tv Mad Money CNBC March 18, 2014 4:00am-5:01am EDT
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my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. the short sellers, the nattering nabobs of negativity, they overplayed their hands. that's why the market roared today, the dow falling 182 points, the s&p jumping 0.96%, nasdaq climbing 0.81%.
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a huge day for the bulls. to understand this kind of rally, you need to look rally, you need to look at the market through the eyes of a gigantic hedge fund manager, one that takes huge swings that can impact the market, especially when there are so many like-minded funds doing the exact same trade. the average having done nothing so far this year and we're already middle of march and with the biggest move being that 6% swoon. the hedge funds, the ones that like to bet against the market, they're feeling mighty emboldened. these pessimists hadn't been hurt all that badly when the market rallies and declines in individual stocks have been pretty staggering, particularly industrials and the big negatives have been stemming from overseas and when it's overseas, not the united states and when it's overseas, the fear factor is usually much higher out of ignorance.
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it's a little silly that the proximate cause of this year's biggest decline was caused by some sort of problem in turkey or was argentina? i forget but i can google it after the show. second, the persistent cold weather has created such a negative backdrop that highly visible companies routinely missing the estimates, like most retailers, restaurants, apparel companies and the like. third, the biggest momentum names have certainly cooled. the amazon missing the revenue number, that was brutal. how about salesforce.com breaking down a terrific quarter. the short sellers can go after a lot of stocks if those two companies, umbrella companies, act squirrely. fourth, perhaps because it is st. patrick's day, today we got to demonstration throughout the whole show, we have to demonstrate froth, as usually frothy stocks, like plug power and fuel cell, not to mention some small biotechs, have taken the place of the higher quality tech stock leadership, as well as some of the biggest biotechs like gilead, which suddenly found themselves under assault. the professionals know this kind of froth is a real bad sign. i've said over and over again as long as the froth is contained
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to one or two portions of the market, then we're okay and you could even profit from the froth in the ipo market. more on that later. but suffice it to say the more senior hedge fund traders can't resist shorting all stocks when they see things are as frothy as they are. fifth is china. boy, china's become a mess. and we've never really known no one really knows what goes on within the people's republic. we don't trust the chinese, we don't trust their data, we don't trust their government. but we still make estimates on the reports they put out, industrial numbers and the like, and the estimates have all been too high since 2014 began. no matter what the chinese do anymore, they can't hit these estimates and yet weirdly the estimates continue to remain high. remember what has to happen to break the cycle of pain. first the estimates need to come down to a level where they can
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be beaten, and our stock market has to stop caring about china. those two things will occur simultaneously, but we're still not there yet, which is why the commodities and machinery companies have been free fire zones for all sorts of short sellers. they've become can't-miss shorts frankly. so it's within this environment that we've got the crisis in ukraine and crimea. given all the weakness and hand wringing about the slowing of global growth, i think it seemed to most hedge funds like the one sure thing would be that the market would take a real hit and tank after the crimean election yesterday that we all knew would be won by the russian faction. there's vladimir putin seeking to take over ukraine, or at least at least a part of it, lest it eventually join nato splitting the european flag and splitting the navy from russia. now i never like to make hitler comparisons, but this situation does look eerily similar to the run-up to world war ii, when germany was always charging that other countries were mistreating ethnic germans and then provoking those countries to take actions so they could go on the offensive. putin's a nicer guy than hitler, most backhanded compliment ever. and russia today is a minor
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league threat compared to nazi germany back then. but you have to admit putin is using hitler's play book in asserting ukrainian thugs are mistreating ethnic russians so therefore it's time to take action? then along comes secretary of state kerry saying if crimea holds a referendum this past weekend, there will be severe repercussions and the russians will have to pay for their transgressions against the free people of ukraine. since we knew there would be an election and we knew what the results would be ahead of time, you had to believe kerry would come in with some hard sanctions today that could both make putin retaliate again and cause russia's oligarchs to sell their western holdings, les they fear being confiscated. that fear of confiscation trade occurred all last week, you had to believe it would ratchet up not if but when kerry went ballistic on schedule today. so that seemed like a time to go short that's what the short sellers were expecting. but it's not how things played out. the first inkling things may
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have gotten to aggressive, where's crimea, where's the saber rattling, where's the stories? then we got word that russia had taken some gas facility on the border and i figured this is precisely the kind of action that the ukrainian army would respond to. the provocation that really got things going. but ukraine's army did not comply with what the shorts wanted. they did nothing and the "times" barely covered it. people yawn, caring much more about who was the first seed in the eastern conference and whether wichita state deserved first seed in the midwest. bracketology replaced kremlinology. the last straw came this morning when the european markets opened
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up and it was pretty clear that both europe and the united states went with the munich bottle while giving the short sellers nothing to grasp. no wonder the market went higher and started a little froth comeback today. the shorts were less scrambling when neither the u.s. or germany came in with anything punitive. the bottom line is that in the absence of something more cataclysmic from the allies and in the face of a decent u.s. economic backdrop, there's just no real good case to be short coming in today. so we get a rally that may be setting us up for the next putin inspired fall, one that's probably around the corner but alas, if it isn't scheduled like the crimean elections, the market is yawning and saying who
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cares. how about kristy in california, please. >> hi, this is kristy. booyah! >> i covered your area very closely. there was a woman, a checker in the supermarket put a hit out on somebody's husband. what a story. now it kind of dates me. go on. >> i have a brother that's a trader and a dad that's a holder. and they introduced me to the stock market and your show. >> okay. >> and so i did research on companies and i bought hawaiian airlines. >> hawaiian airlines is all right. i like alaska airlines more than hawaiian airlines because alaska airlines is a really well-run company. my favorite is and is going to remain american because of that merger with u.s. air and my second favorite is delta. there's no way we've heard the last of putin but until he's back in the news, it gives you a lot to rally with.
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>> coming up, lost in translation? wondering what's with all the froth talk? it's not about the head on your green beer. as stocks climb, wall street starts to question whether some have run too much. tonight cramer points to the places causing the most concern. find out if the worry could hit your wallet. >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc.
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we know 2013 was a monster year for initial public offerings and so far that year that pattern has held up, especially with the cloud computing and biotech ipos, not necessarily the companies that are already public, but the ipos, which have been forming so well that, frankly, it's gotten downright giddy, if not insane. i think a great deal of this biotech deals have gotten too hot to handle. i think they represent froth, similar to the heady froth that we have on this green beer today to celebrate st. patrick's day. but froth is not a great sign on the overall market, even if it is a great sign to have in your beer. however, when you catch the right ones, they've been making a big money, welcome castlight health. that's worth having a guinness over, maybe after the close. so tonight i want to take a look at this week's upcoming iposs to help you figure out which represent real opportunities here and which could be worth trying to grab a piece for maybe just a good trade. we are not recommending speculation, we're recommending
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trying to get some stock on the deal and then maybe -- >> sell, sell, sell. these are three cloud ipos coming soon, even though they'll be too expensive immediately. that's okay. we'll make money on the deal. first we have paylocity. this of this as a miniature version of workday, which has been one of the best performing cloud plays out there, even though it's pulled back of late. butch we stand behind workday. paylocity has this payroll business where it competes directly with old school pay roll processor looks paychecks and adp and paylocity has been pretty good at poaching business. also not just workday but cornerstone on demand has made you a fortune and paylocity is growing like a weed. best of all, these cloud plays are pretty much always extremely overvalued on traditional metrics because the investors are really just looking at the
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scale of the opportunity that the tam, total adjustable market that i teach you about, paylocity is supposed to be trading at $14 to $16 wednesday, and it's a discount to the group average of seven times sales and much cheaper than cornerstone sales because that sells at 10.5 times sales. if can you get a piece of the paylocity ipo, i say give it a chance. that's how these particular stocks trade, so a discount in comparison to the group makes for what i call a relative
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bargain, even if the entire sector is exceedingly expensive versus the average stock. we want in on an ipo to make that money. second upcoming cloud ipo is called globo force, which will trained the symbol thank, thnx! it's a platform that helps increase workforce engagement, raise employee morale. all while lowering stress. i had to bring that in myself. absenteeism and turnover. remember, turnover is one of those big hidden costs for all companies because it costs them money to train new employees. the way this works is the globoforce software finds employees that are doing well
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and rewards them. i can't believe they've automated this. they used to give you a couple hundred bucks and tell you to buy a suit. it has a lot of blue chip customers, 1.9 million users and it's taking share in the north american recognition market, expected to be worth 22 billion in 2016, stock is expected to price friday between 16 and 18. again, i think it's worth trying to get a piece of this one. the third upcome being ipo cloud that i like, it's q2 holdings, which will trade under the symbol qtwo. they provide all the bankwide needs of the consumers. basically qtwo is a play on the shift to online banking and the
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need by smaller banks to be able to match the desktops and offerings of larger competitors. qtwo tries to upsell the bank customers with various services like fraud potential, mobile pay. their platform already serves 334 banks. your bank's web site may be run by these guys already. qtwo is not yet profitable. last year it grew billings and the company expects 30% revenue growth going forward. i think the online and mobile banking business is a tremendous opportunity and qtwo has only begun to scratch the surface. because they've had such long-term contracts, five years and just low turn, 3.6%, the company has a ton of visibility.
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they can see how they're going to make their money oaf the years. growth and stock investors love that. that said we've seen a little selling by some executives here. qtwo is expected to price on thursday somewhere between 11 and 13. this is another upcoming cloud ipo that i would jump all over. >> these aren't the only cloud deals coming this week. frankly, again there's too many cloud deals. there are three more but those i'm not as excited been b. you have a-10 networks, which sounds like a basketball league, it helps companies that use propriety architecture improve their performance. they had a major setback when
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they got hit with a patent suit. and then there's amber road, come on, it has to be a beer, right? no, it imports and exports processes to simplify chain management. when nearly all the insiders sell and the company operates in an increasingly crowded market, that does tamp down my enthusiasm. finally there's border free, which provide as comprehensive web platform that allows american online retailers to reach international customers. but the environment is very competitive and border free itself has only 16 net new customers since the first quarter of 2012. my bottom line, as long as you acknowledge the froth, okay, you're investing in a frothy environment, right, then i want you to play one of this week's many ipos. these are the deals i think you should try to get a piece of.
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red-hot, paylocity, globoforce and q2. stay with cramer. >> coming up, if you think you missed the run, listen up. cramer is putting some new names to the test before they hit the street. don't miss his prognosis. and later, hot to trot? they're three of the most explosives stocks, all more than doubling in the past year. the one thing they have in common? you've called them to cramer's attention. but are they too hot to handle? all coming up on "mad money."
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on a day when the market rallied like crazy, how can you benefit from all the froth out there, all the stocks that are moving up at a pace so rapid, it's either ridiculous or straight up crazy. i don't think the market is frothy in general. certainly more frothy than this now flat guiness. brilliant! there's no denying there are some specific areas that are virtually overflowing with froth, namely the cloud computing and biotech ipos that have been going higher and higher and higher. people are worrying they are going so much higher and i've
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been worried myself. it's a sign we may get crushed. if it keeps going, it may be that way. personally i think that's taking the froth too far. so long as it's contained to a few areas and has to do with just pouring badly as opposed to learning how to pour like i did at the guiness academy in dublin, there's no reason for you to be concerned yet. in fact, i say why not look at the red hot ipo market as an opportunity while it goes on. even if you don't know where it all ends sometimes. you don't have to like the fact that these tiny biotechs are going public and skyrocketing in order to recognize the profit from it. why can't we profit from it? since the end of june, we have seen four biotech ipos that have more than doubled in value.
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and there are five more biotechs that have rallied anywhere from 34 to 90% since coming public in the last couple of months. for those of you who think this kind of action is a red flag, i'm not arguing with you. for those of you who think newly public biotechs are too hot to handle, i don't disagree. but you know what? we got a bunch of biotech deals coming this week and like it or not, i very much believe that the pattern of smoking hot ipos in this sector will continue for at least another couple of weeks. why waste good green beer? that's all you need to make a killing in these initial public offerings. there are three major biotech ipos this week but i'm on giving
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you my blessing on one of them and that's a company called mediwound. their lead candidate is nexobrid. now this therapy was approved but needs more time in the united states for approval. and esherex removes dead tissues on diabetic foot tissue. it just entered a phase two trial and is still a ways off from being potentially approved. mediwound is going to be a big company. the deal is expected to price on thursday between $14 and $16 and at the mid point would have a market cap of $316 million. that's way below what we talk about on the show. you have to approach this one with care, it very speculative. if you can get a piece of it as part of the ipo, then i'm blessing it. why not? i want to you make money.
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we know these biotech deals have been on fire. that's not enough for me. i'm telling you to go with this mediwound. some of it is because the main product represents a great leap forward when it comes to treating burn victims but it's been designated as an orphan drug, a drug for rare conditions that get all sorts of extra incentives and additional exclusivity and the price on the drugs tends to be sky high because there's nothing else
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that compete with this. nexobrid is the case for replacing surgery. this drug for removing dead skin in people with wounds could have an enormous effect. and when you're dealing with severe burns or diabetic foot ulcers, speed matters. i also like mediwounds's blood lines. the company's ceo spent nine years at teva pharmaceuticals. and they have a ton of relationships in the burn care community. you like that. but mediwound doesn't expect to turn a profit until 2018 when nexobrid comes up for approval. i'm recommending this as a trade ipo. even if it prices above the range, i think the stock will quickly trade up to 22 and get you a nice pop on trade. when you get that pop, i want you to take profits.
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when it comes to that, we're flippers not owner. i want you to make money. i'm not playing for them, i'm playing for you. there are a couple of other biotech deals you should watch out for this week, though i'm not as thrilled for them. you have akbeia company, developing a safe treatment for anemia. the current standard of care has nasty side effects, including fatalities. glaxo and beyer also have similar drugs in phase two. there are many other players
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after it and right now it is not in the lead. finally there's versartis, a biotech developing long-acting treatments for growth hormone deficiency. the lead drug candidate here would let children who get this condition weekly and monthly rather than daily, which is currently the standard of care. but the problem is that it's only in phase two trials, this company, meaning any real payoff is a long way and certainly uncertain. here's the bottom line. yes, all these biotechs represent the danger of froth. they are a dangerous level of froth but they'll also represent an opportunity to rake in big gains and we don't pass these up lightly on "mad money." that's why i think you should try to get in on the mediwound ipo this week. if you can't get in, just say you missed it and move on. brilliant! michael in illinois. michael. >> caller: baba booyah! >> back to you. >> caller: what do you think of
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ino, inovio pharmaceuticals. >> it's right from blue bell, pennsylvania. let me come back. let's go to freddy in tennessee. >> caller: this is freddy out of memphis, tennessee, home of the memphis tigers going into the ncaa with lots of energy. i want to know if arai has any energy left? >> no, i think it's kind of tanked, i do wish you the best with memphis. it doesn't figure real big in my brackets but maybe i'll throw my bracket away and start a new one.
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>> there's an opportunity in frothy biotechs. we have three next week. i think the only one we want to be in is mediwound. stay with cramer. tomorrow, kick off the trading day with "squawk on the street," live from post 9 at the nyse. >> i have the final four right here and believe me, my cold, dead hands you can't pry it from and this is it. >> it all starts at 9:00 a.m. eastern.
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yearly meeting, nordstrom, zill low. tune in tuesday for a special investing in america brewing innovation edition in seattle. and now it is time for the "lightning round!" >> sell, sell, sell! >> and then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready skee-daddy? it's time for the "lightning round." i want to start with austin in tennessee. >> caller: hey, how you doing, jim? >> all right. how about you, austin? >> caller: i'm doing well, doing well. all right. so i'm just starting out investing, about halfway through your book and me and my grandfather decided to invest in kate spade and co. >> i think it's real good. it's not as good as kors but that's okay. >> frank in idaho. >> caller: how about pgh?
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>> i think it will go higher. >> steven in utah. >> caller: i'm looking at the company cell therapeutic. >> we're not going to escape disease companies. there is so much to do. can i go to jen in maryland. jennifer. >> caller: hi, jim. my question is about zulily. i the old sold some shares when it went down 18 shares a week ago. now that it's cooled off, is it a good time to buy again? >> i wish it was a little
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cooler. it's a satellite based company. i'm not going to discourage anyone from buying it. i simply won't do that. lou in michigan. >> caller: a big st. patrick's day, proud of the ira booyah. >> i don't blame you. it's the luck of the irish. have some corn beef last night, having it again tonight. >> what's up with you? >> caller: aig. >> i think it's terrific. i want to own the stock. i need to go to steve in new york. steve! >> caller: hi, jim, and booyah from brooklyn. >> oh man, i'm in brooklyn constantly, what's up? >> caller: all right. my stock is prospect capital corporation. >> high yield but i regard the yield there as a red flag because beyond how they get it. i'm not going to go to one of those mezzanine kind of capitals. i think they're calling it mezzanine. let me be sure. i find when you get these kind of stocks and you have that big yield, it's tempting, i'm not going to play. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round!" >> announcer: the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade. ú÷a9oooúçññ4@úó2
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because this show is the most interactive show on television, i'm going to circle back to three roaring momentum some would say froth stocks that you viewers keep calling me about. why? because you deserve more than just off-the-cuff judgments on stocks that you think are important. if you think they're important, then i think they're important, even if i think they're frothy. and last thursday's lightning round i got asked about these three staples once again in rapid succession. dave in massachusetts called about gt advanced technology, ray in delaware wanted to know about sun edison and another
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dave in massachusetts, what are the odds of that happening, asked about insight. iny cy. now we're going to take a deeper dive into all three of these red hot momentum names starting with gt advanced technologies, a stock that has doubled and rallied about 500% in the last year alone. historically they have been in the business used to make solar and sapphire led products. mainly the reactors found in polly silicon and sapphire furnaces, the same way applied material sells equipment to the semiconductor history. the sapphire business has been heating up lately. do you know sapphire is the hardest material on earth second to diamond? it's scratch resistant and incredibly durable. that's why they used sapphire in the iphone 5s and these were a big driver behind the first leg of gtat's rally last year. the second leg of the rally came in november when relearned apple
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had partnered with them to build a sapphire plant in arizona. ever since that story broke, gtat stock has nearly doubled. people are speculating apple might decide to switch using corning made glass to using sapphire for a more expensive but really unbreakable touch screen. those of us who have had broken screens, many of my friends have, probably wish they were sapphire. now, if that happens, it would be a huge positive for gtat advanced technologies and the stock would head a heck of a lot higher than it is now. the problem is we can't be sure if apple is going to make that move. they're not telling anybody.
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the big question is whether gtat can produce the sapphire cheaply enough to replace corning. what's my verdict? they just had a strong product day friday that everybody raved about but the stock also has had an enormous run. while sapphire led is making big inroads, we can't be sure when it will start to replace engineered glass. i told you to buy gtat stock and that was wrong. i did it for high max and that was right. if you like the story, maybe you get a marketwide selloff and then you have my permission to buy gtat. the sapphire stuff is very real, though. next up we've got another one that i looked at a long time ago
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and forgot about. it's called sun edison, the symbol is sune. this has more than tripled since august of last year to 20 and change right now. you may not have heard of these guys until last june when they changed the name. this has changed from memc, and traded under wfr. they are the lead supplier to silicon wafers. they're planning to spin off a minority interest in the company's semiconductor business. in the past the company needed the semiconductor business as a
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cash machine to fund the solar initiatives. now the solar is doing so much better, they can afford to split off the semiconductor side as a separate company. this is the value unlocking breakup i read about in "get rich carefully." i think sun edison will get a much higher valuation without the semi-conductor division weighing them down. and it's also creating a yield vehicles that will use the cash they generate to reward investors with a sizable dividend. this company just filed for this yield co ipo a year ago. they make about 74 cents per watt. if they can get capital more cheaply and keep the solar
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project, they might be worth as much as $1.97 per watt. that's the point of spin offing this yield code, to attract more money with a vehicle that pays out regular dividends. it's fascinating. kind of a corporate finance genius. my view, i don't know, i would wait for the sun edison yieldco ipo and get a piece of it. that's where the opportunity is with this one. let's go to last but not least, that's insight. that's a $10 billion company that's rallied since last june. this is another momentum stock that looks outrageously expensive by most metrics. it is growing like a weed. they develop drugs that treat blood disorders, cancer and inflammation. they have one product for myelofibrosis.
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the stock has surged because this drug has been selling really well. this company has real sales. last year sales were up 73% since 2012. on top of that, insight has a strong pipeline where each of its compounds has several different shots on goal, including a pancreatic cancer drugs that's just starting stage three trials and drugs for colon cancer and breast cancer, too. insight is the opposite of a one-hit wonder. it has a very deep bench, and the company could start turning a profit next year. i think there's a compelling case that insight could go substantially higher from here based on the sales and the power of its pipeline. it's a good spec. here's the bottom line. you asked about these companies
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this market can turn against companies so brutally it takes your breath away. last week we did our show from an oil rig, it was built in '85 and with strong demand from several of the independents plumbing the depths of the coast of louisiana. we'll we were on the rig, we chatted with executives who showed us how day rates, the key metric, have been holding up really well. that's a big reason why they recently doubled its dividend. the conviction in the contracts enabled them to shell out a huge $3 yield payout. guess what? now they yield 6.23% and it's not because the firm raised its dividend again. it's because the wall street analyst community has determined that ensco are foolish and absurdly optimistic and they keep downgrading them. and sea drill, a similar company has been left totally for dead and it yields an astounding 11%. on the other hand, they have
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fallen head over heels for patterson uti. yes, it's absolutely true that there is more aggressive onshore drilling, mostly because of the phenomenal finds we talk about. here's what i take issue with, though, here's what i don't like. i don't like the new-found love for the onshore names because it comes after massive moves that have already been made! now with patterson uti up almost 18% we get this powerful goldman upgrade, now with halliburton up, we draw the phony attention of wall street? please! sea drill which has plummeted 18% can't get some break.
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transocean down now it gets despised? this action is precisely what i don't like about wall street. the analysts tend to be trend followers. and while the offshore plays are ice cold, i question the value proposition of the hot names. the companies may have yields that seem outsized but given that ensco cut its dividend, i'm not worried, they just raised it. you can go with what is steaming hot or you can go with value and wait it out until the big programs take in from brazil and mexico knowing you have these large dividends in your favor. you can draw it out. rich quickly. me? i'm happy to get rich carefully. i'd much rather by a balancing bottom than get eviscerated. stay with cramer. [ male announcer ] meet jill.
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it still cordoned off. i do like, by the way, that the industrials snapped back today. i hope it wasn't all short squeeze. it did seem to be heavily motivated by shorts covering, though. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise i'll find it right here for you on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. i will see you tomorrow! hello, you're watching "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. president vladimir putin makes crimea officially part of russia. the russian leader will address his parliament in two hours. stocks struggle with warning signs from china following weaker house price data and concern of a property firm default. new spanish slump, the board is urging shareholders to eject volkswagen in the shares saying the automaker is too
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