tv Squawk on the Street CNBC October 17, 2014 9:00am-11:01am EDT
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putting some of that back to work over the next couple of weeks. small cap is having a nice run, too. >> thank you for being with us today. >> that does it for us today. have a wonderful weekend. >> show it off live. >> get away from us right now. ah! time for "squawk on the street." go away. from that to this. good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl quintanilla is at the goldman sachs innovators and builders in santa barbara, california, where he conducted an exclusive interview with goldman's chairman lloyd blankfein. he'll have more on that and that conference. let's give you a look at
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futures. if you're long anything in the market, you're feeling better right now. you've got to stay tuned. we have seen volatility, to say the least during the session. yesterday was a building block, one would say. take a look at the ten-year note. we were below 2%. now we are at, what, almost 2.2%. >> that is the most important thing. if you just want to talk about that? >> we could spend a lot of time. >> that move into it and out of it. there is oil coming up. yesterday when oil reversed, the market reversed. >> we can make stuff up about the fed. a lot of people seem to make a cottage industry was oil reversing because the number of bankruptcies we would get between 70 and 75 is extraordinary. >> the markets looking to end that volatile week on a high note driven by earnings and a
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hope perhaps for a fed reprieve. >> europe. it was the europe deal. italy and france have gotten together against germany. >> lloyd blankfein talks to carl about the new sociology. it does say that. more economic data on tap. consumer sentiment. we'll have that at 9:55 from rick santelli. all right. now, now you can speak. i had to finish the road map. >> driving the market down. it's europe in disarray. if germany buckles under, good car registrations in europe last night. if germany buckles under to italy and france in the ecb, that's the biggest thing that can happen. >> we should explain. okay, austerity is no longer the watch word. we'll spend money. >> fdr versus hoover. it's simple. merkel is hoover in a pantsuit. >> okay. thanks for that image. >> like that?
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>> i do. although fdr spent a lot of money to build up the military. >> we went back onto a depression because they tightened. >> what is the news that gives you some thought -- >> this conference looks like germany is going to fold, okay? it also looks like putin is talking a little -- the ruble is falling apart. so putin may not have all the flexibility he wanted to. there are rumors of a giant injection in china. i'm going to tell you something that is not being talked about. >> we are showing people the european markets. >> something you told me to focus on. you said one person died of ebola. you put that out to me versus flu? >> yes. >> duncan died september 24.
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today is day 23. where are all the cases? >> that is the good sign. >> we also know -- >> it's very unfortunate two health care workers were infeted. >> but you saw the level, using regular hospital gowns. i did confirm with the cdc if you use clorox it does kill. >> you brought up ebola. does it start to -- its impact on the markets, the extent there has been one, start to wane? >> you get a cruise ship. we are going to have more cases. the fact the president had a different kind of fireside chat, thank you, chris matthews for that. you did see someone trying to get ahead of it. you have a czar coming in. frieden of the cdc, but he will be tied up with the flu cases. perhaps you get someone who is more interested in cdc. they had good mount sinai guest
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how centers will handle this. i'm notn expert. it looks like if you got a deal in europe, if you have china injecting, you have oil bottoming, treasuries going back, my checklist -- >> looks better. >> allows me to look at schlumberger with a blowout quarter, ppg turning an amazing, margins and morgan stanley blowing it away. >> we'll get to earnings. you might add to that the fact a lot of head funds that have gotten crushed, not just talking about the shire deal which was a debacle. selling, repositioning, getting out. there are a lot of stocks. janna sold qep. they had a 13 d on it. they went to zero because they've been suffering a lot of pain. that repositioning had a broader impact on the market, as well.
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maybe it's coming to a bit of an end. hedge funds are going to vastly underperform. >> my favorite strategist at jpmorgan put out a good paper talking about that. hedge funds being completely off sides. they were off sides. i like that. let me put out one. last night there was a tremendous amount of shorting in google. all i cared with is cost per click, the measure of monetization for profitability is cost per click. that was fabulous. it was a positive callout. if you go over the google quarter, they do things. this is what you're never supposed to do, right? we hired a lot of people, high quality 3,000 hires. you're not allowed to hire, you must fire. >> if you go back, they almost hired every single quarter of their existence. >> i know people first in the glass of wharton did not get in. first in the class at stanford. yes.
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second in class, no. had to go to facebook. >> they have thousands of employees only a couple of miles here on 14th street. you mean an actual engineer. >> you must be first in your class at cal tech then you get a big interview. they talk about hiring these people. all the other companies talk about firing. this company says we are proudly getting the best people in the country. toll me if that isn't exactly what you want to hear. >> that is exactly what you want to do. the fact is they are seeing sequential declines in metrics. 20% revenue growth is incredible. it's the greatest business the internet has seen. >> you know price earnings multiple 14. growth at reasonable price. you know who else has growth at reasonable price? alibaba. i've got 30% shares growing. >> looking at about $90.
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>> you can't think about any of this if you don't have the other background. >> all right. you are looking through the google quarter. you were up going through everything. the stock by the way now up. looks like it's going to be up. >> capex is 2.4 billion. they have green fields in virginia. >> power is cheaper. they like to build them near hydroelectric dams. >> this is a great american company. we tend to like companies that fire more people and that's how they made the number. i like companies that hire the smartest people. that doesn't mean i don't like honeywell. >> and they are able to change exactly how they need to in order to deal with mobile. they are the incumbent. >> thank you.
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they are the incumbent. none of this matters if europe doesn't get better, ebola, russia, china. all the news in the last 24 hours is good. >> all right. morgan stanley, ge, which one you want to talk about? >> ge, talk basis points. >> i love talking about basis points. >> so do i. orders were really good. it hasn't been able to fall to the bottom line until today. margin's up 90 basis points. guiding to the high end of the 4% to 7% organic growth. if it weren't for the fact honeywell was so extraordinary, we would just be focused how good ge is. >> honeywell was. ge stock will be up nicely this morning. benefitting from the broader rally. >> textron and ge talking about aero being strong. share take from boeing. honeywell talking about raising numbers very big.
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aero 200 basis points improvement. refining chemicals to make more gasoline, remarkable. the aero guidance is extraordinary. this stock is on fire. >> morgan stanley, i will end there. 8.9 billion. did come above the consensus of what analysts believe the company will earn. model seems to be working in terms of wealth management. >> it's consistent. carl sat down with lloyd. great interview. lloyd, good to be back lloyd, like "the shining." he sat down with blankfein. obviously lloyd blankfein has been much more of an ambassador. more jefferson than nixon. sorry, i wanted to do that.
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earnings are on an upswing. morgan stanley is linear. goldman with a $150 book value, they close the place make a lot of money. >> carl is out in that conference and did interview mr. blankfein late yesterday. >> yeah. great point, jim. goldman's quarter was one of those things on the list of things going right along with morgan stanley's quarter. we wanted to take lloyd's temperature on the reaction wednesday when we saw the ten-year go below 2%. i said there is a notion that bank regulation, of all things, has removed banks' ability to act as a stabilizing force in things like the treasury market. he didn't agree with that. >> there's elements of the market that are starting to look at elements of the equities
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market where you get gappy kinds of moves. we are seeing that in the treasury market compared to ironically maybe less efficient in some ways. often a more ordinarily market dealing with a sense of responsibility to the clients, stand in and smooth out the flows. that's an element. there is a sociology in the market move not just the regulation. maybe they are related. >> later this morning, george lee, goldman's chair of t&t, we'll talk to him. david solomon. we'll talk about the inversion policy, m&a and ipo. this conference in santa barbara where they paramerging entrepreneurs with seasoned entrepreneurs. they get a lot of good work done. we'll talk about that later this morning on "squawk on the street" and "squawk alley." >> interesting to hear from solomon. you wonder what that will mean
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with initial public offerings. it does have a chilling effect on m&a. it's not clear whether that's going to be the case or not. >> we'll have to see what david says, yes. >> what he said about the federal reserve, which is my view. i thought it was honorable and different. the idea that we always criticize these guys. who actually figured out who got it right, lloyd blankfein, but he was effusive in his praise. i liked it. that was a great interview, carl. >> he took a nice chance to needle the critic whose said the fed was feeding inflation. where are the people now. called them wise and courageous and said they almost paid an insurance premium over this time to make sure we don't fall into something worse than what we are already in. >> all right, carl. we'll be checking in with you in
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just a bit. >> fabulous. speaking of interviews, monday there will be another big interview. watch john fortt's exclusive with microsoft ceo satya nadella, 6:00 a.m. eastern. that's early. another look at futures. not for you, i know. >> no. >> we are setting up for what will be at the open a significant move higher. more "squawk on the street."
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there is a look at fair value. it's been a long week if you were long the market. earnings from morgan stanley look pretty good. mary thompson back at hq. >> i just got off the phone with the cfo of morgan stanley. a strong beat. in large part due to strength in investment banking, equity underwriting a factor in the third quarter results. speaking of that, she did say the investment banking backlog remains strong for morgan stanley. as she points out, the volatility is not constructive for deals. she did point out it's only two weeks.
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right now the investment banking backlog remains strong. one thing the retail on the client engagement, its brokerage unit, remains strong. importantly, the lending part of that business was very strong in the third quarter. keep in mind that is a key part of mr. gorman's strategy in improving results at the retail brokerages. securities lending was up $2 billion in the quarter, mortgage lending up $1.5 billion. one last comment on the sale. if it doesn't close by year end, the company saying once again the company continues to explore options in the event it doesn't close by year end. no news there. a very strong quarter for morgan stanley. >> thanks, we'll watch that stock along with many others. our market looking to be up, too. >> we'll have the mad dash after this as we count down toward the opening bell. this is a burrito made with
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don't wait ask your doctor about spiriva handihaler. our last mad dash, schlumberger. >> baker hughes down 10% talking about pricing pressure everywhere. schlumberger is a fantastic quarter. they are talking about mexico and brazil which are all waiting for the big programs that will be tail winds next year. obviously, russia is a problem.
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saudi arabia, drilling like mad. >> with brent and wti coming down sharply, isn't that going to curtail plans or no? >> schlumberger presents itself more international oriented. spends more time talking about the margin expansion overseas. i agree. baker hughes' call was grim. the stock did rally. they are talking about $75 being that price where companies get in trouble. witness the chesapeake sale of fabulous properties put together. >> chesapeake pulled up sharply. >> southwestern did well, too. i think by the way, raymond james, those properties were extraordinary. typically the west virginia properties. they needed to do this trade. don't give up on southwest just because it's not a takeover target. >> one of your areas of expertise to another. oil to retail. urban outfitters, ugly. >> here is how you screw up. you have an analyst meeting on september 23rd where you said
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everything was great. then you issue a q last night which says things have slipped. you want to destroy your own stock, you want to be on a suicide mission, get involved with urban outfitters. this is no ultrasalon. mary dillon may be the best retail. 9% comps. ulta. this is where bad management of what can happen. this is wall of shame material. i like them in philadelphia, too. what can i do? schlumberger, wall of fame. along with dave cody from honeywell. he's my neighbor. never minded when my girls had a party. never once complained.
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no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. we are live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell ringing in three minutes. we were talking about google earlier. after the bell yesterday, this morning that seems to be reversing a bit. that's not to say that there aren't some tough compares coming their way for the fourth quarter and this deceleration may give people pause. facebook business seems to be strong. you have a much higher multiple. the underlying performance may be good. >> facebook could still have
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accelerating revenue growth. that keeps me, my charitable trust in facebook. if google were to begin to monetize youtube which they talked about, it would be significant. >> they are talking about advertising. talking about advertisers the first time. you know the wholesale shift in the area you know better than anyone, this is where they are losing customers. this is picking up speed and it's just beginning. still have 101 million people in cable television in this country. it does raise that idea of the
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bundle breaking apart. >> makes me like netflix less. last time i saw a stock go down, it's been more than a couple of months in purgatory. i don't think it's done going down. >> why do you have to rethink? >> you have to rethink because this next quarter is so horrendous that i just get worried about the cash flow situation. we have an ipo. we are 30 seconds away from the opening bell, of course. what's the watch today?
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>> i am retreating back to alcoa. they started off with an amazing quarter. nobody seemed to care. abc reporting for the first time isis in retreat, the first time, isis in retreat. i like alcoa here. the other one reversed off the conference call. these are great american companies going down because of europe. will you look at that? a sea of green. >> you heard the opening bells. zayo is a provider of bandwidth infrastructure services and did celebrate its ipo today. at nasdaq, glaad, standing up
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against bullying. >> alcoa. >> that was a great quarter and no one cared. if alcoa can come back, it says the market has a degree of memory we didn't think it had. goldman sachs, it was a great quarter. >> stock was down. that was a different take. today i look at this. are we done? >> no, no. >> is that the flush? i didn't really hear it. >> the flush? you told me what the flush was. the flush was about shire. >> it was. >> that was the bottom of this. if we get more ebola over the weekend, a lot of shorts covering, be aware that oil is the crucial number because oil says the world is not going into recession. >> did oil get a bit overdone there? >> yes. i think there was a moment where
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the limited partnerships, it was between 9.45 and 9.55 you saw the last bit of oil and that turned the market. everybody wants to be fed-centric. everybody has been so wrong about the fed. i'm sorry, i can't go there. >> you can't go where? >> i'm not going to decide some guy comes on tv who is a fed guy who is not that important and turn the market around? >> who was it. >> we had the possibility, if you listened to baker hughes conference call of major companies going bust if oil goes below 75. >> continental said that's not true. >> he has $18 refining costs. baker hughes has a bunch of numbers about who does well. >> it depends what you paid. >> if you came in last, and your first balance sheet, you were
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biting your finger nails. oil, europe, russia, isis. >> talking about leveraged balance sheets, with the ten-year having hit 2% even where we are right now, the cost to borrow continues to be so incredibly low. that being said, the credit markets lately have been very illiquid. you haven't seen any big deals get done in high yield that i'm aware of. >> no. >> this volatility does that. you've got to hope that breaks also. if it does, it's yet -- >> kelly king, ceo of bb&t, one of the top ten banks in the country, wells fargo, the largest in mortgage. both came out and said the refis are the busiest they've seen in years. the refis. as kelly told me last night on "mad money," he said basically it was like everyone who still had 5-6 who missed it last may 2013, they're all in. look, we are getting good
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numbers. we had bad numbers. you get good numbers and you don't have the cloud of europe. herbert hoover decides, hey. >> although it seems a bit much to say we don't have to worry about europe. >> no. we have plenty to worry about. >> no real growth there. just the decision by germany to back off a little bit on austerity. >> and putin has to come to the table and stop talking about turning off the gas. i don't know how the ruble cuts. if it gets cratered, he has to pump more oil. one of the secrets why oil went down, people say saudis want market share. they have a deal with exxon in one of the biggest refineries in this country. almost every country has pulled back importing for us to export. nigeria is shut out by shale.
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saudi arabia kept a deal with exxon refiners. >> that other stuff is just sitting there. >> we've got the s&p over 1%, nasdaq composite up about 1.2% right now. a nice broad rally. the ten-year yield moved up. oil has moved up this morning. lending a more positive tone to this market. those seem to be keys in terms of how our market moves. overall, looking at my screen here, google is down. netflix down ever so slightly. >> you are correct. google had enough that was not great. i just said it doesn't belong down 30. there was a lot that was not great. we hardly talked about how apple
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put out and people yawned. >> we didn't speak about the new ipads and how thin they are. very excited about the fact they are finer than a pencil. >> i get that. and watch cbs and time warner. >> they are never going to cut corners. there may be a way for you to get sports. the all-in package may not be that much off what the bundle is. >> are you going to take away my espn? >> no. i think i can figure out how to get it to you. if people are looking to recut their bundle will say, i'm spending that much for espn? >> i know. it's extraordinary. aerospace up, oil up. restaurant up. >> disney up a lot this morning. time warner, by the way, was up 4.5% yesterday after that enormous raise in guidance the day before when the stock was up.
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he did get it going. remember, that was the shire day. you were so right. that was the day the hedge funds broke and that was the margin call day when it was down 400. right at that hour if you are going to be a good margin call clerk, that's when you do it. >> right. everybody is taking the pain to live another day. >> right. >> i don't think anybody is going out of business. you have funds down double digits now. guys that are positive. it's a lot of other things. take a look at my area where, tnt, in terms of media, telecom technology. there are ugly numbers in that cohort. >> i know. >> ugly. >> again, we are overshooting the upside because there are things overseas that could obviously play out incorrectly. merkel says i don't know what people are talking about. i'm going to be horrible.
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i'm going to be mean. i'm going to break up the coalition. putin will be. it could go bad. ebola. at this very moment snapshot in time, there are things happening that are good that are making it so people say there is an all clear. is there an all-clear? it's too hard. there are positives. >> there are positives. >> remember, europe cass down, the worst in 11 years, worse streak in 11 years. that's amazing. europe, russia, these are so front and center for me. we used to talk about them when rates were going up. that seemed to be cogent. when they are going back in recession is more cogent. by the way, we should mention the cruise lines. obviously, there is a little mention of an ebola scare on a cruise line. those go down. someone was saying that you were much more methodically checking
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me on ebola yesterday. i was doing fear mongering. i am saying it's the government getting ahead of ebola would make people less fearful. >> all right. let's get to bob pisani, a man who knows fear and greed. >> more fear than greed this week. great start. let's look at the major sectors. industrials, energy, tech, material, consumer discretionary. all those pro growth nondefensive parts of the market are the ones leading the way here. am i imagining things or was there a conference call of central bankers last night? it sort of looks that way. look what happened here. one of the ec b's board members says ecb is going to start purchasing assets within days. that was a bit of a surprise. more accommodation available. the chief economist for the bank of england said interest rates could remain lower for longer than people think, than even he thought.
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china, this was a big surprise out of nowhere. china central bank said it would inject up to $32 billion into 20 large national and regional banks. controversial, but definitely looked like those moved the markets. these comments moved the markets this morning. coordinated interests. coordinated discussions. most important thing to me, the markets reporter was the earnings. the big industrials are reporting. earnings are good enough for all of them. take a look at general electric. they beat on the earnings expectations. orders were pretty good. up 22%. that stock is up almost 3%. honeywell raised the low end of its 2014 guidance. ge did not drop guidance. honeywell raised the low end of its 2014 earnings and revenue
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guidance. the fact that these companies are not missing and are not lowering guidance at all given where the expectations have come is a tremendous relief for the market overall. to me, it's the most important thing more than any of these comments from the central bankers here. a smaller company, but i love the multiindustry companies. textron, all over the world. they do aircraft, defense, industrials. they came out better than expected and raised their 2014 guidance. 202 to 215. they were somewhere around $1.92 to $2.12. that's up 8%. most of the big multiindustry companies are on the up side. this is all a tremendous relief to the market. you can see the markets moving up on this. google, the markets were google positive. on the surface, it was a disappointment. advertising was lighter than expected. the cost per click was down. everybody says, not as much as
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we thought. google down 1.5% but could have looked worse than that. they want to move this positive. highs up 157 points. back to you. >> thanks, bob pisani. it's time to weigh back to valiant allergan. it was largely going to be stock what i believe to be the case. that raise never came even though it was reported to be imminent. there is not going to be a raise before the meeting december 17th. monday, valeant will report earnings.
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they are going to be very good. very strong numbers. strong cash flow. a real reaffirmation of the business model there in terms of what they will show with the new products. the belief previously was and the strategy was you get a higher stock price from that and momentum going into it. after it, you raise your bid. their stock price is not high enough to get enough traction from raising at all. in the allergan camp, they believe they are going to go into this meeting and still be able to win. they are going to tell shareholders, by the way, if we don't get a majority of the board, we'll drop our bid. no surprise there, of course. my expectation still is they will raise the bid prior to the meeting.
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perhaps they raise it after iss. those meetings will take place early to mid november where they are going to try to get iss onboard to support their slate of directors. maybe you raise after that. those looking for a raise from valeant, that widely-advertised raise, that's not coming. that is not happening at this point. on this front, we still have the question as to whether allergan will attract the interest of activists. i don't know. there are no talks taking place between those two companies. that does not mean a deal could not get done quickly. >> one of the top ceos in the country. i'm a fan. he had the greatest growth of any of the major pharmas.
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>> you are going to have shire out there, too. untold story i don't have time to tell now. the tension between ackman and pearson and everyone in that valeant camp is great. they are all over each other. they are not operating on the same wave length. >> no? okay. >> they would have been much better off not dealing with ackman and going right to a proxy fight. >> let's go to rick santelli. >> that set the tone for what's going on today. markets are clear. look at 24 hours of the dax. right after the opening, roughly 3:30 eastern a.m., look how it came out in the chute. now look at our ten-year around
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the same time. when did the yields pop? even with the better than expected housing, if you like people renting because it was mostly multifamily versus single family which was up marginally, we didn't get a whole lot of activity on the 8:30 eastern data. if we look at a two-day chart of the bond boon, this tells us a lot, too. you realize the boons traded $87 are only down two basis points on the week? that is significant considering where it traded to in terms of close to 70 basis points. if you open the chart up on 10 for a one-week chart, you miss most of it. you can see it stabilized. the intraday levels get lost on charts. they use closing levels. when i look back and see what happened on wednesday, we are, what? 33. 33 basis points. 33 above that intraday low yield. you think that was a bit of a reversal? many do think so. the markets certainly continues to firm up.
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let's look at one year of boons versus tens. this is so significant. timing isn't perfect, but as that spread narrows, that means maybe a turn 2in a lot of issue that turn rates down. euro has done well. for the year, it's doing darn well. back to you. >> thanks, rick santelli. coming up, carl has gotten much more from goldman sachs' builders and innovators. >> a lot still to come this. summit is interesting. goldman pairs more than 100 young entrepreneurs with giants like reed hastings and michael dell. when we come back, two very rare interviews, george lee, chairman of tech media and telecom and david solomon, co-chair of investment banking. i know what you're thinking...
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what a week for that piece of paper. many say that is the story of the week. we hit below 2%, now back above it. when you look at the actual move, it's not as great. wow, that was quite a ride. as it moves up in yields, seemingly our market does, as well. we'll have stop trading with jim coming up. ♪ (train horn) vo: wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities. i lochecked bag.free with my united mileageplus explorer card. i have saved
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we have two stop trading. first is a follow-up story. >> i'm blown away by schlumberger saying oil demand will pick up in 2015. there will be a pick up in oil drilling. that is contrary to what everyone else is saying. be aware everyone trusts schlumberger's forecast more than anybody. >> they are saying demand. >> demand will pick up. drilling will pick up. it's very contrary to what everyone is thinking. schlumberger has been the thought leader in the group. i can't tell you schlumberger doesn't know what they are talking about. they've been too right the whole
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way. >> that would change a lot of thinking. >> i have to obey my learn to love. schlumberger since '82 never steered me wrong. >> let's get to rick santelli with consumer sentiment coming out about five seconds from now. >> we are looking for the october preliminary read. we are comping it to the final read last month at 86.4. spotters are out. 86.4. that's pretty decent level. many were looking for the number to be between 82 and 84. how does that figure in? that's easy. if we look at 84.6, which was our last read, that comp to 85.1 in july. that was the best level since july '07. this usurps that. this gets closer to that 94.4 level in july 2007. the issue is not how good the
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preliminary looks, do we carry it over and make it an f for an october final? this was a good start. >> you had an ace in your hole the whole show you haven't shared with us. >> this is for jeneron talking about their fantastic drug for macular. sanofi is in there. amgen sued today off their breakthrough cholesterol drug. they feel there is a patent infringement. it's up 25. >> you think the news could have lifted it more? >> definitely. when you compare against the most important competitor, it's pretty clear that regeneron is game, set, match for them. the amgen patent claim, i don't
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know. patent claims tend to be messy. their patent is good and the anti-cholesterol drug is amazing. . >> have a great weekend. >> i loved today. >> you earned it, baby. >> you did, too. >> i don't wake up at 3:00 a.m. that's never happening. we'll have carl with more from goldman sachs' builders and innovators summit in california. take on the challenge of trading options and futures... with the easy-to-use suite of trading tools... at optionsxpress by charles schwab. and we'll give you a one hundred fifty dollar amazon.com gift card when you open an account. if you're looking for a trade idea, start at the idea hub... where options and futures opportunities are organized by volatility, earnings, market activity and income strategies. then run your new idea through the trade and probability calculator to get a quick look at the possible upside and downside. streaming charts give you the real-time quotes and customized views of the market that can help you
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our road map starts with the market. volatility is the name of the game as stocks rebound today. we'll help you navigate the big, wild market moves. >> google reporting a miss in the third quarter thanks to slowing advertising growth. what should you be doing with the stock? we'll ask rbc. >> goldman sachs' top tech banker has never done an interview. find out what he has to say about the state of technology. >> what a way to finish the week. a powerful rally. the dow up 180 points. back in the green after what has been clearly a wild ride for many investors, to say the
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least, during the course of the last six or seven days. joining us now, mary ann bartle. it's noisy. we have an ipo behind us. is the substantial selling over? >> i think it is likely. we reached oversold levels in the equity market the last day or so. the market was ripe for a rebound. it will probably last a couple of days. we'll be watching it closely. i'm not certain we have yet to work through this corrective phase. ultimately, while we are going to see stability brought into the equity markets because the reasons for what conspired to have it sell off don't warrant the decline we've seen yet. we may test a lower level than we have earlier this week. >> we think the markets did have
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capitulation. what is unusual the bond and equity market did it simultaneously. we have volatility levels we haven't seen since 2011. what we learned in 2011, if you get action from the ecb, markets will test and could make a new low. we think this is the 10% correction everybody has been looking for. we are recommending that our clients actually buy on this correction. >> are they receptive to that? i'm sure you heard from a number of big money clients this week. how scared are they, how nervous by these wild moves? are they pressing the sell button? >> clients have been nervous all along. that's not new. especially with isis and ebola does have people nervous. seeing markets get rocked like this, we get a lot of incoming calls. surprisingly, we didn't see a lot of selling from our retail clients. most of the selling we saw were institutionals and the hedge
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fund community. i think we are going to see some of retail step in. we did see buying particularly in energy and the master limited partnerships. if we can stabilize these markets, we'll see buying come back in. >> mark, when you hear about the markets stabilizing today and in general, it inevitably comes to talk about central bankers stepping in, some type of action, even if it's just verbal. trying to reassure everyone we have more tools to use. is that reassuring to you? doesn't that seem a little bit over the top when it comes to relying on monetary policy to move markets? >> certainly, i'm sure i'm not alone expressing to you i can't wait till we stop worshipping at the altar of central bankers when we have volatility in the equity market. i believe bullard yesterday was responsible for the turnaround in equity prices. at the same time he was talking out of both sides of his mouth. on one hand, he acknowledged the
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fact the economy looked fairly healthy yet expressed a view perhaps we should keep qe alive. that doesn't reconcile, in my view. as a consequence, i think what the does is continue to tease the market into believing, one, we need it and in its absence the economy is set to roll over. >> mary ann, you said you were a buyer. what has you optimistic on the stock market going into the year end? companies are reporting well. so far we haven't seen major changes in economic forecasts. i think what is important you have crude oil down year-to-year almost 20%. this is going to be very bullish for the consumer going into the
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holiday spending period. as we get data, as long as the economic numbers stabilize, we can rally into the strongest seasonal period which is november and december. there's nothing wrong right now fundamentally with the market or the economy. there's only concerns. >> mark, what is your take on earnings season? ge and morgan stanley giving people a confidence boost today. it hasn't been smooth sailing, especially when it comes to the outlook. thinking ebay and netflix. is it enough to keep the bullish momentum going on this market? >> two weeks ago when the market was trading at higher levels, i was concerned about sort of the tug of war between full valuations in the equity market. as a consequence, the demand for good news. i was worried earnings season wasn't going to match that of the second quarter which was strong. so far the news has been decent,
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but mixed. in order for equity prices to ultimately overcome head winds of concerns about importing weak global growth from overseas markets and at the same time, obviously fears associated with ebola virus, i think we need to see stronger corporate earnings. so far the delivery on that front has, at best, been mixed. >> been a good end to the week. thank you mark and mary ann. >> thank you. you may have heard a lot of applause there. our ipo opened. let's look at shares of zayo. broadband infrastructure. 18% gain. >> lloyd blankfein sitting down for an interview saying the federal reserve has been
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courageous when it comes to the economy. carl quintanilla spoke to him yesterday. christine lagarde said janet yellen's policies have been perfect. >> yes. you mentioned volatility. that's net positive for goldman. one reason the quarter was so strong. this was a chance to sort of take blankfein's temperature on all the amazing events we saw during the course of the week. you mentioned james bullard making those oblique references to extended fed accommodation. we asked how investors are supposed to take those comments and characterize the fed's performance overall. >> i would say they handled it right. they handled it in a cautious way. in some ways have been courageous. if everything goes well, it will turn out they didn't need to be this low for so long. it's like an insurance premium that they are paying.
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i think they are wise and courageous and will subject themselves to second guessing because if u.s. economy is established in good shape and goes on from here, everyone will second guess them and said you shouldn't have been this light for too long. >> we covered a lot of other things the market's been handled. he was relatively down beat on europe, essentially because the decision-making process there on policy is much more complicated than it is here in the united states. he said the states were up a half cycle ahead. ebola, which even at a conference like this which focuses on small business, everyone seems to be talking about, we asked blankfein how investors are supposed to manage such a large unknown? >> i wouldn't try to create another virus of fear that just has its own life to it. when people all of a sudden are afraid to mingle in the public or get on to -- we are not there. if all you do is turn on the tv
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set and that's what anybody is talking about, i could see how fears can play on you. that is a virus itself. >> later this morning, two gentlemen whom we don't hear from much, george lee the chairman of tech media and telecom when google and netflix had downward action. david solomon co-head of investment banking. you were talking about an ipo on the floor. we'll see whether this new volatility means the ipo window is beginning to close. >> very timely topics, carl. thanks. speaking of the fed, fed chair janet yellen making comments at the boston federal reserve economic conference saying she is greatly concerned about income inequality. steve liesman is there live in boston with more. interesting she is talking about a political issue, inequality. >> the topic of inequality was
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there with boston fed president rosengren, he says qe set to end despite the market turmoil. he said it would take a big change in the outlook to alter the fed's path which is to end qe in october. he doesn't think he will get the data for that the next couple of weeks when the fed meets the end of october. data supports a 2015 rate hike. the fed will make changes if the data changes. one thing that could change it is europe. here is what he said about europe. >> i would say financial markets moved a little bit more than the economic data coming out of europe. that being said, they are certainly having significant problems. their inflation rate is too low, unemployment rate in many european countries is too high. we are concerned about europe. we should be concerned about europe. it does affect the u.s. economy. >> what about additional quantitative easing? a lot of buzz whether the fed could roll back into another
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quantitative easing program. here is what he said about that possibility. >> i don't expect we'll need to. if the economy got weak enough that it was required, we should do it. i certainly hope and i don't expect that will be the case. i can't rule anything out at this time. >> he did say inflation is unlikely to hit the 2% target for several years. oil prices along with the strong dollar will drive down inflation in the next six months. we'll see how the fed responds. my take right now is that the fed is not going to use qe as a policy tool or extending it. the fed will use guidance on when rates will go up and the path of the incline those will become. >> can i pick up with janet yellen has been saying about inequality this very strong attack on what she describes as a vicious circle on inequality of income impeding economic activity. many billions of people would
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stand behind her in that assessment. she may be setting income inequality as a target which she may use monetary policy. people say these are structural problems you are talking about, don't keep rates lower for longer simply because you're worried about things you can't really affect. >> i don't remember hearing that. i remember alan greenspan raising the issue of income inequality as a major issue for the economy. i have not seen it to this point become a focus point of policy. they have very clear unemployment rate and inflation target as two reasons why they would move policy either way. she did express two concerns. one is about the amount of student debt and the second is about business formation, which she says low business formation could hinder productivity growth. i don't hear her saying this is a matter of policy for the
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federal reserve. to the extent inequality and unemployment are linked, that is a focal point. >> steve, thank you very much. steve liesman live from boston. up next on the program, google dropping sharply, but quickly recovering much of those losses. what should you be doing with the stock now? a quick check on the dow, up now 218 points after a real wild week. ♪
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dow jones industrial average moving higher, up 200 points as we speak. we want to go over to dom chu for a market flash. >> we are watching shares of textron. raised its full year earnings forecast as well. shares jumping up by about 9% on the heels of that strong earnings report. back to you. >> thanks, dom. we are watching shares of google reacting after the search giant reported missing earnings estimates yesterday. shares as it looked were down sharply in the after hours and
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are now down 0.5%. one analyst maintains his outperform but gave the price target a little tweak down to $7.25 from $7.30. you're still a bull on this stock. >> we thought this was one of the most inlineus quarters they put up. there was an earnings miss but due to the tax rate being higher than expected. google is the internet advertising juggernaut. we think it's a great value play in the internet. >> 19% revenue growth is impressive for any company. are you not concerned as many are this morning that the core profit driver, the search business that it dominates, is slowing? >> i think it is slowing. if you look at this for the last two years, revenue growth has been trickling down from 25% down to 19%.
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you've got margins that are stabilizing. you've got newer revenue streams that are building up. that revenue growth will slow down. a very glacial pace. growing at 19% is rare air. you've got youtube that will help. google play. google in the car, the company we think is very well set up. we think the stock is attractively priced. >> let me push back on this idea of the business slowing. so many people are commenting that's the case. the revenue growth may be 19.5%, but the slowest growth for five years. they are adding 3,000 employees. stock compensation reached $1.3 billion. the pay click growth slowed meaningfully. there are questions here, aren't there? >> there are questions. stock-based compensation. they give it out like candy. it's been an issue. it's an issue across silicon valley. the slowdown is in the ballpark
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of the range for the reasonable in a name like this. they have a high margin search business. are they taking excess process moving them into new areas of growth? we think they are. they are google, youtube enterprise, google play. we think they can glacially decline it. >> your confidence on this baffle investing and maintaining growth in the core search business, then they have $2.4 billion in terms of capex spend putting to work in the right places in terms of profit drivers for the future? >> yeah. if i go back over the last 15 years, this company has invested correctly against the next five-year trends two or three times. they got mobile right and video right. they have a good track record here. the capex looks like it's stabilizing. it's been 2.5 billion. margins stable the last three
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quarters. that's the new story here, the stabilization and expenses. >> we had an analyst monday who believes the greatest complications for google or the anti-trust. this week the competition commissioner said he's never before had push back from so many governments who want to get google. mainly because their own technology as an european have not matched. how much of a problem from left field could this be for the company moving forward? peter teal views people in silicon valley have not woken up to it. >> that commissioner out of europe did see that pushback once before. that was with microsoft. that is a bad omen for google. there are four, five risks on google.
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it is a risk. >> with microsoft, it's a big fine. the question with google is whether they force them to change their algorithms on privacy concerns. that could have a real impact on the business. >> i'll take the other side of that. i don't think it would have an impact on their business. i don't think they would be forced to divest like youtube. i think there could well be a fine coming out of this. i don't think it will have a business model impact. >> the man is bullish on google. thanks for joining us. rbc's lead tech analyst. what is interesting at the that dakota, it came into correction territory during the week. for the week overall now with gains today, it is flat. that is not true of the dow which if memory serves me correctly, is still down 1.3%. up next, a worker from the texas ebola hospital is in
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the race to contain the ebola outbreak continues this morning. there is news this morning that another dallas health care worker being watched for ebola actually left the country on a cruise vacation. plus criticism about the country's handling of the deady virus. the president says he might appoint an ebola czar. news of that could be imminent. joining us is dr. larry schlesinger. good morning to you. >> nice to be here. >> it's good to have you on the
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show. there are two sets of people that should be likely to be concerned at the moment. first are the 800 people linked to the flights this infected nurse made. the other we learn are the thousands on this cruise ship somewhere in the caribbean with a person who may have handled some of the infected material, locking himself away in a cabin, though showing no signs of infection so far. what would you say to those thousands of people who are concerned about secondary infection? >> well, first let me say that i completely understand the concern of individuals throughout the world begin the extent of the outbreak in africa and some of the questions that we've been hearing about every day on the news regarding dallas and other places. but i think the voice of reason continues to need to be told on stories, new shows such as this one that we know a lot about this virus and its transmission at this point. this is really a virus that
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needs to be transmitted by close contact and body fluids, and it's completely different than an aerosol virus such as influenza or measles. casual contact is not the way to be infected with ebola. i think that individuals like myself and others need to try to reassure the public in general that these types of situations, although quite a concern, we feel we have an understanding how to control it. >> you're making a firm statement here that this is not an airborne virus? i'm asking because the cdc has not laid out how every case was transmitted. clearly these health care workers had contact with bodily fluids, the patient sick eric duncan. we don't know and we don't know how the nbc cameraman obtained it. are you putting out of the
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question it fact it could be airborne? >> i don't know the specific of the contact cases and tracing. i feel confident those types of investigations are going on now. who's at risk, who should be observed, who should be segregated, i can't answer those questions specifically. i can say that as we know today in the current outbreak, it's behaving like a virus that is transmitted by contact with body fluids and not aerosol. one example, we look at the number of cases somebody with disease can transmit -- >> forgive me doctor. we have breaking news i think you might find interesting. >> we've just gotten word that the president is going to appoint ron klain as the so-called ebola czar. he had been chief of staff to vice president biden, discussed as potential chief of staff for
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president obama. served in the clinton administration. he goes way back with joe biden even before the clinton administration. this is someone who knows government from top to bottom. this is clearly a pick indicating that the administration believes this problem has not been a lack of scientific expertise but a lack of governmental and political expertise. ron klain is as experienced as they come. he will be working throughout the government with tom frieden and other medical personnel to coordinate a response more effectively than they have so far. >> thank you for that. let's return to dr. larry schlesinger. what do you think ron klain, chief of staff for al gore and biden, should do. there is a suggestion from goldman sachs that the likelihood of a significant outbreak of ebola is really slim. the issue certainly from a business standpoint is to communicate that to people that
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you don't get people shunning away from public areas of transport after they did after september 11th with disastrous consequences to the economy. having a visible leader focused on effective communication links is a good step. it means more attention given to this outbreak. this is an outbreak that's the largest in history in west africa. the rates suggest it's not going away any time soon. this sounds like a great next step from the standpoint of communication. >> just stand by. we have meg terrell following the ebola story for cnbc with a little more information on what mr. klain will be doing. >> that's right. some of the criticism so far is all these different agencies are working on this themselves.
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there's been no centralized control or organization of efforts. what a czar is expected to do is coordinate that as john mentioned, we don't necessarily need a medical person in charge. we've got a lot of medical people working on this. cdc has been criticized for not taking control. they didn't have the jurisdiction. this person will have the jurisdiction to see all the efforts. we have four biocontainment unit equipped hospitals in the united states. if there are more cases in dallas, where will they be treated? we only have three cases here now. as we heard yesterday, needing to step up the u.s. response to make sure infections don't spread. >> i was surprised they appointed someone with such a strong political background and not as much of a health care background. >> maybe they see it as more of a political problem. >> and a communication issue. >> he has managerial experience, obviously not health care experience. >> thanks, meg. dr. schlesinger, is there a cure
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for ebola we are not talking about? we should noah note you are a cellular immunologist. what about this new drug used to treat missionaries in liberia successfully. it seems to have disappeared off the national debates. what do you know about zima? >> i think -- i'm glad you asked that question. these experimental therapeutics, it's very early to know how effective they are in the setting of a couple of individuals. there are two experimental therapies. one, it's akin to the cases of transferring antibodies like you heard from people being cured from ebola. they can bind to the virus and neutralize its ability to cause disease. there is more of a molecular
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technique that can affect the way the virus makes protein so it can't cause the damage it causes. i think these experimental therapies are incredibly important as is the ultimate, which would be an effective vaccine to prevent ebola and to limit outbreaks in the future. critical aspect of this problem. >> okay. good night to talk to you, sir. dr. larry schlesinger. >> you're quite welcome. >> as we speak, this rally gains steam with the dow up 250 points. goldman sachs' top tech banker george lee has never spoken with an interview before. carl just sat down with him for an exclusive on the volatility in the markets we are seeing.
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now you could have done it twice. this is awkward. go to comcastbusiness.com/ checkyourspeed. if we can't offer faster speeds or save you money we'll give you $150. comcast business. built for business. momentum on the rally. up 237 points on the dow. s&p coming back towards its 200 day moving average which would be good to recapture for the bulls by the end of the week. nasdaq out of correction territory. another week which we saw the markets with huge swings. carl is out in california where he's been able to sit down with goldman sachs' top executives. >> thanks a lot. we did catch up with george lee. not a person you hear from a lot over at goldman sachs. he does run tech media and
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telec telecom. a week when the nasdaq went to correction territory a week which apple said apple pay would go live on monday. we asked george, how do you reconcile some of the bullish trends in tech mobility with the concern we have too many high valuations? >> i think it's a healthy focus making sure the companies manage themselves prudently and don't get over their skis in an environment where it would be easy to do so. again, i remain convinced over the long term, medium term, long term, the amount of value that will be created will make these small bouts of volatility seem small in retrospect. >> we are coming off a series of interesting product launches. everyone is talking about mobile payments. is there one space that you think is leading the overall pack? >> people talked about it so much. it's momentous it's worth mentioning. it's mobility. you mentioned payments which is a significant area.
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just the advent of mobile devices that change the way computing is delivered and consumed for billions of consumers around the world. really can't be underestimated in terms of its impact. that is breeding changes in every sector of technology. even outside of technology. one of the cool things at this conference here is that we pull entrepreneurs from across the various parts of the industrial eco system. in every industrial segment they are talking about the impact of technology and mobility. >> first was the battle for your living room. now the battle for your smart house. people talk about cars. none of those are separated from -- they are all moving in tandem. >> they are on expression of the same trend and emerging capability for sure. they are all going to be battlegrounds. the amount of change in each of those areas and the amount of value that will be created for us as consumers and the way our
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experiences, the way we interact will change so much in coming years. >> ipos. all this volume tight. does it mean the sweet spot for companies that want to go public is getting smaller? here is what george said. >> there's been a lot of discussion and controversy in silicon valley. if you look at the number of ipos, it suggests the silicon ipo is back. that having been said, there is a very active private capital market for later stage companies that allows companies the freedom to make that choice in a way not to feel forced to do their ipo but access capital at various stages and really significant amounts. i think it's very healthy. companies should go public when they feel ready to go public. >> somebody today wrote, given the action this week that creeking sound you hear is the sound of the ipo window closing. is that near being true?
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>> it's unclear. ipo window has opened and closed periodically in past years. i think it's a truism that really great companies can access the public markets in all but the most extreme conditions of volatility. i wouldn't be surprised to see really great companies be really successful in the ipo markets and coming months. >> those that had plans slated then withdrawn or delayed, that's not necessarily a reason for concern? >> in some ways, it's a healthy expression of markets and investors applying a thoughtful lens of discretion around what are the sorts of companies in this environment we feel really excited about. that will normalize, but again, i think it's a healthy thing in the markets. >> later in the next hour, we'll talk to david solomon, co-head of investment banking about not just ipos but m&a inversions and
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this summit goldman has done pairing young entrepreneurs with some of the giants in industry. which raises the question, what's it like right now starting a business when the world is throwing so much at public and private companies? >> looks like a great conversation. looking forward to it in the next hour. rapper, producer and techno innovator will i am. >> apple was like what michael jackson is to me. >> more on that interview with will i am coming up.
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urban outfitters setting the tone after revealing sales are continuing to decline at some of its stores. the stock you can see down by about 13%. other retailers falling in sympathy. american eagle, abercrombie and fitch, a lot of the speciality teen retailers taking it harder today than the rest of the market. back to you. >> high volume end to a big week. let's get over to rick santelli in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, simon. thank you. your discussion this morning about wealth disparity and the fed and structural issues will be the santelli exchange in about 40 minutes. i would like to welcome our special friday guest. thanks for taking the time today, matt. >> great to be here, rick. >> i know in some of your writings, you brought up copper. from my vantage point, copper is not only a sentinel commodity but is something unique in the times we've lived in.
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that is a big piece of collateral for chinese finance. i think that might partially explain what happened. it doesn't dismiss it. it makes it more interesting because i think it gives us not only a barometer about the global economy, but about china, as well. your thoughts. >> definitely. the problems with china have been with us for quite some time. the fact that people are trying to harp on it right now has more to do with what the ecb has or hasn't done. in terms of what's going on with collateral and things like that, it's a big problem. it causes the unwinding of leverage. we've seen a lot of that. >> the "wall street journal" had, and i urge everybody to read a wonderful story that we are not talking enough about the impact of china on the global economy with deterioration momentum. you brought up the ecb. there's a lot of stories out there about jupiter asset management that are getting out of greek bonds that they were
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long. easing trade a lot of asset managers and funds even as we come to the halloween anniversary, we all know they had a big presence there. but it's going the other way. they don't have confidence in ecb being able to do everything it says it's going to do. they get out of it. what are your thoughts? >> the whole thing going on here recently is that we are seeing that the ecb is not taking over or at least saying they are not going to take over in an aggressive fashion from the u.s. fed. we've known for quite some time the fed was going to be tapering off. investors had been ignoring negative fundamental flow because they assumed the ecb had their back. they've been saying now since early september that that was not the case. each time draghi opens his mouth, the market gets hit. >> you coined something i really like. if our central bank was data
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dependent, they wouldn't have missed the opportunity over the last several years to get a cushion in rates to raise it to 1% or 1.25% so they could ease now, but they can't. having said that, you coined, it's not data dependent, but market dependent. explain and that's your last shot we are out of time. >> okay. what we've seen, we saw it last year when the fed put off their tapering by a couple of months because of the way the bond market reacted. we are seeing it again now with what's going on. they are coming out and jaw boning the market because the market is starting to get hit. when the data got -- they talked about employment rate reached a target level, they threw it out of the window. the fed is reacting much more to the markets than the underlying data, i'm afraid. >> if it's systemic, they need to. thanks for taking this friday morning to spend with us, our
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viewers and listeners. >> rick santelli, looking forward to the next hour. up next, it's been quite the week for the markets. dow up 230 points. still set to end the week lower. nasdaq though erasing its weekly loss. we'll talk about all this volatility, where the markets are headed for the rest of the year with jim stewart.
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marketing have been extremely volatile this week but actually in rally mode today the nasdaq erasing all losses for the week. s&p 500 set to finish the week lower for the fourth week in a row. longest losing streak since 2011. joining us now for post 9 to break it down cnbc contributor jim stewart. beside the fact that the dow's triple digit moves are back what did we learn? >> number one, be diversified and all the dull cash and bonds you have in your portfolio is why it is there. and what i found surprising and interesting this week was not
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the stock market. we've all been waiti ing for something like this. and there are good opportunities but nevertheless the bond rally rolls on. and who thought there would be a bond rally a year ago? nobody. so it fascinates me. you want to predict where the markets are headed, that is really hard. >> you are write in the column, wednesday, when spike lowered to 1.85% on the ten years. that was pure fear and arguably the big turning point for the market. that was it. >> absolutely. when you see a sudden spike like that which is purely emotional that me is a hint there bha a bottom. my strategy is not to predict the future but to look at what just happened. when the market goes down 5% or 10% it is a buying opportunity. and if it goes down more you buy more. and then you wait and it comes
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back. >> and it could be a long wait. >> and as you get older you think do i have enough time to wait it out. i think ten years is enough of a span. and shorter than that you need more bonds. and for those in retirement i'm sure the bonds felt really good this week. >> if you are a saver you have just been getting hosed for a decade now. >> true. i was talking to the vanguard people and of course it is what they will say but you can't look at bonds for the-year-ol yield. they are there to off set the stocks. and stocks are where you get the high returns. over the last five years you have gotten those returns but you don't want to be a hundred percent in stocks. >> what is your conclusion on the market volatility. you have been telling us the market can't go up forever.
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and the persistent rise can't go up all yearlong. is this the way to help? the healthy way? >> maybe the speed with which it happened after such a long period of the tranquility. but it's no surprise the market is down. 7% total? this is not a bad moment. >> from the mid september record. >> completely to be expected and i think it is healthy. as i've said many times just keep marching up, there is not going to be higher returns without highers risk. and that means higher volatility and this is going to shake out some people that didn't want to take some risk and that is a healthy market. >> jim stuaewart, "new york tim" and cnbc contributor. >> okay. we are 5 minutes from "squawk alley" taking to the air. over to jon fortt and what we can expect on cnbc.
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>> good friday morning. it is 8:00 a.m. santa barbara california where some of the most big time niends finance and technology are gathering at the goldman sachs builders and innovators summit. and "squawk alley" is live. welcome to "squawk alley." aim here be jon fortt. back from apple's event in cuperti cupertino. house how was it. >> it was good. no big surprises but solid. >> live at the goldman sachs builders and innovators summit, is carl. and we'll get to you in a moment but we want to talk about the
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markets because it's been a whip saw week here on wall street. but we've been looking at green arrows since the open. the dow up about 1 and a half%. and despite the gains on the dow it is still on track to finish that week on the red. that would be the fourth down week for the dow in at least a couple years. so we want to stay with the markets and talk a little more about what is moving behind the markets and get to the goldman sachs builders and innovators summit in santa barbara. carl over to you. >> and kayla, thank you so much. we are here at the builders and innovators summit with david solomon. david what a treat to have you. >> nice to be with you. >> we'll get to the markets in a minute but walk us through this summit, what it is and why goldman does it. >> we really believe that the work that entrepreneurs do is violate for the u.s. econom
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