tv Fast Money CNBC October 16, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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it has to come from a lot of these -- >> good, i'm sure it will then. that's one place we can count on. >> if you continue to see spreads, especially on really high grade debt not come back in, then we have a problem. >> we'll leave it right there, everybody. thank you so much. this hour on "closing bell." "fast money" begins. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, this is "fast money." i'm mel sa lee. steve grasso, jon najarian, karen finerman and brian kelly. the conference call for goiogle is under way. an ugly day for netflix. remember when rich greenfield cam on the show after upgrading the stock. >> netflix is competing every night for your time and attention. do you turn on the dial and turn on the traditional television or do you click on netflix?
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the more netflix wins those moments of truth, the more that they're going to drive their overall subscriber base. >> well, he's back, and he's here to defend that $600 price target but we start with another volatile day on wall street. the dow has suffered six straight days in the red and has lost nearly 900 points but stocks fighting back after an early morning sell-off with the s&p, nasdaq, and russell closing higher on the day. the small caps are actually up 3% this week. so is this it? is the selling over? brian kelly, do you feel better now? >> today i feel better than i did the last couple days. that being said, we could have some kind of a bear market rally but i don't think this is necessarily over. potentially sentiment. remember when we had that alibaba and everybody was seeks i had, there was all that greed in the market. today felt like we were close to the sentiment bottom. i think if we get one or two days without another ebola diagnosis hopefully, then i
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would say you're near the bot m bottom. >> if you look at it on the s&p, we didn't even close above those lows for last couple days. it was 1871, 1874. so for me i think you do need a couple days without an ebola headline because i think that was the one that broke the camels back. if we get that, if we don't get those awful headlines, a couple days below this is not terrible damage, but you got to be above that 200-day which is 1905. we're 50 handles away from there. that's crucial to be above that. >> no ebola but some would argue you need good big cap earnings and google certainly doesn't help. dr. j, what were you doing today? >> i was buying selectively, mel, throughout the day and through the tail end of yesterday, too. and that's because we did have that confluence of the washout in the bond bears as well as the oil bulls, and i think that, that margin selling, that's a capitulation clue that we are very close, and we had it from
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both of those two commodities. doesn't mean that the bonds can't go lower or that crude oil -- or the bornds can't go higher and crude oil can't go lower but i thought that was the washout we needed. then we threw ebola in for a little spice and that really did get people accelerated into the sell side yesterday. >> karen, you were actually buying today. >> yes, buying today, buying a little yesterday. today we bought some bank of america. we bought some gap stores, which was excessively overdone two weeks ago. the new ceo, bought some jpmorgan calls. we had bought some -- the sox etf which we actually sold. so i feel like the worst is over. not that it can't happen again, but i feel like the panicky feeling seems gone today. the vix is indicative of that. >> the wor scattered showers over for just the short term market. do you feel the worst is over and we're going to new highs? >> i don't know. i do think there's stuff out
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there that's good, that's really good, and i manitowoc. >> if you were looking for the 10% sell-off, you got it. yesterday you saw that 18, 20 print, that was close enough. we're at 2019 in the s&p cash. so you got that basic 10% sell-off. problem is if you look at the marketplace right now, how many funds to john's point, you have been talking about this a lot, have to really liquidate their positions? you saw the emergency stocks that have been under water. you saw them lead. you saw utilities be sold off. i think it's a day trade right now. it's crucial tomorrow, monday, tuesday that this market fights its way back. if it doesn't, it's a trend change, and then we're looking at a 1600 in the s&p, yes, 1600 in the s&p cash, not going back to old highs. >> and mel, real quick, we looked at that chart of the dax, the german index, folks, for those who don't follow it as closely. when you see a 300-point swing in an index that's half the
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price of our index here, in other words that's an 8,000 point index and you saw a 300-point swing from the lows to the highs and it finished on the highs today, that's another sign you may have seen a little bit of that washout that, again, from a health standpoint with the market, you'd expect to see that and the clearing afterwards. >> let's get back to google here falling in the afterhours session. the conference call is under way. morgan brennan has been listening and joins us with the highlights. morgan? >> the call is still very much going on, but here are some of the highlights so far. google's executive saying they continue to be happy with their strong operating cash flow of $6 billion, that cap ex for the quarter was $2.4 billion, the majority of that related to data center production, construction equipment, and real estate purchases. the biggest news so far on the call, officially the chief business office on a permanent basis no, longer an interim basis, now back in that position full time. he was on the call.
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continues to be on the call. some of the other headlines, the core of their business, performance advertising continues to deliver strong results. talking about how that segue's nicely into their shopping platform and this concept of connecting consumers with retails to make purchases through google and create a delivery service to bring those products to consumers. talking about youtube saying that it's just getting started, that they've sold out of google preferred offering in the u.s. and they're expanding that to certain markets overseas. talking about the new deal with m monday lez. they say motor rola had a good and strong headlines. >> thank you, morgan. let's bring in neil, the co-head of technology and media at crt capital. good to have you with us. >> thanks, melissa.
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first want to get through the two metrics i think investors are focusing on the most, and that is paid click growth as well as cpcs. how do you -- i feel like, you know, one was a little better than expected, one was a little less. how do you sus that out? >> cpcs was a nice surprise. it was down 2% versus down 6%. that seems to show they are closing the gap between mobile and desktop. the paid to click deceleration was a little worse than expected. we were expecting in the low 20%. you put the two together it still leads to a relatively healthy business. overall revenue was growing, 19% if you factor in for foreign exchange. still below kind of the 20%-plus range they have been growing for the past 18 quarters, but 19% is still very healthy on a $16 billion revenue run rate. so we think that it is a modest miss but still a pretty decent quarter they posted. >> neil, earlier on in the week we saw google get sold off after
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hours. is something bigger brewing behind the scenes with institutional investors. are people worried about mar begins goimargins going forward? >> that's a great question. you know, i think margins have been coming down pro forma nongap operating margin was 38%, the lowest we've seen in a long time. you have some investors worried about margins. in the other camp there are some investors worried about the european commission and what potential overhang that could put on the stock. if google can't figure out a way to kind of work with them, and, you know, that brings flashbacks to microsoft and, you know, people don't want to deal with another five or ten-year long lawsuit. i think there's two camps of institutional investors that are worried. one is on the margins, one is on overhang from a long, drawn out
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legal battle. >> it's karen. i, like you, am bullish and, sadly, long, but what can you do? looking at it just from here, what is it you have to your model? how do you get to where your target is? how quickly could we see that? >> we are modeling for a continued deceleration into the high teens growth for revenue over the next couple years, and, you know, i think if these guys can continue to execute and hopefully, you know, we'll see mobile start to click up and cpcs start to flip from negative to positive, i think that could drive incremental upside from here. so i think there's probably another couple quarters we could see some nice improvements on the cpc side which could drive nice revenue upside over time. >> neil, thank you for your time. neil doshi, crt capital. grasso, you bought into this earnings release. >> i averaged a little bit. i was hopeful. i knew it could go either way,
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but google has a history of trading down and then blasting higher. the overall market does better, this one will, too. cpcs went from down 9% to down 6% to down 2%. i'm looking for that to level off. i think you will see a six under handle from google if the market cooperates. >> paid click number up nearly 20% year-over-year. that's a good sign. to steve's point, having the cost per click and that diminishment coming from 9% down to just 2% loss, that's not scary either. so i don't view any of the numbers that they released today as scary, and i don't think the stock is scaring too many people. >> but their business is decelerating. that's what they're telling you. their paid clicks are decelerating. >> this was their big quarter though, b.k. not the one over the summer. >> let's separate this from wall street and the business. so the business seems to be doing fine. over time, whether or not it's going to be 17% or 25%. but the wall street expectations
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built into the stock are that this business is going to be accelerating. there's going to be a certain growth rate. so you get one more quarter like this, you get any type of deceleration, and that growth story is gone. so for me 525 is the pivot point. if you break through that, you got to pull the parachute and get out of it. >> you're saying get out of it now. >> it's at 525. i would give myself a point or two ish room. >> we'll have more on whether the market volatility is skoming to an end. plus apple unveiling two ipads but investors don't seem too excited about it. we'll debate whether apple has lost its magic truck. and netflix getting crushed as hbo and showtime look to standalone services. is the netflix run over? not according to rich greenfield? he's next on "fast." tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops,
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however it's net income fell due to higher expenses. you can see shares down by we'll call it 2% in extended hours trading. then advance microdevices, am d posting weeker than expected third quarter earnings and sales. it plans to cut its workforce as 7% as part of a restructuring plan. those shares down 5% in afterhours trading. back over to you guys. >> thanks so much, dom chu. dr. j, take your pick, sandisk or amd? >> sandisk because i love their flash memory and solid state drives but i really like what i'm seeing here. chips are going two different directions. this is programmable chips, not the flash memory chips that sandisk is or the hard drives that amd is. xi link is just screaming. it was up 2.5%, up 5% in after hours. >> shares of netflix tanking
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following last night's disappointing earnings report which showed subscriber growth slowing. rich greenfield upgraded the stock to a buy earlier this week. listen to what he had to say on monday's "fast money." >> every media company you could basically name, they need to figure out new ways to make money and generate profit. the answer is increasingly licensing content. everybody wants and needs netflix's money. better and better content is making it more attractive from a subscriber standpoint and to the point you want to pay more for it. >> joining us now to defend the call is rich greenfield, media and tech analyst. great to have you with us. on twitter i notice you tweeted something to the effect of the call may have been early but you're still sticking by it. in the marketplace being early is essentially the equivalent of being wrong. i'm throwing that out there because you're a good sport, rich. >> sure. >> if people followed you in they're down 20% at the get-go. so what do you have to say to
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them? >> well, i'd say first off this is a stock that i kick myself when it was at $60 for not putting a buy on it. looking at the underlying trends. and i think the comment you just played, you played a clip from monday night talking about everyone needing to sell content to netflix and the content getting better and better. look what happened just yesterday. time warner got on the stage and kevin, who runs warner bros. announced they are licensing every episode of "friends" starting january 1st to netflix. the content keeps getting better and better. i think the mistake we made in looking back was that when you raise price there is no free lunch, and there was clearly an impact from raising price. it slowed gross editions. the content we were talking about in terms of all the recent content they're licensing got them coming online, doing adam sandler movies, "friends" yesterday. the content hasn't launched yet. the reality is there's a sticker shock from the initial price increase on new subs coming in. as you improve the content and, remember, the whole world is going to streaming. hbo is going over the top, cnbc
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is going over the top. >> i was going to ask you about that. since you made that call, hbo is going to do a standalone service. what's to stop these providers with not going with netflix as a distribution vehicle and doing it themselves. >> i think hbo going direct is the best news that's happened in a long time for netflix. going over the top for hbo and even seeing cn in in in in ing morning. it's not going to be a full featured product. the bottom line is the more break down in the bundle there is, the better it is for netflix because it frees up dollars. think about it. in order to get hbo today you have to spend $75. if you don't have to spend $75 on a video bundle and you can just get broadband and hbo, that frees up more dollars also to put towards net flikts. i don't think this is about hbo competing with net flix like i don't think hbo is competing
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with showtime. there's a lot of dollars that can flow towards both of these companies. what we do know consumers want to stream. families want to stream anywhere, anytime, and right now the best product on the market, the most widely available and easieiest to use a netflix. maybe they need to add more content before they can actually raise the price significantly, but just bear in mind, in q4 on a base of 37 million domestic subs, they're going to add almost 2 million more subs. hbo is still at 30. >> rich, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> rich greenfield, btig. for rich the story has not changed. >> the story is over. >> over. >> it's over for netflix p.. this is aol in the '90s. it was the easy way to get into the internet. then everybody started to cut out the middle man. netflix is the middle man. i wouldn't touch this stock with
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grasso's money. >> nor would i with grasso's money because he would beat you if you tried to do anything with his money. but as far as this one, netflix is a consolidator of all this different nonexclusive properties that they have. "friends" is going to be an example of an exclusivity they have. there's no reason you can't have nbc, cbs, abc as well as time warner out there pushing content for $6 a month but then add them all up and it's a heck of a lot more than netflix. the one stop shop is still netflix. but as i said earlier, i think the stock has a little more to go before -- >> to the downside. >> jon najarian gets interested. >> you want it lower before you'll buy? >> i think more around the $300 handle rather than up here at $350. >> coming up, apple unveiling several new ipads and launching the -- announcing the launch for its much hyped apple pay. that's next. later, everyone is watching
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the volatility in the u.s. markets. b.k. has his eye on one country that could have big problems of its own. stay tuned. from record-breaking highs to major market meltdowns. every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades. serving up in depth analysis and actionable advice. >> bear market rallies can be huge rippers. >> to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> and these stocks have been annihilated. >> this is "fast money." >> this could give you a huge opportunity for a trading bounce. >> have a markets question for the "fast money" traders, tweet us @cnbcfastmoney. i have saved $75 in checked bag fees. priority boarding is really important to us. you can just get on the plane and relax. i love to travel, no foreign transaction fees means real savings. we can go to any country and spend money the way we would in the us. when i spend money on this card i can see brazil in my future. i use the explorer card to
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because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. the "fast money" -- again welcome back to "fast money." we're watching shares of sarepta therapeutics. share are up 25%. the company has just announced a test result showing one of their experimental ebola drugs have shown no clinically significant side effects in that its ebola therapy was successful in fighting off the disease in 60% to 80% of primates in earlier tests of the drug. so, again, sarepta therapeutics
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up about 6% in the afterhours trade on some positive test results for one of their experimental ebola drugs. a couple other news items, first of all, we've been following closely the yale student that had been undergoing tests for possible ebola. we now know from the university's chief medical officer that the student has tested negative for ebola. so, again, that connecticut student at yale testing for ebola came back negative. no ebola found there. also that the white house, president barack obama, has called up certain active reservists in the military to active duty to help combat the ebola virus in africa. so, again, the connecticut student at yale negative for ebola. president obama calling up reservists to active duty to help fight ebola in africa. back over to you guys, melissa. >> thanks so much, dom chu. you were in sarepta specifically. >> and i thought yesterday was the day to sell it. i was obviously wrong, but the
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ebola play is much like the sars play that played out a decade ago. i thought it hit the zenith yesterday, but this is good news for the company and for those suffering with the disease that they're getting this primate study advance. so more power to them. >> there's a treatment or a vaccine? >> it's a treatment. yeah. apple falling 1% after unveiling two new ipads during the product event. cnbc's josh lipton is live from cuperti cupertino, california, with the latest. josh? >> well, melissa, we know ipad sales have been disappointing wall street recently. 9% drop in the most recent reported quarter, so the question for investors is whether these new ipads can really reverse that trend. so two new ipads unveiled today. the ipad air 2 is faster, it's about 20% thinner. it does come with an improved camera. also importantly touch i.d. and compatibility with apple pay. it starts at $499.
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the ipad mini 3 will start at $399 and both those ipads will ship next week. apple executives say they also talked a lot about the new operating systems, ios 8 and yosemite, the mac operating system. they stress the feature they call continuity meaning you can start a task like writing an e-mail on one device and finish it on another. you can deepen broaden that ecosystem. and a new mac with retina display. you can see the applications for editors and photographers. tim cook saying this is the best lineup of products that apple has ever had. now, we'll see whether consumers agree. melissa, back to you. >> thanks so much, josh lipton. interesting intraday action in terms of apple shares because right after the event the stock hit its intraday low and also wrap this together with the fact that mega caps or large caps in this market at least today, yesterday, the past week have been underperforming. the smaller cap section of the
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market. with all of this said, b.k., how are you feeling aboutapple? >> i feel meh about apple. we said they will probably trade sideways. on the ipads, they do have an issue there. the only thing that probably keeps the stock up with that is the fact that the ipods -- remember everybody talked about the demise of those -- they actually sold pretty well afterwards. for me i think between $94 and $102, that's where we trade until probably the holiday season. >> what do you think here? >> i kind of agree. >> you're wrong and you're feeling mmeh. >> apple has hung in there pretty well. today was a little bigger move than we've seen. i like the strategy selling calls against. we don't have the date yet on the iphone 6. >> should we be concerned it's 5 1/2 inches and the mini is 7.9
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inches. >> this is the new one and it is enormous and i'm happy to say that on air. additionally this particular device -- >> awful. children. >> this particular device does steal the ipad mini thunder. it truly does and i don't know why you'd have both. >> thank you. >> it's been treated like a utility. when the market was selling off, this was hovering above the 100 day moving average. i think if the market starts to ride, this one is okay. if the market standards to slip, people actually run to think for safety. >> more news on sandisk. check in with.com with t dom wi details. >> the last time we brought you an update on sandisk. shares are now down again about double 3%. what happened is they came out with their expectations for fourth quarter revenue. the expectations for fourth quarter revenue for sandisk is a range of between $1.8 billion to
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$1.85 billion. that's below the $1.88 billion average analyst estimates for forecast to q4 revenues. that's why those shares again have now more than doubled their losses. now down 7% in the aftermarket session. jurs just an update on the forecast for sales. back over to you. >> thanks so much, dom chu. interesting. since it's decline in july, sandisk was really setting up for a nice trade. people believe there is so much more demand for memory. >> that actually concerns me. we just talked about apple. this is the type of catalyst b.k. might look at and say i might think about going short apple. if sandisk earnings were great because apple phones were great and then now they're guiding lower, it stands to reason that apple might have some problems. >> coming up next, what does goldman saks ceo lloyd blankfein have to say about the market
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volatility? we'll find out after this. plus, are the charts pointing to nur leg lower or are the sells coming to an end? that's next. [ bell rings ] hi michael! looking good! trying to keep up with you! i told my producer karen that i take metamucil because it helps me feel fuller between meals. it's just one small change that can help lead to good things. now she's breaking up with the vending machine. nope. i call that the meta effect. [ female announcer ] 4-in-1 multi-health metamucil now clinically proven
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welcome back to "fast money." here is what's coming up next. another volatile day on wall street today, but we've got someone who says there is a sign the sell-off is coming to an end. and goldman sachs shares falling despite beating analysts' expectations. plus as oil breaks its losing streak today, one trader is making a big bullish bet on one energy name. we'll tell you what that is next. and we start off here with goldman sachs. the final firm holing its third annual builders and innovators summit in santa barbara, california. carl is at the conference and sat down with lloyd blankfein. he joins us for, i believe, carl, your first ever "fast money" appearance. welcome to the show. >> i think we had to build the chyron just for me, melissa. we are here at the builders and innovators conference. i know you have probably been over the quarter which was a pretty nice beat. it's been called one of the better earnings reports of the season so far, but, of course,
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with the shift in sentiment this week and the cfo of goldman, harvey schwartz, on the conference call calling wednesday a painful day. one of the first questions we posed, hedge funds, poorly positioned on oil, poorly positioned on rates. how much of this week's selling was driven by firms in serious pain on wednesday? here is what blankfein had to say. >> like all of us who have survived crises, we learn the lessons and we take them with us. i would say the risk management skills are there. this is a big event. it's not -- it's a one-day ev t event. if these things go on for a long time, it could be worse. there was a lot of paring of positions which is responsible for the big move and the near record flows we've seen in some of these markets, but i wouldn't get hyperbolic about it. >> also touched on some of the longer term challenges to the market, guys. ebola, for instance. he said he's worried not so much about the virus but of the virus of fear as he called it, and he
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also took an opportunity to needle some of those fed critics who for so long said the fed was feeding inflation. obviously singing a much different tune right now. we'll have more with lloyd blankfein tomorrow on "squawk on the street." we'll talk to david solomon, the co-head of investment banking and george lee who heads up -- he's the chair of tech media and telecom and coming off of that netflix report and google's report tonight it will be interesting to she whhear what to say. >> of course, for lloyd, the pain is felt in hedge fund land right now but longer time if volatility remains elevated, that's good for trading. how does he balance that out in terms of the plus and minus to go goldman's results? >> absolutely the right point. that was a large source of the strength of the third four quas the fact that things are finally moving up and down. goldman has some activity to leverage. remember, it wasn't too long ago we were all talking about the inverse of that and goldman warning about this flattish action that was making being an investment bank very difficult. also on europe, we said, look,
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is europe going to go into deflation? he clearly says the u.s. is half a cycle ahead, and also pointed to some of the political challenges that europe has just getting everybody to agree on whatever they're going to do. he did have more of a cautionary note for what's happening in europe, and that's been a large part of the bear case this week. >> all right. thank you, carl. by the way, you're welcome on "fast" anytime. >> thanks, guys. >> carl quintanilla from slauan barbara. karen, you bought some banks. >> i did. yesterday there was a very strong reaction after -- well, all of the moves, but primarily the bond move, and it just seems overdone to me. we bought some calls in jpmorgan. we bought some bank of america. we bought some bank of america calls. i think it was just really an excessive reaction yesterday. >> time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day. a pop for united rentals, up 7%. karen? >> yeah. this has been a difficult week, today very good earnings for
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united rentals. the story is very much intact. it's very much a north america story, the utilization is good, the margin is good. they're optimistic about their business. it was providing a little -- also for hertz. >> big move for chesapeake energy, up 17%. dr. j. >> selling out some utica shale assets or all of their utica shale assets perhaps for $5.4 billion. that was good. they also got some upgrades from the community. so shares moved up, screamed higher. best day of the year. >> drop for mattel down 3%. >> this one has had a rough go, down 38%. they're losing their licensing deal for walt disney for 2016 to hasbro. the barbie brand is still coming in and receiving. so this one is trying to switch to digital. i wasn't be a buyer. a drop for ebay down 5%. >> this one on earnings. they've got the yahoo!/alibaba
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syndrome where they split them up. they are taking out the growth. i wouldn't touch this one. >> a volatile week for stocks but the charts may be pointing to the end of the sell-off. gray wolf's mark newton is here. a lot of people were rejoicing over the fact that the russell 2,000 had been actually outperforming. i'm wondering if we should be celebrating that or we should be more concerned that the pain is moving into the mega caps at this point. >> melissa, i don't think we've seen sufficient signs of stabilization to really think that the lows are in just yet. if anything you look at the volatility over the last couple weeks, it's been one of the more important moves we've seen. if anything at least some initial indication that the broader rally that started in 2009 is just starting to show signs of peaking out. if you look at charts for the s&p, you see this break which really happened a few week ago. the s&p just in the last week has traveled down about 100 points for over 5%.
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it has gotten short term oversold. we have seen signs of fear rise. in the last couple days the russell 2000 has outperformed for three straight days. those are all positives. if anything energy is a sector that's gotten oversold and today made a very good reversal. my problem is when you look at the longer term, weekly momentum has fallen to the lowest level in almost three years. so you have only less than 14% of stocks right now above their 50-day moving average and less than a third above their 200. so despite the fact that the s&p is down only 8%, the broader market has had a much bigger correction if you look at things in equal weight terms and that's my concern. so i think my target is down near 1757. i think that's a third of the move from the november 2012 lows and if anything it's right near february lows of this year. if you look at another chart though, and you can see just the russell, and this is one reason to be to some extent constructive on the very short term is you see this russell decline versus the s&p.
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this is russell over the s&p in relative terms. over the last three days this has come up and is actually in the process of trying to break this down trend, and so if anythin anything the russell is starting to show signs of strength. the russell led the entire market down. short term signs of stabilization might mean the broader market can move higher. near term i think we bottom doubt in three to five days. any bounce near 1900 is a chance to sell. i think between now and elections we'll get down to -- >> i think the market ultimately is probably going lower if we can't bounce in the nement couple days. where is the line in the sand for you? is it the 200 day at 1905, 1906 in the s&p cash. where if we close above that for a couple consecutive closes will you change your gears? >> really we'd have to see a move almost over1940. if anything the near term will be very choppy. we can rally to above the 200-day and still pull back.
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i need to see more signs of stabilization. i want to see extreme fear, trend readings of over 2, and see if anything shows signs of the counter trends. >> bottom line for those people at home who don't follow all that. closes above 1940 on the s&p 500 is what you're looking for. yes? okay. mark, thank you. >> thank you very much. >> mark newton of gray wolf. those are pretty scary levels. you're looking at the 200-day moving average. >> i'm looking at the 200-day moving average. i'm also looking to the downside. i had 1765 flagged. he said 1760 and change. we're still on the same page there but it's crucial for the next couple days for this market to really rally back because if it doesn't, it opens up the door to a lot more selling. you remember we have midterm elections. i do believe we'll probably ramp up. that could be the catalyst to ramping up going into year end. >> investors searching for safety this week amid lots of volatility sending yields to dip
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below 2% for first time in more than a year. will the search for safety continue? that's next. each ally bank 24/7, but there are no branches? 24/7 it's just i'm a little reluctant to try new things. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates. ghave a nice flight!r bag right here. traveling can feel like one big mystery. you're never quite sure what is coming your way. but when you've got an entire company who knows that the most on-time flights are nothing if we can't get your things there too. it's no wonder more people choose delta than any other airline. an unprecedented program arting busithat partners businesses with universities across the state. for better access to talent,
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segment where we look closer at alternative investment strategies. market volatility sending money into treasuries and pushing yields below 2%. what's your best play in fixed income. let's bring in greg peters of at prow dean shall. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> got to ask you about the ten-year yield. yesterday we saw the biggest move since the lehman brothers collapse. where do we go from here? >> yeah. well, first of all, yesterday was absolutely epic. the volatility that we witnessed yesterday was really off the charts. it was over a six sigma event. i think that's really important. i think it really speaks to the skittishness in the market and the positioning in the market. so i think that's a really important baseline to start with. as far as yields are concerned though, i really don't see yields moving dramatically higher from here. we've been long duration for most of the year. we're kind of flattish now but
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we think bigger opportunities is in the spread markets more so than the treasury market. >> you don't see yields going much higher. do you see them going much lower? >> well, you know, what i think the bias is there more than rates moving higher. i think it's a harder call now than it was but i see a bias towards lower yields than higher yields. more importantly what i see happening in the market is pricing out the rate hikes. so the market moves on bullard's comments today and i think really what we'll see over the course of the next couple months or so is that the expectation of the fed is they're out of the game, not in the game. >> wanted to hit on where you think is the best value in the bond market and that is high yield junk. >> high yield has led the charge down. it started in the summer. it was very technical. as you remember at the time there was a tremendous amount of outflows, so the high yield market has really underperformed for quite some time, and it took
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additional leg down over the next, you know, couple weeks or so. so to me it's the most dislocated spread market out there right now. fundamentals are still pretty reasonable. yields have really repriced in a meaningful way. i really think the short end of the high yield market is tremendously attractive. so to me risk adjusted is really a good value. >> all right. greg, thank you so much. greg peters of prudential where he sees value in junk. karen, where do you stand? >> we don't really have a bond portfolio, not a fixed income portfolio, but the sell-off in the high yield has been pretty dramatic. i think it's probably upside. >> okay. while everyone is watching the turmoil in the u.s., b.k. is actually watching russia. why? >> well, i actually think this was the biggest story of the know nobody was talking about, it's the russian ruble. this morning russia came out and offered $50 billion worth of
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repos. basically they're trying to control the slide in their currency. they spent $11 billion this month. they're eating through their reserves. they have $450 billion worth of reserves, so they have a little bit of cushion here. but the bottom line is low oil prices are hurting the russian economy. this is just like the bank of england when george soros back in the '80s took them on and you had a collapse of the currency. i think the same thing occurs here and you need to watch russia. you need to watch the russian ruble. the economy or at least the currency is headed towards collapse. >> what is your trade if there is one off of all of this? >> well, i mean the trade would be to short the russian stock market into this event. >> short the rsx. >> short rsx. if you get a devaluation event, you'd cover your short on that particular thing. i think just in general on the macro this is one of those black swan events that nobody is watching that you need to keep your eye on. >> still ahead, the energy sector under pressure in the past month, but we'll tell you one name in the space that the
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raiders are betting will jump 20%. stay tuned. traders are betting 20%. stay tuned. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.
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today as crude oil reboundedage some traders are betting there could be more profits in the space. mike khouw is over at the smart board with all the action. >> in the energy space in particular has been a place for people to do a little bottom fishing. what we saw was a big buy of the november 62.5 calls. somebody paid 40 cents for those. that's a bet the stock will be up 20% in just over a month. you will notice the high today versus the low yesterday, that itself was a 10% move. so giving yourself almost 40 days for that to play out, especially given where this stock has come from might be a cheap way to make a bullish bet here. >> and, in fact, we did see some, you know, shum berchlumbe reporting after the hours. and baker hughes, the conference call was positive in terms of where he saw the level at which oil should fall before producer start tailing back. >> the problem though is that that number was always -- my whole career that number was 80,
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85. now i hear people saying 70, 75. >> 75 is what he said. >> exactly. i always heard it was above 80 and obviously these are averages we're talking about, but if the saudis, their price is $5 to $10, they could put a lot more pressure, and we've seen them with the willingness to do so. so that to me makes me a little bit nervous -- >> but you wouldn't go along with this bullish bet that this particular trader -- >> well, oil has been correlated to the market, so directly correlated to the market. we haven't seen that in a while. i would think if the market does better, oil does better. >> for or "options action" check out our live show tomorrow 5:30 p.m. eastern time. you tweet it, we trade it. let's get to some of the tweets. this is for dr. j. how long before gilead gets back above $109. 2 didn it didn't want to come down with the market. >> and they have that treatment that's nearly $90,000, i believe. and they do have some competition that's also priced very high, $84,000 or above.
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so i think that the treatments for hiv as well as what they're doing for hep c are ground breaking. i would be very willing to hold this stock here. as far as when does it go back to $109? if the market stabilizes here, it will be there by the end of the year. >> is the opportunity to get into the -- is this i should say the opportunity to get into delta air lines? >> i don't think so. at least not for the long term. in the short term you could certainly see a pop here. delta bounced off 30. that's good technically, but i would much rather be a seller of the airlines as you see global growth slowing and particularly a carrier like delta will get hurt disproportionately to something that's more of a domestic carrier. if i was long it, i would be selling out on rips. >> all right. stay tuned.
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this guy could take down your entire company.h? stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster? today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. shares of netflix are falling like a house of cards in the wind but can this stock rise again. don't miss my take. i'm talking to the ceo. mad money is next. >> another check on shares of google down 3%. remember, earnings missed but more importantly the paid click growth was a little bit less than expected. the cpcs were better than expected. that was sort of a wash here. we're seeing it down again. this is off of its afterhours
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session lows. time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> when we did the show on monday, we started google trade down after hours. i think that was the flush. people were reading into this type of earnings report. i think most of this sell-off is over. i'm long the name. i think if you get a discount tomorrow you should be long the name as well. >> dr. j? >> am bach financial. ambc, bought that today. unusual activity earlier in the week. today there was more unusual activity. i bought it. >> karen? >> i thought the banks were really overdone yesterday. so we bought some bank of america calls. we bought the december 15s but it doesn't really matter which strike you choose. i think this will be a $20 stock next year. >> bk.? >> i mentioned russia earlier. another way to play this is via gold and gdx. the reason why if i were russia and b.k. is not russia -- >> really? >> i'm not.
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but if i were russia, i would immediately back my currency with gold. first one to do that wins. that's the way you solve it. so gdx is my trade. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you make some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to explain so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or of course, tweet me @jimcramer. we are now in event-driven mode. when we get a negative headline, we get hammered, but we have an
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