that's the only team i know who's in it. avoid small cap realty names and reads that you've never heard of. >> rowles play at home. it's been a long time. and macy's long. doc. >> still like royals but not for the series and i luke putting, phm. >> "power lunch." the fed, one hour away. last evening a private company's attempts to resupply the international space station ended in disaster. a massive explosion as you can see there. the company's stock today down some 15%. and in a matter of minutes in a combine effort lockheed martin and bow willing try to launch another rocket into space. the countdown is on. so is the countdown to the fed. inside that suv is the fed chief janet yellen making one of the biggest moves in years.

this will move the market certainly. and in a crash test, it determines which cars are safe for you and your family. t ty's out today so simon is my partner. hi, simon. >> this is a historic day for the fed and we have key coverage up on every aspect. diane olick on mortgage rates. kate rogers on what it means for small business lending, kayla tausche and steve liesman on whether it really marks the end of fed bond buying. let's start with our senior economics editor, steve liesman. >> two years later, the fed set to end the bond purchases or quantitative easing that launched in the wake of the financial crisis. now it stands at $4.4 trillion. that compares to under a trillion before the crisis began and the plan is to keep it there for at least quite some time and

the result is that just because qe3 is ending doesn't mean the effects are going away. the fed has said it's going to hold onto the balance sheet until they start raszing interest rates. that's not expected until the summer and then it could hold on even longer than that. the new fed stimulus program is a big balance sheet. guidance and interest rate guidance. when and how much it will hike. now, all those five, ten, 20, 30-year bonds and mortgage-backed securities the fed bought, they're going to remain on the books and off the market. this should continue to depress long rates and interest investors who want to buy risk-free investments. so the fed at least for now not really going cold turkey. as bonds mature, the fed goes back into the mark and replaces those bonds to keep the balance sheet level, at least until it decides it wants to wind down. to be sure, some have argued the 4 ppt 4 trill upstock in assets

has an effect but the monthly buying has the real effect. the flow plus the stock. former fed chairman ben bernanke has said, quote, qe works in practice, not in theory. which is another way of saying we know it worked but not exactly how. simon? >> for the moment, thank you very much. as new federal resolve money pouring into bronlds broadly dries up, the banks will be left filling some of that gap. kayla tausche has some of that. kayla. >> banks both here and abroad, simon, aren't backing down from the market. they'll actually ramp up their sovereign bond buying in the fis of new regulations. here's why. this year regulators will put in place what they're ruling safe assets that they can fund in a crisis scenario instead of getting bailed out. no surprise u.s. treasuries are included in those safe assets so

banks here are buying them en masse and those overseas will have to, too, once those are implea menled. so far it's been unmistakable. the u.s. commercial banks seeing their stockpiles growing to $605 billion. that's a 23% increase just since december when the tarp actually started. bank balance sheets showing similar growth on an individual basis. city's treasury up since last year. bang of america's, there's is increasing by 20. bna treasuries. if you worry there will be fewer buyers of these bonds, prices will go down and yields will rise, some of that might be overstated. there will be many banks that need to buy bonds that will with in the market. >> thank you very much. in the meantime breaking news. five-year notes were up. rick santelli has the details.

rick. >> well, simon, it certainly was not a pretty auction. the grade, d-minus. they now hit the streets. the yield much higher than where the market was trading. 1.5, 6, 7. i saw a lot of 155s trades in the one issue market right up to the very end. average bid over 10 auctions. 274. this one 2.36. $2.36 chasing every dollar's worth of securities available is the weakest bid to cover since july of '0. now they were about 748. dealers took 41.7% of the auction. but between the pricing and theed by to cover the grade for demand fits, but then again there's issues. it's called the fed statement. back to you, sue. >> okay, rick. that eric you very much. of course, we're on watch for

that at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. loan rates were supposed to give small businesses a big boost. >> it would seem to be a positive for small businesses allowing them to access cash for cheap. small business lending is steady but not robust. according to the small business legislation, lending for 2014 is at $19 billion. now that is up from the $17 bill in 2014, dow slightly from 2011. small companies are turning to alternative lenders. they have higher interest rates, easier credit standards and shorter terms. they say post lending standards are still too tight. they find that only about 2% citing financing as a top business problem and ham of these small business owners flat out saying they do not want a loan right now because loan rates are are not triggering the growth in spending that would

promise a good cash flow on business investments. separately, a pepperdine capital index survey finds about 42% of the small businesses say the current environmental is holding them back from growing. while interest rates may be a small factor, they don't mean that much to main street. they are what factor more into decisions to hire, raise wages and actually invest. so while all eyes are going to be on janet yellen, any clue as to when she's going to change interest rates, many are not going to care. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. >> housing now. part of the fed's plan to keep interest rates low was to help revive the housing market. is that plan really helping home openers and the program's ending. diana olick is next. hi, diana. >> there was one fascinating insight in this week's report

from the mortgage bankers relating to the fed. i'll get to to na a second. fir first let's look at refis. they soord two weeks ago when the 30-year fix fell below 4%. applications to purchase a home down yet again. 5% week to week. they've been down for three straight weeks and are now at the second lowest level since 1995. for buyers, rate is no longer the issue. it's higher home prices and still tight credit. now to that fascinating factoid i was talking about. the mortgage bankers note thad the big jump in refis we saw two weeks ago was largely for jumbo loans of 130% for the week. that's loans over $729,000. they dropped back last week when rates went up again. so clearly these rate moves are really moving wealthier buyers in a much bigger way than everywhere else. they may be reluctant to go

through the expense of a refi. it recreated the boom in 20112 through 2013. that effect is largely over and everyone is waiting to see what happens to rates tomorrow. very volatile after the fomc. >> thank you very much. our question today is did the fed's bond buying program work. we want you to weigh in. as you vote, ron insana will talk about whether or not he thinks it worked. what do you think, ron? >> without a doubt. in each case the fed's qe program 1, 2, 3, the economy continued to stabilize and grow. things were more affordable. banks, businesses were able to deleverage their value sheets. except for what both kate and diana talked about. the lending standards are offsetting the impact of the low

rates. >> what about the fact that they kept rates for too long a period of time, that perhaps the core part of the economy is healthy enough or was to withdraw some of that stimulus? sfwhoo we had the taper tan item last year. i think if you look globally. deflation -- and this is the view of larry summers and a variety of other economists who are following this quite closely, there's a global risk and it could be important here again. it's not current in the united states but the fed has to watch this. they can't make a 137-style mistake where they raise rates and have to try to do something if the economy weakens down the road. >> what are you expecting from miss yellen from this afternoon. what would you like to see? >> they have to wind down qe. i think at this juncture it's not that big of a deal. there are other things that could stimulate monetary

velocity, but they will leave the considerable time language in. i don't think they'll suggest we'll get rates higher, sooner rather than later. i think they're lower for longer. and was reported in the journal yesterday, if qe is kept in as a tool, even though the market responded to that yesterday, i think they may start to talk about how the fed would use it in the future. >> stay with us while we lock in the vote right now. i would like to get your reaction because i'm surprised by the results. did the fed's bond buying program help the economy? 60% said no. 40% said yes. >> it's making really wild claims about what the fed's mollty policies will do. spikes in interest rates, stock market crashes. none of which, by the way, we've gotten over the last five years. people who have been bashing the fed have been dead wrong this

entire period of time and yet it still resonates with people because it's perceived it's helped out bankers and businesses more than individuals. so it's a psychological disconnect here but there's no doubt in my mind the fed did the right thing and continues to do so. >> ron, good to see you as always. >> you too. >> let's go to don. >> this is following a dow jones report that they're preparing bids possibly for the company. bids include names like apollo, heldman and freeman and kkr with the first round of bids due today. remember back on august 19th, petsmart had looked at strategic options. it's worth noting that the activist is the top shareholder. back over to you. >> thank you. let's change gears. for decades crash test dummies

have made tests. big news for the dummies. will it make it, phil? >> that's the hope. america has changed but the crash test dummies have not until now. wait till you see what the new crash test dummies look like and what it might mean for saving your life whelp "power lunch" returns. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. [ female announcer ] we love our smartphones. and now telcos using hp big data solutions

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alibaba. it's trading low with a $118 price target. facebook stock continues to fall after it projected a slowdown in revenue growth this quarter and announced a dramatic increase in spending for next year. and ups predicting record holiday deliveries. as many as 14 million packages will be shipping on monday before christmas. >> and i will be one of those shipping, simon. thank you very much. we're not counts just down to the fed. we have 56 days until christmas. they're having me read this story because it panics me con pleatsly. courtney reagan is with me and she has the entire story with us. >> you think you're panicked. i've got a lot to do. but in truth, the holiday forecast and surveys are kind of split down the middle to whether americans will want to spend more or less this season over last year. alex partners forecast a holiday

sales increase but below the ten-year average and consumers told twc and amex they plan to spend less than last year. however others point to a stronger season than last year. but consumers also tell deloitte they're not all that optimistic about the economy. gas prices have been lower year over year for 107 straight days. the unemployment rate is it. and while consumers say they'll spend a decent amount more this holiday season, at least that's what they told deloitte. at the same time they're not feeling so good about the economy. so according to the dloit survey of 5,000 consumers, by the way, 29% think the economy is still in a recession. that is a slight downtick from the answer last year. but what's more, 11% thinks the economy is back into a recession. that's a slight uptick from last year. and though they did double, really it's a small group. only 8% say the economy is

healthy. that's not a perspective they want to hear about. >> it does not. i bet we see the discounting starting very, very early the not already. simon, back to you. >> big news to the auto industry. chrysler talking of spinning off ferrari. phil lebeau is behind the wheel with a stallion on it. >> this someone of the moves that chrysler is hoping to make about $4 billion. here's what we're going to see. 10% of the ipo will be auctioned off to the public. that goes to the public. another 90% will go to fiat chrysler shareholders. it's estimated the value will come in somewhere between $6 billion and 7 billion dollars. on a conference call here's with sergio marchionne said. >> we need to get off our butts

and do it quickly because tim path on earnings is substantial. >> simon, look for the road show probably to start next month. that's how quickly he's talking. >> what about the crash test dummies, phil? >> well, if you're somebody who's a little largerer like me, this is going to be something you take note of. if you look at the way they have changed, they haven't changed since 1980. the old one, the standard, 172 pounds, 5'9" inches. the heavier prototype which has been developed by a company in southeastern miz, 271 pounds, 6'2". that's more realistic. obese passengers are more likely to die in a car crash. the statistics show that. 35% of the adults are considering obese. bottom line, we'll see these kind of crash test dummies in the future. >> an extra 100 pounds is a lot of momentum. thank you. the antares rocket lifted

off at 3:22 p.m. eastern time from virginia but it exploded seconds later. orbital sciences, the maker of that product, their shares dropped sharply. last check, down 15%. this launch was part of a $1.9 billion contract that orbital has with nasa to supply cargo to the international space station. plus, happening now, another rocket launch. this time it's happened in cape canaveral, florida. they're launching a fwhun with a gps sight. an at lack 5 rocket. jane wells is here as well. 50 seconds to go. >> this is a boeing gps satellite that's going to be launching just hours after this explosion. we don't know what caused it up in georgia, proof that it does go on. this at lack 5 rocket is different than the antares rocket that orbital sciences used. it is its own rocket. >> and it's unmanned as was the

other one. >> yes. this is not related to the space station but the interesting thing about this atlas 5 rocket you see here is this will be the rocket boeing would use if it wins the eventual contract to shuttle astronauts on a manned mission. here we go. it's about to take off. >> five, four, three -- we have igniti ignition, two, and lift-off of the launch of the 50 rocket. >> at a certain point last night it was 15 seconds after that particular launch when everything went wrong with orbital sciences. stocks of orbital sciences and its merger partner atk were halted earlier. i was listening to a conference call with the ceo. he said with that merger, he doesn't see any reason that it's not going to continue to go through. it may be delayed. they were hoping to close that $5 million merger. it could be into next year.

what he said as we're watching the successful launch right now of a boeing rocket on a satellite 50. they say it's too early to tell. they're beginning the investigation. fortunately there was not major damage to the launchpad. most of what happened was covered by insurance. he did make this interesting comment. the investigation may or may not lead to problems with orbital science's aj-26 main engine, main propulsion system. >> it may be some other proponent? >> early clues suggested it may be that. he said they had other challenges. that's an old russian rocket engine that has been refurbished. they don't know if that's the problem. they have been looking into a potential replacement for it. if the investigation leads to the aj-26, they me lead up to that. >> we checked orbital's shares, they're down 15%. i'm sure they're watching this

particular and so far successful launch very, very closely. how many times does boeing intend to use this particular rocket to take -- transport into space or satellites into space, do we know yet? >> they've been using the atlas 5 rocket for years. elon musk at spacex would like to get a piece of the military launch they do there. hates been used many times. it, too, has a russian engine which is part of the controversy. when we started having sanctions against the russian situation in ukraine, they were threatened perhaps to make no more of these engines and they've been looking for an alternative for it. but at the moment they're still using it. >> bowing is down a quarter of a percent on the trading session. lockheed martin is up on the trading day by a third.

you mentioned elon musk. has he commented or made any comment on what happened last night or what's going on right now? >> you know, elon musk -- spacex and orbital sciences are the only two contractors currently given billions of dollars to shuttle cargo. two years ago he gave an interview with "wired" magazine where he called this rocket -- not this rocket, the antares rocket, quote, a joke. he said it was like a punch line from a joke because they were using russian technology. here it is. it uses russian rocket engines that were made in the '60s. i don't mean their design is from the '60s. they were literally made in the '60s. now after last night's catastrophe he was more subdued and said in a tweet, i hope everything works out for them. again, their next flight for orbital is april and the ceo says right now it's not clear if it's going to be ready. the investigation is so unclear.

>> absolutely. i know you're going to be keeping track. >> you bet. >> good to see you. all right, the countdown to the fed decision continues. the fed's expected to end qe. how do you plan to position yourself? smart strategies when "power lunch" continues. >> coming up, power pitch gets healthy. the healthy snack startup hungry to keep you skinny. >> we make snacking more skreenlt, better for you, and more delicious. >> but will the panel bite? stay tuned to vote with the p paneli panelists. are you ready? go to cnbc.com/vote and get ready to start voting. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind, lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move, wherever you are.

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travel, gift cards, even cash back. and my rewards points won't expire. so you can make owning a business even more rewarding. ink from chase. so you can. welcome back to "power lunch." hershey shares are coming back from their low. the stock took a dive after the company gave a trifecta of reasons for poor guidance, higher milk prices, strong dollar and weak sales overseas. down 3.5 bucks. now down 2.5% on the day's trade, simon. back over to you. >> time now for the "power pitch" where entrepreneurs get 60 seconds to make their pitch and our panel of experts decide whether they have what it takes to become the next big thing.

>> hi. i'm the co-founder and ceo of nature rocks. it's a directed consumer brand in the food industry that uses data to develop better products. our initial focus is on the $64 billion snack market. we make snacking more convenient, better for you, and delicious. we've developed over 130 different products. our products are made from high quality ingredients and we release several new ones each month. our customers sign up for a monthly subscription. they filter from our 130 different snacks based on the dietary needs that they have. select exactly what they want and then give us feedback on what they liked or didn't like. we use that feedback to develop and improve our products for the future. having shipped over a million nature boxes last year and growing our revenue to over 20 x we're one of the fastest food snacks getting started. >> just getting started.

i'm mandy drury. you heard from nature boxes. clara helps to manage $200 million in funds in early stage funds. investments include -- also with us is naval ravikant who co-founded angel list. a website connecting startups with investors and job seekers some investors include uber. nick marsh directs the nonprofit wellness in the foods. welcome. you are in the hot seat. ladies first. first question comes from you. >> how are you using that data to inform product cycles and product innovation. >> we use ratings and customer comments. the ratings are based on a

five-star scale and customers can go in, rate everything they receive, and what we're using is we're aggregating that data and then determining how much product to buy based on the inventory forecast and how much we think the demand for that product will be. and then using that to develop better products in the future based on what we learned from what customers like. >> how much technology is really in this business? it feels like it could have been done a little bit before the internet. what part of it enables it to become technology leveraged so it can make more money, keep higher margins? >> i think what we're able to do is shrink the product development life cycle which in a typical food company is 1 to 3 years down to 8 to 12 weeks and that's all because of the technology that we've built and the ability to have a direct consumer relationship where we receive that data. >> nick? >> so i drilled down into the nutrition labels that you have on the website. some of the product is

definitely more on the healthy snack side, competes maybe with kind bars and stuff like that and some of the products are more on the treat side. maybe they compete more with hershey bars, which is fine, because we eat a lot of hershey bars, but when you think about the brand and the educated consumer we have and people out there knowledgeable and paying attention, where do you want people to perceive you on that spectrum from treat to healthy treat. >> we believe in balance and choice. we have 130 products. as you said, they fall along the spectrum. we want to give our customer the ability to choose exactly what they want. that i cocome to the website, see the nutritional ingredients, field through the catalog and pick the ones that are right for them. >> do you want to give us more numbers, dollars and cents? what kind of numbers? are you profitable? do you make money? >> sure. we shipped $1 million. the standard nature box is $19.95. and we'll be on tract to sell.

>> are you profit itable? >> reinvesting for growth. >> i've got to ask about the money. $28 million you've raised? i know in the venture business when they pass the cookies,cook. that's a whole lot of cookies. tell us where you're going to spend it? >> we've grown the business 20 x year over year. we're going to grow by another 3 x this year. it's going to help improve the customer experience and meet the growing demand we're seeing in the marketplace. >> okay. guys, we all heard what he had to say. we need to know if you're in or out and this includes you, dear viewer. you can log onto cnbc.com/vote and let us know if you're in or out. clara, what did you think? >> i think you're playing in a really crowded market and one that's unfortunately pretty trend based but your prescription and adoption helps alleviates those concerns and i love that fundamentally you're

providing consumers with healthy and more convene yenlt alternatives. if their reason i'm in. >> okay. you're in. what about you? >> he's got momentum and an articulate spokesperson. i would say the business could work. i wouldn't want to get in the way of it but personally as an investor and knowing what kind of money i make, i'm out. >> what about you, nick? >> i'm a cher. i will enjoy the product. ly buy it. and i think the money and valuation, i'm out. >> one in and two outs. roy do you think? >> i appreciate the feedback and we're going to continue grow our business. >> thank you and congratulations to nature box and all of our panelists. thank you for your time. that is it for "power pitch." >> let's lock in on it. are you in on nature box.

it would show the majority are in, 54% to 46% as you can see. let's get back to the treasury market and where we are on interest rates ahead of the decision. rick santelli tracking the action with 26 minutes to go. >> yeah. exciting. 26 minutes to go. you could clearly see straight up on the clocks, they moved up a bit. that was a messy, messy auction. a fed day. a couple of things should jump out at you. very significant level. 155 issue. two-day dollar index. why? because just looking at this chart they think it's going to lean dovish. sue, back to you. >> thank you, rick. we'll see very quickly what happens in the market because the countdown to the fed is on. the fed expected to end qe. how the investors position their portfolios right now with 24 minutes left before the decision. pow"power lunch" is back in abo two minutes time with the dow down 28 points. ♪ music

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welcome back to "power lunch."

owens, illinois, is one of the biggest losers in the s&p 500 with a drop of nearly 9%, a level they have not seen for more than a year and a half. qe3 earnings beat estimates but guidance are week and a new purchase program is not reversing the tide. so far owens illinois share down. remember, this is one of the biggest makers of glass bottles for things like soda and beer. >> that is absolutely right, don. thank you very much. the dow and s&p down slightly ahead of the news. everybody is on pins and needles as you can see. we have matt froin, the chief invest midwest officer. welcome to both of you and my partner simon is going to chime in as well. tom, i'm going to start with you. you say that basically unless you're a very short-term trader, you don't have to pay too much

attention to what happens from the fed today. you need to take a longer term view. tell me about that. >> yeah, i think, you know, we've known quantitative easing is going to come to an end. there's a debate on whether they're pulling on a string anyway. you have wage inflation, which i don't see right now. it will be longer. it will be a good threat for the investors. >> with that said it's quite clear that qe is to assets what interest rates are to the economy. you know, one of the reasons we've written 9% of the s&p from the lows two weeks ago they say it's because they promised an extension to qe. if that's going to end it must matter to markets. >> you know what? i don't think we're going to have an extension. you had a mini panic and you see

right back where we were. >> as we look at the dow and the s&p, most of the those indices are near their lows of the day. so, matt, chime in on this if you will. what are you expecting from the fed and how do you invest? what do you like in terms of either stocks or sectors right now? >> sure. well, first, earlier in the year we thought that the fed might keep a nominal amount of qe going, but really qe has become so mainstream that the idea of stopping and starting if they need to really isn't that significant anywhere. we've been expending it to trend up for quite a while. our advice is that investors should put themselves in a position to profit from the volatility and viet w it as an opportunity instead of a panic.

>> how do you do that? >> right. first you have to get right with your risk tolerance. we have investors stretching or believing themselves to be more risk-taking than tray truly are and they have the opportunity to true up a little bit and they should. the second thing they need to do is make sure they're not forced sellers. so at usaa we spend a lot of time trying to understand our liquidity leads to make sure we're not going to be that investor forced into a bad market. we think that's good advice for investors. so unz what your cash needs are and make sure that they're met. you might want to pull some of your leverage bets off. pull down the margin a little bit and put yourself in a position to really try to profit and be greedy when others are fearful. because increased volatility. that's not a risk. that's a guarantee. and it was only 85 years ago that we had black toouuesday.

i don't think anything that significant is in the chards but you have to be aware that those sorts of disruptions happen. >> thank you, gentlemen, very much. tom, matt, we appreciate it. we'll see what happens in a short while. simon? >> in the meantime stocks are at the low of the day. we're 17 minutes away from the fed's latest monetary positioning, telling us presu presumably that qe will end at the end of the month. let's have look at how the major indices have faired since qe3. the third round was launched in september of 2012. the dow down 28%. the s&p up 38% and the nasdaq rising 44. "power lunch" is back in two minutes. (receptionist) gunderman group. gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time?

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important for many reasons. 3% say the middle class. we are actually now trading at our lows of the day. the dow down 41 points as we head toward the f1 decision in 15 minutes. bob pisani is here. why are we down 42 points on the dow? >> so far the playbook is going along perfectly. it's part of trader lore. we go up two days into the fed meeting and then we weaken and go to the downside after the meeting comes out. so everybody knows the stocks have tended to go up for years now going into the fed meeting. i think what's important today is even if we do what they expect, i think you'll see a little bit more of a drop. the initial reaction. >> if there's a news conference afterward in which yellen appears dovish, the stocks do better. >> listen. i think they're going to leave the door wide open. i think it was said two weeks

ago. the priceses, the feds aren't going anywhere. yes, they're going to pull back but rates are staying low. therefore in that sense i think the response will be muted. i don't think there's going to be this all out sell everything type of response at all. i think it will be muted until people get a better sense and reize, oka realize, where are we now. >> and they have a lot of coverage. dudley mentioned this. evans mentioned the target inflation has been consistent and i think that's going to be a lot of coverage. >> not everybody on the stock market wants rates low. some think you're distorting things. >> i think you're absolutely right but we could go back and say do we need qe4 or should very have started and let the ma

ma market and stock work it out. >> it continues. will it move the markets? our live coverage rolls on in two minutes. an unprecedented program arting busithat partners businesses with universities across the state. for better access to talent, cutting edge research, and state of the art facilities. and you pay no taxes for ten years. from biotech in brooklyn, to next gen energy in binghamton, to manufacturing in buffalo... startup-ny has new businesses popping up across the state.

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let's take a look at what's going on. it could be the year's biggest lbl lever rammed buyout. ibm and twitter announcing a partnership to announce data and analytic solutions and twitter will allow select cloud services and the maker of that rocket launch last night that exploded, they have dropped sharply today. we learn this hour in a call the company may speed up plans for a new rocket engine. the ceo says to his knowledge the plans merger with alienlt tech systems will indeed proceed and it will be very interesting to see how it does, indeed, proceed and how it proceeds at this hour. everybody is on pins and needs, simon, as we await that fed meeting. >> yes, it is fed day, sue. we're counting down.

that's all for "power lunch." >> and we're moments away from the breaking news on the fed. a special edition of "street signs" straight ahead. >> you're absolutely right, sue. in fact, it's all about it. what could be the surprise if anything. could it be a change in language, a delay to the end of qe? we will have it all for you. we've got it covered from all sides. what it means for stocks, bomds, housing, auto,s, every everything that affects your life. a very special edition of fed signs right after this break. then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. our expertise, technology, and high quality parts means your peace of mind. it's no wonder last year we sold over three million tires. and during the big tire event, get up to $140 in mail-in rebates on four select tires. ♪

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a very special street signs where we are witnessing history. in less than five minutes the fed is widely expected to announce the end of its massive bond buying program, a stimulus program that has lasted six years and that we all know too well as kwant kquantitative eas one, two, three. brian is on in texas. he wouldn't have miss this for the world. i have with me scott wapner and

cnbc correspondent steve liesman. first let's get you caught up on what the stocks are doing. they're moderately lower. the tenure is rising but weak volume. brian, i want to get over to you. how is it going? >> listen, mandy, i think you nailed it. history is today. how might inflationaire concerns trickle over here and have our federal reserve react? i don't think anybody is expecting an interest hike today but the language will be hash as it always is. steve, liesman, let me give you one of two scenarios, does it look good with potential concerns on our horizon and act more hawkishly or do they focus across the atlantic, worry more about europe and their deflationary concerns and perhaps repeat qe and put their proverbial foot on the gas pedal

once again? >> i think it worries about "b" and hopes for "a" and steers a course in the middle brian. i know that may not be theness a you want. but here's the story. what we know about the federal reserve right now is the mistake they don't want to make, the ending of qe and having to go back to qe. it made the depression great. the mistake of the europe of the past several years where its balance sheet declined by a trillion dollars. what we're going to do today is end quantitative easing and take a very slow and watchful course toward raising interest rates. right now they look for an interest rate in the summer of 2015. that seems about right. look for a very shallow and long rise to the terminal rate, which is relatively lower than it otherwise would be. >> so you think today they're going to end qe. remember the a couple of weeks ago in the market selloff they came out and said maybe it

wouldn't be a bad thing to delay it. is there any chance that will happen? >> there's some chance but a small chance, 1% or 2%. >> they're still going to keep the option open to do something if they have to even if they do ultimately end qe today in a few minu minutes' time. >> there are a lot of critics of quantitative easing. you'll hear from them on this show. you know who they are and what they'll say. >> as do you. >> they're not precisely sure why it worked. bernanke famously quipped that qe worked in practice but not necessarily theory. they believe it worked. it remains an option on the table now and for future federal reserves. >> well, steve, it did work to make those who own equities richer, right? the federal reserve has propped up if not housing, definitely the market. a lot of our listeners have the question, not sure how much but it mattered. let's talk about considerable

period, right? that has been the fed language. those are some of the key words the federal reserve has thrown in there to indicate next year. does that go away? >> the expectation of the market, brian, is it remains and goes away in december. i think there's some chance it goes away today. i don't think that's what happens. what the fed wants to do is end this qe immaculately if possible. it's relatively happy with where the market is. it's happen where interest rates are right now and it doesn't want to rock that boat. i would say the federal reserve will steer a steady-as-she-goes course here. >> how high will the board be for them to engage if it has to? >> i think you could see it go the other way, scott. definitively if they say the forecast for the medium and the longer term would change, they would change their policy. >> certainly for those who say the market was largely powered by the federal reserve or at least backstopped by the fed, at least we'll know the truth. we're just seconds away from the

fed as the markets are right now moving to the downside. but let's get to hampton pearson with what's going on with the fed decision. i want to read you out what's going on. the nasdaq is down by 25 points and we've also been watching the yields higher. hampton, what's going on? >>. >> the fed ends qe. repeating the federal reserve is ending its policy of qe. reading from the statement. the open market committee judges there's been southbound stan chal improvement of the labor market since the current program. the committee continues to see underlying strength in the broader economy and context of price stability. according to the fomc the committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. turning now to interest rate policy, no significant change here. the committee anticipat