ends up in the wine. absolutely not, he says. and someone purporting to be the author has offered a mea culpa. cnbc.com right now. >> that's weird. okay, thank you very much, jane. >> charlie sheen wine corporation. tiger blood sheras. thank you for watching, everybody. >> "closing bell" is next. see you tomorrow. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange on this monday. >> and i'm tyler mathisen in for bill griffeth at cnbc global headquarters. good to be with you, kelly, and everybody. >> good to be with you. >> stocks modestly higher on hopes that geopolitical tensions in iraq and between russia and ukraine will ease. >> but perhaps the biggest geopolitical threat to the market right now is russia, and nobody knows more about it than hedge fund operator bill browarder, kicked out of the country by vladimir putin, and you may be surprised by what he says is motivating all of putin's moves right now. plus, you can now put kinder morgan with the likes of exxon

and chevron after the pipeline operator consolidated all of its subsidiaries in a $44 billion deal. the deal is changing the face of the energy industry, but it could also spell the end of master limited partnerships, which kinder morgan popularized and are used by many investors for income. that is an open question and we will hear from a top oil industry executive on that, coming up. >> so, let's take a look at where we stand in markets as we head into the last hour of trade. the dow up about 22 points, well off its session highs above 74 points earlier. the s&p 500, meanwhile, adding about six. the nasdaq is up about 30. tesla is a key out-performer. we're going to talk about a couple of name-specific stories, but we've also, by the way, seen a 10-year holding at 2.4%. oil, interestingly enough, slightly lower, tyler. >> kelly, joining the closing bell exchange is joe hider from raymond financial, sam barnett

from sbb research group, diane garnett from clear alternatives, holly list from mcquarry and rick santelli is off today, so we don't have rick to join the fray. joe, let me start with you and get you to sum up your view of the market today and over the next several weeks. what are you looking for? >> well, we continue to be positive on the market. obviously, there are always question marks, and certainly, the geopolitical questions really scared the market last week. but you know, we're down 3%. now we've rebounded on friday, we're up a little bit today. so, we think that positive momentum is going to continue over the next few weeks. >> holly, do you see positive momentum in parts of the credit markets, too, like high-yield debt? >> there could be. we've seen a lot of action in the high-yield debt area, but i do think that you have positive momentum in treasury prices, meaning that you'd have lower yields. i think now that we're testing at 2.40 and you see that we

breached it briefly on friday, i think we've got a lower range in treasuries now, about 2.25 to 2.65, so i think the momentum is to lower yields. >> diane, give me some ideas here based on your overall viewpoint of ways i could make a little money or avoid losing it. >> you know, fischer came out and said he's a little worried about the growth that's going on right now in the economy. i think it's really important to take note that the pulp and paper industry is really doing well right now, and that is such a great leading indicator. why? because we have all of these companies like amazon, zappos, all of them today sending out their materials using corrugated box. and that has become an integral part of our economy. i think all things are going well. the one thing we need to be cautious about over the next couple of weeks is really the housing data. as the housing data comes out as expected, slightly higher, i think this is a great time. but the pulp and paper industry leading the way, i think that's a key barometer. >> i love the old corrugated box

indicator. no, that's a great one to bring up, especially in light of u.p.s. earnings today, weighed down by their workers comp costs, but the revenue is up actually year on year. sam, to you, let's talk about housing for a second. the homebuilders have struggled to stay in the green this year. what do you think the trend is there? >> well, i think that the economy is doing well in general and i think that with the breadth of indicators from gdp at 4% and the consumers driving it up, we have the highest level of consumer spending in six years reported, $98 a day, and i think that's going to always strengthen the housing market and other aspects of the financial markets. >> so, diane, let me go back to, i love the box analogy, too. >> oh, yeah, sure. >> should i buy the paper companies? >> you know, we're talking about $98 a day that consumers are spending, six-year high. i think now is a very good time to buy those companies. remember, we always kid around and say things like, ah, in the gold mine, it was the people

that sold the ax that did so well. i think nowadays, we tend to discount paper. people said, oh, technology took paper away. in fact, i'll bet most of the viewers come home tonight to an amazon box or something delivered by u.p.s. or fedex sitting in their driveway, in their mailboxes. i think it is the number one way for us to really get a good sense as to how consumers are spending. i think there's a lot of upside here in a space that doesn't normally get as much coverage as it deserves in its current role in the environment. >> okay. your favorite names, diane? >> probably international paper. i think i.p. has really done such a good job dominating that market, right? i mean, that's a company that has really taken a serious look at corrugated box and said we're going to send out discounted, you know, they give bulk discounts, second-degree price discrimination, sending all of this paper and box material out to the major warehouses. i think that's a really important place to look. they're worried about people

like mastercard and visa having softer headlines. when i see companies like u.p.s. having higher headlines, right? i mean, that's a really good indication. >> what about you, what gives you the confidence that momentum here is moving in the right way? >> well, really, if you look at any of the numbers, we just got employment numbers, we've created 200,000 new jobs six months in a row. we haven't seen that since 1997. if you look at consumer monthly debt obligations, they're where they were relative to incomes in the 1980s. so, we've got a lot of room for consumers to continue to drive this recovery and expansion. so, i think really, all of the data points with the notable exception of homebuilding, which we talked about, tends to be volatile anyway, are all positive, and that's why we think there is continued momentum for growth in this economy, not just for a few weeks but for some time to come. >> sam, why haven't we had a 10%

correction in so long? do you expect one? and would we be better off if we had one? >> no, i don't think that we're in line for a 10% correction. come on. i mean, if we were going to have a 10% correction, we have already had all of the events that could lead to it. remember, the economic crisis was five years ago, right? five, six years ago. we've had a long time of a slow, steady recovery. it's not like we've had this dramatic increase that happened, you know, literally overnight. >> right. >> we've seen economic data grow very slowly, and the market is kind of growing on pace with that, and if anything, falling behind. so, i don't think we're in line for a 10% correction. >> sam, could i get your thought on that? >> yeah. so, of course, everyone talks about corrections, and especially as prices get higher, everyone gets worried. we make a priority of always buying insurance and always investing in options to protect against losses, but that being said, we see this broad indicator, many broad indicators of economic growth.

another thing in addition to these data points that have been mentioned so far with consumers and with jobs, i'm encouraged to see small business optimism increasing. that number also hit its highest level in six years, and that means that people on the ground selling products are also optimistic that consumers will continue to spend, and i think that strengthened the underlying performance in the financial markets. >> so, holly, let me go back to you and what we're seeing here play out with regard to interest rates. if it's the case that we're in a lower range now, as low as 2.25%, everything that everybody else is saying seems encouraging for momentum here for the economy. is what you see different than that or, actually, are low rates part of that positive story, do you think? >> well, i think they're dove tailed together, because i don't necessarily think they're completely separate stories. but keep in mind that the markets can diverge based upon what they're trading off of. right now, your stocks are doing well because you have a low-rate environment, you do still have an accommodative fed, and earnings have been coming out better. there's no doubt about that, and that's helping equities. but the treasuries are also

lower, almost for the same reason. you do still have an accommodative fed. and the thing that we can't lose sight of is you've got these geopolitical tensions, that while they may be calm today, there's still that undertone to the market -- russia/ukraine, iraq, israel/gaza, and we can't forget ebola virus or what's going on in argentina. so, any of those other items could start percolating that's going to drive you into the flight to safety that we have seen in treasuries. i believe that's what took you below 2.4% on friday. so, i think you have this lower yield. and if you asked me what my favorite name is, it would be the u.s. treasury, particularly at the long end of the curve, because it's trading off of different data and it can do that over short periods of time from what's driving the equity markets. >> final quick question, holly, will interest rates on let's say the 10-year treasury be lower or higher at the end of the year than they are today? >> if you asked me, i'd say it's going to be lower. >> lower. there you go. >> yeah. like i said, i think the range is 2.25% to 2.65%. i think that 3% that a lot of

people are calling for is far off. i think you have to consider who's in charge of the fed and keep in mind, the fomc voting members are going to change over in january. so, if those hawks don't start doing something, there's going to be a less hawkish fed next year. >> all right, folks. thank you very much. we appreciate your all being with us today. very interesting final point there. >> thanks, everybody. iraqi prime minister nuri al maliki reportedly on his way out, but he may not go quietly. nbc's duncan golestani has the latest developments. duncan. >> reporter: ah, yeah, that's right. it looks like there could be some kind of confrontation in baghdad. we don't know which way this is going to go. al abadi has been announced the new prime minister. he was the deputy member of the parliament, but nuri al maliki isn't taking that well. his supporters are saying the new appointment lacks legitimacy. last night he was on television

saying he would not give up his office, that he wanted to serve another full term. and just today there have been reports of groups, security groups and police officers loyal to murie al maliki on the street blocking off roads. whether he's digging in for the long haul, whether he wants to hold on to power, we don't really know, but certainly, the international consensus is going against him, because the new prime minister has already had calls from prime minister biden and ban ki-moon, secretary-general of the united nations has commended the move. everyone really trying to get behind what they see is a consensus candidate, a unity candidate, because they want someone who can unite sunnis, kurds and shiites in this difficult time in iraq. back to you. >> all right, thanks very much. as we keep an eye on markets, heading into break with 50 minutes to go, dow's up about 34 points, 7 on the s&p and 34 on the nasdaq. >> we're going to take a look at walmart. it is lagging after an analyst

downgrade. plus, reports of a government food safety probe in shenzhen in southern china. the pros will debate whether you should buy walmart shares ahead of earnings that come out thursday. we'll have that one. also ahead, global concerns have hit the markets, but more than iraq, more than the middle east. we'll tell you why russia matters most to u.s. investors. emerging market hedge funds specialist bill browder will join us coming up. and next, the head of a social media company who laid off about 50 employees. listen to what he's doing. he's offering a $5,000 guarantee to hire his former employees. it's an amazing story. we want you to hear it, so stay where you are. we'll be right back.

it's a green day to wall street, and i'm not talking about the rock band. industrials are up about 0.25% at 16,593, nasdaq at 1,939, a seven, almost eight-point gain there, about 0.5%. and the nasdaq composite in percentage terms the biggest gainer, about 0.4%, standing at 4,405. here's a story we could use on this monday. our next guest may be a candidate for employer of the year. he was forced to lay off nearly half his staff after losing a big client, but not only is he helping his staff find big jobs, if one of the staff members are fired due to performance or character reasons, he'll pay that employer $5,000. >> so, what was behind this move? with us right now is jim tobin, president of ignite social media. mr. tobin, welcome. good to have you with us. >> thank you. >> how did you come up with this idea? where'd it come from? >> well, our whole leadership team, deidra browns, marcy roggin and i were talking after we got the news about the contract loss. and what was sad, obviously, was

the loss of income, but we worked really hard to find those people, and they're really good people. and i was really sad that we weren't going to be able to keep this team together. and as we talked about that and we talked about the quality of them, the sort of guarantee came out naturally, that they didn't do anything wrong here. it wasn't a performance thing. and if we can display that in a concrete way to the next employer, they should be able to find jobs more quickly. >> has anybody, jim, required you to pay out $5,000? >> no. we still have everyone employed through the end of the month, so we haven't gotten to that point yet, but i've heard it's been less than two weeks since we let people know if they had a job or not, and as of a few minutes ago, i have heard over 15 people have gotten new jobs already, so i think the guarantee seems to be helping. >> obviously in your business what happened was a contract that you had with, i believe it was one of the automakers, chrysler. >> right. >> it went away. and in your business, you staff up when the contracts come in, and when the contracts go away, you have to staff down. what was the response to your --

by your employees to this plan of yours? >> well, the response was really surprising to me. there was a lot of gratitude. and i didn't expect that. i expected a lot of emotions directed at me when i told people their jobs were being eliminated, but not gratitude. and i think it came from not only the guarantee but just telling them as soon as we knew and trying to be open and candid. and i just felt like that was the right thing to do to try and treat people with respect. >> and jim, you know, i wonder, as we get more and more on the service side, firms like yours, boutique firms that might have a big client come and go, they're bulky, they're project-oriented, if this can maybe be an example for other firms to consider as they look towards private-sector solutions for a lot of the frictions that are going to come up in the workplace in the future? >> yeah, i hope so. whenever you're interviewing someone, you've always got that question, why are they available? why did they leave that last job, and is there something i should be weary of? and what we were trying to say for these affected employees was no. if we still had the money, they

would still very much be with us. >> what have you heard -- obviously, the affected workers are sad to be leaving your company and losing the income. they're happy to have what effectively is a free-look guarantee on your behalf. have you heard from other employers in your marketplace, your competitors? what has been their response, if any? >> i've gotten 20, 30-plus e-mails from people saying, hey, i have these job openings, you know, who's affected? do you have any talented copyrighters or art directors or programmers, and we're helping share those lists. we're sharing the inbound with the affected employees. so, i think a lot of people are hungry for really good talent, and i think somebody's saying, this person's highly qualified, has had the effect we were hoping for. >> jim, is there anything more that you could do? i mean, the offer's already generous, but does this have you thinking of what more you or another firm in your position could offer? >> well, we kept everybody on until the end of august, and we've given them unlimited vacation to go on job interviews and just said, you know, just

tell us where you need to go and let that happen. so, the hr services ad has been really, really strong. so, it's a start. i wish there was more i could do, but it comes in at a time when the company also loses a significant part of our income, so that's a restraint. >> sure. and you mentioned that you actually, despite losing this big client, have more in the pipeline. is there any way of perhaps giving these employees, soon-to-be former employees, a first look if you begin to expand again? >> yeah, i've hoped to hire some of them back. there was sort of a going away party the other day and the consensus was we'll be back here working in six months and i'm going to try to make that true. in fact, friday we learned that we earned a new account in the fashion industry, which is exciting. so, we're hoping to begin that process very, very soon. >> we'll leave it there then, for now. jim tobin, we really appreciate your idea and the creativity here. president of ignite social media. >> thank you. >> and thanks again. all right, we've got about 40 minutes before the closing

bell. the dow industrials up 32 points. the s&p 500 up about 7. and the nasdaq is higher by 34. coming up, our jackie deangelis has a special report on which u.s. oil giants are scaling back their operations in the middle east and how that could affect stocks in your portfolio. and up next, walmart facing an analyst downgrade and a chinese government probe into food safety. two pros will debate whether you should buy walmart ahead of its earnings out later this week. we'll be back in just a few seconds. crohn's disease is tough, but i've managed. i got to be pretty good at managing my symptoms, except that managing my symptoms was all i was doing. when i finally told my doctor, he said my crohn's was not under control. he said humira is for adults like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. and that in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief.

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welcome back. the russell 2000 again the outperformer today, and that's helped markets generally maintain a little bit of their footing here. we are off the highs of the day, but the dow is still up 29 with about 40 minutes to go, tyler. and kelly, stocks kicking off the week where they left off on friday, moving up just a bit. bertha coombs tracking the movers for us today. what have you got, bertha? >> tyler, we're starting with priceline moving higher after posting better-than-expected quarterly profits due to a jump in international bookings. the stock trading up nearly 3% on the day. it's a different story, though, for dean foods, moving lower after posting weaker-than-expected second-quarter loss, warning on its third quarter and pulling its full-year guidance. that's the trifecta the street doesn't like. it's off 4.25%. tesla gaining ground, though, as well, after deutsche bank upgraded the electric carmaker to a buy with a $310 price target, citing better-than-expected growth. tesla trading up 5%. that mo-mo just comes back to

that stock. and we end with walmart, falling after jefferies downgraded the stock from a hold to a buy over concerns about investment spending. the stock apparently trading down just a little bit less than 0.5%. >> bertha, thank you very much. so, should investors buy walmart ahead of earnings on thursday? >> let's ask chad morganlander. he's bullish and bert from the strategic resource insight group, just made a bearish call for walmart at the beginning of the year. welcome to you both. chad, first to you, because i've got a note here from jefferies, reducing walmart to a hold, lowering its price target. why are you bullish on the name? >> in the short term going into earnings, you could be a holder of it and somewhat more, perhaps just a little bit subtle about it, but in the long term, going out three to five years, we believe this valuation makes sense. the key multiple is trading at roughly about 14 1/2 times 2014, 13 1/2 times 2015, trading at 11

times free cash flow. expectations are washed out. you know, revenue growth exceeds over 3%. then you could see the stock higher. revenue growth of about 3% to 5% over the next five years would put this stock perhaps at a total return of around 8% over the course of that time period. >> all right, bert, why don't you counter here? when i think of walmart, i think of the ultimate example of the law of large numbers. they've got to generate growth somehow. chad says maybe 3% to 5% sales growth. they're banking a lot on international operations, aren't they? >> international's really struggling. they're struggling with the massmart acquisition in africa, they're struggling with south america. they've struggled throughout asia. cnbc's reported today. walmart overall is only growing less than 3% and the stock's only gained about $3 in the last 14 years. >> wow. and it hasn't moved much at all. what about the cash flow here, burt? >> cash flow's good, but the

company's value trapped as it's been in for a long time because it doesn't have the right leadership to run the business worldwide, and u.s. has been struggling with negative same-store sales for five consecutive quarters, even with the gift they got from target, and they still can't be positive. so, investors should really run from retail with the exception of luxury and some of the speciality and category-dominant segments that are well led -- >> or amazon, yeah, it would seem. chad, that's probably -- i mean, the competitive threat is part of this. in that same note i referenced from jefferies, they say consumer shopping behavior is going towards e-commerce and local. can amazon really fight back here? >> i think the pendulum is going to shift one way and then the other way here. there's just -- everyone's so bearish on walmart at this point in time. you know, keep in mind that they do have buying power in regard to purchasing and negotiating. so, they can be the lowest price in town. they have $500 billion of revenue, so they have a lot there negotiating power.

i believe, though, that what you have to do here with this company is have time and patience, and that's what's going to pay off. over the course of the next five years -- and you have to have a three to five-year type of time frame -- that this is a very good quality blue chip company that you want to populate in your portfolio. and yes, again, the pendulum has swung one way, where everyone's very pessimistic about it. the quarterly numbers will come out. they probably will be below expectations. the stock will probably trade down 3% to 5%, but that will probably be a good time for investors to take a position in the company. >> burt, you said some pretty pointed things about management. what are you driving at there, you just don't like it? >> management has largely come out of hr warehousing and transportation, finance, not from buying, not from store operations. walmart since sam welden's hand-picked people retired in the ten years after his death in 1992, management's really been struggling. and as we advise the family's

financial adviser, when mr. sam died, we said the company would be good for ten years, would struggle the second ten and would get worse in the third ten. and what we told the walton family representatives then still holds true today. >> wow. all right. we'll leave it there, guys. thank you so much this afternoon. all right, about a half hour before the closing bell. the dow modestly higher, same for the s&p and nasdaq. russian president vladimir putin may be more of a thorn in the side of the west than everyone realizes. that's what emerging market hedge fund specialist bill browder says. he waged an anticorruption campaign in russia and paints a picture of gloom and doom. he'll join us when we come back. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected.

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morgan? >> that's right, kelly. well, events in russia and ukraine have moved the needle both to the upside and to the downside this summer, so, let's take a look at some of the bigger movers. first up, the downing of malaysia airlines flight 17 on july 17th over the skies of eastern ukraine. that event which so tragically killed 298 passengers and crew members is believed to be the work of russia-backed rebels. so, on the day of that crash, we saw the dow drop 161 points. russia headlines have also helped push the dow higher, though. and so, last friday, an interfax report said russia was ending military exercises near the ukraine border. so, we saw the dow finish higher by 186 points. it was the best single-day performance in five months, though only the ninth biggest economy in the world. russia matters for two big reasons. first, it's europe's largest trading partner. and also, russia is one of the top oil-producing countries in the world and supplies much of

europe with vital natural gas. that's why we see exxon and bp both have a huge presence there. in fact, exxon reportedly starting to drill in russia's arctic just this weekend, kelly. >> morgan, thank you. >> morgan, i'll pick it up from there. the market clearly keeping its eye on russia here. today a ukraine military spokesman warned that russia now has 45,000 troops on its border along with tanks, warplanes, attack helicopters, and earlier this afternoon, president obama called his counterpart in the ukraine and told him that any russian intervention in ukraine without his country's consent -- that is, the ukraine's consent -- would be unacceptable and a violation of law. >> bill browder says putin's motivation is not about geopoliti geopolitics, nato or history. rather, it's putin's personal survival at them of russia. bill joins us on the phone right now. thanks for being here. with ke start with any news on exxon? it seemed jarring against the

backdrop of increasing sanctions, troops along the border with ukraine, tough talk from nato. there's putin praising the biggest u.s. oil company, one of the biggest u.s. companies out there. >> well, at this point, putin is desperate for any kind of western investment, and particularly investment in the oil industry, because most companies don't want to get caught up with sanctions. and so, to the extent that exxon is still persevering in russia after all that's happened, he's got to go and publicly, you know, pat him on the back, which is what he did with this whole story today. >> you know, you maintain, bill, that putin's end game here is self preservation. explain your thinking there. >> well, so, the story behind putin is that for about 12 years, he's run what's been acknowledged as a cleptocratic regime, stealing from the estate at the expense of the people. people started getting angry about that around 2008. and by 2012, there was hundreds

of thousands of people in the street of moscow. and he thought he had probably gotten that under control with the secret police and so on. and then he saw across the border in ukraine a sort of junior varsity version of him getting run out of his country doing the same thing. and putin had watched the arab spring, and he said to himself, if they can run out the head of ukraine for being a crook, then the russians could easily run him out as well. so, he panicked right after that and he had to come up with a big, big strategy to make sure that this doesn't happen to him. and so, he gathered up his guys and said we need to invade a country. and he said, ideas, please. and someone said, well, we have 15,000 troops already in crimea. we don't even need to invade. and so, they came up with this plan, took crimea, and his approval ratings went up from 50% up to 80%, which then put him in a much more comfortable position. the problem is that he now has -- he's got -- this is like a drug addiction now with the russian population. he started -- he opened up the pandora's box of nationalism,

and so now people need more nationalism. and so, he's got to go and do other foreign countries in other parts of eastern europe. and so, after crimea, he went to eastern ukraine. and so, for anyone who thinks this is about ukraine, it's not. this is about putin absolutely scared to death that he'll be run out of the country, like the yanukovych, the ukrainian president, and potentially going to jail or possibly even worse. and so, he's a desperate -- >> bill, explain to me for a second. what you've said is he's basically unleashed the popular sentiment of the russian people, and that somehow makes him vulnerable and requires him to do more in order to keep and preserve this nationalistic sentiment at high levels without it turning against him. why is there a risk that any national sentiment will turn against him, requiring him to continue to do more? >> well, so, once you sort of take off the lid of nationalism and you get everyone all riled up and nationalistic and so on, if he all of a sudden compromises and backs down, then all those people who are all

riled up will say, wait a second, i thought you were nationalistic. then some other guy will show up and say, you know, if putin is too weak, i'm going to go and do this stuff and i'm going to arrest that guy who's too weak. >> do you think an invasion, whether it's guised as a humanitarian operation in eastern ukraine, is inevitable? and if so, what would the west's response be? what could the west's response be? >> reporter: we >> well, so, an invasion -- putin is doing unconventional warfare right now. one could even describe what's happening so far as an invasion. the guys who are running these so-called separatist movement, they're not ukrainians, they're russian. they're russians paid for by russia with russian equipment. these are not ukrainians running a civil war. these are russians in an unconventional invasion. will russia do more unconventional stuff? yes. what putin would like to do is create enough plausible deniability so he can kind of slowly creep into these places, and so by the time he's already

there, we can't even react. to answer your question what should we do about it, i don't think the americans are going to send troops on the ground in ukraine. i don't think the europeans are. and so, at the moment, our options are limited to economic options, which is, we could impose tighter sanctions, we can do what was done in iran, which is cutting off the russian banking system entirely by sanctioning swift so they don't do business with russia. that would bring russia to their knees very quickly. >> well, that's why it seems a little bit jarring at the same time for one of the biggest u.s. companies to be hailed by putin at a time like this. and i understand why. it's just, again, this seems to raise a whole host of issues about what you are and aren't allowed to do, and you know, what kind of businesses will and won't be okay to move forward. >> well, you know, in defense of exxon, they've got to go to a lot of very bad places, and so, russia's just on a list. oil's not located in good countries, and so, they're just hanging on by their fingernails hoping that they can continue to mine oil in the arctic or wherever, because there's not a lot of good places to get oil.

but you know, at a certain point, if things get, you know -- they're not going to want to be in violation of u.s. treasury sanctions. and so, if that's what it becomes, i'm sure they'll be not being praised by putin as they quietly withdraw. >> just quickly before we go, because i want to make sure i understand this. again, what russia's doing, what putin is potentially going to do from here, if i understand you right, is look for other ways in which he can act overseas to feed this nationalist sentiment that you've described coming from the russian people, but that's not a nationalist sentiment, is it? that's really almost an imperial motivation. and do you genuinely think that that kind of imperial sentiment exists today, absent some sort of provocation in other countries against russia? >> well, i mean, we see it. his approval ratings are now at something like 88%. i mean, people have been whipped up into a frenzy. you can call it nationalism, call it imperialism, call it what you want. you know, it's like watching the

world cup. the russians are rooting for the home team. no one's spending a lot of time thinking about, you know, is this right or is this wrong. all they're saying is our country, we're at war, we're going to support the leader. but he's got to carry on being at war and looking strong and being aggressive, which then leads to problems elsewhere, not just in eastern ukraine. the biggest and the most scary situation is the baltics. the baltics are part of nato. and the big question is, if putin does an invasion or a quasi invasion of estonia, will the americans and europeans say, are we ready to go to war with russia for people in a country we've never heard of, which most people haven't heard of estonia? and that's the really scary part. and if we're not, then all of a sudden, nato, which is this collective security apparatus, then all of a sudden, nato doesn't protect poland, doesn't protect romania and all bets are off. putin can do anything he wants. and in my opinion, and my prediction, that's his ultimate objective is to destabilize and

potentially destroy the credibility of nato. >> bill, appreciate the thoughts this hour. troubling, and of course, one of the reasons why we've seen such unsettled markets here as people try to make sense of it. we'll leave it there. bill browder, senior with hermitage capital joining us this afternoon. all right, kelly, we have 18 minutes before the closing bell. the dow, s&p and nasdaq moving up a little bit, dow by 19 points. >> we are moving a little bit lower. up next, moving out. why some u.s. oil companies are vacating parts of the middle east. our jackie deangelis has a special report. and later, back to school. single parents may face the toughest college tuition challenge of all, and in some cases, it's affecting their retirement savings. we'll help navigate that particular mine field after this. ♪ ♪ over 1.2 billion eyeballs are on us during the two weeks at wimbledon. true tennis fans want to know what's happening. they don't want to just see what's happening, they want to know and understand why it's happening.

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to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. welcome back. just 15 minutes to go here and the dow's trying to stay positive, up about ten points. the s&p's up less than five now at 1,936. the nasdaq hugging 4,400. tyler. all right, some big u.s. oil companies are pulling out of the middle east. jackie deangelis joins us now with the moves and what they mean. jackie? >> good afternoon to you, tyler. well, typically, when we see instability in a large,

oil-producing country like iraq, we do tend to see crude prices rally, but this time, traders taking a very rational approach here and crude really not doing that much over the last couple of days. i want to point out that the latest news right now is that there are reports out there that big oil companies, u.s. companies like chevron, exxon and hess, have pulled out some of their nonessential staff from northern iraq. some of these reports are not confirmed by the companies themselves. but you know, traders are looking at this from a production standpoint, and they're really saying what we're seeing in the north right now is a very small percentage of iraq's output, roughly 15%, and there are no supply disruptions at this point. if the 3 million barrels a day that comes out of the south, out of basra, if that is disrupted, that's the time when it's, you know, relevant to be concerned and oil prices could spike. we have seen this before where u.s. nationals leave the country because this is standard safety operating procedure, and typically, these moves are very

temporary until the situation calms down a little bit. so, traders saying not to make too much of this until we know a little bit more. but i do want to point out that prices in terms of crude prices were pretty much stable today. we were just over $98 a barrel on west texas intermediate at the close. brent crude falling under $105 a barrel and traders saying geopolitics aside, we are seeing signs that demand for oil is waning. so, if we don't have a big catastrophe, you could see these prices go even lower. and i want to point out the fact that gas prices down 6 cents over the last two weeks, and that's really good news for u.s. consumers. so, as i said, if nothing happens, we could see these prices fall more. back to you. >> jackie, i bought gas the other day at $3.19 a gallon. >> it's fantastic! >> it's really come down. >> where were you, north dakota, tyler? >> no, this was here, in new jersey, on route 46. >> new jersey, oh. >> come out to new jersey, kelly, we'll show you around. >> i might have to. i'll have to avoid the potholes, though. >> 13 minutes before the closing

bell. very modest gains and certainly not what they were at the earlier points during the day. the dow industrials up very slightly. the s&p slight as well. the winner, so to speak, at 4,400 on the button, is nasdaq. and sticking with the energy theme today, coming up, kinder morgan may be one of the biggest energy companies now that you've never heard of. we'll discuss what the future holds for master limited partnerships now that kinder is ditching that structure and consolidating and shares are rallying. we'll be right back.

well, the nasdaq has been the big winner today. seema mody keeping an eye on the action there. hi, seema. >> hi, tyler. best two-day gain since may. and it's a lot of the high fliers leading the nasdaq in the trade. tesla the best performing stock on the nasdaq 100, but the old cap names are also out-performing. we saw a sell-off in some of the high dividend-paying tech names earlier this month due to worries over the prospect of rising rates, but some of those stocks now staging a comeback. another factor helping tech today, morgan stanley upgrading the tech sector to overweight, that perhaps providing a lift to the tech index. of course, the question is whether this outperformance in tech in the broader nasdaq will hold.

some pointing that it is trading back above the 50-day average as a bullish sign. back to you, kelly and tyler. >> that will do it, seema. thank you so much. as we have about eight minutes to go here, tyler, joining us now to talk markets is bob kaiser from s&p capital iq. bob, what have you got your eye on? >> well, we're keeping an eye on the markets, obviously. there's been an uptick in volatility here, a lot of it driven by geopolitical concerns, obviously, but we're also looking at the federal reserve, because increasingly, federal reserve policy's starting to look a little out of step with the fundamentals of the u.s. economy, nonfarm payroll growth -- >> you're not buying what stanley fischer is selling? >> not at all. i'm more in the camp of stanley druckenmiller, where he says look, you've got nonfarm payroll three-month averages, they were at 340-plus, out of step with the 25-point basis fed fund rate. >> so, you think the fed is behind the curve here. do you think that means it's not going to end well, it's going to end badly? >> i think the challenge now is up to the fed to signal to the

markets, you know, what their intention will be, wrapping up qe and the market immediately, if the economic fundamentals hold up the way they have been recently -- >> and you don't think they've done that? >> the focus is going to be on the fed. >> you don't think they've done that? >> not at all. >> hmm. we're looking at some of the sectors today. looks like, if we could put the sector board up for one second again. bob, where do you see the most opportunity in this space, then? >> again, a lot of it's going to depend on the signals coming from the federal reserve. what i meant was a few weeks ago, the yellen fed started to indicate they were sending symmetrical signals and then they back-pedaled on that and said we intend to keep monetary policy very easy for a considerable period, and they neutralized the idea of letting the bond market, for instance, take over the view for interest rates. so, i think if the fed plays it smart here and they signal what their intentions will be for 2015, they can manage the bond market vigilantes and keep volatility relatively suppressed compared to what otherwise might

be the case. >> isn't really the only question here -- i mean, i don't mean to quarrel with you, but i feel fairly comfortable in saying that the fed has signaled reasonably articulately, for policymakers, that is, because i remember greenspan, and he was anything but articulate in this kind of stuff, that they do intend to raise interest rates at some modest pace beginning some time between the second and fourth quarter of next year, and the question is whether it will be early in the second quarter or towards the end of the third and then what the pace is. i'm not sure i'm understanding what the disconnect is. >> well, tyler, a year from now it still a long way out, right? so, if you look at nonfarm payroll growth right now, i said the three-month average rate is about 245,000. the last time we saw job growth sustain that strength was 2012, but then we had the economy fell apart, we saw qe-3 at the end of

the year. prior to that, we saw strong payroll growth in 2010, but the economy couldn't sustain anything. if you go back for the last time, we saw nonfarm payroll growth sustained in the 245,000 area, it was in april of 2006, after the fed had just completed two years of tightening. so, that's what i mean about the fundamentals not really sort of being in line with the signals that we're hearing from the federal reserve, because just recently, they put the focus back on labor market slack, and i'm just not sure there is much slack out there right now. >> bob, thank you very much. we appreciate your insights. >> appreciate it. >> great to have you with us. up next, we'll come back with the closing countdown right after this. and after the bell, talk about a vacation nightmare. two dozen thrill-seekers getting more than they bargained for at a six flags amusement park in maryland. they were rescued from what you can see there. we'll discuss what this year's vacation spending says about the economic recovery. you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. so ally banko hidden fees on savings accounts? that's right.

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[b♪ll rings] time and sales data. split-second stats. ♪ its so close to the options floor, you'll bust your brain-box. all on thinkorswim, from td ameritrade. it's been a day of modest gains for the industrials and the s&p 500. the nasdaq up about 0.75% at 4,402 and change. we've got about two minutes before the closing bell. back with us on the floor is bob pisani. what are you seeing today, bob? >> well, the important thing is we've had a remarkable run. it's true, a little

disappointing, we're half the gains we had earlier in the day, but the s&p futures went from 1,890 early in the morning on friday before the markets opened to 1,940 today. we went 50 points in the s&p 500 in essentially two days. that's a remarkable rally. the markets move on any news from the ukraine, good or bad, and number two, any comments from fed officials. i thought stanley fischer's comments were amazing. we think he is a centrist, by and large. everybody promotes him. his comments were very dovish, and prior to the open, he definitely moved the s&p futures early in the morning because he was speaking over in sweden today. so, those are the two things that move the markets right now. >> one of the things i've noticed, bob, you were with us on the day last week where the market really fell off the table and art cashin pointed out, it was probably a technical move. another technical thing was the market hit, i believe it was wednesday or thursday, hit its 200-day moving average. it hit it and it's been mostly higher from there. >> certainly, technicals matter,

but you can clearly watch the market moving in relation to certain key things like the ukraine and the announcement last week from the polish officials clearly moved the market at that time. >> absolutely, and i'm not a big believer in the technicals, but you sort of saw it there a little bit. bob, great to be with you. and that will do it for the first hour of the "closing bell." in for bill griffeth, i'm tyler mathisen. kelly will take you forward for the rest of the day. tyler, thank you. welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. and let's see if we did finish positive here on wall street. the dow jones industrial average losing momentum, losing altit e altitude, i should say. it was up 76 points earlier today. looks like it will close up only about 15, the nasdaq up about 30, the s&p up about 5. art cashin told us there were some sell orders on the close that could have contributed to that pressure as we hit 4:00 eastern time. joining our panel, john spalenzani, lee gallagher, our own dominic chu, and for more on

today's market action, "fast money" trader tim seymour. welcome, everybody. john, first to you, because you say you call these things at 7:00 a.m. or the night before. did you see this one coming, this losing altitude, i mean? we almost went negative at the end of the session. >> i think it was mostly dow stocks. the s&p held in pretty well, over 1,930, which was positive. we hit a 1,920 pivot for a long time, so we were kind of short below 1,920, long above. that seemed to work out fine. financials were a little weak, tech was a little weak. the funny thing is, given the mlp news and the kmi, energy actually lagged today, so that kind of held down the dow a little bit, but they almost -- >> we'll definitely come back to the energy story. there's a lot to discuss on that one. >> yeah. >> tim, what do you make of the action today, especially the fact that against a backdrop of just horrible events internationally, oil didn't really pop, gold didn't really get a bid, the vix was down today, stocks held up reasonably

well but not that great again at the end of the day. >> well, i'll tell you what, kelly, i think things were a little oversold. and as it was talked about, friday morning markets were debating all kinds of things. and clearly, it's a debate between the fed and interest rates, global growth, and so, how bad is europe? by the way, watch germany tomorrow. this is something you really should watch to get a sense of how bad things are or good things are in germany. then, global geopolitical risk, which for the last three months have done nothing to really derail this market. yes, they've led to all of the 3% sell-off in markets. so, not surprised to see that markets didn't go screaming higher today, but not surprised to see that over the last couple days, things are a lot better in tone. do not underestimate the impact of fischer this morning. i think taking the fed out of the mix for the next few days is very important to let the market continue to go higher. >> all right. that echoes as well some of the comments we heard from dennis lockhart on this program last week. >> yeah. i mean, if you look at the picture overall, the fed is still very much in focus, but it's taken a bit of a back seat to what's happening

geopolitically. but what you want to keep an eye on, at least for the most part, is those geopolitical risks, we've had a number of guests come on over the past week, week and a half or so, and talk about the nature of trading around geopolitical risks. there is a sense among many of them that these types of catalysts, if you will, in the market are short-lived, maybe a little bit more to the short and medium-term side of things. so, yes, they affect the way things happen for trading. remember also that as we've seen this market bounce off the lows to the upside, it was only about a 4%, 4.5% pullback from the highs we saw at the end of august or at the end of july, rather, to where we are right now. so, that's just shy of the average pullback that we've seen since 2011. the last time we saw a 10% pullback. but what's more interesting is the volumes we've seen to the upside, they haven't been hugely robust, which gives you the sense, at least for right now, that short covering is part of it and there is maybe a sense that people want to dip their toes in but not go wholesale into this market again. >> lee, welcome. >> thank you. >> what's on your mind these days? >> i mean, a lot of what dominic just mentioned. i think that investors are

getting reacquainted with geopolitical risk and more so in just the past week than they have in the past few months as there seems to be almost a pylon nature of all of these incredible disasters that are happening around the world, many of which affect large multinationals, especially russia. a very large market for any consumer-facing company. so, especially the autos, you know, any consumer products company. so, there is that. >> bill browder raised eyebrows last half hour on the program, especially when he talked about how russia's end goal is to destroy nato and potentially some involvement in estonia. and does anyone here just want to talk about what he said and how seriously we should be taking that whole scenario? >> well, i'll talk about it, because i've spent a lot of time in russia and i know bill browder. you have to put this in the context of first of all browder's experience. he was definitely put under a lot of pressure in this country, essentially exiled out of russia, his business put at risk, and a lot of things that happened to him i think are ultimately things you have to

ask questions about who's in charge in russia. but i think what you have right now in russia is a chance for putin to at least have a bit of an olive branch to come back in. the humanitarian aid concept gives him an eloquent way to not look weak domestically and maybe -- >> but tim, why does everybody always say that? it's just so strange to me the way that we all seem to somehow know, right, when these olive branches are being offered. can that possibly be the case, do you think? >> well, i think you have to understand that ukraine is something that is not how putin planned it. and everyone that thinks putin is three steps ahead i think is missing the fact that he's been reacting and he lost ukraine and everything else has been a bit of a show to kind of catch up. i think what's happening right now is putin clearly recognizes there is a cost to what he's doing. i don't think he's scared and i don't think his popularity's dwindled inside of russia yet, but i do think if you're playing the markets here, you do have a window where putin could give you better headlines. it's not going to change the fact that putin's stripes will not change here. but to say this is a big estonia play right now, i think that's extreme.

>> john? >> yeah, i think one of the interesting things is the fact that just on the eve of us going in to help iraq, putin pulls his troops back from the border. now, you have to remember, on a global context, obviously, there's rumors that the chechen rebels are helping isis right now in iraq. so, we don't know if there was a back door-type deal between obama and putin -- >> we should indicate, whenever we talk about rumors, please, everybody, take them with a grain of salt. >> but still, i mean, obviously, it's very coincidental that putin decided to pull his troops back just as we said we were going into iraq. >> putin pulled his troops back because he's losing the battle in ukraine and at this point -- >> i don't know about that. it's very coincidental that it happened within 24 hours -- debatable. >> i would also say this. whether or not we know the true motivations behind what putin is doing and what ukraine is doing or what isis is doing and what iraq is doing, what we do know,

at least empirically speaking over the past couple weeks is that among the tragic geopolitical issues that we have with russia/ukraine, with gaza and israel, and of course, with what's happening with isis in iraq, we know that the market has put more emphasis and we have a quantification of this, the market cares more about what's happening with russia and ukraine than it does about any of the other things. that's the takeaway. and tim, i know that you watched this. when those interfax headlines came out that putin was ending the war games on the ukraine border, that's when we saw the real -- >> on friday. >> -- effort to the up side for the dow. that's the reason why you see traders, at least from a perspective, they're the ones assigning the most weight to that particular -- >> lee? >> i think that's true, but i think we don't know what to expect. i agree that putin doesn't know his next move and there's so much double talk. he's not to be trusted, even if he did know his next move, it's not to be trusted. so, this is very, very volatile and can turn on a moment's notice, and i think that's what

investors have slowly started to realize and are now kind of hyper aware of. then it's confounded by all of the other things going on in iraq and syria and everywhere else, in gaza. it's just a pile-on. >> it's important to dwell on it not least because we are going to hear from the president today about the situation in iraq around 4:45. so, it should happen at some point during this program. of course, we'll determine just as we get more information what more we can tell you about it. but in any case, there is going -- look, this is the first time this president who campaigned on getting out of iraq, this is a president who's now authorizing the first military operations in i think three years in iraq. so, as much understandably as we have focused on the impact to europe from what's happening in russia, the confrontation in the middle east certainly needs its share of attention as well. >> and i think the market did dip a little when we went up from, you know, maybe a little humanitarian aid up to 100 possibly a day is when the market came off its highs, about 1,840. >> that was today.

>> that was today, yes. >> how does that set us up, final thing on this point, for the rest of the week? >> i think that right now, i think a lot of macro guys are really cut kind of short in their models. so, i think if we move higher, as you said, dom, in terms of volume with some conviction, then those models are going to be forced to buy even more. so, i think right now we're watching the 1,950 level on the s&p as a big, major pivot for everybody to get back in. >> and we're at 1,936 today. tim, final word to you. investment themes here. >> yeah, well, you can't trade every move on this market, and i would say that you're getting windows to trade it. we're going to talk about that tonight on "fast money." i would have been selling vol friday. i think you've got a couple days to see vol actually move lower, and that's how you play it. but remember, hedge funds are paid to avoid geopolitical risks. so, you're going to see guys overtrading this thing, even though i think that the world is not that bad a place. >> all right, we'll leave it there for right now. we forgot, of course, to mention your supermoon theory. >> yes, supermoon. obviously -- >> do you buy it when there's a

supermoon? is that what you're saying? >> no, guys in the pit believe in the full moon theory. so, i think volatility does spike around full moons. sometimes it doesn't, but if it's an exasperated move like we saw this weekend, you can get volatility. police blotters go out. [ everyone talking at once ] >> cycles. >> cycles are cycles. >> patterns, whatever, they're all cycles. >> september 9th is the next supermoon. >> thank you, tim. september 9th is the next one. tim's coming up on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. they'll also be talking to dennis gart naen about the international hotspots he's watching amid all of this unrest. don't miss that. now, a major merger, and we briefly mentioned this. we've got more coming up, in the oil and gas industry. kinder morgan paying $44 billion to consolidate its pipeline empire into one company. up next, we'll look at the massive ripple effects this could have across the energy industry and on the future of the extremely popular investments known as master limited partnerships. also, be careful what you

buy on ebay and other online retailers. coming up, why that piece of nostalgia you buy may not be quite as authentic as you think. and have you seen this video? two dozen people stuck on a roller coaster in maryland for nearly five hours over the weekend. not even sights like this, though, are slowing down the red-hot theme park business, at least so far. what that says about the health of the economy's later on the "closing bell." you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. what if there was a credit card where the reward was that new car smell and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one. redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no limits. so every time you use it, you're not just shopping for goods. you're shopping for something great. learn more at buypowercard.com with all the opinions about stocks out there,

how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today.

welcome back. let's begin here with bertha coombs and a quick "earnings alert." bertha? >> kelly, check out nuance communications. adjusted third-quarter earnings of 20 cents a share, right in line with analyst estimates, but the top line came in weaker than expected at $487 million. the stock is currently trading lower. the company, though, is pointing to the fact that their deferred revenue is much higher than had been the last quarter and they are say they are trying to turn things around here. back to you. >> okay, bertha, thank you. kinder morgan sending shock waves through the energy space today after consolidating its subsidiaries in a $44 billion deal to create the third largest energy company in the u.s. that's also the biggest energy

merger since exxonmobil in 1999. what does it mean for master limited partnerships? kinder morgan popularized the kind of corporate structure that gives investors tax benefits through dividend-like payments. joining me with more, chris faulkner, president and ceo of brightling energy. welcome, chris. >> hi, kelly, how are you? >> what do you think of this move by kinder morgan? >> keep feeding the beast. you've got to keep putting assets into the mlps in order to spin out enough cash to pay the dividends. the multi smaller mlps don't have a problem finding the acquisition to move the needle. so i can't say it will die down or soften but be very popular with investors. we saw 16 energy mlps just the first half of the year alone, so i think there will be traction

still building for this kind of stuff, but kinder morgan just got so big. it's a unique story, i think. >> i want to bring the panel in. john, i want to know your advice on investors looking across the mlp space in this environment and liking low returns. can they count on sustainable dividends on par with what they're used to if kinder, for example, had trouble making the 5% and 6% range work? >> well, i think that right now we have to see this as one-off, and if it is indeed a law of large numbers where they just got -- the dividend became too burdensome. i think that if you look at after the mlp is done, i think they're going to probably pay mr. kinder like $500 million a year with that $2 dividend. so, he's going to be okay, but it depends how investors are going to be. i think also, one of the things we have to remember, we might have a change in the senate this year, right? we don't know what kind of things are going to come down the pike, so that could be one possibility. the other thing's obviously with the rates going to zero around the globe and rumors of qe and

europe coming about, you know, it's going to be hard for anybody really to pay 6%, 7%. >> chris, that raises an interesting question. so, do you think it's going to be increasingly difficult for a lot of these mass limited partnerships to pay the yields investors are used to? >> there might be turbulence coming down the road, for sure. i don't know if 6% or 7%'s doable. 4% or 5% might be, which is still a pretty attractive dividend, but it's about the acquisitions, what they can acquire as far as assets go, how much cash they can spin off. i think kinder morgan going back as an organization, they'll have a tax burden but also will have access to cheaper capital. that burden, that cash having to go out as a dividend all the time is now gone. they can utilize that money to grow their midstream business through acquisition, so it's pretty attractive to them. >> i think shell is going to be very interesting. >> good one, yeah. >> so, i think that will probably be the barometer going forward.

>> just to remind people, shell was just beginning to pursue this strategy of a master limited partnership. and chris it was interesting to read the coverage. some people said, well, the majors are always kind of a lagging indicator. what is your take on this? is this going to work for shell and is this something you expect to see more companies actually pursuing, even as kinder goes the others way? >> having a super major jump in this i think brings brand visibility. keep in mind, in 2012, chevron and shell both looked at the mlp market and were both concerned that it wouldn't move the needle for them. and i guess we've answered that now for shell, as they step into the mlp space. we'll see if chevron or any of the others follow. hess just announced last week they're going to spin off their balkan assets into an mlp. so, we are still seeing movement into the space. >> brian, it's something washington's going to be watching carefully in this era of inversions and outversions, if you wanted to call it that, whether it's spinning off the assets for real estate or for pipelines, these structures allow you, of course, to put a lot of the cash straight through the company and then pay those taxes on the income instead of

at the corporate tax rate. in any case, what i mean is should we look for this trend, regardless of the kinder news today to continue? and could that have an impact on the aggregate level in terms of the mountains flowing back to washington? >> are you asking me, kelly? >> yeah, if you have a sense, by all means. >> i think that the concern in washington will they change some of the laws around mlps? you know, the other panel has mentioned about the senate changing hands potentially in november. i don't know if -- the concern i think in washington is that there's a lot of taxes not being paid by the way these treatments work for mlps, but also keep in mind they would now have a huge private sector, this midstream space. we're able to now expand our u.s. energy infrastructure. which is more important? i think the government sees a small amount of that tax is not being paid. i think it's outweighed by the fact that this oil and gas boom is taking place and the infrastructure now is being built by a very large private sector like the kinder morgans

of the world. >> the jones act, you know. >> exactly. >> the jones act probably -- >> with regard to exports? >> yes. and i think that's what, obviously, kmi and others are setting up for. >> sure. >> to get, yeah, to get -- >> consolidating in this space so this can be the next big wave and they're positioned for it. quick last word, dom or lee? >> you have the crude exports as welcoming down the line. >> this industry is positioned for an incredible spurt of growth, and i think that's what they're doing, they're strengthening. you know, there is a tremendous demand for pipeline infrastructure. >> sure. >> this boom, you know, which kinder morgan was early to see, you know, in a sense maybe they've gotten too big to mlp and now they have to shift and pivot so they can make bigger acquisitions as a traditional corporation and grow that way, because there's just -- the demand is huge going forward for the next five years. it's unbelievable. >> i think you're right. >> i would say the shift here, it's interesting, because these mlps, it's all about the midstream and downstream. the refining market and

transportation side. it will be interesting whether or not you focus back towards exploration and production if oil prices start to head back north of where they are right now. >> yeah, that's a big if these days. we'll leave it there for now. chris, thank you so much for your perspective. appreciate it. >> thank you. what's old is now new on ebay. the company sees what you're searching for and sends that data to manufacturers overseas so they can make vintage-style versions of those items. it may not be counterfeiting, but is it deceiving to customers who may not fully understand they're not getting authentic items? that's next. and later, details of a scary, new study about how some parents are skipping retirement savings in order to pay for their kids' college education. we'll be right back. ♪ when the world moves, futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with paper money to test-drive the market.

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i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. welcome back. be careful what you search for, or at least what you're buying. ebay is sending chinese manufacturers your search data to quickly turn around near-authentic items when there's a spike in demand. so, if you like to use ebay as an investment tool, ken goldman from goldman auctions who specializes in memorabilia, says buyer beware. he's joining us from philadelphia. we reached out to ebay, but there was no executive available to comment on this. ken, look, ebay has strict rules about what's authentic and what's not, but do you get the sense that a lot of people buying stuff just aren't reading closely enough? >> yeah, i mean, what they're doing is they're teaching them how to make manufactured memorabilia or what really is a noncounterfeit-level knock-off. so, if you see the title and you see a picture, you might get fooled and you'll buy it and you won't know what you have.

typically, if you read the description, as long as it's an honest seller, he'll put in the description, this is a modern replica, or they'll use the word replica or they'll use the word similar to or something like that. as long as they do that and someone reads it, it's fine, but i'm sure a lot of people are buying these bags that look like they were made from the '60s and these other items that look like they were made from the '70s, thinking that they are, you know, vintage 30 to 40-year-old items. >> right. >> and the real word to look for is original, vintage, or the actual date of manufacture on the item. >> right, and it's a good reminder for everybody. and separate from that is kind of the issue of whether there is any problem with ebay giving this information to these chinese manufacturers in the first place. does anybody have an issue with that? >> i mean, this is -- what we're seeing is the down side of big data. i mean, this is, you know, this huge boom in these internet companies, data scientists who are able to mine things like never before, mine things about our consumer behavior, and in many cases, that's great. that's why you can find a task rabbit to do exactly what you want them to do and anticipate

your behavior. but you know, this also is creating fake goods. these are basically movie props. they're completely inauthentic. >> but as long as people know. if you wanted a pan am tote bag that seems to be the example out there today, as long as you know you're not buying the original item, does it matter if this is a replica, or isn't that filling a void in the market and just giving people the nostalgia that they want, regardless? >> i don't think it matters, but i think there's a gray area. i think a lot of people don't know that what they're buying is inauthentic. >> i guess my question -- >> not only that -- >> i would say, ken, we've known each other for quite a while now and we've talked a lot about the sports memorabilia market, but my question is, do you think there's a real impact on your business or anybody else who's selling authentic-type gear? >> i think it is zero impact on my business, zero impact on any of the high-end auction houses out there that sell the vintage,

authentic items. however, i do think for the casual customer, when you see a fake rolex or fake louis vuitton sold all the time and the buyer may know i'm buying it for 50 bucks, but what if they go to sell it and sell it as an original? that's when they run into problems. >> the casual buyer is a lot larger size of the market. it's a much bigger market than the expert, educated buyers. >> john? >> yeah, i mean. you give the customer what they want, right? it's just inventory taken to a new level. if there's 30 million people around the globe searching for a pan-am bag, those 30 million people probably don't think that it's a real pan-am bag. they just like the look of it, the feel of it. i'd rather have a new -- "new vintage" pan-am bag that will hold my stuff than a 40-year-old that you'll go to the airport and maybe it will fall apart. i think that's really what they're doing. so, ebay's just saying, okay, we

have searches on this item. would you like to -- you know, it's probably worth your while to manufacture it because we've had this many hits, for whatever reason. it might have shown up in a tv show or might have shown up in a movie or something. >> right. >> and somebody goes to search, but it's not out there readily available, and not everybody's a collector. so, i think this is not really for the collector-type person. this is really for somebody who wants -- >> and that is as long as they know. that's the central issue i think in this whole discussion is do you know what you're buying. and i guess if it seems like, wow, what a bargain and what great shape this bag is in that it looks like i'm buying, again, just bringing awareness to the issue that, yes, it's probably made in china with the vintage label slapped on it. >> exactly. if it seems too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true. it goes along with my philosophy on collectibles, as is as a whole -- typically, anything that's manufactured solely to be a collectible is not going to be worth a lot down the road, whether it's an original item or whether it's a replica item.

but when you're selling the replicas, the most important thing is that the sellers are accurately representing what they are selling so the consumer knows, hey -- >> especially if this is a tag sale -- >> i may not be able to afford this $40,000 item. >> we have to wonder about some of the other places or the person-to-person experiences that you may not know. >> some people pay things for millions of dollars that after somebody buys it, they realize, oh, it was a fake, it was a replica. >> sure. this happens in any market. >> but that's different compared to a $40 pan-am bag, you know? so, there's always going to be fraud i think when it comes to memorabilia, whether it's vintage or not. so, i think that's always going to be out there. especially with 3d printing now, it's probably going to get more prevalent. >> ken, do you think so? with 3d printing, more prevalent? >> i think it's very prevalent. i've seen crazy things where it looks like a signature and it's a stamped and recreated baseball. so, it's always going to be the buyer beware, and it's very important that when they manufacture items like this, i

would like to see them label them in some way to have some small stamp, date stamp or specific so people who aren't that sophisticated can know, oh, this was made in 2014, not in 1962. >> not a bad idea. ken, thank you. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. talk about a fight of epic proportions. amazon's ceo, jeff bezos, is taking on "captain america" and disney over dvd pricing. after taking on warner brothers and publicer hachette, has bezos met his match? and it was anything but a typical day at the amusement park, speaking of which, for riders stuck on a roller coaster in maryland for nearly five hours. despite incidents like this, theme park attendance has been red hot. coming up, why trips to america's playgrounds could mean the economy is doing better than you think. we'll be right back.

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hours yesterday. everyone was rescued safely, no reported injuries. disney, meanwhile, has been doing much better as their theme park revenue was up 8% in the second quarter. and a lot of people watching the economy think, well, as goes disney, maybe as goes the u.s. economy in general. so, let's ask diane swonk from mesirow financial, who joins us now with more. diane, do you think there's something to this? >> remember, disney raised prices back in february because it was such a horrific winter for so many of us and they had so many bookings, not only through the beginning of spring and spring break, but right on through the summer months, that they were able to raise prices in february instead of june. and so, disney in particular did see that shift and we did see a lot of that movement, which i think was pent-up demand from a horrendous winter, which spilled right over into summer. many people didn't take their vacations until they were through with school, which was later than usual also this year. >> so, what's the message from the theme parks then? >> well, i think we are seeing

some comeback. we have seen some comeback in travel in general, but that is, a bit of it is catch-up. we do have some underlying demand and have had good employment numbers. ironically, though, a lot of the employment numbers had been driven by leesure and hospitality, not as much the case in july. as much as it's building up and had been strong, it looks like it may be going through some sort of a peak as well as we get into the summer months and it will be interesting to see those july numbers, if they're revised up on the employment data and also what comes in august, if we're able to keep above that 200,000 level on unemployment, which i think we will. it is more jobs, but it's still not a lot of money, so people traveling to just close enough, and also, the discounts that the disneys that does do for people in the local area i think helps out as well. >> diane, you just hit on this here. i want to know, if i was an investor or trader, how important, how much weight should i assign to this data, anek to anecdotal or otherwise, if i

know this is cyclical. we know it's the summer months -- >> because it's a roller coaster. >> yeah, i see what you did there. but is it a roller coaster? do you know how to wait this if you know this is a seasonal type event? >> because i track that, the anecdotes from this winter and i know disney in particular was one of the big winners from the winter, i know that happened. i think it is important to think about, you know, not just the seasonal aspect to it, but also actually the unseasonably cold winter we had had an impact on how people reacted to it. we know we didn't sell any cars, we didn't have any mall traffic. a lot of foot traffic went down in the first quarter. we had a lot of bepent-up deman and we saw that released in the third quarter and some of that spilled over into the third quarter. so, i think you have to take it into context. but you're right, anecdotes are only anecdotes, and other theme parks aren't doing as well. so, clearly, there's some market share shifts going on here as well, and i always say, you know, when you're doing industry winners and losers, you could be

a winning industry and still be a loser -- you could be a winner in a losing industry. >> right, right. >> and that's, of course, your job to do, i guess. >> i wonder. lee, what do you think, is disney a luxury good? is it aspirational? is it middle class? >> i think it's a couple things. it's not cheap. the ticket price with the increases are $96 for anyone 10 or over. but i think a couple things are happening. number one, when you take people's spring break away from them, they come back in full force. they want it, they deserve it. >> that's right. >> number two, i do think this is a sign the economy's getting better, but i also think, you know, if you can't sell your home, if you're not looking at a raise, let's say you're employed, but things are just kind of status quo, a vacation to disney is sort of -- it's cheaper than a lot of other things, even though it can be expensive. and i even wonder, look, the way air b&b has changed hospitality, can people go to kissimmee, florida, and get a cheaper place to stay? it opens up possibilities that weren't there before. so, i think a number of things

are happening. but overall, i think this is a good sign. i think if we were in the depths of the recession and were still losing jobs the way we were, there's no way we would be seeing this. >> john, real quick. >> i think as we get away from the great recession, you can only nest for so long, so eventually, you do have to take a vacation. you have to take the kids out. you have to go somewhere. the fact that gasoline prices have really fallen quite dramatically is also a factor. >> it's got to help. >> if you charge gas prices to consumer discretionary, they'd kind of go in opposite directions. >> good point. diane, thank you for your thoughts this hour. while we're on the subject of disney, i want to ask the panel your thoughts on the dispute between disney and amazon. who comes out on top? >> i don't know. it doesn't seem easy to regulate prices on something. you should be able to charge what you want to charge for it and i think if you push back, that's fine, but eventually, free market forces end up taking over. >> you're betting with amazon, then? >> i agree. >> no, i just think that's part of their style right now is try to get -- they don't care what the price is as long as -- you know, their thing is all about delivery and that's where they make their money.

so -- >> i think amazon has flexed its muscles a lot lately, if you look at what's happening with authors, and i think it's only a matter of time before they go a step too far and see a serious consumer backlash. >> if you believe content is king, and we've been saying this concept for a while, you have to figure that those who really own the content that's in demand are going to eventually exert their channel over the distribution channels, which is in essence what amazon is. >> although both with authors it is a content producer now. >> i know. that's what makes it so complicated to watch. you may want to sit down for this. uber bear marc faber says a surge in stocks is under way. after a recent sell-off. the story is all the buzz on wall street. coming up, see if it's steaming up the "hot list." plus, details in an alarming new study about parents prioritizing saving for college tuition over their own retirement. we'll be right back. about speeds and feeds. it's all about latency. it's all about how fast does it run.

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welcome back. let's begin with bertha coombs and a "market flash." bertha? >> hi, kelly. sprouts farmers market shares are getting hit after hours. 15 million of its shares are being sold by shareholders, including apollo global management. the stock currently trading down right now by about 3.5%, it looks like there. back to you. >> hmm, all right, bertha. thank you. welcome back to the "closing bell," a quiet monday for the markets, but a lot of buzz on the web. let's get a check on what's heating up our website with the

site's managing editor, allen wastler. hi, allen. >> we are leading with a story written by dominic chu, up there next to you. his look at the most beaten-down large-cap stocks, a nice story he did. people will eating it up right now because they're looking for winners and losers. we find in these quiet august days, people start going through their portfolios and saying, should i keep it, should i check it out? so, dominic's story falls right into that category. number two on the "hot list" today, the tony stewart story, which everybody's been talking about. if you haven't heard, tony stewart, race car driver, he hit kevin ward on a dirt track yesterday and there's a lot of debate about was it intentional, not intentional. that aside, we took a look at what sponsors are doing in reaction to that. it looks like right now they're sticking with him for the most part. but he represents like bass pro shops and mobile 1, so we've asked them, and so far, they're staying the course. and number three is jane wells's tale about two buck chuck. that's the cheap wine sold at

trader joe's. a huff post blog post came out implying it has a lot of bad stuff in it. they've since taken that blog post down. she interviewed the owner. and it's a fascinating look at the wine business. >> and also afascinating look at the media business, isn't it? the way they got picked up from a response on quartkabora to a that looked legitimate on huff post to something people are picking up on, and the guy making the two buck chuck is like, what are they talking about? >> to me, being in the business of internet media and stuff being picked up and not going through a journalistic process like we do very much here, it was fascinating to me on that level, too. >> last question, too, what was this called by marc faber? >> oh, marc faber, it's a sign of the apocalypse. he was actually kind of cheerful this morning. we wrote it up and that story rocketed this morning. it cooled down in the afternoon a little bit and was superseded by dom's wonderful piece on large caps. >> all right, allen. thank you. we ask here because john doesn't like marc faber's bullishness,

that's right? a contrarian sign? >> bulls like to be alone. >> yeah. do they really, though? >> yes. >> is bulls even -- okay. dom -- >> we don't like a lot of company. >> you're at the top. >> you know, it's interesting, because like you said, there are so many times when investors and institutions alike, you try to find that next idea, and this was a simple screen. hey, if you wanted to buy on the dip, which stocks have been beaten down the most? not to say that you should -- >> can you off hand give us the top three? what is the percentage decline? >> just percentage declines from their most recent highs. so, stocks in correction territory, down 10% or more, or in bear market territory, down 20% or more. >> wow. >> at the top of that list, bertha just did a market flash on sprouts having a secondary offering. well, the worst stocks on the s&p is whole foods, down about 42%. peaked in october of last year. >> also, the short interest is big. you combine that with how much they're down and then you get a

real feel for what's going to happen. >> what would top your list? >> i think whole foods. tesla is a perfect example. when the stock was in the 50s, the short interest was 34 days. u.s. steel recently the same thing. blackberry, people talk about that every now and again. >> bargain hunters love trying to pick bottoms, right? so, these are the ones that are making bottoms or trying to make bottoms. maybe they're falling knives, you don't know, but this is a way to highlight who they are. >> high short interest, high free cash flow and a good theme, i think you're safe. >> thank you, guys. up next, a scary new study on the state of retirement savings in the u.s. nearly 40% of all parents are prioritizing college savings over their own retirement. up next, find out how families can right the financial ship while helping their kids pay for school. also, sales at dominos keep surging while americans lose their taste for arch rival pizza hut. what is behind dominos's recipe for success?

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welcome back. with college students prepping their return to campuses across the country, it's time to open

the books for our features school days, the rising cost of insurance. we're focusing today on the single-parent family. studies finding a staggering 45 of parents surveyed says saving for my kids' education is their greatest inspiration. joining us, welcome you both. louis scatigna and katie, a higher proportion of single parents relative to two headed households, whatever you'd call them say their biggest priority is saving for their kids' education? >> yes, that's true. it was the biggest motivator, too, behind them actually saving for long-term goals. that's good news, it's also good news 21% of single parents have started a 529 or college savings program. >> right. i guess, louis the problem is

are they doing it at the expense of their own retirement savings. if so, how much of a problem is that? >> first, i believe the headline and conclusion of the study may be a little misleading. the average single parent family here is $85,000. single parent families make below the poverty line. so very few single parent families are saving for college or retirement. now, having said that i think the difference between single parent families and traditional families lies in the income. the average income of the traditional family in this study is $113,000, that's $18,000 more than the single parent. so to think there is some kind of a psychological or a different feeling between that single parents want to take care of the kids better or give them a better life different than traditional families, i don't think that's the case. >> louis, i don't think that's what anybody is saying. i think what they're saying is exactly your point single parent households don't have the mean

itself, so they're forced to make choices in which they're prioritizing their kids' education over their own retirement savings. am i reading that right, katie? >> i think that's exactly the point. single parents do focus on family first. so 37% of them admit the price of sacrificing my own financial future because i'm placing my kids first just due to the fact that college is going to come before their own retirement. i think that's the message behind the study. >> lee, what else? >> also, adding to that, is that the cost of college is skyrocketing so much. but i think one of the most interesting things about this study was the way that it really broke family household times down into six different cohorts. it wasn't single families or dual families, it was oler parent families, single person households living alone, which is one of the fastest growing demographic boom rang householding, they have come back. >> so the notion of the nuclear

same sex couples, the notion of the nuclear family is it's going out the window. it's gone out the window. i think that's one of the biggest forces transforming our society in long-term ways. i think this is just the beginning. this is a great example of what we are seeing. >> does it raise that all households are in worse shape relative to the nuclear family or is it the case with the traditional families? >> the two-person families with kids, they are doing marginally better than all the other family types that we studied. some better than others. same sex couples spriegzly are doing really well in terms of savings for retirement and in terms of having an ad advisor helping them meet their long-term goals and other families like multi-jen rarnl households are struggling more. but back to the single parent households, i think that there is a theme that families are

talking more about money with their kids and i think this bodes very well for people that are saving for their kids' education. >> the kids have to provide for their retirement the parents' retirement, john. >> i hope they get a good job. a student is saying right now everybody is living at home because they have such high student loan burdens. they can't buy a house. so they can't trade up. so there is a lot of things go into this. i think that might be one of the reasons single parent families feel so much angst it's obviously the news. >> we got to go, last word to you. >> i think that, i think that people with that kind of income in this survey 113,000 for a traditional family. 85 for single parent family, they should be able to prioritize themselves, save for both college and retirement. their money is going elsewhere, it's going for new cars, big homes. i think they're doing it wrong they need to re-prioritize college and retirement.

>> i agree with that. >> yes. >> i think it's the second and 3rd and fourth and 5g9. let's send it to bertha coombs with a quick market flash. >> trial data out of intercept. this is companies working on a treatment for fatty liver disease which often occurs in people who are overweight and obese. it's sort of like for people for non-alcoholic reasons. it's one of the leading causes of liver failure. they met good end points a. couple analysts we tried to call are on that call. in fact, can you see very encouraging data on that. this is something that affects a lot of people, increasingly, kelly, as we've seen a lot more children who are obese. it affects children as well. >> bertha, thank you, intercept strengths again. >> yeah, i think that it's been wild since they came out with the news about six months ago that they had a great study out of new york, huge short

interest, very volatile. i think it's not surprising. >> up $88 bucks after hours. up next, can the momentum carry over to tomorrow? some final thoughts before we go. see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running.

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welcome back. president obama is set to speak in martha's vineyard any moment. john harwood joins us now with some of the details. john, are we going to see the president? >> reporter: i think we are grand jury to see the president. i think what we will see him say is make a reference to the political transition we may be on the verge of if iraq. though it's not certain because the iraqi president has asked a new government to form a go. nuri al maliki says he is not going anywhere. whether we get the political clang the president says is necessary to turn around the advance of isis. he's said the campaign is not going to be sufficient to do that, but that's where we are right now. >> all right. our john harwood keeping an eye on that for us. thank you very much. president obama due to speak any minute now in our situation in iraq. thanks, to my panel this afternoon. >> that does it here on closing bell. we got "fast money" with sarah

eisen, sitting in for melissa lee. as we handle it off to her, we are looking at a dow jones industrial average up only about 16 points, the nasdaq up 30. the s&p 500 up only about 5. "fast money" begins right now. [ music playing ] >> "fast money," "fast money" start right now, live from the fax markets site in new york's time's square, i'm sarah eisen in for melissa lee. our traders, tim seymour, dan nathan, karen feinerman and steve nagerian, stocks closing higher today, near session lows as geopolitical uncertainty in russia and iraq keep many investors on edge. so, dan, can you trust this rally? >> i'm not certain. we had a nice pullback on a short-term basis. i don't think they were reasons that american investors like to sell stocks that are geopolitical. we have to remember we are off a low based volaty