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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 5, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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thank you all for being here. really appreciate it. "fast money" is coming up with melissa lee. >> we have an exclusive with the ceo who a lot of people in wall street say his time might be running out. >> great stuff. straight over to you guys. >> thanks a lot. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, dan nathan, and guy adami with me. phil lebeau has the latest at headquarters. >> when tesla reported about an hour ago, a lot of attention on the fact it beat the street versus the estimate of a penny a share with revenue coming in stronger than expected. deliveries for the third quarter were roughly in line with expectations coming in at 77.85. what's interesting is when you look through their earnings report, their letter to investors, their guidance for the fourth quarter comes in at non-gap earnings of 30 to 35
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cents per share. the previous guidance and the previous estimate was 75 cents a share. we reached out to tesla. we asked for an explanation. this is a dramatic difference. tesla says the difference there is entirely because it will be building about 2000 fewer than planned model s vehicles. that's because of the change over nor the new model. because tesla will be delivering 33,000 for the entire year and 2,000 fewer in the fourth quarter compared to what they planned to deliver, the gap estimate is for 30 to 35 cents a share versus previous guidance of 75 cents a share. back to you. >> phil, just to be clear, these are comparable numbers. >> correct. >> what they're guiding for is half of what the street was expecting. >> correct. and we asked tesla and they said it all filters down to the bottom line when you look at the 2,000 fewer model s's that will
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be delivered. 2,000 fewer than was previously forecast. they are at this point not constrained because of demand. they are constrained because of hardware. because the dual motor, all wheel drive, they've got more hardware to put into the model s. as a result they are bringing down their projected deliveries for all of 2014 from 35,000 down to about 33,000. by the way we should point out elon musk in the conference call starts in about half an hour. >> one more question. you mentioned not -- there's no challenge to demand. so there's no air pocket when it comes to the all wheel drive model. people aren't saying i'm waiting for that to come out so i'm not going to buy a car this year. >> to our knowledge, no. they make it clear they are not demand constrained. they say this is about having the hardware in place in order to build this newer version of the model s which will be in demand. >> thank you. keep us posted. phil lebeau at headquarters. the stock, though, we should
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note still up in the after-hours session. what's the trade here? >> it was down eight turn the day. the stock is still down about 5% from the day they announced the model z. there was a much anticipated announcement musk teased. i don't think you chase it right here. this call is going to start. elon musk says what he wants to say. don't forget, this is a guy who said in the last couple months he thinks the stock is expensive here. i have a small defined risk trade in options looking out a couple weeks. i think you'll see 200 over the next couple weeks. i think the chart has been waning since the highs earlier in the year. great story. everything's great. but mel's question about that air pocket leading up to the model z, that could be an issue into 2015. >> i think it's important. looking where production is right now is not where it is. 225 on the stock to me on the chart is where i would be concerned. therefore i think the stock kind of floating on expectations that i don't think from at least positions from hedge funds was terribly high.
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the risk to me in terms was it can go lower. i think you don't chase it too high. wanted people to think this a totally not supported by at least a competitive model that says there will be no one else impeding on their turf. forget about where energy prices are at right now. you have to assume there will be other players in the space and we're seeing bmw. >> the margins were better in terms of the guide. so that may be another reason why they're looking through. >> 29.5% better. the quarter was good. it's better to be supply constrained than demand constrained. clearly. i think the performance of the stock is trying to tell you something. tim mentioned that 225 level. basically held that level throughout this year. we talked about that for a number of times. i think you can chase it here. i think it wants to push higher. i get the valuation is stupid. i also get the 30% shortage is in there. >> this stock, i'm in guy's camp here. you can chase the stock here.
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it went from gross margin 17%, 25%, now above 28%. gm, ford, they're at 18%. this is a bigger story. the fact this held with china growth in question, with oil prices getting slammed, there was something going on here and buyers are excited about this name still. so i hear you. it's very volatile. the way it's been holding is this 206 level, i think use that as your stop. >> let's bring in jamie albert. 400 bucks a share is his target on tesla. thanks for joining us. >> thanks. >> what's going to be your first question if you get it on the conference call? >> i think worth noting that the automotive growth margin outlook was increased modestly. but certainly want to know what's behind 30 to 35 cents for third quarter given the street i think was looking more for 75 cents or so. sounds to me like the air pocket, if you will, is
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production. and it's a good thing. because they're bringing some features forward that allow them to upsell their vehicle from what was already $110,000 a unit to conceivably higher now. you have a positive price and pressure. you have margins going the right direction. and some inexcusable return invested capital investments that maybe bring the short-term outlook down in the intermediate. >> so you're essentially saying you are okay with tesla saying we are going to earn on an eps basis half or less than half of the street was expecting because we're going to deliver 2,000 fewer cars and it's okay there's going to be an air pocket in demand for the model s because a new car is coming down the line. like the next quarter is a throwaway quarter and you're all right with that? >> i think demand is there. and quite frankly, 28%, they're slight sli higher than 28% growth margin. and the unchanged outlook for 2015. and by definition i have a $400
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target price, i'm chasing the stock here. i think there's an overreaction to the downside as it relates to this consternation around north american demand. it's simply not falling off a cliff as much as some investors would think. >> you know, i'm positive on gross margins but how do you hold onto those when you start to get to the lower. they can do luxury in china. that's going to be their growth market. when we start looking at the cheaper models, how do we hold onto those and does that come crashing in? >> i hope i'm still here to talk about in 2017 when they're rolling out cheaper models. but between now and then we believe they have in their back pocket some view on lower battery costs. i think it's well known now based on the last conference call they posted. they're targeting cost parity with internal combustion engines. that has to be part of the analysis.
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our $400 target, by the time we get to the model discussion and margin discussion, we think we're going to be going to 115,000 units a year clip for a luxury vehicle. and i don't believe the competition can move fast enough to chip away at that. so that's really what our call is predicated on. and the check here on the third quarter result and fourth quarter outlook is positive in that regard. >> we're going to leave it there. thank you for your time. jamie albertine. clearly a bull. if you were on the conference call, what would you ask elon musk? >> i want to know warranty costs towards at least the buildout of the liabilities of this company. a lot of people think the rnd is coming down. this is my whole point. talks about being around in 2017 we expect jamie to be around. but planning out that far for people to say five years out this is where production needs to be, they need to be ten times on production out to 2020. that's something there's no reason to put a multiple of this kind on this stock. >> all right.
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again, tesla in the after-hours up 5%. meantime, earnings here on qualcomm trading lower on a big earnings and revenue unit. josh has the details. >> qualcomm reporting and really disappointing here. that is a miss on the bottom and the top. on the conference call which just started the company's ceo saying qualcomm up year over year. but the issue that continues to really pressure this stock is china. there's two issues there. one, chinese handset makers. they're not paying royalties or they're underreporting how many smartphones they're selling. two, you have the chinese government investigating qualcomm under the anti-monopoly law. talking to mark suh. he thinks it could be another 12 months before you see a
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resolution to that dispute. going to bring you headlines as they cross. >> josh, thanks for that. china significant opportunities but significant challenges is what they said in the press release. >> we talk about the fourth quarter. not good. it's the guidance to me that's really disastrous. i mean, you look at fourth quarter 2015 guidance. 505 to 535. i think the street was at 560. what appeared to be a cheap stock going into this quarter doesn't appear to be as cheap right now given that guidance. for $130 billion market cap company which is what qualcomm is, it trades extraordinarily. 72 with support just a couple weeks ago. that's what we're talking about now. >> the revenue gone is as much as $800 million. is this worth a shot here, dan? >> i think it's worth a shot in the low 70s. if it gets back to 70, that was the low last month. guy said they have $130 billion market cap.
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that's going to be decreased by tomorrow morning. like they said -- they paid $7 billion in a quarter in buyback. i think this would be massive activist. there is no debt here. given what we've seen in large cap tech, why wouldn't somebody get in there and say start putting that to work. or start buying back stock in a major way. >> company to watch in the backdrop of what happened last night with the republican landslide victories, tax inversion deals these are guys with a lot of cash offshore. i go back to qualcomm and say the sensitivities on where ebt to share price. you need only a small recovery in royalty prices for the stock to get back going again. i think there's a lot of negativity around that. i think china -- it's all the bluster around china. there's a lot of duality here. they need qualcomm on some level to assume they can put them out of business or hand it off to the chinese handset makers, no way. >> we have got the latest on whole foods, zillow, and cbs
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with an earnings playbook coming up. and fire eye taking a beating today. the stock is now down more than 70%. the ceo says wall street is missing an important part of the market. he'll make his case coming up. tg lte network. how's it working for ya? better than ever. how'd you do it? added cell sites. increased capacity. and your point is... so you can download music, games, and directions for the road when you need them. who's this guy? oh that's charlie. you ever put pepper spray on your burrito? i like it spicy but not like uggggh spicy. he always like this? you have no idea. at&t. the nation's most reliable 4g lte network.
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welcome back to "fast money." whole foods reporting a very strong quarter after the bell today beating on the bottom line with three cents. revenues up $3.6 billion in line with expectations. along with its fiscal q4 comparable sales. the organic grocer is increasing its dividend to 13 cents per share. and as far as forecasts go, the full year 2015 same-year sales to improve in the, quote, low to mid-single digits adds that its first quarter comps are trending up 4.6%. that tops for 8% growth. the quarter isn't over yet. it's going well so far. on the conference call, john mackey noted the customer response at locations offering its delivery pilot program. it has been overwhelmingly positive. the average order is two and a half times the average basket size for those folks that are using that delivery option.
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back to you. >> thanks so much, courtney reagan. for awhile, whole foods has had trouble competing with the likes of a walmart and kroger. but here they are. they look like they've turned a corner. >> but they've been trying to lean into this thing since it washed out in early may. it's been trying to break 35 literally for the last five or six months unsuccessfully. as a matter of fact, i think last quarter we had on the desk. >> wanted to buy many the after-hours. >> if you recall. >> i do. >> well done. i think the stock -- this quarter could squeeze the shorts. >> good news in terms of delivery. finally it is offering delivery service and the response has been good. >> it has been good. we see it in new york. they have vans all over the place. remodeling old stores here. i'm kind of with guy. the stock rallied 10% in this report. it's up $2.50 right now. i'm not sure you chase it here, but if you were to buy it at
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42.50 and lose 40, that's probably a good way to chase it. at some point this thing's going to have to fill in that gap from early may. >> it's thrashed around at this level. i don't see anything -- wait for the comps to settle in. this is going to be your friend. but not yet. i don't think you need to do anything with this number at the same time the trend has been very good for this stock to kind of hold ground. >> all right. more earnings news right now. cbs beating on the top and bottom lines. julia boris has the latest. >> the company is cashing in on earnings. moonves announcing that cbs has struck a deal to be carried on sony's internet tv system saying they will pay higher fees than we've been paid for. moonves also saying tomorrow
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they're launching cbsn which will provide 24/7 digital news programming saying it will be supported by advertising but won't have the cost of a traditional cable news network. the company notes along with its new all access app for other cbs content, it's looking to follow cbs viewers wherever they are. saying more digital streaming deals are coming soon. >> thanks julia boorstin. >> you want to go disney and you want to stay there. that's the old school way to go. if you look at this stock, it's got a double digit decline. that's a bad sign. that's why people have been going to this. when you start to see that loss of add revenue and ratings, this thing is breaking down tremendously. i still wouldn't be there. >> it's had a horrible year. while disney is trading all-time highs. cbs had a miserable 2014. this is a bounce but i think it just illustrates what an
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operator disney's been. i think that's still the best here. >> cbs ceo will be on "squawk" tomorrow morning. you won't want to miss that. coming up, fireeye falling sharply on a third quarter revenue miss. and downgrades hitting the tape today. up next, we'll hear from their ceo dave dewalt on why he thinks they missed the street. act i. scene 3.
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when change is in the air you see things in a whole new way. it's in this spirit that ing u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. ing u.s. is now voya. changing the way you think of retirement. shares of fireeye gets burned today after a miss. it's been a wild ride for the past year. the stock climbing nearly 200%
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from its november 2013 lows only to fall 70% before rallying and then falling again. so can it bounce back from this latest drop? joining us now is fireeye ceo and chairman dave dewalt. we had the stock chart up. it's been a volatile ride. saying today investors may be close to throwing in the towel at this point. not only has it been volatile, you're cash flow negative, high valuation. what should investors be focusing on at this point? >> well, a lot of things, melissa. obviously first of all, you know, fireeye has been one of the fastest growing companies not just in security but all of enterprise. we went from i think $57 mill57 and now higher in 2013. the company -- even if you went
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back quarters they went up in a two-year period. we beat billings for five quarters. i think what happens here is the shift and the way we're disrupting the market as a security company. i mean, first with virtual machines and now with security as a service model. disrupting a lot of vendors. there's a lot of chop on that. if we look at the top line, this company is performing amazingly. and we continue to take a ton of market share every quarter. >> speaking of top line, the revenue guidance that analysts point out was disappointing. i mean, you brought it to 218 to so basically you lowered the bottom end of that range. so what can you tell us in terms of what the game plan is at this point? fbr in its notes say the tok is clicking to turn this growth story around in terms of street credibility and the model transition. do you feel the pressure's on at
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this point? you highlight a lot of great things going on with your company, but somehow there's a disconnect with what's going on with your stock price and a disconnect to how wall street investors are perceiving your company. >> when you're looking at new companies especially ones disrupting the industry as much as we are, you know, sometimes they don't get the model. revenue is a trailing indicator of this company's business. billings is the leading indicator. if you look last quarter, we grew q 2 to q3. we grew 133% over year to year. and as i said we quintupled the company in two short years. so when you look at a growth story, a market share story, when you look at disruption going on, it is very powerful. i think the difference is because of all that change and disruption, it's not easy to predict are we going to do product, product subscriptions.
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significant beat in terms of billings. significant growth across the board. and when you look at mcafee and other companies, we are kicking their butt and doing a lot of good work today. >> those could be good examples, but if you look at some of your other competitors such as palo alto networks first and foremost, when you compare the stock prices, palo alto networks has been out-performing your stock year to date, 12 months, 1 month. that's what they're looking at. analysts are also saying the offerings while they may not be as good, perhaps, as the apt solutions you're offering, they offer them in an integrated fashion that is good enough for a lot of companies out there. so from that perspective, it is a competitive threat. how do you assess the competition? you could say you're disrupting the market, but obviously investors are not valuing that. on what you say was a good quarter.
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>> so two things. number one, i can only control what i can with the company. and that is growth, that is market share, that's attainment. our estimate that palo alto did 6 million in the apt market. i mean, we're taking massive market share in the advance threat landscape. even when compared with all the vendors in this market, we're taking mass market shares. we're at places that matter, all the instances that matter. palo alto is a year ahead of us. in maturity of their float, their supply and demand on their stock, their distribution of their shares. so over time this company has traded at $37 a share eight months ago. now they're up over $100 a share. if you look at where we're at getting our model organizes, i think over time you'll see a powerful company here as well. >> in terms of what the street wants, at this point they're floating the idea of fireeye
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having to explore strategic options. are you open to that? some are saying you'd be better off part of a larger company because that would offer you more coverage with a larger sales force. >> melissa, i've been doing this 15-plus years as a public company ceo. i know what my number one job is. fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders, shareholder value, shareholder growth. i've created tens of millions of dollars. i'm focused on that. if the right thing comes along, of course you do what's right for the shareholders. but what i see here is an amazing opportunity. there is billions of dollars spent every year in security that's almost ineffective. we can disrupt that whole market and we are. it's within our grasp. i think we have a tremendous organic growth. the fireeye mandate is extremely powerful. we're involved with every major cyber attack and we're in the middle of it all.
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and over time the valuation of this company will improve and i think the shareholders will make a lot of money. >> so you're basically saying stick with me. but a lot of investors will take a look at the price of the stock and where it's been from the highs and say this is on dave dewalt and his watch. do you take responsibility for what the stock has done and/or the message? it sounds like you're saying the street and investors aren't looking at the right thing and aren't valuing the right things you're valuing. that's your job as a ceo to communicate that story. >> it is. that's a good opportunity to point out, i joined two and a half years ago at fireeye. we were worth $300 million in valuation. that was the latest round. we're now worth $5 billion-plus in enterprise value and a fully diluted share count. we've grown dramatically in two and a half years. and maybe the market got ahead of itself in terms of the value. i mean, we reached $16 billion valuation on 153 million of
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trailing revenue. what we ended up having was probably an overreaction one way. i think we have an overreaction the other way. i think over time we're going to find fireeye is very powerful, very important technology. it's leading in the industry. the competitors are far behind and we have a strong model. over time, we'll see how much the shareholders reward that. >> are you buying your own stock at this point? >> i can't yet. but i am very bullish on the company. i believe in it. i'm not selling shares. i'm very focused on growing the company. if you look at the guidance we just gave in q4 to your earlier point, we raised guidance. that was up 10 million from the previous guidance we gave. so we're going to take the company from under a hundred million from billings in the first quarter to over 200 million in the next quarter. doubling the company on an apples to apples basis. when you look at that, that's tremendous growth, tremendous opportunity. and again, over time it's a distribution of our shares from
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our venture capitalist. i think you'll see a lot of accretion in this stock. >> all right. dave, good to see you. >> thank you for having me. >> dave dewalt of fireeye. well, fiduciary duty, he would explore strategic option which is what wall street has floated. how do you feel about this company and where it's come from and where it's going? >> it's exciting. you get to a place where people are wondering if this is industry stuff, subscription mix, or fireeye specific. and they haven't really had a clean print in 2014. you're at a place where also the guidance on billings -- you talk about billings and yeah but fourth quarter billings kind of missed on some of the numbers. i don't think you're at a place where this is a wholesale throw it out. and the market has largely done that in the last couple of days. stock not terribly cheap. it's a fantastic company in terms of what they can do, but right now people wonder if there's something more going on. >> wall street is largely positive on the stock and most of the ratings are the
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equivalent of buys. >> i'm with tim in everything. this subscription model, it's a dangerous road to go down. but it gives you recurring revenue stream and probably is the right way to go. huge short interest in the name. dave tells a great story, but he's in the right space. i think you buy the stock here. >> it's a buy. >> yeah. granted you probably got to tinker with the main lows. here at 29 bucks you buy for a trade. >> i think dave told a really compelling story but you brought up palo alto, and this is probably the safer bet. he mentioned se manic. they're up 7% year to day. maybe you keep a $99 stop on it. >> i thought it was great. and actually it's something i think the mid-20s if you have a washout in the next couple of days, i'm getting in there and buying it too. i think what happened to the stock going up 400%, that's on
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shareholders, not the company. still ahead, the tesla conference call getting underway. got the latest headlines from elon musk. that's ahead. plus the ecb to announce its monetary decision tomorrow as the pressure intensifies on mario draghi. we'll look at what to expect. that's next. (receptionist) gunderman group. gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics.
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welcome back to "fast money." les moonves saying, quote, fairly definitively see some sort of sfz from showtime in 2015. this would be some sort of stand alone service similar to what hbo announced that it will be launching thex year. moonves noted there are 10 million they expect to reach them without hurting their relationship with the cable and satellite tv companies. back over to you. >> thanks so much. the ecb is delivering its monetary policy decision tomorrow. and that could be boosting the markets. let's bring in ren on how to boost this. it may not do anything at the end of the day. >> we had a bit of hope when the bank of japan did their move. maybe the ecb is going to really
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try to get ahead as well. it's difficult. because they delivered something in june, in september. it's going to look like a panic if they do something again at this meeting. and they only have a complete projection from their staff at the december meeting. so they normally wait until they have those. but i have to say from a trading perspective, it's tricky. we look at all the different flow indicators. it looks terrible. so you want to be sure. so you have this event coming up but maybe get a slightly better entry point. so we're just going to trade for a slight back up and get involved in short trades again. >> you're going to wait for it to tick higher. >> yeah. but we don't want to miss the trend. we want to be not particularly ambitious. >> the other side of this trade is it strengthens the u.s. dollar. a lot of people would say the dollar has seen huge highs since the may lows. in terms of contest of past dollar bull runs, are we near
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the end? we are where? >> if you look at the moves we had in the early 80s and late '90s, we talked about 40% in a period time. the move we've had feels very big because we've been in such a low volatility environment. but i don't think this move is over. i think a lot of the catalysts are still ahead of us. the fed is not fully priced. the flow situation looks terrible for the euro. i think there's a lot of underlying location shifts that supports the dollar going strong and euro going weaker. >> you talked about the market could be potentially off. there were a lot of articles out saying that draghi's got major opponents or that other heads have an issue here. to what extent is the market broader? is there a fear of maybe it's negative and it's been priced in but it could be much worse. that draghi's mandate is -- and we're going to see in the next couple months and there are structural issues with bond buying in the eurozone anyway.
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and markets rallied on this nuss. would you guys be positioning very much for a broader systemic risk trade? >> that's a good question. you really need to decide whether this is a risk neutral decline in the euro or whether it's a more risk premium we have like back to the euro crisis. p peripheral spreads. we're watching those closely. it's going to be a decline that we're positioning for. >> jens, thank you. tim are you trading ahead of the ecb? >> egb. so one call is exactly what jens is saying. people may have surmised that things were already pretty negative. i think this is a place you could still play this after-hours. time for pops and drops. big movers of the day.
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stratasys. >> they guided down. they had some slight disruption. i don't think you step in and play it. i think you want to see this get washed out. i don't think you take a shot on the first down day. i think you wait for another 10%. >> toya a pop. >> this is a point where a lot are continuing to get a huge boost from the weak yen. i think this continues. i think toyota looks interesting. >> got a pop for alibaba. up 2%. >> jack ma, it says he's a student of the market. he really went to school on the market and on these type of s x stocks. everything he says a is up. compared to $9 billion just a year ago. >> got a drop for amazon. down 2%. >> report on the 23rd. we talked about it being a trough. it happened to be it traded up
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to 310. now it's going to short it. now this stock gets dicey. the chart looks awful. i think it wants to test that level. we last saw on october 24th. >> all right. we want to bring your attention to a worthy cause near and dear to the cnbc family. tonight at the museum of new york, the lulu and leo fund is launching the art of healing. the charity buzz auction is now live. some of the auction items are trips to shows like ours. and all in the name of benefitting the lulu and leo fund. so check out the auction, enter your bid. charity buzz.com/lulu&leo. we all decided such a great charity that if we can get this bid up to $10,000, we will take you out to dinner with all of us who you see here. >> dinner of your choice. >> dinner with us. >> and guy will sing his
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favorite led zeppelin songs at the table. >> that's worth 10 grand on its own. >> on its own. wherever. we'll take you wherever you want. it will be a fun night. still ahead, commodities like gold and oil falling over the past month but is now a good time to get in? we break down the "a" game trade. plus tesla's call underway. we hear the latest from elon musk. that's coming up. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so.
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gold selling at its lowest levels in more than four and a half years. coming after black rock aimed at retail investors. joining us with his "a" game strategy, dan gam but. great to have you with us. >> thank you for the invite. >> a lot of it in this etf is energy futures. we've all seen what's going on with oil prices. we just had a guess that the dollar is in the midst of a bull run. what did you notice in terms of demand and flows into this commodities etf? >> over the past 18 months -- actually the last year, we've had a lot of clients come to us saying how can we pay
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commodities. we're sitting on big losses. what's the right basket to actually invest on. and we've been working with those investors for, like, diversifieied basket of commodities in their portfolios. so we've seen demand from asset managers and we've also seen demand from pensions and demand for retail advisers looking for a single play on commodities. >> so they're just having this in their portfolio as a hedge to what at this point? >> so, it is a strategic position for a hedge potentially to inflation, potentially to changes in the parts of their portfolio. it is negatively correlated to fixed income bonds. when fixed income markets, when the prices go down most times, commodities goes up.
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similarly, it's independently priced so equities is low. so what we've been talking to clients is everybody should be holding a position within 3% and 8% depending on their horizon into commodities. this is a basket. this is not a subsector. this is a basket they should hold if they need to have it in portfolios. >> this etf, do you take advantage of the many commodities inside of your basket like the goldman sachs commodities? >> so this fund uses a future contract but also uses equity commodities. actually takes advantaging and it's good at rebalancing so people can have a full basket. >> dan, we're going to leave it there. thanks for coming by. dan gamba. so would you invest in an etf that had primarily energy futures and equities? >> i think this is an
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interesting time to be putting your toe in on energy, frankly. and certainly is on a longer term basis. the thing to check into with etfs is what is the cost associated with the roll, what is the kbimplied carrying. making a call on commodities at this level of the cycle is a pretty interesting thing to do. certainly in some of the minors that have bombed out. i don't see this turning around. >> speaking of energy, crude oil bounced 2% today. one trader is making big bets. this could be the start of a massive rally. dan's at the smart board breaking down the action. >> crude went from just a couple months ago to 52 week highs to new 52 week lows. we had that 2% bounce today. and as you said, call buyers came in in the xle, that's the energy select etf. 30% of the weight of that etf is chevron and exxon. but there was one very big trade out of the money that caught my
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eye. the xle at 85.5. a trader bought 10,000 of the december 90-95 call. that sounds confusing. but what that trader wants to do. they spent 63 cents for that. they want the etf to be between 90.63 and 99.37 on december expiration. if they do that there and it gets to $95, they're going to make $4.37 million. but let's talk about why they're probably using options to define the risk. this is a two-year chart of the xle. this level going back is a huge technical support level. it makes sense to define the risk. why are they using something to a call butterfly. you see this massive spike we've just had. option prices are still very elevated.
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this trade structure kind of alleviates the potential decay they have owning long premium if you get the move in the direction you want. >> all right. thanks for that, dan. for more options action, check out our show on friday. still ahead, check out shares of tesla moving higher in the after-hours session. its conference call is underway. we'll hear more after this break. stay tuned.
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tesla moving higher much lower than expected. let's get the latest from phil lebeau. >> we're about 15 minutes into that conference call. let's go over what they're talking about right now. the demand outlook. elon musk has made it clear there's not a shortage of demand. if there's any problem right now it's that tesla does not have the capacity within the system as it builds the new generation or the next generation of the model s vehicle, the all wheel drive version. a couple of things to point out when you take a look at the results from tesla. the q3 deliveries of 7,785, that's roughly in line with expectations. 2014 deliveries, however, coming in at 33,000. that is below the prior estimate
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which was 35,000. the full year production is at 35,000. the difference being that they do not have some of the hardware they need for making the all-wheel drive model s vehicles. as for other headlines, the model x now being pushed back to the third quarter of next quarter. the model s has been under pressure due to the stronger dollar and by the end of 2015 weekly production expected to be 2,000 per week for the model s. the kweet quote of the day from musk in his conference call when asked why don't you give us monthly autosales data, his answer, no. when they asked why, he said because the media read nonsense into numbers. us? really? >> what? i'm insulted, phil. >> back to you guys. >> also it's interesting because when we responded to the words automotive numbers, he responded with an orange to apples comparison. even though he doesn't want to k a knowledge other people are
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formulating monthly numbers. when he addresses the monthly numbers, he doesn't address a direct comparison. >> which is what we talked about last time. it was about u.s. sales. north american demand being at a record level. we saw that in the numbers. most of their deliveries were for north america. >> in terms of the spend, $350 million to invest in production capacity. vehicle development. was that pretty much in line or is this a bigger spend than expected? >> most of what i've been able to clean so far and talking with analysts, this is what people were expecting. rnd is going to be lumpy for awhile as they transition into building out the first model x and then preparing for the third generation model 3. so i didn't see that number and look at it and say my goodness this is the most outrageous in the world. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau on the tesla conference call. we're at after-hours session highs, i should say, for tesla. >> they're showing some support. that level 226 is where you
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bail. obviously it's higher than that right now. there's been something going on where people are acquiring this name. people are not afraid of it. gross margins with rnd being lumpy, people are still buying this name. >> all right. got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. ♪ [ radio chatter ] ♪ [ male announcer ] andrew. rita. sandy. ♪ meet chris jackie joe. minor damage, or major disaster, when you need us most, we're there. state farm. we're a force of nature, too. ♪ we're a force of nature, too. an unprecedented program arting busithat partners businesses with universities across the state.
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time for the final trade. >> got a bit of a pop on news there was outbreak in saudi arabia, some violence. but oih is one to stay in. i think this is something you've got two weeks on. >> dan? >> tesla seems a bit of a short squeeze here. i'm negatively positioned here. i'm wrong right now. if it doesn't hold 250 tomorrow, take profits or look for a trading short. >> market's better than up 10% in about 15 days. utilities southern i'm long. not a screaming risk trade. i'd stay along that. there's still hunting for yield. >> get on charity buzz out there. >> i hope so. >> it is a fantastic cause. and dinner with us?
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lots of fun. all sorts of fun. >> at any price. >> look at medtronic. i think it continues to go higher. >> thanks so much for watching. see you back here at my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends and i'm trying to make you money. my job is to educate and teach you, so call me at 1-877-734-c 1-877-734-cnbc or tweet me. last night's elections were responsible for the s&p

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