tv Fast Money CNBC July 25, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
5:00 pm
you're right that this is what this country stands for. we're talking about children, not convicts. therefore, i applaud her. >> thank you, mayor, and my thanks to the panel. we'll hand it over to "fast money" with melissa lee and the gang. have a great weekend. it is "fast money" friday. i'm melissa lee. stocks getting stunned today. first, visa earnings getting stunned. and the broader market saw a lot of red, it was a move at amazon that took center stage. no longer getting a free pass from wall street.
5:01 pm
>> the environment right now is, everybody is looking for growth. i don't know necessarily out side of revenue, and they're going the revenue, but you look at profits, they're not just there. margins are just too tight. >> ironically, pete lost that but one vote. but in the market, you were right today. >> i appreciate that. but this has been the story for a long time with amazon. this is finally starting to catch up with them. and it's not just this quarter. people looking at the spending going on, and potentially some of the losses that could come next quarter. i think people are getting more and more concerned. but i'm not necessarily saying the stock is done. this is a one-day reaction.
5:02 pm
>> this is a company that people are tired of doing that to them. between 4% and 11% guidance. they didn't do it. and things are down. a lot of things people are looking at, and the tradeoff between growth and profit margins is not worth it. this is 200, 300, 400 times earnings next we're. >> and amazon web services, their big area of growth, that showed big deceleration. >> this is getting a little far-fetched. >> the tell lehere, this is the only s&p 500 company that has
5:03 pm
grown revenues over 20% a year consistently. the tell was, they slipped down to 18% or 19%. to be a little constructive, i think it can be bought safely around $280. it's bottomed there twice. this is a $32 stock going to $28. >> i'm not sure this is a one-day event, though. the whole point with amazon, if you don't believe the story anymore, there's no reason to own the stock at these valuations. if it breaks $280, watch out below. this stock is done. >> if it breaks $280, is it
5:04 pm
going to rebound -- >> no. >> so, you're buying another kind of stock. >> their top line continues to grow, the 18% to 20%. it gets to a place, people start to wonder, and this is not unique to amazon. we're starting to see growth stocks run out of mojo. amazon has been the laggard in this space. we'll talk about chicken and restaurant stocks. people paying ridiculous multipl multiples, it's not where we think it's going to be. >> there's a very game of thrones-esque thing going on. they have to do strategic things now, but if they lose, it's off
5:05 pm
with your head. we laugh at companies that fail to invest and come up with technology. >> mr. bear at amazon, are you playing $280? >> no. growth stocks have to continue to show growth, or it starts to hit them. lu lu lemon, we're willing to give them a pass. but when you stop growing, that becomes a major issue. >> later on in the show, we'll test this regarding amazon. this is the new amazon fire phone. >> does it work? >> we will find out. that's a little later on. now, on to the broader markets here. a slow earnings report, and
5:06 pm
russia and e.u. ambassadors reaching a agreement -- the central bank in russia unexpectedly hiked rates. >> they have to do it. it's probably smart. people in washington say there's probably something coming from the u.s. next week. and clearly, last week was an escalation environment. europe didn't do enough, and i would be surprised if washington doesn't next week. >> well, the problem for me, brent oil. and palladium. russia is the largest platinum pro producer in the world.
5:07 pm
i think there are more sanctions coming. the tragedy of mh-17 was a watershed event. >> well, this is an administration with absolutely no follow-through on anything. i think the stocks or viable. quite frankly, if you got into the adrs before whatever underwhelming, gutless sanctions are released -- >> well, if they go after the entire financial sector, it's a big, big deal for the banks. and i think this is a big opportunity for the administration. this is a place for them to score some points back. and they need to do it here. >> but you do it to the russian banks, where they pull it out of
5:08 pm
that system. i agree with you and b.k. that would be devastating. >> you're targeting just russia. you look at the market, look for the stocks being sold off unj t unjustly, like the airline stocks. when they sell off, that's the opportunity. far better upside opportunity. >> and visa, it's 8.4% of the dow's waiting. that's double the impact of chevron and disney combined. >> and is there still more room, down 4% since the beginning of
5:09 pm
july? >> absolutely. this is a place, to me, you have both valuation risk, no reason to be taking it while it's cheap. >> and unless we hit some unushl activity, some in cosmetics. >> estee lauder. look at what they've done the last couple of quarters. earnings, revenue is strong. they're clicking, august, 80 calls today. 2,400 traded. not huge numbers, but double the norm. probably looking forward to the earnings that are coming out in august. looking to break through the 52-week highs. i tried to get into this name,
5:10 pm
5:12 pm
5:13 pm
5:14 pm
75%. so, will el pollo loco keep going, or go the way of castlight? >> pollo loco, brother. >> i say, cluck, cluck. it's all about the chicken. at the end of the day, the consumer loves this company. let me start over. >> good. >> melissa, let me explain to you why it went up 55% today. they're growing faster than chipotle. in 2014, they grew faster than chipotle. so, this is a cheaper stock, a new story they can get involved in on the ground floor. i like the food, i endorsed it earlier today. and the first quarter, maybe
5:15 pm
they don't do a good job commune ta kating with the street. there could be an opportunity there. >> should these companies be trading at 40% to 45%? >> well, if they can grow earnings with a rate commensurate to it, chipotle -- >> they come out, all of a sudden, they're expanding all over the place. >> cal yen tai out of the gate. >> well, this is a reason why you can't compare them to mcdonald's. this is fast casual. you get a better ticket price.
5:16 pm
and 1,900 stores, talking about growth, going to houston in the fall, they're only at 400 now. >> tesla, reporting earnings. elon musk spoke with stephen colbert. >> we want the car to be your friend. in the next version, you're going to be able to name your car, like it's a pet. >> what would you name your car? >> i have named my car. i named it old faithful. >> news flash, you can name anything you want, any time you want. >> what is your car's name? >> the one i drive is duke. >> let's get the trade.
5:17 pm
you have been in tes la. >> i was in tes la in my ill-fated -- it has more to do with the market than tes la. in the long run, it's a great name to hold. but you can get it around 200 dl >> you can see, they can't keep up with the demands. but there are some competitors coming into the space. the chevy volt, it's not a competitor. bmw with a direct competitor, and they will affect that a lot. >> musk also spoke about what is
5:18 pm
in the pipeline. >> charging cables, i hate them. just walk into my house and they would charge. or i would have a subscription service, that would charge everything around me. >> the netflix of charging. he said he's not working on a jet pack. josh brown. >> that's good news. back to the charging thing. i don't understand why apple has $147 million, and i still wake up in the morning worrying about why my things are being charged? why am i still plugging things into the wall like a caveman? >> you're such a troglodyte.
5:19 pm
>> talking about the competition, this is all about production. we know it's great technology. but it's been stuck between $200 and $240 for six months. the multiples do matter. they're doing a great job. but to say they're not running into a lot of head winds technically, you're crazy if you think the stock is doubling. coming up, we'll take a look at amazon's new fire phone. let's build a new, smarter bed using the dualair chambers to sense your movement, heartbeat, breathing. introducing the sleep number bed with sleepiqtm technology. it tracks your sleep and tells you how to adjust for a good, better and an awesome night.
5:20 pm
5:22 pm
5:23 pm
guidance. >> callaway golf. >> it got clubbed. i would not tee this one up and buy it. >> deckers outdoor. >> we talk about growth, they have it domestically and internationally. >> and amazon has been spending more than it's earning, and investors are getting annoyed with it. lance brought a fire phone here to us. and it's crucial to understanding the role of the fire phone, it's role in commerce. does that facilitate that? >> well, amazon is all about
5:24 pm
finding stuff and buying it on amaz amazon. we aim it here, and if we're lucky, it will identify it. come on, fire flies. this may not work. if not, we'll try something else. >> you're walking down the street -- >> a bag of doritos will work. he put it there, and in three seconds, it identified it. if i click on top of it, guess what the first thing is? i can buy it. shop amazon for doritos. >> wow. >> so, this has always been the deal for amazon. get things in people's hands at
5:25 pm
cost so they will buy things through amazon. >> and this is a hot one. >> this is. there we go. we're in. we're in. it's already, oops, sorry, we have to go back. >> that's a handsome son of a gun. >> it found it immediately. there it is. and of course, the way they're doing this, image matching. but you can identify business cards, numbers, it pulls it right in. this phone is all about a unique experience with the consumer. trying to delight them with things you don't find in other phones. so, in addition to the fire fly, when i'm looking at the phone, it has four infrared cameras
5:26 pm
that see me. so, it changes, this is called dynamic perspective. if i look away, it doesn't actually work. >> so, the bottom line question, would you buy one, lance? >> that's a really good question. it's an excellent v-1 device. if you are in the amazon eco system, yes. one problem. at&t only. that's the only thing that bothers me. sorry, verizon. >> thank you, lance. let's go around the horn. the final trade. >> amx, stay in the name. >> i like vwo. >> and dow chemical. >> see you monday at 5:00 p.m. meantime, "options action" is after the break. are you sure we should take this billboard down?
5:27 pm
people find out state farm does car loans as well as they do insurance, our bank is through. good point. grab an edge. look there's two guys on the state farm borrow better banking sign. nope for real there's two dudes on the state farm borrow better banking sign. [ reporter ] breaking news from the state farm borrow better banking sign... we're seeing two men that have climbed the borrow better banking sign gentlemen please get down from the state farm borrow better banking sign. phil get the hose. okay he's getting the hose. alright, let's go. [ male announcer ] talk to a state farm agent about car loans that can save you hundreds. that's borrowing better.
5:28 pm
5:30 pm
♪ this is "options action." tonight -- energy stocks have been the hottest trade all year. but some traders see big losses. plus, an industrial-sized problem. actually, the problem is that industrial stocks are lagging the market. we'll they will you why that would derail the rally. and a surprise options trader makes her triumphant return to television.
5:31 pm
the action begins right now. >> i'm melissa lee. we have carter, mike and look who is here. a familiar face to very faith "options action" fans. stacey is back, great to have you. let's get to the market, because earnings have been good, bad, and ugly. here's big question. can the market add a few dollars more? if there's one pattern to earnings, is there one? >> well, we're seeing, you really immediate to pay close attention to the individual stories. a company like g.m., a lot of company-specific things going on this. chipotle, a high-growth stock that ends up deserving a high
5:32 pm
multiple. and the market was down today, but most of the s&p 500 stocks were up. the market is not necessarily your portfolio. >> and we saw a bunch of tech names that took tumbles, but the s&p technology index, pretty much at a 14-year high. >> well, the s&p was lots of highs, but now it's market specific. here we are now, it actually matters what companies are
5:33 pm
saying. to mike's point, amazon, pandora is down. it's company-specific. the correlations of stocks, they don't make sense anymore. >> it's a stock picker's market. >> it's diversifdiversified. most people own a basket of stocks. you need to find out what's going on with each of them. >> carter? >> well, we need to put it in context. the average growth is about 6.5%, so not bad. but we're seeing some price action that's not as good as one might hope. two screens here, the five worst
5:34 pm
reactions to earns. some of them were beats. but it's not about whether you beat or miss. it's how people react to the number. the takeaway, tech, tech, tech. microso microsoft, apple, doing well. and stocks that have acted well, there is no theme. intuitive surgical, nothing to do with burritos or biotech. the losers, very much a cyclical tech story, as least at the worst end of the reaction. >> and stacey, i'm curious, if you own some of these stocks, using the index as a hedge, does
5:35 pm
that work in a stock picker's market? >> well, the correlation, how the stocks are moving together. it's at a decades low. you want a put on the s&p 500. it's not moving. that's why the individual stories are so important. >> and mike, you're looking at consumer discretionary names. >> well, whole foods is a grocery store. not a staple like kroger. this is an interesting story. earnings coming up, they disappointed in the last quarter and now, their margins are about
5:36 pm
4%. compared to the big groecers, it's huge. their margins are getting compress compressed. all the other stores are beginning to bring organic products in. i think the bad news for this thing is probably going to continue. and i'm inclined to make a bearish bet and take advantage of the fact that the options market sees so much uncertainty. i'm looking at the august-january spread. 80 cent is what they're commanding. if it drifts down to 5.5% below
5:37 pm
where the stock is today, it will be a winner. >> and with whole foods, mike is not optimistic. what do you think, stacey? >> well, implying about an 8% move. it's moved more than that. you're getting the earnings for free. the options aren't even suggesting it could move like that. you both have an opinion on the desk. >> some sharp moves in the last quarter, some people suspect that the bad news has been baked into the stock price. i think it will move a decent bit, but not as much as last quarter. >> and industrials, they continue to be one of the
5:38 pm
market's worst performing areas. what's interesting is that options traders think it will get even worse. in one of the biggest options trades, something bought 10,000 september 15th puts for 20 cents apiece. an 8% decline in just two months. in other words, they expect it to lose everything it gained and then some. carter, what do you think? >> well, the worst performer of the week. and looks like it's going to get worse. let's look backwards from long term to short-term. industrials have been an outperformer relative to the
5:39 pm
market long term. in this bull market, a fairly substantial performance. but in the here and now, it's starting to falter. and the yellow line is starting to diverge from the white line. massive name, a well-defined trend, and a breaking trend. general electric, broke trend just this week. boeing, same story. and so, precision cast parts, $40 million, broke trend. so, it's going to break this
5:40 pm
remarkably reliable trend. looking for a 10% decline for industrials. and the tell, back to the beginning, is the current divergence with the market will continue. >> and we were saying you have to be careful. but the xli, as a group, is going to move. why? >> well, the xli is the one exception. it has one of the higher correlations of all the sectors out there. if you want to hedge with this one, you're buying the correlations and the movements. owning an option on an etf, you're getting that movement. >> and the industrials, their secular shifts are going to be on the broader issues.
5:41 pm
caterpillar and deere, they're going to move together. it's going to be the broader factors that are going to push them around. >> stacey, talk about xlis. >> if someone said give me something that doesn't move around, it's attractive. over the past decade, you're buying a basket of stocks together that are going to move together. what is the option i'm looking at here? the august 43 puts. when i looked at xli, today, it was trading at 37 cents. where is the break-even? if the xli goes down, a 10%
5:42 pm
rollover, i need a 2.1% decline from the price today, then i'm winning dollar for dollar. i'm worried about timing, though. >> i don't think you need to be concerned. how much the stock is going to move around, that's going to be impacted by the increase in leverage. i like this trade. >> you can tweet us, and hit up our website. we've got the hottest options news on the web. here's what's coming up next. ♪ >> that's what twitter is hoping
5:43 pm
to do, reintroduce itself. and why are so many options traders betting against energy? we'll answer that, when "options action" returns. . change in after-market trading. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade.
5:45 pm
when the world moves, with the mobile trader app. futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with paper money to test-drive the market. all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ ♪ money. that's what many traders are hoping to make this coming week. more than 100 s&p companies are having reports. what does the options market say
5:46 pm
about the results? >> a relatively quiet simmer friday, energy stocks have been pretty bullish. but exxonmobil, hess, and cheniere. 400% more. options markets aren't expecting a big move. only about 2%. you can buy some cheap protection. the stock may go down. hess, once again, look at this. it has been going up at a 45-degree angle. implied move, 43%. that's what's going to cost you. and cheniere energy.
5:47 pm
the rock star. it's basically gone up, as you can see, in an epic fashion. only expecting a 4% move, but the traders are betting it's going to be a little bit lower. >> i love when one of the traders goes up to the board when carter is here so we can get his take. >> well, hess is extended. here's the thing about the sector. it's about 11% of the s&p. three names roughly half of the entire sector. hess, at $34 billion, and exxon, $450 million. the marquee names look okay. >> stacey? >> well, we're looking at the
5:48 pm
energy etf here. the stocks aren't moving together within the energy space. i have an opinion on the individual names. if you don't like hess, trade accordingly. it's harder to trade the etf options. but we continue to see bearish moves. >> carter? >> well, we made a bullish bet on exxon. but what the options trader sentiment is on balance. they were generally bullish on the stocks, now the tide is turning. will the options traders follow? if they do -- >> well, we'll discuss twitter when "options action" returns. ♪
5:49 pm
5:50 pm
5:51 pm
or we can select a time for them to call us back. the future, right? ♪ this doesn't do it for you? [ doorbell rings, dog barks ] oh, that's what blows your mind -- the advanced technology of a doorbell.. [ male announcer ] tweet an expert and schedule a callback from any device. introducing the xfinity my account app. [b♪ll rings] time and sales data. split-second stats. ♪ its so close to the options floor, you'll bust your brain-box. all on thinkorswim, from td ameritrade. ♪
5:52 pm
♪ can we call it a twitter turnaround? they're up 22% this month. >> on "options action," it's the reason we're twitter all-stars, we always risk less to make more. and dan did that with his bullish bet on twitter. >> this stock could start stipisti skipping up. >> he bought the $1.45 call. he needs shares to rise above $37 more than the cost of the call. but spending $145 to get in on
5:53 pm
twitter, who are you, the joker? >> i'm only burning my half. >> he sold the september 26 put for $1.45 and created his risk reversal. between the $1.45 he spent and the $1.45 created by selling the put, he's now in there for free. so, if twitter shares go up by one penny, he sees profits. but there's a tradeoff. because he sold that put, he could now be obligated to buy the stock for $26 per share. even if it falls below this
5:54 pm
level. but it's up more than 20%. making dan a big winner. now, everyone wants to know, what will dan do now? >> before we answer that, let's show you why options worked so well for dan here. he would have been up by 25% buying it. but now, he's on vacation, but he's taking the time away to drop us a line. so, dan, twitter reports next week. what do you do ahead of this? >> i'm in lake george, new york. no tikis here. stacey, welcome back. great to see you at the desk. i love your trade. i like that play.
5:55 pm
on twitter, the options market implies an 11% move. it's already moved 25%. sentiment was poor and implied volatility was high. it created an upside to the slightest bit of good news. so, you need to cover that low delta put. it makes no sense to ride the last 15 cents of that out. i think, given some of the recent management shakeup, i think this could be a kitchen sink quarter to reset for the new management. i'm less confident at $38 than
5:56 pm
$30. but the $37 call in september, i think you have to sell a higher strike put to lock in some pr t profits. i think the $37 high is good. >> thanks, dan. enjoy the luau. mike? >> well, i would be inclined to take the money and run on this myself. coming up next, the final call from the options pits. five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-market trading. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are
5:57 pm
5:58 pm
the mobile trader app. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. because it gives me zero heartburn... annc: prilosec otc the number one doctor recommend frequent heartburn medicine for nine straight years. one pill each morning 24 hours zero heartburn. ♪ "first day of my life" by bright eyes ♪ you're not just looking for a house.
5:59 pm
you're looking for a place for your life to happen. when the world moves, futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with paper money to test-drive the market. all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. time for the final call. carter? >> if you yourself have an industrial stock, take measures before someone does it for you. >> stacey? >> i do like the xli august 53
6:00 pm
put purchase. >> i love that we're in a stock picker's market. >> it has been great to have you back, stacey. looks my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money kwoe "starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends and my job so to educate, earn thain, teach, call me. 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. maybe it was the sorrowful amon
112 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on