tv Fast Money CNBC September 23, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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p.m. eastern time. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" coming up in a few moments. i found six tear-down playbook. plus we have the analysts who made the right call ahead of the apple launch. stock is down 37% since his downgrade. we have him back on to tell us whether or not there is value in the stock now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. another losing day for stocks. the s&p clocking in with its third straight day of losses while the nasdaq hit a five-week low. quite a different story from friday when the s&p hit an all-time high and the makts were celebrating the biggest ipo in history. did that mark the top? we ask that question last week. >> bottom line is big ipos don't happen and market bottoms. they don't happen from the bottom to the middle. they happen from the middle to
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the top. >> we should note that since the close ahead of the alibaba ipo, the s&p is down by 1.3%. russell 2000, down by 3.4%. quite a big move in just the past few trading sessions. >> i think it's way too early to say is this the top. i understand what nick's saying but also remember, alibaba is actually a company that makes money. if they came with all this fanfare and they didn't make money and there was some hype, then i would say, yeah, potentially this marked the top. there is certainly a hibernating bear inside me that would love that symmetry to line up. >> even the bear is saying that wasn't necessarily the top. >> it could have been the sentiment top. there was so much invested in this thing going off and working. it did work. remember, the stock down 5% from the highs in the last two trading days, alibaba. but you also had a stock up 38% from the ipo pricing. all of the energy that we have invested in apple, let's not forget. we also have a sentiment top
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forming perhaps in the next week or so with the release of the phone, really good numbers. who knows? to me, these are two massive names. there's almost a trillion dollars in market cap wrapped up in those two names and a lot of investors are very invested in them. >> i think you're right on with sentiment top. take a look at apple. a huge weighting in the qs. traded well. bank of america also trading well. mobile i, it trade really well. >> apple traded really well today. we'll see. the longer it stays at these levels the more inclined i am -- market doesn't give you that long to sell the top. i got to be fair about this. the good news for the bulls is the financials. the financials continue to hold up. but the russell to me is a canary in the coal mine. it's been that way for months.
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traded horribly today. it has been trading horribly. i think it goes to $108. it is imperative that it holds there and very quietly the bond market is recovering nicely over the last couple of sessions. again i don't think the growth is there. i think rates continue to head lower. i think it was a blip on the radar screen. those are the things that are somewhat concerning. >> you've had a winner of a trade, a pair trade on in terms of short russell -- >> long s&p, short russell. that's working. that's one of the very few bright spots we have in the last couple of days. but i think this phenomenon could continue a little longer. i still think that that valuation differential is there and it certainly is more narrow than it was. we put it on at zero. it's now 10%. that's a significant move. but prior to that move there was an enormous multi-year russell move that i still think there's room for that trade to keep working. >> what point should we get concerned that what the russell is doing is a precursor to what the s&p will do?
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most technicians and people with a market memory remember plenty of periods in which the russell will move, then the s&p -- >> guy's brought it up and the russell move is very interesting in and of itself. i actually think there is a bigger storm brewing in the large cap and s&p 500 in particular. i think it is going to take some time to play out but it may already start to be playing out. there is a lot of talk about the death cross in the russell. i don't know what any of that means. those are indicators. i don't use them. but simply in the s&p, when you think back to the break-out earlier in the summer, look at this chart back to 1900, that's also the 200-day moving average. that seems like a very logical place to pull back. there won't be a lot of damage done. but this one point -- think about the names that have done a lot of heavy lifting. there is not a lot of revenue growth. there's been a lot of earnings growth, close to double digits but a lot of that is manufacturing. i think you'll see 1900 very soon before year's end. >> i saw some stats today from
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s&p which were staggering in terms of the slowdown in buybacks. the latest full quarter for data that we have, down 1.6% year on year. no big deal. down 27% quarter on quarter. there is market slowdown that's happening. >> they put out a great research report where they showed roughly 70% of free cash flow in the s&p 500 is being used for buybacks. at some point you start bumping up against -- you just don't have any more cash for it. we'll talk more about tax inversion deals. that could take the air out of the m and a business. i think we should be worried right now about the russell. that's telling you something. the economy seems to be fine. the u.s. dollar is stronger. that should help. you should want to be in the small caps, names that are in the u.s. why is it flat and down? i would be very worried about it. one last question about alibaba. the trading action that we've
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seen since its much fanfare first day of trading. today it had terrible price action. >> but if i said the ipo was $68, it opened at $75 -- >> remarkable move. >> let's try it keep it in context. you're right, over the last couple days hasn't traded well. one that really hasn't traded well up until today has been yahoo!. i think the sell-off if yahoo! is overdone. i think that's where you want to be. baba will find its footing at some point. i have no idea what price that is. but if it went from $68 to $75 to $80 to $9, we'd be saying look at tremendous price action. >> i've been shocked at how well amazon has traded. it hung in today, given that you have this so much more attractive on a valuation basis, i'm just shock that amazon levitates. there's no other word for it. there's no gravity to it. >> let's talk about another
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potential headwind. at least for the m and a space. obama administration announcing new rules to combat tax invergsz making it more difficult to u.s. companies to cut their tax bills by moving headquarters outside the united statestates. new rules deflate future deal holes for fizer pfizer to come . let's bring in edward mills. ed, great to have you with us joining us from london. so there is a slight delay. first, a lot of these stocks are feeling some reaction to all of this. you though believe that these deals will still go through? >> yeah, i do. i've been speaking with our event desk here at fbr, as well as event desks across the street. while the rules that came out were slightly more onerous or more onerous than they expected, essentially what the treasury
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said is that if you want to do an inversion, what we're going to do to you is subject more of your earnings to u.s. tax code for longer than we thought. but they didn't kind of do the things about earnings stripping or changing the definition to debt to equity. ultima ultimately, i think as companies make this decision that most of my earnings are still going to be overseas not subject to the u.s. tax code, ultimately i can unlock that cash without paying taxes. it might take ten years. economics of this still wok and people are still saying we want to go through with these deals. that's the expectation on the street. >> at the same time, you're a policy analysis so i have to ask you the question in this sort of context. treasury apps issues these rules. makes the obama administration look like they're doing something. it buys time for congress to then do something in the fall, in the winter, somewhere down the line. what is the possibility in your view that congress actually accomplishes something and that there are stricter rules,
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legislation, that actually come out and hit inversions again. >> i don't buy it. i don't see it happening. i think what you have is that congress does not have much time. we are in recess until the election. not much time in the lame duck. congress ultimately reacts to a crisis and to a deadline. to the extent that treasury has already acted here, what's the pressure on congress to go further? ultimately, this is bringing up a conversation about the need for wholesale tax reform. if republicans cut a deal on inversion only, they're losing a lot of their steam behind pushing towards a territorial system. they don't want to do this. what they recognize is this has been a game of whackamo for a generation. any other congressional fix will just extend that game. only solution here is tax reform. that's what will ultimately change this but unfortunately that's going to take a long time. >> so you have -- say the rules would allow them somehow to do
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it even if it is not quite as valuable. what about the perception that any of these companies that might do one of these will have a lot of negative press and it will be a tough pr spin? >> yeah. well, i think you look at the deals that are out there, that are still likely to close. they're not necessarily household names. they're household names around cnbc but the average american does not know a lot of the companies that are considering this. walgreens decided not to do this. burger king did it but they did it in a way that they would have been able to p test even if the law changes. what i'm looking at here is i don't think a lot of americans ask where their drug is manufactured. if it saves their life, they'll take it, they don't care about the corporate tax structure. >> good point, ed. thanks. ed mills, fbr, tonight from london. karen, you've been in some of these trades. what do you think the impact will ultimately be? what he had is saying is this is going to be the worst case scenario and these deals are going to go through anyway.
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>> i wouldn't be surprised if there is even more opportunity meaning the spreads go out wider. i don't think they will magically narrow up. there's a lot of pain in the arbitrage community in the last several weeks. some of which i felt which isn't fun. these things, they start off and they look bad. maybe ultimately they get resolved but you can lose a fair amount of money in the interim. >> medtronic was a stock that was headed higher long before the inversion stuff. this was a stand-alone company that was doing very well. medtronic obviously sold off 3% today. if this stock holds $60, which had been previous tops a couple times over the last couple years, i think you got to buy medtronic with both hands. they're not going to knock the cover off the ball in terms of earnings but it is not crazy expensive at 14 times earnings. this is a name you want to buy regardless of what happens with
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any of this inversion news. >> i would just add this smacks a little bit about the environment toward the end of '06 and '07 from a sentiment standpoint when lbos start ared to become less attractive. when you think about what are some of the things that fuel late stages of rallies, it is m and a, the kind of animal spirit. if this is one thing that if karen's right and the community starts to feel some pain, people peel out, not good for sentiment in general. it is also one of the legs of the bullish argument that there needs to be more consolidation in this market. >> to me, it is a small issue but it is a bigger issue that could have longer term impact. we handoff from the buybacks which we know are ending to the m and a stage. if that starts to falter, that's a problem. think about a ceo trying to make these decisions. it goes to uncertainty. are you going to spend that extra dollar or hire that extra person if you don't know what it will cost you over the next couple years or the fact that
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the rules could change in the middle of the game. it adds a layer of uncertainty we don't need right now. blackberry getting hit hard today. how is b.k. playing that move next. later, the rumor mill heating up on the street. stocks flying higher. separating fact from fiction. how to trade these moves straight ahead.
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an earnings alert now. kate rogers has bed bath & beyond moving higher in the session. >> it was a beat on both, melissa. earnings, $1.17 versus $1.14 that was expected. also a beat on revenue, reporting $2.94 billion versus $2.89 billion that was expected. the stock soaring in after-hours trading. guidance for the full year looks good. next quarter a bit light. comp store sales looking good. the context to this move is that the space -- container store williams-sonoma, pier i warned on profits and/or revenues. >> nice job. >> didn't last night karen finerman in this seat say it
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looked really interesting. >> yes. >> she's too humble to mention it. >> maybe they have missed and guided down for the last three quarters in a row and soon he or later you just grind estimates so low that you're going to beat sooner or later? doesn't that make sense? >> you are completely shooting it down? once again. your shootdown thmethod. >> this reminds me of lulu last week. a series of misses, you get to a certain point where you can't miss anymore. blackberry getting a -- getting hit with a downgrade as the company reports earnings this friday. they are launching their brand-new phone, the passport, tomorrow. i'm sure the lines around the block just like the iphone. sleeping bags. marshmallows. >> you certainly can't buy blackberry because you're looking for a line. nobody gets the publicity apple
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gets. downgraded to market perform which -- what's the point anyway? stock was down 3%. this is a turnaround story. i still think there is a lot more that this company can do. ceo is fantastic. has done everything he has said so far. coming in to the last quarter of the year is when you'll see the turnaround. we have earnings this friday and i'm staying long. >> what do you think, dan? >> i think the stock's run too far, too fast. when the stock was $7, $8, that was a great call. i don't think the value is there now. i just don't think it is a great play here. seems like one of the last several or so restructurings that we've heard in the last five years. >> we had the capitulation bottom couple months ago when it traded down on a monster volume day. i think i'm in dance camp here. feels like it topped out. technical level suggests it wants to go a little bit lower from here. i can see it trading with a $9.75 handle.
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>> i don't know anybody with a blackberry anymore. i'm just -- i can't imagine somebody buying a passport. >> if they can unlock the value in technology, it is with the company, it is with the security. it is everything they shall have been doing for the last five years that they are finally starting to do. allergan in talks to buy salex. >> this is a complicated one. we actually had the spread off and on several times. i think if they wanted to they could do this to the shareholders. they could lever up and buy it. the shareholders clearly would not be happy with bill leading the charge there. i don't know if it is all a threat but let me just sort of give you the lay of the land. it is merger mania, craziness, in this space.
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i'll just show you a little bit of -- break it down for you. this is what's happening. valiant hearts allergan. allergan does not heart valiant. i don't mow hknow how all of th ends up. i am long some of them in there. it makes me think green hill. >> general hospital episode. such a great chart by you. >> it is a love hexagon. >> have you ever been involved in a love hexagon? >> even if i were, i wouldn't share with the audience. >> what happens, karen? >> what happens is -- >> still playing the spread? >> i'm out of the spread as of today. i'm actually surprised allergan hung in there as well -- or did well, actually.
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it seems like war games to me. there are so many ways to win but there are also so many ways to lose. i have some asstra ztrazeneca ae pfizer. that's the kind of work we do. >> hearts. still ahead, the biotech name that's logging huge gains as both the u.s. and canada greenlight the u.s. of its ebola treatment drug. apple's product launch on september 9th was disappointing for gt advanced technologies. is there more bad news in store for the stock? the analyst who's been right on this stock just cut estimates today. we've got him straight ahead. one day,
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♪ time for a little rumor patrol. two stocks seeing big moves higher in a slew of rumors hitting the street. 3-d systems. piper jafrry saying the company struck an unexpected $6 million to $8 million deal with general motors. 3-d systems telling cnbc they could not comment on the report. what was really fascinating to me, because i'm not familiar with the weather in detroit, recently there were heavy rains in a short amount of time. therefore the machines that they had order got damaged. this is sort of a replacement. >> it rains most of the place except for in the desert, but that's -- >> you know what i'm saying. >> in terms of 3-d, i think
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these are the type of deals you'll see. for me these are long-term plays. i bought a basket episode. ddd, stratasys, not a giant portion of my portfolio but i want to hold them for a long period of time. a revolutionary, transformative technology, factory in a box that you can use in a rain, desert or detroit. >> $600 million revenue. okay. you're good with that. >> i am holding these for the next two to five years. i'm expecting that -- did the stock get ahead of itself today? probably. i'm expecting you will see a transformation in manufacturing from these. >> analysts say it has no impact on eps estimates whatsoever. it is going to be nothing. at the same time we've had analysts on who have --
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>> they just transplanted a printed spine into somebody. >> skeletons. factory in a box. >> why not? it's hard for me to be in b.k.'s camp in two to five years. who knows? general electric gets in on their own, they knock all these guys off by the wayside. stocks remain volatile. i you got to trade them. i'm sort of in karen's camp, if you've enjoyed this move, you got to be taking money off the table. go-go popping on rumors of a verizon deal. company weeks back i asked go-go's ceo about the verizon buyout rumor. >> we do not comment on m and a and i won't here today. we are talking to all kinds of partners about how we can increase engagement with our services on the aircraft. >> the in-flight why phify
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provider striking deals with virgin atlantic and t-mobile. >> i think you have to stay with it. it had had a big move today. if you believe in charts, it actually looks decent here. breaks through 20%, 23% short interest. where there's smoke, there's fire in this. it is going to be volatile but i think the upside far outweighs the downside in terms what have could actually come out in the rumor mill and what deals could happen. >> when you think about how competitive carriers are being on the wireless front, pricing's going for zero people for data and for calling. just like it did in land lines. this is a new frontier for all intents and purposes. yes, this company has big contracts. they probably last for a long time. on a market cap basis, it would be like a rounding error. >> if i were a go-go shareholder, the wild card would be at&t is starting its own service. >> i agree pricing margin, going
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the marginal price which is next to zero. i'd be afraid to own a stock whose ticker's go-go. >> good point by karen. coming up next, we are tearing open the iphone 6 and trading all the components inside. stick around. "fast money" is straight ahead. and you can choose from 2 to 10 lines. wow, sounds like a great deal. so i'm getting exactly what i want, then? appears so. now, um, i'm not too sure what to do with my arms right now 'cause this is when i usually start throwing things. oh, that's terrifying at&t's best-ever pricing. 2-10 lines, 10 gigs of truly shareable data, unlimited talk and text, starting at $130 a month.
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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq marketsite in the heart of new york city. still ahead, a look inside the iphone of and all of its xoen fe component parts. plus the biotech stock soaring on headlines of the ebola drug treatment. so far the iphone 6 is a winner for apple. what do the record sales make for the componentmakers? first, the supplier behind the accelerometer. i know, guy, you don't know what that may be but apparently invensense -- >> when we went in our test drive -- i like the stock.
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crazy as that -- valuation is crazy ridiculous. i get it. but huge short interest. a lot of people shooting against this. if you look at the way the stock has traded since the beginning of 2013 give or take, we've had large moves to the up side, followed by small down drafts, followed by the next like higher. i think we just saw down draft. i think you can own this stock. i think shorts get squeezed. you sell it on a ka titillation day, whenever that may be. you'll have one of those days i believe. >> the bosh accelerometer is what caused it to be involved. >> with all of these xecomponen suppliers, that's the risk until they have a patent. they'll trade just with apple. some of the other ones traded right with apple.
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i think you have a little more up side noo in these names because you can also use these products for other uses. >> accelerometers. qualcomm one of the chips inside there. >> for qualcomm i think for a long time it was attached to apple. 5% of the revenues come from apple here and it is not really the most sophisticated stuff. stuff with qualcomm is the buildobuil buildout with china. they're under scrutiny of the government over there. if you own it i think you want to keep a tight stop at $75 here because i've tried to own it and it just doesn't work in a market are where the stock has been a massive outlier.
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>> they were just caution on it for a lot of reasons dan just spoke about. $75 is your line in the sand. it has surprised before on the upside but it's not been trading well now for the last couple weeks. nxp. >> just a minute ago we talk about we were all here just a minute ago when we talked about other uses for it. here's one i like because it has other uses for the technology. beyond the near field it also is in the connected car space. everybody seeing ads on tv about the first connected car. that is the next kind of frontier for this. even though the stock is up tremendously, price action today was great. i drew $70 as my stop. i like it here.
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>> sticking with the apple ecosystem, shares of gt second noll technology soaring today. pavel, congratulations on a good call on g tech. the stock is down 37% since your downgrade on august 28th. the market is telling you today that perhaps some people find value here at these levels, 37% lower. what are your thoughts? >> the short answer is i think there is downside in the stock to the high teens. so $8 to $10. that's where the stock was at the beginning of the year. essentially all of the gains that took the stock at one point all the way to $18 came from speculation about and the and the iphone specifically. so to be clear, a lot of black boxes here. apple of course will not let its
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suppliers reveal any details about financial terms. you alluded to my estimate cuts today. these are more of a guesstimate than anything else. but to me it is almost i impossible to see how this company can make the street consensus revenue numbers for next year with just sapphire in the phone -- in the watch, i should say. >> there's been talk of maybe them having more sapphire in phones made at the end of 2015. do you have any thoughts on that? >> well, again, apple's plans are somewhat opaque by definition until they're announced so i can't rule that out. but i think that if apple wanted to implement sapphire across this broad portfolio, they could have easily revealed those plans two weeks ago at the product launch. let's remember that using sapphire adds to the cost of the product. right? by definition, it's higher price
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than glass. there are also some down sides to it. for example, a device with sapphire screen uses more battery power, everything else being equal, than a device with a glass screen. so it is not a cure-all, by any means. it can help from the standpoint of being break-resistant, scratch-resistant, but if it adds, as i've estimated, as much as $30 to the cost of a watch, for something like the phone it could be considerably higher. there comes a point when consumers would simply look at the added cost and say it's not worth it. >>pavel, first of all, great call. we saw a couple big volume days. i wouldn't be surprised to see it back to 13.5%, 14%. could you see this trading up
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into the 13.5, 14 level? >> 8 to 10 is where i might turn more constructive on it. short term, sure, it could, absolutely go down a couple bucks. up a couple bucks. next week is important because the company will give its first commentary since the apple product launch. gt's been very quiet. again, apple restrained what they can say so i would not expect any huge amount of detail on next week's business update but hopefully they'll be able to shed at least some light how they are thinking about financial guidance in the wake of the apple announcement. my guess is they'll cut guidance. but as i said, it is a black box. >> pavel, thanks so much for calling in. black box. that's never -- that's never good. >> but remember, the stock -- a lot of what pavel talked about has been priced into the stock.
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he made a tremendous call on this. the market is trying to get ahead of it. $10.75 seems to be that support. do we get to 8? maybe. >> as of last week, i think we highlighted a trade on this show where somebody was buying the 11 puts out a couple months in big, big size. likely protection so we've seen a lot of that. when you see a stock move the way this stock has moved in the last few months, it was up 100%, then down 30%. if you own it and have a longer term time horizon, sometimes even with option prices very high it could make sense to protect it to keep yourself in the stock in the near-term volatile situation. >> you had a great call last night in terms of buying gt here. >> i think you got to stay with it. dan had a great call when he moved to the smart board. well done. we talked about how the chart looked like -- we tied the whole "fast money" over the last year together in one little episode.
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but i think it flushed out the last couple days. there's a huge short interest in the name. he could be right. think it goes to 13.5 first. >> these stocks have been awful. yes, it bounced today. maybe you get a couple more days in this but the whole space has been under pressure. i think there are more places to be than peabody. >> a drop for dick's sporting goods, down 2% after downgrade to a market perform at william blair. >> they said the downgrade was on amazon, because they're going to lose market share to amazon. that's not quite a great decision. down to $42, then i might get decided about this. >> a pop for facebook. dan nathan.
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>> this is exactly what facebook should be doing. when you think about it, they demonstrated their ability to kind of monetize this move from their users from the desktop to mobile. now they need to capture more of those advertising dollars. this deal sounds like it will be giving them more information how to target advertising dollars. it is going straight at google. if you're an investor in facebook at the all-time highs here with the $200 million market cap you want to see deals like this. you want to see them going after a company that has billions an billions in untold amount of market share in this space. >> pop for walter energy up 3%. karen. >> we briefly touched on this last night. you might want to be tempted to look at this and say where could it go. it could go to zero. it is probably worth taking the time to see are where the debt is trading. they're much smarter than the equity. debt is trading 30-some-odd cents on the dollar. that's not optimistic for the
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future of walter. >> a drop for imitation pandas. metta world peace is playing basketball if china it fall under his new name the panda's friend. to celebrate this cultural exchange the former nn are star had special shoes designed featuring detachable pandas. only one problem with the shoes -- they are not pandas -- they're plain old bears. as a public service we have to clear up here any panda versus bear confusion. this is a panda, sleeping in a tree. this is a bear. this is a mother panda with her newborn cub. this is a bear. this is a panda crewing on a branch. and these are bears. any questions? miniature oversight, meta. we wish you best in your new season in china. >> that was a bamboo branch. i'm just pointing that out. his name is now metta world peace? >> no. he changed it to.
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now is the panda's friend. >> what was his birth name? >> ron artest. >> oh! >> so good. wow. >> ding, ding, ding. the magic of the earpiece. >> but he still doesn't know what a panda is. >> that's symbol for a panda? next, the cdc out with startling new figures on just how many people could be infected with ebola by the beginning of next year. later on, options traders making a big bet on one dollar store chain. stick around.
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africa. there is no guarantee the drug will be test there had but a few groups are participating. all of these companies trying to make their drugs available for potential testing. that's really important because these drugs have only been tested in animals so far. this could give some indication of whether they'll work in people. if you look at the companies that are in the ebola space, tekmira is the one that's up the most. the others aren't getting positive bumps from this news quite so much. one reason could be this could be a validation for tekmira's platform. it is working on other platforms, like hepatitis b. tekmira the winner in terms of trying to treat ebola. >> does it have other drugs? or is it an ebola play or nothing?
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>> it is not an ebola play or nothing, but if the ebola programs don't work out, analysts say there could be a fear for the platform. folks are pretty excited about it. they say it is an underestimated opportunity. there are a lot of questions about whether governments will be placing large order for these ebola drugs and do they even have enough supply, can they manufacture it quickly enough. there's still a lot of questions surrounding ebola for investment opportunity. meg mentioned the big bump in the stock. since 7/17, the stock is up 169%. wow. >> that's the risk. right? it may not be necessarily a binary play but if there is an issue, the stock will be cut in half. >> how much does it cost now to treat with zmapp? i have no idea. bad karma feels like to me. >> doesn't feel like the story's going away any time soon,
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unfortunately. which to me means the stock continues higher. the stock traded $30 in march. i think you could see it back to those levels just on the news flow alone. doesn't mean the stock is viable. doesn't mean the company to your point is a one-trick pony. the news flow i think could take the stock to $30. mpl options traders taking sides in the battle for family dollar but are they betting on a win for dollar general or dollar tree? dan nay than heads to the smart board to break the trade down. in my kitchen. ie [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2. at a special site for tv viewers;
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you'll bust your brain-box. all on thinkorswim, from td ameritrade. the dollar store wars continue as dollar general and dollar tree duke it out over the acquisition of family dollar. according to one savvy trader, the winner is quite clear. dan's over at the smart board with this trade. there dollar tree today was one of the single largest blocks in options today. total volume was three times the average daily. when dollar general was $61.66, somebody bought 25,000 of the november calls. that breaks more than 10% of november expiration.
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when you think about what's going on here, these guys are launching a proxy fight for their bid for family dollar. dollar tree is the preferred acquirer seems like from family dollar. when you look at chart, one-year chart, where do these options break even? up above 10%. the idea of consolidation in this space looks very attractive but to me, i can't imagine too many scenarios where dollar general is 10% higher over what's going on in the space. i'm just going to make one last point. maybe this trader is thinking this. this is implied volatility, the price of options over the last year. they're down significantly when all these bids were flying around for family dollar. maybe it is just a cheap way to lever existing longs with options if you do get some super move. >> karen, do you like any of these dollar plays? you actually mentioned you're going to buy more macy's today. >> yes. did buy more macy's today. not sure how it will end up playing out but i feel like it
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is so near the end, the risk/reward has changed. macy's i think is an outstanding risk/reward. we have some time here. let's do some tweets. let's kick off the first tweet here. karen. now that ge is getting out of the appliance business what do you thing? >> couple things. they actually put the appliance business up for sale at the height of the credit crisis which makes you think, wow, they're desperate for money. fast forward five, six years. they got a big price for it. that's not reason to be in ge. it didn't really move the needle. i like ge. i like the industrial play. have nothing to do with the having sold or kept the appliance business. >> guy, is ford about to accelerate? >> clever tweet. we have a smart audience. morgan stanley went cautious on the space earlier this monthpy think they downgraded ford, lowered the price target to 16.
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the price action is abysmal. i know the investor day i think is on the 29th. i think you have a couple more days to the downside. i'm not in love with what the stock's been doing. >> stay tune. there's a gap out there. that's keeping you from the healthcare you deserve. at humana, we believe the gap will close when healthcare gets simpler. when frustration and paperwork decrease. when grandparents get to live at home instead of in a home. so let's do it. let's simplify healthcare.
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time for the final trade. let's go "around the horn." >> ibm. shortage on puts looking out to october. >> brian kelly. >> for the first time in a long time gold's shiny. i buy gdx here. >> really. karen. >> i'm old school with volatility. for me that's google. either kind, the g or with the l. doesn't matter. >> guy. >> ron artest pull was -- stunned disbelief. we do a knick game together? >> i love knick games. i do, honestly.
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>> agrium traded really well today. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. "mad money" starts right now. in the meantime more mad money with james kramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. mad money starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to save you money. my job not just to entertain but educate. call us
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