we'll see if she has surprises up her sleeves. >> i'm watching industry guidance from the fed. but the stress test results that come out on thursday. the fed is stressing for interest rate risk. you could get some smoke signals about how exactly those are going to be moving. >> got it. guys, thank you for being here. it's time for "fast money." melissa lee is back in the saddle. >> thanks, kel. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square on this st. patrick's day. i'm melissa lee. our traders are steve grasso, brian kelly, dan nathan and guy adami. and the mother load coming for apple. our top story, stocks kicking off the week in rally mode. there isn't a lot of conviction behind this move. the total trade and volume today, the second-lowest of the year. is all the drama over russia, china behind us or not? and the v.i.x. was down a lot. >> there's fear going into the weekend. people knew it was going to

happen here. but in a way, i think equity investors kind of repositioned a little bit. they took some profits. last week, we saw some momentum names get hit hard. winn and tesla. and they battled healthily today. the price action is not that surprising. the s&p 500 today, up 90 bips or something. made back half of last week's loss. i don't think this is one of the things, pound the tables we're going to new highs right away. >> the other thing is yellen, the fed meeting. and "the wall street journal" had an interesting piece saying the last time yellen spoke, the markets went up. >> no one is going to get in front with sell pressure. no one is going to get in front of what is to be expected. i'm right on dan's page here. we thought the market would bounce back today. thought it was going to be a relief rally. does that mean you get long now? absolutely not. you sell into this. >> how about you? >> i don't know if you sell quite yet. i think for the time being, you've got china and russia and

crimea off the table. china came out with a ministimulus program. we had a default in china over the weekend. we were up almost 200 points on the dow today. i don't necessarily like buying at the highs. i would buy on a pullback for a shorter-term trade. i would call this the high of the storm like we saw two months ago. >> factory production could also be good. we finally got through the weather. and we saw pent-up demand. >> it was good. i'll give you that. but the data's been mixed, at best. it's been that way for a long time. i'm in the camp, now, i think this is a critical week. you get these every once in a while. we're in the beginning of what could be a broader market. i think it's going to tell the tale of the next 75 to 100 s&p points. we're going to take the high we made in the last couple weeks or we're going to fail and attest 18/18-ish. and the next points are down.

this is the week. i think the big story is china. >> right. >> exactly. >> i'm going to take issue with brian o'kelley over here. >> yes, nathan? >> china and russia, the markets don't feel squeezey. they feel crashy. you would have expected russian equities up 3%, 4%, 5%. they're down 25%, coming in to today. so, they feel more like they have the potential to crash, than they do squeeze on the upside. >> that's why i'm saying, more on the storm. look at what happened with the financial crisis here in the u.s. february in 2007, that it actually started to happen. but it wasn't until the fall of 2008 that everything fell apart. this is a slow-moving train wreck. >> you have time for china to really unravel the market? >> absolutely. that's what i'm saying. in the very short term. not in the next two weeks, we have room to make money on the long side. >> if you know something is going to unravel the market, the market is the best leading indicator. the s&p 500 is six to eight

months ahead of what his worry is. you don't have as much time as you think. if the market, which starts the price in china on the back of a relief rally from russia, you're sort of on borrowed time. we have light volume. can we tick up to 1900 to confuse everybody and trade straight off again? that's probably what the market does. it sets up to hurt the most amount of people. >> let's talk about the sectors that did the best today. technology, financials, industrial, no surprise. if we believe that the rally is a false rally, do those sectors fall the most? >> i don't know if it's a false rally. it surprised me the magnitude of the rally, yes. i didn't think we'd be up 18 s&p. but light volume, not a lot of people today. think the rest of the week is the tell. don't want to get faked out today. will they lag? financials have lagged. recently, they came back. there's a couple names we talked about forever, that have done extraordinarily well. technology, you can't broad base

it. beaks like microsoft. i think some of the cloud play has showed they tested the lows in there. rallying again. >> a lot of the old-school technology names did quite well today. your microsoft, ibm, also. >> there's a couple of different things going on. one, you get a nice dividend. they haven't moved that much. and number two, the names i'm buying, we'll talk about it later, there's a catalyst coming. there's a reason why their earnings might be better, besides just a better gdp. >> let's talk about what else moved today. general motors issuing a new round of recalls. 1.5 million vehicles over air bags. the stock is rallying today. does this mean the worst is behind the stock? we got the details from chicago. bill? >> 1.5 million in recalls. that's separate recalls. not all of them related to different issues. we'll talk about that in a

little bit. the $300 million charge for the first quarter, that's to take care of the repairs for the ignition switches. as well as for these new recalls that have been announced. three, separate ones totalling 1.54 million vehicles impacted. also today, we heard for the first time since the recall crisis began, from ceo mary barra, explaining that she knows the severity of the situation. >> as a member of the gm family, and as a mom with a family of my own, this really hits home for me. we have apologized. but that is just one step in the journey to resolve this. >> take a look at shares of general motors over the last two weeks, which, it's been horrendous. that's intraday and moved up higher. over the last few week, it stabilized here. what's interesting, is three separate firms put out noes today. all of them said the same thing, these sell-offs tend to be overdone. gm's market share, 17.8%

year-to-date. that's the lowest we've seen in a long time. the question is whether it stabilizes or drops off as a fallout further because of what's happened with all of the recalls over the last couple of weeks. >> it's guy. i'm not asking you to be stock prognosticator. gm inventory's north of 100 days inventory. >> right. >> does that give you any reason for caution here? just in terms of the industry at a macro level? >> obviously, you don't want to see it that high. let's see what happens in march. almost all of the automakers have had high inventory through the first two months. the question is, do we see it come back as everybody has been forecasting, through march? i talked to a couple of dealers who have seen brisk business. no one is stampeding through the front door. but they've seen it pick up in january and february. if that continues, you see the 105-day supply come down. >> phil, thanks for that report.

phil lebeau, joining us from chicago. the other part of the note that phil cited is saying that while the risk to more sell-off because of recalls is limited, the upside in terms of valuation is also limited by the turnaround, which is lagging its peers. it's a gm issue. but it's a fundamental issue, not a recall issue. >> if you look at the price action, dan made a note of this morning. you look at the price action from the 11th. you saturday to see going into the close, that was the big down day. into the close, the stock was sold off. you got a chance to see what institutions are doing towards the closing bell. today was the first day it didn't tick lower. it ticked higher. >> it was in line with the rest of the automakers, because of the number within the numbers. >> gm is a trade from the auto trade as a whole. if i wanted to get in the auto trade, i would buy ford over gm. that being said, it seems like gm has its hands around it. you could get a bit of a rally.

>> i'm not so certain that ford over gm. the data that we got in february auto sales, gm took market share. they had a good number after a slew of monthly bad sales numbers. if you get on the first day of april, coming up soon, if you get a better-than-expected sales number and they take market share again, i think you see gm back 36, 37. i'm long with the risk. i own in the money calls. they were cheap. and that august low, if you look at the chart, that's the level it stopped on a dime late last week, and that's where it holds. >> he called him danny boy. you don't think i caught that. >> i did. i didn't know that at all. >> in the spirit of his holiday. gm is also more expensive. it's also more expensive valuation basis. >> ford has not traded well for a while now. i think gm, we talked about it. the help 34 did. i think it's interesting. with a 34-ish stop, i think gm

sets up well. it's the levels we traded down to in september and october. looks like we want to do it again. the downstream plays have been better all along. gm against 34 looks interesting to me. would you do this to your new iphone? we've got the company that inked a new deal with apple a few months ago. it makes this sapphire glass. shares are up 100% so far this year. the ceo of g.t. advanced technologies joins us here on set. we know we're not the center of your life, but we'll do our best to help you connect to what is.

♪ apple manufacturing partner g.t. advanced technologies is off to a great start in 2014. up nearly 100% in the past few months. the company is now expanding its business. on friday, they announced a new product called merrilin. joining us is tom gutierrez, president of g.t.ed vanced technologies. i want to start with the apple

part first. a lot of the goins is now that you're an apple play. what can you tell us about the mesa, arizona, plant. and when will it come online? >> not surprised you're starting there to begin with. a couple of things are important about it. a commitment to have jobs back in the u.s. it is a sapphire manufacturing facility. that's all we've said about it. it is a rather sizable operation. we have 1.4 million square feet under roof. and what we reported on our last call is, we're probably going to hit 100 employees as a company, by mid year, which is a lot for g.t., as you know. and we've received two of the four prepayments they were going to make out of the $578 million they were going to invest. and things are going well. >> when will it be up and running to full capacity?

can you tell us that? >> i can't tell you that, unfortunately. as you can imagine, in this industry, surprise is an important element of introducing products. anything that deals with what we're making, with the speed up, and all of that, is somewhat offlimits. >> but this year is the target year. 2014 or 2015? >> we're spending time ramping the facility up. >> i want to ask you about. but analysts out there are putting this into their models, of course. investors need to understand this. pacific crest basically said they don't think this would be favorable margin-wise because the margins would be low 20% gross margins. and would limit your ability to sell to other customers outside of apple, exclusive. to address that, do you think there could be margin pressure? what do you expect? >> this will be a lower margin. the unique nature of what we're doing for apple, and we're the only ones in the world that can pull this off, put us in a good

position. we're not going to be selling commodities here. we're making good margins. but the fact of the matter is, the margins are below the margins that we get for our equipment. and one of the stories on friday, when we had our technology day is, this is not just apple. this company has got -- we introduce products that will drive incremental market over the next three to five years, all equipment products in different sectors we've entered in the last three to four years. >> the quarterly report in february wasn't great. and i don't think guidance was great, either. what you did say, specifically was, you hope to be profitable in the second half of this year. so, is that hope predicated on the hope that mel asked you, that facility being up and running in the second half of this year? >> our sapphire business will be about 80% of our total business this year. but that comprises the

equipment. one of the rumors out there, we can't sell equipment to anybody else, that's not true. the technology that we've developed for growing sapphire and the ancillary that goes with it. we're going to sell others and we're quite busy right now putting equipment in place. second half of the year, we should be in a position to add equipment revenue, as well. >> want to ask you about the solar business. there's been such a boom and then bust. people aren't focused on the efficiencies and the technology driving the solar sector. where are we in that cycle at this point of the recovery? are we on an upswing in sole center. >> i think it's on the backs, unfortunately, of profitability of people that are making the panels and the cells. and so, it's always been a cost issue, in my mind, that sooner or later, as the subsidies go away, the cost has to go down.

and we spent very much of the last year or so, working on this new technology. it takes away all of the silver and makes it lighter. makes it -- brings the balance to system costs down. i think we're really on the verge of some self-sustaining solar industry, where it sustains itself because the costs have come down because the appetite for solar is definitely there. the facility in arizona is going to be 100% solar and geothermal-powered. that's one of the commitments that apple makes, they want to be green. >> i have one more question i have to ask you this. i know you address it at your meeting on friday. your stock sale, you sold about half of what you owned in gtat shares on thursday, march 18th. 213,000 shares. >> the entirety of the stake in the company is not visible. i have approximately 2 million

shares of equity. that's on the line for me. in addition, to four-times my annual salary, which is a requirement, for me to hold in the company. and so, i've got the bulk of my personal wealth tied up in the company. and believe me, i believe in this company. i believe in its future and its continued growth. these sales are mostly governed by a 10-d plan and takes the decisions out of my hands. i have a lot of skin in the game. >> tom, great to see you. tom gutierrez, president of gtat. a monster of a stock. what a story it's been. >> monstrous stock with new products that could be multiple of revenue coming for them. certainly justified to be up this much. how do you trade it here? if you're long it, basically, the way i would trade it is, you take your last consolidation

loan and use that as the trailing stock. next time it goes up again, take the next consolidation zone. and take it all the way up. at 100%, it's hard to buy. dan nathan's not buying the ali baba hype. and why the iphone 6 could represent the motherload of all apple upgrades. the analyst behind that call is later on. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai,

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ask your doctor if you live in or have been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. take the next step. talk to your doctor. this is humira at work. ♪ time for today's top trades. first up, yahoo! big gains as ali baba has listed its ipo here in the united

states. it could raise up to $15 million in the biggest initial public offering since facebook. >> yahoo! owns 24% of it. they're going to have the biggest ipo ever. >> do you sell yahoo!? >> to me, i got short. >> stepping on you a little bit. >> i want to know. people want to know. >> i think 40 could be some significant resistance. i think you sell the news here. i bought puts today. as a near-term bet. i don't think we're going to see an s-1 in ali baba for a bit. this company, they're in china. and china, the economy there, it's murky right now. >> that's interesting. i have a question. i like when we get everybody together. >> that is nice. inclusive. >> should we be concerned -- and i'm throwing this out there. that ali baba chose to list in the united states.

>> in french. >> that's mandarin for united states? >> are they concerned with the state of their markets? or what's going on? just throwing it out there. >> they want institutional investors. and the biggest institutional investors are in the united states. >> they couldn't get that over there. they wanted to control the company. they were able to set it up if they bring it here. >> what was the conspiracy? the company was so bad they were coming over here. >> when did i utter the word conspiracy tonight? under armour rallying after the company announced a two for one stock split. >> i don't like to buy on stock splits. those are to make it more attractive to retail investors. i don't think other high-price stocks have had a problem. i would not be a buyer of under armour. and if i shed out and i go to nike, i'm not really sure i want to buy nike, either. both charts look toppy to me. >> what does that mean to shed

out? >> if you sell one and buy the other. i'm sorry. first day of trading? [ rimshot ] >> also a takedown. wow. time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. pop for jay solar. >> luck of the irish. blowout earnings and good guidance. however, i would take my profit on this. >> drop for herbalife, down 8%. guy? >> listen, i don't know how this is going to play out. and i absolutely don't know how to trade the stock. i don't think anybody does. i think there's a really good chance that bill ackman is correct in his assertions all along. and maybe karl, who we love, overplayed his hand. >> pop for qualcomm. >> news they're going to acquire lte.

the high-speed phones. the upshot is, qualcomm has a portfolio that should benefit the stock. it's back at the 52-week highs. multiyear highs. >> based on chip sales and royalties. >> drop for verisign. >> verisign drops a u.s. plant. they give up web address control. sounds like you're pricing on a monopoly on web address. i don't think that's it. they have other businesses. the market's interpreting that's the only business. the stock looks like it's in freefall. i would not be a buyer of this just yet. wait until it makes a higher level. >> and a pop for earthquake face. this morning's earthquake in los angeles caught one news team by surprise. the ktla was broadcasting live when the quake struck. luckily it was more shamrock shake. but the anchor's reaction went b viral. and he updated his twitter

avatar that captured his earthquake face. >> i don't want to be mean. >> you should be used to it if you live out there, right? >> yeah. i mean, that is -- >> i had earthquake face on that qualcomm thing. >> that was your own doing. coming up, a huge day for the markets. explaining why today's rally can't be trusted, after this break. and move over iphone 5. the mother lode of all apple upgrade cycles is coming. the analyst behind that call will join us.

♪ welcome back to "fast money." we're at the nasdaq market site here in times square. despite the rally, he's not convinced you should buy tomorrow. let's bring in dennis gartman, live in san antonio for us. dennis, how are you? >> it's good to be here in texas, the strongest economy, as it was just said here in the united states. >> in french, all right. let's talk about your stance on stocks. i believe you were long equities and short crude. now, you're thinking the s&p could pull back 5% or so from

here. what has changed from the last time? that was a week and a half ago. >> i've been net bullish of stocks for a long period of time. as everybody heard me say on the show before, in a bull market, there's only three trades that one can have. really long, pleasantly long or neutral. i think it's time to be pleasantly long. not aggressively. especially after a rally today. you don't want to buy this kind of market, after being up 165 dow points. it's still a lower left market. don't go out and buy it today. probably don't go out and buy it tomorrow. buy any weakness and you're going to get 3% or 4% decline. but the trend is still from the lower left to the upper right. >> dennis, what has you more concerned? it's russia day-to-day. but it's china macro. what has you more concerned? and how do i play it across the whole board, though?

it's commodities, commodities, commodities. no one wants to buy anything related to oil because oil has declined so precipitously. it's telling us something going forward about global growth. >> i think the problem with the crude oil market. >> and crude oil has more to go on the down side. the front months are leading on the down side. they don't bounce on the up side. whatever the term structure acts that way, you want to err on being bearish. i wouldn't be surprised if after last week's test of the spr, i wouldn't be surprised if we see the president come out and announce a sale from the spr. the only tool that he had, the only weapon that he has against mr. putin and he has to probably use it, and the american public would actually like that. i think that's what the crude oil market is telling you. and i think the weakness in the term structure in crude is telling you. yes, i think that china is the greater problem. the situation in russia, and in crimea, will evolve and make its way back from page one on the top of the page, to back to page

32 by the end of the next several weeks. that's not going to be a real problem. the real problem for the world is what is going on in china and how substantive is the weakness in the economy there? >> dennis, it's b.k. >> beaks. >> i don't speak french. my question is going to be in american. that's what i speak. i see you selling long bond futures. can reconcile being short the bond market with a pullback in equity markets? >> why not? i'm selling the bond market. i'm bearishly attacking the bond market by selling the tenure. that's the bear spread. i'm not just outright net short of the long end. i think you want to be short the 30-year and long the 10-year. it's the bearish trade. there's plenty of times when you have interest rates moving. you can have interest rates moving up and stocks moving up. you can have interest rates moving up and stocks moving down. the correlation is not as 1/1 as so many people want to think that it is.

i can easily imagine stock prices quietly moving sideways. maybe trending a bit down. but the tend is being from the lower left to the upper right. at the same time, taking the long end of the curve, rates at the long end of the curve, another 50 basis points higher over the course of the next year and a half. easily do that. it would surprise me if that didn't happen. >> dennis, enjoy san antonio. good to see you. >> always will enjoy san antonio. it's good in spring here. not spring in the east yet. >> certainly is not. dennis gartman of the gartman letter. what's your trade here in emerging markets? >> in the emerging markets, you can buy eem. that's the way to play this. you had all of the china news has been priced into this. with the eem, you get china, russia, brazil. you don't have to worry about the russian market-looking week. >> you're going to let him do that? >> i'll say what i want to say. >> i'm not stepping in right yet. i don't think we have

resolution. and i disagree with dennis a little bit. i do not think the crimea is going to -- >> you're still short here? >> i'm short germany. but i'm long russia. i'm playing some things got overold. i don't think eem is oversold yet. >> mike warner follows the country's banks. he's in town from hong kong. joining us here at the nasdaq market site. your latest note points out, interestingly, i did not know this. the chinese banking system has more capital, excess capital. but risk-weighted assets are not reflected accurately. when the dust settles, where does that leave the system? >> how many of the assets are going to come back on? it harksens back to the citigroup. how they took the hedge fund assets back on the balance sheet. some of the assets that's been credited, has been going to come back on the balance sheet of the banks. the banks won't be asked to back

it. the banks look pretty good right now. even if you account for those assets that are going to come back on the balance sheet. >> you made the comparison to what happened here in the united states. you point out that ccb and icbc should have capital after the risks are adjusted for. is there a bear stearns within the chinese banking system that will cause a ripple effect? >> the bear stearns, the lehman brothers, the companies leveraged 30-1, you don't have that in china. china is a simple financial system. we see that it's simple loans. you don't have security products. very few derivatives. from that perspective, from a liquidity perspective, you're not concerned about a deleveraging event. >> bill is short on chinese banks. what is he seeing? and what are you seeing?

where is the disconnect here? it seems like those are two big calls. >> absolutely. the chinese banks, what he's most concerned about is growth in credit. especially from 2009 and 2010. we saw debt to gdp go 140% in 2008. today, it's 210%. a lot of that occurred outside of the banking sector. and the concern is what type of contagion are we going to see between the shadow banking system and the banking sector. i contend that the linkages aren't that strong. he's making contention that the banks are going to be asked to mop up the mess. >> you say outside the banking system. you say, for instance, in real estate. there's a real estate developer that's on the verge of collapse. it's giving a lot of debt it cannot repay to the banks. among them, one you like, ccb, which has 1 billion yuan in this debt. is that a cause for concern? you hear about the ghosttowns and the coast cities, et cetera. >> we saw corporation bond

default for the first time. a month and a half, we heard a lot of talk about a trust product that almost defaulted. we're going to see more of this as we go through this year. we're going to get more in the media. it offers good entry points. you're going to see volatility. news about default. something that hasn't happened over the past four or five years. the question ultimately is how great are the defaults going to be. how high are the lpls going to rise. there's some bears who think a lot higher. >> we hear more about there's another -- you're not worried about that. you say, buy your favorites right now? >> the question is the catalyst. they are cheap. they can be cheap for a while. that's something they have to look for. the catalysts are going to be market discipline. we see china kicking the can down the road. constantly repaying the debt with good money. if china stops doing that, and the economy doesn't crater like some people are concerned about, you would see a lot of value in those two particular banks, ccb

and icbc. >> thanks for being with us. mike warner in town from hong kong. guy? >> pretty cool. the question, did jim one-side the -- it's as far apart as two sides can be. i would tend to agree with chenos. but you have boots on the ground. the whole thing does scare me. the shadow banking thing. the fact there was a default a couple weeks ago scares me. it hasn't scared the market yet. >> we talked about copper and how much that's come down. what does that do to other products, other countries? we're looking at the yuan ban being widened. people are talking about potential derivative losses we don't know about. it's all about who has to mop this up. and if the banks are left holding the bag, that's a problem. it has yet to be released.

but the iphone 6 is one of the most-talked about tech products of 2014. brian marshall comes to explain why the size of the screen is its biggest selling point.

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welcome back to "fast money." breaking news, nasdaq ceo robert greifeld's released in an s.e.c. filing, 2013 total compensation jumped to $38 million. most of the increase was in a larger stock award. this, despite not winning twitter's ipo in 2013. keep in mind, nasdaq's revenue and earnings did grow in 2013 versus 2012. back to you. unimpressed with the iphone 5? the launch of two new versions of the iphone 6 will be the mother of all apple upgrades. let's bring in the analyst behind that call, brian marshall. it's the size that will drive the upgrade. that's primarily because of what? people generally upgrade the phones they have. it's the upgrade cycle that drives adoption. >> the market has moved beyond apple. apple used to innovate and lead.

now, we're behind the curve. you look at every smartphone out there from all of the competitors. we saw that in all of the world congress and barcelona. they have high-definition screens. 13 megapixel cameras. and android kit cat. they lack ios. there's a huge base that wants the larger screen. when i went to get the samsung, i got cold feet. chickened out. i couldn't migrate off of the ecosystem. we think this is going to be a big deal. >> before it was the upgrade rate. it dropped to 9%. what are you factoring in recooping some of the last upgrade? >> we estimate it's about 260 million units is the installed base. that used to upgrade about 10% to 12% of that installed base

every quarter. recently, it's gone down to single digits. why? because apple hasn't given us a compelling reason to upgrade. i consider myself a high-end consumer. i don't have the iphone 5s? why? i didn't feel compelled to go for the fingerprint sensor. i'm looking for the larger canvas. when we get that, and i think it will be soon, there's going to be a pent-up demand. and it could be 15% or more. it could be the highest ever. >> is it just ios users? there's 215 million installed base. if apple were to do as you suggest, and have the 13 megapixel, could they take some android share back? does that fit into your model? >> it's a possibility. i know a lot of people that migrated off itunes and ios, and they're coming back because they didn't like the android experience. we think it will be a 4.7-inch and a 5.5-inch.

give people a lot of options. yeah. we think that is a possibility, as well. >> it's tough. i disagree. you and i were both chickens to go to samsung. i had it for a test period, about a week. once you're in samsung, i think you're lost. you're not coming back. where are the margins now? we're talking about a bigger phone. we're always worried about margins with apple. does that put a bigger question to solve something else? >> that's the single-biggest question. this is a price-elastic market. every $10 comes down to smartphone space and results in 10% more units. that's a positive price elasticity factor. we want to see prices come in a little bit. then, that's going to impact margins. if to build materials is going to go up. bigger battery, bigger screen, that's going to cost more. i think apple has done a good job of migrating down the cost curve. our view is they can maintain gross margins in the 30s, from a

corporate blended average. probably the iphone margins, i think will remain in the 50s for the near term. >> is that why you kept the price target? the note sounds bullish. but the price target is remaining the same. why? >> the problem is, what happens after this? what happens after we get this ios or the upgrade? it becomes largely a recuring upgrade cycle story. they suffer from the law of large numbers. a victim of their own success. so, the biggest market they can go after is the 2 billion unit cell phone market. cell phones, as well as tablets represent 80% of the company's gross profits. even if they do watch this tonight, if they do a t.d., it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. it's a recuring upgrade cycle play, as well as a capital return allocation story. after 600, it's tough to see what the upside is at that point. where we are today, relative of 600, is a great return.

>> brian marshall, nice to see you. guy, trade this for us. >> september 2012, when it traded 703. and it doesn't trade great. a day like today, the stock should be up more than it is. can it trade at 600? yeah. we talked about 525 is your line in the sand. that's what you trade against. but at a certain point, you have to say there's a reason why the stock has underperformed. going on a year and a half. >> it actually trades well when the market goes down. it has a 3.4% dividend yield. the company bought 14 billion shares. it is like a utility. >> when was the last time apple ever followed? i think it's over for apple. how about that? it's a sell right here. >> wow. >> when was the last time apple had to chase somebody else? doesn't it feel like the whole story has changed? now, i'm chasing samsung's larger phone? >> let's dig deeper. are you shorting it?

>> i don't short stocks. if i owned it, i would be selling it. yes. >> aggressive. >> stevie is like -- >> make a call, for god's sake. i cut in on the music. i apologize. >> sticking with upgrades and upgrade cycles, michael kelly bought microsoft. i feel like we've heard upgrade cycle and catalyst from microsoft again. >> this time, it's different. here's the difference, i think, in this particular period. what they're doing is they are not supporting microsoft xp anymore. if you're a corporate i.t. manager and a virus comes along, you're hackable. the government is hackable, if you have expect xp. also, atms run some of this programs. you have to upgrade. i'm looking for stocks in this

environment, that people are forced to buy their product. microsoft, not only pays a 3% dividend, but it fits into that category. >> i would push back and say what if corporations are not -- if they have to migrate away from an operating system, what's to stop them from using the cloud and using google docs, for instance? >> one thing with the corporation. when you go government, atm, you're talking about buying all-new hardware, as well. >> push back on mel. i bought a bullish trade today. the technical setup is interesting. the sentiment is bad. if anything goes right for this company under the new management, you would break out the 14-year highs. and there's resistance. >> together. that's nation. >> way to go, danny boy. coming up next, the social stock, two different views. the options on the big moves in facebook and how to play it. ameriprise asked people a simple question: can you keep your lifestyle in retirement?

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tell me. >> bruce springsteen. forget it. jerk. >> seeing a nice rebound. and option traders think the stock could go higher. dan nathans at the smart board. >> the stock had a volatile day. but calls outpaced puts 2/1 today. look at this chart right here. the stock opened at 68 1/2. it went down to 66 1/2 and spent the rest of the day coming up. it had a wide range here. earlier in the day, when the stock was in the 67 -- just short of 68, there was a massive bullish roll. what is a roll? when somebody sells a lower strike and buys a higher strike. in this case, of calls. and somebody sold 46,000 of the june 65 calls and the june 70 calls. those break in at about 460 or so. this stock was underperforming this morning for no reason. this is today. a nice little spike here.

it had a matched low from a few weeks ago here. and then, when you look, that's a three-month chart, look at implied volatility. maybe the traders think they're rolling some of the view out. they're booking the games. but implied calls are as low as they've been. >> you can catch more "options action" friday at 5:30. check out the website. after the break, your first move tomorrow. stay tuned. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim

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fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. time for the final trade now. let's go around the horn. steve grasso? >> finish off where we started. general motors. i'm starting to think it is attractive here. now, i do not own the stock personally. you want to see a couple of days where it holds this level and has a higher low. and use 33 1/2 as your sell point. >> wow. it's only an hour show, grasso. >> got to be precise. >> my amd. you can combine bitcoins and stocks. >> dan? >> i think microsoft sentiment is so bad.

the options are cheap. >> a downstream aerospace. hexcel. >> i'm melissa lee. see you tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." have a great st. patrick's day i'm i'm cramer. i'm here to make you money. the short sellers, they overplayed their hand.