have to have a plan, to kenny ace point. thank you, guys all. pressure it very much. simon, it's been an interesting session having you with me. >> you bet. thanks, sue. that does it for "power lunch." >> now to the ladies on "street signs." 17,000 is just a number, but a number that's never been hit before. may even during this show. hello, everybody. welcome to "street signs." where you'll also joined by sarah eisen. >> more on your height range than brian sullivan, but not a bad way to kick off the second half of the year. >> bob. the important thing is the dow components that are moving us toward 17,000, it's a diverse group.

i'm talking in terms of points. remember, the dow is weighted by price. so when you see a five-point move, six-point move, almost 40 points in the dow right there. visa, 4.6 -- $4.61, that's about 30, 34-point move in the dow. 3m. seven or eight points. you can see it's a diverse group. money being put to work today on the first day of the month. i mentioned before that certain etfs are having rather heavier volumes. all mid cap. heavier volume, stocks moving up, heavier volume. s&p 500 etfs also getting heavier than normal volume. the ivv here, the s&p big cap. of course we're setting at as in high here.

getting some outflows? generally bond etfs also some corporate bolts, getting heavier volume, but you can see those bonds are on the down side. >> bob, a quick question. 17,000, yes, it's just a number. is it a milestone psychologically, technically, what does it mean to the guys on the floor? >> well, look, the important thing is one of the things that disappoints people here is the fact that the public is not emotionally engaged with the rally. there's good reasons, because the economy is not performing at a level that the average person would think would be necessary for the markets to hit new highs. once you start talking about round numbers, it gets into the public, and if we can get some follow-through with really good news on the economy, and i'm talking about the jobs number.

if with el get strong numbers, then the. >> won't that be too late then? >> i would gladly trade a bit of worry about whether or not this is a big headwind for the stock market in exchange for higher job growth and even higher wages. i would love that. >> don't go too far. stick around. jack would you have a hard time put -- >> right now cash is trash. that's what's fusion a the lo of this move. if you look at some of the

cheaper markets, i'm going to say international, emerging markets frontier, i think i have no issue putting money to work today in those markets. when we're looking at small caps, i get a little squeamish. large caps better, but i would wait for a pull back, a dip, or if you're converse in options, perhaps you can ride out of the money put options, and generate some income while you're -- >> but you wouldn't be selling. is that what you're saying? >> no, no. >> no one wants to hold cash. everyone wants to hold something that's generating yield, return or some kind of risk. if only half of the public owns u.s. stocks, is it too late? we're looking at valuations we

haven't seen in over four years. >> i don't necessarily think so, as long as you're taking a gradual approach. as long as you're looking out more than a month or so, i think, you know, for a longer to intermediate term investor, you can still get gains going forward. yes, valuations are higher than they've been in some time, so through -- we're closer to there than we were a year ago, but we're not quite at that level. i don't think time for extreme caution and to get really, really worried -- >> and you're all about the numbers, paul, aren't you? you're all about the context of histo history. when you think about it a 6%-plus return, on top of like, a 29%, 30% return we had last year, what do you think we could get out of the second half of this year? >> yeah, a repeat of the first half, would it surprise us by any stretch of the imagination,

coming into the year we were looking for low teens percentage gain, what's interesting is, you know, we've been up six quarters in a row, an everyone is talking about this is ominous, now we're due for a big drop. so, you know, it's just to show you that just because you're up six quarters if a row doesn't mean you have to fall in the seventh. for that matter, half the them went on for ten or more quarters, so just to say that we're due, people have been saying we're due for a correction for 1,002 days now, and, you know, if you've been waiting for that all this time, i've missed out. >> os at least the gains can continue into the second half, do you have to reallocate and switch positions? our markets team came up with the last winners, dow 16,000 to 17,000, caterpillar, walt dis y disney, we're focused on the dow right now marches towards 17,000. do you want to stay in the

winners, our do you want to look at some of the losers? >> no, i would stay with the winners. i would think what's driving this market, sarah is liquidity certainly, and momentum, and the fact is, what's -- what has worked, continues to work, fueled by liquidity. i think what we'll ultimately see, and this will be interesting going into the second half of the year. if we see stronger economic numbers, if we do start to see perhaps slightly higher inflation numbers, it's entirely possible, you know chairman yellen could be acting out of a monty python and saying what higher numbers? we're going to keep interest rates low. the fact they want to keep it low much longer than everyone else believes, and i think they will. i think it's part of that momentum strategy uismgts and jackie was saying earlier, you would prefer to look elsewhere. and frontier, but paul, you're closer to home. give us three picks really

quickly you have here for the second half. >> two of the individual names, google and omnivision technology. omnivision, they make cameras for cell phones -- so that should be positive for the stock. the third is the housing sector. in the last week we've seen existing, pending and new home sales all come in stronger than expected. earlier this spring we have a report saying our long-term case is bullish for housing, so rather than pick individual names in that sector, an individual investor can go out and buy the ipd, and be served well going forward. >> and we're going to talk more about the housing market and whether or not that momentum will continue later on in the show. jack and paul, great to have you with us. coming up next, we're still watching, getting ever closer here, plus we have -- >> the big movers here on the march to an all-time high. we'll look at some individual

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welcome back to "street signs", we're on dow 17,000 watch. it hit an intraday record high. psychologically speaking, it's a big deal. leading the way higher is ibm, big blue followed by visa, fizers travelers and jpmorgan.

the two big winners today are both still down for the year, so one of those perhaps rotations from underperformers to now leaders just for the day. the three biggest dow losers for the year so far are boeing, goldman sachs, and general electric. so the question then becomes whether those stocks start to catch a bid in this overall broad move. mandy, back over to you. >> thank you very much, dom chu. the nasdaq is also having a good day. what's particularly driving it, seema. >> a lousy first quarter read on gdp could shake these markets, and nasdaq outperforming. major inadditions, technology historically speaking tends to outperform in a rising rates environment. it's not the best performing sector so far this year, but it is staging a comeback, in terms of today's biggest movers, netflix, the best performing stock on the nasdaq 100, getting an upgrade, analysts citing

international expansion as a big opportunity. micron, seagate also higher, so technology playing a big role here, biotech, another big story here, regen ron, celgene, gilead sciences, some of the notable stokes higher on the day, contributing to the nasdaq's outperformance, definitely a risk-on rally. that's what helping the nasdaq get a nice lift. mandy? >> thank you very much. seema mody. let's bring in more voices. sue herera, ron insana, and guys, of course you've been covering the markets for cnbc for many, many years. you watched us go up, and then all the way down to the march 2009 lows, and we've come all the way back up again. it's a bit of a roller coaster. >> always has been >> it makes an interesting job >> we started working together when the dow was under 1,000, just breakic through 1,000 when i got to -- >> the dinosaurs were nice

itches what's interesting about this move is that it happened in a matter of seven months, the same amount from when it went to 15,000, 16,000, those times are getting shorter. >> they are getting shorter, i think the fundamentals are getting a bit better, i think the momentum in the market is still there, fairly good, i would think you called a turn in the market. >> i was concerned after having trying to short stocks and make money that way, as i was getting killed, you know, we were having a rotational correction, but if you were short the s&p, but long individual stocks, you're losing money every day that the markets crept higher, and after a while, listen, the market wants to go up, it's going to go up, my opinion doesn't matter. >> the persistency of this rally without a correction, without any sort of meaningful pullback, amid the wall of worry, you look at the headlines, whether it's geopolitics, the federal reserve has started to scale back, and nothing is freaking out this

market. >> i would be much happier as an investor, i think, if we did see a bit of a pullback in the market. i think it will be healthy to see a pullback. we just haven't gotten it. something will eventually perhaps trigger it, though maybe not. >> you're right. what concerns you the most, ron? >> you know, i don't have that many concerns, which is preebl what concerns me. this is still the most hated bull market that i have seen. >> which is terrible, because they've been climb -- they've sold the wall of worry, and then we start to get excited, in the front page of the local newspapers dow 17,000, that's what worries me. >> some of us suggested, even wrote books about buys stocks and real estate, people didn't listen then, didn't -- you know, it's still an unloved bull mark and there's a lot of fully invested bears. >> i think that's the scars -- >> and 2000, for that matter. >> absolutely. people were so frightened in

2008. it affected such a broad swath and continues to affect such a broad swath of main street that i think it's going to be some time for the retail investor decides to get back in, plus they feel that wall street is a great game. >> it's no -- >> and headlines reinforce that, whether it's the new book on type a trading, flash crashes. >> so take all that and forget about it for a moment. if you just bought the s&p in 2009 and forgotten about everything, you're up 180% in five years, and the fed went all in in 2009 and they're not ready to pull support yet, so they're still on your side. >> let's talk about comparisons, since you mentioned that. >> i wish i had made it. >> don't we all. >> just a quick disclaimer, we cannot be investors. >> i can. >> you can, we can't. thanks for rubbing that in, ron. >> what has been the relative performance of bonds verse stocks since 2009?

>> well, i don't have it since 2009, but i would venture to say there's been a lot of different dates i would pick between 2000 and today for the fixed-income market, where the fixed-income market would hold its own. i don't know what the number is, if if you were long at 14,000 in '07, my guess is your total return automatic at 17,000 would be well until 4%. >> when it comes to the stocks versus bonds question, one of the things the bulls point to, rick, is the fact that rates are low. that's been another big surprise up 2014, giving support to this market. what's it going to take for yields to rise? and what's going to be the inflection point? >> well, that's the conundrum of central banks. they've had this great window to maybe unwind some of the issues that they have created like balancing zero interest rate policy, because the horse power of the global economic has had a better effect of soothing interest rates, really better than anybody ever anticipated.

to see central bankers fighting the tape, so to speak, when interest rates are low, this would be a great time for then to wean down their balance sheet, wean down the markets from some of these programs, because the window may be small, we have no idea what fat tales or black swans may be out there. >> first of all, i don't think the window is that small. secondly the central banks where probably have been winding down some programs. if you go back to 2009, every abrho nim laden program from t.a.r.p. to qe has been wound down. the balance sheet is a separate question. the fed's not going to sell bonds. very simply stated, anybody who's been following this closely knows they're not -- >> you can't say that, ron. it's impossible to say. >> yes, you can. >> because if we see money supply -- >> they won't sell them. >> god forbid we see the economy really get better and we see interest rates moving a bit at the same time velocity and inflation move, they will be forced to sell to rein in the

supply. they will have no choice. >> they have a lot of tools before we get to that point. >> they have no choice. they have one tool. >> rick, point to something that's faux get better. >> point to what? >> you're saying it's fake, it's for the really getting better. what do you mean by that? >> i mean we assume that debt is income, okay? the world is creating consumption by all the citizens around me, but the bulk of that consumption right down to subprime auto loans dictates that it's more driven by debt than income. if we want a healthy country, we have to have the expansion driven by income, not debt. >> but a stock market can still rise in this environment. >> as we've been seeing. >> and that's the bottom line. you can't miss out on it. i'm curious, rick, about the correlations, stocks, bonds, currencies commodities. it's interesting that gold is higher so far this year. we didn't see that last year during the historic rally. >> janet yellen.

i think it's janelle yell been that is making it go higher. there's a nervousness how a central banker should be objective to the snarls. >> geopolitical issues being on the forefront. >> what about 9% so far this year. i think that's been quite a surprise for a number of people. >> i think it has been a surprise, and i think gee on political issues, especially in the middle east, first it was ukraine and russia. that seems to have moved to the back burner a little bit. not all that much. it's still there, certainly, but the middle east situation i think is what has many people going into the safety, not just gold, but other assets certainly. i think that will continue as the rhetoric continues to ratchet up. >> it's also interest to note that commodity inflation is generally backing off. >> finally, yes. >> we're starting to see that break, and gold, as sue has said, is influenced number one at the moment by geopolitics. >> also the dollar hack weak.

>> and 56% of global interest rate policy is at zero, so there is a reason for gold to move up. europe is got much more aggressively. >> i think it's a flawed argument. i don't even see oil up there, in the geopolitical crisis at the epicenter of the oil geography and landscape. >> so maybe it's a goldilocks environment. >> well, nobody can come up with cause/effect, it's easy to point to things like gee on political and we have, because then you don't need to have the correct answer anymore. >> i think there's a few who agree to disagree on that one. rick santelli, thank you very much, sue and ron as well. we're all keeping an eye on this market. we were only a whisker away from head 17,000. it backed off a bit. >> 16,486. you saw the breaks news on "street signs" yesterday when general motors announced another massive recall that made all the

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welcome back to "street signs." so far the s&p 500 is also in uncharted waters. now trading up about almost a%. leading the way higher, followed be netflix, priceline, alexian pharmaceuticals, all helping to push the s&p toward record highs. let's talk about one key individual stock in the midst of this rally. a really big mover is general motors. the shares are up nearly 3% a. the dow approaches 17,000, can the investors buy sell or hold this automaker? let's bring in jay wii earn, and -- great to have you with us. i think that's about 3% of your firm's portfolio, so not a small amount, peter. i understand, despite everything, you're holding on. >> absolutely. this is probably one of the cheapest stocks that we have in our university, trading at seven

times earns, and i think the market has overly discounted financial impact from the recalls, and do not fully appreciate the new car lineup that gm has been rolling out both last year and this year. so i think the stock has aways to go to the up side. >> you're not worried, just for foul up on that, peter, you're not worried we keep on getting more and more information that we might be near the end of all of this, and more is revealed and it doesn't bother you we may have more to come? >> yeah, that's possible, but so far they recalled 28 million vehicles. this is a company that produces about 8 million globally. so when you look at it in the context of it, and how it's confined, the recalls to 2005 to 2010 models, they pretty much, at least it feels like, are recalling nearly all the vehicles that were made during those -- that's time period. not to dismiss the tragedy of deaths that occurred, when we

quantify the risk related to that, in terms of the financial impact, we're probably talking no more than a billion dollars in compensation, and maybe 2.5 million right now to fix those vehicles. so it's about 3.5 million -- billion, when we started buying the stock in april the stock had sold off almost 13 million in market capital. so in our opinion, it was certainly overly discounting the impact investors were not -- this is -- one of best lineups out will. >> while the numbers are mind-boggling this year, it's the cost factor. i would think that would have to be a concern to investor when gm updated another billion yesterday. why kant that taken as more of a negative?

they more than doubled the cost and left the door open for more. it was 1.2 bill qulon, and then in q1. the bigger cost will be on the compensation fund lawsuits. i mean, i've gotten ahead and told clients 7 billion plus the cost of repair. but honestly, when you buy that all out, diluted shares, it's not ha large of a fair value estimate impact. is that already based in the stock, which is, by the way, down so far this year. really there's a very attractive long testify term story of gm that continues to get it ignored.

>> there's a lot of attention, as they get it -- a number of platforms, and dramatically lower labor costs. >> phil lebeau tweeted out today that the stat was despite gm recalling nearly 12 million vehicles, sales were up by 1%. >> the consumer remainz unfazed, still the top seller. still ahead, the one stock goldman says is a streaming buy. >> plus of course we are all over this market. we have an eye on the dow for you, creeping toward 17,000, backing off a bit. still strong gains to start july, and the second half of the year. "street signs" will be right back. ♪

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signs." i'm standing here in front of the heat map. we're within a hair of crash been that 17,000 market. in fact two months away before the 2:00 show started, as you can see we backed off. what particular stocks are leading and lags? ibm, advisa and pfizer there as the three top movers on the dow industrials in terms of percentage gains, but moving down here, you've got a couple stocks that are laggards and in the red, just slightly, but goldman sachs. back over to you, sarah. >> records on the dow, records on the s&p 500, let's send it over to dominic chu. >> how about another record, dow transports hitting another record high, you have delta air lines, three more airlines to route it out. southwest, alaska, united continental, so seen by some, guys, as a leading indicator

for, but in the meanwhile, mandy, nice moves for transports itches absolutely. thank you so much, dom. let's talk some numbers. today we're talking netflix. the shares are up about 9%, upgraded to a buy. on an enter national expansion let's talk numbers. hi, guys, good to have you with us. give us the technicals for netflix. >> i have real mixed emotions, as a technician, i would like to look at stocks, strength begets strength, as they say, but i've got some real concerns with the chart, and concerns with the upgrade here as well. you can see we start off with a precipitous decline, the stock loses over 30% of the market value in just about two months. since they we put it very nice head-and-shoulders bottom. it gives us a nice directional signal to the upside and measured upside target by using

the height of the pattern and projecting that from the neckline which comes in around that 100 day moving average. that gives -- the stock's at 466 today, mandy, up over 50% over the last two months, but i don't think you need to chase the name here. we've reached that metric outside targets, once again, all major averages. i smell a bit too much euphoria here. i would not chase it. i would not short it, but i would not chase it. >> >> i would think after a stock has run up and doubled, goldman sachs putting a buy is a bold call. >> they just raised the bar today on net flick's ability to execute. they're expecting 62 million international sups. that's five times the numbers of

subs they had when they ended q1 this years. two times of expectation, so yeah, i think it's a high number. >> i thought it was interesting in that note, they also talked about the potential for children's show, how netflix is really small in this market with a lot of room for growth. >> yeah, and i think there is a lot of room for growth there, but to put the growth in perspecti perspective, right? you look at international growth, they're -- by 2017. is it possible? i think it's absolutely possible. i think the question is more speed. can they do it in the time frame they're talking? they're going to get there. i don't question that. i agree with rich. 465 bucks here, i think the stock had a tremendous move. if you owned it, i think you hold on to it. i think you wait to see if we get lower levels where you can

get involved. i think it's priced pretty fairly here. >> and nice pop with overgentleman momentum. gentlemen, thanks for the views, technical and fundamental. check on the the join line edition of "talking numbers" in partnership with yahoo finance. we got so close, a teeny two points, we're schlep away, but we might still get there. anything can happen. >> and still plenty of gains on the major indices, which is something different from what we've been seeing. for the do you. we'll be right back. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 searching for trade ideas that spark your curiosity tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 can take you in many directions. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you read this. watch that. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you look for what's next. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 our live online workshops tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like identifying market trends.

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prepare to be amazed. [ male announcer ] don't wait. call today to request your free decision guide and find the aarp medicare supplement plan to go the distance with you. go long. the dow 17,000 seems to be slipping further away. bob, why the fade in the last half hour or so? >> yeah, we were win two points and faded back. there's no news that's moving it back a little. just let's not get too concerned. we're there, essentially at 17,000. the trend remains to the up side. the broad rotation that's been going on throughout the year. for example, we're seeing some

groups, caterpillar, put up the full screen. like caterpillar, pushing the dow up, up 20% this year. intel up 19%, a classic health care stock, merck up 17%, and two classic consumers names, johnson & johnson, and disney, this isn't a tech ragly, no the a consumer rally, not a health care rally. it's broad. i mentioned the laggards helping in the month of june. look what happened to chevron. it's been a dog all years. it hasn't been doing anything until the last five or six weeks, now look at that move up right in the beginning of june there. chevron is up a couple points. four, five weeks ago it was down on the year. another sector, financials. i keep saying jpmorgan was just generally doing nothing, and you can see it moving up there in the last month or so, still not doing much, up just a bit on the year, goldman sachs, same situation. so flirtation is the key here. >> and these are just in terms

of today's move, right? just intraday, bob, you were highlighting that the two biggest gainers today, ibm and visa had actually been two of the biggest drags on the dow this year. >> and both of them, just to show you hose the price way matters, both those stocks adding about 70 points to the dow almost, so you have two names almost half of the dow's gains. >> okay. bob, thank you so much. let's bring in mary thompson as well. in all of this, we would like to know, what is the retail investor doing? what is the retail investor thinking, as they see potential a big number. >> and there is been talk that they haven't been participating first let's look at what the action with some of the discount broker, known as daily average revenue trades, putting this up, for the month of may, they actually showed improvement -- or for the month of june, they showed improvement from the month of may, up 2.5 to 4%. before you get too excited, they

were down 10% to 20% from june of last year. that was a bit of a disappointment. what we saw at the beginning of the year basically a pickup in the darts, as we are known. we haven't taken a look at etfs, but ici, the investment exude institute. ♪ing in the last week they have a measurement for domestic outflows, and then morningstar putting out that net outflows were at 6.9 billion in domestic equity funds for the month of may, so that would suggest a lot of interest from the retail investor, despite this rally to 17,000. >> we hear it over and over again. mary, thanks for rounding out those numbers. on the flowing. let's talk more about this rally art cashin joins us from the floor, from ubs, weight veteran. talk about what you're seeing, and the buyers specifically right now, who is driving this surge to start the month in the

second half? >> it's new monday for the new month, new half in the new quarter. you came in with that bias right before the opening, got a little help from some of the china data, and then when the 10:00 data didn't provide any hope for a pullback, they kind of doubled down, so it's really new money for the new month. you have some underfunded pensions and others trying to play catch-up. they've been behind the market, and that's why the market today is so broad, it's kind of an across the board selection. >> and you know what we're seeing, i guess, is one of the first high conviction days that we've seen in a little while. so far they seem to be talking about the lack of volume, the lack of conviction. is there anything to suggest maybe we'll see more conviction coming back into the mark from here on? >> you know, the very fact that we're talking about dow 17,000 might be possibly be it. you know, if it begins to make newspaper headlines and isn't

just something to put on a baseball cap, we may get the retail public a bit more excited about the market. they're scarcely in it, and i think -- >> but is that a bad thing? is that a bad thing when, you know, their ears perk up at 17,000? a lot of the gains being made? >> no, i don't know that it's a bad thing, unless it was overdone. they haven't been in. you would like to invite them in a bit. we would like to broaden this out. we talk about income inequality. the best thing to get is to get everybody aboard the same boat. that would be the whole wealth effect. what about 17,000 as a level. you and i have talked before. is that a key resistance, or somewhere above 17? >> no, in the dow, the resistance would be above that, more like dow 17 to 24, to 1730, somewhere in there. and even that is not that heavy. we're getting through some key

resistance in the s&p by counts, as you and i discussed earlier, getting up past 1977 was very helpful. so it looks like we can have clear sailing unless we've exhausted ourselves in this tease, getting two points away from 17,000. >> well, art cashing, we know you'll be with us for the ride. always always art cashin on the floor of from ubs. halfway through the year, folks. we're taking the temperature of the economy through areas -- housing, automobiles and retail, with three very different experts. stay with us.

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washington, d.c. tim rudd. great to have you with us, tim. what does the second half look like? >> we're still very bullish at the group. i would say we've graduated from a standing el on investigation to more of aclap. there's a lot of good things going for the housing market but still i wouldn't call it perverted as much as i would call it unprecedented. you have things that are really driving the housing market that we've never seen before and this tight correlation that we're going to have to watch between employment and interest rates, if we ever see those break where you see interest rates go up and employment stay the same or go down, those are the kind of things that will derail it. >> even if interest rates go up, right, to what degree would you expect them to go up? historically my guess is they'd still be on a relative basis pretty low. we are talking about mortgage rates of course. >> you have to get interest rates up to 6.5% to get to the

ofordability rates most americans are. every time rates go up 1%, doesn't sound like a lot but it's about a 10%, 12% tax on the purchase price of a house. the only way you make that up is through income growth. since we haven't seen real income growth in 30 years i'm handicapping that pretty low. >> and also you've seen prices rise and the concern, tim, is that the affordability which is the mortgage rates along with higher prices is covering out first time home buyers which haven't been participating in the housing recovery. what is your outlook there? dough they finally swoop in here? >> the challenging part is the millenials. group 27 to 35, they're the poorest they've been since the great depression. the prospects for jobs, their income, their wealth, it's really in a tragic state and what's happening is you're seeing investors not so much institutional investors but mom and pop investors picking off those properties, $250,000 and below that even the good

millenials are looking for, they can't get, too competitive and they can't compete with the cash buyer. >> thanks for the check on housing. tim, let's move on to the auto sector. senior analyst jessica caldwell, joan swoon was the headline ahead of the auto sales numbers coming out today. they were much better than expected. why? >> looks like we lost jessica. >> okay, let's move aening lo and talk about retail and maybe get back. the state of the retail situation in america, i.e., ask the consumer. let's get to jay rogers. you're optimistic, there are those that are not but you're optimistic, why? >> i was even more optimistic until i heard the retail segment but yes i'm optimistic on the retail sales for the back half of the year. we have a lot of things going for us the right way. it's going to be a much better calendar than last year, an

extra day between thanksgiving and christmas sales. it's hard to imagine the weather is as bad. >> god forbid. >> so we can probably get that break and i also think we're seeing a stronger consumer. people for the first time in a while have been willing to open their credit card up and use it and we're seeing saving rates fall. those two things have to have to have a good drchristmas. >> why do you think it will be an incredibly strong promotional season as well? by strong promotional season i mean really big discounts >> because it's never not going to be again for the rest of your spending life and the reason it's not is because last year, 40% off became the new norm. 30% off they train themselves, if you watch macy's, able to turn in a 40.6% gross margin year on year and be much more promotional than the prior year they learned how to play the

game and the best retrailers, macy, walmart, costco, all of them learned how to play the game. the promotions are in the plan and they'll happen. >> covering the consumer stocks in particular and retailers at the lower income to middle income range, the walmarts of the world is that you can't really talk about the consumer anymore. there are two consumers and it's bifurcated and you're not seeing that relief you see at the high end and low end. the question is what do you do about that and how do you fix that? >> well, you can't fix it. we'll have to have that fixed by the economy, maybe the government can help fix it. >> why isn't it happening? >> bifurcation occurred because the middle class isn't strong anymore. you're seeing 17,000 on the dow, assets are doing really well. people who live off of that side of the economy are doing well. people who aren't getting as much into food stamps as last year, who don't see wages grow and don't see much in job

growth, the whole lower part of the economy, they're struggling a little bit but they're in better shape this year than last year. we're still going to see better sales. >> what do you like and what don't you like as well? >> i don't like people inside the mall that aren't multiomni channel retailers. i like macy's. i like walmart. i like costco and nordstroms. i like footloerk, i like gap. most of the other people stuck in t in the mall i don't like. >> jan, thank you so much. >> we should note on the consumer note that auto sales did come in much sharply higher than expected. >> did consumers spend on vehicles in the first half, average transaction prices hitting a record in the first half. >> amazing headlines. coming up we're going to stay on the markets here. we continue to look at dow 17,000, even though we're coming back a little bit from today we're seeing strong gains of the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq.

the nasdaq up 1%, some of the momentum names like biotech leading the way. we'll be right back. can i get my actual credit report... like, the one the bank sees? [ male voice ] sheesh, i feel like i'm being interrogated over here. [ male voice ] she's onto us. dump her. [ pay phone rings ] hello? oh, man. that never gets old. no, it does not. [ female announcer ] not all credit report sites are equal. experian.com members get personalized help and a real credit report. join now at experian.com with enrollment in experian credit tracker.

okay, well, we were hoping that we would get dow 17,000 in the hour of "stroet signs." we were within two points of 17,000, now we're sitting at 16,970. year-to-date the dow is up by 2.4%, the s&p just up over 6%.

now in the month of july, quick stat for july, july has been the fourth best month for the dow, up on average 1.2%. this is putting it in historical context since 1950. >> the s&p 500 july has been traditionally a strong month, if you go back five years for instance, 0'11 was the only dow year. the s&p stock is up 6% so far for the year. it's not just stocks. bonds have had an historic rally, commodities and corporate bonds are up. there's the ten-year treasury note yield reflecting some optimism in today's session with a sell-off in bonds, yields higher but nothing sharply. >> you raise the point where excellent classes are in tandem. recently they're all moving high except for the dollar. we're going to keep on watching

dow 17,000 as we hand it over to "closing bell." thanks for joining us, sarah. >> cookout tomorrow. >> "closing bell" comes up next. welcome to the "closing bell. "i'm kelly evans back here at the new york stock exchange. this is going to be a pretty interesting and postentially historic final hour of trade. >> i'm bill griffith at cnbc headquarters. heck of a way to kick off the second half of this year, not just all-time highs we're watching, dow 17,000 is also on the radar screen. we came tantalizingly close a couple of hours ago, i think it was about two points, pulled back a bit but we're still very close right now a