tv Fast Money CNBC July 10, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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amove 34% in their ten year, which has been very good resistance. >> great stuff. as we talk through all this "fast money" coming up in a few minutes, melissa lee. >> wells fargo is reporting tomorrow, we got a top analyst who says four of the major banks are dead money right now. we'll name names at 5:00. >> all right. over to you. "fast money" starts right now. new york city's time's square, i'll melissa lee. your traders are tim moore, steve grasso, a whipsaw day on the street. fears of contagion over portugal causing a sea of red. the markets end of the day recouping much of those losses, a solid reversal into the afternoon. small caps industrials and financials what happens to the sell-off? tim seymour? >> i tell you what, to me, it was less about portugal than positioning. yes, a catalyst, yes, still something on people's mind. complacency. i think we talked about it
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plenty of time with the lack of volatility in these markets. you look at espirancito santo. i think you are in a place where you have a lot of people that really didn't understand the situation, in fact, significant cross holdings. if you did the math, it was just discussed. i think if you look at where the markets are here, the s&p gave them handles. it's really where you want to go on positions that are under weight. we will talk about minors, the banks. these are places where you have a lot of upside. you have earnings moment item going into the second quarter. >> i think if you sold the mark, portugal, a $3 billion port goes bank, the news has been out there a while. we know they have had problems. >> you insure. >> not because of portugal. because of retail sales, because of what happened in japan. we have japan machine orders down 19% overnight. that was a pretty big number. we seen some german industrial production and french production, much weaker than expected. so for me, it's that global
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economy, secular stagnation, again the world is not falling apart. it's not as strong as it was two or three weeks ago when we got some good pmiment i guess it's like tim's positioning, things are changing, people got ahead of themselves. >> we did see a reversal in the bond market. at the end of the day the small caps are down by 130%. there is a defensive stance to the mark even with the reversal over the broader market. >> a little bit. i didn't think it was really that much. you didn't see panicky selling at all. you den get that sense t. volatility index, though it was up, it didn't spike to anywhere close to what i think of as the real fear level. so, you know, to me the mark was still, it's a little too expensive to buy, but i within want to short and get out of stuff here. then the dilemma is at what point do you sell your protection? the volatility is up. it's not high enough. i want to say one point with b.k., i actually saw retail numbers that were okay today,
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better than okay. we had same store data that was pretty good. >> and the data wasn't baaed. >> you see wal-mart, a big relevant tailer not doing that well. a lot of the dollar stores not doing that well. after the close the gap down. in the broad sent of it, i think they have, for me, it was enough. i still have long equity positions. i got short futures, which made me a little net short as a protection and to be not so exposed to the market. >> you know, it's not panicky. i don't think there is any panic. i think there is confusion now. people don't know what to do with that money. that's how you see that reach for utilities. the thing that shows me confusion when you see crude down, then you see all the stocks not follow. so you don't see all those energy plays, those subsectors really following. >> that rarely happens, when you see crude come in, you see the whole batch get served. >> we had wti down ten straight sessions. yet, we still made record highs
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on the din i indices during that time frame. isn't that an example of crude being down and equities not following? >> i'm sorry. the oil related equities, if you see the subsector, you don't see them following oil where they normally would follow oil, which means that people are totally under invested. so you get to see this rotation. they're still locking to buy the unloved names, which are the energy names and they're still looking for yield, which are the utilities. >> it feels like there's fear of missing the upside at this point. people are holding on. >> i think there has been pure missing the upside for a year-and-a-half. the money hasn't been missing. i do mean hedge funds, if you are any type of a long short player for the macroguy, they do not take part a. lot of these guys are fantastic and do their job every day. if you look at the world we are in right now. there is a dispute on this desk. i actually think the world is just fine.
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even the chinese data, i was reading some people cocooning, exports are up better-than-expected. imports are 5-and-a-half the china data bottomed. the jap fozzie data was disappointing. overall, they are on a trajectory not as high as we want it to be. it's better. equities are reflecting people are looking for places that they can find growth at a reasonable price. value is very difficult to find right now. >> i want to tell you about the reverse also. while he had the broader reversal, some are worth highlighting here. let's start off with the xil. this is not the first time we seen people going in willing to buy the dip. >> right. i think it's a combination. b.k. has spoken to this. you see names that have been thrown out. when oil is coming in. that's usually when you reach for airlines. you didn't see that, as you said, it was dun for about nine days or. so but you started to see it when ual came out with the numbers. they were good numbers.
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it's a good metric to look at where other companies had poor ones, ual had a good one. so that started to inspire a little buying in this space. >> all right. i want to go to biotech as well. yesterday, b.k., you said biotech would be a bellwhether in the market. >> it was, by the way. >> which we all poo-pooed by the way to use his term. >> listen, the theory behind that is the biotech is the most speculative area you can be in. you will get this drug and it will be blockbuster or going to zero. that's to me, speculation. you see those names go down, that means speculation is coming out of the market. if you couple that, socl is the social media etf. you can see if there is an froth, social media stocks turn the market turns. >> it's hard to play when the arbitor's sentiment when there is nothing related. >> the sentiment. that's what i mean. >> no, ai agree with you.
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if you look at the ibmspy spread we had on in good times against us in a day like today, it's actually not a bad place to be. >> let's talk about microsoft as well, tim. >> this is one i was poo-pooing over last woke to use my term, no denying that microsoft has been on a different trajectory in the last 18 months. na della's approach towards productivity and platform versus bombers devices and services is something the market takes note of. when you look at a 16 times multiple, this is a stock i don't think has a great job. having said that, this traversed today and big cap tech, megacap tech is a place people feel comfortable. they're not overpaying. it's not dope value anymore. >> so i'm long on microsoft. that was very earn courageing to me today. i think it goes to the fact you will not get this horrendously strong economic gross. so you buy microsoft. it will plug along, you get a nice dividend yield i don't think you can get hurt.
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>> i don't think you can go to new highs on biotech or social media, intel up 20% 84-to-date. microsoft up 11% or so. you need those players. you need social media. really, to get the retail investor excited, which gets institutions excited, which gets toem people to chase. believe it or not, it's a circular argument. >> you say it's to change the momentum? >> i think they have to chase momentum. when you chase intel, you can have your head on straight. this is where i'm willing to pay. when you chase a name like twitter, facebook and tesla. you say, guys, buy the thing. it's breaking out here. >> valuations are never a metric. >> all right. one area that didn't take place, take part i should say if today's reversal. finishing as the third worst group of the fact, financials. paul miller is head of fdr capital markets. joins us now, paul, great to have you with us. >> you are welcome. >> obviously arc big part of your thesis has to do with where
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the ten-84 yield is going. let's stay it stays where it is, 23.35%. what happens to the banks? >> i this i the banks factor sell off and further growth down the road. the banks need a higher yield, a higher ten year. a lot of people factor into their models, 100. 2300 year basis growths on that number. i'm on the side that rates will stay lower longer than people think. because i don't think the economy is firing on all pistons right now. not that it's doing bad, no long growth. it's not good fundamentals for the banks. however, a lot of people have to be exposed to this sector. that's why you have seen these names factor in. better fundamental also that's out there. if the rates do go up, kroeng these banks can earn what a lot of people are expecting. however, any time you see these ten 84s come in, these banks will tread off. >> you say dead water, i say dead money. let's talk about the once that
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are dead money in my terms. have you four of them. >> stock analysts never like to be called dead money. anyway, banc of america and j.p. morgan i think sit in those categories. banc of america is still up some legal liability. they got to figure out. on top of that, they don't earn their calls to capital. their cule structure is not in line with the revenue structure and they're not earning 10% returns. when they get there, they need the 15% a week or $23 earnings to get this stock to the next level. the trading range is 15 and $16 bucks. j.p. morgan had a nice run. they're having fixed trouble in the equity. that's going to be a drag on the earnings going forward. they're not getting that margin expansion. they are backing out of mortgages, credit is going well, wealth management is a home run. i don't see this stock having a lot of earnings crest to get it up to that next level. so, therefore, what we like a the wells fargos of the world. they keep hitting singles and doubles and getting that
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earnings growth up there. mortgage banking isn't what it used to be. wells is on a relative basis is what you want to be in this group. those other two, even though they are good companies, i think they're fairly valued at these levels. >> paul, great to have you with us. thanks, for your time. paul miller, fdr. bank of america, morgan stanley, j.p. morgan, few agrees. >> b.k. does. the best is the capital markets business of some of these banks, they have been thrown out with the bath water. if you get any type of volatility, they may pick up. it's like bogey vol at a low price, beyond that, i think they're dead. >> look at the capital markets business. if anything, going into this june quarter, the second half of june was insane in terms of equity underwriting. i think there is going to be a major surprise in terms of what these guys sell on investment banking. i also think if you look at the xlf in which it's traded over the last three-to-six months,
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you basically have been flatlining. i think it's been priced in these stocks for a long time. >> i agree, i guess i'm running the dead money portfolio on the financial side, with i is okay. i think, though, bask of america at these prices, i don't think it reflects a lot of optimism. i don't think it reflects in that interest margin that explains largely. i think it's a wide stagnant margin, with sip what we have seen. >> the reason wells fargo is outperforming. they don't have all the rifgs. wells fargo probably continues. >> and out with earnings tomorrow morning. kev ron seems to be down. don chu is back with the latest. >> this the 2014 for chevron. in it chevron says earnings for the second quarter are expected to be higher than the first quarter. now to put that in context, earnings per share in the first quarter for chevron $23.36 a share. the average analyst estimate for second quarter earnings is $23.76 a share.
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so that's there. they said u.s. net oil production was higher in the first quarter primarily due to less maintenance in the gulf of mexico and increased production in the permian basin also on the downstream or refining and marketing side, they said that earnings for the full quarter are expected to be comparable for the higher quarter, particularly on the west coast or offset by lower volumes and higher operating expenses. again the stock is up marginally in the after hours. still, that's kref ron's interim report on second quarter results. back over to you guys. >> thanks, for that. this is great. this is exactly what these guys have been guiding. they had a different proposition over the majors. they are giving you production growth. they are growing 4-and-a-half percent per 84. total is 3.3. i yoen own toll, i don't own
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chevron. i think chevron looks very interesting here. this is a stock over the last six months in this energy rally, i think there has been some question about these developments and what they will yield. this is very good news. coming up next, gold comes back into play. could the minors be the best way to play it? later on, verizon is doyleing up a strong performance today. find out what the company ceo said earlier on cnbc that sent the stocks shooting higher and how to trade it later on in the show. f provokes lust. ♪ it elicits pride... ...incites envy... ♪
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[ music playing ] >> a wedding song. >> i us as walk into that. >> take a look at gold today getting a boost early in the session as investors look for safety. there could be an upside for the miners even after a 20% run this year. let's bring in senior research analyst mike dudas. critical to your thesis is we are entering a critical period for gold, june 30th through july 31st, which would encompass the wedding season?
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>> you have pre-buying for the christmas holiday. the summer may go away. you get seasonally 11 hour lasts 13 years, gold had an average move to 6% higher. in the miners we had double digit moves in that time period. >> where do you see dpold prices going? you point out on your note you thought 1,500 could be in the cards? >> absolutely. so i think there is three fundamental also, three things we look at the fundamental also, which we think are supportive with low nominal interest rates and the fear we see creep into the mark. we think from the san antonioal aspect we talk about, technically the charges look good, carter worth has been positive on the bulls to bears reversal. that has shown up in the metal and the names as well. when you look at the metal and the miners, the viewers at home, there is always that discrepancy
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the question mark whether you buy the actual metal or the miners. on the way up, the miners always outperform the metal. >> very much so. there are degrees how well they outporl t. past couple years in 2011 and '12 when the gold and the miners were hit hard. >> on the way down. when you think gold is rallying, you should buy the miners. >> typically, you'd want to buy some of the smaller more volatile names as opposed to the heavy miners the juniors are in that sort of look at the gdxj on the upside. you have that conviction. in this marketplace the gold market has burned a lot of people in the past years. >> nuance is a top pick, there have been rumblings recently they are pushing for nuance to examine a merger or to break up. down that is likely? is that a part of the reason you are so bullish on the name? >> i think it's newmont is doing
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better things for cash flow. the newmont situation, i think there is a cooling off period. it got hot and heavy in april. a lot of discussions with the board and what was going to happen. i think the public is taking a timeout, seeing how things work out. i anticipate in the next six to twelve monthss they may think of doing joint ventures, depending on how the gold market goes. certainly the market will be careful to watch how things work with the two biggest miners in north america. >> you like eagle and core mining. >> my growth name it has some of the best growth in the mid and large cap names agnuco. stock has underperformed, coeur, which get that pop in gold or silver, i think you can see good upside there. >> have you definitely seen the danger of dividends elimination or cuts behind this? >> i think the dividend elittle nation the capital spending cuts, cutting costs, these miners are starting to act more like real companies which hasn't
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happened in 20 years. i have been following the industry way too long. they're feeling like they're real companies. if we get a sense that gold is not going to collapse to $1 thoufl. many of these companies can generate cash at those levels and returns and i think the market will bid up the multiples. >> mike, thanks for coming by. what's our trade? >> mike makes a great point in terms of where goel gold miners will go. newmont worries me, i think they need to keep their production at a level unless if they do not, they would run into downgrade. i think this is a big issue. a lot of the miners have to be more efficient and with their high growth mines, they have to go after. that i like barrick. it's the best balance sheet. they're the most conservative on the balance sheet. >> listen, i'm in gold. i'm in silver. i like both of those trade, i do think this could be an inflexion point for the gold miners though. as mike was talking about, they're acting like a company,
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similar to how their airlines ran them differently. i like the gold, i like the miners. i think you can buy both of them. >> 84 to date gdx is up 28%. if you look at gdxj you are up 45%. if you believe, i'm long gdx. of course, i'm a schmuck. >> come again? >> i don't know what that means? >> that's a listing company. so now few want to be long this, you got to be long miners. >> at one point you used to play gdxj. >> listen, you can probably get back into it. i stopped playing it. it was completely crazy. those are the names when gold is going down, have you as to worry about liquidity issues. i think on the way up, it's hard for bk to buy, maybe. coming up, why goldman may not be so proud of its list on a boat on earnings. don't lock now the old trade is flying high, microsoft and intel
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welcome back to "fast money." yes, the gap is moving lower in the after hours after the retail reported its june comparable store sales fell by 23%. now if you break it down, it's gap stores and banana republic stores all fell 7% in terms of comparable store sales. the only positive is old navy sales up 7%. you can see the stock off its after market lows. another piece of commentary, melissa, low end, lower i should say, old navy, besting some of the higher end products of banana republic and gap.
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over to you. >> what's the trade on gap? >> that's actually counter to what i would have thought. old navy is the lowest price line up 7%. that's very good performance. gap, itself, isn't expensive. i hope it's not a proxy or a bellwhether for the rest of the retail earnings. >> i like gap. i like it for the supply chain initiatives and the coin brand, old navy is a much better brand for china because of the price points, the expectation is at least if you listen to management. they will have a billion dollar sales out of china by 2015 or '16. that's good news for a company that needs to stay somewhere else. >> let's look at auto supplier, shares are soaring, hitting an all time high on news they received a takeover bid from an unknown source. karen. >> it was not known to me. it was revealed, actually. zf. i can't pronounce it, tim my probably can. it is a german firm. >> i'm not going to try.
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>> they're real, they're absolutely real. it was weird how it came out. trw did confirm. they hired goldman sachs. i think this is interesting not just for trw, we could see more industrial deals. that's what i would love to see. i don't know if it's a bidding war, they're only negotiating with them. i'd love to see more deals in this space. >> next up verizon, after the ceo pre-announced new subscribers earlier today on cnbc. take a listen. >> we think this is going to be a great quarter for us. we'll have our full results on the 22nd of july. but we added over 1.4 million subscribers post-pay on that ad. we had record tablet growth, very smartphone growth and we delivered margins that were consistent with what we've done over the last several quarters. >> no, i don't spend my life on the golf course. >> it's a competitive space that he's in. although he sounded extremely
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positive on the name. all things he mentioned are great, but in this space, are you looking for yield, i would rather go with a utility. my utility, s-o, southern, up year-to-date. verizon is flat. es so gives you a better yield, verizon much too much competition. i think you are better off going utility. >> next up, tractor supply, guidance at an unfavorable weather conditions late last night. we should note not to pick on goldman sachs, but this note was really circulating yesterday. 22 names, 22 slots that would beat earnings, the winners of the earnings season, tractor supply was on that list. >> did i say beat? i meant the other way around. they didn't do so well. listen, thing to is down from 77, so nobody is magellan here discovering something new. i think in this case it's probably washed out. they had, they do more than just supply tractors, be i the way. >> like what else? >> they supply tractors here.
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>> oh. but it is somewhat, you saw today, it is somewhat of a proxy for a home retailer. >> exactly. >> farmers tan lotion, that type of thing. it is a bit a proxy for home depot and lowes, look at those today, their numbers were caught because of the agricultural side of it. so i'd be more worried about home depot and lowes than tractor supplies. they already had a tough year. still ahead, it's been the old tech trade that just the won't quit. intel has a what's happening 20% this year. as the long-time shareholder is sticking with the winning trade, an update on his trade next. lumber lick which dittors, another bad news for the housing trade. we are looking pence the wreckage and giving youly the housing stocks to buy right now. stay tuned. zplmpblts.
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serious three-year slump. let's bring in alpha one partner dan niles. he thinks it's the comeback of intel. dan, you have been long intel for a while now, correct? >> yeah, we have been long really over the last year off and on, but this is the best you've been able to feel about the company in a very long period of time and there is multiple drivers i think over the next 12 months to kind of keep it moving higher. >> it seems like this is a company that nobody really wants to admit they like. yet, this is one that has been charging ahead. in fact, you told our producer, i don't even like the company, but i own it. can you explain that? >> sure. those are the best stocks to own, quite honestly. it's kind of like apple on a stock 700, how many notes do you see and analysts saying it's going to a thousand. well, everybody likes it. it's glowing at 50% year over year and, you know, it's tough to keep up with that. what you want to do is look for inflexion points and with intel you had a couple that have
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happened and so the first one is really microsoft stops support for windows xp. so that gets all corporations who want in this environment where there is a lot of legal risks to hacking, et set remarks it gets a lot of them to start the upgrade process there. the second thing is tab ltd. and smartphone growth is starting to slow. i'm guessing every one of the people sitting on set with you has a smartphone, they got a tablet. three or four years ago, that wasn't the case. i mean, the ipad was only introduced in 2010. so what's happening is that growth 50% year over year in tablets and smartphones, the year, those numbers are continuing to be ratcheted down, people are thinking the number is closer to 10 to 20%. so now move of those dollars are moving back. pcs are getting old. it used to be rereplace them every four-to-five years several years ago with the advent of tablets and smartphones, that sort of got pushed out t. average year is six years. and so, you know, they're
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starting to be right back break down. that's helping replacement demand, intel, it's one of those where you are at this inflexion point where the last time you had positive pc growth was in q1 of 2012. now it looks like maybe in the q3 this year you'll get positive growth again for the first time and the stock is cheap. it's got a good dividend. nobody likes it even including the guys like me that own it because you are not talking about a sexy company but the multiple can go up and the earnings can continue to go higher. >> a skeptic, dan, would say part of that replacement cycle, it will go to pcs, the pcs will be replaced by other devices? does that matter? intel is not as positioned well in the mobile space. although, it is getting better in that front. >> kind of like the argument the main thing is going away t. last time i expected, ibm exists. they may not be doing the greatest. they're a market cap company. the thing is the pc is not going
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anywhere. is it going to grow at 20%? no, that's not the case. are people going to replace smartphones and tablets as well? the answer is yes. so you are going to have much more gdp type of growth rate numbers driven a lot more by replacement, but, you know, as pcs move into emerging markets as well, you are grand jury to see sort of a stabilization at low levels, but that doesn't mean you can't have a good stock. so don't confuse sexiness with what's a great stock. look at hp last year and the huge move that had as people went from worrying about it sort of getting killed to, oh, that business is kind of stabilizing. that's another one we own for the same reason. >> dan, we will leave it there. dan niles alpha one capital. it's not sexy, he says, but it does the job. >> no, go a step further, if intel, if the pc is not dead and there is a turning point there. dan mentioned periodic soft.
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i think that's one even though tim ppoed on the show. >> i own intel for the long term. to me if you look at the semis, they've outperformed the s&p seven great quarters. this is a greater run than in the dot-com areas. when the revisions haven't gone necessarily higher, at some point you say these aren't terribly cheap and you need to take some profits. >> tim, he said i don't like the company, it's not sexy. i was expecting, that was your girlfriend from georgetown or something like. is it going to come out of your mouth? >> thank you. >> i'm sorry. >> i usually fall for that line. we're going to move on now. >> time for positive drops. big movers of the day. coach down 1% karen. >> a tough retail, 1% is close to pop. the turn around has not started
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quite yet. drop for sarefta. >> i learned with: rovis. i think you go with ibb. more of a muted performance but you won't get hurt. granted it will be big chunky names. >> cray, a pop, 15% move. >> cray moved tore them today. they got a new contract today, actually, i haven't looked at a cray computer in probably ten years i don't think, but this new contract is going to be a longer-term type of contract. up 16%, you can't bite. on pullbacks i think you'd be okay. >> drop for all brands, up 3% in there speaking of girlfriends, they outperformed. this is the story of the stock. i think one part of their business line is working well. the other part is struggling from sluggish maltraffic t. street is largely overweight on this name. don't sell off. been oit. >> a photo opportunity.
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a 17-year-old belgian fan whose world cup photo went viral, now has something to cheer about. they were rooting for the belgian national team. she caught the eye of the camera. now after blowing up on twitter, she is going from super fan to super model. this week she signed a contract with loreal. >> i hear she's dating the prison guy. >> can you name the super model? theresa buell. >> gold star. moving on to one name, edison, shares moving higher sunedison, karen, you have been in this name. >> yes, this is a volatile space, obviously. this outperformed. there is positive data on the cost side. costs are coming down on the demand side, demand is going up. then you have this macro-issue of the yield codes, where they're getting cheaper, cheaper finance. the fundamentals are all there.
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the valuation is not cheap. but i'm going to stick with it even though it's volatile. >> my favorite part of this trade is more in the rooftop solar. this is why solar city gets the valuation that it gets. mable it doesn't preserve it. there are all these asset-backed listings, her to loan to cost of capital. every time they do them. so solar city which has struggled but is holding its own here i think deserves the valuation. i would stay in it. >> housing getting whacked today, lumber liquidator, three topics in the housing sector our next guest says are still worth the buy. beakers selling out of one of his trades. we will get an update out of him after the break. more "fast" after the break. .
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>> you are short oil because you there i the global economy -- >> secular stagnation, not falling apart. different story. >> secular stagnation. i don't know what that means, but the bottom line is consumer discretionary moved lower today and b.k. give us the update. >> i sold out of it this morning. really, the decision process was we seen oil down ten days in a row. this trade is just not working at all. when i saw the industrial production numbers coming out of europe, thing were slowing down. to me it just doesn't make any sense, so i figured let's just get out of it and re-ae valuate. didn't work. >> did dan call do a victory dance? do you know? >> i'm guessing in a sense he won the street fight. >> secular stagnation. >> a big word. >> send it back, check in with dom chu -- do you have more on rent-a-center? >> i do. if you thought xly was bad if
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today's trade, ren hft a-center is taking a big hit. this is america's rent-to-own operator, it pre-announced earnings to the second quarter that missed wall street estimates. ceo robert davis said that quote macro-economic pressures continue to burden our financially constrained customers contributing to a softer than expected demand in our u.s. business segments. consequently, revenues and earnings 2014 will not meet expectation itself. rent-a-center announced it will be entering the rent-to-own business for smartphones. it is targeting cash and credit strapped customers by smart up front ownership. the later read, melissa and crew the more bargain and cost conscience ones, back to you on that. lumber liquidators is being taken to the wood shed today. >> did you write that? >> no, it came out of my mouth. the retailer, saying fewer people are buying and
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renovateing their homes. so what does it mean? we cover the home building and building products industry. bob. good to see you. >> thank you. >> you put up a note essentially saying you think this renovation trade is sort of dying at this point. >> right, it's running out of gas and getting tough comps. a lot of investors were looking for a snap back after a tough winter. we are not seeing that. for example, a name we like with the competent management team we like what they do. we think they will miss second quarter numbers. >> i read that june note. you have an outperform rating. you said they were likely a miss. you come out with the july note, you haven't outperformed the rating on the stock. that doesn't make sense to me. >> so, a little bit of near term head winds, long term we like the story. but the new ceo is exploring strategic alternatives. so we could see a tax-free spin-off of the installation business and they could wind up retaining the high large end
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faster growing branded consumer products portfolio. so there is an opportunity here for a corporate trand formation that wond -- transformation that would unlock value. >> i didn't know lick ber liquidators. >> you'd never know. >> very well. how do you zoifr whether that is specific to them, what happens, unique to them versus it being a more macro-head wind in the industry? >> if i could marry that. >> armstrong which we cover, the market leader in hardwood flooring got hit today on the back of the lumber liquidators. i think it's pretty clear, there is softer consumer demand that than expected t. repair and remodel trade is starting to run out of gas. this is tougher for home depot, lowes and lumber liquidator guys feed into this. you will see less margin expansion. street consensus numbers are pretty high.
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it will be tough to clear the bar going into the second quarter. downside in the near term, stocks aren't going anywhere quick. we like names on a sell-off like mohawk, market leader, grey management, good long-term growth prospects. >> sounds like secular stagnation going on there. moving up the materials chain. so, cement, let's talk about cement. i met with them yesterday. half is the supplies. i think it will take extra supply because of anti--monopoly, et cetera, a lot of othis stuff has to be put down. certain parts are in a deficit. seven parts are in a trade. where are you on the cement or the core infrastructure trade? >> this is a place where there is the opposite of secular stagnation. >> to an extent, there is a lot of political gridlock in washington, d.c. t. highway trust fund is looking for the passage of a multi-year funding bill to finance road work.
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>> i am talking about cemex. where you see a demand for cement and projects. >> i would tie in mark mar yetta which bought a company and as a result can, the u.s. leader for aggregates. they've had a good run. they've performed well. there is at love uncertainty, go everyone the dysfunction in d.c. which is mitigating some of our enthusiasm. year-to-date, volumes are strong, environment is healthy. that's a positive for cemex. going forward, it's a little less but cloudier. they are causing reluctance. >> thanks for stopping by. what's our housing trade, if any? >> i don't know why. >> i mean, i don't know, you want to go against the grin and say i like something. >> kb homes. they have a deferred asset coming on in the next month or. so it seems like the most expin pensive place in this play. it looks like immediately one of
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the cheapest place in this play. it got driven down with all this news we just discussed. it's a buying opportunity still. >> titanium prices are starting to come down. >> i am, too. >> within this space, there has been major mna and supply demand issues now working if your favor. i am long cemex. i think there is a huge infrastructure globally. >> we do want to note, next wednesday, cnbc's "fast money" will be live at the alpha conference at 35:00 p.m. eastern time. how do they fair? find out next wednesday. one road block after a big run. we break thaun u down that run after this break. stay tuned. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 searching for trade ideas that spark your curiosity tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 can take you in many directions. u down that run after this break. stay tuned. down that run after this break. stay tuned. down that run after this break. stay tuned. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 our live online workshops
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they more than doubled their money. what is interesting is this trade had more than six months in it. so perhaps this trader for cheniere may be slowing down of ending here. >> i was afraid of this name. i liked the whole theory behind it. but this stock is very difficult. >> you got so afraid that you sold? >> i sold it. i mean, i haven't profited so i decided to take the profit more than afraid for a scare. >> mike thanks for that. catch more "options action" tomorrow. check out the website optionsaction.cnbc.com. i thought we were going to get tweets. bring them on. let get to some tweets. if first is for grasso, thoughts on walt disney? >> content play. i'm always a big fan of content t. stock is up 12%ier-to-date t. stock is intact. i think you are safe to be here.
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>> b.k. this is straight forward and open ended. can groupon rise? that's the whole question. >> anything is possible. you know, i don't want to -- >> that's help him b.k. >> in secular stagnation you don't want to be in the stock. the only thing i would not buy groupon, the only thing i would say technically, this stock looks like it's trying to make a bottom. you may get a bunts here. it seems to me to be a name we were talking about that you don't like anything about it. you might want to own it. if are you in it. use like six bucks. >> we have your first tweet tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. .
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with ink plus i can choose how to redeem my points. travel, gift cards, even cash back. and my rewards points won't expire. so you can make owning a business even more rewarding. ink from chase. so you can. . time for the final trade. >> chevron i would stay with these numbers in in update and go with that dividend yield and wave the relative to the other fears. stay long. >> this has nothing to do with the world cup, ewz was up even on a down day. >> my first trade tomorrow is not going to be lands' end.
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it's not in an activist position. you don't need to be there. >> i didn't think anything was sexy about intel. up 20%. >> i think it's sexy. >> there is no room to decline. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks, for watching "options5:. i'm off, see you monday. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or, of course, tweet me @jimcramer. listen up. weakness in
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