for everyone. that's the power the power, that's the power of today. cleveland clinic. call today, for an appointment today. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth at the new york stock exchange today. >> i'm michelle ka brucalifornie so cabrera in for kelly evans. landmark case is heading to the supreme court tomorrow. they're arguing it can sell devices to people that allow them to bypass the cable companies and their fees when watching broadcast television. we're going to lay out what's at stake and experts will handicap how the decision will go. >> they're saying this is nothing less than challenging the business model of the traditional broadcast television

networks. >> that would be terrible. that would threaten us, right? >> no, we're a cable channel. >> i know, we're part -- >> we're part of a broadcast network, so, yeah, very important. we'll get to that. no, it's not your imagination. gasoline prices are higher. in fact, a lot higher the last few weeks. what's the reason behind the recent surge, and how much higher do we go? we'll have a special report and why everybody's pain at the pump is on the rise. netflix is set to report what is being viewed as a crucial earnings report. the stock has been hit hard over the last month or two, falling very sharply, when it was trading well above $400 a share. the latest numbers, sending it to new highs? we'll have the information first, along with the best analysis on the street. in the meantime, let's show you how the markets have been trading. narrow day. european markets closed, closed the monday after easter. >> they do a four-day weekend. >> why don't we do that? >> that's a great idea. let's campaign for that.

>> we practically did. 43 points now. a very narrowly traded day. we're at 16,452 on the dow. the nasdaq actually a decent gain of 24 points, about .5%, as the march to 5,000 continues and the s&p 500 index is up 6 1/2 points now. now trading at 1,871. let's bring in our panel today, to talk about it in our "closing bell" exchange with aaron gibbs from sp capital iq, anthony chan from chase, tim from paradis asset management. is that correct? >> paradis. >> and richard bernstein from richard bernstein advisors. good to see you all. erin gibbs, a very busy week for earnings. what was it, 150 major corporations announcing this week, right? >> that's right. we've only got about 80, 85 companies reported so far, so this is the main week where we'll see the beats and misses. >> so far, lackluster results so far, right?

>> yeah, we've -- this is odd that we're two weeks into the earnings season and we've actually come down in estimates. we started off the season at basically flat, at zero. and right now, the s&p 500 q1 growth is at negative 1.1. so it's very unusual that already about, you know, 20% of the s&p 500 is recorded and we're headed downwards. it's not looking good. >> that's so interesting, rich, because the s&p 500 is on pace for the first five-day winning streak in six months. correction? what correction? it seems to be gone. is earnings season going to underpin this market, or no? >> michelle, add something else to that, as well. many people have pointed out that value stocks are outperforming growth stocks. historically, value outperforms growth in expectations of earnings getting stronger. as the profit cycle heads up, value tends to outperform growth. so here we are in this lackluster earnings season, as you pointed out, but yet value's

outperforming growth which says the market is beginning to expect this may be the trough. >> yeah, kenny, we were saying last thursday, art cashin, his guesstimate was, and maybe the momentum sell-off was over. what do you think? >> i don't think so. i think we test it again lower. it doesn't feel like any follow-through. like erin said, if we're looking for numbers to get weaker, how can that justify anyone taking the market higher other than janet yellen saying, don't worry, i'm keeping rates low. >> hasn't that been enough? >> it has, but investors are smarting up to the idea, if she keeps stimulating, what does that say about where the economy is and what the companies will do? how much more can they cut the bottom line? without growing the top-line revenues? that's what we'll see this quarter. >> anthony chin, weigh in here. what are we seeing from earnings season, and what it elle it is us from the economy? >> i agree that the earnings have been disappointing in the first quarter. i don't think anybody would

argue with that. the reason they're so weak is bhaus of weather. today, we got an interesting date pa point that no one is talking about and that's the index of leading economic indicators, really coming in very strong and suggesting that as you go into the second and third and fourth quarter, we're probably going to average about 3% growth. what does that mean? that means revenues will be strong. we all know that companies are masters at cutting costs and helping earnings by squeezing everything out of revenue. but if revenues get stronger because the top-line growth numbers get stronger, that i think is something that the market is starting to press in. >> -- higher revenues. >> tim, weigh in. what do you think of valuations at this point? >> i'm the credit guy on the panel, michelle, so i'm always the sky -- sky's falling. i think what we're seeing is, you know, price of sales, 1.7, 1.6 times, yields that arguably less than 2%. i think you're starting to push the envelope as it relates to this part of the equity side. >> i know you were kidding, tim,

but you being the credit market guy, why is the long end of the yield curve showing lower yields now? is it because you think sky is falling? what's going on there? >> you know what, bill, i think that the reality is -- and we've said this three, four months back -- is that rates are probably headed lower. the reason rates are headed lower is a couple of big animals in the room. one is demographics. another is liability-driven investing. but the issue overall is there was a segment earlier we were watching as it relates to gasoline prices. if you look at energy prices, and we've been pounding the table on this delusion of self-sufficiency, it's 104, it's not 75, it's not going to 75. natural gas is headed towards 5 bucks, going higher. and so, there's a tax coming on the already heavily taxed consumer. so we're not a believer in that.

>> -- the end of the year with looking at about 8% or 9% growth. but right now, we're trading at 16 times. and basically, we're really looking for how we come through on q1. >> do we need one big asterisk for the earnings coming out and, say, attributable to weather? >> part of that, and also last week we were really hit because of the banks. jpmorgan and bank of america misses pushed down the markets for the s&p 500. we really want to see how this week plays out before making too many calls. >> rich bernstein, tell us more about the rotation into value. you talked a lot about what that signifies for a market. is that a bullish or bearish indicator? >> well, i think -- >> or defensive? >> no, i think it's quite bullish. i think people forget if you're an optimist, you invest for value, right? value needs nominal growth. stronger nominal growth. it doesn't really care if it's inflation or real. just needs nominal growth. if you're defensive, then you buy growth stocks, because growth stocks become very kind of darwinistic, if you will, as

the cycle deagain -- deterior e deteriorates, it becomes survival of the fittest, which is usually growth stocks. >> what will you see this last hour here? or do we just take this day for granted because the european markets were closed the? >> i don't think you'll see anything significant this last hour at all, right, because the volumes are very, very low. and earnings are really going to start after the ball, and then for the rest of the week. i think you have to pay attention to not only the microdata, meaning the company earnings, but macrodata, and the flash pmi, still below 50? what will it mean? what are investors going to do? i think there's some volatility ahead and i think we'll test lower once more before we end up making a move higher towards the second half of the year. >> what if we don't? what if we continue to just creep higher, grind higher, even as these lackluster earnings come out? >> as we climb the wall of worry so to speak? >> at what point do you the

skeptics stop being a skeptic? >> i guess when we break 1,900. i'm so frustrated at the moment, because it doesn't feel -- like, that sell-off the last week felt like it had more to go, and janet comes out, slow down, don't anyone panic, rates will stay lower, and they take it right up again. the market needs to reprice based on fundamentals, and that's where there's disconnect. >> anthony chan, when we look at earnings and talk about -- when you just hear kenny talking about yellen. what's more important over the next few weeks? >> i think the most important thing is going to be what kind of forward guidance do the companies give us? if it's really weather and nothing to worry about, then i think the markets can move on. if the companies tell us, look, this is the way things are, then i think kenny certainly has some very good arguments, and i think kenny maybes a good point about international developments. one of the things that happened overnight is good chinese data on housing prices. housing prices are rising, but a slightly slower pace. the bear also say that's

evidence that china is slowing down. the bulls will say, that's evidence that the central bank is doing more, and maybe more fiscal policy, because prices are not heating up, as the consumer price index is giving them more room to move. >> that's why we love your profession so much, anthony. you economists, you can look at the same number and come up with two different interpretations. i love that. >> thank you. >> we'll see you later in the hour as we head toward the close of trade for this monday. thank you for joining us. we're headed there, about 50 minutes left. the dow up 32 points. we've had the narrowest traded day from top to bottom for the dow going back to october. >> you can see it on the intraday chart, flat after 11:00. there's a new survey that shows the majority of investors would rather put their money in a certificate of deposit -- yes, with near-zero returns -- instead of the stock market. what gives? we'll debate what's driving this phenomenon and if it's justified, coming up. also, the future of television -- broadcast -- good

old-fashioned television, will soon be in the hands of the supreme court. barry diller's antenna company aereo battling the broadcast networks over this. you need to pay attention, because what the high court decides could change what the broadcasters put on television and how much you pay for it, more importantly. we'll explain what's going on coming up. for those of you under 30, there are broadcast channels you could watch without cable if you wanted to. i know they don't know that. one of the best and worst jobs to have, wait until you hear which list your job falls into. don't go anywhere.

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all right. the supreme court, as we said, is hearing this closely watched case tomorrow that could affect how much you pay for tv service forever.

nbc's pete williams lays out what's at stake for us. hey, pete. >> reporter: good afternoon. this is a court challenge to a software application called aereo. it allows its maying customers to watch broadcast tv signals live on mobile devices, or record them to watch later. and here's how it works. a user who enters a request to watch a specific show is assigned an individual microantenna that tunes to the correct channel and feeds into a digital recorder reserved for that user at that moment, and then on to the user's mobile device. aereo says that's no different legally than a person at home using an antenna and a home video recorder. but the broadcast networks, including nbc universal, the parent company of cnbc, they say aereo is different, that aereo is taking free over-the-air programs and selling access to them without paying for the right to do it. cable and satellite tv companies do pay for the network copyright fees. a lawyer for the networks says

aereo fundamentally is engaged in a business model that's about something for nothing. now, billions of dollars are at stake here. if aereo loses, it's probably the end of its business, at least as it's configured now. if the networks lose, it could undercut the legal authority of charging for the retransmission fees. as you say, argued tomorrow, decision before the end of june. >> thanks, pete, very much. let's get more about what's at stake here. both sides of the case and for all of us, television viewers out there. >> barry cohn is at braumfield, hillary nye are both copyright experts. hillary, let me start with you. how do you think this case goes down, in favor of whom? >> well, i'm going to say in favor of the networks. because it's really not that difficult. this is a case about theft. >> you think aereo is stealing the signal? >> oh, absolutely. >> clear and simple? >> the fact that they're

charging for it, the service here? >> absolutely. >> what do you think, barry? >> this has nothing to do with theft. it's no different than if you have an antenna on your house and your only dvr. same thing for two people with one antenna -- or two antennas on the roof and one dvr. all aereo is doing is advantaging technology. they've taken thousands and thousands of antennas and dvrs and every individual has their own dvr and antenna. >> that part i get, but the fact they're charging customers $8 a month, they're turning around and profiting from this retransmission. isn't that the stealing part that hillery is talking about? >> it has nothing to do with stealing. everyone charges for everything. it's the idea of america to have capitalism. in fact, it's better for the country. >> yeah, but the cable companies are paying the retransmission fees. they're at least playing by the

rules. >> what if aereo paid fees for it? would that settle this? >> well, i think it would. but they somehow believe they're above the law and not beholden to anyone other than end users who are paying for something which they are stealing from the broadcasters. >> barry, what do you think is the impact of the age of the supreme court? for those of you under 30, i make this joke. but there is broadcast television, right, that you don't need a cable box to watch. you can actually just plug in a tv and there's, like, eight or ten channels. >> actually -- >> transmitted in hd. >> 20% of the country needs antennas. they can't get cable anywhere. >> right. so what impact is it that so many of the supreme court remember that long before there was cable, there was free television, barry? do you think that has an impact? >> well, it does. abc and cbs have all threatened and said if they lose, they will stop their transmissions over the air and go to a pure cable

system. whether that happens or not, i don't know. it would affect the 20% -- the 20% of the country that gets -- >> this wouldn't be able to watch television anymore? >> yeah, but whether that happens or not, all they -- all of the networks are cable companies, just like you're a network but tied to a cable company. whether they're going to do that because the sister companies, i doubt it. they do get the transmission fees, although not directly. they do get it through advertising, through commercials. >> hillery, i've already sort of staked my claim on which way i go -- i agree with you. however, isn't this also a case of technology getting ahead of everybody else? aereo has figured out how they can do this and they've made a good business model out of it, and they're trying to make this thing work? >> well, but we don't go to the courts to have them validate a business model. right? we go to the courts to have them uphold the law. and if the law doesn't work, then you have to change the law. and at this point in time, the law says you can't just do -- >> they've won some cases, in

new york and boston. aereo won those cases. the broadcast networks only won one of the cases out in utah. so i'm wondering what they're looking at in boston and new york that tells them that aereo is in the right in this case? >> well, i think it involves an analysis of the underlying technology. because really, this isn't that different at the end of the day from the napster cases, because in napster, you know, copyright law applied even though consumers wanted napster to exist. >> that was the music channel of years ago online? >> exactly. exactly. you know, the law's the law. public performance is public performance. it's not measured by how many people show up at the theater. it's measured by the fact it's being made available. >> we have to remind everybody what napster was at one point. here's what i don't understand, barry, why didn't the broadcast networks do this themselves? >> yeah i agree. >> -- this is challenging, and the economics of an industry, and it's a wake-up call really

for the broadcasters, but it's a different issue. whether or not -- >> it is technology -- >> is legal is one issue. the other issue is whether or not we should be having business models like this, because, hey -- [ overlapping speakers ] >> barry, it could become a moot point. if aereo gets the approval, then the broadcast networks, what's the barrier to entry? can you do the exact same thing and now aereo -- >> les moonves has said he will start a service just like this if aereo wins this case. >> sure, that's the whole idea of technology. it is a technology, just like broadcasters tried to stop sony, the beta max 20, 30 years ago. it is being challenged in the courts and the courts there said there's nothing wrong with beta max and vcrs, technology that's obsolete. it's an advancement of technology, and we should embrace it. >> an advancement of technology is great as long as it follows the constricts of the law. >> to me, it sounds like aereo -- >> -- has said that. >> -- when you start to play out

the ramifications, it sounds like aereo is doomed if it wins or doomed if it loses. >> why if they win? >> if it wins, the other broadcasters say, we'll mimic that broadcast. we'll mimic that business model, we'll do it ourselves, barrier to entry is low. and then they're going to get their lunch eaten. they'll have a lot less market share. >> you're nodding, hillery. >> and the big players are coming. if they do win, the bigger players who have more market share, who have brand recognition, yeah, they're going to be chomping at the bit to get into this game. >> all right. well, the case -- [ overlapping speakers ] >> -- abc versus aereo, we'll be hearing the supreme court -- hear the argument on that case tomorrow. thank you both for your thoughts today. >> who wants to watch only broadcast, bill? if you watch only broadcast, you don't get to watch cnbc, right? >> well, that goes without saying. >> that's a bigger question. >> it doesn't make any sense, does it? >> there's roughly 40 minutes before the bell. the dow jones industrials average now is higher by roughly 27 points. >> yum brands was downgraded by jpmorgan ahead of the restaurant

chain's earnings which come out tomorrow. even though it is bringing back the famous double-down to kfc which we all love. that, of course, is the bacon and cheese sandwich that uses two, count 'em two, pieces of fried chicken as a bun. huh? no gluten anywhere. so should you bite into this stock, it says here, or heed jpmorgan's call? do not miss our food fight coming up next. >> it's not cable without a pun. plus, how does this happen? a 16-year-old stowaway miraculously survives a flight from silicon valley to hawaii. >> this is unbelievable. >> in the wheel of a plane. >> unbelievable. >> where was airport security? the security experts will weigh in. keep it right here. ial noise

financial noise financial noise financial noise are we still on for tomorrow? tomorrow. tomorrow is full of promise. we can come back tomorrrow. and we promise to keep it that way. csx. how tomorrow moves. what a day. can't wait til tomorrow.

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get started at viagra.com. stocks picking up the new week in the green. >> this could be our fifth consecutive up day if we stay here. seema, what's moving the market? >> a lot of big movers. growing speculation that newmont is merging with barrett gold is pushing shares higher. talks between the two gold producers are breaking down,

reports say. ford could announce within the next month that coo mark fields will replace ceo mulally. the transition period could be short. wall street earnings on deck today, we're watching netflix getting set to report earnings after the bell. mcdonald's, apple later this week. speaking of facebook, goldman sachs reiterates its buy rating citing continued momentum. it has fallen nearly 13% over the last two months. lastly, jpmorgan downgrading yum from neutral to overrate. the reason? yum's new financial reporting structure. bill, over to you. >> all right, seema, thank you very much. >> all right. so besides yum's new financial reporting structure, are there other reasons to invest in yum, like bringing back the double-down to the brand kfc? >> your kfc. >> yes. uh-huh, fried chicken, bacon and cheese. the fried chicken is the bread. that's the genius of it. besides that, we have earnings tomorrow. >> by the way, peter salei says

it's all about china for yum, for him. however, andrew keen thinks rising food prices could really hurt them. let's do a stock brawl on yum today. andrew, you think that it's -- in fact, you can't find a single positive fundamental for this company, right? >> i can't find many things. we got downgraded before earnings. technically on a daily chart, it doesn't look strong at all. it looks very, very weak. also, we have rising food pri s prices, you know, all of the corn, all of the cattle is rising, too. what's the catalyst to make the thing go higher? the waffle taco? it looks disgusting. and the double down, with chicken on both sides. you're getting health conscious. china will be a big factor. the stock has sold off two of the last three times on earnings. technically looks weak. i think it's headed lower. >> peter, what do you say to all of that? >> look, this is all about china. it's not about food costs. if the china comp can come in the high single digit, low double digit range, the stock goes higher.

you look back to the november comp, they put up a 16% positive in the first days of november with a really great promotion in china. >> let's remind everybody what happened to yum in china. they had this horrific scare, rumors online about chicken and antibiotics and they've struggled to come back from that. you were saying that's so bad, numbers look easy now? >> they're up against a negative 20 comp. if they're going to get back half of that, get back to a 10% comp, positive 10% comp in china, the stock takes off from here. >> i just think there's no reason to buy the stock right here. i'd rather be buying it above $80. if we can break out above 79, 80, it can head higher. we had analysts downgrade it just today, the day before earnings, pulte blew out their quarter. the stock was up $35 in reverse and is down again today. i don't see how they're going to put in a good comp when they blew out their number. the stock sold off. >> -- two different -- >> go ahead, peter.

>> two very different business models. one is company owned, one is highly franchised. i don't think you'll see a commodity impact like chipotle at yum. 90% of the business, if not more, in the u.s. is franchise. so they're not going to feel that type of pressure on the bottom line. and they've been cutting costs in china. so i think the margins will be fine. >> peter, you don't think that the news you're expecting to be better is already priced into this stock at this point? >> no, i don't. i think -- you know, in the high single 7%, 8% comp, it's kind of expected, if they put up a 10, 11, 12 in china, i think it goes higher. >> andrew, there's been so much negativity about the stock for so long. i mean, at some point, it gets a bounce, no? >> it got a bounce last time -- the last time on earnings, went up over 8%. it doesn't happen very often. historically, the last-day quality of -- four times sold off. so last time on earnings, they got the jump and it couldn't hold. the fact of the matter is, it's underperforming the market and technically looks broken. i don't think it gets through 79.

i'd rather break out higher. why get long in the earnings? it doesn't make sense. >> you want it to prove itself before you get back in here? >> absolutely. >> all right. good to see you both. thank you. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> i have to say, you get your hands all greasy if the chicken is in the bun. >> they wrap it in the paper, the wax paper. they think about these things, they do. >> look at that thing. >> see the paper? the paper is there for that reason. >> yum. >> you know, except for the breading, it would work if you were on napkins. >> take your word for it. >> we have 30 minutes to go here, up 24 points on the dow. again, this would be our fifth consecutive up day. we haven't done that since last october, as a matter of fact. >> very low-volume day. >> yeah. >> we're getting gains here. the s&p 500 also in positive territory. new survey shows investors would rather put their cash in certificates of deposit, which, yes, earn close to zero, versus the stock market. are you kidding moo he? wow, you missed a huge run here. we're going to speak with the economist behind the shocking

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welcome back. generally a positive day on wall street. a quiet day, though, we have to admit. the european markets are all closed as they take an extra day after the easter holidays. of course, it's patriots day up in new england as the boston marathon was under way there today. a lot of trading is not taking place that would normally happen. be that as it may, the dow up 24 -- 26 points now. the nasdaq's up 18. the s&p up 4. this would be the fifth coecutive up day for the markets. michelle? if you want a return on your money and the choices between a low-interest certificate of deposit, what we know as a cd, or the stock market, to me, the choice is clear. it should be the stock market, right? >> it's all basic math, right? but not so fast. according to a bankrate survey, 73% of americans who were surveyed in this are not more inclined to invest in the stock market even though interest rates on savings accounts and

cds are microscopic, as we all know. so why? let's talk about it, analyze it, bring in the person behind the survey, bankrate's greg mcbride, along with cnbc contributor michael farr and our own jeff cox. greg, what do you make of this? why they answered the way they did? >> well, bill, a lot of people -- the financial crisis, those wounds from 2008 are still pretty fresh. that was the second time after the tech bust that people felt burned by the stock market. and so, a lot of individual investors that swore off stocks after 2008 are still pretty resolute. they're sticking to that. they're not getting back in, despite the fact that this market has more than recovered the losses and setting new record high after record high, and the cash and fixed income alternatives are at record lows. >> michael, does this surprise you? >> it doesn't. we've seen investors making the choices going into bonds and

bond funds. we've also seen the little investor typically do the wrong thing. you have to remember what buffett says. be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. this is a fearful time. staying invested has brought terrific rewards for those invested. >> jeff, this plays into a contrarian bull's hands, because it's the public, when they finally want to get in the market, it's probably too late by that time. >> yeah, bill, that's always the worry that the little guy's the last one in, the gains have already been realized. you know, i kind of think, though, if you're waiting for the little guy to go all in, i don't know if we're going to see it in our lifetimes. i think people are so afraid of this market. i mean, you'd have to have rocks in your head the size of pike's peak to not be afraid of this market. i think most are caught between the devil and the deep-blue sea. they don't know what to do. it's really not the retail investor's game now. >> michael, when i saw this data, i thought, wow, this tells me there's more to the bull

market. >> michelle, i felt exactly the same way. but i got really concerned, because i'm worried about the retirees, the folks who have undersaved, those folks overleveraged, those folks spending more now on credit, and we've seen the use of credit increase. i think people are ill-prepared for retirement. and if they're not -- >> but that's a separate issue, right? >> well, it is and it isn't. it's keeping them out, right? >> the average investor is not stupid, though. they know what's generating the market. they know, you know, we've seen zero bound interest rates, seen $4 trillion of money printing from the fed. and it's inflated market value. and they're just afraid to get burned again. i agroo he with all the arguments that they're costing themselves money by doing this. but i think i can understand what the investors' psychology is behind -- >> greg, my parents grew up in the depression, in the 1930s. and as a result, they never bought a single stock in their lifetime. they didn't trust the stock market because of what they witnessed in the 1920s and '30s.

what do you think it will take to get the individual investor back into this market right now, or, as jeff suggests, will this not happen in our lifetime, because of that? >> well, bill, we've been doing this poll now three years in a row. each of those three years, i keep waiting to say, okay, is this the year people get back in? the market's up 21% since we did last year's poll. it's up 35% since we did the poll in 2012, and all the while, the answers have been pretty consistent. so, you know, to jeff's point a moment ago, i'm not sure the individual investor is going to get back in, and even if they do, i think it is a contrarian indicator given that in the past when the individual investor jumps on the bandwagon, they tend to bail at the first sign of trouble so they end up buying high and selling low. >> all right, guys. >> but you have to stay invested. you have to stay invested. you can't bet against america. >> yeah, i was going to tell you -- >> long term -- long term, you have to stay invested. [ overlapping speakers ] >> -- people don't equate the

stock market with america sometimes. >> exactly. exactly. >> they live -- >> but it is. >> thanks, guys. >> americans do well, investors do well. >> thank you, mike. >> my grandfather started investing in the stock market, a big fan of yours and taught me all the time, keep throwing money at it, stick with it. very much believed emblem attic of america. 20 minutes left, and somebody is making money now if they're long this market. up 29 points on the dow. the s&p's up 5. and the nasdaq up 19 points. >> ticktock, ticktock. we're awaiting netflix's earnings after the bell. the world's largest streaming video service posting results after the close. we'll tell you what the numbers are that you should be watching for next, and then bringing the earnings the instant they hit wall street, and we'll have the very best analysis on the street. you can't afford to miss it. also ahead, so far so good in boston as 36,000 runners pound the pavement in the city that's had quite a journey from last year's bombings, as we know. we'll go live to the site of the marathon coming up. stay tuned.

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to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. netflix shares are in positive territory ahead of the earnings report due out at the

top of the hour. morgan is standing by. what should we be watching for in these numbers? >> so the numbers, the street calling for 83 cents per share on revenues of 1.27 billion. but the biggest thing to watch for, it's actually subscriber growth. in the u.s., netflix has projected net additions of 2.25 million members in q1. internationally, looking for 1.6 million. that would be a 9% quarterly increase to 48 million members worldwide. the key to that growth, it's going to be original content, especially season two of "house of cards." also, looking for guidance on when international will be profitable and expect comments on net neutrality as the debate rages over how much netflix will pay providers to stream its video. now, we've seen one interconnection deal with cnbc, parent company comcast. analysts say more deals like that could be telling for netflix future pricing. michelle and bill, back to you. >> all right, thank you. >> yep, thank you, morgan. we'll see you again at the top of the hour. for the first time in more

than three decades, an american male has won the boston marathon followed by 35,000 other runners. >> there were about 10,000 more runners than usual because all the runners who didn't get to finish last year after the bombings were given automatic entry this year. scott cohn has been covering the story for us all day. scott, runners are still crossing the finish line, right? >> reporter: yes, they are, michelle. in a lot of ways, you know, this was a day that boston has been looking for the better part of the last year, to take the city back in the words of the mayor. they planned intensely for this race for the last six months with a greatly enhanced security effort. some of it visible, some of it invisible. and the economic benefit here, $175 million, that's a record. of course, the city would give it all back in a heartbeat. >> -- today's about the spirit of this race. you know, the spirit of so many people running for some different things. we have 90 different countries represented in this race today. it's just incredible the outpouring.

>> reporter: there was a moment of silence at the beginning of the race early this morning. but other than that, they tried to make it a race that was as normal as possible. roughly 1 million spectators along the 26-mile marathon route. and again, they wanted to make it something that was inviting, even as it was secure. and finally, the winners did come in early afternoon, first the wheelchair racers and then the male winner, meb keflezighi, and for the women, rita jeptoo of kenya, who set a course record. so far so good as we've been saying. the race appears to be going well. people in festive mood, and maybe today they did take the city back. guys? >> scott, you and i were both up there right after the bombing, very different mood, i can imagine, than what we saw last year, huh? >> reporter: oh, absolutely. you remember it. we were there in watertown together when that manhunt came

to a horrible conclusion. yeah, this is different. people were determined, as i said, this year. they wanted to show boston could do this. they want to have marathons in the future that are much more normal. 117 of them now seem to have gone off without a hitch, and hopefully the one is an aberration. >> and that determination, i know, began the day of the bombings last year. they were waiting for this day all year. thank you, scott. see you later. heading toward the close. 13 minutes left in the trading session now with the dow up 28 points. it looks like we're heading toward our fifth consecutive up day for the markets right now. >> it's a pretty strong week for the -- strongest week since, what, december, i think. >> yes. >> pretty good. after the bell, an incredible and disturbing story. a teenager hiding in the whe wheel well of a jet, flies from california to hawaii, and survives. >> unbelievable. >> it's not a miracle, but it's a glaring issue with airport security. ♪ [ male announcer ] when fixed income experts...

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about ten minutes left here. actually, we're seeing a little more buying as we head toward the close with the dow up 23 points. again, a quiet day because many markets around the world were closed for one extra day after

easter. all of the european markets were closed today. usually, we'll get this bump of volume in the morning. >> right. >> when we open, from the european trade. which lasts until about 11:30 in the morning, and then it goes away when they close. but not today. joining us once again, erin gibbs from sp capital iq and anthony chan. now, ask your question. >> tv 101, good five-day streak here. why do you think that is? >> i think it's been somewhat just a lack of news. we did have good retail numbers, so i saw that from the end of last week. that reassured that, yeah, we haven't seen the housing and the car sales because of the bad winter, but the people were still shopping and particularly coming out of march. otherwise, when you look at volume, the up days have been light days, and that's concerning. >> you sound skeptical. >> i'm skeptical. >> is there a disconnect, anthony, between the markets and

the economy? >> i don't think so. there's going to be in a lag. the economy is in the moment where you have to show proof that the economy is getting better. but label market numbers are starting to get better. >> yeah. gradually, right? and not setting on fire. >> the consumer ending strong in the first quarter. by the way, right now, we're starting to see consumer sentiment gradually moving higher. and that should signal much faster economic activity. all of the stories telling us the companies want to spend a lot more money on capital equipment. >> is that priced in? >> no, i don't think so. i think the market is cynical. remember, we're coming off very weak earnings. so over the next couple of weeks, the cynicism, in a way, is good. because we're climbing that wall of worry. >> there was a story on cnbc.com today, only you could find it on cnbc.com, by the way, a sector to look to after sell-off in the market, that usually does well, the industrials. how do you guys view that right now? >> well, one, it's hard to find value in industrials right now. it is tough.

we've actually lightened up on our positions in industrials because of valuations. >> okay. >> another concern is the slowdown in china. there were lofty expectations the beginning of the year we'd see all of the capital spending coming from chinese industrials growth. and every month we keep seeing it ratcheted down, ratcheted down, along with the earnings expectations. so i'm a little hesitant. i think northrup grumman, great company, great name. but quite a few others getting heavy valued. >> anthony, what sections? >> i love the financials. kicking and screaming long-term yields will move higher and that means a steeper yield curve will move higher. i think the health care sector will do well. believe it or not, if we go from a situation where the economy was growing at 2.5%, technology is a good growth industry, so i think technology as the year progresses won't disappoint. >> okay. you're going to head back, because you've got to get ready for the next hour. >> right. >> you have netflix earnings

coming up. >> yes, watching for subscriber doeth. what about international expansion? the deal with comcast. the stock moves so violently at any given time. that's something to watch. >> it has since moved back into positive territory, getting ready for the numbers. in the meantime, we'll come back with the "closing countdown" for this monday. >> keep it here for full team coverage of netflix earnings. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. close on th tomorrow. tomorrow we go live... it's a day full of promise. and often, that day arrives by train. big day today? even bigger one tomorrow. csx. how tomorrow moves. (music) defiance is in our bones. defiance never grows old. citracal maximum. calcium citrate plus d.

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coming up on the three-minute mark now toward the close. positive day. it looks like we'll finish positive here. it's safe to say we'll get this five-day win streak for the dow, which we're going to show you any moment now. first time we've seen that since last october. and it comes amid all of the skepticism about the earnings that have been coming out. we've had a mixed bag from some of the key industries like the financials and so forth. so we'll watch to see if we can continue this win streak. tomorrow morning, yum brands reports earnings. china's the key there. there's the dow. there's the five-day chart. there we are. and in the five days, gained 1.6%. if memory serves, the s&p is up even more than that over that time. the dow has been the laggard among the three averages. yum brands, as i said, reports tomorrow morning.

china the key component there. i'll ask anthony about that in a moment. we're down .5% on that. coming up, netflix is reporting. looking for a profit of 83 cents on the core subscriber growth, the driving number there they'll be watching for. right now, netflix, which opened lower, is trading higher, up $2.50 right now. erin gibbs, what do you think of netflix? >> we're looking for 84 cents. >> okay. >> similar to the street. but for us, it's just too highly priced. for all of our strategies, it's trading at 99 times 2014 earnings, a little on the pricey side. >> it had a stellar performance last year, unbelievable. >> it was one of our biggest winners last year. a great company. good 75% -- >> you took profits, then? >> we took profits. we got out. we don't see it being able to achieve the 75% gains year after year after year. >> okay, anthony chan, as we said, one of the an lists was telling us, it's about china for

yum brands. what's your view of the economy over there, and this slowdown that we've all been ringing our hands over? >> bill, as you know, china is one of the most micromanaged economies in the world. when the economy weakens, guess what, if it does, they will do a lot more. they've already weakened the currency to some extent, cut reserve requirements in the smaller banks. i don't expect them to cut reserve requirements for the banks to stimulate aggressively. if the economy weakens, they will be there. they've given you a ministimulus package. they can do more. bottom line, i think growth will come in somewhere between 7% and 7.2%. no hard landing, soft landing in china. >> wouldn't we love a 7% gdp over here, huh? >> trying to eek out 2.5. >> gep, just to underline this, a very, very busy week for earnings with 150 companies reporting. >> yeah, we'll see. >> thank you both. we'll see you later. so we're going out with a positive for all three major

averages, again, on a quiet day. tomorrow, we'll get a better sense of the mood of this market, especially after one of the best performers from last year, netflix reports its earnings in a moment, and then yum brands tomorrow morning. stay tuned now for a quick analysis of all of that coming up on the second hour of the "closing bell" with michelle caruso-cabrera. i'll see you tomorrow, michelle. >> see you tomorrow, bill. > welcome in to "closing bell." the s&p 500 is posting the first five-day win streak of the year. here's how we're finishing the day on wall street. the dow higher by 38 points. the s&p higher by nearly 7 points. let's bring in today's panel. also with us for more on today's market action is "fast money" trader dan nathan. lady and gentlemen, good to have you here. not a huge move today. it obscures the news that five

days in the rows of gains, it's the best five-day gain in two months. it feels like the correction -- what correction? zachary, what do you think of the market at this point? >> i think the reality is we've had a market that is now up, what, 1.4% on the s&p, down about a necessary on the nasdaq year to date. and if we had had this conversation december 31st, it's not that surprising that you have a market that in spite of short-term gyrations up and down volatility, the fact we need to make stories out of daily movements, we are flat for the year with incredibly low volume, other than some trading activity. and i don't see there should be any disturbance in that or any strong reason why we should have any different market given the economic realities and given the performance of the markets last year. >> anthony, the mood over the last few days? >> it's a fed-induced market. what's happening is people think the fed will relax or go more slowly on the tapering as a

result of the economic data. and so, when you're looking at this stuff, i do think the fed is more tied into this thing now than we would have thought two months ago. >> you think the climb over the last five days is directly related to yellen's testimony? >> i do. >> yeah? sheila, i see you nodding your head, as well. >> i can tell you from the nasdaq perspective, there are traders out there cautious about this five-day move. the nasdaq has had a five-day winning streak. still down 2% for the month. traders are telling me, look at the technicals. still in a downtrend. earnings will be a big factor. there's a lot of caution out there when it comes to the high-flying stocks, to the tech sectors. definitely, people are not buying this five-day winning streak and taking it at face value. >> harding, weigh in. >> i think i agree with what sheila said. you look at other risky asset classes. this hasn't contaminated anything else. it was focused on two sectors that everybody thought might be overvalued. it's good for people to learn two-way risk. but i agree with what zachary said. if you look at the economic indicators -- >> okay, hold on.

i want to get to netflix. morgan is standing by with the numbers. morguen? >> hi, michelle. still going through the report. right now, netflix q1 earnings 86 cents per share. the street was expecting 83 cents per share. that's better than expected. revenues 1.27 billion, in line with expectations. the other big number, subscribers, net addition for domestic streaming, 2.25 million new subscribers this quarter. that is as expected, according to earlier company guidance. internationally, 1.75 million new subscribers, net, that's better than expected. overall, more than 48 million subscribers worldwide. we'll be coming back to you with more numbers and news as soon as we get it. back to you. >> thank you, morgan. let's bring in ross gerber and brent doman for their reaction to these numbers. 86 cents beat, when it comes to the bottom line, even though revenue was right in line, ross. what do you make of the numbers? >> i think the numbers are good, and as expected. they continue to grow. they continue to meet their numbers.

and their story still is a great story. it's a great company with a great product. >> all right. we're looking at the stock higher by almost 3% at this hour. burt, why do you think that is? >> well, i think netflix is one of the momentum stocks. it's a great company. it has a great ceo. i have been a subscriber for full disclosure for the last ten years or more. but it's a stock that, you know, that's not for investing. it's a stock for trading. you don't want to be an investor unless you have a cast-iron stomach. that stock can really test your fortitude. you know, in 2011, it had a top around 304. it plunged to $54 two years -- or one year later. you know, that's a eck had of a decline. >> right. >> you want to trade a stock like that. >> no, of course. let's turn to a trader, anthony. >> and they had one number,

earnings number, better than expected, and the stock is reripping on the momentum side. is that a sign the bull thesis is intact? >> i think right now it's just a trading market. you know, anthony, we've got a market right now, this market is on very thin ice. and when there's good news and there's lots liquidity, stocks go up. when there's a crisis brewing in china, stocks will go down. we saw that this year. look at where the high was for that stock. you know, it's down hugely from the high of this year. so when there's risk on, the stock plunges. when it's risk off, like right now, then the stock will rise. you have to be a trader. >> yeah. and we're seeing trading active right now. dan nathan, go ahead. >> yeah, listen, we can spend a lot of time figuring out what the next ten bucks will be in this thing. to me, you have to watch tomorrow morning, you know, think back to thursday, chipotle, a very similar high valuation, high-growth name, a cult stock, you know, that had some massive moves just like the last panelist said.

you know, when netflix went from $310 to $50, look at chipotle, it's had similar moves. netflix tomorrow morning, you think -- you get this thing gapping up to maybe $400. if sellers come in, and it reverses like chipotle did thursday, a 12% move, up 6% in the morning, closed down 6%, down again today, that's going to tell you a lot about investor appetite to take risk. and i think we'll have a whole host of names like that this week. wynn resorts tomorrow night, also a cult stock. and then facebook on wednesday. >> dan, we're watching it actually lose altitude as we speak. morgan, is there any explanation for this, do you think? >> you know, you have to look at the technicals -- >> sorry about that, michelle. we're still going through the numbers. here's another piece of news for netflix. pricing, we're looking at pricing increases for new subscribers only, $1 to $2, depending on the country, the territory. that will be rolling out this quarter.

netflix has hinted at this, they have telegraphed this could be coming down the pike. now we're seeing it here in this earnings report. back to you. >> you guys, we have to point out this is a muted move to the upside. this is a classic momentum name. we're used to seeing the stock rip 15%, 17% after a good report. i think the company came out, delivered what they said they would, they're perfectly in line, nothing too out of the ordinary. this is a fairly muted reaction chtd don't forget, the ceo bhasically called a top on his own stock. he even said in his recent earnings report, look, the stock has done really well, we're a little concerned about this outperformance. so we're kind of seeing that muted reaction. >> ross, looking at the intraday chart, and, wow, so incredibly volatile. fun to watch. it has to be incredible to trade. now that you've heard more of the numbers, one slight beat when it comes to international subscribers of 100,000, a three-cent beat when it comes to bottom line, but revenue in line. any other things here you see that would explain the trading pattern at this point? >> i think let's separate the company from the stock.

the stock is highly priced. so the swings of the stock are all high p/e swings from 190 p/e to 180 p/e. you know, this is a very expensive stock, and it's a really good company. so i think we're going to see a lot of movement around. i think the bull market is still intact. i think these companies can still go higher, because they're the growth stories. but i think the other thing we have to watch with netflix, very, very closely, is they will be raising prices. there is no way they can keep an $8 price for their subscribers and offer the service that they offer, the content costs and the delivery of the internet costs are going up with netflix. and this is going to affect their business moving forward. >> yeah. [ overlapping speakers ] >> -- those suits are expensive. >> as much as we love netflix and may represent a disruptive change in the entertainment industry, the fact that we're focusing on this as opposed to the degree to which it is a

momentum name as a trading name. bert is entirely right. if a bull market is based on how the netflix and chipotles of the world do, then you should be really cautious and nervous about the sustainability of this. if it's based on corporate earnings at large, as well as a global liquidity environment that supports stocks in general going up, then you should be confident about it. >> but, zach -- zach, couldn't you make the argument that some of the names were leaders? they were the leadership. we had some breakdowns. look at -- >> we had complete breakdowns. >> the last year and a half -- you think about nike, starbuck, lulu, past kind of cult sort of names that just kind of fell by the wayside. and every single one that breaks from here, whole foods another one, you know, it just does put chinks in the armor. >> if we can drill down -- >> -- short-term thinking. >> no, it isn't. >> it is. starbucks has done phenomenally the last three years. [ overlapping speakers ] >> guys? bert?

>> -- the markets are going to tumble. >> bert, could i ask you more about netflix, please? bert? they've raised prices. what happened to the stock the last time it raised prices. >> it tumbled. >> right? and then it came back, though, right? >> absolutely. you know, you cannot use valuation metrics on a stock like netflix. i remember in -- >> i'm not asking if you use valuation metrics. i'm asking about the impact of raising prices. do you buy or sell it? >> it will tumble and come just at the time that alibaba offering may be on the edge of failing. this is going to be the big one this year. wall street is doing everything it can to keep this thing glued together until alibaba launches. after that, you better find out where the exits are. >> well -- well -- >> wow, doomsayer. >> netflix can raise prices up to $10 and the stock will be fine. if they raise prices over $10 a month for u.s. subscribers, i think that's the price point

where people might cancel their subscriptions or -- >> all right. [ overlapping speakers ] we're going to leave it there. much appreciated. >> common sense. >> you can talk off camera. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> all right, everybody. the panel will stick around, and don't forget, catch dan, nathan, the rhett of the crew at 5:00 eastern time. they'll be all over netflix earnings. we'll get more detail on the conference call, as well. that will add some clarity. all right. chinese e-commerce giant, alibaba, could file for its ipo any day now. what does alibaba do, you ask? they do a lot. one thing, there are thousands of transactions on its site every single section. the company is much more than that. find out more about what alibaba does, next. also, how on earth did a teenager avoid airport security, stow away in a wheel well, and fly from california to hawaii? we'll ponder those questions and talk about security.

what does it say about the state of security at our airports, that a kid could do this? as the labor market picks up steam, we have a list of the best and worst jobs of 2014, and you may be shocked by what tops both of those lists. is your job on the list? find out. you're watching cnbc, because we are first in business worldwide.

netflix shares are higher by more than 5% after reporting earnings a few moments ago. let's get a check from morgan. >> hi, thanks, michelle. stocks are trading up right now on this report. one of the things to pull out, more comments on net neutrality. netflix saying that if comcast and time warner cable merger is approved, the combined company's footprint will pass over 60% of u.s. broadband households, so they're coming out against that merger. we're going to keep going through this report and pulling out more for you as we go here. back to you. >> that's pretty interesting, since aren't they consider doing a deal with comcast at the same time? >> so there was the -- there was the deal. we have seen -- we have seen streaming speeds increased 65% since that deal came forward. another thing to keep in mind, comcast is reporting earnings tomorrow, so lots of talk around that merger and netflix

obviously coming out with their public comments, a big deal. >> all right. thank you, morgan. all right. the other big deal, alibaba, it's expected to be one of the year's biggest ipos, if not the biggest. what is alibaba? josh lipton explains why you should care about this chinese internet company. josh? >> yeah, michelle, in only 15 years, it has exploded from just an idea to an e-commerce power house responsible for half the parcels delivered in china, and more than 60,000 transactions per second. jack mof founded alibaba in 1999 and is now preparing to take the company public in a hotly anticipated ipo. alibaba often compared to american e-commerce giants like amazon, but his business model is actually very different. alibaba does not directly sell goods. it operates websites to which consumers buy and sell goods with each other. alibaba, then, makes money from advertising, which accounts for the bulk of its revenue. in the final quarter of 2013,

they generated revenue of $3.1 billion. that was a 66% jump year over year on the top line. analysts at cantor fitzgerald now peg its valuation at $184 billion. for investors, alibaba offers eck pose our to the chinese -- exposure to the chinese e-commerce market by 2020. the market is expected to be bigger in the u.s., britain, japan, germany, and france combined. michelle, back to you. >> wow, 180 billion. that would be, like, 50 times earnings. thank you, josh. i want to bring in the panel for more on alibaba, and rejoined by burt doman who a few moments ago said interesting, controversial things about alibaba. i don't know where to begin here, everybody is so anxious. zachary? >> i've been following this company for ten years, at least. it's more like a combination of ebay, amazon, with a little bit -- >> and a money market, as well. >> right. it's an omnibus of this activity. and in many ways, it's just a proxy for if you believe that there is indeed this transition in china to a consumer-oriented

middle class, meaning that will be the next wave of the chinese economy, as opposed to stay oriented spending on infrastructure and housing, then this is where that's going to be manifest. >> but is it worth 40, 50 times earnings? >> i have a question that's transings and talking about the rebalance towards consumption. i have a question about the regulatory environment. last month, china passed a big consumer protection law. will it protect consumers or add a level of bureaucracy? and also a bank stifling the move toward mobile payments which is part of the alibaba futurement i guess i'm wondering how investors are supposed to take that into account when figuring out whether to price -- or figuring out how to price the company? i really don't know. it seems like a big unknown. >> i guess that's the thing. there's a lot of unknowns about this company. wife been talking about the

company for the past ten years. we've been hyping it up. we know some of the big numbers. we get a hint of how the company does every time yahoo! reports, but we don't know a whole lot of detail. that's why everybody is so concerned about the ipo, because there's so much hype. >> bert, we made you wait, because we know you hated it. what don't you like about alibaba? >> it has a better business model than amazon, because it doesn't have anything invested in inventory. in the recession, they could withstand it much better than a company like amazon. having said that, though, it will be launched. the launch is going to be successful. it will have a big surge upward for a few days, because wall street has to engineer that in order to get this thing done. this is the biggest ipo event we've had in ages. >> that's not just alibaba. that's every ipo. >> -- fails to do that. facebook went public, did very badly and now doing well again. >> the spirit is once it gets done -- [ overlapping speakers. ? [ . >> after that, a huge plunge in

the chinese market, because china right now is having a credit crisis. credit crisis is always followed by a recession. and when there's a recession lurking, even if the results don't get bad for alibaba, the psychological part will make alibaba go down, just like buydue. it's an excellent company, but when there's an inkling of problem in china, it bites the dust. so this is what i would be careful about. i think that this year's going to be the big turn in the u.s. stock market and in the global markets from bull market to bear market. and there's no stock that's going to withstand that. >> all right. would you try to get in on this ipo? >> look, i think burt has been right on a lot of things related to china, but where i'll disagree is their market share, 80%, 90%, and the chinese have 15% broad access to alibaba, and

it did 5.7 billion versus 1.5 billion in the united states t shows the power of this brand. i think this thing trades through the $200 billion market -- >> wow. >> -- definitely. that's our opinion. and so it's not to say -- >> -- a price somewhere roughly 160 to 180 -- >> and it will trade through the $200 billion market gap number. burt and i have known each other a long time, and he's been right on aspects of china. i think what we're all missing here, it's a well managed team, and they own a lot of things in a quote/unquote monopoly like way in china. >> absolutely. >> how about the fact -- >> anthony, you are so right. [ overlapping speakers ] >> -- they've been investing in a mapping firm, bought into a department store, and investing in a film studio. they feel like they're throwing a lot of money at a lot of things. by the way, because they've been so wrapped up in yahoo! to

sheila's point, there's so much we don't know about them, right? >> the acquisition, it sounds like every other tech company in silicon valley, whether you're talking about facebook or twitter. they're trying to grow. they're trying to make sure they have a foothold in any spot that's hot. they have the money to do it. and now a public currency to do it. >> right. >> -- cash investments. >> no different than google buying facebook -- or youtube. >> but you see, anthony, after the stock hits $200, then you have to take it to the next step. where does it go from there? i say it will go down like the rest of china is going to decline. >> yeah, burt -- >> no matter what the fundamentals are. >> burt, your call is a mac macro call. jim has been right about the stock action about china, but not correct about the macro action. i think the question is more, if you're doing this because you think there will be a global market collapse, you should be short of everything. we'll go down a little more. >> and why not? >> that has nothing to do with

alibaba, though. >> all righty. guys, thank you so much. we're going to get to seema mody, standing by for a quick "market flash" on another chinese company super hot. >> that's right, michelle, after a strong first day of trade, weibo continues to move higher. it now has a market cap of, get this, $4.7 billion. so as we discuss chinese poips, this is one to keep in mind. michelle? >> yeah, absolutely. thank you so much, seema. if you've been hit by sticker shock at the gas station lately, you are not alone. how come gasoline prices tend to shoot up like a rocket but take forever to fall back down to earth like a feather? we'll answer that question next. and then, earth week at nbc universal. coming up, we'll look at whether green investing is a great way to generate green for your portfolio. back in a moment. ♪

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cleveland clinic. call today, for an appointment today. you've probably noticed prices spiking at your local gas station recently. gasoline prices up nearly 6% this month. oil prices, though, are up only 3%. so what gives? jackie deangelis is here to explain. >> good afternoon, michelle. the national average for a regular gallon of gasoline now, $3.66. this is up 14 cents from a month ago, up 15 cents from the same time last year. but experts say that retail gas prices, while they do depend on the price of crude, and we are over $104 a barrel right now,

they're not necessarily only impacted by that. there are a couple of factors to consider here that i want to highlight, including seasonality. the summer driving season is around the corner. with that comes the switch made by well fineries from wenter to summer blends of gas. the summer blend is generally more expensive. but also, refinery run rates drop during the switchover at a time when some aring seasonal maintenance, as well. add this up, and it does mean we'll see higher prices at the pump as a result of crude prices, and as a result of some of the switchovers that we're seeing. expect gas prices to rise more over the next couple of months, and keep in mind that the peak of the driving season and the peak of gas prices will be in july, and that seems pretty far off from where we are right now. back to you, michelle. >> all right, thank you so much, jackie. for more now on what's behind the move to higher gas, dan weiss and patrick dehan at gasbuddy.com.

patrick, what do you think is the explanation for why we're seeing gasoline prices rise? >> i think it's pretty simple. this is the time of year when refineries are doing that oncoming maintenance, and it's something that over time, you know, folks say 20 years ago we didn't have this impact. no, we didn't. we're operating far fewer refineries and when one of them goes down, it's larger in size and a bigger problem. so prices spike as well as the epa, with the summer regulations that we see for gasoline. and now we're up to about 15 different types of u niece gasoline, and some areas opt in and opt out. it's the logistics surrounding summer gasoline and how much more expensive it is to produce. >> is it a sign that maybe the economy is improving? >> yeah, it could be. you know, first, it's important to note that the big winner with high gasoline prices are the big oil companies. we did an analysis a couple of years ago that found every cent -- >> dan, i am so sorry, but we've got to break in, because breaking news on the big takeover battle in the drugmaking battle. stand by.

seema? >> michelle, the headlines. dow jones quoting sources, big ackman is teaming up with valiant to pursue a takeover of allergen. that's what we know so far. allergen is the biggest investment, again according to sources of dow jones. we'll keep you updated on this story. you can see shares of allergen up after hours, so a big move in ailergan now. back over to you. >> the activists are at it again. anthony, what do you make of this move by ackman? >> listen, he's playing to his brokerage. i think it's brilliant. it's in the activist playbook to do these sorts of things. again, this is the reason why skybridge has a 40% allocation to been activist and bill will be successful here and it's a sign the bull market is intact. look for more deals like this coming. we reported over the weekend the pfizer potentiality deal there.

>> right. i was going to ask you about that. the timing isn't coincidental, is it, that we're talking about a potential huge deal, as well, with astrazeneca? is this an area of the market ripe for these kinds of moves? >> i don't know. it's tough to say. we've been following pfizer and this potential deal for sometime. frankly, it's worth waiting to find out if something actually happens than to speculate on it, given what the market has been doing the last few weeks. >> zachary, are there economics within the health care sector that are pushing these kinds of deals? >> there's not a huge amount of organic growth. there's a huge amount of cash and a lot of profits. when you put those together, you end up having a favorable climate for companies buying other companies. >> it's about pipeline. all of the companies are looking how to build up the pipeline, if they don't want to do the r&d dollars, they'll buy them. >> do you think you'll see spillover effect, sheila. >>? >> particularly in the biotech sector. this certainly could help kind

of floor some of that and give a little more enthusiasm to the other bio targets. >> it's still up hugely over the past monthment even with the two-day rally, a lot of the names are off 30%, 40%, so there's a lot of room to recoup and this could be some sort of catalyst. >> guys, thank you so much. our apologies to the other guests who joined us for the gas discussion. but activist bill ackman at it again, talking about going after valiant. we'll do that, guys, no problem. bill ackman, as active as he has over the last several years, anthony, what about activists in general? is it a good thing or bad thing? >> last week, had the opportunity to have dinner with one of the big activists and on this topic. the playbook is there. there's been an under allocation of that cash into investing in their core businesses. that could be the recession. it could be regulatory worry.

there's been a relatively inaction, inertia by corporate management teams and their respective boards. this is a ripe opportunity for activists. one thing that people don't cover is that there's a lot of minority protection rights in the graham-frank legislation, which is helping the big activist players get what they want from these boards and from these ceos. so, michelle, i think this is still the first or second inning. again, we have over $4.5 billion in this, and so we're a big believer in -- >> i understand why allergan, the acquired company rises sharply, the buyer falls, because there's expected to be an arbitrage, but take a look at shares of valiant. they're sharply higher. >> i was struck by that, as well. weird after-hours action based on breaking news is not exactly something i'm comfortable -- really strong thesis about.

it could be that if it's an accretive acquisition, that it's going to provide growth where there is none organically, looked on very favorable use of cash. >> let's get more on netflix earnings, as well. morgan has more details. i mean, poring through the numbers. morgan? >> thanks, michelle. we want to look at the forecast for q2 with netflix specifically with subscriber growth. q2 typically a seasonally, much slower quarter for netflix. so the forward guidance for subscriber growth much lower. we're looking at about 500,000 net additions this quarter, as well as just under 1 million for international. this is where it's getting interesting. the international numbers, when you look at contribution margin, which is what tells us, especially with international, netflix has been losing money on its international business. when you look at that number, we see a dramatic drop. this quarter, q1, negative 13%. but going into q2, we're looking at negative 3.9%.

netflix says that they are on track to achieve profitability in their international division this year, so that expansion in europe and that expansion abroad is something to keep an eye on for netflix, especially as it gets into the second half of the year. back to you. >> the stock is now higher by % 7%. one of the highs of the post-close session. thank you, morgan. it's being called by a miracle by aviation experts and troubling by security experts. a teenager who stowed away inside a plane's wheel well during a flight from california to hawaii survived, despite subzero temperatures and a lack of oxygen. how in this post-9/11 world, is anybody able to bypass security? that story next. what do you this i would rate as the best and worst jobs to have right now? we've got the results of a new study, and we'll reveal the surprising numbers -- winners and losers -- and have someone on the show with the best job and someone with the worst job. don't miss it. just take a closer look. it works how you want to work.

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well as raising a red flag on security. nbc's chase cane is at san jose's airport with more. chase, is the teen's story checking out? did he really get on this plane and survive? it almost seems like a miracle. >> reporter: it sure is, michelle. a lot of people have noted he is incredibly lucky to be alive, because this is a part of the plane that does not have pressure, so there won't be a lot of oxygen at that altitude, and some of the temperatures could have dropped to about 80 degrees below zero, so they say he is, in fact, very lucky to be alive. also, the fbi said he was unconscious for most of the flight because of the lack of oxygen inside that wheel well, although he is doing okay today. he is in the custody of hawaiian child protective services. they're working to get him back here to his home in the san jose area in the near future. we did talk off camera with the boy's sister earlier today, and she also said he was doing fine. she also sort of downplayed this event. she did not seem very concerned or worried about what happened.

that was sort of interesting for us to notice. but also raised the question of security, an that's the question we've heard from so many people today. how could something like this happen? the answer we've gotten is, listen, it's simple. the guy hopped the fence, strolled across the tarmac and on board this hawaiian jet. now, san jose airport does have surveillance video of that happening and they told us today they'll be looking through the surveillance video to see if there is anything they may need to improve with the -- with their security. but san jose airport officials say they already meet or exceed all required security measures, and this has happened before. this is not an unprecedented event. that someone is able to stow away inside a plane, although it does not have as much of a happy ending that this boy was able to survive, and also interesting to note it does not appear he will face criminal charges. both the fbi and police here in san jose say they do not expect to press charges against him, michelle. >> chase, so many incredible things in your story, i don't know where to begin. all right, thank you. so the ability of a teen to stow

away, get access to the plane's wheel well, also setting off airport security concerns, even though you heard the airport say they meet all the standards. i want to bring in former pilot denny kelly as well as the panel to discuss. mr. kelly, what do we make of this? my immediate thought is, beyond the fact that great the kid is okay, but what if this was a wanna-be terrorist who was carrying some kind of grenade or explosive and gotten in the wheel well of the plane? this would not be a happy ending. how does this happen? >> well, you know, one word, easy. the security in our airports is terrible. it's no better today than it was september 10th, 2001, and i've said that and other people have said that for years. if he jumped over the fence, ran out to the airplane, they caught him on video, why didn't they radio the airplane to stop and send the police car or police cars out to see what was going on? you know, why did they let it take off?

it's obvious easy to do, and if he had been a terrorist with some kind of nefarious scheme in mind, it could have been totally disastrous. >> yeah, he would have been able to achieve it. sheila, you were -- >> is this enough of an event to make sure the airports step up when it comes to security around the perimeter, around the fences in the tarmac area? >> i didn't -- i didn't hear your question. >> is this going to be impetus for airports to improve the security around the perimeter? >> you know, they're supposed to have excellent security on the perimeter now. so, yes. absolutely. somebody's going to have to take a look at this at all the airports and say, where is the weakness? >> here's what i don't understand, you said something earlier -- you said, we're no safe wher we fly. so why is it still so much of a hassle to fly? flying has gotten super horrendous since september 11. >> right. >> and i thought it was that the

name of security. [ overlapping speakers ] >> it's all politics. >> we're not safer -- we're not any more safer -- >> no, no, no. all they do is hassle the passengers getting on the airplane. there's so many other ways that terrorist ds can get weapons or explosives or people on the airplane than the passenger terminal, that it's ridiculous. people have been saying that for a long time. nobody does anything about it. >> well, this was pretty dispirting. thank you for weighing in. see you next week. all right, coming up next, much more on bill ackman's takeover attempt of allergan. cnbc is going green this week. ♪

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if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. >> more on the takeover attempt in the drug industry. bill ackman pursuing a takeover of allergan. let's get more from meg as well as cnbc contributor herb greenberg who has covered these companies extensively. herb, your initial thoughts? >> i did a piece on whether valiant will overdose on acquisitions. this is just back in january. people don't know valiant. valiant is a huge rollup. you have to understand this, of drug companies. its goal is to have $150 billion in market cap over the next three years. allergan is $42 billion in

market cap. valeant is $42 billion, so that gets you to 80. they said they wanted to do a merger real soon. this is that merger of equals. >> what do we make of the fact the stock is higher? generally, when you see a company get acquired, the stock moves higher, but valeant has moved higher by 10%. why is that? >> this is fitting with the strategy people expect for the company right now. i think this is also going to start shining a bigger spotlight on valeant, and so, i think going forward after the sort of dust falls from this, people will look at valeant, look at the balance sheet, looking at the strategy, and come back to that question of whether it will overdose on acquisitions. >> meg terrell, weigh in here. what can you tell us about this potential deal? >> herb makes a great point. this is the strategy that valeant has been pursuing for a long time. it's a serial acquirer, but the stock has risen continuously with each acquisition it's been making, oftentimes because they

make picks immediately accretive to earnings. acompare valeant to a private equity company. they buy companies, sell the drugs more efficiently, they don't do r&d. they're run by a pharma mckenzie consultant, beloved by the street. and they've added a lot of value. so that's another thing that they're doing here. with allergan, it's interesting, because this has been a target that's been speculated to be bought for a while. it is a huge company. but it's got some overlap in dermatology and in eye drugs. of course, in botox. that's a huge value driver for any acquirer. >> let me ask you this. is it coincidence that this is the same day that we were talking about a potential pfizer-astrazeneca deal? what is it about the drug industry that would lead to big deals like this? >> it's amazing there was this $101 billion deal we were talking about earlier today. that was driven by patent cliffs by pfizer and astrazeneca looking for growth. here, it's been valeant strategy. it's making a big acquisition,

getting to the $150 billion number. that takes a lot to buy, and allergan can bring that here. >> but at some point, then you have to start looking at valeant's organic growth, and you have to start looking at the real quality of the earnings. that's going to -- >> herb, explain to me ackman in all of this. >> that's what i -- that's -- the minute i thought, i thought, oh, my, what is ackman playing in this? i saw jim cramer was saying, my goodness, allergan is his favorite company in the space. i don't know where ackman is in the space. i haven't heard back from him yet. that will be a great part of the story. >> yeah, maybe he doesn't like frowning either. nobody gets the joke. okay. ladies and gentlemen, thank you. >> we get it, we get it. >> -- herb's on a phone. you can't see him not frowning. >> all right. thank you, lady and gentlemen. we'll talk more about this as we get more details and any kind of confirmation we can on the dow jones story about the potential takeover of allergan. all right. i love my job.

according to a new survey, i have one of the worst jobs in erk in. -- america. i need to talk to those people. regardless, though, up next, find out if you and your job is joining me and my job on the list of best and worst jobs in america. we're back after this. we did a 27-point inspection on your chevy,ce, you got new tires and our price match guarantee. who's this little guy? that's birney. oh, i bet that cone gives him supersonic hearing. watch what you say around him. i've been talking a lot about his procedure...

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. there's good and bad in every job. a new survey says there's more good in some and some awfully bad in others. we have the breakdown of the good, bad and ugly. she joins us now. >> career cast is out with the annual ranking of the ten best and worst jobs for 2014. after pouring through thousands of jobs theny narrowed it down. let's walk you through the best and worth. nine out of the ten of the best jobs fell into what we call the stem care category. mathematician came in number one moving up 17 spots this year. $101,000. they're no longer thought of as the geeks since they are the ones who help make key

decisions. second, a tenured professor. and third, status tissuen. they'll figure out if there are changing patterns in sales. now the worst, five from the bottom. broadcaster, high stress. and the third, enlisted military. always on this list for obvious reasons. and then newspaper reporter because of long hours. low pay and industry that is collapsing. wait so combined broadcast and journalist. that means some of us here better watch out. lastly, worst job is dangerous and pays little. now machines are replacing humans. he is mr. lumber jack and he is not okay. michelle. >> $24,000 is what they make. thank you. great rundown there. so what do the professionals think. joining us now is a jael university mathematician who ka

authored the math automatics of poker. according to to the study he has the best job in the world. also the international paul bunion lumber jack show. if you believe seaman's report, he has the worst job in the world. lee, how do you feel about that? >> i don't think it's the worst job. i get a lot of exercise. it's a lot of fun and rewarding. but at the end of the day you see what you produce. that's the great thing about it. for people that are outside and want to be outside, that's the way to go. >> jared, i bet that makes you jealous? hey, i like to spend more time outside but it's all fun and nice to be able to work in my air conditioned office and solve some of the most interesting problems with giant positive data that need to be analyzed and sifted through so we can deliver value for all kinds of businesses. >> were you surprised that mathematician was considered the

best job? >> i certainly wasn't. i think it's a great job. full of interesting problems that take a lot of special training. this is a very special time. we have increasingly sophisticated algorithms and able to do things that would have been impossible ten years ago. >> lumber jack are also pretty sophisticated. we're running machinery right now that have all kinds of computer operations to it. you have the chain saws obviously are what allowed lumber jacks to use today. they're computer oriented. we do have air conditioning because some of those machines are air conditioned also. not only that, in consideration with that, we have to know how much money is in each single

log. yeah. we have got to know what the sales are going to be. we have got people counting and checking the logs and numbering the logs. it's a pretty good size business. >> lee, it sounds like you ought to be making a lot more than $24,000. gentlemen, it was so fun to have you on. >> doing a good sales job. >> thanks. he's good, right? and the poker book i think is going to take off after this. thanks. coming up, our panel weighs in on the day that was and the day ahead nd. and the president of harley davidson is going to join me tuesday to talk hogs and earnings. we'll be back for more of today's action. financial noise

financial noise

with all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason

serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. final thoughts from our panel. the big news that broke 20 minutes ago that valeant and ackman teaming up to by allergan. >> i'm glad he's not doing on his own. >> they just do the financial stuff. >> bill is a smart guy. slow-footed management team. a lot of money is going to be made here. >> she'llia. >> valeant approached allergan

and bringing in ackman to bring in big guns and turn up the fire. >> that would explain bringing in an activist, right? >> this is just a hostile takeover or acquisition that happens to have financing from someone that happens to be an activist. >> melissa lee, you have got to be talking about this, right? >> yeah. we got the latest from david. but it's all about netflix at this hour. >> absolutely. that stock is so volatile and let's see if it gets more of a bang tomorrow morning if it still opens hard tomorrow. >> thanks for that. "fast money" starts right now. at this hour netflix conference call officially underway. we have news also. we will increase membership costs for new subscribers. plus bill ackman teaming up for a takeover of allergan making it the largest investment ever. all the dae