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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  October 16, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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and the yield on the ten-year note after moving below the 2% mark to 1.91% is now holding at 2.146%. ty? >> there is a lot of suspense left in this trading day. >> there really is. >> that will do it for this edition of "power lunch." thanks for joining us. >> "street signs" starts now. well, we have a comeback on our hands. at least from yesterday. stocks are doing something that they have not done in three years. hi, everybody. in moments we'll bring you that remarkable stat and get some big-money advice all hour long. let's take a look at this turnaround more closely. we've got the dow currently flat. okay, yeah, it's flat, but it was down 197 points at the low. even the nasdaq which dipped again in correction territory earlier on today is also managing to recover today. all right. to help you make sense of all of this chaos, we have built it bigger, stronger, faster, let us just call this the $6 million wealth roundtable. melissa lee, jon najarian, larry
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kudlow, jim cramer, rick santelli. let's get to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. bob, what we said was basically this. a 200-point swing is the first time we've seen that, what, since october 2011? >> yeah. and we have had had a somewhat calmer day, but the volume is still almost the same as it was yesterday. about twice normal. i just want to point out the s&p 500 was basically moving downward. we were as much as 27 points to the downward side. and put up the s&p. by about 10:20 eastern time. and then we had some comments from mr. bullard talking about the possibility that perhaps the fed should do some things a little bit further on without raising interest rates. before they raised interest rates. and that caused the market basically to rise rather notably. that's really what turned things around. a couple of other things that
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really mattered, the ten-year yield turned around as well. beginning about 6:30, 7:00, that turned around as well. that helped. oil was below $80 at one point. about 7:00 in the morning. and it, too, started moving and again moved up more aggressively after about 10:20. so these two things turning around is what mr. bullard's comments i think are the main things that moved things. shale plays and all the energy stocks that had been all throughout the last couple of weeks are largely to the upside. some of them up like u.s. sil a silica, that's a sand play also on the upside. as for ebola concerns, we saw hospitals down 4% or 5% yesterday. they are all reversing that move to the downside today. so a lot more stable. but brian, i do want to note that we are going to do maybe another 5 billion shares down here today. we did almost 6 billion yesterday. so the important thing, volume still quite heavy. >> i know everybody's all focused on bullard. here's my problem. he's not a voting member and
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will not be until the year 2016. >> right. and -- >> i just find it hard to pin it on, with all due respect to bullard, his comments. >> yeah. john williams of the san francisco fed was talking about this on tuesday as well. he said that he would be open to a new round of quantitative easing if the outlook changed significantly. now, maybe that's not surprising, but the point is the markets again moving and being affected by people talking about either extending qe or doing another round of qe or moving out any hikes in interest rates at this point. so we're clearly moving a bit on federal reserve comments today. but i agree with your point. he's not a voting member. >> the other thing is, i was speaking earlier with jim, and he was saying bullard said that the economic fundamentals of the u.s. economy are just fine. he even used the word "strong." if he's not worried about the economy and he's talking about delaying the end of qe, was he just trying to jawbone the markets higher or help out asset prices? >> if you actually read his comments -- and he gave it to an interview -- on an interview
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today, they're rather confusing. he seems to be trying to say we are here to do something if things fall apart. in particular, in case we have disappointment on inflation. and a lot of this he was addressing was on the inflation front. his actual commentary was a little on the confusing side. but the street took the basic comments from mr. bullard to indicate that the fed should consider delaying the end of its bond purchase program. that was the headline that hit first, and that was the one that traders actually traded upon. >> quick question. >> just quick. look, the fed wants to get out of the bond-buying business. all right? if you talk to fed insiders, if you talk to recent fed people who are now outsiders, they want to get out of the bond-buying business. there may be an interest rate issue on the timing of the first rate hike, but the idea that we're going to see more qe, zip, zero, zilch. >> i think you're right. i think if the fed were to even try to do something like that,
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it would really discredit them. i know that's a strong phrase. i feel that way and i think a lot of people here feel exactly the same way. i think the chances of that happening are practically zero. you can see just talking about it moved the market. at 10:22, the market turned around, and that was when the bullard comments came out. >> before we let you go, i know you'll talk to us later on, but there's also breaking news out of the s.e.c. how big is this? >> i think it's important -- i don't think it's a huge deal, but i think it's an important one. the s.e.c. is charging a high-frequency firm with fraudulent trading to manipulate closing prices. the firm is athena capital, it's a very small firm, but they are alleging they were involved in marking the close where they bought stocks or sold stocks at the close that affected the closing price. so what they did was at the very last second, they would put in enormous numbers of buy and sell orders that would effectively move the market around. and since they were mostly very, very small stocks, they were able to move -- maneuver the
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prices in a way that at least the s.e.c. considered to be abusive or manipulative. those are legal phrases. they're fined $1 million. this is not an enormous deal here, but i think it's important that they have finally found at least one firm that was engaging in abusive practices. and this has been very hard for them to do. they haven't had the data to get access to the information to understand exactly what's going on. and in this case, they actually had e-mails. and i think that was the real reason that this occurred. now, i don't know how extensive these practices are. i suspect they are not. that extensive. but i do believe there are few rogue traders out there who are engaging in abusive practices and to the extent the s.e.c. can get at them, good for them. >> i'll disagree with you a little bit, my friend, in that this is not a big deal. the reason i say that this is the second case in a week i think where they've gone after a firm. the s.e.c. does historically go small first. you want to get a litmus test. you want to figure out the market. you want to understand this a little bit better.
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so no comment needed from you, bob, but i just want to be on the record as thinking this could -- could -- portend bigger things down the road. i just think they might be sniffing around the industry to try to understand it a little bit better and using smaller cases to begin. >> i think it's highly unlikely the bigger players are involved in these kind of manipulative practices. let's just leave it at that. >> that's not what i'm suggesting. i'm saying the s.e.c. might be doing some test runs. let's west because we've got some breaking news on apple. jon fortt, what will the ipad 62 cost us? >> reporter: brooian, buckle in. i've got updates on the ipad and the overall narrative. first the imac. we have an imac with a retina display. they're calling it a 5k display. the 27-inch display will have 5,210 pixels by 2880 pixels. that's 14.7 million pixels for
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the people doing the multiplication at home. bill shuler calling it the highest display on the market that you can buy on a pc. looking back to the ipad now, we've got some pricing details. apple is keeping the original ipad mini around at $249. from a step up from there, you can get the retina display of the mini 2 at $299. and then up from there, the mini 3 at $399. it starts with 16 gigs of storage. goes up to 64. and then 128, much as the iphone 6 has. now, clearly what apple is doing here is making a play for premium. what we're seeing develop over the holiday season is competitors like amazon offering lower-range tablets with lower spe specs for as cheap as $99. that's what they're trying to present for a reason for people to pay more. we'll see if that works out. they're also trying to cover
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every price point from $250 up to the ipad air 2 which starts at $499 and then goes up from there in larger capacities, brian. >> quickly, jon, will any of these changes or updates to the ipad actually make a significant uptick in sales? tablet growth sales growth had been slowing. >> reporter: yeah, actually, it's been flat to down on the ipad. a couple things i would point out, one is touch i. drchgd., t fingerprint sensor. it was popular in the iphone 5s. continues to be popular. apparently that might give people a reason to upgrade to these newer ipads and to add to the margin. remember, it's just the latest ipads, not the mini 2 or the original mini that have that touch i.d. capability which you can use to buy things more quickly online. it doesn't appear that this has the capability to do it in store. but at least you can use your fingerprint to unlock, to handle security stuff and to buy online.
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so apple's making a premium argument here for the pc with the imac with retina display and also for the ipad itself. >> 14.7 million pixels is very disappointing. i had 13.5 million in our office pixel pool. i lose. jon fortt, thank you. back to the markets and look at what's happening in the bond market. ricky, how do you explain the reaction we saw in yields which was on the upside after those dovish bullard comments? >> reporter: believe me, bullard didn't make the treasury market move. the treasury market was all yesterday. and it was all upside in yield. after we had had the big selloff in rates, t -- or i should say the big run-up in prices, what happened next was very quick. we basically started to pop back over 2% in the 10s. we pop back above 130 in the 5s. and other than a wee bit of time around 6:00 a.m. this morning even before everything was shifted to our time zone, we only spent a brief time under 2%. the treasury market looks to be
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telling me that if you're really nervous about stocks for the next couple of days, you're going to get a stay of equity execution. now, what does it mean in the grand scream heme of things? we did have better data. look at the big things. retail sales yesterday, production, pretty good today. and spread relationships between some of the foreign interest rates like bunds are changing which means the relative value trade may be changing. so i think rates are pretty hunkered down at these current levels for the rest of the session. >> got it. thank you very much for that, rick santelli. well, as dallas county declaring a state of emergency over ebola, we discuss the impact on the economy. plus, some skeptics have called it a bit crazy but most at least admit that somewhat, yes, ebola concerns are having an impact on stocks. jim cramer has a strong opinion about that. he'll be along momentarily. let's take a look at the dow as well. we can see it's holding in positive territory, just marginally, but it's a 19-point gain after we were down off
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session lows by 197 points. the wild ride continues. stay with us watching the markets here on "street signs." with my united mileageplus explorer card. i have saved $75 in checked bag fees. priority boarding is really important to us. you can just get on the plane and relax. i love to travel, no foreign transaction fees means real savings. we can go to any country and spend money the way we would in the us. when i spend money on this card i can see brazil in my future. i use the explorer card to earn miles in order to go visit my family which means a lot to me. ♪
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lawmakers on capitol hill grilling the cdc director on their questionable response to the deadly ebola virus. meg terrell is covering it all from capitol hill. tell us what you're hearing, meg. >> reporter: hey, mandy. right now in the middle of a pretty intense q&a session with
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dr. frieden and others. off the top, the opening statements, the chairman, fred upton, a republican from michigan, making the call for travel restrictions. >> we need a plan to treat those who are sick, to train health care workers, to safely provide care and to stop the spread of this disease here at home and at its source in africa. this includes travel restrictions or bans from that region beginning today. >> reporter: cdc director tom frieden, of course, fielding a lot of questions on that, finally responding that they will do -- they will consider any options to better protect americans. now, the white house in its daily briefing saying it still opposes a ban on travel from those three countries in west africa. and president obama meanwhile canceled travel outside of washington today in order to focus on ebola, saying that he will call members of congress today and foreign leaders to discuss the ebola response. now, the q&a is still ongoing. there's a lot of questions about the protocols in place in dallas and elsewhere in the united states in order to contain any spread here.
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we'll bring you any more updates as we get them. back to you. >> thank you very much. meantime, customs agents and health care workers are stepping up screening at our nation's airports to try to stop ebola from spreading inside the united states. phil lebeau now is live at dallas-ft. worth airport. phil. >> reporter: and brian, a lot of questions for the faa about why it doesn't institute flight restrictions. in fact, at a hearing on capitol hill, faa administrator michael huerta was asked about it. here's what he had to say. >> we are all working together at assessing this on a day-by-day basis. cdc's determination is that a travel ban in and of itself does not address the challenges that we have here, but it is something that we continue to monitor each day. >> reporter: so what's been the impact of the ebola virus and concerns from the flying public? well, the good news for the airlines, flight bookings for the future have not been affected yet. there are people who are
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discussing whether or not there should be flight restrictions. but as you heard meg mention, the white house at this point does not want to go down that path. there are greater concerns, however, from the flying public about whether or not the cdc has a handle on how to handle this entire ebola virus. here's what some of the passengers we've talked with today had to say about their concerns when it comes to the cdc. >> i don't feel safe to fly. i'm not going to fly. like i said, i don't even feel comfortable being in the airport right now. >> reporter: and we heard that over and over today. quickly take a look at the airline index. it is having a bit of a rally today, which is welcome news for the transports because they've been beaten down over the last week. bottom line is this, mandy and brian. a lot of people here concerned about the cdc, not concerned with the airlines that they're flying in at this point. guys, back to you. >> phil lebeau, thank you very much. back to our panel, melissa lee, jon najarian, larry kudlow.
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thank you for joining us. jon, how much of the nervousness in the markets this week do you think is due to fear of ebola and what impact that may have on people's actions and therefore economic activity? >> i think it has definitely some impact, mandy, but i could cite the big selloff in crude oil as well as the big rally on bonds as primary. in other words, those big liquidations, the margins selling or margin buying, depending which of those two commodities we're talking about, that on a leveraged contract is what gets you to a 460-point selloff, not the fear of ebola. but ebola does play on investor sentiment and confidence. and as you heard, a lot of people are not very confident that the cdc has properly set protocols for health care workers who might have treated somebody, like i said before, if they do that, mandy, i think they can address this and contain people that should not be in the general public because obviously if you're treating an ebola patient, you probably shouldn't be in the general
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public for the next 21 days or so. >> i mean, i would agree with dr. j. in terms of ebola. so far what we've seen is that it's very sort of calculated in terms of where the impact is. the xal is down 12%. we did get positive news out of delta essentially saying bookings are not impacted. that's why we're seeing the airline stocks rally. it does not help certainly in terms of having ebola as that sort of wild card out there. but you know, you see in the markets here, when the fed speaks, any sort of fed speak, whether it be janet yellen's leaked comments yesterday to james bullard today, it's like a rorschach test. people are looking at reasons why they should be taking profits off that record high in september and what it feels like right now is that they saw the small. kas, they sold that down. today is a technical bounce. the question is because as you know, a couple days does not make a twrend. the question is, is this trouble going to spread now to the large cap index? because if we look at the russell 1000 versus the 2000
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over the past week, the russell 1000 is down by more than 2%. the 2000 on that technical bounce is up 2%. so does this last? so is the trouble now brewing in large cap land? >> andre 3000 also did not sell as many records the last time around. >> the ebola impact is probably not measurable. it's not helpful. it's not helpful. i don't know why they just don't close down the trips for 21 days. that's what this guy said from the faa, monitoring it on a daily basis. i don't even know what that means. >> on a day-to-day basis. just do it, yeah. >> how do they do it, though? you tell a foreign airline they can't fly into the united states? >> we can certainly make the ban. >> we can -- >> we've banned flights into israel when they were fighting hamas. into liberia. >> we're talking about somebody moving from cleveland to dallas. what are you going to do, shut the roads down? this is an internal problem here in the united states. if you're going to say the cdc was lax and didn't do a good job, they didn't do a good job right here in our borders. >> i get that, okay?
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i think the public has lost confidence in the cdc and the government for that matter. >> completely. >> i'm just saying on the narrow issue of the airline, just close it down. that's all you have to do. but i don't think that's a gigantic stock market factor. others may disagree. i just want to say this. the drop in oil prices is, in my opinion, unambiguously good for the economy. unambiguously good for the economy. it's called a positive supply shock. and it's going to keep inflation down. it's going to keep growth up. it is absolutely good. when i look at the treasury curve, okay, the treasury curve is positive. that tells me there's no recession. when i look at the break-evens on inflation, there is no inflation. profits are rising. and the oil shock is positive and good. therefore, i am a buyer on all these tips. >> i'm going to push back on you a bit. >> please, push back. >> bullish on the economy for three years, on this show we've talked about hopium. most of the jobs we've created in the last three years have been in texas. i've been to midland.
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it's the wealthiest zip code by personal average household income in america. if oil goes down, the one state that's really been driving everything could get hurt. >> no. it's not -- it will get hurt at $40 a barrel. >> as low as $40? >> it will not get hurt at $80. it will not get hurt at $70. it will not get hurt at $65. by the way, the texas fields are among the most productive. >> and the most expensive if you're a new participant. >> wait, wait, wait. but baker hughes's ceo on the earnings call said today that below $75, that's going to be the trouble. right now it's still full steam ahead in terms of the customers. but he said $75 a barrel. so $40 may be sort of an outlier, but larry, i mean, we're talking $70, $75, we're talking $5 from where we are. >> baker hughes are being hired by the company to do stats. from new wells. not jane wells. >> i respect him very much. but if you talk to the guys in the fracking business, most of whom, by the way, are wildcatters and entrepreneurs.
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they can go a lot lower if they have to. look, this helps consumers. it's about $100 billion tax cut for consumers. it helps producers. it helps manufacturers. it helps the whole -- the whole cost structure of our economy is coming down. it keeps the inflation rate down. this is so totally pro-growth. now, i acknowledge that the energy producers will be the least of it. okay, i get that. but everybody else -- everybody else, unambiguously benefit. i think people have misread this positive oil shock, and i want to put in it's going to cause better growth and lower inflation. good for stocks. >> okay. >> i just wanted to push back a little says bit. you know what i paid for gas yesterday? $2.75 a gallon. >> $2.75? >> i was literally almost drinking it. it was that cheap. >> you're dead right. it also makes our manufacturers cheaper. >> more competitive. >> it makes us more competitive. let's not kid ourselves. >> unless the bear market in oil is being caused by lower economic growth around the world in which manufacturers can produce at a lower rate and
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cost, but we won't have the markets to sell to. >> of course you will. >> that's the issue. >> oil -- lower oil prices, melissa, helps europe, okay? do you get that? >> yeah. >> it helps europe. >> jon? >> by the way, lower oil prices is damaging russia. it is taking putin down by five or ten notches. the rouble is in a heap of trouble. the central bank of russia is having to put 40 or $50 billion to defend the rouble. it's going to shut putin up for a while and that's a good thing. it's going to help the european, american and asian economy. it is unambiguously good. >> on that note, we'll bring back our panel in just a second. we've got to earn a little money for the station and go to a kpes commercial break. advice on what you should be doing with your money right now. we'll have a five-star fund manager, a top-rated market strategist offering their wisdom. we've talked a lot about oil already, but you know what? crude is rallying today. you can see there it's at $82.58. it's up by about 1%.
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welcome back to "street signs." i'm jon fortt here in cupertino, california, with the apple launch, ipads. we've got but also imac with retina display, 5k display. that's starting at $2499. apple making an appeal toward the high end in the pc market. that's still moving on. also a new mac mini at the low end, now $499 with updated chips. covering its flank there, that's been a theme throughout this event. apple covering the flank at the low end with the ipad as well while reaching toward the high end with features. also we've got apple pay making its debut on monday. we've got yosemite from os 10, the new operating system, available today. ios 8.1 available on monday as well. new software features with iwork being updated and a slew more. so we'll continue to cover that for you here in cupertino, guys. back to you. >> jon, i just tweeted this out, okay? listen, i love imacs.
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i've been an apple fan boy since the '80s. 300 bucks. >> reporter: well, brian, remember, i said they're covering their flank. they've got that mac mini still at $499. they're keeping the other imac models around at lower prices. remember, they just released an imac at a cheaper price. >> i use a mac mini at home, but you've got to buy a monitor and a keyboard. the mac mini is just a box. >> reporter: that is true. so maybe an ipad is for you. i don't know. apple, they're protecting their margins here. investors should be happy about at least that. we'll see if they can keep the volumes as well in this market, brian. we'll get more from you very shortly, jon. you know, just don't go anywhere. we're only seconds away from the close of oil trading at the nymex. let's get straight to jackie deangelis for the settlement numbers. what are we looking at here? >> reporter: good afternoon, mandy. one trader just walked alongside
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me and declared the volatility is back in the energy pits. and certainly that is what we saw today along with a volatile equity session. let me recap where we started. under $80 a barrel which was fairly significant. then we rebounded a little bit. bearish sentiment this morning as we went into our inventory number. we got what we are expecting, 9 million barrels. then equities turned positive because traders thought that it was oversold. going into the close here, we're up about 75 cents. wtis trading at 82.55, but we were almost $3 positive at one point during the session. so the debate right now is are we at a bottom in oil, or do we go lower from here? a lot of traders are saying there's going to be volatility as we move forward, and you're going to see buying the dip mentality just like we saw today. we're going to see action track alongside of equities. but that we could still go lower from here. they're looking at the $75 range as a target right now. but it's interesting to see sort of the disparity of opinions in
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terms of what's happening down here. nobody could really call it. we all thought we had that bearish number on our hands. and then we got this massive, massive rally. some of the traders are saying this is a great way to make money. there's opportunity out there because of that volatility. other traders are saying they want to stay away from it right now because it's a little too hot to handle. guys, back to you. >> all right, jackie, thank you very much. joining us now is jim erio. jim, you might have heard our sort of fiery debate about oil a moment ago. i mean, listen, if it goes much lower, baker hughes saying they could be in trouble. do you think oil goes lower or higher from here? >> i don't think it goes much lower. when you look at the reasons oil is where it is, you talk about the strong dollar coming into this, and then all of a sudden we have global worries/deflation. we have ebola. we have the saudis not standing in the way because they want companies like baker hughes to feel the pain. they want to force some people out of it. and then we talk about the supply. in my opinion, you can't really think of many more reasons for
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oil to go on another leg lower unless, say, some new technology will make the combustion system antiquated which has kind of happened already with tesla and nobody seems to care. for me it's hard to get another ingredient in the move lower. it always seemed like 80 was going to be kind of a number that it was going to hone in on, and it did. if it gets to be 77, 78, that's where i thought i would buy it just on kind of initially what would be a countertrend move. and as it happens, we'll see where it goes from there. >> jim, what i don't understand -- i have no disagreements with your technical view. i don't know technical stuff. what i don't understand is during this market correction -- and corrections come and go -- people are bearish on the fact that oil prices are coming down. and i've never heard such a dumb thing in my life. i mean, one of the reasons this has been a mediocre lousy recovery is $100 oil. if it goes to $80, the savings, the competitiveness, the improvement for consumers and for business is massive. it's huge. i'm surprised with the fracking
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increase over the last several years, this didn't happen sooner. >> larry, this is amazing that people can't differentiate. people take -- they look at oil cascading lower, and they realize that the reasons for that might be dark and bad. but they can't separate out the fact that as -- every time it gets lower, it does a great thing for the economy. in this country alone, per head in this country, we use 400 gallons of gas per year. that's pumping a lot of money back into the economy which with cheaper oil. not just here but in europe as you said as well. we just have to differentiate through the two different factors. >> that's a good point, the differentiation between supply and demand. when the iaea came out with its revision, all they did was mark down consumption by 0.2%. that was it. it's nothing. it's almost uncountable. this is a supply shock because we are producing a couple of million barrels of oil more than we used to in recent years.
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supply shocks are great. it's not a demand shock. people misread that. and maybe you and i are going to have to go -- we'll do a piece, we'll do supply curves and demand curves. >> yes. >> they are different. >> there is no doubt about it. and when we thought that crude was going lower strictly because of the strong dollar, then we could make an argument that on balance, that might be slightly negative for the big exporters. but we've gotten to a point where it doesn't seem like the dollar matters anymore. why can't we just enjoy the benefit and not worry about companies that are going to export? because it's not affecting them right now. >> two quick things, okay? because i've got to chime in here. all right? >> you must. >> number one, oil still ain't cheap. it was 44 bucks a barrel ten years ago. inflation adjusted, maybe 60 would be equivalent. so it's cheaper, but it ain't cheap. number two, having been to williston and midland and the eagleford shale and everywhere else, i can say one thing unequivocally. it doesn't matter how much darn
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oil we produce if there's no way to get it to market, okay? i'm not going to bring up the keystone pipeline, but we could make widgets all day long, and if there's no roads or bridges, it don't matter how much we make. >> they're railroading and trucking it but you're quite right. i agree with that, too, we need pipeline infrastructure. in the 1990s, we had a boom in the 1990s in the economy and in the stock market. >> i remember that. >> the average price of oil was about $25 a barrel. the average price of gasoline was in the neighborhood of $1.25 a gallon. so don't tell me they've gone from $100 to $80 or to your gasoline point, from 4 bucks to $2.75. do not tell me that isn't good. i mean, there may be 1,000 reasons for this correction. i'm not an expert. >> hey, in saudi arabia, they pay a nickel a gallon. >> for god's sakes, it is terrific. i'd like to see it go to $70 for heaven's sakes. $60. it will help the economy. who are we kidding here? and as i said before, it hurts our enemy.
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>> yeah. >> who is our enemy? putin. putin. >> mr. putin. >> breaking news. let's hurt putin. >> we're going to give you your hopium badge. you, too, jim, by the way, since you're both fairly bullish. we'll give you your badges after the show. thank you very much for joining us. larry, you're always welcome on "street signs." thank you. jim cramer, by the way, is about to give us his take on oil, ebola, whatever else he basically wants to. "street signs" will be right back. don't go away. when change is in the air you see things in a whole new way. it's in this spirit that ing u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. one that helps you think differently about what's ahead, and what's possible when you get things organized. ing u.s. is now voya. changing the way you think of retirement.
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to your mobile with no interruptions. i've never felt so alive. get the future of phone and the phones are free. comcast business. built for business. all right. welcome back to "street signs." 2:39 eastern time. it's been a wild day again. so let's welcome in the mad man, jim cramer. jim, you've been working, first off, thank you, because you've been working harder than you usually work, which is really hard. >> thank you. >> i'm going to be -- i'm just going to hold my hand up. everybody on tv tries to sound smart and pretend they're a genius. i don't know what the hell's going on. >> look, i think that we've been -- i have a checklist of things that need to go right. and we have a couple of them today. you had a great debate just now about oil. and i think that oil needs to be -- i like larry's view, of course, but the energy renaissance that you've been to, we don't want that cutback.
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>> destroy that. and a lot of jobs. >> 16 states that have great job growth. what do they have in common? >> oil. >> they have oil. >> oil. >> forecast. >> or natural gas. by the way, which is interesting because chesapeake went up big when they sold those properties. >> chesapeake, the largest gainer on the s&p today. >> but this is what the market looks like when there's no ebola news. and there's no russia news. this is what it looks like. >> what do you mean by there's no ebola news? we're still getting ebola news. >> okay, no really terrible today. >> not like yesterday's terrible ebola news. >> the government was out there, they were saying some things. maybe somebody feels reassured. i think we all know here that if we got bad ebola news in the next hour and a half, the market would reverse. it's very event driven. i hear -- i read through what putin has been saying. and i think that he's basically saying, listen, i'm going to cut the natural gas off. that would be recession. so we've got a little break. in the negative action today. and it allows you to buy snap-on tool or united health. allows you to take a hard look
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at hca and decide the quarter was good. >> snap-on tool? >> that's one of my favorite companies. >> why? >> because it's a technology company that's involved with hardware. it's really amazing. i have them on every quarter. they're such a midwestern company. >> a broad macro, since everybody is out there trying to pick up auto, are you trying to pick up auto? >> i'd like to see ebola a little more under control. i'd like to see europe be a little bit better. i don't like these situations where you wake up and the futures are up 5 and then carl quintanilla tweets something. the neck thing i know, it's down 25. the go work out and the bopds are flat and then interest rates are higher. i like when interest rates are lower. i don't like a market where it goes higher and interest rates go higher because that's not good. one of the things that's interesting is wells fargo is out there tweeting, i see you on twitter, saying that the refis are big. the people who missed it last time are back. and i think that's good. fannie mae is telling me, look, you've got to hit this home. these interest rates have really come down.
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i don't want to be a totally counterintuitive guy, but i don't want rates to fly back up. >> well, no one does, no. >> but i think we're event driven. >> what are the odds of that? >> that would be something. i listen to all these people who say that the fed should be tightening. >> i know i'm going against every story on every major market site and reporters i respect, but i'm with rick, actually. i don't believe bullard is moving the market today. he's not a voting member. not even next year. so unless he's having mai tais with janet yellen and knows something. >> we did see a tick higher in the markets. whether or not it's justified or not, i get your point. it's not like he is the spokesman for the fed. but still, jim, we've got to leave it there. >> kind of a wacky comment. he's a bit of an outlier, that guy. >> jim, thank you for joining us. thank you for stopping by. now to a segment we do every single day, it is called "talking numbers." let's take a look not at a number but at the vix, the volatility index. rich ross on the technicals.
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david sieberg on the fundamentals. daid, the vix briefly last couple days ago, whatever, went up to the highest since 2011. how concerned are you about the vix, and how concerned are you that the vix will portend, second use of that word in the show, a decline further in equities? >> well, look, i think that rush to protect right now. i mean, you started last week, last thursday and saw it move up. it sort of grinded higher. really saw a big move yesterday. i think what people really many is is yesterday's big move, the market moved down massively because there was big derisking based on the situation. the breakdown on that deal put the hurt on a lot of funds. so there was a massive derisking going on. you saw the vix spike. 15%ish roughly yesterday. it was a massive move. you know, it's reverting. it comes back in slower, much slower than it goes up. so it speaks up generally and then pulls back in and grinds lower. i think it's going to revert back to the levels we saw in
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probably the high teens or so over the next, you know, week or so. i don't think it's going to go on a straight-up trajectory. i think it's going to work its way back lower, again, right around to the high teens. i think in general, we saw the protection put on. we saw it put on, you know, starting last thursday and a lot of protection put on, you know, earlier this week. don't forget we got an expiration this friday. there's been a lot of rolls. i think in general going into next week, most of that protection's going to be in place. and i'm pretty comfortable about that. yeah, i say the vix grinds back down toward the high teens. >> we're going to get -- thank you, david -- we'll get rich ross's view in just a second. i do want to give an important promotion for cnbc. lloyd blankfein, ceo of goldman sachs, will be live on cnbc. we are just getting word at 4:30. carl quintanilla somehow tracked him down. an exclusive interview at goldman sachs builders and innovators summit. 4:30 eastern time. just getting word, carl quintanil
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quintanilla, he's like the bear gryllz. apparently a well-attended summit. they'll be on at 4:30 today. back to rich ross and talk a few numbers here. of course, we were talking the vix just seconds ago. and david, you were telling us you think over the next week or so we could come back to the high teens with 20 being around the historical average. rich, what are the charts telling us about where the vix goes from here? >> mandy, i'd love to tell you that the bottom is in equities, but what i'm seeing in the vix is in contrast to what david just saysed. i think we'll see a further spike in volatility and another leg down in equities. let's bring up the charts. i'll show you exactly why. first in the short term, you see this textbook-based breakout from a 12-month rounded base of support above that key neckline at 20. that's very bullish for volatility and bearish for equities. and this is your big concern here. the longer-term chart of the vix, you see this textbook breakout once again from a multiyear base of support. back above that 200-week moving average for the first time in
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over three years. keep in mind i want you to watch that 48 level, mandy. that coincides with the two previous spikes in the vix. in 2010/2011. those coincided with declines in the s&p 500 of 17 and 21% respectively. so we could only be halfway to the bottom for this current move. i'm very concerned that volatility is going to continue to rise. and equities will continue to fall here in the very short term. >> okay. a bit of a bearish view there from rich ross and david sieberg, thuf very much for joining us. a quick break here on cnbc. stay with us. you're watching "street signs." tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 even on the go. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd# 1-800-345-2550 300 commission-free online trades. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so if you get a trade idea, schwab can help you take it on. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're getting a lot of questions tdd# 1-800-345-2550 about organic food stocks. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] sharpen your instincts tdd# 1-800-345-2550 with in-depth analysis by schwab experts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and if you want to run your idea
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all right. look at that. that is a big cnbc exclusive. it is just under two hours from now. it is lloyd blankfein. it is with carl quintanilla. quintanilla. i've gotten 72 tweets and e-mails because said quintanilla. i love carl. i never call him by his last name. i grew up in san diego and i still screwed it up. carl, if you're out there, next time i see you, buddy, i will wash your hair.
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>> you called you sillivan. >> he calls me scully from the "x files." >> that's right. you must have heard him. let's do some hard money and take a look at gold which is trading near its highest in over a month. let's bring up our board and bo you gold is up to currently sitting ever so slightly to the downside of 1240. down by about four bucks an ounce. after a particularly bruising few days, the market here, a bit of optimism from a large hedge fund manager in the midwest, ken griffin. kate kelly got his take on the recent volatility and joins us now. kate keely, how you doing? >> doing well, silly, sully, i mean. anyway, ken griffin thinks that even though we have been through a couple of rough days here for sure, a lot of what's going on in the markets is really just traders being distracted essentially by noise, you know, concerns of macroweakness, for instance, outside of the u.s., not that it's a non-issue, but not a new issue. he thinks the growth story here is really pretty much intact. and what we are experiencing
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really is a disappointment, he said, in the gap between expectation and reality more than anything else. well, what does he mean by that specifically? new signs of weakness in peripheral europe. fierce of underwhelming growth in japan and a long period of what he called very, very immediate yoke irgrowth in the developed economies, all dragging market sentiment down. he said the u.s. economy is relatively strong and expects to see an interest rate hike by the fed relatively soon, didn't put a date on it but said it is a question of when, not if. one overarching concern would be the impact of u.s. policy though, he said, and certainly a monetary tightening specifically on other economies, so he senses that's one thing the fed is grappling with now here is his other reason for optimism, energy. cheap gas, he says is a healthy form of qe. this is money right in the pockets of the american family to spend on goods and service and not at the pump, right in time for the holidays. so that all-important retail sales quarter. he also predicted that natural gas will be really cheap this winter because of inventory that
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was built up over the summer and the market seems to have regained a little bit of confidence, brian and mandy. so perhaps, you know, he is on to something so far today. >> all right. kate, thank you very much. >> thank you. so, any time is a good time to review your investment bus now probably an even better time. so we have got a fund manager and a top strategist to give you their best advice, coming up. >> why are you looking sheepish? you're still smarting from -- >> i have never said anything -- said so many wrong, dumb things and mispronouncing carl's last name is the most wrongliest and dumberest thing i have ever said. and we are going. let's go to a break. >> okay a break. today could be the day. the day we give you hope. relief. a cure. today,
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thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises.
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>> if we do finish lower on the dow, be the sixth straight loss, which will be the biggest losing streak of 2014. we really have not had a losing streak like that since last year, but of course, anything could change. sometime got a little bit of time left before the markets close. we certainly do a little bit of time before carl kin tequintani interview with larry blankfein. barbara, i'm sure your clients have been -- i say ring your phone off the hook, i don't know if anybody actually calls, whatsapping you, whatever. what are your clients asking and you what are you telling them? >> clients are asking us where is the bottom to this equity market and we feel as though the financial markets are pricing in too much pessimism on economic growth. >> i mean, absolutely, when you see, for example, the ten-year yield dipping below 2%, you hear people start talking about, well that indicates a recession. we are so far from a recession, respect we, barbara? >> yeah, you take a look at the
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st. louis fed probability of a recession indicator, it stand at 0.3%, we say there's very little probability of a recession and two points that are really pointing toward better growth is the u.s. is starting a much better point than it was to handle some of the shocks in the rest of the world and had a 12 1/2% decline in retail gasoline prices in the past three months and we also think that the strength of the u.s. dollar will work to redistribute growth far more evenly on a global basis. >> barry, we have seen a lot of hand wringing the last few day yet when was the last time we actually had anything that resembled a correction? it's been a very long time. we have become lazy, complacent, maybe even a little bit greedy. maybe this is a healthy thing. >> yeah, like over 800 days since a 10% correction. and the thing that we are going through right now is kind of normal, volatility, actually. you should expect a 10% or more correction each and every year. it's kind of like flying a
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plane. i used to fly fighters. get into a crisis, number one thing, keep flying the plane. folks watching need not to panic because price is going down, or do something because prices are gone down. go back to their discipline, follow their discipline a great time to upgrade your portfolio, finally something you wanted to buy has gone down enough in price it becomes very attractive, could you do that. the other thing is not to look backward but look forward. the forward part is we are leaving quantitative easing, that's probably the biggest reason why we are having this volatility, because the market the last two times we ended quantitative easing had big dives. so, what we have currently is a chance to change over from the big wall street darling stocks to the unloved, ignored stocks that have great evenings, good dividends and buying back shares. that's what we are doing. that's not easy to find. somebody says, hey, give me a good company at a low valuation, that's safe, and is gonna -- that's your job, barry, so, give us some -- gimme, game mir, gimme. >> i can give you three off the top of my head. well, we would say beck tram
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would be a good one. a utility. it is in the ohio area. does a lot of natural gas. good dividend is paying. another one would be kroger's, again, all going to the store, spending our money there. and they are doing some very nice expansion. and then capital one's really able to take good advantage of these decreases in interest rates and that's one thing i would also say. we haven't -- we don't think we have seen the low in interest rates yet, we say 2014 is the year of the bond and still more money to be made in bonds. >> you know, it's very difficult to pick a bottom, right, very difficult to get things exactly right when it comes to timing, but what would be some of the catalysts you think to put in a bottom for the market? >> we think that this selloff that we have been in is probably one quarter fundamental and three-quarters technical. so, we are watching things like our credit swisse hedge fund positioning data, actually at a four-year low. also looking the our credit suisse appetite index, isn't in panic levels yet but certainly moving toward oversold and also
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taking a look at the american association for individual investors, and that's also getting down toward oversold levels. >> barry, barbara, unfortunately, ending our show, leave you there thank you for your time today. >> thank you. >> all right. kelly evans, scott walker gonna pick up all this market coverage on "closing bell", starting now. >> indeed. stick around. you are watching cnbc. over to you guys. >> thanks, brian and man ditch i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange, with scott wapner. long day. >> scott wapner in for bill griffeth. another big day of huge swings in the stock market. started the day down 200 points on the dow, back into green shortly after noon. bounced back and forth for a few hours now, how many times do we have to tell you, never know what's gonna happen in the final hour, never was that more true than over the past several days and weeks. >> the market's weakening again. the dow off 53 points, well off the lows of the session, we were down 206. but we were in the green just a few minutes ago. so, again, we are going to have to watch things like the russell, things like the nasdaq, which is o

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