week, last week, i like them. >> my guy cam, you got to practice what you preach. nike. nike. end of the release. >> i'm melissa lee. thank you, see you back here at. meantime, jim cramer starts now. my miss is simple. to make you money. \s i'm here to level the playing feel for all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts right now. hay, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money", welcome to cramerica. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you but call me. . this can be an incredibly confusing time to be an investor. >> we're constantly flooded with all sorts of facts and fiction, and billed as all important.

of course, you know thattic be true. not every headline matters. no matter how official and full of gravitas it might sound. how the heck are you supposed to tell the difference between what matters and what doesn't? in this world of information overload, how do you know what truly deserves your attention and what you can pass on. you only have solve time to do homework, so you have to use that time wisely. this stuff comes so fast and few injure, you never had time to ask, hmm, does that even matter? you just presume it has import, even if it doesn't. that's why for my new book "get rich carefully" i look for five years from the charitable trust i talk about, to see when pieces of data were actually worth paying attention to, and which ones were overhyped and frankly unimportant. today i want to share with you

my findings. and i'm the radio, are going to do damage to your portfolio if you're not savvy. the only data that seems to have a lasting impact is the labor department monthly nonfarm payroll report. that's the report we get on the first friday of every month and it's worth every bit of focus. there's a ton of different numbers that come out. they're off and -- what happens with the big picture, but i'm telling you, forget about the weekly claims. the fact is they're almost meaningless in the grand scheme of things unless there's a definitive train in one direction, and they can be fatal as you get to the big labor department numbers. sometimes by the government's own admission, they aren't even

tallied right. how's that for credibility? also on the jobs front, the day before the big department, we get a report, data plodsing o.adp, the largest payroll processing firm. i'm telling you, ignore that adp number too. it's meaningless, people. in fact the figures have no reliability as a predictor of what the big daddy, nonfarm payroll report will actually be. remember that's the only employment report that i'm telling you you need to predict and be worried about. you do need to predict and worry about it, though. however, while you're getting the weekly figures, the adp numbers you cannot ignore. as i look back on that came on the friday after the monthly jobs report, remember, five years worth of data, i was astonished at just how important this figure can be. any disappointing employment number leaves a lasting impact

that can take weeks of declines in its wake. really. if it's followed by another bad number, you get a further decline, even if the market this fallen precipitously. after a series of bad numbers, you need to see three months of stability, no further job losses, not necessarily job gains before the market will actually stop drifting or plunging lower. i can't believe this. i did this work and couldn't believe it myself. meanwhile, the flip side is also true. new excess of the previous month. even better is when you get a job gain that's higher than expected. a big number that's better than expected, the previous month's numbers, that's the ultimate triple whammy for the bears. and can produce a spectacular performance for the bulls. now when they payroll numbers come out, they'll pick apart some seasonal adjustment, i'm telling you these people are sh

tans. they cynics are simply crafting arguments to justify their own existence or excuse their own predictions. maybe they've learned the lesson of the great recession too well and can't believe hospitals to betsy good news, and as sexy as the actual unemployment report sounds, it simply isn't as important as the sheer number of hires in the statement. that's what really matters. if you're negative on stocks, and underinvested and strongly increase the number of hires in a row, not a drop in the unemployment rate, you will my miss a terrific opportunity to raid. that's what i found after examines the last five years of bulletins form i don't blame you. for getting bullish, that's simple prudence. however, really good report coming in the wake of several flat ones can also be enough to justify some careful buys, even

if you have to pay up your positions. just to be sure, i'm quoot conscious of the fear of the fed that the economy is getting better as represented by the labor numbers. i don't care. a strong number is a good number when interest rates are as low as they have been. if you're trying to buy stocks after an excellent report, here's a tip. also gleaned from the last five years. if you wait until after 10:00 a.m. on the day a strong jobs report comes out, you will almost always get a better price than at the opening much the reason -- because after a good payroll report there's almost a huge amount of short covering. s once that buying is done, you tend to get a vacuum and the market begins to decline. wait for that moment. don't by picked off a huge -- after eating the -- i will remind you at 9:00 don't be picked off. that strength won't last for the session. you'll get better prices if you

just wait for the paniked short sellers to finish closing out the wrong-headed positions, and those who fear the fed tightening. dump their holdings. don't be worried that you miss the move. the market has plenty of room to run. i just want you to be able to get the best cost basis possible after a great monthly report. here's the bottom line. not every piece of government data really matters, but the nonfarm payroll report, that is crucial. so please don't ever ignore these numbers. they are the most impactful ones. when your eyes are glazing over from various inputs, take solace. the only that really matters, john in florida. >> what's up? >> i'm a novice. i'm uncertain of the following

question. if i purchased 1,000 shares of a company, let's say $10 today and three months later i purchased another 1,000 shares of the same company at $5, now if the stock goes up a dollar, can i take the profit on the second thousand, or must i sell the first 1,000 shares and take a lot of the dollar? >> i want you to talk to your tax guy on that. you can elect the lot, but you've got to talk to your tax guy. i want to know what he says. i don't think that specific advice is going to be helpful to you. >> hey, jim. thanks for taking my call. my question is about secular and cyclical stocks. you're always telling us to be

diversified, i'm goes over this. the most confusing thing i may have done is i like secular growth, not cyclical. cyclical means you have to have a big gdp growth. that's celgene. i think what you have to do is you have to see -- the plot hose your stocks have done against a market in good times and bad, you know, when there's growth and no growth. that's what i do. i actually have looked back using charts, 1989, 1991, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and see how they've done. you've got to do that history if you want to feel confident that you have a secular grower whose numbers don't get cut, versus a cyclical number. a whole chapter about that in "get rich carefully." sonny in illinois. >> caller: hey, jim cramer, a big chicago windy city boo-yah

to you. >> sweet. >> caller: hey, jim always taking your advice. keep on with your books. >> just a general question for you. always taking your advise about reading up on fundamentals of the company. listens. as rods now in numbers, strong fundamentals, what would your definition of pullback be? >> 5% to 6%. something that lee cooperman, when he was the research director at goldman, first 5% to 7%, take a hard look. i know it's easy to get overwhelmed by the slew of data numbers that are thrown your way every day. 8:30 a.m. on the first friday of each monday, that is the number to pay attention to. the rest of them, don't let them confuse you, but a good

employment number is good for a the stock market. don't think otherwise. "mad money" is right back.

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in this era of information overload, how do you tell what really matters to your portfolio? i think filters out the clutter and being able to focus look a laser is so important, that i devote an entire chapter to my latest book "get rich carefully" to show you what does matter and what doesn't. i'm sharing some of these gratis, though the cynics may point out i'm being shamelessly

promotional, to which i say, of course. . now the bad kind of bull, let me tell you what you should stop caring about. i know we want to presume that every piece of data released by the government, whether it's the commerce department or labor department, that somehow will elucidate terrific trades. i say, hold it. we listen to this stock, we read it, wade for analysis we pick stocks off of this. and when you do this, you think you know what you're doing. , let me tell you, it's a mistake. if you're studying the last five years of public trades which you can follow along on my charitable trust, i can tell you if the -- emphasizing most of these golf data points has been

just plain wrong. i know, that may sound inconceivable. but a lot of that has to do with what i call the data book. in advance of release, they have decided a big story, yes, there is actually a die book, though whenfuls -- now it's a key does that stroke entry. hyperbole is simply the grist of this -- day in and day out, how do you think that all those blogs get filled? with that in mind, let me warn you about one of the most overhyped reports, the monthly release of month-old minutes from the federal reserve. they're considering to be the holy grail, but i have to tell you, in reality, they mean nothing, nothing at all.

the minutes are almost a total sideshow. i knew that the fed knew nothing. first, let me explain the fixation with the fed minutes. is it releases a summary of its thinking. they wait for the release with bated breath and viewed as incredibly important. want to take action on it, but the truth is it's not actionable at all, even as so many do take action, take uninformed silly action. forget that the fed minutes are already a month old, forget that many circumstances may have changed since the last meeting. even though it should be viewed as irrelevant and often just play inaccurate. don't i know it? in the first week of august, at the beginning of the horrific period that generated into -- i

was getting hideous feedback within imagine investment firms that things can go seriously awry. over my 30-plus years on weight, i managed to meet peet earpier. hey, listen, not everything is right, but these people are people whom i trust, for the most part, and they trust me. at the time i was getting an earful from these acquaintances who i thought i wasn't doing enough to bring the real problems to light, and then one friday as i was listening to a conference call from the lamented bear stearns, i was shocked by how defense i have been and fearfulsh point-blank laying out they were having difficulties. however, the only way for a brokerage firm to prepare for difficulties is to say nothing about them, as we ultimately saw from the collapse when it came not long after.

i was getting call from several different people. there would be a huge problem ahead, a huge amount of trouble, for the entire u.s. economy, so when i showed up for my usual stock trading segment on "street signs" that day, i was steamed, steamed so badly i violated my rule about trying to be considered and not hotheaded. i just went blising on air. i started out slowly how thing, and then began to rant, questioning the fed's ability to do the job as erin burnett gingerly tried to calm me down. >> i have talked to the heads on in almost every one of these firms and he has no idea what it's like out there. none! and bill poole has no idea what it's like out there! my people have been in this game for 25 years, and they are losing their jobs, and these firms are going to go out of business, he's nuts, they're nuts, they know nothing!

we now know how everything turned out. the economy collapsed as the fed hell tight to the view that there was really nothing at all. it may have been the worst economic policy blunder since the herbert hoover administration. it was a distinctly better late than never affair. here's something i didn't know at the time and cuts right to the core how useless the monthly fed machines are the. the fed releases the funt transcripts five users after the meetings, so i later learned they met soon after, and as the 5-year-old transcripts show, my rant actually came up in the conversation. it came up as a laugh line. they actually made a point of ridiculing my spot-on, as we soon learned, it was a dark comedy. not after my rant, they said that all was well and those who feared real stress were just plain wrong. when i read that, i always --

now who think these are all important. i actually believed that i and my sources might be too negative. my sources were wrong. sending out a bulletin on august 17th, 2007, says, quote, at last i believe the worst is behind us. >> even though i hadding wright about the crisis to come and did change my mind soon after from that bulletin, i ended up putting in too much faith at that point, and of course they tunneled are turned out to be too late. by my charitable -- i actually vimted the most important tenet of what doesn't matter on wall street. i put my faith in month-old minutes from the fed instead of the actual actions. since then i've not learned to put in too much trust in these out-of-date notes. the bottom line -- i needed to

do something that i think is different. i need you to ignore the fed minutes. don't make any serious decisions when they're released. given the furious and volatile action that occurs, it probably seems ridiculous to, but they are irrelevant. they're dodges that throw you on the the scent and cause you to make bone-headed decisions. if think they're good for is gives you buying opportunities in me have your favorite stocks by creating unwarranted and yes, undeserved pullbacks. after the break, i'll try to make you more money.

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the stock market like everything else these days is just hostage to the 24/7 media cycle. that means if you're going to make a token effort to actually follow your invests you'll be bombarded by all sorts of overshaped information. as your investing coach, it's my job to keep you from being misled from making those mistakes, which is why i devoted an entire chapter to what matters and what doesn't in my

latest book "get rich carefully." let me give you a story. once a month we gets reports from the big invest firms about their positions specifically what they decided to buy or cut back on. we here in the media pore over what's known as 13-f forms aggressively trying to find out what stocks they might be getting into or may be getting sick up. then a lot of people making the mistake they must be wrong if they happened to -- so what do people do when they read these? they sell them. they dump these stocks even after they have done an enormous ham of homework. they iconic moan managers have to know more, right? of course the most -- is -- warning buffett. i'm telling you right now right here this is a mugs game. you should never dump a stock you have conviction in simply

because you found out some famous money manager is selling. how do i know this? first of all, selling is not like buying, we have no idea why some hedge fun might be selling something. maybe the manager has left the firm. maybe the stock is in a sector of the economy that's fallen out of favor with the money manager in question, at least short term. maybe some hot-shot investor thought he had insight, then turned around and sold it when the insight proved wrong. maybe the money manager you're trying to follow is just trying to free up cash for an even better investment that he's got up his sleeve, or maybe he has real reasons for selling that we'll never know. the point, though, is that you don't know, you can't know, and basing your investment decisions on something so inherently unknowable is always a bad idea. now, i've been a painful example of how selling off thinks filings tends to be a huge

mistake. years ago my charitial trust we decided to sell a terrific railroad, union pacific. we told it in the '70s. take a look where that stock is now, in large part because warren buffett's 13-f showed at that moment he exited his position in the stock. they blew it out, we should blow it out, right? isn't that what people think? what a regret. not only did they go into double, but buffett bought the competitor, burlington northern, because he loved the rails so much. there's no reason for him to keep holding stock in one railroad when he was about to buy another one, lock stock and barrel. it was a huge mistake to assume something was wrong with union pacific just because buffett sold it. the truth is his selling was merely a symptom for the love of the sector and he only sold it to stay diversified ahead of outright acquiring burlington northern. don't jump to negative

conclusions when a big-name investor sells something. you've done your homework. it should better large in your mind when you take action off they bulletins. this was a valuable lesson, with you that the charitable trust managed to profit from. yes, by deciding to exit his position after he had a spat with its ceo, irene rosin felt. if you bought after the news broke that buffett had sold, which was a well-covered event, you caught what tunneled out to be a terrific bargain, in order to create value for shareholders. and that breakup resulted in plentiyful gains. you need to take those filings and acted upon with a grain of solid. if you like a stock that a big-name investor is selling and you've done the home work, if anything you might wall to use that weakness to buy more of the

stock. you were nell bay a as having taken a positions. remember they're a month old by the time you receive them. case in point. a fund i admired tremendously took a monster stake in freeport mcmorn. i knew they had did superb work and had an excellent record, so i decided to buy freeport, a stock i had been debating whether or not to buy my for my charitable trust. you know what? it was a disaster. >> the house of pain >> freeport was at $87 when the s.e.c. released the showing. not long after the recession hit and guess what? the stock went down to $8, yes, 87 to 8. all the work the firm may or may not have done didn't matter and

shortly after that, the firm closed. i was able to escape my position before it did too much damage to my charitable trust, because i did my own homework which showed the profits were decelerating rapidly. that got the trust into trouble. when i talked to individual investors about positions they're thinks of taking, way too often i think so-and-so bought it, and i know the manager is terrific. believe me you don't know why he bought it or even if he'll be right. if the idea goes awry, the manager won't be there to tell you what went wrong. he doesn't care about you, and you shouldn't care about him. end of story. in fact all the years i'm only found one big-name manager who's worth following into a position. that's nelson pellets. pellets is what's known as an activist investor. he try little, pellets is

fabulous, giving you huge returns, even after they become public knowledge. even with activist investors, it's tempting to try to piggyback on the activist, as you think thee doing the heavy lifting for you. my research has shown by the time the 13-f filing become public, it's already too late. pretty much ruins the potential up side. of all the activists i could find, pelts wall street the only one you could outperform the averages by piggybacking on his petitions after they became public knowledge. for all the rest, you would have done better by investing in the s&p 500 index fund. the bottom line -- never following big-time managers. if you want to be a good investor stick to your convictions. the simple fab is piggybacking off the big boys will not let you beat the averages. in short, never sell just

because an icon ic manager is buys. it's lazy, and worse, it doesn't work. danielle in kansas, danielle? >> caller: boo-yah, jim. >> how are you? >> caller: i'm well, thanks. i'm wondering how worried should investors being with the increased lending and how do investors know the inflation is coming? >> i still use the producer price index, but more importantly i follow the bond markets. if interest rates start going higher, that's a tell of inflation if we do not have strong economic growth. i'm giving you the scenarios i have historically looked at. i am not concerned about inflation. i'm more concerned about deflation. paul in texas, please? >> caller: boo-yah, jim. why wire retires next year, so i read your book "stay mad for

life." thank. >> you at the end you list about 20 stocks, 10 to 15 funds, because of the housing bubble burst and financial meltdown, would you consider revising that list, adding any companies? >> it's one of the reasons frankly, why i wrote "get rich carefully" there's a lot of new themes that didn't exist when i wrote that book. that was written a lot time, not to say you have to go buy the new books, but the markets changed rather rapidly, rather dramatic, and i've addressed that in "get rich carefully. "now go to sid in texas. >> caller: big burly boo-yah in corpus christi, texas, where the good winds are for sailing and the redfish are tailing, with the volatility in gold what should i baby boomers do about the percent of gold in our portfolios? >> i want you to think of it as

a currency. we're in america, all we ever think about is the dollar. i regard gold as a hedge against the dollar. i thinkic have 10% of your money in gold, i prefer the gld or coins, up to 20%, 20% is probably pretty high, but i think it's a great hedge against everything else you own in life. follow the leader. how about doing your own homework. i don't want you ever blindly to follow the big guys based on the window that is the f-13 -- the 13-f filings, because that is just the height of lazyness, and it doesn't work. stay with cramer.

turin i'm teaching you how

to navigate your way through an environment where you're constantly inundated with information about the economy and individual companies it's often overhyped, overblown and just plain not as important as it seems. there's so much thick you need to keep track of, that you simply can't afford to get sidetracked, or worse, derailed. of course, nothing is going to come out and say, of course this news isn't -- but we're telling you anyway. especially the people in the blogs who are just desperate for information to write about. bond here, on the show and in high latest book. >> don't get caught up in giant contract wins. wet guess these all the time in the lightning round. whether they be engineering,

don't get caught up. several times in the past i've been way too jbeil listen and enthusiastic myself. for seemingly big jobs in reality that barely mattered, failed to move the earnings needle. transocean experienced a sickening slide. do you know all through this decline they kept receiving contract wins, but at the end, it doesn't matter. when the price of crude droppings dramatically, you have to presume the drilling projects will ultimately get canceled, or at the vest least the company will have to give customers major discounts if it wants to deep doing business. that's why even with all these wins, transocean turned out to be a gigantic loser. the stocks sank from $95 to $50 during the greatest streak of contract wins in the company's

history. not only did they have energy exposure, but also a huge losses from older contracts that went over budget. nullifying the new business that i mistakenly thought was so important. you know what? the exact same thing happens in tech all the time. getting a huge contract win, will take a contract win from hewlett-packard. when the stock does nothing, you might think, wow you've just been given a wonderful chance to buy. nope, the stocks are right now to react and you're wrong if you think it's an opportunity. i know, that's because you look at them and are thinking it should. that's because sometimes the only thing that does move a stock is the quarterly earnings report itself. i learned this the real hard why

when el you go frustrated with deere. they put out press release, including the good news, lots of new big equipment purchases. i was salivating. we got crop report after crop report, i couldn't believe the stock hadn't moved yet. what a great moment to buy. sure enough, when you company reported, the quarter was terrific, but deere is a famously cautious company or maybe i should say infamously cautious, so even when things are good, the management and often simply stresses the negatives, it is amazing. deere failed to turn all that good news into the profits we expected. saying the good news might not continue, no matter how many new orders. so don't get confused about this. it doesn't work. now there is an important corollary, though. even though i don't like buys

stocks, you may need to sell the stock of a company that loses a big contract that's been on the box. my charitable trust with a company cbi, a large engineering construction, announced that a huge oil and gas customer had canceled a contract the company wanted to build a gigantic liquefied -- the analyst presumed that it would add a significant amount of money for many years to come. when we saw the news, we hesitated. we thought perhaps the -- so cbi could make up the loss, but the market didn't hesitate. the stock got hammered. because analysts felt compelled to cut their estimates as they built the australian project into their models already. so the models had to change for the worse to reflect the cancellation. here's the bottom line. do not get bam boozeled, or tech companies or oil plays, or machinery companies. at the end of the day, what

matters for most stocks are earnings, not orders. by the same token, if a company has a major contract, you probably need to skee dadle, because the analysts will cut numbers, and that had punish the stock even as ultimately a year later was meyer than where it had been when the giant contract was canceled. stick with cramer.

when picking stocks, there were so many ways you can find yourself being led off-course, which why too many i'm helping you sort out from the things that should matter to the things that don't matter. the ones you simply shouldn't care about at all, something i

devoted a whole chapter to in "get rich carefully" my latest book. as much as i love the way that it's democrat advertised information, it's made it possible for -- even when that opinion is based on faulty logic. it will lose you money. so here's the concept that i see here being waved around all the time, even though it is a serious money loser. i call it the relative valuation rationalization. bear with me. i want you never, ever to buy a stock just because it's relatively cheaper than the rest of its cohort or the market as a whole. all stocks are not created equal. some deserve to be worse less than others. this is a mistake i've made myself, back when the trust owned cisco, the networking giant, we were super frustrated with the underperformance as the stock seemed to tick down a little bit every day. we noted in the bulletin that

cisco had a higher -- but somehow strangely it sold at a lower priced earnings multiple than the average stock. in short cisco looked cheaper than the market. this is the kind of complicated jargon that money managers use all the time. theoretically, yes, when you're trying to figure out how a stock should be valued, you can look at the growth rate. and all else equal, you should play a higher priced multipan than you would for the s&p as a whole, right? a company that grows 20% faster should not be trading at a discount, which was pretty much the case when the charitial trust was loading up on cisco. hoefr there was one fatal flaw in our analysis. cisco's growth rate, sure it was better, but it was slowing. in other words, when you make a relation appear bet, namely that

one stock seems cheaper than another, you have to be sure the reason for the cheapness isn't going away, making the stock more expensive down the road, not cheaper, and that's exactly what happened with cisco. the stock's cheapness didn't matter at all, and the symptom was hammered mercilessly, leaving the charitial trust holding the bag. so here is the bottom like. you just because often they are inexpensive for a reason. if you buy something merely because it's cheap, it may simply end up getting cheaper down the line. "mad money" is back after the break.

hey, we've got to get to some of the tweets you've been sending me at jim cram cramer #madtweets. first off from jeffrey. should a young investor worry about the market level leveling out to fair values? i don't even want you worrying about the market, that's the big misnomer. worry about the company's stocks that you own. do the homeworks, get conviction and stop worries about the fair value of the market. that's not what this show is

about. now, let's go to @soapboxwire. there's no empirical evidence whatsoever that being dropped will hurt them. hewlett pack and and alcoa i'm thinking kufb that case. and if the real dust in 24 's on posed to the fake dust -- selling the strung, thanks, boss. one of my mantras, sell into strange, buy weakness. i care about the price. if you chase, you won't get a good price, and therefore the odds dramatically go against you when it comes to making both long-term and short-term money. a tweet, j.c., you're b & b kid friendly, you need a place to stay, man, are we ever. we love kids at the place, we don't like dogs. we like kids, and i'll serve breakfast on the weekends for you. by the way, i can make poached

eggs martha stewart style, a little vinegar. let's go to a tweet -- which of your books would recommend for a more experienced trader/investor. "real money" was written as a hand book for people who came to work at my old hedge fund. otherwise i think get rich carefully is more in sync with the current market, though the market has changed. confused with jim cramer, well, it's a heck of a lot better to be confused with louis ck than vladimir lenin. remember, we don't like to buy stocks that are selling at two times or more of the growth rate, because if they screw up, this stock gets eviscerated. that's one of our rules. here's one from @mattcan. look, i've got to tell you, i

get almost no sleep, but it's a hereditary thing. maybe the secret is, i love my job. don't tell the bosses. "mad money" is back after the break. i spent my entire childhood seeing the world in reverse, and i loved every minute of it. but then you grow up and there's no going back. but it's okay, it's just a new kind of adventure. and really, who wants to look backwards when you can look forward?

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