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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  August 18, 2014 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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selloff to me is done kors. >> not worried about the margins? >> i'm not worried about it. >> worrying about deflation. >> i'm sarah eisen. catch "fast money" again at 5:00 p.m. eastern. "mad money" with jim cramer begins right now.
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we're? in the cross hairs of europe, but we know that yurt has been weak. that is the approximate cause. the sooner it happens the less likely we wilikely we will get bigger cuts. that means the less likely that you will blast out of stocks ahead of a tsunami of selling when you have a number of cuts. prudence and foresight produce what i call just in case selling. again that is totally sensible. i'm never going to criticize that. aside from these two factors, friday's selling had they're own momentum. the first reason that people sold, the fed. we heard endlessly that the
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federal reserve was behind the curve. meaning the fed will have to do something to send stocks lower. and that thing is to raise interest rates quickly. before i tear this apart you need to know that at the end of the week bankers gathered. you'll have to hear stories about how the fed is going to hurt you and your pocketbook. i would love to be able to immunize you against this chatter, but it is almost impossible because the people who say this stuff have whole divisions on television. i'm practically a loan gunman in my dismissal of the fed as the be all and end all of your stock portfolio. it doesn't compute for me. what the people who sold because of the fed didn't realize is that the data right now does not support the fed changing it's stance because it's mixed.
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yes, indeed there is some impolice station, but there is less inflation than we thought because of a decline in food prices. a retreat in gas, did you buy this week? i did. there may be more job growth than we think. we have the possibility of better job creation and we have deals like the one we got today where dollar general swooped in too buy family dollar causing the stock to jump. why did it go higher? simple, because if dollar general gets family dollar as opposed to dollar tree, the new company will be streamlined. meaning lots of people will be fired. as the combined entity closes stores to compete with each other. every time you get cocky about job growth companies merge and people get laid off. we should have more recession because the stock market is up
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and more americans feel optimistic. credit is still hard to come by and there is a reason for that. bankers after the great recession were afraid to show a spike in bad loans. let's call it as we see it, affordable care act made it unaffordable for small businesses. that's a statement of fact from the work i have done, not politics. home sales should be going up since interest rates have come down and housing prices have come down or at least stabilized, but there is no real home building because the down payments are too high. a legacy of no bank wanting to show a pick up in failed mortgage loans. now it can be difficult to process how the economy and stock market interrelate. you want to see enough so that the earnings can be made. you want enough job creation so we may have car sales and retail
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sales, but not so much that we that v to fret about the fed. we don't want them to raise prices and cause a lot of inflation and that's exactly what we have. i used to call it nirvana. a lot of people believe that the market had to have a 5% to 7% pullback. think about that word, due. it can be very seductive. unless you're willing to analyze the market with the same rigor that you apply to sports. consider the stock market, for a moment, the way you may look at a baseball team. they may have a great deal of wins, but at any time, any snapshot, individual players are failing miserably who had their averag averages sink that are not getting any rbis and that is
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what is happening in the stock market and it happens to player after player. they only slightly beat the estimates. they had to do better than that. they got crushed. just when the airlines looked like they were finished, goners even, the price broke down and the primary cost, jet fuel, cost them to rally back. then the internet stocks got slams. perhaps a slow down in weapon adoption and in web titizetizia. now yelp is above where it was. the so-called bad quarter -- we now like the quarter. tech, last week they were quick to dump all over cisco. now when we look back we see buyers including cisco. as a recognizing the big run that heightened expectations and
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made them hard to beat. think about how high the expectations got for macy's and nordstrom's. that brings me to the best opportunity in the whole market right now because i like to buy weakness and i like a bargain. i'm talking about the oils themselves hence, the oil tie. they have been producing new highing after new highs for some time. and that meant production growth means earnings per share growth. many of their members have been sent down horribly. today was no different. the pattern of this market is to wait for your stocks to come in and then you have to buy. the airlines, the retailers, the tax. right now the oils have gun to overcorrect. that's why we're devoting a considerable chunk of this show, this week, to help you take
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advantage of a rolling correction. not necessarily the ones that we specifically talk about, but just to show you how robust the oil and gas patch is and right for the picking. we have to find and isolate the best buys together. to recap, those who sold the market last week because they thought it was prudent sold goo a broader correction that has not occurred. it would have been smarter to buy into the individual siector that got hammered. there was legitimate reasons to sell last friday including the possibility of a war. it has been the pattern for all of 2014. i'm beginning to believe it will be for the rest of the year. mark, in ohio, mark. >> caller: a cleveland booyah to
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you. >> a brown booyah to you. >> ye >> caller: i'm looking forward to watching johnny manziel. i am a handler, and i have lbc, i wrought it a couple months back. looking at the mccown revenue and so on and so forth thinking this looked like a good number. >> i'm now asking for a hybrid model. i like lvs, i think it's mgm. i get the numbers from my friend every week about the vegas take. you want to be in mgm, that has the best balance right now. certainly you don't want to be in atlantic city. let's go to norman in missouri, norman. >> caller: hello, jim. >> how are you? >> caller: fine, how are you? >> real good, thank you.
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>> caller: i need to know more about b.p. stocks. i owned some of it for a long time. i buy a little bit here and there, i'm wondering if i'm doing the right thing? >> look, here is the problem with b.p. i thought that today, when i see russia and ukraine talking, i get more excited about b.p. when i see them disputing, i get less excited. why not think of america for oil. we have plenty of companies with good growth and dividend. as much as i value their management, i would like to see this russia and ukraine thing all of the table before i pound the table. all of the other reasons for selling this year, candidly, they brought stocks down to levels you want them as a buying opportunity. for now on until year end it may
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turn out to be that way. nordstrom is making a big push with digital orders and returns. monster got a push last week but today it got the jitters. plus, a different kind of energy, all week i'm finding the best ways to play the revolution in our own backyard. stick with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer. send jim an e-mail at madmoney@cnbc.com. miss something? go to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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when frustration and paperwork decrease. when grandparents get to live at home instead of in a home. so let's do it. let's simplify healthcare. let's close the gap between people and care.
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of all of the truly disturbing retail conference calls we heard this week, it wasn't the disappointing macy's call that got to me, or the j.c.
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penney call. it was the nordstrom run through. on the surface the call seemed like a good one. a new acquisition panning out, an expanse of a rack that everyone loves. a tearful invasion of canada. comparable stores and sales numbers, and you can see how it might continue to rally as it did going into the quarter. then you heard about the spend. you heard that nordstrom is going to invest to stay competitive including $1.2 billion in technology. that is even more than we thought last time when they talked about spending for what now seems like running in place. this spending is causing a cross margin guide down which is not what you want to hear. no nordstrom is rolling ut with an
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emphasis on nordstromrack.com. this binge cheap is not coming cheap for amazon, either. what is so painful this time though is that you realize something. the better nordstrom makes it's websites, the less you have to go to the store. the store itself, i don't know about yours i can tell you about mine, it's a paradise of enticement, getting you to buy other goods that go with your purchasing or just browsing to buy things that you haven't even thought of buying. these are untargeted equivalents of the amazon prompt. the smart, helpful sales people
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there get you to buy other things you had not thought about buying and they do it in a way they feel terrific about it. i come home with boat loads of private label shirts and ties that i love, which i had no intention of purchasing when i went in for a pair of cuff links. it all reminds me when the web first came on the scene and started to up-end journalism. they realized they may have to spin off their websites at separate valuable businesses. so they spent and spent but the sto stocks collapsed before they could bring the ipo. they got fast enough to allow for things like video and the newspaper became inexpensive. worse, the website was less
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lucrative or enjoyed. i fear that's where nordstrom is now. the more it spends in part to keep up with amazon, the better they make their website and the less we need to go to the fabulous stores that cost so much to maintain. it's smart caring sales people, they're becoming increasedly irrelevant. the benefit is the trion, but it's not the big edge it used today be. we all learned how to send back internet merchandise now. when i hear about another retailer refreshing their omni channel i no longer applaud. it means lower gross margins and sinking stock prices and that's what happened with this great american retailer stock price last week. so bottom line is this.
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as far as i can tell it's only going to get tougher and more competitive for nordstrom over time. can go to doug in missouri, please? >> caller: i would like your opinion on tiffany. will the high end clientele give it immunity? >> i'm concerned about tiffany, it had a fabulous run. but i can't tell you to buy at this level, it had too much of a run. monster beverage lost some of the pop today, is it time to ditch the energy drinks? and falling oil prices and putting energy stocks through the ringer. don't get up just yet. all of this week i'm going behind the boom as we have done since the beginning to find the best place.
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plus the always high octane lightning wrong. . o. u. nds.
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you know what? time far victory lap. a month ago i recommended this monster beverage. i said it was a possible takeover candidate. last thursday night we learned that coca-cola was making a big
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strategic partnership with monster which includes buying a 16.7% stake. and monster is giving coke their nonenergy drink business. so what happens? on friday, monster rockets higher going from $71 and change to $93. that is a 30% gain in a single session. if you bought them off of my recommendation as i know many of you did, the responsible thing might be to bring a little register, okay? bulls make money, bears make money, hogs get slaughtered. all of that said, i don't think you should sell your whole position by any means. if you don't own monster, i believe the stock is still worth buys because i think there is very interesting upside from
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these levels, or levels that will come lower. some of it goes back to what i said in july when i started pushing the stock. monster is the number one player in the energy drink category in the united states. and this remains the fastest growing beverage gathering category on earth. plus, after spending a couple years in the woods, the headline risk is now in the past and the growth is reaccelerating. this, just grows a lot faster than this, okay? but the main reason is something new. monster is up 32% since i highlighted it in july. i don't recommend the stock like that unless there is a huge positive development. this deal is the exact kind of positive development. why do i believe their newfound partnership will keep sending the stock higher?
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we have seen all of this before, people. almost in this exact same deal structure. remember back in february coca-cola made a deal with keurig green mountain. at the same time, coke agreed to by a 10% stake for $1.25 billion. it vaulted into the stratosphere the next day. shortly after the transaction was announced, keurig had a slew of downgrades. people really hated the stock, and the shorts convinced a lot of people this one was no good. that's what we're seeing with monster right now. they were convinced it became stretched, that it had limited upside. listen, today, jeffrey just downgraded monster beverage from buying a hold, same really, validation, really killed the stock, and i bet we will see
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many more downgrades exactly like this one in the near future as overly cautious analysts tend to move in herds. they may seem reasonable, it may cause monster to stumble. and i expect the downgrades maybe as early as tomorrow. but every time we get one of these analysts and do selloffs, i think it will be a buying opportunity. that is because coca-cola made monster beverage the son of c e keurig. and if they follow in their footsteps, it will go higher, and i think they will. anybody who blew out of the stock and hold their whole position, and the listened to the analysts that were negative. look at the trajectory. one week later. you missed a quick 17% move if
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you bailed. some of it was fuelled by a short squeeze. and as the analysts hammered them, they pulled back to may. at this point you should have been buying the stock hand over fist. they're now trading at $115. the negative analysts were fools at the time. when coca-cola, a megacap company with deep pockets pours money into a smaller company like keurig, it can only bring more good things to come, not less. by midnight coca-cola said they were upping their stake from 10% to 16%. these guys at coke, they're bright guys. they may be stagnating because of the health risks of drinking soda. but they're very savvy. when they take a huge stake in a company like keurig and monster, they really believe in the
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future. isn't this worse for you than coke? this has growth, this does not have great growth any more. it's no surprise that the positive news for keurig keeps coming. that's week keurig said they're going through a 9% price increase. of course there is a cold beverage system that is developing in concert with coke that will come out for home brewing soft drinks without the need for the co 2 cartridges. coca-cola is doing the same thing with monster beverage and i think the monster story is more positive than keurig's was. if it happens, and i bet it will, monster stock is not done going higher. second, monster will now have access to the distribution
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network. it will make it far easier and cheaper for them to expand overseas. currently they get 80% of sales from here. now they can grow like a weed internationally. we know keurig spent most of the money on a big buy back. if monster spent $2 billion repurchasing their stock, they could have a truly monster buy back. coca-cola revealed their new growth strath gi. relatively small positions in fast growing companies to partnering up. pepsico has a huge international snack business to off set the soft drink business. i think coca-cola's next move should be to take a position in
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white wave. the dominant player in things like soy and almond milk. that would be a nice diversification. after coca-cola invested in keurig, they had weakness, now they have done the same with monster beverage. now they're going to start their downgrades. i'm saying it's a buying opportunity. if you want to speculate on where coke will take the next stake, i'm saying to bet on white waive. >> caller: this is nathan from illinois. get rich carefully. a must read for all investors. >> you're terrific, thank you. >> caller: my question today is about annie's. the company is growing, they're expanding their product line, but the stock keeps going down and getting hammered.
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you say that the food industry should consolidate, is this a good play on that? >> i think management doesn't want to consolidate and i have been unhappy with the execution of annie's. when you consider white wave. we don't need to trade down. i don't want you to own that stock. nick, in virginia. >> caller: booyah from virginia tech. >> what's your thoughts on herbalife. >> it was disappointing, not what i expected, i expected better growth, i'm happy to have the company on to come on explain why it's just a lull, maybe temporary, but after i saw that quarter and i realized this mr. akman has designs to try to whiep it out if he can, i say be very careful. i think monster beverage still has a lot of energy to run.
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i know that peep may disagree, but take this as a pull back opportunity. i'm saying going with white wave, wwav. we'll have a long dive into a company's evolution. it is next, find out where their pioneers spirit has taken them now. now a new way to reach oil that was once thought impossible. that's not even what has me most exciting about the story. plus see if you can stump me, i'm bringing my a game for the lightning round. [ woman ] the cadillac summer collection is here. ♪
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newlywed discount. new college graduate and retiree discounts. you could even get a discount when you add a car. call liberty mutual for a free quote today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. for the past few weeks the independent oil and gas stocks have been put through the meat grinder. when the dollar gets too strong, price the natural gas is going through the floor. that is up 22% in the last two months. i think you to view this as a buying opportunity because these companies are about a lot more than just commodity prices.
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we're in the middle of a domestic energy renaissance to trance for gas and oil producers to some of the fastest growing companies in the world. hence our week-long series "invest in america: behind the boom." i'm giving you a look into some of the companies leading the revolution. we're going to show you some of the best companys in this patch. they are focused on huge acreage along with exposure to shale. there is truly spectacular production growth. they expect the total production to increase by 22% this year. natural gas prices are singing 22% since mid june. fair fallings about 20%.
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they make less money when natural gas prices are weaker. the stock is declining by as much as the commodity. i'm not saying the stock won't keep falling, i'm saying it's getting cheaper as it gets lower. let's check in with jeffrey ventura. he is joining us from denver, colorado, welcome to "mad money." >> thank you, it's great being on your show, jim, i appreciate it. >> there is a sense among people p ro rotating in and out of growth. we should not necessarily draw that conclusion. >> that is absolutely right. one we have a long track record of growing and doing what we say
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we're going to do. we have the longest net acreage situation, and we believe it's the core area. so when you look at range, we believe we can triple and even if all things stay equal, including pricing, it's not all of the same. you look at our contracts next year for range and it's more than a 25% uplift on our pro pain combined. that's a huge uplift. it translates into more than $100 million increase. >> unlike a lot of other companies, it looks like you have pipelines everywhere. some of them are really locked in and can't get this stuff to market, you have them everywhere. >> yeah, that's a great point. range discovered back in october of 2004, so we're coming up on the tenth anniversary. and we recognized we had a great
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opportunity and we found a huge field. we put together a team to capture that. we have firm transportation and firm sales to enable us to triple, and not only to triple but with some of the lowest costs for transportation. so i think the portfolio is better than our competitors. >> we think many companies are used to costs going up year after year. your costs are 27% less than a year ago? >> yeah, or costs are coming down, quality of wells are getting better. if you look at our total unit costs are coming down, approaching 40%. and that's the beauty, you know we're in a commodity business, a resource business. what you want is a high quality resource or rock that is something you can repeat for a long time to allow for
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technology changes that not only improve well quality but drive down costs. we fully expect the quality of wells to get better and the cost to go down. >> if you told me there was a lot of oil and gas in virginia, a couple years ago, i would say that's a little ridiculous. i'm seeing you make very big moves in virginia. how large could that be for range? >> in virginia, we really like it. right now if you look at our footprint in the southern appalachian basin, we have 100% work interest in what we own, and 100% net revenue interest. we own the royalty and the pipeline. we think we can grow that from $100 million a day and make it more than $500 million a day. the gas prices in virginia are some of the best in the country. we're selling our gas there for
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20 cents above. >> i think you can produce so much more natural gas than people realize and it can be used in so many different ways. where do you see us in terms of continental self sufficiency. how much do we have and can we even export it without a problem? >> yeah, the shale feed that we discovered is the largest in the united states. it is probably the second largest in the world. and taking that to other gas fields and the u.s. is now the number one natural gas producer in the world. we have the largest gas production in the world and that we have take than into oil and oil production is climbing and imports are decreasing. i think the u.s. cannot only supply itself, but range is
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signed some contracts and the first of those start up around the end of 2015. >> i know you also have contacts. you have done a great job. i want to thank jeff ventura, good to see you, sir. >> thank you, jim, appreciate it. is this the bottom? i don't know, it's clearly not the top, but look at what they got. fabulous resources, declining costs to get it out. they have not touched much of the utica. i make a lot of purchases for my business. and i get a lot in return with ink plus from chase. like 50,000 bonus points when i spent $5,000
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is caused by people looking for parking. in a city that's remarkable that so much energy is, is wasted. streetline has looked at the problem of parking, which has not been looked at for the last 30, 40 years. we wanted to rethink that whole industry, so we go and put out these sensors in each parking spot and then there's a mesh network that takes this information, sends it over the internet so you can go find exactly where those open parking spots are. the collaboration with citi was important for providing us the necessary financing; allow this small start up to go provide a service to municipalities.
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citi has been an incredible source of advice, how to engage with municipalities, how to structure deals, and as we think about internationally citi is there every step of the way. so the end result is you reduce congestion, you reduce pollution and you provide a service to merchants, and that certainly is huge. it is time for "the lightning round." are you ready? time for the lightning round. steven in missouri. steven? >> caller: booyah, jim. >> i like that, what's up?
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>> caller: i heard you talk about priceline in the past. one of the competitors is expedia -- >> it's too bad that all of the good companies are in one industry because i like expedia too. i talk too much about priceline and not enough about expedia, it's real good. how about dave in california, dave? >> caller: booyah from sunny california. >> what's up? >> i have a long-term position in abbv, and i wanted to now what you thought about it? >> you can follow along with my travel trust, she mentioned abbv today as a good travel stock on the judges show and i could not agree more. let's go to steve in florida, steve? >> caller: jim, how are you doing? >> not bad, how about you partner? >> caller: i'm doing fine, i need to ask you about tra
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transocean. i need to know if i need to -- >> i understand, i think there is -- then transocean, and then esv. all of that said, i don't trust the group, the analysts hate it so much there is only one left. when jp morgan downgrades and then pulls the trigger -- frank in new york, frank? >> big booyah to you, jim. i just wanted to see what you and your staff thinks. i have a stock iamgold. >> i'm not gold, gold stocks have been called a buy, i default to rand gold. dr. mark bristol says he has one
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more big find and gold is my play. that is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round sponsors by t.d. futures move first. amer. and trade with paper money to test-drive the market. all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade.
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welcome back to "mad money." all week we're looking at every part of the oil patch. i think this whole group has
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been put on sail. right now i want to introduce you to an independent oil and gas producer. this company is dead set on giving growth and income. i'm talking about denbury resources, dnr. they get oil fields and blast them with carbon dioxide, and they unlock oil that would oersz be impossible to recover. they transport the carbon dioxide. the company co 2 infrastructure means they can acquire tapped out oil fields and breathe new life into them. however, what really grabbed my attention is they're trying to forecast growth and income at
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the same time. that doesn't include acquisitions at the same time. at their analyst day last year, they plan to more than double the payout next year. talk about shareholder friendly. if management can deliver i think the upside can be good. let's go back to the oil and gas conference to check in with phil ryecook. welcome to "mad money." >> hi, jim, thank you for bringing me on the show. >> you have a slide, page ten, that says you have more than a billion barrels of oil potential at denbury? >> we do we have nearly four million in crude reserves and
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about eight million in probables. we think that is about 10% of the potential. the energy department said there is up to 10 billion barrels that could be recovered. >> why wouldn't you try to be as aggressive as possible and try to bring those costs down. >> we're very focused on values, keeping cost down is important to us, but it's hard to grow in the same way as a shell player. you look at how they operate. they spend more than cash flow, they can deliver 20% and 30% growth rates. we're managing the co2 supply. we're trying to utilize at the field, and we want the best rate of return that we can get. so it's solving for rate of return rather than production
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growth. and because of that the nature of our assets don't decline as fast. so it's -- it enables us to throw out a lot of free cash. we felt like growth and income was the best path. >> last week they were laying out a multiyear dividend protection, is there any way you can do that and not just 2015? >> we tried to stay away from multiyear, it depends on oil price. we gave 25 cents this year and we said it would at least double in 2015, but i expect it to grow exhibitly there after. we expect top line to be 4% to 8% and the dividend should grow consistently with that. >> one of the things i don't
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think people understand you're very well hedged. those that see your stock don't understand the way you hedged your enterprise. >> we're hedged for about 18 months out. we have hedges through the first quarter. in 2014 we swapped it out, but in 2015 and 2016, we have callers, generally the floor prices around 85 and the ceiling is near 100. jim, our long-term oil price we use to meet our price and forecast is only $85. so if we have been locking in better than that, it is just adding icing to the cake. it's just gravy for us. >> that's fill
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. all of this week we're learning again. think about when the airlines were the worst stock, that's when you had to buy them.
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you had a tremendous decline in the aircraft manufacturers, autos, around and around. we're doing it with oil right now. just for you right here on "mad [ cellphone chimes ] >> it's friday night. what better way to get it started than with an ice-cold beer? it's one of the world's simplest drinks -- mostly water, a little alcohol. but behind this simple drink is this -- a giant megafactory, packed to the rafters with high-tech equipment, thousands of beer makers, and millions of gallons of beer. heineken's home plant tips the scales as the largest brewery in europe, all of it dedicated to a glass of that age-old brew.

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