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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  September 9, 2014 9:00am-11:01am EDT

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got no time to thank you adequately, gordon, for being with us and bringing great guests. >> glad to do it. the foundation fighting blindness is in business to go out of business. you can help us. thank you. >> thank you very much. time for "squawk on the street." good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm jim faber with jim cramer. apple is hosting a big event today and is expected to unveil a new iphone among other much-awaited products.
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we are set up what may be a slightly lower open. let's get to the road map. it starts with phone. wallets, watches, apple's event kicks off in just a few hours. full coverage of what we will see, what it means for apple stock price hovering just shy of $100 a share. buy organic. general mills buy annie's for about $800 a share. mcdonald's sales down almost 4% worldwide. shares continue to struggle. let's get to carl who 0 is in california awaiting that apple event. >> david, thanks a lot. you guys and me, we've been through a lot of apple launches together. there are a couple of different things about this one today. first one is the i watch has been relatively leak-proof by most apple standards. the other difference is the venue. this is where steve jobs
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unveiled the mac 30 years ago. a watch would be tim cook's new product category as ceo. apple clearly believes there is something historic about today's event. what do we expect? let's go through the usual suspect. iphone 6 in a couple of sizes. they are calling the larger size an iphone 6l and iphone pro. that is what the street is looking at. a watch possibly, a flexible screen. payments are where things get interesting. could potentially, retailers open up transaction to apple, payment companies get much higher multiples than enterprise and consumer hardware companies. maybe a comment about security, and is there room for one more thing today? maybe a peek at a new apple television, 12-inch ipad. bear in mind not everybody is thrilled about today's event. pacific crest, "the only thing
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we know is every device that has been launched to date would have been considered a monumental flop by the standards of apple investors." apple shares don't do well the day of the launch. they are down on average. usually up 2% a week later and up about 3% a month later. big coverage today, guys. later this morning, walt mossberg, fred anderson, former ceo of app until 2002 and guy kawasaki. >> it's a great rundown. one of the things i hear about the watch, it's a platform. once you have it, people can design software for it. is it possible that the watch can dazzle without knowing what the developers are going to do? >> the watch is interesting from the payment standpoint, like we
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said, with retailers. the other thing know, and we talked about this many times, the health aspect. a lot of reports that apple is working with health care companies, much like they worked with the music companies before the launch of the ipod. is it possible new partnership with ibm helps manage all that data and works with insurance companies, hospitals around the country? that's the kind of preemptive work the company is famous for ahead of the launch of a product. >> that would be huge. >> i have my privacy questions on those things. >> right. >> specific to the here and now. it's interesting. when i talk to some money managers who try to track suppliers, things like that to determine what may actually be unveiled, they seem to also believe that the 5 1/2 screen, there is not going to be any inventory of that. they are not going to sell that right away, nor the i-watch. is that something you are hearing in terms of an expectation? >> there is a feeling that,
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especially with that sapphire glass, the company has not been able to produce enough glass, as many as they need to. interesting on the watch. one reason people guess we know so little about it is because it's a completely different supply chain. usually with the phones, we know most of the time pretty much what a phone is going to do the day of the launch because that supply chain has been well mined by analysts and supporters. a watch would be a new channel. that is one reason people suspect we are going into this relatively blind from an apple launch standpoint. >>em's going back to what you talked about with ibm. you get the iphone in, maybe then you get the desktop in. you ultimately rip out everybody's else's system. do we have any intel about whether ibm has been doing on the side some of this work? you're absolutely right. this watch, if it's health care, we only have half the equation. we need it to be seen by someone
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else. apple does not have the infrastructure to do that, but ibm does. >> i totally agree. that ibm thing has been totally overlooked. a lot has to do with creating mobile solutions for industry verticals. that is what cook and ginny talked about what they announced that. distribution of the inphone and the ipad to the enterprise, which is a whole new universe for apple. that's why a lot of people say don't worry too much about the weakness in the ipad. you've got a giant cloud-based company in ibm that is going to move that product into companies, not just consumers. that is a brand-new story for this company and one the bulls would argue is not reflective on the stock price. >> security being a key part of that, as well. you mentioned payments, carl. that is conceivably going to be important, at least when people pencil out what it might mean to eps. would be a high margin business. we'll see what they deliver in
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terms of how far they've gone down the chain with the card companies, banks and the like. at least people looking at that as potentially creating a new echo system. we'll see. i don't know. >> payments -- there's some who are not that enthusiastic. the amount they would have to charge would be minimal, they think. i've seen the statistic that would argue they would have to get 30% of all credit card volume to add 6 cents to earnings per share. that's the bear argument. they have 800 million i town accounts. that is a lot of credit card information. if they can convince retailers and partners security is no longer a problem, it sure would be nice to go into a store and buy jeans swiping your wife across an nec platform? that is more a debate today. that has to be sorted out through the course of the day. that is an important part of their pitch. >> a lot we'll learn. we'll be checking in with you
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repeatedly during the next few hours. >> doing a fabulous job. we know what time it is out there. bono? any surprise music guests? >> by the way, guys, i've not mentioned this big white box. i don't know if we can take it on two. it's here outside the event center, the flint center in kup cupertino. that is where you may play. that is the big scuttle butt. >> we'll get to you shortly. the one thing i can adhere, i'm hearing they've been more aggressive in their buyback lately. >> i did not know that. >> apple picked up the pace in the buyback. at the quarter end you do get the numbers on how many shares they bought back under the existing buyback. they've been more aggressive. >> a lot of people have been saying how can you stick with
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buy and hold apple? a lot has to do with where the stock, not is going to be a few days from now. carl gave you the one day, three-day week. it's where it it a year later. average up 39.8%. why is that? the answer is that when you launch a product, as you were saying earlier, do they have supply for whatever? you are talking about maybe this being a product that will not necessarily be for the holidays, but actually will be for next year. this could cannibalize the holidays. most money managers look at 2015 numbers. most traders look at the numbers for the next day. that's not going to be as worthwhile. investors at home have a very big advantage over the hedge funds here. they can sit back, look at the products, decide whether they want them and buy the stock and hold it. it's such a good strategy. >> at this point you have to wonder what shock value is left for apple?
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>> only shock value is how much it's going to cost me versus the amazon phone. judge, we'll talk about that. >> do they pay me to take that phone? >> 99 cents -- actually, prime is $ 99. there is a play there. >> there is an arbitrage. talking about arbitrage, takeover this morning. general mills boosting its prices in the natural and organic food market. the company agreed to buy annis for about $820 million, $46 a share, all cash. it's a 37% premium to annie's closing price monday. general mills expects to benefit from the strength in the meals and snack category. you talk so often about health and wellness as a theme. this company when it went public, incredible ipo and had issues since. >> 51% premium to the average of $30. it has been a bust. the trend is so powerful, it
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doesn't matter. you've got 42 times, equivalent of 172 for hain. 50 for white wave. >> 42 times forward earnings is what they are paying. >> people feel earnings are depressed. >> can you apply that multiple to hain? >> well, that is a $6 billion company for white way, $5 billion for hain. you would be better served had you bought those. pricing would be different. irwin simon has no desire to sell, nor does white wave. >> why are they willing to pay 42 times earnings? >> price has been depressed by an inventory destocking problem and 40% hike in the price of organic wheat, which is the principal ingredient. campbell has to be worried. secondary products, horizon from white wave is coming in. you are a shrewd leader of the
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releases. did you go through the difference between the general mills release and the annie's release? >> i did not. >> oh, my. it's hysterical. the general mill's release is not issued by -- you don't even have a quote by ken powell. >> i saw that. >> there are $300 million in revenue. >> it would seemingly barely move the needle. >> john foreacre, he says this acquisition will enable annie's to enter a new phase of growth and success. wait a second, i thought general mills is buying this. he says, we are excited about this strategic combination which will able annie's to expand the reach and breadth of our a natural products. didn't general mills buy it? they tell us that this literally is a partnership. they're partnering. this is the highlight of the
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pantry, my friend. >> they are talking to their customers. shareholders are getting $46 a share in cash. they don't care what you are planning, annie's. your customers may. these are the guys who favor gmos and all those other things. >> that's why they've got to keep it separate. the food chain is demanding annie's stay annie's. the release where jeff is talking about expand our presence through the brand and organic. general mills has cascadian and food should taste good brand. i would contend that's somewhat captain obvious. coming up, an exclusive with jeffrey gundlach.
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he likes to wander into comments on apple. good day to do that. home depot confirm as data breach. could the fallout be similar to what target went through? we'll get to mcdonald's. and the broader markets. hom
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payment data systems have been breached, saying the breach could potentially impact customers across the stores in u.s. and canada. the investigation is focused on april going forward. and says so far there is no evidence debit pin numbers were compromised. in a statement, frank blake says, "we apologize for the frustration and anxiety that causes our customers. i want to thank them for their patience and support as we work through this issue." this is a big one, jim. we highlighted it last week. it was originally in the security newsletter. this is the first time home depot has come out. we don't have a lot of details.
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there is speculation begin the size of their credit card base and customer traffic, and how long it went on that it's bigger than target. >> yeah. they said the customers seem unconcerned. they don't even know yet. target, on the one hand just threw themselves on the breach sword. then it hurt the numbers. home depot is trying to, if there is a strategy, the strategy seems to low key it so people don't panic and don't start going to lowe's. >> it's interesting target, grant it it was a big one and earlier than this one and we have to get accustomed to these breaches. eastern european criminal gangs or whatever, whomever may be behind it, but target got crushed. not in the stock market as much, but public opinion. these guys are just going to escape? >> worst possible time, holiday season.
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we've seen one breach after another. we are now breach fatigued. we believe there is anything that is not sacred. we expect to be hacked everywhere and every place. i think that was, that tim cook captured that well saying, why don't you put a more difficult password, at the same time home depot brought in symantec. i don't regard them as the premier company. i would have brought in palo alto. >> you mentioned breach fatigue. one has to wonder. if any company has the resources conceivably to put against a problem like this, it would seem to be home depot. this is an enormous company. i can believe it if you are not a mom and pop retailer, but smaller chains. these are the biggest guys out there they are not spending the money on monitoring their system? >> the banks are so hackable.
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you look at the spending, look at the revenues of palo alto, which i regard as the best. revenues are so small versus what needs to be spent. doesn't that say it all? people are not focused on this issue. they won't be until they wake up and see they have zero balance or they bought a power tool in california. >> it's been some time from now i picked up from board members that it is a board level issue. that was not the case a couple of years ago. my reporting has been focused much more on chinese cyber crime, stealing intellectual property, becoming a board level issue. this clearly is, too. >> jack spoke about it differing alpha. i had to interview him. my first reaction was gibb them that story about breaching. no. no. someone, we don't know -- remember, we only know the ones of the people who weren't good and got caught. we don't have the ones of the people that are ongoing and
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fooling everybody. we are only seeing the morons who do this. the smart guys, we don't know about. >> right. a lot of times they are getting away with it. again, this went on from april until it was revealed in a publication. >> i would like frank to come on and say here is what we are really doing. they are not doing it that way. up next, the mad dash from jim cramer as we count down to the opening bell. for you, success is a starting gate, not a finish line. for you, the ats isn't just a trophy. it's a sleek, chiseled instrument of your ambition. and for you, the winner's circle is just another pit stop, because you'll always be... ...coding it... ...torching it... ...chopping it...
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that's the music for the mad dash. six minutes for the opening bell here. want to talk mcdonald's. >> i want to write down two numbers. that number and this number. sales down 4%. dividend, 3.5%. dividend is going to trump sales. this stock is going to find a bottom here. yum had horrendous numbers, finished the day at $72. people are starting to get china supply fatigue. all i'm saying is mcdonald's has a dividend. people keep feeling mr. thompson is going to wake up one day and say we've got a balance sheet that is going to allow us to do a lot of things.
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people don't sell mcdonald's where you would expect begin the fact sales were so horrendous. >> u.s. comp sales down 3.2% amid continuing broad-based challenges. this is what the company has written in its press release. favorites in conjunction with mcdonald's cup sponsorship. france and uk better than expected. >> what's interesting, if it's challenging for mcdonald's, should it be challenging for the company that mcdonald's spawned, chipotle up 17%. this is about natural and organic. we might as well be talking about annie's, white wave and hain. it's good googling, seeing what's in food. >> up 17% is amazing. >> this is what younger people directly see a cause and effect between a lot of things they put in their body and getting sick.
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older people don't understand this trade and think, you give me a break? mcdonald's is inexpensive. people will go there. people don't regard it inexpensive versus healthy. >> a lot of people still go to mcdonald's. >> soda, sodium-filled offerings. a lot of these things are about cancer, heart disease and the idea of linkage. people google bad food and see what it causes. >> your i-watch will start to beach. >> you stole that from me. >> all right. opening bell coming up. [ male announcer ] what if a small company
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bell set to ring in 40 seconds on this apple product day. >> and now natural organic day. i see hain sneaking over. annie's 70% was short. >> over here at the big board, ringing that opening bell. industrial and technology company johnson control. >> underperformed the group. >> hvac in europe has been disappointing. >> over at the nasdaq, bioblast pharma focuses on rare genetic diseases. back at hq, the realtime exchange does look like a negative open with four components of the s&p in the red. by a good amount. 2/3 to 1/3. that is my take. >> this market yesterday was led down by the oils. >> yes. >> nasdaq was up yesterday
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because of netflix which got a target raise today and because of a couple of stocks that are involved in, i'm going to say it. automatic driving. mobile eye, movies, go pro. these are my speculative favorites. >> they replaced liquid lumber. tractor supply. >> thank you for mentioning other stocks that captured the moment. people don't understand at home we are not bei we are being reminiscent. what will i take knowledge of gm, tesla, mobile eye go to the remember site. israeli company. >> four weeks ago they went public right here. you could have bought all you wanted at a lot lower. >> it's one of the most exciting companies. that's the point i'm getting. a lot of people don't like to hear excitement and stocks.
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we are all remembering 2000. >> it does worry me a little bit. it's gone parabolic. >> so has go pro. go pro is an eco system. it's heavy shorted. >> $11.5 million market cap. their original projection was to be a $4 billion market cap company. >> i'm raising price target immediately on that. >> should i be concerned here if i'm stepping back in a not rising rate environment, but with the prospect of it eventually with the europe slowing dramatically, with china not -- maybe the speculative creep. i've got alibaba coming up around the block. >> that's why you need to be skeptical and concerned. as long as go pro and mobile light and it is lumber liquidat liquidators. when you begin to get a $20 billion, $30 billion offering that goes to premium, you start
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thinking maybe we are getting ahead. we need to see a lot more go pros and mobilize before i'm freaking out. a lot more. >> okay. you are not going to freak out. >> not yet. not yet. >> you don't have market fatigue. you have china -- breach fatigue. >> food chain supply fatigue. i do not have mobile fatigue because it is a way to make movies and to avoid collisions. go pro is -- i remember advent. when certain companies came out and you said, i could make a movie. go to the go pro site. it's an accessory and software play. these are software companies. that's where people get it wrong. >> as we noted, netflix is up, let's call it 1% on the dramatic increase in target. was it rbc? >> this is a note. i think one of the best notes out there by pacific crest.
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they are now launching in germany, france, belgium, switzerland, austria, luxembourg in late september. people like netflix more in europe than they like here. they like it more. that's one of the things people misjudged. that the take rate from netflix is higher over in europe. that's a surprise. that's what's behind these rapid upgrades you are seeing. >> approaching a $30 billion market value. >> it could have been bought for $10 billion with karl icahn. >> if you want to own the living room, own networks. keurig is the witkitchen.
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>> i also think tesla. >> mobile eye. i'm not being facetious. the market is clustering around a couple high growth stocks, which is not what you want to see. you want to see the airlines go, the transports go and see tech going up, oils going up. we are not getting an industrials rally. it's a limited rally which those stocks would come down. you need to raise capital for alibaba. >> that rally certainly extended to facebook, which yesterday eclipsed a $200 billion market value as we prepare for alibaba, which may approach $200 billion once it goes public. it will not price at $200 billion but may price as high as $165. you might even -- you don't want to do what facebook did which is increase the size of the offering and the price. >> you want a synchrony.
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there are a huge number of upgrades today. you've got to have your hats off to a company that manages a large deal. visa did it well a couple of years. >> we noted day one that it had not performed well. as you mentioned a number of times including today, that thing has been a rocket. we are not talking about huge growth company here. >> you have jpmorgan, credit suisse, barclays and deutsche saying it's a hold. >> it's a hold. apple, which we will be speaking about a bit today. you may hear the name a couple of times on our radar. is up. it is up a little less than 1% this morning. the question is, is it possible they are going to surprise us
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with something that we don't know about? it's not going to be a tv. we would have heard about that. >> that would be real showmanship if they do that. >> that would be great. in a white box. >> if they have something dramatic. that is not why i want people in. >> doubtful that is the case, don't you think at this point? >> we are going to get a wearable. >> the ceo, chairman and founder of starbucks told me that people really want mobile wallet. starbucks has been doing it. they are technologically advanced. you need visa, you need mastercard and american express. if apple cobbled together that and apple cobbled ibm on the health care side for the watch, it's the partners. remember, in the end, apple -- if a bear were chasing us, i don't need to outrun the bear, i need to outrun you. you are samsung.
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you are blackberry. i'm outrunning you, let the bear eat you and i'll do just fine, yogi. >> you are going to let the bear eat me? >> yes, bubu. >> have we ever established the relationship between yogi and bubu? i always assumed he was the father. >> i'll have to go to yellystone national park. the best way to stop is never to stop. >> that is exactly right. we mentioned oils to start. let's end there, as well. >> there is a great rbn is my expert. they have a great piece talking about the woodbine and eagleford. voluminous oil about to be shipped out. another reason to buy apc and apa. secondly i think, wow, supply.
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we've got to start exporting. >> "new york times" got the memo. front page story about manufacturing. renaissance as a result of low energy costs and things related to getting the gas out of the ground. >> we are going to go out to the utica shale in ohio. last thing i expected was not to be able to get a hotel room. it's that booming. there are no hotel rooms in the heartland. what is hoping the ramada. >> still an underreported story, despite the fact you have been amazing on it. >> i'm just getting started on this story. when they get the piping through and start sending the condensate out. mexico was the biggest exporter of oil and gas. canada has a lot. the manufacturing coming to
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texas, every day you'll read about a new plant, texas, louisiana. this is why our unemployment is going down, the ohio employment number in "the new york times" was less than 6%. >> and why the manufacturing number continues to go up. >> let's get to bob on the floor. >> on the down side, important thing asia was mixed. europe motionally fractioned to the down side. bonds are getting hit pretty bad in europe. when stock traders bring this ep to me, pay attention. they are talking about it this morning. spain getting clobbered. yields up 7%. a lot of concerns with scottish referendums, increasing calls from independence from other separatist regions. german, spain finance minister talking about reaching the limits of their power. there is power struggle with the european central banks. other issues. bottom line is yields are up across the board over in europe.
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want to talk about the ipo market. the question i had yesterday, we've got a day for alibaba, what about other ipos? it's been an abundant ipo market. i'm waiting for big names. next week all i see is alibaba and six small biotech companies. yesterday citizens financial filed for a date. that is a respected northeast bank. dave and buster's filed. we don't have a date or terms. they said about $100 million. a troubled company. we are waiting for a date from them. i do not see is where is the tech deals? where is box? nothing from them. no date, no terms. where is go daddy, for example? line is that huge japanese company, sort of the what's app of japan. that is a big deal sitting out there. haven't heard a lot. i don't know if it's because they are waiting for alibaba to clear or tech deals haven't done that well this year. a lot of these ipo deals haven't done well.
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show you one. we spent a lot of time on castlight health. this is now $12. this was supposed to revolutionize apps in the health tech area went as high as $40 then went to the down side. that may be a problem for tech companies. . you talked about apple. i've been a big apple user over a decade. i will make two points i think are really important. i'm not excited about iphone 6. i care about mobile payments. digital wallet hasn't done that well. apple can make a big dent in the merchant processing. acting as the merchant processor. that's the heart of the mobile payment thing. you can do that with that near field communication ideas they've been working on that allows mobile devices to communicate by radio. take a little slice of all the
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transactions. for the iwatch, obviously they've got the health kit, that online health platform. clearly they are going to use that. biometric identification. unique pulses, unique heart beats. if you can use that to positively identify who you are, the i watch talks to the iphone and tells it you are the person you claim to be. then you use it in mobile payments. you don't need touch i.d. you've got all sorts of positive i.d. you can eliminate potentially passwords. to me as an user, that is exciting. that could indicate a huge new revenue stream for them. is apple overpriced? i don't know. every analyst on the street knows that they are trading at about $15, $15.50 forward earnings. that is the high range apple historically traded at. they've been $9 to $15 several years now.
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we are trading at the top end of the range. my hope and expectation is that these are going to open two big revenue streams for apple. back to you. >> i agree. i say don't trade it. coming up, an exclusive with double line capital jeffrey gundlach. what does he see ahead for bond yields, the dollar rally, the fed? plus the countdown to apple's product launch. a live interview with former ceo john scully.
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welcome back. alibaba's road show moves toe boston today. many would say that's where the big money is. not talking a lot of hedge funds. there are a lot of hedge funds
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there. it's not just fidelity. you've got a lot of the big mutual fund complexes there. >> i'm so glad you mentioned it. that's where i would pitch this story if i were the people who want to get it in the right hands. >> and they will be making their presentations. yesterday in new york, people who attended the road show which jack showed up, a lot of questions about transparency, about his acquisition plans and/or what his thinking is about what he is buying sports teams and the like. perhaps they'll get more on the pure financial side of the equation this morning in boston. at this point from what i hear, people who run portfolios in boston, for example, are not displeased with the idea of pricing at $160 billion to $170 billion. calling that at least somewhat reasonable leaving a bit for them to at least hope they'll
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see in terms of appreciation in the near term, not just over the longer term. you've got to watch all the management sometimes can get very excited by what they are hearing from investors, and what they are seeing in the press, and fall into the facebook problem. been no problem since. when they raised and increased. >> raised and increased same time it started dawning on people they don't have a mobile strategy. how good is the alibaba mobile strategy? i don't know how good it is. >> the take rate -- there you've got toe look at take rate versus gmv. runs around 3%. mobile is a lower number. >> what's incredible, you can monitor the enthusiasm by looking at yahoo. yesterday -- you know i feel yahoo has been a buy. mostly because i feel yahoo, even after tax, talking about $5 billion. you can reinvent a company. you can buy a yelp. you can become more mobile.
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more travel and leisure site oriented. >> that move is extraordinary. it's not as though it was unfamiliar territory, the idea alibaba would be a $200 billion market cap company eventually. here you are, you get a price range that is below, some were thinking they could list it at that level. yet yahoo has done nothing but go up every day. except today. >> a lot of people look at yahoo and say maybe it's not worth $11 billion. i think that is a foolish way to look at yahoo. it is not a takeover target. it's capital allocation story. if they use that capital shrewdly and reinvent the company with a more mobile basis, i think people say how are we only paying $11 billion for this market cap company? marissa meyer, people are saying, show me the money. when you have a wind fall, you can become another company or
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you can buy a huge amount of stock. therefore, i don't think the move is wrong. >> you don't. >> no i don't. >> of course, you have no idea what they are going to choose to do with the money. >> no. are they going to be smart stewards? i think they ended up buying a lot of stock at a very good price versus a lot of buybacks i heard where the stock was stagnant. before we criticize them, maybe we can take a page from tim cook. when did tim cook get on fire with apple when he started the buyback? the key piece of information i heard this morning and why i think apple is up is sheer breaking of the news apple has been in there buying stock. very good story. >> they've seen apple more aggressive in its buyback. we are not saying they are going beyond that. >> you don't step up -- i remember speaking to the company. here is what i think you have to do. don't use a buy back on auto pilot. many people criticize the exxon
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buyback, a guy comes in every day and says buy me a million shares. get aggressive when the stock comes in. and/or aggressive when you think you have something good coming. >> amen. talking about exciting, we'll start talking trade.
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time to start trading with cramer. >> in all the work i've done since '79, i find when i hear a cfo resigns, i hate it. more important than a cfo. i hate it when the numbers keeper resigns. kimberly ross resigned from avon to be the cfo of baker hughes, very well-run company. citi downgrades on this. you cannot have something like this just be thrown out there and not be skeptical about what's really happening at avon which has been tremendous. sherry mccoy, very well respected ceo came in there. fred hassan suddenly resigns.
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but the cfo resignation say those bottom-fishing in avon, it's too early. not unlike some other companies we used to talk about being too early. >> yes, indeed. zynga. >> be very careful. i feel like we are at a moment here where we were talking about it's not apple, it's alibaba. this market is overwhelmed by supply. that broke the market in february and march. we cannot have an overwhelming amount of supply coming to the market. that's how we get sales in all the exciting stocks people are into. there isn't, if alibaba is up sized, you and i are exactly, you raised the point about facebook. that was about up sizing the supply in price. >> i do not believe that will happen. we'll see. >> if we do, this show is going to be very different then. >> what have we got on "mad" tonight? >> i'm going to analyze apple in a way we haven't heard about
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yet. we'll be talking about the annie's deal. the implications for the industry. >> great. which are grave for the consumer package industry. >> grave. see you back here tomorrow morning. >> thank you, pal. >> let's go to simon hobbs. >> good morning. this show will continue live from the location of the big apple product launch today. the foremost ceo john sculley will join us. the king of bonds jeffrey gundlach will be live with us at 9:00. mahaney will be here. opinions. there's no shortage in this world. who do you trust?
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and a gentle wavelike motion... aahhh- ahhhhhh. liberate your spine, ahhh-ahhhhhh aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. ahh! four days? yep. find out how fast aflac can pay you, at aflac.com. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.
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just three hours away from apple's big reveal at its event in kuper tino. >> and john gundlach's exclusive interview.
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>> we kick off on a big day like this in cupertino. event set to start in about three hours' time. we are just hearing in our ears they may be about to update the apple website. i don't know what you are hearing out there. >> well, the online store did go offline as it normally does on launch days. we are expecting it to get refreshed in the next hour or two perhaps. of course, today's the big day. the company that brought you the modern pc, the smart phone, the definitive tablet gets a chance to make good on its promise the product lifeline is the best in the past 25 years. this has been a big year for apple. the beats acquisition closed.
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now cfo angela ahrendts hired to run retail and the ibm partnership on the enterprice. it's still about the iphone. smart phones are more than half of revenue. take a hook at the opening weekend of some of these past launches. every launch that is the opening three-day weekend since the iphone 3 has been an improvement on the one before some say this is the most presentation of steve cooks' career. did he inherit that magic touch when it comes to innovation or not? this would be his first new product category if they
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announce a watch today. by the way, we are just a few weeks away from the third anniversary of steve jobs' death on october 5, 2011. we'll watch the online store. apparently some lines are forming here at the flint center. as you said, that big event just a few hours away. >> they sort of raised the expectations and hopes themselves with eddie making that comment, this is the best product pipeline he's seen in the history of apple. what do you hear from disappointment in the fact apple is playing ketchup game in wearable devices and large screen iphones? there is still skepticism. >> the conference call in june took everybody by surprise. why raise the bar going into what obviously, as you said, is a sea of skepticism? on the other hand, the watch compared to past apple events, we know very little about. there haven't been photos that
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have leaked online, per se. a couple of random copyright pages. especially if cook does a one more thing at the end, tries to show some revamped apple tv or a larger ipad or something we haven't considered yet. i think there is cushion there for surprise. >> we should mention payments. obviously, everybody is talking about the possibility that we do get electronic payments and if that's the in the iwatch. we now believe youtube is going to play the event today. they had a relationship with steve jobs and apple. how do we think youtube will fit in with the coming announcement?
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>> in the world of music, there is no band more associated with apple than u-2. there's been speculation that the six could come preloaded with some new music by u-2. we don't know. there is speculation they might perform in this giant white cube behind us here on media row at the flint center in cupertino. bonner has a long record with not only apple but steve jobs. >> in your your element, carl. see new a bit there with u-2 in cupertino. let's talk about how today's event could be that make or break moments. joining us here at post nine is john sculley out with a new book called "moonshot, game-changing strategies to build billion dollar businesses." he is former ceo of pepsi and
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co-founder of fitness wearables. you have been there. you were the ceo for ten years up to 1993. everybody is framing this as tim cook's moment. do you agree with that assessment? >> absolutely. this is tim book's moment. he told us almost 1 1/2 years ago he was getting ready for something big. this is it. i wondered, as many people have, whether apple could do a creative leap. i don't think it's going to be the iphone 6 that is a phenomenal product. i think mobile payments may well be the sleeper today. everyone knows that's the holy grail for e-commerce. apple has been putting together the pieces. the most important piece are 800 million credit card scored iphone users. combine that with one touch for
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the biomettic security, combine that with nfc which is high security and tie in the announcements apple said they are going to make with the major credit card companies, major retailers. >> how do they interact with the outside world with payments and wearables? a lot of success of the iphone is due to apps. outside people came in and did stuff with the functionality. if you are going to talk about wearables, is there one watch or could you go out in a different way with the fashion industry or with nike and you say, you create what it looks like. we'll provide what goes inside. >> i think it will be for the iphone. >> all the buttons on your sleeve.
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where do they take that? >> what tim cook has done is recruited some of the best fashion executives in the world. my sense is apple follows steve jobs' philosophy. technology should be beautiful or invisible. apple does a great job of both. they make the technologies look beautiful, but they make the user experience as simple as possible. that's making it invisible. i think they won't move from that basic premise. that's what apple is all about. >> earlier in the year, the conventional thining was apple has become a services company, a software company. now everybody is talking about watches and phones again. which is it? is it an either/or? why do we keep pivoting between the two? >> i think a lot of us who know apple well never had that
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opinion. apple was able to make the trade-offs. at the worldwide developer conference, they announced they are going to have continuity which means the devices are going to be connected even more seamlessly and better and better. that is a differentiator from samsung. apple is moving into vertical platforms that is going to do something else samsung doesn't do as well. the combination of software and hardware working together. vertical platforms, payments, health kit, smart homes. these are all examples where apple can start to, i think, pull away from samsung in a way hard for samsung to follow. >> do you think when they have to bring in partners like a health care company on a watch or can they recreate the margic they made to charge 99 cents a
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song? >> one of the things i don't think steve jobs gets as much recognition for as he deserves, not only was he a brilliant conceptual designer, but he was probably the world's best negotiator. he negotiated contracts with the music industry no one thought was possible. same thing with at&t when he launched the iphone. i do think being able to tie in the domain areas of expertise, whether it be health care or payments like credit card companies, is absolutely essential for apple. if they are going to build up app stores for mobile payments, they have to have partners no way they can do it otherwise. >> the whole idea of the cannibalization, building something better and bigger, with it set to release today, the wearable, the iwatch, whatever it is, is that something for the post iphone world or is it going to be a
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companion iphone piece? does that matter? >> we had a saying, we sell to the people who love us. if you look at people who buy apple products, they buy more than one they want a whole family of apple products. whatever the smart watch happens to be called, what it looks like, if it's cool, which i'm sure it will be, it will be sold on the base of people who bought iphones and mac books and other products. >> they always want more. john sculley. let's send it over to don. we are watching shares of dick's sporting goods. stock is moving down after wells fargo downgrades the share to market perform from prior outperform rating saying the stock is fairly valued with little meaningful upside potential. the stock is off their session lows. down by about a percent.
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for the year, the stock lost about 1/5 of its value. >> big day for cnbc. up next, an exclusive interview with doubleline's jeff gundlach to talk bonds, housing and that apple trade. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities.
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earlier this year doubleline
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ceo gundlach said the dollar was likely over. doubleline's total return outpacing its peers and has seen inflows for the last seven months. joining me is the man himself, jeffrey gundlach. you turned it around, didn't you, in terms of that interest rate call. 2013 was not that good when it came to the bonds this. year has been very good to you. does it keep up? >> i think bonds are going to remain fairly stable this year. obviously, we started the year, there was overwhelming consensus rates are going to rise. it's fun to google interest rates will fall in 2014 and see what you get. you get a whole bunch of hits to talk about sell your bonds immediately, rates are going to rise. bond prices are going to fall. you get a hit that says gundlach says rates will fall in 2014. i thought they would go down to about 230, 240. i do webcasts every quarter or so. i'm doing one this afternoon at
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4:15 eastern. you can find log-in at doublelinefunds.com. rates will range on the ten year at 2.2 to 2.8%. today as we sit here, they are literally exactly at the mid point of that band 2.2% to 2.8%. >> is the market not appreciating janet yellen who has been warning since june the fed could raise rates if things start to improve in these very months we are in and perhaps not taking it as seriously? >> i don't hear janet yellen saying that. i hear a lot of her associates saying that. she seems to be more concocting excuses why not to raise interest rates. i don't think janet yellen wants to raise interest rates and there is not much of a reason. >> why isn't there a reason to raise interest rates? >> what about the negative 2 gdp print? we don't like to think about the
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negative ones. first half of this year, gdp was about 1%. true to form the last three, four years, economists all believed as a consensus view point the economy would grow at 3%. that was what started at this year. then it got downgraded to 1.7%. now looks like it might come in in the low 2% again. the gdp growth today is no different, slightly less than it was in 2012. 2012 nobody was talking about the economy being too strong, that interest rates needed to rise. in september 2012 was when we embarked on qe-3, $85 billion of bond buying per month. if the economy was too weak in 2012 to raise rates and needed stimulus support, why is lower gdp today needing higher rates? >> when we come back to this conversation on bonds which you have so many times every day, not to mention later on your webcast, where do we stay?
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around here to 3%? is that the new normal or the old normal? >> i think it's going to be driven. what's happening in recent weeks and months and recent days like today is u.s. interest rates seem to be driven, not by attitude so much by the fed as people talk about, they seem to be driven more by european interest rates. european interest rates rose fairly sharply in the periphery last night. german rates peaked over 1%. >> it's shocking. >> a rate of a big 1%. you can get 1% on the three-year treasury, too. the thing pulling u.s. interest rates down driving relative to european rates, they tower over the rates in countries like france at 1.5% rate. >> italy and spain are below us. >> surprisingly. that seems hard to believe. it seems like the's a very easy trade not to own spanish bonds
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when you pick up a higher yield in u.s. bonds. the u.s. dollar has been killing it. the u.s. dollar finally started to strengthen in a major way. it bottomed out in 2011, but had been painfully rangebound. >> is that a further tail wind for u.s. treasuries? >> of course it's a tail wind for u.s. treasuries. if you are a european investor, it's a no-brainer. you get a higher yield. there is good reason to believe the dollar will remain strong. >> why? >> u.s. economy is stronger by far than the european economy. we still have many problems, growing problems in geopolitical world which tends to support the dollar. the latest thing which is somewhat important is the scottish succession deal. the euro is all based upon a hope of unity and cooperation. they've done a good job when there were rifts and worries back in 2011, in particular, the euro might have a problem. they did a good job keeping it
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together. if there is succession going on. it's not central to the euro, that is a regional idea what about catalonia and other things in the news. >> are you watching that vote closely? >> i think it will be a no vote, but you have to watch it closely. it is the reason, i think, rates rose in the euro zone last night. i think what is going to happen. it went to a 51%, let's secede vote in the polls. when people have to pull the lever, they lose their rhetoric and say, what i am doing here if we secede from the uk? i think it will go down. the problem is, it's not going to go down in a way that is overwhelming. so the issue of what's going to happen with this happy family in europe and even in the uk will linger on, i think. i think that's going to probably mean that the bottom may be this
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year for european rates, the bottom is probably in for u.s. rates if we go back to the bigger picture, the low u.s. rates was in july 2012. u.s. rates are rising. they are just rising very slowly. i think that is going to remain the case for a couple more years. >> couple more years. you are not in that camp that says, be careful for that perhaps violent rise that seems somewhat unexpected? that will dislocate a lot of asset classes, with everybody saying it's a reflection of strength in the u.s. economy, all these strategists, that it will bring a lot of pain, you are not a believer? >> i'm not a believer. i think the fed follows the long end of the market a lot more than people want to recognize. i've been at this game 30 years. the fed is not likely to raise rates if the long end is stable, let alone being lower than it was year end. what i find fascinating, this year the yield curve has flattened. long rates have come down. short rates gone up.
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it almost seems like the action of the bond market in recent days and weeks is suggesting something truly bizarre. that is that if the fed raises interest rates, the yield curve might flatten at 3%. because what ends up happening, when economic data comes out weak like the employment report was weak last friday, you see the long end doesn't do much in terms of rallying. the short end rallies. that must be because people think the fed is going to be low longer. then when data comes out that's strong, you see the lower end of the yield curve going up in rate. the long end, it's almost like the long end likes good economic data because it thinks the fed may make a huge mistake and start doing what people are fearful of or predicting, raising rates in the first quarter of 2015, which might lead, would be the message of the bond market, i'm just the interpreter here, not saying this is necessarily my macroeconomic analysis.
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if you read the tea leaves of the bond market, if the fed raises rates moderately like to 1%, 2%, maybe the economy can't take it. >> housing. we may need to carry over this conversation to after the break. i saw you in may. you made a call. short the home builders. >> home builders are down since may. >> that's my point. is that trade played out or do you think there is more to go? >> the thing about that trade is it worked. the s&p, the beta of stocks has been pretty rewarding. the best trade would have been to be short the home builders and long the s&p 500 because it's really a relativistic trade. home builders will continue to disappoint. there was disappointing news out of some of the home builder individual names. >> toll brothers. a decent number but -- >> look at the guidance.
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the point i made in may that i'm committed to, people are misinterpreting the prospects for the home builders, new home sales, single family home sales. not multifamily, which i think is clearly, fairly robust. they are making a demographic shift of preferences and economics. housing isn't nearly as affordable as people think. home prices are up a lot. interest rates are up a lot. not a lot, but moderately from the bottom. if you think they are going to rise based on a stronger economy, if you have rising home prices and rising interest rates, even if it's moderate, that's a horrible recipe for affordability. beyond that, young people as we all know are underemployed, living in their parents' basement, can't get a job, tons of student loan debt. people to buy a home need a down payment. old fashioned concept that went out the window about eight years
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ago. it's back. how are you going to get a down payment when you are underemployed, rents are going up, student loan debt, wages aren't rising. if you look at all the metrics of how, what makes homes attractive and affordable, they are not in place like they were ten years ago. i make the case they never will again. i don't think you'll see single family housing starts hit $1.5 million ever again in my career. not one time. >> okay. we'll have a lot more uplifting thoughts with jeffrey gundlach. we have breaking news out of washington. john harwick. >> house speaker john boehner made news back to work in his washington press conference. there will be an extension, temporarily of the export/imbank. that's been in question. conservatives were trying to kill it as an example of crony
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capitalism. ken mccarthy signalled after taking that job when eric cantor was defeated, ken mccarthy said he was exposed to extending it. john boehner said he talked to general henserling of texas and said he agreed there will be a temporary extension. this is consistent with the house's desire to make a few waves as possible before going back to holding election they think is shaping up well for republicans. they are going to extend government funding and the leadership indicated they will get that done, as well. you can bet the senate is going to both extend government funding, avoid a shutdown and extend that xm bank. >> thanks, john. up next, a lot more with doubleline's jeffrey gundlach. e
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welcome back. we are joined on set by jeffrey gundlach. >> you thought the dollar looked like it would continue to go strong. the japanese yen hit the lowest level since september 2008. does that trade have more to run? >> i think so. what was surprising about the yen, ahead of that huge move in 2013 through may of 2013, from 2012 to 2013. went absolutely flatlined in a way that looks like it's manipulated. it stayed at $102 day after day. it was strong when it was at $100 and weak at $103. i think this breakdown in the yen has pretty high momentum. i wouldn't be surprised to see the yen get substantially
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weaker. >> like what level? >> well, i'm going to say a crazy number. >> do it. >> i'm doing this for a long-term point of view. the yen over long term, i mean years here, is going to $200. $106, okay. we are on our way. >> like ten years? >> i think less than ten years. maybe three to five years. there is nothing to do but debase the currency. they have among the worse demographics in the world. they are importing energy, unless they go back to nuclear. they have to import their energy. they have negative birth rate. they have huge government debt. i think all you have is debasing. >> people want to talk about apple and tesla. before we leave the central premise what you are saying here. interest rates in this country will only rise gradually over the next couple of years, your
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reading of the bond market is it might not be able to take a 1%, 2% or the economy may not be able to take a 1%, 2% interest rate rise from the fed. are you laying out a scenario similar to a depression? surely at some point the fed has to exit in order to come back in and stimulate the economy when we turn down again? >> the best logic for raising rates is what you said, let's go to 2%. at least we have ability to stimulate on the way down. the bond market seems to be telling the message if you are going to raise interest rates, the economy could weaken. we might run into a recession first. one thing people don't think about which is really important, we never really financed the 2012, 2013 budget deficit. the fed bought it. those bonds are going to mature
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one of these days. they start maturing a few years from now, 2019, 2020. that is the time period when the entitlement programs go from copacetic period, which we are in now. >> they come down. >> in 2017 social security, medicare aren't that bad, but they hockey stick-back up. right at the time when the fed starts having its bonds mature. they have to buy them again, which means qe has to come back in 2020 or else somebody has to buy those bonds. the problem is demographics of many countries that have been buyers of our bond, japan back in the day, china recently, don't support them buying them. the scenario of rates are going to get out of control on the up side is a plausible scenario, but not for another five years
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or so i believe that it will cause a negative movement that will lead up to fears of deflation. fears of deflation that end up being in requirement of some sort of fairly radical policy of inflation. >> what do you do, buy gold? >> not now. that's way -- >> don't tell us 2020 is five years away. that feels like ten minutes. >> don't tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy it. i did a study if perfect foresight, if you knew with certainty what was going to be the best set over five iyeyears it's amazing how lousy returns are. even though you would be right, would you lose your clients. after two years of lousy returns, everybody would think you lost your touch. >> we've got to do a lightning
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round on stocks. let's start with chipotle. i've gotten tweets saying you've been dead wrong. >> totally wrong. it's all based on valuation. it's horribly overvalued. cheap getting cheaper, rich getting richer. >> apple. >> same today as it was in 2012. it's a fantastic study in sentiment shifts when very little happened at the company. everybody loved it at $206 in 2012 then hated it. i sold it at $610. i think apple looks exactly like it did before. it's overbelieved. they have tremendous optimistic guidance. people love it. the innovation has been, what i predicted back in 2012. tutti-frutti colors, slightly bigger screens. yes, they are doing fairly well
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and bullish about the new rollout, but i think that's priced into the stock. i would sell it. >> finally on buying the buffalo bills. >> buffalo bills, i hear today are potentially going to be an announcement in a day or two. i'm hopeful the buyer keeps them in buffalo. >> it's not going to be you? >> i may be involved, i may not be involved. my involvement has been completely centered around keeping them in buffalo. i may continue to have involvement in that area. >> you may be involved in keeping them in buffalo with a group that may announce they are buying. >> i won't be a majority owner, but may be involved with the ownership team if we are sure they will keep them in buffalo. >> go bills. >> jeffrey gundlach, doubleline capital. >> we are live in cupertino outside the apple event as we count you down to today's big reveal. what does apple have up its sleeve?
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we are just an hour into trade. here are the stories we are watching at 7:39 on the west coast, 10:39 on wall street. mcdonald's hit a one-year low after reporting falling sales at established restaurants across
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all regions in august. the fifth such drop since ceo don thompson took over in july 2012. general mills agreeing to buy annie's for $820 million or $46 a share in cash. a 37% premium to annie's closing price yesterday. home depot confirming its payment data systems have been breached, saying the breach could potentially impact customers at its stores across this country and canada. home depot ceo frank blake saying we apologize for the frustration and anxiety this is causing our customers. >> we are just about 2 1/2 hours away from apple's big reveal at its event in cupertino. carl is outside with josh lipton. we just heard from jeffrey gundlach, not a fan. he says it's sentiment, overhyped and overloved. >> we heard that. "i would sell it" are his words. about 2 1/2 hours away from the
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event. we'll talk about hardware all afternoon. our focus is about tim cook, the ceo and man you interviewed him already and have gotten to know his style. walk us through how he's done so far as ceo. >> i think there's different ways to gauge that. one is financial metrics. that is maybe the most direct. you can say since he took over in august 2011, stock's up 85%, about 3%, 4% from a record. look at the top line, revenue's up 65%. there are other ways, as well. having gotten to know tim since i've been out here, he does have a specific manage pavement style. people are struck by he is approachable and modest. it takes a very comfortable, confident ceo to welcome the number of big-name personalities he has into cupertino. at the end of the day it is about events like today, about having faith and confidence in that product pipeline.
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>> i remember when he took over the job, someone wrote tim cook was steve jobs' greatest creation. he was hand-picked, a logistics guy, a supply chain guy. over time, you have to become the product guy and the salesman jobs was, too. >> right. i think that's true. to the point of what he is today, which is a product, that's what he is judged on. they have certainly been very confident at what they are going to deliver today, whether it was apple's best pipeline in decades. i asked bhim that? he laughed and said i agree with eddie. expectations are high. we'll find out whether consumers and investors share that confidence. >> you interviewed eddie and cook the day of that partnership. that is going to be extremely important if apple is do for example to attack the enterprise the way they have historically attacked the consumer. >> it is somewhat overlooked.
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when i spoke with tim cook about that, there was a lot of excitement. he brought up certain examples how a pilot right now no longer needs those manuals. you have a tablet and ipad. you have a suite of apps. today we are so focused on the consumer, the iphone, the possible wearable device, mobile payments. clearly, when you spoke to tim during that interview, enterprise front and center in terms of his ambitions down the road. >> busy afternoon headed our way. back to you from two guys in front of a big white box. >> thank you very much. up next on the program, the nfl coming under serious criticism of its handling of ray rice. what is next for the lead and commissioner roger goodell.
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take a look at the financial sector. one of the worst performing. don is back at hq. >> 9-10 are in the red today. leading what it lower is the big banks. morgan stanley, goldman sachs, state street, jpmorgan, citigroup. all to the down side here. tough day for the overall financial sector. only one or two stocks in the entire sector within the s&p 500 is in the green right now. so yes, financials one of the worst performers today. it is up about 6% year-to-date.
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back over to you. >> underperforming in the broader market. >> it was surveillance video widely shared on tmz yesterday of nfl player ray rice striking his then girlfriend jay palmer. ravens announcing rice had been cut from the team. nfl suspending him indefinitely. the handling of the entire situation has been widely criticized. big questions remain about what they knew and when. leigh steinberg, sports power agent negotiating deals for steve young, troy aikman, ben roethlisberger. he joins us now from california. good to see you, lee. >> good morning, sarah. >> obviously, there's a lot of criticism for the nfl right now. should goodell step down? >> i don't think there is any chance of that. the league is so powerful. pro football by 2-1 is the most popular sport in this country. to give you an example, jerry jones bought the dallas cowboys
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in 1989 for $140 million. it's now worth $3.2 billion. so this sport is rolling in finances from stadium, luxury boxes, television contracts, social media, fantasy sports. this is embarrassing for him because there is nothing on that tmz tape that was not already relayed to both the colts and to the commissioner. >> exactly. >> they said that ray rice explained in great detail and was transparent about the fact that he hit his then fiancee, knocked her out. that's all goodell needed to issue much more than a two-game suspension. as to the colts, yesterday morning they were ready to put ray rice back on active on friday. had that tape not emerged, that would have been the last we
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heard of it. >> that's my point here. isn't it a problem tmz, then the national outrage over the tmz video is shaping nfl policy on domestic abuse? >> exactly.exactly. here is domestic violence is a major problem in this country. the nfl is the most popular entertainment. it's uniquely situated to have the athletes be role models in the fight against domestic violence, not perpetrators. i had a heavyweight champ do a psa that says real men don't hit women. and these athletes can do the same thing. we have mother, sisters, wife, daughters, and so men taking a leading role serving as role models for other men to understand this is not to do is critically important. >> so can give us apinsight as
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to why there was this delay, why was the commissioner -- why did the commissioner not act sooner? and i wonder if it's because he has to lead the organization with him. he can't disconnect. some people will say whether she was spitting at him, whether there was provocation, the point they are making in those posts online is that they feel that it may be a one-sided reporting that we've had since then. not all of the nfl is youhe ext like them clearly. >> the victimization of the victim is something that the baltimore ravens were part of because they had her appear at a press conference and apologizing. and then they put her apologize up on to their website and the problem here is that the commissioner had a tin ear. there is no way that two games is appropriate. he had a chance to send a big
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message and it took not internal pressure but the embarrassment of tmz breaking this tape, that's not the way we should make policy in the nfl. we should be ahead of the curve like we are in breast cancer and a variety of other issues and try to make a real difference here. instead it's all been reactive. >> and that's a problem. all right. thanks for weighing in. good to see you. up next, back to the markets. are we getting more bull liish netflix? find out why he sees more than 25% up side for the stock. kid: hey dad, who was that man?
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dad: he's our broker. he helps looks after all our money. kid: do you pay him? dad: of course. kid: how much? dad: i don't know exactly. kid: what if you're not happy? does he have to pay you back? dad: nope. kid: why not? dad: it doesn't work that way. kid: why not? vo: are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management at charles schwab
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netflix up more than 30% so far this year. our next guest is getting even more bullish. let's bring in mark mahane. he raised his price target to $600 a share. so that's 24% up side. why? >> well, good morning.
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you will have major news out of next fligs ne netflix as they expand. so we did a serious analysis and we think the international story is the play on the stock. 15% penetrated amongst all the broadband households across latin america, so the stronger that people realize and then we continue to do surveys both in the u.s. and the uk, two largest markets. we see satisfaction levels continuing to rise. the story continues to build out. we like it and we position valuations still very reasonable. in it is as you point out in your note the highest short interest and the lowest buy rating ranking amongst all the large caps. so not everybody is united in this. i guess my central question would be when they expand abroad, can they keep doing as well because you may not have the pool of content netflix can get its hands on in germany in
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the same way it can in this country where there is so much scripted drama. >> good point. so this is a contraire yap bria call. this is i think cnbc yesterday called it one of the three most hated stocks on wall street. that means there is a lot of incremental buyers. but the real reason we like it, for on fundamental reasons. can they really prove in nonenglish language speaking countries, november u.s. centric focused countries, can they to well, we'll find out in germany and france. we think we've already gotten evidence in latin america, mexico, argentina, brazil. they have been in hose markets for three years and we've seen did decent penetration rates. >> mark made haney, hang you. coming up, gearing up for apple's big announcement.
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