welcome to "street signs", everybody. brian is out on assignment today, and is the numbers today got us thinking about the state of the u.s. consumers. throughout the show we'll be talking about each sector that relates to what we buy or maybe what we aren't buying. even health care, to see how you the consumer is faring. let's kick it off at the mall of one major retailer waving a huge red flag. courtney reagan, what on earth happened with macy's? >> it hasn't been a great summer

or year for retailers, even the stronger ones. but the department store's second quarter earnings fell six cents short of consensus, revenue slightly below expectation. while it did reiterate the full-year forecast, it lowered expectation for the full year. macy's said the issue is a broader bun, both the ceo and cfo saying that many consumers are still not feeling comfortable about spending more in an uncertain economic environment, with economic perceptions dictating behavior. we talk about the economy recovers, but if we don't feel it, it doesn't become real for us. >> thank you very much for the update. stick around. we want to deeper. we have an all-star retail panel in place.

to all of you, great to have you with us. i want to start with you, mary. you like it, dan likes it. both of you have said that many times. if this is happening with macy's what does it mean for the rest of the sector? >> i think a couple things. number one, like everybody else they saw late business due to the weather, even though we don't like to blame it. there was also a shift in some of the biggest businesses we saw in men's shoes -- i wouldn't count them out. they have the strongest e-mer and digital strategy than anyone out there. we still think that macy's and j.c. penney will forge ahead for fall. >> do you think, jan, it makes us change our assumptions about some of the other retailers. we have big names reporting, j.c. penney's among them. >> i'm a little moyer about wart mart reporting, since mayy's

said they were down 30 basis points on gross margin. that tells me how promotional things are out there. i think they're the best. and when they're down 30 basis points on gross margins, that means the promotion was strong. they were a little hyped into the first quarter, they succeeded in getting down to where they wanted to be, so they've moved that tonnage, but it's worrying me that if it's that stuff for macy's, it's tough for everybody. clearly the second quarter was better, and i think the second quarter in general is better, but i do think we have to be very cautious about where we're going to send the second quarter. having said that's correct i am conventioned the back of this year will see the best in the last five years, we're going to see a strong back half and it's already started with back to school. >> david, i want to bring you in, because jan just brought up walmart. i understand already you are

lowering the estimates for the report that it's coming out with tomorrow. >> i did lower my numbers. you have wage growth that's weak. you know, i kind of think jan is right on the apparel side, there is probably more opportunity there into the back half of the year, but i'm just generally worried. i do mostly the hard goods, the broad line retails, and i'm nervous as the year goes on about what's going on happen. maybe there's some opportunities around christmas and stuff, but we have a tough consumer out there. there's a lot of hope, but i think reality keeps me worried. >> speaking of reality, i'm just wondering what you think is going on with the consumers. what do you think the main problem is going on with consumers? >> i think those are all good

points, and i think that incremental spending matters, but once again wage growth has been tepid. it's been very skewed towards the higher end so the middle customer and low-end customer continues to be very -- continues to struggle. housing has been pretty bad. that is a being driver of sales at a lot of these retailers. so you've got a lot of things going against them with a lot of auto sales that have been so strong. those monthly payments continue for a long time. >> very good points, david. mary, i want to get back to back to school. what is it going to look like? who is going to win? and who is going to lose out? >> we've been doing surveys among teens and we're seeing a couple things. there's renewed interest in apparel, which jan highlightedivities triggered by what? remember the colored denim, gap was blooming with colored denim, what have we got this year that's the must-have? >> different proportions in

apparel, high-waisted denim and medium sized waisted denim, thanks the '80s and crop tops. we saw the customers wearing it in shorts and skirts for the spring and definitely see it especially over last year. the second thing is there's more interest in boots and booties than ever before. we think in shoes that's where the interesting will be, but overall, according to our surveys, abercrombie and urban are the two interesting brands. >> abercrombie is back? >> if you believe these girls. we surveyed them in seven major cities. we were surprised to hear it and we didn't give them any prompting. those are the two top brands. >> macy's said today on the call that early indications are both juniors and the athletic wear category, the sales are very strong. so she was encouraged early on. >> what are some of the

actionable advice pieces you could give someone out there. with regards to the retail environment? >> actionable advice, i still think owning macy's when it draws back is always a good idea. i'm still a fan of walmart. i think that walmart solving the internet problem, if you will, the omnichannel efforts, i think walmart has that figured out. i think the new manage has figured it out. i he whattants to go back on competing on price and being in stock with a broad range of products, but he's very focused on winning the omnichannel business. i like walmart. i was just in both abercrombie and urban outfitters, yes, they still look better. i think it's so competitive with forever 21, and all the things than happening out there. but both of them do look a lot

better. so it's a tough environment. >> it is a very tough environment. david, do you agree with what jan just said, and do you want to add any names to the mix? >> costco,, you know in all of the weakness and struggles out there, these guys continue to get 4%, 5% traffic growth day in and day out. their value proposition, that consumer is loving their value proposition. they've had some other shies that i think they're coming through, which is related to currency, oil prices, and stuff that's hurt their earnings the last year or so, but they've got strong traffic. in this day and age, when everyone is trueling for traffic, as sales move online, these guys are getting people to come to the story day in and day out. >> i have a 2-gallon jug of cost wo brownies that i can't seem to give them away. >> just eat them. >> thank you, mary, courtney, david and jen. our consumer health check continues up.

next, away from the retail stores to the car lot to see if car buyers are in serious need of a tune-up. later on why americans have lost their appear tide for candy and french fries. all of that when we return.

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phil lebeau, what are car sales telling us about the state of the consumer? >> they're telling you the consumer is very confident right now and is going back into the showroom, and has no problem spending more money than ever before when it comes to buying a new car or truck. the average transaction price is somewhat over $31,000, depending on which service you subscribe to. when you look at what people are buying right now, mandy, they clearly are trading up, because they want technology, they want connectivity and also stretching out their loans over a longer period of time, because they're trying to get a lower monthly payment or the lowest possible, typically under $3500 a month. what you're seeing is consumer confidence is strong, that's driving a lot of sales in the showroom. there's a direct correlation, as consumer confidence goes, usually that's the direction of auto sales. >> it's interesting, just a moment ago, we were talking about how tepid the u.s. consumer is with regards to macy's et cetera, but they're

willing to open their wallets for big ticket items like a car? >> for a lot of people, they went a long time not buying a new vehicle. >> so pent-up demand? >> that pent-up demand is still there. the average vehicle is over 11 years old in the united states. 20% of the vehicles are over 16 years old. if you buy a 1998 vehicle now, you still have a cd player if there, maybe even a cass et, and you might be looking at why am i driving this when everybody has connectivi connectivity, listening to pandora, have the latest features, and at some point you say enough is enough. >> it mike retrocool, but what percentage of those loans are subprime? i understand this is back, and this is deja vu. >> it's back, and it is growing. however, there seems to be this concern out there that my goodness, the sky is falling, all of these subprime loans --

you know the average charge-off on a bad long? about $8500, that's less in 2008, about where it was in 2007, nowhere close to where it was in 2009. is it worth watching? yes, but is the sky falling right now? nope. >> phil, let's head to the front lines of what's happening with the car industry to see how the consumer is doing there. joining us is tammy darvish, she manages 34 franchises in the washington, d.c. area. great to have you with us, good to always have a sort of cliff face sort of feeling on what the consumer is doing. are car sales getting better for you? >> sure. this year alone, we expect to sell about 1 million more retail new vehicles than or industry did last year, so yes, sales are up >> they're up, and you expect them to improve? >> yes, we expect, particularly moving towards the end of third quarter into fourth quarter of the year, we're expecting a much bigger increase than we saw in

q1 and q2 this years. >> what type of cars are people going for these days? >> i think there's a lot of choice and a lot of variety out there, but i think what consumers are mostly focused on today is the technology and connectivity, but they're also very focused on making decisions that are more practical, more logical than emotional, whereas, you know in the past maybe purchasing decisions of vehicles were more emotion-based, more logic-based, that's what we're sigh in our showroom. when you say more practical, you say they're not necessarily downsizing, but they might be what you call decontenting, you know, just keeping it real simple to getting what they need as opposed to what they want? >> yes, and there's a sense that frugality is sort of cool now and hip, and it's not as much of a status thing that you have to have the biggest and best, you know, the most equipped. quite frankly, a lot of people are relying more so on their

smartphones than a lot of technology than they were able to in the past. >> some auto makers were counting on the hip or the green car, but we're going to be talking about gas prices, which just seem to be, you know, holding steady and going lower over time. does that take away the urgency for people to get a green car, if you like? >> absolutely. gas prices have been very stabilized. hybrid technology has been in our market i guess a little over 14 years and still only represents less than 4% of our total overall sales. so americans haven't quite migrated to that type of technology in droves. >> less than 4%. >> do you expect that to get higher or lower in the next couple years? >> i think it will be contingent on gas prices and incentive, tax incentives, tax credits, federal

and state. hov requirements. sometimes with they green technologies, one person in a vehicle can take advantage of hov lanes, for example, on highways. so there's a lot of different reasons why people invest in that kind of technology. >> when people come into your business, tammy, and standing in the car lot and discussing what type of car they want, do they talk to you about what might be holding them back? maybe wage gains in the near future? also some that is holding the consumer back? >> well, i think that consumers -- we have a lot of credit availability today, but the quality of the vehicle is so much better today than it had been in years past. cars are lasting longer, warranties on vehicles are longer, so i think a lot of purchase decisions, they're looking at things holistically, the total cost of ownership, not just purchasing the car, but the

cost of maintenance thank you. >> tammy, great of you to join us. thank you. perhaps a big bright spot for the u.s. consumer is what we are talking about a moment ago, gas prices. dedispute the ongoing turmoil, prices have fallen every week since the beginning of july. 3.46 is now the average according to aaa. where are prices headed from here? patrick, a couple weeks ago we had a gentleman on the show we could even be sub-$3 a gallon? wow, that would be something. is that something you see as well? >> short term it's something we could see between, say, thanksgiving and christmas. that's something that gas prices really among their yearly lows during that time frame, but long term, i still think the $3 are here to stick around, at least in the summer.

we have seen good news with a rise in domestic crude production. that has helped us avoid some of those $4 like we saw back in to 08. long term, it still looks good. we're bronning online a lot of new production. that's helping out american motorists here, especially this year when we're seeing a surprising trend that gas prices have actually been on the decrease since june. >> you're absolutely right, but what could be the bump in the road? what could spike us back up if not a hurricane? >> a lot of it depends on the economy not only here in the united states, especially what happens overseas. will oil demand continue to grow? will it come back faster? demand is really something that could derail a temporary respite. chinese demand has continued to nick, being the global motto has been increasing fuel efficiency as your previous guests have

talked about. it really will depend on how quickly that happens globally. whether or not we see demand rise, that could derail things. >> there was a forecast today, $3.30 is what they are predicting for the national average for regular by december. would you agree with that? >> sill do i think prices will generally be on the decline between now and the year. certainly geopolitical situation and hurricanes could be a wild cards. we have some -- aside from all these temporary issues, the general down trend will remain in place i think for the next couple months. >> more money in our pockets again. thank you, patry. america's addition to candy getting crushed. no we're not talking food. and what shamu says about the state of the consumer. we'll be back right after this break.

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consumers given up on this kind of gaming? do you think it's aindustrywide problem, or is it personal to them? >> it shows that they're having problem with the key franchise. they were so relipt on candy crush, but it does not say anything about the health of the other kind of video games, the traditional business. also yesterday, as king came out with its disappointing news, we had act vision announce the new title called destiny is the most preordered new game in gamestop history, on track to sell about 20 million units this year. it just goes to show that consumers are willing to spend on games when they feel like they're getting their money's worth. we also just saw that sony's new placestation 4 hit a new record, over 10 million units. people are willing to spend when it comes to the right kind of game. >> very important point. we need to separate the traditional gaming instrument and these sort of new mobile

social game space players. why do you think they're different? >> king and zynga are a couple key issues. they're reliant on a couple key franchises, and very low barriers to entries. people are going to ditch candy crush and play the kim kardashian game, so low barriers to entry and effectively they're free games that the game makers have to convince you to spend to play on them. you know if you're buying a console game, you'll get your money's worth and may even spend for a little extra digital content. it's a challenge to convince people and a large number of people to spend on that type of game. >> so -- >> exactly, king and zynga are one type of gaming company, but

don't confuse them. in fact the opposite has turned out to be the case. >> indeed, thank you very much. certainly things have been turning their heads a bit in terms of expectation. let's hit the "pause" button in just a moment for the consumer check. five of the biggest stocks that need to be on your radar as they have a nice rally. we'll give you an update on the markets when we come back, after the break. what if there was a credit card where the reward was that new car smell and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one. redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no limits. so every time you use it, you're not just shopping for goods. you're shopping for something great.

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today. a nice upgrade over to buy at stifel nicolaus. they're raising their price target. they have noticed interesting trends with the company. they were saying now is a period of innovation driven by consumer and regulatory demand, but they also say there's secular demographic issues, means people are moving outside of major metropolitan areas, but still interesting move up, a nice move higher. >> it is indeed, up by about 15% over the past six months. let's look at jd uniphase, getting a downgrade. >> this is on the heels of their earnings report. they came out with a forecast that was a bit lighter than expectations. you can see hire piper jahv jaf. there is also concern overjaw about whether big telecom

companies are going to continue to spendty clip they have been. >> over the last year. >> okay. cree getting a downgrade. >> also a -- leds, right. all those fancy ones that go into flashlights. apparently now because against on the heels of an earnings-related report, also the forecast coming up, analysts are saying this is not the most robust situation for cree. also getting a price target cut. 15% price target over at clsa. >> and it's been tough for their shares, down about 40% in one year. the southern company also getting a downgrade at morgan stanley. >> the firm is saying they believe that southern will deliver a small earnings growth forecast and still has an overhang. they've got about 13% down side. they cut their price target to

we'll call it $40 from $46 before, this is interesting. we talk about utilities all the time. over the past year these companies, or this share is still down about 2% over the course of the last 12 months. reply flat there. you know we always under on a -- >> under the radar. >> yes. it's only we may have to have a certain minimus, but it's got 612 million market cap, so just squeezes in. fuel solar energy. >> this is interesting. with fuel cell, we're talking about alternative batteries. fuelcell shares have been up about 89% over the course of the past year, but the firm that upgraded there is cowen, they cited advances in a stationary fuelcell power plant, so some infrastructure things are helping to provide some tail

bind wind. but the roller coaster ride you can see there. it's below $2.5 at current levels. >> dom fator, thank you very much. let's get the "talking numbers" out there. seaworld, the stock is down more than 30% today alone. posted weaker than expected earnings gentlemen, great to have you with us. tim, what is the fundamental side you are looking at with seaworld. >> sure. the question is whether something that is changed. since they've been public, they've had a few quarters of misses on the attendance, and there have been always been one-time items that were acceptable explanation. this time around there's an extra wrinkle to the story, first off they're acknowledging higher competition from disney, secondly talking about some

negative press hurting their attendance in san diego. first time you've heard either of these mentioned. that's driving the negative pressure. >> do you think it's justified? it's something that's warranted? do you see them turning around any time soon, tim? >> it's difficult to say at this point there were a number of factors. the complied ebitda guidance cut is 15% lower than it was previously, and complied something like a 20% put, so that's a pretty strong gap between the implied earning difference and what the stock is reflecting. we're still working through numbers. there's a lot of things to keep in mind. how much of these things are passing, and they announced a cost savings program and share buyback program, and they'll reinnocence -- so there's a number of factors that will work

back in. >> speaking of gaps. gaps are important what does this do technically? did this thing still have further to go? >> this is a pretty damageling breakdown. i would look at too late to sell, but too early to buy. to try to speculate on trying to buy it now, i think the odds are just stacked against me. i think it will likely take months, if not quarters of backing and filling until the stock can build a base. i want to see strong hands accumulating this stock. until then, i think balances are going to be short-lived and i'm avoiding this stock tiismts right. caught between a rock and hard place. thank you very much to both of you for joining us on seaworld. you can also check out the online edition in partnership with yahoo finance. we've been talking a lot on today's show about the consumer and what choices they're making,

but there is also a corporate choice, and many companies are choosing to reincorporate overseas to lower the tax bill. where exactly are they going? michelle caruso-cabrera has been looking around the world at all the hot spots. what have you found, madam? >> going to the uk. let's go through the numbers and explain why it's happening. first, when you look at the members of the oecd, these are advanced countries, let's go all the wait to the left here, the united states has the highest combined corporate tax rate. that means federal, local, et cetera, 39.1% japan is about to lower theirs, all the way down to luxembourg. who had the lower rates? the magic wand, police. ireland. 12.5%, way down here. the united kingdom is still relatively high, 21%. still the most popular for three

reasons -- language, law, location. hedges this graphic we made here. they speak english, duh, so a lot easier for a u.s. company. law, they do a couple things that are important, such as taxing intellect why will property revenue at a lower rate and properties at a lower rate, which is why we see a lot of pharmaceutical companies doing this, and also location getting to london is easy, and where in the world would you want to go if you're an executive and have to go somewhere? walgreens purposely did not do an inversion, because they were worried about the back lash they may see from consumers, but we also have it going on with avi. the united kingdom is the biggest. >> so of the recent deals that we've been seeing, what percentage would you say have been involved with ireland? >> i was speaking to a corporate tax executive, he says 50% of

the ones we have seen in the last 18 months. >> so crazy, it used to only be pharmaceutical companies or biotech companies. >> because of the intellectual property issue. >> but now even chiquita, they were trying to buy another produce producers in ireland, so it's not just pharma. >> it depends on how much you want to invest in the united states. you're a u.s. company here and you want to invest $is 00 million that you have to repatriate? guess what, only $70 million will make it into the economy. if you relocate and put $100 onin, it's $100 on? it's per verse the way it actually -- >> you bring up a big point. it's about the dollars housed i don't ultimate side the u.s. there's so much cash, billions that if you bring back to the u.s., you take the one third cut off the top. >> that's absolutely true. we do have tragic news today

and i wanted toss your thought. statistic brazilian candidate campos, what does it mean? >> eduardo campos was never believed to win, he was in third place, but the result of his death is complete and total disarray, because the question is, where do his votes go? >> neves? >> we don't know. i just got off a conference call with another investor group that said, no, they think it will go to rusev, and then does his vice presidential candidate actually assume the mantel. >> mike novograss, one of the his top picks, he said it's so bad it's got to be good, and that was predicated on a regime change. >> for brazil, i think so, absolutely. >> i think the market has had quite a run since march.

>> as r. sev's numb bess got lower, the market went higher. >> we'll just have to keep a watch. >> a completely volatile day in brazil today. >> thank you very much, michelle. thank you very much, dom as well. a former staple of the american diet is falling out favor. we're going to tell you what people are not eating, but where they are eating. consumer choices at restaurants is coming up your way, next. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 searching for trade ideas that spark your curiosity tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 can take you in many directions. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you read this. watch that. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you look for what's next. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 our live online workshops tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like identifying market trends. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. call 1-888-628-2419 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 sharpen your instincts with market insight from schwab

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coming up on "closing bell", kellie, what have you found? >> mandy, that's the question. it was already raised by a slew of weak retail earnings report. now the report this morning broadly speaking that tells us as well there's something alling the u.s. consumer, at least relative to the consumer we think we know from the past. the question is whether this amounts to difficult income growth, the economic environment or whether there's some spottyness out there, because we're spending in different ways, payable on that mobile phone bill, maybe on amazon. maybe just on a bunch of health

care-related items that we should start to think about as more consumer oriented discretionary spending. these are all big questions. they have a lot of people thinking and a lot of difference opinions. there's even still people who say it's the summer polar vortex that's ailing sales, but there's something going on. >> if in doubt, blame the weather. thank you very much, kelly. >> looking forward to it. in today's hard money we're not talking gold, copper, or even grains. we're talking potatoes. reports say they have cut their consumption by a quarter since peaking back in 1996. apparently we're cooking less, so we're not taking the time, also diets like the south beach diet have been making us all, myself included, anti-carb, so if we're cooking less, where are we dining? bob, do you have an answer to

that hard question? >> thanks for starting me on of with a soft-day-old bomb. when i step back, these restaurant companies are trying to hit a moving targets. we like to generalize about the the strata that makes up the consumer base, but literally consumers are all over the place. they're skeptical about the promotional offerings. they're skeptical about are gas prices going to stay down or go back up again? i think there's real conservatism that's very different from five years ago. unfortunately they restaurant companies are struggling to hit the bull's-eye of the target. >> maybe you can help explain the disconnect. increasingly seer a -- i know there's some perm stations and combinations out there, but nonetheless those gains are not translating into people eating

out more. >> consumers want to dine out more. if you ask a typical consumer, do you have more time now than you did a year ago? i think they would sigh no way, i'm pressed for time, i've got to find economies in both the time that i spend and in the money that i spend, and i think restaurants are trying to change what they do to try to meet those demands. >> what's working? what are they changing it to and from? what's working? >> now that's a different question. for example, an olive garden is trying to make food more portable, more expeditious experience, they're trying to do things -- some of the things that fire and help consumers are within the fast casual business. if you like at what chipotle does, for example, the reason they have the industry's same-store sales recently, is

because they have found the right combination of food, price, xik expeditious service that rings home. those companies who can't do that, they're left on the, you know, waiting at the starting block, you know, trying to find the answer. >> bring us into back to what it means for the -- for the restaurant industry. what do you? what do you not like? >> i would say pick carefully, october? if i look at our research universe, the majority of names are rated as hold, partly because the operating trends have been so volatile, you know, trying to again guess where consumers are going to dine and make it work for a restaurant company, the bottom line and stock price performance. for example one of our favorite names is buffalo wild. they put a tremendous same-store sales number and earnings grow in the month of july. the stock was pun you should because the expectations going

forward wasn't quite as perfect, so i would say with the stock pullback, that's one we like a lot of red robin is a casual dining company that i consider to be a specialist,'s opposed to a jack-of-all-trades like much of the, you know, the industry that's trying to do a lot of different things. they do burger really well. i think that serves them well. that's why their sales have dramatically outperformed the whole industry. >> red robin and buffalo wild wing. thank you, bob darington. next topic is health care. what choices do we make? and why are a number of enrollees deciding not to pay up? that's right after the break.

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so, today's show is all about the american consumer and the choices that we make about what to buy and where to eat. and now some big companies are finding that the best way to control health care costs is to leave it in the hands of the consumer. bertha coombs, can you explain that for us? >> yeah, big companies like all

of our employers. 2015 could be the year of the employee as health care consumer. get ready for employers to ask you to pay a bigger role when it comes to reining in costs. once again, it's going to mean more cost-shaving on premiums, more out-of-pocket costs, according to a survey out today of large employers from the national business group on he did, and a bigger shift to lower-premium plans with higher deductibles. more than half of large employers say they're going to offer more of these plans next year, while a third say that high deductible plans will be the only options they offer in 2015, and they will push new online pricing tools to help point us to qualified but more cost-conscious providers. >> employers are looking to put their employees in the driver's seat. they're arming them with decision support tools, with more health care shopping resources, which is really an

attempt to give employees more visibility to what health care costs really look like. >> and firms like comcast, our parent company, are turning to major insurers to price and quality transparency tools to help us shop for providers who offer the best pricing for the same care. in some cases, they're providing rewards and incentives to be more cost-conscious. it's going to be a big theme you can expect this fall. read more about it on cnbc.com. >> thank you very much. thanks, bertha. okay, so, what about the consumers who are newly enrolled in an obamacare plan? it looks like a very large number of them are now making another choice. upner expects more than 80% of its new enrollees to decide not to pay the money for the premiums. others are also seeing erosion. what's it say about the future of obamacare? with us is dan mendelson and ovig roy of the manhattan institute. thank you for joining us.

i would imagine we would expect always a certain amount of attrition, so, is there anything in these headlines that makes you worry? >> yeah, i would say the amount of attrition we're seeing is about in line. i think we all expected 2% to 3% a month, pretty standard with these kinds of plans. the question is who's dropping out? if it's primarily healthy and younger people who have decided these plans aren't a good deal for them, then we might start to worry. we don't have that data just yet. >> when will we have that data? >> probably in the next six months or so we'd start to see what the premiums are being charged by these insurers to reflect how they're seeing the market evolve in terms of who is signing up and who's dropping out. >> dan, do we have any idea why people are dropping out, for example, because their finances are stretched? because they changed plan. have they suddenly got a new health plan through their employer? the reasons for dropping out would be important, i would imagine. >> yeah, it's all of these reasons and i think you have some people who are eligible for a different benefit. if their income comes down, they might be eligible for medicaid.

if they get a job, they might have employer coverage and some people are just able to afford the premiums. one of the important things is there is a three-month grace period so that these consumers might actually be incurring costs that the insurers or providers are going to get stuck with. >> do you think we see any light at end of the tunnel? do you think the attrition rate might drop off a little bit? dan? >> i do think so, and i think the other important point is that this is a stable benefit. so, for the companies that are provider this benefit, there are about 8 million people who enroyed, about 2% to 3% attrition and it will stabilize out. then you'll start to see more people signing up for next year. >> do you agree, it will stabilize out and maybe we'll see more sign-ups next year? >> thus far, the data we have, and it varies by state, is that the increase in premiums for 2015 is roughly in line for most states miles per ho states.

some states it's not, it's 15%, but some states are 7% to 8%, which is enough to keep the markets going and look for higher enrollment next year. >> you've been looking at the issue of proof of immigration status. we know the government has sent urgent notices to about 310,000 people, saying they need to provide immigration or citizenship data or they'll lose their coverage by the end of the month. >> again, it's another variable that's hitting out there. i think the most important thing the consumers need to understand is that they're going to need to shop around, because the averages can really not shape their own personal experience, and it could be that your plan is slated for a 25% premium increase, whereas another plan in the market will be less expensive. so it will be important for people to shop around. >> dan and ovik, thank you very much for joining us. >> thank you. coming up next, the one place where we're really putting our money. she's still the one for you.

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regained positive territory for the year with today's gains. on that note, i'm going to hand you over to kelly and tyler. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm tyler mathisen in for bill griffeth in englewood cliffs. we're watching a stock market that right now is, as mandy just pointed out, in positive territory, on track for one of its best weeks in the past couple months with the dow industrials up about 83 points. also on today's show, congress bolts for summer vacation without reauthorizing the controversial export-import bank, and now the person who runs the back is speaking out. fred hochberg is here in a first on cnbc interview in just a little while. and then after the bell, cisco is out with results. the john chambers-led company