there are lots of people who don't know who i am. i have noticed it. if you have status, it's a better flying experience. i think most airlines have fo s focused on training their staff to be more personable. >> we talked about the electronics and that makes a difference. >> we've leave it there. thank you to the panel as well for a great discussion today. now it's time for "fast money" in las vegas. >> announcer: tonight "fast money" hits the road for one of the biggest investment events of the year. the salt conference in las vegas. from the street to the strip, our traders go all in to find out who is hitting big. who is doubling down. and who is playing it close to the best. plus, special vip access to tonight's high roller guesting. mike nobagratz and ingrid

pierce. >> if you like going to where the action doesn't stop -- >> announcer: live, the action starts now. good evening we have live from the alternative investment conference in the haeart of las vegas. some of the brightest names in business will converge on the streets. top ideas for asset allocation and where to look for value in 2014. our traders are guy, brian and john. and a theme that has emerged from the conference is what is going on in the u.s. economy and how do we deal with the credit markets. we're seeing it play out in today's market. the lowest? more than six months? >> right that's what everybody is talking about. two sides in the investment community. some people are saying short bonds is the best trade in the world and then there's a whole other part which is you want to be long bonds here.

there are things going on structurally. but the real question that everybody is trying to answer here is how strong is the economy? is the bond market telling us things aren't as strong as we might think? >> even pounding the pavement for a long time. >> they come down on either side of the fence. i'm in bk's side of the fence where the economy is not nearly as strong as the market suggests and i still think rates go lower from here. ten year rates are headed back down towards 2% which suggests the economy is lot more slower. >> we're seeing it in the small caps for a long time. today small caps down 9% from its march high. >> what you have also was that inflation report hotter than expected. that played into bk's theme also with the bonds being again a place where people are going. not because they're going to put their foot on the brakes, but because of just the opposite that the consumer is feeling it

more now and one way to keep them from feeling it even worse is to perhaps see rates go lower. that's what one of the bets was. the markets were selling off not broadly, but we did see the dow lose, give up better than 100 points. >> look at retail sales today. everybody is expecting a snap back from the winter and it didn't happen. that's the talk around here. is that a one time event? >> let's get to a big mover. we're watching cisco systems popping. we have actually got revenue guidance and bring you the latest from the ceo later on. posting revenue in the third quarter. and guidance coming in better than expected. >> the guided revenue growth between 1% and 3% and that would imply revenues that would be higher than what the street was getting in. >> significantly higher.

this was a solid quarter. as lousy as quarters have been, this is the exact opposite. what does that mean for the stock? we have cisco trading 24.5 give or take in the after hours. 26.5, that's where the stock should be trading. the guidance wasn't great but better than people were expecting. this stock is still not expensive in terms of valuation. i think you're going to see what happened to microsoft and i think you're going to see the same rotation in cisco. >> a lot of analysts are saying going into fiscal 2015 that the caps are going to be much eas r easier. also a good product cycle. >> and software to find networking. when chambers is talking about that and people were talking about virtualization just a couple years ago and how vm ware was eating cisco alive, to not

have to go after as many cisco servers. now you have got chambers embracing that and networking is going to be part of cisco's strategy going forward. i think the street liked that and the emphasis there could be enough to drive cisco to at least test last summer and perhaps touch boo is high 20s. we're seeing some of the network names popping including shares of juniper networks. is this once again a bell weather for technology? it doesn't speak anything about the tech sector. >> i think it speaks something about the broader economy in a sense, that they're seeing some growth. you have a good dividend on cisco. you have earnings that weren't as bad as everybody expected. you could actually see quite a bit of investment dollars going through there. i suspect we hear talk about that. >> i think it speaks to cisco

specifically. gross margins, much better. >> they were only looking for 61.3%. >> they're starting to get their act together and they needed to because the last two quarters have not been good. >> they're also broadening it out because the last three sessions we seen unusual activity. the tech sector of the s&p 500. so they're broaden it out to your points as far as it's juniper as you said. it's going to be emc. it's going to be cisco. >> are you in this trade in cisco? >> i am. i just stuck with what i had. >> seaworld. hey, dom. >> it's light trading so far. but the stock moving slower in the after hours after the company reported a wider than

expected loss. the stock is down about -- we'll call it almost 4%. but light trading about 10,000 shares overall. i tried to stay away from the whale of an earnings report. seaworld down 4%. we'll send it back to you in vegas, guys. >> he didn't try. >> he just jammed it all in at the end. >> i cheated. i was trying to find a way to say splash zone. >> what he did say was with all due respect and he insulted us. >> give me a trade. >> first of all, seaworld, i think you stay away. these earnings are not great. i don't think it's a place you want to be. i would go to disney because you also get the content and everybody knows content is king now. >> and comcast with the new harry potter gringets or whatever it's called.

>> their all like 19 movies and they're all the same. >> but now they have a new ride. and whatever the heck -- trust me. your kids are going to make you go there. >> good luck. >> still ahead, dr. doom has a brand new risk of global risks that can derail the rally. nouriel next. and much more "fast money" from the conference in las vegas straight ahead. became your business. at&t can help simplify how you manage it. so you can focus on what you love most. when everyone and everything works together,

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our next guest is considered one of the world's top hedge fund managers. michael is chief investment officer of the macro fund. you're going to be on a panel tomorrow discussing the challenges to the macro fund managers out there. and it's been a challenging year when you take a look at the

performances including your own fund. let's talk about the trend. it's been a low volatility run so far. how do you manage this? mg >> it's difficult. i think the s&p has been plus or minus 3% most of the year. a 20 basis point range. markets are easy for macro when trending and difficult when their not trending. the idea is to have less chips on the b table. to bet less and wait until the game shifts and it always does. >> in terms of what's going on in the yield environment in credit, there's been talk in this conference so far of how portfolios are managing this environment and whether or not there is a credit bubble. we have heard various rumblings that there's a by goieginning o

credit rumble. what do you see? >> we don't see a double. the banks are fortresses right now. no pun intended. they have much smaller balance sheets. the typical credit crises happens from banks. we're not going to see it there. so most of the credit has been shifted in the mutual fund industry and mom and dad are usually not panic sellers because they're not leveraged. we do this not a lot of value in credit. so it's kind of a boring environment for our credit business. but i don't see a double any time short being popped. >> let's switch gears. how about bitcoin. i'm a big fan of it. i know you're involved in it. is it a bubble? will it be the currency of the future? >> if you look at the market cap, it's about $4.5 billion. >> how do you get that number?

i read that you have cited that number before. >> take 450 times the amount of bitcoins in circulation. >> precisely the amount of bitcoins? >> right. i'm not sure it's fair to call it market cap. but rough proxy. when i look at the amount of human capital working on the project, there are 30,000 independent programmers out there coding and working on bitcoin derivatives working on it. almost every california shop now has got some focus on bitcoin. i think rarely has a project had this much human capital coming into it where you can buy it at $4.5 billion. that's the easy pitch. >> mike, i'm in the camp that deflation is what our fed has been trying to fight and that

it's trying to tell you something at 2.5% yields. can s&p go up and bond yields go down? that seems to be the question people are asking here. >> the bond market is telling you something. i think we're squeezing the last people out of the shorts and you'll see some reversal. but the market has told you something. when you started the year, if you looked at the five years time it was about 475 basis point. that number today is about 100 basis points less. risk premium plus the potential growth rate and inflation rate. at the beginning of the year we thought 2% growth, 2% inflation, 50, 60 base points. so what did that 100 base points come from? it came from people rerating

what they think the long term potential is. and rerating what the long term potential of inflation is. dramatically i think most of that rerating has happened. it's hard to argue why it should be less than 360 unless you think ten years forward the united states is doomed. i just don't have that opinion. >> we see tremendous amounts of m & a this year. $1.3 trillion of deals globally. is that where you see the next wave coming. european m & a will catch up to what's going on here in the united states? >> we're trying to build out our platform with talented individuals and teams. kw yes, we think m & a is going to continue. we start with the premise are we getting great talent.

>> it's got to be backed by the belief there's flow in europe though? >> certainly. if you look at the calender for the first four months, it's up 60%, 70% versus last year. >> fortress is buying a large development on the east side of manhatt manhattan. >> i run the macro fund. i'm not allowed to comment on what my other partners are doing. >> fair enough. one last question. bitcoin, have you put any more money into bitcoin beyond what you put in in 2013 which is $20 million or so? >> no. the firm has a small position and us as individuals have a small position. and we have invested in some small vc opportunities but nothing substantial. >> what are you waiting for? if you believe this is going to

be the mediation of the financial services industry, that's big. why not put more in now? >> well, each of our funds has its own charter and demand date. i run a macro fund. and liquidity is something we focus on. and bitcoin just doesn't have enough liquidity to meet the standards of my fund. >> i know some names include names like amazon. what do you make of what's going on in the market here? and what is your most recent addition to your fund in technology? >> you know, i think the growth value trade happened because momentum and worked and worked for a long time. i don't think that whole trade is over. i think it had a big washout. but i think a lot of those names last year will work again this year. >> you didn't really answer my question. i was asking you also what your latest addition to your fund was

in tech? >> we really haven't been adding anything uniquely recently. >> michael, thank you for joining us. coming up next, morgan stanley's vice chairman of wealth management and the one and only anthony scaramucci will be here live. next right here on "fast." with all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason

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talk to your doctor about all your symptoms. get the blood tests. change your number. turn it up. androgel 1.62%. . we are live in las vegas where many of the world's top investors are sharing their winning strategy. joining us now anthony scaramucci and gary kaminski. good to see you. >> great job this morning on the panel. >> thank you. and there have been many, many panels. let me ask you. this is a yearly conference. what are some of the different

themes emerging this year? >> i think what we're always trying to do is find the contrary view or something different. i thought jamie diamond's position on inflation, interest rates and the spec to of deflation i thought was interesting. bond market probably going to react we think over the next 6 to 12 months. that was the big highlight this morning. what did you think? >> try to think about what is the headline here. we did a panel together earlier. basically it was trends. what are the trends coming out. a year ago i thought to myself i was too conservative. i didn't realize the impact was going to continue to push these managers. that was what happened a year ago. i think i walk out of here tomorrow and my take-away is

going to be -- and i was late on the bottom market last year. i feel more strong interest rates are going to remain low and trend low are as the result of these managers. >> i think gary would agree. dave was rock solid in the early part of the market if you're short you're going to get taken out in body bags. we're going to be hearing from him and we'll be able to share that tomorrow. >> in terms of credit though, i mean, is there a credit bubble out there? that's sort of a running question that i have come across when just talking to people here. >> my opinion, absolutely not. for what we do in our role, our clients have been asset allocating across the spectrum. having money in fixed income and dividend securities. they have had a very good year because they have had the diversification. no, i don't believe there's a

credit bubble. like anything else, there are certain credits trading at levels that are inappropriate. but in the sense, unless you believe the fed is going to directionally move interest rates very strong and fast, there's no credit bubble that i see. >> let's talk about some of the market moving panelists that will speak. you mentioned david temperatupp >> we had jamie diamond. i think we have got -- i'm a little tired. forgive me. i have a ton of names. buff i but i'm focused on the political side. and we're talking about fixed income but we have to be worried about the tail risk stuff that can happen in the markets. i think rosenstein, tepper, we'll be hearing from.

>> listening to imagimagic john >> everybody is going to that one. >> magic johnson is the most inspirational speaker. >> stick around guys. what is smart money saying about the global recovery. our next guest has the urge of surge activity. ingrid pierce, great to have you with us. >> great to see you. >> you come to these conferences almost every year. and you're saying there's a surge. >> yeah. seems to be a real pickup. we have seen it on the institutional side. they haven't been allocating capital on a regular basis. we started to see that happen again. we're also seeing it with some of the smaller managers, between one to five.

so i think the activity is across the sector and that seems to bode well for a lot of different sectors. >> the most hedge funds within those sectors, is it top performers? >> yeah, a lot driven and credit, too. yeah, that's the main, two, i would say for us. >> are you finding that in terms of looking for funds that it is difficult to find funds in the right strategies? >> no, i don't think so. for us, again, 40% of our portfolio is in the activist trade right now. we have got stuff in the mortgage security space. we have seen the slowdown in housing. we're also doing things -- i think we're going to hear about the recapitalization of the banks. these trust certificates, very uncorrelated to the markets. another big part of our portfolio. we are finding ideas and capacity, but the long/short

managers are still not doing well. hedge funds underperform because of the long/short managers. >> you would know that i made a bold call and i said after all these years of the closet index, it's adding value versus the long/shorts and we finally come to the year where it's over. >> i wanted to come to the panel where melissa was on it. >> so one gary equals more of a distraction. ingrid, you're based in the kay min islands, are these funds domiciled in the islands and what the tax policy will be in the united states? we're seeing so much fear about rising taxes here or tax environment that's not conducive to doing business. >> people are going to structure their products wherever they think is the most efficient for them and the u.s. bonds will continue. i think the domestic market is

very, very strong. they're domiciling in europe as well. they might find in addition to having high returns and lots of structuring reasons for doing that. >> coming up next, cisco trading higher. we'll here from ceo john chambers himself fresh from the call. plus, it was one of the most talked about panels today. two of the streets most well-known bears in a heated war of words over the fed. we'll sit down with them both ahead on "fast." (mother vo) when i was pregnant

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welcome back to "fast money." we are live from the investment conference inside the balagio hotel in las vegas. let's take a listen to josh on the conference call. >> cisco reporting after the

close. you saw the stock take that pop when ceo john chambers got on the call with analysts and gave q4 revenue guidance down 1% to 4%. analysts jumped on that. asked him what's driving that guidance and motivating it. he attributed to stronger backlog and a stronger q3. he took the chance to talk about how he believes cisco was strategically positioned to capitalize on the big transitions we're seeing in tech. take a listen to that. >> i believe we are positioned extremely well on the major market transitions. when i look at our leadership, our hybrid solutions. cisco's infight into the network traffic to provide security and analytic st. louiss is second to

none. >> talked about geographically where the company is seeing strength and weakness. u.s. orders were up 7% year over year. talked about seeing stabilization in europe. also seeing challenges remaining in the merging markets. back to you. >> thanks for that. cisco shares at its after hour session highs. remember what it said about other parts of the world last conference call. that's what caused problems for cisco and the network sector at a whole. >> the stock is cheap on valuation. they tried to push this thing to 21 unsuccessfully. we'll see what happens when it gets there. >> tomorrow morning is this a buy for bk? >> i think there's going to be a lot of money going into this. i thought 2014 was going to be a flat to down year for cisco. things have changed here.

>> they were working against the nsa, too. when he says security, that's the word he's trying to get buzzed out there as far as people fearful of the nsa and them listening in and/or hacking into your data. >> creepy. time for pops and drops. we kick it off with a pop for zulily up 9%. >> do you know what that is? >> i know it. >> children's clothing. >> is that what they do? >> i think so. >> you take zulily. beaks doesn't know what it is. it was up 9%. >> because people are buying children's clothes. >> there you go. >> we got a drop for soda stream down 1%. >> gross margins better. i have said it's not about the quarter. it's a story of who is going to come in and take a stake. either dr. pepper, snapple,

starbucks or pepsi. one of those. it's been rumored it's going to happen. >> sony down 6%. d doc. >> out of the last seven years they have been reporting losses. that's a bad story obviously as positive as things are with beats, a product line that sony owned forever. now sony can't get out of its way. i would stay away. >> we get a pop for zulily. just kidding. a pop for britney spears. looks like you'll be able to see her hit the stage one more time. extending her vegas residence for 30 more shows. she has hit the jackpot in vegas pulling in a reported $30 million. go out and get your tickets for brit. >> when she shaved her head, i was a huge hit buyer of britney

spears and ever since. >> still a buyer. >> yeah. >> you can play that game. >> two of the biggest bears on wall street went head to head at the salt conference today. we give you a front row seat as nouriel and peter join us after the break. stay tuned. ompany to new york state. the numbers are impressive. over 400,000 new private sector jobs... making new york state number two in the nation in new private sector job creation... with 10 regional development strategies to fit your business needs. and now it's even better because they've introduced startup new york... with the state creating dozens of tax-free zones where businesses pay no taxes for ten years. become the next business to discover the new new york. [ male announcer ] see if your business qualifies.

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. the most talked about panel here involve two of wall streets highest profile bears going head to head over fed policy. roubini squaring off with schiff. we brought them together on "fast money." let's welcome them. >> hi. >> it's really like the battle of the bears. who is doomier than the next one? you're actually pretty moderate when it comes to the u.s. economy.

>> i thought i was dr. doom until i met peter and compared to him i am dr. boom. he has been predicting the collapse of the dollar and inflation rising sharply. i see the opposite. inspite of q1, q2, q3 there's not going to be much inflation because there's slack in the liberal market and commodities. and credit growth, most of the excess money is going to the bank. we're printing a lot of money but not creating credit and inflation. so inflation is going to stay low. gold price are going to fall. i believe the dollar is going to be stronger in the next few years. >> what are your views? >> i disagree what whhe said.

he believes the economies need a certain amount of inflation to grow and consumers are better off if the prices of things they need and want go up every year. it's my opinion economies are served by falling prices, by increased production, increased efficiencies that lower consumer prices, that's what makes people better off. i think the idea central banks need to deliberately create inflation is wrong. it's worsening the problems in the economy. >> i'm in favor of low inflation. of 2%. you were arguing deflation was good. or the stagnation of japan in the last 20 years or what's happening right now, recession. deflation is a lack of aggregate

demand. why do you think deflation is good? that's none sense. >> why is 2% inflation better than 1% inflation? you said if consumers think prices will go down, they won't shop. give me the example of one product that you wanted, that you needed that you would defer buying for a year because if you thought you deferred for a year it would be 1% cheaper. >> that's a phenomenal -- >> you're talking -- >> secondly if you expect the prices are going to be lower in the future, you can postpone consumption. >> people don't do that. >> we're seeing -- you're talking about theory. >> no. i'm talking about fact. >> deflation and you have recession and depression. here are the facts. >> americans use credit cards.

they buy things and pay 18% interest. why don't they wait a year and save the money and 18%. because they want it now. there is no period in history where consumers have not bought things because they thought the price is going to be cheaper. we know if we wait a while we can get the phone cheaper. but we don't wait because we want it now. the central banks are creating this propaganda because they want inflation because they want to wipe out debt. inflation is good for dead btor. you have all the indebted governments. they need inflation. the consumer doesn't need inflation. what we need is more production and falling prices because that's what grows in economy. that's what leads to higher living standards. when workers can buy more with the money they earn. >> he just called your argument nonsense. >> he has been saying we have high inflation and gold prices

are going to go through the roof. i'm making the arguments because we have debts and because of the facto factors, we're still having economic growth and low inflation rather than high and the gold prices with falling and inflation is lack of aggregate demand. recession and is not depression. those are the facts. >> our viewers will be familiar with you. you have always said gold prices are going to go higher. >> well, they have been higher. >> i can give you six reasons why they're going to go lower. >> you were saying gold prices were going to go down the whole time from 500 to 1,900. >> go to 5,000. >> it will go there. you have to wait more time. >> okay. >> gold has been going up for 13 years. it had one decline year and now everybody wants to say well you

see the price of gold is going down. it went down one year but in the last 14 years it's done very well. how long was i warning about the housing bubble and the financial crisis before it happened? it was years. it takes a while for the problems to surface. we do have an inflation problem and a bubble. and commodity prices are rising. maybe you haven't noticed but gold is $1,300. >> like two crazy uncles out of the attic. >> the viewers got a taste of what happened here at salt. front row seat. >> the commodity he's not going to buy because he's going to wait for 1% -- >> deflation -- >> with that, we have got to leave it there. thank you so much. you can talk after words. i have got to wrap this up. excuse me. up next the ceo of the company making medicine from marijuana joining us to talk about the new drug his company is making that

doesn't get you hugh. more "fast" straight ahead.

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getting some breaking news. after hours trading from the asco cancer conference.

seeing some big data drop. stocks are moving. insight down 10% after hours on its approved drug in pancreatic cancer. seeing good news in clovis. astrazeneca also presenting data on a similar drug people to be happy with. bristle merck. back to you, guys. >> that's one we mentioned when we discussed it with the city's analyst. >> we saw the stock within a few days. now it's back down to, guess, what, a 50 handle. they just recorded a couple

weeks ago it wasn't great. it's about the cash burn and can they get things out in time. it looks like the answer might be yes. with the 12% shortage where it currently is, i think it's probably some more on the upside. >> medical marijuana is turning over a new leaf. kicking off the stigma of getting high on another ingredient. the first drug will be able to treat cannabis. it's a cannabinoid platform you're using. can you explain? >> other than thc which do not make you high and have medicinal properties. so we have been interested into

a cannabinoid which appears to have effects in treating seizures in children with epilepsy. >> how big of a market could that be for you? >> i think we're particularly interested in the first instance, in particular, often syndromes within epilepsy. we're going to try -- >> lgs. >> lgs and some others. we are focusing on those and the first instance. we have an aspiration that the drug may be used more broadly in epilepsy in due course. >> if that is the data we're expecting that so many analysts say can be a catalyst for your stock. >> yeah. with data coming mid year. not far away and a lot of eyes are on that data at that point. >> there's another drug also for the treatment of ms, and it's

expected to be in the first half of 2015. >> product, sativex is a treatment for pain in people with cancer. the next point of that is phase three data later this year as a treatment for cancer pain. two big milestones coming up. >> when you're taking a look at the drugs not just for the treatment, you see different applications. is that why the drug could be much bigger than what we're forecasting here? >> yes. this isn't just one drug. the drug for ms and pain is a different drug from the epilepsy drug and we have other drugs. they all come from the c

pond. >> is a platform for priortary. what's to stop another company from driving this cannabinoid platform? >> the expertise in the company is that we have been doing this for 15 years. >> 15. >> and we have developed a core competen competence, not just in growing cannabis but being able to translate that into what an authority like the fda would need to see. the advantage we have is the expertise to translate into the modern era the notion of a cannabis based medicine and make it a proven fda. >> what's your take? >> obviously these stocks are volatile. but you know, they have become

binary events and then when the wind gets behind the sails, these stocks move quickly. i think there's some upside in the name. >> when you want to define your bet like justin was describing there for you, when your defining your bet for and taking advantage of this particular cannabis platform, a lot of companies, you can't get your arms around it because they're not as real. a lot of them are penny stocks. this is not a penny stock. it's been doing this for 15 years. that's more of a driver behind them rather than some companies hitting the market now. >> coming up next, a number of retail stocks under fire today as the bad news keeps piling up. plus, we got your first move tomorrow. more "fast" straight ahead. i have low testosterone. there, i said it.

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[ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim macy's share fell flat after reporting mixed earnings results. options action, mike, before we get to the trade, what was the activity like? >> there was about 3.5 times the

average daily volume. a lot of the retail stock seeing above average activity. jcpenney and some of the other names they're going to be announcing, also seeing above. macy's activity, i think it's probably a real investor going out and buying the november 62.5 calls. paying about $2 for that. this stock is going to produce a little over $4.50. even if you buy at that level. which is what you do, you're going to own it about 14 times earnings. you know, this is still a value play even at these levels. >> it's not of for us. we're back here tomorrow here in las vegas. we have got narula and drapkin and mclean.

all-star lineups. it is time for the final trade. guy d guy. >> tlt goes higher. tlt. >> that's a good one. besides zulily, i think we go cash america. they do well when gold my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain you but to figure it out for you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me. what if we changed as a people? what