[ sighs ] honey, haven't i asked you to please use the -- we don't have a reception entrance. [ male announcer ] ship a pak via fedex express saver® for as low as $7.50. welcome to "the closing bell" on a friday. >> stocks are lower today. the dow down about 100 poents right now but we have with us craig johnson from piper jaffrey and this week made a lot of news saying next year the s&p at 2350. it's sitting today at 1981. nearly 20% gain from here. now, you're saying, okay, why should i listen to craig johnson? because this is the guy who predicted back in 2012 two years

ago that the s&p to hit 2000 and nailed it within four days of his call. >> for those of you who think technical analysis is voodoo, perhaps listening to what he has to say. shortly. will twitch be the espn of video games? the leader of the platform is here exclusively. talking to emmett shear that they can make it a speck taylor sport. >> it's fascinating. >> you're being to lipolite. >> i'm sheer you. iphone, it is going on sale a week from today, don't expect to get it a week from today. if you're preordering, the wait is now up to a month. apple said they hit a record with preorders so is -- we'll talk about that and whether or not bigger is better. now suddenly, for years, getting smaller and smaller and smaller and going the other direction

and this is bigger iphone than in the past s. this a good thing necessarily? we'll talk about that. >> speaking of bigger -- >> twitch is a terrific service. >> i don't see watching gamers play video games. >> oh, well then. i'm intrigued by the platform. >> it's regenerating. buying -- talking to jon fortt about this earlier. a content stream you don't have to invest as much because it generates itself. that's all coming up. speaking of big and apple, the market cap, they're growing but the dow jones industrial average off by 103 points this hour. typically the last couple of hours on a friday and pointed out is more positive. s&p 500 off 17 points sitting on the 1980 mark and the nasdaq off 35. >> all right. let's talk about all of it in the closing bell exchange for this friday. tgif to our guests. we have tom essay and larry

mcdonald of new edge usa. welcome, everybody. lisann, we have a strong year lately. do you think to some degree that's starting to put a crimp on the equity market? >> i think there's concern of the earnings for the multinationals. that said, a strong dollar is actually good for both the economy and the equity markets and coming out of a band of stability and you get sharp movements in the dollar that can cause near term market concerns and might be in play given we're heading into earnings season soon. >> mark, there's goldman, for example, talking to some clients about the concern it sees for this higher rate regime, maybe some technical changes pointing to a lower valuation on the russell on the s&p in the coming weeks. are you worried about a near term breakdown here on the back of the strong rally to date we have seen?

>> mark? >> sorry. i think what we have seen throughout this week and we had five strong weeks and looking forward to two big events next week. federal reserve meeting and election in scotland going on so i don't think of it as much of a breakdown. we had a strong summer. we have had a strong five weeks. not a lot of u.s. economic data. retail sales came out today and not a lot to combat with when's going on. on the middle east, russia and scotland. this is a week where in the tug of war of usda that, and geopolitical, geopolitical won but next week is big events to determine the direction of the market maybe for the rest of the month. >> let's ask it slightly differently. what's happening on the rate space, 2.6% as bill said. significance here? remember david tepper on the 4th

i think 10 days ago or so said this is the end of the bull market for bonds. >> yeah. we have been calling for bonds to be moving and we have been early on that one along with everybody else. yeah. i'm surprised a bit at the move up of 2.6 happening throughout this year but at this point over the last couple of weeks it seems surprising to me so i think as we get close to fed meetings, more volatility and people making bets on what might come out and language change a little bit and probably accounts for it but we're a bit surprised. not that rates are moving up but chosen a couple of weeks to make that move. politically, again, particularly in the face of some political issues going on, we would have thought of anything in the short move for rates to move down not great. >> tom, you believe that the great bull market is over so have we seen the lows in terms of yields and where does it go from here do you think? >> i think, yes, we have seen the lows and i think people underappreciating what an influence europe is on for the bond market so this year this.

and seeing the bond buying fever break before your eyes. in europe as the ecb finally targets inflation and growth and breaking here in the u.s. as the economic data is now forcing the fed to become slightly more hawkish on the margin. the one thing that -- consensus that worries me is everybody seems to agree that the rise in yooelds is gradual and take time. i would not be surprised if we see 3% on the 10-year. maybe before the end of the year or very early in 2015. >> okay. larry, what about that? especially against the backdrop of a weaker china's putting pressure on the commodity spis and seeing declines across the board there. >> i think the 10-year is screaming by here. in 2012, in september, we were creating 150, 140,000 jobs a month. and we had gdp running about 1.8 to 1.9%.

those are all identically the same numbers of recent months and back then we entered qe3 so i think next week the slack in the labor force is going to force janet yellen to increase her dovish position. i think u.s. tens can go back to 2.3% over the next 6 months. >> wow. tom, what do you think of that? >> well, you know, it makes sense and we have to remember, too, that this is a very leveraged trade. right? so there's a -- it is very crowded long treasuries because it was so unexpected this year. there are a lot of offshoots from this, too. look at what's happening in the emerging markets. right? they're now starting to sell off. this rise in yields globally, not just happening in the united states but europe, as well. >> larry's saying the opposite and they're screaming by and that u.s. interest rates are going lower, tom, you're saying the opposite. >> you're saying 3%. he's saying 2.3% in the near term here.

>> i'm sorry. i misheard him. i'm sticking with my position. i don't think people appreciate how much it can get going and how much of a leveraged trade this is once it starts unrolling and corners of the global market leveraged to this. >> dliz ann, you see this as a secular bull market and what about the role that the yield on the 10-year could play if it continues to move higher, especially to tom's level of 3% within a year? >> sharp disruptive movements go against consensus can cause volatility in the market. that said, ultimately what defines an equity market to behave in a rising yield market is what sits behind the rise in the yield. if it's growth and inflation stays relatively contained that i think is a positive backdrop for the market. the opposite and inflation scare to cause much more trouble for the market. >> a question. a point that john has made.

as oil prices come down and has been oil production and the middle part of the country. shale production, some of the natural gas, as well. that part of the country helped broadly speaking with employment, income gains. if oil prices go lower, is that a risk to the u.s. recovery here? >> i think a risk to the industry that is have a high correlation to energy prices but as an economy that's 68% driven by consumption i think the net is an extreme positive. it keeps downward pressure, headline levels of inflation and probably filters into core. there are always winners and losers and continued decline is good for the economy. >> mark, before we go, sector you like now, i mean, do you go with one that's strongly lately and hopes it continues to be strong? >> tying in the liz ann's

comments of energy impacts, the dollar going up, consumer discretionary is an area we think benefits in that scenario for a u.s. consumer so that's been an overweight financials moved to an overweight with our managers and health care continued to be an overweight. laggard sectors are defensive. utilities with our view that the rates move up and consumer staples so more of a cyclical bent and less of a defensive bent and discretionary play with a long dollar view. >> would you have similar positioning here, tom? >> you know, yes, absolutely. i think that dollar has a lot more to run. again, especially against some of the commodity currencies. look at what's happening with aussie and cad, the looney. seeing the trade town ravel in a big way and will accelerate. >> all right. we'll talk about that later. we'll look at the strong dollar

and the impact it could have on the dollar. >> have a great weekend, everybody. we have 50 minutes. the s&p 500 off about 15 and the nasdaq 29. when we come back, a lot of buzz about this call this week. craig johnson saying two years ago that the s&p would hit 200. it happened within five days of his prediction. parachuting out 20,000 feet and hitting the mark there. now he says 2015 could see a break to 2350. >> we'll talk to him about that and later more talk from the banks about just when interest rates will rise. we'll tally up who's seeing what, try to figure out what it means for janet yellen to pull the trigger. forget the critics saying that the iphone 6 plus is too big. apparently it's actually too popular. you can't get one unless you're willing to wait a month. we'll have that story still to come on the closing bell. when change is in the air you see things in a whole new way.

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selling in the markets today but we have coming back here the dow and came on and closing bell top of the hour down 100. now down 77 and come back. s&p down 13 points at 1984. remember that number because we'll talk about the s&p in a moment and the nasdaq down 26 at this hour. >> first, though, dominic chu with the big movers this final hour of the trading week. >> i'll remember 1984 just for you guys. all right? starting with exxonmobil. the biggest lag ward in the dow on u.s. led sanctions against russia. the stock's down nearly 4% in just the last two weeks as oil prices continue to fall. also watching shares of yahoo! hitting the highest level in more than 8 1/2 years. this, of course, on news that alibaba of which it owns a 22.5% stake to close the order books

early for the ipo because of strong investor demand. sprint shares are soaring after an upgrade of an outperform from a market perform rate and saying that new management and network changes make the company a long-term investment opportunity. on the other side here, we have t-mobile, as well, moving higher as the ceo told investors in new york that the company added 552,000 post-paid discuss merles in august. the most in its history. a lot of wireless talk going on in today's trade. back over to you. >> there certainly is. thank you. well, two years ago when the s&p was at around 1400, our next guest predicted it would hit 2000 by august 21st, 2014. >> he was wrong. >> it happened august 26th. we need to listen up when he makes his next prediction. >> all right. let's talk about that. craig johnson of piper jaffrey saying the s&p will hit 2350 by the end of next year.

and while we are talking to craig, we all know you can multitask out there. so while we're talking, did to our website cnbc.com/vote and tell us what you think if you think the s&p is capable of hitting 2350 by the end of year next year. welcome back. getting attention with that call this week. >> thank you. >> you're a chartist. you look at the charts. not worried about fundamentals or interest rates and it tells you we're decembstined to go hi. >> right. i believe in inner market analysis. bonds, commodities, currency. there's all meaning and tell the story of the tape very, very efficiently as we're thinking about where ultimately the market can go and seeing telltale signs. talked about bonds, the dollar. there's a lot of bullish things starting to happen and in the stocks. we can't ignore those signs. >> it's just amazing you say

starting to happen and already in the fifth-plus year of this bull market run which is historic. >> it is historic but when you go back and look at history, you will see that from 1952 to 1966, you make six times your money. we saw stocks, we saw interest rates, big inflection points occurred. broke topside to the highs of previously in the '30s and the '40s and then again started to make higher highs and higher lows and the same pattern happened again in 1982 breaking topside of the highs in the '70s. history may not repeat itself but it's rhyming and interest rates and the dollar are key to that. >> you're saying that a rise in interest rates would be bullish for this stock market when, in fact, there are plenty of people believe it's lower rates bullish for this stock market. if the yield on the 10-year is going higher here, how's that bullish when the lower yield is bullish? >> a couple of things from our

perspective. looking back at 2000, we look at how many stocks in the market today, versus how many are near now and versus 2000, there's 25% fewer investable stocks and when money comes out of fixed income and equities and see losses on the fixed income side, that's more money coming into the equity market to drive things higher. the second observation that i would make is when we see that secular shift, that's a big, long-term underpinning driver for the market and also i would lastly just simply say if we see quantitative easing end and we are, everybody's saying rate wills go up. i don't think that's the case at all. look at all of the other g-7 countries around the world. look at the boond. >> going higher or not, your equity call can be correct. >> it certainly can be correct but rates may still remain in a position where they're not going to go up and snuff out the market because we have got a bit

of an arbitrage of u.s. and european debt. >> business this call your best call professionally? >> there's two people that remind me try to keep me humble. i missed the call. my father and the trading desk, also. that was fun. but it was a good call. we have made other calls in the past. we were looking for 1850 end of last year. we missed that by a point and change. and as we look at this call here, we are reaching the measured objective of the base, the 13-year base and breaking out of. 2350. >> i would point out our viewers are voting right now and at this moment 55% or thereabouts agree with you we could hit 2350 by the end of the next year. what about sentiment? i mean, the volatile index is low for sometime and maybe suggesting complacency. do we expect the market to go higher, whether it's going to or

not? >> right. i look at the vix. interesting gauge of sentiment but going back and look at it over a long period of time, say, pre-2000, volatility dries up. when you enter secular bull markets. this is natural, natural price action. sentiment of my perspective, people don't like this market. they're not engaged. i have to remind them we're at all-time new highs. you want to be buying stocks making 52-week new highs. >> it is an unlovable market. >> it's an important point you make. the fact it's a high isn't necessarily a sign of worry so much as an encouraging one. to take one gauge to a desert island with you coming to calling the stock market, what would it be? >> you know, i would just simply take price. price action dictates it all for us. when we make things really complicated and my 10-year-old son gets it, up is good, down is bad, smily faces are good,

frowny faces are bad, we understand it. >> you can make money shorting a stock, you know. >> you can. that's tougher to do in a secular bull market and the hedge fund community is finding that a challenge at this point in time. >> learning the hard way. >> we close the polls, 56% officially of the viewers who voted say 2350 by next year on the s&p. they agree with craig johnson. good to see you. >> thank you. >> thank you so much. heading toward the close. 40 minutes or so left of the trading session coming off the low set maybe 20 minutes ago. the dow now down 70 points at this hour. coming up next, you may have to wait a little bit longer for the iphone 6 plus than you'd like. wait until you hear how long the delay is and causing it. >> also ahead, twitch interactive ceo speaking with us exclusively about the deal, amazon buying twitch for nearly $1 billion cold cash. find out why the e tailing giant was so hot for this video game streaming company.

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well, iphone of sales kicked off today. a bid already. there are signals that the iphone 6 plus may face delivery delays. >> our josh lipton is on the case in the heart of silicon valley with the very latest. josh, is this all about demand or about supply constraints?

>> reporter: kelly, remember apple executives, they were very confident about their new products and it does look like consumers are sharing in that enthusiasm. a representative saying response to iphone 6 and iphone 6 plus has been incredible with a record number of pre-orders overnight. in fact, response has been strong enough that we're now seeing shipment delays. verizon now saying versions of the iphone 6 will ship on october 21st. at&t saying 21 to 35 days. the iphone 6 plus not available in any make or model for four to six weeks. carri carriers, of course, battling hard for your business here. verizon and at&t both offering trade-in programs for customers. t-mobile saying they'll beat any trade in offer and throw in another $50 for your troubles. sprint is offering what it's calling the iphone for life plan for $70 a month, lease it and

then upgrade to a new version every two years. of course, their real fireworks begin next week september 19th when they hit the shelves. analysts at rbc saying they think apple will sell 10 million iphones that first weekend. back to you. >> by the end of the year, this delay will have been forgotten. whose fault? did they underestimate the demand for this? >> reporter: you know, it's hard to say, bill. we woke up to the reports that it wasn't just apple but carriers suffering the hiccups and saw on twitter people were frustrated. and voicing their frustrations and then by sun rise here, we were starting to see these delays reported from all the carriers. both iphone 6, certain versions of iphone 6 and 6 plus, guys. >> josh, how much of this is because it's now -- i'm just thinking of china where they're able to use these latest models because of network upgrades.

how much of this is because it's now available to so many more consumers? >> reporter: you know, what's interesting, actually, is that in some sense, kelly, you read through the analyst numbers this morning and you're seeing some of the delays and frustrations and remember, actually, china isn't a factor yet. china is not involved in the first round of the launch and analysts think you see a lot of demand for the iphone 6 plus and another -- >> when does it come to china, josh? before the end of the year? >> reporter: i think they were pegging by the end of the year and i think that was -- the reason seeing the frustrations an some of the head leans we are seeing today is too little supply. too much demand? that's really the question. certainly apple trying to produce as many of the phones as they can as efficiently and effectively as they would. >> if you're having to wait for an iphone, you don't have to wait for a blackberry. >> a blackberry? huh? yeah. interesting. >> thank you, josh. >> 32 minutes to did here.

>> see you later. >> hanging on to it. you have two of them. >> two of them. double fisted with the blackberry. hanging on to it. when they make an iphone with a physical keyboard then we'll talk maybe. 30 minutes left in the trading session here. the dow down 74 right now. twitch interactive ceo speaking with us exclusively about the video game streamer acquired by amazon. that price tag nearly a billion dollars. find out what's next for twitch. will it be the espn of video games as they're saying? we'll be right back. who do you trust? whose analysis is accurate? how do you make sense of it all? a simple, unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts... is that too much to ask? nope. equity summary score, powered by starmine, will help you execute your ideas with speed and conviction. and it's only on fidelity.com. open an account and find more of the expertise you need

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visitors, the platform for gamers caught wall street's eye when tech giant amazon announced the deal to buy twitch for $970 million. >> with us is emmett shear. good to see you. >> welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> what's it been like thus far as an amazon company? >> honestly, basically like being an independent company. we're working out the integrations and finding ways to work together. >> do you hope it stays that way? how much autonomy are you going to have and how much are you expecting amazon opening further ideas towards working together? >> i'm expecting it to remain very similar. i think that one of the reasons i was attracted to the deal with amazon in the first place was amazon really promised an unprecedented degree of autonomy and ability to pursue our current ongoing strategy and really with more resources to do it faster. i get to remain ceo of twitch

interactive. we're a sub, obviously, but that's a huge deal. >> we should say, i mean, i'll be frank. i didn't know about twitch until amazon bought you. my kids know all about you. my son is a gamer at 25 and played on twitch and watched. people can watch other people play online video games on twitch like watching a game on television. but you're watching a video game here. what are you able to do with $970 million you couldn't do before? what's on the wish list for twitch? >> i think that we have a couple of huge opportunities in front of us. and one of them is just expanding on to new platforms. we have announced the integrations last year and were huge and really valuable for us and i think help grow that region and invest a lot in helping grow the console communities on twitch and then secondly the opportunity in mobile is just massive. we have seen a huge growth in

clash of clans recently which is a mobile game of huge popularity and we have started seeing people stream mobile games to our platform and that's extremely exciting to us, as well. >> wow. we should mention initial hearing about twitch first time when it was just a simple graph of where most of the internet traffic spent in the day and twitch was one of the top sites and i think you average out to just under two hours for people during the day. it is a huge chunk of time and stud yos can't get people to sit in the seats two hours once a week. i'm curious if you talk to us about montization and how much is that a factor to either increase ad revenue or subscriptions here in the months ahead. >> so for us, we focus on as you said both revenue sources. it's a blended model much like cable tv with a subscription component and much is available for free and there's also an

advertising component and that is two-legged model with revenue from both of those and both hugely important and can't say it's a one revenue stream and how can we help our broadcasters sell physical goods, as well? we have been running a campaign to help the broadcasters sell t-shirts with t-spring as a partner and that's huge for us. >> i get who's going to play a game. who watches a video game? i mean, who -- are these people that are just on down time and they just want to watch somebody else and pick up tricks or whatever? i mean, who's the typical viewer on twitch? >> a typical twitch viewer is just the typical gamer. when we see pick-up in a gaming community, we see 80%, 90% of the active players of that game start watching on twitch. and so, for us it really is if you play video games, we think twitch is the place for you to come join us and our community.

>> there's interaction that goes on anyway beyond just watching the game. i mean, there's some texting and social networking as well, right? >> that's right. a huge part of what makes twitch entertaining is a giant event to attract millions and millions of viewers and hundreds or thousands of concurrent viewers and many of those channels and people come to chat with the broadcaster, talk with each other, to be part of the twitch community and be -- have part of an interactive experience. >> and when people talk about you as the espn of video games, virtual games, how does that jive with what your own vision is for the future of this company in. >> i think that's not too far from the truth. we really want to bring e-sports to the world and it's an incredible part of what we do and not all of what we do. i think of us as a cable network for video games than espn. and the stuff that -- espn video games does is a part of any cable network but i want to have

the home shopping network of video games an i want to have the b.e.t. of video games and you name the channel, mtv of video games, i want that, too. >> i doubt jeff bezos is watching. you can talk freely. do you think he expects twitch just to be an atm for amazon? there's got to be an imprint, some change in the nature of twitch to this point to have the amazon feel to it. what's the business strategy going to be do you think? >> i mean, so far, and i can only go with what they've told me and seen so far, amazon is sincere in the desire to do right by our customers and execute faster on the direction we're already going and i don't think they would have bought us and promised autonomy if they didn't already like that direction. i think for real they want, you know, even just between us, they really want to help us accelerate the strategy and the

direction we're heading in. >> fascinating. >> good stuff. again, i guess i'll be watching. >> you'll be watching? >> check us out. twitch.tv. >> emmett shear from san francisco. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> how long before fantasy leagues on video games characters. >> watching the games like sporting event. fascinating. 21 minutes left in the trading session. dow down 62. up next, the u.s. dollar. it's getting much stronger lately. and that's a good thing, right? not so fast. here's why some say it could actually halt the u.s. economic recovery in the tracks. we'll have a special report on this as a potential threat. plus, a 20-cent tip. you heard about this? philadelphia eatery is costing the star more than he bargained for. the philadelphia eagle runni runningback cheaped out because of what he said was poor statement and making a statement but the restaurant's owner has a

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moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.

welcome back. there it is. dollar index heading for ninth consecutive week of gains. >> but could the strong dollar actually hurt our economic recovery? sarah issen, what do you say? >> that's the right question to be asking. people worry about exports in particular and strong dollar does hurt american products sold abroad. they become less competitive. to look at the dollar, the green, the spike-up, that was during the recession and everyone poured into the dollar. you saw what happened to the exports. it is a negative correlation. that is chart of deutsch bank and shows that relationship. economists also say that the flip side is you see imports rise because a stronger dollar helps the purchasing power of what we import from overseas and a relationship there courtesy of

ubs. that relationship could help offset some of the declines of growth to see from the exports and bottom line on the economy, a great report on this saying limited. especially if you add up imports and exports in the united states. one fourth of the our nation's gdp and corporate impact to talk about. watch out for the milt nationals. they do a lot of business overseas. that hurts. david rosenberg put out a note saying the three sectors to be hurt the worst, energy, health care and materials. but there are winners. the sectors that tend to do well are domestic focus. financials and it appears we very much are in a period of dollar strength. >> you wonder if that's one vuler in to believe the stronger dollar here.

do people need to rethink their view? >> that's what rosenberg will say. they get such a big portion these big pfizers, big health care companies overseas and that's really what this is all about. cutting into the competitiveness factor. sell overseas and the local currencies, worth less coming back home. >> currency markets, trends tend to last a long time. you don't have the short-term trends. once the dollar moves, it goes in that direction. you had a piece on cnbc today about -- >> the trade of the decade. >> it could be. >> the dollar of the yen and specific one looking at because if you look policies are diverging of central banks with the federal reserve in focus next week. the u.s. economy is outperforming and higher rates and in japan, the expectations are going the other way. decline in gdp. they have to do something about the weakness in the economy.

missing inflation. what they have to do, the big tool that's working is weakening the yen. >> two quick things to mention. one is saying we are in inning two of what could be a ten-inning move in the dollar and alan green spay saying a stronger dollar is a tightening of monetary policy and keep that in mind next woke. >> absolutely correct. you see it on the export picture and that's why perhaps they have breathing room and ecb and boj are going in the other direction. >> sarah, thank you. >> thanks. >> a lot to watch for. >> thanks. 14 minutes to go into the close. a sign from the dollar and keeping an eye on major indexes with the dow off 75. >> we are not finished the fed. what the world's top fed watchers saying about interest rate increases next week. some say it's why the stocks are in the red today, coming up. ale. aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion...

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welcome back. about ten minutes left in the trading session. dow down 67. art cashin pointing out that the bias is pretty quiet week to the upside. it's probably paired off as we speak right now so not a lot of pressure to the upside toward

the close with the s&p down 12 points and nasdaq down 236. >> get the thoughts of tcw and independent consultant. >> dd and ll. >> there you go. >> perfect it when it works out like that. only you would point that out by the way. >> "d" is latin numeral for 500. "l" is for 50. he is 50 times 50. i'm 25,000. >> what are you saying? >> he is 2,500. >> well, i'm saying what we were discussing just a second ago, kelly and bill. the market in september has just been moving sideways. catching, pausing. earnings are a big driver. i'm amazed how many people raising the earnings estimate and the strength in forecast. 11% for this year. 14% or so for next year. the cylinders not hitting, china is sort of loafing along. nothing special. japan needs to overcome that

bad -- the sales tax and that 7.1% decline. and europe is going slowly. but you saw those consumer confidence numbers. the retail sales numbers. manufacturing is hitting on all eight cylinders in the united states. >> right. >> sounds like a v8? >> it is. >> the bond market right now is in the. >> what does that do to yields. >> seeing in it europe. driving it. we are just adjusting to what the ecb has done. rates got i think well overdone there on the downside and continue to see rate pressure and the upside and the type of things that david was speaking about, type of economic growth in the u.s. definitely moving towards 3.5% in the third quarter and continue to put pressure on rates higher. >> is this a good witch or a bad witch? what does it mean for people with exposure to the stock market here? >> generally long term, any time there's pressure on rates going up the economy is moving along.

it is not bad until the fed takes action. i think that we're worried about today is the debate over considering considerable and it's just a question of is the fed going do remove that language? is it going to spook the market into thinking rates move in the short term much higher than the market priced in right now? >> for the -- how many months now the fed has put that language in their communique to keep rates at a record low for a considerable period of time and the feeling is that's coming out this week when they announce their latest move. >> i think probably 50-50. remember janet yellen really got a brooklyn welcome first starting talking about what considerably means and may be hesitant to remove that language at this meeting but it's definitely coming and if they do it it's not likely to put in a caveat to soften it because that defeats the purpose and you have a new piece of language to worry about down the road. >> you will see rates stay low

and moderate until they sell bonds from the 4.2 trillion, $4.3 trillion holdings. >> they're talking about hanging on to all that. >> i'm be you and him. rates can go up a little bit abe the market can still go up some more. >> we'll take a quick break here and bring you both back and see how we do toward the close with the countdown here. after the bell, it is alibaba, underwriters closing the books ahead of schedule and chances are you will not get the ipo price. should you still buy it friday trading? >> what will you get first, iphone 6 or alibaba shares? >> you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. i make a lot of purchases for my business.

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♪ so the magic shell went back to being a...shell. get live squawks right in your trading platform with thinkorswim from td ameritrade. heading toward the bell, four minutes left in the trading session. three markets and how they did this week. the dow for the equity markets. for the week, down almost 1%. first down week we have had for the dow in about six weeks. you can sees sawtooth move. the 10-year the other direction. no surprise. a gain in terms of yield itself 6% going out at the high for the week of 2.6% and started at 2.42%. and a rise. pretty big number for this.

oils the other feature as it's been continuing the move lower. it's been a volatile week here and still around $92. wasn't too long ago at 103 on wti crude and for the week down 1.3%. so lard,ird, how much higher ca they go? and how much lower in. >> considerably higher. 3%, 3.5%. i think the selloff probably take a pause over the next couple of weeks. probably consolidate in here. i think that the real worry for bond investors isn't so much where treasury yields go. they will be contained over the long term. it is about credit, credit markets and what liquidity will look like hitting a rough patch in high yield. >> bill, oil prices can slip off further from here. this is actually a tonic to the consumer. you know this. it is like a tax decrease. oil prices have been way up, way elevated because offee

owepolitical worries and a good thing to see them slipping off with supply. libya went way down. came back. oil prices coming down. it's a good thing and kept a lid on the energy stocks as discussed before. >> right. >> want to express our thoughts, solidarity with those who lost their lives yesterday in 2011 -- 2001 at the world trade center. >> on our minds as it always is. the dollar, common denominator for the 10--year-oyields and pr oil. >> against the yen and the euro, going higher. right? we're the winners in the beauty pageant on a wig farm right now. >> all of the gold buying friends and gold shares buying friends it is hurtful to them because that strength in the dollar. gold was up almost 10%. now up 3%, bill. it's given back 7% in the last

couple of weeks with the strength in the dollar and it could go higher to maybe 120 and many people talking about against the euro. >> seeing the odd correlations as the yen moved higher, putting pressure on the long end of the u.s. treasury curve. a technical thing going on with the power rangers trade. they have the dual currency notes in japan. and every time the yen hits a new low level we are seeing basically people coming into the swap market, hedging those and putting pressure on the rates in the u.s. we'll see more of this. >> it is a rather awkward period right now as various central banks in desperate directions here. you know? as they ease and we're going higher here. presumabl presumably. >> presumably higher. if the economy stays the way i think david and i think it will stay, it's going higher. >> good reason to buy japanese and european equities because of the weaker currency of both of them to help the business.

>> great contrarians speaking there. thank you both. have a great weekend. appreciate your thoughts. going without minus signs for the major averages. the dow down week in about six weeks. that's first hour of "the closing bell." thank you for joining us. hour number two with kelly evans and company v. a good weekend, everybody. thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. begin with where we're finishing the day with the dow giving up 61 on the close again and down triple digits just about an hour ago and we have the losses. nasdaq giving up 24 points. s&p 500 with a decline of about 11 sitting at 1985. we did test the 1980 mark. art cashin saying watch it. we held it for this friday and raises questions in tandem of interest rates of next week and straight to it with the panel. joining me is zachary, erin, and

robert and tim seymour and michelle caruso cabrera. this is a better and better house in a worse and worse neighborhood as they say. >> yeah. remember, september can happen. august 30th we would be worried about the worst month of the year for markets. looking at the u.s. and think with the dollar which is giving a lot of royal in the markets and what you are talking about. if you look at the central bank differentials or the diver intelligence in policy, it is making a weaker yen and a weaker euro which is what both those central banks want much easier to do and weighing on volatility. interest rates going higher. when's good here is not great for global markets in the short run. long run, very good and i think while the dollar can continue to rally, i think all of this sets up far week where we're overdone

on the dollar, rates. you might get relief next week. >> yeah. we got to talk about interest rates here. zach, if you want do speak to this. david tepper says this is it. the bull market in bonds is over. that was earlier this pont. of course, that line has been proven wrong time and again since the financial crisis but you have to say there's something happening on fixed income right now. >> yeah. but it's within this band. right? so if you go from this low of like 2.2 or a few years ago below 2 and creep up to 3 and sitting around saying oh my god, the end of the market is interest yields at 3%, so i think we need to give perspective that the end of a bull market is not the same statement as the beginning of this massive bear market. it is certainly been true premature here and at some point there's not a lot lower global rates could go and i don't think

they're going higher. 3% might happen. just because there's such a surface of liquidity. there's sources of global liquidity. >> you guys all well-known the biggest trade for years has been this reach for yields so, you know, is this going to upset the apple cart moving towards, for example, 3% on the 10-year or not? what's it do to people in utilities, just looking at some of the blue chip stocks and carry a pretty -- i mean, do you think that there's a big shift under way potentially? >> i don't think there's a big shift. i think we see what we see when rates go higher and inflation. typically is an 8% correction. not more than ten usually. and then flushes out and go back to normal valuations but because globally we are seeing such a surge for yield and in japan finally went to for the first time ever negative rates, people are still going to be searching for those proxies for yield

wherever. >> it's interesting. i spent time this week at a luxury real estate conference and the head of douglas almond said he would watch cnn at night and the trouble in the world and know that that money unfortunately is coming to him because money around the world among people who have it is going to the highest ground. so this stock market, not that it's attracting capital. capital's being pushed into it because it has nowhere else to go and true of real e skate, cars and stocks and will continue to be as we have easing in europe. >> especially, by the way, michelle, the u.s. at war right now? it's hard to follow when's happening on that front. even just focusing, for example, right now on the islamic state. >> right. members of the administration don't want to call it a war but nearly 1,000 troops over there, it starts to get close to feeling like we're at some kind of war. definitely with isis.

one of the geopolitical events we have been following for months now but ultimately doesn't necessarily seem to move the markets very much. we did get news today that once again the europeans and the united states are ratcheting up sanctions on russia coming to financial services and also oil companies and defense companies. this seemed to have some impact, for example, today, on exxonmobil. a lot of big projects with russia and that stock in particular hit. but geopolitical events, biggest one right now is scotland next week and uncertainty of the banking system in england. >> although that's an interesting point. we pay attention to legitimate major issues,ee o egeo politica. that could be war. those have very little potential absent than becoming global cascades. changing how many iphones apple sells or how much proctor and gamble sells in america. the scottish independent vote,

though, proximate to the european union and currency has a greater potential of roiling markets for being a financial event than isis. >> the data shows that vote is too close to call. the undecided votes are still such a large percentage we don't know which way it goes. it happens on thursday. i tell you, if it goes yes, the's going to be a ripple impact, for sure. unclear what it's going to be and so much uncertainty. >> robert said, as well. many people, michelle, as everybody here knows have been locking at london, new york real estate and assets as basically, you know, the new swiss bank account as "new york" magazine called it. >> flight capital. >> there you go. so the extent to which the pound is looking dicey, does that again increase the amount of people pushing capital into the u.s.? >> sure. >> you know what? i mean, if the pound is weaker, i think russians and chinese buy

more in london because it's more -- >> that's true. >> it's interesting, i heard brokers saying while the russians are not u.s. and no bank will touch them and no seller will, they're back in a big way in the past five days in london. russians buying a lot. that tells you that, you know, there's a lot of money still to come out of these places. we thought it was mostly out and there's really a rush of money right now going from russia to london and we're going to see that here, i think, as well. >> tim seymour, you know what's happening with the ruble and by the way ukraine as well struggling with the devaluation of its currency. >> looking at currency markets currently, the volatility this week is a canary for the volatility that could be out there with the referendum on thursday, that to me is a very binary event and i think you have a lot of risk so i think the pound could go significantly lower if there's a question vote. i think i have some scottish in

me. i think it would be a massive mistake by the scots but i do think it's something that markets are preparing for. i think that, though, there's a risk actually to the euro rallying next week because i think the backdrop is dropped and in the short run and looking at russia and ukraine, yeah, continues to be a geopolitical risk for markets not dominating the markets as much as fed policy and the dollar and interest rates. >> before we go into saying that the only reason of putting assets in the u.s., i want to remind everybody of the retail sales today and so there is still some fundamental strength in the u.s. for those u.s. assets. >> so much because of lower gas prices. do we assume that's going to continue for as a structural change? because if we think they're doing well, we have the assume that gas prices stay low, too. >> that's what i was going to cite a line from rbs talking about when's happening with the u.s. consumer because we have seen upward revisions on the

back of data and saying and this is travel but we think the outlook for the consumer quote better now than it's been in the recovery and expansion. real wages and salaries 3% on a year on year basis. the savings rate up to 5.7%. people are taking on debt a little bit again as well and see as -- >> banks are lending like they haven't in a long time, too. great environment. >> it is definitely understandable to focus on the potential squeaky wheels and things to create volatility and roil the markets. this continues to be against a backdrop of generally rising markets. this week may not have been a great week and extraordinarily low and stable global financial system in spite of these things. i know throwing shoes at the screens saying, oh my god, complacency is breaking out. there are times when things are stable and rising. >> you wrote the book on these leading indicators. >> thank you for that plug.

>> signs of complacency here. >> some things sometimes go okay. that's not a sign of naivety. it's a sign of going in cycles. we have been on a lot of negative cycles for a lodge time. >> tim, gold, an asset twafl and owned by the retail public or at least it was and more and more people talking about a real breakdown here. >> we broke major trend lines earlier in the week. i think gold is significantly lower. fair value for gold where the fed stepped out of the picture or begun at least to have a major pullback and therefore is around $1,100 an ounce and the backdrop of benign by the day. we have seen flare-ups. 19% of the world at war. i don't know why you want to own gold when you're getting growth from other risk assets. >> well put.

thanks, everybody. catch tim at 5:00 p.m. explaining a dash for trash giving the favorite stocks poised for a comeback. don't miss it. straight ahead here, when will the fed raise interest rates? new guidance on what the thinking is inside their shops. we'll have ethan harris exclusively just ahead and we're a week away from alibaba's wall street debut. it could be the biggest ipo yet. should average investors say open sesame, though, and buy the stock trading next friday morning in that's later. it's the barbarian queen. wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait...whoa, does she have special powers when she has the shroud? no. guys? it's the woven one the woven one. oh, oh that gives her invincibility. guys? no, no, no... the scarlet king is lord victor's son!! no don't. i told you! you guys are gonna be so surprised when you watch the finale!!! you're so lucky your car has wi-fi. yeah...i am. equinox from chevrolet... the first and only car company to bring built-in 4g lte wi-fi

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welcome back. economists putting out their data this week. and merrill lynch calling for the first rate hike in june of next year. joining us is ethan harris and joining us with our own steve liesman. welcome to you both. ethan, first to you, what prompted this change to june? >> it's the economy. i mean, the economy's looking very good right now. it looks like second quarter gdp

growth will be revised up to 4.8% and that's a big, you know, bounceback from the winter. and third quarter looks like 3.8% growth so i think that the fed is starting to see the kind of numbers they want. give them a couple more quarters like this and they start to think seriously about hiking interest rates. >> steve, ethan isn't the only one or we should say bank of america not the only ones to bring forward their expectations of a rate hike here. >> i think that's right. you know the seven dirty words that a reporter can't say on financial television are? i'm going to say them now. seven dirty words you can't say on financial television. the federal reserve has hiked interest rates. i think we are enching closer and everybody's got itchy fingers to say it will happen soon and what we might get next week is an incremental move. the question is does the fed remove that phrase that says it's going to be a considerable time from the end of qe until

hiking interest rates? the odds are about even judging from what i'm reading and if it doesn't go in september, probably gone in august. that's a prereck zit and it's to swro deuce volatility. feels like maybe everybody's on one side of the fed trade here. fed maybe wants more ballist on the other side of the ship. >> zachary, so people are aware, as well, jp morgan saying it's june. capital economics has been saying march. ubs saying june. there's somewhat of a consensus forming here. >> there is a question for both steve and ethan. yes, there's a thing called the economy with a bunch of numbers getting better but a heated debate or at least i guess heated in economist speak with memos about whether the labor force and particularly labor force participation is far, far from anything heating and

extremely accommodative policy continues to be necessary which is totally different of whether or not gdp is going well -- >> right. >> and inflation is low. >> ethan? >> where do you fall on that part of it? >> i would say that we need to be careful about this. we are not going to go back to the old levels of labor force participation. they're gone permanently and probably room to entice some of those marginal workers back into the labor force and when the fed looks at the amount of slack out they include the workers as hidden unemployed and why i don't think they go until june next year. even though the official unemployment number's down to 6.1%, the true unemployment rate is higher and the fed wants more progress. >> zach, you're an old economics reporter. you have been doing this far long time and you know the rule. the rule is don't say someone won't do something until you tell me the price they won't do it at.

right? so if wages come up to a level that attracts people back to the workforce, there could be quite a bit of slack out there. my view is there's room for error here and we're approaching a point where maybe the error of the fed to make is just a little bit tighter and a very, very difficult move to make here. >> steve, this feeds into your point. they said they're going to -- the journal's reporting to form a stability counsel and is that a signal? >> stan's the man on that. the governor of bank of israel called in the israeli banks and said dump this stuff and this stuff was subprime stuff and he has experience as a governor, as an international official coming to these financial stability issues. and there's concern about that, kelly. and what i hear is a lot of folks say even eric rosenkranz

convince the market we're data dependent and everybody dove and hawk will be concerned about the issues which you're facing. >> steve, the way the fed's going to finesse this date dependent thing is not to drop the considerable time statement but to change it and attach it to the economy. they're going to say we will not hike interest rates until there's considerable improvement in the economy and that's the way to get rid of the time stamp which they all don't like but not alarm the markets. >> that's pretty good but the question is how the market takes that. what you have done is you have removed this six-month buffer period kind of in people's minds after the yellen gaffe and still right and people had it in the brain that it was a six-month buffer there. so i think they may try that. that's a good -- or add other language to tell people it's more data dependent. >> before we go, can you give us a sense? people understand now the momentum even given some of the

slack out there, momentum for this happening. what is the one thing to happen right now to make you say forget about it? what would it take at this point to really upset all of this? >> yeah. i mean, it would be any sign that the cyclical parts of the economy, the housing market are fading again. one of the things that scared the fed last year was how much the housing market seemed to respond to higher interest rates so if we start to move towards the exit here. rates go up in anticipation and the sectors fade, that will probably postpone the fed for quite a while. >> hey, kelly, just a little bit of math on ethan's math, if predicting 48 and 38, those are the best two quarters since at least the recession and maybe of this century. i'm not sure about this. >> well, but, you know, such a weird year. >> it would be. >> but analyzed growth rate is 1.3.

>> it's like 4 1/2, 3 1/2, minus 2.1, 4.4 and 3.5. when's the outlier a real anomaly and going back to "x" that quarter out, it's four strong quarters of growth. >> we'll leave it there. ethan harris and steve liesman on high fed watch and seven days away from the alibaba ipo and most people won't be able to access the ipo price. should average investors pounce once trading begins even if shares pop or will it be too expensive too fast? also he sean mccoy blasted for leaving a 20-cent tip on a $61 lunch bill. he said it was because of bad service and the owner is telling a very different story and will join us in a bit to tell us his side of the story and might be surprised by what he has to say. h we wish above all...is health.

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welcome back. one week away from what wall street says the largest ipo ever. kayla is following the action on alibaba. >> by any estimation it will be the biggest ipo ever and for 15 years investors watched china's alibaba grow from small upstart and founder's apartment to an e-commerce giant that does more business than amazon and ebay combined. we are a week away from the

much-anticipated ipo but investors are due early next week and already surpassed the shares sold and told three dozen money managers requested a million of shares apiece and double what they were looking to sell. now, the company last friday said it would price the shares up to 66 bucks a piece and demand likely to drive it up beyond that. according to people familiar with the deal. investors at home though likely have to sit it out. roughly $1.5 billion in the stock is earmarked for individuals of friends and family of the founders. but when a large valium of large stock is issued, there's volatile and specifically in the tech sector and regardless of performance, alibaba already looks set to break all of those records. back to you. >> wow. thank you very much for now. the countdown is on and most of

us won't get on the ipo price. should investors buy it in the open market next friday? welcome. >> thank you. >> let's say it's 70s, 80s on this initial surge given all the demand in the orders kayla was talking about. at what price do you think it's unattractive for retail investors? >> we have firms not participating saying it's worth $80 to $100 over 12 months and even the high 70s obviously may not become fully priced by that standard. however, the one thing for investors to consider is other ways to own alibaba ahead of the ipo. obviously people talked a great deal about yahoo! as a means to trade alibaba but not talked about softbng. >> they're selling out, correct? >> yahoo! selling an 8% interest and softbank is going to hold on

to the entire 34% interest and from that standpoint, the run-up in terms of possibility of seeing a pricing on the offering on top of the $66 top of the price range now you would basically have the benefit of that through yahoo! or softbank. >> that's an interesting way to play it, robert. >> for people who this is their retirement money, i mean, these ipos always so carefully orchestrated to give you some kind of surprising pop, some oversubscribe on investors. we have more dethan we can handle and designed to pop on the first day. >> get the headlines. >> for the every day retail investors whose retirement depends on this, in a year or two, where will the stock be? >> alibaba's case, we know that the -- pricing on the offering right now is about a 20% discount to the chinese peers and certainly priced as a substantial discount to amazon. amazon is no way a value stock. however, alibaba's basically

priced to sell and to sell well. at the same time, looking on a go forward basis, alibaba pretty much going to have the china market pretty much to their own. anybody trying to come in to china from outside in terms of e mers has been chased off by the government. and one might argue alibaba succeeded in china because they have good government relations in that regard. >> certainly true. this may be a hot ipo which it is and as you know it is an established company with more than a decade of operating with a billion-plus in income. far more than in revenue. different than the profile of a tech ipo u.s. investors come to expect and certainly biggest since facebook and facebook while it, too, was 7, 8 years old, the earnings relative to alibaba fractional. >> two thing that is are magic right now. growth and size. i mean, putting those two things together is really rare. >> but the question about

alibaba really is one of governance and from this standpoint you would be better off owning an interest in alibaba through a name with a large stake. >> like softbank. >> a 34% interest as an outside investor, given the ownership structure, you won't have much of a say and align yourself with a company that's already got a big seat at the table. >> softbank is priced in. how much more upside there? >> it's below the 52-week high and breaking out to new highs. from that standpoint and softbank, the benefit you have is a manager and basically knows how to be a billionaire. no reinvestment risk and as there is with melissa mayer and with ownership interest in companies of sprint has a big portfolio to work with. >> i agree with a position of softbank. for retail investor, any ipo, on average, 80% of them are lower than the issue price within a year so you won't want to wait out a year and an inherit risk

of transparency with china, some of the regulations around it and uncertainty that i would be hesitant to advise any retail investor to own in a firstier. >> i would agree with an ipo in the sense of they're flipped, a lot of these not where they would be. i think the transparency thing is overrated. think about viacom and redstone and rupert murdoch. what we do -- >> governance is different than transparency. >> i'm never going to invest in viacom. >> but the transparency is good. governance is skewed toward a few guys. >> looking for a company that expecting 30% revenue growth for long term revenue growth, i want trarn paren sy and good governance. >> great discussion. thank you for being here. if you want the iphone 6 plus looks like you have to wait a while. there's such high demand most

customers won't receive it for up to four weeks. up next, find out if that's gathering enough buzz to heat up the hot list. also, president obama promising to destroy isis militants in iraq and syria but secretary of defense john kerry says it's not a war. we sort it out with new "meet the press" moderator chuck todd coming up. tigers, both of you. tigers? don't be modest. i see how you've been investing.

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welcome back. apple's been the big corporate story all week. is it on the hot list today? good the see you, allen. >> good to see you, kelly. you know what? apple, it's been burning it up for us all week. putting iphone 6 in a headline, guaranteed 12,000 clicks out of the gate. today was no different with the preorder story. we had a table undated of which carriers of what and what wait times. people piling into that all day long. now basically iphone 6 plus you wait three to four weeks. other models available for, you know, day of launch delivery. looks like the 16 gig gold and silver model's most popular. tracking it all for you.

people are loving it. from sarah eisen, the trade of the decade maybe. >> it was the dollar. >> and really this is a great piece of work. she talked to a lot of analysts of placing the possible kerry trade. selling in to fund dollar assets and she's got some really good forecasting in there about how long this trade might last. people love that one, too. finally, the third one on the list today. my personal favorite because i wrote it. a pr firm, kelly, tried to bribe one of my regular freelancers to name their clients in his work for us. they went to him and offered him extra payment to do this. >> in cash? >> they said they'd pay him up to a buck a word in texas, status labs. he said i outed them in a column and got great twitters and social traffic on this one. pr professionals saying they're

aghast to be doing that. there you go. >> brazen. before you go, what are the tickers today other than appl. >> baetding facebook 10 to 1. facebook. i have seen a lot of tech tickers in this past week, people have been into go pro, twitter, all the tech plays attracting attention. >> i think you're outfitted for it, too. the steve zwrobs look going. have a great weekend. >> take care. and by the way, the topics menlgtsed, u.s. dollar, tech stocks. thinking about contrarian signs from the website. >> yeah. this one is all the attention of apple and interesting, it's the largest company in the world. or, you know, trades on with exxon. not exactly a major stock event and not clear that any of these products while they may be different in size and the watch i suppose is the big question mark, is that going to be a new device and kind of a fundamental

way? not a transformative event more say. >> rather have an alibaba pre-ipo share or iphone 6 plus? could be close. hard to get. >> erin switching to the iphone will be big. are we at war with isis or not? secretary of defense kerry saying no today. today the white house con contradicted him. chuck todd joins us to explain the confusion and still to come a millionaire nfl superstar leaving a 20-cent tip and then even more outrageous. the owner of the restaurant says runningback mccoy did something worse than leaving a bad tip and he joins us exclusively just ahead. this billboard down? people find out state farm does car loans as well as they do insurance, our bank is through. good point. grab an edge. look there's two guys on the state farm borrow better banking sign. nope for real there's two dudes on the state farm borrow better banking sign. [ reporter ] breaking news from the state farm borrow better banking sign... we're seeing two men that have climbed

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welcome back. war in washington. only if it's a war. yesterday, defense secretary john kerry said it's not a war against isis. the white house says it is. what's going on? we want to bring in chuck todd moderator of "meet the press." congratulations on the show. >> thank you. >> an important question hanging over the early days of it. we were discussing top of the order whether or not the u.s. is at war. >> well, this actually goes back years and that is there's been a democratic criticism of the republican characterization of what the battle against al qaeda is. john kerry when he ran for

president in 2004 used to cringe at the use of war on terror. barack obama when he became president you never hear him use that phrase and doesn't believe you characterize things as a war on a thing that is done, on a tactic that you can't have a war on a tactic. this is actually the backdrop for all this but they started to look silly. president announced taking on isis. what is it if it's not a war on this group called isis and saw the pentagon basically saying this is ridiculous. yes, we are at war with us sis and then the white house came along. sort of like a ridiculous debate about semantics but i wanted to give that background because that's where it comes from. an original critique of bush's character ofization of war on terror. >> chuck, i think people could understand here that, you know, the strategy laying out and the way to taub about this is evolving as war evolves but they don't understand how the white

house could bungle this so badly. >> that's the thing. this is just ingrained into the democratic party that goes like i said that goes back a decade. but i think that's why you saw in this case, frankly, by their standards, cleaned it up rather cleanly. think about cleaning up the word bungles at this point because it would have been silly to send, for instance, john kerry on the sunday shows or the white house chief of staff out and having them have to answer this question, well, if it's not a war, then what is it? and that's the -- that's i think they realized we don't want to call it a war but if you went, what are you calling it? >> it raises another point and quote bruce ekerman of "the new york times" writing for the opinion pages, quote, president obama's declaration of war against the terrorist group known as the islamic state marks a break in the american constitutional tradition.

nothing attempted by the predecessor george w. bush compares in imperial hue brings. >> it's interesting. the white house believes they're legally -- they're using the same legal justification that george w. bush used back when he started the second half of his term. this whole war against al qaeda which is the same war we're going to -- the same tactics to use against isis which is you go after al qaeda even if it's not in afghanistan or iraq. if it's in the ungoverned parts of pakistan, yemen, somalia, isis, syria, perhaps in other countries and trying to get them. it all is in this ambiguous wording 0 of that original war authorization and legal memos that many people believe are controversial and questionable that bush used as justification and the irony is candidate obama criticized it. as president he is using it. >> we'll let you go here.

james baker coming up this weekend? >> i do. white house chief of staff and jim baker, last successful american secretary of state to put a middle east coalition together for a military campaign so that and a lot of other stuff. >> all right. we're all ears, chuck. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> a preview of the sunday's "meet the press." now abusive and cheap or justified and making a point? it's a fact that millionaire runback he sean mccoy left a 20-cent tip on a $60 tip in a restaurant in philadelphia. the owner is here with his story, next. just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today.

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imagine this. a nfl superstar walks into your hamburger restaurant in his home city and then it goes sideways fast. philadelphia eagles runningback mccoy said he was making a statement with a 20-cent tip on a $61 check this week. the owner of the restaurant saying jackson made a statement, he was abusive and insulting to the staff along with leaving that tip and joining us now with his side of the story is the owner of the restaurant in philadelphia, tommy up. we did call mckyoto appear or

comment and didn't get back to us. he claims he received terrible service and would do the same thing again, tommy. >> really? hold on a second. >> as you try to compose yourself. >> to us or to someone else? >> to you apparently. >> as a server and see mccoy, be prepared he may do this again. so he's got that going for him. >> you guys said when he came into the restaurant you were excited. he's local sports star. >> i came in. i came in. >> waiter nervous? >> sure. i came in when they were seated. they were there already. it was a monday. like early-ish and pretty slow and i was, like, they must be important and sort of like in the good -- you have a nice booth by the kitchen and a booth next to where we work out on the computers and manager's there. they're basically getting butlered on. like hand and foot.

everyone was super excited to see them. and my manager goes, oh, it's le sean mccoy and won the eagles victory the day before. everyone was super pumped. >> right. >> they were talking about something. the gm at the table holding a laptop to the table so they could -- watching the ray rice video. that just happened like, you know, like watching it and stuff and basically -- >> so the first -- go ahead. >> everyone was probably -- >> treated special. >> bjs a little bit. >> okay. this is a family program. >> is it? sorry, mom. i came in and i was like, oh cool, man. this is great. came in at a great time. getting the service. all this. and he left. my manager goes, dude, he left a 20-cent tip. >> that was the first time you had idea there was anything wrong? >> anything. anything wrong. >> why would you say he was disrespectful? >> well, they came in and maybe

the service they were looking for and certain athletes but not all but i think most are great tippers and we get a lot of nba players and guys in philly -- >> what did he specifically say or do? >> basically they wouldn't give eye basically they wouldn't give eye contact and when the food came over like this like this. really kind of weird like passive aggressive stuff going on with him and his friends and they ordered a grouper. one of his group ordered a burger. lobster crab cake burger but no bun, no tomato, no lettuce and we're like that's a patti. he said i think he just wants a patti and he came over and he put it down and he's like you think i eat this? and we're like what is -- what do you mean? i was like -- my food server was there and super nervous and he's

like what? the sauce? and he's like do you think we eat mayonnaise. we don't know. this is a burger joint for men so yes we think you're going to eat mayonnaise. that's what i'm thinking in my head. >> whatever happened why is it right for you to publicize. >> it wasn't right. it wasn't right. i thought about it normally i'm the impulsive one. >> so who did and why is that right? >> she gave me -- >> did you apologize for that. >> she is very conservative and she felt a certain type of way about what happened and she gave me the nod. >> so would you apologize now to lesean to making that public. >> i would like to apologize for taking the receipt down the first time after i chickened out and put it back on. so no i'm not going to say i'm sorry. >> you explained why you posted the receipt. you said he was verbally abusive to the staff in the most

insulting ways and there were derogatory statements about women. >> i'm not going to go into details on that. >> you already dragged him through the mud though. well, he was -- excuse me, sorry. you can beep that out. yeah, i don't know. >> but you stand behind those statements. >> i do. i was really nowheervous about . all the philly sports fans we knew what was going to happen. >> is this bad for your business that people think if they don't act well -- >> at first i thought we were going to go out of business and then i've gotten 7600 and counting e-mails all of which, like it's crazy are flooding in other restaurant owners, servers, my daughter was a server and my dad was a bar tender flooding in. it's unbelievable. i'm looking through them trying to find the bad ones and they're all great and then i found a couple of bad ones and i

realized the few bad ones out of like 10,000 e-mails those guys are real jerks and we don't want them in our rest restaurant anyway. >> it sounds like this is a case of he said, he said. >> i have the truth on my side. i have nothing to hide. so i'm good. >> thank you for being here and telling your side of the story. thank you. >> appreciate it. >> what a week this was and it's going to be another long week ahead. apple iphones, iphone, alibaba pricing. we'll tell you what to watch for when we come right back. when the world moves, futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with paper money to test-drive the market. all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade.

big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.

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welcome back as mentioned a lot going on and anyway a lot going on in markets this week. in markets next week. should we talk about the fed? is it alibaba? >> coming in q 3, information technology their revenues could be hit by 3% with this 5% increase by the dollar because they have about 50% in foreign revenues and it's even steep for consumer discretionaries and consumer staples. people are excited about the dollar going up and

strengthening but it can be a negative hit on the foreign revenues. that might be the excuse we hear when people start missing their revenue numbers. >> even as the economy numbers are getting better. people are looking at 3%. seeing better signs out there. >> i'm going to make a comment on that. i'm still hung up on the receipt segment and i think -- >> the quality of service discussion. >> between your interview with chuck todd talking about isis and the quality service and receipt my mind is elsewhere right nowment i think it does remind us that yes there are other things going on in the world at large than the markets. >> and just to bring up a point you made that is important there's a lot of people now going public with restaurant receipts. do we need to have a serious national conversation about whether or not that's the right thing to do. where's privacy? >> there's no privacy in anything anymore. >> i know but should there be some expectation. >> there's been this whole meme on the internet with wealthy people spending $20,000 for

lunch and having their receipt published but more seriously to next week, next week scotland is important and has been the sleeper story in this market. more importantly you have the northern times you have all of these people say look if we drop out but still stay part of the euro, the currency, then why wouldn't we do this. so i think the combination of the euro and scottland providing a model, this could be huge for redrawing the boundaries of europe. >> right. >> and the market's not pricing. >> they certainly aren't if they leave. even if they stay -- >> they're going to vote yes. people i talked to in scottland have pretty good information. they think it's going to go yes. >> so that leads to -- does that support the rev ren dumb thatfee u.k. staying in europe and there's a lot of unraveling.

>> they wish they were first. >> they would just call it richistan and they would leave. >> i read a book once about it. why should people invested in this stock market worry about what scottland does next thursday. >> you know, from a u.s. economic perspective right now it's really all about the currency markets. not so much about earnings. scotland is only 10% of revenues for the u.k. i don't see it from a corporate earnings perspective. more global economic currency. >> it's the financial market. it's not that we need to be worried about it like this is going to lead to a repeat of 2011. it's the fact that people haven't factored into currency equations. >> it's a political risk we never considered. >> that's what weekends are for. doing homework. tipping well at restaurants. thanks everybody for being here. a rowdy show.

fast money is coming up in a few moments with melissa. >> everybody is talking about alibaba. we have the first u.s. analyst who actually initiate coverage ahead of alibaba's ipo. we'll have him on. >> straight over to you guys. >> thanks have a great weekend. it's fast money friday. new york city times square, traders tonight are here. tonight's top story why this fullback could be different. the s&p only down 6 points today. >> yes. >> it's where we are seeing weakness that caught our eye. energy stocks extending losses. russell 2000 down 1% and bio tech down nearly 1.5%. what do you make of these moves? it is within the markets where we should look. >> yeah within the markets what i was seeing was another part of this whole