hello and welcome to "worldwide exchange." in four months, u.s. equities on track to log one of the best weeks of the year. an executive shake-up, rbs appoints a new cfo and reports the tesco finance chief could be on the way out. british pharma firm metta

confirms a possible deal with mylan. a merger could create a $23 billion company. gloo and throughout the day, we're at the workshop on the shores of lake como and there's criticism over the lack of action from d.c. >> unimpressed about the -- with which the ecb is acting. welcome to the show today. plenty to come from the chinese computing firm lenovo, the brazilant development bank, good

old richard koe will be joining us about an hour from now. towards the end of the show, luigi zingales from the university of chicago. jules is going to be there. right now, though, we are just over an hour into the trading day in europe. it's all about the countdown to the employment report, as we know. the forecast is going to be 200,000. the numbers could be higher, 230, 240, something like that. ahead of it, european stocks are weighted to the upside. around about 6/3, thereabouts. advancers currently outpacing decliners. u.s. stocks down a little bit. the first fall in five sessions yesterday. not far away from the intraday high. the ftse was down some 10 points. today it's up 26. the xetra dax, the cac 40, just up 0.2%. as is the ftse mib, as well. a number of individual stocks

we're looking at here. m&a very much in focus again. meta says it has held preliminary talks with mylan over a possible deal. the stock follows a report that the two have held talks to merge. meda shares are currently suspended. tesco stocks just down 0.6%. the finance director may be leaving on account of poor financial performance. and remy cointreau up 5.5%. this is on speculation of a possible trade, as well. now, on the bond markets, ahead of the jobs report today out of the united states, treasury yields have inched a little bit

higher. 2.80% is where we stand, getting up to about the highs for the week, the 30-year, 3.265% on wednesday. as far as currencies are concerned, euro/dollar, we hit 1.3698 on thursday after more dovish comments. just above it at the moment, just below 1.23636. dollar/yen, we hit 104.12 on thursday and the aussie/dollar with that four-month high during the week. below that, .9238. and sterling is just below 1.66. let's recap where asian markets finished the week, as well. the nikkei composite fairley flat. so they escaped with that. of course, when the yen has been weak, it's done fairley well. the hang seng is down 0.25% and the s&p asx in australia up 0.25%, as well.

now, the prime minister, meanwhile, has wasted no time in implementing the first step of his ambitious reform agenda. legislation was passed through the lower house yesterday to cut down the local government. renzi says the bill will reduce the by 3,000 saving around 300 million euros. what do the they think of the italian prime minister on the shores of lake como? >> jules, it's a lovely spot to be. look, what do they think of mr. renzi so far? >> it's interesting. i've heard a lot of the words hope used this morning. actually, i quote the professor arriving and she says optimism right now can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. there is a lot of hope here that he can push through and implementing some of the reforms he's implementing at this stage.

election reform, institutional reform is absolutely vital for him to implement some of the reforms that he's talking about. those kind of institutional changes in the senate in particular, they could take a year or more. and one of the questions that i asked this morning was how long is renzi going to be given in order to enact some of these reforms? i was speaking to lorenzo at the ecb. this is what he had to say. >> if he will or if he doesn't the -- the european nation, which i think is the main target right now, then they have, you know, a few years, maybe a couple of years to do that. in any case, any reform has to be done at the beginning. the parliament is not his own parliament. so, you know, there is a risk that some of these lie in the party. >> so let's add another voice to the debate right now in italy. i'm joined by frank colanc had

i, the ceo and president of lameer. what's your sense of being back here? do you think this is a turn around story now for a clear game changer in the new prime minister? >> good morning, first of all. >> good morning. >> i think if i look, for sure, they are moving in the right direction. we need to look at execution and speed what it's going to be. that i think is -- we have some structural issue and we need to see how we are going to impress this structure issue. we need to speed up structural changes that are for sure not going to be easy but we need to do it. >> you're asking the question, i think, that everybody is asking right now about execution. why will matteo renzi be any more capable of achieving what other ministers have failed to do in this country?

>> well, the real difference i see is probably i see mr. renzi much more pragmatic. he has the right plan. he looks like to make some changes and to greet very, very quickly. i think he was good, for sure, we received some changes. we received some improvement. as i said, we need to -- because in my opinion, don't have too much time. >> how much time are we talking about? >> i think we need to see within the next 6 to 12 months, important structural change. >> and then what? if we don't see structural change in italy, do we start to see market pressure back on italy? there's a difference between that and what we're seeing now as far as renzi is concerned and mr. berlusconi. the markets were pressuring action there and they still failed. renzi doesn't have that problem

here. >> i think if we don't see some serious improvement within the 6 to 12 months for sure, market will come back and we saw some pressure. >> 6 to 12 months. but i want to talk about your business in particular, too. two big acquisitions. motorola, ibm, it's been a tough growth strategy to sell to investors, hasn't it? >> first of all, we didn't go through the full process in terms of -- so it's still an invention of acquisition. i think it's too important acquisition in the sense that the market is changing and we see pc market developing into much more mobile-connected device. and this is motorola acquisition, smartphone mainly embracing markets. on the other flight, when you think about mobility, client,

pc, the other part that was missing, structure partner, this is acquisition, the ibm server acquisition. lenovo has been through organic growth or merger and acquisition. we continue to be very good position in terms of organic growth. on the other side, if you want to speed up the growth, sometimes you need some acquisition. >> you quite rightly point out you don't yet have u.s. approval right now. the problem is u.s. investors, global investors might quite like that if you don't get approval. how are you going to sell this? how are you going to continue to sell this? is it going to come down too the proof is in the pudding? i think first of all we are very, very confidence that we can get the approval. we are following procedure in order to -- we are used to do it because we have been doing that starting from the ibm pc acquisition in 2005. and then to some other things b that we need to do in the last

couple of years. so we are very, very confident to follow the process. >> also a chinese corporate and there's been a fixation on the first chinese corporate not being able to make their debt repayment, their debt default in a sense. do you see this as a possible thing? perhaps it might change investors perception perhaps at the risk of china if we would start to see something that arguably happens in west markets all the time. it's a sign perhaps of a healthy and more discerning market. >> again, if i look at our history, we both -- or ibm pc in 2005. we develop the ibm pc from -- more than china. but in both parts of the world to still begin number one worldwide and being 3$30, $34 billion in a company making money.

if i look at china, china gdp is slowing down, 7.35% growth as compared to europe. that is not comparable. but gdp is slowing down. i think it's mainly coming from the overall worldwide crisis because in terms of export to the others slowing down, i think china is taking all the action in terms of speeding up technical consumption because they need to speed up internal consumption. i'm quite confident that they will come back on this point. and i think we will continue to see at least while i look at i.t. and our business, we will continue to see consolidation. it is difficult competing in this market.

>> thank you so much. great to chat with you this morning. coming up in a few moments time, i'm going to be talking all things brazil. we've got the president of the brazilian development bank. he'll be speaking to me in a few minutes time. ross, still stick around for that. >> oh, we will, don't worry. mow zill la has a step down after a storm of controversy after his opposition to gay marriage. he donated to the anti-gay marriage opposition in 2008. the news gained traction once he took over as chairman last week. the chairman of mow zill la steps down over the backlash. investors will be close willing watching today's u.s. jobs report.

and the unemployment rate expected to tick down to 6.6%. inning us for the first part of the show today, ian harnett at absolute strategy research inc. there's a suspicion here, a whisper in the markets. then people looking at 2.32 -- the. >> i think it's dangerous to get too hung up on these specific numbers. there is clearly the possibility that the bounceback from the -- that the u.s. had will provide some boost in the construction area. i think the key thing for us is the direction is broadly bottom. unemployment is being driven down. that's what possible is all about. everybody talks up the numbers.

i think there's a difference in getting separated. >> and i think those are the -- the u.s. economy was on track and a lot of the weak number that's we've seen from the ism, in of the pmi numbers weather related. i think that's going to be borne out. that means that equities go up when people are focusing on unemployment. how much does it matter on that inflation? >> we actually find short-term

unemployment rates are relative to things like bonds. we're happy to see these short-term unemployment numbers coming down and tracking those. now those adjust to 1.6 or 1.7 in the lows of the last few cycles. so we're actually watching that. >> how close are you watching wages? >> yeah, because what you have got to see, you've got to see those nominal wages go up. >> you could also argue one of the big reasons for the increase in corporate profits is companies at the extensive labor. that's the squeezing labor share of national income.

that's the thing that's going to change in the next decade. but -- >> labor is going to get their share. >> labor is going to get their share of national income coming back. >> there will be higher pricing power for the corporate texter. so the big mistake to think is that rising wages automatically push down margins, automatically push down profits. what happens is you get pricing power, you get the consumption, and it's only when the policymakers say right, it has gone too much. we're way away from that. we'll come back to you. what happens when yields keep rising? more to come from ian. and what do you think the jobs number is going to be today? as we said, the consensus is for a rise for 200,000 jobs. send us your guesses for the

nonfarm payrolls. e-mail us, worldwide@cnbc.com, tweet us @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate. still to come, rbs has chosen its new cfo. find out who made the cut after this. [ grunting ]

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we have some comments out from andy from the bank of england. he said moderating the risk could be the next frontier of macro prudential policy. what do you think of that, ian? you might come under closer regulation. >> we only do the research. we don't do the asset management, but we do work with asset managers, clearly. i think there's a lot of discussion. there's been paper in the u.s. that has had a similar theme. now it's an exceptional economist, andy howell, an exceptional economist in the uk. we're starting to see the mechanism through which these markets are supported, going through the asset management

business. so it's absolutely right that the central bank should be focusing on their systemic risk. they are overinvested in bonds and unemployment. that's the one thing that loses. and even their equity portfolios look like bonds. >> corporate bonds or -- >> as i say, the risk is that their equity portfolios look like bonds. if we were to get a bond blow up for whatever reason, then that would be major. >> and that's how financial repression works. they're trying to make sure that people remain invested, perhaps for too long in those bond markets.

>> there's a limit to the fed ford guidance. the central bank must avoid being locked into calendar based commitments. sedentary policy is reflective enough to respond to changing conditions. fisher said the fed's balance should be would be quite large once his upon buying program wins and it would be incredibly fast moving. where are we with appreciatories? the ten-year 2.8 and the 30-year 3.63. actually, going up across the board, ian. how much higher are yields going to go? >> we think the u.s. authorities are just trying to -- >> the ten-year. >> trying to push those yields up to normalize them.

>> and remember the yields dropped in july 2012. they doubled over the next 12 months, 14 months. the equity market went up 20%. the economy over 2%. history, in the last 100 years, 1902 to 11920, 1946 to 1981, secretaries did outstandingly well in that period the. in the third episode, they gained 5% annually and in the second episode they gained 10%. the people that lose in a rising bond yield environment, they're bondholders, not equity holders. >> yeah. they also announced in this ma lip yumm it was the bond bonanza. so how long can equities outperform bonds?

it's only laterally that you see inflation getting out of control and it's that inflation, once it gets above 5%, once it gets above 8%, historically, that's been the point where multiples get hit. >> and it's the point that you're making, it's overinvested in bond markets. it's a big pension fund. so do they have a choice? >> they are going to have to move away. and if you look at when a gpis, for example, in japan massively overinvested in bonds are being told by the government there they have overinvested in bonds,

the shift is that rerisking of assets, we believe, is a process that is starting in japan, we'll see it in the u.s. >> that becomes a fundamental long-term support. >> absolutely. people are underinvested in the productive capacity of the global -- and then it's incumbent on companies -- >> they've got to. and investors, those asset managers have got to stop saying we want you to run yourself the cash, we want those buy backs. they're going to go out there and be told by their the end investors that they have to invest in companies and investing in people and investing in capital. that's going to be the way you see that. >> thanks very much for joining us, ian. a little bit more from you from absolute strategy. meanwhile, rbs aappointed a new finance chief. we're starting with new position

at cfo on may 19th. they have been a member of credit suisse for a number of years. he's replacing nathan bostock who quit last year to join santander. tepco's finance director may lead. it's increasingly been under pressure since last autumn. the gross half year profits on were down by 23%. analysts have cut their forecasts and full year results by 7%. we'll take a short break. still to come, growth and welfare organization. which party platform will win out in the indian election? ind?

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the headlines from around the globe, the u.s. jobs numbers are expected to be the best in months. executives shake up. rbs appoints a new cfo. reports say tesco's finance chief could be on the way out. meda confirms it is in talks with mylan over a possible deal

that suggests a merger could be on the way for the company. and throughout the day, we're at the workshop on the shores of lake como over lack of action in the ecb. >> naturally, i'm unimpressed about the slowness with which they're acting. >> an hour and a half into the trading day in europe, equities here have some mild gains this morning. up 0.3% for the ftse 1100. 0.2% for the xetra dax, less for the cac 40 and the ftse mib is flat. on the bond markets, yields are trying to edge up a little bit in germany and the uk. there's a lot of caution ahead of the employment report.

the unemployment rate is down to 6.6%. we've got dollar slesh yen, 104.12 on thursday the, which is the highest. euro/dollar, 1.37. we got to 11 .3698 on thursday on the back of fairley dovish comments from mario draghi. but there's still the possibility of more action effectively is what they've been saying, as well. let's just pick up on that, as well. what's your own assessment of the ecb as it relates to equity investment in europe? >> i think what we're saying is that the ecb have got a window. if they're going to act, they need to act in the next two months. all of our leading indicators do show inflation dropping out in this type of phase. look at what the crb index is doing. it's started to reaccelerate. the bottom line is that europe is going to be an attracter of capital, still, because there is

healthy growth. worry seeing the balance between growth and inflation is very healthy for equity investors. multiples continue to rise in that environment. the question is whether now europe is an overowned trade relative to places like emerging markets relative to japan. >> we would prefer the equities, much more to the upside. >> julia, meanwhile, has been speaking to some of those from the workshop. take a listen to what they have to say about draghi and the ecb. >> very few mistakes. i think that europe -- enough leadership and not on -- >> i think that the ecb needs to

act in the federal institutions and they have tools in their hands. they should use them. they should use them soon. as we know, inflation is weakening in the euro area. it is the -- you have a projection they should publish in march. it is a new projection. the new projection is a bit lower. i think it's your indication that they need to act. everybody would be convinced. the markets will be prepared. we will not be surprised. >> there's the thoughts on the ecb. meanwhile, india is heading to the polls starting on monday. from the goldman sachs ceo jim o'neill said he expects india's growth to come in between 8% and 9% in 2015. and that the country could positively surprise under the

right leadership. >> india has got this incredible potential that comes from its demographics. the elections are a huge thing, indonesia, likes of brazil, but i think india could positively surprise if we have better leadership. >> the head of em asia and economic research at jpmorgan, former principal advice for india's ministry of finance, thanks very much indeed for joining us. the market seems to be betting here that bjp will win and there will be some radical structure and change. have we got ahead of ourselves? >> in the last few days look like that. i think, you know, if you look at the economic reality, that doesn't really change, you know, depending upon who wins the elections. and the economic reality is that india's -- the same growth range. for it to move to 8%, 9%, you

really need to get infrastructure, investment and corporate investment to do a very, very sharp turn around. now, the two main bottlenecks, one is implementation bottlenecks, which is very much of the hope of the market is that strong leader will change those implementation bottlenecks and the other is the financing constrain that is emerging very quickly on the infrastructure front. but if you do look at the implementation bottlenecks, as you look at the number of projects that have been, you know, delayed or have been held up, almost 80% to 85% of those projects have been held up because of problems that lie in the hands of state governments and not of the central government levels. so changing leadership at the central government level doesn't really do very much to ease those constraints. and the financing constraint, which is a very high leverage of infrastructure companies, that requires, you know, significant economic and politically very

sensitive, you know, negotiations to come to a solution. so the answer is that indz ia c go back to 8%, 9%, but the -- could be very, very messy. >> what influence would the central government have over state governments? you know, right now, if you look at where the implementation bottlenecks are and which are the states which are the worst, you know, people who have been holding up projects and people have done really well, it's both the opposition and the government. so if you look at congress, governments, some of them perform extremely well. if you look at the governments, some of them perform extremely well, some of the local governments perform really well. so the influence that central government has and the state government, where we can just point to and say one, two and three, the state governments will all, you know, agree to all

these conditions, they are very, very intricate, very specific state related. which they are afraid that simply the changes in leadership of the center doesn't really address the concerns. >> so look, what happens now to the rupee and do you think monetary policy post the election? >> right. i think the rupee, as long as there is no real, you know, surprising fall coming out next week or if there's no untoward event, the crimean crisis doesn't get out of hand or something really extreme doesn't happen, i think in the spirit of radio silence between next week, my guess is that the rupee will likely hold steady. i think the bank of india, if there are in either side, there is a bank of india, there is a bank of india has accumulated

sufficient amount of -- over the last three or four months of ender vengzs to deliver that intervention on either side. i think that monetary policy we are probably on the way out of consensus. our view is that, you know, if there is really the market hopes, you know, come out. therefore, we do see a very sharp rise in investment in the second half of the year and growth moves out of that 4% or 5% range to the 8%, 9% range, it's at 8% right now. imagine what will happen to core inflation in india if it moves from the 4% to 5% growth range to the 8% or 9% growth range. even if the lift is not as sharp as delivery 8%, 9% growth rate, core inflation is likely to rise. with that, rbi with interest rates in the second half of the year. >> good to see you. have a good weekend. thanks for that.

now, staying with emerging markets theme, brazil's credit outlook is likely to remain in place through 2014 according to the senior officer at moody's talking to the report through thursday. it recently downgraded the bonds blaming rising debt and weakening growth. let's get more on brazil. julia is going to talk about it at the workshop. hi, julia. hi, ross. thanks very much. as you get to the point quickly on moody's, i don't think many analysts are necessarily concerned about 2014. it's what happens in 2015 when we get the knock-on impact of nine consecutive rate rises and perhaps retrenchment of the elections, too. but the best person to talk to you about this is my next guest, the president of the brazilian development bank. lucianio, thanks for joining us. i was just talking to you about some of the challenges the country will face after the elections.

how concerned are you about the growth outlook? >> the challenges exist. we have an inflation to deal with. but we have a very able central bank. we have also some adjustment in the fiscal policy. nothing that can not be done relatively -- i wouldn't say easy, but in a fair manner. so i don't -- i think there is an exaggeration about the brazilian macro challengers. one important macro challenge is to reduce the current account deaf the sdeficit. this will be happening given the impact of the weaker real in the process of adjustment. >> we're expecting growth around 1.7% for brazil. that's on a historic basis relatively weak. we talked about the impact of the rate rises that we've now

seen. isn't the private sector and the performance next year going to be crucial there, too b, and what kind of impact they can make? >> no doubt. the impact in the private sector is critical for leading a process of investment cycle. but also, we had a very strong expansion of family indebtedness in years between 2004 and 2010 and these led to overindebtedness in the digestion of the process is now, in the end, credit dlinelinquens are much lower. also stronger domestic market growth and that coupled with a strong investment performance will help brazil to resume the 4% growth, i'd say.

years ahead. >> that's why i was going to interrupt you. it's a key word investment here. the country needs to see structural reforms, it needs to boost investments. bearing that in mind, does that make the investment needed to host the world cup this year a total waste of cash? >> no. i think the investments for the cup, they produce a legacy for brazil. let me say that we have investment frontiers which are very solid. we have oil and gas investment perspective, very strong. we have electricity and energy, renewables. we have a very competitive business sector. we have a dynamic domestic market. and investment in manufacturing. there is underlying strength in investment opportunities in brazil and we should move

towards that. and we just made a fantastic reform of offering to the private sector a huge concessions of logistics in high rates, port and airports. and that amounts to roughly $300 billion in four years. so we were doing reforms. and i think there's some misunderstanding about what's happening in brazil. >> i want to very quickly ask you about the election, too. there's a sense that we're seeing perhaps a better performance in brazilian assets as we see president ruceff's poll meetings slipping and a concern in the markets about a credibility issue here. i don't want to press you on that, but i want to ask you, how do you turn that sentiment around? how does the president continue

to enact policy to turn that around? >> there is no political risk in brazil. your position is saying that they will do it better. but no one is talking about changing policies. >> if the president has help. >> the president database of course. we have an election year in which there will be radical fiscal adjustments. but the government is seriously committed to a strong fiscal policy that will enable monetary policy to become softer in the future. of course, we have an inflation challenge right now which is the pressure from food prices. we have a dry season in brazil and also we have some pressure derived from the exchange rate depreciation. that's -- >> you've basically outlined the fine line that you track in

terms of fiscal and monetary policy in brazil. great to speak to you. on that note, ross, back to you. >> thanks for that, jules. look forward to seeing you a little later with richard coup. more to come from there. today we've had a discussion about india. discussion about brazil. i want to know what you think about emerging market equities. also now we can't brush these with the same -- >> i can that's one of the views coming out. ito san accuratic risks is becoming more important. what we have seep in the last month is people have started to move back into these asset classes as a whole. our sense is that the global economy is industrializing.

nobody has better in their forecasts. there will be differentiation. at the current time, india is probably overowned. we probably switch back into china. brazil has performed very well despite all of those fears. they will also be beneficiaries of this pick up in global growth. >> ian, always good to see you. thanks for that. have a good weekend. joining us from absolute strategy research. now, president obama's briefing congressional leaders on thursday. he sat down and democratic and republican leaders to discuss his trip to europe which was dominated by the situation in crimea. this as mcdonald's suspended work at its restaurant in crime na. the fast food chain operates three outlets in the peninsula. t

and still to come on the show, it's the most valuable horse race in europe. where should you be putting your money at this year's grand nationals? we'll have the latest odds, coming up. coming up.

stli names mcquade to win the effort to win fed approval. he says the fed's rejection of capital plan last week is a call to action. the fed faulted citi for not making enough improvements in its risk management practices. citi's stock today flat. china's banking regulators to run the stress tests on the country's banks according to the report in the shanghai securities news. the report didn't write details on how the test will be conducted at all. and whether the stress tests will be for individual banks or the sector as a whole. frontera has been fined over $250,000 by new zealand for the

way it hammed a food safety scare last career. it found a bacteria that could cause botulism. it prompted a recall but no bacteria was ever found. and on the agenda in asia next week, afghanistan heads to the polls to elect their new president. on monday, india's general election kicks off. the entire thing goes on for around about a month, but it is the world's biggest democratic election. on monday, the bank of japan kicks off its two-day the policy meeting. this weekend, the clocks roll back in australia and new zealand. that should be the end of the switch to -- whichever part of the plan that you're on. now, it is the most valuable horse race in terms of the amount of money bet. we're talking about the grand nationals. we expect it to pull in more cash than ever before. they expect 250 million pounds to be wagered in total.

but where is the smart money supposed to go? joining us is keyon o'brien. >> good morning. >> the thing about the grand national is you've got, what, 40 odd horses? >> 40 odd horses and a very testing four odd miles. it really is one of the toughest tests in horse racing. >> and also the toughest in which to pick a winner. >> it's certainly been tough in recent years. two years ago, we had 33/1. last year's call 66/1. from the bookmaker's point of view, it can't get any more difficult. >> it is amazing odds. and they do have a chance. >> absolutely. you get all the experts talking about the rush and the form. there's a lot of class in the race now. you get a lot of good horses and anything is in there with a

chance. >> now, what's the ground in jumping? whether it's firm or soft and -- >> it's soft but, of course, they're expecting some rain. but i would say maybe soft in places. >> which means the horses go faster. so what does that mean? >> if it was good, they would be going a lot faster. good to soft is pretty good for most horses in the race, unless it gets very, very wet. we're looking for good to soft grounds. >> look, the radio has been doing analysis for national for years and he's decided that, you know, he has between eight and ten letters, your one name and you start with an m or whatever, this is what people do at the nationals. >> well, it's -- >> it's 2/1. >> those royal connection res philips partner mike continued

tin did he ll. jumpling has improved as a result. it's about 12/1. that could come tumbling down. >> do you want that one, get on it today. >> absolute hi. >> people do tend to see one or two histories in the market. we know mccoy's ride could be another. >> and even further out? >> there's a lot further out. i do agree that it's a real conspicuous race. and there's lots of other horses in there 40s, 50s, 60s, into the chance. so, really, you know, you take your choice, but the way we're looking at things -- >> our producers quite likes rows of the moon because she is called rows. do you think anything about this horse? >> it's as much as any. it's not one i didn't --

>> that's right. it's just down in the bottom at 50/1. >> what do we know? hardly that. >> exactly. >> shakalaka boom boom. >> it's a great name. >> what is interesting is my local bookmaker has just closed down. now, look, i even went in there one day a year when the nationals are on and it's absolutely grand. clearly empty during the year. there are a lot of high shops, as you know, have closed down over the course of the last year. >> it's a relatively impulsive action. a lot of people want to do it on cash. they're all about the betting shops making about 25,000 pounds a year. we just had a tax increase in the budget. we're awaiting some regulatory announcements. but i think you're absolutely right. there's about 800,000 shops in the uk.

that's called the better political controversy. but the point is, if we can't get any tax increases, you'll see large closing. we're going to close about 50 shops this year. of course, the tax on the horse racing industry and the employment and the shipping point is about five people. >> it's not like we need less shops. >> many, many areas, it's an issue. and betting shops are partly thwarted. >> thank you for joining us. just show you where u.s. futures are currently trading at the moment. and we are called a little bit higher, but much depends on the employment report. we'll get into that in the second hour of "worldwide exchange" coming right up. ge" c.

this is "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. the headlines, help score the u.s. job market in march, the pace of hiring expected to be the strongest in four months. u.s. equities on track to log one of the best weeks of this year. dallas fed president richard fisher says the central bank must avoid being locked into calendar-based commitments. meda confirms it is in talks with u.s.maker mylan over a possible deal. a merger could be worth $20

billion. and we're going to be at the workshop throughout the show on the shores of the lake como. some of the leading economists there pretty critical over the lack of action from the ecb. >> it is absolutely unimpressed about the slowness with which the ecb is acting. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. warm welcome to you. welcome to the start of your global trading day here on cnbc. u.s. futures took a dip down, the first fall in five sessions yesterday. the dow about 711 % for this. it did have a fresh all-time intraday high. right now, the dow ahead of the employment report, that's going to be the key today is called higher by around 30 points. but, of course, the open is post

that employment report. we've got forecast down 200,000 jobs to be created. but there is this thought that the number will be higher. the s&p at the moment is up some 4.5 points above fair value and the nasdaq 8 points above fair value. the ftse 11 00 is up 0.37%. the xetra dax is up 0.3%, cac 40 and ftse mib up 0.2%. 10-year treasury, 2.79% is where we fall. and as far as currency markets are concerned, dollar/yen, we saw hit 104.12 on thursday, the highest since january 3rd. 103.85. euro/dollar, 1.37. there was no action at the ecb, but it was dovish and talked

about all the calls going forward. now, as far as asian markets are concerned, they concluded the week flat for the nikkei. had to have proof they got benefit from the weakening yen over the course of the week. the hang seng down, of course, and in australia, the s&p/asx up 0.25%. the driver will be the u.s. jobs report as weather related effects, 200,000 job forecast to be added during the month of march. the unemployment rate expected to tick down to 6.6%. julia is at the workshop on the banks of lake como with more ahead of this. jules. >> thanks so much, ross. actually, this is one of the crucial questions that's being asked here at the workshop is whether or not we're going to see a pick up in growth between q1 is and q2.

and we can put those weather effects on the impact on the data aside. i did the catch up with jacob frankel and he talked about the importance of the u.s. expansion on global economic growth. listen in. >> the rest of the world is worried about it. when you increase the strength of their own economy rather than worry so much about the external effect. it's good news. >> he did say, though, as far as monetary policy is concerned, the crutches need to be taken away. interesting in light of the softening tone that we got from janet yellen after her six-month quote from rate rises beyond tapering. but listen in to what jim o'neill had to say about yellen and her behavior right now. >> yellen is probably more dovish in spirit spirit than her predecessor bernanke. but she's not the only person that matters. and i think there is some creeping concern i smell at the

fed that the they don't want to support yellen, there's a bubble being created. >> so that just highlights the binds that we know janet yellen and the fed are in as far as controlling monetary policy and rates are concerned. next we bring in my next guest, the chief economist at nomura research institute. great to have you on "worldwide exchange." you talk about the u.s. as being in a qe trap. which ultimately makes yellen, forces yellen to be more hawkish perhaps than she needs to be to control back end rates. why did she back off this week after having shot the market over the timing of rate hikes? >> well, i think the reaction was pretty strong from the market and maybe she has to continue her remarks a little bit. but i think we have to to get used to the fact that central banks are going to act very different from the central banks that not do the qe. when the economy recovers, central banks that did to the qe

will be most relaxed, very happy. and then with the quantity of the full employment. in the case of united states, there's enough reserves in the banking system to increase the u.s. money supply by 19 times. we're talking potentially 1900% inflation rate. so the central bank that did the qe will have to always appear ahead of the curve in terms of inflation to make sure people not worry about this 1900% inflation rate. and when the federal reserve started tapering, inflation rate was only 1.1%. to get ahead of the curve even further the, they start mentioning a rate hike could

take place next year. these are all the ways that central banks that did the qe have to assure the markets that they will never fall behind on inflation expectations. >> interesting to her her soften that tone again this week. how did she find things as far as the markets are concerned right now, we're in a bit of a sweet spot. i.e., either we get a strong u.s. recovery or we've got yellen in the back stop. >> well, i think we are going to have this tfluctuation. there's no theoretical papers on how to get out of qe. all the papers that were rin for the last 15 years, qe is a good thing to do, it's great for the recovery, they all tell us how to get in. but none of them tell us how to get out. >> the escape route. >> the escape route is not there. and when you think about it, even after all these u.s. treasuries mature at the hands

of the federal reserve, the reserves in the banking system won't disappear. that only rules treasury balances at the fed. it does not reduce the current account that banks hold with the federal reserve. so we could be stuck with this bubble for years. the results of banking system, $2.5 trillion. if the federal reserve increases interest rates to 4%, 4% of 2.5 trillion is $100 billion every year that the federal reserve has to incur to make sure this money doesn't go out to the banking system to create inflation. >> it's overwhelming. >> it's overwhelming. price matters. >> what about entering qe as far as europe is concerned? is mario draghi right to stand back and do nothing as far as the disinflationary terms are

being held here in europe right now? >> disinflation coming from lack of domestic demand is because the private sector is deleveraging. in europe, you add all the supply, multiply by negative numbers and nothing is happening. >> so you're saying draghi is right and governments need to do more? >> government needs to do more. that's why they talk about fiscal cliff. knock the ball off the fiscal cliff. don't get into fiscal austerity. government has to borrow to key the economy going. but no one in europe is talking about fiscal cliff. >> are you saying we're falling off it? >> i'm afraid so. so many economy res doing so poorly because the government is saving money and the private sector is saving money at the same time. >> thank you so much.

ross, on that note, falling off a fiscal cliff here in europe, and i'll hand it back to you. >> good stuff. always good to hear from richard. you'll be hearing from luigi zingales coming up, as well, from the university of chicago. also, earlier we were asking you where the numbers will be coming in. we had bad weather here in michigan. send in your guesses. e-mails us, worldwide@cnbc.com, @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate. meanwhile, the dallas fed president richard fisher says there are limits to the the federal reserve forward guidance. speaking in hong kong, he says the central bank must avoid being locked into calendar-based commitments, but instead, ensures enough to respond to changing conditions.

the national highway traffic safety administration says it continues to get information from gm on the ignition switch recall. gm has provided 200,000 pages of records and after two-thirds of nhtsa's questions about the event leading to the recall. gm has hired david ellar, a crisis management expert. general motors stock up 2.8%. now, after a programming glitch in its engine, mazda is recalling 88,000 cars. the vehicles, build from 2012 to 2015 are being impacted. almost had a of the recalled

cars are in europe. so far, the company has not disclosed costs associated with the recall. let's take a break as we go into that, a reminder of where futures are currently calling up. about higher at the open, but will be decided by the employment report before we get to trade. to trade.

recap of the headlines, u.s. jobs numbered the weighted with expectations. fed tapering today, richard fisher says the fed forward guidance must be limited. blaming operational regions, mcdonald's suspends its restaurants in crimea. citibank's ceo says he believes high frequently trading dispense an unfair advantage. speaking to reporters at the an mull meeting, the curb from u.s. regulators. he says what we are trying to do is run a market where everyone is on an even footing. td is canada's second bank but has a large presence in the united states. high frequency trading makes up more than half of its volume that accounts for a smaller portion of the market. now let's get back out to lake

como. >> high frequently trading and the concerns that investors have about this. talking about the financial trust index, right now in the financial system, this is just another blow, isn't it? >> we look at participants. if we look at the volumes in the equity markets to the financial crisis, there's a fraction of that.

you said that the u.s. was deteriorating. run by corrupt appreciate politicians. where are we on from that quote? we are talking about a country that's likely at the forefront of the global growth story this year. >> i think that we're not heading in the right direction. i think that the trading scandal is evidence of that and, yes, there is a recovery and thank god there's a recovery. but i don't think it's like it used to be. and then i still see a lot of social tension. so i don't think that long-term the prospective of the u.s. economy is so great. >> let me bring that question back to italy because that's where we are right now. the capitalist system.

based on that, what is your view of the current italian parliament? is this a game changer for the country? >> i think it's a hope for the game changer. i think that he has a lot of -- a lot of good ideas and the question is what he's able to deliver and what does he promise. the difference will be huge in my idea. >> how long will italians give him to try and implement those changes? he's made a lot of noise but it's the implementation that's always the problem here in italy. >> that is true. we want to see some real action after the european elections. >> how quickly? are we talking two months? are we talking six months? >> i think you want to see some stuff done within two months and we want to see the economists getting to a different gear within six or eight months. >> are you concerned about how they're going to finance some of these reforms? this is one of the critical questions that keeps being

raised about italy right now. >> i think that a lot of reforms can be done without spending more mope. it's more like changing the mentality, the process, the holes. all this stuff can be done without spending money. >> so when we have this conversation in a year's time, are we still going to have the same government? >> i think so. >> wow, that would be a turning point even now. ross, back to you. >> good stuff, jules. thanks for that. plenty more from the coverage online at cnbc.com. still to come on the show, tv host david letterman has decided to call it quits after more than 30 years on u.s. screens. more on that when we come back.

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all right. let's take a look at u.s. futures. we are called slightly higher at the moment. it's all probably ahead of the employment report before we kick off the trade today. the dow trading at an all-time intraday high on thursday. we had our first fall in the yen in five sessions.

the nas down down 0.9%. european equities, meanwhile, are higher. 0.4% for the ftse 100. xetra dax up 0.3%. the cac 40 up 0.25% and the ftse mib up 0.1%. this is after mario draghi posted and said the government council is united in its commitment to using unconventional instruments if inflation doesn't pick up. but the ecb chief called aside the imf to act immediately. >> the imf has been recent extremely generous of -- in its suggestions on what we should do or not do. and we're really thankful for that. the -- but in the vice presidents of the governing council are in a sense different. and frankly, i would like the imf to be as generous as they have been. also without a monetary policy

jurisdictions like, for example, issuing statements just the day before an fomc meeting today could take place. anyway, i think the value of the advice of the imf and certainly is an important contribution to our analogy. >> slightly tongue and cheek for mr. draghi there. now, julia has been speaking to some of the world's leading economists down at the workshop. this is what they had to say about draghi and the ecb. >> very few mistakes since he took office. i think europe owes a lot to his leadership. >> i think that the ecb needs to act as our -- institution, they have tools in their hands, they should use them. they should use them soon. as we know, inflation is weakening in the euro zoen area.

>> alliance is not -- >> i agree. >> you have a projection. you must wait for the new projection. the new projection is a bit more i think there is a clear indication that they need to act. the markets will be prepared, surprised. >> and in corporate news, the firm meda says it has held preliminary talks with drugmaker mylan over a possible deal. it would create ads 23 billion company if it happened. the financial times says mylan would pay a significant premium to meda's value. shares are currently suspended in stockholm. more details will be released later. also in the tech sector, brendan nyse has stepped down

from mow zill la over his opposition to gay marriage. the news took traction when he took over as ceo last week. grubhub has priced its offering at $26 a share. that's above the range it was raised this week. the food delivery service jumped over $2 billion. grubhub will trade today under the ticker g-r-u-b. and imf health has priced its ipo at around 20 bucks, just above the mid point in its expected range. the ims will trade on the nyse under its symbol, i-m-f. now, you can sit and have a chance to earn a piece of the friendly confines. reports say the owners of the

chicago cubs may sell shares in the team to the public. the rickets family, who made their fortune from ameritrade, bought the cubs back in 2009. shares would help fund the expansion of wrigley field. there's a bit of baseball history. and david letterman has decided to call it quits. the long-time host of cbs's late show surprised his audience thursday when he announced plans to retire next year. he's been an american fixture on tv since 1982 which made him the longest host since johnny carson. more on that and more from lake como after this. como after this. planned, as usual, by this guy. nature lover... people person. ♪

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this is "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. the headlines, beyond the set of spring for the u.s. job market in march. it's expected to be the strongest employment numbers since month. u.s. equities now on track to log one of the best weeks of the year. the dallas fed president richard fisher says there are limits to the fed's forward guidance. and the central bank must avoid being lost in the calendar based commitments. swedish pharma term meda

confirms it is in talks with mydan over a possible deal. and throughout the day, we've been on the shores of lake como. some of the leading economists there voicing criticism over the lack of action from the ecb. >> naturally, unimpressed about the slowness with which the ecb is acting. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> if you just joined her in north america, very good morning to you. it's going to be about the employment report today ahead of that futures indicating an upward start. we'll have more on that in just a second. yesterday, we saw first snap in a five-day losing streak, but only slim losses in the dow hitting the session during a fresh intraday high.

around 30 points on the dow, the s&p is around 5 points high at the moment. the nasdaq currently trading nearly 10 points above fair value. european equity markets have gone high during the session. still 0. 4% higher for the ftse 100. the xetra dax is currently up 0.3%. similar gains to the cac 40 in france and the ftse mib just up 0.1%. it's really going to be dictated by the u.s. employment report for march. let's just remind you what we're looking at here. and we're looking for a gain of 200,000 jobs out at 8:30. employers hunkers down during the brutal winter months. we think we've recovered from that. it would be the fastest pace of job growth in four months. the private sector is expected to capture most of the gains in march. unemployment is forecast down to

6.6%. joining us with his thoughts, as ever on jobs friday, patrick o'keefe, director of economic resrch. patrick, i'm always pleased when i see you because i know where we're at in the calendar of the month and everything else. it's reassuring. okay. give it to us, pat, your forecast. >> the highlight of my month, ross. the expectation on our part is that we will get a net gain of 210,000 private sector jobs in march. i think the headline number that's going to come out of this report is that in march for the first time since the rescission began, we have private employment in the united states at a record level. we will have more than 116 million private jobs. not farm total unemployment will still be blow its prior peak

because of losses in the public sector, but we're looking for a new record high for private employment in the united states. >> and we'll be through the disruptive weather. what about continuing constraints on the strength of this recovery? and how much will that private sector creation is sort of not full time, it's part-time work? >> well, despite being a record, it's taken us a long time to get here. and i think it puts it in your question is that the pace of growth is still relatively slow. we'll be picking up a little bit because the weather is behind us. but when we look at the distribution of these gains, the goods producing sector, for example, is still 3 million jobs shy of where it was prerecession. some of the former really strong growth components of the jobs market, health care is one that i focused on, has decelerated not just in the past couple of months, but in the case of health care throughout 2013 and the first couple months of this

year. it has slowed to the point where the three-month average is at a record low. so there are still, beneath the headlines, some worrying aspects of the overall recovery. >> now, just look. assuming the weather returns to the norms in april, there will be a return of people who are unable to complete any paid work during the winter months. presumably, we get this number today that we expect, we don't see a really big jump up in april? >> we may get a big jump in march simply because of catch up hiring. employers making up for hires that didn't occur in january and february. but i think overall, what we are likely to see over the course of this year is an average of about 200,000 jobs per month in the first half of the year. in the second half of the year on average we'll hit about 225, 230. that would mean at the end of the year we've added more than 2.5 million jobs, which is the best in a decade. >> okay. and that would be something.

patrick, stay there. we'll come back to you towards the end. get a cup of coffee, tea, juice, whatever it is you need at this time of the morning. earlier we asked you what you think the numbers will come in. josh tweeted in and said i'm a bull. but the bears are out of hibernation. what does that mean his forecasts were? jan tweeted in 115,000. send in your guesses for today. and a guess would be good actually with a number. thank you. the dallas fed president richard fisher came out and said meanwhile there are limits to the fed's forward guidance. he's been speaking in hong kong. he says the central bank must avoid being locked into calendar-based commitments. but policy is flexible enough to respond to changing conditions. it sounds reasonable.

the fed's balance sheet will be quite large once its bond buying program ends and if they have the right to fiscal policy, the u.s. economy would be incredibly fast moving. away from the employment report, there are some other things we're looking at. i know it's hard to believe. president obama briefed congressional leaders on the ukrainian crisis on thursday. the president sat down with democrats and republican leaders to discuss his trip to europe, which was dominated by the situation in crime na. this is as mcdonald's has suspended work at its restaurant on the peninsula blaming manufacturing reasons. key outlets in crimea, the closures follow the announcement by deutsche post that it was no longer accepting letters from crimea since the russian annexation. still to come on the show, getting the fed off your back. find out how citigroup plans to deal with fed stress, that's coming up. coming up. in my world, wall isn't a street...

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the headlines, u.s. job numbers await with expectations a strong figure will see fed tapering stay on track. meanwhile, dallas fed president richard fisher says the forward guidance must be limited. and blaming operational

reasons, mcdonald's suspends work at its restaurants in crimea. and we'll switch from crimea to ukraine. the ukrainian acting prime minister says they will stick to the unpopular austerity measures as the price of independence is -- under the current russian president, what he calls the crime of seizing crimea. but ukraine will never recognize the crimean takeover in return for goods russian relations. he says the biggest -- would be the resurrection of the soviet union. we'll keep our eyes on that. more news to come out of that. meanwhile, citigroup is looking to alleviate some of the stress over the fed rejecting its dividend and buyback plans last week. let's get more on this. bertha is with us from cnbc hq in the states. a bit of a disappointment, i'm sure, bertha, for the company.

how are they going to the deal with it? >> well, i think they are looking to be more focused. citigroup has named jean mcquade to run the profits for the next year as it seeks to win permission from the fed to raise its dividend and buy back more stock. the ceo of the main subsidiary. he'll now become vice chairman reporting to ceo michael corbeck and will oversee the so-called application to the fed. citi's finance and risk executives will be accountable to mcquade. corbett announced the news on theirs. he says the rejection of capital plans next week is a call to action for our firm. corbett was named ceo in 2012 and made it a priority to win the return to capital to shareholders. he had his plan rejected in

march of that year which may have led to his ouster. investors were shocked by the fed's latest rejection because the bank had been building up capital and had received approval last year to launch a buyback program. the fed says it objected this year because citi the hadn't done enough to shore up its risk management practices and couldn't determine how its revenue and profits would be hurt by a future global financial crisis. checking citi shares in europe this the morning, they are flat slightly to the down side at this hour. ross, back to you. >> bertha, good to see you, as always. now, the national highway traffic safety administration says it continues to get answers about the gm ignition switch recall. gm has provided 200,000 pages of records regarding questions about the events leading to the

recall. david ellar, who is a crisis management expert. mazda is recalling around 88,000 cars globally after a programming glitch in its engines which might cause the car to stall. the vehicles build between 2012 and 2014 have been impacted. so far, the company has not disclosed with this recall. back to one of our top stories, investors will be closely watching today's jobs report. 200,000 jobs are forecast to be added during the month of march. and they've been taking about this, of course, on the shores of lake como from where we are now joined by jules. julia. >> thanks so much, ross. yes, jim o'neill saying it was a

crucial jobs reading. will we now get a handle on whether we can put aside the weather effects of q1 and see a pick up in q2 and into the final second half of 2014. the other thing, of course, is how will fed policy, monetary policy continue to impact both the economy and the markets? listen in to what some of our guests have been telling us this morning. >> yellen is probably more dovish in spirit than our predecessor, bernanke. and i think there is some increase in concern i smell at the fed that we don't want to support yellen as above all being -- >> the world is worried about it, increase the strength of their own economy rather than so much worry about the external effects. it's good news.

>> we are going to have this fluctuation, both at the federal reserve level and at the market level because it is no theoretical -- on how to get out of here. all the papers that were written for the last 15 years, say qe is a good thing to do. it's great for the recovery. they all tell us how to get in, but none of them tell us how to get out. >> the other topic driving the conversation here at the ecb or lack of action from the ecb, yesterday, mixed voices as far as whether or not mario draghi should take action. richard just spoke to him, the chief economist at the nomura research institute. saying absolutely no, draghi shouldn't take further action. very much mixed voices here and hope as far as the future of italy is concerned. there are some of my key take aways. back on closing bell to talk to a well known goldman sachs

strategist. coming up later on in the program, it's now back to you. >> and those comments from richard which we heard this hour, jules, are interesting because bearing in mind the experience of japan and inflationary stress. him saying the ecb shouldn't take more action carries a bit of weight. oh, there you're back. >> i'm so glad you picked up on that. we were talking about this off camera, as well. he said to me the europe hasn't learned the lessons from japan. immediately my ears picked up and i said what do you mean? you're concerned about inflation? he said no, not at all. it's the fiscal cliff issue and these european countries are falling off the fiscal cliff. he absolutely focused and said we're kind of missing the point. they haven't learned the lesson from japan but it's not less the lesson you think it would be. >> what is he says he thinks the solution should be for countries? >> government. government need to take more action, whether it's structural

reforms, key measures to address the amount of debt right now, a number of things that ultimately government are doing enough and we can't ton rely on mario draghi and the ecb to take liquidity action. >> i think that would be fair. jules, good to see you. plenty more to come from you. enjoy. it is one of the most -- in the world, isn't it? >> it absolutely is beautiful. i know you were here last year, but it's heated behind me, as well. very excited about that prospect. >> it's still a bit nippy this time of year to get in the pool. >> exactly. >> but it floats on the lake. it is amazing. good luck with that. there you go. in thank you. >> there is a shot of the pool. thank you very much, floating in the lake. it is an extraordinary place. jules, thank you. more to come on cnbc.com. still to come, going public. chicago cubs fans could soon own

a piece of their favorite team. more details coming up. etails c.

now, listen up, chicago fans. you could soon have a chance to earn a piece of the chicago cubs. the owners may sell shares in the team to the public. the rickets family, who made their fortune from ameritrade, bought the cubs back in 2009. shares sales would help with the renovation of the field. meanwhile, david letterman has decided to call it quits. the long-time host of cbs's "late show" announced plans to

retire next year. he's been a fixture on american tv since 1982. making him the longest tenured late night host departing as mentor and idol johnny carson. his decision follows a similar move from jay leno as host of "the tonight show" on nbc. that's after 22 years. now, as far as the u.s. futures are concerned, they're forecast to tick higher. but before that, we've got to get through the employment report. yes, it is jobs day. 200,000 nonfarm payroll are forecast to be added during the month of march. the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 6.6%. we've been asking you where you think the number will come in. peter tweeted in to say plus 307,500. very bullish, very exact. patrick o'keefe is still with

us, jim, 300,000 plus. anybody down there in chicago think we might get a blowout number? >> good morning, ross. i think 225 would be a blowout number. you know, if we hit 300, i think that would be great and it would be nice to see the sense of 500 and 700. but i would think 225 would be a stretch here. and it seems the market is pricing in a pretty good beat. but, again, 225, i don't think we can go much better than that. >> yeah, look, if we get the forecast, is it going to be a little disappointment? because people maybe got their hopes up here for something a little bit better. >> well, you know, in the warped sense of wall street, a good number may be bad news for the stock market because it may mean that interest rates can actually go higher and the fed can actually start taking more away from the punch bowl. so if the number gets too good, you could see actually some selling. if you go back and look at january and february, we had two

lousy numbers, the market is actually rallied and made new highs off of those numbers. so in the world of finance, if the number is too good, there would be some reason the might could sell out and we could go higher here. so if we get a good number, it means we keep the pace of tapering rather than adding to it? >> i think at this point the fed is going to stay on its tapering as much to avoid a shock to the markets if anything else. essential essentially at this point i think the numbers as we saw from chair woman yellen, the numbers will be looked at across the spectrum of indicators, not simply unemployment or the

one-month job change. >> so what do you make about rich afterward fisher' comments that, look, we mustn't be locked into calendar-based commitments. which is essentially what the fed was saying, look, rates might go up. can we deal with more judicial decision making? i.e., just based on whatever the monthly facts tell us? >> it's for you, todd. that is for you. >> okay. yeah, i think the fed is continuing to stay in. as you can see just by fisher's comments that the fed is letting you know they are going to be around and they're still putting on the bernanke put, which is now continuing to be the yellen put. all the fed is doing is continuing to make announcements

letting us know they're going to be there supporting this market. why they're so concerned about the day-to-day working with the stock market, why they're so concerned about wall street when main street is falling apart, i don't understand that part of it. but the fed is standing here on the sidelines saying if you need us, we're going to be here. if you need something, we'll be right here to feed you some more free dough and free money here. that's really i think the bigger problem. >> patrick, brief word for you on the unemployment rate and tough participation rate, more particularly. >> i think the unemployment rate could pick up for various reasons. but the labor rate continues to increase. we don't have as much people withdrawinging from the labor market as we've seen over the past six, eight months. >> good to see you. have a good friday. whenever it starts for you both, a great weekend. we'll get the unemployment number. the countdown to that now begins on "squawk box." that's coming up right now. whatever happens, we hope you have a profitable day. profitab.

good morning and welcome to "squawk box." the day is finally here, jobs friday. the markets get ready for the most important data point of the month. in a flurry of ipos hitting the street today, including grubhub. which priced above the expected range. and david letterman decides to call it quits. what are the top ten reasons why? it's friday, april 4th, 2014, and "squawk box" begins right now.

it does take two to make a thing go right. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky can't shake that cough. we hope she feels better. hope to see her on monday. we have a lot to talk about. it is jobs friday. our top story today, we're going to get the march jobs report and the markets, they're waiting to see if the u.s. economy is starting to heat up after that brutal winter. let's take a look at the estimates here. the numbers to beat, the consensus is 200,000 for nonfarm payrolls. that's up from 175,000 in january. the economists are expecting unemployment rates to continue on a downward trend, falling to 6.6%. and hourly wages are expected to tick the up. all of that is rt staing at