cent cently cently recent hingncncncncerinly ferinly f ths thank you for all your thoughts this afternoon. we want to get over to melissa lee and the "fast money" crew with a look at what's on tap. leal he he.thi melissa. >> hey, there, kalely. we have a top pick analyst for his top picks him one is apple. two of them are stocks we barely ever talk about on this show and probably on this network, in pe pemo pe pemo&p&p&p&pex 3da a a a a a a a fact. >> stay tuned. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets, al new york city's time square, the im dctor. ac.acthatavthat havclthatavthatu m mtitimetimef f f babarisf f v ctor. ctor. dnknknknk>> a bigititititititits atry fd dealship traders are kim see mohr, brian kelly, guy adami. a record for the dow. coiffers breaking out, commodity stocks, seeing pretty gig gains today. tomorrow a shortened trading day. we will include the jobs number and the european central bank decision. could those reports spark some big changes in the market, especially, as we are lulled g thugh. into believing this is a low environment. thin y pbaykkkkkppedusstrestrese >> the fed is keeping it low. yellin today perpetuated that,

basically, said it's about the pragmatic oversight of markets and regulators can control that. wee jele ftel,tel,lis s iss is that's not true. what we are seeing the dollar to rally. o8:15 tomorrow could be the point you see the dollar move. the brewery master in portland. at 8:30 it could knock it into he loves his job. the next stratosphere. his job has been harder to do. i mean that, in terms of hop prices have doubled. volatility t. dollar is your every craft brewer globally signal to watch volatility. wants the aroma hop grown in the >> i think tomorrow could be a hugely volatile day. pacific northwest for their first of all, holiday, ecb. the way the market is setting up right now. we had a big sell-off, the our brokers tell us we need to dollar was stronger today. so you have a lot of momentum contract out for many years ahead of time. going kind of the risk-on type we are contracted out three of trade. years ahead. can you either get that to i know some breweries are krrth continue. it reverses, if it comes in horrible, that jobs number, i out five years ahead. think you got a lot of people >> reporter: and seriously, how unwanting position, including seriously do they take their myself. hops in oregon? >> that is a big move in the local single-a ball club has commodities. these occur over the course of a mascot called barley the hop, who dances like he has 100 ibus. months. copper, 18-week high, platinum ten-month high. gold the highest level since that's ipa talk. part of the shortage to hops,

march. >> i think it's in tech. though, they had a poor crop last year. timmy's point about the dollar there is so much demand, might throw a little monkey melissa, a lot of farmers are wrench. i don't think it does. i think copper is it's own pulling out other crops like rye animal. you talk about the steel stocks. and supply will meet demand the bond market is tough, this eventually. the fears will eventually exceed is going to be a good job numbers as well. demand. back to you. >> wow, i like that mascot. but if they're wrong, i mean, the last two days sell-off in good work finding that. the bond market could reverse >> suffer, drinking that beer, itself extraordinarily quickly. tomorrow will be an interesting couple hours. hoping around. >> lock at that. >> i am always hesitant to take all right. jane wells, have a great weekend. you already started i see. the adp number as gospel. even though beer drinking is on we know what the number is not for certain what adp said the the rise a scotland based number would be. >> take it as gospel? >> would not take it as gospel. company like macallen is making >> got it. huge drandz in the united agreed. states. with us paul rorks goss. >> i think anything that's a good football doesn't meen need to be adp to support this market would be if un. >> so we have the dollar move good to see you. >> thank you for having me. >> 40% of the premium beer higher because economic strength is being or is continuing. drinksers are in the united so what does that do to the states. >> almost 35%. commodity trades? >> gold and silver, we had a although you will see reviews strong dollar, we had high about valentine i china, india, interest rates and gold and

silver initially sold off on brazil, right around affect, that adp number. there will be more in the united states in the next five years. they came roaring back. this is still the gorilla in the i don't think in terms of copper, that's also very, very united states for premium strong here. so i don't think it does spirits. >> in terms of what kind of anything to those trades. spirits? we have some of your portfolio >> the best trade of the bunch is if copper. brand here on the desk. if you think what copper has where is the most growth right been painted as, it's been now? >> americans are drinking painted basically the copper better. i.that itself the thing. miners have the same issues in premier monetizations. oversupply as iron ore and coal that plays into our portfolio. dust, absolutely not true. when you talk about something freeport is a company now that's taken maybe 15, 20, 25 years to produce, that works essentially. >> an energy company. >> some is an energy play. really well for us, therefore, that's very good news, if u.s. is definitely a number especially with what's going on one priority for us. in the energy world, southern >> there are a lot of other copper, tech resources, all spirits markers going after this these names are places to play, market as well. they may be beggar, also, how do relative to their history, to you stand out in this part of where we are in the check cycle. our, let's take, prince, they're very cheap. i would sell aluminum against macallen. you might go to a bar. >> you might want to. >> one might go to a bar and one it, which has rallied a lot. >> it finally, tim talked about might see ten other bottles of this, it feels like it's auto of that malaise. scotchs, not including the older one. >> essentially, our marketing

model has been the same for 30, eight or nine months ago, fine 40 years, it's experiential, getting close to consumers. or dead money. it's eight or nine months let them taste the product. behind. >> how about mining, we saw macallan is paying the price for regular cast. we control 20% of the hops caterpillar, at the same time the ceo said the slow june in china steeper than expected. >> steeper, but people are sellers in short supply. expecting that's the trough. a bottle is takes up to 18 years so now everybody wants to get to produce. in. you saw a bunch of different so, therefore, we have a negative news items come out. people are saying, ma ib this is the bottom, you are seeing attorney on the market so if you commodity prices rise. are looking for something full exactly what guy said, you see steel, comb, actually catching a bodied, the style in the glass, it's the answer. bit nap, which we haven't seen >> i understand 7% of the flavor in a long time. is from the caste. >> get ready, unleaded gasoline, >> absolutely. >> so if that's that's in short supply, does that mean the price gasbuddy.com predicting it will of macallan will go higher? be the most expensive july 4th. the forecast comes as tropical at least should we be stocking storm arthur comes up with east up right now? coast and creates jitters. >> i think if you are looking, i tom, great to have you with us. still consider it a good value. >> it's nice to be here. >> what are your expectations in new york you probably pay about $60 a bottle. into the summer? will it get worse? we are investing $200 million.

>> i think it is a glass is half if payback is something like 20, full forecast we are at the highest prices for july 4th 25 years. it takes us six years to maybe since 2008 when everyone lost that. their heads, actually, we had so i can tell you, yep, almost higher prices before, at other certain the price will go up the times of the year, in spring. next few years. >> you have been trading in the you look at crude oil, everybody talks about commoditys moving spirit space? up, wti actually in the field is >> definitely. i think there is a lot to do. about five or $6 lower than when the aspirational demand of high end liquors. at home, we are seeing a crock mosul fell to iraq. and smaller distilleries rising we are actually looking at a modest gasoline prices this up. a good friend of ours has summer. there is a lot of fear of $4 and millbrooke, whiskey, they're drinking more of it. $5. i think it would take a $175 is this a threat to you guys and how do you see that? barrel oil, not likely. >> i mean a rising tide, there >> you say the geopolitical is more interest in spirits. people are seeing it the way we risks and you are not concerned saw draft beers a few years ago. about hurricane season. these are things that typically we have brands like cutty sark freeze the market. >> it's very rare it destroys one time in 1965 was the largest supply. so this hurricane that's coming premium sold in the united states. up the coast or this tropical told will you find it difficult storm, it will destroy a little to find it. so people are looking for you a demand. it takes the hurricane to thentic brands, this is a scotch mississippi and corps us the pro he mix.

christy to really destroy it's been rediscovered. supply. >> that hasn't happened since distilleries are popping up, people are looking back to the 2008. >> so what is the trajectory we past the ones that did well in will see if terms of gas prices? the 1920s with pro-big. >> americans are drinking less, >> i think the word is "drift." drinking better. i think we drift lower in the you want them to drink less or more better? short-term. then we drift much lower after >> a glass of moderation. labor day. after labor day the formula for >> thanks, for coming by. appreciate it. making gasoline is much easier. paul rolls of ceo edgerton's it's like collecting gluten-43 americas. >> we're not advocateing to you manufacture in the summer. drinking to excess here on fast then can you use all sorts of money. cheap hydrocarbons in the fall. >> we're not advocateing anything. >> i'm a johnny black rocks guy. have you an event risk with iraq. you have an event wisk i risk in the summertime with hurricanes. digio has been trading, it is it's not nearly as blowing as building a base in a couple some people might have you weeks. 19 times foreign earnings think. i think it's great. expensive t. stock is higher, we are actually going to be though. >> worry coming right back. stay tuned. producing probably 4 million barrels, more than we did during the first arab spring and that . will happen in 2015. >> well, let me ask you this, for everybody out there, we hear about the shale bomb, how there is a wash in oil, yet, we're at the highest gas prices since 2008. >> that to me says we have a refinery problem. can you explain to me why we

have high gas prices if we have a glut of oil? >> we have high price, they're lower than every western country, principally because of taxes. we had action tax increases since 2008. we are paying more. everyone likes to group about it. we paid a little less in the first half of 2014 than we paid in each of the last three years. so it's modest. and i understand the frustration that people have. the other side of that is we've got a strategic petroleum reserve right now that's $75 billion worth of oil sitting there and sort of the u.s. treasury. and that's a weapon. that's something that we can use or that we have kind of to hold in obeyians if something apocalyptic does happen. >> what is the psychological price that starts to destroy demand? >> i this i the psych logical price is above $4 in the united states, that's a moving target. we have that in. ka. california may go higher. in 2014 they started paying for

cap in trade. that's about 15 cents right now. it's about $4. there are some that drive less when it's less than. that they think oil companies are basically taking advantage of them. so believe it or not, some people will drive less because of spite. we see that sometimes in the northeast and some other places. we are not near those thresholds now. i don't expect that any of the driving demand or the consumer optimism is going to be hurt unless, really, iraq, the violence spreads to southern iraq, where the experts happen. >> great to see you. thanks for your time. all right, good news for the consumer. >> well, a guess. i'm not so certain that is. i guess it is on the margins good news. i'm in the camp. i think the consumer is pretty strapped here. we will find out tomorrow with this reporting report. i think it's valoro. it sets up pretty interesting. i think you saw the capitulation day when you traded 40-something million shares at $50 bucks. that's your boeingy. it's right there right now. risk reward valoro sets up more

than it has in a long time. >> this morning, we have libya. it looks like there is a cease-fire, an agreement, where the port is opening there. that should give some cushion in case there is a short-term interruption. >> i'm not even watching wti. i'm watching brent. i'm looking at oec numbers. i like exsons, total, bp. they're all evaluations somewhat cheap for their history. play it that way. >> apple is set to break out in the second half of the year, according to one top tech today year unveiling a analyst, he will explain why and give you under the radar plays. ynbc.com called behind the trade. every week traders will dig beep plus, shares of delta, as we e deep into a trade mentioned on head into a major travel weekend. find out why and what it means "fast money." pricelynn found on yesterday's for the rest of the airline's show, today he takes you behind sector straight ahead on "fast." the trade at fastmoney.cnbc just take a closer look. doak. it works how you want to work. you want to lock on and check it out. with a fidelity investment professional... we should mention we have a big event in weekend with nautilus. or managing your investments on your own. >> we do. we are sponsoring john fitch mna helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. fighter fighting on saturday and save on taxes

where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. july 5th. >> mean dude. >> try to take the hat away from tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. that guy, not going to happen. he is the first professional call or come in today for a free one-on-one review. athlete. he played to be paid with digital currency 4:00 on thank ythank you for defendiyour sacrifice. saturday. >> nice job. >> okay. >> time for the final trade for and thank you for your bravery. week, tim check it off. thank you colonel. >> constellation brand, i would thank you daddy. fade, valuation expensive. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance can be one of them. >> brian kelly. >> buy some slv. >> with the rosneft deal, i look if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members it here. >> guy. >> we had a street fight about this recently, letter x, started plan to stay for life. making that stealth move higher. at every ford dealership, you'll find the works! >> i'm melissa lee. melissa lee. it's a complete checkup of the services your vehicle needs. thanks for watching. so prepare your car for any road trip we'll see you monday. by taking it to an expert ford technician. have a great holiday weekend. because no matter your destination good maintenance helps you save at the pump. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make

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apple gained nearly 9% vs. 7%. large cap names like apple, microsoft, hp, big winners. which tech stops will outperform him joining us with picks the ubs managing director.

when i must out on twitter you were going to put the three top picks. people put out apple. they know you so well. in terms of unrevealing itself as a second half stover, what are the catalysts that you are expecting? >> melissa, the catalysts are basically the few products. we waited three years for new products. we will get two new beggar iphones. we think that will be huge. perhaps half the market is buying phones larger than anything apple sells today. so their available market is suddenly going to take off. some of you are waiting for 4.7, 5 money 5 inch. i'm getting older on my eyes, give me a bicker screen. i think we will have the apple iwatch. we tnk the s app has s app hasrey n-n-n-n- eli eli i coany.dowell dowell hinkhe ac iipad cacacacangtic

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