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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  April 8, 2014 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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good deal. i would take a look. >> go. >> take a breather. >> anthony. >> mortgage stanley. >> navigator. >> family dollar looks interesting my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm trying to make you a little money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or of course, tweet me @jim cramer. let us speak of wounded money managers and stocks you might own. let's flush out the dislocations between what might be on your
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stock screener and what's in fact reality. that's the only way to explain the recent session where the dow advanced ten points, the nasdaq rebounded from the abyss. climbing .81%. see, most people immediately and naturally want to tie the action in a stock including the hideous action in many high fliers of late, little bounce today, what's happening at the underlying company and i have to tell you that's a quaint, at avisic approach to the market. one you need to shake yourself loose from if you ever make peace with your portfolio. consider this. i have been watching two ultra consistent stocks, ones i say i like very much. get really banged around. over the last few days at least. time warner and cbs. i have been searching up and down to find an explanation of what's wrong with these two. time warner is such a winner. it's got a big dividend, it's
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making oodles of money. a voracious buyer, the ceo, a great american, has developed some of most successful hit programs of all time including "game of thrones" and the hbo go service is a remarkable way amor tyczing service. as for cbs, it's a hit machine. generating series after series that can be repackaged and sent overseas. the company makes more than $20 million a year from "i love lucy." but these stocks, these two stocks, they have been under tremendous selling pressure of late. now, i have been asking everyone is time warner going down because it was supposed to get a bigger dividend? is it supposed "game of thrones" crashed hbo go? is cbs actually asked this favor today, is cbs getting slammed because letterman is retiring, because the competition for nbc's own jimmy fallon, not that
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i can get a ticket to see it. sure enough, i found the answer. it has nothing to do with the actual companies. i think it's because of hedge funds gone wild. just this morning we learned that code two management, some $7 million hedge fund has been hammered mercilessly and going to return $2 billion to investors because of the volatility among its holdings. as someone who used to run a hedge fund, when you hear the word vol -- volatility for we have been laid to waste. so when we peel back the onion guess what we see? how about that cbs and time warner are this hedge fund's first and third largest positions according to recent reports. code 2 is supposed to have $865 billion in cbs and in time warner according to the recent reports. you know what?
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that makes the stocks sales in this game. that's why i'm sure that code 2's problems have more to do with the declines in cbs and time warner than anything that les moonves, ceo of cbs, or time warner's ceo might have done at their companies. thing is the classic examples of turning good stocks into weak ones as opposed to bad fundamentals. don't forget when that's blood in the water over hedge funds shoot at the code 2s. let's talk about supply for a moment. i keep telling you about this concept of too much stock becoming public and being sold by inride issers for days on end now. ant, i heard a money manager asked about whether supply, specifically from insider selling is playing in i role in the recent sell-off. the manager shrugged it off. said it wasn't a factor. frankly, i was stunned at his answer. this kind of naivete is shocking to me.
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you have learned nothing from that era. so let me enlighten you. first stocks go higher because there's more demand than supply. that's the way it works. at the end of the day, people, stocks are simply merchandised no different from sweaters or coats or toilet paper, outdoor furniture, whatever. merchants can charge more for any of the items when that's a scarcity. but they have to discount them when there's a plethora. you think i would have gotten a $10 discount on my bill for proctor & gamble products if proctor wasn't trying to move product? do you think it i -- the steal i did on red hots and message hearts last month at rite-aid if it were the week before valentine's day? watch what happens to the easter candy. you can have all the jelly bellies and chocolate easter bunnies that you want. that's why i bought so little at the dollar tree on sunday.
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don't believe for a minute it's not the same for stocks. when a company becomes public not every trade is free to trade. insiders are locked up. finically for six -- typically for six months. you can only own the sliver of stock in order to stimulate demand and generate that pop in the stock that gets written about and talked about so much. the way hedge and mutual funds will sell, here's what they do. they sell some existing holdings and they get in on the ipos. of course no give without a get. so the big funds often tacitly agreed to buy 1,000 shares and 100,000 shares for a nice blended average that provides a nice instant game at the end of the day. then over time, the stock owned by insiders gets unlocked. suddenly the dam that kept back the rest of the river is open and anyone swimming the reservoir gets drowned with new
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insider supply. and insider stock isn't the only stock coming out from behind the dam. over and over again this has been pounded with wave after wave of initial public offerings. today we had no deals, by the way, that's a major reason we put in a late day rally. but don't worry, this week's on target to be the biggest one for ipo since 2007. may i remind you a very inauspicious time for the market if you recall. with deals coming for everything from casual restaurants and software, to tankers, early stage bio companies and i bet each will cause a sell-off because there isn't enough money coming in over the transom to buy all this stuff without selling something else. that's the supply situation writ large took a little break today. finally as i root around for reasons why bonds are so strong, interest rates are so low, come back to waves of money coming in from russia.
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i'm getting the sense that the ukraine issue which was back burner in the face of the rotation is still lurking and causing money to land here from over there. but it's landing in places that distort traditional relationships. tomorrow for example, i think we'll hear from the last month's fed minutes. that there was little need for the fed to keep buying bonds because the economy is improving. i think it's because of foreign money. the casual observer to the market sees that the rally in bond prices and down and the interest rates going lower, interest rates are going lower, draws the wrong conclusion. all the bond buying signals market softness which means sell stocks that starts with alcoa which is a mistake if you were selling that because you thought there was weakness in the world. did you notice that not one single thing i just mentioned has anything to do with the businesses that stocks are supposed to represent? not a thing.
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they might as well be in two different universes, the stock and the company. which is why it is so mystifying to so many people. but it's plain as day to those of us who lived through other times when the dikes burst and the supply came roaring over our heads, causing most to drown the flood with many never knowing what hit them. let's go to sam in new jersey. sam. >> caller: big booyah, mr. cramer. >> back at you. >> caller: i'd like to know your rating on loomis. it's been going down a lot lately. >> well, you know, look, i mean, the lumos is a poster boy for the era. fiber based service provider, look at what happened to cnf. that company was absolutely destroyed during this period. so you know people don't want anything to do right now with telco innards let's call it that. now, as confounding as it may seen, sometimes the action of the stock doesn't represent the company.
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and you've got to be prepared for that realization, i have to tell you it's not easy to reconcile. don't worry, you have me in your corner. up next on "mad money," there's a battle brewing over warren buffe buffett. stick around to see why the oracle is under fire and what it means for his high profile investments and yours. i'm telling you to do your homework. well, earnings season kicked off and this is a report i never miss. take a deeper dive into alcoa. fresh off earnings with me, just ahead. "mad money" will be right back. coming up, price check from single dollar stocks to triple digit behemoths, cramer is counting down the best investments for your buck all week. tonight, a company equally at home in your car or your home. find out why it could belong in your portfolio too. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question?
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tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. aflac. ♪ aflac, aflac, aflac! ♪ [ both sigh ] ♪ ugh! ♪ you told me he was good, dude. yeah he stinks at golf. but he was great at getting my claim paid fast. how fast? mine got paid in 4 days. wow. that's awesome. is that legal? big fat no. [ male announcer ] find out how fast aflac can pay you
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at aflac.com. [ male announcer ] find out how fast aflac can pay you gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. growth? growth. i just talked to ups. they've got a lot of great ideas. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics.
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whenever i see an article that criticizes warren buffett berkshire hathaway, i know it's time to look over his portfolio for some terrific ideas. so when i saw this piece in "the new york times" over the weekend entitled, the oracle of omaha lately looking a bit ordinary, it made me want to jump up and down for top ten holdings because i know it must be time for the stocks to shine. when it seems like buffett may have lost his touch, that's when his bets really start to pay off. >> buy buy why! >> yep, "the new york times" suggested the underperformance is unlikely to be a string of
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bad luck. sure enough, this piece comes out at a moment when momentum funds are falling by the way side and what's hot has become what's not. and at the moment where investment advisers like dennis gartman are saying it's time to exit equities wholesale i think there's a lot to like about what buffett owns. first, there's wells fargo. they report this friday. it's been a leader in returning can tall and raising the dividends. even without a lot of growth in the u.s. economy. and it's a u.s. based story. wells fargo is the bank has a fabulous mortgage and you can pretty much count on buffett buying more. next up is coca-cola. now, i'm not a fan of coca-cola because of the rapid decline of diet and carbonated drinks in this country. it's holding up fine. third is american express. who among us doesn't wish we
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opened -- owned this juggernaut? and it's controlled the international merging market. fourth is ibm. when the software in the cloud-based high fliers are falling apart, ibm shines. buffett's long view plays a big view here. because buying back stocks it gets to its software house in order. i think 2015 is when ibm will produce both better margins and better revenues. buffett is a patient man. maybe you should be. my charitable trust is. fifth, is proctor & gamble. i know they're trying to perform better in emerging markets, but it just boosted dividends, keeping you enticed. buffett's sixth largest holding is exxon. i think it's going down because exxon is going to stray extremely lucrative even if it hasn't been able to grow production. warren loves buy back, seventh is walmart.
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i think this company while not a favorite has at least stabilized the decline. not a reason to own it. but you can do a lot worst. eighth is a personal favorite of mine, u.s. bank corps. it's a huge returner of capital. ever notice how you hear about the guys get in trouble? that's because they don't. they have terrific internal controls. ninth is directv. how did warren know to buy this one, it's doing so well. and in a land scarce of media properties he has one of the most coveted around. ten, it's one of the best baby boomers story out there. smart man that buffett. bottom line, i think anyone looking for total value ideas will be hard pressed to find any better than this portfolio. it's the antidote to the madness affecting the market or at least the nasdaq as well as those who fear their shadow. warren buffett, i'm a buyer not
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a seller. i think this year is lots about to change. "mad money" is back after this. coming up -- u.s. auto sales were on the rise. so can investing in the future of the car put you in the driver's seat? and later, second win? the old giant of tech ibm has lagged while amazon sprinted up wall street. but is big blue on the verge of getting a burst of new energy? find out when cramer goes "off the charts." all coming up on "mad money." p "
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so ally bank really has no hidden fees on savings accounts? p " that's right, no hidden fees. it's just that i'm worried about, you know, "hidden things." ok, why's that? well uhhh... surprise!!! um... well, it's true. at ally there are no hidden fees. not one. that's nice.
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no hidden fees, no worries. al your money needs an ally. welcome back to the "mad money" countdown. every day this week, we're counting down the best of the best stocks in each price range in the market. except this time we're breaking this down a little differently. we're not grouping stocks by sector or by market cap or by valuation. no, this countdown is all about one thing. the dollar amount where a stock happens to be trading. last night i picked price line as my favorite in the over $500 category. tonight, we are looking at the $100 to $500. thursday, 10 to 50 and friday, my number one pick or maybe even two under $10. now, before all the haters start tweeting that cramer has finally lost his marbles or hate me
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anyway, lots of that lately, yes, i know the stock and share price is totally meaningless. we value them on an apples to apples basis using the price to multiple earnings that's divided by the earnings per share. but i know that sometimes investors care about things in defiance of all logic. regardless of whether or not it makes sense, i'm sure many of you group stocks into these dollar amount categories. so rather than preach at youed a infy fly tum about how you're doing it wrong i'm going into full blast pander mode, i'm giving you one price for each bracket. what's my favorite stock trading in the 100 to $500 bracket right now? in this case, it's a stock that just barely makes the $100 cutoff. i'm talking about harmon -- like $1,000 speaker. i'm talking about harmon
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international and made you look, a $7 billion company with $103 stocks that manufactures some of the best headphones as well as high end speakers and you can get these homes, cars, even stadiums. you might recognize them as harmon cardin or jbl, as well as making dashboard interface systems for luxury cars. ones that integrate navigation and safety to media and smartphone connectivity. all which are bundled together in the infotainment system. a lot of people consider me an infotainment system. i think we should save that for harmon. they have a professional segment that provides audio and lighting for fixed venue installation, think grammys and super bowl halftime show. the latter has been using them for 12 straight years. or more recent, you know the academy of country music awards a couple of days ago?
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the thing about harmon is that they're not merely a major player in each of the industries. no, they're an absolute gorilla. they're considered the gold standard in audio both for professional grade sound systems and consumer speakers and car stereos. meanwhile, they're use by nine of the 15 largest automakers. speaking of car, that's the most important part of their business, in europe and in asia today. you have 25 million cars on the road equipped with their entertainment system. the reason i like them is because this is a proprietary business. this company not just some darn old speaker company. it's a serial innovatinnovator. it's got around 350 patents pending. harmon's protected by the patents and by the strength of
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its brand which is respected as the best in the business. they don't make just the hardwa hardware. roughly 70% of the business is software. think about it. doing navigation, safety, wireless connectivity. the proprietary edge is why they're winning awards from the automakers themselves. it's the classic stealth technology name. the kind i talk about in "get rich carefully." this infotainment stuff it used to be part of the luxury cars. but lately the auto makers have been installing the system in more and more regular cars too. normally you'd associate harmon with bmw and mercedes, real -- audi, real high end brands. but for example, they're selling them in chrysler, much better than expected in the segment of the market that's not that luxury. meanwhile, they have a contract with general motors. set to launch in 2017 and can
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provide a big boost to numbers in the out years. in the not too distant future, i bet each car will have an infotainment deck. you can see demand spreading. apple just rolled out their car place system which lets you to sink up your iphone, a much safer way to use your car phone when you drive. once again, it will boost the demand for harmon's technology. a company announced the next generation version of the infotainment service with cyber security protections and a plot form to make it easy for third party companies to have connected car apps. i think the safety futures are especially important from the automakers in the wake of the giant gm recalls. they can't afford to risk any malfunctions. now, they have been on an epic tear. they're up 189% since we spoke with the ceo.
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i have to tell you, we have to have him back. when he came here in june of 2012, the stock has just continued to rally. it's up more than 30% since last october. this is one of the -- this is one of the great -- i'm not going to call it that, but it's a great momentum stock. now, they have pulled back pretty hard over the last week. six days ago it peaked at $112.20. now it's $105.35. i think this stock is darn cheap selling for just 19 times next year's earnings estimates. despite having a 24% long term growth rate. remember, that's even better than priceline last night. the fact is we have seen them trade as high as 30 times earnings within the past decade. i think you'd have a lot more run to room. one more last point -- timing. they report in three weeks. i think you need to why this one before that happens. why? because for the last four quarters, harmon has blown away the numbers.
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when the company reported the most recent quarter at the end of january many analysts were cautious, believing the car was too high and they vaulted over that bar. thanks to a terrific execution in the deluge of new businesses including seven earned $25 million worth of new infotainment contracts. you want a stock trading to $100 to $500 that can work here? i like harmon international industries. now listen to me, we never ch e chase. stock was up $5.47. that's too much for this guy, but didn't want to cancel this piece because this was the best over $100. i think it's worth it to wait to see if it comes down. still seven points off the high and still has multiple years of upside. fozzy, welcome back, in colorado. >> caller: hey, jimbo, i'm looking at yahoo! here. and are people out of their minds?
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$10 billion left on in the microsoft bid of six years ago. >> right. but fozzy, i mean, what, the stock has fallen b but it's a remarkable performer. people understand this as being a deriftive -- derivative of ali baba. so perhaps that won't be the god send that yahoo! is. i think it's a buy that's come down too much and therefore, it's an opportunity. tom in tennessee. tom? >> caller: yeah, jim, my question is, it's about micron. great earnings, great conference call. great guidance and like you said on friday morning on "squawk on the street," this stock is going up. i agreed with you totally and just to watch it fall like a rock. what's going on? >> well, my friend herb greenberg who writes reality
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check who appears on cnbc has said that guidance isn't that exceptional. it's the idea that maybe pricing has peaked in some of the divisions. i think micron is a stock i have to do a toss-up and figure out which one is right. it does have a little bit more of a kentucky feel than a uconn feel right now. you know that i want you investing in the stock market. i understand that everyone has a different budget they're working with. so this week we're looking at great stocks in every price range and starting from sky high yesterday with priceline and in the $100 range hitting the ball out of the park. tomorrow we zero in on the $50 range. don't go anywhere, because alcoa kicked off earnings season and i have the ceo coming right up. stay with cramer. tomorrow, kick off the trading day with "squawk on the street." live from post 9 at the nyse. >> oh, okay. that was -- oh, i get it. >> it all starts at 9:00 a.m.
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as we enter the madness of earnings season, i want you to remember there are some companies you absolutely need to pay attention to. only because they provide a
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wealth of information. when it comes to getting a read on the global economy across a whole host of industries, nobody beats alcoa, aa. that gives you insight into commercial construction, packaging, even aluminum heavy industrial machinery like for power plants. alcoa kicks off earnings season. this may be one of the most important, informative conference calls out there. plus, i like the story here asle of koa focuses on higher margin aluminum products for both the aerospace and the other businesses. of course this stock has had a tremendous run lately. rallied from $8, just six months ago, to $12.53 at today's close. up 70% since we spoke with klaus kleinfeld in early january. alcoa is a company that the market seems to love. a cyclical player whose earnings can explode higher if we get a marked improvement in the
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economy. they delivered a 9 cent earnings. a 4 cents earnings beat. they boosted the aerospace forecast and that's why the stock was up nicely in after hours. let's check in with claus kle kleinfe kleinfeld, chairman and ceo. welcome back to "mad money." >> good to talk to you, jim. >> it seems like this was the quarter that was the breakout quarter, you realized there are two alcoalcoa. one is actually starting to become a value added company. quite different from when you took over. describe them. >> yes, that's true. i mean, we basically look at the value at businesses. there we have two large chunks. our downstream business and the downstream business again had a record profitable quarter. then we have the midstream business, and we almost tripled the profitability from the last
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quarter. very much driven by auto sheet. then we have at the same time we have our upstream business and we also see that we are making good strides and we see that we are improving our performance and this is a tenth consecutive quarter of upstream improvement. >> at a certain point because you have lowered your break even so dramatically, when would it make sense to separate the two companies because if one can stand on its own and the others have great growth, why be held back by the company that's a raw company and not value added company? >> look, we have -- i personally have eliminated two words from our vocabulary. core businesses or strategic businesses. we look at a range off of the portfolio of different businesses, and we have to answer the question what can we as alcoa bring to the table when we run those businesses? and only if the answer is a positive one, then i think we have the right to own these
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businesses. so frankly, you have to ask yourself the question, are we running those businesses better with a higher value for the shareholders than others? and we are constantly looking at other options and i think when you look at the strategy, the improvement on the performance side in the value added businesses, the value added businesses have made up 57% of the revenues and 76% of the profits. when you see how we're bringing down the cost point on the upstream side, how we're turning aluminum into a real performance gem, i think you would come to the same conclusion that currently the structure is the right structure. but we're constantly evaluating that. >> let's look at the world, because you raised your aerospace view. kept everything else pretty consistent. you're still talking about 7% global aluminum demand, yet, there's an anomaly here. because aluminum price per metric ton was $103 higher last
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year. how can you have a 7% growth in demand and yet still be valued at less year over year? >> well, you cannot just look at the lei price. i guess that's the number you have been looking at. you have to look at the regional premium that has established itself. what we have seen here over the last years is a stronger financialization of the lme trading. today, the 75 to 85% of the market participants have absolutely zero interest to have our own -- to own a gram of aluminum. that's why the real -- the real meeting of minds on people that want physical metal is reflected in the regional premiums and that's why you have seen regional premiums going up. >> okay. so we've dealt with what i regard as being kind of the down and the dirty business. let's talk about the value added businesses. we see lightweighting, you have talked to me about it over the years. it seems like it has impact on
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the bottom line this quarter. >> well, it does have impact on the bottom line and it's just the beginning. i mean, keep in mind, i mean, we have just brought on line end of last year davenport expansion, the f-150 was announced at the auto show and we're starting -- talking about preproduction volumes. we believe that this will increase and will become very soon over 1 billion business auto sheet alone. that is very, very exciting. we see this as a trend not just ford. ford is clearly the front-runner here, but everybody is following because it makes so much sense. we see it not only by the way in the automotive business. we see it in commercial transportation. the commercial transportation market is coming back very nice. we just brought out two new wheels. one is a wheel that is the lightest wheel in the market,
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47% lighter than the steel. 18% lighter than on average an aluminum wheel. we have a new magna, 17% stronger. on top of it we have what's called our coating which makes it shine forever which looks like clean. you don't need to clean it at all any more. this is exciting things that are going on. >> and then one other thing that's important is that you and i have talked about the notion that aerospace, people think it's slowed down. boeing and airbus has declined. you raised your forecast which you take very seriously going from 8 to 9 from previously 7 to 8. inventory issue seems over. and it looks like aerospace is once again the jewel of growth in your company. >> well, i think aerospace is a jewel and the good news is we are standing on multiple jewels. i just mentioned automotive and commercial transportation. but i could talk about the coming back of the construction
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market that wasn't a big slump, but it's coming back now. which is very, very good. aerospace is clearly doing very, very well. 26 billion off orders in the last month. coming from japan alone. the singapore air show was a great success. more than eight years of auto backlogs i can go on and on. the regional jet segment that was a little dent in the crisis has come back. now they have a five-year auto backlog. the great news is we are playing in so many fields. our portfolio is from structural components to engine components, to every single one of those we have a position. this is not purely based on the aluminum. titanium, nickel. a great, great business. we can bring the true strengths of our core which means innovation. totally to our customers and they like it. >> okay, while we'd normally celebrate with a bud light
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aluminum can, but we have to move on. klaus kleinfeld, chairman and ceo of alcoa. this is a breakout year. the stock has moved from 7 to 12, it's up a lot. if you see some analysts say it's moved too far, too fast it comes in a little, you know i think it's a buy. the company has reinvented itself. stick with cramer. stick with cr. to show how many years that amount might last. i was trying to, like, pull it a little further. [ woman ] got me to 70 years old. i'm going to have to rethink this thing. it's hard to imagine how much we'll need for a retirement that could last 30 years or more. so maybe we need to approach things differently, if we want to be ready for a longer retirement. ♪
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>> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. >> it is time. it is time for the lightning round. you say the name of the stock. i don't know the calls or the name of the stock ahead of time. i tell you whether to buy or sell. when you hear this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the "lightning round." i want to start with joan ann in new york. >> caller: hey, big booyah to you, jim. >> right back at you. >> caller: i'm sitting on some gnrc. >> gen rock is a play on the electrical grid. we ought to have one of these, i'm a buyer. tran in wisconsin. >> caller: what's your opinion on ati. it had big volume. >> i think the restructuring has really worked for them.
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i have always liked the company. i like high end alloyed steel. but i also like new corps and any charitable trust owns tim kin which is splitting in two. shelby in texas. shelby? >> caller: booyah, jim, from houston. the energy capital of the world. >> yes, indeed. certainly not the football capital. what's up? >> caller: i'd like to thank you for everything and secondly what's your thoughts on frank's international? >> i have been a buyer. it's been a bad call, but i'm not backing away one bit. i think the oil and gas renaissance in this country is real. and it's going higher. let's go to sam in illinois. sam? >> caller: hey, jimbo, thanks for all you do thanks for the priceless education. >> thank you. >> caller: i listen to the quarter -- but i don't know if i should stick with them. i'm down, it's pioneer natural
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resources. >> i think sheffield is the real deal. i genuinely believe they're sit on top of one of the biggest oil fields in the world. only sell pioneer when it's breaking out not when it's breaking down. let's go to steve. >> caller: hey, go go has been a great stock to trade in with the market changes happening. what do you think about it now? >> well, frankly, i found when we went head to head go go versus buyer sat, i thought maybe there's too much competition in this group. go go can certainly bounce, but not one i want to kind of base my portfolio on. let's go to don in virginia. don? >> caller: hey, booyah, jim. >> booyah, don. >> caller: should i close the position -- >> cn is a cautionary tale. charitable trust sold some higher and some lower.
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i didn't see a lot to write about home in the quarter. i will play it safe, too low to sell. i can't bear it. a disappointment. john in michigan. john? >> caller: jimmy james, a big dearborn booyah. >> what's going on? i like the chinese number. >> caller: i like your take on black stone. >> i think black stone is a treasure trove of value. i like that for a double. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. [ buzzer ] >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. coming up -- second wind? amazon delivered for shareholders in 2013. but after starting this year with the near 20% sell-off, could an old, familiar name be better suited to plug you into profits? ♪
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♪ ♪ [ tires screech ] chewley's finds itself in a sticky situation today after recalling its new gum. [ male announcer ] stick it to the market before you get stuck. get the most extensive charting wherever you are with the mobile trader app from td ameritrade. wherever you are with the mobile trader app we did a 27-point inspection on your chevy,ce, you got new tires and our price match guarantee. who's this little guy? that's birney. oh, i bet that cone gives him supersonic hearing. watch what you say around him. i've been talking a lot about his procedure... (whispering) what? get our everyday price match guarantee plus a $100 rebate on 4 select tires from your tire experts. chevy certified service.
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why have value stocks been rallying and until today, high fliers been seeing the wings clipped? i could explain the dichotomy to you all day, but how about tonight we take a different approach to what's going on with the market? yep, tonight we're going off the charts. to illustrate what this rotation out of the trendy and hip into the dull and dirty is doing. with the help of a terrific technician what's the managing director of bar chet that
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management. we are looking at two stocks that exemplified both sides of the story. amazon the once beloved turbo charged growth stock and ibm with an ugly track record, but a darn cheap stock that's been flying for the last two months. up 21 points since the beginning of february. his idea is to play this rotation by selling the strength in amazon today and simultaneously buying the weakness in ibm. it's a pairs trade. the idea is you take two stocks in the same sector, in this case, tech. you buy the one that will outperform and sell the one that you believe will underperform. if both end up going down, you still make some money so long as the bet against goes farther down than the one you bet on. despite the action in other words, taking that off the table, you should be selling amazon and buying ibm no questions asked. i told you repeatedly there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the high flying growth names that have been getting slaughtered. we know the supply is more
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important than most fundamentals. in other words, amazon hasn't suddenly started to do much worse, but the fundamentals are only one part of the story when in the stock market. you have to deal with the te tech -- technicals when dealing with the charts. when it comes to amazon, pretty much everything that goes wrong seems to be going wrong. even though today it rallied. check out amazon's daily stock for a moment. it's made a lower high and a lower low. both key ingredients of a down trend and that's not all. you can see that last week amazon fell through the 200 day moving average. a long term measure of the stock's trajectory and a single that tells many to simply hit the eject button. even worse, ponzi says that the 50 day moving average measures the trajectory now seems poised
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to cross below the 200 day moving average on heavy volume. which he thinks is an ominous sign that downside momentum is building. how low can amazon go? from his perspective, this is a $327 stock that appears destined to rendezvous with a $288 destiny. which is the next major support. in other words, ponzi, not me, he thinks the pain is far from over. now let's take a look at ibm's daily chart. a thing of beauty here. wow. when i saw it, i smiled. he thinks this one is as close to perfect as he's seen in a long time. the exact opposite of amazon. the 50 day moving average are also about to cross -- about to cross the 200 day. just the opposite, right? ibm's case it's because it's above the 200 day. exact opposite of what's happening with amazon right now.
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meanwhile, ibm is very close to breaking through the ceiling of resistance at 195. which has been putting a cap on the stock since september. now less than three smackers away. beyond that, the action of ibm over the last seven months is a rounded bottom pattern. haven't seen that. that's why i thought this was a good chart. that's a very bullish chart. once it breaks out and above 185, he believes it can return fast to last year's high of $215. that would be something because the last couple quarters have been nothing to write home about. and it means there's no further resistance beyond that level, so it's smooth sailing he says if ibm can crack this ceiling. one last point. now, take a look at this one. this is really interesting. take a gander at this chart comparing amazon with the performance of ibm. i thought -- i found this to be mesmerizing. he points out the last two
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stocks have traded in opposite directions. they're like the bizarre super man and super man. me like i'm ugly? in 2013, amazon was roaring higher and ibm was getting clubbed. but since the beginning of 2014, when the fed said things are getting better, ibm has been roaring and amazon is going back to earth. until today, where these -- a momentum -- the hedge funds and mutual funds have been treating the stocks like atms because selling them is a way to quickly withdraw cash that can buy more attractive merchandise. ibm has a huge buy back that will make the company more software oriented. the two reasons why my charitable trust owns the stock. here's the bottom line. the high fliers bounced back today, but based on the charts interpreted by ed ponzi, the
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momentum names have a lot more ways to fall. i think he's right about ibm. although amazon, that win has nine lives. i don't think we have seen the last of it just yet. stay with cramer. h cramer. without standard leather. you are feeling exhilarated with front-wheel drive. you are feeling powerful with a 4-cylinder engine. [ male announcer ] open your eyes... to the 6-cylinder, 8-speed lexus gs. with more standard horsepower than any of its german competitors. this is a wake-up call. ♪
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this is a wake-up call. gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. growth? growth. i just talked to ups. they've got a lot of great ideas. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics.
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a lot of ipos coming. let's stay cautious. there's a bull market somewhere. i promise to find it for you on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow. >> tonight on the profit... i go inside sweet pete's, a confectionary shop whose candy-obsessed owner has created a huge variety of sweets. >> that's the caramel. >> that is good. but with a horrible location... part of location is having foot traffic. and i don't see that here. a partnership gone bad... >> i'm calling you out on your integrity. it's crap. >> and an outdated kitchen that won't allow him to keep up with demand... there is a limit to the output, and you're the limit. if i can't turn this business around... >> i don't see how i can go forward. >> sweet pete's will come to a bitter end. >> you guys misrepresent my integrity. >> no, i'm calling you out on-- >> i'm sorry. >> my name is marcus lemonis, and i fix failing businesses. >> we made $10,000 together. >> i make tough decisions... we'll change the recipes. >> i mean, that would be the last thing i'd want to do.

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