in texas and wyoming. down about 25% in fact past 3 months. okay. we don't have time for three things to know about this week? don't have time. the one thing to know is "closing bell" continues the excellent market coverage and starts in a few second. >> the other important thing is have a great weekend, everybody. see you monday. >> thank you, mandy and brian. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> good to see you again. i'm scott wapner in for bill griffith. >> and the markets right now, this is interesting. take a look at the dow. 16,345 roughly. that's behind the intraday high and almost exactly a month ago on september 19th. and so, now september 19th was also the day of the alibaba ipo, was it not? >> yes.

that was the question of being the top for stocks. >> the closing high was below that. 17,279. today the dow trying to stay positive and the s&p. nasdaq higher and the russell, scott, which has turned weaker and plenty of atngs. >> i have been saying throughout this week that among the people i'm speaking with, that's the thing they're watching maybe more so than the other internals within the market is follow the russell, follow the small caps. but yesterday the third straight day of a 1% or better gain. rolling over a little and rolling over a little, the market off the best levels, as well. >> watching the small caps. art cashin saying it's all about crude. let's get right to it. joining us is john manly, christine shore, david darst, steve parker and our own rick santelli.

so, welcome one and all. rick, i am going to start with you, actually, here because this morning we heard from janet yellen. she was talking about inequality. european central bank may be talking about further asset purchases. chinese are out there. maybe with some liquidity. is that paired with the comments of bullard yesterday, why we're seeing this rebound this footing that the market seems to have found? >> oh, absolutely. the chinese wouldn't be adding the billions of dollars if they didn't think it was necessary and this is on top of very tenuous loan portfolio activity and how it's performing. we hear lots of stories in that regard, of course. japanese talking about higher taxes. on janet yellen, listen. i'll tell you what. i understand the income disparity issue and makes me i have to say a little bit nervous that, you know, getting into a slippery slope when it comes to federal reserve and the head of the federal reserve, the

biggest, most powerful central bank on the planet, i don't know if that's the issue they should change policy for. not saying she is going to but it is a slippery slope. once again, it is all about congress. these things are the congressional mandates, these are what we need officials to deal with. and one more step and you know what i'm going to say here. the disparity, the spread of the rich and the poor has been made much wider based on many of the programs like quantitative easing and like zero interest rate policy. >> david, the market is off of its best levels, whether it was some comments by bullard or others that turned things around or at least helped to, how do you feel on this friday after the week we have had about where we are and where we may go? >> a wild week, scott. market's down 1.2%. closed at 1906.13. okay? down 1.2%. acquitted itself this week like

the san francisco giants and the kansas city royals. okay? it's going to go into the world series. this is a much needed, long overdue and healthy correction. >> is it over? >> not yet over, no. but it took ebola, it's taken concerns over europe, it's taken the concerns and the big third "e" is earnings. that determines where the market goes and a show me your money moment for germany. they have to step up. show me your money. that's what this week is. >> why do you say that the correction is not over? and say it in english, not german, for me, please. >> scott, i think it's not over because it's still dealing with high valuations. they have come down. the banks and transportation stocks have not acted well. they have acted very, very poorly. small caps you pointed out have done well. that's good. but i find amazing with oil down anywhere from 7% to 10% over the past 2 weeks that the transportation stocks, that's

the airlines, the railroads, the truckers, package delivery companies, they have been doing well. they have not. so the market needs to come with grips with how's this ceo and cfo talking about the third quarter that they're reporting in the fourth quarter ahead? that's what the market is waiting for. hiccups, this's when it's time to step in, scott. >> leading gauges, too, steve parker, people are talking about the selloff in the junk sectors of the investment market. where do you see signs of to whether this correction has run its course or haven't? >> you have to recognize, kelly, with regard to the junk market we have seen the widening in spreads and has to do with the treasury market and prices haven't come down that much. that's a sign to us that markets are not panicking. we think they're closer to a bottom. next 5% move could be up or down but we're asking ourselves for our clients, for our accounts out over the next 12 months,

what are the fundamentals saying? earnings will be good. stocks deliver returns. and we've been buying on this weakness. >> what do you think? >> he should be -- i think the markets -- i think we are going up from pretty close to here. >> getting close to the bottom or not? >> i never know within a day or two but we scared a lot of people. you got my attention this past week and one of the tricks of a bull market correction is you compact the fear inducing qualities into a much shorter, nastier period of time. bear markets in the first two, three, four months are quite do sil. corrections act like this because we don't have deep-rooted conviction of what will happen and positive. >> there's some who would say y your sort of standard bull market correction doesn't act like the volatility and the violence of the move that we have seen this week. >> it's probably large by other standards but i still think -- i

remember other bull market correction that is felt this bad. january felt pretty awful and maybe less than right now. '98 was very bad. we came back from that. i think we're in a situation of good liquidity and the earnings have to come through. >> tell us, christine, whether they will or not. >> i agree with everyone here. we're ripe for a correction like david said. it's been over 40 months since we have had a proper 10% correction, however, i don't think you see that if earnings come in as they have and so far it's a really great season and rez investigating with investors today and seeing the markets up. if you consider in addition to great earnings, we have had jobless claims at the lowest level since 2000, housing starts rebounding today and consumer sentiment at the highest level of 2007. pair it with a growing earnings picture, we're looking for 9.1% earnings growth for third quarter and i don't think you're going to see markets go down much anymore and the future

picture is good, as well. >> can i ask everybody this question, then? because the usda that, i mean, we never really except for misses on core retail sales, we never saw a weakness. when's the correction about? all about europe? a collapsing inflation expectations? oil? what is this all about? why did this happen? >> the market a little bit of a head case. >> kelly, superstition, mythology and religion flourish when they have to decisions over conditions they have no control. where i'm going with this is ebola was a little bit of a factor this week. not cnbc but all over the media outlets. so i think that's but one. germany thing, also the bond yields rising in europe. greece back up and greece maybe coming back to the fore. venezuela is about to default. that's been widely touted, widely noted. there's people wondering about this. the big news to watch for next

week, china. china will have the beginning that got the communist party, the fourth plane of the committee monday through thursday. maybe they'll come out with something. tuesday, china retail sales, china investment and industrial production, plus third quarter gdp. tuesday's a big day. >> david -- >> emerging markets. >> i want to hear from the other guest on this and talked about china so much. even if it's the slowdown and underlying concerns of europe in recession and the inflation globally, scott. >> yeah, no. look. i think the conditions that exist in the market are still extraordinarily nervous of what's taking place in china and we don't know, right? >> you can never really know. that's the problem. >> we never have known. >> what's -- >> 4% less than it was 3 years ago on gdp. we do know! they're approaching 7.2%. >> wait. so i guess, rick, the question is, do you take it at face value or how are we supposed to know

whether there's more of a deceleration -- >> three years, have we priced in any of the deterioration? china's kicking in a lot less and when it came to retail sales, you all agreed it wasn't bad. control number negative, it was negative. >> no. that's what i'm saying you have a piece of data here and there in the u.s. that missed and most part this clearly is not a case of u.s. growth scare. >> china having bad loans in japan, throwing the kitchen sink and not accomplishing the mission. these aren't big enough for you? >> no, but, rick, they're looking at the dramatic action where you are in the bond market and worrying that the u.s. economy to roll over and experience some of the pain again that we're seeing in chi in. >> i don't think anybody here thinks it will roll over. but i think if europe starts sneezing and start to see particles flying all over the

world we might not go into recession and not going to help us. and what about the credit connection? if the banks go down in europe. that's going to have an affect. >> exactly. last word here. we have to go. steve parker, put it in context then for us. when's the most important in trying to figure out over the next couple of weeks and months as to whether the stock market is more vulnerable here or some kind of policy response? >> i don't think we need more policy response. we get support of three other economic shock absorbers. lower energy prices are a huge positive for the consumer. lower interest rates support the housing market. there are already seeing a tick-up in mortgage re-fis. weaker euro and yen, this's a positive for markets like europe and japan. that's going to help support both economic and earnings growth in some of those markets that have seen a lot of this weakness, raised a lot of concerns of late. >> fair point. everybody, thank you. it's been a long week and a wild

one. >> certainly has. >> try to enjoy the weekend. 50 minutes to go before it all begins. dow up 244 points. surprising that s&p and nasdaq holding up as the russell rolled over here. >> much more straight ahead, of course. two pros weighing in on what the market swings saying about the fed interest rate hike's next year. a cruise ship nightmare. we'll speak exclusively with a relative of someone when's on this cruise ship. next. she's still the one for you. and cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain,

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or a helping paw!ater, everyone needs a helping hand, so mattress discounters good deed dogs is raising money to help train assistance dogs for wounded veterans. veteran: i live independently because of what all it provides for me. and it's huge! there's a lot of wounded, ill, and injured out there just like myself, who just maybe need a little bit of help. tag: you can lend a helping paw too. give at mattressdiscountersdogs.com or any mattress discounters. mattress discounters good deed dogs-- helping dogs help people. all right. welcome back. market's picking up steam here again. dow jones industrial average up 275. looks to be a down week for the dow and the s&p. russell 2000, however, eastbound though it's negative fractionally right now, looks like it's trying to get back to at least the flat line, if not positive and positive for the week and a positive sign by a lot of market watchers. >> as ebola fears clearly not in the market today, there's new

potentially troubling developments. a texas hospital worker who may have handled samples of tom eric duncan who died the virus is quarantined on board a cruise ship in the crib yn. >> while denied from docking on the island of belize, it waited off the coast of mexico scheduled to dock this morning and denied there, as well. the ship is currently making the trip home now to texas. meanwhile, the passengers have been informed of the situation. and on the phone with us now is carrie bond whose family member is on board that very carnival cruise ship. carrie, welcome. nice to speak with you. >> thank you. >> i can only imagine what must be going through your mind as a family member. but for the person themselves who's on this cruise. what can you tell us? >> well, i've actually had very little communication directly with them because, obviously, that's kind of hard. they're in the caribbean.

my understanding is that they were kept five extra hours last night in belize and i'm assuming that that was due to trying to get the passenger off of the boat and flown back to the u.s. which apparently was unsuccessful. as of this morning, i believe the passenger still thought that they were going to be able to get off in cozumel today but i'm learning now that that's not happened. >> carrie -- >> i'm feeling sad for them. >> you're going back? >> i said i'm feeling sad for my family that had been looking forward to this cruise for several months. >> are you worried about your family member's health? >> no, i'm not. apparently the person on board is asymptomatic and no fever and been in quarantine. i would be much more concerned of a stomach virus that spreads easily. just mostly disappointed for them not able to enjoy the vacation. >> that goes back to the central

question people have as to whether it was smart of this health care work tore go on the cruise. was this the person that should have known better? >> you would think so being a health care worker. seems like a bit of a comedy of errors. i understand that the cdc told them that they could go or they changed the rules after the fact. but out of an abundance of caution, i think if it was me i would have stayed behind. >> yeah. just quickly before we go, carrie, i mean, we are learning that guests may be given a credit of some $200 or so we understand. perhaps a discount of some magnitude on a future cruise. do you think that's enough? >> i really kpt say at this point. i'm not sure exactly what's gone on, on the ship. they were able to go on part of the cruise with no issues. so, i guess it will just depend on how much they're offering and

how much more inconvenience there is to the other passengers on the boat. obviously, you know, the one person that's on the boat probably holds most of the blame for that and not the cruise ship. >> carrie, we are going to leave it there. appreciate you calling in. hope everything turns out okay and that you guys don't feel as though that family trip was ruined. we want to bring in industry expert. you're the cruise guy. did -- so who -- how far up do you put the fault, the blame? is it with carnival? is it with the health care worker who should have known better? none of the above? all of the above? >> hi, kelly. i'd like to know who it was because this is the dumbest thing you could have done to have gone. carnival didn't know anything until wednesday and certainly when the cdc contacted them that, hey, you have a passenger

on board that may have come in contact with the ebola virus. i mean, it's just incredibly, you know, it's inconceivable that this person takes a caribbean cruise and the good news is that the medical teams on board took action. isolated, quarantined the passenger and notified the passengers about what was going on. and unfortunately, they did miss two ports of call. they did offer them the $200 ship board credit and a 50% off future cruise credit which is certainly above and beyond anything that carnival was required to do. >> i -- stewart, i have never on a cruise. i don't know the lead-up when you're approaching those days and weeks in advance of getting on to a ship. do they send out any kind of questionnaire? do they ask passengers if they have had any recent health issues before they get on a cruise? and if not, will this change the

protocol in how the whole business is run? >> they're vigilant of their health care questionnaires and that's done at the time that they're checking in. and passengers that are visually impaired, they could be sweating, they're sent for secondary screening. absolutely certain that that will be doing additional screening and that any passenger that is have had any contact with the western african nations or people that had been impacted by ebola within the last 21 days, those passengers will be denied boarding. i mean, no cruise line is going to take -- allow passengers to visibly get on board a ship to negatively impact the experience of 3,000, 4,000 people. >> a last question. the cruise industry trying to deal with image problems related to the sicknesses on board. do you expect it to create longer term drop in ticket sales or an increase in discounting?

anything like that? >> i don't think it will have any impact. this is something that they couldn't control. they're going to be vigilant in protecting the passengers. i've been on 211 cruises myself. and i wouldn't not hesitate getting on a cruise ship tomorrow but it's something that people need to be aware of but i'd rather go on a cruise right now than an airplane. >> all right. stewart chiron, thank you very much. i think scott feels differently here. but it's just a personal cruise preference thing, right? >> i've never been on one. >> me either. >> i would go on one. >> it's not a general bias. >> holidays are coming up. hint to scott's family. morgan brennan? >> federal bankruptcy judge just voted -- just voided the union contract for the trump taj mahal in atlantic according to dow jones. it's one of the largest casinos in atlantic city.

owned by trump entertainment resorts filing for bankruptcy last month and also closed the other casino trump plaza last month. both trump entertainment resorts and investor carl icahn have been calling for this union contract to be voided saying that this casino could not survive without shedding the costly pension and health care obligations that are associated with it. so, the fact that we have had a bankruptcy judge void this essentially is a lifeline for the casino and potentially sets a precedent for other gambling businesses within this hard-hit city and continuing the look at the headlines and bring them to you as they come. back to you. >> appreciate it. morgan, thank you. all right. about 35 minutes to go. dow hanging on to a big gain today. 265 points. s&p 500 up, as well. by 1.3%. nasdaq positive by 1%. russell still stuck in negative territory. we'll see how the next 30 minutes go. >> another one to watch, crude oil. up next, dipping below $80 a

barrel yesterday, was that the bottom for energy prices? the pros weigh in next. when change is in the air you see things in a whole new way. it's in this spirit that ing u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. one that helps you think differently about what's ahead, and what's possible when you get things organized. ing u.s. is now voya. changing the way you think of retirement.

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a lot to me. ♪ welcome back. we begin here with the dominic chu and a quick market flash. hi, dom. >> kelly, scott, watching sharyls of textron. stock moving higher after the maker of cessna airplanes and bell hoips posted better than expected earnings and raised the forecast. shares up by 9% on the session helping to lift other aircraft

and related stocks like boeing, as well. green days on the heels of those textron earnings. back over to you guys. >> thank you, dom. keeping an eye on the broader markets, dow up 270 points. 1,000 off the intraday high of september 19th. s&p look at that. nasdaq up 1%. the russell almost now here could turn green in the final half hour, scott. >> crude oil, as well. gaining ground after 80 bucks. yesterday, jackie has the latest action and what a wild week for you it's been, jackie. >> good afternoon. that's 100% correct. when we saw crude dip below 80 yesterday, we thought it was going lower and then a miraculous rebound pretty interesting to watch happening on the floor. but today we did stabilize as the equity market rebounded a little bit, as well. crude closed over $85 and wti up about 5 cents on the day and

keep in mind you have brent and wti down still 20% and we have come a long way lower now. as you debate with the guests coming up about whether or not we have a bottom here, i want you to consider a couple of factors. first is you have a dollar index with an 85 handle. that is typically not good for crude prices and of course still that oversupply story is out there, as well. nobody looks like they're cutting back supply any time soon. finally, traders telling me in the pits that the action we saw the last two days buying the dip and seeing volatility ahead. last but not least, traders watching to see what does happen with the equity market and such a roler coaster ride this week. next week could bring anything with equities and we have to wait and see what happens. back do you. >> that's for sure. thank you very much. joining for more is joe patrowski. thank you for being here. good news for the u.s. economy or bad news, falling oil prices?

>> fantastic news. i could never understand why the equity markets were so pessimistic on oil going down. it was almost a reversal of a few years ago on the trading floor and oil going up, just before our financial meltdown, people were talking about high oil prices being inflationary. high oil prices are deflati deflationary. low prices are stimulative. by my calculation, the average consumer saves $12,000 in 12 months. >> wow. >> on heating, light and gasoline. which is tremendously bullish. it should add at least two points to the growth rate. >> that's because you're seeing savings beyond just the gas pump, is that right, joe? >> the home heating oil, power, and yeah, we are going to see a decrease in some capital

spending. we spent 27 billion last year on e & p but we are seeing a lot of activity in skid refineries in the shale formations. gas to liquid technologies, gas by wire. remember, 25% of the gas we're producing in the balkan, utica and marsalis we're getting stranded gas and making technology advances to bring it to market. we are well over 9 million barrels a day in production here in the u.s. today. >> i don't think anybody's going to argue with you and one iota, joe, low oil prices is great for the economy, great for consumers. but what if the reason oil prices are falling the way they are is because of weak demand and worries of the global economy and that becomes a more serious issue than just the fact of oil prices down and it's

good? >> i don't personally see that weakness. i know of several domestic manufacturers who have just ramped up and hired people to start doing production of chemicals, plastics, building components here in the u.s. versus imports substitution. we are also going to export a lot more products and, frankly, this argument that i heard yesterday that the saudis may cut back is nonsense. even at today's brent prices, the saudis if they increase production to 9 million barrels which i think they will will generate $270 billion and only have a $30 billion government deficit. by government deficit standards, that's nothing. so i think actually the saudis will use this opportunity to increase production because if they don't brazil is ready to come on with 3.5 million barrels

a day. and mexico. >> points taken, joe. thank you for being here. oil at $83 a barrel mark. see if it does go lower. next week. half an hour to go here. markets higher. 282 on the dow. a look at the russell. down less than .1% right now. going green the last trading sessions and lifted the market higher. >> up 3%, 4% this week and outperformance of the small caps. there you go. there's the heat map right on cue. that's the s&p 500. we're watching that as we head towards the close. 30 minutes to go. jeff cox says he has proof that the alibaba ipo last month was the market's top. actual, undeniable, irrefutable proof, he says. he is smiling off camera as i say that. so guys -- it's just you and your honey.

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dow jones industrial average, s&p 500 and the nasdaq are each up better than 1%. russell 2000 as you can see on the bottom of your screen still in negative territory but a

fractional move. we'll see if it can get small caps back into positive territory today, as well. what's been a really good week, comeback. >> nasdaq up 45. trying to turn back into the green for the week. bertha coombs is in the middle of it all. >> we were up fractionally for the week amazing to say given the ride we have seen and the theme here this week has been when the selling has been intense, the small caps have been the areas of a turnaround, seen outperformance. that's changed today and we've seen a little bit of profit taking it seems on the small caps but that said take a look at the russell 2000 up about 3% for the week which is a pretty big gain even as the index itself remains in correction territory from its july 1st high. amongst some of the sectors that have really outperformed this week, have been the chips. up almost as much as the russell, as well.

they, too, have gotten beaten up. they remain in correction territory. the likes of xilinx doing well and it's not the mega cap names to propel us higher this week in the chip space. back to you guys. >> bertha, thank you. was it just coincidence that the day the biggest ipo happened the stock market as of now peaked? >> well, cnbc.com's jeff cox says not a coincidence and he has the proof. he joins us with courtney ratliff and chris johnson. it's been debated, certainly. heard it. i have raised the issue, as well on the halftime show. you say you have the proof. >> it was a market top. whether it's the market top will remain to be seen. however, it would have precedence. look back to visa in 2008 which was previously the biggest ipo of all time.

that's right around the time of the market top and then 2000 with at&t wireless. that's also a market top and other examples but it coincides with a high level of market certainty. >> you're talking about that past prologue. in other words, your proof is that because the biggest ipos in the past come at market tops this one is that -- >> more than ipos. it's about the flow of money into the market and the ability to make these big deals. they usually come around market tops and sentiment tops. >> courtney, did alibaba suck all the air out of the room for the market? >> absolutely not. we cover all institutional investors and i talked about how we saw people selling out of other names to buy into alibaba. wasn't as if it's new cash causing the market to rally the way that we saw that day. i'll give it to jeff. jeff, it was the top for last month.

may even be the top for the year and depending on what we see with ebola, russia, remainder of europe. i think there's a high possibility that that was the top because it's very difficult to come back even though fourth quarter has historically i think it's something like 23 out of 29 times added up to 4%. i do not see us getting back to that level that we saw last month. >> i mean, sounds like arguing that it's coincidence but, you know, these coincidences all seem to happen coincidentally. if you look at the vix, the spike, came back down today and look at the vix and alibaba itself has done and look at when's happening in the market as far as money goes, i mean, that supply, that money supply into the equity market is kind of dried up and i believe that it was just, you know, i think you stated it very well. taking up the oxygen in the room. it was -- maybe it was just an excuse for the market to say, okay, it is time to catch our breath. we have been waiting so long for

the correction and, you know, here's an example. >> when alibaba went public for being such a big offering, the fact it trading up initially and did so well might have lifted the broader market so that euphoric high. i just looked. i think levels of 88. >> right. right. >> but the s&p still hasn't -- >> chris, go ahead. >> let's take back up a little bit here and look over seven years or so. this is more of an affect of a higher market, these ipos coming at tops than a cause for a correction in prices. >> i would agree with this. >> when i look at it, yeah, i looked at the data, any time we have more than 30 to 35 ipo nz a month it's come within a month of a decline in the markets. this is the people who are getting these ipos to market. doing their job correctly. remember, they get paid more when they get a higher price. so they're out there trying to gauge when the market top is

just as hard as we have. they have more on the line in many issues and don't want to be stuck in a situation like today of jimmy choo bringing in a little more than a billion and could have made much more money and looking at michael kors and need the money in. fact is, they come at the tops because the people who are issuing them want them to be at the tops so they can make the most amount of money. >> right. so, at the very least it raises the question, jeff, of whether the level of euphoria in this current cycle reached a bit of a peak for that moment and that had an impact. >> another number to consider. we have had 24 ipos come to market in october. maybe not a bad thing but i think it's indicative that, you know, alibaba priced so far above the range that it was just an inflection point for the market. >> i want to be clear on

something. quh you say that alibaba was the market top, are you specifically saying it's cause and effect? >> no. i'm not saying causation but correlation and that again feeds into the historic precedent. >> just want to be clear. thank you. >> there's definitely a correlation of market tops and ipo. >> absolutely, absolutely. >> longstanding one. have a great weekend. with 18 minutes to go here, scott. >> dow holding on to a gain of 270. we watch how things shake out for 15 minutes or so. up next, find out why someone here saying the fed could surprise the market at the next meeting. what kind of surprise? is the taper in danger? we'll be right back. y'know what my business

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welcome back. 15 minutes to go to close out this crazy week. it looks like the dow could be up 300 points again and art cashin walked by to indicate $200 million of buy orders on the close and could provide some support looking to see if the russell can turn positive on the session. earlier today our steve liesman asked the question on many people's minds as inflation expectations, oil prices, europe have all been a concern, would the fed, will the fed do more quantitative easing? here's what he had to say. >> i don't expect that we'll need to. the economy got weak enough that it was required, we should do it. i certainly hope and i don't expect that will be the case. but i can't rule anything out at this time. >> well, reaction now with joe lavorna and mori harris. who says the fed may first

extend the current bond buying program more than expected. why do you think that? >> well, they had -- they're still buying 15 billion a month. we think that they'll cut that to 5 billion at the next meeting instead of all the way from 15 to not purchasing anything. the fed just moves very gradually and this would be another example of gradualism. >> this is a big deal. this is tapering the taper. pushing out the final purchases. as you know, it is not about just that amount at stake but the ripple effect, the way it's priced through markets. that's a pretty big deal and you're the first person that i have seen at least making that official call that this is going to happen. >> well, i think -- i personally believe that wage inflation will pick up next year. the fed doesn't necessarily believe that. and i think they're looking for excuses to try to postpone. now, having said that, i think they're still going to have the move by the time of the june meeting with the economic data next year.

>> to raise rates? >> yes. to raise rates. but their attitude has been to communicate caution and they're in no hurry. >> joe, you have made the argument certainly over last several weeks and perhaps longer, the fed brought the sleeping bag and staying a little longer than you like them to and time to pack it up and go home. what do you think will happen now with comments of yesterday and rosengren told liesman today and likely commentary in the weeks ahead? >> the fed has made so many changes over the past year in terms of calibrating policy and not just end the taper, to ending reinvestment first. they have changed everything around. maury is right. the fed is garage you but changed their minds a ton of times and almost anything is possible. i wish if i could rule the world for a day just stop something -- >> they reserve the right to change their mind if conditions change, right? >> they change the rules. here's the thing to happen. it was the unemployment rate and

now it's a whole bunch of other indicators and the jolt series, do you need all five series of jolts back to the previous peak? for the fed to move. the labor force participation rate to go up -- >> before they talk about the public it's nominal gdp. the whole thing, growth, inflation and how they want to get to a certain level of growth. that's what this comes down to. >> it is. but here's what will happen. i agree with maury. the fed still moves june of next year and going to be -- it's very disruptive to markets and then one could imagine a story and actually where they get close to the june meeting and they don't move because of what happened with the taper tantrum and we don't do anything. >> can the fed move if europe, maury, gets worse and worse and worse? >> well, europe has to have quite a negative feedback on the u.s. economy before it stops the fed from moving. remember, next year, they're

looking for the midpoint of expectations on gdp 2.8% provided some way or another getting there with some deterioration and the trade deficit. they're not going to let europe hold them back. they're ultimately focused on the domestic priorities. >> you agree with that? >> absolutely. welcome at the unemployment rate. it's been a straight line down after peaking in october of '09 and if you get any growth anywhere near 3% next year the rate's going to be probably in the low 5s. as maury said, it's hard not to see some wage pressure building. you will have monetary policy as a balance sheet of 4.5 trillion, the real funds rate that's still sharply negative. and yet, somehow the fed exits this seamlessly. i think it's crazy. >> communication breakdown the title of a note this morning and the theme of the economists of the land is certainly clear they're just -- there isn't a theme basically here with the fed. >> the fed -- i said this before. the fed is flying by the seat of its pants.

they have been lucky because you haven't had a lot of inflation and financial stability hasn't been an issue but when it's obvious the fed needs to move, my guess is that people are going to freak out and say the fed's way behind the curve. >> joe, maury, thank you both. appreciate it this afternoon. ten minutes to go here. scott? all right. up next, dominic chu runs through the biggest winners and losers of the week and may be surprised, especially the winners. we're back just after this. the s&p 500 heat map. >> a lot of green out there. traveling can feel like one big mystery. you're never quite sure what is coming your way. but when you've got an entire company who knows that the most on-time flights are nothing if we can't get your things there too. it's no wonder more people choose delta than any other airline. today could be the day. the day we give you hope.

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data check. data check. all right. the mics are always open. you never know. dow and s&p negative on the week. and maybe the russell 2000 positive for the day. it is going to be positive, however, for the week. >> as people take the tally of what has happened in this volatile five trading sessions, dominic chu rounding up the big winners and losers. >> data check, data check. >> a few times. feels good. >> all right. bad news first, guys. sector that is fared the worst this week so far, staples the worst performing sector of the week of the s&p.

and the single worst performing second sector this week is one of the best in 2014. and within the broader s&p 500, stocks that garnered the stocks and this week specialty apparel retailer losing 15% this week after it warned of slowing same-store sales this quarter. single worst performing stock is netflix slumping after an earnings report of members that missed expectations. now for the good news. the two best performing sectors this week, materials up about a percent. industrials also gaining 2%. now as for the best performing stocks in the s&p, xilinx after positive earnings results and single best performing stock in the s&p 500, this rocky week, that crown goes to a railroad company, csx helped by earnings reports and a possible merger in terms of speculation at least.

soda that check, data check. you highlights this week. >> my favorite thing. >> thankfully, that's all i said. thankfully, that's all i said. >> thank you, dom. yep. up 271 here on the dow. >> back with the closing countdown right after the short break. with my united mileageplus explorer card. i have saved $75 in checked bag fees. priority boarding is really important to us. you can just get on the plane and relax. i love to travel, no foreign transaction fees means real savings. we can go to any country and spend money the way we would in the us. when i spend money on this card i can see brazil in my future. i use the explorer card to earn miles in order to go visit my family which means a lot to me. ♪ so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say, a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out...

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go to the board here and show you where we are. the dow jones industrials average up a gain of 1.75%. you know what happened this week? the dow is negative for the week with the s&p 500. russell 2000 has had a very good week, up about 3%, 4%. trying to get to positive territory before we run out of time with about a minute to go. here on the floor with art cashin, bob pisani, what a week. >> people concerned about the russell underperformance today. the russell outperformed all week. the s&p is down and a little bit of mean reversion today. i'm not that concerned about it right now. >> art, what's the takeaway of this week given all of your experience down here? how's it feel for the set-up next week? >> octobers are famous for being volatile and putting in bottoms. that may have been one we saw. i'm not so certain and may need a retest aenl quite impressed to hold on to this much gain going into the weekend.

that's probably because there are strong rumors around that the russian/ukraine thing. >> good to hear from you, as always. art, marinate some ice cubes. we'll be doing the same thing after the week it's been. that's it for us. have a great weekend. the second hour begins now. thank you, scott. welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. we are wrapping up the week on wall street. the dow jones industrial average going out with a gain of about 259 points. we were at the 300-mark earlier in the session. now we held up reasonably well there. concerning the russell 2000 negative on the dachlt s&p as you can see adding about 24. the nasdaq adding about 41 for its part. what just happened? talk about it right now with the panel. joining me, erin gibbs, evan

newmark is back, kayla tauscha and brian kelly. i want to start with you. you've been flagging something all week you're concerned about, that's the condition of rush why's economy. how much of an impact do you think it has here? >> you asking me, kelly? >> i am. >> oh, i'm sorry. yeah. listen. i think the russian economy's in some pretty bad shape. probably not as bad europe and japan but with $80 oil, this's a problem. when you see what's happening with the ruble, that's something that's cause for serious concern. they're spending an awful lot of money to support the ruble and not working. >> it goes back to this point. there's a quote of the venezuelan oil minister right now saying the u.s. is flooding the market with cheap crude, shale oil, effectively. this is a political tool.

there's so many takes to the breath taking drop in oil prices. >> i'll ask you a question, kelly. why is this bad? when the oil price goes down, that puts a lot more money into the pockets of the average u.s. consumer. it puts, you know -- >> think of the -- >> more money to the u.s. economy. i don't understand why that is necessarily bad. >> evan, you are not thinking of the poor oligarcs. >> putin? >> it is easy to make light of this and good for certain consumers but the venezuelan government and people, look a when the's happening in the middle east, the amount, the price they need to sort of keep the social programs running, you know what? the saudis are doing is basically saying what's the pain threshold for all of these countries and when does the u.s. stop producing? there could be spillover effect in the other countries and russia is bad. it was bad before the oil price started to fall because of all

the sanctions and now really bd. >> what does that mean, robert, though, especially heading into the winter? i think i have seen headlines of putden saying there's not going to be -- we won't interrupt the gas supply it is europe or anything like that and up to them to keep it going. >> here's the issue. he is able to distract the russian people with what's been happening in the ukraine and crimea to kind of turn their attention from the economics. if the economics get so bad you could start to see protests in the street, something like that. i mean, i hesitate to say that. it's russia and he as a lot of control of that country. if that's enough pain you could see people in the streets in moscow. >> i raise it all for the reason i think even though we're reminded by some of the data today that the u.s. economy is hanging in there, and doing reasonably well, there's some legitimate concern of the impact of this on the emerging market countries and ultimately export

markets. erin? >> rush why's pretty small. we are only talking about less than 7% of all revenues so they could go away and not have a very minimal impact except for some banking industries. the bigger concern really is europe. so, if russia then sort of defeats -- or lessens the strength of europe even more so and cause further pain for the u.s. but definitely more of a domino effect than a direct effect. >> here at home, kelly, we talk about the fact that low oil prices by default low gas prices for the u.s. consumer is a gift and think about the disconnect of that and retailers and all of the pre-announcements of walmart, ebay, urban outfitters yesterday. they have come out and said that the third quarter will be bad and don't know enough to say that the fourth quarter is good so the fact that lower gas prices wouldn't translate into consumer spending more at these

stores makes you wonder how much flow through there is. >> oil prices are elastic. they can go up and down quite a bit without consumers impact on. that's always been the case. it's an elastic demand. you don't see that relationship. >> we heard last hour, joe petrowski said he thought the drop in oil prices put $12,000 into the pocket of the typical american. >> until it doesn't. >> but they don't come to spend that necessarily. it's just -- the demand just doesn't shift and same as the prices go up. they just -- >> the thing to look at i think over the next couple of months is consumer sentiment, the number today was pretty good, kelly. look at consumer sentiment. look at the impact on the election. there's going to be an election. i think it's interesting to see

what the ebola situation, what the knock-on effect -- >> you brought up ebola. i'm telling you -- >> i said y couldn't talk about it. i said i can talk about it. i think it's very -- >> why would the election have any impact on the economy? we are not going to get tax reform, immigration reform, anything. even if they take the senate, are we going to get anything out of washington that could be good, e rvaevan? >> you can never predict how they play out. it's a nice surprise if the republicans and obama decided to get along. i'm not saying it will happen. >> dream on. >> i didn't say it would happen. i said, you know, the world can have pleasant and unpleasant surprises. >> brian kelly? >> i think everybody's forgetting one thing about oil. we're one of the largest producers in the world now. we're the swing barrel. texas, within of the strongest economies in our country. >> yes. >> with one of the strongest housing markets.

it matters if oil goes down. everybody's all excited about oil going down. it matter to us. we are an oil-producing country now so i think you're nuts if you don't think that has an impact. >> a great point. let's give people another thing to think about. look at the industrial production figures and they're pretty good. energy and oil piece of manufacturing production in this country has doubled since the downturn from 17% to 14% and one of the fastest growing parts of all of the manufacturing activity that we have. >> if this oil slide is them dumping oil on the world because they need to solve an internal struggle within opec, this is temporary. and, you know, it is not so much that the world is changed in terms of what the u.s. is making. basically, you know, they're going to bring it down under 80 briefly and then go back up. could be in three weeks or three

months. >> at some point -- >> why? why? they're the low-cost producer. $10 a barrel to pull oil out of the ground. why would it be 80 bucks for three weeks and then back up? i mean -- >> because they control the supply. >> yeah. exactly. at $10 a barrel. that's how they pull it out of the ground. >> right. >> if they're intent on hitting the u.s. in shale, why wouldn't they drive it down to $55 a barrel? i would if i was the saudis. >> they have social costs, they have -- >> yeah. that's why -- >> based on $80 a barrel. >> robert, that's why they're locking in european consumers and companies to long-term contracts because they're doing it on volume, not on price. >> right. >> so if your scenario, though, which sounds like it means an oil price that could go significantly lower and hurt the u.s. economy plays out, are you saying that this whole concept that the u.s. recovery can maintain itself in the face of this, that we should be thinking twice about that?

>> yes, yes. absolutely. i think if you think that oil, if lower oil prices are going to help consumers, you haven't seen the walmart numbers. if you think that the u.s. decoupled from europe, from china, japan, it won't matter if russia blows up, then go ahead. buy everything with both hands. >> is it possible for the u.s. retailers the problem isn't so much oil or even what we're hearing in terms of other weaknesses that they may be dealing with on the income side as it is the likes of amazon and the googles of the world? i know google's numbers with respect an employe blow-out but don't show any signs -- i understand the core number wasn't great. >> but last retail sales number potentially skewed heavily by the iphone six sales and we need to give it a couple -- maybe another month or so to see how that filters into the retail sales. i just -- you know, maybe could

amazon be taking some market share of walmart? certainly. there's always that interplay but it just seems to me if you're talking about lower oil prices, helping the consumer, it is not showing up in corporate earnings yet. >> you're absolutely right about china. we saw the luxury companies this week, top brands, these guys are hurting in china. it was the great hope for the high-end consumer carrying this global economy for three years and now we have seen that high-end consumer pull back and china's declining when it comes to luxury spending. so china is crucial. it is slowing and we are seeing it in the numbers. you are absolutely right. >> last word to you, brian. >> we're up 300 points. nothing wrong with protection with puts in this environment. >> thank you, sir. appreciate it. brian is coming up with the fast money crew at 5:00 and having much more on this and giving the best way to play the huge earnings announcements next

week. don't miss that. straight ahead here, stocks scoring back after a brutal week. is the worst over for the market? we'll have a guest when the special coverage continues. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. ge us. they take us to worlds full of heroes and titans. for respawn, building the best interactive entertainment begins with the cloud. this is "titanfall," the first multi-player game built and run onicrosoft azure. empowering gamers around the world to interact in ways they never thought possible. this cloud turns data into excitement. this is the microsoft cloud. who would have thought masterthree cheese lasagna would go with chocolate cake and ceviche? the same guy who thought that small caps and bond funds would go with a merging markets. it's a masterpiece. thanks.

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what a week for the market. we survived it. well, most did anyway. dominic chu is takes up on a walk down memory lane reminding us what happened this week and where we broke down. it's all a blur now. >> it is. you guys, i mean, we were all here. taking a look at the wall map. i'll take you through what happened and because you've been watching us all week and know the volatility and start with october 13th, monday. high 16,602. the low all the way down to 16,310. a range of 292 points. a big deal there. then the 14th, a range of 190 points here. 16,464 all the way down to 16,274. again, here, on the 15th, the big down day right at the open you can kind of see a big gap down and all of a sudden we dropped 458-point range throughout the course of the day. that was the high to low and

then all of a sudden here we are today. yesterday, rather. 276 points. we did find some footing here and then capped it off with today. check out here because we saw a nice move to the upside for the plarkts today. 190 points and the total tally range nearly 747 but the steps up and down, well over 1,200 maybe, 1,300-some points. we might get more volatility next week. remember, lots of earnings next wean and later on this hour, taking you through the big earnings reports to lead to more market volatility next week. kelly, this's later on in the hour. stay tuned, dear. >> all right. dom, a long day and week for you. we appreciate it. what should investors do to prepare for when's ahead? as we do that, go to cnbc.com/vote and tell us what you think the markets do next week. i love seeing this. joining us, john calamos and ron

insomna and the panel. john, what do you make of the activity here in october? what are you doing with your money? >> well, i think when's going on here in october, you know, we have had 15 corrections since 2009 and they average about 8%. i think we would be more concerned if we expected a recession going forward. since we're positive on the economy, this seems to me to be a more of a kind of a normal correction. obviously, there is some headwinds in there but overall we feel, you know, the economy continues to grow and that's positive for the markets going forward. >> does that make you favor, john, cyclicals, for example? how do you take interest rates into account here, especially after they went below 2% on the 10-year this week?

>> yeah. that's, you know, we've been thinking interest rates would be going up so having them come down as much as they have in here has been a bit of a surprise. no doubt about that. but it's really i think it's still remains positive for the market because the equity premiums are still with tinteret rates pretty fair in here and all about what the fed's going to do and when they're going to do it and of course one of the uncertainties that we have to fis. >> ron, can you shed some light on that one for us here? >> kelly, i think the fed will do nothing next year and squarely in the camp if the fed moves it won't until december with foreign central banks making the intentions more clear to stimulate whether it's china, european central bank and hints of the fed to delay the end of qe. i think there is as i heard you

discuss all week long a deflation scare going on outside the united states. i would tend to agree with john. the economic data are all very solid relatively speaking. corrections are short, sharp and scary and this is defined that way. i'm not sure we're out of the woods with the correction and i think most of the risk, though, is deflation and recession overseas to keep central banks of doing anything precipitous. >> bringing in the panel. >> i think the big issue remains the issue and the fact that after six years of, you know, terrible economic time, what they say still matters as much as it does. frankly, that's the part that terrifies me the most. the market reacts to, you know, odd comments from fed governors or, you know, fed officials feeling necessary to step into the market. and make comments one way or the other. u.s. growth, it's not going to be stunning. but it's relatively solid. and i think them freaking out every time there's a flet of deflation or every time --

>> that being them or the markets? >> problem from the fed. if the fed was quiet and wouldn't say -- the market knows they will get a reaction of the fed. >> ron -- >> go ahead. >> i'm old enough to remember when the fed didn't say anything and the market responded by watching what the fed did every morning with open market operations, watching what happened on thursday afternoons with the money supply figures and the fed watching community was built up around that 0 pastie at the fed. fed watching is a game for as long as i'm in this business which is 30 years and important whether they're raising, lowering rates or unconventional policy and as important today as they ever were. from 1971 to 1981 we fought inflation and now deflation. the fed was as aggressive then as it is now. just on the other side of the equation. so i wouldn't necessarily blame the fed. the fed has kept us in this game after the crisis of 2008. >> to amplify the point, could

it be said the fall this week started by the fed with a semi, you know, bearish comments initially and then bullard yesterday coming out an making dovish comments which brought us back? do you think, we were all confused about ebola and whether this was what's happening overseas. do you think this is a pure fed phenomenon this week? >> no. not at all. i would say it's a pure global phenomenon. i think the fears of a growth recession in china, return to recession in japan, deflation everywhere else in the world led to a word wide selloff of the united states and if the world sneezes we'll catch cold so i think that's part of the problem. the fed stepped out to reassure people. mr. bullard is changing his mind every three months. >> last word, john, to you. is the correction over and run its course? >> yeah. i agree. it's really deflationary scare that's a macro factor impacting

the markets here. the fell wants inflation. not a lot but 2% inflation. and they're kind of pushing up a rope and we forget that we have a terrible fiscal policy here, as well. can't be just the economic policy. they're pushing up a rope. so i think the macro factor here is global deflation and we have to watch that very carefully. >> okay. understood. thank you both. john, ron. 67% think markets go up next week. so you can take that however you will. >> almost certainly means they go down. >> i know. it did on monday. over to dominic chu for a quick market flash. dom? >> here's a new development in the dollar store's battle here. family dollar shares up 1% right now after activist hedge fund issued an open letter to the board of family dollar saying that they have a combined beneficial interest of about

4.9% of the shares. they are writing to inform the board that they've nominated their own slate of directors. they took this action in order to protect interests as one of family dollar's largest shareholders and to ensure that the board does everything within the power for dollar general with an even playing field and continuing efforts to acquire the company at price levels clearly superior says the letter to the consideration for dollar tree right now. that, remember, family dollar and dollar tree if a combined merger agreement and the reservations about the process led to the signing of the merger agreement and say today they would like to be clear nominating a slate of directors was not the preferred path. they have today or tomorrow to put the slate of directors together. but again, eliot management, the headline here, saying they want to nominate a slate of directors for family dollar and engage in conversations with dollar general about a merger agreement.

they're currently in an agreed upon terms right now. over to you. >> family dollar tree. has a nice ring to it. thank you. ebola fears dragged down the market this week despite the gains concerns of the deadly virus loom large. you have health care workers exposed to a victim that died buying on planes and cruise ships. how unprepared was this country, the hospitals, the cdc? all of that's next. an unprecedented program arting busithat partners businesses

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welcome back. now america has a so-called ebola czar and meg terrell has the details on the new position. meg? >> that's right. we learned the president is naming ron explain, former chief of staff to vice president biden and al gore for the ebola response coming after a grilling yesterday on capitol hill of cdc director and others over mistakes made in dallas and lawmakers making calls for travel restrictions of west africa and they were joined today by texas governor rick perry and we know that nina pham transported to the hospital at the nih. dr. fauci saying she is in stable condition and meanwhile the cdc is reaching out to anyone who had contact with amber vinson. she took flights to and from dallas and transferred to atlanta. health officials in dallas are monitoring 50 health care workers going into the room of thomas eric duncan and say we could see more cases in the

coming days and learned overnight a dallas hospital employees that handled samples of duncan is on cruise ship and doesn't symptoms 19 days after contact but she is in isolation and they're returning to texas sunday morning. kelly? >> meg, thank you for now. let's bring in michael leavitt. welcome back. thank you for being here. >> my pleasure, kelly. >> i mean, what did you think seeing the headlines about the workers went so far to call the cdc, health care workers in this country, they have been through years of training and yet they still went on the cruise ship, went on the airplane? it seems like a complete failure of common sense. i don't know what else to call it. >> obviously, they don't understand the seriousness of it. i suspect they understand it now. and hopefully all the rest of us are learning from it. if we should ever find ourselves in such a situation. >> shouldn't the cdc have known better? i have to give them credit.

at least they said, should i be getting on the plane? the answer was yeah, sure, that's fine, go ahead. >> that should have happened differently. again, i hope that tightens up the protocols at cdc. we need them to be responsive, crisply prepared. >> just last question, the last time you were on, i thought it was interesting the way in which you said this ultimately comes down to preparedness at the local level and didn't leave us reassured at the time and retrospect rightly so. is there now at least a recognition of the cdc to and can be playing a role to the hospital systems, health care workers writ large however you reach them, there's a protocol to follow for handling very serious cases? >> it's unfortunate that we all have to learn lessons in the way we are. i know every hospital in the country right now is thinking through how they would respond

if a case should go through the door. and they're watching texas presbyterian hospital being -- suffering very serious financial and reputational and personnel consequences as a result of what they did. again, it's -- i think it was mark twain who said a man could learn lessons no other way than holding a cat by the tail. regrettab regrettably, they held a cat by the tail and we are learning from it and getting better as a result of this and the damage from their mistake will not be overwhelming. >> bringing in the panel here. >> let me ask you a question of the west africa travel ban. let's say you were the hhs secretary today. would you be in favor of some kind of west africa travel ban or at least examining the passports of, you know, people who had western african passports coming through immigration in some different manner? >> well, i was the secretary of health during the -- one of the big pandemic scares of h5n1 and

we gamed this out. we deployed think tanks to study it. ep deem idemiologists mapping i studying it and said it sounds like a simple response but the reality is when you go beyond that, there are a lot of problems with it. i mean, for example, and these countries where they have it now, there are no direct flights to the united states. so that means that people to get to the united states will go to barcelona or london or paris or munich and then they'll get on a plane to come to the united states. so does that mean we ban those flights? or does it mean we screen those passengers more carefully? that's the dilemma. i'm not an expert on this. i can only tell you what i heard from those that studied it and i think that's the problem of everyone dealing with. there are no experts. we are guessing what will happen and look at it from two

standpoints but i think professionals are saying, this is not an easy solution. >> that's for sure. we'll just leave it there, mr. secretary. thank you again for joining us. appreciate your perspective as the ebola cases continue to spread. and now, hospitals and health care providers checking up on whether they're covered from ebola's potential impact on the business. this is a big story with mary thompson and more details. mary? >> reporter: insurance check-up might be a wise thing for hospitals bracing to treat ebola patients y.? financial impact can be devastating for some of them. a report points out health care worker who contracts the disease on the job, they'd be covered by worker's compensation policies but if they sue for negligence, well, the hospital needs liability insurance to cover any damages coming from that suit. for hospitals owned by publicly traded companies, mistakes and breaches in protocol could hurt the revenue and the stock price and what could follow, lawsuits

alleging mismanagement so they're providing protection there. a bigger threat could be an interruption like a government shutting down a facility. viruses are usually -- fire or hurricanes. a special policy might be required for disruptions of ebola and believe it or not they're out there right now. brokers with disease business interruption policies and ebola interruption coverage. experts say many firms do have modified business interruption policies that actually have language in them relating to interruption due to communicable diseases and clean-up from the diseases. kelly, back to you. >> all right. mary, there is always a business in it somewhere. thank you. stocks rallying today. the banks have been a culprit in this selloff.

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a big week of swings brought winners and losers and you can

count banks in the losing column. kayla is following this story for us. >> it actually wasn't that bad, kelly. we did have a few instances of trading revenue picking up. investment fee deals, that was up, too. but the key ingredient for the banks with such consumer-facing business lines is loan growth. this is the missing ingredient because consumers deleveraging after the financial crisis. paying off credit cards. they're saving more money and they're making sure not to borrow so much on the house or the car and even though we have started seeing some of those loans pick back up, with the banks wanted to show investors is really blockbuster loan growth across did board and so i made a comment on "closing bell" earlier this week saying we are not seeing loan growth. i gt into a discussion with a couple people on twitter and viewers over e-mail saying i thought we saw single-digit percentage growth year over year and i wanted to clarify where it's coming from and why i was

making those comments because there are two portions that you can actually borrow from at a bank. you have a normal consumer banking or consumer and community banking as some of them call it which is credit cards, student loans, auto loans, you are, you know, your miscellaneous, i'm a middle class consumer to start a business loan and then you have asset management that's largely high net worth client who is are taking out a loan to finance, as robert knows well, a boat or maybe -- >> a plane. real estate. >> buying me a yacht? >> let mess guess where it's coming from. i'll go out on a real limb and guess it's from high net worth clients. >> exactly where it's coming from and even though that's a better sign than not anywhere it's a tale of two borrowers. breaking down jpmorgan, flat year over year, 391 billion dlar last year. $391 billion this year. it was almost exactly unchanged. asset management loans, up 15%

over last year. bank of america, consumer banking was down 3.5%. that's also because that bank has some legacy loans they're letting run off the portfolio and not an exact comparison but you can see for merrill lynch wealth management, loans up 8% and the source of the loan growth at the banks and the federal reserve has been putting data out week over week that's showing since about june 6% growth. very consistently. but the problem is it's coming from one set of consumers. >> her's an interesting question, though. the banks undervalued far long time. relative to how they would normally quote unquote trade. so the selloff this week took people by surprise and does it reflect the concerns in the earnings report or just reflect broader global diseninflation growth scare? >> there is a lot of growth that was baked into the banks and maybe a little bit of that coming off at this point and remember the bulk of the banks reported on tuesday and wednesday of this week which

were the worst market days this week and then mixed trades yesterday and today so morgan stanley trading pretty well today given the fact that it happened to come out on friday, a day up triple digits instead of down 470 points. you know? give or take 100 points. >> not really a bank. not really a bank. they're an investment bank. i'm not trying to -- >> biggest brokerages. >> but not giving out car loans. >> kayla's making such an important point. number one, inequality in the country. not just that the asset rich is richer but nose that get credit gotten it on spectacular terms and the rest of them can't get it. number two, i think the banks have kind of underestimated as they did in 2007 how much of a risk wealthy clients are. they just assume, well, they're rich. they're fine. we saw boat lending, art lending, jet lending, banks in 2009 said we're never going to do this again. prices for those assets crashed. >> right. >> and they ended with private

jets, art and boat that they didn't know what to do with. >> we may see a change an announcement of fannie mae and freddie mac with the 3% mortgage loans -- >> we hope so. >> they have to be so cautious because of the really strict -- >> will it change? >> so hopefully -- >> they say there's not demand. >> so people have any sense of history here or irony? now we're going, oh good, fannie and freddie back in the game. where have you been? >> credit score of 727 being in the top 20% just to get a mortgage. >> only taken five or six years for history to repeat itself. >> i know. >> someone rejected the idea on twitter -- >> lending money to a first-time homebuyer. >> there's an idea. >> new market. >> head explodes. kayla, thank you, very much. our special coverage of the

week's roller coaster ride continues. we'll be right back.

♪ the all new, head turning cadillac ats coupe. it's irresistible. ♪ welcome back. up and down week for markets and nothing like the crash of 1987, is it, allen wasler? >> you couldn't tell that from the traffic levels this week. kelly, it was wild. the market coverage drew so many people in. at one point on wednesday, we pinned the needle. we had more traffic than our

realtime software could actually count at the time. >> wow. >> that's like going down the highway and the speedometer is spined out. what do you know? anyway, we installed a better speedometer now and counting it all. now, number two for the week was actually the peter thiel interview, the venture capitalist. >> wow. >> that rode through the whole week. coming back to see the comments about government debt and the massive bubble that's building up there. and then finally, not to be denied, no matter what the market's doing, apple in the headline will get readers. but what the big puller was apple accidentally leaking the information about its new i pads ahead of time. that's the story that got the major traffic. quh the event came, wasn't that much. the week for us, kelly, phenomenal. people piling in. >> i'm sure. >> we give that realtime market information. >> i bring up the 1987 reference because we're coming up on the

anniversary and you guys have some special stuff planned. >> a special little package planned, a nice interview with art cashin to go on sunday, the anniversary day. thank you for plug. >> good stuff and great reading. have a great weekend. appreciate it. everyone is hard at work at headquarters. earnings season in high gear next week. will strong results be enough to keep today's rally alive? and does mobile dating at tinder have plans to go public? we'll speak to the co-founder and ceo sean radd monday on "the closing bell." when change is in the air you see things in a whole new way. it's in this spirit that ing u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. one that helps you think differently about what's ahead,

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welcome back. we get your apple and chipotle. two of the big brands reporting earnings next week and could have a big impact on the market. let's get a preview now with our dom chu. >> hi again, kelly. a boatload of earnings next week with full swing and high gear. techs are taking center stage with the dozen dow components and 113 different s&p 500 companies reporting. so let's talk about that monday. like you said, ibm, also apple

and chipotle. ibm and chipotle after the bell. on tuesday, you have coca-cola and then mcdonald's in the morning and then yahoo! after the close. that's just tuesday. now, moving to wednesday, boeing and then there's glaxosmithkline posting the quarterly results in the morning. at&t reporting in the afternoon after the closing bell an and then on thursday more, more technology stocks. amazon and microsoft after the close with the likes of caterpillar and gm earlier in the day in the morning. and then that brings us to friday and that's bristol myers and ford in a busy week for earnings. about 113 different s&p 500 companies and they all could be catalysts for perhaps more volatility. kelly, in the market. over to you. >> all right, dom. get your rest. you need it. thank you. erin, which of those, mine, so many big names but what are you going to be watching? >> one other thing to mention is

family $. >> there you go. >> but yeah. so next week is really i see it as an old-school tech, oracles, ibm and apple and industrials to also reconfirm what we saw this week. we haveapples. and we got great numbers from honeywell, ge. so i want to see if that's followed up by lockheed martin and rh industries, as well. and caterpillar and boeing, as well. >> but you're not worried? do you think the earnings opportunity all fundamentally are telling us everything is hunky dory? >> there were blown out numbers. and we're seeing earnings trends come up from starting the quarter at about 5% earnings growth. we started at 4.8% and now at 5.3%. so we're seeing good numbers. >> kelly, i don't want to interrupt, but i will. what evidence do we have over the past week that earnings have mattered at all?

>> what evidence do we have the last six years. >> that's my question. this past week was basically about the price of oil. the fed. and the karn omg or depending on how you look at it the volatility. >> i think it mattered for netflix. >> how can you -- netflix is like -- trades like a high beta stock. it has nothing to do with what is going on in the rest of the world, does it? >> you can weigh in, but it does matter for specific names. more broadly speaking, larry kudlow says the mother milk of the stock market. >> yes, there is always the push and pull. but there is a specific pe range that we tend to trade in. >> i'm not arresting with that. all i'm arguing about is that there is one fed governor who comes onwith that. all i'm arguing about is that there is one fed governor who comes on and he says something and when it goes on with earnings, everything goes in and out the window in a in an though

second. >> but that's a reflection of the environment. >> when will we be at that point? kind of scary. >> because of where the ten year was. it had nothing to do with the earnings but about future earnings based on how low rates were going to be. >> you you bring up a great point which is that you could argue a lot of these moves are about pricing in future earnings. and by the time neb comes out with the current quarter, how relevant is that. >> it's about this will quarter's earnings, whether it's a one time event. with the financials, they're blowing away the earnings numbers, but because we have rather lowered expectations over the next 12 months, we're not seeing the moves. whereas the industrials, they're looking great for the next 12 months for quite a few. they have been raising -- >> like future orders which are the key ingredient people watch

for. so you have some sense of how good it will be for the next 12 months. >> and it goes back to the question about the multiple, a reflection maybe of optimism generally speaking. but i think the multiple for the s&p has now gone back towards 15, maybe below it. which is the lowest since february and obviously that depends on not just the price swinging away, but the earnings stech estimates, too, for next year. if you believe they will hold, then it makes the entry point more interesting. >> i think the market has preferred a bad economy and good fit. and evan is right unfortunately. what i'm looking at next week are the hedge funds. and we haven't seen the dust settle yet, but you know based on what we saw, and jim cramer talked about this he will low queptsly, that there were a lot of hedge funds this a lot of pain. and we might see some hedge funds not necessarily close -- >> look at all the commodity funds which have had to shut

down. >> so when i talk to wealthy people about what worried them, it was their hedge fund exposure. >> and that is something else to watch. we'll leave it there. when we come right back, we'll have other thoughts about where these markets stand and whether evan is finally going to get out of his tvt trade. ♪ (train horn) vo: wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities. an unprecedented program arting busithat partners businesses with universities across the state. for better access to talent, cutting edge research, and state of the art facilities. and you pay no taxes for ten years.

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welcome back. it's because i love evan that i can tease him so much. but this goes to an important point. how many times have people called the end of the bull market in bonds and i bring up the tvt, it's a way to short bonds. >> long term traders. >> but it's been a wrong trade. >> it's been probably the most wrong trade of the entire year. i didn't get in to it or start buying it until it was around $60 and now it's $51 or something. i don't believe in technicals and all this kind of -- i'm not a -- >> unless it supports your view. >> exactly. but the ten year went down on wednesday and the 30 year was at like 1 -- >> or well below 3.

>> like 2 pp.8 or something. and there was a woosh in the treasury market which you rarely see. and i'm hoping that represents the top of the bond bubble. but these bond bubbles, a bubble can last really, really long periods of time. and so i don't view this as like a trade or anything like this. i just happen to be of the view that a year or two years from now, bond yields will be higher than they are today. >> suddenly creates the conditions for much higher interest rates. >> we're not even talking about much higher. for me to break even, the 30 year only has to be over 3 -- the 30 year has to get over 3.3. so we're not -- >> which is normal. >> so we're not talking about huge an economy that is grows at around plus or minus 3% and a lot of companies paying

difference denied dividends ov. so to have a ten year trading below -- it's not right. i'm not saying that i'm 100% right. but over time, people at the fed and people who are watching this on tv should be hoping that the ten year is closer to 3% than 2%. because if it's not, there will be a whole boat load of trouble for a lot of people going forward. >> i remember when evan was long financial mis-2009, welded come in every morning and say evan, how are those financials doing. and it took a long time, but eventually -- >> eventually i'm usually right. eventually. >> so i agree that i think the bonds are definitely overbought. when it will happen, we were definitely wrong earlier in the year. we thought that by now we'd already see higher rates. so i do agree. however, it's because we don't live in a bubble. we do have these macro pressures. and this could be continued for a very long period of time. >> outside the u.s.. is that -- would every agree that is what to watch next week?

>> china. >> and apple pay. >> and the launch of apple pay on monday. so look out for those especially annoying checkout lines. that does it for us. thank you so much to the panel and evan. >> my pleasure. >> my pleasure. >> i love talking about how wrong i am. >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, this is "fast money". a volatile week on wall street mercifully comes to ap he san e. the s&p still posting its fourth week of losses. even oil coming back today. posting its third straight week of losses. so can you trust this boun