tv Fast Money CNBC May 1, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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the consumer has pressure to keep pricing down. >> you've got to open a vegetarian restaurant. >> i was going to say. >> salad for dinner. >> that won't help. >> thanks for joining us today. it was fun. >> "fast money" coming up in a few seconds here. >> thanks a lot. start with breaking news here. linkedin's conference call right now. we're following that and a number of other big earnings movers. plus the stock closing down more than 1%. found out what departures would make our traders change out their portfolios. our traders are dan, jonathan, and guy. and karen. a little bit of a reversal. dan, what did you make of this? >> the expectations were not high. some of the research i read suggested that they were going to give conservative guidance.
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the fact they came in line and gave the guidance and the stock is trading down should be troubling for the sector. i sound like a broken record here. the stock is down 4% from the all-time highs. we have been talking about high fliers crashing in the couple months. this stock has been crashing since last september. i think it's troubling and you have to watch levels on the downside. it's got to hold that 150 level. >> it's interesting to see that yelp was enough to cause a mini rally we saw across the board including linkedin. >> i think dan is going to wind up being right. the stock has sold off enough. the quarter was decent enough where you could see a move, up to 68. it didn't get there. i think it got close. 66.5. that's the point of the show. we'll see from here.
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i think there might be a little up side here. you had a big volume today. this big move to the upside and we'll see what happens. i'm sort of -- i find myself more in dance camp after today than i was yesterday. >> international is about 40% based on these numbers we're seeing here. and for linkedin and not yelp. i like the stock after that significant correction that you mentioned, dan. i believe that these numbers were strong across the board. the guidance was indeed weak but i like most of what i saw here including the 300 million members now for the site. people were looking for about 275 million. came out above that number. i haven't seen the break down but i like the quarter and what they've said with the expansion in china, i like this. >> how do you manage this with
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the stock down 3.25%. >> it would need to drop significantly further from here before i would have to buy more stock. >> if it didn't rally here, i can't imagine it's going up any time soon. >> it's 143 just two days ago. today it was pushing 160. >> let's bring in managing director michael gram. what is in your opinion causing the stock to go lower. it looks like they look pretty much in line, the numbers. >> i have to agree with the idea that it was a solid quarter. the core business which is talent solutions grew 50%. they grew by about 42% in the revenue and that business by 50%. they're signing up more customers and the revenue getting from the customers going up. the stock is down a bit.
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as q2 guidance is below where consensus was. they did raise the full year outlook and that should help the stock over the course of the next bit here. >> i think you have a $250 target. how do you get there? >> yeah. i use a discounted cash flow analysis to get to my price targets and in linkedin's case the things that helps us get to a higher value than where the stock is today is they have got a long runway for growth. they have over 300 million members that is a really solid asset and no company going to be able to develop an asset like that. it's like facebook's member base or googles search engine. really hard to replicate. so we think the safety net around their growth trajectory is good for a long time. that's why we have such a high price tar get. >> linkedin was a name i liked for a long time but then i
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finally threw in the towel as well. the quarters we have seen before. how do you wrap your head around the fact this was a $260 stock in the fall last year and sold off since with this -- by and large similar quarters that we're seeing now? >> you have had the same story playing over and over in the sector. stocks. look at amazon down by 1/3 almost from its highs. you know, to be honest getting expensive. we had a dig deal going on in the internet sector. i think a lot of the big cap companies including linkedin have reported pretty decent numbers. it's a company with a $2 billion revenue rate that just grew their core business 50%. as investors start to lose the fear and start to get more comfortable trying to look for growth in a global economy that doesn't offer that many pockets
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of growth. i think they'll come back to stocks like linkedin. it might take a while. >> you're going to tell clients that you think it was a solid quarter and to buy the stock? >> absolutely. i think they did a good job this quarter. >> great to have you with us. what would you do tomorrow? >> i don't like his comparison to amazon. it's a company that's bigger. linkedin is a $20 billion company. we said this about yelp. yes, they're growing at 40%, 50%. but that's based on -- if you're valuing these companies the way you're valuing them, people will not be valuing these at 50 times the sales is that correct? >> definitely. what happens in the interim, i don't know. >> isn't it safe to say the fever is broken here? >> yeah. >> we saw this in apple two years ago. the fever broke about the stock and underperformed for a long time. and it's so ridiculously
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expensive. >> this stock is down 40% from its high. >> what doc said, if this stock can bounce -- when the after markets stop -- it's all about what it does tomorrow and on monday. if it can't start to bounce you don't get in the way. >> two ceos announcing their plans today. replacing mark field at the helm. and replacing taco bell's ceo. going up 90% since september of 2006 and yum brands is up 689%. clearly leaders can make a difference and we certainly
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encounter them from time to time. quickly in terms of ford and yum, do these departures your views of the stock? >> particularly on the ford side, no. i think that ceos are important during a crisis and i think that they didn't end up needing money, they were the only one. that was huge. but now i think it's a different -- we're in a different phase and i think the bench is deep, so no. >> yum brands. >> i think yum more so than ford. ford, five or six years ago, it's a huge deal if millali would step down. yum is at a different point in their growth where ceo change can have an effect. is if you take missteps with this lofty valuation you can run into trouble. >> which stocks would you actually either buy or sell on a ceo change since they can make a big difference? dan? >> cysco is one and i guess i
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would use microsoft since bomber stepped down. the choice they made. they looked externally and chose somebody internally. the stocks held in there. the sentiment was so poor regarding the past management. the guy has done a nice job. they have had a ton of restructuring. the stock has massively underperformed. the s&p's, the low from 2009. >> so they booted chambers, you might buy? this is a well-run company. but i think if you're a long term shareholder you're probably disappointed. >> a lot of ceos would be happy to be in this seat that shelly is in. she's the ceo. but the problem is here that since december of 2012 she has grossly underperformed big
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competitors like temper pedic, sealy. temper sealy is up 85%. you missed a significant move. i think if she would be pushed out, i think this is a stock you buy because i think they have a fantastic product and i think the way they sell it is ingenious, i don't know why it's not better run. >> so two buying the stock if the ceo gets booted. what do you say? >> i try to think of the company that has the ceo most integral to the story. i came up with elan musk. i cannot imagine a ceo more tied to the story. more valuable to the name than musk. if i were long which i am not, i would have to be a seller on his leaving. someone might counter and say
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what about steve jobs. >> and life goes on. >> the difference being the market knew for several years that steve jobs was going to be leaving. he took two leaves of absences. his health was known to be an issue for a long time. that's not a comparable story. i'm going to go with tesla, musk. >> for the same reasons karen said i look for the ceo and i think hastings with netflix is a good examplement . he's been there since the '90s. you can see the performance under his tenure up some 12%. i think without one misstep a few years ago, he's been flawless in his execution. i think if he stepped away you would be walking in some pretty big shoes. >> expedia, we're watching that move lower.
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let's get to dom with the story. we have got expedia share down about 2.3%. this as it sold more hotel stays and airline tickets. gross bookings is one metric that investors look at. increased 29%. that stock was a volatile trade but now down marginally. off of session highs $17.15 last trade. back over to you. >> what's the trade here? >> i think the trade is still price line and not expedia. because i think priceline with booking.com and with what's going on over in europe there's going to be even more focus into this heavier travel season, spring into summer and i think that's going to be good for priceline. this isn't much of a selloff. to see expedia down a little. it's not down enough to get me excited about buying it.
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we have gone win resorts and western union reporting earnings. kicking off with wynn shares. >> very strong quarter. the ceo saying that he thinks kotai will continue to hold and reporting earnings up 14% year over year. the that's why the stock is up nicely in the post. >> would you buy? i am in. believe it or not, i'm not going to say i would buy more tomorrow. i'm probably going to take profits tomorrow. >> they guided up from the year. this is a situation people are looking hard at valuations. not one of the most expensive stocks. it's pretty useful.
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sort of service. also probably a take-over candidate given the small side of its market cap. down 25% from the recent highs. i think it has to get washed out. >> outerwall. >> this is a name we own. some of the other strategies they have been doing to contain costs and not open new lines of business. up for the year. and a new lower share counts, to make money, i'm going to hang on to it. >> western union, guy. >> guidance was okay. revenue slight miss. but what struck me was depending what business segment you look at, operating margins were down. it's not an expensive stock. earnings continues to be solid they gave decent guidance.
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the short interest is what counts. what happens? i think it bounce from the $16 level or so to the high 16s maybe even $17.25. i think looking for a short covering bounce. >> alibaba in talks. could this be part of the reason the chinese has done done its ipo filing yet? dan, you're angered. >> i'm not angered. there's a lot of conflicts of interest. every bank wants to get a piece of this thing. supposed to be the biggest deal ever. i'm surprised the financial press doesn't ask the questions. back in 2011 alibaba, their then ceo and chairman, he spun out. to a subsidiary outside the corporate entity. he did not tell yahoo.
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they did an agreement in the summer of 2011 that if there was a liquidity event, this is a fast-growing payments business in china, that they would pay between $2 billion and $6 billion to the parent, to alibaba. now the wall street journals says maybe alibaba may be trying to get this thing back. we thought to avoid certain regulatory issues in china. regarding foreign ownership of a financial institution. >> isn't it interesting they're going to go public in the u.s. but trying to buy alipay back. what's going on here? that's it. >> well, if the reasoning was to get around this whole regulation about a foreign body owning a financial institution, have the rules changed since? i don't think they changed. >> corporate governance. jack owns 76%. owns 7% of aliba.
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now do you think that alipay is going to get sold back for a dime less than $6 billion. listen, tweet us and tell us what you think. no one will answer the question. >> his stake in alipay is bigger than alibaba. to sell as much as possible, right? >> it continues to come back to what's the deal with yahoo and why has it been trading so lousy since january. it's almost you're getting yahoo for free in my opinion with the stock at 36.5. assuming it comes in at 150 billion to 175 billion. i think the play is yahoo. i know karen plays it via soft bank though.
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>> one could make the case that cleaning up the alipay situation would help alibaba trade that much better and that would be more dollars to him. >> in the long run. >> in the long run, right. >> yes. >> so it is a possibility. dan doesn't like to think that's possible. >> no one is asking the question. i haven't heard any intelligent questions or answers about it. everyone was convinced they were going to file this s1 last week. now we're hearing next week. we just had that pool -- >> do you think the demand for the alibaba ipo is going to be less because of this? >> i think it could be. if there's proven that there's opaque dealings -- this is a situation where global investors are going to be buying into the biggest ipo ever that has multiple affiliates in china. >> coming up, over the past few months it's been a series of
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with all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments.
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the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. another dose another dose of negative headlines for the ipo market that box is delaying its ipo. the cloud stock is a reason for pushing back its offering. not surprising when you take a look at the declines across the board. >> yeah. that's why i jumped into some of the space in and out lately. but i think it could continue to have some problems, this space
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in particular. because you spoke of the box being pulled, if you will. >> uh-huh. >> and there are a lot of people questioning whether or not valuations of certain ones of these stocks have gotten ahead of themselves. if they can't find enough folks to buy them, i think that's bad for the whole sector. >> which names though? give us names. >> in particular, vmw. emc. i like the data storage side that people do. i think those two i did buy but didn't hold them very long. >> we talked about crm. here's a stock closed up less than 2. i think the price action is really bad in these. service opened down in the day. it was near those recent lows and rip it back up and closes badly. this is not good price action.
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>> aig, first major insurance company to compensate companies for strikes that cause property damage and bodily harm. tracy, great to have you with uu us. >> you think of stolen passwords and things like that. >> absolutely. cyber edge pc was a next necessary step in cyber insurance. the insurance market has been focused on providing insurance coverage to respond to the data breach which is the theft of social security numbers. but it could also cause bodily harm and personal injure. companies would look at their primary traditional insurance policies historicalically but t
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were not designed to cover cyber risk. that's traditional policies are starting to exclude coverage from those policies by excluding cyber attacks, exclusions for data. this is now an emerging risk that organizations need to be concerned about. >> let's just take as an example. causing damage to a knew collar facility, et cetera, et cetera. obvious physical damage there. traditional -- they had insurance. but a traditional policy would not cover that even though it was physical damage? >> on a property policy there may be some ambiguity as to whether or not it's covered. where they don't they don't specifically state they're covering cyber attacks. this is becoming it's own category of risk. >> how do you assess what the
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potential damage could be? >> well, we have been underwriting property damage at aig for decades and a leader in cyber risk since 1999. we're combining expertise of those areas and the damage that can be caused through a cyber attack could be similar to the damage caused other ways. we're able to evaluate that based on past experience. >> are there going to be things like cad bombs? >> this is an evolving space and continuing to develop. so it's possible that we'll see that kind of develop. >> thanks for coming by. tracy of aig. guy, i mean -- >> it's interesting. how do you assess the damage -- a company gets hacked let's say. nothing necessarily goes wrong but the company's reputation is marred and people stop shopping at target for example. >> this is physical damage. >> there are other damages
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involved as well. i would imagine. i don't know that gets played into this. it's an interesting space. >> but even on the physical damage front it's hard to assess what can happen with the cyber -- >> is there a cap on these insurance policies? >> sure. well, we're providing up to $100 million in capacity which is a significant limit for the insurance market. what normally happens is as customers show the demand for this product which they have been asking for this coverage, other carriers will come into the space and companies will be able to buy larger limit if they believe these the type of exposure they have. >> thanks again. linkedin conference call when we come back. plus dr. jay will reveal which name stay tuned.
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sector. toyota and nissan seeing double digit gains. gm, a bumpy road of 2.6 million recalls due to a faulty reswitch. let's bring in blue book's president. what happened with ford here? you would think that maybe they could take a little bit of share given the gm recall. >> you would think that. but ford had some competitive segments they rely on, mainly in the mid size vehicle. the cuv and small vehicle. while they did take a blip in terms of their sales, we expect them to turn it around. they have got 23 million new products. we expect this to turn itself around. >> could people be waiting for the new product to come online. >> we see that and one of the interesting things of general motors is we haven't seen a decline in retail sales.
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general motors was up with the retail sales. consumers are seeming to ignore a lot of the noise out in the marketplace from a recall perspective. we did some research on kelly where less than 5% of all new car shoppers said that a recall with general motors would take a general motors vehicle off their shopping list. consumers don't seem to be concerned with it. >> over the last couple years the people that owned cars and fleet was getting up there in age. they had to buy cars whether they wanted to or not. you saw those in the numbers. my pushback would be how long do people own their cars for now and haven't those sales been done already? what's the next big cycle if people do own their cars for extended periods of time? >> i don't see it that way. the reason, is because when you look at how the age of the fleet has been increasing, it's been increasing steadily since 2001.
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you saw a slight up-tick in 2009. i see that as a function of the overall product quality. i don't see that as folks waiting to get back into the market. right now is a good time for a consumer to by a vehicle. the product quality is better than it's ever been. they have more options than they ever had before. and buying a vehicle is incredibly affordable relative to the quality, the horsepower and safety the consumer gets. >> jared row, president of kelly blue book. karen, gm. >> i have been looking at it again. you know, these sales are going to be higher margin. i don't know if the street has said we know there's a big issue, we're going to ignore any giant charges they have. i'm starting to wonder if i should get back in. >> the argument he made, but you have been saying that since the model t was out.
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it's true, right? >> you were there, right? >> right. that's why i know. but it's true though. >> time for pops and drops. a drop for avon down 10%. >> avon is everywhere you don't want to be. russia, brazil. >> very a centric for you to say. >> the stocks lower, i don't think it's cheap. >> drop mww down 18%. >> the stock is lucky to be holding up 5. otherwise institutions would be dumping the stock. $4 and some odd cents was the 52 week low. >> t-mobile up 8%. >> they were looking for a
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900,000 number. sprint mentioned they are going to explore a deal possibly in june and july. this is one i don't think you want to chase on an up day. but if you can get it back toward the 25, 26 level that's where you get in for a deal. >> drop for walter energy down 4%. >> this is the octogon of death. >> is that worse? >> it's got to be worse. all i know is a 50% short interest and these folks have been raking it in. this company can't get out of its own way. you're talking about a market cap less than half a billion dollars. a few years ago they were talking about this being a takeover candidate. it's amazing how quickly it's turned. there'll be an opportunity to buy it but nothing indicates it's today or tomorrow. >> octogon of death. online retailer burger shoe
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serving up a savory new sneaker. packaged in a shoe box. the culinary kicks come in. retails for $135. available online starting may 3rd. they're ugly. go ahead. enjoy. enjoy. >> i mean -- >> not a collector probably. >> a collect of what? >> of sneakers. >> of something. >> the bad point about that is the song. if you can get an aerosmithdvd. this is at their greatest. and "dream on." forget about it. >> watching steel d. >> the stock got up 19 bucks and pulled back. they are buying calls but way
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out in time. it's not a short term trade. i'll define that as being the front two months. out there several months into the future. i like it it was very heavy and unusual activity and i like a couple other steel stocks as well. >> coming up linkedin moving lower. we talked to the ceo of the company that's rumored to be part of the iphone 6. that and much more coming up on "fast." sfoo [is engineered for comfort.hing that goes into a lennox system like parts that create your perfect temperature
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breaking out the news. but it's not alibi baba. >> it's arts and crafts retailers michael's stores. they planned an ipo for at least a couple of times. the most recent being in december of last year. they pulled that because of reorganization that happened last summer. they filed for a $500 million ipo. this stock will trade on the nasdaq with ticker mik. the lead underwriters are jpmorgan, chase, barkleys and
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deutsche bank. michael's looking to refile for an ipo. this time $500 million. listing in nasdaq under ticker mik. back to you. >> same ticker, mik. >> the circle of life. it becomes distressed and people buy and here we are. is this a sign of the top again? i don't know. this is a banker's dream. >> it is, right. and probably the same lead bankers in and out. linkedin conference call wrapping up. over to morgan with the latest. >> so it's all about growth. that's what many analysts are asking about. the ceo kicking off the call by saying the stronger than expected results were powered by member engagement. the professional networks are passed 300 million members in april. only 1/3 of that 100 million in
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the u.s. international expansion a big part of the call. especially china. saying he's very pleased with the progress there. another big subject. talent solutions which accounted for 58% of revenues. that's its recruiting platform for job hiring. here's what he said about the growth strategy there. >> we believe that linkedin is still in the early days of transforming the talent industry. in the coming years are focused on growing the business to the point in where linkedin powers all of our customer's highers. >> mobile growing fast for linkedin. will exceed half of linkedin's total traffic. also worth noting, total page views grew over 40% over last year and ceo saying the company hit an all-time high for page views per member.
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back to you. >> thanks so much for that. dr. j in term of managing the trade tomorrow, what do you do? >> it isn't gotten down to the point where it seems like it was a washout. if we get the turnover of shares that makes me excited about getting in, i think you can do it. you had it last week in twitter. twitter has been a decent buy on the bounce. i would wait for the same here. >> traders saw some bullish activity. dan has got today's option action. >> here's what we don't talk a lot about. but call activity was really hot. it was overall volume was five times the average daily volume. here's the stock that really out performs and up 50% of the stocks and this afternoon there
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was a buyer of the 20,000 of the may 17 calls. about $240,000 worth of premium. what's interesting about this call purchase, it doesn't catch an event. the break-even is up about 7% in the next two weeks on may 17th, expiration. but earnings are going to be -- q1 earnings are on may 22nd. when you see this unusualtivetiunusualtive ti -- activity you want to take a look. this is a two-year chart. the break-even is above the highs of the year and they go back to the two-year high which is what this line is. one of the thoughts is possibly that implied volatility. it's really at near the two-year low. this is a cheap way to either go up a long position or turn it around and actually protect yourself on the short side to basically get some protection on the chance of a breakout. >> more options action tomorrow
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at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. check out the website optionsaction.com. inside the devices you use every day. just released earnings after the bell. we have got an exclusive with the ceo after the break. plus one of our traders made a fast trade with google glass. he bought and sold it in less than two weeks. what happened? we'll tell you after this. [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. all on thinkorswim
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. a motion censor technology company inside a lot of gadgets to google glass to the nintendo wii. shares down. joining us is the ceo and president of invensense. part of the reason of the stocks decline is part of the fiscal thirst quarter. the eps line which is coming in about half or less of what analysts were expects on the
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street. what is behind this big first quarter short-fall? >> well, there's really nothing behind it other than the seas seasonality of the business we have. because of consumer dynamics. the stronger quarter is always september and december. and we have been talking to investors and analysts about that. and they -- i believe there was some expectation built out there ahead of that seasonal growth but we expect as we talk about it, that we expect this to be a phenomenal year. we have a lot of great technology and a clear market share lead that we're gaining. >> i want to get to that. but yes, it's a seasonally week period. it is for many semiconductor companies out there. but to come in and give guidance on eps which is half or less than what analysts are expecting, you would think that in analysts models you would understand this happens every
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year. are you saying the street got it completely wrong? >> part of it might be how the expectation was set up. i think we have been talking to the analysts about the investments that we're doing in r & d and a lot of the products we have. and some of the analysts might have modeled it differently than what we were guiding them to. at the end of the day, really nothing unusual happened with the business. we're really on track to gain market share and we're excited about it. we have to see where the numbers come in throughout the year. >> let's talk about what you talked about on the conference call. that is the inventory build for what -- as we understand some sort of big event in fiscal 15 which is this current year. what is that event? is that for a product that we do not know about yet? is it for your top customer samsung? or another customer? >> well, in general, what we are
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saying is quite a bit of growth throughout this year. what we decided to do is because we have had a seasonally weak quarter last couple of quarters, what we decided to do was build inventory opportunistly in products we feel are going to grow. these products are broad based. not just samsung. we have great opportunity in china. our market share has gone up in china, japan. really all over. we're building ahead of that to make sure we're prepared for it and not build up capacity as we go through the year. we want to make sure our capacity buildout is linearized. we're excited about the year. >> you mentioned samsung which is your biggest company. you mentioned china. you didn't mention a big phone launch in the united states. >> we have a stated policy not to talk about any product until it's either announced by our
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customers or torn down like some of the products we talked about. samsung, for example, galaxy -- before it was announced i tried to stay away from talking about any particular customer >> apple, iphone 6, yes, no? >> we're working very hard to get every customer, melissa. >> we're going to leave it there. the ceo of invensense. the stock down. this is a stock that was up 129%. >> we talked about this stock a while ago. the stock has rallied significantly since. how do you trade it now? traded down to 16 bucks at the end of last year and bounced. that's your level. i mean, your line of questioning was great. building that inventory for a reason. they're not just taking a shot. i think if it holds 16 given the short interest and the valuation
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is not stupid, i think it's worth a shot on the long side. >> we have been making a big deal when one of our traders bought google glass. but after fewer than two weeks. john sent it back. why? >> yeah i sent it back. the customer service at google was phenomenal. they were great. but the product stunk. i like to say the gl is silent in glass. these things were not good. it heats up on the side of your face. when it heats up, it shuts down. that's a big problem. you can only get 10 seconds worth of video. you have to wink or verbally tell it. >> so you look like you're making a pass at somebody every time. >> or you have to say take picture. i'm sure the next iteration will be much better. >> you're out. >> i'm out. >> coming right back. stay tuned. there's a saying around here,
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it. >> i ain't eating there but burger king. >> really? even without a tomato? >> no tomatoes ever. >> i'm melissa lee. see you back here. don't go anywhere. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friend, i'm trying to save you mono pep my aim is not just to entertain, but to teach. tweet me @jimcramer. what happens if safety is no longer safe? what happens when sellers stop pummeling the momentum stocks? well, then you get a day
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