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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 18, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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with crumbs by thursday afternoon. >> you had your chance right here. michael? >> stay in dividends. don't sell yet. >> you have ten seconds. >> okay, fine. thank you very much to everybody for being here. that does it for us on closing bell. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in "new york times" square. i'm sarah eisen in for melissa lee. our traders are peat and guy adami. apple closing in on $100 a share. we've got the details on a new study just released ahead of apple's new iphone 6 launch. today's top story, the running of the bull. stock rallying on news out of russia and ukraine. oil falling to a near seven-month low. are there any red flags that could derail this rally? pete? >> well, i think the only red flags out there obviously are news based because when you look at the way the markets are trading without ukraine, without some of the things going on
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globally we can see exactly what the markets want to do. they want to go higher. look at the big cap techs. microsoft, ibm, intel. the risks are still there. folks are willing to have risks on the table. look at the amazon, facebook, netflix, twitter. when you see oil going down, transports moving to the up side, there are so many movements in the marketplace. the participation is broad, very strong. i think without some of this negative news in the marketplace right now there's nothing but up side. we could easily get to 2,000 but that's all based on the news. >> you mentioned transports. nasdaq we should mention ended at the highest level since 2000. do you like the technology group? >> i do, but i think to pete's point, you never short a dull market, right? i think that's what we're seeing now. we're in the latter stages of summer. we have 7 breaches of 100 today. i don't think we saw anything different here. we saw the same setup technically. can we go higher?
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i think so short term. >> deflation is the red flag, right? >> good to have you on board, by the way. i knew you had to get the deflation thing in there. if you look at global interest rates it's pointing towards something much stronger. geopolitical risk in the last 24 hours, i don't know if that's a red flag. the only possible red flag to me is a slowdown in earnings which we haven't seen yet. pete mentioned transports which we've talked about for a long time. then i look at biotech which have been on fire as well. everybody back in the spring everybody said biotech is over, it's over inflated. valuations are too rich. we said, no, wrong, poppy cock and now look at it. >> i never said that. >> nice use of the word though, guy. karen, you go to the banks that they participated which is a good sign. >> it's a good sign. they haven't been participating. i kind of agree with pete. i think the path of least resistance is to the up side. we're pretty much most of the way through earnings season. that's a lot of news out of the way. and then as guy said, you know,
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we've traded on ukraine, we've traded down a few times. each time something happens to ukraine we'll have less and less of a reaction i think. it seems like with the markets getting thinner as august goes on, the path of least resistance is up. the fed or the e.u. >> we do have fed chair janet yellen speaking at jackson hall. >> i don't think people expect her to be overly hawkish. >> bernanke set the bar so high for that jackson hall speech. people look at it as a catalyst. >> i don't think it can be. the problem i have with the market is the good of the market. i see why apple is up, microsoft is up and intel is up. i think for the market to get to the level where it blows through 2000 on the s&p, i do think you need the twitters. >> mna also. >> start the morning with an announcement. $9 billion deal. >> a couple of banks is what we need. the banks are participating but
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it's not strong participation. when you look at all the rest of the sectors that are pushing up, we are getting participation from twitter, gopro. the financials, yes, they eased up a little bit. bank of america, jpmorgan, citi, all through the line, most of the names are moving to the up side. it's a grind. >> get the bank to move further though. that's the problem. is it something out of the fed where we're waiting -- it's a telegraph thing with interest rates. what is going to make the banks move even further? to me that whole trade seems range bound like the s&p now. >> it's an optimistic group. while the broader markets remain near all time highs, one sector has failed to keep pace. coal stocks. alpha natural, pea body energy all down 90% from the 2008 highs. we have someone who says now might be the time to bet big on coal. dennis gartman, good to see you. i know you can't name stocks. you like this sector which is a
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contrarian view. >> it might not be the ultimate but it might be the penultimate. if you're supposed to buy the straw hats in the fall, if you're supposed to buy things that are out of favor with everybody almost a year ago i started buying aluminum which created laughter amongst most other people and now you see that aluminum shares have been one of the leaders on the s&p for the past ten months. i feel the same way about coal. coal is still going to supply what, 41% of the united states electricity generation, 43% of the world's electricity generation. if you look at that thing and think you are going to expect or get tipped global economic growth, i think you are, one of the cheapest entities has to be coal. yes, some of the coal companies are going to go bankrupt, no question about it. the president has said that he intends to put new coal companies into bankruptcy. the e.p.a. simply has a nuclear
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weapon out for the coal companies, but the amount of news, the information is so overtly one sided i want to own them. >> that's right where i'm at with the e.p.a. for us, if you look at these, they look like the airlines did when everyone wanted to throw out all airlines and it would have made a great case to buy a basket of them, but the e.p.a. could rachet up those regulations on carbon and it's game over a lot quicker for coal than it has been already. >> they can. do they really -- do you really think that at this point where you're talking about 40 some% of the electricity in the united states generated by coal that the e.p.a. is going to go and push for that? i can't imagine that they will. i guess they can. never under estimate the ability of a left wing government to do silly left wing things. never under estimate the ability of our government to do even sillier things, but again, you're buying stocks that are down 90 to 95% from their highs and over the course of the last ten months have built what looks to be reasonably good bases. they've made their lows.
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they've tested those lows in many instances. i think in the game of investments that's the only rule that you really get to play by. give me something that's down 90, 95% that hasn't made a new low for a long period of time where the news is just manifestly bearish and i'm going to take a shot at owning them. it looks to me just like aluminum of ten months ago. >> i could be wrong. >> no, i understand that. i think you make a valid point. i know you're not going to name names. pete can speak to this. they've become options without any expiration date. a name like alpha natural, pea body energy, what have you. is that the way you look at these? binary pays. some will go bankrupt, others won't. >> yes. i think that's exactly the way to look at it, a long-term leap on continued economic growth. buy four or five of them. two of them will probably go out of business. two of them will probably double or triple and one may be a ten bagger after all the smoke clears.
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that's probably what will end up happening. some of them will, indeed, go out of business. james river coal for example right here in our area went out not too long ago. that was sad because it was a long-term subscriber to the gartman letter and fully paid up. >> nice shameless plug or maybe it's a bet on a republican administration or republican controlled senate? >> i think that a republican controlled senate will probably do much to rachet down the e.p.a.'s impact upon what's going on and that clearly would be a better bet once that occurs. let us hope that that happens. >> all right. it's a bold move. dennis gartman, always good to see you. let's trade it. pete, interested in coal? >> yeah, i am. we've watched this over the last couple of weeks, whether it's anr, archery, walter. peabody enin earniergy had some. we're seeing paper out there. sure, i think to dennis's point, i think -- and to guy's point, talking about some of these
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stocks being options, they beat down so far, they've traded like options. cat ter pillar. it's been trading off the construction side of caterpillar. if they get anything going on the mining side, that could be another kicker that pushes them to 110. >> karen? >> dennis's point of buying a hand full of them is the way to go. if you look at something like the walter enin earning gi, which the debt, the debt is much smarter, the company traded at 58 cents on the dollar. 22% yield. they're telling you this is a company in serious financial distress. that lottery ticket he's talking about, could be ten bagger. anr, very indebted. peabody, less so. >> natural gas fracking boom, we need to talk about that. that's been a huge point that's hurting coal. interesting conversation. now let's get a market flash on arrow postal. courtney reg began. >> busy day for retail.
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let's start with aeropostal. thomas johnson stepping down as ceo and director. julian geiger, he's stepping back into the suite and on to aeropostale's board. the ceo as of december 2013. they're updating the q2 outlook ahead of the planned earnings input on thursday. it fell 13% year over year. the teen retailer now forecasting a second quarter loss of 42 to 45 cents. that's actually better than its previous range of a loss of 55 to 61 cents and better than the street's current 68 cents. expectations for the losses not good to have losses like that. urban outfitters reporting 49 cents income. revenue of 811 million is slightly better than expected. gross margins fell. same store sales were flat
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overall. the name sakes urban outfitters stores but up 21% and up 6% at anthropology. that company still has a lot of work through to do as it tries to really increase the brand awareness and the sales at urban outfitters. back to you, sarah. >> courtney, a lot of late-breaking news on the retail front. ken, i can't believe another retail ceo is stepping down. >> well, this has been sort of a troubled story. sycamore took a stake. a lot of people were in on the takeover, 6, 7, even higher. i think that with same store sales down like that, down 13%, i would really look elsewhere. had is just -- it's -- it's too far gone. >> and like jcpenney bringing in a former ceo, procter & gamble employing this strategy. i don't know. >> you have to look at the stock. the short interest was 32% in the name so when you see it pop like that it's all a point of reference where it's popping from. this type of a retailer has
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tremendous competition. i don't know if i would be in this type of a name but you cannot be short a $3 name. >> in the last four years they've moved the decimal point one place to the left. if you look at it, that's exactly what's happening. aeropostale. the short range, people cover tomorrow. every instance that that's happened over the last four years has been an opportunity to sell the stock. i think that's what's going to happen. >> burning through cash. never a good sign. >> yeah. speaking of teen retailers, urban outfitters reporting obviously they have different sections doing better than others, they've been hot on the ecommerce trend. numbers disappointing? >> a little bit disappointing. macy's call, their own strength in teen retailing. urban outfitters, they do a great job. it's on a bargain. it's traded much higher as a multiple than it has here. that one to me is more interesting than aero.
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>> i like anthropology. >> what do you like about it? >> i think they're on trend. >> short hills mall hangout. >> stick with the team. stick with the team. what about guy's left. continue. >> no, just my two cents, not as an inventor. coming up, apple shares are creeping towards that $100 share mark today. find out the number one thing that smartphone makers want to see when apple's new iphone is announced next month. that's after the break. it's monday,
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♪ ♪ who is this? >> that's nice. >> latch. i love latch. they're my favorite band, latch. i went to their last show. great. >> wow. >> off the hook. >> i'm impressed by him. all right. as speculation continues ahead of apple's next iphone release, one feature in particular could hold the key to apple's success. a new survey from smartphone marketplace. you sell.com asked customers to rate the features they wanted to see in the device. joining us with the results of the survey is nick ramen, co-founder and c.o.o. of
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usell.com. >> we found overwhelmingly 50% said one break through was the new sapphire scratch and crack resistant glass. >> expensive stuff. >> expensive stuff. >> are they willing to pay more for it? >> apple hopes they will. they've bet $700 million that they will. >> your company buys back old phones, correct? >> yes. we're the first reverse marketplace. it makes you easy to go and buy things online, we make it easy to sell things. >> obviously this is important because we're talking about a saturated smartphone market in the united states. what is your best estimation of how many people who own iphones own old models that they'll turn in to you and buy the new 6. >> we see 50,000 users a month trading in their phones. we've grown 100% in the last six months. we expect to see a big bump when the new iphone comes out. one thing we see this time of year is 40% of users have damaged phones.
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i think a lot of guys who are sending thoer phones have cracked screens. >> i have a cracked screen. >> everybody seems to. >> i'm curious though, is it more big screen or battery life? where do we stand as far as where people's demands are? >> another interesting finding we had in our survey was 20% of people cited battery life than big screen. apple is touting the big screen. >> so when someone sells you their phone, what do you do? refurbish it, resell it? >> usell is a marketplace. we don't buy the phones directly but we connect you. >> middlemen. >> middlemen. we function that way on the reverse side. our buyers will take those phones, they'll refurbish them and sell them in countries like latin america, hong kong. there's a big market here. the refurb market.
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>> do you do samsung as well? >> beyond iphone samsung is our next biggest model or o.e.m. we see 25% of our phones come in as samsung, 50% iphones. the rest are split between the other oems and blackberry. >> i wondered if the growth rate was slowing on samsung? >> obviously samsung has had some challenges this year. we're seeing a lot of samsung s4s and 3s. >> the co founder and c.o.o. of usell.com. it's soaring on the apple sale. >> is this whole table full of apple bowls except for guy? >> why do you have to single out me? >> i own it. >> do you own it? >> i own it. >> do you? >> no. i've got a little phone. my apple phone. i love it. it's my favorite thing. in terms of the stock, stevie's talked about this. pete's in the stay the course mode and that's the right course to be. if you look at it now, here we are bouncing up at that level.
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we topped out at 2012. the fact that we're remaining leads me to believe we're about to take the next wave higher. if you haven't been in this name yet, why don't you wait for a clear, decisive breakout. that breakout comes at a close of 101. you could say so what, it's here already, which is fine. you can play a tactical level and say i'm waiting for a close of 101. >> last week they were into the september 12 expiring calls. why are they buying that particular month and strike? the reason they're looking at that 97 101, they bought it 10,000 times last week. folks are looking at exactly what guy is talking about. they think it will go up to 101. they don't see much more up side. they're willing to take the risk to finance that buy. there's a bullish tone. 600,000 calls against 200,000 puts. the bulls continue to want to run into apple. they think there's a little bit of a break to the up side but they're playing the launch that's going to be supposedly sometime in early september. we get the launch, iphone 6,
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everybody expects to see 101. >> it's about more than a launch, right, karen? >> that's part of launch, right was the peak. i have a question for pete. how much pressure is there for this thing to close that week at 100 because the open interest on the 100 is strapped? >> there's absolutely no doubt. there's huge volumes. we talk about volumes all the time. i think people are looking a the the $100 level. guy brings that up. people bring that up all the time. that seems to be the ceiling. to guy's point, you have 10% to the up side looking at over 110. the guys short of the 101 calls will get nervous to want to buy back some of those shorts. >> i think you get your real good beta play. if you're long apple, it breaks through that level. gtad is through 100. >> there's also word they're going to use that glass on the
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iwatches. the smart phones. >> still ahead, are some of procter & gamble's most famous brands on the chopping block. we'll look at what products they're going to get rid of. plus, who's tops when it comes to the ecommerce battle royale. see how amazon is stocking up a little bit later on. having the cloud allows us to rapid prototype a lot of ideas. being able to pay as we go was crucial for a start up. having to fork out a lot of money up front was risky. you can launch a feature really quick,
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and if the feature doesn't work, we haven't lost anything and we can have something up and running in days. and this would not be possible without the cloud. we are now supporting over 25 million users each month. ideas can be tried and tried again on the ibm cloud. the ibm cloud is the cloud for business. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. to me, relationships matter.
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now steel dynamics, within the last week and a half or so they were going out buying the february 22 calls. today we're seeing the november 22 calls over 4,000 of those trading in a single chunk. a lot of activity out there. paying $1.40 for these. stock has moved up and through establishing a new 52 week high. we're talking about steel, coals, iron ore. we've seen the move for a while now. it's been playing out. looks like folks are expecting for this to continue on and looking for more highs when we're looking at steel names. >> china, hard to find an exact catalyst. we're moving onto the housing stocks. k.b. home and lennar. home building rose in august since back in january. credit suisse telling investors to own home depot and lowe's. guy, you've got some thoughts on
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this. >> good for credit suisse. i agree. if you look at home depot, frank lake has done everything right. 16 times forward earnings, you can say it's expensive. i don't think it is. their balance sheet is impeccable. the housing market is right in the sweet spot of h.d. if they miss tomorrow and the stock trades down to 80, you buy it, if it rallies, you stay with it. >> steve, you like k.b. home. >> my down side risk is $16. when you look at it, if i am correct we're lapping that government shutdown, right? a lot of these comps, i believe it was last october, i could be wrong, someone tweet me, we're lapping that now. those comps are going to be a lot easier to beat than people think. k.b. homes seems like a lay-up with a $16 down side risk. >> i thought it was interesting given sales were lumpy when it comes to housing. >> as long as rates stay low and we're not going to get incredibly hawkish. improving jobs is good for retail and housing. >> october 1st through 16th,
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2013. >> nice job. >> next up, procter & gamble catching a slight bid after reuter's report saying the company is working with goldman sachs to divest some of its brands. braun and duracell are two brands likely to end up on the chopping block. pete had a good piece on ivory soap. >> the top brands account for the majority. you're talking about 90% of revenues for this company. when you look at the dividend yield of procter & gamble, they've been in a restructuring process. they want to get themselves into a position to shed some of the underperforming area and actually just focus on the areas that are hitting the bottom line for them now. makes a lot of sense. makes me even that much more bullish for procter & gamble going forward? >> do you own procter & gamble? >> i do not. it's a little conservative. >> you want to see the cuts? >> i don't expect them to be a
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monster mover for me. as a guy in the options world. >> option monster. i get it. >> monster. >> very good. coming up, in light of google's ten year anniversary tomorrow, our traders are playing a little which would you rather? would you rather, google, amazon, or yahoo!. they name their picks next. later, will electric cars rule the world in the next 25 years? take you into the future of the auto injury with phil lebeau live on set. >> get out of here. >> a momentous occasion here on the nasdaq. >> announcer: sharpen your pencils, you're about to get schooled in the fine art of trading with the "fast money" back to trade school starting next week. the "fast money" traders are taking your questions to help you make sense of the markets, and maximize your profits. just send us a video with your trade school question. >> we'd like to know what the heck is head and shoulders. >> post it to the "fast money"
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twitter page and be sure to use hague backtotradeschool. >> what is quantitative easing? >> has to do with knowledge. >> trade school is in session. >> "fast money" back to trade school next week only on cnbc. it's estimated that 30% of the traffic in a city is caused by people looking for parking. that's remarkable that so much energy is, is wasted. streetline has looked at the problem of parking, which has not been looked at for the last 30, 40 years. we wanted to rethink that whole industry, so we go and put out these sensors in each parking spot and then there's a mesh network that takes this information, sends it over the internet so you can go find exactly where those open parking spots are. the collaboration with citi was important for providing us the necessary financing;
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allow this small start up to go provide a service to municipalities. citi has been an incredible source of advice, how to engage with municipalities, how to structure deals, and as we think about internationally citi is there every step of the way. so the end result is you reduce congestion, you reduce pollution and you provide a service to merchants, and that certainly is huge.
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♪ ♪
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♪ still ahead on "fast money", google, yahoo! or amazon. coming up, our traders reveal which stock they would rather own right now. as oil falls, the transports are on an absolute tear. and a back to school bump. traders making a bullish bet on one retail name. we'll tell you what that is. but first, as online retailers battle it out for your money, ecommerce and software company channel advisor is out with a new study on which company is holding the number one spot. let's bring in the chairman and ceo of the company. talk about your finding, who's on top and who's getting hurt in ecommerce. >> hey, sarah, pete, guy, steve. thanks for having me today.
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we're a software company. we have over 2600 retailers. what we do is measure over $4 billion worth of sales through what we call ecommerce channels. what we released was july data that showed a.m. zon grew at 40%, ebay grew at 10% and google shopping grew at 40%. kind of a mixed bag there. >> right. amazon got a nice lift after that report. how closely do your results report with those results. >> if they're selling on a.m. zon they know how they're doing against their peers. the other benchmark is ecommerce is growing 13%. our customers are growing 3% faster on amazon. the egm is electronics and general merchandise. we don't see any first party and we don't see anything around the media category. some wall street analysts have shown that our data is pretty correlated to amazon but that's
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not why we put it out there. >> in terms of ebay's slump, is it because it's losing share? it's not as effective of a tool? is it more of a temporary tool? talk about what's behind that slump. >> yeah, so ebay's had a tough couple of months. so they had an action from google with the panda update. they indexed a lot of the ebay contend. th -- content. they had a data breach. they had to make everyone reset their passwords. what you find is it's very hard to get users to reset their passwords. many times they forget their new passwords. ebay is working hard to get them reactivated and get the passwords going and get them reennerge guised on the platform. >> your stock has had a rough year. some investors were concerned with user growth. it's one of these momentum stocks that goes up and down
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with the overall market. what do you have to say to your investors? >> yeah. so we're a smaller capital stock. we're really focused on the long run and in the second quarter we beat our expectations and raised for the year. there is a number in there called net ads where we calculate the number of customers that have been added. that's up over -- our customers are up over but the net ads was a little bit lower this quarter than it was prior. unlike other softwares and service businesses we have a big variety of customers. we have customers that pay us 10 k a year and customers that pay us over a million dollars a year. what we said is we had record bookings. you take the dollar value of what we've added. it was up 18% sequentially. we feel it's an overreaction. >> thanks for joining us with the survey results of your study. tomorrow marks the tenth
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anniversary of google'sism p.o. the tech giant now almost 1300% higher from that day. how did the other tech titans compare? dom chu breaking it down. >> you have amazon's anniversary coming tomorrow. let's compare it to yahoo!. also a.m. zon.com. we know how much our audience loves numbers. let's take you through some of the big ones starting with of course the ten-year-old anniversary google, right? revenues back in 2004, $3.2 billion. today, $63 billion. that's the last 12 months. 2014 is not over yet. profits back then about $400 million for google. now it's $13.5 billion today. also employees little over 3,000 back in the day. 2004. now 52,000 employees. a huge run growth wise on those three metrics for google.
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how does yahoo! compare? revenues back then, $3.5 billion. today $4.5 billion. profits, $840 million back then and about $1.2 billion now. still growth. not as robust. employees, 7600 back then. 12,300 today. growth. then we'll end on amazon.com. revenues $70 billion back then. they are $82 billion today. profits, $600 million. then you go back to what's happening today. this is a huge one. $181 million so, again, not as much profit. we all know that they're pouring more money back into investing in the future. employee wise, massive, 9,000 employees, guys, back then. now over 132,000 employees at amazon.c amazon.com. so i guess you could say, sarah, some really hyper growth. when you can translate that to
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employees, stocks, revenues, that's what investors like to see. >> dom, those are amazing numbers. so which would you rather buy right now? >> yahoo! or amazon. >> it's a would you rather game. >> your favorite game. >> we have two yahoo!s, two goingle googles. >> we're yahoo!. >> the yahoo!'s on yahoo!. >> i think yahoo! is the most interesting. had a nice day today. lis en, the quarter was disappointing in the middle of july. i think everybody knows that. i don't think they get any credit. this alibaba, people are wrapping their heads around it. they raised the price target to 44 bucks. you get the $44, that's a 17% move from here. i'll take that any day. >> why google? are you up 1300% from the ipo,
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kash? >> probably not. i have been long for a long time. i still like it here. i think it's reasonably priced. if you look at yahoo!, those numbers were misleading. while they show great increase, revenue has come down in the last few years. that's not a good thing. really, the way to make -- if you want to be betting on alibaba, then you can bet yahoo!. otherwise i think it's somewhat misguided. much rather be in google. >> nobody has said amazon. >> when you look at amazon on the screen, everyone bets against amazon. when you look at the revenue number, that's incredible. what would you rather be, a company that did grow rev mys and can rachet back or would you want to see them betting on the next best and greatest thing? >> and taking shares everywhere. >> that's what i think you want. google gives you the valuation at a decent level. yahoo! is a role of the dice on
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al alibaba. >> it's still growing. >> it is. i don't see the same growth. short term. you've got the core. you also have this alibaba thing. it's hard to discount they have a 24% steak and they also have -- >> why is it buy alibaba? >> you could or you could get the ride that you're getting in yahoo!. a lot of people didn't see this coming. the stock was at 19. guy and i are talking about this stock. i think $44 very easily hit in the next couple of weeks. >> all right. good game of would you rather. time now for pops and drops. the big movers of the day. pop for seaworld popping 1%, pete. >> not much of a pop when you look back to last week when you saw the stock get absolutely slammed. obviously they had a very terrible week. the attendance was bad. 1%, you stay away. >> what about general electric? a pop. >> i've liked them for a while. can't get out of their own way. reiterated and outperformed one of the analysts. i think the name. i think it's north of 30.
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honey well is the best. >> monster beverage dropped 5%. >> it's not a drop, it's backtracking on the gigantic move off the coke deal. so expensive here. maybe there's a floor under it. too expensive for me. >> family dollar for a pop. steve, 5%. >> it really doesn't matter whether dollar tree or dollar gen. the longer term is family dollar is probably going higher. probably mid 80s. if you look at it technically, i hate buying charts like this but it continues to scream high. >> a bidding war, from electric vehicle to self-driving cars, take a look at what the future holds for the auto industry. the one and only phil lebeau has made his way all the way from chicago -- >> wow. >> -- to be with us after the break. a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one.
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redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no limits. the one and only phil lebeau has
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♪ ♪ it's a wedding song. >> it's electric. >> oil and gas prices dropped and speaking of transportation stock, we've got our own phil lebeau on set at the nasdaq.
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only the second time ever at the nasdaq market. what's the future hold for the auto industry, phil? >> two things we want to talk about. we want to talk about electric vehicles and self-driven vehicles. let's start with electric vehicles. for all the talk about how these are the vehicles of the future, everybody is jumping into them, take a look at the numbers. 85 million this year. that's what the industry is going to make around the world. how many electric vehicles will they make? about 142,000. it's not even 1/10 of 1%. not a drop in the bucket. it's nowhere close to registering to half a percent. on top of that when you look 25 years in the future the expectation is you will have 8 million electric cars in the united states. boosting those sales, however, is going to require huge government subsidies. a continuation of what we have right now probably extended even further. in fact, m.i.t. says in order to get to 5% of new vehicles being
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electric vehicles by 2039 you'll need not only incentives for people buying, continuing on charging stations, you'll need the carbon tax is going to have to go into effect at some point. a lot of things are going to have to come together. keep that in mind when you look at electric vehicles 25 years out. self-driving side the technology is here. there's no doubt. anybody who has had a chance to be in the google car or other self-driven cars, all of the technology is here. the question is when do the regulators feel comfortable putting this technology out here saying this is what people will use in the future. we went out to the r&d facility for mercedes benz in silicon valley. when you see what happens with heads up displays in which you're not driving because the car is doing everything, you'll be able to communicate with other people who go by. maybe they'll be on facebook. a restaurant will text you. you can answer e-mail. >> when? when will this be on the road? >> you will have some of this by the end of the decade. the fully autonomous vehicles,
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you'll look at 2030. the technology is there. it's rapidly coming to market. the question is going to really be forcing the regulators to say i'm cool with people not driving. you'll see it first on the highway and eventually in the city. >> company wise who is taking the lead here on this getting this on the road. you mentioned mercedes. >> mercedes is in the forefront. everybody is working on self-driven vehicles. you have g.m., nissan, tesla has talked about how they're going to have an auto pilot car. everybody will have something in terms of the first phase of automation by the end of this decade. >> they're each working on their own? nobody's taking anybody else's software? >> they're going to have to eventually all talk to each other. you have the federal government working on a pilot study in ann arbor, michigan, where they basically say what does it take for all of these vehicles from different automakers to talk to each other, talk to the stop sign, talk to the light? it's all about prevending accidents where you're taking
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the turn, you don't see somebody there, seeing pedestrians up ahead. there's no doubt it's coming. >> that would be something in new york city. >> in the city that's closer to 2030. >> phil, good to have you here. >> in the flesh. >> good to be here. >> let's trade the auto. >> the only way to trade tesla, we all think this is a volatile crazy thing. implied volatilities in tesla are extremely low. the lowest level since the options were listed. because of that i think there were opportunities to either hedge yourself, protect yourself to the down side or speculate to the up side. if you launch it ready to go, i think stealing some market in the asian market, ford i think is the best name right now. >> guy, you've got a good one. >> yeah, borg warner. phil next to me is royalty. borg warner. possible consolidation into space. it's sold off about 8 or 9%, wa.
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they've been in their sweet spot for another three to five years. >> the future of the auto industry. phil, good to see you. still ahead, one trader making a bullish bet on an off priced retailer. we will name names for you next. s to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. it's monday,
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let's take a look at today's "options action"s. mike co, you have a retailer about to report earnings. >> tjx, t.j. max. traded 9 times their daily call. due to report earnings tomorrow. this is one of the stocks in a very strong market that hasn't performed very well. down over 15% to date. it's interesting, too, because it's not really a discount when you look at the valuation compared to well known names like macy's which is actually quite a bit cheaper but this is a stock that has registered ten consecutive years of revenue and e.p.s. gains. that's probably not something that a lot of companies can say. >> and done so much better than filene's basement, low man's. >> you can catch more "options action" 5:30 p.m. check out the website.
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optionsaction.cnbc.com. >> steve ballmer had a fiery reputation when he's running microsoft. now he's taking his act to the nba. he's touting his new ownership of the clippers. jane is there. she's been watching ballmer's move. was it the same type of performance? >> it was like an old microsoft sales rally. he fired up the troops. it was unlike anything they had seen. ♪ ♪ >> we're not moving the clippers to seattle. for 100 reasons but the one people understood is we bought l.a. beach front, not seattle beach front. but i love seattle. i'm going to love beating the old seattle basketball team when we get our first lick in the first game of the year. >> he's talking about the oklahoma city thunder.
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when he first came out he was screaming his head off, chest bumping everyone. you can see the time line there of events leading up to this. $2 billion purchase is 12 times expected revenues this year according to espn. that is a very high ratio. i asked him a few minutes ago if he plans to sell more microsoft stock to make this deal happen going forward? he said, not at the moment but he's going to take a deep breath, sarah, and reassess. >> there is a salary cap so there's no point in selling too many shares. >> that was a throw back, jane, to the microsoft moments. thanks so much, jane wells. a little more appropriate. >> how much fun would having dinner with him be? >> you like the enthusiasm? >> no. >> you think it's weird. >> that's a rhetorical question. >> i don't know. >> he would be my first pick for dinner. >> he reminds me of matt foley, motivational speaker, "saturday night live." >> i couldn't remember who. yes. >> nobody likes microsoft, huh? >> oh. >> have you ever seen the show,
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sarah. >> the enthusiasm of ballmer. >> your first move tomorrow when we return. >> announcer: "options action" is sponsored by think or swim by t.d. ameritrade. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. it's been that way wisince the day you met.pp. but your erectile dysfunction - it could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about
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all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than 4 hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. who don't have electricity 400 million people and i just figured that it's time i do something about it. what we're doing right now, along with ibm, is to actually transfer data through a satellite from our wind farms directly onto the cloud. i think we could create a far more efficient system across the whole network where we could actually draw down different kinds of energy based on when it's needed by the consumer.
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it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn, pete. >> you asked about microsoft earlier. i still think hewlett-packard is one of the best in breeds. meg whitman is doing an outstanding job. hewlett-packard is going higher. >> i'm long apple. the risk for reward here, i'm playing it. you'll see it in the next week or so. >> karen? >> you know what, some of the times things line up against you, but i think macy's actually right here expectations are lower. you've got good weather for back to school. you've got gas prices lower and you've got employment rising, macy's. >> guys? >> you have fun? >> i had a blast. >> good. >> you heard phil lebeau mention you've been able to communicate with other drivers on the road. >> i don't know what you want to say. >> i do that every day. >> guys, this is the time i think you have to give your final. >> final trade. they have it on the board. michael kors. you look at that last quarter was very strong.
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selloff to me is done kors. >> not worried about the margins? >> i'm not worried about it. >> worrying about deflation. >> i'm sarah eisen. catch "fast money" again at 5:00 p.m. eastern. "mad money" with jim cramer begins right now.

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