and the unemployment reports, at 8:30 eastern time. we'll tell you what the numbers mean and your money, it's jobs friday, october 3rd, 2014. "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman. joe is off this week. the stakes are high for this morning's jobs report. stocks are on pace for the worst week in about two months. the s&p eking out the tiniest gains yesterday that saved the index from its first fourth days of losing streak for the year. barely eking it out, husband than 0.01 of a point. forecasters say the economy added about 215,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady. we've been watching futures ahead of that report this morning. you'll see at this point there is a bit of a bousback over the

last couple of days. s&p futures up about just over 8 points. that jobs report will be indicative of how we made the move to the day. we have alan greenspan joining us this morning. first, steve has this morning's other big stories. >> thanks, becky. an american cameraman working for nnz news in liberia has tested positive for ebola. he was one of three cameramen working with nbc's chief correspondent dr. nancy schneiderman. he's been working in liberia for the past three years. nbc is sending a charter plane for schneiderman's entire crew. schneiderman on nbc last night. >> an abundance of caution. we have self-quarantining ourselves, even going beyond the cdc guidelines. we recognize that there is a big

story back home. >> meantime in texas, the cdc contacting dozens of people. meg turrell joining us from dallas with the latest this morning. good morning, meg. >> good morning, steve. that nbc news cameraman, our colleague was the fifth american affected with ebola and is back here in the united states for treatment. where they were in liberia and west africa and why dr. nancy schneiderman were covering their story, it is the hardest hit country in west africa accounting for more than half of the cases and more than half of the total deaths. right now, that count stands at about 7,000 cases in west cav ka. coming here to dallas where the first u.s. case with bowlen, here in critical but serious

condition. making sure this spread does not continue. they're casting a wide net of about a hundred potential contacts the patient may have come into contact with saying they've identified just a handful who may have had serious, closer contact. they're monitoring all of those. four close family members have been ordered to stay in their home not receiving any guests sense october 19th to make sure they're not spreading anything they may have gotten. of course, they are not showing any symptoms yet. the risk only becomes zero once there is no risk in west africa. and just getting a few more details overnight about why there was that mix up and the patient was initially released before coming back two days later. they say there was a problem with the electronic health records. they took the information that he had been in west africa, that

information didn't show up when they were considering how to treat this patient. so he was released and came back on sunday. >> the thing that jumps out to me is that didn't that send up red flags, wasn't that the type of thing that maybe you note it in the chart, but you yell across the room, hey, dock, listen to this? this is something we've been on the lookout for and maybe you should pay attention to this? >> ya he. there's a lot of questions about why that didn't set off more flags, dr. frieden calling this a teachable moment, saying travel history needs to be emphasized. a teachable moment, definitely. more than six months after an outbreak of ebola, the health officials have displayed an uneven response. the story this morning is that they didn't go on to sanitize

the apartment. they entered it without protection on wednesday night. what kind of confidence should we have here, the one sample of response we have has not been all that great. >> we're hearing reports from the local and state officials here. they were telling us about the official reports it hasn't been cleaned. they say they sent a cleaning crew in, but they did have some trouble finding a cleaning crew who would go in and clean up the apartment. >> and then the kwan teened the four family members to that same apartment. the idea that they hadn't cleaned it, they're keeping them in that apartment, that's the kind of thing that prevents people from coming forward saying, yes, we have been exposed. >> they're emphasizing that they wouldn't do that quarantine for most people in that situation. but that protocol or order was tightened from what it had

initially been. that raised some red flags, as well, what was the family doing? so the hope is that this was a wake-up call to hospitals and cities around the country as we nationwide see more cases coming from west africa. >> this idea of finding a cleaning crew, that the municipality could not find something or accompanied to go in and go in and do it, how hard is that going to be in other cities as we get to that point. how expensive is it? i assume whoever is doing this is charging a king's ransom to do it. >> we did learn yesterday that they're, woulding with a company that has done this before with hiv aids. they're used to cleaning up sensitive material. that makes it more difficult in this case. medical crews do clean up.

sensitive material. they should be able to figure out how to do this. >> not all hospitals have appropriate measures to deal with that. that's something we're learning about, as well. the government working on that, trying to make sure hospitals are equipped to do that. >> i'll throw this out to the table and, meg, i don't expect an actual answer on this, but it seems to me that there are two responses to something like this. one is an economic response where you are trying to limit the economic damage that comes along with any sort of outbreak. and it seems to me we've done a fairly good job of reassuring people things are fine, go about your business, things are normal. we've made sure that the flights are still running. we are trying to minimize the economic risk but we vice president done the best medical response for this and sometimes those two responses would conflict with each other.

>> there are a lot of questions about whether the borders should be closed. he emphasized by isolating those countries, not flying in and out, aid workers can't -- if they go, they can't get home. so by isolating those countries, that would, in fact, do the opposite of containing it. it could rage worse there because treatment needs to be improved over there. until it's contained there, it cannot be contained in the rest of the world. >> becky, i did have one thought which is what did the guy at passport control ask this individual? i think he lied about filling out this form. that's one thing. >> he lied about filling out the form in liberia. >> are we not asking a guy who was in liberia, we can see it in his passport, apparently there was a stamp in it, where were you? what were you doing? it's very simple. >> he didn't have a you the, but this gentleman had four or five days previous to this.

the gentleman in dallas, fourer on five days before that, he had been transferring a patient. >> he was carrying her body. she died shortly after that. >> i've not heard anybody questioning the process. >> what is the process once you land. >> you get here, do they ask you any questions here, it's not -- >> i'm amazed that this slths bit unrelated. it seems like the people who represent no threat get the extra scrutiny. and i'm talking about the white house where i have to do a whole shakedown to get into the white house every time i go there and is a guy jumps over the fence. i come into passport control, i get the third degree and this guy was in liberia and he walks in. and i love the way they shake down senior citizens. not that senior citizens can't represent a threat. they can. they're all healthy, they're great. >> you're talking about profiling.

>> arguing for a little bit of common freaking sense. can i say that? >> what i will say is meg is right, you need to have people getting in and out of these countries. but as steve was saying, some common sense on the return i think makes sense too. i think what dr. nancy schneiderman and her team are doing is the is the right thing. we wish them all thee'll check later this morning, too. >> let's tell you about corporate news. this is not good news. it hits close to home because it affected me, too. jpmorgan warns 76 million how households and 7 million small businesses may have had personal data exposed in the cyber he attacks. they have no evidence that

personality data was released in the attack. however, as a customer of jp -- do you have a chase card? >> chase? yeah. >> they have my name, they have my address, they have my phone number and i'm not sure whether they have my e-mail address or not. but i think enough of that could -- maybe not in the context of the chase, but if you took that information and went to other companies and places where i might do things online or whatever, you could figure out. you could get passwords reset. i don't know. i don't know if that's enough y eoma ppl enoce t,poy oe oer ser ta ofhe tse henactaiths v e

fuca yoount mor e,evreoio t annghife? dnt asngoiasuyohe saqu on k inreeorar cnhai . no regdoem at itp un o cnd message on your phone so you have to put your password in. you get your password, you put the text message in. this computer is already in for my e-mail. >> if i want to hack anything with you, i just go to that -- >> this computer works and it only works for 30 days. but if i were to go to a computer that's not my regular computer, i always have to have it sent and that's a great way to --

>> that's a good idea. >> that makes it -- i don't know, but it's much harder to hack because you need the actual code and it's a different code every time. >> what about the companies, though? what are we learning about how serious they're taking sth this? >> look, jpmorgan and jp diamond lays out every year where he says this is a massive initiative for this, talks about the amount of money they spend on it. >> but you say that and yet is this the second thing we've heard from nation states? >> there are nation states working against the banks, the big financial institutions trying to hack into them every day. it's the banks and the unfortunate position of them having to battle nation states rather than the united states protecting them. >> so you are referring to more government? >> and by the way, i think the government is also trying to step up and make cyber security a much bigger point of import. i think they're working on that. i think they're spending money on that. >> here is a risk -- reducing

your risk question. would you put money in multiple checking accounts? most people have one checking accounts at one bank. would you put money and multiple -- >> no. >> after the financial crisis, i bought life insurance through three different companies. >> to make sure that the one -- >> because i figured if one went down, then i'd still have the two others. >> it wasn't because of the cyber hacking, but i do have multiple accounts. you know what it was? at one point, they have offering better interest rates. >> it's all i can do to find my debit card. >> if you find one on the table, it's steve's. >> we will be getting a key read on the economy with when we get the jobs reports this morning. warren buffett weighed in yesterday on economic growth. >> it's really amazing to me since the third quarter of 2009, looking at our businesses,

they've improved at a rather constant pace. now, we heard talk about double dips, we heard talks earlier. they've never decelerated much. they've never accelerated much. now, autos are doing way better than average. housing is doing worse than i would have anticipated. if you look at the overall, it's been remarkably consistent. >> joining us now with more on the economy, today's jobs number and recent volatility in the markets, michelle gerard, chief u.s. economist at rbs. also bob doll, chief u.s. equity strategist at uvene asset management. welcome to both of you. bob, you heard what warren buffett had to say about that. just his idea of a constant and steady growth. would you agree with that? >> constant and steady if he would have added at a snail's pace, i think i would have agreed. >> i think he did add that later and i think we may have cut that off. >> so we've been growing until recently about 2% real as you

know with lots of bumps along the way. normal for the economy. but the question is are we upshifting from 2ish to 3ish? my guess is probably, but it's not going to be smooth. >> michelle, what do you think? >> i will say that has been one of the characteristics of this expansion particularly in the last three years is how remarkably kind of steady around 2% plus or minus. even the sail numbers, to talk about today's jobs report. i know from month to month we get volatility. we grew 180,000 in 2012. like 19 is 0,000 plus in 2013 per month. not far off of that, a little over 200,000 in -- the pace has been so steady, the good news is we've haven't shown the desill ragz. the bad news is we've never been able to get the upward momentum.

now it's late in the expansion to think we're going to accelerate markedly from the current trend. >> bob, all of these drops we've seen in the markets recently, big declines, a lot of volatility, that has a lot of people nervous. i've seen you in action, i know what you do on commercial breaks where you go through and figure out how much money you want to allocate and which stocks you want to put it in. how much more of that have you been doing as these dips come in or have you felt these dips were warranted? >> the dips have been viable. now this is the fourth. like the one in january, this feels heavier. i think out of the august sell-off, we never really repaired the divergences, the advance, the side lines, small stooks. this may take more to store out, the season of let's say a little bit more weakness post the election. the seasons would say we're coming back and i think assuming the u.s. economy is okay, which

we've been talking about probably is, will be oxygen. this will be another viable depp dip, but maybe not quite yet. >> so i think there's more to come with this, maybe a little more blood letting? >> i think there's a lot least more sloppiness, no sidewise action. the biggest surprise to me would be we turn up and go make a new high right away. i think we have to consolidate, maybe correct some morning. >> how far? who knows. but i think there's more time before we turn around and go back up. >> didn't you just make an argument for more fed stimul ew less? the economy is consistently performing below, 2% growth with the official of 2.5%, the book says -- the -- you're shaking your head. >> no. >> am i wrong about the textbook? >> no. here is the thing.

>> i'm right about the textbook, though. >> we're not talking about policy shift on the accommodative side, that if we're only growing at a subpar rate maybe we should not be, woulding against it, we should be below neutral. but should we be at zero? should we be sitting at crisis level rates when the economy has been growing 2% for the last, you know, three to four years. there may be less slack. is there enough slack to justify sitting at zero when you're a half to 0.75% points away from unemployment. >> i have three words for you and they're not happy birthday. the fed president has been out there arguing this point that there's not inflation.

>> but more money isn't going to solve this problem. >> and the fed can actually come up with. >> that's a legitimate argument. >> that's the point. >> the textbook says -- >> and i'll tell you what the fed is thinking. the fed is thinking the risk/reward here, if we move for what's preemptive, when we think unemployment should be better and stronger, if we hike just because the textbook that i would argue would say that it's time to be moving to a more neutral stance and you're wrong and things fall apart examine things are worse, then that is a big problem. >> the fear if they start going, that they do not want to have to go back, they don't want to have to retrace the steps from the exit. >> like what the ecb ended up

doing. >> i think that's right. if you listened to legarde yesterday gave a fascinating speech, it's the subtext, hey, the countries that did qe, the countries that increased the size of their balance sheets, they're the ones doing better. >> michelle, thanks so much for coming in. bob, it's great to see you. >> thank you. when we come back this morning, protesters deadline for hong kong's leader to step down has pagsed. there are signs of a thought between the government and protest leaders. we'll get a life update from hong kong right after this. and the nfl draft finding a new home. yesterday will be the first time that new york city will impose. we'll tell you which city won the top pick right after this.

the first pacific the nl draft location has selected chicago. the windy city will hold the draft in 50 years scheduling conference at radio city music hall forced the nfl to look -- >> they didn't figure out the date on that? >> you would think they would know. the theater of roseville university will host the three-day event starting on april 30th of next career. >> good for chicago. >> i'm amazed over the last

several years how this has become an event. now it's a major television movie event. >> kevin costner playing that part. hundreds of casino workers at flagship macau casino walked off the job today demanding better wages and benefits. good morning to you. can you hear us, susan? a little delay. we will try her in just a little bit. >> it does sound like they are a little closer. >> and it felt like the protests weren't -- we had this build up this week as if announced

doesn't seem to be -- >> as many in the ranks as they had. >> yeah. >> a tipping over point. >> but it did make you think, didn't it, about what's going on in china, political oppression there and what happens if there's an issue like that. you start to spin that out and it gets to be very difficult or how does the u.s. respond to china like it did with russia with sanctions? >> i think that's a long way away. >> but that's what i started thinking about this week. >> like what we do with ebola, too, right? we thin et out. >> do you think it's crazy to think what if china were to clamp down on protesters there? >> no. but the stakes are high and i think they realize the world is watching. >> and it's complicated because china worries desperately about this going to the mainland. that's the biggest fear of the leadership there. >> when we come back, signs of

weakness in europe. can the united states flourish as europe falters? ra global cut check right after this. plus, gas price falling below $3 a gallon for much of the country. how lows will they go? we're going to talk crude rates. right now as we head to break, take a look at yesterday's winners and losers. ♪ mr. daniels. mr. daniels. look at this. what's this? clicks are off the charts. yeah. yoshi, we're back. yes, sir! ♪ more shipping! more shipping! ♪ [ beeping ] ♪

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. joe kernen has the week off playing golf. >> i have seen the pictures. >> hanging out with some actors over the last couple of days, too. >> and some golfers. good news for codova customers this morning. the mexican fast casual chain announcing many of its popular extras will now be free. in the past, ordering extra guacamole cost you more than a dollar. but that's changing effective next week. vegetables and chili barbecue sauce. the move will likely be watched closely with competitive restaurants where many places charge for individual food items.

oh, that's owned by jack in the box? i did not realize it. but i thought avocados -- wasn't there a big spike in the cost of avoca avocados? i would think how can they afford to do this? unless it is watered down guacamole. >> these are the questions we ponder. in corporate news, facebook -- >> the burrito thing and if joe were here. he'll be back on monday. >> facebook planning its first steps into the health care of the company exploring online support communities that would pull users supporting different elements. apple and google had been moving into the health care area, becky. what are you looking at? >> taking a look, i was check ago couple of things online. dow futures up by about 76

points above fair value. s&p futures up by 9.5. this came after the s&p narrowly avoided the fourth day of losses. i mean by a percentage of a point. check out was been happening with the european markets today. in france, the cac is up by about 0.6%. if you look overseas, what happens overnight, a little stabilization there. a big decline for the nikkei. it was up by about 46 points. >> yesterday casting a -- over european markets today. >> the economy is still fundamentally weak. i've said many times our recovery was weak, fragile, uneven and still is. . >> more on the outlook from europe. we're joined by a chief international correspondent michelle caruso cabrera. >> europe first, you brawl it

up. draghi is the immediate short-term story. he did talk about a more expansive version of quantitative easing. europe is very dick and it's getting sicker. bottom line, compared to the drama of 2011, the european economy is in worse shape now than it was back then. >> why does it seem like the headline is coming. why does it seem we're not paying as much attention? >> in summer of 2007, we are staring into the abyss and concerned about whether the ur roadway was going to fall apart. but now they've solved those issues by tapering over the overnight borrowing issues with all of the banks. the bottom line is, back then the trouble was in the periphery and now today the trouble was in the core, france and germany. and the department is only whether who is worse, is it

italy or france, whether it's debt to gdp, etcetera, etcetera. here is the one-week performance. if we were going to show you a one-month, we would show you the a lot of them are getting into full correction territory. it's becoming obvious that europe has fiked a lot of his problems. you can see this pop up here in the last couple of days. compared to the one-year, it's still extremely low. but the bottom line question is, for now for nearly a year, all of these yields have been trading on the traditional frost, what's inflation going to be, what's grog going to be, how bad is growth going to be? but at some point, investors start to think, wow, maybe i won't get paid back, yields start to spike and then we go into all the -- the question is

could there still be a crisis in europe? everybody tells me yes. >> i disagree a little bit wsh michelle. >> monetary policy is different today. >> we have a cubical close together, we have a running conversation on this. i think one of the -- >> that's fine. better than some others. >> one of the accomplishments of draghi, in fact, an unmitigated accomplishment of draghi is the whatever it takes comment. i think they've taken default risk off the table off the debt. >> selling fixed income instruments on the periphery or on the core -- >> some hedge funds are short french debt, which has been a painful trade for the last year, right? >> i think it makes some sense. i would thinkly point out that one of the things economists talk about, without knowing the answer, one balance sheet has shrunk by several million --

several trillion. another has risen. and the growth outcomes are very different. the united states versus europe. now they're on different trajectories. legarde, in my opinion, yesterday, urging europe to do something on the fiscal side. on the infrastructure side and on the reform side. >> because draghi all this time and none of those changes were made. >> exactly. you have populations that refuse to change. one example, france. they protest when they wanted to make some them pay for parking at hospitals. not to make them do copays, not to increase the costs, but just to park at hospitals. they will not accept major, major changes. >> he didn't hear that the ecb has a plan to inflation the balance sheet. and that, i think, is what spooked the markets. the markets want to see some sense of movement towards qe or some sense of the asset backed

security or that the tltro would inflate the balance sheet. i didn't hear that yesterday. >> but still you would agree that draghi can't fix an economy that is fundamentally broken, that is still incredibly rigid where the greek government still sides what time their drug stores can be open and on what corner they can still be. >> i think they have to get to the oil thing. >> crude oil prices getting crushed this week. wti dropping to its lowest level in two years. crude plunging over 12% to around $105 a barrel to where it sits right now. that's a huge drop.

90 bucks. how far will oil fall? joining us now, dick erstan. give us a number, please. >> i think i'd rather talk about hong kong. can i do that instead? there's a lot of pressure on oil. most of it, i think, has been caused by the strength of the dollar. i think most appear lists would agree that the strength of the dollar has been the major driver of oil prices down. so i ask every analyst that i talk to who has any interest in currencies whatsoever, if they take a look at currencies, take any one you like and ask them if they would like to be light and ask them if they want to be long the dollar right now. i don't think anyone wants to be long the dollar. if you don't want to be long the dollar, then you don't want to be short oil. >> i would agree with you on the point that i think it's mostly the dollar, but it's also the world economy is concerned about it. plus production has been stronger, particularly from the u.s.

>> the u.s. is definitely overrun with the production target that most people had for them. they're pumping close to 9 million barrels a day. there are unbelievable threats of future production out there that, really, the oil market has koven to ignore right now. russian sanctions will stop production in the arctic. that was a big plus for future production. isis is making inroads in iraq. the iranians clearly don't want a nuclear deal. does that mean sanctions can get into place here? >> it's clear the dax, ebola when it goes from liberia to nigeria, i'm seeing the crawl. exxon doesn't want any workers anywhere near -- what will shell do with niger gentleman? >> a big issue. >> there's three million barrels a day there.

for the short-term, i think year going to be right. this is almost a momentum trade that you can't help but get behind. analysts talk about a price war from the saudis. they're all getting crazed about what's going on in the oil market and they all want to be short. for me as a trader, that's great. >> but that's a decisive thing in my opinion when we broke under $90 a barrel. when the saudis indicated they were more interested in market share than in price. that's a swing. i know covering -- >> this is an analysis of a lot of analysts. i think they're jumping the gun on this. they're lowering prices. they have a price they have to set. if they don't follow the market, they lose clients. but what's been misrepresented is they haven't cut production with that. they have. >> we got one good story around here which is low oil prices and you're ruining that. >> no. >> everything else is terrible. we had good story and you cooperate let it go.

>> i'll give you the silver lining. even though oil may steady itself and rally at some point, gasoline will stay copy. >> thank you. good, thank you very much. >> you got it. coming up, is that me or you? >> i think it's me, but it could be you. >> it's a guy you know. ben bernanke. coming up, ben bernanke getting big laughs at an investment conference. so this punch line wasn't actually a joke and warren buffett all about planes, trains and automobiles after striking a major deal to buy the nation's largest private dealership. what does the oracle see at the car lot? that's next right here on squawk.

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good morning. >> we're talking trains, planes and automobiles. warren buffett announced eeg buying the nation's largest privately held car dealership chain. the large ft privately held one, auto nation. listen to what warren buffett has to say. >> cars aren't going like that. every dealership is going to sell more cars on average. the pattern has changed, but the

fundamental demand for cars has not gone down. the average dealership will do a lot more business now than it did 30 or 40 years ago in terms of units. >> is buffett making a smart move? that's the question. it's hard to say buffett is not making a strong move. brian covers the autoship stockes and our own auto reporter, phil lebeau. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> you look at that deal, what do you think? >> i think mr. buffett wins two ways. i think the auto dealers are a tremendous business, tremendous cash flow againive. there's a reason why so many sports teams owners have been auto dealers in their -- for their day jobs. these are great businesses, family run businesses that have been 20, 30, 40 years.

>> it's about 8 billion in revenue. revenue is that a rule of item is a dollar buys between $4 and $5 in sales. roughly speaking, $2 billion for this and that compares favorably with auto nation, the neigh's largest auto dealership. same thing with penske. so if i had to guess, warren showed up -- >> you don't think he gets a discount for being warren? >> i think he will. the second way he prevents is the group sold about 130,000 new cars last year. if you take an average loan, 880% ltre, all of those purchases were financed. now you get to utilize that berk share hathway balance sheet, you're looking at a pool of about $130 million in potential loans that he -- or potential earnings from those loans that

he could lend to potential buyers. >> phil, how hard or easy is it to roll up big swaths in the industry? >> within the auto dealer group? i mean, how quickly could he pick up other ones? >> right. >> it's hard to say. you have about 17,000 dealerships out there. and the large chains only control about 9%, 10%. so you've got a good chunk of those that are part of a big chain. they're mom and pop operations. they might be a family that has had one for 40 years and maybe they've got one in another city 40 miles away and that's it. so the question is, how much time do you want to spend going through and saying, which are the best ones to pick off and how do we choose which ones we're going to buy out? >> this may be obviously, but you can roll them up, but does it make any sense to roll them up? they're economies of scale. phil, do you want to answer that

question? >> i can and brian can, too. there are economies of scale, but you want to be selective in terms of what markets. not all dealership are created the same. of the 17,000, there are some real dogs. you don't want tothem. certain markets are going to be more advantageous than others. and certain areas within sales you want to be in. you want to be a premium luxury auto dealer, that's where the big margins are. >> real quick because we've got to go, what is the chance the market get disrupted completely by the likes of companies like tesla and others and other car manufacturers who decide they want to do what tesla's doing? >> no. no. i think it's really low, andrew. here's why. people said this to me yesterday. why doesn't ford go out there and sell cars directly? those franchise laws are specifically written so that automakers who already have dealers cannot go out and start selling. that's the difference. tesla does not already have dealers which is why it can say it's not violating any laws.

>> it's a longer conversation. phil, thank you. brian, thank you. appreciate it very much. >> thank you. now i got to read this. >> this is technically your turn. >> all right. coming up, bernanke shares a financial problem with economists who mistook it for a punchline. but it's not. that story next. and speaking of former fed chairs, alan greenspan making a "squawk" appearance this morning. we'll talk coming up at 7:30 a.m. eastern. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

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welcome back. this next story sounds like a joke at an investment conference. it was, but apparently it's also true. even ben bernanke can't get a loan. he told mark zandi he tried to refinance his mortgage and was unsuccessful. he said he wasn't making it up. he said i think it's possible the lenders may have gone a little bit too far on mortgage credit conditions. becky is losing it. >> the guy's in between jobs. the guy's in between jobs. what does he write down? >> his story makes no sense to me. >> what bank was the one that turned him down? >> i don't know. but why was he even going for a mortgage? the guy's making 250 k a speech.

it had to have been 30% or 40% down. >> he knows it's smart to refinance because rates are never going to be -- >> he probably has to say he doesn't have a consistent income. >> that's probably why he got dinged. >> we don't know. >> they didn't recognize the name? coming up, jobs and the economy. the ceo of caterpillar will talk about how the ebola virus has affected production in africa. "squawk box" returns in a moment. we needed 30 new hires for our call center.

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an american in liberia contracts ebola.

a freelancer working for nbc tests positive for the virus. it's jobs friday. get ready for the number with the maestro alan greenspan. plus the pulse of manufacturing from the ceo of caterpillar. >> we're talking trains, planes, and automobiles. >> welcome to america. may i help you? >> yes. >> airlines have had a rough week. we'll tell you why the sector's troubles aren't over yet. >> nothing grinds my gears worse than some chowder head who doesn't know when to keep his big trap shut. >> the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" on

cnbc. casting is underway for a business leader. but he won't be played by leonardo dicaprio. why he's out of the running later on. >> that's a good tease because i want to know the answer. it's jobs day. let's talk employment expectations. the economy likely adding 215,000 jobs in september. holding steady at 6.1%. the futures were a little stronger. getting strength this morning. dow jones up 72 points. s&p open up around 9 and nasdaq around 16. the united states first ebola patient is being treated at a dallas hospital today. and the contradiction dc is tracking dozens of people who had contact with him. a cameraman for nbc news has tested positive for ebola in liberia.

meg? looks like meg, we're having some technical problems with that. this story is one we've been tracking closely. yesterday at about this time we learned that this patient in dallas had about 80 people he'd come into contact with. the number was revised to about a hundred. it's not close contact, but they think it was a small handful of people he may have had close contact with. but they are doing their best to track down where he's been in contact with people. also there's a story in today's dallas morning news that tracks what's been happening at the apartment complex where he was living over that time. it is a situation where chaos is raining. >> they didn't get in there for several days. >> they couldn't find a company who was willing to go in and do the work. which i think is going to be a -- if we have this in other cities, it's going to be challenging, i'd imagine. >> is this a federal failing, state failing, local failing? where is the blame on this? >> this is a situation that

shows how difficult it is to cope with something like this when it hits your shores. we're going to have steps and miscues. it does raise questions about the readiness. but my idea is we will learn more. meg terrell is on the ground in dallas. what can you tell us about the situation right now? >> right here in dallas there is a patient thomas duncan being treated. the first and only u.s. case of ebola that's been confirmed. his contacts are being monitored. only a handful of close contacts and his family's been ordered to stay in the house. that's four family members ordered to stay in the house until october 19th. there has been some question of whether he'll receive experimental treatment at the hospital. telling us that is being discussed with the hospital, with the patient, with had his family. and that will be provided if they choose. but there are questions about the supply of these drugs. and they're all experimental. of course zmapp which has been used in about seven people, the supply is expended.

but the u.s. is seeking ways to ramp that up. tekmira and biocryst. speaking to a doctor who looked a lot another ebola, he said if this gets worse in kes africa, we'll need a drug to keep it from getting into pandemic proportions. but i've also talked to columbia university who thinks that isolation and treatment and then vaccines should be the priority here for containing this. vaccines are being worked on at glaxo smith klein. the patient is in serious condition. we're expecting an update later today in the news briefing. >> thank you very much. meg tir rel will bring us updates as we know more.

the national manufacturers association is kicking off its third annual manufacturing day today. president obama will be at the millennium steel plant in indiana. joining us right now first on cnbc is doug oberhelm. and joining us is jay timmons. welcome to both of you. it's great to see you. >> great to see you and good morning. we are celebrating today around the country and certainly here in washington with the nam board meeting. >> so the national manufacturers day. this is a day where what happens? you're trying to say these are great jobs. jay? >> opening their doors all over their countries. opening their doors to students and young people to show them all the possibilities that exist in manufacturing.

there are still 600,000 jobs in manufacturing in this country that are open. we need people with the right skills to fill those jobs. >> i know the average manufacturing worker in the united states earns over $77,000 annually. how do you have 600,000 jobs that are open right now? >> because they're highly technical jobs. and so we're looking for folks who have backgrounds in technology because every single manufacturing facility is infused with technology. and needs folks with the skills necessary to help us run our plants. we need welders, engineers. folks that have backgrounds and skill sets. >> do you have some of those jobs you can't fill at this point? >> we have a few at the upper end that require deep technical

skills. it's not just the old fashioned manufacturing job of stuffing a cylinder into an engine like we've seen for so many years. our dealers really have it sorted because they need highly skilled technicians to monitor what's going on out in the field. before you ever lay a wrench on a machine these days, you lay a computer on it. >> if you can't find people to fill the jobs it's because you're not offering a high enough wage. how do you respond to that? >> that's a demand and supply thing. what we're talking about here is really some talented people where the schools, the technical schools we're working with and we have relationships with over 30 technical schools around the

world. most of them in this country to help fill this gap. those are higher paying jobs. there's no question about it. we recognize that. >> how many jobs? do we have an idea how many are available? >> 600,000 is an approximation. >> is it they're not based in the right place? are they in another country and you could get them here? >> no. actually, no. they're here. the issue really is the skills necessary to fill these jobs. it's not unique to the manufacturing sector. there are a lot of sectors of the economy that have open jobs. manufacturing just happens to have a large number of those part of the vn we're not training people with the skills necessary. manufacturing today is completely different than it was even a decade ago. it's very, very sleek, clean. technology driven.

and the skills necessary to operate the technology that goes into a manufacturing facility are really rare. those are the things we're trying to find. >> those of us my age remember as we were growing up, a lot of technical school programs and grade school and high school. those no longer exist today. there were a lot of farm kids around the country that grew up on the farm, that were very technical. we don't have a lot of that anymore. now we have to step into sophistication. and the fact it's a more sophisticated model today than it's ever been because of the technology that exists in our case in our machines and across manufacturing. >> ultimately does that mean that companies are going to have to take on the costs of training themselves? >> yes, and we are doing that. we have a wonderful program across this country and the world with two-year colleges, technical degree where these

young folks will come out with a certificate. they go right to work at one of our dealerships. that's working pretty well. that's filling in a gap. but that is our cost. >> i should also throw in that under doug's leadership of the nam, he's appointed a task force. we just put out a tool kit. our institute works with community colleges and manufacturers to try to ensure that the skills necessary are developed. that tool kit is available to help folks who would like to have a job in manufacturing. see how they can enter that workforce. >> doug, while we have you here, we'd love to hear your take on what you see happening around the globe right now. there have been concerned about china's economy and what's happening in europe. what have you seen? >> we've seen all of that and more. it seems like every morning when

i wake up and turn on cnbc, there's some surprise. we've seen a number of geopolitical events this year that i think many of us couldn't have imagined. now hong kong. the ebola thing you were talking about earlier. it just goes to, i think, the example that we've got to manage our business as well as we can every day. because all these things from the outside, we have no control over. don't know where they're coming from. and they can affect the world. we're working hard to keep our companies strong. but we see all that. certainly outside the u.s., the economies are not strong. we're talking about europe. that is still very much a weak economy. the u.s. is actually inching along pretty well. i would say inching along is a good word. we put out a retail statistic a couple weeks ago. they continue to show a very gradual improvement. we see that across the country. we get outside the united states, we just returned from australia. it's a different story.

so the world right now is fairly fragile. i think a lot of that is driven by it's just unpredictable and incredible events we read about it seems like every week or more. >> are you guys -- you think sales can be challenged with some of these declines? certain sensitivity for your business to these prices. >> we're watching all of that. and i just talked with a number of our big customers. and they felt the decline rapidly in the last couple years. they did point out to me which is still accurate to this level that where we are with iron ore prices, coal, gold, these are still pretty good levels historically for those minds that have been existing for some time. but what's left in is still pretty good with relative

returns. at 90 is still good relatively speaking over my lifetime. so i'd say so far, so good. but everybody's watching these to see where we go. again, it's a question of what's the underlying economic growth in the world. which we all know needs to rise. >> doug, you mentioned that you've seen the headlines in these stories that come up. obviously you have operations everywhere. i know you had a number of employees in west africa. what's the situation? have you had to change or pull back any employees? >> we do have a number of employees. and we have evacuated a handful. we don't have a lot of investment there. we monitor that every day. so far for the most part we've been unimpacted. but believe me we're watching this closely. >> i know this is your last interview as chairman of the board for the national association of manufacturers, doug. we want to thank you for the times you've joined us.

thank you both for being with us today. >> thank you, becky. great to be here as always. >> thanks. coming up we'll talk with alan greenspan. he says lack of spending on manufacturing is slowing down the economy. but first, heading to the heartland. our mary thompson in spring field, missouri, hunting for where the jobs are. she tells us what's so special about this town and what jobs they need to have filled. as we head to break, watch shares of mylan. stronger than anticipated performance due to product approvals and launches in the u.s. during the quarter. >> all that goodness, none of the tax revenue back to the united states. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we are watching shares of gopro this morning. effective today a portion of its class a shares will be exempt from a lockup on restriction. the stock bouncing back this morning after getting crushed on the announcement yesterday. the drop wiped out about $800 million in market value in one session. shares have quadrupled since its june 24th ipo. the founder of that company taking some of that money and putting it into a foundation. and that news got people a little skittish. >> i was just trying to get up to speed on this. normally the charity gets to

sidestep the rule that stops insiders from selling stock. that was a big deal. he said from the beginning he was going to sell some stock. and there were people who questioned that at that point. >> i think he was selling into the ipo. >> the bank made an exception. jpmorgan made an exception saying the charity could sidestep this rule. and that is what really angered investors yesterday and sent the stock down. it is jobs friday. we sent mary thompson to find businesses that are hiring. this time she's at the cancer center in springfield, missouri. tell us where the jobs are. >> well, steve, in the medical or health care industry, there is a shortage of back office workers known as medical coders. the need for medical coders is expected to increase dramatically over the next year

because of new federal mandates. so that has companies like trust hcs which contracts out to hospitals, it has it on a hiring spree. here's the company's president. >> over the course of the next 12 to 18 months we'll add to our staff. we're seeking skilled, qualified coders and clinical documentation specialists. >> a medical coder requires 700 hours of course work in areas like physiology and pharmacology. they assign codes to doctors' diagnoses. and determine how much to pay a hospital or a doctor. a new coding standard increases the number of codes over 140,000 from the 17,000-plus that are presently used. so productivity is to be cut in

after as a result meaning hospitals will have to hire more coders to get the same amount of work done. dave strong is ramping up for new coders and includesing pay for experienced ones who are getting bids from rivals. >> we try to be competitive with salaries at all times. so we're putting in place a retention bonus for current staff. >> now, those retention bonuses are going to be from 10% to 25% of a coder's annual salary which here in springfield where cox health operates about five hospitals is $30,000 to $35,000 a year. depending on a coder's experience or where they're located, they can earn more than $60,000. but firm dos not have a lot of time to get them accredited and then the valuable on the job training they need. coming up on "power lunch" we're going to look at how companies are solving for this problem. steve, back to you. >> great story. thanks very much.

okay. thank you for that. coming up, casting the role of the famed business leader. leonardo dicaprio turning down the role. find out white house on the short list. can you guess? >> who's the role? >> think major business iconic leader. >> you just said that. give me more information. >> i'll give you technology. >> steve jobs. >> i'm not telling. you have to wait. until after the break. plus we're counting down to the all-important number. keep it here. "squawk box" returns in a moment. p breath in... and... exhale. aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... aahhh- ahhhhhh. liberate your spine, ahhh-ahhhhhh aflac! and reach, toes blossoming...

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welcome back to "squawk box." casting underway for sony's new

biopic of steve jobs. but he will not be played by leonardo dicaprio. he was rumored to play the part. danny boyle is honing the project. dicaprio wants to finish his next project and apparently wants to take a break from acting. we've been talking about other names that could be in consideration. we're putting some up. christian bale is one name being floated. matt damon, friend of "squawk box," is another one. then ben affleck. and bradley cooper. christian bale is your top pick? >> jobs is a weirdo, could be good for it. >> are you suggesting he's a weirdo? >> kind of, yeah. >> and your list? >> you're so hollywood, it's so ridiculous. i knew you when you were a real journalist. now you're this hollywood --

>> i'm curious. >> you're obsessed. you've just become did sh. >> becky, what's going on? there's other news in the world. >> i'll shout out some names. in the meantime, lebron james is selling his water front florida estate for $17 million. now that he's moving back to cleveland he doesn't need it. it's nearly 17,000 square feet. it features six bedrooms, eight and a half bathrooms, a 500 bottle wine cellar and an affinity pool and a dock. >> ed norton. >> i like ralph pines. i like that. good call. >> weirdos all around me. up next, the maestro, former federal reserve chair alan greenspan. does he think janet yel season doing a good job? and how worried is he about weakness in europe? we'll find out after the break.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. among the stories that are front and center this morning, jpmorgan says 76 million households may have had personal data exposed in a cyber attack. there's no evidence that account information was compromised during the attack and the bank has not seen unusual customer fraud related to this incident. but it's something people are taking notice of this morning. also apple is reportedly talking to music labels about streaming subscriptio subscriptions. this would let them sell its beats service for less than its $10 level. and today marks one week since the departure of bill gross from pimco. the bond giant is still trying to reassure clients. doug hodge writes the perception is there has been a dramatic shift at pimco. but the firm's dna is fundamentally unchanged. warren buffett told us

yesterday he thinks the fed is fueling asset bubbles. >> with interest rates as low as they are, that has caused all other asset classes to go up in value. anything. and that will always be true. every asset is worth the present value of all the cash it's going to deliver between now and judgment day. the problem is figuring is how much. but the interest rate factor, when i say present value, that interest rate factor is part of that equation and becomes a huge element. >> the question this morning, is he right? we're going to ask a man who should know the answer. alan greenspan, the former federal reserve chairman. your reaction to warren buffett's comment this morning. >> first, good morning. glad as usual to be with you. but the answer is yes. i agree with everything warren just said.

it's fundamental economics. that when the real long-term interest rates as low as they are, they affect the capitalization ratios of stocks, real estate, even to a certain extent homes. so when you get a very major decline and real long-term interest rates, it just proliferates through the overall sector more generally and frankly without that, we wouldn't have an at least moderately okay economy that now exists. so it's a significant plus here. and it's -- i wouldn't say the federal reserve basically endeavored to create a rise in stock prices. but they do want asset values to rise. that's what they've gotten. there are secondary consequences

to that. but basically i think overall it's ban good thing. >> let me ask you about a secondary consequence. i will channel my best joe kernen. when you think about the fed, do you hold them responsible in any way for the inequality that we've seen in this country? joe would suggest that assets have gone up. people who have assets have benefitted. people without assets have not. savers have been hurt. >> basically that's true. that's true all over the world. what we've had is two fundamentally different types of economy. one that what is going on in the financial sector, asset values have been rising pretty much around the world. whereas the non-financial sector has been struggle largely because of the fact that a very significant part of the gdp not only in the united states but

elsewhere as well mainly longer term -- longer maturity assets. buildings mainly. structures are down throughout the united states. both residential and non-residential. it's true in many places in the world. including ukraine. >> mr. chairman, it's good to see you. people don't give you credit for something that you began which was the transparency of the fed. and yet the kind of transparency you engaged in, seems a little archaic compared to how transparent the fed is today. so i want to ask you a question i've been puzzling about. what does it mean as we engage some time in the next year or so in the first rate hike, that the fed is publishing or has told us what their expectations are for the fed funds rate? and i ask that in context of something you talked a lot about

which is the terminal rate problem. that is as soon as the fed starts hiking, the market pulls it forward. could you give me your thoughts on what it means we would engage in a raised hike cycle where the fed for the first time is telling us the path of interest rates? >> they're telling the world the path of short-term interest rates. remember, central banks do not and cannot control longer term rates which are fundamentally based on discount factors of expected earnings. but i might even add that the fed is switching or will be switching from the federal funds rate to the interest paid on deposits at the federal reserve. that is reserve balances which as you know they now pay 25 basis points. which in today's market is not bad. i think what we're going to vempblly see is as the rate

movements begin to firm and i think they will, that it's going to be manifested most in the federal reserve actions on what they have to pay for reserve balances in order to keep those balances in place. >> chairman greenspan, we had ray dally here this week. he said he thinks he sees the next 18 months to two years being good for the stock market. he thinks the thing that would throw that off is if the fed raises rates too soon. he thinks heir going to keep rates low for a long time to come, but what do you think? >> i don't want to comment on specific federal reserve policy. but i know the institution very well and i know janet yellen because we worked together for so long. they're all very competent and extraordinarily intelligent. so i have confidence in what

they will do. but remember, this is an unprecedented period in monetary history. we have never been through this. we really cannot tell exactly how it will work out. the major concern that everyone has, obviously, is once you get the basic interest rate movement in place, it takes on a life of its own. and it's going to be very difficult but most interesting to watch how the fed moves itself around this. janet yellen, i'm certain, knows everything i just said. >> chairman greenspan, ben bernanke apparently can't refinance his mortgage. i don't know if you had this problem when you left office. i hope not. but what is going on in terms of the regulations of the banks? are we doing too much? have we over-shot here? what do you think has happened? >> i think that we endeavored to attack the problem that caused the crisis in 2008.

i've always said that the solution is very simple, all we need to do as far as regulation is concerned is significantly raise capital requirements. because the problem that we had in 2008 was serial cof debt failure. i do not understand why we're not going to more contingent funds. because that is the ideal solution to the problem. everything else we are doing i think we can dispense with. >> we got to run, but as an economist, are you worried about ebola? do you think about that in terms of its economic impact here and around the globe?

>> it could be, but it isn't yet. i mean, obviously, it's a very crucial issue that needs to be contained. if we let it get out of hand, remember, we've had problems with epidemics throughout the world and it has had had an effect on the gdp in various places. but broadly i would say medical science is a level in today's world that it's not something i'm terribly worried about. >> okay. dr. greenspan, we're going leave it there. thank you for your perspective. we should also mention the updated version of your new book coming out in paperback on october 28th. >> 40 billion. that was the impact of sars estimated globally. 15% decline in retail sales in hong kong in one month. up next, ebola's arrival in the u.s. giving airline investors the jitters. a decade ago it was sars. that sent the stocks into a

whirlwind. could it happen again? a live report after the break. and later, the transports on a roller coaster ride of late as well. yesterday warren buffett told us he's betting on planes, trains, and automobiles. we'll ride the rails and see if they're poised for a rebound. all aboard. "squawk box" will be right back. charlie, the demand on this network, it is increasing by the second. it's crazy, huh? and people are relying on it more than ever. we cover more than 99% of all americans. i know, i can't imagine living without it. it's a place where people can come share knowledge and ideas. it's beautiful. that's deep charlie.

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welcome back to "squawk box." consumers take note. gasoline prices are the lowest they've been in four years. aaa saying the average price at the pump dropped to $3.33. that's down 10% from this week's high. joe scaring me on that car. maybe it's a different -- there you are becky, driving. >> that was fun that day. yeah. that was about three years ago. >> wow. it has been a rough week for the airlines. from the massive flight cancellations to the ripple effects of the first ebola case in the u.s. our phil lebeau is here to break

it down. >> let's start by separating the fear primarily regarding ebola from the facts about what's really happening with the airline industry. you want to see the fear? look at the arca airline index. investors are worried we're going to see airlines bringing down their estimates because people might not be flying as much particularly internationally. on top of that, you have airlines -- some airlines -- which have exposure to routes in africa saying we are noticing a drop in traffic. emirates is a good example. yesterday the ceo said they had seen a drop in passengers to some african destinations. emirates in particular say there are certain markets within asia, thailand, and vietnam are two that come to line. where they say we're not as interested in flying to africa. keep in mind, 'em raemirates hat of exposure.

united's getting a lot of attention because the one patient in dallas, he took a couple of united flights from europe and then here in the u.s. so united is contacting people who were on the victim's flights. about 300 or 400 people. there is no indication that other passengers are infected or that ebola can be spread simply by sitting next to somebody on an airplane. that said, what people are worried about is whether or not the airlines will see a drop in traffic. we have not seen that yet in terms of international traffic. and the airlines are in regular contact with the cdc. they do this on a number of fronts. it's not just with ebola, they're also always in contact with the cdc. so the bottom line is this. you will hear a lot of people say the airlines are going to have a rough fourth quarter, but keep in mind lower fuel prices there are some saying they'd like to see estimates improve. >> thank you very much.

right now we're going to dig a little deeper into the fears about ebola here in america. joining us now is the director for the center for infectious disease at the university of minnesota. michael, what would you say right now? how would you rate our initial response to the first case of ebola here in the united states? >> well, i think it surely is a mixed response. there are things we could have done better and should have done better. and i think we will do better in the future. i think the real message is this is just the first of what will be additional cases that will occur just like this. >> the cdc has said they think they can very effectively control and contain any sort of situations here in the united states. do you agree with that? >> i do agree with that. i think the real message here, though, is we shouldn't be surprised when additional cases occur. what we're really concerned about and we can't take our eye off of is what's happening in west africa. that is just growing and growing every day in terms of the size and the scope of the problem.

and as long as that's happening, we're going to keep having these sparks fly around the world. >> so you think additional cases don't necessarily arise from the case that's already here in dallas. you think these are other cases from around the globe? >> right. let's be really clear. we don't know that there won't be additional cases in dallas. but it's not because of transmission that's occurred after the individual was identified as having ebola. it's because it happened before that. we don't want to have any confusion there. do i think any others will enter around the world? yes. there will be few, not many. but we have to remember that that is going to continue to be a problem until we get serious about what we're doing in west africa. right now we have far too many promises, far too many plans to do something and only a limited response on the ground. >> what needs to happen and what needs to happen immediately? >> well, we need really three things. first of all, we need somebody in charge. we need a commander who can make things happen over there.

while we do have someone from the u.n. to coordinate activities, we need somebody that can act with authority. >> are you talking about the world health organization? who should pick up that role? >> actually twb the united nations is the organization that has now taken up the role as having a mission to west africa. but what we need is somebody who can actually coordinate across all three countries. and can call in whatever service is necessary. you shouldn't have to have a problem unloading a plane because you don't have a front end loader to do that. and it is five countries, but other two countries have had cases which now have been contained. it's in the three primary countries we're talking about. and that's what we need first. most of all what we need to do is continue to increase quickly the number of treatment beds so they can get people out of the community that are infectious. just like we have done in dallas. so we limit ongoing transmission. that won't stop it. but it can sure slow it down. and we need a vaccine.

we need it now. we need a lot of vaccine. we need to crash that program. this can't be business as usual. >> you mentioned that getting people out of the community in dallas. that's not exactly what's happened. we quarantined four people and told them to stay in an apartment where there are still dirty bed sheets and linens from the ebola patient. what's the proper way of going about this? >> we did get the person out of the community. meaning the one individual affected in dallas that we know of is actually hospitalized right now. that's what we're talking about. in terms of the others, they've been exposed. they could come down with the infection in the next days and week. that's how you break the back of this kind of transmission. and we've done this successfully many times in the past. we'll do it here. we just need to do it better next time, more efficiently. we can't have the confusion about whether someone has traveled or not traveled to a

destination where ebola might be present. but we're going to get that and do it better next time. >> i have a very simple question about vaccines. i'm sure if joe were here he would know the answer to this. is it 100% certain that we can create a vaccine for ebola? and if we do this, is this something the world needs to be vaccinated against this disease? >> actually, that's a great question. a very fair question. you know, as we know, we've been trying for decades to get a vaccine that's effective against hiv and have not been able to do that. based on the information we have so far in early vaccine work with something with pri mates or monkeys. it appears we can make an effective vaccine. we still have to test it in humans. but i'm optimistic we can. what we can't do is try to bring this online more or less the private sector finding a marvegt for it. and therefore they're going to make so much of it.

we need a global response. the whole world needs to response to this. do we need the vaccine for the whole world? no. the hot spot will remain africa and central africa. if we have enough vaccine to cover that, we will stop this from being a global problem. >> is there something we can do. we were talking about homeland security on your way into e the country. on the way out of places like liberia they check your temperature and things like that. >> by the way, there's a story that says a little ibuprofen you can get by that. but when you get here there's no questions it appears to be asked in a meaningful way. should that change? >> well, at this point i don't think we can do anything really to change it. we can only make it better. meaning that the system as it is is about the best we're going to do. what we can do is make sure we really are testing people in terms of temperature if they leave that area of the world. don't forget that right now we are about to see a major labor

migration that occurs every year in africa. many thousands of young boys and men end up leaving their rural villages of africa where they spent the last three months harvesting. they go back to the gold mines, the cocoa plantations, et cetera. they're going to take the virus with them. we could see other areas of africa involved quickly. that's why we have to stop it in west africa. we have to address this really as an entire continental issue and we need vaccine for the continent. >> thank you so much for joining us today. >> thank you. >> i want to point out something my wife said yesterday when we talked about this. she said if i was that guy, i would lie to get out of liberia. >> because you want to get home for better treatment. >> so there's an interest on the part of these people. so the systems we have in place are challenged by that. >> if that's what he was going, the idea he went to the

emergency and didn't wave a red flag. not only did i come from west africa, i came from liberia. all right. coming up, video may have killed the radio star, but yesterday it was investors killing video. gopro stock down after getting slammed yesterday. that and other stocks to watch. we kick off a big hour as we get our countdown to the big jobs report. kevin hastic, austin goolsbee, and larry kudlow all joining us with their predictions and instant analysis. "squawk box" returns in just a moment. organic food stocks, schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind, lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea.

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welcome back, everybody. let's take a quick look at some of the stocks to watch this morning. gopro shares bouncing back after that stock got slammed yesterday on word of an early ipo lockup break. jetblue, that firm sees potential for next month's analyst data. and halliburton upgraded to equal weight from underweight. it is the final countdown. you're looking live right now at the labor -- you're looking at me live is what you're seeing. but also live at the labor department in washington, d.c. where in just over 30 minutes we'll get the number that will drive the trading day ahead. but before we go to break, let's look at futures, see how things are setting themselves up right now. things look great.

dow up about 92 points. nasdaq up about 20 points. all of that could change at 8:30 when we get the number. we're back in just a moment. alw. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

the september jobs report.

will the numbers spook the markets? or can investors expect treats this october? our special jobs panel is ready to go. predictions, analysis, and market reaction. as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. first in business worldwide. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and steve leisman. you're looking in washington, d.c. where in less than 30 minutes we'll get the september jobs report. it's the number that will of course drive the trading day ahead. look at futures in the past 20, 30 minutes things have been looking up, up, up. we don't know if it will change in 30. but nasdaq looking higher at 18

points. s&p 500 up about 10 points. i don't know why everybody's -- what got everyone so excited in the past couple minutes? >> i can't see any reason. >> let's tell you about the estimates though. nonfarm payrolls are expected to come in at 215,000. unemployment expected to remain at 6.1%. and average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.2%. in the meantime, let's bring in our panel. we've got a lot of our friends this morning. kevin haset at the american enterprise institute. austan goolsbee at chicago's booth school of business. gary stern, former president of the minneapolis federal reserve. and cnbc's contributor larry kudlow. and steve leisman. what are you doing over there? >> trying to understand -- never mind. i'm trying to figure out if there's a reason the futures went up. >> i don't want to do

predictions right now. we're going to hold back on the predictions. i can see everybody getting their predictions ready. but we're not going to do that just now. larry, though, tell us where we are ahead before you get us there. >> i think the economy is getting better. okay? i'm kind of optimistic. optimism with a small "o." but i think we're moving into a 2.5%, 3% zone. i don't see any inflation out there. i love the fact king dollar is rising. i love the fact that gold and oil are falling. i love the fact the inflation treasury break even tips are showing no inflation. cap x is coming on stream. and we have a regularly scheduled midterm election which i think will produce more pro-growth policies. i am optimistic. >> you want to take the other side of that? >> no. i largely agree with that. i think things are looking better. if you look at the overall stream of news recently, it's been on the positive side for a year or more. i think while things are not great, we can still identify

lots of problems. >> this is boring. who wants to take the opposite side of this? >> i'll jump on it for a moment. i think looking at economic numbers, it looks better. but looking at the geopolitical sedlines, that's a scary thing. when you look at what's happening in the economy for europe and china and japan, potentially. are those threats things that could be exported into the united states? potentially with the economic slowdown. >> maybe yes, maybe no, becky. i think the scariest thing is the isis story in the middle east because they're going to come at us. so it's out there. i don't know how to model that into a stock market effect. the question is how it will be executed in e the months and years ahead. but i grew up in a period in the '80s and '90s where we always did better than europe. i mean, come on. europe went decades without growing while the united states would grow at 3% to 4%.

this is not new news. >> what about china and the rest of the globe slowing? can we pull everybody out of that? >> absolutely. we are the low comotive. there are things i'd like to change. the united states always leads. always leads. and will continue to lead if we continue to do a few things right. i just love the dollar rising. it's so great. gold falling. >> oil falling too. >> i would be careful on the dollar. >> whoa. >> the reason the dollar is going up is everybody else is going down so quickly. that's putting our exports in some jeopardy. you can see it in autos and other things raising prices. if you're going to have a note of pessimism, it's centered on we have had such a big contribution lately from consumer durables. but a lot of that is probably just making up for the fact that we went for several years with nobody buying a car.

and i don't know that that part is sustainable. i think larry's right. 2.5% maybe inching to 3% sounds right. it's faster than we have been. >> you tweeted me back on cap x. it's improving. the other thing, i don't think the euro is going up just because -- and also the break evens. i think the dollar is going up because the dollar is going up. i think the dollar is going up because the federal reserve is going to gradually, i hope, gradually become less accommodated, raise rates next year. but also the american economy is going better. >> to be fair, it has a downside too. it's not all positive. >> all positive. all 100% positive. >> let me jump in on the downside too. because i just as austan said, i could see a number that could

confirm a softening the last time we saw this number. it's possible. if you look around with the energy prices dropping and potentially dropping a lot. historically energy places like texas have gone through really big boom and bust cycles. we just had a big book cycle. then all of a sudden one of the strong spots on a weak economy is looking a lot less strong. and i think that that kind of sentiment, a little worry about that might be apparent in the data. for me i actually am on the downside. i've been on the upside with this group for about three years. but i think we need to look at what we've been seeing especially in september and recognize things are softening especially off a big second quarter. but even maybe to the lower end closer to two or even below. >> i'm not as sanguine about the international numbers. scale matters. and it's bigger. economy is bigger. if you look around, it's the

point that becky made. if you look at the challenges internationally, not just isis and china's slowing economy, no growth in europe, ebola, the ukraine, et cetera, et cetera. we're used to international challenges. but it strikes me that simply the number of them and the number of things that could go wrong has to be of some concern today. >> but the issue is they haven't gone wrong yet. so we're not going to see those. and the question is as an economist can you try to model that? >> no, you cannot model that. >> it's not perfect. the u.s. should be growing at 4% to 5%. but it's creeping up at 2% to 3%. i think that's a plus in the markets. you know me. i want to slash the cooperate taxes. i think that would give the fed cover and start inching up interest rates. expand fiscal policy.

but i look at these markets and think it's good. i disagree with my pal kevin hassett. we're going to continue to be an energy boom in this country. i think after congress koms back, we are going to have keystone authorization bill. we're going to start opening up federal lands to drilling and fracking. energy is one of the backbones of the american economy. and that is a plus for about 10,000 reasons. >> but when that goes up, price goes down. >> i'm okay with fed -- >> by really high prices, a lot of regions -- those prices are going down. >> know what the average price of retail gasoline was in the 1990s? >> yeah. it was high. >> buck and a quarter. buck and a quarter. there's no reason for oil to be $3.50 at this point. >> also i want to turn the attention to wanges. talking yesterday about rising

quality of jobs. what's your sense out there and to me what's so important about this is the better quality jobs, the better pay, the more consumer spending you get. >> i think that's right on. i think we've seen some improvement. you've already seen the fed trying to give anticipation. don't be afraid to have wage growth. you should encourage that. it's just making up for how underperforming wages have been for some time. i anticipate we'll be getting better news on the front. it's funny to hear when larry's talking about the return of corporate profits, the return of the stock market, we've had record energy production in the u.s. but the president basically said yes, that's what i've been telling you.

this wasn't socialism. i wasn't going to undermine the country. you're doing fine. >> in spite of or because of? >> look, whether you call it in spite of or because of, previously you were saying it was going to destroy the country and now we're back in the lead position. >> i never said it would destroy the country. you know that. my take for years has been free enterprise as a very resilient system. i don't feel like ankle biting the president this morning. i'm not in the mood. all i'll say is from a deep recession we have grown for five years. we should have grown at 4% to 5% but we're growing at 2%. but things are getting better. >> we're going to push the pause button on this for a second. but back in just a bit. our other big story is ebola. a freelance cameraman in liberia has tested positive for the virus. he will be flown back to the states for treatment. he was working with nbc's chief

medical correspondent dr. nancy snyderman this week. he's been working in liberia for the last three years. nbc is sending a charter plane for their entire crew. here's sneiderman on msnbc last night. >> in an abundance of caution, we are self-quarantining ourselves even going beyond the cdc guidelines because we recognize there is a big story back home. >> in the meantime in texas, the cdc is tracking dozens of people who had contact with the man who is the first confirmed case in the united states. that comes after he developed symptoms. the largest data breach to affect jpmorgan chase customers. and the railroads are trying to stay on track. washington putting pressure on the industry to improve its service to keep america's economy chugging. find out if you should be a

buyer with stocks near all-time highs. "squawk box" back after the break. an unprecedented program arting busithat partners businesses with universities across the state. for better access to talent, cutting edge research, and state of the art facilities. and you pay no taxes for ten years. from biotech in brooklyn, to next gen energy in binghamton, to manufacturing in buffalo... startup-ny has new businesses popping up across the state. see how startup-ny can help your business grow at startup.ny.gov

zplnchts welcome back to "squawk box" everybody. the futures right now look like they are indicated higher.

you're getting close to triple digit potential gain ifs for the dow. the futures at this point are estimated to open up 96 points for the dow futures. s&p up 11.5 points. jpmorgan revealing details of a huge data breach in the late summer. 76 million households and 7 million small businesses may have had personal businesses exposed in a cyber attack. but jpmorgan says they have no evidence of the attack and has not seen any customer fraud related to this incident. general motors announcing two more recalls today affecting almost 30 million vehicles in north america. among those impacted, cadillac srx, saab suvs, and spark mini cars. investor warren buffett here yesterday making his bullish case for transports on "squawk." all in on planes, trains, and automobiles. of those three, rails have

performed the best. outperforming by about 15% over the last year. not too shabby. here to break down a great close, the research analyst at avondale partners. to be clear, you know, buffett, a little cagey right? he doesn't say he's buying railroad, but he has a big railroad company. doesn't say he's buying planes but he's got a plane company. so obviously we have -- >> if i owned berkshire hathaway i would say i was invested in railroads. come on. let's face it. >> it's a lot of exposure. >> let me tell you why. larry, you and i have been talking about this since there was a kudlow and cramer show. that's a long time. >> 1952, is that when that start snd. >> 1953? >> i love this guy. >> back at ya. >> little mind reading going on

here. >> it is the economy. it's what's happening with industrial production. you can see the waves coming out from fracking affecting more and more things. if you look at rail car loadings. let's take petroleum out of it so it's not influenced directly by fracking. let's take ag out of it because that depends on what kind of a harvest we had last year. and rail car loadings in the third quarter grew at 5%. 5.3%. that's a growing economy. you look at truck. that's up over 3%. >> you make the case. i don't think you have to make a strong case, because i agree with you that the economy is helping out the loading factors, all that stuff. but then layer in the valuations question. you know, at or near all time highs on the railroads. would be a terrible time to buy. >> heavens no. let me tell you why. i spent all day yesterday with the canadian pacific management team. let me tell you their story. they in the last three years have doubled earnings. and they laid out the plan by

which they're going to double earnings yet again from this point over the next four years. you go line item of the plan, and you say they're going to do it again. >> that's like a tech business. >> is that oil or is that more than oil? >> it's oil but other things as well. we're all confused because we're witnessing the first industrial-led recovery in the united states since 1961. >> great point. >> wow. >> none of us are old enough or bald enough to know what that looks like. >> so we were saying before the oil and gas business hot as a pistol and it's going to get hotter. price wills come down. i think that's a plus, not a minus. but for years and years and years, you're right. myself, highman, we all used to look at trade car loadings. the reason we did was nobody else did. it's a good realtime indicator. and it's doing well. >> is there -- i made a joke before, but is there a

technology story here? i talked to some executives who see huge low hanging fruit in terms of upgrading the technology. >> absolutely. part of it is we're learning how to be better at growing that manufacturing plant called the railroad. part of that is because of technology. >> can i add quickly warren buffett said he watched the car loadings too. but his characterization of the economy was that we're kind of inching along. we're inching along. is that a fair assessment? >> i think we've been in a slow growth economy for some time. what's interesting now is we're seeing an acceleration. we're seeing things from 2% to 3%. >> exactly right. by the way, i want to repeat mr. buffett's call yesterday. it was an important call. buy the dip. >> ray of sunshine kudlow here. >> he gets the nobel prize, right here. >> that's great. thanks. up next, our jobs panel will

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we are just a few minutes away from getting those all-important september jobs figures. and we're going to start with the final countdown.

today we'll get these final productions and a little bit of a new style here. it's time to play predict the payrolls with our panel. you've got your prediction panels in front of you. gary, we're going to start with you. show us your number. >> here it is. >> 210. all right. $210,000. larry how about you? >> i wrote it too small, but it's 215. >> okay. we're going to hold you to that. you're going to change it in the breaks there if you don't like the number that comes out. kevin, let's get to you. what number does kevin have? >> yeah, i was one of the low guys last time but then missed way high. so i'm coming down to about 170. >> okay. austan. >> i was at 205. >> okay. we'll take that. we've got it on the wall here. steve, i know you have a model you figure this out with. >> i'm calculating. carry the three, >> okay. 214. >> andrew? i'm told you cheated.

>> i didn't cheat. >> that's what they said in my ear. >> i have 278. here's what happened. my instinct is usually wrong. >> whatever you decide, go with the opposite. >> my instinct was to go low. so i said screw it, i'm going the opposite way. >> i'll show off my prediction too. got to do this with a little panache. 202. i went low. >> the key to that, look how nice that is. >> next time i'll write for all you guys. looking at these numbers, andrew you took a wild guess with this? >> that's the sorkin model. >> okay. we're not talking to him anymore about this. let's talk to the actual experts at the table here. >> i think predicting this number is not expert, but the. ad. rks came in around 215 as i recall. and looking at a bunch of indicators. you got 80,000 factor each month? >> i don't know if it's that big, but it's big. >> it's almost a hundred

thousand. >> well, our guesses are all plus or minus a hundred thousand. we're going to watch the unemployment rate bend. hours worked, wages, all those things will be important. >> yeah. i think not enough attention is being given to the households survey which we ought to put some weight on that. and this issue of labor force participation and whether the -- whether particularly the young people who dropped out of the labor force are coming back in. >> just a couple things to watch. there's issues with the seasonal adjustments to shutting down auto factories. they don't shut them down much now due to the strong auto sales. there was a strike the prior month. there were also some firings at the casinos. and august is the most revised month in the past eight years. up by something like 70,000 or

80,000. >> that's right. >> that's how i got to my number. >> economists don't care how you get it as long as you get it somehow. you know what i'm talking about. revisions. >> austan, let me ask you a question, buddy. you and i i think agree on business investment for cap x so called is picking up steam. isn't that a big job creator? that's been missing in this expansion. >> it has been relatively missing. there are different theories about why it's been missing. one says they're trying to spend the money on all nma activity. the other says there's a secular trend away from computers and mobile. a lot of that equipment goes away. if we see that come back, i think that's the clearest sign that we actually have made the turning point. >> all right, guys. we're going to be back with reaction from our panel in just a moment. we've got to jump out because we've got the number coming. >> okay. one more look at the countdown clock outside the labor

department. when we return, we will be hitting 8:30 eastern time and the numbers will be out. who will be closest and what will the reaction be? take a look at u.s. equity futures. everything looking very green right now. we'll see what happens in just a moment. your customers, our financing. your aspirations, our analytics. your goals, our technology. introducing synchrony financial, bringing new meaning to the word partnership. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. enagage with us.

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welcome back, everybody. we are just seconds away from the september jobs report. take a look at the futures ahead of that. we've been watching them climb through the morning. right now the dow future's up about 85 points. let's get down to the labor department. >> up 248,000. september, non-farm payrolls increased by 248,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 5.9%. in the month of september, we had as we said the increase of 248,000 overall. sectors with big jb gains, professional and business services up 81,000. retail trade up 35,000. health care adding 23,000 jobs. construction we even saw an upward bounce of 16,000 as well. so again, broad based increases across the board in jobs, in the month of september. average hourly earnings, 2453.

little change over the previous months. the revisions we had july being revised from first 212,000 upwards to 243,000. and revised up from 142,000 to 180,000 jobs. so a bounce back from august payrolls up by 248,000. the unemployment rate dipped to 5.9%. back to you. >> all right, hampton. thank you. >> big numbers in revisions here. and by the way, the august number revised in two steps. and you got exactly half of what you always get in this august revision. so there may be another piece to come. the 180 changes things. you got the snapback in retail what you thought you might get. up 35,000 there. leisure and hospitality up again. construction up strong. and the decline, how did we get the unemployment rate down so

much? up 232 on the employed. minus 329,000 on the unemployed. the workforce remaining about stable down 97,000. we lost about 100,000 in the workforce. that seems par for the course. the broader unemployment or underemployment gauge down by two ticks. that's two months in a row we've declined by two ticks. now standing at 11.8% on the broader measure of unemployed. >> steve, average hourly earnings? it went down? >> average hourly earnings percent looked like zero. unchanged. which is interesting. so you have the job growth. hours worked, up a tenth. let's bring in -- well, we already brought in the panel. larry, give us your reaction here. >> off the top here, looks good. looks very good. andrew wins. >> we play price is right rules here.

and you can't go over. so i went over. >> we have not had heard from rick santelli yet. let's bring rick in first. do you have a reaction? first of all, tell us how the market is reacting and give us your reaction. >> the market's reacting as though you take 180,000, you take 248,000 and average it out at 215,000. you look at that in the average of six months, nine months and gave you on a 10-year note yield. this is the last set of data points regarding the employment to the election. so, you know, that's it. this is what we have to look at. i think the market's handicapping it properly. those that are looking at the numbers no matter what your vantage point or baseline of reference is to history, probably are asking the same question i'm hering all around the pits. thap is why is the fed still

have zero interest rate policy? >> gary stern, answer that question. certainly north of 200,000, that little scare we got in august seems to be being revised away. is the fed at a sort behind the curve? >> i think the question that rick asked is why is the fed not moving. and i think for many fed officials as janet yellen and others have made clear, it's been directed in her speeches. labor market conditions are the ball game. and conditions have clearly been getting better for a sustained period of time now. but the fed is concerned that the numbers we were just talking about a minute ago don't present the entire picture. and so they prefer, obviously, to be very cautious on this score. i do think if you look at this, that the time for the fed to move is gradually moving forward. because the numbers are telling

us a story and the fed is data dependent. >> larry? >> just with respect to gary, i do not believe -- strongly do not believe the fed should be focused on labor numbers to make their policy decision. i think the fed's job is to keep the currency sound and keep prices stable. okay? having said that, the currency is improving and as i said earlier, the market prices are sensitive inflation market prices are doing very well. >> larry, i just want to tell you the 5.9% is below the average of the central forecast of officials for the full year. >> but i don't -- >> so there's three months to go. >> i understand, but i don't believe too many people working is inflationary. i don't buy it. i'm a hard money guy. but fed tightening, okay. yes. slowly, gradually. i don't see any rush here.

the fed should be slow and gradual. if you had a corporate tax cut, that would help a bit. >> i agree with larry on the slow and gradual. the law requires the fed to look at the job market as well as inflation. but this jobs report shows you exactly why the fed hasn't done anything. there's no evidence of inflation in that report. we're starting to see strengthening job market in some parts, but there's still yet no evidence of wage inflation. >> let's bring in jim yurio. get a little market reaction spp good news going to be good news? looks like good news for now. but i can't figure out whether we'll see the same by the end of the day. >> i think good news. we were sitting at all times highs a couple weeks ago standing over the cliff. a little push could knock us off. yesterday at the lows we were down 4.7%. i think that works up some of the market position movement. and now we can look at good

news. when this number printed everybody looked at each other, what are we supposed to do at good news here? then they came to consensus 30 seconds later and bought it. there's clearly something seasonal. i've heard a couple different theories on it. but there's something that boosts these numbers up. this is a good number. but it's not a great number. >> i want to turn to austin on a -- i think i'm probably going to regret it. because the political issue here. if i look at these numbers simply clinically, i see 248, work week increases, obviously the wage number is a big deal. the president's numbers on the economy could not be worse. can you explain the disconnect and what the president should -- and the republicans are likely to make massive gains in the november elections. why is that -- how does the

economic data seem to be so at odds with the polling data, a austan? >> i don't totally know. one is do people vote their actual pocketbook or what they're reading in the media? i think most of our experience suggests it's mostly what they read in the media. so the end of bush, the dad's term, we now know the year 1992 was actually recovery. it wasn't recession. but for sure the election of 1992 was all about the recession. so i think that's one. and then on the election, it does feel like it's going to be a relatively strong year for republicans. but i think at least some of that is because the turnout is so much lower. >> do you want to weigh in on that, kevin? this is very interesting from a political and economic perspective. >> yeah. i'm happy to change the subject from my forecast. >> which was 170, but we're not going to remind people of that.

it was only 170. >> yeah. we can talk about that in a minute, but i think that one of the problems the democrats have is one of their primary themes is that this economy, this american economy is helping the top 1% but not the little guy. and so when we actually start to see benefit to the little guy of growth which is something that kudlow talks about all the time, then democrats are kind of uncomfortable talking about it. and so you can't really say the little guy's doing a lot better. because then you're changing your tune completely. i think they're going to go into the fall saying republicans are for rich people and all the benefits of growth are going for the rich peel. the fact the data are going the other way, they haven't processed how to talk about it. >> look. one thing that's hurt politically is median income. in fact, both average and median income. that seems to be the number dejure. i think it's hurt a lot. if you look at the clear politics, average of polls,

where it is now early october. the gop picks up seven in the senate to 52. that's what the numbers show. they pick up a couple in the house. that could change, by the way. >> i don't want to give everybody whiplash. i want to go back to financials. bring up the euro. now done below 1.26. getting a more capital "k" on king when it comes to dollar. i don't know if interstate rates reacted. >> the dollar will strengthen. >> gold also, i saw a note maybe it was slipping. there's gold. >> i love this. >> i love this. >> what is all this telling you, larry? >> principally, better u.s. economy. real returns. bring your money here. and secondly the fed becomesless accommodated gradually. >> is that what you're seeing from financial markets here? >> that's what i would conclude. this is a positive report.

we might be able to nitpick some, but it's a positive report. the unemployment rate i find interesting and important. because we've all talked a lot about discouraged workers and when are they going to come back in and so on and so forth. maybe there's been too much emphasis on that issue. we've had sustained gains in unemployment now. i would expect people would be moving back in if that were the case. >> but that brings up the quality of the jobs that are there, people who have been left behind. you get forced out of the work place. maybe they weren't ready for retirement but maybe they can't find the job they're looking for. we have a mismatch. today we learned from the national association of manufacturers, they have great paying jobs they can't find bodies to put into. but it's -- >> my point is one of balance. i think we've underestimated the importance of retirement here. you know, back in my days at the minneapolis fed which was five years ago now, our economists

were telling me we're going to see decline of labor force participation going forward because the participation of women is going to level off. it can't rise forever. and because of the abling of the baby boomers. it turns out they were right. and we should be careful about how we think about the labor force. >> the prime age group also is a low participation. that's the flaw in that. >> this is a victory for janet yellen. this should tell her that people are out there and available to work and do not hold strong leverage when it comes to coming back into the workforce or to going to work. if they're willing to go to work -- >> steve, can i add something to that? i think what we're seeing here, the simple indication of this is that we are on a path of going more hawkish while at the same time europe is going more

dovish. what we get to do here is we have low rates but the fed doesn't have to worry about rates going up any time quickly because europe's doing the heavy lifting for us. so if you want to see what the dog is, look at dollar/euro. as larry said for years, we want king dollar. if we could have king dollar at the same time, we have real low rates. it's like we're getting the best of both worlds. i think janet's job is easier than most here. >> you're right. i just want to add the need for pro-growth immigration policy, a better visa policy for the brain y iacs. i believe yellen is a big dove. but i wanted to say this this morning. looking at the scene, she's ending qe this month, right? she's going to follow through. i believe she talks dovish but acts more hawkish. >> that's a great conversation. we don't have time for it. >> but i believe that and i am looking at the markets --

>> i agree with you. >> i understand you. this a kudlow change. last couple months i've been watching and listening. and i'm looking a at the markets. >> maybe we should talk about that monday. >> any time. >> thank you, guys, for joining us. we really appreciate it. larry kudlow and gary stern are staying with us. up next, a look at early movers. jim cramer from the new york stock exchange, i want to hear from him. we'll get his take. "squawk box," bunch left, coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures after a stronger than expected jobs report, take a look. see what is happening. dow looks like it's much higher. 113 points higher. s&p 500 up close to 13 points. good news at the moment is still good news. among the stocks on the move this morning, take a look. salix pharma is now terminating its merger with switzerland's pharmaceuticals. citing a changed political environment related to inversions. a topic that larry and i discussed over time now that the treasury department is cracking down. we're going to come back in just a moment. coming up, jim cramer. what number traders should be watching. more "squawk box" after this. how much money do you have in your pocket right now?

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let's get down to the new york stock exchange this morning. jim cramer joins us now. right after getting this good jobs number. the market looks like it's going to be up. last week we thought we might be headed into a correction territory. there was a little bit of anxiety. are we out of that? >> pending ebola, yes. i think the number today was -- puts the, i hope the death knell to the peak employment story going around. when we had the previous number, it's well regarded if you have two really bad weak employment numbers -- i did data ten years -- two in a row, people say we are going back into recession. what happens, this breaks the notion peak hiring owe kir ccur.

i mention ebola because of the dr. nancy sneiderman story. a cameraman gets ebola. even if you are covering the story, you are vulnerable. >> what about the jpmorgan today? that's a lot of people breached? >> i'm close to palo alto networks. they said over and over again if you look at the spending by the banks, it's troubling. they don't spend a lot. they don't spend anywhere near what they should for cyber security. i have someone who checks every place i have every monday because mark told me i need to do that. we all need to do that. this is not unusual if you listen to what palo alto has to say. the only guys i know who are doing the best threat protection. >> you are looking at your balances every monday to make sure that they are accurate? >> absolutely. >> are you keeping money in multiple places? we were talking about most people have a checking account in one bank.

>> if you're in one bank, you check. >> i'm sitting here looking at the treasury curve. the spread is still very, very positive between long-term rates and short-term rates. given my reading of the fed, which will be very cautious in raising short term rates. jim, i can suggest, i don't know, but i can suggest there is no recession in sight for a couple of years. >> i think you could cause a recession if you took fed fund rates to 4. that's the only way you are going to get it. you are right. which are the beacon. i've been listening to you all morning. thanks for pointing out things are little better in this country. your comments on yellen or so on point it probably shocked people to hear. it's coming from you.

your analysis of the fed is the best of everyone in america. you know i feel that way. >> you're the best, buddy. thanks. >> jim cramer. we'll see you in a couple of minutes. coming up, credit is tight. how tight is it? so tight that ben bernanke can't get a mortgage. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow quires challenging your business inside and out today.

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thought it would be good to get a thought from larry and gary on this. credit is so tight former fed chairman ben bernanke can't get a loan. he was speaking at chicago and said he recently tried to refinance his mortgage and was unsuccessful. the audience laughed. bernanke said he wasn't making it up. he said, "i think it's entirely possible lenders may have gone too far on mortgage lender conditions." have we gone too far with dodd frank? >> someone is getting fired at that bank. >> i think what we see every time coming out of recession that was at least, in this case, had its heart in financial crisis is both the regulators

and the lenders overreact. they tighten. as the consequences, credit is tightened more than you would otherwise expect. i think that's what chairman bernanke's commentary illustrates. but we see this coming out of every recession. it will pass, but we shouldn't be surprised. this does happen with some frequency. >> my wife and i refied two mortgages. i understand bernanke put 20% down. if it will help them, i will co-co cosi cosign. 20% is the rule. >> i want to stick with you. i want the benefit of your wisdom here. give us the overall track on the economy you see going forward. fourth quarter 2015. >> i think there is some improvement. i don't think it's wild-eyed

improvement. there is steady improvement. capex is getting better. we had commentators on cnbc yesterday that believe that. i don't want to get overly political. i'm not taking shots. there is a consensus growing in the u.s. for corporate tax reform, which is going to be great, and for the keystone pipeline, which is going to be great. i think both those things are bullish. >> gary, give us a month or season when the fed does its first rate hike? >> i think they are going to do it the middle of next year. that seems to be the consensus, not unanimous consensus but consensus in the fed and marketplace. importantly, the fed has not tried to talk people out of middle of next year's target. i haven't heard anybody who really carries a lot of weight in the fed make the point that maybe that's not right. so for now, at least, they are content with having people believe it's coming the middle

of next year. >> okay. >> guys, thank you for being here on this friday. >> thank you very much. >> smartest voices. >> buffet, greenspan, kudlow, stern? doesn't get better. >> have a great weekend, everybody. "squawk on the street" joins us right now. ♪ this is how we do it >> good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. 248,000, the headline on the jobs number. good revisions. unemployment at 5.9%, the first five handle in more than six years. pre-market likes it. we'll cover it from top to bottom. our road map begins where else? with the jobs number. 248,000 in september, above estimates. unemployment to 5.9%. previous months revised upwa