i'm going to be out of them. >> marissa did not convince you? >> no. they have to do a better job deferring taxes. >> she said she is going to figure out how to do it. >> i hope so. within that context, i hope durbin is around and watches the inversions. >> bayer or meyer? >> meyer in the street should be sold. >> mario gabelli, thank you. >> thank you. >> thank you for joining us. >> we're done. time for "squawk on the street." good-bye. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange. faber is on assignment. probably the busiest day for earnings. caterpillar, 3 m airlines, all leading the charge. cat is nudging the market higher. ten-year yields up 224. german manufacturing, a pleasant surprise.

the big question though, does oil once again determine how stocks are going to move today? we are going to keep our eye on that. our road map begins with the market rally built by caterpillar. the company handily beating estimates. airlines and automobiles helping accelerate those gains. results from gm, united continental and more. some mixed results in media. we'll run through the numbers from yelp, at&t, comcast, as well. first up, futures on track to open sharply higher. a big reason for the positive sentiment. blowout results from caterpillar. earned $1.72 a share in the corner well above estimates raising their full-year guidance. >> we had steady sales and steady production and getting after lean manufacturing. all our operational margins, getting good cost reduction, top

line from our supply base, as well. operationally, really makes me feel good about this year and this quarter. >> cost cutting, for sure. in this environment, they are now looking full year $6.50. earlier in the year they were at $5.85. >> this has become a battleground for the shorts. no sooner did they report than i had four people say how lousy it was. what i find funny is when you basically had a china operation that's terrible. when you have a company that has historically missed and you have fantastic leverage on very little sales growth. it's okay to say it was a good quarter. there is nothing in this quarter that is surprisingly horrible. i know that may not be enough, but the theme of this quarter so far is stocks have been going down because they are supposed to be surprisingly horrible. then they are not surprisingly horrible. there is nothing i can say other than caterpillar is what i find

amazing. we are having 5% revenue growth so far this quarter. 11.1% earnings per share growth. all people think about is how horrible things are. >> they are historically conservative on their macrooutlook. world economic growth could improve in 2015. >> big theme i have seen. a lot of it is hinged on the idea germany will not commit suicide. they'll do something. a lot of it is that we may see a bottom in china now that they are purging the state companies that are so fat. if we were back four weeks ago. if caterpillar were at $110, i would say this isn't good enough. but at $94, $95, it is good enough. boeing yesterday was $129 going into the quarter. it wasn't good enough when you read about the dreamliner. so it gets hit. it depends on where the stock was going into the quarter. >> what about all the bears i'm hearing from today. that is you buy back a lot of

shares. your results are going to look good. they haven't borrowed to buy shares. >> do we want them, there was a scene in a show i liked called "the shield." a guy named lem made a lot of money hijacking on the armenian money trade. he burned all the money putting it in a furnace. the shorts would like caterpillar to take the money and burn it rather than buy back stock. if caterpillar would put up a lot of plants, would the shorts say this is great? what they clearly want to do is have the money shoved into a furnace. one time i said this about chevron. that's what they were doing. they were none too happy. chevron bought back a lot of stock. it was brilliant. >> we'll talk more about cat all morning long. let's get to the airlines and gm. planes and automobiles joining the earnings parade today. general motors third quarter, 97 cents. that did beat forecast. helped by strong demand in north

america and china. revenue rose. southwest, american, jetblue all recording record earnings while profits at united doubled. $85.8. southwest, lower fuel costs, margins are higher. good environment to run an airline. >> southwest is such a good company. it runs like a real company. a lot of the airlines come back. i like what's happening in american. delta was terrific. what i loved about southwest, we had an ebola scare in this country. you would have expected a precipitous decline as we got with sars in 2002/2004. what we saw from southwest, not only did they not blink, the numbers were really good even after the quarter. >> gary did say they obviously had all kinds of meetings regarded preparedness for ebola when the cdc is tracking everyone from west africa for 21 days. >> they went from thinking, you

know what, this is nothing. it's like a fever to cdc being what a lot of americans wanted. whether you think they are right or not, that's what they wanted. what was great about southwest. it was almost as if the shorts, again the shorts are controlling a lot of data here. they didn't want them to show they were idiots or to show it's really bad. if southwest didn't have meetings, they should be shamed by the president. the fact is the panic didn't extend to the customer. >> let's listen to what gary kelly did tell the guys this morning on "squawk." >> from a macroperspective, the economy has been more stable this year. energy prices have been very stable for close to the last two years until the recent drops. then travel demand has been very strong. obviously, the results go through the end of september. even beyond the end of the quarter into october, our demand has continued to be very strong.

all things look really positive. >> let's quickly do gm here. slight revenue miss. north america operating profit $2.5 billion. slightly larger operating loss in europe. trying to reduce head count in russia. >> right. gm is an example of a stock that has come down just horrendously and has been a bad stock. what did we think in russia? obviously, russia shut down for the quarter. the numbers out of russia and gdp growth are horrendous. people are thinking gm is not as bad as ford or the ford outlook that mark fields gave us. >> about south america largely. >> south america was very good. >> compared to what shields led us to believe. >> gm, you could say underpromise, overdeliver. we were not sitting there talking about an incident that occurred where there were a lot of fatalities that fineburg's gotten involved in.

this was not a recall quarter, it was an earnings quarter. i expect a backlash in the day someone will find fault in gm. in the end, we want europe to be stronger. a lot of what we are seeing is pmi france bad, germany better. we have to monitor these countries the way we did in 2012. i wish we didn't, but we have to. >> finally on the earnings front, yelp tumbling in the premarket after warning on current quarter revenue. comcast better than expected quarterly earnings. revenue a tad shy of consensus. at&t missed with its results cutting full-year guidance. average revenue per phone user. they are trying to get people to pay full price for their phones, wean them off subsidies. fewer than expected sign-ups. >> the operating cash flow -- >> at nbc up 13%. that's with able ad revenue coming in a little bit. >> we remember when we weren't

mentioned when we worked for ge, we played for pride. i look at what the network, what i was going to say they, but we, has done with nbc. it's obvious there was a lot of profit to be had there. comcast, if they are cutting the cord -- i don't know what it would look like if they weren't. if comcast were bad, i've done enough career suicide, it wouldn't bother me to say it's bad. >> at&t, we mentioned. yelp is interesting. 5 cents beats by 2 cents. they are looking at 50% year on year revenue growth. that is clearly not enough. >> no. i didn't under -- i went through the yelp quarter over and over again. i can't figure out why it wasn't so good. there was a line in the quarter that was amazing. they said the google monopoly hurt their growth. it's the local that is bothering people.

when i see google monopoly and algorithm, i think that's what they did with ebay. going over with analysts this morning, we can't figure out why they missed. that is worrisome. i found yelp worrisome. i've been a big fan of yelp the concept. >> people are worried broadly about these $2 to $5 billion companies moderately profitable, expensively price and a lot of risks. >> if any of them came down, i think yahoo would buy them. i think yahoo needs to make an acquisition. i was out with uber people last night. that may be valued at $10 billion whatever, but the private market is valuing these companies higher than the public market. uber is big. >> stories in the "journal" about hedge funds looking to get into venture capital. >> all they do is bet against companies when they are going up. then when they're down, panic

and sell. hedge funds -- remember last wednesday was a day where the hedge funds will live in infamy. >> yes. we'll talk more about that this morning. also we had to deal with here in the markets yesterday, what happened in canada. a lot of questions remain in canada after that gunman killed a soldier then walked into the halls of parliament, began shooting there yesterday. michelle caruso cabrera joins us with more. >> roughly 50 minutes, the canadian parliament will sit for their session as previously scheduled. that tweeted from the minister of industry saying, our democracy cannot be intimidated by today's events. the area known as parliament hill remains offlimits to visitors due to the ongoing investigation. it was cleared of security threat last night by the royal canadian mounted police. when parliament meets, it will be almost exactly 24 hours after two shootings occurred in the canadian capital of ottowa that left one soldier dead.

he leaves behind a 6-year-old son. also dead, the suspected shooter identified by the canadian police as 32-year-old michael zehaf-bibeau. the toronto globe and mail citing several forces that he was recently designated a high-risk traveler. which means the country feared he would travel abroad to commit crimes and his passport had been taken. what is not clear at this point, was there more than one shooter? all the early statements from law enforcement yesterday indicated they were looking for multiple shooters. they started to back away from that late in the day. as of today, they are saying it's too early to say this was just one individual.

>> there were two words we heard yesterday fluid, meaning it's not over, and lockdown. that caused the futures to go down more than when oil reversed. >> i was going to ask what was the bigger dynamic? >> i think ottowa. the oils future contract did expire. october 22nd was expiration date. you can imagine a lot of financial buyers are not going to buy more oil. i think the ottowa story -- we are all conditioned when you get one incident, you are going to get more, until proven that you're not. i found that one -- i don't know why. i love canada very much. my first reaction was no, no, please not canada. fliers played last night with pittsburgh and sang "o canada." that's a special place. >> our thoughts are with all our canadian friends. >> right. i've been to ottowa. i said, oh, my, ottowa?

>> michelle, thanks for that report. thanks to amazon and other retailers, you might have to spend more for free shipping. we'll fill you in on that. later royal caribbean ceo richard fain, how us the cruise line operating handling concerns about ebola? premarket looks like good action. a lot driven by solid earnings. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you.

so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

dow looks to open about 160 points or so after losing some ground yesterday after what happened to oil. inventory numbers are rough. >> "wall street journal" say online shoppers have to spend more to get free shipping. retailers are trying to cover the cost of the perk. amazon, best buy and the gap are jacking up the minimum you have to spend to get free shipping. on average you have to buy $82 in merchandise to qualify. that number will probably go up over time. >> target went the other way. coupled with what federal express was saying. the word people are using behind the scenes is resilience. the consumer is resilient.

i think the consumer loves gasoline being down here. they will not mind their heating bill either. the consumer hates washington turmoil. washington has been off the front page. >> true. >> amazon does report tonight. once again, we will have the conversation about how much patience we have to let bezos spend the way he likes to spend. >> i counted i think five spends. i'm going to do an analysis how many times they use the word "spend." google did a lot of bad when they said spend to get the best people. we want the best people fired, that's what the market says. there are certain companies doing so well they are hiring the greatest minds. by the way, those are the ones that have very good stocks. >> you mentioned gas prices helping the consumer. jobless claims, the four-week average is at the lowest in almost 15 years. >> when five liesman said that -- steve does great work -- why aren't we talking more about

that? maybe it's considered to be, if you say that, you're making a political judgment. he's not making a political judgment. he is doing a moving average. i thought that was stark. i was thinking we are back before the great recession. that is a terrific number and it does matter. >> we are going to keep our eye on that. you mentioned some of the data we got this morning. germany, october pmi. was an expansion? we were looking for a contraction. >> we got the architectural billings number yesterday. caterpillar plus 15. north america is very -- united states is very strong. if china got better, if latin america got better. >> if other stories didn't get worse. >> yes. would you say the market is

undervalued. >> we'll get cramer's mad dash in a moment. we'll count down to the opening bell and one last look at the premarket on this thursday, a busy day for earnings. we needed 30 new hires for our call center. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates

from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2. at a special site for tv viewers; (shouting) location. here's the location that matters the most. here. or here. or here. it's wherever this is. to get customers to come here and stay here, you're going to need an app that connects to all your systems.

so they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. before the competition does. it's tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. markets are going to open to the up side as we get to the busiest day for earnings. >> this is the worst day of the year if you're a homework-driven person. >> let's get cramer's mad dash. >> this is not an earnings story. this is an actual initiation of

barclays and alibaba. one of the reasons alibaba is such a home run. it has 30% growth and sells 30 times 2016 numbers. 40% growth rate, they are willing to pay at least one times growth rate. don't forget, yahoo. marissa meyer kept back to having to sell on the ipo. numbers are extraordinary. it continues to be something the growth guys love. >> still waiting to see what kinds of things they will be interested in buying. ex-china. >> they have a lot of money. i was talking about uber last night. they are funding a competitor of uber. remember who i lucrative alibaba is. they both spend a lot of money.

>> for long term. >> 3 m is the core position. he is still getting great organic growth. tightens the reins, but very positive. he is a great manager, but doesn't get a lot of credit because he is not a glory hound. he consistently puts up good numbers. behind the scenes, he is delivering all over the world. >> they still see three to four to five on the year. if you were going to see a warning about the dollar, would we have heard it today? >> thank you. there was a cut of numbers not long ago which said the dollar will kill them. some managers invent a lot of new product and get great numbers. they invent a huge amount of new

product. theirs is one of the most exciting websites. you'll see why 3m is winning. those who sell 3 m will be tempted to hope the market comes down to get back in. >> the focus is on a lot of these global industrial companies. they have consistently good numbers. he is in the wall of fame for the last year. he is terrific. >> we'll get to a lot of the other names. opening bell just a few moments away.

there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. ♪ there's confidence... then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence.

our expertise, technology, and high quality parts means your peace of mind. it's no wonder last year we sold over three million tires. and during the big tire event, get up to $140 in mail-in rebates on four select tires. ♪ you are watching cnbc "squawk on the street." opening bell a couple of minutes here at the big board. a lot of things going the market's way today. decent economic numbers out of europe. earnings are without a major blow-up. aside from at&t's revenue outlook. >> and yelp. caterpillar, very significant. people are saying to me, jim, don't be confused. cat speak, when they say 2015 sales won't be significantly different from 2014, that does not mean they are flat. maybe not as much as up as 15%. that's important.

dunkin' donuts, i didn't like their phrase. it will be a challenge to achieve the low end of the full year, i'm not crazy about that. >> upping the number of stores they think the country can sustain. >> right. that is consistent. i would like to see them blow away the number and they are not doing it. we haven't talked about union pacific. union pacific is such a great tale. excuse me looking away from the camera. it was monster. some of the numbers for union pacific when you go over the line items, i'm talking industrial up 19%. ag up, intermodal. automotive only up 3%. and coal up. >> apple, we should mention, having hit an all-time high yesterday looks to do it again today on looking for any real news on it. >> i just continue to think -- there was an article in "the new york times." the apple ecosystem. that's not enough.

but people realize it was apple's to win and they won. >> let's await the opening bell. look at the s&p at the top of your screen. a lot of people talked about the internals yesterday being relatively benign. >> i felt that way. that was important. a lot of people were complaining we didn't hit bottom. oil bounces back. thinking about apple, the at&t number is not bad. >> good point. at the big board, aol celebrating makers, a platform of women's stories. >> i remember that acquisition. very good acquisition. >> at the nasdaq flexion therapeutics. almost uniformly positive. >> i hate that. the bears needed down. union pacific. >> there is tim. >> tim armstrong of aol working

the floor. just came by to say hi. >> tieless. i don't know, maybe i can be tieless one day. >> under armour beats by a penny. they are boosting their full year revenue view, not by a ton. people wanted more. >> no. kevin flack is an underpromised/overdelivered guy. nike had an unbelievable quarter. people started thinking if nike is unbelievable, under armour will be unbelievable. kevin plank does not like to juice his stock. people who know him, he thinks of himself as an nfl coach. he does not go into the next game saying we are going to crush him. we've got to see. every game is a different game. let's not forget. >> stock is up 50%. >> yes. it's a good product. the expansion there is going to be so amazing. be aware you might have to buy it back higher when the smoke

clears. >> apparel up 26 and foot wear up 50%. >> that was great. vf corp is an interesting study to switch directions. they were down a lot, but line by line was amazing. we didn't mention celgene yet. that historically sold off when it reports. their bread and butter plus 19. they have stakes in so many different companies. that's important. lam research did not raise the guide. there is a lot of belief here now. >> defense companies continue to knock it out of the park. lockheed is one of the winners. boeing is challenged. general dynamics, highest operating net in four years. highest margins in six years. >> i am disappointed in

retrospect lockheed martin didn' didn't. northrop grubman is amazing. these are companies that saw it company and are doing a better job than people realized. >> caterpillar, $172 was a blowout. >> people figured caterpillar, that is a layup short. sometimes the market confounds you. you see 3m up four. people expected them to miss the quarter. when you expect to miss a quarter, stock goes from $148 to $138, analysts are getting negative, then you get a short squeeze. that is what's happening there. >> cat and 3m are the best performing dow components. at&t, obviously, the worst, followed by procter and gamble. the journal says the succession game is back in play. >> a lot of people seem to get

shuffled at proctor. that means maybe the quarter is not that good. i didn't like the unilever quarter at all. be careful betting against proctor. the number may not be stellar, but he is taking action now. it's big. why isn't yelp pulling things down? a little company called service now i had on "mad money" delivered a blowout number. that is counteracting what we are seeing in yelp, which people are saying is a bit of an outlier. >> how much do you think oil is driving equities? >> 80%. >> you think it's ridiculous? >> that's the algorithm. so much is known as program training. computers spined out there is a good correlation when oil goes down, sell the s&p. doesn't matter whether that be a company like dow which wants oil to be here.

or kimberly-clark, a company i like that delivered a superior number. you have a lot of companies that want oil down. yet the hedge funds and their programs say when oil is down, sell stocks. when you have oil up 71 cents, everyone says happy days are here again, as stupid as that is. gm saying they spent $700 million on recall costs? >> gm was the recall company. gm will come in because people don't trust gm. there's always a wrinkle to gm people don't care for. we are seeing a lot of rollbacks of what we saw yesterday. goldman sachs was down two yesterday off of what? it's in the dow. it's a big stock.

it's up two. off what? it's in the s&p, it's a big stock. we are getting a lot of companies that are completely being driven by the larger s&p. this is the most commoditized i've seen as the quarters are the most different from i've seen. all stocks go up, obviously. this is a variable quarter situation. look no further than boeing which people are choking on. downgrade by credit suisse. dreamliners is costing too much. we are getting within the industrials great variance in earnings, but getting uniformed trading because of the s&p being so powerful. >> right. carmax? o'reilly automotive? autos are getting some notice today, i would argue. >> we did have mario gabelli speaking positively. fleet is 1 years old for autos. that's aged. they are all over the map. on a day like today, you look at

some of these quarters and you say, wow, i thought they were supposed to be doing badly. what are they doing doing well? a lot of ceos are better than we think even as there is a perception from people at home all ceos are bums. >> tractor supply? >> looking for about plus four. i ended up getting 5.3 on that, 5.6. that is a nice up side move. people felt there is no way tractor supply would have a good quarter after the last two being bad. you like to contrast that with a company i have a crossbow from, cabella's which blew the number down 11%. these are stores you ought to go to. i love neigh tractor supply. i love cabella's, but that is a sporting goods play. tractor supply is a gentleman former play and garden play. that was quite good. i felt they would blow it. >> pulte, numbers in line.

we've seen good action out of home improvement retailers. >> they've been amazing. >> existing numbers were good. >> refis are good. talking about mortgages. doing more mortgage work last night. pulte is not up from that. i like that number. there is more money in the consumer pocket. wells did say there's tremendous refi. consumers have more money in their pocket and not worried taxes are going to go up because washington is in disarray. we love disarray out of washington. >> big broad 30,000 feet? >> don't like it up 200. it's a long day. i do think we put in a bottom post-ebola scare. we need to see russia totally resolved. i like the numbers coming out of

china and copper going up. how about this? we had a big volatile down day. it scared a lot of people p. a lot of people got out. it looks like there was a mistake in that. it's funny. precipitated by abbvie backing away from shire. look how much that is up. >> incredibly painful for john paulson. >> those guys go flailing and everyone thinks the world is over. union pacific says everything is well. >> ten-year back almost to 2.26%. >> refi. watch oil if they try to crack oil, you get it under $80. i had rich kinder on last night. you said you would be surprised how liquid these oil companies are. there is too much money to be made in marcellus and utica where they are also producing tremendous job growth. if you go to western pennsylvania or northeast pennsylvania or ohio, i've got a job for you right now. >> paying more than you can get

doing anything else. >> if you are willing to brave winter and summer of north dakota, and you can get $27 an hour at mcdonald's. have you watched that stock? wasn't that supposed to be a hideous number? it's up $2 then. change is going to come. >> that's been your theme back to $92. >> they know how good they are. >> with all of that, dow is up 200 points. s&p back to 1947. some of the levels we had trouble busting through yesterday. >> 1947, again a very good year, expansion for the market. >> let's get to bob pisani on the floor. >> great morning here. 9-10 sectors on the up side. only telecom down led by strength in industrial. energy, health care, defensive names are doing fairly well. i want to talk about oil. we had good earnings reports this morning. oil impacted a lot of it. you want to see what lower oil does to an oil company's business? look at occidental.

in the third quarter 2013 they had earnings of $1.97. third quarter 2014 $1.55. earnings down 24% from a year ago. that is what lower oil will do for an oil company. occidental petroleum was killed. went from $95 to $85 and now trying to climb back again. a lot of stocks got killed in the last two weeks. look one year later. today they are announcing $2.75. earnings up 82%. capacity constraints are helping. this is one of the things oil will do for you. take a look at united here. we were, what, $50? we went to $40 in united and we are climbing back slowly but surely back towards that $50 level. same with american. american had $1.04 last year. now they have $1.66.

i have a different take on caterpillar than you guys. look what a strong energy business does for a company that sells into the energy business. caterpillar had $1.72. they beat by 36 cents. how does a company that big beat by 36 cents? business in energy transportation was fantastic. all the beat was because they are selling into that business. they sell transportation equipment into the energy area. construction is another 6 cents. there is a company that is doing well because our energy industry in the united states is doing well. you want to see what geopolitical constructions do to a company in the oil business? take a look at weatherford. this is a big oil services company. big driller. they came out and reported earnings of 32 cents way below expectations because they are very big in northern libya, northern iraq and they had disruptions there their earnings and operating income were down. oil and geopolitical issues

affecting a lot of companies. talking about pulte. the important thing about pulte is flat. that was a real disappointment on the order level. the thing that saved them. average selling prices were up nicely about 8%. that's the main reason we are not seeing a decline more in that particular group. a little bit of a disappointment this year in housing. finally want to note, some disappointments in the tech area, citrix was a disappointment. revenues weren't that good. teradyne and lam research did not have great numbers. lam talked positively about 2015. not far from the highs of the day, dow up 200 points. >> thank you very much. let's get to the bonds picks and check in with rick santelli.

>> so many things going on. all conforming to a comp of highest levels since the 13th, so two weeks. we are up five basis points. you are starting to see a little bit of flattening creep in after everything was steepening since last wednesday's rout of the equity markets and dropping yields. look at a two-day of 10s. we cleared yesterday's high yield. very significant level. next two charts, the next two charts are going to show you the two-week highs whether you look at 10-year or boons. the low yields you see on the right side of the chart, those don't even reflect the intraday lows that were much lower than the settlement lows used for charts. if we look at september 1st for hyg, i know that it's risk on/risk off.

maybe that's oversimplified, but maybe it's back in vogue involving some of the horrible issues involving canada yesterday. dollar versus yen. it is 1.10 but backed off. it is coming back. this is a big move in terms of dollar improvement. last chart is the after mentioned euro versus dollar. you could clearly see it seems to be running out of gas again. >> will talk to you soon. former gm vice chairman bob lutz. are the automakers' latest results a sign the worst is over? we are up about 200 on the dow. s&p up about 20 handles.

i'm angela, and i quit smoking with chantix. people who know me, to this day they say, "i never thought you would quit." you know, i really didn't either but chantix helped me do it. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. it gave me the power to overcome the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these, stop chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening.

tell your doctor if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems, or if you develop new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack or stroke. use caution when driving or operating machinery. common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. i'm a nonsmoker; that feels amazing. ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. a pet friendly hotel. visit a tripadvisor pet friendly hotel. with millions of reviews, tripadvisor makes any destination better. it's in this spirit that ingu u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. one that helps you think differently about what's ahead, and what's possible when you get things organized. ing u.s. is now voya.

changing the way you think of retirement. take a look at the s&p.

hanging in there. trying to make up some of the ground we obviously lost over the last week or so. >> i know people hate gm. that stock will not rally. ibm. people are again bet withing that warren buffett is clearing out, but they don't know the answer to that. i am surprised some of the oil surface stocks are doing well, but they were heavily shorted going into the corner. i'm thinking of diamond offshore. i want to warn people, when i say it's a long day. i'm saying there are a lot of people who do not want this market higher and are worried about their year. when i say that it's because a lot of people not set up the way people are at home. they are looking at 3m saying, wow, i thought that would be a big miss and wasn't. now i have to cover or buy back the stock i shorted. that's why stock like that is up six in what was a typical good

quarter for 3m. be careful. does this stuff go on? i'd love to say it did. people are short defense stocks after what happened with lockheed martin. you have a lot of companies delivering numbers that aren't supposed to. that's why you get this kind of thing. >> face week at an all-time high. take a listen to this. [ speaking mandarin ]

>> i'm not jealous of him at all. >> he is explaining his chinese is rough and appreciates having the opportunity to practice, and learning the language for his wife priscilla who is chinese and her family. my wife is fluent and made her listen last night. she said his accent sounds like he is obviously just learning, but his vocab is amazing. how you learn that and run a $200 billion market cap company is amazing. >> back to the idea, we have people who run -- let me show american pride. my old friend larry cutler would do that. google is an american company with worldwide dominance. he goes to china and wows them. my mother would be ashamed of the way he dresses, but you're allowed to dress that way when you are as accomplished as he is. we are not accomplished enough. we are still wearing suits, ties. we are trying. >> we are trying to compensate. >> for the fact we are no zuck.

>> you like this stock at $20. we had a great call on it. now at $80. >> the manager of my charitable trusts, we have to tell people don't be too greedy facebook. palo alto, don't be too greedy. there are companies i'm saying we are really right. facebook is not as cheap as alibaba. it might deliver. when you listen to the domino's pizzas of the world or hear that the growth in advertising is going online, no. it's going to facebook and google. don't confuse online. it goes to face book and google. >> dow is up 188.

an unprecedented program arting busithat partners businesses with universities across the state. for better access to talent, cutting edge research, and state of the art facilities. and you pay no taxes for ten years. from biotech in brooklyn, to next gen energy in binghamton, to manufacturing in buffalo... startup-ny has new businesses popping up across the state. see how startup-ny can help your business grow at startup.ny.gov alriwe need to do somethinguble widifferent. ranch. callahan's? ehh, i mean get away, like, away away. road trip? double wings, extra ranch. feels good to mix it up.

the all-new, fuel-efficient volkswagen golf tdi clean diesel. up to 594 miles of adventure in every tank.

time for cramer and stop trading. >> we look at the wednesday numbers for oil inventory.

reuters have a story talking about the saudis. they only shipped 9.36 million barrels per day in september. that's down from 9.68 million barrels per day in august. everyone has been saying the saudis are flooding the zone with oil. that is clearly not the case judging by this. that's why you are seeing a lift in those stocks, even though we saw some companies report very not good numbers. occidental reported not good number for its california division. that stock is up. oil controls. when you see something positive, it shouldn't control, but it controls. the market goes up in general, and that's what's happening. >> we'll talk to bob lutz later. one question will be at these prices, does it mean all the efforts to be fuel efficient, is that wasted time in the near future? >> the light weighting of cars is going to be challenged by this. i think that in the end, people,

we want to use less oil. the country is more environmental than we realize. we have jarden. avnet has been the battleground. then flotek makes citrus fracking material. you know what? if you can drink it, it can get into the ground. i want to find out how strong sales are there and i hear they are very good. >> see you tonight, jim. when we come back, more on the morning's rally with the dow up 196.

i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. because it gives me... zero heartburn! prilosec otc. the number 1 doctor-recommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you outlive your money? uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive.. confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor can get the real answers you need. well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today. you can bring back from a trip around the world. but you can't always bring back customer data. because many customers don't like it

when their data moves around. can i go now? if you're going to do business globally, you need a cloud that can keep your data where it needs to be. today, there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm. welcome back to "squawk on the street." breaking news, september read on leading economic indicators lei up 0.8%, a bit better than expectation which was 0.6% to 0.7%. last month's up 0.2% remains

unrevised. a solid leading indicator number as we look at treasury yields priced at the low levels of the session. back to you. >> i'll pick it up. thanks for that breaking news. let's focus on the markets and the economic data. we got jobless claims earlier rising this week, still sitting near 14-year lose. let's bring in steve liesman. the message from the economy here in the u.s. seems to still be resilience in the face of what we are seeing around the globe. >> that's right. if there is a wave of weakness coming from either side of east or west, it hasn't hit our shores. i think that's worth talking about. stocks have been incredibly volatile. gdp less so. we've been at this range looking at the rapid update of 3% to 3.5% down to 3.1. we tracked ten economists on how

incoming economic data changes their forecast. most recent data was unchanged. here are some of the people contributing. obviously, jobless claims coming in, it's up a bit but still well below 300,000, at a level that was at the bottom of previous recessions. there are the growth expectations there. i've drawn a line at 3%. for the last five quarters except for whatever happened in q-1, if it was the weather, have been above 3% which is above the believed potential of the economy, which means we should be soaking up labor slack and productive slack in the economy through those numbers. not gangbusters, but decent. especially 3.1% volatility with 4.6%. we have a little bit of the volatility around one economic

number, but overall, the economy, the economic number, the forecast for this quarter holding up despite this incredible volatility in the stock market. >> steve, thank you for that. more breaking news this morning. canadian parliament getting ready to meet in ottowa about 24 hours after that tragic shooting there. do want to give you that live shot in ottowa and bring in our chief international correspondent michelle caruso cabrera. >> the individual there is the sergeant at arms kevin vickers who shot the shooter yesterday. you can see the applause he is getting. members of parliament today committed to trying to get back to business as usual in an effort to say that the terrorists have not won, of course. you can see quite an emotional response to him in what must be an incredibly emotional day for the members there. this is the house of commons meeting. they have a senate and house of commons, as well.

>> clearly an emotional scene there, michelle. by the way, i assume we are getting more and more

confirmation yesterday was an isolated incident? >> yes. numerous canadian news outlets reported they received confirmation from law enforcement officials that they are acting on the assumption michael zehaf-bibeau acted alone. this man killed him as he tried to do what he did in the parliament in canada. there were great concerns that there would be more attacks because there were two shootings close in time. the last hour canadian police telling local outlets in canada they believe there was only one shooter yesterday. >> thank you for that. our chief international correspondent michelle caruso

cabrera. >> caterpillar shares jumping. trounced analyst expectations raising its outlook for the year. >> this year has been great because we had steady sales, steady production try our lines and we are getting after lean manufacturing and shows our margins are just about everything and getting good cost reduction top line from our supplier, supply base, as well. operationally, it's what makes me feel good about this year and this quarter. >> operation is the word. let's bring in jpmorgan managing director who has been with us here. ann, operation is a keyword there begin what's going on in the global economy and mess that is still the mining sector. >> i think interestingly we've beaten up on caterpillar quarter after quarter after quarter. and their inability to execute on the manufacturing side. here we are in an environment

where revenues are pretty flat and the operating performance is improving. kudos to them on this quarter. they did deliver a decent operating number. >> one of the stronger points was energy production, supplying some of the machinery there. what happens to that given what we've seen in the price of crude oil going down to $80 a barrel. does that reduce or eventually demand, especially when it comes to big oil exploration companies and production companies? >> actually, one of the reasons we are neutral on caterpillar heading into 2015 is on that thesis with oil prices coming down. not only has caterpillar's engine, oil and gas business done well, but seeing a lot more construction equipment going to infrastructure buildup for oil and gas domestically. we are a little concerned with oil prices, if they fall further going into 2015 it will impact many of caterpillar's businesses, not just its engine,

oil and gas business. >> you're never afraid to call a spade a spade. we had tough conversations about cat. tough conversations about deere. when i hear you say kudos but still at a neutral, to what degree are you changing your view, if at all? >> i don't think valuation is that compelling right now for me to change my rating on the name. interestingly, i was over in europe last week at a conference. i sat with several caterpillar dealers. one of them actually complimented caterpillar on its ability to execute and deliver product on time. i laughed and said this is the first time i heard you speak kindly of caterpillar in many, many years. i think there is something fundamentally going on within caterpillar. as doug said, perversely maybe flat demand gives them the opportunity to focus on operations. >> what is your judgment on china at the moment? what are you seeing? what's the analysis? >> china, and in particular for

caterpillar has never been a big market directly. we are seeing construction equipment sales down in china. no surprise there. the bigger issue for companies like caterpillar and china is the indirect demand through mining equipment. and of course, we saw in the numbers today mining equipment sales are still down year offer year for caterpillar. just lots of head winds there. we seem to be at least getting towards the bottom of the cycle in mining equipment. >> oh, really? i was going to ask. we ask every single quarter what is the outlook on mining. when does the pain stop? you see a bottom, light at the end of the tunnel? >> it's down 20% again this year. that was a concern for us coming into the year. we are almost at a point where they are selling no new equipment and dependent only on after market. that is a function of activities. as long as the global economy is

growing at any level, then mining activity is likely to continue, at least at some slow levels. we think we are getting close to the bottom at this point. >> there's been chatter lately about succession plans of caterpillar since 2010. he's 61 years old. do you have any sense given the moves he's made in management who might take his spot eventually? >> it was interesting to see recently the changes they made within the organization. they have a lot of deep bench strength. they have been very good at moving senior manage miami around, giving them broad experience. doug himself had lots of different experience before he took over as ceo. i think that is something that we'll take up with caterpillar in the course of the next 12 months or so. >> ann duigman, always good to have you here. cat helping the dow up 220 points right now. >> stocks are in rally mode. let's bring in andrew berkeley

managing director head of institutional portfolio. the onus is on the bears to argue it's going to be something more. you don't think we are going back more than that? >> we would buy the dip here. as you said, once you are down close to 10%, you have to make the case that you are going to have kind of down earnings, down economy in the foreseeable future to think about something more like a 15% to 20% correction. we don't see any of those variables shaping up. what we learned today, the euro zone manufacturing survey data looking better. slow recovery, but no rollover.

>> if that's true, what was the short term liquidity episode last week all about? >> the federal reserve as well as ecb. the federal reserve has put a sedative to the market with qe and low interest rate environment. when they start to move in the other direction, creates obvious volatility. general concern about eflation. that created a volatility. general inflation expectations have been dropping here in the united states which created that volatility. we believe earnings are robust as well as the general overall economy in the united states will be grown roughly over 3% in the coming year. could you see a 5%, 10% direction because of the federal reserve paring back? of course you can.

we are expecting higher highs and higher lows in the coming months into the coming years. >> coming through the summer, a lot of analysts were on the network suggesting you could buy big quality blue chips. that was the thing to buy. yet this earnings season is littered with companies that have disappointed and stock prices have not done well. coke, ibm, procter and gamble, cisco, at&t today. are those just anecdotal? does there come a point you say there are big juggernauts that can't turn that are unable to cut it. are not places to invest? >> we think the macroenvironment is defined by stronger fundamentals. that brings you to consumer and domestically-focused companies.

not global, industrial kind of large cap overseas revenues. what you want to look at is smaller retailers, smaller financial plays. like southwest which reported this morning. >> that has been the defining theme, stronger dollar, weaker oil prices. can you explain this relationship between the price of oil and s&p 500? the fact they seem to be increasingly correlated with oil as a leader. you would think lower oil prices is better for our domestic economy and should lead stocks higher. >> eventually it will. it will help with discretionary income. it does bode well over the long run. the general sense is oil prices have been falling out of bed because global activity or global growth has been decelerating. perhaps not here in the united states, but on the emerging

market side, ie, china as well as the euro zone. the euro zone's economy is really struggling. that has been one of the reasons why oil has pared back in the short run. also, u.s. dollar strength does have a major impact on oil crisis. that's why you have oil in the $80s, not above $100 per barrel at this point. >> final point. even though you are relatively bullish, we are going to need a stronger stomach, right? we'll have more triple-digit moves and more 1% moves? >> yeah. one of the big things we learned last week, what is the fed's resolve when we see volatility. are they going to be hawkish when the data starts to improve if volatility is there. what we learned last week, they don't have a strong stomach. they are quick to do an about-face and say wait a minute. we are not going to be as tight as quick as possible. i think the volatility is going to be there. i think the fed is going to stay on hold longer than they

suggest. >> i completely agree with him. absolutely agree. >> thank you. good to see both of you. dow up 235. record profits, following fuel costs pushing airline stocks. don't expect relief when it comes to ticket prices.

>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." cabella's lowered its full year profit guidance. as a result, that stock is down by about 9% on the trade for the year. the stock is down more than 20%. back to you. >> thank you, tom. >> a big day for the u.s. airlines as falling fuel prices and strong holiday bookings boost third quarter profits and fourth quarter outlooks. american, southwest, united, continental, jetblue and alaska reporting earnings before the bell. united continental which lagged its largest rivals had a strong quarter as profits doubled. phil lebeau joins us live from chicago with details. busy day for you. >> you like that? they report the biggest growth and see the stock move lower. these were impressive numbers. not a huge surprise begin that we've seen strong bookings and

we expected the airlines to earn strong profits in the third quarter. start with united continental. $2.75 a share, seven cents better than estimates. that was an increase of 70% compared to third quarter last year. american, $1.66 a share. that beat the street by 3 cents. alaska, a huge number today. $1.47 a share. beat the street by 5 cents. q3 earnings compared to the same quarter last year up 31%. then there is southwest. southwest 55 cents a share beating the street by 2 cents. earlier today we had a chance to talk with ceo gary kelly. he said right now when you combine strong demand along with falling jet fuel prices, it's a good time to be in their business. >> the economy has been more stable. energy prices very stable for really close to the last two years until the recent drops. then travel demand has been very strong. >> when you look at the airline stocks today, with the exception of united, which is trading

lower, all the airline stocks are getting a bit of a bounce following better than expected earnings reports. the interesting thing is a couple of weeks ago everyone said watch this, ebola is going to kill these stocks. it did have an impact, but we are starting to see that recovery as people realize the fourth quarter should be fairly strong for the airlines. back to you. >> you know, the bigger issue here, you know better than i do, phenomenal performance over the last three years. delta trebled, usairway up about 400%. the question for serious investors, where are we on the return on invested capital? that focus on running older fleets in order to maximize what shareholders get in return. deutsche bank does great work on this. my question would be how much further can we run? if southwest has a 19% return, alaska at 17% and united at 12%. some of those return on equity are already very high. >> they are. i asked this question to a few analysts and a few in the

industry. they believe they can get that return on capital they believe they can get it higher than where it is right now. it's hard to predict where it ends, but the expectation is that they still have room to run here. >> phil, thank you very much. >> up next, no smoking movement is going to hit a huge milestone. one of the leading cigarette manufacturers is about to ban smoking. we'll explain. [ male announcer ] some come here

to build something smarter. ♪ some come here to build something stronger. others come to build something faster... something safer... something greener. something the whole world can share. people come to boeing to do many different things. but it's always about the very thing we do best. ♪

but it's always about the very thing we do best. if yand you're talking toevere rheumyour rheumatologiste me, about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira giving me new perspective. doctors have been prescribing humira for ten years. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. talk to your doctor and visit humira.com this is humira at work

the nation's second biggest tobacco company instituting a new rule next year. reynolds american, making of camel cigarettes is adopting a no smoking policies. use the of cigarettes, cigars or pipes will not be allowed at

desks, conference rooms or on elevators. the company will still allow the use of smokeless tobacco products. their comment, we are better aligning our tobacco use policies with the realities of what you're seeing in society today. how ironic is that? >> they are not fighting it. it's interesting to see. i was just looking back. reynolds american had a strong quarter. not because of cigarette volume. they are raising prices. they are figuring out how to work around these trends. they are clearly not denying the fact people aren't smoking indoors any more. >> i would love to know what their insurance is. if you have 4/5 not smoking and 1/5 smoking in the office. what insurance are you paying if those people sue? phenomenal. >> it's hard to imagine up until today you could smoke at your desk. >> bizarre.

it's like straight out of "mad men." >> it's their business. straight ahead, rising suv and truck sales in north america pushing gm stock higher today despite problems across the pond. we'll talk to gm's former vice chairman about the results and what the future holds for the company. twhat do i do?. you need to catch the 4:10 huh? the equipment tracking system will get you to the loading dock. ♪ there should be a truck leaving now. i got it. now jump off the bridge. what? in 3...2...1... are you kidding me? go. right on time. right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. we call that predictable. thrillingly predictable.

it's in this spirit that ingu u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. one that helps you think differently about what's ahead, and what's possible when you get things organized. ing u.s. is now voya. changing the way you think of retirement.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm jacqui deangeles reporting from the nymex. we are waiting for the department of energy to release its weekly storage report from last week. expectation is to get a build between 94 and 98 billion cubic feet. it's not triple digits but would be a very strong build. actually traders are saying that should push these prices down. does appear the number has come out. i'm waiting for an update here. prices right now rising on this. it does seem to be a little bit bullish at this point. i do want to point out a couple of things. we have seen temperatures more on the mild side. of course, demand right now not so strong as we are heading into the winter months. the natural gas industry has refilled 2.5 trillion cubic feet since the march low. that was an 11-year low. traders are feeling like we are nicely stocks as we go in.

eugene, is that 94? what's the number? >> i don't know. >> we are waiting for the number. bullish on prices, but not updated yet. the number last week was 94 billion cubic feet. i'm not sure what the hold-up is here. traders don't know exactly what's happening. hopefully we'll have it for you, simon. >> we are actually flashing the gas increased by 94. i'm not sure if that's last week's data. >> i think it seems to be the same right now. good number for nat gas. price is higher right now. all this is good for consumers. you are watching gas prices come down. with nat gas at 3.66, it will be a good winter. >> thank you very much. despite the clouds of recalls hanging over general motors, gm posted better than expected earnings for the third quarter. joining us is vice chairman of general motors, author of "icons and idiots" bob lutz. what did you think of the

results? >> it's kind of what i expected. gm has strong sales of the new large pick-ups and sport utilities. business in china is doing exceptionally well. europe is still in a loss, but on track for profitability. unlike some companies, the company is not suffering as much in the russian market. if you look at the product lineup and the streamline cost base, there is no reason not to assume really good earnings from general motors. >> the issue obviously for most people watching is the fact that the stock is down so heavily. it lost 1/4 of it value still year-to-date. kyle bass was on the show yesterday. his hedge fund had huge losses because of gm. >> i think management is doing a great job. look at the valuation of this company. it's worth $28 billion today in enterprise value. they'll do $16.5 billion ebitda

next year. they'll do $6 billion in free cash flow. it's a 20% free cash flow yield. >> i guess the question is whether they -- what is it now? 30 million recalls behind them and 29 days? what is your view how berra is dealing with that and moving on? >> i think she dealt with it extremely well. now it's just a question of execution. if you look at recent history in the automobile business, everybody is issuing recalls for everything. i don't think the recalls are hurting the company one bit. on the contrary, with all of these people being called back to gm dealerships, i think it's very good for sales. >> can you get them to buy another one? >> no. what happens is the owners of these old cobalts would normally never visit general motors dealership but because of the recall they have to.

when in the dealership, the sales people will say why bother letting us fix it? we can put you into a new cruz for so and so many hundred a month and a lot of people will do it. it's really good for the business. >> you get the foot traffic. gas prices, four-year seasonal low. can they charge whatever they want for the big fat suvs? >> i don't think the big suvs are that sensitive to gas prices. they are usually people who are in an income bracket where they are relatively insensitive to it. there is no question that the low fuel prices are currently making it more difficult to sell hybrids or semi electrified vehicles because they cost more. at these fuel prices people would pass on it. however, they have to continue to be made to satisfy federal fuel economy regulations. >> i was looking at some of the

earnings headlines from the call today. the ceo was talking about how general motors is going to keep a close eye on used cars. what we saw yesterday in the inflation data is that used car prices were negative. does that hurt new cars that people can just get a bargain on used cars? does that hurt demand for newer cars at higher prices? >> there is only one market. a used car is nothing but a new car that's been driven and vice versa. if more people go buy used cars, the used car prices automatically rise and the difference to trade to new cars becomes lower. it's all one market. generally short term, a weak used car market is not favorable because it increases the difference to trade for people who want a new car. >> we'll leave it there. good to see you, sir. thank you very much.

when we come back, chairman and ceo of royal caribbean joins "squawk on the street." (receptionist) gunderman group. gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label

and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you have enough money to live life on your terms? i sure hope so. with healthcare costs, who knows. umm... everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor.... can get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today. chocolate, soybeans, thisand apricots. made with what kind of chef comes up with this? a chef working with ibm watson, on the cloud. ingredients are just data. watson turns big data into new ideas.

and not just for food. watson is working with doctors and bankers to help transform their industries. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm.

rails one of the best performing sectors on the back of union pacific. >> as broader part of the industrial sector we are watching the railroads moving higher after union pacific delivered a better than expected 19% increase in third quarter profits. this as it holds 7% more freight and increased its rates, as well. kansas city southern, all the majors in the united states moving higher. it wasn't this time on consolidation talks. >> that lifted them last week. >> let's go to rick santelli.

>> i'd like to welcome charles biedermann. it's thursday and charles day. thanks for taking the time today. >> good to be with you. >> are you bearish or bullish? >> we are bullish. as long as shares keep shrinking, we are bullish. >> tell us about float shrink. >> companies are reducing the share count in aggregate. mostly though by cash takeovers of public companies. the share count itself is shrinking, not as much. if you add in cash takeovers of public company which is truly, totally reduces the supply of stock in those instances, you have a lot more money chasing fewer shares, higher stock prices. even though you didn't ask, but the economy is slowing.

>> so if you had to rate economic fundamentals, float shrink or general rised flows, what order would you put them in in terms of how their bullishness is affecting the equity markets? >> float shrink has been running the double, triple, whatever we had in the inflation in equity prices as a result of float shrink has been enormous even though the economy is barely moving. >> general accepted accounting principles. you did a piece that really surprised me. if i call a good accountant and i give him the books of the u.s. government and ask him to do a forensics, what's his answer and what is he going to discover that will surprise me? >> if he actually did the work that the net is $84 trillion, net present value of future government liabilities is $84

trillion. if u.s. were a public company, it would have to put 84 trillion on the liability side. so add $16 trillion in existing debt to $84 is $100 trillion. net worth of the united states is $81.5 trillion according to the z-1 from the federal reserve. so the u.s. is broke. that really means that all the people who think they are going to get medicare, social security, government pensions in the future, impossible. won't happen. either the government doesn't know it's broke or doesn't want to tell us. >> i really like the chart. when did all this seem to change? the chart shows the lines crossing in the last 20 seconds tell us why they crossed that particular time and haven't crossed back to normal? >> under george bush we turned negative. under clinton we were positive p. bush decided to fight several wars and open up the medicare spigot. all kinds of stuff.

between bush and obama, we're broke. >> that's not normally where i would like to leave a great interview. we need to ponder that next time. thank you. let's go back to simon, shaken but not stirred hobbs. >> thank you for that merry note. it's a strong rally today. dow being driven higher by 3m. up almost 6%. caterpillar up over 5.

opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. you know how fast you were going? about 55. where you headed at such an appropriate speed? across the country to enhance the nation's most reliable 4g lte network. how's it working for ya? better than ever. how'd you do it? added cell sites. increased capacity. and your point is... so you can download music, games, and directions for the road when you need them. who's this guy? oh that's charlie. you ever put pepper spray on your burrito? i like it spicy but not like uggggh spicy. he always like this? you have no idea.

at&t. the nation's most reliable 4g lte network. the ultimate arena for business. hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. the only problem with conference calls: eventually they have to end.

unless you have the comcast business voiceedge mobile app. it lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. i've never felt so alive. get the future of phone and the phones are free. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "squawk on the street." check out shares of dr. pepper, snapple. stock moving higher after posting better than expected third quarter earnings. stock is currently up by about 2.5%. a good year for the beverage maker. stock is up 40% this year. >> canada is reeling after a gunman opened fire wednesday morning killing a soldier and walking into the halls of parliament and firing up to 50 shots there.

sara is live in ottowa with the latest for us. >> reporter: good to see you. just about an hour ago a solemn and somber moment at the national war memorial as members of parliament and the prime minister held a moment of silence for the soldier killed in yesterday's attack. also laying a wreath at the base of the memorial singing "o canada." this is a nation coming to grips in an act of violence carried out by what the prime minister called a terrorist. today a shaken public is working to prove that true going back to work amid heavy police presence. that including parliament, which is back in session this morning. sergeant at arms kevin vickers greeted with a standing ovation as he entered the room today. vickers is credited with running into an office to grab a gun and shooting and killing the gunman before he could wound or kill anyone else. vickers is a retired royal

canadian mounted police officer, who before yesterday served a largely ceremonial role, but today of course is being hailed as a hero. back to you guys. >> thank you very much. the view there from canada. let's look where we are on the markets. the snapback continues with a powerful rally this morning across the board. joining us is bmo private bank ceo and investor jack ablin. nice to have you on. >> thanks, simon. >> it seems almost schizophrenic where we are this week from the heavy falls on big volumes last week. what has changed? is it just ebola isn't airborne? >> i think that's part of it. beyond that, good fundamental news. the fact is that caterpillar had great results. we had great manufacturing results from europe. a lot of concerns about a global

slowdown dissipating, too. >> a lot of people will say in addition to what you factored in there it's also about central banks. the ecb might do more but there is this suggestion that hangs in the air the fed could extend qe. if they don't do that at the beginning of next week, what happens? >> that's what i've been saying is the federal reserve has been the big brother on the playground allowing the rest of us to be more emboldened than we ordinarily might be. and the end of qe does represent sort of a graduation, if you will with big brother leaving. we'll have to see what happens. all in all, i'd say we've got good fundamentals news on the economic side and of course earnings. caterpillar had good results. >> if we can manage to get

through october which has been fraught with difficulty, the bullish case revolves around buybacks resuming in november and december. where a quarter typically take place. >> you get get that and you alt a nice seasonal effect. if you look at midterm, generally they have been greeted with ugly octobers but then optimistic novembers and decembers once the elections are determined. so, you know, you do get a little seasonal effect of buybacks and of course maybe, you know, a political effect from the election. >> and just quickly on the fed here again jack since it does seem to be driving a lot of a. we have another meeting next week. does it matter that qe is ending? as long as we look at the interest rates and they are at the lower mentality which is what we've married, then the equity market has legs to go further. >> i think so sarah.

i wrote a piece earlier this week that said the fed doesn't get it. the simple fact is that this o whole mechanism of lowering rates and enticing people to borrow really didn't work this time around. so i'm not sure that staying around, hanging around, you know, expending paper is really going to have much effect anyway. i agree. i think the fed is going to be sitting on the side lines probably throughout 2015. rates will say relatively low. and if we continue to get upside on the economy and fundamental -- i think we're in fine shape. >> that said, what do you think wins next? what part of the market will do best? what should you not be in? >> caller: if you look at the kind of things the markets are worried about --. these were reeds master limited partnerships and emerging market stocks of those three the

emerging markets are cheap. the other two not so cheap. i think i merging gets the legs they haven't had for the last couple years as the developed world really stays come accommo for longer than investors feared. >> jack thank you. >> let's send to it jon fortt with a look at what's coming up next on "squawk alley." >> we'll be talking markets with a major indices up about 1.5%. some stocks going in different directions. also confidence down, we'll talk about the implications for tech. and earnings amazon and microsoft we'll preview those coming up ♪

the all new, head turning cadillac ats coupe. it's irresistible. ♪ ok, if you're up there, i coulsmart sarah.elp. seeking guidance. just like with your investments. that sets you apart. it does? it does. you're type e*. and seeking another perspective is what type e*s do. oh, and your next handhold... is there. you don't have to go it alone. e*trade gives you the support and guidance to make informed decisions. are you type e*? opinions. there's no shortage in this world.

who do you trust? whose analysis is accurate? how do you make sense of it all? a simple, unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts... is that too much to ask? nope. equity summary score, powered by starmine, will help you execute your ideas with speed and conviction. and it's only on fidelity.com. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. means keeping seven billion ctransactions flowing.g, and when weather hits, it's data mayhem. but airlines running hp end-to-end solutions are always calm during a storm. so if your business deals with the unexpected, hp big data and cloud solutions make sure you always know what's coming - and are ready for it. make it matter.

in the middle of this giant rally here on wall strut there are plenty of individual names to talk about. heavy earnings. under armor reported early, actually has turned around on the day and higher almost 1%.

it was lower on earnings even though profit came in better than expected. and the company raised guidance as it continues to sell it's apparel a nike alternative. apparel and footwear. footwear was very strong. apparel came in a bit light. >> so the whisper number was higher the expectations were higher. >> so many expectations built into this stock it's been one of the best performers. jim cramer also has been a fan and they deliver. they have been beating expectation physician the last year. >> just for the last royal caribbean has had a better year. they're on later. let's talk apple. >> up 2%. the company share performance this year up 30% so far. >> and the results they came

through with on monday have more than met where the market have positioned itself. the question now where do we go in the fourth quarter. >> a lot have been looking at the iphone numbers. to off set the weaker growth in ipads. as a whole the nasdaq is in the lead in terms of percentage terms in the rally. the nasdaq up 1.7-ish percent. what a reversal from last week. >> it's the dow that really captures a lot of people's imaginations with the strong earnings from the bell weathers. be it 3 m or caterpillar. that's cheered a lot of people. earnings season is coming through slightly better than expectations. >> it is. about 35% of companies reporting so far. and if you take a blended average, up 7% from last quarter. we still have a lot left. and after the bell as to amazon

is going to be one of the standouts. everybody always looks to see whether the revenue growth is there because profits not so much. >> i'm still down about a third on the year overall. here we go. as if by magic. i'm completely wrong. over a year it just about 3%. we'll see tonight. >> and i also want to point out with the dow relief, you mentioned had blue chips and stronger position because of the earnings, a little reversal from what we saw with coke coal and mcdonald's and at&t on disappointing profit numbers. >> big companies it is very difficult to steer in the direction of innovation or change. >> millennial is going to be the key. >> or just change. just change. >> or millennial. over to you carl for "squawk alle alley". >> thank you guys. good morning at 8:00 a.m. in san francisco.

11:00 here on wall street. "squawk alley" is live. ♪ and welcome to "squawk alley." joining us, henry blodget. jon fortt and kayla. what is turning out to be a remarkable market day. back include critical technical levels. s&p about 1% from going positive for october. we know it's been a rough month so far so we are in full on rally mode. all major indices higher by about 1%.

shares of apple opened at a new all time high. 104.15. up about 30% this year. and on the flipside shares of yelp getting slammed. the worst day ever for that name in fact. even though revenue guidance up 50 percent year on year not exactly what analysts have looked for. whether a weird bifurcation to responses to some various names. >> in the case of yelp it's interesting given the trouble that angie's list is going through also. the local market. john steinberg who we have here often is talking about how hard that is to crack. then on apple in my first full day of messing around with the ipad air 2 challenge. and the i must say the addition of the touch id and the functionality, namely