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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 7, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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after all, dom? >> i like finding stuff on sale. that's six. i'm sorry. >> i'd re-examine what you mean by risk and safety. we're rotating from the core of europe where you see better growth and up side and it's safer. >> thank you all for being here. "fast money" coming up now. melissa straight over to you. >> we start off with the market ale alert. "fast money" starts right now. the selloff has spread far beyond the tech names. even pharma companies being get today. there are other sekt tos showing cause of concern. perhaps it's concerning because people might be ringing the
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register. >> they did basically what i did on thursday and friday which was take profits and microsoft saying now you're starting to see the spread. they're getting weaker. you're seeing tractor supply, you're getting names like home depot, all of those starting to sell off and starting to sell off meaningfully. i'm concerned that the tech sector, now it's spreading to every place else. >> is this one of the reasons why we didn't see any sort of safety bit for gold? gold has been one of the winners. >> you know, gold is no longer the safety play. gold -- when the whole russian thing happened gold should have rallied. it hasn't. i don't think it's any longer a safety trade. i think it's going to be a trade at some point. i still believe in gold. what scared me and concerned me -- i'm in the camp that rates are going lower. i've been in that camp for a
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while. but now some sensitive names like peru down almost 4% today. which had a lousy year. which maybe they're seeing i'm seeing. had a great run-in the beginning of the year. had a lousy start to this year. maybe they're seeing what i'm seeing now which gives me concern. the one good news is i think we're too early in the month for this selloff to continue. i'm in the camp that 1834 -- >> what does that have to do with the selloff. >> i'll tell you. we made a new all time high this month. 1834 was the low in march. if we were to close below that forgetting about outside days and weeks now technicians will start talking about outside months. i happen to think it means something. the fact it happened on april 7. leads me to believe these still a lot of time in the month.
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>> we had insurance matter. you take a look at individual ones like gold man sacks, one of the biggest dollar decliners. bank of america putting new lows for 2014. >> the lose ws of the day was morgan and golden sax. at one point morgan stanley was gone 1%. i think jpmorgan, wells mfargo started monday morning. there's a lot of good news in the stocks. a lot of the cost cutting has been done. earnings growth is going to be harder to come by. i don't think it's as easy a trade. i know you own them and like them. when we see their guidance going
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forward, when we don't see the trading that got their stocks here, that's got to be a disappointment. >> they have all had a pretty healthy decline. >> i think first off jpmorgan, i think on friday both wells fargo and jpmorgan i think the bar is getting lower as the stocks go lower. i'm going to hold going into that. i also think they have a very good feel about what's going on in corporate america and i think -- i'll be interested in the commentary of how they see this recovery developing. do they cithink it stalled or momentum there. i like getting into earnings. clearly on a day like today i'm going to lose money for sure. i'm looking for things to buy, not sell. if we open down tomorrow i'm going to look for things to buy. the only thing i bought today was google which is getting
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crushed with every tech name out there. the multiple does not reflect a no multiple. >> stocks as indicators for further declines. what would they be? >> it is the names i mentioned before. i would watch ak steel. letter x. and tractor supply. home depot and lows. all of those are names that have just ripped. the other names have been favorites. they start to roll over. and karen's google is a crowded trade as well. i would watch that to see if it breaks any significant levels. >> i agree with the google. we spent time talking about high valuation and high tech names. think about the price action in the win resorts these stocks went parabowl lick and had high valuations. i think you want to keep an eye of those sorts of names. also nikeky and starbuck's.
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they're hitting technical support levels. those stocks which were also prior levels can hold. >> another lousy day. you have got to give credit at the guys at itg point this out two months ago when the stock was trading 215 or so. look at the low today, the same low basically this time last year. it's about identifying risk reward. you had basically two times normal trading volume. it didn't close great but you have something to trade against. it comes in the form of 158. >> dan pointed this out. a very ugly pattern. seeming to form in apple. what did you see? >> it's not disastrous yet but a 515 level. it's starting to form -- whoa. that's good. when you look at the chart there. that double bottom from last summer the stock had a massive rally. where did it stop? about 515. for the last six or seven months
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the stock has consolidated above that level and you know what, when they had that disappointing fiscal back in january, it gapped below the up trend line in place from that double bottom. when you look at that consolidation on the neckline at 515, it has to hold there. i think it's going to be a battle ground for the stock for the next couple weeks. it's not going to be great. there's been chatter about a new iphone. i cannot imagine people are going to be upgrading in front of the 4.7 inch that people want. you have a couple quarters of probably disappointing iphone sales and that chart looks precarious. >> so you're putting this to work in a trade? >> everybody thinks that 500 is a level because these when the company went and bought $1400 billion of stock. i think that's where you get in
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and buy it. >> the nasdaq closed out since 2011. should you be fleeing these names? joining us is dan, cio. of capitol partners. what do you make of the sale off so far? >> it makes sense in is sense that you look at last year. the s&p is up 30% and nasdaq is up 8%. a lot of the companies had no business being up. google as an example. amazon. they both missed three out of four quarters they reported last year. both stocks were up over 50%. so does it make sense both stocks are selling off this year with no update on fundamentals? sure. the problem is you're gong to have to go through this correction phase to take out some of the excesses from last year. the earning season is coming up.
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companies that missed this year, their stocks are not going up 50%. i think you'll see a lot of splits in terms of companies like google and facebook which i think will have good quarters. those stocks will start to recover. i think you're going to have others that the same games they were able to play last year with oh, don't worry about profits, that will come at some point, just focus on the revenues. that is not going to watch this time around. >> so they had no business being up, amazon, do you think there's more pain for amazon, because coming this quarter they're not likely to post a profit? >> well, yeah. i think theat's the problem. you said it there, they're not likely to post a profit. it's okay to own a name like amaza amazon but when you have got revenue growth that's decelerating and the fact they raised their prime membership prices tells me they're having to focus on profits more because
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the revenue growth isn't where it should be. you contrast that against google which makes a lot of money or facebook, and i want to touch on google. a lot of people have heard mention of it's expensive. well the s&p is trading at 16 times. google is 20 times. but the s&p is 4% and google is growing at 20% if you look at their core business. to me, that's a pretty good bargain. that should continue. it really comes down to very specific companies and how you look at it. i don't know if you have that old technology versus new technology chart up. >> we do. >> if you take a look at that. you see last year it was up 105%. these are names like facebook and google, et cetera. the bottom line is the morgan stanley gold technology index. these are the old bell weathers
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and microsoft, et cetera. that was up 39%. if you look at this year the new technology names are down 6. is that anywhere near corrected? no, not yet. >> altera is one of the names you consider technology. name guidance for this april 24 wasn't great. make their peeking out at 64%. because the stock has been going nowhere for the last three years. >> well let me be clear. zilink is my favorite. the thing i like is cap x is going up. on the u.s. you have got at&t verizon, sprint and t-mobile beating each other over their
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head trying to attract you and i are their network. china mobile is going to spend 22% more this year. the only way to participate is through the pld vend doers. the kle so if you want to participate, you're going to go to around 1 07 in china this year. altera hastroubles. >> you mentioned amazon and the fact their earnings probably won't be the catalyst to move higher. for years and years people wanted to go to amazon, is this the type for shorts out there and amazon to finally make a profit? >> i don't want -- amazon is not a name i'm sure right now. amazon i brought up as an
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example. as well as google. of names that went straight up for no fundamental reason. i think if you look at shorts, i think this year you're going to make a fair amount of money on the short side. you're going to have to have good numbers and profits for your stocks to work. and amazon misses three out of four quarters this year like last, the stock is not going to be up 50%. maybe down 50%. >> thanks for your time. >> let's talk about amazon. he mentioned the prime. that's going to do something. when you look at estimates for amazon, their supposed to go up 100% for the next few years. i'm not making a bulk case for it. it's down 22% for the recent highs. he's right if they miss again, it's going to go down another 5% to 10%. if they can get their -- if they
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can start to grow earnings at the promise of the last five years the stock will likely go up. >> marissa meyer goes to hollywood. we have got someone who says yahoo can make a name for itself in the space. we'll explain why next. and why in investors flee u.s. stocks, we'll find out which country they go to next. make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today.
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yahoo wants in on your living room. the company is looking to get into the original space with four new comedies competing with netflix and amazon like "house of cards" and "alpha house." let's bring in andy. great to have you with us. yahoo seems to be kind of late to the game and spending a lot of money per episode when you're thinking of $700,000 to a few million dollars per episode. >> you're correct on both counts. while this is be no means breaking the bank for yahoo,
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these are significant expenditur expenditures. marissa is making big bets. >> do you think this is going to pay off? it's not just spending $700,000 or few million dollars an episode, but studios have entire departments and hire talent. >> yeah. that's what they said before netflix came around. they proved with "house of cards" that it is possible to generate hits without that kind of infrastructure you're talking about. yahoo is betting they can work the same magic. >> it would seem like allie baba is the talk now. does any of this move the needle. do you think it would be meaningful for yahoo? >> stock-wise when you compare it to that, no. let's talk about the best case scenario. what if miracle of all miracles yahoo managers to strike a hit
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like "big bang theory," then you're talking about something that does move the needle. >> i wouldn't bet on that. >> are they going to have this ready for the news front which is the equivalent of the networks upfront. was it last year at this event where they announced katie couric was their announcer? >> yes. the hopes are they'll have as many as four new shows getting advertisers excited about parting with their dollars. >> so you said if it has a hit the size of a modern family, how do you calibrate that on the internet? you're not talking about ratings. i can't imagine yahoo generated original content series having the same kind of ratings as a network hit. >> fair point. i think we're talking about a different metric here. things like traffic. you're talking about things like
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ad revenue. make no mistake that yahoo becomes the first place that a hit show would go in a hit scenario. they could conceivably sell it internationally overseas. they can sell it back to cable for a syndication run. add all that up, it's a pretty penny. >> great to speak with you. thank you. andy of variety diarietvariety. digital. if. if. if. there are a lot of ifs involved here. >> i think this is a problem for yahoo. maybe they could hit. and i could grow six inches and get an nba contract. nothing is going to happen. >> microsoft also going to the original content game. when i said it's behind, it's not just amazon and netflix, it's also microsoft. >> karen touched on this. it is about allie babba.
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that is concerning i thought it would hold 37. clearly that's not the case. now it has to hold the 32 level which is the point we bounced off in november. maybe the stocks are telling you it won't be as robust. >> imagine if allie babba were public today it would awful. >> the chinese internet names. look at the u.s. internet names and that's a cross section of it all. coming up next lands end, is a spinoff a valid way for sears? and later, why brazil continues with the emerging markets. bk will lay out the trade with you ahead. ♪
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sears getting hit hard sliding more than 6%. this as a retailer completed it's spinoff under the ticker le. >> for the sears portion, sears is the most complicated, certainly on the down side, complicated structure i have seen in a while. i don't waknow what to make of . i find a way to get in equity a debt. i don't know how much equity value there is. lands end spun it off today. it's expensive here. i don't think it's great. i think it's -- it also ran with others out there and ll bean and not cheap.
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i don't love that one either. that one i would rather be short than sears. >> now to brazil. 3% on the day after last week's big rally. >> up 18% since march 18. this has been a stand out. two reasons. one there's a relief rally over the fact china hasn't imploded yet. it's the end of a rate height cycle. do you go buy it tomorrow morning? absolutely not. you got to let this calm down. >> what happened to your eem trade, dan? >> i lost money in it. thank you. >> sorry. >> to an interesting point about eem, it almost feels like people were short at the bottom and presing the short. it was a big trade last year where people were long s&p and funding it short eem ewz and
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worked beautifully but came unwound in the last week. >> when you're effectively short, eem, was that close to the low? >> no. in april they rolled off. i had to find my risk. you don't press shorts at lowes like that. >> trade school. your graphics are a killer. >> next up proctor and gamble. all good. all time highs. big time. since i was a kid. for a number of different reasons. with that said, you don't buy proctor and gamble because they're raising their dividend. to me, it's gravy. coming close to 18 times forward earnings, they are not cheap here. and they will not be immune to
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the tape if the tape falls down. just to buy it because you're getting a 3% dividend is a fool's errand. that's almost a trade school. >> not as good as yours. >> we do have some news they want to alert you on 3 d company vosseljet. all the 3 d printing names across the board fell pretty sharply. >> yeah. they have been getting killed. remember a couple months ago there was some questions about different ways they accounted for things. they had that hanging over their head. now you get this. this is a tough space to be. i wouldn't touch it now. >> coming up next, why dennis is sounding the alarm and saying now is the time to step aside from u.s. equities. he joins us live.
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and later digging deeper and deeper into biotech. one of the top people gives up four names who say has plenty of growth. stay tuned. e statues, or big mahogany desks. when working with an investment firm, what's really important is whether the people behind the desks actually stand behind what they say. introducing the schwab accountability guarantee. if you're not happy with one of our participating investment advisory services, we'll refund your program fee from the previous quarter. it's no guarantee against loss and other fees and expenses may still apply. chuck vo: standing by your word, that's what matters the most. ♪ "first day of my life" by bright eyes ♪ you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen.
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welcome back to "fast money." we are live in new york city's time square. what has started as a selloff found it's way to the market. cut dennis's exposure to equities of nearly zero. he joins us onset to explain. >> i got scared. >> scared? >> i'm telling you what, i got scared friday morning. i came back from the gym and very comfortable. i owned coal, aluminum, i owned money center banks and very comfortable. everything seemed to be working. between 11:00 and 11:15 it was as if they flipped the switch. everything changed. stocks changed. bonds changed. currency changed. the whole world switched at that period of time. i turned to chip and said sell half of everything at the market. he said at the market. i said i want out.
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and i went to my own account other than retirement because i can't get short there and i said i'm selling s&p future. that was friday at 11:15. thank goodness i did that. i'm not sure what happened but something happened between 11:00 and 11:15. that everything turned on a time. i haven't seen anything like that in that short of period of time. >> on average how much is your equity exposure of your over all -- >> 100%. bull market, there are only three positions you can having, really long, pleasantly long and neutral. it's time to be neutral. you don't need to be short but don't need to be long. i think cash is the right place to be. >> carter pointed this out that it was a key reversal day friday. yes, it was. >> it was two things coinciding
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that one day. >> yes. >> in your experience, what are we looking for to get back in? >> a lot lower. offhad not only an outside reversal day. you could have had an outside reversal week. you had outside reversal month that's really important. suddenly the 200 day moving average on the s&p is a down level. you don't close below the previous month without meaning something. reversal months, very rare. >> put on your economist hat then. we had friday -- >> nice number. >> not as good as people might have thought. let me ask you in terms of the economy. has the market been too strong? >> yes. no question. the economy is doing fine. where i love in southern
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virginia, the boats are moving containers in and out. the hotels are busy. the airlines are busy. in new york, the same. the economy is doing fine. 1.5% to 2.5 percent gp. it was pleasant to be bullish. as i said, i'm telling you, something happened between 11:00 and 11:15 friday morning that they flipped the switch. it was enough for me to say i'm going to the side lines and getting cash. i'm going to get neutral. i feel comfortable having done that. i got lucky. let's not mince words. every once in a while you make a trade and doesn't work that way. but this time it continued to sell off friday and today. >> let's be clear. your out of equities but are you
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reaching for gold or bonds? >> no. i don't understand the bond market at this point. i can make the case long or short. in that case, i make the case to stand aside. i own a little bit of gold in my own trading account. i'm short a few s&p futures. i'm long a few gold futures. nothing dramatic but that's just a punt. be as neutral as possible. that's the big decision. that's not usual or common. >> thanks for coming by. dennis, almost zero in equities here. numont mining. >> gold should be higher. dennis pointed out it's not. i think you have to wait for these guys to report. i would much rath buy numont on straenlt. give it a week or so. >> they dropped wrelss and entertainment. >> total smack down for wwe. it was a disappointing numbers.
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i think they were hoping for a million. i came in at 800 i think. it is a hedge fund, that probably added on to the selling today. i like the mcmahons. >> mannkind. dropped 8%. >> the new drug should be approved and the fda, stock drops 8%, i would stay far away from this. >> never say die after many years from the sequel of "goonies" is currently in the works. he's hoping to reunite the original cast including josh brolin. it tells a tale of friends who stumble on treasurer. next is die very jens.
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>> i saw that again. and i went back it's so good. >> why do you continue to lie to america. >> who knows what else. >> i'm not trying to change the subject. you see what our -- earlier in the show you mentioned it went over like a led balloon and you see they came in with dennis segment with led zeppelin. >> you're trying to change -- any way, internet stocks losing ground. but traders are betting it won't last long. dave made it to the smart board. >> found his way to the smart board. good work. >> these internet stocks caught attention. pandora, yelp and linked in down. linked in made a new 52 low today. these stocks traded three to four average daily volume. i want to highlight pandora
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today, this is an interesting one. it got upgraded at a bank here. look at the stock over here. somebody looked out to may expiration and bought the may 31, 35 call spread paying 55 cents for that 22,000 times when the stock was $26. the break even is up at $31.55. if you look at this chart, i mean this is really where this is the level. this is the chart month to date here. this is where this breaks even up there and look what it did to imply volatility. it shot it up. the main point here, people making up side foolish bets on internet names. >> which is music to karen'sary considering pandora. >> look at that. >> yes. >> you bought pandora friday. >> i bought pandora friday. have nothing good to say about it. it's really been a terrible trade. i probably will buy more if it
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goes down. i haven't done enough work to really know. thankfully. >> check out the website options acti action.cnbc.com. well the biotech has dropped in the past month. a analyst joins us after the break straight ahead. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ tires screech ] chewley's finds itself in a sticky situation today after recalling its new gum. [ male announcer ] stick it to the market before you get stuck. get the most extensive charting wherever you are with the mobile trader app from td ameritrade.
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. the biotech double maybe spiraling to a break down. biotech etf has fallen more than 18%. let's bring in dr. werbert. biotech is in this unfortunate world where the momentum socks are being taken to the wood shed and the stocks have had great run-ups as well. you say there are still opportunities here and go in despite the overall macro look
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in the market does not look favorable for this sector? >> we have been putting out notes saying are we in a biotech bubble. the last one went out three weeks ago. evaluation really have looked stretched. if you look to date, 2014 is shaping out to be the second best ever for ipos after 2000. the sector was up another 20%. earlier this year it gave it back. last year the sector was up 75%. i think it was time for selloff and consolidation. we saw some profit taking. if you look at large cap, it is very reasonably priced. the stocks are growing 20%, 30% and trading 25 times maybe. some are in value territory. >> so focusing on the large cap, when you talk about sane
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valuations are you looking at straight food pegs? >> yes looking at them versus the s&p 500. if you look at the group, it's defensible. you have a lot of visibility under earnings for the next three to five years. we're comfortable saying a lot are growing almost all north of 20%. small mid cap is tougher. you have got to be more selective there. >> i want to talk about one of your top four picks and that that's -- so mid this year and seven pipeline read youts for the full year, 2014. it seems like there are a number of catalysts. which is the key here? >> the first one and they're still in the middle of launching
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tech sadara. it's an oil product. they have done well in the u.s. and launching in europe. we think numbers are upwards on both revenues and eps and trading at 22 times and we think they're going to do 22% or more gross in the next three years. specifically they're launching another product and then two hemophelia products and they have several products and most are very innovative. some may not work. but if any work, they can unlock sizeable markets. they are mid stage compounds. but again, they're not in people's models so the numbers should be biased upwards long term. >> i'm still trying to find out where the bubble is. there's some big cap bioteches cheaper than big cap pharma with
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better product lines. but you loot at amjen, you mentioned value territory. i think they're in ridiculous value territory. >> theat's a good point. they have been trading in union son and going up more or less the same amount. there's some differentiation. this year they're beginning to separate to the haves and have-nots and companies like xeljnen are beginning to worry about the long term outlook and boijen where you're not going to have generic long term running back trading at high. people are now worrying are they going to be able to grow over the next five years or are they going to peak in the next three years. it's trading in value territory. they have a patent case.
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we think they're going to prevail. that's why that stock is trading where it is. over time that should correct. >> doctor, we have got to leave it there. never enough time to discuss biotech. we appreciate it. we have some breaking news and going to the newsroom. >> city group announced it has reached an agreement. they will make an binding off to the 68 sponsored mortage paying $1.12 billion. much of the settlement has been priced into the stock. citi has taken $101 million in 2014. the settlement is the same as other settlements that bank of america and jpmorgan reached. shares unchanged after hours. melissa. >> want to go back to the biotech discussion. i think the point you made about
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large cap pharma versus biotech is interesting. but what are you looking at large cap pharma. >> i think it's fine. but people talk about the bubbles in biotech. but if you compare it to their close knit brothers, and they're actually cheap, so i don't think so there's a bubble at all. bubble to me implies valuations are stretched. >> it doesn't have to be just valuation when you look at the s&p spider select biotech. that thing went parabowl lick. it was the prior to 52 weeks and went up. to me, it's at the prior breakout level. it stopped at the moving average. if the market kind of holds, that's probably one you want to go back to and make back some losses over the last couple weeks. >> tonight is the highly anticipated ncaa championship
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game. yukon versus kentucky. could the stocks predict the winner? we've got a stock face-off next. mine was earned in korea in 1953. afghanistan, in 2009. orbiting the moon in 1971. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote.
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or i and that would be connecticut. today was not delightful doesn't go well for connecticut tonight. i don't know what other criteria one could use to make some sort of prediction. >> i'm a connecticut camp as well -- yeah look at -- you or i had a lousy day. i i that plus the fact -- >> oh you agree. yeah. >> i think people penal lies him. they have divested themselves. >> not anymore. >> connecticut wins our fast money face-off. will they win the game tonight? we'll see. >> what does one and one have to
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do with the other? >> it really doesn't. any way, coming up on "mad money." first up, malincrod, find out what's ahead for the company. here's what the ceo had to say about the competitiveness about solar energy. >> it's within a few years we're going to be approaching 20% at the module level which are efficiencies two years ago no one would have thought about. >> does it mean you're competitive with all the other fuels without subsidies? >> that's correct. they talked about we are competitive against -- >> against gas, against coal. >> dan, you were saying if the market continues to crack, solar could be the next one to fall. >> solar city and solar etf,
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today it was down 7%. if solar cracks, this thing is going to crack hard. >> dennis says it's too dicy for his blood. i think first solar is interesting but you have got to have an iron constitution. >> that you don't have. >> that i don't have. >> coming back. stay tuned. latte or au lait?
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request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. time for the final trade around the world. brian? >> you know, there's one name that's held up well in the last couple weeks. bungy. >> karen. >> i think google, the selloff is overdone and dan has talked about it as being relatively inexpensive without counting all the cash they have. i would buy it here. it really doesn't matter. >> we have to pronounce it bungy. they make those cords that you
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jump off new zealand the bridges. >> anyway. >> now you think that's quite shocking. look at the way it trended today. they report towards the end of the month. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends and i just want to let up. my job is not just to educate you, but entertain you. call me at 800-743 help cnbc. or tweet me at

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