she says. >> see what she does did the threshold, right in the unemployment threshold. if that moves from 6 1/2 down to 6 maybe taken as a bullish sign in the market. let's do our final trades quickly. doc, what do you like? >> rdc. i bought it today. >> pete. >> hewlett-packard going higher. >> wendy's. wen. >> that's it for us. have a great rest of the day. and "power" starts now. good afternoon and welcome to washington, everybody. it is an historic day. one hour to go until the fed's decision. the first decision under janet yellen. 90 minutes to go until janet yellen holds her first press conference as the new chair of the federal reserve. i'm tyler mathisen here on a bad hair day in washington, sue, but it is a historic day. >> oh, you look great. and it is a historic day. i'm sue herera here at the new york stock exchange. the markets seem to be waiting for that 2:00 p.m. decision before making any big moves.

we've been in a very tight trading range pretty much all day long. >> all right, sue. let's talk a little bit more about what we might expect. as we get prepared for this press conference. >> you know, the market is going to be i think dissecting almost every word at the news conference. i think the news conference is where most of the news if there is news made will be made, ty, because they're going to be parsing her language, her body language, and steve liesman is going to be there. and he's probably going to get one of the first questions. steve steve? >> let's go up to you and see what you expect to hear from miss yellen. >> we can't count on that, sue. you just take your question when you're called. you raise your hand and you're either in or you're out here. but this is an important day here, the beginning of the yellen era. this is the term when the economy and the rates are supposed to normalize.

here's on the yellen agenda. end qe. reduce the balance sheet sometime after that. begin heightening rates the expectation in the market. sometime in the second quarter of '15. and then normalize rates. those last two are two separate processes. take a look at this graph. where does she start? she starts with zero rates. 1.1% inflation. and 6.7% unemployment rate. where does she have to go? on rates she goes to 4. on inflation up to 2 and unemployment down to 5.5%. this is what's supposed to happen. this is the longer-run outlook. watch for those numbers today and see what the longer-run outlook is when we get the forecast for the federal reserve. also looking at the fed's rate forecast very carefully, the 4% long run, some sense that could come down. looking for 3/4 of a percent in 2016. 1 3/4. 1 3/4 and 4% over the long run. yellen, however dovish you think

she is, is likely to be the fed chair who hikes rates for the first time in 2006. guys, today we begin a process of understanding how soon she's going to do it, how fast she's going to do it, and how far. tyler, sue? >> all right, steve. hang on there because we're going to broaden out the conversation with elon mul of the "washington post" and josh volk of the associated press. elon, you heard what steve just said. i'm going to take the conversation maybe a little different way. steve has laid out some numerical touch points there. i want you to speak to the stylistic change or differences that you might expect to see in a yellen fed and from janet yellen today from her predecessor. >> in terms of style, janet yellen is certainly a little bit more aggressive than ben bernanke. we saw that in the 2008 transfer where she states her case a little more boldly. she's a little more direct. and she's a little more plain spoken than ben bernanke is. you might expect her to be a

stronger leader in the committee. we'll see how much tolerance she has for some of the diverse t. of views that we've seen and that ben bernanke was so famous for accommodating during fmc meetings. >> even more plain spoken than bernanke. absolutely not a return to those greenspan days. josh, let me turn to you. do you think it's likely that miss yellen will be presiding over a more fractious fed, and do you think that will be because people will be testing her power or because the economy is in a different place where unanimity is less likely? >> well, the fed -- you know, it's not a crazy plot twist when we come out to these kind of press conferences and these big decisions but we know there is going to be division just because of the big choices that janet yellen has to make. that controversy is inevitable when deciding what to do with the economy in its current shape. >> ylan, what do you want most to ask ms. yellen during the

news conference? because i think that's going to be the focus of almost every reporter and almost every investor. so what do you really want to know from her or what are you going to press her on? >> i think what is the longer term outlook for rates? are they going to be lower than the 4% the fed has stated if there's a normalized interest rate? are we going to be looking at closer to 3.5 or 3.75% for rates? and also looking for beyond the first rate hike, how quickly might the fed move? it seems like there are several members who are thinking about multiple in 2015, not just one rate increase in 2015. just getting beyond the very first move, what is the path going forward? the biggest question is how much thought was the fed given to that path? right now there's a lot of uncertainty. they don't know exactly what they're going to lift rates. so how much this goes beyond that point remains to be seen.

that's what i plan to ask her about. >> guys, part of the problem is -- >> steve, i want to -- go ahead, steve. >> i was going to say the fed is a little bit of a victim of its own success here. after trying and kind of stumbling and failing to get on this ending qe path they're on a pretty good path here. our fed survey shows tremendous agreement and also consensus over the path of quantitative easing. so now that that story's kind of boring, we've all kind of moved on, what's 2015 look like? the how soon how far and how fast are the critical questions. i think it could be not as soon as you think, it could be faster than you think but not as far as you think. >> very quickly, steve, do you think the hawkish side of the fed is going to test janet yellen early? >> absolutely, tyler. this would be the time when you can find out how far you can go as a member of the opposition. and i think there will be some

interesting and fractious days ahead. maybe a few dissents ahead. and we'll see what happens. but the question becomes in the meetings down the road how yellen gains control of her committee. >> steve, ylan, and josh, thanks very much. it will be an interesting 90 minutes or so ahead for us. we'll be back with you of course later today. we thought right now we would take a look back at janet yellen's sort of trajectory and career and tell you how she got here. while this is her press conference this is by no means her first rodeo. in 1977 she became an economist for the federal reserve board of governors. 20 years later in 1997 she went to the white house where she was appointed chair of the council of economic advisers by president clinton. in 2004 she began serving as president and ceo of the federal reserve bank of san francisco. six years later she became vice chair of the federal reserve. and of course on january 6th of this year she was sworn in as

the first female chair, sue, of the federal reserve. >> indeed. so ty, let's talk more about what wall street wants to hear from ms. yellen. kenny, you wanted in on that last conversation, i could see you. i know. so tell me your thoughts. >> i think it's going to be very difficult. the street wants to hear the quantitative measures but it's going to be very difficult for her to be specific because how can you be so specific four or five years out? you can talk in generalities but you certainly can't say on this date it's going to be here, on this date it's going to be here. people that are expecting that much definition i think are going to be disappointed. people in the street need to hear the plan, a plan, what they're looking at. >> speak to me, abigail, about the volatility you that expect during that period of time. >> when i look at the chart, it looks as though there could be a brief euphoric moment where the market tops off but i more

expect we're still going to see a flight to the down side. i think the most important thing janet yellen needs to do today is really establish herself as a credible head of the fed where investors trust and respect her so that they can go forward and know that she is, you know, in charge. and i think we really need to still pay some attention to russia. we've moved from complacency to gloejs. the fact there was a violation of international law yesterday, the fed is almost nothing in my mind compared to that. >> the market could go right back to russia. >> it absolutely could. last week they were talking about china was going to tip the whole global economy right off the edge. meanwhile we don't even know how to spell china anymore. >> along those lines the yuan, the chinese currency, penetrated a very key support level to the down side, which could trigger a lot of liquidation in certain financial instruments. >> but would you think that if that were true that you'd start to see some of that -- because we know, that right? that's happening now during our trading day.

you would think some of that might start to filter through. i don't see, that right? >> when you look at the currency market that's where i still think there's the biggest volatility returning to the topic of volatility. all the central bank accommodations coordinated by the central banks around the world make it a pressure cooker. if it ever comes undone it could really hit the stock markets in my view in a negative way in a way that yellen needs to be prepared to handle. >> so hedge your bets. thank you guys very much. now to a developing story. a new note from carl icahn. jon fortt's on the case and he's being very vocal once again. >> he is, sue, but in a different way. in this latest missive carl icahn is advocating for e bay spinning off 20% of paypal. a different position than the attacks on the board members and recommendation to spin out, all of it. this is interesting because it's a little bit similar to what emc did with vmware back in 2007, spun off 15% to the public markets. icahn argues this would unlock some shareholder value, would enable paypal to pursue more

talent and attract a board of top-notch people as well. i think what's missing in his argument but e bay hasn't articulated yet as i've said in the past, paypal has had some management challenges and some product challenges to get into order. i think some at e bay might argue nernltly maybe it's not quite ready to do this this sort of a spin in the way they would ideally like. but we'll have to wait and see how e bay chooses to respond, sue. >> and e bay is basically flat on the day right now. we will see. thank you, jon. up to ec and dominik chu with a market push. >> one of the best performers overall today and certainly in the s&p 500 is far and away first solar. the solar energy company up around 15% in session highs. holding its annual analyst day today. also announced it's partnering with general electric's power conversion unit to develop cost effective utility size you solar power plants. that's a mouthful. some traders are noting it could

be the result of a short squeeze. nevertheless the stock is up in 2014, 125% over the past year and they did offer some upbead sooilz guidance although earnings guidance made it below some expectation. back to you. >> we'll see you again in a couple minutes. two big stories in the world of transportation. and our phil lebeau, who's been a very business why guy lately has more. >> toyota slapped with a big fine from the department of justice. not only what does it mean for toyota but what does it mean for general motors which is also dealing with its own recall issues right now. and new developments when it comes to the malaysia air flight 370 search. we'll have those developments and both stories when "power lunch" returns. lunch" returns. opportunities aren't always obvious.

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welcome back to "power lunch." shares of starbucks popping. the company highlights really are come out of their annual shareholder meeting. ceo howard schultz is pointing to the company's record profits and sales and they're aiming still to double their market cap to around $100 billion in the future. he also mentions the company's unique combination of physical and digital assets, ability to deliver long-term global growth through the lens of humanity he says. still 2 1/2% to the up side tyler not too bad for a big coffee company like starbucks. back foup. >> no, it's p. and i hope you all got the chance to see jim cramer's interview with howard schultz this morning on "squawk on the street."

and later today jim is in seattle. he'll be reporting on that company. talking to the heaved j.w. nordstrom and more. it is a special edition of "mad money" there. you see schultz, nordstrom, rascoff of zillow and dr. clay siegall of seattle genetics. all on "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. with jim cramer in seattle. toyota shares are moving lower at this hour on news that the company will pay more than a billion dollars to settle a justice department probe, a criminal probe into the company over those cases of sudden and unanticipated acceleration of their cars here in the united states. remember a couple years ago. so the question is what will this settlement do to ge -- excuse me, to general motors and its own problem that the justice department and the transportation department are looking into. phil lebeau is on that case and more for us from chicago. >> tyler, this is the largest fine ever levied against an

automaker by the department of justice, and when you look at what toyota will be paying and going through it's a whopper of a penalty. $1.2 billion. they will be on probation for three years. toyota has also agreed to an independent monitoring firm to monitor how they implement safety protocol. there is no prosecution for toyota. if it complies with these terms. now, toyota recalled more than 10 million vehicles for unintended acceleration back in the 2009-2010 time frame. but the u.s. attorney says the problem went on before that. according to the u.s. attorney, when toyota had these problems and the recalls came about, before that even happened toyota repeatedly lied about the problem. >> and in that moment in a misguided and ill-advised effort at crisis management, toyota made the fateful decision to mislead the public to protect its brand. rather than come clean, the company covered up and misled again and again and again. >> the toyota case raises

questions about general motors and how it's handling the recall of faulty ignition switches. gm has hired a former u.s. attorney to investigate what went wrong at the company. today attorney general eric holder was asked the gm investigation. he wouldn't comment. but he did have a clear warning for gm and other automakers. >> it's a sign for the industry that we take these matters seriously. individuals, corporations will be held accountable. there is great work that's been done by this team that can be replicated if that's yez. >> and by the way, we should point out, mary barr, the ceo of general moltars was asked yesterday has she talked with the u.s. attorney's office yet regarding the investigation. she says she has not but she is ready to cooperate if she is contacted. tyler? >> phil, let's turn to that other big story, the ongoing mystery of malaysia airlines flight 370. what do we know now? what's new? >> well, two things.

one, they're looking at the simulator, the flight simulator that was in the pilot's home. one of the pilots' homes. he had built a simulator. and in fact malaysian authorities today indicated that they have taken control of that simulator. essentially, they're looking at some of the lost data that was in there. local and international expertise has been recruited to examine the flight simulator. some data has been dheeted from the simulator and forensic work to retrieve this data is ongoing. the passengers, the pilots, and the crew remain innocent until proven otherwise. for the sake of their families i ask that we refrain from any unnecessary speculation that will make their lives harder. the fbi has also been given copies of the captain and first officer's hard drives from their computers in their homes. those hard drives, those are just copies. the hard drives themselves still remain with malaysian authorities. and did you see this video? this morning when they were giving an update on the investigation, pandemonium broke out because of the victims' families, clearly frustrated

that they're not getting any information. they are wondering if the government is withholding information about the investigation. the malaysian defense minister then asked secretary hagel from here in the united states how to deal with the public backlash. here's the attorney general this morning talking about what the u.s. is doing in terms of assisting the malaysians. >> i think we are still in the process of trying to determine what happened there and we're helping in any way that we can. we are in ongoing conversations about how we can help, and we will make available whatever resources that we have, whatever expertise we have that we might be able to be used. >> so the latest news, copies of the hard drives from the homes of the pilot and co-pilot come to the u.s. where investigators will look at those hard drives, see if there's anything on those hard drives that could shed light on what happened to flight 370. >> that video this morning when i saw it of that mother asking where her son was was

heartbreaking. >> heartbreaking. >> heartbreaking. let's hope they find some answers, give them a little bit of information. phil, thank you so much. appreciate it. it is the two-year anniversary of apple's dividend announcement. we go through the biggest dividend tech names with you and look at payouts this year. that's ahead. plus -- >> coming up, a power pitch on the links. the world's first hollow metal golf ball. swinging to take on the golf industry. will it be a hole in one for all the panelists? >> it's a risky play for me. >> or will it be buried in the bunker? the final score when we return. . up late. thinking up game-changing ideas, like this: dozens of tax free zones across new york state. move here. expand here. or start a new business here... and pay no taxes for 10 years. with new jobs, new opportunities

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s. welcome back to "power lunch." k.b. homes is up 8% on the day. earnings better than expected and sales as well. it also said average selling prices for its homes rose 12% to $305,000. k.b. home focuses more on first-time home buyers than other builders do. the strength is carrying over into names like lennar, pulte, d.r., horton. all among the best performers in the s&p 500 so far today. tyler, back over to you. >> dom, thank you very much. it is time for our weekly wednesday segment the power pitch where founders of companies get 60 seconds and just 60 seconds to convince a panel of experts that they have the next big thing.

>> we've got three patents on it. our tag line is you just became a better golfer. >> jack nicklaus once said a perfectly straight shot with a big club is a fluke. we're here to change that by optimizing the only piece of equipment you use on every single shot, a golf ball. this is what you've been using for the last 30 years. and this is what you'll be using the next 30 years. the benefit of our hollow core technology are simple. straighter shots off the tee into the green and a truer line on the putting surface. just swing and let the ball dot the rest. the global golf ball market is an estimated $1.5 billion. with a product that's the first and only one of its kind that's been tested and showed quantifiable performance enhancements as well as its prototype being named the top five product in 2013, we expect to capture 3% of the market

share. 15 million in revenue and a projected 20 million of ebidta. exceptionally low overhead and outsourced manufacturing allowing to us generate profits through product sales, private label arrangements and technology licenses that would make our competitors our partners as well. >> i'm dominic chu on our power pitch panel is charlie rymer who spent more thain decade playing pro golf and placed third at the 1995 shell houston open. he's now the host of golf channel's top show "morning drive." we also have venture capital exist sports enthusiast david wu. he's a partner at maberon, the firm founded by starbucks ceo howard schultz, and he focuses specifically on early stage consumer companies. all right, guys. let's huddle up on encore. charlie, what do you think? i've got to wonder whether or not a new golf ball is really the way to break into golf equipment these days. >> in my 40 years around golf it seems like every year someone

has a product that's going to be longer, it's going to be straighter, it's going to make the game easier to play. i haven't seen a lot of those products brought to market. so for me i've got to know more about this technology. what does this golf ball actually do? i hear a lot of promises but i don't know any way that i can actually quantify that. >> david, you've got to figure if you're investing in a company why do it if it's such a commoditized product? >> i think it's an interesting idea. i'm curious how they're going to build a real brand going against all the big guys. >> brett, steve, you guys are now in the hot seat. all right, charlie. first question goes out to you. >> guys, i hear what you're saying, that the ball is straighter, that it rolls truer, but you've got to convince me. i need to know 34more about thi technology and specifically how much better is it for the average golfer? >> this is the first major innovation in about 30 years. there's been iterations of the dimple pattern, the mantle layer composition, but as far as the

core standpoint, the core technology, this is revolutionary. it's never been done. it's patented. it's only the second time since 1921 that the usga has altered its rules to allow a new technology in. so they clearly agree. we don't have the luxury of having a brand reputation. so we know if our product doesn't do what it says then the everyday average golfers aren't going to get behind it. >> you know when i walk down the golf aisle at the golf store or the golf shop, there are so many different brands there and so many different balls that frankly it's a bit intimidating. in fact, the brand promise of a lot of theelz balls is exactly the same. how do you cut through all that noise with a fraction of the branding budget? >> in our case our packaging is going to highlight an image of the hollow core cutout so the minute you see it you say okay, i've never seen a golf ball with that tag line, you just became a better golfer. so for a person who's never heard of oncore, when they go down the aisle they'll be intrigued and educated. we think that will be enough to get them to pick up the box and

the way it performs will get them coming back for more. >> i'm a golfer as well, i've been playing golf for years, i've got to say this is intriguing to me, the hollow concept here. what is it about this particular ball that's going to make me go out and spend my hard-earned money? >> if you have a ball that's going to give you a little bit of forgiveness, you will stand up on that tee and swing freer and looser and actually make a better shot. it's confidence really is what it comes down to. >> i think this product is so advanced technologically that you can broaden the appeal of our game, bring some people to the game that don't currently play? >> if you can have a little more fun out there and shoot a lower score, it's going to bring people into the game and keep people who otherwise would get frustrated and leave. >> you heard what bret and steve had to say. so are you in or are you out? charlie, you first. >> it's a risky play for me. because i believe in our game. i believe in innovation. i'm going to say i'm in. i hope these guys make p. >> one in. david, are you in or are you out? >> when i walk down the aisle i

generally want to reach for what the pros are earning tournaments with or the cheapest bag of balls. as much as i'd like to see these guys succeed i want to be out. >> i'm one of those golfers who like buying new equipment just to see if it works. i think a lot of other golfers are just like me as well. so when it comes down to it, this golf ball, new technology, i'm probably in. i'm in, guys. what's your reaction? >> thrilled. >> to get charlie behind us is huge. >> we feel we've got a good shot here. we've got two thumbs up. so we're happy with that outcome. >> all right. thanks so much, guys, bret and steve, and to our panelists charlie and david. and that's the power pitch. >> and that is the power pitch. two out of three. and if i could get two out of three of my shots in, that would be good. all right. are you in or are you out on power pitch? you can go on to powerpitch.cnbc.com and let us know how i feel about oncore golf or twitter on t the #powerpitch. sue? >> i would try it. why not? all right. we're going to focus on the

metals. they're closing right now. the gold market is down $18. take a look at the copper market. it's bouncing back right now. but overnight in the london session it hit a 3 1/2-year low. there was an unprecedented bond default by a chinese solar equipment producer. that's bringing up worries about china's economy and the expo exporters in particular. the yuan dropped. that ushered in some overnight selling in the copper market. but we have a bounceback. up to date on the metals. let's head uptown to the nasdaq where sheila is following the big movers ahead of the fed for us. >> everyone here of course is in wait and see mode ahead of the fed meeting. nasdaq flat on the day right now. but we do have lots of earnings movers to talk about. let's kick it off with oracle. that stock is down after the company reported disappointing revenue and also sales outlook for the year. remember, oracle is a business in transition. the company did show some signs

that its cloud business is accelerating but clearly investors weren't impressed and that stock is down today. adobe taking a hit after its earnings and this is after the company beat its earnings. analysts a little concerned about the transition to a subscription-based model and what it could mean for its market. sue? >> all right. chicago is going to be watching fed chief janet yellen very closely. so let's go to the cme and find out what bond traders want to hear from ms. yellen. from rick santelli. hey, ricky. >> yeah, sue, this is the epicenter of the subsidized interest rate market, isn't it? look at the intraday of tens. you can see we're up about four basis points. but get chart is the two-day. see yesterday's high yield, a whisker shy of 270, once we crossed over we definitely saw some covering up in front of the fed meeting. here we sit at the high yields of the day at 2.71. open the chart up to basically a one-month chart. it really jumps out at you. you look at the left side, there's a lot of wood up here that we need to get through between 2.71 and 2.76.

last chart. yes the dollar index is up on fed day but only a whisker and still hovering below its yield from last fall. sue, tyler, back to you. >> thanks, ricky, i'll take it. appreciate it. two years ago today apple made a very big move by issuing a dividend. but what are the best tech dividend plays right now in this market? seema modi knows. she's going to tell us. >> hey, sue. companies are dealing with mature businesses and are sitting on a record amount of cash. those names coming up. and as you know, we are counting down to the fed's latest decision on interest rates. the key statement on the economy. that is followed by ms. yellen's first news conference as the fed chair. we have very special fed coverage for you on cnbc. you cannot afford to miss it. 56 minutes and 32 seconds to go. we're back in two with the dow up ten points. up ten points.

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it's been two years since apple announced a dividend. the stock right now is up 3/4 of a percent. the tech titan is in fact now the second biggest dividend

payer in the s&p 500. but what are some of the other big tech dividend plays right now? seema mody is breaking it all down for us. >> apple isn't alone in apaying big dividends for investors. some of tech's biggest names now pay some of the biggest dividends for the s&p 500. let's take a look at some of the three reasons why tech companies continue to pay big dividends. first up, tech is sitting on a record amount of cash. second, more activist investors are pushing tech companies to strengthen their capital allocation strategy. third, many large tech names are dealing with slowing growth and maturing products. analysts expect four big tech companies into crease their dividend this year. first up apple. microsoft, which typically increases its dividend in september. intel has increased its dividend every year since 2004. and ibm, which despite showing growth has upped its dividend payouts every year since 2003. here's what's interesting. some of tech's biggest names still don't pay a dividend.

google sitting on more than $50 billion in cash. it does not pay a dividend. and the fifth largest tech company in the s&p in terms of market cap seems to be more focused on spending its money on acquisitions versus defenividen. sue, back to you. >> with janet yellen at the head of the fed our next guest says it might be time to put more risk on the table. american century investments is a $14 billion management across several five and four-star funds. so he's a very busy guy. welcome to "power lunch," rich. it's great to have you here. >> same here. >> when you talk about putting a little risk back on the table, in what form and how much? >> well, we are, continue and have been overweight in equities, primarily domestic equities for some time now. we've recently added some overweights to european equities

as well. we believe in this recovery not only domestically and globally. we're taking on risk wherever we can find it in a prudent way. >> do you think the prudent thing for most individual investors to do is look past the headlines in there's been a lot to worry about. the ukraine, crimea. there's been china's economy. and now a new fed chair and in a few minutes we'll hear what they're going to do on interest rates. if i'm an individual investor do i just kind of ignore that? >> i wouldn't say ignore it but give it some appropriate weight. there are some negatives on the horizon, clouds on the horizon. there always are. but the fact is the economic and financial fundamentals are sound. you have earnings growth to come, a stronger consumer. these are the items that are going to drive the stock market and the economy higher and continue to accelerate growth here and overseas. the worries about china are

real. but that's been fairly discounted at this point. >> you know, rich, talk to me about the success you've had with your reit investments. they've really performed quite well for you. what kind of allocation do you still have to reits and do you expect they will continue to outperform? >> we expect them to be at least market performers going forward. we've had a great run in our global asset allocation portfolio with an overweight to global reits run by steve brown and crew at american century. it's been a great fund. the reit sector, however, is not as attractive to us right now as some of the mid cycle sectors such as technology, industrials, and possibly materials down the road. as this recovery evolves we're going to be morphing or migrating toward the growth areas. we have a healthy weight but not as much as we're loading up in tech stocks right now. >> in u.s. equities, rick, big companies or smaller companies now and give me an example of one of your largest holdings and

why you like it. >> well, we have been overweight small cap stocks relative to large cap stocks but we recently pulled back on that. the sweet spot, if you will, for us right now is the mid-cap stocks. and you'll forgive me for not pulling out a specific equity name but let's go with the heritage fund, which is american century's star fund in the mid-cap growth area. that's our biggest weight. >> thank you so much. pleasure to have you with us. continued success to you and your investors. >> thank you. >> ty, down to you. >> all right, sue, it is an historic day here, not just any fed day. we'll have the interest rate decision at the top of the hour. and then a half hour after that a whole lot of yellen. janet yellen. her first news conference as fed chair. that is at 2:30 eastern time. there you see 48 minutes away. it will be a very interesting event. meantime, 6:00 tonight on "mad money," jim cramer is live with

what i think is the most fascinating city for business in the entire united states. and he has some really great guests coming from seattle tonight. howard schultz, blake nordstrom, spencer rascoff and clay siegal. that city has so many great companies. that just touches the surface of them. amazon is there, and so is costco. a very interesting "mad money" tonight at 6:00. we'll be right back. back. [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ from td ameritrade. maestro of project management. baron of the build-out. you need a permit... to be this awesome.

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52% of you said yes, she's going to do a good job. 34% say i'm nervous for her, she has big shoes to fill. 14% say no, bernanke should have stayed longer. interesting results to say the least and a reminder that her news conference is coming up shortly and a lot of us are going to follow it on strnz trnz and mandy, over to you. >> you're absolutely right, sue. a very special show today. we're going to be starting about five minutes early, so about ten minutes from now. we are going to carry it live on our show. any change in the forward guidance language? 6 1/2% unemployment threshold. these are the types of things that could move the market. of course we're going to give you the live coverage that only cnbc can bring to you. and it is just minutes away. make sure you join us. in the meantime, back to you guys. on "power lunch." >> okay, mandy, we'll see you in just a few minutes. to the headlines now. orbitz worldwide downgraded to sell from neutral over at goldman sachs. the firm says the travel website

is showing slower growth while selling at a premium to its peer group. the stock is down almost 9%. transocean upgraded to neutral from sell over at citi. the firm also increasing its price target from $41 to 41. juno upgraded at wells fargo. that firm saying they will benefit from a stronger spending environment. ty, down to you. >> all right. thank you very much, sue. we are just minutes away from the fed's decision on interest rates. in about half hour, 40 minutes or thereabouts from janet yellen's press conference. we'll talk about that and more when "power lunch" continues in two minutes' time. two minutes' . thinking up game-changing ideas, like this: dozens of tax free zones across new york state. move here. expand here. or start a new business here...

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and welcome back to washington. i'm outside the federal reserve, where in just a few minutes' time we will get the decision on interest rates. steve liesman is inside on lockdown. and he is preparing of course for janet yellen's first news conference as the fed chair. that begins at 2:30 eastern time. there you see the markets. make a note of that. the dow down just kind of

modestly there as we head into this decision on interest rates. we'll see how it reacts then. sue herera's going to join me now and so is bob pisani and dominic chu. bob, what do traders expect to hear? what would they like to hear today from the fed? >> look, number one, on the forward guidance i know everybody just wants to talk about it. i think the main concern is they might change that forward guidance with some of the hodgepodge mix of other indices that will confuse traders and that might cause rates to go up. that's one problem. one thing i do want to hear a little more about is what's going to be in paragraph 1 and that's all the news on the economy. we've seen better economic data just this week. are they going to acknowledge that? and that could help us out a lot. tyler? >> dom, what are you going to be looking for and listening for most closely? because there's a lot of people down here on the floor that say once this news conference is over and they get a true read of ms. yellen and her style that they're going to move back to russia, uk wrain, and china, and that's all headline risk. >> that's going to be the real key here. it's to eliminate the fed as one

variable. we've heard so much about how janet yellen has followed very closely in the footsteps of ben bernanke in terms of policy. what we want to do is check out the forward guidance, nobody's expecting some gargantuan moves one way or the other. what it does do is solidify this fed is on its current track, it's trying to tell us what it believes in the future. this is as much aof a holding pattern as we've seen in a long time for stocks. flat across the board. and to be honest, five sectors are up, five sectors are down in the s&p 500, and there's no real direction. you can't say it's defensive that are doing better or cyclicals that are doing better. this is going to be very much all bets are off for right now. when this fed clarification does happen, that's when you start to see maybe the fundamentals or more microeconomic aspects of company fundamentals and geopolitical risks start to come more into the fray here. >> you know, sue, not to date us, but we've been following these fed decisions for a long time. and this is very interesting

because there's only been two fed chiefs in the past 27 years and here is the third one, janet yellen today. you cover the fixed income markets a lot. if you were in the bond pits, what would you be looking for? >> you know, i would just be looking for a little bit more in terms of her style because we basically have doves, we have hawks, and we have centrists on the fed. so she has her work cut out for her but i know she can do it. i think she's go to be very interesting to watch. >> that will do it from washington, folks. that'll do it for this special edition of "power lunch" from washington, sue. i'll see you tomorrow. >> see you tomorrow. also, "street signs" picks up in a minute. minute.

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call or click to open your fidelity account today. welcome to this special edition of "street signs." and it is a big day. we are just minutes away from the fed's latest policy statement. we are also just minutes away from janet yellen's first news conference as fed chair. it is our first look at a new fed chairman since 2006. and just our third head of the fed, mandy, since 18987. >> really narrow trading range today. in fact among the narrowest we

have seen. the dow is trading in less than a 50-point range. still all three averages are higher for the month of march. haven't had a lower march since 2008. the nasdaq since 2005. conviction has not been higher. volume has been among the lowest of the year. gold has fallen for the third consecutive day. possibly with the crimean crisis. let's take a look at what's happening over in the bond pits at the benchmark ten-year treasury yield. it is currently sitting there at 2.71%. brian? >> volume about as shallow as a kiddie pool. >> indeed it is. >> as we await the fed decision let's bring in jpmorgan funds' david kelly and brandywine global's jack mcintyre. i guess you can't expect a surprise. that would be an oxymoron. so what do you expect from fed

head janet yellen? >> i think it could be a very interesting meeting. first of all it will be interesting if they remove the 6 1/2% threshold which right now is very awkwardly in the statement and almost contradictory the way they talk about it. it might change the language. but i'm more interested in seeing what janet yellen herself says. she's got to create an impression here. certainly much more difficult for her with this audience of professional economic reporters than it was with the timid questioning of congress a few weeks ago. the question, is she going to come across as truly data dependent or is she going to be determined to be a dove? i think what we get from that press conference will tell us a lot about where we go from here. >> and i believe you believe they are going to drive home the point that they do need to be data dependent from here. >> and they do. because we've seeb data actually come in below expectations for most of 2014. so i think it's going to be weather induced but right, the fed is ultimately going to be data dependent because that's going to drive the balance between growth and inflation.

>> and are you expecting a very dovish janet yellen? that's what we think we're going to get. is there a chance she's going to go hello, i'm raising rates 600%, i'm out the door? do you think that's going to happen? >> i don't think so. i think she's going to be leaning toward being dovish. but i think almost any fed chair would be dovish right now because we just don't see inflation pressures building. and again, the economy is probably right now not firing on all cylinders. i think going forward we're going to see some improvement but at this point in time i don't see why the fed would have to be anything other than a little more dovish. or status quo. >> you don't see inflationary pressure building. we've been watching what's been happening with food prices and commodity prices and some people feel maybe inflation has now bottomed out and get ready for some inflation, jack. >> yeah. but see, i go back, i look at what's the long-term driver of inflation and to me that's more on the wage front. you're not going to go to your boss and demand an increased

salary or bonus because you're paying more for coffee. it's really what is the productivity that flows through into labor and labor's not in a position of strength in the developed world right now. that leads to disinplace, or just low inflation from an extended period of time. >> it seems, david, the longer something goz on in the markets we become sort of immune to it. how relevant is the federal reserve right now to mom and pop investors at home? >> i don't think mom and pop realize how relevant they are but they are relevant. i disagree a little with jack. there is some wage pressure. if you look at the average hourly workers, non-supervisory workers has been going up steadily 2 1/2% year after year. straz the strongest since 2010. my problem with the labor market is i think we are running out of easily employable people. there's a fair amount of slack for people who are long-term unemployment and people who perhaps don't have the skills the labor market's looking for. but when you're looking for a smaller pool of people, you're

actually trying to hired a skilled person i think those wages are beginning to go up and that is the root of internally generated inflation. i think the fed will have to pay attention to that. and remember, we've got super, super easy policy right now. the issue isn't moving to a tight policy but -- >> david and jack, sorry to interrupt but it is that time. let's get now to washington, d.c. and our favorite guy steve liesman. steve. >> the federal reserve tapering by $10 billion, bringing the amount of mortgage-backed securities it will purchase and total securities to 55 billion. 25 billion in mortgage-backed securities. 30 billion of treasuries. dropping the 6 1/2% unemployment target as a threshold for when the federal reserve might raise rates. the new language is that in determining how long to maintain low rates the committee will assess progress, both realized and expected toward its objective of maximum employment and 2% inflation. it's going to take into account a wide range of information including, and here's the new test, measures of