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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  July 30, 2014 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT

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american airlines, too. >> rf micro again. >> akami, i bought it today. >> i ball some calls. have a great rest of the day. ty, take it away. power starts now. >> thank you very much. the numbers tell the story. day of data. adp says 218,000 private sector jobs were added in the past month, second quarter gdp coming in at a big number, 4%, economists predicted 3%. i'm tyler math i sen. sue, welcome back. she's at the nyse. you might november have to the -- work. dow jones industrial average now on the minus side by 48 points, the nasdaq composite up 12.
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s&p is down about 2.6, and the russell 2000 is just on par with percentage moves, so bob pisani is here to explain the illogical response. >> a lot of people felt this doesn't change their second-half outlook, the second quarter gdp. a lot of people fed they might hind they may. >> there you are at 2.5., and rate-sensitive stocks all week today. consumer staples, utilities, telecom, housing, all interest rate sensitive, though economically sensitive groups like consumer distressary, financials, technology stocks put them up, they are to the up side. then there are reports that ukraine might be getting worse.
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russian troops -- russian stocks move to the up side on some people's believe that the sanctions weren't quite as bad as people anticipated. finally an idea that maybe a market correction is coming. alan greenspan was on another network say we think there will be another correct coming. but we don't know when. >> with all due respect to mr. greenspan, that's a discussion we've been having for a long time. >> thank you, sue, better than i would have. rapid update. hey, steve. >> hey, steve -- sue. the story is that there's no change in the forecast, and that's news. we have an update to 3.2%. the range is 2.5 to 3.6%.
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barclays with the bottom of the range. maybe we would call it to back off on the third quarter, that's not the conveys, at least not the early read. 2 1/2 up from, business investment turning around, residential investment turning around so, sue, one of those in the sense that they are not at the moment reducing their forecast. back to tyler on gdp growth. >> it's steve, right? >> yeah, i had in my brain all this stuff i wanted to say. it happens, man. >> he just tossed to himself. >> that's a beautiful thing hang around, we're going to britain
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in our contributor, ron insana. there anything you would nitpick here? >> not really. everything is talking about artificially skewing the data, but when you netted against the first quarter, it's kind of where we've been. it's not that big of a deviation. it does underscore the impact of the weather on the first quarter. so it was a natural bounce-back, bigger than people expected, but i don't think it's so big that it changes the fed's forecast. >> pick up on that thought, steve, or on the thought that you made yesterday, which was the idea that to get to sort of 3% growth for the year, man, we had to shoot is the lights out, and did we? >> we would have a lot of work to do. this is one stuff in that
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direction, though, tyler. some of the investment guys were talking about, the nominal growth number, 6%. 6%, which is the real number plus inflation. if we can do 6%, i think investors will look well beyond what the fed will do. >> all right. interesting thing about that too, tyler, is the deficit would go down to zero. >> let me turn you to something you wrote about on cnbc.com, and it plays right off a stronger u.s. economy that's the idea that foreign capital is moving here, that the united states is regarded as a bulwark of safety and the economic is doing very nicely you characterize it as a new switzerland? >> and i don't think it's temporary. whether it's wealthy russians, chinese, europeans or latin-americans, there's a lot
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of money coming into new york real estate, miami real estate, chinese, even though they were doing this partly to manipulate -- >> russians, chinese, lots of people. >> every place. >> brazil, south americans. >> 116 -- 62% is -- everything is taking advantage. if you look at the responsibilities in our markets people have been buys bonds, u.s. stocks. >> give me 15 seconds. >> over the last two days markedly diverged, even with lower prices, if indeed we saw this divergence continue, or if we saw the fed hirsch at an
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earlier rate hike. >> of course, u.p.s. did not help that one at all. ron insana, to rick santelli, breaking news in the bond market. >> 29 billion, and remember, the old guy. like everybody sold off. that the grain -- the ultimate yield, 2.25, which 2.5 was the bid to cover. a little higher than 42%, and one off the rails, 15.2, the lower since july of 2012. charlie minus, but qulo know that any issue could have done we had today with the selling pressure. tyler, back to you.
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ricks terr, back to you. bertha? humana taking a hit after the health insurer said the second quarter profit fell 18% because of a spike up in benefit costs offsetting -- humana is off 5.85%, that's taking other scherrers with it, including wellpoint. wellpoint reported better numbers, raised the outlooks, and said it's okay where medical costs are as aetna has said. there's still a debate as to what's happening and who can really handle them right now. >> bertha, thank you very much. with the focus on the economy and of course the fed, where are -- let's ask jill kuhn i have, seeing over $28 billion in assets, including one of the nation's first-ever mutual funds, and lee partridge with
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over $20 billion in assets. welcome, guys. you all manage quite a bit of money. jill, were you impressed with this morning's data as far as it goes to gdp? does it confirm your thought that the u.s. economy is slowly but steadily improving? >> well, we've always believed that the economy has been on the slow steady pace of recovery. so a 4% number is a bit higher than our expectations, but it doesn't feel like a 4% economy. it feels more like a 2% economy, which is what we believe, slow and steady, and would you agree with that, lee? >> no, we would absolutely agree. we think we're -- we think a lot of the rebound we saw on the last quarter came from weather-related suppression. the one thing i highlight is the jobs picture isn't nearly as rosy as what the headline
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standards would indicate. we see roughly 41% of working-age america not holding jobs today. the 20-year average before the crisis was 37%. so it's a huge increase in unemployed workers. yeah, we remain concerned with. >> so let me ask you, then, given that backdrop, where would you put money to work in equities? >> in equities, we think that some of the more conservative places would be energy. actually technology isn't as overpriced as some of the more cyclical sectors, so we're very concerned about financials. we think if we're going to get into a more aggressive or hawkish fed that financials are not where you want to be, consumer discretionaries are particularly vulnerable in energy and technology are good places to kind of hang out. >> all right. jill, you get the final word. i know you were looking at the
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dividend-paying stocks at some point. do you still favor that area? where else would you put capital to work? >> we absolutely believe in dividend-paying strategies. both in the large-cap space as well as the small to medium size company space. as far as where we're finding opportunities, business development companies in the financial sector is a great opportunity for investors right now. they offer attractive yields, and it's definitely a growing segment, where some of the big money center banks are having some issues, so we're finding opportunities in financials, and believe very strongly in dividend-paying strategies, as the economy goes back to a more fundamentally based focus. all right. thank you both. appreciate it very much. >> thanks, sue. >> thank you, sue. back to blerta coombs. >> take a look at orange juice futures that continue to slide despite better than expected trader don't think that would help consumers bought 36 million gallons in the four weeks ending
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july 5th. that's down 8% from a year ago. right now the futures themselves are 3.7%. tyler? >> bertha, thank you very much. new crash test ratings on electric cars, the batteries standing up very well, but would you if you were in one of these vehicles? that's still ahead. and check out ucla's campus. completely flooded. some students having fun, though. a little surfing there, that's nice. that's what friends are for. the full story behind it, next.
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welcome back to "power lunch." after codeveloping that drug with sanofi. up just over half a%. bertha, thanks very much. check out these photographs. a broken water main along los angeles' iconic sunset believed, spelling millions of gallons of water onto the ucla campus. this is how sharknado really started. and into the underground garages. let's take a picture. tweet it out. there is pauly pavilion, the
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famous it underwent a renovation just two years ago. coach al ford cannot be pleased. >> and the debate will be who has to pay for it. they're going to have to rip up the floor. that's the word. c.h. robinson upgraded to neutral, the firm increasing the price target to $68 from $52. international pate cup to that should from cutten to $52 from $55. the stock's off better than a percent. steel stocks are popping, however. as a matter of fact, a 20% game in u.s. steel, rising today after reporting better than expected results late yesterday. we talked to you about orange juice really getting hammered, you can see the chart down 9% in a week.
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we're going to talk to him about that. >> let's -- first of all, tell me where you think the market is going to go from here. how much more to the down side do you think o.j. has? >> orange juice prices are very much in the dumps recently based on the fact we've had the smallest retail demand since we've been calculating figures. florida produced the smallest crop in history the past year it looks like we're heading down to 125 per pound. >> what is your near-term price target as we wrap it up? >> we're probably done going down for the day. probably another 10% or is a% drop later this week or beginning of next is likely a support level for us. >> james, thank you so much.
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really appreciate it. >> my pleasure. ty, up to you. >> once powerful hedge funds shut down after it was embroiled and admitted to insider trading, but steven cohen is still making a killing you won't believe how much money his new family office fund is bringing in. up next, a power pitch with some extra boost behind it the start-up is offering a new way to take daily vitamins. will our judges take the shot or not? >> i won't be swapping out a good bordeaux or nice shelf onblanc for this. >> i couldn't get over is the taste. are you in or out on this week's start-up in go to cnbc.com/vote right now, and get ready to start voting. we needed 30 new hires for our call center. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates
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name now for the power pitch. our panel of experts and you get to vote if you are in our out on the business. get ready go to cnbc.com/vote now to vote as the power pitch unfolds. >> hi, everybody i'm mandy drury. in a moment we'll be watching today's "power pitch." you can grade it during the pitch. log on to cnbc.com/vote and give this pitch an a, b, c, d or f.
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go ahead ready. this today's pitch. hey, everybody. my name is ray -- and i'm the founder of the boost liquid multivitamin. spelled like juice, but pronounced buy the wort boost. i not garb off of pill-form vitamins. i did not like those horse pills getting stuck in my throat. i also wanted better absorption. at the end of the day a pill form vitamin only absorbs 10% to 20%. so i created buice. it gives you 100% daily value of the entire spectrum of vitamins from a through k, gluten free. gmos free, dairy freed, nut free, soy free, and caffeine free. i don't want caffeine in my vitamins. it's the perfect complement to
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my healthy lifestyle. you can find it on buice.com, also on amazon and selected retailers nationwide soon. >> he has investments in several companies. an with us from london today is richard demb, founder and ceo of abe's markets. abe's markets also has an investment fund that invests directly to their brands on the site. from yale university is dr. david katz, director of the prevention research center and nutrition expert. he's also written several books, inclusion "disease proof." you're in the hot seat right now. nikhail, you have the first questioned. >> in order to build a huge brand, you need advocating how
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do you build a billion dollar brand with something that's different to understand. >> i have moms amoo, the midwest mom who gives their vitamin to the kids, taking the vitamins themselves, and then through a nice celebrity athlete seating program, we'll get the product out there. >> richard? >> who is this marketed towards? the packages feels more gym-like, health club oriented, yet i'm hearing a lot about mothers. >> right now the demographic ironically is split 50/50. it's really for anybody that wants to live a healthier lifestyle like myself. >> dr. katz? >> i tasted it. i won't be swapping out a good bordeaux or a nice, but it wasn't too bad. what problem are you solving? what public health are you hoping to fix? >> i solved my own problem, which i would get nauseated from pill form vitamins. i'm just trying to help people
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get their vitamin on a daily basis. >> can you speak a bit to the taste and what are the other options you may envision? >> we are on version 1 of this product. i'm sure we can definitely refine the taste. >> dr. katz, a final question? >> do you have any evidence showing what the health effects of adding this product to your life tend to be? >> i look back on the decades of evidence about the benefits of vitamins, and i'm giving it to people now in a form that to me is much more convenient to take. >> are we in or are we out on buice? this includes you, the viewer. time to get out your phones or go on the computer and vote live. okay. nikhail? >> i couldn't get over the taste. it was really hard to get it down. i think what you're doing is sending a positive message to a lot of people to do more healthier things, but without true brand advocates saying i
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love the test and i'm going to give this to every one of my friends and children, i think it will be hard. i'm out. >> what about you, richard? >> i think juicing is one trend, convenience is the two. the combination of both get me excited. there's roof for improvement when it comes to packaging, possibly the flavor as well. so i'm in. >> if the particular benefit of this is adding this to products you're making at home from fresh produce, the answer really to moss missing nutrients is a balance of wholesome foods, so i'm still a little unsure about the public health problem we're fixing here other than for people who have difficulty taking solid vitamins. i'm afraid waiting for more information, i'm out. >> ray, what is your reaction? >> i appreciate everything everybody said. brand advocates that's not a problem. i will focus on that for the next we're and we'll improve the test and the packaging, and i really appreciate it. >> we look forward to hear what
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you're up to in a year's time. thank you to our panelists, too. also our live voting is about to close, so thank you, viewer, for your in or outs. that's today's "power pitch." let's go to the in or out. the viewer vote, i wish they were smell avision, folks. this does have an odor. i'm going to drink a bit of buice here. with some maker's mark, it has a chance. the vote is in 27% say they are in, they would be in on buice, 73% say they're out. let's look at how you graded the buice pitch regarding its effectives in. 18% an a, it didn't taste all that bad. 7% a c, 2% a d, 66% didn't like them at all, giving the power pitch an f. these are tough graders, sue.
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>> they are very tough graters. i'll go along with you, anything with at maker's mark is better, right? the markets may mea a maker's mark or buice. >> you assume they don't do it on a regular basis? it's a crazy day in chicago, marker or no marker, we're up 11 basis points. with you reasons it didn't go well, you see the chart there. keep in mind this goes back to the 8th of july. even though intraday, we traded this high in terms of yield, on the 16, which means there's a lot of mean reversions to the sell-offs that bring them down before we settle, so we need to pay attention. the big chart of the day is two-year note yields, at the highest levels should they close at this 57 mars, like at the
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dollar index, who doesn't think that good economic data or at least better economic data isn't better for the dollar. this is the good day for the greenback. sue, it's all yours. >> ricky, i appreciate it. these days it's not just inversions. u.s. companies are getting create i have been when it comes to avoiding pays taxes. morgan brennan has the story. after the break, two ways that companies are cutting tax burdens. actually both of these strategies have been in the news in just the past 24 hours. more on this when "power lunch" returns. the cadillac summer collection is here. ♪
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♪ i voted for culture... ...with a 'k.'
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how are you? i voted for plausible deniability. i didn't kill her, david. and i voted for decisive military action. ♪ america, you cast your votes. now, go to xfinity on demand and select the people's hotlist to see this summer's top 100 shows and movies. i voted! shares of public service enterprise group falling, this after the utility said it fell, it did maintain the full year's earnings outlook. overall utilities are trading to the down side. back to you. >> thank you very much, bertha. tax inversion has been in the spotlight, but it's not the only trick that companies are using these days to skirt taxes.
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morgan brennan break it is down for us. what's the newest? >> companies choosing a business structure to save on taxes is nothing new. we're going to talk about reits. these are pools of assets that invest in real estate and must distribute 90% of taxable income ago dividend. in return the trust doesn't pay income tax on those dividends, but shareholders do. these have been around since 1960, but they've really taken off in the last five years, used for housing, shopping malls, mortgages, but now we're seeing a surge in nontraditional reits, storage companies and bill-day-old board owners, now just in the past 24 hours, telephone land line companyings like winstream. they've been outperforming the s&p 500 by 20% over the last five years while paying those hefty dividends. meanwhile, we're going to look
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at another one, mlps, another tax-advantaged structure. they also skirt corporate taxes by payings 90% of profits into dividends, did you they're usually tied to natural resources, if commodities. we've seen a number of publicly traded mlps just about double since 2009. here's the key to both. these are structures created by congress to encourage desirable investments not just to skirt taxes. even so, tyler companies like hess today just announcing plans to spin off midstream assets into an mlp. this is get a lot more attention. >> thank you, morgan. if legislation was just cosponsored to ban federal contracts for corporations who move overseas. congressman levin, good to have you with us. i get the idea here, you want to clamp down on inversions. how would this work in the case
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of, let's say a large pharmaceutical company that does a lot of business with medicare, for example? would they not be able to sell? >> we've had looked at that issue and it's a matter of some concern. the two bills probably differ on that subject. we're looking into it, but that's no reason to allow inversions to proceed helter-skelter. i brought a chart showing the spike in the last years. just look at what's happened in the last eight or nine years. this is really an abuse. and i understand ceos are asking for tax reform -- what? hold it higher? i'm glad to do that. can you see the spike? >> yes. i think there have been 52 deals of inversions, and 19 of them have occurred since 2009, so there is certainly a large spike
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here. what is your reaction to the story that morgan brennan just reported, and that's that the i.r.s. just yesterday green lighted the reorganization of windstream communications, and it may well be adapted by other telecom companies, to call themselves a reit. why don't you and i call ourselves reits? >> we've looked at that before. when tax reform occurs, we'll look at the issue of reits, but that's no reason toll turn attention away from inversions. i like your reporting, and i think it's important to do that, but the here and now right now, are all of these inversions that essentially are changing adds, and essentially escape taxes. the average citizen can't simply change their address and avoid paying taxes. >> no, certainly not. >> so why should they companies
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be able to do that? >> certainly not. >> you say certainly not. that's what we are saying. i understand the idea of banning these companies that invert from doing government contracts or participating or benefiting from them, but in the case of a pharmaceutical company, we are often reminded about how much cheaper drugs are sold for in foreign countries. what if you will et a company, a big pharmaceutical company do the inversion, but you said to them, you have to sell your drugs in this country the united states at the same price that you sell them in the country in which you are domiciled, like ireland if. >> that's one way to get at it, i suppose, but it won't be the major attack on this issue. they're essentially changing addresses, buys a foreign corporation and if there's 20% ownership by that entity, then
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the entire company doesn't pay taxes in the u.s. that's just not fair. the average citizen says we can't do it, why should corporations be able to do it? the answer is they should not, and we introduced legislation and some of the ceos are saying let's way for tax reform, but there was tax -- the speaker's reaction was blah blah blah, and anyway, even if you reduce the raid to 28% as the president proposed, or 25% in the camp proposal with some additional taxes that companies don't like, you would still have the inversion problem with countries like ireland that have a so% tax. so the answer is we have to address it here and now. >> it sounds very much like a fixable problem, and a loophole that ought to be adjusted,
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whether individually as part of separate legislation or part of something broader. sander leave, thank. >> thanks. you hit a home run on that one, you're right. >> i appreciate that, sir. sue, down to you? i guess not sue. it's tyler. he was shut down by the government haas year, kate kelly is here now with the details. take it away, kate. >> stye her, steve cohen has been running a huge fund, and a year after it was indicted and nine months after it agreed to settle with the government, cohen's new privately held fund point 72 has staged quite a comeback. during the first half, they generated returns that apted to more than 9%, according to someone who has seen those numbers. that puts it at triple the performance of the average hedge
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fund. because cohen's trading style is so momentum-driven, it's hard to know what strategies are benefiting him most recently given that his stock holdings change constantly, but the biggest holdings last period bud baidu, yahoo, hess and whiting petroleum. for much of this year, cohen was concerned about the rally in the u.s. market, say people who know his thinking, expecting a big leg down perhaps this summer. it's unclear whether that view has changed, but either way they doesn't appear to have skipped a beat. manage donald has had a bad week and it just got worse. details are next. she's still the one for you.
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ask your doctor about cialis for daily use weit's not justt we'd be fabuilding jobs here,. it's helping our community. siemens location here has just received a major order of wind turbines. it puts a huge smile on my face. cause i'm like, 'this is what we do.' the fact that iowa is leading the way in wind energy, i'm so proud, like, it's just amazing. more headaches for
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mcdonald's. a new ruling could make -- by the franchise operators. scott cohn has the potential fallout. >> and the fallout is super sized if this pin stands and ultimately that is still a big if. the project which has backed nationwide protests by workers, says the ruling finally recognizeses the control that corporate has over franchisees. the group says with real control comes responsibility and accountability. that seems to be what the n element rp general counsel's office has in mind in the cases that go forward, mcdonald's corporate could face responsibility. mcdonald's says it will fight against the changes, that goes against decades of established law. >> we want people to be able to grow and create jobs.
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this is going to put a hurdle on people being ability to do that, because it's either going to become more expensive to become a franchisee or the franchisor will put more control on it. >> franchisees worry that in corporate is going to be held responsible for their labor practices, the suits will want to have even more control than they already do, and that will be expensive for the franchisee. mcdonald's worry it could be exposed to a whole new of new responsibilities. labor advocates says it sets working conditions and should be head to account, ultimately this is likely to be decided in court. >> this is a big change, not just obviously for mcdonald's, but by implication for every franchise business, right? >> that's the worry that all of a sudden the franchisee is going to be dealing with a party that has a different set of interests than they do, and that is corporate. meantime, the labor advocates as i said, say the corp folks are
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already in there setting working conditions, providing the software, doing everything else and they should be considered joint employer. >> scott cohn, thank you very much. new safety tests out for electric cars. phil lebeau has the story. for years we have heard people say are the batteries inside the electric vehicles are they safe in case there's a crash? the latest test will perhaps shed more light on whether or not they are safe in all crashes. that story and more, when "power lunch" returns.
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with all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. white chocolate loversividual. don't like dark chocolate. milk chocolate lovers don't necessarily like dark or white. before we couldn't really allow the consumer to customize their chocolate. we needed a scalable cloud solution allowing them to select what they are looking for. now there is endless opportunity to indulge. customization is made with the ibm cloud. the ibm cloud is the cloud for business.
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sanderson farms near session lows, the stock being downgraded, down about 4.8%. it's still up more 30% year to date. sue? >> bertha, thank you. verizon downgraded, but they did increase the price target to 53 from 52, but the stock is still down on the day. cablevision downgraded. it's down a%. michael kors downgraded from
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neutral from outperform, the firm also cutting the price target to $98 from $114. that has the stock off almost 1.5%. new safety tests give mixed reviews for electric cars. phil lebeau is behind the wheel for us in chicago. >> these are a fresh tests actually done on a number of small vehicles. the overall tests are designed to see how the occupant safety handle it. the volt held up better than the leaf. what's interesting is the conclusion that the insurance institute reached regarding the battery compartments of these two vehicles. you this now the fifth round the tests involving the leaf and the volt in which the battery compartments were not compromised despite the fact these are violent collisions. the person who runs these tests, he says it's clear that these battery compartments are over time showing they can withstand serious collisions.
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>> i've not seen any compelling evidence that there's a systemic problem with electric vehicles on the road. i think what we see in the media are very high-profile, very severe real-world crashes with vehicles are literally ripped apartment and sometimes the batteries will overheat or leak, but the reality is that's happening with gasoline-powered vehicles happening all the time. we are accustomed to it and don't focus on it. iihs, by the way, did not do any crash tests on the model s. they haven't yet, because they either have to buy them or they have to be donated by tesla. that hasn't happened. tesla added platinum shields underneath the model ss to further protect the battery compartment there. shares of tesla, and a reminder tesla will be reporting the second quarter earnings after the bell tomorrow. the key thing to focus on, tyler, it's going to be the
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gibba factor, what did they tell you about development and finally breaking ground on the giga factory. will we get any news from tesla? that will be the focus tomorrow. guys, back to you. phil, thank you very much. we'll watch for that closely. that will do it for us on "power lunch." the dow is down 57. another big hour coming up with the fed. >> good to have you back, sue. >> thanks, ty. we just have to show you this, brian has a com i don't in "sharknado 2" yes, he does, there is brian, where is he? he's running, i'm told. >> and he's fast. >> there he is. look at the panic in his face. that's a still picture of it. it premiere tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern tame with brian sullivan at 9:00 p.m. on sky ficifi. all right.
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now that you have revealed that i'm a coward and i flee giant sharks flying from the sky, it's all right. i promise you, america, the words you will not here on "street signs", giga factor. we won't say it once, but we will talk about the fed, bill gross, the policy statement coming up. we'll have it for you, analysis of that huge gdp report, fill reaction, bill gross, we'll talk about twitter, we'll make fun of my coward is. i got to go. see you right after the break. we do? i took the trash out. i know. and thank you so much for that. i think we should get a medicare supplement insurance plan. right now? [ male announcer ] whether you're new to medicare or not, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses.
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does a big gdp number means that higher interest rates are on the way? we'll find out in minutes. we are just moments away from the fed's latest policy decision, we have reaction, analysis and debate on all of it, ahead. >> this is where the major averages are standing ahead, if you want to get our yours pencils. the dow is currently down by 62 points, also up as much as 71. let's look at the benchmark ten-year yield, currently sitting at 2.54% and gold has
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been pressured today, currently sitting around 1294. we've got a multimonth high in the u.s. dollar after the gdp. that is hurting the precious metal. >> that's not all we have. we have an all-star panel standing by. jpmorgan funds david kelly, and of course our very own steve liesman. i understand the gdp print was for the quarter. the fed has probably already made up is mind. i doubt they would know that figure. is it going to play any role down the road? >> i think it plays a role. i think it plays a role in the decision today. i don't think -- or signal an early exit, but they're hooking at it, it was a sharp rebound, especially not just the real number. the nominal number being up near 6%, that's something they have to consider. if this kind of strengths continues, i think it's fair to think they may accelerate their pace, but it has to continue. remember the words of janet
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yellen, he used the term false dawn, so the fed will not be fooled again. >> if you go back over the last five years, down 2.2% gdp growth, relatively slow growth, slow growth in product activity. it doesn't take a lot to overheat this economy. >> bob, you think that stocks are down today on the back of that. no way to should is it, you have a fantastic gdp print, because the market expects to pull forward interest rate hikes. >> undoubtly a 6% nominal number has to wake them up in some way, shape or form. we're moving from three-ish nominal to five on a sustained basis. that's enough to up the rate hike. i think this is great fuss for the economy, but mixed news for
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the office. you have a effect that could be hiking perhaps quicker than expected, not a whole lot, but yet the nominal growth number from which profits are derived, if that's higher, that seems to underpin the investment thesis in stocks. >> david kelly, what do you think about that statement that steve just made? >> i think that's right. it's still summertime for the stock market. they say you should make hay while the sun is shining. the sun is shining here, even if rates move up in anticipate of an arier than expected fed rate hike, i think it's still a better -- i still think it's positive for equity, but it is just a little unnerving watches how far out of whack i think the fed policy is here. >> you've got european bond yields, which we'll talk more about with bill gross in the next block, literally lows back to 1789 in the case of spain.
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where do we stand in the cycle and stock investing cycle right now this. >> well, there's no question deflationary issues still exist around the globe, hence the numbers you just cited. without question, things are improving here in the u.s. nominal growth is absolutely key. nominal growth is the beginning of the end of the deflation worries. this is good news for profits, it's good news for revenue growth. it's not particular good news for bonds. at what point do you think does this ub ser dove start sprouting those wings? the more inflation numbers we get, it feels like people are losing faith in the credibility of the fed? >> i think in yellen sees -- and is not exerting downward pressure and wages are exerting upward pressure, i think she'll change at that moment. i think she's an uber--dove
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given what she sees in the economy, but if she sees something different, i think she'll change her views. >> speaking of views, just a reminder, we have the fed policy statement expected in about eight seconds. it doesn't always come down, but i'm going to talk for 4, 3, 2 -- >> the dow down by 56 points. hampton pearson has the statement. >> the federal reserve committee says beginning in august, the committee will add to the holdings of mortgage-backed security at a pace of 10 billion per month instead of 15 and add to the holdings at a pace of 15 billion per month instead of 20, a net reduction of combined 10 billion march month in those purchases. looking to the economy, the fomc says since it last met in june, the indications are that growth in the economic activity rebounded in the second quarter, the labor market conditions improved with unemployment rate declining further, however, a range of i

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