good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan. andrew ross-sorkin is off today. this is a big day for us this time around. today we'll get chicago pmi and pending home sales and the dallas fed survey. tomorrow manufacturing pmi, ism manufacturing, construction spending and june auto sales. then on wednesday the adp report and factory orders. and janet yellen will speak at the imf conference. and on thursday, the big june employment report. we will get the numbers on thursday because on friday the market is closed due to the fourth of july. and international trade

services, pmi, international trade and ism nonmanufacturing numbers that day as well. forecasters say the economy probably added 218,000 jobs in june to make five straight months of job gains of more than 200,000. that's something we have not seen since the end of 1999 before the dot com bubble burst. the bulls are looking to close the books on a successful first half of the year. the s&p 500 is up more than 6% this year following a jump of 30% in 2013. if the market closed the year at current levels, 2014 would be the best three-year run for stocks since the 1997 to 1999 period of time. >> it's weird. it's like a weird goldberg thing the way they do this. sometimes if it was the first or second of the month with the first friday, they may do it the next friday. they do it weird. other times we have been here on fridays when some markets are closed and the stock market is closed -- >> good friday. >> it's a lesson here, the only

people at cnbc that have to come here -- >> joe is winding you up for when we walked in this morning. he's like, i'm not coming in on friday. >> it's just -- i want to be there. it's not so much friday during the day, it's that thursday night. i want to be able to -- >> enjoy thursday night. >> barbecue or something instead of having to go to bed at 8:00 or 8:30. and this time it's a jobs survey and a claims number. >> which we are excited about. >> we are excited it's not friday. >> we are excited for the number, too. >> it is an important number because have you seen the big argument among all the twitter people about whether we are in a recession. and a lot of them -- there are people that are sort of aligned with my thinking on why the economy has been weak, and that's because of the government activism or the fed or the obama administration. and they all are so sure that

government causes us to be a below par recovery. they are so sure that they want it to be a recession. so it's not a recession because the employment number has come down to the mid-60s, but then they have an answer for that saying it's the participation rate. so they are saying -- >> you don't want a bad number on thursday. >> no. i always want a good number. but they are basically saying that the economy is much weaker than the government's letting on. the market looks like it's not that -- indicating the economy is not that weak because it's so high, but they attribute that to the fed. >> then you have the bank of international settlement saying the reason the markets are at these levels doesn't make sense with what we are seeing around the globe. they say because of the central banks, and they would argue what we have seen with the market is because of what the central banks around the world have been doing liquiditywise. >> i saw something on some

economists saying there was a bad day of reckoning coming. this was a -- it was that crazy fight night guy that wrote something on zero -- it did sort of -- it was kind of depressing and just said, look, when you've got governments awarding, you have government workers awarding themselves pensions, which is what happens when you have government union because you are negotiating with yourself and no one there to take care of the taxpayer, so when you have unproductive workers allowed to give themselves their own retirement benefits for 35 years, everything is breaking down, who do you blame? the high end and get into the class warfare and the whole world gets into sort of a civil unrest story because of the wealth income disparity. >> i was reading one of the original investors of amazon

that has clearly done well. >> was this in preparation for the documentary yesterday? >> no, this is just something he had written. >> i burned the popcorn again. >> i did dvr it to watch. i was reading this guy from one of the early investors in amazon saying they are coming with pitch forks if we don't do something to change the quality issues. >> but it shouldn't be that the people that have earned success and got to a certain point are suddenly the ones with the pitch forks are after. it is not them, it is usually government policies that have skewed things to the left or right. you can't blame people for doing well, can you? >> no, but i think -- >> you can't blame the most productive part of society where all the wealth income or all the wealth is being built.

you can't hold it against them that -- it is basically what we are doing right now. anyway, among the other major first half market themes, a surge in m&a activity. year to date, the global deal line surging to 1.8 trillion from 75% a year ago. and that's the highest level in several years. the firm is being fueled by cash-rich corporate giants with strong balance sheets. and it is not necessarily a lot of stock. a lot is being used with cash and people would argue that when you hear from efron -- you were here for that. who was the other guy? >> ralph. >> ralph, right. they didn't definitively say it was all great. some of sit is looking to cut

costs in some way. we'll look at the other stats. companies have raised half a trillion dollars selling shares so far this year. that's the highest total since 2007 before the financial crisis. and among the catalyst companies, original high markets and private firms are looking to sell out of investments they have made before the crisis to get out of those things. they had to hold on longer than they normally would. >> i was looking at the vicks on pace for the fifth consecutive month for losses down 39% over that period. >> yeah. so less volatility. >> yeah, less, less, less volatility if you really look at it. in corporate news for you, the justice department is expected to announce a settlement with bnp paribas over u.s. sanctions violations. the board met over the weekend to give final approval to the

settlement. it's said to involve a record $8.9 billion fine and a guilty plea. also, ken feinberg is said to announce the terms of the gm recall compensation plan today. he'll be outlining what the automaker plans to pay victims from crashes caused by bad ignition switches. ceo mary barra says there's no cap on payments saying they could go into the hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions of dollars. president obama is set to stayed bob mcdonnell as the new secretary of veterans affairs. it makes you wonder who would want that. he's got a military career from west point. joining us with more on this development, senior washington correspondent, john harwood, had a long career at proctor & gamble. at the very end he was kind of -- i don't know, there were activists involved and people didn't like how proctor and

gamble was going, but he had a pretty good career there and in the military. why do you think someone takes a job like this? >> well, i think this is a west point graduate who served in the army who left his job at p&g earlier than he had expected to. and he wants to make a contribution. this is something that clearly is a huge management challenge. when you run a big company like png, that's pretty good preparation. now he's got to trade barbs from bill ackman for barbs from congress. i don't know if that's a good or bad trade, but he appears to be willing to take it. >> for what has come out about the v.a. -- is it fixable? a lot of the stuff that's come out recently is that it's really a systemic sort of -- i don't know how it snuck up on us

because remember it wasn't more than six months ago paul crudeman and other liberals were talking about how government health care can work. look how good this wealth operates when it finally starts working. and then we saw the tide come down and realized it was closed. but it's been a quick turnaround. >> this has been a -- you're right, this has been sneaking up on us for quite a long time in slow motion. sort of in plain site. everybody is known with the return of flooding from iraq and afghanistan, the health care itself at the v.a., veterans like it and it's the problem with getting into the system. and it has been an antiquated

time. i think the president is hoping someone with bob mcdonnell can get that done. do you like the fact that he reached into your hometown for the guy running that company? >> i don't know a lot about bob mcdonnell. it's a conservative company. >> he's giving money to republicans including mitt romney. >> yeah. he's a west point grad and there's a lot of people that would like to beat the v.a. it's the -- those are the guys we really owe. >> john boehner who knows pg&e very well since it is close to his district praised the pick yesterday. everybody who has been on the participating side of this discussion took an approach

yesterday of saying, bob mcdonnell is a great guy, we want to hear what his plans are. bernie sanders of vermont said we need more doctors and we need more resources at the v.a. you have boehner and jeff miller who chairs the veterans committee in the house saying, we need other reforms for the system. and we've got to see whether the president has empowered mcdonald to implement those. >> i think sanders is -- >> it's the same kind of rationing, if we keep losing doctors for whatever reason in the overall system, we're going to feel it with our overall system. what do you expect, they are overworked? they are working how much now and you can't double the patient load because there are not enough hours in the day. therefore, it takes five, six, seven weeks to get an

appointment and how do you fix it without any more dogs, john? funny how it works with supply and demand. we learn it again and again. actually, we don't learn it again and again. what else is going on? we have to go, john, but i'm trying to think of anything else happening. summer is different with soccer and i can't believe that the united states is grinding to a halt. >> joe, i think you have a perfect time for the game against belgium. forefought on tuesday. >> if it is tuesday -- i didn't get to watch any of them yesterday and they were both -- although i did see dennis mill who are u er who used to be a colleague here. the penalty kicks is like settling the masters with a

windmill hole. one playoff hole will settle who wins. >> that's a great compareson. >> joe, do you buy the ann coulter argument about america watching soccer? >> i'll tell you what i understand. and i said this last week, you know, i am comfortable and like the world. i'm not saying it takes a village to raise a child. but you need to watch competition. it's like the olympics. there are some companies that don't have the infrastructure for where there is going to be a great golfer or -- there's so much equipment needed. >> sounds like you are secure enough in americanism that you can enjoy this without getting

the heebie-jeebies from it. >> you don't have a problem with soccer, you love it. >> becky, you love it? >> i love it. i played 13 seasons. i love it. >> you played 13 subpoenaeasons? >> this is like that commercial where that girl asks grant hill, you play basketball? and he says, yeah, i was a pro and -- >> because you were a pro soccer player? i didn't realize that, joe. >> joe, i don't think you can even the score. >> how much have you played? >> i have never played soccer. >> thank you. this is like me talking to grant hill. >> becky, what position did you play? >> what's that? >> what position did you play? >> right striker and center half. >> so you were a scoring player. >> it's not field hockey. >> did you play in college? >> no, no, i played in high school. and i will admit i played rec because where i graduated we didn't have a girls' team.

>> next argument we have on the show is going to penalty kicks. and joe, i'll see if you can stop becky from scoring. >> did you see the columbia goal? you saw that goal? everybody did. >> which one was that? >> well, the other team -- columbia was playing uruguay, and the uruguay guy headed it back to a columbian guy and then it went back in and the club columbian guy headed it here and then it went in. >> that was beautiful. >> almost as good as the one -- there have been three or four great ones. >> you have no problem admitting you love it. >> i like it, i do. but like i said, it's like the olympics. >> just don't bite anybody, joe. >> no.

as the guy said, suarez said, these things happen. i mentioned that, someone said, have you ever felt like biting someone? and i mentioned andrew. i think you said that, actually. and i -- biting, hitting, kicking, something, yeah. he's not here. >> if you ever get the impulse to bite him, just think about it and rub his feet instead. >> that's a good idea. >> the corky ceo is rubbing his feet. john, thank you, great to see you. >> how are the nationals doing? they are barely above .500, john? >> well, they are a half game out. >> the reds won again, but you don't have anyone like the brewers. we are chasing the brewers. we are above .500 now but still like -- >> hey, joe? >> yes. >> did you see bryce harper hit three home runs in his stunt two

days ago? >> is that on the minor league nationals team or something? >> yeah. >> that's more detail than i'm following. >> i think he's ready to come up. >> john, thank you. see you soon. let's get more on the markets as we kickoff the holiday shortened trading week and find out if there could be fireworks ahead for stocks. joining us is the chief investment strategist at raymond james. and with us is michelle girard at rbs, the chief economist. i want to ask you about the lead story in the financial times today. they are suggesting that the capital markets, they are calling them euphoric capital markets are not up to snuff with financial reality. this is a warning from the bank of international settlements, what do you think? >> i have to say that i am concerned that you were speaking about a day of reckoning to some extent. i think that's something we'll be facing over the near term,

but i look at what is going on and some of the markets. and i look for the fixed income market with the tight spreads and high-yield bonds. very little additional yields for buying some of the companies. the debt of some of the companies versus a treasury. i think that there are worrisome signs with the fed to some extent -- janet yellen is speaking about financial stability. i think this is an important issue and a day of reckoning when it is time for the fed to reverse course because i do think that the markets are very complace complacent. >> the central bankers are responsible and is what the international bank says, so what do you think? >> we just had our policy meeting and people on the fixed income side are bearish because of the tight spreads and all the

people on the equity side are bullish because the evaluations don't look that opaque to me at this stage of the cycle. i think we are in the a bull market and i think it's got years left to run. we are nowhere near you. i have to keep telling them earnings have tripled since 2008. things are going better and that's really all the equity markets care about, are things getting better or worse? things are getting better. >> you make it sound like the central banks are not responsible for any of this? you don't think the central banks have tried to push investors into further risk down the line, a little bigger risk positions than they might have taken otherwise? >> i don't know if they attempted to push them into it butit's been at the margin to have liquidity in the system. the fed did the right thing back

in 2008. we don't think the fed should have bailed out the banks. if we did, we wouldn't be under a depression, but if you travel around the country and travel around the world, things are getting better and the equity markets are reflecting that. >> yeah, i do want to be clear, again, i'm not a strategist but even from my economic standpoint and a macro standpoint. the fundamentals are there in. making money in the modest growth, all of that, i'm not saying the stock market is elevated because of fed liquidity, but i do think there's a focus on the economy and trying to bring down the rates low and not have a focus on this is setting the stage in some areas of the financial markets where ultimately there will be a cost to be paid for all of the liquidity.

>> yeah, just in terms of the inflation picking up down the road? >> well, it may be the pricing it has been for the last two. the capital requirements, there's the ability of shock absorbence in the future. some of the companies may have provided a buffer in the future in case this happens again. >> jeff, that's an interesting point. what do you think? >> we are in a secular bull market. there are things to put headwinds in it with the economic data.

i think what my friend talks about is for real. there's political change in the wind and to elect smarter policies over the next five years. i think there's a lot of things going right. >> michelle, let me just ask you before we let you go with the jobs numbers on thursday, what are you expecting? >> the truth is, we all fill cheerful it is 200,000 for five straight months. you know, we are slowly improving and need to see job growth at 250,000 to 300,000 if you want the economy to accelerate sustainable to a 3% growth rate. >> does 2,000 leave you in a comfortable position with the fed but not so much that the fed is willing to help out. thank you for joining us. great talking to both of you. when we return, do higher paid ceos do a better job in we

have the results of a new study. and facebook playing with your emotions. the social networking could be social net work using millions and millions of users. is it a billion yet?

welcome back. time for the executive edge. facebook users reacting today to news that the social network manipulated the news feeds of over half a million randomly selected users in 2012 as part of a mood experiment. facebook changed the number of positive and negative posts that users saw with the goal of trying to examine how emotions can be spread on social media. joe, today people are not too happy about it learning they were manipulated. >> what was it again? >> they put positive and negative stories in their news feed and they would flip it around for different people to see how it would alter their mood. >> every day it selectively puts positive and negative -- from the new york times, they completely manipulate what i read. >> maybe it's a big science experiment that they are doing just to test you. >> maybe. this was not "the new york times," this was facebook in this case, right? this is one big op-ed section. >> the reason people found out about it is they were doing it for studies. researchers just posted the

results of the study and people said, wait a second, you were manipulating us through that time? >> you were guinea pigs. >> without realizing it. >> that's why it's good to stay completely objective. i have no idea what you're talking about. >> with facebook? >> yeah. >> and you lost your microphone. >> and twitter becomes less and less -- >> you're still on twitter. >> and i watch how other people use it. faber was like promoting his documentary. but what would i use it for? >> well, i use it to find news. i mean, i don't know -- >> you watch your feed. that doesn't mean your tweeting but you may tweet out some news. >> sometimes i do but more often as staying abreast of what's happening if you are out and not near a television or computer. if you are just following twitter, that's actually how i found out about the boston bombing. i was somewhere where i couldn't be doing anything else. >> well, i watch the 100 people that i follow. it's almost like selective, the people that watch -- the people

that watch msnbc watch msnbc. >> do you follow me still? >> i follow you, i think. and then there are people that just want to watch fox and watch fox. and there are people that watch -- if you want to know where the plane is, you would watch cnn. or what about the whale. >> what whale? >> i don't know. one of the whales at sea world was mistreated or something. >> right. they did have a documentary on that. a new study says higher paid ceos tend to perform worse in the long run. companies that pay their chief executive in the top 10% are negative at normal returns over the next few years. ceo pay has risen 725% since 1978. during the same period, the paid average price for employees is up 10%. >> boy. >> waiting for commentary. >> this is our ceo compensation.

that's one of the things with the whole income inequality. we are sure that it's caused by ceos. that's where all of it -- and if you do the math, that's not what -- you can tax every ceo at 100% and it wouldn't do one -- in fact, you could tax the top whatever percent that you're looking at. all of it at 100% and it doesn't solve the problem for the economy not growing. it doesn't. and the envy part of looking at the whole. any democratic system by definition is going to have some people that have more and some people that have less. and just, you know, firing up class warfare and envy is not the way to do it. >> education is a problem as one of them, having the ability to

get an education like you did in the past. college is much more and it is tougher to get the loans. >> it's always been tough and there are ways that some people are able to -- what is really tough is that the people that we, this administration is helping, are the ones getting hurt the most right now. >> by some of these policies, yes. >> the middle class and the lower class have done poorly in the past five years because of growth coming out of this last recession. if you want to blame someone, wage income and all of it. when we come back, we'll talk about the president's pick to clean up the v.a. mess and the other stories buzzing around capitol hill for the second half of 2014. ben white will join us from politi politico. and zillow is getting a big apple partner. that's coming up next in the next half hour of "squawk box." stick around. okay, es it bother anybody else

that the mime is talking? frrreeeeaky! [ male announcer ] savings worth talking about. state farm. if yand you're talking toevere rheuyour rheumatologistike me,! about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain. this is humira helping me lay the groundwork. this is humira helping to protect my joints from further damage. doctors have been prescribing humira for ten years.

humira works by targeting and helping to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. humira is proven to help relieve pain and stop further joint damage in many adults. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal events, such as infections, lymphoma, or other types of cancer, have happened. blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure have occurred. before starting humira, your doctor should test you for tb. ask your doctor if you live in or have been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. take the next step. talk to your doctor. this is humira at work.

good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernan along with becky quick. andrew ross-sorkin is off today. the high court said the video streaming company violated copyright law by using tiny antennas to broadcast tv content online. scalia talked about what the actual law is for copyright and how it dictates. back in ten years ago when the dvr came through, and by one vote it was deemed to be

acceptable to be okay. and that this one theoretically was a tough one for some of the conservative justices that were ready to let it go and the liberal justices said no. >> it was a 6-3 vote, right? >> yes, 6-3. scalia, thomas -- >> and who was the third? >> probably alito. but in other words, saying the copyright law as it stands, maybe you shouldn't allow it but it is not precluded under a the copyright law. it is not for the supreme court to continue to fix if there's something wrong with the law, they shouldn't be interpreting it so that the end should be done by the supreme court. the congress should write a law rather than it go to the supreme court. >> that could go either direction. people weren't ready for what way that was going.

>> he's right, within three days, there you go shutting down service. you were a subscriber? you were trying to rip off our accountant? >> well, i also forgot my user name and password and couldn't use it anymore, but i did get the e-mail saying southeast and desist, cease and desist. >> i come up with a combination of pets names and birthdays and you never remember them. superheroes -- >> nobody watch this. >> i'm skinner in now thanks to the joe kernan diet. >> it's tough, isn't it? >> it's tough love. >> is that and insult? >> what did you say. i said i am working at something

now, monitoring calories. >> you are like -- okay. i'm monitoring all my body functions to see why i look like this. i'm like, it's from the food! >> it was actually -- >> it's from the food! push yourself back. >> let's be precise. it would be a device to count the number of calories in. and you were like, it's too many. >> there's a device called a mirror. >> there you go. >> it is what you said. >> by the way, you look fantastic. >> you are like a vampire. do you show up in the mirror? not like this, you don't. not like this. >> that has nothing to do with this. >> all right, you're welcome. ben white is here to talk about some of the washington stories that have been out there. it's been a couple of weeks now that hillary clinton has been taking a beating for what she's been saying about wealth or not being wealthy or where it comes down.

how much of an impact does this have on her potential candidacy? >> it impacts it in a couple ways. at the margin she could think about whether or not she wants to go through this. all the questions about how she made her money, how much money her husband has and how much money her husband has and how they made it. but this is going to be a brutal fight all along the way, but elizabeth warren would be the model for this but she's not running. speaking to other specialist groups, she's amassed hundreds of millions in speeches. what does she say to them? is she going to give us the kind of reform we want or is she the person of -- how she convinced

the left. it's a good piece and we are told there's a lot of enthusiasm for hillary. but the more democrats that talk about it and being a hypocrite -- >> there's no way in her dna it's possible for her to not run. >> i tend to agree with you. >> she doesn't have one iota of the ability to not run. >> that could be. >> move to new york to become a yankees fan. and then to serve as a senator. and then to -- >> the other guy, the husband -- don't you think it's the co-president? >> if she gets through a challenge on the left and gets

the nomination, the democrats who are worried about the policies to help the rich aren't going to the republican candidate. >> what is the number of democrats who say they like her? >> it is very high. >> it's like 90% or something. >> but republicans respect her for making all that. >> some of the comments she made, i think it's defensiveness about it and the fact she dps being among the truly well off to pay lower tax rates on capital gain and income. that distracts people as disingenuous and that she has not embraced her wealth. and the other question is how she made it. people will respect a wealthy candidate who earned ways through creating jobs and business. she made it through speaking fees, book fees, whatever other means, but i is traditionally how people get healthy.

if there's a challenge in the general, it could dampen enthusiasm for her and republicans will run a ton of ads saying she's saying one thing about dealing with economic equality but look where she stands in the universe of the economic inequality. run ads with her speaking at goldman sachs. she's a hypocrite. >> on the ranking, book fees and speech fees are above the business that you started with private equity. >> that's the flip side. >> you can certainly make the case that he'll have bigger money issues than hillary will. he got unfairly vilified for -- >> just like all of them. >> he made $104 million. >> if not hillary then who runs for the democrats? >> i think the country needs to

move further left. and i think this country is ready. i think the country is ready to move further left. if hillary decides not to go, he's there. he popped up saying i'm a course coarse man. this is a in a moment in history where having a lot of money is a problem. >> ben, thank you for coming. talk to you soon. what the dow could look like 25 years from now. and transforming the box office. how much did the latest sequel rake in this weekend? find out, next.

thank ythank you for defendiyour sacrifice. and thank you for your bravery. thank you colonel. thank you daddy. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance can be one of them. if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.

at the weekend box office," transformers: age of distinction" earned more than $201 million from international territories. >> you still can't say robot. >> is shia in this one? >> no, this is marky mark. you saw shia chasing a homeless guy around for a mcdonald's bag. >> first he offered to give him $10,000. >> i know. he was drinking some kind of margarita all afternoon, among other things. >> he was smoking pot in the theater at cabaret. >> i have never seen pot cause

someone to chase someone around. actually, for the fries. >> there you go. it all makes sense. >> now i'm connecting the dots now. now it's making sense to me. >> you might pay $10,000 for fries. anyway, when we come back, a powerhouse partnership in new york real estate. the largest broker hooking up with zillow. find out what this means for sales. "squawk box" will be right back. o in the nation in new private sector job creation... with 10 regional development strategies to fit your business needs. and now it's even better because they've introduced startup new york... with the state creating dozens of tax-free zones where businesses pay no taxes for ten years. become the next business to discover the new new york. [ male announcer ] see if your business qualifies. the porter was so incredibly... careful... careless... with our bags.

and the room they gave us -- it was... beautiful. a broom closet. but the best part but the worst part was the shower. my wife drying herself with the... egyptian cotton towels... shower curtain... defined that whole vacation for her. don't just visit new york. visit tripadvisor new york. [ male announcer ] with millions of reviews, a visit to tripadvisor makes any destination better.

really? new york's largest residential brokerage firm douglas elleman is coming to the with zillow to form a marketing partnership. it will streamline and enhance the home search process for millions of customers world wilde. joining us now, not just some agent or something it's the president and ceo of douglas elleman dottie herman. and this is number one in new york. >> yes. >> by number of agents and $10 million plus listing. number one on long island. which does that include the hamptons? >> well, we're in new york, brooklyn, hamptons, wherever in california, florida. >> there, too. yeah. you got all these so you know what's happening here and you got this new thing with zillow. and i immediately thought, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. is this -- were they disruptors and enemies initially and now you're working together? >> no, they were never disruptive. you hear a lot because people

sometimes don't embrace the future. but really i've always focused to what the consumers want and consumers want information. >> yeah. >> and we give a lot of information at our douglas elliman site. however zillow is the largest technology data site in the world. so, their information is not as accurate in new york because there's no mls in new york state. >> so you can provide that? >> yeah. we teamed up together. took us about a year and a half of talking. >> were any of your competitors trying to do this with them? >> you know, you hear a lot of stuff. i really was just focused on what was good for us. >> zillow is pretty cool. >> they are. >> i get the snoop and i see what people's houses are worth. >> it is. >> a lot of times you got pictures. >> i don't think it's always accurate. >> it isn't. but people like it. all right? >> i do. i use it. >> you can't fight what people like. people like -- >> and then you argue with it with yourself like oh, that's worth more.

>> my house is worth more than that. they're wrong. i hate them. >> right. >> but what we're doing at douglas elliman is everything is branded, and we update it. we feed it every 15 minutes. >> wow. >> so anything that you're getting, and they have 82 million unique business per month. every 15 minutes we're doing live feeds. so you'll get our information, if there's a price break, you know, in 15 minutes you'll get it. >> wow. >> so we've taken it to a whole different level. than just information. and also, you know, we say if you've ever gone to webmd and you put in your symptoms, all right, then you want to call the funeral director. >> right. >> because -- so there's a lot of information. but one thing about real estate is it's not like a car. every piece of property is unique. it's different. especially new york city. you really have to know how to navigate it. you take the data, the information, combine it with experts in the area, and you got a home run. >> so still new york is better

than the bedroom communities around new york, right? >> oh, yeah. >> is it foreign buyers? why is it still -- why the bifurcation, usually they move in tandem don't they? >> new york never got hit the way the rest of the country did. it did take a beating but it didn't get killed. a lot of it is because toy have a lot of co-ops so with the whole financing thing, even if a bank would give you a mortgage with no money down, the co-ops wouldn't let you in. >> yeah. >> so it really didn't get hit as bad. it is projected to be the number one universal city in the world by the year 2024. >> if year all around by then. if it's not under water. were you ever a broker? >> for a short time. >> for a short time. do some of your brokers make more money than you? >> oh, yeah. i tell them buy me drinks. >> that's cool, isn't it? >> yeah. because it's a whole different -- >> it's a good way of doing it. >> i have a lot of great

successful, successful people. and people really, it's a profession of choice. now they have masters degrees, and what you have to know today. >> yeah. >> is really a lot. >> so when i come to you, you know, and finally think i need to be a metrosexual like andrew and move to new york, you can find the right place for me? >> yeah. >> is it expensive? list going to be expensive, isn't it? >> it's not cheap. but it's choices. you could move to omaha. >> what's wrong with omaha? >> it would be much cheaper. >> she's saying something about omaha. dottie, thank you. and do you have a card? >> oh, sure. >> okay, good. you'll set me up with the right broker, right? >> i'll take care of you. >> will you help make me broker? probably. >> you got it. >> thank you. >> when we come back, what will the dow look like in 25 years? will there be 30 different stocks or will companies like general electric, disney and boeing stand the test of time? and by the way on his way to the set right now our guest host today gary kaminsky. vice chairman at morgan stanley

wealth management. the fastest i. the fastest i. the fastest printer. the fastest lunch. turkey club. the fastest pencil sharpener. the fastest elevator. the fastest speed dial. the fastest office plant. so why wouldn't i choose the fastest wifi? i would. switch to comcast business internet and get the fastest wifi included. comcast business. built for business.

could help your business didavoid hours of delaynd test caused by slow internet from the phone company? that's enough time to record a memo. idea for sales giveaway. return a call. sign a contract. pick a tie. take a break with mr. duck. practice up for the business trip. fly to florida. win an award. close a deal. hire an intern. and still have time to spare. check your speed. see how fast your internet can be. switch now and add voice and tv for $34.90. comcast business. built for business.

3 1/2 trading days get ready for all the fireworks leading up to the grand finale thursday's big jobs report. is amazon's battle with the publisher just business as usual? a critic of the e commerce giant sounds off ahead of a very public hearing. >> and what will the dow look like in 25 years? will there be companies that stand the test of time as others fade away? the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew ross sorkin has the day off. our guest host this morning is gary kaminsky, vice chairman at morgan stanley wealth management. welcome home. >> good morning. good morning, joe. >> kaminsky. we had a guy -- we had a guy -- >> yeah. >> you have a big family, right? was there a -- one of your brothers used to work, you -- it's you. you have a beard. you're a blank finesse k today? >> well who wore it first? >> oh, look at that! they had it ready to go. you guys do look sort of -- >> isn't that crazy? >> that is spooky. >> that is a little scary. and you're no slouch, but i'm betting on the guy on the right in terms of pure monetary -- >> here we go. it took -- it's 7:01:35 and we're already there. >> don't you know that all journalists are a little bit envious of guys like you, and

blankfein? >> you know my love for you is endu enduring. >> it is. >> i like the beard. but it's not -- what is that? >> for 20 years, for 20 years much history i bring doughnuts when i come on "squawk box." >> dunkin' donuts. >> i don't want to say the brand. >> why? you don't get paid you don't want to say the brand? >> you know, i just -- >> you don't say anything without -- >> but as i was saying it back, my wife lori has worked in a bakery and they make very good stuff finally said to her why don't you bring your very own stuff. we're going to indulge on this. >> what is in there? >> we got to open it up. this is organic, healthy, gluten free, but tastes delicious. >> oh, god. >> let's just try it and then we're going to say whether or not we like it. >> i'm afraid to open that, it's going to be a jack in the box or something. >> all right, here we go. read the prompter i'll open the box. >> july fourth coming up. >> it's true. push back. he pushed back from the set. while they're opening this let me tell but the futures. take a look. you're going to see right now

that after -- we look like we're on track for gains once again for the month. dow futures look like they're indicated a little lower today down by about 39 points. s&p futures off by close to four points. and the ten-year note at least at this point looks like it is yielding 2.5%, well below 2.6%. in our head lines this morning, president obama will nominate former procter & gamble ceo bob mcdonald to be the next secretary of veterans affairs. the official announcement is expected later today. mcdonald graduated from west point and served as a captain in the army. he would replace eric shinseki who resigned in the wake of widespread problems at the veterans administration. also, details of gm's plan to compensate crash victims will be announced later today. they'll be announced by ken feinberg who hase administered compensation funds in high profile situations. mary barra has said there won't be any limits on payments.

13 deaths have been attributed to faulty ignition switches. payments could run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. and the justice department is expected to announce a nearly $9 billion fine against bnp paribas today. that will setting u.s. sanctions by france's largest bank. >> cnbc's 125th anniversary all day we will be featuring what the markets could look like 25 years from now. we start by looking at which stocks might be the biggest names over the next few decades of dominic -- that's the thing about predictions. they're very difficult. you're going to try here, what i like is that we -- you know, even though i cannot tell you what the weather is going to be like tomorrow, we do know what the climate's going to be like in 100 years, 50 years, 30 years. but anything else is really hard to predict, except for that. but what's the dow going to be like in 25 years? >> you're absolutely right, joe. i have no idea what the weather is going to be like or what the dow is going to look like. but we thought we would take the progression from 25 years ago to

today to maybe what it looks like 25 years from now, just to give you an idea of what things could look like. now, 25 years ago, it's interesting, because we know the dow is a constantly evolving index. companies move in. companies move out. it evolves with the times. but just to show you how far it's come, 25 years ago the biggest stocks in the dow were, i mean, ibm. fair enough. it's still there right now. but look at this, international paper on the paper side of things, corrugated products, that kind of thing, a huge member of the dow. navistar in the trucking side. at one point it was a huge part of the dow jones industrial average. kodak and goodyear. goodyear is still around. i think i've got a car with those tires on there. kodak not so much around these days. didn't really evolve with the times. you fast forward to today. here's what it looks like. 3m, ibm is still there. all right. then you got visa, because payments are such a huge part of the global economy now. visa is up there.

and then chevron and goldman sachs. these are some of the most heavily weighted companies in the dow today. so things have evolved. 25 years from now, here is at least some of the speculation and some of the things that we got in terms of thoughts from experts that we spoke to. now, apple, highly publicized stock split maybe puts it in that kind of realm for what the dow is going to look like in 25 years. and its price today means it could go in, maybe even sometime soon. that's big. visa still in there. because we talk about bitcoin, crypto currencies, all different kinds of alternative payment systems. visa could be a huge part of that picture, and visa, remember, is a big player in it today and has the balance sheet to evolve and maybe be a big part of that payment system in the future. amazon.com. we're not saying it's going to be the next walmart. but with the way that they're going right now, walmart is a $250 billion company. amazon is worth about $140 billion, $150 billion. it's catching up and it could be the biggest retail irin the world at some point on the

retail side 25 years from now. celgene is interesting on the health care side. it's going to make up a huge part of our gross domestic product in 5 years. we asked jim cramer what's going to be the biggest health care stock? he thinks celgene is going to cure more diseases in the coming years than any other company out there. so that's why he likes celgene. it does a lot of cancer research. and then ibm. the reason why ibm is still in there, guys, is because it's a tech behemoth. it's going to survive the times. but we also think that they could be a big player, maybe, in cybersecurity. it's not outside the helm of possibility for big blue to take its services computer business, and make it so that it involves cybersecurity. so that's going to be a huge theme in 25 years. we think ibm could be one of those ones that really leads that particular industry 25 years from now. guys. back over to you. >> we -- we were at the at&t. >> mm-hmm. >> we had those gentlemen on talking about the future, and none of them were comfortable going out more than five years. three to five years.

>> they said even five years -- >> impossible. >> it's interesting, i would argue that maybe at least half if not more of the companies in the dow 30 years from now or 25 years from now are probably not even in existence today. >> i was going to say would you have guessed 25 years ago that nike would be in the dow? >> absolutely not. or even vase. >> and u.s. steel. things like that. >> which is no longer in the s&p as of next month. >> i mean a lot of them. it's 25 years, i plan on being an avatar on a grid with, you know, with manufactured organs. >> in 250 years? you're not going to need manufacture ed organs in 25 yea. >> i'm going to download my brains. 25 plus 14 is what, 39? >> it is. >> 2040 is when the singularity is expected. so i plan on being far along towards living as long as i want. so think of the, you know, it's going to be a totally different world at that point if we're not

all under boiling water, dom, which is something we have to think about. >> that's your prediction, right? >> yeah, yeah, you see it happening. see it happening. let's get to our guest host. thanks dominic. with a midterm review of the markets. gary kaminsky is vice chairman of morgan stanley wealth management, and we normally don't immediately talk about big heavy serious things when i see you. but i am going to start you out with, where the heck we are in terms of all the central banks, and the conjecture that the vix and the lack of trading and the lack of volatility is all because we're in this weird manufactured world that's now controlled by central bankers and that the real economy itself and the real fundamentals are still -- still not in great shape after the recession, and with all the structural problems that we have. and that we're living in sort of some kind of almost a manipulated environment where things really aren't that good, and the market doesn't accurately reflect the

fundamentals. what do you think of that? >> i agree 100% with everything you just said. >> you do? >> you just raised -- interest rates have been manipulated. they are manipulated -- >> not just -- i mean we say ours our low here because they're low in europe. but they're manipulating -- >> there is a central coordinated effort to make money easy. with the hope, and i use the word hope, because that's what it is, that there will be a trickle-down effect as a result of the easy money and it's as simple as that. i reflect back on the midyear, if you came into this year and you thought okay the economy's going to get stronger, interest rates are going to go up, as a result of that, earnings will accelerate, equities will be the best place to be, bonds are going to collapse, you went in with a consensus opinion, in january, you haven't had a spectacular year, you haven't had a pretty good year. in fact if you've taken the opposite approach, which was that large caps would outperform small caps, that bonds would be a good place to be and have a balanced account, which is something that we tried to

preach internally to our advisers and clients -- >> at morgan stanley. >> at morgan stanley. has been the right decision. it's not because i had an idea what would happen. it's that we have taken the approach that interest rates are going to stay low for longer, it's not a unique approach, it's not a novel approach but that's the fact of where we are in the world. and so you know, it's like, if you want to try to fight it because intellectually it upsets you, that this is what the central banks are doing, it has been a bad investment decision. >> gary, did you readed druckenmiller warsh piece? >> i did not. >> basically, you know, there's balance sheet man lags, and there's income manipulation. and all the fed really has been able to do is balance sheet growth. and until you get actual productivity, and investment by the private sector, and income growth across the board, until you get all that, just getting a wealth effect is never going to

actually be the engine of growth for an overall economy that you need to move forward. >> well, i don't disagree with that. but when i asked a number of people what's called the decisionmakers of this policy, especially last fall, i came on air from singapore and spoke about it, i asked them specifically about that, joe, i said doesn't it offend you in some respect that this is what the policy is. and this sort of, you know, couching of it was, well, you know, there's nothing else we can do. in other words, this is the only thing we can do. >> make we shouldn't be angry at fiscal policymakers, and congress, maybe we shouldn't be angry at them for not doing anything. we should be angry at them for giving the excuse to the fed that because they're gridlocked and it's all the onus is on us, and the fed as an excuse says this isn't perfect, there may be negative effects to qe but we're the only game in town but we're going to do it. >> maybe if the fed would have behaved differently if congress was actually --

>> even if congress was doing stupid stuff, at least they wouldn't have had the excuse. >> we've given them -- by congress acting the way -- i know my colleague was here last week, right? harold -- >> yes. >> and harold, who will sort of tell you, will say you know, about the maturity of congress and that's the word he always uses. the fact is, by the immaturity of what's happening it gives the fed the pass to do whatever they want, and say we have the ability -- >> there's three branches of government. >> yeah. >> and as you know, the immaturity in congress has been -- you don't think it's been matched tit for tat by a couple of other branches? are you out of your mind? have you watched -- >> joe, i'm not saying. >> you mean government. you don't mean congress. you mean government. >> i'm not saying what i think. >> how about this new petulant -- >> you say there's -- >> have you been watching the comments coming from the white house? >> you say there's three branches of the government, and if you speak to the largest institution in the world, they tell you there's four branches of government.

and the fed, it's the fourth and the most powerful. so you know that's something that clearly goes back to the introduction, that's the world we live in. as an investor the important thing is you cannot like the way it smells. you cannot like the way it looks. but if you have not participated, you've hurt yourself. >> you know the expression you make your bed you sleep in it. congress is elected by people that looked at the first four years, whatever and said look -- there was a reason why there's all this acrimony. there's plenty of reason to go around. >> that's why when you think about november of this year it's like game on. let's see, you know, game on. >> elections have consequences. >> absolutely. >> as someone famous once said that. gary will be with us -- >> let's try to eat healthy. >> i'm not eating -- did you bring any gruten? >> come on. >> can you add gluten? add gluten. i'm not eating it. >> up next, is amazon's battle with the publisher just business as usual? amazon critic bob coen, attorney and founder of emusic.com will give us a preview of the public

panel looking at the company's impact on the publishing industry. stick with "squawk box." we'll be right back. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

that's why i always choose the fastest intern.r slow. the fastest printer.

the fastest lunch. turkey club. the fastest pencil sharpener. the fastest elevator. the fastest speed dial. the fastest office plant. so why wouldn't i choose the fastest wifi? i would. switch to comcast business internet and get the fastest wifi included. comcast business. built for business. welcome back, everybody. tomorrow, the new york public library will host a panel to address the very public and still ongoing battle over contract negotiations between amazon publishing. joining us is a guest on that panel bob coen who is an

attorney and founder of emusic.com. bob, thanks for coming in today. >> sure, good to be here. >> we talked a lot about this dispute between amazon and herbate. it has certainly garnered a lot of attention. >> my concern. amazon's done a lot of good. i saw the documentary, amazon rising. but the question was asked in the documentary is at what price? so i think what's happening with amazon is that they're taking advantage and trying to break some rules in order to win this winner take all game. >> what rules specifically do you think they're breaking? >> they started off by predatory pricing. i mean they were buying a book for $13, and selling it for $9.99. $3 below marginal cost. when you get 90% market share, and you sell below market -- below marginal cost that's predatory pricing under the u.s. supreme court case. >> from a consumer's perspective it's hard to argue that's a problem. >> the consumer has an interest in new books in the creation of new books.

what amazon is trying to do is delete the copy right law not just in the book industry. they're trying to do it to warner brothers on the dvd side and motion pictures. >> meaning. specifically how are they trying to do that? >> what they're doing is a conflict here. when you have power to lower prices which they're trying to do, lower the prices of the goods that they're buying, you can bring a digital good like an e-book down to the price of zero. i mean just throw it into amazon prime and don't pay anybody for those digital goods. the copyright law is enacted to get the price of ebooks and music and films above zero. so, the idea is to compensate authors and producers and writers for their -- >> well, if amazon continues to give things away essentially for free or below hat it even costs them obviously that's a business model that won't work indefinitely. >> oh, no. because it's not going to work for the public, either. because the public's interest -- >> well it wouldn't work for amazon either. you can't buy something for one level and sell it below that and

expect you're going to make money. >> eventually they're going to try to charge more. but when you have 90% of the market and you go to authors, even self-published authors and say, we don't want to pay anymore, where are you going to go to get your book published? if amazon has 90% share there's no place else to go. >> a lot of the specifics in the heshette publishing have to make sure with saying you're not going to get this overnight. we're not going to put it in prime. we're not going to let you order in advance. those are specific things amazon has brought to the public. things they've created. how is that different than walmart saying look you're going to have to play by our rules if you want to get goods space on our shelves? >> there's a difference between vegetables and fruits, and wheat and toilet paper. >> that's not all that walmart sells. walmart is the largest electronics retailer. walmart is the largest toil retailer. >> the difference between books and music and films is a lot different from these other kinds of goods. >> why? >> because you can take a digital good and get the price to zero. walmart and amazon can get other -- get suppliers to reduce their price to below -- to

marginal cost or some low cost. but a digital good can go to zero. okay. so the public has an interest in the creation of new works of authorship like new books. and you can't get new books without compensating authors some price above zero. >> sure. but let me point this out, i mean amazon may be doing a service in that they are sometimes fat industries where you can cut out a lot of the middle men and you can cut out a lot of the things that have been built up as the guys who are the surveyors in the middle. we've seen a lot of industries that have gotten decimated like that. i mean if amazon eventually does something, does a service to cut out some of those middlemen why is that not -- >> that's not a bad thing. cutting out the middlemen as my company emusic did it before itunes did it, basically getting the digital goods and cutting out the middleman. the problem is, is that if amazon is in a position to have 90% market share, using their network effects and the copyright industries, they don't have to pay anything for those goods.

that's not good for the consumer. the consumer doesn't have an interest in low prices. they have an interest in efficient prices. and if you don't have an efficient price for copyrighted goods you're going to have an underproduction of copyrighted goods. so the public has an interest in getting more books out there. and without more books, well, you're going to have an effect on free speech. you're going to have effect on the marketplace of ideas. books are different than these other kinds of goods. that's the important point to make sheer. >> this sounds almost like a snooty argument. >> a what argument? >> snooty argument. we're different because we're authors. i say this as somebody who provides content and is an author myself. i write a column. i want to get paid for my column. >> of course but the constitution provides a right gshs it provides congress it empowers congress to create the copyright law. congress didn't have to be empowered to promote fruits and vegetables or wheat or toilet paper. but they had to have the power to create a copyright law. that's why it's different. otherwise there wouldn't be the creation of these books to begin

with. you have to compensate authors at some price above zero in order to promote the creation of books. books and music drgs >> but your argument is they want to compensate everyone at zero for digital books? >> eventually. why not? in >> but they don't right now. they're not compensating people at zero right now. >> well, that's what why predatory pricing is wrong. at the beginning, you sell below market cost. you try to lower the cost of the price of the things that you're buying. but once you have 90% market share using the network effects, using network externalities to get everyone into your ecosystem, everyone signing up to amazon prime, why not tell authors you want to get red, you got to be in amazon prime and we don't have to pay you anything. >> isn't the frustration really though the fact that the public markets are willing to let amazon run their business model the way they are? the frustration isn't necessarily with amazon per se, it's the fact that amazon is a unique company that doesn't have to produce a certain profit

margin, whereas every other business has to. >> i don't have a problem with the way they're running their business in that respect. but when they go over the line on the law and start selling below marginal cost and have 90% market power and have the power to reduce copyrighted works down to zero, that's the problem. and the problem is not what amazon did, it's what the department of justice didn't do to investigate amazon's, you know -- >> thank you very much for coming in today. we appreciate your time. a programming note for you if you missed the premiere of david faber's amazon documentary last night you can watch it tonight at 7:00 eastern time. more "squawk" right after this. over 400,000 new private sector jobs... making new york state number two in the nation in new private sector job creation... with 10 regional development strategies to fit your business needs. and now it's even better because they've introduced startup new york... with the state creating dozens of tax-free zones where businesses pay no taxes for ten years. become the next business to discover the new new york.

[ male announcer ] see if your business qualifies. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading.

[ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ she can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ my mom works at ge.

♪ still to come this morning the dollar and crude in today's trading bloc, and a market strategist who's been dead right about the moves in the ten-year. really... so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 dollars a month? yup. all five of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're working deals all day. you get 10 gigabytes of data to share. what about expansion potential? add a line anytime for 15 bucks a month. low dues... great terms... let's close. introducing at&t mobile share value plans... ...with our best-ever pricing for business.

[ jackhammer pounding, horns honking ] [ siren wailing ] visit tripadvisor miami. [ bird chirping ] with millions of reviews, tripadvisor makes any destination better. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2.

welcome back to "squawk box" everybody. shares of mankind getting a boost this morning. the fda improving the company es inhaled insulin. it acts more rapidly than the injectable versions of the medication. that stock is up by 15%. currently owned by p/e firm lion capital. it could be valued at $1.5

billion. a top sony executive says the company is confident that et struggling tv division will move into the black in the current financial year. the head of sony's tv unit says this is possible even if the company falls short of its volume sales target. >> check on oil and the dollar this morning joining us from houston is carl larry oil outlook and opinions president from new york boris schlossberg, bks management managing director. we've got a jobs report on thursday, boris, and you know we've, we've, you know the last three months or so it's been all about interest rates and currencies and down 2.9% on the gdp, and suddenly the ecb is accommodative. where are we? >> you know, i think the market is really torn between like you said, the horrid numbers in q1 gdp and the much better economic data than we've seen most recently. maybe this week is going to be the resolution. if the nonfarm payrolls prove to be much better than expected

they could provide that lift to yield that we've been talking about. i think ultimately the conversation is going to have to change away from job growth to wage growth. that's really what the bond market is watching. that's why the bond market is utterly complacent about inflation worries. that's why you've seen the yield at 2.5. if we start to see average wages begin to percolate higher that could be the signal the fed will tighten. that's when the dollar will finally catch a bid. >> i heard that you know we got the lowest participation rate ever but the good jobs they can't find the people they need so they might be. might have to pay a little bit more to induce the talent to come which is right. is there slack in the labor market, or like yellen says or is there not like freddy kruger says? >> i think yellen is clearly, you know, driving the bus at this point. her argument that there's slack in the market is what's weighing on the bond market because she is looking i think not at jobs, but at wages. she wants to see wage growth on

a sustainable level. only then will the fed begin to move. that's why you've seen such complacency in the baond market. you had a teaser about a guy who calls the bond market very well. if he tells me what the ten-year is i'll tell you what a dollar will be three months from now. >> who's right about what finally happens with the economy? is it going to snap back? you can't guarantee that. and if it did -- if there was some kind of negative externality, some kind of i don't know, plenty of hot spots around the world where something bad could happen. there's train terrorists that are trained in the middle east but have european passports now and can come in here no problem if you want. something bad happens do we look to to prop up the economy when we know that the fed's probably got nothing left. >> there's not that many actors left. that's why you don't want to have a shock now. we are relatively vulnerable to that. that's impossible to forecast

and kind of hard to see. the bigger question is, are we more like japan? is this just another series of endless false dawns. or are we going to just actually finally snap out of it in a real fashion. and again i think the snapping out of it in real fashion would be a function of wages. >> boris, look at what happened. down 2.9%, the global warming causing all of that snow. >> yeah. it's not -- >> -- the great lakes freezing and all the warming causing the freezing, that's not -- >> it's not global warming. it's climate change. it's volatility. >> no, no. it's carbon dioxide making things warmer. >> right. but we're making things warmer in the long run but it creates volatile temperatures which create these massive -- >> why does 100 parts per million -- >> because apparently 95% ascientists across the world feel that's enough of a margin to create change -- >> that's a myth. looking at individual scientific

papers and trying to discern -- let me go to carl. tell me about oil and how all this plays in to where oil's going to go. >> well, you know, here's the thing. i mean, you know, unemployment no matter if there's a participation rate or not we keep adding 200,000 jobs every month. that's 200,000 people who are probably driving more likely than anything, to and from work. and we've seen it reflected in auto sales numbers. if we get another four or five months. this is the fourth or fifth month of 16 million units sold domestically, i mean, more cars, more workers, more oil priced. it just keeps going up. and it's not a reflection of brent or iraq, or you know, what we have now. it's more demand. i mean it's as simple as that. we don't have to have a $12 an hour paying job to drive a car no matter what the oil prices are. we're still paying gasoline because that's what we do. you know, throw out the whole myth about fuel efficiency when you put 16 million cars on the road every month, more cars, you know, more demand.

>> what about -- we're seeing it now, the -- it's very confusing. the syrian rebels are now making gains because of isis in iraq, we like the syrian rebels, i think, but we don't like -- it's very complicated. but -- what is finally going to happen with the supply of oil from the middle east? >> well, here's the thing. this is not 2003 iraq where you know we're afraid they're going to blow up an oil field or blow up a refinery. when the rebels took over the refinely in baiji a couple weeks back, they were careful not to kill anybody, not to disrupt any kind of production. they wanted to make sure they take the production over. and i think the same thing goes with the oil fields. they want to take the production. they want the money. they don't want to stop anything. they don't want to halt any production. they want to keep everything going. it's a lot like venezuela back in 2000, 2001, 2002, i should say. they want to keep everything moving. they want to put their people in

and make that money for them. now i don't know about foreign oil investment. i think that will pull out. they don't want to be where it's going to be so unstable. but it's definitely -- it's definitely a different situation now. i don't think we're going to see stoppage of flow at all. >> all right. all right, thank you, carl, and you know, i told boris my prediction was for a cool, wet, warm, dry, year characterized by droughts, and floods. and that probably all those will probably be happening anyway, gentlemen, thank you. >> thank you. >> you wrote up that list -- >> cool, wet, warm, dry, characterized by droughts and floods. >> with a 50% possibility for precipitation. >> all right. >> when we come back this morning. he was dubbed the doctor of doom of the greek crisis. one of the first to call the financial crisis, too. now his call on the ten-year note has been right on so far this year. find out why you should be listening to mark grant. as we head to a break check out the ten-year this morning.

so far it's been yielding well below 2.6%. i think the last check was 2.525%. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back, everybody.

joining us right now is mark grant, managing director at southwest securities. also, we've been joining by alberto ottas. mark we have you on this morning, because you e-mailed me last week and reminded me that you had predicted 2.5%. sure enough, that's where we wound up on the ten-year. what do you think happens now? you've been right all year long on this call. >> yeah, becky. i think we have more to go. i think we're going to go down to 2%, and maybe less than 2%. and that's grounded on three principles. one, the fed 4.75 trillion dollars that they invest. they're going to keep pushing rates down into the best interests of the country. two, germany, 1.25% on their ten-year. france 1.7% on their ten-year. faux economic reason the united states is where it is. and three continued troubles in the ukraine and middle east that will send money back to the treasury market.

>> we're also joined on set by gary kaminsky of morgan stanley. gary you talked a little bit earlier about how this is also the call that you've been telling a lot of people. morgan stanley's been telling people. >> me personally, i agree with mark. i did agree with mark. mark, i would add one thing to that which is that you still have the generational shock of the last 13 years, that is ingrained in people's minds, so the over allocations of fixed income will continue. i want to ask you one thing, you were right about the direction. you were right about the price. but a lot of people feel that what we see in the first six months of this year was the fixed income funds that were wrongly positioned. that were positioned for higher rights. repositioning themselves. now that that has readjusted its 168 where do we get that move from 2.5 to 2 if all of these, i don't want to say it, closet index funds hat are traded the benchmark there are properly positioned. how do you move that down now? >> well, gary, i don't think they are properly positioned yet. i think their key indication is

the ten-year treasury, which is on special, which means it's very hard to borrow, and i don't think the other funds are positioned yet. and two, the fed -- the 4.75 trillion they have is invested either in treasuries, agencies, or agency mortgages. and i think it's in the benefit of the country that we have lower interest rates that will help real estate, employment, everything, and three on a relative value basis how do you justify 2.52 on the u.s. ten-year, and france at 1.7. makes no economic sense. >> right. and i guess that's a huge part of this. central banks around the globe are responsible for this. you think that this is going to be there for a long time to come? >> yes, i think it's going to be there for years. i think the fed's going to say, we need to keep this pile of money in case of any problem. and i don't think we're going to see any back up in rates for

years. >> we've been watching volatility plummet. in fact i think the vix has been down for five months. down about 39% over that period of time. do you expect that volatility to still be capped by the global central banks? >> yes, i think that the central banks are in control of a great deal of the financial markets at this point. certainly, look at what the ecb has done in europe, lend being money at 0.15%. encouraging the banks to buy the sovereign debt of the nations there. and it's been a help to their economy, and it will be a help to ours. i would encourage the fed to keep pushing rates down. it's a boom for americans for mainstream america. >> so, what does this mean long-term for the stock markets? i mean, it's good news for now. is there a time that you have to pay the piper? >> no. as a matter of fact, becky, i would make the opposite argument. i would say as interest rates grind lower and people don't want to live off of the 2%

ten-year you're going to see money flowing back into the equity marxates as a way to get appreciation when yields are quite low. >> and what would concern you, mark? what would make you think that, okay, we've got some issues? because today the lead story from the "financial times" is about how the bis, the bank of international settlements is warning that these markets are too exuberant and it's not paying attention to what they think is being propped up by the fed? >> well, the point of disembarkation in my mind is when the fed starts to deleverage. meaning when the fed starts shrinking their balance sheet, it will be them that we're going to see higher interest rates. but until that happens, which i don't expect for years, i don't think we're going to do anything but go down in yield. >> that might never happen. you could see a fed, there are been comments that bernanke has made and some of these off-the-record comments where he's said, hey, we could just ride it out and let these things expire. let it go through the entire

length of all these bonds. >> well, even if they mature, becky, they're not leaving the money sitting in the drawers, so they're reinvesting it, back into the markets, look, becky, the u.s. treasury market is 12.1 trillion dollars. the fed has 4.75 trillion dollars. that's 39% of the market. they can control if they so choose. that's why everybody's been so wrong about interest rates. >> mark, what do you think about other nations, stock markets in europe, stock markets in some of the emerging markets? >> well, becky the ecb has been incredibly objective with lowering the sovereign rates which has helped spain, france, the periphery nations. it's also helped their equity markets. so i think both for europe, and for the united states, we're in for a prolonged period of lower yields, and money coming back out of the bond market, into the equity markets, as people can't live under 2%, or ten-year.

>> shinzo abe wrote an opinion piece himself. he wrote his own op-ed today in the "financial times" and he is trying to make the case that he is on track for anybody who has questions about whether that third arrow of his reforms is going to come through. he's saying they will. will that help japan? or do things look too good in the united states and europe for them to be able to compete? >> well, in terms of relative value, their interest rates from their sovereign debt are close to zero, about where switzerland is. so that only augments may thought that money that's free, that's not mandated to go someplace, is going to come back in to the u.s. markets, and put more pressure to lower rates, lower the ten-year and it's great for business borrowing. it's great for mortgages, real estate will go up because of it. i'm positive at this juncture because of the low interest rate environment we're in. >> mark, with your scenario, is your strategy, your investing strategy here then to be buying

bonds right now? you know, at the 2.5% yield. is that what you're basically suggesting? >> gary, what i've said is you know i just deal with very large institutions, and some of the biggest on earth. what i've said to them is go out as long as you can possibly can. i said that's just january. i've said anything you can find with some yields and just ride the waves down. and a number of them have called that strategy and it turned out to be quite productive. >> all right, mark. want to thank you very much for joining us. it's always great talking to you. i'm sure we'll see you again, soon. >> you, too, becky. >> we were expecting to be joined by alberto ottis. we had some difficulties with that. when we return on "squawk box," a sex tape emerges, adding to the mark of glaxo's china scandal. the details on that right after this. and early fireworks for the market ahead of the july fourth weekend. the june jobs report will be out

on thursday. it will be the number of the week for investors to watch. so will the markets end the week with a bang? "squawk box" will be right back. up next on "squawk box" don't start your day without knowing the names that will make you money. joe has your list of stocks to watch, right after the break. [ shutter clicks ] hi there! [ laughs ] -i'm flo! -i know! i'm going to get you your rental car. this is so ridiculous. we're going to manage your entire repair process from paperwork to pickup, okay, little tiny baby? your car is ready, and your repairs are guaranteed for as long as you own it. the progressive service center -- a real place, where we really manage your claim from start to finish. really. ♪ easy as easy can be bye! you wouldn't have it she any other way.our toes. but your erectile dysfunction - it could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right.

you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any allergic reactions like rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about experiencing cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial.

welcome back to "squawk box." a corruption scandal involving glaxosmithkline in china just got even more bizarre. the company says senior

executives were sent a secretly filmed sex tape of the company's top manager in china. video of mark riley with his chinese girlfriend was apparently filmed in the bedroom of his shanghai apartment using a covert camera. maybe a gopro. installed without his knowledge. glaxo says the tape was sent anonymously by e-mail along with allegations that the company was paying kickbacks to doctors and officials for using glaxo drugs. >> how does the sex tape even come into it? >> is he married? >> i don't know. none of the reports that i read said one way or another. >> sex tape always -- >> he might have been pill popping viagra which is made by a competitor. >> exactly. >> which would be embarrassing for glaxosmithkline. >> i still have not figured that out. >> does glaxosmithkline have an e.d. medication? >> i -- >> what was that?

champagne? >> i don't know the answer. ask me something -- >> gary, let's save you. >> that narrows down the number of questions, doesn't it? we've got to ask you something you know about? >> oh, my gosh. >> gary kaminsky is our guest host today. he is vice chairman at morgan stanley wealth management. i want to ask you about a story i was reading this morning in "the wall street journal." this has been a really unpredictable market. it's been a tough time for stock pickers. even though we constantly have people saying this is the right time for stock pickers, they say this year so far in 2014 more actively manage mutual funds or trailing market bench marks than in any full year since 2011. more than 74% of actively managed funds that invest in shares of big u.s. companies are lagging behind the s&p 500 index. that's up 50% from last year. what do you think is happening? why such a confounding time? >> the story is right that it's been a difficult year for stock pickers, again gravitated towards index huggers. however, if you pick sectors. in other words you emphasize those sectors in the equity market that benefit from lower

interest rates, the mlt space, the high dividend paying stocks, the real estate investment trusts and the bond equivalents, if you're overallocated sectors on the interest rate trade you've done spectacular. so the difference is, it's been difficult for individual stock selection versus the s&p at 7%. but sectorwise you're up between say 12% and 15% versus the s&p -- if you overallocated the low interest rate sectors, if you made that bet. so it's about the sectors that have benefited from the lower interest rate scenario which again consensus had totally wrong. >> do you agree with mark grant that this is something that lasts? this low interest rate environment for a long, long time to come? he's talking about years. >> yeah, i do. unfortunately, i do. you know, i'd love to see interest rates go up for the right reasons. and i'd like to see the stock market going back to what joe was talking about earlier in the hour. i'd like to see the economy and the stock market benefit from rise interesting rates. people forget that 65% of the time stocks go up when interest

rates are going up. historically. we don't know, you know, one of the questions we ponder all the time is we don't know when the fed stops this manipulation of interest rates if that will hold true. you know maybe when interest rates go up this time the economy is not improving the way it should. so i'd like to see that lack of manipulation. but i do agree with mark and i think you have to position yourself, what i tell clients, what i tell our advisers is you might not like it but you better position yourself for this for a long period of time. >> mark doesn't necessarily think the economy is in shambles, and that's why we're seeing lower interest rates. his take on the whole thing has been that look, you've got central banks that are manipulating things, you've got crazy low interest rates in europe and some other places and that all comes back plus the safety factor looking at us as a haven. we've benefited from all of those things. do you think we can get a strong recovering economy and still see low interest rates? >> well, yes, doubt i don't think we're having a strong economic recovery. i don't think we're having -- certainly there's not a ceo that

i've spoken to in six months of this year that are expanding their hiring, spending, or using their discretionary capital in any way more aggressive than they would have in december. so it's impossible, it's kind of the peter lynch mentality. how does the economy expand when those people that actually hold the trigger to expanding the economy say they're not going to spend the money? it's getting more complicated than that. >> gary's going to be with us for the rest of the program. we've got a lot more to talk about. >> i would be worried about a sex tape. you know -- >> for me? >> no, for anybody. i would just hope that, like, it was a good night for me. you know what i mean? you know when you send an e-mail of a video, you know when you send an e-mail, there were times when it says no you got to cut this down. you've got to get -- what if this didn't need to be cut down at all? what if it just here's the 12 sends, and this is the sex tape? what if that was the beginning, middle, end? >> you suggest that it was edited? >> but what if -- what if you didn't even need to edit it to send it. >> you've been thinking about this. >> i've been thinking about i would hope that like i said,

that i was having a good night if someone was going to, you know what i mean? i mean would you be comfortable with a -- someone seeing the -- >> just say yes, gary. >> ten seconds. coming up, coming up, the master of disaster ken feinberg set to unveil gm's compensation plan for the victims of the condition's ignition switch woes. we're going to preview that payout and talk autos when we return. eyeballs are on us during the two weeks at wimbledon. true tennis fans want to know what's happening. they don't want to just see what's happening, they want to know and understand why it's happening. anybody can just put data up, but we want to get a reaction, make it far more interactive. we rely on the cloud to provide that immersive digital capability. give fans more then just the game with the ibm cloud.

and our luggage was immediately... taken to... stolen from... our room. the hotel manager was clearly behind it. he was such a... kind man. con man. my husband wanted to... hug him. strangle him. and to this day we're still in contact with... the manager. the police.

i wish we could do that vacation all over again. don't just visit paris. visit tripadvisor paris. [ male announcer ] with millions of reviews, a visit to tripadvisor makes any destination better. [ male announcer ] with millions of reviews, in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

today, limitless data, trading from anywhere, redefining the dollar, reinvents wall street. reports throughout the day on cnbc. fireworks coming early to wall street. the friday jobs report has been moved to thursday, so it's a thursday jobs report, thanks to america's birthday. we're going to preview that jobs number and the second half of the year. >> the master of disaster is back. ken feinberg holds the purse strings to gm's big compensation payout for its ignition recall. we'll preview today's announcement and talk autos. >> and is tech too frothy. we talk venture capital, facebook, twitter and more. with founders fund partner jeff lewis. as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

welcome back to "squawk box." here on cnbc. first in business worldwide. gary's headed to amsterdam. when? this weekend. this weekend. >> to celebrate the fourth. watch some football. >> you know for a fact these types of things go on there. >> of course i do. >> i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. >> whoo. >> andrew ross sorkin will be back tomorrow. that was g-2, wasn't it? with johnny -- our guest coast this morning, gary kaminsky. vice chairman of morgan stanley. wealth management, a renaissance man, in so many ways. world traveler. a neuberger investing genius. an on-air talent for years at cnbc. par excellence. and then now back to vice chairman at one of the premiere investment banks on wall street. >> becky, if i had known this was going to happen i would have promised, i would have told my mother to watch the show, right? >> did i say anything, speak out

of turn or anything there? it was a simple description of your -- >> a lifelong friends. >> yeah. >> and -- >> original -- >> and original "squawk box" and as we approach the 20-year anniversary -- >> lehman bought neuberger? >> in 2003. >> and i retired in june of -- >> you were like 30, which is, you know, anyway. >> yeah. >> and now you just do it to -- because you can walk around and say i'm a vice chairman of morgan stanley. do you draw a salary at this point. >> i do it because i love being involved in the investing world. working with clients. being part of the best financial institution in the world right now. >> cnbc. >> well that's the best financial media institution. >> oh, okay. you know, so yes. >> all right. >> all right. gary's going to be with us for the rest of the program. we do have more to talk with with him. in the meantime let's get you caught up with some of the headlines. president obama plans to nominate former procter & gamble ceo bob mcdonald as the next

veterans affairs secretary. an announcement is set for today. also the justice department is expected to announce a settlement with bnp paribas today over alleged u.s. sanctions violations. the bank is set to pay a record $8.9 billion fine and plead guilty. and global market news an organization representing the world's main central banks is urging central banks to exit loose monetary policy. the bis, the bank of international settlements, is warning that dangerous new asset bubbles are forming even before the economy has finished recovering from the last round of financial excess. we've been talking about that a lot this morning. let's get a check on the markets, see where they stand. so far for the month the markets are looking like they will post some gains. right now this morning it looks like we see some red arrows. dow futures down 25 points below fair value. s&p futures off by two points. overseas in asia overnight the nikkei was up by about 0.4%. the shanghai was up by close to 0.6%. and in europe, you also say that in the early trading right now things are barry moving for most

of these markets. although you do see a decline of about half a percent in italy. >> between last week's disappointing consumer data and this week's jobs, there will be plenty for investors to digest ahead of the july fourth weekend. joining us john riding chief economist at rdq economics. i see a -- a see a tension between two different notions about where we are, and one has to do with gdp number. and whether it was just a one-off. and the other one has to do with how much slack there actually is in the labor force. and whether we really do have a good jobs market, good enough to get some wage gains. or whether there's just a lot of people that need to be brought back in before there's any pressure. where is this economy? >> well, i think first of all, we should pretty much set aside last week's gdp report. i think that measured decline in gdp borders on the nonsensical. if we look at other indicators

of economic activity that don't go into the measurement of gdp but correlate very well with overall economic activity, like industrial production, like jobs creation, like the isms of which we get another reading tomorrow, they show an economy probably growing closer to 3% than contracting 2.9%. gentlemen the first quarter was hit because of the weather but the overall reading on gdp i think pretty much was meaningless and the markets are set to decide and i think that's right to do so. however the question about slack is very important. because that's the primary determinant of when the fed is going to finally pull the trig iron raising interest rates for the first time. a lot of indicators suggest to me there's less slack than the fed might think. particularly we saw the increase -- >> john, we're -- that was a 60 minutes thing. that was cool.

that was like a full silhouette. i think we maybe should do it that way. sort of the unknown economist. >> the unknown economist. maybe my accent would give it away. >> i think we'd know it was you. >> but coming back, we saw a big increase in job openings in the most recent data for april. which puts job openings back in september 2007. and a lot of labor market indicators now, not the unemployment rate, but a lot of other indicators look like september 2007. so, yes there's a group of people that become marginalized from the labor force including the long-term unemployed. but for everyone else the indicators look like a middle of an expansion. the question for the fed is can this other slack be addressed by monetary policy, or, as i think, it should be tackled by other means? fiscal measures. >> well, there's two ways of looking at all the accommodation and qe-2. we just had mark grant on. a lot of times he sees conspiracies everywhere. or at least he sees trouble everywhere. but in terms of low interest

rates he just says absolutely, great. for consumers. great for the economy. great to keep interest rates low and get business activity percolating. then you got the other side that says the fed has been pushing on a string with a balance sheet attempt to stimulate the economy. it's not going to work and there's going to be a day of reckoning, after -- at some point trying to slosh up all this excess liquidity. and when no one's there to buy the bonds anymore. what do you think? >> well, i rather was interested in the bis report that becky just referred to. a very interesting report that shows potential buildup in financial risks. and if you think back to the last expansion there's a parallel except this one's a parallel on steroids. so we had interest rates being cut through 2003. okay on a hold at 1% through the middle of 2004. and then interest rates rising

only very slowly. and that in my opinion, and according to the bi sichlt, led to a buildup in financial risk that eventually burst and gave us the great recession. >> john, i worry about what they said in that, too. but i also wonder if this is kind of an irrational exuberance moment when the warning comes years before the actual collapse of any of the stuff. >> well, the thing is policy needs to be forward looking. so we're not talking about taking interest rates back to 4% tomorrow. that -- >> no, but if you're an investor who is trying to figure out what you should do with your money, do you listen today or do you continue to watch for signs? you're right if this is something trying to tell the policymakers that this is the direction we go but if you are an investor trying to read into this maybe you should take a different message away. >> maybe you shouldn't. maybe the investor is looking at equities. the bis report i think much more was once again looking to put risks in the banking system and looking to put risks in the debt market and looking at some of the risks in emerging markets. i think that toes risks have health up because of that policy. and i think that it would be,

when you look at inflation which is back at 1.8% on the fed's measure, the employment rate is at 6.3%, and these financial stability risks, you have to ask the question, why are we still at zero percent? and why even though we're slowing the expansion of the balance sheet are we still expanding the central bank's balance sheet? it seems to me out of tune with the three indicators that the fed is most committed to. so as a result, the market says the fed's not doing anything. volatility comes down. and as you say, financial exuberance rises. >> john, if i say football to you, do you see -- do you know what a quarterback is? >> i do know what a quarterback is. but when i hear football, especially the world cup going on, i think of the remaining teams in the competition. sadly, england went out. >> bitter pill. >> very. but there has been some fabulous games. two games yesterday that were just terrific games, with costa

rica improbably now advancing to the quarterfinals. >> yeah. i know. and like brazil, is that destiny? i don't know. it's in brazil. they -- did you see that -- it hit the cross bar. it hits that a lot, didn't it? i mean they would have been out, right? >> yeah, and brazil has been struggling, and historically the statistics show being the host country is worth two-thirds of a goal per game. the only time england won the world cup was in 1966 and england were the host nation. so the host nation does have an advantage. >> five times. five times the host nation has won. >> an awful lot of pressure given the social conditions in brazil. there's an awful lot of pressure for the brazilian team to do well. and they seem to just be squeaking by. >> yeah. so, do you -- belgium's not as good as germany. but do you -- are you a u.s. fan now since you live here? >> i'm a -- now that england's eliminated i'm a committed u.s. fan for the rest of the

competition. >> that's big of you. do you pay taxes here? >> yes, unfortunately for the last 25 years. >> unfortunately. >> a lot of taxes. but i do think the u.s. has a good chance of advancing against belgium, the way they've been playing. >> they need too take it back like they played against, who did they play the first time when they looked, that horrific tie. >> they beat ghana. they tied with portugal. and they didn't lose by very much to germany. and that was enough -- >> that's soccer for you, didn't lose by very much. >> i think as they go at, one of the themes of this competition has been if you are organized you don't need the superstars. it's not the superstars who are winning the competition. it's good organization. >> yeah. >> and under clintonsman the u.s. seemed pretty organized. i'm quite optimistics. it will be great for the sport in this country if they could have a run and at least get to the quarterfinals. >> you can't say that about the broncos that they didn't lose by very much to seattle.

anya, thank you john ryding, we'll see you leader. >> thanks a lot. >> up next, gm's plan to pay victims of crashes caused by a bad ignition switch set to be revealed. ken feinberg likes to have an open wallet and will preview today's big announcement and fine out what it means for gm. check out the "squawk box" market indicator. it still looks like we'd be set to open a little bit weaker on the equities markets today. stick around "squawk box" will be right back. [bell rings] ♪ time and sales data. split-second stats. ♪ its so close to the options floor, you'll bust your brain-box. all on thinkorswim, from td ameritrade.

could help your business didavoid hours of delaynd test caused by slow internet from the phone company? that's enough time to record a memo. idea for sales giveaway. return a call. sign a contract. pick a tie. take a break with mr. duck. practice up for the business trip. fly to florida. win an award. close a deal. hire an intern. and still have time to spare. check your speed. see how fast your internet can be. switch now and add voice and tv for $34.90. comcast business. built for business.

welcome back to "squawk box." futures at this hour are been kind of right around the flat line for most of the session. we're now down about 21. making head lines, safety regulators are investigating complaints that the carpet cover trim panel is causing unwanted acceleration in nissan and versa cars, and preventing drivers from braking. the national highway transportation safety administration says it's received four complaints that the cover in question on those vehicles had trapped the edge of the driver's shoes, and felt things sort of like that one time. you got to make sure that the rug -- >> at the base. >> the cover is pauled back so that it's not neared the accelerator. these are crazy things to happen. and then, you know, human error in some of these things you

never know whether it's human err are or something the car company did. >> right. >> and it can happen again and again and again. i mean, we look -- >> that was the toyota deal. >> we look deeply into acceleration, and sometimes elderly drivers, you know what i mean, between the accelerator and the brake, i mean some of the accidents are attributed to hitting the wrong -- simple as that. it's really hard to know at times what's going on. >> i've add issues myself. >> floor mat issues. >> i've had issues myself if i'm wearing heels. sometimes i kick those off. >> that's happened to you. >> no, but i saw somebody go like this and put the car into reverse and go into the front of the store and say i put the car -- >> sometimes you're just not -- >> that's going to be on the highlight reel at the end of the year. >> what? >> what do you keep doing? >> when you go -- the shift. >> okay. >> you know like -- >> let's get out of here quickly. >> what were you doing before? >> you've got the steering wheel, you take the shift, you go into reverse.

i know you drive a stick shift. >> been awhile since you've been on tv. he forgets, i think. take anything out of context. >> show me what i did. >> no. no. >> no, she won't, either. no way. no way jose. >> let's get you back to another story. gm's compensation plan for victims will be revealed later this morning. phil lebeau joins us from washington. what should we be expecting? >> well, i think we're going to get some definitive numbers in terms of what type of compensation general motors, at least the attorney ken feinberg who is working on this for general motors, what kind of compensation he believes that the victims of those faulty ignition switches should receive. we'll get some parameters in terms of dollar figures, and also more importantly going to find out how many victims he believes are linked with these faulty ignition switches. remember, general motors said it is 13. almost everybody who worked on this case said huh-uh, it's far higher than that. let's bring in lance cooper, one of the attorneys who represents a family of a victim of one of those faulty ignition switches.

lance you represent the meltons. their daughter brooke melton was killed in a chevy cobalt which had a faulty ignition switch. have you had a chance to talk with ken feinberg as he's been putting to the this plan? and what are you expecting to hear today? >> yes, i've had a few conversations with mr. feinberg. what we're expecting, obviously, is a plan to come out. we're hopeful it's not the final plan, that there will continue to be discussions in order to, as miss barra said, get gm to do get the right thing for all of the victims of these recalled vehicles. >> do you have any idea in terms of parameters for the dollar amount for those fatalities that are linked to these faulty ignition switches? are we talking 5 million? 10 million? what is it you're expecting that he's going to say. >> well, initially, the question is going to be the scope of the vehicles. my concern is the conversations i've had. gm is tying mr. feinberg's hands. and they're only going to allow him to consider less than half of the recalled vehicles as part

of the compensation plan. so the scope we need to listen to, but the scope likely is going to be far too narrow. as far as the compensation is concerned i haven't seen the final numbers, but my main concern for the compensation would be, this is unlike what mr. feinberg has ever done before. because you have a significant punitive component here. in other words, not only is gm at fault for what happened with these victims. but there could be punitive damages awarded because of the egregious pate of their conduct. >> which then brings up the question, will people opt in for this? because there will be some people who look at this and say, threat's throw a hypothetical number of $8 million per fatality. some people will say this is not about the $8 million, if i go to court i can get some punitive damages here not just about the money but i want to really put some sting into general motors. is that a potential issue here that some will say, not enough? >> yes. and really, that's probably the best part of the plan that i've

heard of so far. and it allows victims to opt in or opt out. so there will likely be some victims and some families who make the decision we want to be involved in the plan for our personal reasons. but it gives other victims the opportunity to say no, i don't think the plan does enough here so i'm going to go to court and hold gm responsible in front of a jury. >> lance, have the meltons actually have a conversation with mr. feinberg or will they talk with mr. feinberg if they decide to opt into this plan? >> they won't opt into this plan. it's my understanding the plan does not even include them. in other words, they would not be part of the plan. gm is taking the position 59 least at this point that the meltons don't want to be part of the plan. 55 ultimately they want their case to go before a jury. >> explain this to me. brooke melton was killed in a chevy cobalt with a faulty ignition switch why would that not be covered in the compensation plan? >> they're taking the position,

at least at this point, that the melton case had settled. we settled the case last year, but we've opened it back up because of the fraud committed on the meltons during their case. however, gm continues to take the position that the case is over. >> what fraud was committed? i'm confused by that. >> ultimately in the melton case -- in the melton case, during the case, they told us that they had never changed the switch. their engineer testified under oath and the lawyers sent documents showing that. >> wow. >> ultimately it's come out since the recall they did change the switch, and so what the meltons are saying is, you didn't shoot straight with us, we want to have our day in court. >> right. >> lance, one last question. if they have pretty restrictive parameters on the number of vehicles that are covered, how hard do you think the outcry is going to be from the families of victims saying, wait a second? mary barra has talked about let's come clean. let's do the right thing, if they tie ken feinberg's hands i mean isn't this really a dog and pony show then? >> i'm afraid so.

we've seen the information from the melton case that the post-'07 switches in these vehicles still don't meet gm specifications. yet gm is trying to narrow the scope in order to limit their exposure, and like you said, tie mr. feinberg's hands. so i think that that will be, if it comes out the way i understand it's coming out, that will be the most significant criticism of the plan. >> lance cooper, attorney for the melton family joining us from atlanta, georgia. i know you'll be watching today, lance. and guys we will be watching, as well. 10:00 a.m. here in washington, attorney ken feinberg will reveal the details of the gm victim compensation plan. of course we'll bring it to you live on "squawk" on the street. >> phil, thank you very much. you'll be interviewing ken feinberg? >> immediately afterwards. his first live interview immediately after he announces the compensation will be on "squawk on the street" so you don't want to miss that. >> thank you very much. >> coming up, an emergency landing for a toou united flight in wichita.

how much are you willing, conversely, knew, to pay at the pump. you like that? >> yeah. >> emergency landing did you hear what happened? >> no. >> wait until you -- >> that is a separate story, and no -- an outlook for gas prices just ahead. and make sure you tune in to "squawk box" at 7:30 eastern time. that's tomorrow. chris christie will be our very special guest in studio. we're in new jersey. and he's going to come in studio. "squawk box" will be right back. [ male announcer ] don't just visit miami.

[ jackhammer pounding, horns honking ] [ siren wailing ] visit tripadvisor miami. [ bird chirping ] with millions of reviews, tripadvisor makes any destination better.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. pictures that you have to see to believe this morning. emergency slides opened indeed the cabin of a united airplane yesterday. it was a flight from chicago to los angeles. as a result, the pilot was forced to make an emergency landing in wichita, kansas. >> the first thought i had is gosh i hope there's no one in the rest room because they're not getting out for some time. but fortunately the flight attendances were in the aisles and no one was in the rest room. just filled the whole area back there up. >> that would be a heck of a ride if you were trapped in the rest room. no one was hurt. the plane did not lose cabin pressure in the incident. airline officials have not said what caused that slide to deploy. when we return, before you leave for vacation, make sure you check out the "squawk" summer travel forecast.

find out how much you can expect to pay at the pump on your road trip. right now, though, as we head to a break, take a look at the u.s. equity futures. we've seen some red arrows but things have been moderating a bit. the dow futures down by 11 points. s&p futures down by 1 point. (vo) rush hour around here

starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the nose. but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours.

welcome back, everybody. contract negotiations covering dock wokkers at 30 ports on the west coast continue today. 2.5 billion dollars a day could be at risk. it's -- if a prolonged shutdown actually occurs. jane wells joins us right now with the latest. and, jane, where do things stand right now? i think jane may not hear us. again, this is jane wells, who's standing by in los angeles. we're going to try and make sure that she can hear us. i know that she was having some questions about whether or not we could actually hear her. we were talking about this dispute, gary, last week. there is the potential for it to chop about $2.5 billion a day in commerce, productivity in the united states. cut it out of the gdp, if this lasts for a prolonged period of time. i think the last time this happened was when, 2002? am i right? >> i think that's right, yeah. >> 2002 potentially.

this is something where the dock workers are demanding -- >> and it's today. today is the day. >> today is the day. the dock workers are demanding more promises that they won't be fired, and i think looking to not pay more for some of the benefits that they are guaranteed right now. >> yeah, and again, just taking it back to the fed. the central banks, and basically anything like this that creates uncertainty in the economy, you know, continues to give the central bank the likelihood that we stay easy for long. it's every one of these series of developments, when you think about investing, puts you back in the same direction. >> you're talking about exogenous shocks that we would not be able to try and soften the blow? >> for those who are watching. john ryding was talking about when you're back to economic cycles in history, these type of things would happen, you'd have, you know, you'd have booms and busts and you'd have cycles. but the big question, i think that's the question for the rest of this year for all investors is, are these type of one-off events, you know, a dock

worker's issue on the west coast. is that just in the minds of the fed something that creates uncertainty, and a period where the fed has to manipulate interest rates with the hope, and i emphasize the word hope, that it keeps the economy on safe footing? remember we haven't spoken about it yet this morning. the biggest fear the central banks right now, which is geared doors inflation is not inflation at all, it's deflation. that is what's driving the thinking around the world. so something like this is an indirect correlation with possible deflation. >> i think we're going to talk more about this with jane in just a moment when we get that connection fixed. in the meantime we have another story. >> gasoline prices hovering near recent highs but that's not stopping travelers from hitting the roads this holiday weekend. johning us is john ike berger of the association of convenience stores which represents three quarters of all the gasoline sold in the country. what's the -- lately, john, it's been inching up a little has it not, with the

situation in iraq? or where are we right now around the world for regular? >> yeah, we seeing right now regular is sitting about 5 to 10 above last year. that's interesting because in june the last couple years we've seen prices decrease during the june time frame. but we've got crude oil up about 16.5, and retail trailing it behind. the tough thing for retailers right now we know our customers are a little upset about retail prices. in the first three weeks of june retail margins dropped 20%. so retailers are a little concerned about what's going to happen in the next few weeks. >> it's always hard to explain to people what happens and simple supply and demand. it can be right around your area. things can be you drive from one townty to the next and the supply/demand dynamics can be totally different. that's the way it's explained. it's not gouging, right, john? >> i would agree with you. it's not gouging. every retailer has a different cost structure. depends on what your supply contract is. with summer upon us, things are

looking much better inside the stores. the last couple years we've seen between may and july, in-store sales have gone up 10% to 15% which means customers are excited. they like summertime, even though prices go up, customer attitudes at the store seem to be pretty positive. >> can you tell me how the rest of business is? i mean it's mostly convenience stores. they call it is that the front end, the other stuff that convenience stores sell? or in pharmacies there's the back and the front. there's the drug counter and then everything else. is it similar at convenience stores? or is it mostly gas? >> we refer to the gas island as the forecourt and gasoline accounts about 70% of overall sales but only about 30% of pretax profit. most of our profit making opportunities are once the customer comes inside the store which is when we look at summertime, customers are out a little longer, they're having a good time, they're enjoying their summer expurgss. that's when retailers at the convenience level see a much bigger uptick in overall operations. >> what percentage are the hot

dogs? i've always asked you tat. is it part of the 30%? is it 5%? and the margins are great there, because they never really -- you never really throw those out, right? i mean they will be sold eventually, right? >> we're not going to talk about that, joe. come on you know we keep our items fresh. we want to make sure our customers have a very positive experience. >> every single convenience store those are -- you guarantee my wiener is going to be fresh, john? >> i cannot -- i cannot talk for every single store in the country. however, i can tell you that the industry as a whole wants customers to have a positive experience to enjoy the food, everything they buy. you know, food service is one of our fastest growing categories. it is accounting for about 20% of our in-store sales and that's something we take very seriously. you're actually going to see a lot of changes in convenience stores over the next several years. just announced a campaign with united fresh to increase the sale of fresh produce in our stores dramatically over the next five years. so you're seeing convenience retailers really trying to answer the concerns of the

customers and provide them the items they want. freshly. >> you've been on a bunch of times. do you have notes that said be ready for the wiener question? you do, don't you? >> i am ready for questions about hot dogs. i'm ready for questions about vanilla bean shortages in manila. anything you want to throw at me. >> he watches the program. >> you are totally -- >> he had the beef jerky percentage ready to go, joe. right, john? >> yep, absolutely. it's funny, you bring me in to talk about gasoline but i know it always goes back to food inside the store. joe i think you're one of our best customers. we appreciate that. >> thank you, john. touche. thank you. >> thanks, guys. have a good day. >> let's get back to jane wells. she's standing by at the port of los angeles, and jane we explained before about the potential for a strike today. what that could mean. where does it look like things stand right now? does it look like we might actually see a shutdown? >> well, becky, well, no. not yet. i've got good news and bad news.

the bad new is no one expects there to be a contract before it expires at midnight tonight. the good news is no one is expecting a strike or a lockout right away. if you look at the wall graphic, i think you alluded to this earlier, the strike are the ship operators, port terminal operators at 29 ports involved in negotiations with about 20,000 port workers up and downs west coast, including the top two container ports in the nation, l.a. and long beach. oakland is seventh. seattle is 11th. about 40% of the container traffic in the country comes through here. here's the deal. we heading into prime stocking season for back to school. analysts believe many retailers have already moved in some goods in early. the fear of course is while the animosity and rhetoric always kicks up as the contract here expires, that it might actually lead to action like it did in 2002. when we had a ten-day lockout. there was some estimates at that time that that cost the economy about $15 billion. others say that was very much inflated. retailers are now saying this

time, if there's a strike or lockout, it could cost $2.5 billion a day. again, many say that that is inflated, including jack o'connell of beacon economics. but he says if we did end up with a strike or a lockout we really would start to feel it after about four days. as for using alternatives like maybe rail lines which many ag farmers might want to do instead of going by ship, put it all on the rails, he says that's going to be more difficult now. there's more competition. listen. >> they're having trouble getting attention from the railroads because the railroads now are making a lot of money by moving oil, petroleum from north dakota and other places. increasing amount of competition for locomotives, and space on the rail systems in the west. that's coming from a brand new source. >> of course, this volatility is never good. canada's been busy promoting since 2002. our ports are more reliable. becky, as you know, the panama canal is widening.

could be ready by the end of the next year for bigger ships. the big question is how much are they going to charge and could the west coast still be competitive? >> jane, thank you. part of the question,if people were anticipating this problem, if some of it's already been averted, if that stuff has been sent by other directions, as you mentioned, for the back-to-school goods too. >> or sent early. we got another ship coming in here right now. i think? was a lot of preordering as retailers were anticipating this. we always talk about everybody was getting ready for this. and then if it happens everybody was caught off guard like oh, my god i didn't expect that to happen. >> all right, jane, thank you. when we come back we'll be talking technology with venture capital guru jeff lewis. is staying private longer helping companies reach bigger valuations? we'll ask him about that and get his thoughts on facebook tinkering with your emotions. ♪

[ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ she can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪ marge: you know, there's a more enjoyable my mom works at ge. way to get your fiber. try phillips fiber good gummies. they're delicious, and an excellent source of fiber to help support regularity. wife: mmmm husband: these are good! marge: the tasty side of fiber. from phillips.

welcome back, everybody. our next guest has a land in running one of silicon valley's most power. vc firms. joining us is jeff lewis a partner at founders fund. it's great to see you today. >> good to be here. >> you know, we've come to you from time to time just to get a feel for what's happening in the valley. and david einhorn and other big investors have raised concerns about whether or not there is another tech bubble that's building. hat do you think about that? >> well, i do think that we are at the -- we are at a stage where there is -- there are perhaps some early warning signs. so, one of the interesting

dynamics with the valuations for a lot of these tech companies is, nobody actually knows what the company should be valued at. a lot of the comps actually aren't very good. these companies are often creating entirely new markets. and then, incidentally, end up disrupting existing players. and i think that typically, private investors are more willing to buy into a future oriented narrative of what the company could be worth down the road. but, we are now starting to see the public markets get involved, obviously gopro last week. a big part of the story there is a future business line around media and community that doesn't really exist yet. so i think there are some early warning signs that perhaps the public is starting to get in on on some of the more speculative action at high valuations. so we are trading cautiously. i don't think we're there yet but there are certainly a number of blockbuster ipos on the horizon over the next 12 to 18 months. all it takes is probably one big one to really burn the public badly, and then we could be in a

very bad place. >> do you question gopro's ability to do that? or is this just more of a warning sign because you see the froth from retail investors jumping in on this? >> well, i think nicolas woodman is perhaps one of the most talented marketers that has ever existed in history. i think it is absolutely mindblowing the brand that that company has built. i do believe they have a brand monopoly among outdoor adventure athletes. i think that's something very powerful. you can leverage that in all these different directions. the technology is commoditized and all of the trends from, you know, technology standpoint, are -- it's the wind is not behind their sails. so he is going to have to pull off an incredible -- an incredible trick of building an entirely new business line off of that community. i would not put it past him and the team. i think they have an incredibly talented team. it's possible. i'm not buying right now, though. >> okay. >> jim you said it's hard to get the comps. and i didn't quite understand

what you meant. are you saying there's a lot of private companies that are looking at public market valuations and they don't agree with the comps? what did you mean by that? >> i think when you're dealing with hypergrowth companies it's very hard to figure out, you know, what the right comps are. you know, a lot of the businesses are somewhat different so one could argue that, you know, the right comp for air b&b would be sort of various hotel companies, travel companies. one could also argue it would be something like ebay. it's often very amorphous. >> i mean are there thoughts out in the valley that some companies think that they're worth more than they would be in the public market right now, and therefore they're now coming public? >> i think oftentimes it does take time for these companies to grow into the valuation. so i think that is -- i think that is part of it. i also think there are just all of these really annoying things a company has to do once they've gone public. for companies that have a really compelling vision of the future that believe a lot of their value exists 10, 15 years out

into the future, it makes sense to not have to deal with the demands of going public and focus on innovating, bidding the company and given the availability of capital at growth stage at the private markets companies don't feel the pressure to go public early as they did in the last cycle. >> i want to ask you about facebook. i know founders fund was an early investor in facebook and there's a story in "the wall street journal" today that says that about 700,000 facebook users back in 2012 were part of a psychological experiment that the company had allowed people to move things, putting things in their news feed, manipulating the news feed. either putting in more positive stories than putting in more negative stories and seeing how they reacted. it was part of a social experiment that nobody told the users they were part of. and i just wonder, this is something that has sparked outrage as an investor you think this is a smart move? >> well, i can't really comment on facebook given my colleague peter thiel is on the board

there, haven't read the story. it's quite early out here on the west coast. i will check it out. i will say that companies oftentimes do testings with users. that's not uncommon at all. >> what kind of testing is it? >> a.b. testing. so you would test placement of various things across all sorts of different consumer internet companies do this all the time. you would test where to place an ad unit. what items you prioritize in somebody's feed. this is a very common practice, that's how companies optimize their ui's and so i don't think that's an unusual thing. >> this is research that was published in the march issue of the proceedings of the national academy of sciences. it sounds like this is something that's a little beyond just seeing if ads work. obviously you haven't read the story so you can't comment more on it. let's put it into hypotheticals. if you are allowing other scientists to come in and test your users and check out things, maybe do a cool psychological experiment that you wouldn't be able to do if you didn't have such massive number of users, it

seems to me like it would be in the best interest of maybe letting your users know and decide if they want to be a part of that experiment. >> i think it makes sense to sort of see what all the data is there, and i don't have any of the data. so can't comment on that. >> let me ask you about lyft which is another one of hur companies. >> sure. >> we've been talking about this lawsuit in california where uber has been saying they shouldn't have to insure their drivers when they're not necessarily on the clock. maybe if there's a passenger that they have, but if you have turned on your applications and you're in the process of accepting rides, should a company like a lyft or uber be responsible for picking up corporate insurance to make sure that anything that happens on their watch is covered? what do you think? >> i think that that is something the companies are working to do. and i believe that is something that is going to be part and parcel of both of these companies. down the road. it's somewhat hard to make work but yeah, i do believe that that is the right thing. and certainly, certainly

believes in protecting their drivers and building that community of drivers and i know this is an important initiative for the company. >> kind of falls into the same realm with air b&b. the whole idea of regulatory sphere, where those companies should fall? should air b&b be paying taxes like a new york city hotel room does. is it better off to embrace some of those regulations so you don't get forced out later? >> you know, i generally think most regulations are very bad and should not exist. but at the same time, you know, at the same time it's probably not feasible to escape into an island with no regulation. >> right. >> so one does have to deal with some of these regulations. and certain ones like the taxes are regulations where, you know, it probably makes sense to deal with them. other regulations that sort of prevent fair competition i think are very bad and i think it's very good that these companies are fighting them. >> okay. it sounds like a broader conversation. we'll have to get you back in here to talk more about it in the future. jeff, thank you very much for

joining us today. >> thanks for having me. >> coming up. more from gary kaminsky. up next, we'll head to the new york stock exchange and get a read on the shortened trading week with the peripatetic jim cramer. "squawk box" coming right back. chocolate is very individual. white chocolate lovers don't like dark chocolate. milk chocolate lovers don't necessarily like dark or white. before we couldn't really allow customers to customize their preferred chocolate. we needed a scalable cloud solution allowing them to select what they are looking for. now there is endless opportunity to indulge. customization is made with the ibm cloud.

the porter was so incredibly... careful... careless... with our bags. and the room they gave us -- it was... beautiful. a broom closet. but the best part but the worst part was the shower. my wife drying herself with the... egyptian cotton towels... shower curtain... defined that whole vacation for her. don't just visit new york. visit tripadvisor new york. [ male announcer ] with millions of reviews, a visit to tripadvisor makes any destination better. in today's market, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today.

that's why i always choose the fastest intern.r slow. the fastest printer. the fastest lunch. turkey club. the fastest pencil sharpener. the fastest elevator.

the fastest speed dial. the fastest office plant. so why wouldn't i choose the fastest wifi? i would. switch to comcast business internet and get the fastest wifi included. comcast business. built for business. york stock exchange. jim cramer joinses now. you didn't know that word? i remembered it. it was -- did you hear it? peripatetic. >> peripatetic. i kind of like peripatetic, as long as it's in the confines of engaged. >> yeah. >> how about the word "engaged." and "mad money" eponimous. >> to a degree, i don't think anyone's quarrelled with na. >> i liked your shots, jimmy. first time there, i haven't been. your first time?

>> yeah. budapest probably -- vienna, budapest, prague, budapest off the beaten path. you'll see currency is cratered. you get dinner for nine bucks. good differe good dinner. >> prague. you've been to paris. >> i think prague is much more dealable than paris. by the way they love us. there isn't a place you can go where people like, americans, americans, we love americans. hungary, it's hard to -- they love you so much. >> kaminski's going to amsterdam. if i showed you his itinerary you might blush. >> europe is as weak as we read about it. >> really? >> there's just -- you just get the sense -- >> you gave it a jolt, you gave it a jolt, cramer money. >> i threw them some -- they got

some -- when you go there, by the way, from viennahungary, they're saying be careful, it's a back water. but go to places, they're hardly backwaters and put the cold war behind them but economies are weak. >> floyd mayweather or you, did you have -- you had 50, 60 people. how many people? your group? >> we didn't have -- we didn't have the biggest gate ever in vegas. but it was just a lot of fun. >> all right. anything else just really gets you that our viewers need to know or watch you? amazon rising. >> i think it's the take overs. ppg buys komex, a paint company and it's soaring. as long as we get soaring news on the buy it's all about the deal. >> thank you. >> welcome back. coming up -- oh. coming up -- what? >> nothing. >> i'm ready to say your name. >> coming up, gary kaminski --

oh boy -- on the fed, the markets and his trip to amsterdam, i think. godfather ii. "squawk box" will be right back. for $175 dollars a month? yup. all five of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're working deals all day. you get 10 gigabytes of data to share. what about expansion potential? add a line anytime for 15 bucks a month. low dues... great terms... let's close. introducing at&t mobile share value plans... ...with our best-ever pricing for business.

in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. back to our guest host, gary

kaminski. bottom line, gary, we are in terms of where we were in 2007, looking at dislocation caused by the housing bubble, now we're -- the fed and central banks around the world have been very, very active. have we deleveraged? are we in a better position? is it night and day compared to where we were back then and where we are now, or like some of the dooms sayers say, that we're setting ourselves up for a bigger fall in the future? >> the quick answer to that the difference between now and 2007 lower interest rates are not creating right now crazy speculation. it was then. >> so the stock market -- >> it's pocket -- the stock market corrected a certain sector that has significant speculation. earlier this year, it did not impact overall market. >> which sector? >> momentum stocks, as they called them in the media. >> right. gary, we want to thank you for coming in. m&a, you think this is the year? >> cramer hit it on the head, absolutely. the difference is if you announce a deal stock goes up, you can talk about interest rates, talk about economy, talk about politics, at the end of

the day ceos are like us, if they do a deal and the stock goes up, they like the deal, more deals are coming. we're going to have a very busy m&a. >> good to see you. come back soon. that does it for us today. join us tomorrow, right now it's time for "squawk on the street." the boys are back in town as we welcome jim back from vacation. great to have you back. >> thank you, buddy. good morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with cramer, david faber at new york stock exchange. close out june, second quarter, the first half of 2014 today. what a year so far. s&p up 6%. we'll talk to jim about the second half play book later on this morning. ten years right around 2.52. busy week for data. chicago pmi, don't forget the jobs number thursday, because of the fourth of july thursday.