tv Fast Money CNBC April 11, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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we had some big pull backs for the week. we're going to take a look at the biggest stocks facing the biggest pull backs and whether they're buy, sell or hold. >> that is the question. if they can answer it, that would help us all out. it's going to be a long weekend. a lot of homework to do. >> it will be. fast money starts right now. the nasdaq getting hurt the highest. is this a buying opportunity? or will the sell-off get worse. our traders tonight are tim seymour -- but first breaking news on general motors on what mary barra knew about the recall. a lot of documents coming out this afternoon from the house energy and commerce commit eye. 2,000 documents in all handed over from general motors and the national transportation safety committee. what's getting a lot of attention this afternoon is one particular e-mail sent to mary
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barra back in 2011. to set the stage why this is important, mary barra has said from the beginning of this crisis starting at the beginning of the year that she knew nothing about the ignition switch issues or the recall prior to january. now there is an e-mail in which she was sent an e mail by an engineer. it says mary during the initial cobalt case, the ion data did not justify being included. the situation has been evofling. we will meet and understand the latest data. general motors a few minutes ago tweeted out this response, the e-mail to mary barra references a saturn ion steering issue which is completely separate from the ig nation related gm recall. this is just part of the initial dumb of documents. they did discuss the cost of the
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ignition switch. they make it clear that it would have cost $500,000 changing over the ignition switch. one e-mail stands out that was sent from a gentleman at general motors. in that e-mail, he says, look, i am very aware of the inadvertent ignition off. the con , in other words, the the negative is that the piece cost went up around 90 cents and would require $400,000 in tooling and add almost $500,000 in volume. all these documents coming in the middle of the day are why you see gm shares really took it on the chin after 2:00 this afternoon. just over $32 now. that's the latest in terms of these documents and whether or not mary barra was at least given a heads up regarding the ions and the chevy cobalt. there are no documents from mary barra to anyone else. we don't know if she read this,
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didn't read it, and what kind of conversation may have taken place. >> thanks for that, again. gm shares closing close to session lows. what do you think? it seems like it's getting worse. >> it seems like it's a bit of a witch-hunt. it's about the saturn ion and the cobalt where the comments were she did know something. we don't know. this political maelstrom, which, now, there are a lot of people grabbing onto this thing and trying to make more of a name for themselves. i would be very wary about branding these folks guilty of at least you know perjurinperju. the stock has been punished in a wray that justifies it for the next two to three months. $34.50, $35. the next level on the chart
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looks like $30. right now, i'm not selling my position. this is a company to me on next year's numbers is phenomenally cheap. i love the global auto business and i am here to stay. >> what do the markets do about gm today? >> volatility went up which is what tim would expect and anybody trading the stock would expect. whether or not it's a damning e-mail or not -- the government revealed they were getting out of the last 31, 32 million shares they held of general motors. this would be wherever guy sits these days. guy would say you look for washouts like this for stocks and to tim's point, i would not be exiting the stock here. i would be more buyer. >> i don't know if you could call it a washout just yet.
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if anything, but i hear you, but if anything, what today told us is there could be another couple of layers in this. i would say you could better buy ford here or tesla for that matter. if you wanted to dabble in autos. >> you're calling tesla an auto company now, not an i.t. let's get back to rounding out for the worst week since june 2012. there's some notable stand outs in fiterms of how they traded. even when the nasdaq looks like it was going to make a come back, these stocks performed horribly. >> it's kind of an interesting thing going on when you look at different asset classes here in the market. you're starting to see these long 30 year bonds. a lot of people are saying you know what, that means the can economy is not going to be as
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strong in the future. therefore these highs are just not justified anymore. the growth isn't going to be there. watch the 30-year bond. >> interestingly, gold ended the day flat. >> i think you say gold here. 24 is a dangerous bear market gold rally of which there have been many over the years. and to me, the economy is getting better. the ppi numbers are something you watch. that's exactly what the fed wants to see, we need to see some inflation. i look at the labor numbers this week where 19, at 2007 numbers on jobless claims were fantastic. i think the second quartersaw the economy is going to be much stronger than people expect. and look at the names that have been performing over the last couple days. nickel prices are at one year highs. the industrial side of the economy, that's where you want to trade this thing. that's where there's value. and that's the difference this rotation time. >> we want plefls here.
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the nasdaq went below, numbers that we haven't seen since february 5 of this year. >> levels in the s&p, you have to look at the 100 days. we hovered right beneath it. we did bounce. if this gets lengt lengthier, t we're in trouble. >> the tlt, the bond etf, this particular one had a lot of upside call speculation. a lot of people believed that rates could be going significantly lower, like two five. i would like to see us get back above the 100 day that he just spoke about. there were a whole bunch of
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great trading ranges today. the ranges that these stocks are in are almost double average. >> great long term trading. correlations are not at one. take a look at that stuff. >> let's trade some individual stocks. take a look at the week's biggest losers, do you buy, sill or hold. 6% for this week. bk, would you buy, sill or hold this one. >> i would probably sell it. >> i mean, listen to him on that. all i have to say is they reported earnings. they were good earnings. but their pricing going forward wasn't great. this thing has been a rocket from $5. i mean, that's where regis got in, at $5. so at this point, there's an awful lot of good news. so i would sell it. >> seller of micron. prip down this week. what did you do?
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>> this was one of the ones that i was trading today. trip adviser has just been hammered. and it's down 28% from the high it put in just a month ago. march 10 was the high, and well over $100. now it's trading down to hire. one of the issues is that google getting not into just the searching for hotel rooms and travel and so forth but partnering up with a company that expedia basically is part of. that is troublesome for virtually everybody. it's also insulating expedia against that hit. and it's interesting that expedia was a spinoff out of microsoft back in the day. and now you have google potentially doing some deals in that space. but right now with it down as much as it is, i would be a buyer of trip and a seller of expedia desight what i just said. >> let's talk ban tor yeah, down 11% this week. >> pandora is everything that's being sold right now. it's 55 next year. they are taking market share.
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these guys have 9% of the u.s. radio market. it's fantastic. i think they are getting to an inflection point. i don't think it's here, and i don't think this is the point. i think this company is going to start to monday advertise, but i wouldn't buy it here. >> you're on pandora, aren't you. >> i have been in pandora. i'm not in pandora currently. i think it's a good point to get in the stock. going back to october, december, right around your 25, 25.25 level. >> here's another one for you. yahoo. >> i'm still a yahoo. i sold 80% of my yahoo stake. the thing that's going to help them out is the alibaba.
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all right, guys, raise your hand if you heard this one before. amazon is going to have a smartphone. it's citing sources familiar. think are going to have their own version of a smartphone to be announced in the summertime. released in the fall, maybe september. this one, melissa, will have 3d-like images without the use of goggles or glasses. back over to you guys. wow. that makes me want to buy a phone from amazon. >> i'm a buyer. >> but seriously, this is a stock that's not going to get a
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free pass anymore. >> we were just talking about, amazon has had all these products all along that don't necessarily make money right off the bat and investors have given it a pass n this market environment i don't think amazon gets a pass on this. i think they're going to look at this with a fine toothed comb. how much is it going to cost. >> you are going to have a 3d screen without glasses? don't look at me with that condescending look. >> it's not condescending. it's a feature, would that make you buy that phone over an apple phone or an htc or android? >> they just want more products in your hand that are closer to what they sell. j.p. morgan chase down. making it our first pop trade of the year. jeff, great to have you with us. >> thanks. >> revenues were 5% below your
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own estimate, a lot of that driven by a shortfall in mortgage banks. what's going on with j.p. morgan? what are we sieeing here. are we seeing cracks? >> it was a disappointing quarter. there's no way around that. i use the word death a lot today. it was really across a lot of business lines. the revenues weren't quite where we wanted them to be. the expenses weren't quite where we wanted them to be. it's disappointing overall. it peace hard to say you have to buy j.p. morgan today. the estimates almost have to be a down after today. the more i look through the numbers i saw my 2015 outlook isn't changing that much. you know, i'm also sitting here thinking, if you could look toward 2015, it's still a decent stock to own here. i would caution the market from reading too much into a quarter,
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especially for a bank that's got big capital markets. >> the cuts today for j.p. morgan, will that be gashes next week? and you also have of course goldman sachs. >> i don't think there's a bad read through for the other banks. the investment banking business for j.p. morgan wasn't great, but it was better than we thought. it will be interesting to see from a mortgage production perspective and a credit quality perspective. things are still getting better for j.p. morgan pan krand credi. >> what's your top pick right now? >> as i look across the companies now, i find myself still liking morgan stanley a lot. i do think we'll get some cyclical relief which is good. but you've still got a lot in the retail brokerage business.
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there's some daily specific things going on. and actually, with citigroup being as beaten up as it is, i'm warming up to them. if they resubmit the c-car plan and ramp up the buyback this summer, that's a big factor this summer. morgan stanley, i'm looking at a lot. >> what would you we here? >> city. i think the c-car stuff is noise and it. .8. i like j.p. morgan. when it normalizes, very good. accelerating losses today, names like alexion.
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great to have you here. what names are you focusing on? >> i'm focusing on vertex bio n biogen. they've got a cystic fibrosis drug on the market and they're testing it with another cystic fibrosis drug. it could expand the population. and so that could potentially be a 4 billion combo drug u it could go up to 100 if their negative goes up to 40. this is a really big binary event. >> what are the terms in being
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favorable or not favorable. >> he's a little more neutral about it. >> you're looking at biojen. he this have two hemophilia drugs out there. are they a catalyst? >> they are, in addition to another drug. these are the big drivers in biodrugs. they've got a drug in alzheimer's, lupus. they say look to the earnings companies when you're in a tough spot like you are in biotech right now. >> vertex, that sounds like the perfect -- it's a trade event. >> i traded it yesterday. i did not trade it today. and i traded out of it yesterday. it made a very nice pop. >> how do you trade that if you have this probability of extreme upside or down side? >> i'd have to look at the dates because i was just trading it because of oversold, but i'd
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look at the dates of when they might be reporting the phase results from this combo drug that you just spoke about. >> thank you so much. just quickly, if you take a look, terrible move, closing pretty much at the lows of the day. what do you do? >> i tell you, 210, that is the next level on the chart that you want to watch. you're catching a falling knife at this point. if we get a bounce of 210, then my radar's going to be popped up. get your google glass for one day only. next week. for that $1500 a pop, will people rush to become google glass wearers? ♪
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time now for some unusual activity. watching one name in the energy. >> independent oil and gas, people were aggressively buying the five puts in june. are they trying to set a floor or somebody who is a big holder getting nervous? the stock was down 4.5% today. that's one of the reasons they were nervous. a lot of stocks were holding or marking into the green. so that's a stock to watch. google glass is set to go on sale this tuesday to anyone who wants a pair. but they're only on sale for one day. at the founders conference, there are some interesting things to say about google glass. >> i have google glass. we've been developing it for a while. i think it's simultaneously
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really great and i am powering but also kind of cumbersome. it's in that early fadphase. it's going to be that second and third generation that's going to take over the world. >> whoa. >> he's a self-proclaimed particulary. he thinks it's going to be transformative to his business, even more than the smartphone and pc and laptop has been. >> you need to be buying google because at this point after pulling back almost to the 200, you've got a stock that trades at 25 times and is growing at 25 times percent. >> i think doc's going to get a pair. >> we'll see. >> it would look great with that shirt. >> i'll be watching all of you and taking pictures throughout the show. tweeting. >> all right. we'll see. time for the final trade. >> toyota motors rallied today.
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>> brian kelly. >> i still like glang. >> yahoo. i think you're going to see this thing hiding north soon. >> ibb. you mentioned it. i like this one, mel, for a bounce. i'm not going to be a long-term owner. see you back here tomorrow, not tomorrow -- monday. meantime, don't go anywhere. options action starts right after the break. make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today.
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this is options action. tonight. >> it must be some kind of hot tub time machine. >> people are thinking it's more like 1987. or maybe 2000. first internet stock, then biotech. you won't believe what they say is next to fall. and knocked down but not out. solar stocks have taken a hit, but they're showing signs of
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getting off the mat. the action begins right now. ♪ i'm melissa lee. these are the traders here in times square. the selling on wall street continues for another week. the lousy action in the financial stocks was only half the story. >> that's right. the xlf, that's the etf closed down more than 1% today. but the activity was of extremely bearish. in today's trades, the biggest one someone actually bought 30,000 of the april 21.5 puts. that's nearly a $1 million bet that it would get even worse for these financials before next friday's expirations. next week we're getting earnings from the likes of citigroup,
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bank of america. next week very heavy in reporting season. could there be more pain for the banks? that's going to be the real key. >> how worried should we be as we head into another big week for earnings, and specifically bank earnings. dan has been bearish at large. it seems like j.p. morgan really delivered. >> we did a trade i think a month ago. to me, what i was looking at at the time, the company had really guided down. they talked down earnings back in mid february and frankly, i'm actually very surprised that investors were surprised today by the disappointing quarter. you know, the down 3.6%. it was the worst decline after earnings in two years for this company. this is a company that has routinely beat. i don't think the sky is falling here. these are cheap stocks. but one thing that is very important is that this is going to be a very tough year. there was a lot of cost cutting,
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a lot of stuff that manufactured earnings that got these stocks where they are. >> it's an underperformer anyway against its peers. >> even if you take a look at wells fargo it's a little bit of a joke when you consider that j.p. morgan had a lot of instances. they included a lot of one-time positives. they had big gains on their equity portfolio. they had a lot of things going on that obviously is helpful. a lot of people talk about well, net interest margins normalize. they talk about a cushing of benefits. it compresses mortgage demand. we can see right now when we take a look at all of these banks they're actually telling us that's a big part of the problem. >> the problem were j.p. morgan, if you are going to lower expectations then you better meet or beat them. and when you miss the lowered expect tapgss you're going to get crushed. higher rates need to help the
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banks, and god knows the banks need some help. we've been saying that for a long time, months and months and months. if you look at ten-year treasury yields it's not going to help the banks. >> i would make one point about that xlf trade. that is not a graeat proxy. i think this trader was mostly looking at the dollar cheap premium. >> why isn't it a good proxy? >> hathaway was the second largest. there are aum can others in there that are not reporting in the time period of this expiration. sometimes on days like today traders scramble to lower their delta exposure. they go in there, the risk manger taps them on the shoulder, what's the cheapest premium i'm willing to lose. and that could be what was going on there. >> the interesting thing about this trade is, is they are almost there right now. this is not a bet that the stock market is going to drop a ton.
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it's a bet that the xlf is going to drop an a little bit more. >> call to the charts. the one and only carter braxton. what do you see? >> there's a lot going on. but this is the second biggest sector in the s&p after technology. it's held up, but it's not holding up as of now going forward from what we can see. here is the best part. this is the regional bank index. as you can see, it is still on trend, all be it it closed right at the trend line. let me take a look at others that have given way. this is the bkx index. as you see here, as from the regional banks, it's the trend once. and then today it's a
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definitively longer trade. morgan stanley, we think it's got more to go. for comparison purposes, take a look at the same chart of morgan stanley versus goldman sachs. goldman sachs we believe is leading the way. back to morgan stanley chart. we broke trend today, earlier this week. it closed at 28.50. we would think it's heading up. >> it's trading at less than one time standard book value. obviously they're weaker compared to goldman sachs. i don't sigh a lot of growth for them in the immediate horizon.
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options are relatively cheap compared to how much the stock has been moving around. i'm going to look to put on a trade that will caption that earning. i'm just going to put on the 28.25. you can spend about 90 cents to put on that trade. you're not risking a great deal of money. when you take a look at what the market's doing now, it's easy to imagine this thing could move. >> what happens to this trade? do you need to believe that the market will go lower? >> when you look at what this stock has done in the last two weeks alone it was almost going to make a 52-week high. into that week, i closed them today. you don't like to press things on lows, and you could be doing that here. i think you could sigh 26 over the next month or two. the activity is really, really bad right now. i can see if from where i am. yes, there are a lot of deals on the calendar that are smaller. >> i just pointed out that the
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options are not that expensive. this is actually going to come in a lot less if the stock moves up ha dollar. especially if that happens next week. otherwise, if the stock was basically at all-time highs, you would probably look to spread it. here we have to spread it. >> carter has a target, target's 25 bucks. reduces the cost of the whole thing, also reduces the penalty from that vol crush that we talk about once earnings are released. this is a case where doing a put spread makes a lot more sense than just doing a put. let's go on to a question that every investor must be asking. what will be the next to fall? what is the next one, dan? what do you say? >> to me it doesn't have a whole heck of a lot to do with that sexy technology stuff or biotech. look, the world is convinced or at least the fed is convinced in the investor world that the
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economy in the u.s. is improving. i'm not so certain about that. i'd rather be a bit skeptical based pop the priupon the prici we've seep. i'd like to look at sectors like the transport. when you look at the iyt, when it broke out of $100 in early 2013, it went up 40%. you would have thought this thing was a social media company last year. it's not, okay. so when i look at the iyt, we have the big transports, about the top five holdings in that etv make up about 50% of the weight. i think it just recently made a new all-time high. this is a sector where i think if we get mildly poor economic data, this is the next sector to drop. >> do you agree? >> what's interesting is that fed ex and ups, these are valued basically on recovering economic growth story. these things are not
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overwhelmingly chiep. if you're dealing with a stock that you think is going to flatten out, there's probably more risk in the down side. >> energy is a huge component of their cost, and we saw that crude oil was up a ton. it's been up a ton recently. rolled over a little bit today. but middle of the day today, crude oil maid a new high. and that's really going to impact margins for these names. >> when the ecf was 132.35, i bought those, i paid $1.20 for that. i sold one of the may 125 puts at 85 cents. that cost me $1.20. i can make up to $3.80. that's worth my money. i targeted these because 1.30 is a really nice break down level. the 200 day average was also a
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prior breakout level. the ecf, the implied volatility is really kind of cheap, going out of the money a little bit, but i like the potential. >> the great point about the fact that the options are cheap, when the market starts to prol over anchorlation rises, that's when you're really getting them at a bargain price. >> these options are vanishing you have to be really careful. >> you believe the market's going to go down too? >> transports have held up better than most. in this case it's a specific thing, and what's kept it up is the big airlines. i would watch the airlines and use that as a sort of an indicator for the group. before we head to break here. we have a little news of interest. of of of nearly $67 million.
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pays to be a media mogul these days. we'll take a look at a bullish trade on twitter. you'll find great trader blogs and educational materials. so you'll want to check it out. here's what's coming up next. >> what do these three men have in common? >> i think they're vain. plus after a terrible p week, could now be the time to buy solar stock? a little known indicator says yes. and we'll let you now what it is when options action returns. ♪ ♪ [ tires screech ] chewley's finds itself in a sticky situation today after recalling its new gum. [ male announcer ] stick it to the market before you get stuck.
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a'87 type of crash. i suspect it will be even worse. >> i think it's not if, it's when. i think there will be a major correction. i can't tell you when. it may be three years. it may be three days. but that's my belief. >> two legendary investors and two men with very thick accents. making very bearish comments yesterday. we got three wise men sounding the alarm here. what do you think? >> well, for one thing, haven't we also been sounding the alarm? i think we have, but i think it's sounding a little bit shrill. it does make some sense. equity market valuations is a percentage of the overall
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economy are really approaching highs at this point. valuations, while not overwhelmingly expensive across the board, are a bit above average. but there are a couple names where they're off the charts. you have a lot of speculative names. people talk about 3d printing and tesla and netflix. it's hard to get your arms around these things. if they roll over, they're going to take the market with it. >> i was comparing the market to '87. are there similarities in these charts? they are sent around the floors when there's a big pull back and we see it time and time again. here it is again. >> every top has a different characteristic, but they all have one thing in common. they happen after great times of strength. for what it's worth, there have only been six other instances in history where the s&p has gone five years in a row
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consecutively closing higher. and we just saw that at the end of 2013. and i spent some time looking at what happens in the ensuing year. and some go up. some go down. here's what happens every time after a five-year consecutive run. volatility increases dramatically, and we are seeing that this year. and the draw down from the ensuing year is almost double what you'll see in any given year. i think you kpr expect that kind of behavior in 2014. >> given that overall outlook, do you think it's going to be worse for the qs? >> there are big, big names that people are hiding out in right now, google and apple and some of the like. if you own these things, you're not going to sell them. but you may be worried about those crash calls. i don't think you go in monday morning and start buying puts. i was looking out on the qs because this is the one i think could be really vulnerable.
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it's down 8% from the highs. did not confirm the s&p high. s&p's down 4%. and again, hypothetically, i think you want to do this probably back towards '86. but today i priced it out. when the qs were 84.15, you could buy the july spread for about $1.50. you can get protection or get bearish exposure which could be that period of time. you look at that chart. it's right at the break down level. i think you want to spend as little as possible to get the widest amount of protection on something like this. you're doing this on something you own for the most part. >> i'm just not certain this is where i would go if i were a big bear. the three big names which are apple, microsoft and google are not particularly expensive. if you go a little further down you get some hideously expensive names like amazon. i would look where the names are a little frothier and a little
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more overextended. >> those big names that you mentioned, the amazons of the world don't have a lot of upside. their big story is over. microsoft is not going to go down -- >> it just went from 30 to 40. i think there's a lot of risk in those names. we've seen this rotation out of the high growth, if we go to hell in a handbasket, these are going to get hit. apple has flat lined above 500 for weeks or months now. before the iphone 6 comes out, you could see it down. shares in solar city have gotten crushed, but it is a ray of sunshine around the corner? ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor...
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it's called getting called out. we take a look at a trade that looked so good but went so wrong. a couple months ago mike decided to get into solar city. this is what happened next. >> just because we risk less doesn't mean we make more. that's when they found out when they bet on solar city. >> this is a great time to buy the stock. we like it a lot. >> and mike was picking up what carter was putting down. but just buying the stock, it set them back over $6,000. but to make a bullish bet they said sold. now to keep all that money, shares stay above the $60 price through expiration. now mike is obligated to buy the stock for $60, no matter how far they fall.
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so to finance the risk, they bought the $4 stock but he did something else. he put the odds in his favor and here's how. between the $5 he collected by selling one put and the $4 he spent on the other put, he has a credit of a dollar. by taking in that dollar mike can now make money whether the solar city goes up, down, or nowhere below. even if it drops below $60 he doesn't see losses until the -- mike has protected himself below that level. good thing he did, solar city's stocks have fallen and at this point is a loser. now fans all around the globe are asking the same thing. >> how many earths do you think would fit inside the sun? >> actually, bill nye, what
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they're asking is this, what will mike and carter do now? >> carter, you got us in. so what do you do now? >> we're going to stick this one out. a big decline. 40%. we still think the rebound potential is high. stay long. >> rebound potential's high, what do you think, mike? >> this is a situation where our options trade which worked against us now is set up to where it has more leverage to the upside. the spreads are a little bit wide. i think you basically have five to one leverage if you hang time. so i think you have to stay with it. >> forget about the trade. what do you think is going to happen to the stock near term. these are stocks that have gotten massively -- >> they deserve to. we've been talking about high-flying names. how many of us have man crushes on ely musk? >> i guess you do. >> once you start losing 10%,
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20%, 30%, 40%, it goes away. i think a better entry for this stock would be $40. coming up next, the time call. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ tires screech ] chewley's finds itself in a sticky situation today after recalling its new gum. [ male announcer ] stick it to the market before you get stuck. get the most extensive charting wherever you are with the mobile trader app from td ameritrade.
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♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ coming up on mad money tonight, up in smoke. they talk to a private e-cigarette maker to see what it could mean for the industry. meantime, time for the final call. carter? >> after a weakness in biotech and tech and high-flying casino names. watch financials. if they start going lower, it's going to get a lot worse. >> options are the only tool to try to take bottom. 9 web extra is how to do it sensibly in twitter. >> transports. keep an eye on that. if you see those breaking, you know you're in trouble. >> this is one of those situations where if is tempting
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to run out and buy puts. if you are going to make bearish bets, this is probably the best way to do it. use things like the put spread we're talking about in morgan stanley. looks like airtime has expired. for more you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors, i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to bad money. i'm just glad this week is over. my job is to educate and teach you, explain this stuff. call or tweet me. be nice or i'll block you. tumultous,
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