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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 17, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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boston, the marathon the first one since the tragedy one year ago. we'll have coverage on that and talk about things affecting you in other ways. >> markets are closed tomorrow. you won't see us here. thanks for joining us today. that does it for closing bell. the markets are closed tomorrow for good friday. we'll see you monday. "fast money" is next. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market sight in new york city's bright lights of times square with cnbc's melissa lee. the traders tonight are tim, the ambassador seymour. dan nathan.
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brian bk kelly. and guy, the negotiator. >> that is cnbc's jim. what a voice he has to help us celebrate cnbc's 25th anniversary. we finished strong with the dow and s&p 500 seeing their best week of the year. it was earnings that dominated that volatility. hits and misses from some of the streets biggest names. what have those reports told us so far? we have got the big misses. where do we stand right now, guy? >> each company is different. i don't think the earnings told us anything yet. the reversal on the bond market was interesting. had the early rally looking like
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it wanted to continue higher. stopped on a dime and closed down almost $1.20. i thought that was interesting. the s&p we talked about the potential for outside month to the down side. you also have a potential outside month to the up side. >> a week ago we sat here thinking the music had stopped. what's going to happen next? momentum names are in the toilet. now what? >> listen, i'm not convinced it's completely turned. i think you need to remain nimble. you'll see tlt tends to move about an hour or so the spy. that's what you need to watch in the market. this big rotation and macro trade and i don't know if this is a sustainable rally yet.
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>> there's general electric, intel, there's wells fargo. what does that tell me, tim? >> if you look at the industrials, it tells you rotation out of the high multiple tech names into some of the names taking part in what i think this week was all about macro data in the u.s. and not so bad data out of china. i think the macro -- i think the market itself which last week not everybody on this desk was -- what we have seen is rotation in this market for two months. look at how these guys are priced to continue to rally with the market. but at operational leverage to an economy that will grow. >> to me, you look at some of the financials, and their trading within the range and stably. when the skull was fallen they acted decently. i'm not as fancy as guy on the other side of the desk over here, mr. bk. >> that is for sure. >> that is for sure.
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>> bonds and the -- i'll tell you chipotle today, they had a better than expected -- i'm looking at the burrito here. >> proprietary? >> yeah. that stock reversed 11% from the highs this morning. about $11.5 billion reversal. this is down 16% but still up 120% from q-4 2012. i think they're showing how much risk they're willing to take. >> look at mcdonald's. mcdonald's trades at 18 times where cmg trades double that. it tells you what you're going to get. >> i would be worried about mcdonald's. chipotle says they're going to
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raise their meat prices. i don't think mcdonald's has the ability to raise their prices like chipotle does. >> by the way, are not really all about north america's sales. i think mcdonald's is less than it is in top buying growth. brian is talking about commodity input costs. that is something that should worry some economies that have had no inflation. but very good for industrial names. these why this rally is happening there. >> let's broaden this. we're sitting here on the cusp of a three-day weekend. yesterday we had big miss from ibm, google. it was weighing on the qs in last night's session. >> i thought google was a tad disappointing. i agreed with tim last night. ibm was a big miss i thought. to me it's ibm specific. we said it all along. they have had issues to take a
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few quart toeers to get around. >> google has also missed three or four times. >> google, look at their growth and valuation, it's reasonable and not expensive stock. i agree that the numbers are hmm coming todown. the growth is still there in my opinion. >> and where at some point it was great. right now brian brought up a good point, their earnings. a lot of people think they have been doing it with smoking mirrors. if you look at china, it's been a huge wind for these guys they haven't answered. that's when you're going to get a sense whether they're going to be able to stick to that target. >> some have performed quite well. join us now with the sector that could see more up side, carter over at the smart board. carter, let's start off with the broader markets here. have we turned the corner in terms of the selloff? >> we would say no.
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there's been a sector quite good. let's try to figure it out together. here is where a lot of the damage has been sustained. this is the q-q-q. representing big technology shares. we have a selloff in june. 7%. we have a selloff in october, again 5 or 6. this selloff is 9. it's not only broken trend but left a lot of people above trapped. so the damage sustained here is not going to be easily reversed. that's a problem. look at another area of the market where it's more troubling. the same well defined trend line. the same perfect bounces in june and october. in this case, the biotech group down 25%. the problem with big hits is it leaves a lot of people trapped above who become interested sellers as this recovers. by contradistinction take a look at energy. just as these both topped
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exactly march 3rd, exactly march 3rd. energy bottoms. these the rotation going on. and it looks like it's got more to go. well defined channel. we think we're going to continue to throw to the top of the channel implying 10% move. just to put that in perspective, look at this. this is the long term chart of the energy sector. we are just now contending with -- today we exceeded the '07 highs. most sectors are above that. consumer discretion, tape stapl. this sector is toying with the top. the presumption is the beakout on the way has legs. we do not like things like biotech and the q-q-q. >> i want to home in on the area of contradistinction to the bioteches. energy. potentially at 10%.
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>> i think so. i would rath be in the natural gas space. natural gas had an excellent day today. we are putting less natural gas in the ground than we did this time last year than what people are expecting. if you get a warmer summer, you're going to have some issues. i would stay on the gassy side as opposed to the oily side. >> if you trade out of technology into energy, you have been a hero. you have structural change going on. this is a name that can continue to rally. >> coming up next from alibaba to weibo. what might be the next chinese internet ipo slated to rock u.s. markets? and could next week's key earnings report finally be the time when a tech tighten looks to break out next. [ hypnotist ] you are feeling satisfied
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. now i know this song is on guy's walkman. >> oh, man. >> and it's on tim's mix tape. the reason we're playing this
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song is because these songs were popular 25 years ago. getting back to business. morgan stanley meets earnings and revenue expectations as the profits rise. talking about what was behind the strong quarter. take a listen. >> i think you'll have more variability in commodities and fixed income than any of the other business lines we have. what's interesting about the business mix here is over 80% is institutional equities. wealth management and is most volatile part of the firm is now a small part of the firm. >> that on top of the fact that its investment banking seems to have increased which is in contrast to what goldman sachs said. >> they have differentiated themselves and ahead of the curve. they're making money on the fee based businesses.
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they're investment management and doing great. that's what goldman sachs is probably lacking right now. depending how you want to look at it, it trades about the same as goldman sachs. but in the world we live in today, it's probably a better business model right now. >> than gold man. >> in this world today. >> why over goldman sachs? >> because gold, blue, whatever color. goldman brown. >> volatility has died down, why wouldn't you want to be in a goldman? >> right now. >> they're building the lever up to the economy not so good. >> next up, apple. >> let's get to cnbc's josh on this. josh. >> apple reports earnings next wednesday and there might be a big surprise for investors.
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tony, the analyst who covers apple estimates that apple has about 10 billion left in its current buy-back program. he thinks apple next week will add 30 billion to that program. apple stock could use a boost. it's been stuck in a trading range between about 525 and 550. peter of jeffreys agrees that apple should buy back more stock. sitting on nearly $160 billion cash pileup. telling me that is an obscene amount of money the company should be returning to its owners. urging apple to repurchase more shares. carl icahn. he finally waving the white flag in february to convince apple to buy back additional 50 billion of its stock. not every analyst thinks a buy back makes sense.
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apple bulls are looking for a catalyst to move shares higher, whether that's a new product or service or both. or bigger buy back could have an impact in the near term. melissa, back to you. >> just quickly in the options market, sometimes there are clues as to whether or not a company is going to initiate. >> the fact they didn't announce it or people are speculating they're going to do it on the report next week could be to offset a disappointing quarter. in the last two years after the february meeting they initiated their capital return plans in march or april. >> next up, general electric shares jumping today despite a drop in profits. >> they are in a long term cycle. this is a company thinking five to ten years down the road. in the short run, the aviation business was a drag. i think if people look at ge's
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core businesses, the higher margin businesses are things they have made a lot of investments in. >> it sounds like he's rolling up his sleeves when it comes to the diversity of the portfolio. willing to look at larger acquisitions. >> they're trying to become more like honeywell. honeywell has crushed it in terms of the stock. as they get away from ge capital, all though they did well, i think the stock will catch up. my view. >> attack of the chinese internet stocks. could set the rest of the space on fire. our own dan nathan is getting in on the action. take a look at this stock. solar, to outperform today. what is behind the call? we have got the analyst in two.
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. andy reporting earnings moments ago. let's get to the news rom. birtha. >> chip makers two cents a share in the bottom line as it tries to replace dwindling chips for gaming. $1.4 billion. they're getting a nice pop on the back of those results. back to you. >> 6% not bad. bk you had been -- >> sold it. after this report, i'll take another look at it. i think they're turning their business around. they have got bitcoin which is a bite up my alley.
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>> this is yahoo's results earlier this week. numbers out of alibaba. but is there another chinese internet about to them thall to shame? we're taking a look at jd.com. i don't know if american viewers are familiar with it. it's like an amazon model. and you say pass on this. why? >> yeah. i think similar to weibo, two situation are going on. first, they're clearly focused on revenue growth and not profit. i don't think it's optimal for them to come before the big alibaba deal. what we saw with yahoo's numbers and the alibaba performance was they had a terrific quarter near 50%. that's superior. if you look at jd.com, i think
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if their prospectus they just turned a profit. profit growth is going to be a key concern and valuation on how do you value jd.com. there's a key question. >> let's back into weibo, that is one that you actually pass on. as you said the priorities for the company, growing users first and turning up profit. when you take a look at the trade, it opened lower, below the offer price and then throughout the session, it climbed. i'm curious what your take on that action is. it looked from the outside perspective that bankers said to their clients support this because we have got alibaba, you want a piece of that one, you support this one. >> yeah. i think a lot of people are understanding how big and how great alibaba can become. i think they're trying to do what they can to get friendly with their bankers. i think they do have significant assets in terms of mobile traffic. when you think about it, alibaba
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had a stake at 15%. they talked about increasing their stake to 30% and increased a bit more than 30% to right around 31%. so i do think there could be some that are catching wind of this and saying there could be an outside chance at some point that alibaba buys the remainder of weibo. the key questions becomes when? >> but you would be a buyer of alibaba when it comes public? you're not doing i'm buying yahoo in order to get alibaba? you want that at the offer? >> i think that's the way to play it. i think the valuation seems that alibaba is going to come in the market around 25 to 26 times. i think the key risk with stuff like facebook and ten cent is they risk their social properties. alibaba is you're playing on the
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coattails of what's going to be the world's largest consumer market and as long as you believe the chinese are going to continue to make more money and spend, alibaba is the way to go. >> thanks. tim, let's go to you. >> what's interesting about weibo is people have been concerned about we-chat. i think this was part of what people got concerned about over the last six months. i think people got distort dn was you go through the per peck does of ipo and find a lot of things scarry. including the chinese government could -- first of all, they're going to throw everything in the kitchen sink in there and a lot of people got concerned by these numbers. if you look at the guy owning 54% of the company and weibo is now at 4.1 after today. alibaba, i feel like they greased the rails on this ipo to
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make sure the alibaba deal comes in is a smart thing to do. >> i think there's a risk long term and excitement about some of these chinese stocks going public here. i think once the excitement is gone, i think they're going to sell out. some of these guys may think this is piky. >> piky. >> piky. stock is down from 14 in 2011 to 333 where i bought it yesterday. maybe all this stuff starts to rally a bit. i'm going to keep a very short leash on this one. >> after the break, whip out your tub of popcorn. tim and dan will battle it out over the fundamentals of netflix. who will come out on top? a street fight. plus, the entire "fast money" gang is known as some quirky sayings. we'll bring you our top five
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later on. guy adami has got something to do with it. stay tuned. it is a very special day for "fast money." what better way to release some stress than to throw a punch. >> ready to go? >> ready to go. let's rock and roll. >> i don't want you to get hit by a car. >> is the -- i can't say it. >> in china -- sorry. >> the atlantic salmon pizza. >> this is you. >> that is me. >> excuse me. i'm surfing the web. >> what has come to lovingly be known as a kung-pow mobile. >> i don't know what i would do
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p . welcome back to "fast money." live at the nasdaq market site. here's tv's own melissa lee. and the entire "fast money" gang. >> i think we should have bert around all the time and we can play "bust a move" all the time. >> can you name this singer? >> young mc. >> young mc. >> yes. >> thank you. >> young mc. >> despite the recent pull back solar city getting a lift to outperform from neutral. the analyst joins us from san francisco. great to see you. >> happy anniversary. wish i could be there to celebrate. >> thank you.
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since then the stock pulled back by about 30%. that was a great call in materials of missing the market that took these momentum stocks down. has anything fundamentally changed aside from that pullback? >> i think a couple things. solar city is the fastest growing market. which could grow as fast as 50% year over year. we want to be involved in that. the valuation helps for us to step in and upgrade the stock. >> ben, people act like no one else is in the space. so they give solar city the bid for the only way you can play this growth. i think that's a narrow focus. give us sense of other people on the radar screen or what do you think about the competitive landscape. >> sure. it definitely is condensing to a few different players. sun power is one to play it. there are only a few players
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because of the tax equity and the financing needed to drive this market. it's around a few of the players like a solar city and sun power. >> you got a bluesky valuation on solar city of $128. how much do we need the market to cooperate in order for us to see a turn around in solar city? this is caught in towards high-flying stocks. >> really the reason for that blue sky valuation we did today was because that we can actually now see out past the expiration of some of the tax credits that drive this market. this market is not going away. there's a lot of momentum. solar city and others continue to drive down costs. that allowed us to go out and do the blue sky valuation. i have to go with one risk looking out five years. we want to pay attention to the interest rates because that does affect the overall market. >> can you speak to the housing
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play. it looks like they're giving away the solar units. they'll install for free. do they want to become a utility at some point down the line? is that the end game here? >> they're definitely a thorn in the side of the utilities. that's on the top three problems that utilities are facing right now because of solar city or sun power is coming and swooping up their best clients. the clients with the biggest electricity billings. that's what you hear about all this fighting going on state by state. which in the biggest states, california and arizona. for now it's been put to rest. we have got visibility on the market growth there. >> you have been great in terms of the trading perspective on a lot of these stocks. let's take a look at tesla been trading not well recently. is this a buying opportunity or do you wait until the dust settles? >> i am cautious going into the quarter. i still think that this is a
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very long term buy. there are some whispered numbers on deliveries that sets us up like we were in q-3 where the numbers came in above guidance but didn't meet the whispered numbers. with the market shaky like this, i'm cautious. i think it's going to be a boring quarter as far as news goes. we had the model x that will be shown and more on the gig ga facto factory. >> great to see you. bk offhad been a holder of tesla and sold it. >> i did. >> would you buy and would there be some catalyst. >> for me i would wait for earnings before i buy it. as long as that holds you can trade it technically. >> some lar, guy adami. >> solar city is -- you know, the last quarter was lousy. ben has been spot on in the whole space. but the selloff looks like the
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last quarter was a lousy. i think solar city might be interesting for a trade right here. >> netflix shares jump in. a $500 price target ahead of the earnings. dan nathan is the bull. tim seymour is the bear. 90 seconds on the clock. dan, kick it off. >> don't fall off your chairs yet. i think tim is right on this one. >> what? >> i think the stock is much lower a year from now but the setup on monday night is a treacherous one. the stock has moved on average about 14% over the last four quarters. 18% over the last eight quarters. here's the thick. sendment is really bad. i think that better than expected numbers, expectations are low. you see a pop back up to 400 but then i think you sell it. if you're going to do it, you do
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it with defined risk. possibly a call spread. i think this is the beginning of the end. just like chipotle, i think investors are going to use them in these high valuation names to sell them. >> so you're in the -- >> i won the street fight. >> really -- >> i think dan's caution is fair. when you look at the valuation of 30 times 2014, this is a stock trading two times the sector at a time when the entire sector multiple is going down. it's not me going after netflix. the entire sector is suffering. everybody wants netflix to grow internationally. amazon has got a business in the uk growing step for step for these guys. the players already there, not that difficult. the issue is people -- i think we have guidance that the first quarter will be okay. around $4 million. i think the second quarter
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guidance when they analyze all the success they have. second quarter, very tough. any negative news out of these guys i'm out. >> and you -- >> this is a trading show. means what? >> trading. >> they aredy ve die ververgent use when it comes to short terms. >> dan is the bull. >> you said he was going to be right. >> why don't you pay attention. >> pay attention. >> get in the game. >> that's from that -- what's that show, the kids show from disney, "get in the game". >> i don't know. >> netflix. >> you know what, when netflix was at 450 i understand the company and why people liked it.
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it went straight down from there. it seems like there's cost pressures they're going to have. to take the reverse bk indicator with dan i think it pops. >> wow. indicator. who do you thought won the street fight. #bull for dan and #bear for tim. we'll have the results at the end of the show. time now for big movers of the day. handing it over to jim. jim. actually we're not going to hand it over to jim. i'm going to do it. >> why don't you imitate him. >> barnes and noble down 12%. guy. >> awesome. i mean first you had liberty media getting rid of their stake and the chairman, part of his stake. charge admission. all those people walking in with their name tags on. let them buy their starbucks.
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you'll make a lot more money. >> drop for schlumberger. >> you have got a company with record profits. the guidance wasn't great. this is a wonderful time to be a focused technology based oil services firm. these guys are the best. international is where they're going. the world is trying hard to pull oil. i would stay in this name but i don't think you need to chase it tomorrow. >> gogo pop moved 6%. >> we all like wi-fi on planes. these guys have a lot of competition. to me, you get a stock like this that's down 50% from the all time highs last year. maybe in the low teens, that's where you buy it. >> sandisk. >> i like this name. can't trade it tomorrow because it's good friday. if you want to have a happy monday, you wait. it's moved too far too fast.
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>> keep this. a pop for peeps donuts. this spring dunn kin donuts partnered. their adored with pink and yellow peeps that resemble baby chicks. if you got a sweet tooth move fast before they fly the coupe. we fortunately have these on the set. i just want the peeps because i want to bite the heads off. >> i'll take a yellow one. dan, you probably want a pink one. >> obviously. >> here. >> i had one early. >> who saying "sugar sugar"? >> the archies. >> still ahead, cnbc 25 anniversary celebration with a look back at what our traders have been up to. plus options radar. and braking that down after this
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. time or no time for this? >> first of all, longer than 25 years ago. categorically telling you. >> popular 25 years ago. it's not they came out popular 25 years ago. >> what town were the b-52s from? >> athens, georgia. >> single best performing sector today. dan has been taking a look at a bet of one energy stock in particular. dan. >> today there was one options trader making a bullish bet. calls outnumbered puts, 7-1 today. more than 4.5 times average daily volume. one big trade caught my eye. today was april expiration where traders sold 8,500 and rolled
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out that view and bought 17,000 of the august 105 calls. the break-even is up 10%. when you go to the chart, look at this triangle or wedge or whatever carter would call it here. that thing looks like a coiled spring and ready to go here. earnings are on may 5th. 1.5% on average. that is what the marked is implying. look at the next chart. this is at the money -- the price of options over the last three years. upper left. bottom right. it looks cheap. i think that's what that options trader was thinking today. >> more options action next friday since tomorrow is good friday and we're all off. check out options action cnbc.com. and in honor of cnbc's 25th anniversary here are the top five best brought to you by the voice of cnbc jim. >> thanks.
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without further adieu, here they are. number five, spider monky. number four, yea sure. number three, #jerks. number two, ridonculeus and number one, if ur twerken you're not working. >> he says it. that could be the fun book. >> silky shoo y smith. >> still ahead. some of the moments on "fast money." complete with a special toast. plus the one stock betting on for the next 25 years. more "fast" straight ahead. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats.
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at a special site for tv viewers; from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square this is "fast money." i am melissa lee. these are the "fast money" traders. >> 5:00 i'm home and watching.
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guy adami and beautiful karen. i'm with all of you. >> the ad vent of the spray tan and this booth can turn you into a bronze god or godess. >> guy adami is the manager of the masses. >> you're either stupid or dumb. i don't know. it's a terrible excuse. >> putin and bush have their first get together of the year and last year there was a left tackle of warm, fuzzy -- >> he just ran behind me. as if this is the first time you're on tv, dan. >> there's no doubt tv teaches about football. and when to be aggressive and not to be aggressive and the market is like that. >> tim, going to disney world. >> again, so much to choose from
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there. crazy. >> yeah. >> good time. good time. >> that's a lot of years we logged. >> both of you in '04. you looked like -- you didn't look like you. >> no. i don't think that was me. >> the tanning booth, you definitely did not look like you. >> that's awful. take that down. take that down. >> that is awful. what do you want me to lie is. >> #jerk. all right. >> like a spider monkey. let's go to a toast to cnbc's 25th year on the air. joining us with 25-year-old whiskey. >> this has been maturing in oakwood for at least 25 years. when we look at whiskeys like this, less than 1% reaches the age of 20 years and above. it's a big, smokey whiskey.
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notoriously known for being smokey and a freight train of smoke and crushed apple juice. >> freight train of smoke. >> and fresh apple which sounds delightful. i look at that label and think ben riach. >> it's kind of in the back of the throat but after a couple whiskeys it becomes a lot easier to pronounce. >> we hope of course cnbc will be around in the next 25 years. >> we hope? we will be around. >> we will. that's right. are there whiskeys that reach that age? >> absolutely. there's a lot of -- 25, 30, 40 and 50 and 60 years old and up. and has become a demand for very collectible whiskey. i think they're really scratching the surface.
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this is unknown in the u.s. i love it for that reason. something different. it's not one of the big brands. we are really proud to carry it and talk about it and share it with you guys. >> turned radar whiskey. guy, can you say that name. >> ben -- what are you laughing at? that was right. >> very good. cheers guys. >> cheers. >> coming off the wagon right on tv here. >> perfect. next hour on "mad money," cramer is hammering in on the american economy ceo. coming up a special edition of our final trade. traders will tell you the name you need to own for the next 25 years. plus, results of the street fight. who won? final trade after this break. ♪
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[ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ she can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪
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time for the results of our street fight. it was a bloody one. on netflix with dan and tim. the winner is tim seymour. >> good job.
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>> tim seymour. although it was a heavy assist from dan because he agreed with tim in the end which was kind of lame. >> no, it's not. into the report on monday night. >> all right. what do or kl microsoft and charles swab have in common? cnbc's first broad cast 25 years ago your investment would be up 10,000%. giving you the top stocks to own for the next 25 years. how fast are you? tim seymour, what do you say? >> not 10,000%. these guys are involved in water. purification. their a step or two ahead of their piereers. modeled after their overall return profile.
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i think it's going to improve. i think the profitability of some of these high-margin service business is what's going to drive a better valuation. feel comfortable with management. i would stay long in this name. >> i don't like any names that have been around 100 years. amazon, they're going to have $90 billion in sales this year. when you look at walmart, $500 billion in sales this year. i think amazon is going to imbed themselves in our lives. they're going to figure out a way to become profitable with those sorts of sales. i don't see too many companies going to go to $100 billion in sales to $500 billion any time soon. >> beakers. >> 25 years ago if you bought the internet. >> or the enterweb. >> you would be very, very happy today. 25 years from now what do you buy today to be happy? bitcoin. >> i didn't know where you were
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going with that. >> i'll be 93 in 25 years. >> that's it? >> many of the same reasons that tim mentioned. i think honeywell does it better. all the reasons tim mentioned. 25 years, hon. >> i'm now. happy anniversary cnbc. cheers to another 25. [ applause ] my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise oh to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. a lot of people want to make friends. trying to make you money. my job is to entertain, eblg indicate and teach you. call me. or tweet me @jimcramer. some dips are made to be bought. you just hav

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