talking completely different story and it is difficult to put an all number on it. >> the forecast, the new mediocre risk. 3.7 nrkt in january to 3.3% now. and you see a lot clouds on the horizon. would that go lower. >> we are probably sufficient advanced in 2014 to not make a huge mistake in the forecast. and i hope it doesn't go below that 3.3%. next near we we advised down as well to 3.8%. it is mediocre. but it is recovery. growth, you know, is. >> it is recovery. but we are still vulnerable, whether the weather or a natural disaster, gee polit tix, russia, the middle east. why isn't this feeling sustainable at this point? >> because it has the weight of the leg sis of the crisis. there are regions in the world

that have not yell dealt with those legacies. many countries are much more indebted than they were. the average sovereign debt is about 100%. and they are massive indebtedness. is one. unemployment is the other. 200 million unemployed. 75 million young people unemployed and out of a job or not having found a job for more than six months. that as huge liability when you are trying to develop. >> yeah, we are making progress in the u.s. as you noticed. how much o can we withstand though the american economy with what's going with the rest of the world. >> the american is the largest and generally the quickest to react and pick up and develop and it does so because of a vibrant private sector, which is determined to invest and develop its activity. >> yeah. and we've seen that. what about the fed policy?

you just came out of a press conference where you commended janet yellen on her guidance and communication. you believe the federal reserve is doing the right thing when being cautious on an exit. >> i think janet yellen is doing the perfect communication, in trying to give the guidance that is needed for the market to understand what they should expect. equally she's dealing with a complicated landscape. because while inflation should be kept under control, the job market is difficult to read. the unemployment rate has gone down for sure, 5.9, great. under 6. >> but where is the inflation? >> but the participation in the job market is not high. so she's dealing with difficult criterias and analysis. and i think she's communicating as well as can be done. >> it raises the question on the other side of the federal

reserve amanmandate and we're sg economic growth but american families haven't seen incomes go up in the last decade. why? >> that's big issue which i believe the imf will do more work. the issue of the income allocation. whose benefitting from growth? and where is income going? how much inequality can people bear for growth growth to continue to be sustainable. we have a concern if inequality continues to increase, growth will not be sustainable. >> let's talk about where growth is a problem. you have been out front and warning about super low inflation. mario draghi is going to be speaking at brookings in the next hour. do you predict he'll have do more when it comes to fighting low inflation or possibly deflati deflation. >> i think they have done a masterful job and fired with all

possible cylinders and heavy constraint. our sense is that he has to do everything he can. and that might mean more than what he's already doing. but he cannot be alone doing it. so we also believe that fiscal authorities. >> have to act. >> governments, they have to act and they have to get on with structural reforms. they have to conduct fiscal policies that are at a pace that will not hamper or put a brake on the limited growth that there is. and we all sense that there are a few country, including germany, that can invest a bit more in infrastructure. germany has indicated that it would invest in infrastructure. we believe that it can do a bit more. >> we talked about global risks out there. i know the imf is looking at this disconnect between what you called buoyant market, financial markets and weak economic growth

or at least challenges. what is the danger there of that disconnect? >> well you have two categories. start with the real economy, which is one where there is not enough credit fuelling the real economy. and that is mar particularly acute with the small and medium sized enterprises. the line is going down and we would like the line to go up with more credit fuelling the real economy. so that is one particular danger. the second one is that with a built more buoyancy maybe some of the players are flying too close to the sun and we don't want to see any bubble. >> the you see that? frothy i believe is the word you used in the economic outlook. where do you see that happening. some social media and -- >> these have been sectors that have been most active and engage in probably those where we have

less thorough in depth understanding and knowledge of the actual worth. >> but clearly the imf is watching this relationship very closely. >> yeah, very much so. and we would like to two lines to get a little more closer together. >> right. christine lagarde. always a pressure. and happy birthday. imf is turning 70 years old. >> i look a bit younger right. >> you certainly do. >> thank you sarah. take a look at the markets here. we're down about 137 on the dow. back to 1953 on the s&p. speeches called recovery and reform in the euro area. one he believes bank lending will rebound in the next year. just past 8:00 a.m. at apple

just past 11:00 a.m. here on wall street and squawk alley is live welcome to squawk alley. joining us this morning is henry blodget. and with us as always john and kara. the volatility shows no signs of letting up. the dow posted triple digit moves in 14 of the last 18

sessions. consistent in looking for a downdraft. >> consistent. very worried about valuations which are higher than they appear relative to current earnings. profit margins at all time highs. matter of timing, no idea. but usually a big increase in volatility like this comes back when you might have a turn. >> that said, we did have good earnings. both alcoa and pepsi beat wall street estimates. seems all the focus is on global growth. traders with really watching 200 day moving average. that's 1904. we are still above that. and so this is still viewed as the healthy correction. and everyone has been saying the volatility would come back this fall when the fed was yearing the end of the quantitative

easing and as growth in the economy remained weak. so this is almost textbook for what people were saying would happen. >> given very valuations have been, isn't volatility a good thing? at least a return to normal levels. the vix near 16 now. >> if it stays here, great. and if we up and down like that, down 270, up 270. no problem. just down 270, five days in a row and. >> i'll tell you whose happy about the volatility. is the banks. we'll start to see it in fourth quarter earnings in january because people weren't really buying or selling the melt up or the melt down. there were single trades seemingly moving the market at low volumes all throughout the first half of the year and even in the third quarter. but now that people are buying and selling interday on a lot of these head lines there is going to be more and you will see that lift the bottom line finally for some of those banks.

>> the ten year today, 227. that is not a vote of confidence. >> 16 month low i believe. >> since middle of' 13. >> not a big comment on the economy and where it is. apple here, ice icahn saying th stock is massively undervalued. should be 203 a share. and he urged to accelerate share buy back programs. marc andreessen had some words to say yesterday. >> remember the star trek episode with the good captain kirk and the evil captain kirk? it's one of those. >> carl is the evil captain kirk. >> carl starts off like me makes stuff up. his inner six-year-old comes out. >> he slanders.

all right. ian what was your take? the icahn's recommendation that sh should be a very large. >> i was ready to shred carl icahn for what i admire in many ways, i don't care about the company. just give me my money now and i'll go onto the next thing. carl is saying very clearly this is a great company. but what he's really doing is this is another version of the bill akman i'm going make my talking my book very vivid for you. i'm going to lay out this amazing scenario with all this money to be made and hopefully everybody out there will listen and believe me and bid the stock price up. that is what's really going on. should they do a tender offer? absolutely not. i'm a apple shareholder. i'm happy with the returns i'm getting. they should do exactly what

they're doing. why would you just syake the cash and again, hand it to carl icahn and then he'll go onto the next thing. >> tender offer is asking the company to two this things, one establish a fair value. for the company to have a referendum and say this is how much we believe the shares are worth. and second asking the company to say here is how much we need for acquisitions and the rest -- and i don't think apple as the company willing to do either of those. but the co-authors. icahn's son brett. and brett is the one who told icahn not to sell netflix. people actually watch this. this is popular. >> and they are still in netflix. >> yeah, we are and you take a look at this and the case icahn makes in this. and i think he's really as i said talking to investor, not a

apple. how iphone is going to maintain loyal user base and defie kmodization. a sense that a tv is coming in just over a year at $1500 average selling prices. that the watch will maintain a 450 average selling price three years into its run, which again would surprise me. apple probably wants to come down in the price to broaden the market. so lots of issues there with that. >> what's so funny about this is analysts always criticize ridiculous price targets and assumptions. now they are not doing that. everyone is just paralyzed by the caution and prudence. so big shareholders saying no one else is doing it. i got do it. . here is the incredibly rosie scenario. they are going to sell boat loads of the everything. >> the inverse of the thousand dollar qual com target. >> his target. he's even an owner so he benefits directly.

>> henry is going to stick around for another block or two i think. keep it here. icahn will be on our air in a cnbc exclusive. when we come back he knows more about start-ups than most anyone. we'll hear from sam altman, plus an inside look at the future of tv t ceo of discovery will join us in a first on cnbc interview. and a look behind alibaba's investment in u.s. sports. joining us later on this hour. with the dow down 100 squawk alley back in a minute. ♪"in the hall of the mountain king"♪ [beeping on the computer] peter come take a look at this. [beeping sounds are more rapid] [beeping sounds are even faster] mr. daniels? mr. daniels? look at this. what's this? the numbers they keep getting bigger and bigger. the clicks are off the charts. yeah the clicks are off the charts.

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welcome back to squawk alley. check out tesla. credit suisse. tesla shares up over 2% on a day carl when the markets are very much in the read. >> dow is down 112. after the best day of the year for the s&p. but we know the chop we've seen over the past several sessions. we'll keep an eye on this.

>> busy day for fed speak. and i know a lot of traders are going to be watching that but it does seem to be mario draghi moving the markets today. meanwhile day two of the first ever vanity fair new establishment summit under way in san francisco. it brings together the new and old guards from across all industries. and andrew ross joins us with the discover ceo david zaz love. >> thank you. we're in san francisco this morning. we're still new. i'm going to say young and new. >> let's talk about cable tv specifically. what i want to talk about for a moment is our parent company which is comcast corporation. you came out publicly and privately with the fcc against

that transaction, i think. that's what's been reported and comcast came back out and didn't mention you specifically by name but said some of the detractors of this deal were extortionists, that folks like you have come to them for better carriage deals. you didn't get them and then you went to the government. what do you say to that? >> first that is not the case. comcast is a great company. we actually didn't come out against the transaction. we simply raised some issues that we think are important. we are the largest independent programmer in the world. here in the u.s. we have 14 channels. and we've launched more channels in the u.s. than all media companies combined and we are about reaching different ethnic groups and diversity in the u.s. so the question of how big comcast is going to get and the implications that has for us to continue to invest in new channels and new continue content is a serious issue and meaningful. and what we said before and now is it is a serious issue and we are looking at and the justice

department is looking ate. >> is there truth to the idea that you and others have been trying to negotiate better carriage agreements with comcast and part of those deals effectively are silencing deals. meaning we will bless this and we won't raise any concerns if you just give u.s. the better carriage deal. >> the answer is no. our deal with comcast is up in the near term. and as a result of that just like with every distributor we announced we did a big deal with sun link three days ago. we're in negotiations with all distributors at all times. i think the real issue is the justice department and the fcc is looking at size of comcast and seeing the implications on independent programmers, not just us so there can be a diverse pallet of content for all groups. and it will probably get decided some time next summer. >> you think that far.

>> it has already been pushed out a little bit. can reason is it's raising serious issues on broad band and cable. >> do you think it should be approved? >> that's not for us to say. comcast is a great company. they have done a great job on programming and distribution side. it is not personal. >> it sounds like you would approve it. but what kind of the restrictions do you want on it i guess? >> the fcc and justice department is whether they do for a living. they want to make sure there is a fair opportunity for real investment or content. they don't want a marketplace where there is two or three players and that's it. we've launched six channels in the last three years. and wae want to to continue to invest in the u.s. and build great content. that's all. >> no question you have killed it over the last couple of years. ratings, broadly speaking not

just discovery but across the board in cable have been down what. do you ascribe that to. >> first consumption of content in general is up. people are consuming content on a number of platforms and woe look at it all over the world. we're in 230 countries. we look at viewership all around the world and in a number of markets it is growing. here in the u.s. it's down for the last few months. the question is, is that real? and is it the beginning of an issue? or is it just something that's happened for a short period of time? >> international question. you have bought euro sport. you have compared them to espn. i'm going to be talking to bob uygur in a bit on the stage. is it really espn and what would have to do to get it there and also how should wall street view it. >> espn is a great company and done a great job. few euro sport for us is a

terrific asset. we reach over 200 million homes. so we reach more homes in europe than espn does here in the u.s. it's profitable. and it gives us great content that is live, that is must have. we launched a few months ago a euro sport app which is doing very well. where we go directly to consumers. they can get euro sport. we have between two and four channels in 70 countries. but you can get a euro sport app with a direct fee and we build the direct relationship. but for us euro sport is a cherry on toch a great inertial business. outside the u.s. we have on average 8 channels in 230 countries and with euro sport we have now over ten channels in 230 countries. that is our secret sauce really. the fact that our content works well around the world and the number of channel wes have and the scale outside the u.s. >> final question.

amazon, netflix. there is speculation. you have not sold them programming yet. others have begun to do so. do you have programming that you could sell to them? and would you? >> sure we do. with we actually had deals with both of them. i think they do a very good job. netflix is a terrific service. we love the idea of svod. it's more money for us. on the content side if you are in the business today and you own your own content. which we do. so that is just another window for us. so it is really a matter of value. >> the one and only, david zaslav. thank you for joining us. back to you guys. >> thanks and we'll have more later on this hour. we're still watching the markets. the dow is down 117. s&p and nasdaq both down a fraction of a percent as well. during the all the volatility t european close has been the big driver of market action here stateside. we'll have the close and impact

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we know the european close has been a catalyst at least for the interday trading. look at europe as they near the close. early gains gave way to worries about germany's own weakness. exports down in august. the largest since 2009. and keeping an eye on draghi's comments as he addresses the brooksings institution. r rangold among big winners today. henry are you on the lookout for anything dramatic over the next two three weeks other than earnings. kurngs effects? >> the geopolitical stuff is still worrisome. just the data points. we seem to be at another choice

point here. the complacency is evaporating. anything startling either way dould a lot. >> woe got a couple interesting events in the next couple weeks. apple's ipad event coming and all the interest around apple. is certainly going to be notable if there is a larger ipad and more software enhancements. and microsoft with a cloud event in san francisco on the 20th of october. cloud of course a big subject for oracle at open world. it is a flash point for all the big teches that marc andreessen thinks are going to break up in the next five years soo we'll see if they can stave that off. >> and tesla unveiling the d. >> vastly more exciting than the ipad event. is there anything they can even say with the ipad event. >> i think we are at this equilibrium between pcs and a lot of analysts thought were going to be down.

they managed to be flat this year. and tablet which is a lot of people thought were going to be way up. they have also been flat. so whose going to push, if anyone and get growth out of this. apple is the leader in tablets. this is the chance to make the case for the next year tpc going down and the tablet going up. >> henry good to see you. and congratulations on the business insider silicon valley great event. #sa 100 if you are curious. when we come back a look at alibaba's play in u.s. sports. plus it has four legs, a hump and now a job offer from google. we'll explain a little later on squawk alley. dow is down 128. back in a minute.

sni it's been a rough month for the nfl but merchandise sales are soaring. fanatics, sales of nfl gear up 20% so far this season. joining us here at post nine ceo, good to have you. to what do you contribute the sales. >> i think fans contribute mostly what happens on the field rather than off. is what we're seeing. and sales are up 20% year to year. it is one of the strongest leagues running right now.

and the quality on the field is fantastic. and fans really get behind the winning teams. san diego chargers and philadelphia eagles are doing great. those are up and the other factor is the individual player performance. so kirk cousins coming in and replacing rg3, he game the number one jersey overnight. >> do you need those block buster franchises to off set some of the other franchises? >> the overall growth is happening. any given year a remarkable stat is 85% of teams see a sales gradation from as much as 5 to 10% from year to year. and we can serve all fans. we're just riding the way of ecommerce growth. >> how much of your sales growth is coming from mobile.

i know you have an app. i've downloaded it. and interesting, in apparel you are selling jerseys for a hundred bucks, 150 bukz. how much does that play. >> mobile is a hugs a poefe s a the agenda. when we see big events like the super bowl where people have two screen. the ipad and the phone. >> the shrink and it pink it. take something catered for women. and any goods drop off of saems aimed at women. >> every aspect is doing well. women, youth, mens you name it. there have been really positive stories as well. the devon still feature last week, with a tragedy what

husband daughter his daughter is going through. fans ral s rallied around that. and he was the number one selling jersey last week. >> are fans going -- >> i don't know. i don't have visibility into that. >> there have been a lot of people who said the future of the nfl is in question. maybe not this year but 20, 30, even 50 years down the line. low howe you do plan for the business strategically given the status of the nfl. >> as owe mentioned we are the global leader of merchandise online or off. every league. power nba, nhl. we a broad portfolio. i'm long-term bullish. you look at the popularity of media around sports and that is going to fuel fan interest.

i'm long on all sports and we have a diversified portfolio. >> how long is the long tale in your business? i know the most popular athletes and teams must make up a the decent percentage. but i'm looking through trying to see beyond jerseys what is popular? denver broncos lady sublime knit pants. how many more items in your back catalog that you think will do well. >> we carry over a million products. we have color, gender, size, then player name and number. that permeates out to a huge selection and i think that is one of the big advantages we have as an online player. we can serve any fan, any market. so the long tail is very long in this business. it is not all jerseys though. that is one misperception. it is spread out across many categories. >> what business do you think alibaba wants with you in the future it's an investor.

>> we a great group of investors. they are a financial investor. but our view is we pick investors with the different expertise, technology, global station or otherwise and i think we are a great business and great investment. so they got behind us. >> doug, thanks for coming by. >> the dow down 140 here. pretty much where has been for the past half hour. drag gri had lines. he has said we are willing to move even further into active control of the balance sheet size. also politics has not been a constrai constraint. we'll keep an eye on that. >> and the more than 700 start-ups he's invested in. what do you think thi is the hottest trend in silicon valley right now. josh is live with the answer. >> just recently sam altman

personally led a $50 million financing round for reddit. so i asked him. >> i was one of the earliest users of reddit. there are aren't that many really high levels of engagement and with a million users. >> marc andreessen, peter thiele. also snoop dogg. how did he get involved in here. >> i think his account has more karma than any other account i looked at. but the site loves him. when we were sitting with the reddit tell they said it would be great if we could get snoop. >> and airbnb, investors who are watching this, if they are putting money to work in large

hotel brends would you be worried about airbnb. >> the trend certainly seems to be around the airbnb. and i for myself have used it for business trips. it's easy to say hotels are hotels. but it's hard to predict low the future unfolds. i certainly would be somewhat nervous if i was a the hotel owner and watching people use airbnb over a hotel. >> another is drop box, the online storage service. microsoft google and apple they are now offering similar tools and cutting prices. but altman says drop box's strength is that its service works across multiple devices. i asked altman if he worries we are experiencing another tech bubble here. >> the companies do have phenomenal growth rates. i think it is more a lack of other opportunity for capital right now than anything else

that are driving valuations but the fundamentals of some companies are just incredible. like the growth rates and profit margins are impressive. >> as we head into 2015, a trend that continues to excite altman is the so called sharing economy which he sees continuing to grow and evolve. one start-up he himself uses, ins cart, where personal shoppers pick up and deliver your groceries. back to you. >> josh lipton out west. when we come back from street to camel's eye view. a close look at google's latest project. and the market now down 170. these are critical lows here. s&p down a -- >> i'm watch iing after the miracle in new york with the magic minutes. we're going talk about that. and something else too, the cap likely in negative territory.

the dax around 9,000. and we're going to talk about all that after the break.

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coming up at the top of the hour karl icahn joins us and for the first time ever hear from his son brett. and also david schechter.

another buy back saying the stock is worth double writ's currently trading. and the also going to ask brett and dave about the netflix bet. if they are still sticking with it. don't miss a special edition of the halftime show. see you in about 15 minutes. >> can't wait. session lows. dow now down 191. the european close and volatility returns. the s&p is down almost 22 points which once again in the neighborhood of the worst losses of the year. >> and of course we've been looking at the european close as the catalyst. and in days past it provided a bounce. not the case today. let's get over to andrew socc socceren. >> we're here with the one and

only editor of vanity fair. graydon carter. you come up with this list every year. now the 209 year. how much campaigning goes on between owl the moguls. elon musk is number one. >> there are people who do campaign. they don't do it overtly to me. to my staff and more than. but elon is is what he is. >> now all other businesses including the conference. >> i'm note sure we're moving into the conference business. we are doing a conference. >> what is this all about? >> it is the 20th anniversary of the new establishment and marked a seismic shift in from the old establishment of washington and new york 20 years ago to the new establishment of california, nosh and southern california.

so we thought, you know, we'd make it live and see how it goes. >> whose of all the people you have put on the list at number one slot the most impressive person you think that is sort of the truest member of the new establishment? >> you have people like steve jobs and elon musk, i think they will be remembered for a good while as the we edison. murdock has had, whether you like him or not arn amazing impact on western culture. and so he's been on that list every year of the 20 years. >> future of media. >> future of media. >> publishing media. >> larger subject, please. >> larger subject. do you think magazines, even monthly magazines, deare i say will exist in the current form ten years from now? >> the fact is things will

evolve and we sell very few digital editions now. but basically a magazine you can get them anywhere. it's not that expectative. you can recycle it. give it to a friend and it is a brilliant invention and still quite a experience. i think in ten years it will be mostly digital and we'll print some, yeah. >> graydon, thank you. carl back to you. >> andrew sorkin thank you. and let's go to dominick chu here. >> the highlights from bill gross's first investor letter and call if you will a as member of the janua of the janus capital group here. a number of highlights. first saying that the global economy is slowing, also he's not seeing significant bear markets really at this time. he comments on the unconstrained

bond fund he'll be managing there. he's looking for ton mostly in bonds. and likes the small size otd the janus on constrained bond fund. also interesting thoughts here on returns for asset classes going forward. he says in his investor letter, if yields can't go much lower than the bonds market capital gains are limit. that applies in other asset categories. we've had the biblical seven years of fat we must look forward to years of leaner. so bonds he thinks will return 3 to 4% at best and stocks returning about 50 5 to 6% on the outside as well. a and just some of the highlights coming out of this investor letter and his first web cast. >> everyone in the fixed income community down will be pouring

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had given a little more in that salespeople. and here's rick santelli. >> the reason i love doing my spot is i can react to everything live. traders down there wish draghi had done more. here's what i hear. we are willing to do what it takes. i'm paraphrasing. down here the only word they really cared about is define we. who are the "wes"? yesterday, the minutes, two eastern, one central, changed everything. as i look up at the screen and see boiling point, 2:12 it jumps out at you that the half leitch of some of the management speaking regarding the market they are on top of being interest rates has about a half-life of mayonnaise in a

hundred degree sun. be careful here. i left hand at the press conference and made the statement. now is it only me and people on the floor. they just didn't see the highlight or the tone of the statement or the minutes but about europe or the dollar. mentioned but not the highlight. seems as though becoming more of a hyal. in europe, just like here. if you look at the interday two day and the dax or the cac in france, which didn't close in positives here. we really need to pay attention to those. and last but not least we could learn a lot by y sage investors of earlier generations. and we had a couple on and i found one segment particularly interesting. let's run the tape. >> a portfolio question. i'm a long-term investor. i've got a five year point of view. where do i have greaters risk? the bond or stock market. >> i would say unequivocally in

the bond market. >> i don't disagree and who would i be to disagree with leon cooperman. however i think part b is with whenever that clock is that he's referring to that the bubble burst in the fixed income market, i would say about one new york minute after that what do you think is going to happen to interest rates? and what is going to happen to stocks? okay if the bubble bursts and interest rates go up maybe he's right but about one minute later you see the equities rip to the downside. >> rick santelli. dow now down 223. tuesday down 273. wednesday up 274. today down 223. more than three years since the dow had more than three 200 plus point moves in a row. back in a minute

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. another day of volatility. this is going make it three in a row with a dow down 233 points the s&p down 26. head lines from stan fisher and

bob is on the floor. >> we've been drifting low since the beginning. but material stocks and financial stocks have weakened late in the day. mr. draghi gave speech somewhat down beat not. recovery without structural reforms in europe. rerepeated that again today. expiration reduction stock as oil moving towards 86. that's been weak as well. the energy complex initially and then everything else following. >> bertha coombs at the nigh ne name ex. >> the russell 2,000 is in bear territory and led by biotech today. and also chip names when you start looking a the philadelphia semi-conductor index for example. you are just seeing a the real

technical breakdown. it is down at its 200 day moving average and that is just a sell signal for a lot of folks. back too you. >> mere we are again into an uncertain afternoon. >> dollar creeping up too. part of the reason stocks are coming down on the back of the federal marks. >> and wapner is going to have something. >> carl. have a great rest of the day. welcome to the halftime show. we are at session lows. the dow is down nearly 230 points. s&p 500 is down more than 1%. dow looking at its third a straight day of a 200 point move. the big downdraft and then the big comeback and now perhaps settling the score. so we'll see how think things develop and cover that through the entire program. and ien want to get to the new letter from karl