a boring topic, right? monday morning, st. patrick's day. oh, gosh, inflation. coffee is up 80% year to date, wheat, sugar, meat, milk, you name it, it's higher. the fed wants a little inflation. are they going to get more than they wished for? >> i don't think so. you're right to point out that inflation, you know, is kind of the wild card here. we've seen lower readings all around the world. i think a little bit of inflation, pushing up the headline numbers back up to the mid-1s or closer to 2% would be welcome under the current conditions. >> paul, thank you very much for joining us today. >> pleasure. >> great seeing you. gary will be with us for the

rest of the program. coming up, the minimum wage debate, the housing reform and u.s./russia relations. and what better way to st. paddy's day than with irish whiskey from bushmills. i always drink it on the show. that's later, right here on "squawk box."

welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. the futures have been indicated higher. the dow futures are up 83, s&p up by 9 and the nasdaq up by 23. >> let's talk politics. political pundits weighing in on the possible outcome of the midterm election. what happens if the senate does in fact fall to the republicans. joining us now is harold ford jr., managing director at morgan stanley. good morning to you. >> andrew, good morning. >> i want to read to you, if i could, maureen dowd over the weekend, i don't quote her often but in this case i'm going to. she says hill democrats are sieging at obama. obama's approval ratings will shape the midterms and some hill observers compare the crumpling numbers to an illness. the president didn't do the basic things to take care of himself, now he's gone terminal and contagious. do you agree with that? >> i think probably that comment

is an overreaction a bit. i see at the core of it, the basis of it, you have a special election that took place where the obamacare act was essential. republicans in the past have overreached ted cruz where they called for a repeal of the shutdown. others talked about ways to fix it and talked about jobs in the economy. the president has created his own political organization. that political organization is not benefiting house democrats and democrats on the front line in senate races. i think you'll see a shift, the president will have to get more involved in raising money for democrats. i also happen to believe, i'm a contrarian here. >> you think he's going to help them raise money. is that a good thing in this environment? >> i think any democrat, any politician would take money from even folks they think may hurt them politically. they would take resources from

the president to defend his obamacare, to defend other things. the primary thing the democrats will be looking for if i were them, would be to find ways to fix, substantively fix parts of the obamacare plan that aren't working. obamacare will be central, will be key to this midterm election as well as the jobs and for that matter economy picture. >> harold, good morning. it's gary. >> good to see you, sir. >> do you sit next to each other. >> becky asked me when i worked in the building, do i miss being here? of course i do. the best thing about the last year working at morgan stanley is to travel the country and the world with this man. i will tell you, without getting too sentimental, if all politicians thought the way harold did about making compromise and making things happen, this country would be in a hell of a lot better place. >> you're very kind, sir. >> the one of the things our clients have told me in the last couple weeks, elections and

politics has not focused on investing for the last 12 to 14 months. that's been a good thing, that we volcano had the to worry about washington. there's a bit of a concern we may have to start to worry about that again as we get closer to november. is that something you should start to put on the front of the radar, concerns about nice market environments we've had here? >> the fact that the certainty out of washington has been that they've not done anything has probably been a big positive. i've learned more from you listening and watching clients around the globe as well as anyone at morgan stanley. i would add this caveat to it. i think election years give an opportunity for something meaningful to be done. if democrats feel increased pressure to fix parts of the obamacare plan to make it easier for small and medium size businesses to plan for the future, i would have to think that would be helpful to the market. if they feel pressure to give in to democrats on either the

minimum wage in exchange for a clear policy and more definitive policy around energy policy, i would have to think all of that would be additive in many ways for the economy and the markets. it's too early to make the predictions. >> in september, you had a good call on this. are you optimistic that's going to happen. >> i'm more optimistic today that the president will feel pressure around the health care plan and we'll have to find ways to offer material fixes, particularly for those senate democrats. increasingly we'll see colorado and michigan emerging as races as well. whenever politics and politicians feel pressure to negotiate, to compromise, find consensus, i think the markets and every day consumers win. we're getting closer to that kind of moment. >> we have a good conversation, so much to talk about. i'd love to have you back to

continue this conversation. >> i didn't get a chance to say good morning to brian either. >> when's our dinner? we keep start talking about. i know you have a relatively new baby. >> she's 12 weeks. when she says i can go out, i'll go out. >> see you in three years. a controversial commercial airing on russian television. you'll want to see this. more "squawk," coming up. no two people have the same financial goals. pnc investments works with you to understand yours and helps plan for your retirement. talk to a pnc investments financial advisor today. ♪

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welcome back, everybody. michelle caruso-cabrera is back with controversial video that aired in russia earlier today. >> let's show it to everybody right now. it's been sent down, the feeds coming from russia. this is from russian state television, russian one. the show is called "news of the week." look behind him. that is a mushroom cloud. he is quoted as saying russia is the only country in the world, that, quote, is really able to turn the usa into radioactive ashes. he's known for his vitriolic die tribe s -- diatribes against

united states. >> the question is, this nut job who's out there on television or is this kind of piping into something that is more main line than we realize among the russians. >> i think he's gotten the okay to ferment nationalistic fervor. remember, putin's ratings have gone up dramatically in russia as a result of what he's done in ukraine. >> who would you compare him to in the united states? >> he would have the power of some very famous people at 8:00 at night. >> let's leave it right there. >> different side of the -- you know. >> he has a following. >> yes. what he says is condoned. you listen to it for clues. >> as to what the kremlin is thinking. >> exactly. >> the russian media is generally state sponsored. are we able to say he's not condoned by the kremlin. just being on the air doesn't that make him condoned by the

kremlin? >> they can say he's not sanctioned but he is operating at their discretion. >> i don't think everybody said he wasn't sanctioned. >> he's maybe not a mouth piece but he's certainly -- he's not being pulled off tv today because of that. >> right. >> there you go. >> that's my whole point, yes. >> wow. >> that's concerning. what does the u.s. do to respond and how do we do this? >> we won't be running mushroom clouds on cnbc. >> when "squawk box" returns, a report on the missing malaysia airlines flight that gets more mysterious by the day. and the fallout from the gm recall. why is could get worse before it gets better. more "squawk" right after this. ♪ ♪ ♪

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honda recalled nearly 900,000 odyssey mini vans. cars affected are from the 2005 to 2010 model years. they have a fuel pump that could

crack and cause a fuel leak. honda says there have been no reports of fires or injuries related to the issue. also the board of retailers, sears approving the spinoff of the company's land's end clothing business. the separation will occur on april 4th. land's end will use the ticker symbol le. and mr. peabody and sherman top the weekend box office. 300 rise of an empire dropped to second place after debuting at number one the prior week. >> actually i just started reading prior to the malaysian airlines thing sort of weird sa serendipity, a book called "the skies belong to us." they focused on this one

american couple who was angry about things. >> the first airline i flew from l.a. to san diego, long trip. they hijacked it. it talks about the evolution of airport security. the airlines fought security so hard back in the early '70s. they thought nobody would want to have a security check. there were days you'd have multiple planes hijacked the same day. >> in the united states? >> in the united states. there was something like 130 -- it's an excellent book "the skies belong to us." 137 planes hijacked within a two-year period in the united states. most people wanted to go to cuba because they assumed they'd get asylum, not knowing castro would take the plane, sell it back to america and force them into a sugar camp. they were living effectively in prison. it talks about the evolution of airline security. the one thing we focus so much on this malaysian jet and what's happened to it, you wonder when

all is said and done at the end of this, will there be another leg to airline security? will it be another step up? at what point is there a turning point for passenger tolerance? >> that will be totally a function, if there is ever an ultimate conclusion as to what happened here. >> there will be, whether it's next week or 50 years from now. >> all the satellite companies that transmit data, i have to imagine over the next decade the black box will start streaming, right? that will be a major thing that does happen. the cost airlines say is prohibiti prohibitive. when you think of the cost of going to fly this plane. the french airline, that cost $50 million. the government pays for that, though. the airlines don't. >> which s&p 500 company invented the black box? >> i don't know. >> general mills. >> i was going to say general

electric. >> why? >> the food company. >> because they used to build submarines for the navy. >> what color is the black box? >> orange. >> bingo. general motors continues to fall under heavy criticism for its handling of an ignition switch recall. joining us now is paul ingrassia. this is a situation that gets stranger by the day. we hear about a lot more in depth about how this problem was bigger and older than we expected initially. where does this take us? >> well, sort of a three-ring circus right now. you have the legal proceedings, regulatory proceedings and investigation. and you also have the public relations issue. and there's so much of this -- so many different things going on, this is going to be in the headlines for a while. just over the weekend, you know, we carried a story about some people who had driven these cars. one poor young woman had been the driver in an accident that killed two young friends. she blamed herself.

she had no idea the car was defective until a couple weeks ago until all this broke. she's been living with this anguish guilt. more and more stories like this will come out. >> we heard general motors might not be liable in some situations because of the bankruptcy, the restructuring. this is something that gm lives with no matter what the legal links may be. correct? >> well, absolutely. i think general motors to its credit has said we'll do the right thing. it's not been specific but if gm basically says, you know, look, we're a different legal entity post bankruptcy than we were prebankruptcy and we're not going to do anything for customers on this from a legal standpoint, that will be a very bad mistake. i can't imagine the company will do that. honestly. >> what does -- go ahead. >> my apologies. you've been doing this a lot time. did you remember the grimshah case, the ford pinto case of the

1970s? >> yes. >> when you look at the legal possibilities for gm and go back to the pinto case in the 1970s, similar assumptions may have been made about cost benefit analysis. is there anything analogous about the two? >> the thing that's most strikingly analogous is this, in the ford pinto case which involved rear-end collision in which basically three young women were sadly, tragedy burned to death in their pinto, what happened was ford is a company and several ford executives were subject to criminal indictments. it was a criminal trial in a small county courthouse in indiana. the individuals were acquitted but ford itself was held criminally liable. the fines they paid were minimal but it was a black mark on the company for a long, long time. so now there's a criminal probe going on this case, on the ignition switch case. it's unclear whether there will

be individuals indicted or the company or neither or both. so the criminal aspect of this is pretty sobering. >> hey, paul, can i switch topics for one second? >> sure. >> i'm curious what you think of what's beginning on in new jersey with tesla in terms of a -- bypassing the dealership and going direct to consumers and what they may or may not mean for the dealership world and the rest of the nation? >> well, it's remarkable, actually. tesla basically has a different model. they don't go through dealers. they sell cars directly to consumers. whether that's wise or not is sort of their issue. but the car dealer groups in america are very much against this. they see this as a threat to their existence. they are mounting a legal regulatory and political campaign. they're a very influential group. car dealers are in every congressle and state legislative district in the country. they have a lot of clout.

>> so what do you think should happen? >> well, you know, i think it should be up to tesla, frankly. i know that will be a controversial move with the dealers. you know, companies should have the right to decide do we want to establish the dealer franchise system or not. tesla might change its mind on this. >> what happens if gm looks at what tesla is doing and says, we're going to buy them out or set up next door. that's what some of the laws were originally men to the protect against. >> that's the dealer's argument. i understand that. general motors has a long established franchise system. tesla doesn't. that's a big difference. >> paul, i describe -- >> they're not hurting anybody now. they're not hurting anybody now by selling directly to customers. >> to your point about dealers. we talked about that in the 6:00 a.m. hour of "squawk box." i described this as tesla's alamo, this is where they make their stand in the courts. would you go so far as to call

it that and what happens if they win or lose? >> i think this litigation will probably go on for a while. as far as the -- i think if tesla wins this case, you know, they'll just continue to sell their cars, they're a very small company, obviously but a high-profile company. if they lose this, i think this probably would go all the way to the supreme court to be honest with you. it cuts to the heart of a bunch of fundamental issues on how companies control their own distribution. >> it's great talking to you. thank you for joining us today. >> have i agreat day. >> you, too. >> paul ingrassia. more than a week has passed since the malaysian airline jet disappeared with 239 people on board. the focus of the investigation turning now to the pilot and co-pilot. phil lebeau, this gets murkier by the day. >> it does, brian. unfortunately, there are no new

answers coming out. there's very little information we have, concrete information. it's speculation more than anything else. the fact that malaysia airways came out and the country came out, malaysia's prime minister came out and said, we'll be looking at two arcs. one to the north that goes up into asia and one goes south into the indian ocean, that's where the focus of the search, if you will, is concentrated right now. you've got countries as far up as kazakhstan now saying they're going to be involved in terms of seeing if there might be a possibility that flight 370 went up into that country. you mention that the investigators are looking into the background of the flight crew. that included over the weekend investigators raiding both of their homes, or actually searching both of the homes of the pilots. they did look at one -- the chief pilot, he has a flight simulator that he's built in his home. so they're looking at that, seeing if there's clues there. did he give any kind of indication from looking at the flight simulator that perhaps he was planning on flying into a

specific location. and also, over the weekend, the prime minister made the announcement that the satellite communications system was turned off before the final contact between the pilot and air traffic control. that final message from the pilot was all right, good night. that's significant in itself. typically when you leave one air space, one country's air space and you go into another, it's not all right, good night. you tend to read back exactly where you're going to be, what transresponded, et cetera. that did not happen. when you look at where the search is today, three things are going on. you have the p-8 poseidon flying search missions. the countries that are involved here in terms of the arcs are reviewing satellite records and the u.s. is assisting, looking if there's anything in the past week and a half that shows

anything. finally, they're reviewing the manifest of passengers. though we said at the top, the focus is on the flight crew. think about this, if you were going to steal a 777, let's say the intent here was to steal this and take it somewhere, you need more than just this idea in your head. you're going to need assistance from other people. that's what investigators are looking into. >> phil, it's gary. i heard early this morning there was some -- the airline apparently said these pilots did not request to fly on this flight together. i don't have any idea how scheduling goes together in malaysia airlines. the fact they did not know that they would be flying on this specific flight together, what does that mean to you in terms of somebody who follows this industry so closely? >> to me it means if there was a big conspiracy out there, we've all heard these. you don't have to go far to see the conspiracies on the internet, in terms of, well, they've taken it, it's parked somewhere, they'll load it up with explosives and fly it

somewhere. the fact that they did not coordinate ahead of time or nor is there any indication that this flight crew was in coordination with anybody else, the ground crew at the airport, or someone somewhere else. that indicates the likelihood that you're looking at this aircraft being stolen and landing somewhere and hide it, i think that's unlikely. having said that, everything we've said so far, two days later we've come, well, you're not going to believe this but these what's going on. >> there's been speculation about the black box on this flight and all flights which is that they only record about two hours worth of audio in the cockpit. >> right. >> the longer you fly, it rerecords. is there any rationale in keeping the plane in the air for an extra two hours or longer to avoid people finding out what happened prior? >> i guess you could think that the pilot -- let's take the summing that the pilot stole

this plane for pilot suicide or they're hiding it somewhere. i suspect that is a possibility, although you would have to think, if your intent is suicide, are you worried about what people are beginning to hear on that black box? or if you're stealing the plane, are you concerned about the black box? your concern is taking it to where you want to take it to. i think we'll see proposals from government agencies to change the electronics within aircraft as well as the detection of aircraft. i think -- we'll probably see that in relatively short order. >> i know we have to go. my understanding the government currently, traditionally pays for the search and rescue missions. are the airlines on the hook for any of this? that does change the economics of all of this. >> to my knowledge, the airlines are not. and you're right. that would change the dynamics dra mtically. >> right. okay. >> phil lebeau, a real pleasure.

>> see you all day. coming up, will warren buffett do something his company has not done since 1967? that story is next. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪

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all right. let's check the futures now on this monday morning. st. patrick's day by the way. good morning, everybody. we are seeing actually surprising amount of strength in stocks. you would think everything that's gone on, especially the vote in ukraine for crimea to join russia maybe as early as the end of this week would have pressure on the u.s. markets. it is not. s&p, dow and nasdaq indicating a higher open on this monday. meantime, one berkshire hathaway shareholder has an idea. what warren buffett should do with all of that cash, pay a dividend. shareholder david wit plans to propose what he calls a meaningful dividend at the annual meeting on may 3rd. what are the chances that will happen? something warren buffett has said he'll probably never do again. berkshire hasn't paid a dividend since 1967. he has said many times investors will get a better return if the

profit is re-invested rather than paid out in dividends. do you see any chance of this occurring? >> not a chance. he doesn't pay out a dividend. charlie monger doesn't either because they figure the company has done much better by them reinvifting that money, buying stocks or re-investing it in the company or making acquisitions and shareholders are a lot richer for that. >> this is one of the topics i happen to be somewhat obsessed about in terms of the five things you can do if you generate cash. ironically, the statistics say, the long-term return of the stock market, two-thirds of the stock market return. however, most companies that do m & a generate cash and build it up or buy back stock don't actually have the significant outperformance. buffett has been able to do this while most other companies have not.

the better solution, the majority of the time is dividends and distributions. >> except in his case potentially. >> in his case, he looks at this, having the insurance companies, they create the float, the cash. >> it's free cash. >> if you're an investor you're looking for free cash flow. >> most companies can't buy other companies and culturally make it work. >> right. it's been interesting. the guy that's bringing the shareholder suit has about $8,000 in shares. if you want the dividend, find it in another company. these guys have said forever that they weren't going to do it. it should make the shareholder meeting more interesting. and bushmills talks the business of booze, right after this, on this st. patrick's day.

welcome back to "squawk box." there's no better way to celebrate st. patrick's day than with the world's oldest distiller of cocktails. we are starting early this morning, the celebration here. we want to talk about the business of all this in a second. what do we have here on the table. >> we mixed up a couple cocktails with guinness and bushmills. we wanted to put the two brands together and show you how to drink cocktails in a more modern combination. >> is this like a mimosa?

>> we call this the black velvet. it's a beginning of guinness and champagne. >> the three doughnuts that he had earlier today, this is great for absorbing those doughnuts. >> very good. what is he drinking here? >> this is a mojito essentially. we call this the gentleman's mojito. >> this is fantastic. >> if it's irish, you should have the '0 at the end. >> this is delicious. >> it's phenomenal to see the growth and the amount of distilleries that are opening back home. i think we're in a great position. we're been doing this for over 400 years at bushmills. >> is whiskey broadly becoming

more popular. >> without a doubt. we've seen great growth in canadian whiskey. >> i'm told -- i'm told that clear drinks like vodka, much better for the day after than the brown drink. is that true? >> i think that's possibly a myth. i think the only true thing is to make sure you drink responsibly and that will ensure a clear day the next day. >> why do you think irish whiskey has taken off so strongly. >> i think the consumer is more educated. i think you saw a growth in wine and craft beers popping up. now the consumer wants to know they're drinking something more mature, something with a lot of craft. >> do you think mad men plays a part in all of this. >> modern pop culture certainly does. >> there's no such thing as a

bartender anymore. it's a mixologist, right? >> that's helped us immensely, the way mixology has taken off across the globe. >> you're really skilled. you're amazingly skilled. picasso is still a painter. >> i don't think any of these guys and girls are for getting hospitality. when you walk into a bar, you want to be comfortable and enjoy yourself. that will get you to return and have a good time. >> what do you think the appropriate tip is, you go to the bar. the appropriate tip for a drunk if a mixologist. let's say the drink goes anywhere from 8 bucks to some of the really expensive stuff is 15, 20 bucks. i'm always wondering if i'm being cheap. if i'm spending too much. gary is looking at me like i'm crazy. >> you go to these fancy bars and get a $20 drink. we'll ask you the question. what do you tip for a $20 drink.

>> i would put down $2 and sometimes $3. should i be putting more. >> i would put that down for an $8 drink. if it's an $8 drink i give them 10 bucks. >> i disagree. first off, the sullivan rule of labor, number one. everybody in america should be a waiter or bartender at some point in their life. tip the same no matter what the price of the drink. you tip for the service, not the drink. >> if i buy a $5 beer, i put down a buck. >> you're not tipping for the food. you're tipping for the service. >> what's the answer? >> i think i'll follow your side of the fence. you're tipping the service. you're not tipping the drink. if you had a good time -- >> i don't think i've had a $20 drink. >> i don't think i've had a $20 drink either. >> we have to go, andrew. when we come back, the people of crimea voting. we'll talk about that. "squawk" will return right after this.

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no two people have the same financial goals. pnc investments works with you to understand yours and helps plan for your retirement. talk to a pnc investments financial advisor today. ♪ krikia moves to join russia. market pros barry knapp and ed keon will tell you where to put your money to work during these volatile times. a big week for janet yellen.

with a two-day fed meeting on the agenda, the fed chair sits down for her first news conference. a preview of what she'll say is just ahead. and a bitcoin battle with buffett. >> it's a mirage basically. >> should you be a buyer of the electronic currency the ceo of coin setter defends bitcoin as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. \s welcome back to "squawk box." i'm andrew ross sorkin along with kbekky quick and andrew sullivan. we have green matching the holiday season. dow looks like it would open up 93 points higher, the nasdaq 23 points higher. wall street may be open for business as the new week begins.

take a look at the weather. federal offices will be closed after more than 6 inches of snow fell in washington overnight. this could impact the release of today's economic numbers. the federal reserve is scheduled to release february data on industrial production. however, the last few times the weather closed government offices, economic data was delayed. one report that should come out on time is the latest look at home builder sentiment from the national association of home bullers. that is due at 10:00 a.m. one stock to watch in today's trading, hertz global. that stock is jumping in the premarket. it could be worth as much as $4.5 billion. >> such an amazing story. the whole thing looked like it would go bankrupt. >> have you rented a car lately. >> i have. >> it's expensive. >> it is expensive.

becky, everything now depends on what vladimir putin does and does in many ways. one, does he get his duma, his parliament in russia to accept that call for annexation for the call of the crimean parliament. there's provocation on the mainland which means putin could move forces to justify. what does he do in reaction too sanctions, of course? the eu and the u.s. moving quickly we understand to move on sanctions. i spoke to a whole host of u.s. senators who are down on the ground in kiev over the weekend. john mccain was hawkish. he was saying it's time to realize vladimir putin is an

ex-kgb colonel and we must treat him as such. three u presidents have failed to cooperate and they have failed. dick durbin, assist and the majority leader saying to me the trump card that putin had was energy. and it was time to help european colleagues by allowing more u.s. gas out of the country, lng, of course. john hovan of north dakota, a state that has a lot at stake in terms of energy, he was saying we can move fairly quickly on this. why is this a big issue? as much as the europeans may want to have big sanctions against the russians they can't because they get a third of their oil and gas from russia. as such they are slightly beh d behelden. the next big agenda date i would suggest could be this friday coming up for a whole host of regions. that is when the russian duma is

set to vote on bringing crimea into the federation. back to you. >> we'll be watching we're waiting for the next move by putin as well. that is steve sedgwick keeping us up to date on everything that's happening in ukraine. we've been watching the futures for data and janet yellen. joining us from new york is barry knapp, barclays head of u.s. strategy portfolio. gary kaminski is our guest host today. barry, ed, let's start off talking about what the reaction has been. barry, were you surprised by the lack of a reaction really in the markets to this vote from crimea? or was it just so expected that this is what people were already expecting? >> yes, it ebbs and flows with these things. we had a considerable amount of risk priced into the market and things like volatility market, the vix had a good run late last week. it's not shocking that we get to monday morning and you get a

relief rally. i'm not sure why the market should be all that sanguin about the market. but still that's how the market tends to move on this thing, it ebbs and flows. >> ed, how about you? >> i think it's worth drawing a distinction between risk and uncertainty. the market is used to dealing with risk when you know the possible outcome and can assign reasonable probability to those outcomes. when you have a situation like what we're facing in ukraine and to a substantial degree in china, the market doesn't know exactly what could happen, never mind assign what probabilities are to various things. >> do they ignore it altogether. >> you'll get swings because of little bits of information. it's not over yet. >> right. i agree with ed on that. he makes an excellent point. if you think about the risk

reward from a tactical perspective right now, near term, let's say we have an ebb in the concerns about crimea or china, if nothing else, we don't get another round of chinese data for a month, then the data is likely to get better in the u.s. the fed is going to go from quantitative to qualitative guidance. the bond market could sell off sharply and the stock market will struggle with that. if we don't get it and we get that uncertainty related to these other exoginous events, then so be it. >> let me ask you the following question. i always respected the technicals. i never invested based on technicals. somebody i have tremendous respect for was on this air at cnbc on friday, lawrence altman. says technically he thinks the

s&p could hit 1575 that we are severely overboard and that the way the market has acted for the last several weeks we tend to believe we could finally get this direction. i don't see that based on what i see fundamentally. but is that something that you would say is a possibility here? >> i always left the technicals to my old friend ralph eckenpora. >> do we have to pay attention to the technical, those that are good at the technicals. >> think about it, you should think about anything in the market. i think the fundamentals are pretty good here and we will eventually get a decent year, around a 10% gain for the s&p. >> all right. >> let's talk about this. you think a pretty decent return, barry, do you think similar return is possible this year? >> not quite as high as 10%. but not that far short of that. i mean, our perspective on this

is when the fed starts normalizing policy, just stops easing, we've looked at every business cycle since world war ii, you get a period of adjustment that lasts a minimum of two quarters where the market struggles to make that transition. we've had a big runup in multiples, anticipation of stronger growth and the mark set digesting that. that's how the markets played out so far. but the back half of the year, i would guess that the uptrend would probably resume. that's typically what's happened in these cycles in the past. >> you use the word normalcy. if the fed gets back to normal policy and we start to see if and when -- >> what is normal? >> normal policy. doesn't the stock market normally go up when interest rates are going up? >> you make a good point. which is there's been three occasions in the last 70 years where the p/e went from 15, which is roughly to median to 20. but every one of those oaks, the back half of the 50s, the middle of the 80s and back half of the 90s happened with positive real monetary policy rates.

yes, bond market was typically -- rates were going up through that period but you need to get to that normalized policy first. we're some ways away from that, right? >> ed? >> i think where i'm different from the consensus, i think economic growth in the united states will be much morrow bust than most people think. we'll get off to a slow start because of the weather. but i think you'll see one of the last three quarters of the year will print to 5% gdp. >> really. >> wow. >> over 3, maybe as high as 5. >> 5% gdp growth? i hope you are right, sir. >> that's the first i've heard that. >> you're going to see several things happening. the fiscal drag which has been quite substantial for the last several years at the state and local as well as the federal, that ill with be substantially less this year. investment spending is finally starting to pick up. i think it will be much morrow bust than most people think and the consumer is in pretty good shape. combine that with better krcred

availability. >> a growth of what. >> 8% or so of earnings. p/es will stay the same. throw the 2% dividend yield, that's how i get my 10. >> if ed's right on the growth outlook, you'll pull forward monetary policy tightening. we're seeing wages going up. you saw it in the payroll report, the small business nfib survey last week. the market would struggle with that. >> pull it to late 2014? >> the fourth quarter of this year, i think you'll see a lot of guests talk about the fed being behind the curve. that will be the next challenge for the market, getting through the transition to a more normal policy. >> i realize we talked about it last hour. i don't think people are talking enough about inflation. okay? i was screaming on "street signs," 2:00 eastern time by the way. >> you're up to three. >> there you go. thank you, everybody.

>> i was screaming on "street signs" about heating bills. everybody i talked to, their heating bill is soaring. coffee is up, propane, corn. every major commodity we eat, consume in some way. >> they strip out food and energy, none of it will matter. >> exactly. >> in the harry potter inflation world, the only thing that matters is the price of quiddich balls. you get my point. >> look at the u.s.'s history, the labor market drives inflation. you don't get inflation without a rapid rise in wages. we just barely started to see wages go up at the rate of inflation. >> those are the last thing to move. >> we're a long way from that, i think. >> if you decompose u.s. inflation into a domestically conservative inflation, its at target prices. you stabilize global goods prices, you will have inflation at the fed's target much quicker

than most people expect. brian's on to something. i don't know about coffee. >> on that note i better cut you off. barry, ed, thank you. >> because he said i was on to something. >> sullivan is on to something. >> the harry potter world is like the new alice in wonderland? >> i don't know. my kid is in the harry potter phase now. i've suddenly become immersed in it. universal movie, fantastic company universal. >> lovely. wonderful company and movie. >> i need the bushmills like ed. coming up next woob we'll ride the rails for a closer look at the economy. could the boom in shale oil be a bust for other commodities? we'll pose the question and talk about the railroad economic indicator as we head to a break. check out the "squawk box" market indicator. we're back in a moment.

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that is a live look at new york city's times square. i predict, this is a long shot

guess by me, in a few hours there will be many people wearing green weaving side to side -- >> as they dodge the pigeons or weaving because -- >> st. patrick's day. >> maybe. >> as we call it, amateur hour, my people. i do not wear green by the way, just out of respect for the folks back in the homeland. >> that's not why. >> it's potato color. good news and bad news for the railroads. look what they did. >> thank you. >> there you go. >> thank you, everybody. i appreciate that. there we go. we have the green shirt on, lads. >> first the good news. there's been a surge in oil shipments by railways since the u.s. energy boom began. here, though, is potentially the bad news. reports that the rise in crude oil shipments may be slowing down transportation of other needed commodities. "the wall street journal" had an article saying that a backlog at bnsf of coal, sugar, grain and others is causing delays for

shippers. warren buffett himself addressed this issue on "squawk box" friday. >> traffic is not flowing well this year. i wouldn't say it's overwhelming because of the -- the weather had a lot to do with it. crude oil is less than 4% of what we carry, at burlington northern. we carry quite a bit compared to others. it's added volume, important volume but it's still 4%. we carry 200,000 cars a week. we'll have less than 8,000 of that will be crude oil. grain has gotten piled up some. and that's because of difficulties on moving goods generally which may be exacerbated by the crude oil, even though it's not a huge part. >> joining us now is tony hatch from abh consulting. 20 years experience covering the railroad industry. so bnsf, buffett's company carries 4% of its load as oil.

that's more than any other railroad. i don't understand why the story was written. are they making too much of a big deal about it? >> i think they are. what you have going on in places like north dakota is growth in the four areas. cyclical clothe, the econo cyclical growth, the industry is of monthing. you have taking trucks off highways, the oil business, which is new. on top of it you have weather as mr. buffett pointed out. i think it's an unusual set of circumstances, not just that 4% move. it's only 2% or so from the industry. >> having been to willistfon, north dakota, they can't get enough oil and gas out of there to the rest of the country. they actually have to dispose some of it. if the railroads make a push to permian or eagle ford in texas, would that be good news for the trucking segment which has to pick up the extra loads?

>> the rail business still hasn't fully recovered from the great recession. the car loads are still below the 2006 peak. there's certainly capacity in the railroads. this industry has pivoted away from coal, towards new products like crude pretty quickly for an industry this old and this tied to the ground. i don't think you'd see a lot of business shift to trucks if that were to happen. what you say may come true. >> so when we look at the railroad industry then, how do we gauge it? do we look at it as a toll industry, a car industry? what are railroads today? or are they all different. >> they really are, based on the region. the growth month ed is coming out of intermodal, which is direct partnership and -- >> fancy word for the boxes on ships that get cupulleded off t ship by a crane.

>> truly a truck off the highway. >>fy was an investor in railroads, union pacific, they're up in the last 12 months. >> kansas city. >> if i was looking at this industry and saying "a" they're up big the last year or so, "b," i'm essentially making a proxy bet on coal, which is under attack, i wouldn't want to invest in it. >> i'll turn to tony because he's the expert and ask the question, the railroad stocks used to have a much higher -- or higher correlation with gdp. we just had a guest on here that says he thinks we could print 5% gdp later this year. if he's right, what does that mean for the railroad stocks? that ultimately is the most correlated factor. >> that would be terrific for the rail stocks. they are tightly correlated to the economy. what i think is really great about them, they have aspects of growth within that market share like this highway move that i've

been talking about. brand new business moving into the crude business. they'll handle a lot of the chemicals that will come when that gas does flow into the chemical industry over the next several years. they'll grow with the economy and more and they have pricing power. give me 5%. you have a great industry to invest in. >> does that include amtrak, tony? can you explain to me why bad weather slows down rail transportation in the northeast? i know it's a new technology. they're working out the kinks. please kill my sarcasm. >> i ride it all the time. that's how i get to washington. >> good man. tony, thank you very much. >> bitter ex-new jersey transit commuter. i bear the scars of the delays at penn station. nightmares of my youth. by youth i mean two years ago. tomorrow we'll have the new ceo of bnfs on, carl ice. he'll be here on "squawk box." his first tv interview since he

took over for matt rose in january, guys. janet yellen prepares for her first news conference. we'll preview the fed meeting and talk about the economy after the break. and then, buffett's bitcoin smackdown. yes, we said smackdown. the billionaire investor telling investors to stay away from the electronic currency. is he right? we have somebody who wants to say that he is wrong. "squawk box" coming right back after this. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. it was a successful weekend for the world's most famous time traveling dog. mr. peabody and sherman topped the weekend box office with $21.2 million in northern american ticket sales. the dreamworks movie debuted in second place the prior week. it pushed "300 rise of an empire" into the number two slot. still to come this morning, we have buffett's call on bitcoin. the billionaire investor warning other investors to stay away from the electronic currency, calling it a mirage. is he right? the ceo and co-founder of bitcoin exchange coin center, well, as you might imagine, he has a different point of view. he'll join us on set in just a few minutes. as we head to break, take a look at the equity futures. you're looking at strong moves to upside. dow up 83 points, nasdaq up by 21, s&p up by 8 points.

this is all despite what we saw with the vote in ukraine. there were foregone conclusions about what happened in crimea. green arrows across the board. we'll be right back. ♪

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good monday morning. 8:28 on the east, 5:28 on the west coast. thanks for joining us on "squawk box." keurig green mountain will replace wpx in the s&p 500. index fund managers will have to add green mountain to their holdings. watch for that stock to move today. meantime, the board of sears approved a planned spinoff of land's end. it will begin trading on the nasdaq in early april. the ticker will be le. we're also watching shares of lorillard, goldman sachs upgrading from buy to neutral, saying the company is entering a period of more limited bids. janet yellen takes center

stage this week as she is set to run her first meeting and hold her first press conference. steve liesman jone joins us wi fed preview. this is a biggie. >> she promised continuity but circumstances are dictating otherwise. yellen will continue her predecessor's policy of reducing the tapering by $10 billion at this meeting and signal further tapering ahead. she faces a difficult task of changing the fed's guidance on when it will hike ate rarates. it will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment remains above 6.5%. we're at 6.7% already. inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than half a percentage point above the committee's 2% longer run. choices are lower the number for which there is some but not overwhelming support on the fomc

or go to some form of qualitative guidance. the fed could say something like we'll keep rates low as long as the preponderance of data proposes slack in the labor market. the problem is, just no good measure that brings together all the different aspects of slack. and few analogues, you know people are leaving the labor force in part because they are tiring but also millions are discouraged and have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks. 7 million americans, this is something yellen brought up several time, working part time for economic reasons. what the fed doesn't know is how many millions could come back into the work force or work part time. the fed's rate outlook. this is where the fed is protecting itself. its average is where rates will be. 2016 is 2%, 2015 just above 1% and the longer run, these numbers are the ones that could come down.

i just want to show you some of the breakdown. if you look at the next chart, 12 members are under 1% for 2015 and then ten members, if you do the green bars for 15 -- sorry, for 16 are below 2%. those could actually come down. the longer run is up near 4%. that's what we're looking for, tweaking in those charts, when the projections came out and tweaking in the language -- >> tweaking meaning the rates will rise slower? >> more slowly. >> that is really interesting because we just had -- we'll talk about it in just a moment. >> you heard barry knapp saying -- >> i don't agree with barry knapp. >> do you agree with ed keon who said you could get a quarter where you're seeing better than 5% growth? >> yes. i think it's going to be -- yellyel yellen will have to explain, this will be one of the questions she'll be asked, how far does she let it run? you have wages that have been subpar for a long time.

there's scope for them to run in an uninflationary way, especially in a globalized world. >> does the fed control it, though? if you have the market looking at better than 5% gdp, at some point they're going to get to the conclusion that rates need to be higher. >> becky, you're expressing what are certainly the, i think, knee jerk fears of the market. it's going to see 5%, fed will hike. yellen will need to explain to markets, you know what, i'm chill on this, i'm good letting inflation run hotter. which is why you have that 2.5% goal in there. and letting growth run a little bit hotter because we have catch up to do. >> let's bring in a couple other voices. former federal reserve governor larry meyer, co-founder of macro economic advisers and gary kaminski, he's with morgan stanley wealth management. i don't know. tack this will idea. set me up here, larry. do you think we could see growth that fast? do you think yellen would be able to control rates if that

were the case? >> we have a lot of transitory developments going on in the economy. the economy is doing better than the data suggests now. we're likely to have a pay back in the second quarter and see strong growth. we're at 4. i wouldn't get blown away by 5. put that in context. the broad contours of the forecast as the fed is likely to see it remain the same, 3.33, declining unemployment rate, inflation moving up gradually. >> gary? >> late 2011, the fed would have forecast that the fed funds rate today based on their forecast in late 2011 we'd have 1.5%, maybe 2% fed funds rate. >> i'd have to go back and look. >> we have to remember that. >> it's been more optimistic about the outlook for economy, growth, unemployment. >> that was sort of where they were. >> yes. >> going back to the 5% number that ed had thrown out -- >> yes. >> you know more about this than i do. could we have a 5% gdp growth on

the reported inflation and/or reported jobs numbers? >> i mean, i would think you could get there, 5% on a real basis would be astonishing. that means you'd be doing 6 or 7 nominal. it's something you could potentially do. it's been done before. it's not unheard of. but i don't think anybody would mistake a 7% number for the trend. if i could ask larry a question, larry, how does the fed communicate slack here? yellen has talked a lot about part-time for economic reasons, 7 million americans, that makes sense but the trouble is, in this world, if you're not using the unemployment rate, what do you use? >> that's the key thing. i think we'll see no mention of the unemployment statement at all. we'll see inflation many times, maybe five in the policy paragraphs. it's all about inflation now. the labor market by a variety of indicators is improving. by the middle of next year, the

labor market will not be the issue. it's all about inflation, how many it's increased and what the trend is. right now that's the case but there's a lot of disagreement about just how tight labor markets are. there are certainly upside risk to inflation. >> i know you think the focus will be an inflation over the job market. ed luzier has a piece called the hidden rot in the jobs numbers. he'd argue the numbers got worse. he looks at the number average hours worked per week. he says that's going down. that should suggest we have a greater challenge on our hands. i'm sorry. he says an employer who replaces 14 100 40-hour per week workers. >> we may be looking at the wrong measure of slack. there's a lot of debate about

that. there's a lot of work that suggests that long-term unemployment, that's the unique feature of this expansion, the record levels, they have little or no effect on inflation. the only effect on inflation comes from the short-term unemployed and the back to normal level. so this is totally unsettled at this point. >> right. >> the committee hasn't really moved to a consensus. that's the big issue that they could face in coming meetings. >> okay. >> all right. >> gentlemen, thank you. larry, great talking to you. still to come, the ceo of bitcoin exchange coin setter. bitcoin is -- has been all over the map, just about any day you lack at it. right now it's trading around $623. the point, again, it's trading in u.s. dallas basis. that's one of buffett's points. we'll talk more about that then "squawk box" comes right back. gunderman group is a go.

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welcome back to "squawk box." happy paddy's day, st. patrick's day. the futures, see what's going on ahead of the market this morning. we have green arrows, the dow looking like it could open 72 points higher, the s&p, 7.5 points, the nasdaq, 21 points higher. brian. coming up, jim cramer himself on the week ahead. what investors should be looking as we kick off a new week on wall street. i also want to ask jim, does he sleep? he was working at his restaurant

all night saturday, signing books during the day and then working at his inn on sunday. >> he has a twin brother. >> i'm going to ask him. about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today.

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welcome back to xsh xb. let's get down to the new york stock exchange where jim cramer joins us now. apparently working over the weekend. i heard you were doing a lot of things, working at the inn, busing tables, signing books. >> i serve breakfast at my inn, signed books at costco and served dinner saturday. we were slammed. what was i going to do? a couple of my friends came in and saw me clearing dishes and busing tables. when you have a big crowd you have to take action. >> did you see the movie the presieged with christian bail? he had an identical twin brother. it's ten years old. i can ruin it. where is tim cramer? where is your identical twin. >> i was working hard this weekend. we had to serve sunday brunch. started at 12:00. i got a new market reader that we were trying. i have a new chicken salad that's really good if you come

by. we were crowded. you can't just wait and have people at the door and not seat them and not serve them water. what am i going to do. >> i have a stock question. >> sure. >> help me make sense of yahoo! in the context of alibaba. if yahoo! owns 24% of it and yahoo! is trading at a market cap of $37 billion, is that an indictment of yahoo! itself? yahoo! on its own is only a couple billion bucks, max. >> i think people feel that yahoo! is somewhat of a wasting asset. i don't feel that way. there's been a subtle backlash against yahoo! saying maybe the honeymoon is over. maybe things aren't so great. at the same time, i think that this is a nice call on what i regard as being a lot of things that are in action at yahoo!. they're not coming to fruition yet. >> yes, andrew. >> i thought you were -- >> no. unless the camera is wrong, i

see that jim, like myself and wore the green tie today unlike sully. jim, glad to see we are wearing the green tie in honor of st. patrick's day. >> i had green beer last night. it tasted a lot like regular beer. >> that's actually not green. that's guacamole. >> you know how expensive guacamole is? i love that green. it is wrecking our profit margin. it's gone up triple since i started the restaurant. it is killing us. >> really? avocado inflation. >> we've been talking about inflation this morning. do you think it's a problem? >> well, it is if you run a restaurant. no, i don't, in general. i think there's no wage inflation. i can listen to the economists talk about it but in the end we're not making as much money as we used to. i think there isn't a lot of inflation other than gauc. it must be killing chipotle because it's killing me. you have russian oligarchs who are trying to pull their money

out if they think there's going to be sanctions. i don't trust the futures. on a big up monday day, it's been chaotic if you go in there and buy the opening. i would not do it. >> jim, i followed some of your tweets and also you've been saying in the last couple of days, maybe i'm wrong, it seem to me you're getting more nervous. >> yes. look at this week of scheduled ipos. we have four cloud based companies. have you seen the cloud based companies? they're all going down. we have three more biotechs. can we really fit these in? we have chinese ipos. these are all bad signs. i want to avoid them, close my eyes to them but that's been a mistake. i'm not beginning there. >> cloud is interesting. one of my predictions that i made, pure cloud based industries, every company is going into the cloud. you don't install the software. the pure plays are in big trouble. many were trading at valuations which were greater than the investable opportunity.

if they had ever customer in their space, they could never make enough revenue. maybe some of the companies are trading on a prayer. >> that's the wrap on viva. these are 0%, 50% revenue growers. you're right. there will be a saturation point. sales force which went from 67 to 58, no no one is talking about that. >> we saw that movie once before, a comedy called "exodus." that's how they were going to get into that market. >> would you put your clients into these ipos. >> i don't manage money anymore. i don't put clients into anything. that's the first thing. second thing, like all risk-adjusted returns, there's always going to be some portion of one's assets put into speculative names, these names

or specific names. we like klein the to think about risk assets, exactly what they are, risk assets. and i think as i point out with exodus, we've seen this movie before. a lot of times these things will have a life much longer than something like myself or sn seso also managed money in a previous life. there will be plenty of people, whether they want to listen to the advice or speculate in the names. right, jim? >> amen. the perfect description. we'll say those old fogies, why did they keep me out of cast light? what were we thinking? we may look bad on 3-d printers for maybe six months but we've seen it all. i don't want to get caught up in it. i'm sorry. >> happy st. patrick's day. >> same. >> enjoy the green tie. talk to you soon. speaking of speculative investments, is bitcoin worth your dollars? warren buffett says no way. but our next guest will tell us why he thinks bitcoin is here to

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under armor a stock to watch on monday because they're splitting their stock, stockholders, april 14th, split two for one. stock's up 34%. 132% over the past 12 months. >> talk bitcoin. warren buffett bav his two cents on bitcoin. why he's less than impresseder. >> it's a mirage, basically. it's a method of transmitting money, effective way of transmitting money, you can do it anonymously. a check is a way of transmit, money, too. are check's worth a lot of money? money orders, people do it. i hope bitcoin becomes a better way of doing it, but you can replicate it different ways and it will be, and the idea it has some huge, insintrinsic value. >> a bitcoin exchange, we've got

the pronunciation of your name right. only downhill from here. >> or the pronunciation. >> how many times did you practice? >> several times. >> you would like to say that warren buffett, oracle of omaha, is wrong? >> very smart guy, but i think that -- >> all you'll give him, very smart guy? >> very smart guy, successful, too, i'll give him that. i think when you talk to people about bitcoin, there are certain levels of intelligence that this conversation goes. so like, when you first introduce people, what do you say? it's a digital currency. i think why i'm excited, why other people are excited about it especially venture capitalists, there's a whole payment network underneath that works very very well and quickly. when i'm given a special on international wire transfers, the option between bitcoin or say a bank transfer for us it's bitcoin every time. >> a lot of people i know, the smartest technology people i know will say that the code for

the actual bitcoin is written beautifully. the idea that will get hacked, probably off the table, at least for now. all the wallets that actually where you store the stuff, all of the exchanges, there's horrible security around all of that. why do you think that -- i mean, is that a thing that ever gets fixed? if not, how does this succeed? >> i think the answer to that is similar to the internet. the security for the internet is very horrible. and you know, we can always ask ourselves, will it ever be fixed? the answer, it's always going to be a process, a cat and mouse game. bitcoin's the same way. right now, it's early stage. a lot of high expectations for bitcoin that we as companies have had to come to terms with over a short amount of time. >> james gorman, not a bitcoin fan. your fearless leader. >> well, he's an excellent ceo, thanks for matching that andrew, great ceo. what he said is about understanding some of the mechanics and the question i

still don't understand is, you mentioned it, what bitcoin does for you as opposed to a bank money transfer. i still don't understand what does bitcoin do for you that a money transfer through a wire does, doesn't do? >> bitcoin, witness you have it you can send it anywhere instantly. it's very quick. it's so convenient. you know, you basically copy and paste an address. >> i can logon to my bank account, my online banking account and i'm not tech savvy, as my kids know. >> vis-a-vis the blackberry. >> i can logon and figure out and put a wire in, yes, it's lengthy, but i can wire money directly online, and i'm not tech savvy. >> yeah. you know, i think a lot of people need to feel pain points. what -- i mean the banking sector, sending a bank transfer, that's the worst competition. that is just so poorly done these days that bitcoin is a clear winner. >> you talk about pain points.

mount gox. >> you've watched companies who didn't do things right, i think fade away recently. and so we're working really hard. >> if i'm a consumer, how do i feel confident? if the brokers out there i don't know who's good and who's not, why would i trust my money with them? its the same question in the early district attorneys of the internet, people making transactions online, how can i feel comfortable make ang online payment? >> is it speed? in other words, if you're coming here, we're a private equity investor and pitching us on why to invest in bitcoin, is it ultimately speed and ease of transaction that is the selling point? >> it's price, speed. it's going to become cheaper and cheaper over time. like right now, look at bitcoin at its most expensive, and it's still way, way cheaper than any other -- >> if i use a credit card and buy something from a retailer and they send me the wrong product or it's broken, they refund my money, there's an

exchange, there's a tracing of it. with bitcoin, there's no putback. they have my money, could be game over for me. >> yeah, and it's hard to say how regulation's going to play out. where things are going, bitcoin should be looked at as digital cash. you pay for something with cash, you're not getting it back if something goes wrong. >> i've got wallet on my phone, the app, go to the starbucks, scan it some other vendors here -- >> that's fast too. >> we've been told this is the new wave of mobile payments. why is -- is bitcoin a competitor to wallet or is bitcoin -- >> it's a protocol that can be built on top of. >> i can use bitcoin with it? it's the currency i choose? >> that's the cool thing, in the past you've had closed payment networks. now people can have their own app but pay through a common

protoc protocol. >> knock mow toe, identified by "newsweek," is he the guy behind bitcoin? >> i think it's very likely it's him. >> really? >> hard to say. he does -- >> he just came out and said it was not him, lawyers put out a statement. >> that's what he would say. >> the guy didn't have the internet at home. the guy that created bitcoin, he lost the internet because he can't afford it. he's also fighting prostate cancer and has been or a couple of years. >> no one will ever know the answer to the question, it doesn't affect us, people starting companies in the space. but it's an interesting story. you know, he fits pretty much every characteristic that i imagine satoshi to have. >> thank you. now time for "squawk on the street". ♪ early bird special, jim. good morning, welcome to "squawk

on the street." i'm scott wapner with jim cramer live from the new york stock exchange. taking a look at futures, looking a little bit better than last week ended there's the dow with an implied open up 77 points. s&p, nasdaq looking like they both will be positive as well off the open today. take a look at the ten-year, the story last week and the yoeields at 2.66. that will be closely watched, as will the european markets. take a look at what's go on in europe. no red on that screen. all green across the board. that's certainly helping our market look pretty decent, at least implied, off the open. road map today starts with the markets. set to start the week on a positive note. poised to turn around their worst weekly losses since january. ali baba announcing it's selected u.s. over hong kong for listing of its initial public offering. it would be biggest ipo since facebook. and ncaa brackets