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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 13, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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audience do. this weekend one thing they can do. >> ten seconds the best investment you can make is in your kids. you can see it here and here and certainly proud of the siblings, my other kids. the best thing is being in for the long term, not the short term. >> great to see all of you. i still can't believe you pulled this off. it's now time for "fast money" coming up with melissa lee in just a few moments. in fact, melissa, we'll hand it right over to you. >> thanks a lot, kelly. enjoy father's day. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. our trade ers are here. oil is spiking today. what happens if oil prices stay at these levels or go higher? that's coming up. first, a major deal in the internet space. open table shares surging on news it is being bought by priceline for $2.6 billion. groupon and yelp also popping on hopes that those companies could be the next takeout targets. priceline though down nearly 3%.
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no surprise on the deal. what do you make of the deal? >> timmy is going to disagree with me but this sale is interesting. it's not expensive on valuation. whether or not they overpaid i don't think makes a whole lot of difference. it's seemingly done everything right. the daughters have been very good. it's done a back and fill all the way higher. people have shot against it because of the absolute price, not valuation, and i like priceline here. priceline to me is a play. >> i'm not sure i'd have a big issue. i like priceline in terms of like the business model. i like their dominance in the space, their innovation in mobile. these are great. the chart scares me but the valuation does not. i think it's one of the great kind of dominant franchises. >> do you like it better with open table or do you like it less with open table? >> i feel like they had to chase on this one after trip adviser but i think it's a good deal and it broadens the business model and that's what you wanted to see. you want to see them innovating. it's almost going back to the facebook thing. everyone is fighting to stay
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relevant tomorrow and to broaden out their platform. i think it's very good. i think they overpaid. i think the stock is suffering. i think the valuation is not terrible. >> open table, 80% of revenues come from the united states. it's really a domestic play but it could help open table expand internationally which is what they have been trying to do. >> i think open table got real lucky. global bought the gap last year. i think that's a huge competitor. google bought the gap last year, and they bought them as a huge competitive threat. open table had to do this. i think inside priceline open table will do fine. but now what else do you look at? you look at a yelp, groupon was up today, but if i was a ceo of yelp, i would be looking around for somebody to take me out. i don't know if you're going to buy them, you have to probably do it through options. i think there's going to be a lot of options but i would buy
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yelp call-ups. >> the theme following this deal is localizing. localize wherever the user is. if you're a priceline user, you need a restaurant wherever you're going. you need a localized sort of -- >> partner. >> exactly. >> groupon has been under pressure, down 47% year-to-date. if you look at the chart, this is one that not whole lot has to happen across the tape. you get one sniff of anything positive coming out on this, and this thing spikes dramatically from a point of reference. obviously you're talking about stock with a six handle on it. i'm not crazy about the name, just the environment. >> you have to think about open table and the number of shorts that had been in that name and how they are just squeezed ruthlessly by this deal. >> 14% short interest. you wake up and it's up what is it 40 something. >> 46% premium. ouch. >> that's a pretty painful move. what's interesting though is it just gets open table back to where it was fi or sve or six y
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ago. open table has traded this price before. not to say it's not going to trade higher or lower from here. you're talking about extraordinarily volatile names, and the space is very difficult to be short in. today is a great example of why you don't want to be in some of these names. >> which internet companies will be snatched up next? let's bring in fdr capital management director daniel ives. >> great to be here. >> the fingers are pointing at yelp. what do you think? >> i think yelp at this point is front and center and, again, you could look at there's a lot of guys out there with yahoo!, with microsoft, it's sort of an arms race here. i think yelp's ceo is getting a few calls this weekend. >> in terms of who might be, you mentioned microsoft. that's sort of an unlikely -- i think most people would say google or yahoo! or another internet name so to speak as opposed to a software name with an internet presence. >> google and yahoo! are definitely sort of more consensus but i think there's an arms race going on here.
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if you like at where microsoft and dell are going, they want to double down potentially on search, on mobile, on cloud. they need more and more content specific on the local side, and this is something where a bit out of consensus, but i see microsoft being acquisitive not just on the cloud but on the internet social side as this convergence of enterprise, consumer, and social happens in the market. >> dan, in terms of yelp though, is this an attractive buy at this point? this is a company that's trading 90 times current numbers. their first quarter numbers out a month ago were okay but they're barely eking out a positive ebitda. would somebody be chasing into this name because they feel they need to and ultimately not a good time. >> you cover microsoft, would you be more bullish if microsoft bought yelp? does it help build out search? >> to the first question i think at this point it's all about growth in the right areas, and you're going to see guys pay up. there's asquaresity of ve--
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scarcity of vendors. if they did do this acquisition, it would make us more bullish on that piece of the revenue which i think more investors are focused on. >> you think there could be a takeout in the software sector for what? >> sales force for demand ware. that really looks like a marriage we could see happening. specifically on the e commerce cloud sigh. that's another leg to that stool for sales force. and i think you're going to see more and more consolidation across internet, across cloud, and you're going to see vendors like the sales forces, the microsofts, the oracles, the ibms cross pollinating from enterprise to social to consumer. >> all right, dan. have a great weekend. >> you, too. thank you. >> dan ives. we've been noting the pullback in cloud names. >> demand ware if he's right,
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this stock has sold off enough, this was an $85 stock in march, it sold down to $60. up small today. it should have been up more but this is not a bad name at these levels to maybe take a flyer on as well. >> dan would be bullish on microsoft if they bought yelp. i would not be. i think that would be a horrible acquisition for microsoft. i don't think it would work with what they're trying to do. the problem yelp has, even though i said you could buy calls nobody believes what's on yelp. >> they put bing on the iphone and that was a relationship. then you put yelp in there as well and that makes them even stickier. doesn't it create -- >> it does but that's not the direction they're trying to go. microsoft is supposed to be on every device. that's changing the direction. now you're trying to have a closed system. they have had a closed system for years and it didn't work. they're opening up the system to any phone that you can have out there, any device. i think it would be a huge mistake. >> chatter outside of tech. l.e.d. lightmaker cree surged on
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reports ge could be making a bid. >> this stock we were trading in the early 2000s when these rumors were out there. stock traded up to $100 then this precipitous drop-off, back again, rumors came back over the years. had a huge rally up to $90 and another selloff. it happened three or four years in my ten years of watching this stock. where there's smoke there's fire and there's been enough sell-off in this name down to $50 even with the move today it's worth a look. quarters haven't been great. it's clearly a business becoming commoditized, no question. with that said, it's still the premiere name in the space. it's not like it hasn't happened before. cree at $50 could be interesting for the reasons we just mentioned. >> shares of international game technology surging 9% on news the slot machine maker is for sale. grasso? >> the stock is up 31% since
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june 9th. obviously when you splat a headline like that, you get a lot of buyers that want to get in. you get a lot of shorts that are nervous. this has been such a negative story. i think the stock has room to go higher, probably flirts with $20. >> shares of express up 21% on news investment firm sycamore partners have take an 10% stake in the retailer with an interest in buying the rest of the company. tim? >> well, the way i look at it, this is a space where valuations are starting to get a little interesting after a big sell-off, but a lot of these guys are places where i think the takeout activity is going to increase. i think the valuations have gotten to a place where the entire sector looks like -- leverage buyouts, we've been talking about that. i think this continues to hold these levels. i think the feeding frenzy continues. >> unrest in iraq is showing no signs of letting up and oil prices are at their highest prices since september. plus, elon musk is extending an olive branch to bmw but wasn't he laughing at them just a few months ago?
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we have that story and how to trade it coming up.
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the he escalating tensions iraq pushing oil prices higher. oil stocks all rising. so what do we do at this point with these gains on top of yesterday's gains grasso? >> the longer we go without the united states stepping in, the more likely it is that iran steps in. if iran steps in and tries to help out there for their own interests, the who whole things gets really messy. could you see turkey get involved. this is going to be a big, long, stretched out mess. >> like grasso said, it's the length that matters here. and how long oil is going to stay at these higher prices. that's really what you got to worry about. so when you look at the world, you look at who are big oil consumers? japan, india, you look at glng. one way to play it. they will have to bring more natural gas to these countries. and epi which has been the darling because of what happened with modi and the new election. i would be sort epi.
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i think you have to be worried about inflation in india. >> this has been helping them. i think if you look at oil, i think brent, which is the world's blend, is going to be trading over $125 by the second half of the year. >> the worst for japan? >> in terms of price import pressure, yeah, also for china. the question ultimately to me is -- we know about the supply disruption trade, but there's also demand dynamics putting opec in a little trouble and i don't think saudi arabia can catch up with the demand side. i think oil is going higher more on the back of strength. that's xa counssomewhat counterintuitive. but the world is showing the signs of commodity prices picking up because of global growth. i like the integrated names. they're giving you a combination of some refinery capacity, good dividend yields. >> what about all the drillers, the numbers have been so high. everyone thinks that the numbers are coming down. specifically rig -- >> and i think it's priced in.
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>> here is the problem. >> that stock has been dead money. >> with all these drillers, they've sacrificed margins for utilization. drillers, although they're getting a dead cat bounce, it probably should be sold. >> intel kicking off our top trades. raising second quarter and full year revenue guidance after the bell yesterday in part because of higherp c unit volume. higher by more than 6%. meantime, other pc names also getting a boost. microsoft a big one and also hewlett-packard which you have been in, grasso. >> if you thought it was the death of the pc, all of this was such old news and you watch that rotation into value and intel, kudos to them. it seems they're really recreating their own brand, their own name, and we're not even talking about wearables. we're not talking about being in all of those things as a chipmaker. this is a pc turnaround story. i think it's pretty easy sailing going forward for intel. >> i think the easy one off this is microsoft. we talked about xp support being
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withdrawn. probably driving an upgrade cycle for some sorptions. microsoft if it can get above 42, it looks like a great trade. >> look at citigroup. big underperforming in the financial space. shares around 2% on reports the department of justice is looking for $10 billion to settle charges relating to the sale of mortgage backed securities in the time leading up to the financial crisis. earlier on the closing bell leon cooperman said this about the doj probe. >> the government's behavior is absolutely disgraceful. they want to encourage financial institutions to lend, the last thing they should be doing whether it's bank of america, citigroup, jpmorgan, fining them enormous sums of money when the government itself was as much responsible. >> that's a fair point. it doesn't help you trade the stock but he makes a good point. he mentioned three points that have what we used to call tape bombs in the stock for the last six months to nine months. jpmorgan, citi, and bank of america. citi is interesting if it holds
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46.5, 47. but there are other banks that have been impervious. u.s. bank corp in week and it closed on an all-time high. not an interesting name, not a sexy story, but a stock that continues to grind higher. in an arena where a lot of banks are struggling, this is a stock that's done extraordinarily war. big movers of the day. pop for mankind up 8%. >> well, i already have exposure in this space. i'm long clovis. this is up 102% year-to-date. clovis is down 24%. shame i own the wrong one. i'm not buying it here. >> a drop for -- >> it's a deal that still continues to haunt the company. you're wondering whether they're ever going to pay a dividend. it was part of why you owned this stock. shareholder fighting. it's no touch right now even though there's a lot of value. >> a pop for trulia.
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>> they had a lot of activity on their site that looked like home buying might be picking up. the home builders themselves did not move as much as i thought they would. i think that sector is still trouble. >> a pop for alcoa. >> analyst upgrade. another one earlier in the month. timmy talked about this for a while. we talked about this a couple quarters ago. it's rallying off a quarter. it scares me when analysts start to get on board. not a bad place 14.5 but i think there's more upside in the name. >> and we have a drop for pit bull's pants. >> last year they took center stage at the world cup opening ceremonies but it was his rapper's pants that stole the show. mankles and mom's capris.
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>> it's an awful look. what can you say? guy, you got a pair of those. >> he wears jeggings. >> what i find most troubling is i don't know who you're talking -- that's an artist? >> pit bull, yes. next up -- >> i know carly simon. >> bmw sat down and discussed the future of electric cars. will there be more dlab ration between the four-wheeling frenemies. ♪
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>> all right. bmw and tesla meeting this week to discuss electric vehicles. could there been a partnership developing between these two frenemies. one analyst asked elon musk for his thoughts on bmw's latest electric car and this is how he responded. >> i'm glad to see bmw is bringing an electric car to market. that's cool. but i think there's room to improve. i hope that they do. my comments about -- sorry. anyway, the key point i want to make is i really do encourage them to bring electric cars to market. >> he got the giggles.
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let's bring in phil lebeau who has more on this story. >> melissa, what's interesting is you take those comments and then the comments yesterday during a conference call when he announced that they were going to be opening up their patents to competitors and during that call he said, look, i was meeting with bmw executives last night, we talked about this and a few other things. immediately people went off and ran with that story and said, oh, here we go. you have tesla and bmw hooking up. they are the two companies that have been making electric vehicles. there are others as well, and could we see a partnership in the future? that certainly is a possibility. keep in mind that tesla already has partnerships with toyota, with daimler, and it's interested in other partnerships with other automakers. so despite his comments where he wasn't exactly praising the i3, i think that he would love to see a partnership with bmw and that doesn't necessarily mean that the two companies are merging. it simply means that the possibility of sharing technology. >> phil, we're going to leave it there. thanks for that.
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phil lebeau in chicago. grasso, what's the tesla trade? >> it trades perfectly off tech. it's rolling over. you have to wait for a test of the $200 mark before starters. >> we are just getting some new video just coming in i'm not really sure -- >> oh, no. >> it's exclusive video out of hawaii. so here is a look at this. ♪ >> happy birthday to steve grasso who celebrated yesterday and brian who celebrates his birthday tomorrow. >> it's so nice. >> thank you. >> you don't look a day over 60. >> i feel great for 70. >> look at that coconut bra. >> he wants to borrow it. >> so nice of you guys. >> aren't these beautiful. >> and it was stevie's boys' birthday as well. >> twins, john and luke. happy birthday, boys. >> nice tops. >> nice tops, yeah. >> that is really --
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>> we have to have our karaoke night. >> play it on a loop. >> tim seymour, outstanding work. >> yeah? >> yeah. >> you know why he's in a rock and roll band. >> i have got an edge. i have a karaoke edge on the rest of the world. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> taking profits in twitter back from $29 up to $36 and change. i'm getting out on these calls. >> brian kelly? >> bad news in the airline space. i think you short the boeing. i did it yesterday, you should, too. >> steve? >> apple. i'm involved in apple. i have been negative on the name i'm waiting for a test of 85 or a break through of par. it looks like i'm going to get a test of 85 to buy the other half. >> guy? >> last night was the first annual -- >> first annual? >> karaoke -- >> "options action" karaoke. >> "fast money" won by the way. we schooled "options action." >> tim and i did it. we did a number of duets together. >> you did sweet melissa. >> sarah smile, hall and oates.
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>> not an earnings story. it's a potential takeover story. jim cramer had the ceo on a couple week ago. i like the name. >> that does it for us on "fast." >> sorry. >> as grasso goes for a cupcake. >> you won't believe how high some traders think intel can go. happy birthday grasso and b.k. and happy father's day to all the fathers out there celebrating this weekend. >> absolutely. >> look at that. what can your fidelity greenline do for you? just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. call or come in today for a free one-on-one review.
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this is "options action." tonight -- >> $100 billion. >> well, maybe not that high, but one trader made a huge bet that apple shares will soon hit triple digits. we'll tell you how to cash in. plus, forget open table. because old tech could still be your best bet and we'll give you the name traders are buying. and -- ♪ wow, that's cheesy, but it sure shows what biotech did this week and we'll tell you why there are even more gains to come.
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the action starts now. live from the nasdaq market site, i'm melissa lee. these are the traders in times square. that was quick. the market shrugging off the most recent geopolitical turmoil. the s&p closing up on the day. today's move following a similar pattern. check out this chart. each time a geopolitical crisis has flared up, the s&p experienced a brief pullback but it always recovers and rallies higher. can we expect a similar result this time? let's get in the money and find out. oil's biggest gain for the year this week. >> well, it's interesting because, of course, we're looking at oil in the context just of the last year or so. if you go back and take a look at some previous geopolitical events or even just market turmoil, go back to 2011, for example, and we had a couple-month period where we saw crude oil go up 20 bucks at that point and fall more than 20 in 45 day that is followed it. this isn't really as incredibly volatile as you might expect. it is higher on the year but it is not going on a wild spike.
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obviously we know it's in response to the geopolitical turmoil. what's interesting is the vix is not sharing the same concern. so it seems to be that the oil markets are saying this is an isolated problem for their market and not for options. >> you say that but this week what did we see? we saw gold up a percent, bonds up a percent, equities down if you thought that could happen. >> we saw risk off play out. >> we saw a little bit. to me, yes, the vix is coming off a very low base. it was up 10%. closed at seven or eight year lows last week. really the chart they ran earlier about these kind of crises situations, how we've just kind of shrugged them off, those are all in much higher vol virments environments. when you think of the moves we had this week, could you almost say in the vom environmel envir are, maybe it's the start of something. >> risk off would suggest you would see the concern about correlation in assets. when risk off happens, what happens? correlations go up and severing starts going down together.
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in fact, actually in previous crises what you saw was that equities and crude were actually positively correlated. people were taking money off the table. everything fell and that's mott what we're seeing right now. >> but at the same time this is still very early on. and i don't want to turn this into an oil discussion but if we do see the rebels move into the south of iraq that's when -- >> i think people should be more concerned than they are actually. i think one of the phenomenal things the market has provided for folks over the course of the last couple weeks is you have still got a phenomenal opportunity to hedge. the market has not fallen. options prices have not risen. and then you get these different things going on. these are the clues that maybe you should be thinking about doing something. >> and i would just say, we're going to talk about oil real quickly here because to me back to the crisis playbook, if you faded every one of those spikes when things move, when those asset classes move, you actually would have made a lot of money over the last couple years. so i just want to look at oil. we have a crude chart here. it's actually a really great looking chart when you look at the breakout above $105 and you look at that prior high.
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it looks like it's got some room to go. that being said, those last two instances or three instances it just couldn't get through $105. i believe it's the stuff that's going on in iraq. i believe that stuff is important and to your point, if the rebels do move into the south and it really interrupts production, maybe you do see a test of that prior high. but that's the spot i think where you probably go in and you want to sell it. because it's a trading community. >> you're using uso. what's the trade? >> so the uso etf. if it gets back up to i think we have a one-year chart of it, towards $40 that would be the prior high. i think you look out of the money and i think that these things trade -- listen, i'm not a macro genius but i know a lot of commodities trade very technically. if i got a failed breakout at 40, i would look at an august 38/36 put spread. when i priced. up today versus 39/20. paying 65 cents for one of the august 38 puts and selling one of the august 36 puts at 20
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cents. my max loss there is that 45 cents and i can make almost three times my money and what am i doing there? i'm really targeting some technical levels. 38 would be the next support level and then 36 is the 200 day moving average which would be a big level. >> yes. absolutely commodities do trade heavily on technicals. the fundamentals are actually a pretty good case as well. let's bear in mind that demand actually in the united states is falling. our dependence on middle eastern crude is also continuing to decrease. we seem to be heading towards energy independence right now. with those two factors in mind, i think people would be very foolish at this point to think that crude is going to really rip right here based on what's going on. >> and i guess just button it up, to me you want to fade these sorts of crisis moments because we know, history tells us, that things don't -- crude is not going to $130 because we're not going to have that moment. it's a very low probability event. >> let's move on and talk about apple. the stock actually having it's worst week in a month after 7 to 1 stock split. the split has had an unexpected impact on the options market.
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mary thompson is back at headquarters breaking the story down. >> you know, the results have taken some by surprise. on the average, the total number of apple contracts that have traded both puts and calls has increased by 160%. now, the increase was expected as the stock had gotten cheaper on a dollar basis. so, too, have the options making them more affordable to trade. while volume totals are higher the dollar amount of krts that have traded have actually declined in first week of trading. in may $300 million worth of apple options traded every day, this week that number tell to $100 million. what does it all mean? now that the stock is cheaper again on a dollar basis, perhaps some investors are more comfortable buying or shorting the shares themselves and have less of a need for those options. melissa? >> mary, thanks for that. so where are shares of america's most popular stock headed next? let's check in with carter. >> let's have a look see if we can figure it out. just to start, of course, with the sector of which apple is the biggest part and this picks up
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the picture since the low of march '09. what we know, of course, is that when an instrument responds well to the top or bottom of a channel and stays in that channel, if you will, the probabilities are it will continue to do that. now, we're due for a little more and this has strength from apples and so forth. microsoft, intel today. ultimately we think a little higher. one thing that can add to this is, of course, apple. so here two charts, apple versus the xlk, absolute. obviously apple has been a big laggard. what's impressive is apple's recent strength relative, i will show you this a different way. two-year chart absolute, two-year chart relative. back again, slclute, absolute as relative. i have held the xlk as a constant. it looks like we'll complete this formation and make it back
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to parity. so final chart. here is the absolute chart of apple. here is the $705 high now split adjust adjusted, $100 price. if you like to name your patterns you can call this a cup and handle. we know the stock has jumped from $75 to $95 a little bit of a backoff but ultimately the conclusion should be a perfectly symmetrical move back to the high. so we think you do get to parity at $100. >> so higher move is what carter is seeing. in terms of the fundamental story we're entering what is traditionally the weakest quarter for apple. we don't necessarily have a catalyst in the near term. >> it's an iphone story here. they did better on iphones. that really got this rally sparked. a lot of focused for the 7 for 1 split and the buybacks. that's a part of it but i think people want to see them selling more iphones. so this quarter who the heck is going to go out and buy a new iphone when they know the 4.7 screens are coming out in the fall in september. i don't get it. but i almost think they get a pass, okay? but i got to tell you, the
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higher the stock goes, it will trade $100, have a ball, people. that's up 7%, 8% from here. but there become an increasing risk that product falls flat. >> i look at this and i see a potential point of resistance right there. as you're pointing out, what do we have? we have earnings in july, that will be a nonevent. you have the new operating systems and the device that is will come with it and everyone is going to have to wait to see how that shakes out. it's kind of hard. this is a level where everybody starts to wonder where the law of large numbers will begin to apply and we have to start thinking about that again. >> what did we see when we saw risk off? we saw apple really pull back. after that 20-something percent right and again today. >> i think apple is a huge risk for the broad market at all-time highs. it's 3.5% of the s&p. i think it's 5% or something of the nasdaq 100, and the xlk he was just talking about, it's 13.5% of that. so to me so goes the market -- so goes apple, go goes the market. >> carter?
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>> there's an old expression which is stock is entitled to do something. 75 to 95, 30% advance. it's entitled to pull back from 95% to 92%. perfectly normal. >> mike, you have a trade to make. >> if you're going to follow carter's advice and get long, i wouldn't buy the stock right here. the good news is options are inexpensive. i think it's important to remember that you actually can use them to your advantage. this is one of those places. i'm looking at the october 92 spot 14 calls. that's a convenient strike to remember. $4.50 for those. because implied volatility, you're going to get to essentially make a bullish bet without risking a lot. it costs less than 5% of apple shares. >> i would say -- even though the price of options is really low, this actually sets up really well for put sales for those of you who want to get in rather than actually committing a lot of long premium. if you look at the chart, that
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$85 level is also the 50-day moving average. it was the level that the stock consolidated to for a month before it took off. i would look out and look to sell the 85 puts and maybe do a risk reversal and buy some upside calls. >> i will admit that apple actually probably among all the names out there is one of the ones that sets up well for downside put selling as well. the reason is at the end of the day underneath all that is a big bucket of cash. the downside risk is more muted in names like apple. >> it sounds like if somebody is long apple at this point, it sountz like both of you my say think about a stock replacement strategy. >> absolutely. kr . >> got a question, send us a tweet @cnbcoptions. here is what else is coming up. good intel? >> this tape will self-destruct in five seconds. >> shares of the chip giant are surging and one trader sees it going even higher. we'll tell you how to make
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money. plus, how does mike feel about biotech? >> you complete me. >> well, it's not quite that strong, but he does have a way to make money and he'll show you how when "options action" returns. [ male announcer ] what if a small company became big business overnight? ♪ like, really big... then expanded? ♪ or their new product tanked? ♪ or not? what if they embrace new technology instead? ♪ imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile. a research tool on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.
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♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. talk about a biotech bonanza, the biotech etf is up nearly 8% in a month and that's very good news for mike khouw. here is why. ♪ i want a new drug
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>> on "options action" it's how we trade like scientific geniuses. risk less so we can make more and that's just what mike did with his bullish bet on biotech. he figured it was going higher. but just going long 100 shares would cost more than $20,000. >> what would you little maniacs like to do first? >> well, for starters, how about spending less? so to make a different kind of bullish bet, mike sold the july 235 strike put for a $10 credit. now if shares of the etf stay at about 235, he gets to keep all of that cash and mike still sees some profits as long as the shares are still above 225 at july expiration. but below that, he could run into big trouble. that's because by selling that put, mike could be forced to pay $235 for shares of the ibb even if they fall all the way to zero. >> so what do we do? >> to define his risk, mike then bought the july 225 strike put
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for $6 and created his bull put spread. but he did something else. he put the odds in his favor and here is how. between the ten bucks he collected by selling the higher strike put and the $6 he spent on the lower strike put, mike took in a total credit of 4 bucks. that's the most he could make on the trade, but now even if the ibb falls below $235, mike won't see losses until the etf falls below that high put strike price by more than the $4 he took in or below $231. below that level, mike will see losses, but by buying that $225 strike put, mike has protected himself below that level. in other words, mike found a way to do something that the greatest scientific minds haven't been able to accomplish, make money whether the shares go up, down, or nowhere at all. >> it's alive! >> and since the time of the trade the etf has surged about
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6% making this trade a winner. but doctors everywhere still need to know one thing, what will mike do with his biotech trade now. let's get straight to that question. and the answer, mike? >> the answer, very simply i think this thing -- we made about half of the money that you already can. you have to be careful with your limit orders here. i would probably close this and roll this thing out. >> carter, what do you see in the charts? >> this was the highest flying era of the market literally and it had some of the worst pounding down 20% off the march high. we think the retracement has a little more so we would be inclined to stay long this pattern. >> do you think we would reclaim those levels again? 275 was the high. >> if you look at a netflix or a price line when you get back to that high, you kind of reclaim but you falter there. we think you get there but you don't exceed it. >> could be quite the upside from here. the good news doesn't stop there. time for the upside call times two. where we look back on not one but two winners. because on that same show, what
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a good show, dan made a bullish bet on twitter and also nailed it. shares have since rallied almost 20%. what do you do now? >> this was a risk reversal. we sold a downside put and used the proceeds to buy an upside call. didn't do it for any premium whatsoever. right now the september 26 put, there's a 10% chance that will be in the money. you cover that. you sold it at 145. you cover it at 60 cents. now you have the september 37 call at the money. this is really important. that's a 50 delta. there's a 50% chance that's going to be in the money. you want to do something. that's worth a lot more than what you paid for it and i would say given the move that the stock has had, you probably spread it by selling a higher strike call, take some of the risk off the table and one other thing, mike nailed this yesterday on "fast money." he was talking about a massive buyer in september of the 50 calls. how many did they buy? 80,000 of these calls to open. >> you definitely want to stay long that call and look to
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spread it because if you take a look at what facebook did after it basically went right into the seller, when it started to rebound, it really did recover very strongly and i think a lot of people failed out too soon and they might do that, too. >> on a fundamental basis, we had the management shake-up which could portend good things to come in terms of users. >> we know and it was the point at which dan was calling for trouble. after the unlock when all the shares, you're encountering now where that event occurred. you returned to a very difficult level of considerable supply. that's basically 3940. we'd be inclined to not get long here. >> all right. coming up next, it's been a huge day for shares of intel. one big trader thinks it will get even better. find out why when "options action" returns. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ]
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[ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. all on thinkorswim humans. even when we cross our "ts" and dot our "i's", we still run into problems. that's why liberty mutual insurance offers accident forgiveness with our auto policies. if you qualify, your rates won't go up due to your first accident. because making mistakes is only human, and so are we. we also offer new car replacement, so if you total your new car, we'll give you the money for a new one. call liberty mutual insurance at... and ask us all about our auto features,
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[ bell ringing, applause ] five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-market trading. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade.
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who says the pc is dead. shares of intel surging today after the tech stalwart boost the its forecast due to strong computer demand by businesses. the excitement carried over to the options pits which saw seven times the average daily volume and some very big bullish trades. dan, what did you see today and where do you see intel heading? >> well, i mean, the option volume was off the hook and the stock was up 7%. it had to be one of the biggest gap days higher in years, and so when you think about this chart, i mean, to me i just want to bring it up here and then we'll talk about the options trade. this is an 11-year chart. it touched the ten-year highs at 30 today. one trader that was looking out in october, they took off a bullish bet. they sold 25,000 of the october 30 calls at 108. that's $2.7 million in premium and they rolled it up to the october 33 calls buying 75,000. that's about $2 million. so really when you think about it, the break even now is 12%
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higher. i mean, you're getting back to like all-time highs in the last 15 years here before the tech bubble. so to me this is not a stock that i think you want to chase up here. look at this move that we've had over the last year or so. when the company finally after missing quarter after quarter says that enterprise pc demand is a little better and they guide up 5% in the out quarter, i don't think that's like euphoric by any means. this is a level to me i think you would want to fade because the expectations now are massively high. when they report july 15th, they really need a big beat and raise for this stock to keep moving. >> we see a lot of charts like this where the stock hasn't gone anywhere for ten years and then there's a massive breakout. because they haven't gone anywhere for ten years, the breakout is more believable. >> when you're down at a well defined low and you start to gap off the bottom, that's an important thing. it's a runaway gap. when quur at the top of a range for ten years and you have something of a feeble gap, it wasn't a very convincing gap, it often is a little bit of a sort
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of an exhaustion gap wraern a breakaway gap. we very much look at it in this sense. it's a big move to a difficult level. you have eked out a slight new gain but it's not a convincing kind of thing. we would fade it. >> we're looking at ten-year chart. if you looked at a ten-year chart of revenues it doesn't tell you a really good story. i'm not going to be convinced just because of today's announcement that that's actually telling us that the secular headwinds have turned around. we've seen negative top line growth year on year for three years. that's not even keeping up with inflation. it's not a growth stock. options, maybe that might be the only way i'd be inclined to play it. >> mike makes a good point in terms of this boost we're seeing in business pcs. that's really because of xp. >> it's a very interesting move. they have new management and a new ceo in there and this company has not preannounced
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positively in years. if they're using this little bump they've gotten since microsoft stopped supporting xp because enterprise businesses went out and bought some pcs, notice they didn't say anything about the consumer market, they didn't say anything about tablets or smartphones. so really july 15th is going to be a very, very interesting report. >> three bears on intel. coming up next hour on "mad money" get yourself ready for father's day. tonight he has two family friendly stocks primed to be in your college fund. stay tuned for that. coming up next, the final call from the options pits. [ male announcer ] what if a small company became big business overnight? ♪ like, really big... then expanded? ♪ or their new product tanked? ♪ or not? what if they embrace new technology instead? ♪ imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile.
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a research tool on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.
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[ male announcer ] with millions of reviews, a visit to tripadvisor makes any destination better. ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. time now for the final call. carter? >> a great super cap tech pare trade, get long apple, short intel. >> dan? >> happy father's day to my dad and my father-in-law. >> that's it? >> yeah. >> mike. >> options are cheap so for another week that's our good news and that's what you should
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use if you want to get short intel and long apple. >> it looks like our time hasek p expired. watch "fast" for the daily segment. "mad money" starts in just a few seconds. happy father's day. have a great weekend, everybody. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. ♪ hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. you know how i feel about making friends, but family, that's another story. which is why i'm thrilled t

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