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it is deals versus politics in the mind of the market today. hi, everybody. two big deals today on this monday. details ahead on both. and why walmart and real estate agents must watch both very closely and outside of the deals, the single most important thing to watch in this busy week and is pandora stuck in a box? >> let's get to the deals here. the markets are fairly quiet. we did have two big multibillion dollar deals moving the market this monday. dollar tree says it plans to buy rival family dollar for $8.5 billion. more on that in just a second. zillow is offering $3.5 billion in stock for trulia. >> so could that deal, the one zillow/trulia deal, change the way you shop for a home and might the biggest real estate firm in america have something

to say about this? joining us now, tim and bradley. should real estate agents be nervous about the deal because combined company will have a lot of influence over how people shop for a home. >> i don't think realtors should be that concerned. the challenge really comes from other associations. realtors are independent contractors. they just want to win more customers. if zillow wants to spend its money advertising and realtors can get more targeted prequalified buyers, they are perfectly happy. you won't see a lot of pushback from realtors at all. >> you look at the combined companies. some say will ftc have something to say about this because they'll have 90% of share in terms of online searches. how does this combined company compare to the mls, the real estate industry uses it that citizen has no access to. what does it do to that if anything?

>> i think mls is run like regionally. it's interesting. it's all stitched together through the national association of realtors but ultimately they are all independent. the challenge for those companies is 80/20 rule is in full effect in real estate. 80% of the sales goes to 20% of the producers. 100% of them pay dues to nar and multiple listing services. there's something about the business model that will promote high producers at the detriment of low end producers and those guys are already dancing on the needle of a pin. some producers two or three properties a year doesn't take much to kick them out and you'll lose potentially 80% of your volume or 80% of your revenue. >> we're all consumers here and we all wonder if the days of the 6% broker commission may be coming to a close. will that be compressed because these two gained more leverage? >> at this stage there's no evidence to suggest that there's

been any really in the overall residential real estate landscape as far as commissions go. we recently did a survey of 400 agents. commission splits are flat. gross commission levels are flat. that's even though trulia is at 50 million unique users and zillow is at 80 million unique users. people look at it as we have a bearish view on the deal and companies but people say look at the potential of these companies but they already have vast consumer traffic but very little has changed in terms of their lead quality, lead volume or even the underpinnings of how residential real estate industry works because at the end of the day 80% to 98% of residential real estates are chosen based on referrals. >> are you saying that this is sort of an ancillary service. it's not a replacement for what has traditionally been the model for buying real estate? it hasn't changed the game

effectively? >> it has not at this point. the broad question everyone in the residential industry is asking is will the national association of realtors react? there's a lot of support based on our own research to change the manner in which listings are syndicated by syndicating a smaller packet of information or eliminating indication process tall together which some brokerage firms have already done. this transaction will accelerate those decisions because at the end of the day, the value proposition of a brokerage firm is we provide marketing technology to agents. if relationship with consumers is being altered, they have to think about how they empower those companies. >> the biggest real estate firm in america is slightly up today. obviously the market is not saying they'll get whacked on this deal. put real estate agents' minds at ease. the real estate industry held up pricing structure better than

stock broking and anything out there. will it continue to do so even after this deal? >> i would love to tell you yes but i think it's at risk. put it into context. the zillow/trulia deal is capturing $28 billion of marketing spin from realtors that doesn't touch transaction fees. you see new entrants like auction.com that got investment from google. you can't build a wall high enough to protect that old legacy business model. there's value in having local expertise but a big challenge and assault against that transaction fee long-term. >> tim and brad, a great discussion. thank you very much. >> move.com, a distant third to these two guys is up 8.25%. interesting to see the stock moves here. let's get to the other big deal of the day. dollar tree buying family dollar for $8.5 billion. let's get your thoughts on this,

jan. what does this mean? these have been troubled business models facing razor thin margins. now what? >> the biggest retail deal in some time. these are razor thin margins that businesses because walmart is a big player in this business. dollar tree buying family dollar is probably a good thing. dollar general buying family dollar would have been great thing. dollar general and family dollar are the same businesses. dollar tree and family dollar are not the same businesses. it's more affluent customer. the mix in the stores is different. as a retailer, i see these as two different companies occupying some of the same space but not like dollar general and family dollar. >> is the inventory overlap? do they get cost savings by pressing on the supply chain? >> from just walking the stores, it can't be more than 50%.

yes, there's some overlap but i don't see the big synergy. when i thought dollar general was going to buy family dollar, i thought savings would be $500 million but with these guys they announce 300. maybe they are low balling us. >> one point. the point is you might get your wish, jan, because family dollar is at 75, 73, the deal 7450. the market says a higher bid will come in from dollar tree or another bidder could step in. something to watch. on "squawk box" this morning, you sent me an e-mail and called up on the program, i thought this would automatically be negative for walmart because combined company will have 13,000 stores. walmart 11,000. i get walmart is reading. reading analyst note, they say it would be good for walmart because it would cut down on the space that would grow out reducing competition for walmart long-term. >> i think it's better for walmart than if dollar general had made this transaction.

i also think that given the size of these businesses, let's pretend that walmart got 50% of their market share. it wouldn't change the game for walmart. it would change the game for these guys. so this is not a big deal for walmart either way. this is probably a little better than if dollar general bought them. it would be better if family dollar had just gone away. it wasn't going to. i don't think it's a big deal one way or the other for walmart. they focused on this business. they'll open small stores and put smaller packaging in their big stores. they're going to get some business from these players and they're going to push it really hard. this isn't a game changer for walmart either way at all. >> so does anything happen with big lots? that's when they outperform within this group on a stock performance. >> there are people that could be affected by this. i don't see the intersection there that anything really happens. >> you don't think it will set off a wave. the question, what is the name of this company going to be? family tree? >> they are keeping both names.

there's no change. >> you don't eliminate the grands. >> i got that. sometimes i choose not to laugh at you, brian, for a reason. >> you and america. >> they are keeping two brands. >> interesting if someone steps in. carl icahn is happy tweeting out great day for icahn associate stockholders. he made another 100 million. >> all in a day's work. thanks for coming by. two deals down. it's still going to be a huge week on tap. you got the fed. you got friday jobs number. you got a couple hundred other earnings reports yet to come. what might be the most important thing for you and your money? we'll dig into that coming up. >> we'll hear from one analyst who says pandora will soon be a penny stock. we'll press him on that bold call when "street signs" returns.

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a huge week on tap. let's bring in steve liesman. what's the biggest thing in your view we should be watching for? >> little doubt the fed gets easier from here. that's put you where the risk is. judge the market risk as the fed gets tighter faster than markets expect. that can come from inflation data and jobs data. let's go to where data is this week.

adp on wednesday. skipping over stuff on tuesday. second quarter, gdp, 2.9 is average. wife seen estimates in 3.5 to 4% range. look at prices for what's happening in inflation. friday jobs report. the all important jobs report. unemployment rate 6% is the forecast. the prices data and wage data is where inflation risk is. the fed is going to be forced to play catchup some think. >> any measure using fed zone forecast for growth and inflation for unemployment and inflation, they're behind the curve even as we speak. so even though we're looking forward to a taper and we think that's moving in the right direction, certain policy rules like john taylor has created really suggests the fed should have been going a while ago. >> the fed will not move sooner but will have to move faster when it starts hiking. only a slight tweak expected on

wednesday to take note of the improving jobs market. likely to be serious behind the scenes discussions from some hawks and even some in the center who want to speed up the pace of tapering and/or move up the timetable for hiking interest rates. the shoot for the fed is one that an investor have both highlighted. can policy remain so far away from normal while the economy seems to be approaching more normal. >> before you get anything else, your ring tone. i'm trying to think what that would be from name your tune. >> that was one beep. one stone. >> who was that? >> it was jerry garcia band. >> of course. >> off classic live album? >> it's "how sweet it is." >> fantastic. save mother earth best song by those two ever. that said, let's talk about this friday's jobs number. >> let's. >> it's been a long day, okay. >> he started this morning at

3:30. >> 3:00. >> i know that feeling. somewhere between getti inting redeye plane and drinking the night before. >> friday the jobs number that has lost luster in a way. people say the margin of error is 100,000. we started to see people pull away from importance of the jobs number except for the trend. is that a fair statement? >> i wish that would happen. it's been my desire in 15 years of reporting economic data for people to look more at the trend than the number that comes out. i don't think that's true. i think you're talking to some optimistic people who think that that's the way the world should work and it's the way it is working. i don't think so. i think this number comes in where it comes in and people throw out this notion of the 95% confidence level plus or minus 100,000. i look at three-month averages and six-month averages and things that move around and not

change your view in one fell swoop. you look at the jobless claims approaching that 300,000 range. don't just take one number. that would be a great development in our market but i'm afraid you got these guys out there with itchy fingers and by the way, it's not guys. it's trading within the number moving. i'm afraid we're moving farther from that. >> well said. my problems got problems. another great song. >> thanks, steve. >> let us bring in jack and matt. all of the music references aside, your take as an investor on the most important thing either this week or in the next couple of weeks? >> well, notwithstanding the fact that it's the jobs report.

i am going to watch the fed meeting. i do want to see if there is a consistent view and perhaps continuing to try to drag their feet. i do think it's the jobs numbers. we've been continually able to print more than 200,000 jobs a month. i will also note that roughly half -- between a third and half of the jobs created are companies of 50 employees or fewer if you look at the adp report. and so i am concerned that while treasury and president are focused on these corporate tax inversions and the megacompanies and trying to scold them, who is really getting hurt by corporate tax are the smaller companies and they are critical element of our job growth. i want to continue to watch that and make sure that golden goose keeps laying those eggs. >> you're watching gdp. >> i'm looking at gdp. earnings will set the tone. i think gdp is going to give more flavor.

the jobs number like jack said is going to be crucial. i think gdp is going to give you an indication of where jobs will go. i think if you don't see a 2.9% print or higher, i think a lot of the economic bulls are going to sputter in disbelief. there's a narrative out there that the economy is great. i think it's just okay. i think people are enamored with warmth and blaming everything on weather and i don't think that equates just economic growth. earnings are okay. i think really if people -- if the numbers come in on gdp lower than expected, it will people pause for concern and the jobs number will be lighter and on top of it as jack pointed out, most of the job growth is in part-time jobs which is not really a sign of a strong and growing economy. >> both of you are cautious about the economy overall although you are looking at different data points this week as the number one to watch. is the risk at this point for equity investors to the upside to not be in the market and see that upside or do you think we'll see a pause here at this point? >> i wouldn't be surprised if we

saw a pause. i think the fact is that you're right, notwithstanding earnings reports, the fact is that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself a little bit. it's being fueled by this policy around the federal reserve. that will likely continue. as liesman mentioned earlier, there's only one direction there and that would either be let it off or leave it on and we'll have to see. they're not going to accelerate it any means. i think there's a risk of a pullback particularly in the small caps where they are most expensive. >> there was commentary to this effect over the weekend that the first rate hike we get, middle of next year maybe -- >> later. >> whenever it is -- it will happen. the fed will rates at some point. will that destroy the equity market? there was dialogue that david rosenberg said, no, the market with withstand the first rate

hike with no problem. >> i think that given the fact that inflation is running at -- pick your poison. 1.5% to 2% and overnight interest rates are 0.25, that suggests there's a little wiggle room to raise those rates and not upset the apple cart too much. the only measure that i can come up with that makes stocks look cheap is through bonds. i do think the bond market could probably across the yield curve rise by nearly one full percentage point without really upsetting the equity apple cart. >> all right. thanks, guys. appreciate it. coming up next, not three but four big earnings names you got to watch before they report. a bonus round of earnings squad is on deck. >> we may have found just what the doctor ordered for your portfolio. looking at stocks coming up.

time for earnings squad joining us today bertha coombs and stephanie link. brian will handle trw and i'll take on wynn. 46% of the s&p reported. 69% beat their estimates. 20% of earnings came in below forecast. let's get to bertha. this one reports before the bell tomorrow. >> we're expecting aetna to come in at about $1.59 a share. last quarter they had a huge beat. one thing that everyone focuses on obviously is their obamacare exchange numbers. they didn't report all of them because they hadn't gotten them yet. a lot of people signed up late. commercial numbers are very important for aetna because that's the bulk of their business right now. as we see jobs numbers improve and they get more wins, that's some place where they will have

earnings. their government numbers, their acquisition in the medicaid space is something that is supposed to pay off this year and add about 50 cents a share to earnings. watch their medicaid enrollment numbers as well. medicaid enrollment has been strong. >> united did well. it will be utilization trends that are important and for aetna also their strategy. they said last quarter they'll get aggressive this year. >> they're looking at that. united was very good at being able to handle the hepatitis c costs because on the commercial plans you can limit more than you can on the government plans. well care blew up last week because of a problem with the new medication plans and new medication folks in florida. they are more legacy numbers for aetna. they should be able to manage that better. >> let's get to steph's name,

u.p.s. >> e-commerce grows 17% again. that's been a gem of the story. costs come down because they don't have those weather issues like they did last quarter. issue is revenue per package. have people structurally changed the way they are sending packages internationally and across the country. >> they changed their pricing to size of the package rather than weight. >> are they doing overnight or next day or three day. what are they doing? >> are people going cheaper. >> that's going to affect the profitability. >> is prime a concern for you? the role of amazon prime and ability to order a thumbtack and have that shipped in a single box to us? >> that's carbon friendly right there. we'll order tick tacks and have them delivered in a box. >> sometimes you order something just because -- >> they have to be booming.

recycling on my street with boxes everywhere all the time constantly. >> waste management. >> all right. trw. >> rhetorical question. >> trw. keep in mind before i give you guys numbers and what to watch for. this company has been widely reported as a takeover candidate by the german company zf. put that in reference of it could be taken over. that said, 2.12 a share is expected. 5% growth. many have been struggling under debt load of this company. stock is up 40% this year. there may be takeover premium in there. watch that name. one thing that morning star does like is safety in cars evolving so much that new markets may be created. trw automotive. >> and with recalls we've been seeing. >> and quickly, the 11 analysts that cover the stock, target is

8 bucks above or below where the stock is now. wall street either has to ratchet up their target price or trw is overvalued. >> i want to hear what's pricing and what's the mix and what's in that backlog they feel confident to build new facilities. that's a big question. >> i'll go over wynn here. there was a note out saying the last week of july has shown an uptick in some of the vip gaining traffic which would be a good thing for wynn and other players in the space. also morgan stanley points out that pe highly correlated to the growth in vip ratio. the whales matter big time when it comes to gaming and that will be a key determent in terms of wynn. >> if they beat, what will they do for an encore? >> could you stop with the bad jokes? >> with you don't get to vegas

much? >> no. >> there's a wynn casino and next to it is the encore. >> it's such a bad -- thank you. >> winning. >> can you just keep moving. >> four big upgrades to tell you about coming up. >> we'll tell you about something that's happened in the food industry that has not happened since harry s. truman was president. "street signs" will be right back. in new york state, we're changing the way we do business, with startup ny. we've created tax free zones throughout the state. and startup ny companies will be investing hundreds of millions of dollars in jobs and infrastructure. thanks to startup ny, businesses can operate tax free for 10 years. no property tax. no business tax. and no sales tax.

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comcast business. built for business. shares of pandora, where is it headed next? a good old fashioned debate coming up. one guest is a $31 price target and others say it will be a penny stock. they'll make their cases and you can decide. >> one guy is wheeling in a filing cabinet. >> let's kick off with reynolds american moved to top pick. >> rbc said their deal would likely close on time. the stock could move toward 80 a

share. stock up 13% in the last 12 months. >> look at zimmer holdings upgraded at oppenheimeoppenheim. >> stocks down. they see increased benefit also from a deal. they are bumping target to 118. stocks at 100 now. folks, do the math. >> on positive commentary from ne nutrisystem. >> their target is 22 bucks a share. that's 20 plus percent above current stock price. already hot up 50% over the last 12 months. >> and another one to watch upgraded to buy over a hold. >> up 0.2 of 1%. they believe that they will grow revenue at $27.01.

87% gain. >> it stunk over the prior 12 months. >> it's an annuity at this point. >> it has high dividend. all right. final stock here. it's always under the radar and it's a semiconductor company based in california upgraded to a strong buy. >> it's helping. stocks up 3.72% to 22.61. target is 29. they still see 5.5 bucks upside. average target is 30 bucks a share. even slightly more bullish overall on wall street on smtc. from street talk to talking numbers where every day we hit one stock from a technical and fundamental perspective. today we talk about dr. pepper snapple.

nick, when i see a beverage company that's more than doubled in 12 months, i wonder why and how much more it could possibly have left. what say you? >> so dr. pepper has done a phenomenal job managing costs. the top line environment has been tough for these guys as carbon a carb carbonated stock has been hit hard. they are looking for names with earnings visibility and dr. pepper is doing that. >> what does the chart look like on dps? >> it's quite fine. the key is outperformance. it's not too much outperformance. if one looks at this stock compared to pepsi and coke since the bull market began, you have something in the order of a double. so then that brings to question is it too much? and if everyone looks at absolute chart, an orderly 45-degree angle north by northeast. every time it gets steep, a nice pullback and the best part is this stock is not like -- you

have 22 analysts covering it. three have buys. it's delivering results. there's nothing not to like. chartwise, we would say stay long and be long. >> do you want to bash your competitors? three buys? >> what happened? what did wall street get wrong here? >> i think people have been focused on the top line. there's only so much you can cut in terms of costs. at some point it's not sustainable. people have been looking for evidence and science that a lot of the top lines can be reversed and no one is seeing it yet. this company again are so focused on costs because of the top line environment and that's what is taking a lot of people by surprise. a lot of calls for earnings misses. we are above consensus on earnings because we think they can continue to cut costs. one more quarter of easy margins and once they get into fourth quarter we'll see how much they can do for an encore in terms of the cost structure. >> positive views from fundamental and technical side.

thank you. check out the online addition of talking numbers in partnership with yahoo! finance. >> we need a market flash. welcome back in bertha coombs. what are you looking at? >> looking at the faa proposing a $12 million civil penalty against southwest airlines. officials say southwest failed to comply with regulations regulated to repairs on a boeing 737 in three separate cases. the faa is alleging that southwest return the jets to service and operated them when they were not in compliance with faa regs. southwest stocks today trading marginally lower along with the rest of the sector. brian? >> all right. that's not comforting, is it? thank you very much. is pandora the music service headed for a huge fall? one our guests says yes. he expects it to get ugly. other says stock is a good buy. >> fighting continues in israel. breaking news on a hamas attack into israel through one of those terror tunnels. that's coming up.

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twitter numbers are coming out tomorrow. the stock down 40% over 12 months. this is an after the bell company, right? >> it is. thank you, brian. you're so sweet. >> 3:30 mountain time. >> let's talk the fed here. meeting this week and of course tomorrow and wednesday we'll get the latest decision on interest rates on this show. coming up on "closing bell," we'll talk with the fed critic. >> james is so much more than that. >> he is actually. if you want to talk about the calls he's made on this practice so far this year, they include talking about biotech right before that sell-off and warning us about valuation in the bond market. we know how that's performed. talking last time he was on about the gold miners and they had a move lately. lots to discuss. >> it's six months into janet yellen's term as fed chair so we're assessing right now as she meets with the team this week and talking about their fed

policy. how's she doing? what's leadership look like. we'll get to that at the top of the hour. maybe we'll finish positive for the day after all. >> stay tuned to find out. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. meantime, where's the beef. it's not on the range. get this according to the beef industry association, cattle stock is at the lowest level since 1951. that's the year "i love lucy" began. futures up 18% this year. no question why. not many cattle out there and demand for steak continues to go up. pandora slide goes down. shares tanking on friday. initial guidance ironically came in a little bit above consensus. is this a buying opportunity or a clear signal to get out? joining us now is raymond and aaron and david. david, i'll start with you. you had a note saying pandora is

in big trouble and you thought it would be a penny stock. that's a strong statement considering the name that's actually up nicely over the last couple of months even with friday's drop. >> absolutely. it's all about growth in my opinion. when it all boils down to it, would you tell your mom to invest in this when the growth slowed to 7.5% year over year? it's monthly users and hours are down month over month. if it's not growth, how can you justify this multiple anymore? you can't. >> that doesn't mean it goes to a penny a share. there's a big difference between saying a company is slowing and doesn't deserve a multiple and it becoming a penny stock. >> that's a great -- definition of a penny stock is actually anything trading under $2 or so. and my take is that eventually this thing will not be able to justify its multiple anymore because the whole justification for it being this high is that it's a growth stock, right? if it's no longer a growth stock

and you see apple and google and you see that eating into that share and you'll see the stock slide and if you look at the two-year chart on this thing, you'll see it's a good head and shoulders chart on that. i have a feeling there's a good chance in the next couple years it will be a penny stock. >> we'll get to you in just a second. we want to hear your bullish view on the name. we have to push back. i agree. i switched more to spotify. itunes radio may get better. >> i think that's their only chance to be bought out. the problem is being bought out isn't an investment thesis.

they may get bought out by an apple but because they are so overvalued you can't bring into the fact they may get bought out because they may not. >> aaron, why is david wrong in your opinion? >> for one thing, we think market share is dominant of internet radio 75% market share today. even though the user growth slowed to 7.5 percentage on ear ov over year basis, they don't need to grow users anymore. we think if they maintain a high single digit user growth and they may invest more in marketing to accelerate that user growth. another thing to point out is operati operating margins remain around 5% today. th we think long return that can go up to $80 plus. that drives operating margins up for 5% today. we think to 30% plus longer

term. which isn't really being factored into the current valuatio valuations. >> far cry from $2 or below that. i want to ask you about a couple others. you mentioned a boost in sales force and boosting local sales reps by 50% over the last couple quarters and we're entering a mid cycle elections that equals political ads spent. do you see these as potential catalysts? >> both increase in sales force and you're starting to see accelerating growth in local advertising up to about 20% of the revenues last quarter in terms of advertising revenues and we think political advertising in the second half of the year could lead to upside to our revenue estimates. >> all right, guys. interesting debate. david, i'm sure you'll generate a lot of chatter out there. not everyone will agree with you. the average price target is just south of 35 bucks a share.

that's what it takes to make a market i guess. thank you very much. aaron, thank you. >> thank you for having me on. >> thank you. all right. switching gears, the cease-fire in gaza did not hold. reports of more attacks today. we'll get a live report from the ground coming up. >> also medicare could last longer than we thought but don't go celebrating yet because social security disability is headed for big trouble and soon. stay tuned. [bell rings]

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the fastest office plant. so why wouldn't i choose the fastest wifi? i would. switch to comcast business internet and get the fastest wifi included. comcast business. built for business. the conflict continues to rage in gaza. at least 12 people were killed today when a missile or a rocket -- it's yet unconfirmed -- hit a hospital, and hamas is blaming israel, but israel says it was a misfired hamas rocket. a hamas combat team snuck into israel and got into a firefight with israeli soldiers. nbc news's martin fletcher is live in tel aviv with more. martin. >> reporter: hi, brian. hi, melissa. well, it's been a heck of a day here, began looking good with the possibility that a cease-fire may hold, the cease-fire that was demanded by the u.n. secretary-general of the security council of the u.n. and also president obama. it began quietly enough, but then the cease-fire on again,

off again. what happened was that two shells hit two places close to each other in gaza, the shifa hospital and then the shadi refugee camp about five minutes away. about ten people were killed, nine of them children, and many people wounded. israel almost immediately says, it wasn't us. they said right away that it was too rockets fired by islamic jihad, another islamic militant group, that fell short, that misfired. so, they say the palestinians killed those palestinian people, not israel. now, hamas immediately -- islamic jihad immediately said no, it was not them, that it was israel. so, that's back and forwards. at the same time, mortars were fired from gaza, and they fell inside israeli where there was a staging ground, killing four israeli soldiers and wounded others. another israeli soldier has been confirmed killed inside gaza. and in yet another operation, five palestinian fighters, apparently through a tunnel,

were able to infiltrate inside isra israel. they got very close to the border with gaza. israeli say they killed the five palestinian gunmen, but hamas say that they've killed ten israeli soldiers. well, there's been no confirmation of that yet here in israel. so, it's been a day with a lot of back-and-forth, a lot of significant fighting going on. all at the same time, israel's continuing to bomb targets in gaza. and so, where yesterday we were saying all eyes are on the cease-fire, potential humanitarian cease-fire for a week, today now it's the opposite and prime minister netanyahu has just gone on israeli television to say that there will be a continuous occupation, which means that it could get a lot worse very quickly. brian? >> martin, thank you very much. be safe. the anger on both sides beginning to spill over into the united states. the israel discount bank's main branch was vandalized with fake

blood on its front door on friday. the bank workers had to hunker down inside. the related protests played out. nobody was hurt. now, similar protests also took place around manhattan and at a l'oreal store nearby. demonstrates targeted l'oreal because it sells products made in israel. again, this is happening in new york city. medicare has money to last longer than we thought. john harwood explains. >> reporter: we got the new report from the trustees of the medicare social security system and they had a modest bit of good news that because of the deceleration in health care costs, medicare is going to be unable to meet its commitments in the hospital trust fund in 2030. that's four years later than was estimated last year by the trustees. social security is estimated to be unable to meet its commitments in 2033. that's the same as last year. now, the disability insurance fund within social security becomes insolvent in two years. that can be handled if congress

shuffles around tax money within the system, but overall, in 2033, that's when social security will only be able to pay 77% of benefits. so, both of these reports, even with the good news in medicare, underscore that we need entitlement reform in order to make these programs sustainable for the long term. >> all right, john. did you want to ask him a question? >> well, no. yeah, i want to dive in a little bit more to the disabilities side of this, john. we've seen exponential growth in the disability program here. any commentary on that? any idea -- i think we've got, i think it's with children of those on disability, i think it's 14 million. if everybody on disability lived in a state, it would be the eighth biggest in the nalts right now. any commentary on the numbers there? >> reporter: well, the numbers are not good, but they've been not good in the past as well. in 1994, congress resolved a similar round of insolvency by reshuffling the tax revenue raised by the main social security into the disability

fund. but overall, as i mentioned before, we've got to have entitlement reform and reforms within the disability program are things that have been the subject of interest from both parties. hasn't gotten much headway, but in the context of a larger entitlement reform, it could happen and needs to happen. >> all right, john harwood, thank you. we will be back with a stock to watch, one from each of us. >> i've got the best performing mid cap stock in july. >> really so? >> it's a name you'd never guess. how's that for a tease? >> bring it on, brian. stay with us. ster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

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tonight on "fast money," we're talking to the ceo of a biocap stock that's up 250% over the past 12 months. not bad for beta and biotechs. that's tonight on "fast." as promised, the two stocks brian and i are watching. i am watching tesla. >> why? >> tesla shares are up 2.6% right now. nikkei is reporting that tesla's inked a battery deal with panasonic. the companies have not confirmed nor denied the reports, but the stock getting an intraday jolt based on this report. >> okay, my stock is steel dynamics. >> why, brian? >> stld. because i just looked here. it is the best performing nonbuyout stock in the s&p mid cap 400. yes, it was a buyer. it bought sever stall, the russian assets in america. so, steel dynamics very quietly has been soaring over the past

couple of weeks, just a name we never talk about. something to watch. >> yeah, absolutely. absolutely. >> stld. there you go. thank you all for watching "street signs," and melissa, thank you for being here. >> thank you, brian, for having me. despite the physical violence towards me. but anyway, "closing bell" is up next. ♪ and welcome to the "closing bell" on this merger monday. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. yeah, the markets not getting a boost from the merger monday that it usually would, you would think. we had two deals making headlines first thing this morning -- family dollar and dollar tree merging. and we want to know, what would you call the combined company? but we'll get to that later. then the real estate giants online, zillow and trulia, some of them are trading higher, not the overall market, though. we will take a closer look at both deals and uncover what's holding the bro