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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 6, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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and i believe they're slipping. >> alibaba's ambition to expand into u.s. markets and how efforts on both sides of the pacific have fall tered. >> thank you all for being here. we're going to send it over to the "fast money" crew and let them help us go through these earnings and all the things happening with alibaba. >> breaking news. alibaba filing for its ipo moments ago. we are digging deeper. plus we have got someone who says the company is worth $195 billion and major earnings news. conference calls going on for disney, whole foods and grew upon. a number of the momentum movers. groupon. all falling in the after hour session. twitter, shares sinking today.
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allowing early investors to sell hundreds of millions of shares. our traders. tim, steve, karen and guy. tim what did you make of the filing? >> it's impressive to me. some of the metrics coming out. remember, a lot of people have very little information about this company. as i said, i have been involved in private transaction. so spv vehicles have been selling alibaba shares over the last couple months. they're going to be much more e restrictive. $100 billion is what i'm hearing. for a company and the valuation people put in this country for a people that has a potential that can dwarf amazon, i think the deal is going to go well. >> what is the exit strategy is one is in yahoo, guy, at this point now that alibaba filed?
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>> clearly, it's happened before i missed something. clearly i'm missing something now. even if it's $175 billion, yahoo should be worth -- should be trading north of $40. if this thing prints with a $200 billion print, that's $45 stock. i don't understand why -- it's traded so poorly recently and why it's not doing anything in the after hours. i don't think it's an exit strategy. i think it's an opportunity. >> i think what would make it -- what would make yahoo trade better if they would have a strategy of all of the proceeds of alibaba going to the shareholders. we don't know what they're going to do. okay, we need to understand how that money is going to be used. is it going to be used for great acquisitions. right now they're not giving yahoo the benefit of the doubt. >> are we to give them the benefit -- marissa meyers, ceo
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made 37 acquisitions since she became ceo. do you have faith she's going to deploy this capitol in a wise way? >> put it this way, my position, i'm 80% out of it. i'm long 20% just for the alibaba kicker. i think as guy pointed out, the $42, to $45 range, that's where the stock should be trading at. that's where i'm looking for it to pop to. that's exactly where it had problem in the past. this is what you have been waiting for. the closer we get to alibaba happening, the higher it goes. >> kayla what are the details. >> we just want to give you the latest rundown on what we know. first of all, no symbol, no exchange. no hint of timing on when the stock starts trading. you have been talking about that $1 billion place holder. that number will go up far higher than where it is right now. we do see six banks listed on the front. obviously they will get a small slice of fees because the
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competition was so fierce to get on this deal. alibaba has $5.5 billion in revenue for the one-year ended march 31st. 85% comes from china commerce. and this gross merchandise value which is $248 billion in the most recent year for alibaba. that is the amount that is bought and sold of goods on the alibaba. various platforms. a multiple of what amazon and ebay have done. $519 billion in payments processed on the ali-pay platform. i have been going through the risk factors and use of proceeds is another big sticking point. they'll be using it for general corporate purposes. it will be mostly shareholders selling stock. that's not the case. there been a portion that will be newly issued stock.
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another portion will be selling shareholders. we're getting a glimpse of who those shareholders are. yahoo owns 22.6%. jack ma owns 8.9% and joe tsai. we don't know which of these shareholders will be selling and we don't have the funds that have bought in, private equity funds that hold these shares and whether they will be selling. interesting note, melissa, 16 risk factors in this document relate to doing business in the people's republic of china and any change in government or economic policies could adversely affect the business. these are things you'll see with a mammoth company from china. that's going to be a big focus of the road show when investors
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have questions of how their calculating these revenues and looking for more clarity. >> kayla, we appreciate it. in terms of the scale of the numbers, that is the staggering thing about pouring through this filing. $240 billion in gmv. that dwarves what amazon does. >> it's massive. their version of black friday it's called singles day. it's 11/11 on the calender. it dwarfed it. this is what people should be expecting from this company. the risk factors, look, if you go through any perspective you're going to see risk factors longer than your arm. it's intended to be everything in the kitchen sirvnk. look at cena. a company seems to be under a significant amount of stress. we know the chinese government is going to have a bigger role
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in this company than the u.s. government has. should it trade at a premium. i don't know. depends on the growth. the growth should be far superior in the short run. >> of course, the benefit of alibaba is it's operating on its own turf. it's not the same when the chinese gets involved in a twitter or google. completely different story. >> totally. i just want to clarify. i don't think she was saying what kayla said. i don't know how to trade alibaba. people can push back on this. soft bank, karen is involved there. yahoo trading at 36.5, anything south of $40 to me is too cheap. >> i don't know where yahoo should trade. one of the reason is discount holding. the discount factor. unless they actually monetize the money i think that's what
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kayla was getting at. >> in the after hour session yahoo shares are trading higher at 1%. in terms of soft bank, where does soft bank stand now? is this factored into the shares or is there upside potential? >> not at a $200 billion valuation. soft bank, something way, way lower than that. >> let's bring in bob, the managing director. bob, i don't know if you have gotten a chance to look at the filing. what does this mean for yahoo? what do you think it will do with the stake? >> first of all, we upgraded the stock at $33 predicated on what we thought the value of alibaba, you're getting the core for free. like others sort of slow growers, you get to north of $40 target. that was our point. when you look at the volumes that alibaba is doing, if they bought ups and fedex, even they
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couldn't handle delivering all the packages. it's that big of a kedeal. we were over in china last month. when you start talking to the companies, you get involved in the scale. >> i think a lot of people are going to start wondering, does china has the infrastructure to handle the growth expected? >> you'll see some outsourcing to that. you also have deliveries on bicycles et cetera. the whole slew of ways to get there. >> let's talk about yahoo and the cash. obviously meyer is an inquisitive ceo. and visify, these are things most people haven't heard of. >> the big buy was tumbler for about $1 billion or so. of the 24%. she's only selling 9% they
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committed to. but of that money, they said they'll return a majority of it. so if you assume that's $4 billion or $5 billion, it still leaves you with a couple billion dollars more to do acquisitions with. speculating from a snapchat to a pi pintrist. >> the things you talked about here becomes an al ga bra problem for yahoo. if alibaba is $200 billion, what is yahoo's stock? you mentioned anywhere from $40 to $42. it's not there now. we somewhat know the one variable. why are they discounting yahoo so badly? >> a little bit is what do you do with that cash. a little bit is that 14% of the value. remember, we don't know what they're going to be doing with that. it sits on the balance sheet for a long time. the big question would be how big could alibaba get.
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we're talking about $200 billion. i have seen $250 billion out there. as well as 1,000 bet improvement in margins and also you talk numbers higher than that. >> yahoo shares so far up by 1.24% or so. bob, how much more do you need to know in order to say my price is too low, i need to move it? >> it's a good question. i have to go through the filing tonight to see the q1 numbers and that type of stuff. for yahoo we get numbers in arrears. we'll go through that and see what numbers we can get to. can you get to $300 billion or $250 billion and see what makes sense. >> this happens on a day when the internet stocks were hammered across the board, especially twitder. bob, we're going to keep you around. meantime, organic food goes bad. whole food gets hammered and finding out whether the zero
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. shares of whole foods
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plummeting after hours on earnings. let's check in with sara with the details. >> we're hearing from the ceo explaining the weakness especially in sales which came in at 4.5%. analysts were looking for 5.2%. he cited severe weather and problems with the calender, the easter quirking the calender. he did say value. this has been a focus in trying to convince its customers that it's not overpriced. trying to lower prices to appeal to a main stream crowd. the shares took a dive, almost 14%. the company lowered guidance for the year saying earnings per share set to be between 152 and 156 in total sales growth of 11%. it was the third time this company has lowered its estimates on earnings per share.
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that was a disappointment as well. as i was leaving the call, analysts were starting to ask questions of the ceo. jen morgan hammering management on the fact that competition is increasing and he was surprised to hear constructive tone from management given the fact that they have lowered their forecast for the year for the last few times given the fact that sales are way below that 8% growth that investors were getting used to. it will be an interesting call to see how management responds to some critical questions. obviously investors are not happy with the results. shares down down, melissa, 14% in the after-hours trade. >> and the shares open up here tomorrow. the that's a 52-week low on whole foods. competition also from walmart. everybody in their brother selling organics. >> and everybody in their brother in the sector complaining about the same things. the sector coming in was already -- they were giving you
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disappointing back drop for whole foods. consumers -- this is a consumer growth stock so to speak. valuation, 26 times, 30 times something like that, way too expensive. >> you mentioned before they came out with their own brand. kroger looking at buying assets from them as well. there was a lot of reaction from buyers to try to buy things at the discount. whole foods have been at a premium. just not going to come back. >> breaking news. groupon drops its earnings. dom. >> the conference call is still i don't know going. jason childs spoke about what happened in the quarter. they said they're focused on three things to help momentum get going again. reaccelerate the local business
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for groupon. meant to drive traffic to them. instead of getting an e-mail saying do you want organic foods, it will tell you you can go there and shop and find those items. that's a big deal for them. they want to improve margins in the goods business, mainly on the operating sides, that will help profitability for them and number three, is the rest of world business. outside the u.s. and north america. they want to gain positive momentum in latin america and asia pacific. they had 10 million application loads. that was a big deal from them. 54% of all global transactions are done on a mobile device. that's important because mobile customers typically engage more and spend more per transaction than nonmobile customers. they have seen 4% to 5% growth in that mobile. they will continue to expressly
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invest in building up that mobile franchise. the conference call ongoing. those are jason childs comments to me. groupon sales down negative 7%. back to you. >> let's go to our analysts here. tom who is on the fast line and bullish on this stock. what did you get wrong? >> clearly the sentiment on groupon is negative than the same groupon i'm looking at, what i saw is a continued business as a transition to the poll marketing model where consumers choose from 95 deals on the website versus on a e-mail. clearly this is a transition. 9% activity, that's a good
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number. i don't think the market is giving them enough credit. i'm confident you're going to see the domestic results improve as the year progresses. >> billings were up almost 30% year over year. they -- granted they had a loss but better than expected and revenues beat. i understand the valuation is rich here. but why is it just the space in general that's getting obliterated. >> i think you have to look at the categories. google scaled back its offers. amazon local is something but not something significant. what you're seeing is a company to position themselves in the next five years to a lot of other things. earlier this week they announced they're going to try to sell more bulk merchandise similar to what amazon is doing with its
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amazon pantry. if five years from now it's still a deal to get you to a restaurant, then i think they failed. but if they're selling merchandise in other things, then i think there's a real opportunity here. >> tom, it sounds like your willing to forgive the company. your price target, $17 which is quite a ways from what it is now. what's your inclination to say this is an amazing opportunity to get in on a stock at 7 bucks a share outside of $10 from here or are you inclined to say it's time to get out and wait? >> this is an amazing opportunity. if you look at the internet sector right now, you saw it on twitter, the sector is under some pretty significant pressure. i think you have to look at groupon and facebook as unique opportunities and i'm highly confident in the case of groupon that they're going to pull this transition off. >> i'm going to leave it there.
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tom. this is on a day of course yelp declines 12%. levels not seen since september. this is not a space where there are free passes or where it seems to be amazing opportunities. >> this company doesn't deserve a free pass. they have completely changed their business model and everyone knows it's going to take time. the bar going into this quarter were very low and to have missed and also on the guidance, you don't go near the stock. when you have valuation that's going to take time to improve. this is exactly what people are trying to avoid in the entire space. >> yeah. >> i don't know that any of the fundamentals matter at this point at all. that's the risk of owning something that trades at a ridiculous valuation of fundamentals. >> we've got to take a break. we have a lot of after-hours transactions going on. other big movers. yes, there are other big moves, like fire eye and big percentage
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and losses and gains. plus from disney's monster sales. the numbers you need to know and what it means for investors later on. stay tuned.
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geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. a lot of earnings here. all reporting after the earnings bell. starting with first solar beating on its earnings and lifting 2014 guidance. >> these guys are making some good investments the tetris business. also getting them into the residential part of this. companies probably fairly priced which is trading expensive. good action in the after-market
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here. this is a stock missed by the last six quarters and had taken a bath. good numbers today. >> let's take a look at live nation posting a smaller than expected first quarter loss revenue rising 8%. karen? >> it looks pretty good on the top and bottom line. it will be interesting to hear how they view some of their higher profile view. so far everything looks good. terrible tape in general but like live nation here. >> fireeye dropping. coming in a bit light. grasso. >> if there was a segment without this rotation that you would have thought would get a bid, it would be this one. if you're looking at security on the web, you would think this would be where you want to put your money. it's caught up in this rotation and show-me attitude, right now still on free fall and broke all levels of support. no touch. >> is this jds uni face.
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>> missing both the top and the bottom line. making a stunning reversal. >> the quarter came out. they missed eps. stock got sold. i think i saw a $70 print. >> look at that dip there. it's like the grand canyon. >> some 40 minutes later they came out and said full year revenue is going to be high 20s to low 30s. which justifies the 29 time forward pe they have. big short interest. i'm going to say something i'll probably live to regret. i think you can buy this stock and it's going to be deep, but a $75 level which is where we traded and held in the fall. yeah, i think people are clearly confused on the knee jerk and i think this stock has some more on the upside. this one will last a little bit
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longer. >> you sounded a little like tweety bird you said it twice. >> did i. >> a little bit. two exclusive ceo interviews tomorrow. dave dewalt and what he has to say about the declining in the stock. we have got live nation ceo, michael rapino and what jz and beyonce could mean for the company this summer. hot, hot. coming up next, earnings and stocks flying how in the after-hours trade. we got the latest right after this. that's correct. cause i'm really nervous about getting trapped. why's that? uh, mark? go get help! i have my reasons. look, you don't have to feel trapped with our raise your rate cd.
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. welcome back to "fast". electronic arts and atavision. >> electronic arts and actavision. 48 cents on $114 million. looking for 8 cents.
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and the ceo talking about those next consoles and the xbox-1 and those games on top. referencing this 40% share and focus on increasing profitability. keeping costs flat. investors is cost-cutting initiative. he's highlighting the new version of fifa. generating way more revenue for this company. $900 million per year. also talking about a new version of madden. ufc, nba and golf all any titlintitle i s on the way. an easy beat on the top and bottom. guidance is a bit lighter in terms of the street's expectations. newer releases like heartstone
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with 10 million users. talking about new games including the game "destiny" coming out in september. the studio behind "destiny" was the same one that released that "halo" franchise. expecting the "destiny" to be the next $1 billion franchise. back to you. >> karen, still nice gain here. >> a little bit of the reason for the guidance being a little bit of less, they're going to spend a lot on promotion. i think this was a pretty good earnings report. >> disney earnings out moments ago. getting a lift from "frozen" in the quarter. bart, great to have you with us. it looks like a strong quarter across the board. >> the strength in every one of their segments. they had double digit operating growth across the board.
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these guys are hitting it on on cylinders. the network's business is working terrific cli and the studio business is particularly exciting. when you think about these guys relaunching "star wars" and sequels, i think these guys will be making a lot more from movies and driving more in the stock these already been a great performer. >> disney trades at a multiple here where you start to wonder do they deserve it. it's a fantastic company. very impressed by the resorts and parks as well. should we focus on studios for that growth. 35% to 40% of operating income. that's very, very important. >> i do think the studio is something people underestimate here. the amount of money they'll make from rebooting "star wars" from doing sequels to "frozen," i
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think people will have to go there because i think the stuff will work. the reliability you have on growth and contact costs, i think you can feel safer given a higher multiple. it's a great sector, disney is something you can sleep better at night on the core tv business and get excited about the movie side of it. >> thanks for your time. appreciate it. valuation is a good point. this is a couple dollars off of its 52-week high at this point. >> last quarter they were at all-time highs and traded through those numbers on the earnings. let's see how the market reactors. but pretty good. >> we're getting near it can end of bob's tenure actually. he's got, i don't know, seven, eight months left. i think he will try to do everything he can to go out on a high note. >> and also something we have
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been talking about forever with content providers. if you look at this. everyone is into streaming right now and needs to fill that air space. the more and more they need to fill, the higher this thing goes. >> be sure to catch disney chairman bob iger in a cnbc exclusive interview. meantime, will the big banks continue to bleed? that's next. plus did your portfolio get slammed by twitter today? a lifeline for you after this break. stay tuned. it starts with little things. tiny changes in the brain.
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. twitter shares as you know getting crushed today hitting an all-time low as the stock lockup expires. let's bring back bob, managing director. the price target is at a $50 price target. the next 12 months. if you liked it yesterday, it seems like this should be an upgrade opportunity for you. >> went to 300 times revenues. now you see the stock cut in half. 40 times. what's interesting is you have to look at that against the
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growth rates. you're seeing top line growing 100%. compare it to facebook and google, it starts getting interesting for investors. >> it sounds to me like you're saying it's a buyer opportunity? >> i think one of the things we said is we thought investors would start nibbling. obviously the valuation is way more in line with the rest of the space versus where it was before. >> this is something where i'm still long and it's going the wrong way. i'm wrong on the name. the smoke has to clear. you want to see it solidify but i'll ask bob. do you think there has to be a management change at this point where someone has got to be added on to tell us how to use the product because they're telling us we don't know how to use the product or is this just a matter of monetization catching up? >> montization is growing north of 75%.
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it's the monthly active users. to your point, that's becoming more mass media. that's been the number one question during the road show and number one question right now. i think management has time to prove out they can get a bigger audience base. >> what do you think the risk reward is upside and down side? >> you can get down to the mid 20s or so and up towards 50 bucks or so, our target. that gives you a range. i think you have seen expectations reset for this one now. people know users are an issue. you seen the lockup come and go and some trickling out the next couple of days. it gets more interesting now. >> quickly, tim and you who have been saying the lockup was going to matter. if you look at the volume, it traded 130 million shares. clearly it did matter. four times the available -- >> totally get it. you guys have been right on the price action.
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bob, if we go into the news into the lockup. we could be looking at a stock $48 or $50 coming into lockup. you can't prove the counter factual. >> today the psychology is you hang on to gains that you can, and people will be dishing out more now if the stock was higher. >> what if you have been long and wrong? michael can help you save your twitter trade. >> this is an interesting case. a lot of times when you have a situation like this, this was a stock that was 46 bucks only 10 days ago losing 30% in such a short period of time. it's common for options traders to get questions about how you might repair your trade. one way people do it is they just buy more stock and hope the lower average will help them regain. without risking additional capital, is take a look at the
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september, you can get into that one and sell two of the higher ones for 2.25. it doubles your returning between $33 and $40. now you can make back the $14 if it only gets up to $40. above that your gains are capped. it's not uncommon for people to say, you know what, i made a bad choice when i bought it at $46 i want to get out and i don't think it's going to get back to the previous level. no magic bullet unless somebody writes you a check for that decision you made a few days ago. i'm not going to volunteer to do that. >> i'm sure lots of folks are taking notes. catch more options action and check out the website optionsaction.cnbc.com. alibaba filing for its ipo in
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the last hour. we have been talking a bit about this. in terms of the f-1, what stands out to you so far? >> it pretty much confirms the number we had. we did get a peak of them from yahoo. it confirms what a monster this company is in terms of its size and profit margins. these are now audited numbers, of course. it's growth rate, given its size, just to give people a sense -- by the way, releasing a search note. a sneak preview here live. $195 billion. that's $170 billion value based on comps and another $1925 billion which people appreciate all the equity stakes they own. that includes webo, that includes jd.com and movie maker
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studios. that includes enormous number of asian companies. you have to factor in that $25 billion in equity stake or you're just ignoring the true value of the company. >> you think they could spin out -- because they have been a very inquisitive company. that they could spin those out? >> recently, yes. >> we were discussing that. what's your sense of that? you have been looking at alibaba. they bought stakes in things like lift and shock runner in the u.s., but also china vision media. >> they clearly want to be in the space that i think you look happen amazon and this could create a tech bubble that already exists. june mae is coming out tomorrow. chinese stocks have suffered as much as the stocks over here. i think this is a boost. >> once again, 195 is a sneak
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preview of the value of alibaba? >> yes in equity stakes which we think they plan to spin off. they appreciate their position in the market in china and they know they could add value as with webo. they're going to have integration agreements, partnership agreements and want to get their pound of flesh each time these companies go public and get the benefit of the value. they're smart money. >> great analysis. meantime, coming up, we hear from the whole foods conference call. what is behind this rough quarter. financials lead the markets into the red for a second day in a row. is there a one stock to blame? that's next. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ]
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welcome back to cnbc. i'm kayla touchy in the
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newsroom. there is speculation about how alibaba would be structured with a super majority for jack ma or joe side the ceo. we don't what their percentages are. but interestingly the alibaba partnership made up of 28 executives, a simple majority of those executives can oust jack ma the founder and executive chairman of this company or joe tsai who is currently the leading executive there. alibaba, it doesn't look like there is much of one. four directors listed including jack jackie reses. reses will step down. they'll have to add six directors between now and the time they ipo. >> thanks for that. interesting stuff out of the .
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f-. -- f-1. >> the call wrapped up. it was a brutal one for management. analysts hammering the management of increasing competition. obviously investors were not happy with the results nor with what happened on the conference call. the stock absolutely plunging. lower guidance and sales predicted. not our finest results. when it comes to competition they said this is the most competitive environment that they had ever seen before. citing stores like kroger. and other aggressive expansion efforts by the likes of sprouts. which by the way, reports tomorrow. we'll have to see if they're feeling the pain. clearly whole foods has to up the anti against the competitors. they emphasize they are a leader in this organic sector.
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>> thank for that wrap-up. these are levels putting in a 52 week low. guy, didn't you make a call on whole foods yesterday? >> he told you this was going to happen. what i said was is if mike's right, i think it's going to be a buying opportunity. they should have warned given this quarter it was lousy. this is a new 52-week low. we bounced off these levels before. if you have a huge volume day tomorrow which you're going to have, i think you get a $41 level which we're trading it by the stock. >> a very bad monday. is this as bad as it's going to get or the beginning? anthony good to see you as always. let's start with jp mo pchlt mpe filing friday. >> you had a 28% decline in jpmorgan. 58% decline on barkley's. this is a contrary call by us.
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we actually like these names and we think these are things you can tuck away. they're trading at roughly book value and nine times earnings on both of those names. these are names we like because they're uncluttered. one last point i want to make on the banks in general, the net interest margins are where they're going to make the money. the yield curve has not steepened as quickly as people expected it too. we think these going to happen, too. >> let's say the yield curve stays flat, pretty much where it is right now. does that change your view on the financials? >> it doesn't because of the price. at nine times earnings where karen can tell you yourself getting a 10ish present earnings on the stock. it would certainly help net interest margins are going to be the way these banks make money over the next cycle.
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we're making the prediction that this rate cycle we're in right now because of the unexpected slowdown is testify rare. the back half will probably be economically stronger than the first part of the year. >> what's your call on it now? >> i got back in 58% right around that $15 mark. this is brutal after that result where they gave bad information. i think it's a potential for both citi and bank of america to pop going into the summer months. >> i hope that's true. i'm long citibank and jpm. you talked about it yesterday. the curve has been flat for a longng,ng time. so if -- >> it's causing near term compression. if you're a little slower money, you can buy these names, tuck them away. by the end of the year they're going to do very well. >> anthony, we'll see you next week out in las vegas. >> we're looking forward to
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that. >> both the half time report and "fast money" will be broadcasting live from las vegas. you will not want to miss that. thanks for stopping by. still ahead, you're first move tomorrow.
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. time for the final trade. around the horn. tim. >> a big run in brazil continues but i think you fade above $16. nothing fundamentally has changed. >> pete. >> so shows signs of life. yields just under 5%. i would hide there. >> first i want to make a correction. bob is actually staying. he's delaying his retirement. that was old news. anyway, i like google. it's caught in the down draft but i still like it. >> guy. >> we have time to chat. >> we do. get through your final trade first. >> look at the quarter that anadarko. the stock has been up. we talked about it off the headline back in december. i think it has room to run. >> the big news tonight. alibaba files for its ipo here
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in the united states. let's take a look at shares of yahoo. holding on to their after-hours shares. everybody says it's still a buy. >> i own it. >> i think you can take this thing higher. >> i'm melissa lee. see you back here tomorrow. don't go my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. that's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jim cramer. sometimes there's a struggle, a tug of war for

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