wednesday, nice day today. facebook into earnings this wednesday. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back tomorrow. meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starting right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i want to make you money. my job is not just to educate but to teach and coach you so call me at 800-743-cnbc. we live in a very confusing moment for the stock market. there's always someone yapping on tv or the paper or the internet attempting you to do the exact opposite of what you should be doing and they tell

you with incredible conviction. sometimes they sound super intelligent, much smarter than i sound, right? let's face that. here on "mad money" we're not about sounding smart. if we were i probably wouldn't have so many sound effects. we're about trying to get it right, what to buy, what to sell, what direction the market is headed. you get these right and it's a heck of a lot easier to make money in any market. in my 30 years i have to tell you that the easiest way to get it right is by working hard and being as rigorous as possible. there's no trick. there's five simple rules that will make you a millionaire. that's hog wash. but if you do the work and practice analytics, you might just become a better investor. regular viewers are probably aware that i've been running my own charitable trust with the

help of my research director and cnbc contributor. we send out a bulletin of every trade we make before we make it which means i have years of documentation showing where i went wrong and where i went right. as part of the research for my latest book, get rich carefully, i went back on every single trade from the last five years to analyze what worked and what didn't. i got a treasure trove of valuable information. tonight i want to take you through some of the most important lessons i've picked up. before i get down to the details let me say that i advise you to do the same thing with your own trading history. you can learn a lot by systematically going over all of your past decisions. know yourself and you need not fear the result of 100 battles. let's get started. sometimes the best time to buy a

stock is right after the analysts cut their estimates for the underlying company. aren't we supposed to be buying surprises? one it best investments i ever made was back in march of 2009. when caterpillar had been going down and down and down for weeks on end as analysts all turned bearish. at once they took huge hits because orders seemed to be cancelled every single day. remember, this was the great recession. when caterpillar reported, the quarter turned out to be uglier than the analysts predicted, taking it down as much as 50 percent. can you imagine? but, and this is important. the stock barely reacted to the bad news, falling slightly and

stabilizing and returning to where it was when the hideous earnings announcement was issued. that is the classic sign that you are looking at a bottom. right then cat was streaming, look at me! look at me! all the bad news is out in me, the worst is over. sometimes the market will call the bottom for you and that's exactly in 2009 what happened with caterpillar. the stock barely batted an eye lash and the bottom was formed. we're used to buying when they go up, but when you think about it, it actually makes a lot of sense. you want to wait until a stock has been derisked and the bad news is baked into the share price and then it might lead to tremendous profits down the road.

stocks roared as business improved and the analysts raised their estimates from what was far too low. they all made a huge amount of money because they bought an estimate cut, not a boost but a cut because earnings had finally troughed. that's the key word. anybody could have caught this move after the hideous quarter and the last ba rage of estimate cuts. maybe some of you were saying okay, cramer, that was march of 2009. let me give you a more recent example. jpmorgan, when the incident back in the spring of 2012, the rogue trader who hid ever larger and larger losses? as the impact tried to get a handle, the stock went lower in sync with the estimate cuts. then it was reported losses might total as much as $9

billion from jpmorgan and several firms following the stocks slashed their estimates to match that "new york times" figure. jpmorgan stock didn't get hit on that last round. instead, it flat lined. and then it inched up ever so slightly when that news broke. again, just like with cat the stock was telling you that the estimates had come down too far. sure enough we learned that jpmorgan's losses were not $9 billion. it was $6 billion. and that was the moment you had to buy. the stock had been down to $31 over the previous month, and if you bought right after that last round of number cuts, the ones that failed to take the stock down, you caught an immense rally. 31 goes to 50 in a straight line over the next 12 months and that, my friends, is a 6 1% gain. here's the bottom line, you want the single most reliable sign that a stock is bottoming? wait for the moment when the

estimates are so low that they can finally at last be beaten. lucky for you the market will almost always tell you when that happens as we saw with jpmorgan and caterpillar. when it stock doesn't go lower that's the market screaming that a bottom is probably at hand. can i go to leo in louisiana, please? >> caller: i was appreciative to you. you helped me in the last couple years recoup the thousands so my so-called professional broker lost for me. >> thank you for those kind words. thank you. >> caller: you're also helping me make sure i have a fund set aside for my granddaughter's college. what is the deal with after hours trading? >> it's so often misdirection placed. it's a read option play. i feel very strongly that it's

just a fakeout, it's a wild west. i don't want you there. you can certainly do it but why trade on no information? that's just guessing. we don't guess on "mad money." thank you for those incredibly kind comments and i'm glad about your granddaughter and the trust. robin in california. >> caller: hi, jim. >> how are you? >> caller: fine, thank you. i am an obedient cramer gamer and i have a question about market limit orders. i used to buy on open orders and often found that the stocks i bought were higher than when i placed the order so i took your advice which i've heard you say to use limit orders. now i get it sometimes even a little less. i was wondering though, can i even improve on that? the brokerage firm i use has additional stuff like stop on quote, stop limit on quote and a trailing stop on close.

>> those are all tricks. any time you take it out of your own hands, any time you don't determine what price you want, you could be at the market's mercy. there are times when it doesn't matter and people are saying, jim, you're being too careful. can you be too careful when it comes to your money? that's the true sign of a bottom. "mad money" is back. we needed 30 new hires for our call center.

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>> everybody makes a mistake sometimes. that's classic advice from stock

sage otis redding. but if you want to become a great investor you don't just need to learn from your mistakes. you need to learn how to recognize what your mistakes actually are and by the same to token, you need to know what works. the thing about being human is we have a hard time acknowledging what's going on in in your haends. we're full of unconscious biases. but look, i'm not here to give you a psychology lesson on cognition. i'm here to be your investing coach. it's important to remember all this stuff 'em peer clee. i used to keep a box of trading tickets in my closet, musty box. i spent time scrutinizing the tickets looking for mistakes for patterns of wrongdoing that needed correcting and for patterns of success that needed

repeati repeating. these days i don't have a box but we keep track of all my trades and my bulletins explaining my reasoning for buying or selling a stock during that period. i analyzed the last five years of my trades as part of my research forget rich carefully, my latest book. i approached this exercise im peer clee because the numbers when tallied don't lie. what did they teach us? i've got another counter intu sieve lesson for you. stop worrying. we're all conditioned to believe that when a company issues stock it's bad news. when a company does a secondary it tends to weigh on the stock for a time. that is also a terrible mistake. even after the big rate raise in 2013, companies derisk their enterprises. that's why these deals are worth

running to, not from. for example, the real estate investment trust deals have worked fabulously. the money is used to pay down debt. the money saved on these payments fall straight to the bottom line allowing analysts to raise the estimates. of course, stocks go up after the raise. second the companies use stock to expand their businesses and that almost always produces a nice move up in the share price. the capital might allow them to buy more properties which leads to higher dividends down the road. you can find these deals in all sorts of companies that were hit hard by the housing crash and are now snapping back. think about the mortgage insurance companies. that's a group that was pretty much left for dead, right? the capital rised by their secondary allowed them to write

new policies on new homes. in 2013 i told you to buy the stock on the offering or ahead of the deal. i didn't even want you to wait. i caught flack for that recommendation as many people assumed that it signalled a top, not an opportunity. there were plenty of institutions that were chopping at the bit because they realized if the company got its hands on more capital, it could flourish. that's why you had to take action as soon as the deal was announced. it was $8 in late february and two months later it was $12. when you see these kinds of deals you need to take bold action immediately. the opportunity will not last long if you wait. there's another kind of secondary that you should jump all over, particularly the oil and gas pipeline players that are issuing stock to finance their expansion plans across the country with pipe lines that are needed so they can move oil and

gas from texas, colorado, west virginia, ohio and pennsylvania to the rest of the nation. they're the best and cheapest way to transport oil and gas. construction pipe lines are expensive and the companies need to raise cash in the establishing. mark west, mwe, they are the best of the players and they have become serial issuers of equity and the deals almost all work. i have to warn you that these limited partnerships are super high yielders and that can be dangerous stocks and bonds tr becoming more competitive. however, if we're in a moment where rates are stable you should jump all over these pipe lines. they meet the demand from the explosion of oil and gas in this country and more capacity means more dividends down the road. keep an eye out for secondaries that are what's known as deep until hole. it means they're being sold at

dramatically lower prices than when the deal was announced. for example in 2013 when social media was trading at 246 the company announced it wanted to sell a billion dollars of stock. linked in said it was willing to sell the shares well below the deal. you got the word. we said it on the show, too. buyers lined up to get a piece of the deal. soon after they sold 4 million shares at 223. it was a good deal for all involved. best of all, the stock immediately traded right back to where it had been before the secondary was announced. you only get these secondaries from full service brokers. you have to do business with them as their large corporate clients like to do these sorts of deals with their investment bankers who are part of full service brokers. when you see these deals they're almost always worth it. we've reached a moment when

private -- in the past i've tended to shy away from these companies for fear that the private equity firms knew something we didn't and the stocks were about to get clobbered. a lot of things have changed. some of these firms often have high levels of debt left over from before the federal reserve cut interest rates and have been able to refinance at lower rates. again refinancing at lower rates means an immediate boost the earnings. we've seen deals at dollar general. here is the bottom line. forget the conventional wisdom that says secondary stock offering always means the company is in trouble. there are many cases where secondaries can make fabulous buying opportunities like when companies use the money to retire or refinance their higher interest rate debtor when master limited partnerships raise money to expand or secondaries from newly public private equity backed names or when you get a deep in the whole deal where the

price is too good to ignore. mitch in california. >> caller: how are you doing? >> good. >> caller: my question is regarding options trading. i'm interested in adding options trade tog my investment strategy and i want to know how important it is to implement spreads and what are the indicators to look for? >> in the book i wrote called getting back to even i have 100 pages that tell you exactly what to do in those kinds of strategies. in my book real money i talk about the options if you have never done them. in getting back to even i talk about the sophisticated strategies that you want to adopt. tony in california. >> caller: this is tony from california. >> okay. >> caller: my question is not about any one company. it's more like what master card did for its long-time shareholders and with the splits. i was wondering why other companies don't do that more

often. >> two words. warren and buffett. he decided not to split his stock. when he did that people decided we knows more than we do and if he's not going to split we're not going to split. believe it or not they said we're not going to split and that stock is up big and it would probably be much more. they said we got to make our stock more accessible to retail and let's split it. a lot of people don't want to go against the rigor that's warren buffett. john. >> caller: beautiful cramer from sweet virginia. >> what's up? >> here's the question. i have been very fortunate thanks to you and i've done my research and your crack staff. i'm back to even. i retired at 62. i have a portfolio that i'm really pleased with. now my question is, how do i --

in retirement, how doi iz prote it? i don't feel like i need to amass it, but protect it. i've been doing my homework and i came up with two options and i want to get your read on them. one of them is these bond funds that are paying seven and three fourths. there are a few bonds in there but there's a lot of derivatives and other stuff. that's one option, these bond funds with a monthly payout which will help my income flow. the second is these life insurance products that cap the downside and the upside so you really can never lose your portfolio but you can be limited to one percent one year and 16 percent -- >> i think that you should try to find yourself a bond fund that's very short term right now

because interest rates are going to go higher and you're going to be able to lock in some good cds. i think you're way too young for that strategy but i have to ex seed to the wishes who call. what we can learn from our mistakes, a secondary doesn't mean that a company is in big trouble. there are many that i want you in on and some have been unbelievable to make a lot of money with. after the break i'll try to make you more money.

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♪ daddy! [ male announcer ] you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen. zillow. improving everything from booking to baggage claim. we're raising the bar on flying and tomorrow we'll raise it yet again. >> if ever there was a musician who understood the stock market it was kenny rogers. i'm not being glib. you got to know when to hold them and when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run. if you are reviewing the last five years of trades made by my charitable trust you can follow along, i've got some suggestions for when you should fold them if not walk away from your

positions or even run. before i get there let me remind you i'm not just blowing smoke. i'm not sharing my opinions. you know the saying, opinions are like something unspeakable. everyone has them and they all stink. i'm sharing my imperial research into what works and what doesn't, research in writing get rich carefully. so in the spirit of the gamleer, i need to tell you when it comes to picking stocks, cash is not always king. in fact, if you buy a stock just because it's sitting on a mound of cash, you could get crushed. think about it. what dissysco, microsoft, oracle and intel have in common? people are buying stocks at very high levels because that had so much cash on their books. you heard people say this or that stock has so much in kark and it's cheap. must be bought. as if cash per se is somehow a

bullish thing. maybe in a high interest rate environment it might be good because companies get extra income, but unless rates are high, cash by itself actually means very little. what really matters is how companies put that cash to work. sure they can give you nice dividends but those yields haven't met much in terms of a floor. these titans have bought back a lot of stock and bought it back badly. you can buy stock badly, often too high. they buy their own stock at any height, at any time. in short, sysco, microsoft, oracle and intel may have a lot of cash but that's been wasted on undisciplined buy backs and when you see a company doing that, time to walk away. here's what you might not know,

it's called windham worldwide run by one of the most shareholder friendly people today. most of the ceos seem frozen and unwilling to step in to take advantage of the weakness that's market driven, not windham driven, even though the declines are no the stock specific. windham ratchets up dividends more than expected every year. if a i find that refreshing. he doesn't sit on it and do nothing. no, holmes is part of a new breed of executives. he wants to fulfill his end of the social compact with shareholders. stick with him and you don't rent stock. you own stock. in return, he makes sure you get

your cut of the business. he grows that business as fast as he can. he's someone who understands that the stock price going higher is very important and recognizes that it's part of his job to figure out the best way to make that happen. let me tell you about another sign you should fold on a stock and leave the table. if you own shares in a company that starts blaming customers for poor performance, it's time to walk away. i learned this lesson the hard way. when i decided to buy juniper networks back in 2012. it was trading in the low 40s when it had its first short fall. at the time the company blamed nameless japanese customers for lack of orders. i thought the explanation was plausible. they were users of juniper's products and the company and the

country both got hit by the tsunami, the puck seema nuclear disaster. i stuck with them because the company had a ton of cash. it was clear europe had a lot of problems and the u.s. government had been a big juniper customer. it wasn't until the stock dropped to the 20s, come on now you're in half, that i realized juniper's blame the customer act was a lenient alibi. they were taking market shares the whole time. that was then, this is now. at that point it was happening. the customers were sitting on their hands. they were buying elsewhere. which i didn't realize until we dug into sysco's quarters, not juniper's. the information was there to be had but only from a competitor,

not from juniper itself. there's a pretty simple moral. when the company blames the customer, check to see whether the customer isn't still buying except from a different vender. when a company is sitting on a mountain of cash and not doing anything with it beyond wild undisciplined buy backs, that's a stock you do not want to own. when a company starts blaming the customers for short falls like juniper did, always be skeptical. those customers may simply be giving their business to another player. larry in massachusetts. >> caller: to prepare us for the next earning season, you hate companies that don't prewarn about bad news and chide those who don't tell a downbeat story. since the headline number is often misleading, could you list some of the buzz words we should look for to sniff out a wall of shamer versus a conservative

overachiever. >> you actually want to see right upfront where they said listen, it was a bad quarter. up want to hear someone say a bad quarter is a bad quarter. if it wasn't bad, go right to the numbers and give us an outlook. it should conclude what you think the forecast is going to be for this quarter and next year. it should be reasonable. if you want to raise the forecast don't go nuts but show us conviction that businesses going to be better next year or shut up. let's go to tony in maryland. >> caller: jim, thank you for taking my call. i would like to know how can i identify a bubble stock and if i'm positioned in one, how can i strategically plan my exit? >> i like to own -- if i'm going to own a stock that you kaubl bubble stock i would participate in the downside. it's not defined by the four walls of earnings per share. it's revenues or some other way to measure things.

i like earnings per share and accept that when i'm not there i'm in the bubble. it can be played. can i go to ian in new york. >> caller: hi, jim. thank you for all that you do. >> you're terrific, thank you. >> caller: i own goldman sachs and qualcomm and i believe in their stories. what specific percentage of decline in a stock would cause you to automatically pull the trigger? >> it's always based on the fundamentals. when i was a trader i used to think down five percent i got to go. i don't want to have it go against me. these days i'm not in a hedge fund. if i do the homework and the stocks goes down i'm drawn to that decline, not against it. i'm not saying you should chase bubbles but if you are going to do it, do it with deep in the

money calls. it's not my thing. as kenny rogers tells us, you got to know when to hold them and when to fold them. be ware of companies that blame the customer. stay with cramer.

>> a huge part of this business can be boiled down to a simple thing, figuring out where a stock is headed. that isn't always easy. as i'm constantly telling you most stocks most of the time trade on earnings per share numbers. when the earnings are headed lower so is the stock and when the earnings are higher the stock rallies. of course, i said most, most

stocks, most of the time. for some industries earnings are not the most important metric. if that's the only thing you're watching, you could end up being clobbered and missing fabulous opportunities. that's why you need to keep track of the key metrics. for example, when it comes to oil companies, production growth, not earnings is the key. for tech stocks it's the average selling price of their products, not the earnings. in these two sectors this is more important than anything. let me give you a case study. where we repeatedly beat earnings but the stock went down because of the production short falls. if devin would have reported lower earnings, the stock would have rallied. i know that because my

charitable trust owned chevron at the time. it posted superior production growth versus what people were looking for and its pierce. it's no wonder devin is one of the worst performing equities. it's been undermanaged for a long time now. i totally missed the bottom in micron, the semiconductor company that makes memory chips back in 2012 because i wasn't paying close enough attention to the real key. when the company reported a terrible earnings number i thought who cares. then the stock jumped. what did i miss? derabs. deram pricing. most basic chip in the food chain and the bread and butter had a bump up in their selling prices during the quarter, not down, but bump up. that was extraordinary and something no one expected. it happened because the business has been so horrible for so long, many companies have thrown up their hands and given up.

supply had been a rarity in this business. they went on to by a failing competitor and it has been off the to the races ever since from december 2012 to december 2013 triple. one more situation you need to be aware of, a metric that might not seem to be important but is actually all that matters. when a company is based in the united states all we care about is emerging markets. one of my best buys ever was picking up taco bell and pizza hut but all of a sudden sales declined because of a kitchen scandal. the growth for this american company is in china so when the chinese division had a short fall, even though the rest of the company did well, the estimates were beaten and went down. soon after the company demonstrated they can turn it around. that involved heavy spending to

promote kfc. eps coming down. no matter, even though the earnings were about to get hurt, you had to buy the stocks on that earnings short fall. chinese business began to turn around because of the promotion and the stock headed right back to its 52-week high. in short, as much as we like to keep things simple, sometimes the truly important metric can elude us if we don't keep our eyes on the ball. let's not kid ourselves, with most stocks the earnings per share is the key metric. there have been endless criticisms about how the averages have rally on bottom line numbers without any real revenue growth. i am telling you that analysis was and is absurd. anyone who waited for revenue growth to kick in missed the whole move. these so-called experts think they're being careful but they're actually being reckless and have kept you out of some of

the best stocks out there. the earnings are not always all important. in some sectors like tech and oils, not to mention u.s. companies, there are key metrics that matter more than earnings and that's what you should watch. for the bulk of the market, nothing is more important than beating the earnings per share estimates. stick with cramer. ♪

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>> if there's one lesson i've learned from viewing all my trades from my trust, all the ones for the last five years, actually there are 14 of them in get rich carefully. when you have a core holding in your portfolio, a high quality stock with terrific prospects that you want to own for the long haul, don't sell at the first gain or the first sign of turbulence. if you really have a conviction in a stock, you do need to let it ride. let me put this in sports terms because a lot of people will understand this. when a football team wants to keep a football player, they name him a franchise player. that means he can't be traded. i wish i had a franchise player in a charitable trust. we say we want to own it thick or thin. so often we don't follow through with that. it's almost always a big mistake. the temptation to gain is so palpable and it can take every fiber of your being to fight against it. it's such a difficult task to keep a fabulous stock riding

because you never want a gain to turn into a loss. when i first penned that rule ten years ago, i was talking about trading wins, not investing gains. if you own a stock and think it will go up for the next few years, then by all means, do your best to make it a franchise player. stick to the nontrade label on it. you won't regret it. all better off if the company starts deteriorating. then you must immediately sell. that's really the only case where you should rid yourself of a core holding. or i suspect you'll leave an enormous amount of money on the table. stop giving it away, please. hold out for better prices. if it comes down below your cost prices, buy more. i'm crystal clear on this. when we own a stock that's undervalued, i have to do everything i cannot to take the gain and eliminate it.

that disparity between what it's trading at and really worth, got to let it perk late. sure i'm willing to part with some of my positions but it's vital that you leave enough in your portfolio. we rate stocks from one to four every week and the ones are meant to be core positions, franchise players. they're supposed to be hall lowed ground. we want to get as many shares as we want. as i look at the bulletins, it's unnerving to see how many of these, the ones we sold because of some short term market turbulence only for the stocks to roar ahead after i sold them. core position is what it says. it's something integral to your portfolio. i know if we had been able to hold onto more core positions for the trust we would have been able to donate a heck of a lot more to charity than the $1.8 million since i started this project. core holdings are called that

for a reason. resist the urge to sell your franchise players. the only time it makes sense to blow out of a core holding is if the fundamentals take a nose dive. you need to let these winners ride. only trimming your position somewhat to keep it from getting too oversized versus the rest of your portfolio. "mad money" is back after this break. ♪ ♪ ♪

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>> i got to get to the tweets you've been sending me @jim cramer. the first one says how certain is your exit strategy before you buy a stock? if it is a trade i have a catalyst. when the catalyst comes, no matter what i sell the stock. if it's an investment my exit strategy is multi-year, particularly if i sign it as a franchise player, meaning a number one. you can read all about how i grade things and price targets

on our weekly bulletin at the end. two, now let's go to a tweet from andy who asks best piece of advice you've ever gotten. my best piece of advice was from a friend jack shepherd who told me they don't all go up at twuns. i use today get upset when i had stock that went down on an up day. then he told me i was driving him crazy. keep that in mind when you have a bad position. maybe the others are good. then, jim, are you a fan of selling puts? no. i think it's idiotic when you sell a put you have unlimited downside and limited upside. what kind of possible dock amamie strategy is that. when i was in an '87 trash the people who did that got wiped out. our next tweet says, jim, when

you have a price target what is the time of fruition? i just want to own it and if the story keeps checking out i will stay in it. if the story starts getting worse i will go. our next question, my 4-year-old son gets excited when i turn to @"mad money" at jim cramer. hopefully this stock will stick with him. i'm a huge believer if you get people in early they can make mistakes. let's take a tweet from barney who asks is a buy order treated differently from a covered short order? what matters is what your broker does. if your broker has a different type, a type that is for short and type for long, then you have to designate. i don't know what your broker has. let's go to katie who asked me the following, thanks for everything you do for us home

gamers, love the show. you're very sweet. i do pour my heart and soul into this. up next, how is the little guy supposed to get in on an ipo? it is up to the brokers, guys. i know it seems unfair. it's the way it's been and i don't think you can buck the trend. this is something for good clients and if you are not a good client, it's a fact of life. life is unfair. stick with cramer. at your ford dealer think? they think about tires. and what they've been through lately. polar vortexes, road construction, and gaping potholes. so with all that behind you, you might want to make sure you're safe and in control. ford technicians are ready to find the right tires for your vehicle.

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>> i'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i'll see you next time.

>> narrator: in this episode of "american greed"... dr. mark weinberger, the self-proclaimed "nose doctor" has it all and he's not afraid to flaunt it. >> he had to be the big shot. he had to be different from everyone else. >> narrator: but inside the weinberger sinus clinic, all is not what it seems. >> all he did was bore two holes in my skull. >> i found it pretty appalling. he was basically cheating the patients and cheating the system. >> narrator: and when lawsuits threaten the empire he's built, the nose doctor heads for the hills.