tv Fast Money CNBC September 29, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
5:00 pm
time together, they ate together, went out together and they played better together. >> that's exactly my point. the europeans have that template in place. so whatever captain they choose fits in to that template and into that business model, as you said. and it works perfectly. it helps that they have a couple of the best players in the world, but i will say this -- the americans need to figure that out. >> tripp eisenhower of the golf channel, thanks so much. "fast money" is next. live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city, times square, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, pete najarian, guy adami. ford selling off in the afternoon on weak guidance from the company. mcdonald's getting a pop to the up side on rumors a large investor may have taken a stake in the fast food giant. we'll take a look at both those stories coming up. first, emerging volatility. protests in hong kong growing today as residents take to the streets calling for democratic elections. the hang seng hitting a
5:01 pm
two-month low in trading. brazil's stocks getting hit ahead of presidential elections there. the ewz closing down nearly 6%. with all this drama overseas is the u.s. the best place for investors. pete najarian, you say yes. >> i stand by that. i think when you look around, you are trying to get the read through all the clouds and you have all this geopolitical going on everywhere it seems like, started with ukraine, started over there. then in the middle east, now china, hong kong. i think because of all that there are better opportunities to be able to look in the u.s. when you look at the turn today in the markets, it really started with the chips. then we started to see some of the financials off the lows. not saying all of these actually moved back into positive territory but certainly a nice strong move off of the lows in specific areas. it is about fundamentals. it is about yield and it is about different folks who actually have growth. you look at the chips, the techs, some of the financials, i think they hit the bill. >> think it is a lot about the
5:02 pm
dollar, too. look at emerging markets over the last three or four weeks. hands down 6.5%. there's been plenty of protests in hong congress since '97. i would not get too worked up over this. i think geopolitics is not something you're really rallying on. brazil is down 6% because there is an election. there might not even be any changes. even if they are, brazil was way overdone. i think india is a place where a lot of good news -- they got the election result they wanted. to say geopolitics are knocking the yen down, no. i think you c-- >> we've seen this, volatility in every other as set class other than u.s. equities. yes, the u.s. is the best neighborhood in kind of a crappy block right now. that being said or visa versa. but think about these u.s. multi-nationals that are in the
5:03 pm
s&p. we've seen volatility pick up in the last week or two. these companies get half their sales from overseas so they could see -- this is a ford thing. they're going to see losses in south america where the dollar has had some big gains. >> if the real is down 10% in the u.s. dollar in this quarter and the euro is down 6% against the u.s. dollar during this quarter, you'd think they'd see it in the earnings when they report. >> we'll see. the encouraging thing if you're bullish, the market had every opportunity to wash out today. s&p down 18. you could have made an easy argument the weakness would have continue. the s&p continues to hold that level that we flagged, 1,970. that and transports unchanged to slightly higher on the day. the russell was nowhere today. if you're bullish you are encouraged by the fact that we seemingly continue to hold critical support levels. >> are you? >> no. i still think the bond market
5:04 pm
wants to go higher. you have to respect the price action and the s&p was strong. >> volatility is up 30% from the lows. i think over all yore the market it is going higher. you have payroll numbers on friday. spanish bonds under pressure because of a vote. pimco noise, just noise to be clear, but markets are looking for reasons right now to be nervous. this is a week where you have pmis, a lot of macro data. i don't think you need to do anything right now. let's bring in dennis gartman from "the gartman letter" who is here at the nasdaq in the flesh. >> you'll apparently let almost anybody on the show these days. >> apparently. no. when you look at the stunning pictures in hong kong, what do you think to first in terms of the impact? >> first, the comments thus far we've seen, this will be beneficial to the u.s. dollar, no question. if you're a nervous investor anywhere around the world, you'll go to the best neighborhood.
5:05 pm
we are without question the best neighbor. it is good for the dollar. the dollar has been going you up, it will continue to go up. it is probably good for the short end of the yield curve in the united states because when money comes here, where is it going to go. nervous money goes into the debt market, not the equities market with being the short end of the debt market, not the long end. beneficiaries are the dollar and the short end uof the curve. it is not necessarily bad for the stock market but it is good for the dollar. >> is there a trade getting out of the hang seng and going to shanghai. if you believe beijing is in control, why not just mark shanghai? >> i'd rather go to singapore. i think that's a better choice. if you have to move to someplace in the emerging markets. an old line that rings to me all the time, "the emerging markets are the markets from which you cannot emerge in an emergency." i think that makes imminent good sense. sometimes during periods of time like this -- this has reminis h.
5:06 pm
this is not going away this weekend. >> market levelization, allowing foreigners in means hong kong could actually be trading at a premium for just a little bit more time. that's another reason there's probably pressure on this market. you want to talk about asian markets that i think will be defensive, taiwan, ewt, i think korea's something you should be very concerned about. with the dollar strength is the yen's weakness. this is terrible for korea which is competing as an exporting country with japan especially in the same electronics space. i think korea is vulnerable. it's a market i think i've said it is very interesting from an earnings perspective but again be careful with the macro right now.
5:07 pm
>> a lot of fixed income folks were saying it is a safe haven play from hong kong. >> i think that's exactly what's going on. not a question. again, if money is going into the u.s. dollar, then it's frightened and moves someplace, it comes to the dollar, it is not going into the equities market, it is going into the bond market. not to the long end, but to the short end. it knows it can get out without much damage to itself if it wants to get out. >> two areas -- india and brazil. india had a huge run-up. they've pulled back since the hoo highs of september 8th. not much. >> if you look at it from a political circumstance you have to applaud what's going on in india. modi is going down in history as a real motivator of india. you have to be impressed by him. brazil is confused. both the women who are running, it now goes to a runoff, neither of which are pro capitalists. they're both quasi socialists. one is an ex-marxist guerrilla. she happens to be the president right now.
5:08 pm
nonetheless, i don't put much credence in eefrt them. they don't spawn confidence in me at this point. brazil is always the country ahead of it and they can't get a grasp on it and it seems to be doing it again. of the two, no question. if you have to make a choice between those two, give me india. >> are you more bullish, less bullish of the equity markets now versus two weeks ago? is. >> less bullish. less bullish. just a little bit. i'm nervous. i'm nervous guy. >> why are you nervous? >> underneath the market the technicals have been deteriorating for some period of time. we are long in the tooth as far as the economic environments are concerned. we're long in the tooth as far as the longevity of this bull market is concerned. we failed to make new highs. number of stocks trading below the 100-day moving average has continued to increase. that's disconcerting to me. i own steel. i own fracking companies but i've hedged it with derivatives
5:09 pm
to give myself basically a neutral position in the market. i'm fairly comfortable being neutral. the technicals deteriorating is bothersome. >> dennis gartman of "the gartman letter." >> dennis beginning ever september pointed out reversal in the name like alcoa. he got out of that name that he'd been if for some time. he mentions steel so we'll talk about it. we talked about u.s. steel the potential to go to $45. it did. now we find it right back to $40. i think stocks that have worked have pulled back giving you another opportunity to get in a lot of these names. >> i'm on their page, too. if everything in the world is pointing to a stronger dollar, this goes back to u.s. multi-nationals. i'm just going to say this. these large u.s. mega caps that have been buying back stock hand over fist.
5:10 pm
pep c pepsi is a great example. this stock trades at 19 times next year's earnings. this is manufactured earnings growth and it is not good at this valuation. >> the only other thing -- the other side is if the world is getting stronger, if the dollar is getting stronger, it is because this economy is doing better and the rest of the world central banks are doing everything they can -- >> is it getting better -- that's the thing. nothing anyone said tonight says the u.s. economy is getting better. >> i'm not saying everything is extraordinary. the u.s. economy and a lot of multi-nationals will get growth in a place -- i'm not poo-pooing currencies. this is the number one thing people worry about with multi-nationals. if their export environment is that much stronger, if their sales are better, the currency impabct should be muted somewha. it is really about the dollar that the u.s. as a market the volatility we are seeing is not a terrible thing.
5:11 pm
i don't think we have to have a 15% correction. two weeks ago we are at all-time highs. suddenly people are getting worked up. >> it's not a spike of any ridiculous levels. there is volatility but it was up to 17, then it went back to 16. >> is this a buying opportunity for ford? dreamworks soaring on reports it could buy softbank. for over 60,000 california foster children,
5:13 pm
extra curricular activities help provide a sense of identity and a path to success. joining the soccer team. getting help with math. going to prom. i want to learn to swim. it's hard to feel normal, when you can't do the normal things. to help, sleep train is collecting donations for the extra activities that, for most kids, are a normal part of growing up. not everyone can be a foster parent... but anyone can help a foster child.
5:14 pm
shares of ford getting had hit after an investor meeting said they expect a loss if europe this year. phil lebeau joins us on the phone. >> a few headlines stand out by wall street analysts in dearborn. the first immediate one, ford thinks profit for this year will be lowered by at least $1 billion. they expect $6 billion. previous guidance was between $7 billion and $8 billion. a number of factors weighing on
5:15 pm
that. we'll talk about that more in a bit. in europe, loss in 2015 will be worse than expected. only going to be about $250 million, but remember they previously were expecting wall street to at least break even next year. now they're saying there will be a loss. the air bag recall. when you talk about some of the near-term costs, $500. wi million will be costs to deal with that recall of $850,000 vehicl -- 850,000 vehicles. the profit margin will be on the lower end of the current guidance which is 7% to 9% -- i should say 8% to 9%. the fact that it is on the lower end. all of that funneled together has spooked investors. that's why the shares were down. by 6%, 7% late in the day today. clearly a lot of news that people are looking at saying not real comfortable about where ford is in terms of its near-term guidance. >> phil lebeau, thank you for that.
5:16 pm
what's your trade here on ford? for a long time you guys had been more optimistic on ford than gm. >> the trade is on valuation and the trade is they've been getting their margins and holding on to asp prices. stock traded down to 1480. i think the stock looks very interesting here. think we'll get numbers later in the weak where we'll be weaker on the u.s. seen. i think that will be seen as a headwind for ford. i think the stock looks very interesting at these levels. i would not jump in today. >> i think this is a prelude to what we'll see when q3 earnings come out if a few weeks. this is a shoot first, ask questions later. this stock started selling off at 3:00 today. 7.5% for a stock by ford? that's a massive, massive move. i don't think you step in. you see if it holds the prior lows from the earlier in the year. >> we had a twitter question about it and we sort of cautioned folks i think tech
5:17 pm
cl technically, we said be careful here. now it feels like it needs a couple days to shake out to the downside. i'm sort of in the wait-and-see camp despied that it traded close to 85 million shares today. >> share of dreamworks soaring 26% aa midst rumors that it is about to be picked up by softbank. matt harrigan, you've done an analysis in terms of the takeout price. two, $44 a share which is significant premium. one at $67. how likely do you eeither of these scenarios? >> i think in three years we'll see a takeout by a major investor in silicon valley. those multiples were very high in part because it is in
5:18 pm
turnaround mode. secondly, i think that it had a unique appeal to softbank given the asian concentration, the appeal of the characters also for marketing and branding, softbank is in mobile businesses and already have oriental dreamworks venture for the next "kung fu panda." they have an exceptionally long range of franchises. i really have high conviction in their ability to do that. $67 is just ill strative of the fact that i don't think it would sell for less than $50 but i think we'll take major strategic investment around that price. >> dreamworks is a very different sort of property. it's been lumpy and it is a turnaround. while at lion's gate there is sort of a wait-and-see approach after hunger games rolls off, they have a lot of cable productions they have going on and they have a number of other
5:19 pm
franchs as well where they are starting to replicate this "hunger games" model where you buy the successful rights to the trilogy of books. these are two very different properties. why would lgf put itself up for sale? >> i think they are two different properties and i think the time will be very different. lion's gate is certainly thinking that the divergent franchise will grow internationally but also domestically. dreamworks is completely hit driven. it is maddening in the fact that it is not that great a story in the mmt basis. but it fits like a glov with softbank's ambitions and give an asian exposure and give those characters branding on their mobile businesses as well. there aren't a lot of elephants left in savannah, even pygmy elephants as far as content compositions are concerned. >> matt harrigan, we'll leave it
5:20 pm
there. we've had the vice chairman of lion's gate many. many times. >> he actually had lion's gate right at the time. he just got out of it way too early. as a show we stuck by michael burns for a long time. now it is proving to pay dividends here. i think this stock is going to push up to the highest we saw couple years ago, $38. i think forgetting about the fact that it is in play, i think the stock is worth owning here. that's just sort of the cherry on top. they report i think in the next few weeks. >> did you see any activity that would indicate that people believe it is in play? >> no, not necessarily. otherwise we'd see some of that massive paper we tend to see. the thing about disney, is it priced right now to perfection? they've done everything right when you look at core assets. is there anything disney can do to enhance their portfolio? is there something out there for disney to buy. they got plenty of money. >> you're saying lgf is the target of disney. >> i'm not saying anything. i'm just putting that out there.
5:21 pm
>> he's not saying but putting it out there. >> if softbank is willing to pay $16, $17 for dreamworks -- this puts the whole valuation specter under question so the big boys, disney, twx, bigger names i think it really more affirms their current valuation than it says they have to go out and do something or they should be raised that much more. they're priced high. a news alert on super value. courtney reagan has details. >> let's check out shares of super value. after hours down almost 2%. the company saying it is investigating a data breach. this is the second malware attack it's experienced recently. super value saying they have not determined if the intruder stole data in the incident. the company saying that an enhanced protective technology "significantly limited" the risk of data theft. melissa, back to you. >> thanks, courtney reagan. it is amazing what the frequency with which we hear about these beaches. >> i think each one is less affecting on the stocks. home depot is right back at
5:22 pm
all-time highs. i think again have you to be careful of selling these stocks down before you know too much news on this. next, a mass of day of gains for gopro in the books hitting an all-time high as the company unveiled three new cameras. find out what the ceo said about the new additions. plus, bank earnings just around the corner. one of the top ranked analysts on the street weighs in with the two names he says have the biggest up side surprise this quarter.
5:26 pm
cameras today. its lowest priced model at $129. nick woodman was on cnbc earlier today talking up this coming holiday season. >> we're excited because this is the best executed product launch that we've had at the company. we're in past years we were understaffed and this year we're now over 800 employees strong so we're in a better position than ever before for a global launch of our hero product line. >> understaffed and under stocked in past product launches. hopefully if they get that right they can meet the demand. >> the timing of this launch or these new products is fantastic. but remember this is one of the last manias left in the stock market right here. this thing went public a few months ago here. it's got an $11.5 billion market cap. it is an expensive stock. it is not particularly liquid. if you're long this thing, ride the wave. it is going to touch $100. i don't know where it goes from there but this is probably going to be like the sort of web van
5:27 pm
in this market psyche when will we look back in a couple years from now. it is a hardware company and i don't buy the media aspect a lot of people are trying to justify this valuation. >> who thinks dan's nuts? >> for that reason? >> for his gopro analysis. good question. >> i tell you what -- >> because web van and mania were strong allegations. >> them's fighting words. i would say this being a media company that deserves the valuation it gets, absolutely agree. are there gross margin pressures? yes. in the short-term though what you actually have is a situation where a company has much greater revenue growth and a much wider berth from which to cast that. >> in the short term the other thing, in the options world, the hundred strikes in october. 110 strikes in october. people are buying, open interests are getting larger. squeeze whatever you want to call this, but this stock has been moving. in down markets it's been up, up markets it's up even more.
5:28 pm
>> i loved number one. >> the arguments that dan just made -- the same arguments you made $40 ago. $40 ago. >> you're saying i made them $40 ago? >> one could make the same argument. >> i bet i made them. all right? just to be clear. i do believe that this thing is way overpriced and it is not a media company. i'll take dan's hit for him. let's talk mcdonald's now getting a pop on rumors that a large investor, perhaps carl icahn, may have taken a stake in the company. it does sort of set up like an olive gardenesque type of thing. >> this would be a lot for carl -- maybe, who knows. all i do know is, we've talked about when the stock hit $92.50, $93, we talked about all the bad news probably be priced in. yes, comps are lousy. on valuation it is probably the cheapest in the space, a lot cheaper than wendy's and burger
5:29 pm
king. western european comps have been awful. they can only get better from here. at the current valuation i think it made a lot of sense. we did it beyond the trader. remember that? we gave you levels to get in, the levels to get out and the level to double up. we're right at that double up level. i think mcdonald's goes higher. >> weekly options at 2:30 before all this carl icahn and everything else, extremely active. people bought, bought, bought, $30 all t3 30 cents up to 70 cents, by the time they got out, it was trading up to $2. crazy. we give you the trade on two big-cap banks who would see the biggest up side potential this earnings season. with facebook expanding its ad busy, could amazon soon follow suit? one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution.
5:30 pm
guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. (shouting) location. here's the location that matters the most. here. or here. or here. it's wherever this is. to get customers to come here and stay here, you're going to need an app that connects to all your systems. so they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. before the competition does. it's tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. today could be the day. the day we give you hope. relief. a cure. today, we believe every life deserves world-class care.
5:31 pm
as one of the top four hospitals in the nation, over 100,000 people from around the world come to cleveland clinic for care each year. and we're ready for you with a second opinion or a same-day appointment today today today and everyday. call today, for an appointment today. thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. and often even more. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet
5:32 pm
5:33 pm
the ad business, we have an analyst who says amazon is the next. dan nathan has a very special edition of options action for us all. first, the next round of bank earnings just around the corner. which names will give the greatest up side surprise this quarter? rbc's gerard cassidy is here to give us his take. >> thank you. >> it is amazing because when you talk about bank earnings, you have to talk about the spreads and with all the volatility that we've seen in yields right now we're seeing this spread between the 5 and 30-year, the smallest it's been since '09. seems like we are right back where we started the beginning of the quarter. >> that's true, spreads have come in. i think what we're going to see in some these banks it's been a long growth. weekly federal reserve data has been showing decent year over year loan growth, around 6%, 7%. not just commercial, consumer loan growth has finally for the first time in over five years starting to move higher. one of the up side surprises
5:34 pm
could be citigroup. the reason being is their capital markets business like all the capital markets players has been under pressure. i don't think the expectations are very high for any of the capital markets in particular in the citi. >> bank of america on the loan growth? >> bank of america has paid almost $65 billion in penalties over the last five years. all of that has been mostly tied to two companies they bought, merrill lynch and countrywide. the core mank of america franchise is very strong. >> drop those three drivers. i'm long citibank, i'm long bank of america. in terms of the overall profile, is it lifting the regulations, in terms of sales growth and long growth, who do you like bet sfer. >> the strongest area is the loan growth area, that would lean us toward bank of america. that's a stock cheap on book, also cheap on future earnings. the other thing, too, i think the regulators are turning our biggest banks into financial
5:35 pm
utilities. that means a lot of cash back. >> morgan stanley -- well, goldman sachs has had a tremendous run. investment banks finally feel like they're on on solid footing. i'm asking you to pick between the two. they're vastly different companies in 2014. but goal man sax or morgan stanley. >> you are absolutely right, they're vastly different. morgan stanley is moving more to the asset management arena than to the capital markets arena. the way to go this quarter is morgan stanley because of the wealth management business. goldman sachs has already had a very good run. >> how about the regionals? any specific names you see across that space and say this is the right one? >> yep. when we look at regions we look at ones down in the southeast. we all know the southeastern part of the united states is where we have some growth. sun trust and regions are sensitive names meaning when rates finally go up, should they go up, they will again fit from it but they get the loan growth in the meantime. >> citibank. this is just pure valuation but i also agree that the regulatory
5:36 pm
quagmires they've all run will be better for these guys. don't know if they'll be giving money back to shareholders any time soon. don't care. i like their global footprint. >> you still bullish financials? >> i'm with tim. citi and bank, it is difficult to choose between the two. put a gun to my head, i'll go with citi but i own both. >> i'm surprised gold man hasn't caught more flack. this is a big story the thing with the regulators and the fed. dennis kind of referred to it. we are at a certain stage in the cycle here. it is probably getting long in the tooth. to me we could be closer to the next financial crisis than further away from one. i think that situation with the fed is going to be a bigger comp than going forward. just how closely the regulators are actually working with the banks and how much teeth that they have when they really try to get in there. >> based upon the regulators, do you think goldman is in a more precarious position to a crisis?
5:37 pm
could be the next web van. >> no, no. think goldman will always be the farthest one from that in a crisis. think in a pr standpoint goldman also finds themself there with bad pr. they're almost too good and doing what they needed to do. >> that's the point. you haven't even heard about goldman in the past few months. >> with the stock offer just a few percent off multi-year highs -- >> i feel like we should do a trade school. many viewers out there don't remember the internet bubble. time for "pops & drops," big movers of the day. a big pop. >> rumor that sunedison will continue to give back. >> intel.
5:38 pm
everybody's talking about the idea pc was dead. they're just fine right now and they are able to coast along plus the fact you have the kicker of mobile. this is a company doing everything right right now in of intel. they also have security. this will go higher. get through $35. >> all-time highs. can you imagine where mcdonald's would be trading if they didn't spin off cfg? we goof around, chipotle, queue d qdoba. i think it continues to go higher. >> these guys make the accel accelerometer. they see 50% to 100% of this apple business going away. the stock has had massive run in anticipation of this. the stock is down 25%.
5:39 pm
i think it was at highs when the phone was at least launched. you probably have a couple more bucks to the downside. it is pretty decent technology so wait for it to get washed out. >> i got a drop for fans gone wild when a frenzied fan ran on to the field during saturday's ohio state game, ohio state conditioning coach anthony schlegel quickly slammed the fan to the ground. a former buckeye linebacker, schlegel received a roar of approval from more than 100,000 fans. >> schlegel was an incredible linebacker at ohio state, by the way. i know him well. an unreal play there. i tell you what, fans are going to start figuring out not to go on the field at ohio state. >> can you imagine running out at a giant game and have najarian running after you. >> nick curtis did a similar thing back in the day. clothes-lined a dude. it was fantastic zp. >> they don't belong out there.
5:40 pm
>> "market flash" on dreamworks. >> let's give a big o-h to anthony schlegel. dreamworks animation down more than 4% after hours -- 5% rather. the downside move following a dow jones report softbank discussions to acquire dreamworks have cooled. reminder this morning david faber said on cnbc that there wasn't much going on in those reported talks. dreamworks shares had spiked more than 25% in trading today. >> i feel like this is a cautionary tale. why investing on the heels of just a rumor could actually burn you. >> i think dreamworks as a stock still makes sense. lion's gate does as well. i think the valuations and their business suggest these are stocks you want to own regardless. coming up next, facebook unveil is a brand-new ad platform allowing other websites to tap into its trove of user data. another internet giant could soon take ad dollars away. alibaba officially opens
5:44 pm
which will deliver targeted ads outside of facebook's website. one analyst says the real ad giant to watch for is amazon. chad bartly says amazon's ad plans could be far superior to those of facebook and google and pay off huge for investors. chad, great to have you with us. the numbers if the report are staggering i think. you say it is a potential juggernaut of $1 billion run rate and could actually add one. hoint opera -- one point operating margin. is amazon serious about this? >> we think so. the industry contacts we've talked to in the last few months have indicated that they are the sleeping giant. they are the juggernaut in the industry. they're sitting on very valuable consumer data in terms of how they shop, what they look for and most importantly, what they buy on amazon. i think that for a lot of advertisers and marketers, that transaction data can be very, very valuable for targeted advertising. from google does not have that
5:45 pm
sort of data? i'm trying to understand why you think amazon's data is that much more superior and therefore a bigger draw for advertisers. >> yeah. so in some instances for certain marketers, certain advertisers, that actual transaction data could be very valuable. that's not to say that google doesn't have valuable data. they certainly do. but with the transaction data, the purchase data that amazon has, that's something that google doesn't have. i think that's partly why we're seeing google look at e-commerce and look at shopping and look at payments. they clearly want to get into the e-commerce game. they clearly want to get into the payments game and get some of that incremental data as well. >> the more players that enter into this area in terms of advertising, the more there could be a price war. what happens in terms of the commoditization of this? >> great question. definitely a concern particularly with amazon when they focus on an individual, they're very aggressive with their investment. they're very aggressive with their pricing. we could see some pressure on display advertising over time.
5:46 pm
>> would this make you more bullish, amazon, if they turn up the heat on advertising? i'm only asking this because they can do that and they can get this boost, at the same time they can then blow it on drones or anything else that they feel like blowing it on. >> absolutely. so we are excited. we think it is a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity for them. even four years out. that's a single percent of revenue, obviously not that big. however, it is very high operating margin. so roughly 40% potentially. we think that they'll clearly invest the majority of those incremental profit dollars into other opportunities but we do think that some can flow through to the bottom line. that's been a big issue, a big concern for amazon this year is their profitability, the decline in the margin. we think amazon can go a long way in helping the longer term profitability. chad bartley, thank you for joining us. does this make you more bullish? >> no. amazon has not traded well at all now quite some time. to me it feels like it wants to
5:47 pm
push down to the 285 level. it does not interest me at these levels. you buy it on a breakout or you buy it if it holds 285. >> let me guess, you do not like amazon. >> you noah? you nailed it. that question, when am done moved into cloud services, they killed prices. when they go anywhere -- you know what's interesting? he had a great response. those are 40% operating margins. if they could actually take that and pass it through to investors, that would be the sort of thing with a stock that's acted so poorly for so long could maybe see a little bit of resurgence. >> would they or are they going to spend it on whatever? >> i think you addressed that very clearly. >> i just think you have to look at how the stock is trading. the market is telling you what they need from the company and they're not getting it. protect yourself at 300. coming up next, options traders finally getting a chance to get in on the alibaba action.
5:48 pm
5:51 pm
alibaba options starting trading day. dan nathan, what did the activity look like? >> it was actually pretty interesting. this is again the largest ipo the world has ever seen, so all of a sudden now a week after the ipo, you have a $220 billion market cap company where options are trading. a lot of these new ipos we've seen in technology over the last year are small. there were $10 million market caps after they've already appreciated. this was crazy. trade 1d 10,000 options. i think it was 1.2 calls to every put. generally almost in line but there was really trades. the two most active options were out in november. the 85 puts and the 95 calls. there was one trade in particular that caught my eye where one, i suspect, a long holder of alibaba thinks that this stock is going to be range bound over the next week -- next six weeks shortly after the options were listed, somebody
5:52 pm
sold 3,000 of the november 85 puts and 3,000 of the november 95 calls. they received $7.30 for that. if the stock is between $77.70 and $102.30, that trade is going to take in that $7.0. this is a yield enhancement trade against that long stock position. assuming volatility comes in, meaning they benefit from options prices coming in but also the stock going sideways. there's not a lot of history on this chart, but it's traded at 14% range from the opening print after the ipo. you see a lot of sideways action. think that's what this trader is thinking. also here's facebook options since it went public in may of 2012. really pricing has gone down. this is when the stock spiked and doubled in a month or so. what you would expect out of a 20 $200 million market cap
5:53 pm
company -- >> interesting you mention the november expiration. that would also include singles day which was huge. >> it was two times what black friday was. if you want to look at a company that has 87% of the mobile volume, 80% of the overall internet sales market, 80% of mobile, that's growing. 32 times current but 25 times next year's numbers. i think you can own this one. it is certainly a value play in 2015. >> were you trading the baba options? >> i was. we talked about volumes on friday. it is different than facebook. 365,000 contracts first day. that stock got hammered. but in this very small little band where it's been trading, which is -- we talk about the implied volatility, 40 to 45, they started selling it as soon as they could, they being those shareholders because they did exactly what dan's talking about. they think it is going to stay range bound. >> catch more options action at 5:30 every friday.
5:54 pm
protests in hong kong weighing on global markets today. let's send it over to pauline chu from hong kong. >> reporter: things are pretty much calmer overnight but as you can see from the video here, there are still tens of thousands of people, mainly young people and university students near central, the financial area of hong kong. if you look at where they are, they are in a major thoroughfare that's actually off an off-ramp of a highway. so they have shut down the transportation route to this main area of hong kong. this has had a financial impact. several banks have closed their branches telling their employees to work from home. citibank says 95% of our retail banking transactions in hong kong are outside of a branch so they've asked some of their
5:55 pm
employees to do work from their ipads and also from home as well. earnings a hong kong is a huge shopping mecca. the stores are open late at night. i was taking a walk at night in hong kong. they were shut altogether. they're normally open until 10:00 or 11:00 at night. these protesters probably won't go away any time soon because tomorrow is a national holiday and a long weekend. >> she raises a good point in terms of the retail sales. we won't see it for august but for the next month i'm sure we'll see and hear about it. >> right now if this is a tree-day protest, talking .2% of gdp? this is not significant. for a market trading around 14 times. ewh is an etf. it actually overshot the underlying market today. if you think this is an overreaction, that's one way to play it. i don't think right now this is
5:56 pm
that big a deal. the reason you always watch this. to me i trade china as much as their ability to control social policy as i do on their macro. this is obviously about social policy. >> this is not live. coming up on "mad money" -- the cloud space has been getting slammed but tonight cramer's got a play that could capitalize on modernizing the more than $1 trillion marketing industry. marketo's ceo is coming up. we come right back. stay tuned. [bell rings] ♪ time and sales data. split-second stats. ♪ its so close to the options floor,
5:57 pm
you'll bust your brain-box. all on thinkorswim, from td ameritrade. ♪ who's going to do it? who's going to make it happen? discover a new energy source. turn ocean waves into power. design cars that capture their emissions. build bridges that fix themselves. get more clean water to everyone. who's going to take the leap? who's going to write the code? who's going to do it? engineers. that's who. that's what i want to do. be an engineer. ♪
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
time for the final trade. around the horn. tim. >> happy wedding anniversary, my incredible wife. >> aw! >> thank her. >> icici is a bank i think is overdone. >> i don't have a stock. my brother jon, happy birthday, brother man. >> i'll be bearish for you. pepsi. buying back too much stock. no growth there. i'm long puts in january. >> happy anniversary. happy birthday, doc.
6:00 pm
lion's gate. where there's smoke, there's fire. plus you own it anyway because it held. >> "catching fire." >> i also have a happy birthday also to my mom and my brother. happy birthday. we're back my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm trying to save you money. my job not just to entertain but to teach. call or tweet me @jimcramer. it's totally annoying. the newfound
83 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on