official. they made a deal with adidas the as for niker, still up about 1%. back over to you guys. a new coach coming in, very coach coach from the netherlands. >> it will be fun to watch how that plays owl. thank do it for "power lunch." >> "street signs" begins now. it's a rally monday. stocks again at record highs, multibillion dollar deals driving the action. hi, everybody. with one oil deal done, we have a list for you of three more independence oil companies that hung funds absolutely love. the ceo of one of the other deal companies tell us why infrastructure may be the best investling opportunity out there, and though everybody seems to love etfs, the startling stat on just how few actually beat the market. mandy, apparently fear of

portugal's banking scare lasting about as long as their world cup run. >> i have lots of green here behind me. we are off the highs of the day, but nonetheless looking at in new highs during the day, and also the dow transports putting the former i.e. industrials over here on track for the very best months since february. all these deals that brian just mentioned from oil to chocolate, is it a sign of a strong market to you? >> yes, it is, but only one of the reasons i think we're moving today. let me show you what i think is going on. first, there's the s&p 500. i just want to show you this. the gains that we've had today, all of this, all the gains is in the first five minutes of trading. we have essentially been sidewa sideways. people put moan in very early on, and it's been steady as she goes. number one, i think the most important thing is the proliferation of m & a, we saw

the kodiak deal, the mylen deals with abbott, there's even talk about potential truce between israel and hamas, and finally a good start to earnings overall. so i think those are the factors. i don't think it's any one of these that's moving things. i just think all three are a major issue. back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. what do these deals say about the market and how stocks are valued, if anything? let's bring in michael jones. if they ceos are finnelling value in other names, should the everyday investor and our viewer do the same? >> we believe the u.s. market is about fair value, but we need to recognize these deals are going to continue. a lot of companies are sitting on cash, they've been sitting on it for several years. every time the market breaks out the new highs, that looks like a dumber and dumber decision. you also have financing available at raids and on terms that would have been unthinkable

this time last year. again that looks like a dumber decision the more the market goes up. you have activist investors saying if this management team will not tack vang advantages of they opportunities, we'll find someone who will. >> what sectors do you think are ripe for further deals? >> first of all we need to recognize that developed international is about 20% cheaper than the u.s. that creates opportunities. it creates opportunities with the tax advantages of some of the deals that were announced today being kind of like gravy on top of the meal, because you get a company at a discount, plus you get a big break on your tax advantage, so international is one. second has got to be energy. we also think biotech and technology at large are all ripe for takeover. >> i get your point about tax inversions. i'm sure we'll see a lot more for the reasons you injures mentioned, but fundamentally at what point does the government

sit up and take notice and sake we need to change our tax code before we dough more of the tax dollars not coming here? >> that is a really great question. predicting when this congress and this president will be able to come together on logical reform to the tax code, you know, i keep taking the over on that bet and i keep winning. >> so michael, what would then change your views? what would make you think the market was wildly overvalued or undervalued if you think it's fair now? >> we could keep running in the u.s. at the pace we've been running. the 200-day moving average is rising at almost a 20% rate. we know that can't keep going on. >> what is it, 64 straight months of gains? >> exactly. we need to recognize that a lot -- what's been driving that pace has been quantitative easing. quaint at a timive easing is coming to an end. that should slow the rate of assent. i would say that we're do for a

pull back as quantitative easing kind of tapers out of the marketplace, but i would say the pullback will be fairly modest for all the m & a support and the fact that the fundamental growth in the u.s. economy is definitely showing signs of picking up. >> michael joan, great to have you on the show. i believe you're a new face as well, so welcome to "street signs." >> my pleasure. we're keeping an eye on oil, close to breaking below $100 a barrel again. >> what's interesting today, is as we're watching the market move higher, a market rally usually takes crude oil prices higher as well, but actually we're having the opposite. it's continuing to ease what traders are -- are supply concerns, and they're not seeing

that in any of the headlines coming in the middle east, and certainly not out of europe. they are watching. if we do see anything that spooks traders we could see prices stay supported, but not as high as they've been in the past. back to you. >> jackie, thank you very much. we know the kodiak deal was a big deal for investors, but also for john paulson. he owned nearly 10% of kodiak. so we like to do work for you here on "street signs." one thin we did is we found some

of the other independence oil and gas companies operating in the bakken shale, are you ready? get your pens out. does anybody use pens anymore? maybe evernote. either way. oasis petroleum. john paulson, the same guy, citadel, a much smaller stake, qep resources, activist jana partners, d.e. shaw, the huge hedge fund, finally wpx energy, citadel owns nearly 3%, which is 2 1/2% omega advisers, and d.itious shaw. this is the standard, but important disclaimer. this data is coming from quarterly s.e.c. filings, they're out six weeks after the end of the quarter. it's all we got. the numbers might have changed

since the last reporting. they could go up, they could go down. still, however, this is the last data we've got, take it with a grain of salt, but know they have been in those names and don't forget some of them will be at our conference on wednesday. let's bring in brian vili. he covers many of the names we just highlighted. do you think that some of these names may also be takeout candidates? >> yes, i think the takeout candidates that you mentioned, i would say that one of them is a takeout candidate. i would say a few have assets that can be taken out separately, and whatever project have been going on. oasis, the name you mentioned there is as close to a pure play are or is a pure play bakken producer, for me someone looking into the bakken, that's probably the closest way to do it. >> so i would assume that bakken is the one that is likely to be taken out whole, and paulson

being in it probably isn't a bad thing, either. so you think the others could be picked apart? >> no, i think there is being some of the bakken, kind of reached a ma tert. >> and some of the inventory levels. so for companies like wpx or qep, those guys have attractive acreage physicians that could be sought off by folks on the outside looking in right now. >> here's the thing. there isn't a lot more acreage out there. so i guess if you want to grow, you need to buy someone out, but i've got a question for you, brian, what happens if we have continued lower prices? nat gas is already down this month. for example, if we fell further and further lower, does that drive the be 'tis for m & a even more urgently for the same of people getting together for cost savings and efficiencies? >> i think like the overall oil

price is looked at in such a long term that would be interested in these companies, it's probably anything we would look at inside the time to put together a deal might be not be a blip on the ray dare. even for the smaller companies that would be acquired, the lower oil price might put pressure on them that would make them more willing to sell. >> i think it's an important question, you know, when i was up there reporting, i heard break-even numbers about 70 bucks, maybe even higher a barrel. if mandy is right, if we start to go down at price, at what point does it become noneconomic? >> i've heard the $70 a barrel break even. you're struggling to meet kind of corporate internal rates, so the money to be made isn't as large as what we're seeing today. we run a price deck of $92 a barrel. in those ranges right now, these companies, the ones with the

stronger acreage, the core arcage are seeing 40% plus runs, so i think there's plenty of room between where we are now and that threshold where you start to have to worry about and drilling to continue. >> who are the most likely acquirers out there, the buyers? >> that's a good question. i think, you know, somebody like continental would be interested in coring up their acreage, continuing to add to their position. they've already got a position of scale. other folks in the area, eog would be another one that's had fantastic results with a lot of new completion methods they are using, so anybody they would be able to take out with some of the advances they made, they would be able to make them a better operator, i think. >> see continental's harold hamm is a confident man and does not want to see a producer bigger than him. >> that was the headline. >> could they even buy whiting or kodiak? >> it's interesting both

continental and whiting are the two largest producers out of the basin. they're not very large. so folks like stat oil, exxon, other players in the bakken could even come in and take out the current producers. >> a real pleasure. we'll see you again soon, i hope. enjoy new orleans. as you know, loyal viewer, we have pounded literally pounded the table here on the show about the need for infrastructure investment in america. one ceo making a multibillion dollar pet on it. mike burk is here exclusively. >> plus how you might be quite literally allergic to technology. "street signs" is back right after this.

ae com, whose high-profile projects including the new world trade center, announces acsix of rival u.r.s. it will make them the largest publicly traded company in the city and among the meteorology the largest construction firms. congratulations on the deal. thank you for joining us today. a quarter billion in annual cost savings, accrete i have been to your eps. happy with the deal? >> yes, very satisfied. we've long had a strategy to be the premier fully integrated structure firm in the world and this greatly accelerates or

strategy. >> so strategy aside, urs is a big company, bigger than you at the time of the deal. how did you pull this off? >> we've been working at this for quite some time. it we quickly realized the two companies together were much more complementary. >> why? they are asset heavy, you are known as asset light. why is owning more physical assets good for aecom. >> it's the construction side of the business we are interested in. we've been the largest design/engineer company in the world and bringing the building to the strategy, that's what makes the deal so good for us. >> we obvious talk about red tape and how much the government should get out of the way. how much is an regular torrie issues for you?

>> about 60% of our business is outside the united states. the environment outside the united states is better than here. in the united states we have a wide array of government clients, and it varies by geography, but certainly that's our job to help our clients work through those issues and get the assets in place as quickly as possible. >> i guess it is. you don't have to answer that. i'm kidding. it was sort of a tease question. then talk to you about leverage. i don't want to get too wonky on the number. four times ebitda. some analysts say that's a little heavy for an engineer construction firm to handle. soothe their fears. >> we do have four times ebitda leverage, but we have both our company and urs have strong cash flows we expect to pay down our death clouder to two times ebitda.

>> i know brian would love to talk about infrastructure. >> don't get me angry on a monday. >> since you provide service, and of course to governments, it's a big issue, a big problem in this country, getting infrastructure projects done. >> yes. there's no country you can go to that has too much good infrastructure. there's a great demand for our service. >> singapore? >> singapore is a big, bick. >> you can eat off the roads. if i dropped a piece of pizza on the floor of the airport, i would pick it up and eat it. >> but they fine you if you dropped it on the floor for littering. >> you get my point. this country, what's wrong with us? why are we making the investments? congress is locked up. i know you don't want to come on the show hand get political, but we can't figure out how to build the roads or pay for potholes

that could swallow a giraffe. >> it's a great question. we need to bring the private sector into the equation. outside of the country, canada, europe, australia, they have found a way to bring private capital to public infrastructure. we were judd starting down that path, and we of course firmed our own capital fund that is designed to bring capital to project. so the private sector can have a big part in improving the infrastructure of the united states. >> well what we forget in this country, he built the bush before that most roads were privately owned. we forget the private sector did have most of the initial building here. where do you think we've gone wrong since then? >> there's a lot of obstacles to private investment, but the move, the trend has shifting dramatically in that direction t. starting outside the united states, now coming into the united states. the movement is under way.

>> thank you for joining us. you're just happy because he used australia as a positive. >> i kind of set him up for that. i'm not stupid. thanks for the bit about singapore as well. >> i threw that if for you. >> thank you. >> happy monday. time to take the show outside. we are going to be heading outside to one of the world's biggest air shows. plus a story about apple that some if it's true. that's a independent hint. t is . now get the unmistakable thrill... and the incredible rush... of the mercedes-benz you've always wanted. ♪ [ tires screech ] but you better get here fast... [ daughter ] yay, daddy's here! here you go, honey. thank you. [ male announcer ] ...because a good thing like this... phew! [ male announcer ] ...won't last forever. see your authorized dealer for an incredible offer on the exhilarating c250 sport sedan. but hurry, offers end july 31st. share your summer moments in your mercedes-benz with us.

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with enrollment in experian credit tracker. do you have an unexplained rash? no, not that kind of rash, your ipad might be to blame, because it turns out the tablet among many other personal devices may contain nickel. if you're allergic to nickel, you would know it's one of the most common allergy-inducing metals there. it's not life-threatening, but a little uncomfortable, not even clear if all i pads or other apple devices do contain. what did you mean by that? not that kind of rash.

ebay getting a downgrade. >> stock is down 0.6. analysts cutting their price target to 54 from 60 days ago the company faced challenges. now, the price target cut, i hate these kind of calls, but not by much. ebay has had a tough go lately, down 10% the last year. >> dana corporation is also getting a downgrade at goldman sachs to neutral. >> stock's up 0.3. d.a.n. is the ticker. goldman said the downgrade is really a valuation call, given the auto parts company store to latin america. the target 27, still about, what, three bucks above the current price. about 16% gain.

>> stock number three, koufax corp getting an upgail. colfax, they handle fluids. they are a fluid handling company. they're based in maryland. their target on that stock, by the way, $84, about a 15% jump. stock's already had a great run. ticker cfx. >> i love the name of this stock. exelixis. an experimental drug trial, 17%. >> this is good news today, bad news this year, i'll get to the story in a second. a great scrabble world. the drugsh genetically mutated form of melanoma, there's your details. good drug trials. however, still off big this year, down about 34% that chart with bad news back in march and april, we've come back, but only a bit. >> okay.

our under the radar name of the day is n.i.c. inc. >> who builds their web page in don't answer that question. egov is the ticker. and their target it at $23. that's about 30% above the current trading price for egov. that is street talk for monday. meantime, the biggest names in the sky are all gathering in one place today the in england for the annual farn borough air show. >> phil lebeau is there. he jones us now. what are some of the hot stories right now, phil? >> the interesting stories, one existing plane that we haven't seen here. three stories really dominating the headlines here today. the plane that we didn't see that a lot of people are talking

about the lockheed martin f-35. this was supposed to be the public debut. it's been grounded since late june. the department of defense has not cleared it to be flown yet. they're still waiting. lockheed hopes to have it here by the end of the week. a lot of people -- and the industry is still soaring. almost every ceo was very optimistic about the strength of orders continuing, maybe not at the record pace, but a pretty strong pace over the next five, six, seven years. today airbus launched the new a330 neo. 14% more fuel efficient than the current a330. it's the wide body, so it's targeting the dreamliner section of the business, between 250 and 350 seats. the airbus ceo says there's clearly enough demand there to sell at least 1,000 of these new planes. >> we listen to our customers. if we take, studies, i believe

his's right we can sell more than 1,000. these very typical after ten days, two weeks after active marketing, we get the big names of the company -- it will really be a big success for us. >> as you look at shares of airbus, what fabrice was talking about, is steve haase, he is the ceo of air lease corporation, one of the launches customers for the new a330 neo. so the fact that we are seeing so much optimist from boeing, from airbus, a number of other companies. when we talk with their executives. they don't think we're near the end of the peak as far as aircraft orders. >> not a way to spend a bastille day. some solid orders. phil, you've been working literally since last night our time, so thank you.

we do appreciate it. he's bunch drunk earp. >> reporter: it's okay. thanks. a shocking stat that may have you rethinking etfs. herb greenberg will be here to weigh in. and why hotter temperatures are turning out to be a real buzzkill for aussie wine lovers. one included right here.

good day for stocks all around, but a pretty good day for that stock as well. that's citigroup, the stock is up 3% despite a $7 billion settlement with the justice department, though remember about $3 billion of that will be tax exempt and earnings, trading revenue fell, but less than expected. should you play google? credit suisse parent think so, raising the price target to $742 from 735. they think google play will be a

big source of revenue for the company. carter worth on the technicals. carter, how do the charts look? >> i think the issue is this is a stock that's not kept up, as all will know with the market. we know the market encountered a pretty about sell-off, but google took it on the chin. the stock has really not even gotten back to the march high. last two quarters it's missed. what is a big troubling is the huge gap that was left behind the last time it beat, which was back in september. so we think there's a burden here, and we would say no. the -- the other thing, of course, is the relative not only year to date, but going back even further. we would say not something to gamble on. >> understood. what about the fundamental side, david? >> well, we previewed the stock on thursday. we previewed earnings.

we think the stock should be a buy here. confide frankly, this is the -- they're in the pole position in search, and they're seeing some positive trends with paid clicks and the tablet. so look, long-term draggers, google play, we just heard about it, massive up side. wearables, cloud, making investments in fiber. i think that long term the prospects are extremely solid. i think at 580 a share, roughly 18 sometimes our 15 estimates, i think the stock is re attractive. notice know it's had a nice move up, but i think the earnings we're expecting them to be in line. i think that's enough to keep the momentum going. >> david and carter worth, thank you for joining us. we with also check out the online edition with our partner

yahoo finance. he wrote that mutual fund investors have soured on u.s. stocks, with those funds seeing more than $5 billion in outflowing. etf investors being bullish. what does it say about the market? about etfs? herk, what can you contribute? >> i can contribute that it's probably more a reflection of the volatility and people may have gone out of the mutual fund, into cash, but others have found a way to trade. the best way to trade i think -- i think that's what it's really showing. >> what does it tell us about the state of investor psychology? especially, herb, when you factor in the target date mutual funds, barron's had a cover story, a trillion in investing assets, and it appears to me there's a risk that people mike getting too lack date cal with

their investments? >> it depends on who they're talking about, brian. >> the buyers of those investments. >> but remember, the buyer of the target date mutual fund is the average guy who's most likely almost being put into that automatically through his or her 401(k) plan. you have to separate that investor versus the american that's using them as a trading vehicle. i think you have to make sure you distinguish between the two. every investor is so different. when you get to target funds and 401(k)s, you get to something broader, and that's the concept how much can people manage the money, the average guy i'm talking about. many people have, through a variety of vehicles, but it's still tough for the average guy to really do what cramer would say, and that is put in the hours of home work you've really got to do if you want to fully understand what you're buying. >> listen -- >> i literally jumped out of my

seat today. >> i apologize. herb, my point was this, yes, i understand some people get automatically put in. that's exactly my point. i'm quoting you back to you, good man, which is know what you own. you've got etfs out there that will have a name like the homebuilder etf -- and by the way, i'm not picking on that one -- the leading company is bed bath and be yond. i'm just saying -- know what you own. >> you need to know what you own, but look at why people are baying some etfs, they don't care. what they care about is that it trades around a sector or trades -- and by the way. one of the great stats out. there's a cnbc story that 15 of 425 equity etfs, only 15 have delivered alpha, so to speak,, because, you know, the fact is they're indexes. it's hard to outperform an

index. >> it's the lazy man's way of investing. we want to talk timco as well. i think in your original report it got a rare green flag and the ceo was on cnbc earlier today. what was your reaction to what she said nchts vivik i think is out trying to do a media campaign to try to remare his own reputation. what was most interesting is sarah eisen and carl both asked whether it's fallen in line with his ownership of the sacramento kings, in other words he's been distracted. both times he did a great job of dodgeball. he did not answer the question, so i think that's somebody to watch, especially as activists being more active. i would expect more of that going forward this week. >> herb, thank you for joining us. >> sorry to shock you. >> i think i mild just a bit too

much coffee, talking of which. >> which is a nice seg ways. what do coffee, corn and cotton have in common. the illiteration continues as we talk about the commodity combo this month irnts and bring in one of our favorite traders, get some trades, and the aussie wine instrument i industry may not be recognizable as we know it, maybe even less time. we'll explain. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading.

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lots of big mergers this monday. at least one of them driven in part by taxes. abbott labs selling a unit to mylen, creates a new venture based in the netherlands. they'll be joining bill and kelly on "closing bell" later on. we're looking forward to this one, nothing more emblematic that is the schilling of companies leaving this country to lower tax rates. senator ron wyden has come out cautioning against this behavior, yet a couple banner deals. >> are they being unpatriotic by

doing this? or do we just simply look to washington to change the tax codes so that they aren't forced to do this? >> were you listening to "street signs" earlier on today, bill? we were talking exactly about that point. >> see, great minds think alike. >> great minds think alike. we'll ask him about that. all stops at the top of the hour. >> is that heather? >> it is, heather will be with us. >> so the unpatriotic question should be particularly of interest. she's a good pittsburgh girl. do you know who her dad is? >> senator joe manchin of west virginia. >> heather has been on this show, i consider he a friend, i would be really interested to see how she answers that question, guys. >> student. we will see you again. thank you. mandy, listen carefully to the next story. the australian wines that you love and drink by the gallons

could be permanently changing. according to a new stud,. the hot dry region where most of the wine come from could get too hot and too dry. it says three quarters of the land could be unusable by the year 2050, which means wine growers might have to move someplace else, but that famous australian shiraz may never, ever taste the same. in fact, the subject they talked about in the article which i found and sent to you just as a good morning gift, is moving to tars mania, your home state. >> well, my ancestors home state. but 2050, i'm probably not going to be alive by 2050, so i'm not going to stress about this one. >> well, i hope you are. >> if i keep on drinking all that shiraz, i definitely will not be around. july has not been kind to commodities. wheat, cotton, coffee, corn, all down at least 6%. nat gas and wti oil are also

down 5% or more. even precious metals, gold and silver, they're making a bit of a comeback, but they are down so far this month. let's bring in cnbc director jim iuorio. this is an interesting thing. a lot of these different commodities have their own summer/demand stories. why the coincidence, that they're all going down? >> i think it is a coincidence. no one more than me would like to find an overriding theme and blake it on that, but the dollar has relatively stagnant. it's not like we're increasing qe. a couple years ago they all were very correlated. from the virus in pigs, to the cold winter for natural gas, i went out and visited corn fields yesterday, not on purpose. i was drew i have my daughter to a softball game, but they fantastic, better than i've seen in years. it's a story about the rain and the great growing season.

>> what are the trades we can make? what are the bets in terms of where -- which ones go up, which ones go down? >> if i had to pick one thing out of this, remember, the pig virus is a big deal, and lean hogs has not turned around yet. wheat and corn have been clobbered. live cattle was up. it would some of illustrate on fundamental story, but in many ways, i thought it was following hogs. i think cattle might take a turn lower, if it trades 149, that's the trade i would jump on and probably sell. >> so what else looks good to you right now? also as a restaurant owner, by the way, who 'buying beef to eat. >> that's maybe i want beech to go down so i can make an extra quarter. that's maybe what's going on here. >> without the restaurant, i don't like crude. if crude finishes weak here today, i think the next is between 98 1/2 and 97 1/2. nat gas is a fascinating story.

after the cold winter, people are -- they not a normal hot winter would tax those already depleted supplies. that's no what's happened. it's been a mild winter and it's weighed heavily. i think technically the chart looks bad. i would probably be a seller. it settles above 430, but i think nat gas is going lower. >> what do you do with the precious metals? >> just a pounding for gold today, and think about it, too, this is a day where a headline from janet yellen came out that was extremely dovish, and gold is still being clobbered. i'm looking a the 1305 as my level in gold. i do have some small longs on. if it settles, i might be compelled to cover that. then i would have maybe 1270 on my objective, but the biggest three central banks are all extremely accommodative, yet people are selling gold and silver with both hands. it's wild. >> i think actually while jim

was talking about cattle prices, i was also thinking cheaper steak. my barbecue is get cheaper. >> at some point we'll have to do it from the show from brands laptop. free plug. >> the way to our heart, gym is through or stock market acs. we're about to talk to two people who count have less in common. first janet yellen and how it's increase reply concerned about pr. >> and lebron james could tell janet yellen about bad press, but can he booth the economic? we'll dive in. coming up. you do a lot of things great. but parallel parking isn't one of them. you're either too far from the curb. or too close to other cars...

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there's a change going on in the federal reserve, but we're not talking about monetary policy. we're talking public relations. that is right, because since the fed put ben bernanke up front and enter in a push for greater transparency, the fed's pr machine has had to switch gears and evolve with the new, more public, more touchy-feely, communicating federal reserve. joining us now is our very own steve liesman, and from "the economist," u.s. economics editor greg ip. great to have you both with us. is this good? it's a good thing, right, this

communicating? because there's so much communicating now, and it's not just ben bernanke, it's not just janet yellen, it's everybody throwing their two cents in, and i don't know whether it's a good thing because we all end up being a little bit confused. >> i think that's definitely a part of it, a potential downside, but i want to take issue with your intro, the separation between public relations and monetary policy. at least in the minds of the federal reserve, a large part of the public relations is monetary poli policy. when i look at the reasons why the fed has this pr machine and how it works and how it operates, and of course, we're talking about janet yellen giving an interview for a profile in "the new yorker" today, and that followed those two interviews that ben bernanke gave to "60 minutes." the fed, there's academic research that backs up this notion, mandy, that greater transparency leads to better outcomes for policy. that's especially true at zero interest rate policy, it's especially true with qe. the fed has gotten hammered from both the right and the left when it comes to zerp and the qe. third, it's worried about losing

its independence, so it tries to respond and not leave a vacuum of criticism. finally, yellen and bernanke are both trying to emphasize that their policies take into account main street, not just wall street. >> right. >> you know, greg, in any relationship good or bad, you can overcommunicate, right? talking is important, but sometimes, oversharing can be just as bad. do you feel that the fed for a long time, perhaps, has been too transparent? >> i don't feel like they're too transparent, but they and we have got to get used to the idea that if they're committed to talking a lot, as they do now through speeches and statements and press conferences, and they don't actually have much most share with us, they're maximizing the odds that there's going to be a miscommunication somewhere along the line. just to give you an example, i mean, janet yellen's infamous six-month gaffe from a month or so ago, i mean, in the broader scheme of things, it really didn't mean anything, but against a backdrop when nothing else was going on, it took on much larger proportion. i think in the coming months, this is going to be especially sensitive, because you're entering into a world where the fed itself feels much more

uncertain about the economic outlook. they have less conviction about when that first rate hike will be. but they're still going to have to talk a lot. what are they going to say? we're going to overinterpret everything that comes out of their mouths. >> it's a really good point you're making there, greg. it really does compose them to error, because quite frankly on this, you're like brad sullivan, an ad-libbing star. most of us are ad-libbing answers to very difficult questions that can shape the markets and the global economy in some cases. you're probably going to trip up every now and then. >> yeah, but they sort of, like, have gone down this route and i don't think there's much turning back. you can't really start being less transparent, canceling press conferences and taking back statements once you've started down that route. there's another factor which goes to the politics within the fed itself. i have never seen fed presidents be so vocal as they've been in the last couple years about what they want to do with policy. and you know, the fed chairman cannot very well tell them to shut up. so, all he or she can do it talk more loudly, in some sense trying to be the loudest voice in the room and control the message that way. that's why we have the press

conferences. but for those of us trying to interpret the tsunami of information, again, i think it increases the odds of being wrong-footed. >> would you agree with that, quickly? >> i do. there definitely is risk out there, but the question is, the fed also needs to communicate its uncertainty. otherwise, it would be communicating a certainty that is wrong. and so, we need to be a little careful here that when the fed communicates its uncertainty, it's communicating as much as it knows. >> the biggest risk we probably face is that we assume the fed will be right. >> yeah. >> the federal reserve's been wrong many times in their history. >> right. >> yep. >> and brian, if i could just jump in there, make one last point. >> quickly. >> the fed itself doesn't know if it will be right, and what concerns it is the presumption by the markets that they know what they're doing. all the markets know is a straight line and a number. the fed is unable to persuade them that there's a lot more variability around that straight line and number than the market things. that's the problem. >> i feel like this interview's just undermined the fed's credibility and our confidence in that institute and even more. don't forget -- >> no such concern about brian sullivan and mandy drury. they don't know what they're talking about. >> very rarely.

tune in to cnbc tomorrow for janet yellen's pr bid, a testimony before congress at 10:00 a.m. and gentlemen, thank you very much. okay, what does lebron james really mean from a dollars and cents point of view for cleveland? we're going to dig into that story coming up. kind of a big sports story recently. have you heard about this? >> a big deal. >> we're back.

can lebron james's return to cleveland really boost the city's economy? scott cohn is here now with the story.

it's a great story, but does it matter economically to cleveland? >> a little bit. >> a smidge? >> never mind how cruelly lebron james dumped cleveland four years ago when he took his talents to south beach. never mind that cleveland is such a blue city that in 2012 there were 16 precincts where mitt romney didn't get a single vote. lebron is coming home, the gop's coming to town, johnny manziel is playing for the browns. cleveland is back, baby! it may be the most excitement on the shores of lake erie since the rock and roll hall of fame opened 20 years ago, or maybe since local artist jerry siegel and joe schuster dreamed up "superman" in the 1930s. the cuyahoga county executive's office says lebron could add another $100 million out of the cavaliers' local economic impact, but is that enough to turn around a city where 3,300 acres of land sits vacant, where more than 6,000 people, almost 2% of the population, has left in the past three years? probably not, unless lebron isn't the only one coming home. >> i think you're going to be

hard pressed to find too much in the data that would support historically speaking people moving to a city where a sports superstar is. >> lebron may be big, but a small part of the local economy. guys? >> thank you very much. scott cohn. we're going to leave it there, guys. thank you very much for watching "street signs." >> yep. "closing bell" is next. and welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and that would make me bill griffeth also here at the big board. what's the old saying now, you can't keep a good bull down? that appears to be what's happening on wall street right now. >> or never short a dull market. >> that's another good adage we have around here. last week we were talking about maybe the beginning of the long-awaited correction, but now we are roaring higher today. and don't look now, but we are right sitting on the cusp of a new closing all-time high.