tv Fast Money CNBC November 7, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
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the s&p. clearly this is not all a fed derivative. >> 4% earnings revenue growth. take out 1% for europe. it's maybe 5% for the u.s. >> gentlemen, thank you for being here. it's been a lot of fun. look forward to steve's radio shack campaign. "fast money" is coming up in just a few moments with melissa lee. what's on tap? >> twitter's down 10% from its first day of close as a public company. so we're going to decide whether or not you should buy or hold this thing. >> straight over to you guys. >> thanks a lot. "fast money" friday starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. our traders tonight are tim seymour, pete najarian, brian kelly, and guy adami. at&t just announcing a $2.5 billion deal. we'll have the details coming up. but we start with twitter. one year ago the company went public. the stock down 45% from its december highs. it is down nearly 25% this month alone. today's "wall street journal" out with a scathing piece on the company's management saying twitter ceo dick costolo struggles to define vision. what do we do here in do we need
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to see dick costolo out, tim? >> i don't think so. i think the company's struggling with just how much they can scale this business. you're looking at capex and sbc. these are things people are very worried about. the guidance for the fourth quarter was the problem. the third quarter was actually very good. the so he the question is how much growth do you need from twitter? i actually think if you look at the chart around here the stock is selling into a range where 36 to 40 becomes a very safe place. now, again, you set yourself a much wider berth in terms of where stop levels would be on the stock but i think twit ser yirnting. >> last conference call it's interesting they shift their focus to total reach as opposed to maus. they want to capture that user that doesn't log in every single -- right. that's a better metric. >> sort of moving the shell around. >> how do we judge this company? >> when you look at some of the numbers they did produce in the third quarter i'm with tim, those numbers were impressive p some of the greth numbers, the guidance, certainly had people concerned. i agree with tim.
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i think you were implying you that liked it down here. >> absolutely. >> i like it down here at these levels as well. the volatility's been absolutely taken out of this. i think there's nothing but opportunity in the options to be able to participate if twitter's going to get any kind of snapback to the upside. >> but big institutions have been selling. >> yeah, but you know what, when the story's in the "wall street journal" that's when he gets excited about -- >> it's the bottom? >> absolutely. we know all this stuff. but the one thing that twitter is, it's almost a monopoly the way it operates. there is really nothing else out there like it. and if you look back at the numbers they are doing quite well despite all their management issues. just imagine if they could actually do one thing right, and i've said that before. all they need to do is one thing right. listen, it's going to be a little volatile here when you get stories like that, but i agree with tim. $36 to $40 level i'd be buying. i'd even buy it monday morning. i may change my final trade. seriously. has it. i peaked. >> everybody hated the stock in the spring when it traded down
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to levels we've seen now. got a little lower, 33, 34. but the comments you made about costolo the same comments made about brin, about zukarberg just a couple years ago. i think he's fine in that spot and i think the stock is fine. with that said i think people are going to probably use all these opportunities to lean into it a little more. i think you can own it but i think it probably trades down to 38 first. zblaerning aletter on berkshire hathaway. let's go to dom chu in the newsroom. >> berkshire hathaway shares again we're watching just to see. this is not typically one that moves volatilely after earnings. $2,836 per share. that beats the average analyst estimate of $2,594 per share. a handy beat there. the company also said that book value per share, or the acquisition costs or base level value per shares rose 7.1% over the course of the year so far to $144,542 per share.
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berkshire class b shares perhaps ones that will trade a little more liquidly, if you will, on this particular trade, down about half a percent right now. but still, looks like an earnings beat right now. we're combing through the plethora of numbers we got. we'll bring you more details later on. but right now an earnings beat. book value up 7% so far year to date. back over to you guys. >> it's a beat for berkshire but we should note that some of the portfolio holdings buffett has had, they've had some serious knocks this past quarter. whether it be coca-cola or ibm. >> tesco. >> buffett bombs. >> coca-cola. this is a name i love and a name that falls under classic buffett theory, which is i a company, something that's deep value. i think the expectations are very low. warren is ready to say this is a stock that has certainly been beaten up wrongly even though the growth we all know is not in line with a monster. >> who wans to trade ibm? >> ibm.
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this thing's trading at levels we saw in 2011 on the down side. we questioned the oracle of omaha when he bought the stock saying ibm doesn't have the vision they used to have, they don't have the clarity. so what used to be a reasonable multiple for them doesn't make sense now. now the stock's trading at 162. feels like it has nor room to the down side although it's probably getting interesting for some people. >> he's not in ibm for the vision that they have. he's in it because they're buying back all their stock. that's all he cares about. he's even said that, that he's really happy when it drops like this because they can buy back more stock. that's the whole play. >> that hasn't worked. >> i'm with tim i think maybe once again, but i'm talking about coca-cola now and i think this is a great opportunity. i've looked at the way they've been moving forward for some time. i think the monster acquisition, if they even make that bigger, if it becomes a 100%able wiz igs, that's the area they want to go, get themselves the energy drinks. look at what monster did today. look at the numbers last night. that stock's on twitter. >> the only analyst on the
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street with a sell rating on twitter, steeple managing director scott devitt. thanks for being with us. >> thanks, melissa. >> you downgraded october 28th. the primary driver seems to be slow user growth. in terms of what they highlighted on the most recent conference call should we be extra concerned? because it seems like they're changing the metrics by which they want to be judged. >> yeah, a couple things i would say is one starting with valuation. the stock trades at 170 tim times 2015 and 80 times 2016. as you mentioned, user growth is slowing 2w5rd 20%. engagement's been declining for four consecutive quarters. and by our measure of montization the company overmonetizes relative to facebook by about four times. and you also mentioned logged-out users, which in our history in covering the internet the value of a log-in user a lot higher than a logged-out user. at this stage of the company for that to be a meaningful focus of
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growth seems potentially problematic. >> how much of the twitter sprob is a dit cost to low problem? >> i don't have a strong view of that. i focus more on the product, which user growth and declining engagement is -- that's the lifeblood of an internet advertising platform. and that needs to be addressed and fixed. whether that happens with the existing team we'll find out over time. >> but i asked you this because even just within the past year of being a publicly traded company he's lost five direct reports. i mean, the turnover there has got to be some sort of execution distraction. so even if they're dealing with slowing user growth it doesn't help them that the chairs are constantly moving and being filled by various people. >> i think that's right. you want to have sustainable heads in seats and that hasn't been the case. whether it's a problem in terms of who's been in those roles or it's a problem in terms of the
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business and to change it could negatively affect results in the short term, which is more what i think may be the issue, that's not really something that gets fixed by churning out who's running the department. that's a strategic decision by the management team. to take the medicine now for what may be better for the company in the long run. >> sounds like you're really skeptical about this metric of logged-out users. is that just them trying to switch things out, trying to distract wall street in terms of the real underlying business of user growth is declining? >> there's no question that amplification of a brand is valuable. but where i have a question is how valuable that is at this point in the development of this company. relative to actually growing the base of users that are logged in. because that user that's logged in, that's how you actually monetize a user because up information on that individual. it's not available when that individual's logged out of your system. >> scott, we're going to leave it there. thank you. scott devitt, stifel on twitter.
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if you're logged out what value are you? >> clearly you need innovation. you need something to get you out of what seems to be a rut in terms of their growth or not growing fast enough. but the new ad formats, slightly new product base, i do think people are underestimating what these guys can do. i think they underestimate the platform. comparing them to facebook, sure same space but in terms of scale they'll never be the same scale and i think you punish them unfairly -- >> scale based on what? >> i don't think they're going to have that kind of growth. i don't think they're going to have -- why would anybody be spending the kind of time on twitter as they would be on a facebook page? >> i dpis agreedisagree because think twitter is more valuable. we use it for news. facebook is the noise. >> how do you expect twitter to have arpus that match facebook? >> gold prices seeing their
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biggest gain in five months. first solar getting smacked in today's trade. we'll debate the buying opportunities in the solar space coming up next on "fast." nderma. nderma. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics.
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at&t said it's going to acquire mexico's third largest operator in a deal valued at $2.5 billion which includes debt. subject to approval by regulators. usacell currently serves 8 million customers in mexico. it also says if this deal does go through it will create the first ever north american mobile service area to cover 400 million mexican and u.s. consumers and businesses. those shares currently up by about half a percent in the mexican market. >> tim seymour, what's the trade off of this? >> i think i like at&t on this. at&t tends to outperform during periods of extreme growth in their mobile business or around m&a this is a stock that's been a neutral play over the last couple months. nice dividend yield, it tends to be defensive but growth in latin america very important. the fact that carlos slim is out of the way in mexico, at least has been pushed aside by the mexican regulators, we talked about this in "closing bell," very bullish for what's going on
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in mexico overall. also very good for the legacy players in the u.s. to grow south of the border. this is not a huge number in terms of subscribers but very good interest. we talk about arpus again, guy, this is a chance to see very significant increase in data. therefore rising -- >> yellow metal popping 3%. the miners also having a strong day. higher by more than 8%. beakers. >> yesterday i closed my silver short primarily because it seemed as though the deflation talk had really reached a -- i bought the calls in gdx just because i wanted to be exposed to the space because there's two things going on. one, we have weaker than expected jobs. not terribly weak. but quaeker than expected.
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that got gold going a bit, got the dollar down a bit. but don't ignore what's going on in russia, don't ignore what's going on with their currency and what's going on with ukraine. >> hold on. i know people out there are thinking beakers, you're talking about this vomiting camel on monday. so what happens? you see the vomit there. >> the camel's vomiting. the flat zone was down at 900 to 700. that's where i thought the splat zone was, based on the rom buss formation. but it appears there might be a floor there and something is splashing back in the camel's face now. and you don't want to be short when a camel's splashing back in your face. >> it was not a rom buss. a rhomboid. >> a rhombus, i think it's four equal sides, a rhombus. >> you went to harvard. >> i didn't take -- anyway. that's off. the camel's off.
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>> i think gold is going to be at 1100 by the end of the year if we got the follow-through in the dollar. i think the dollar this week peaks mid-week. 40 on the dxy. and i think you get a few days. the hangover of the d.o.j. and i payroll numbers, you have a chance for risk assets like gold i think gold's going lower ultimately. >> you like the levels on gdx? >> gold's going to get very interesting toward the end of the month. a vote in switzerland on november 30th about buying back 1500 tons of gold to get their reserves up to 20%. going to be a very interesting vote. something to watch. >> check out the solar stocks down after first solar reported weaker than expected earnings in the third quarter. yield co off the table at this point. >> that's really what i think people were blown away by. the numbers were not that bad in the top line but managers saying they will not make a yield co announcement in the short term. they don't see it a profitable additive where it's been a boom for several people in the
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sector. at in point the stock is have well supported. you've seen a support level takeover here but there's no reason to run over this and despite the fact the mega watts and the order books are up for next year this is a stock people are looking for catalyst to see them grow higher. i don't see that right now. >> is that a good call p. >> the balance sheet's pretty strong. about $1.3 billion. >> other names related to solar, derivatives, con edison. i like that name when you're connecting everything together. >> we should note that in the next week we've got two big solar interviews here on "fast money." tuesday we're sitting down with the ceo of vivant solar. and on thursday tom warner the president and ceo of sunpower. time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. big pop for monster beverage, up 8%. >> accelerating trends when they put up some of their numbers they were extraordinary. the eps beats that was huge. revenues not quite as good. but folks looked past that and a couple of the analysts out there raised 15 and 16 numbers. i think this stock goes higher.
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>> abercrombie & fitch down 17%. tim. >> the sales in september and october were terrible. 9 gie the guidance for the fourth quarter was not very good. if you look at the chart, broken through the levels on 30, no way. the holiday season crucial for them. 9 valuation not terribly cheap. not sure why you're there now. >> salix pharma. >> the guidance was an atrocity. and you had the cfo resign. accounting regularities. not good. even with the monster interest stay away from this. >> ak steel up 8%. >> they won a trade case. off of $6 the stock actually doesn't look bad for a trade. i don't know if it's a long-term holding or not but for a trade this isn't too bad. >> and a pop for facebook fashion sense. ceo mark zuckerberg finally revealing why he wears the same gray t-shirt every day.
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zuckerberg saying yesterday during his first public q & a session he would rather spend his time serving the facebook community than picking clothes. he also made clear he wears multiple gray shirts. he's not wearing the same article. >> guy, you seem terribly disappointed. >> that's a johnson move. and i tell you why it is. >> can we define johnson? >> being a jerk. >> got you. >> you want to let his brain function on higher levels. >> that's why you do what you do too. >> that's weak. why you do what you do. >> one big cap tech name that's logged serious gains in the past month. big unveil coming up next. and we want to bring your attention to a worthy cause near and dear to the cnbc family. the lulu and leo buzz charity buzz auction is going strong. some of the items up for auction is a set visit to the show like
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our own "fast money" here at the nasdaq marketsite. right now we're at $22,000. but if you're willing to donate 30 grand to come visit our set here at the nasdaq, we will treat you and now three of your friends to dinner here in new york city with all of us. >> and drinks down at my bar. >> all in the name of benefiting the lulu and leo fund which helps children foster creativity through the arts. charitybuzz.com/lu charitybuzz.com/lulu ampersand leo. >> from roaredbreaking highs to major market meltdowns. every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades. serving up in-depth analysts and actionable advice. >> you're talking about financials, you're talking about energy. i like those areas. and i think that's the area of growth. >> all to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> if it's very weak opportunity, absolute buying opportunity. >> this is "fast money." >> people that are worried there's not real sustainable housing demand, i think they're wrong. >> have a market question for the "fast money" traders?
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perfect music. because we're talking unusual activity. yahoo!. >> this is why it's unusual. we know how much the stock has been moving to the upside for so long. take a look at the way baba traded again today. another new high. yahoo! another new high. what's going on here in i'll tell you what's interesting is the april 60, 6-0 calls, were being bought today. over 3,000 brought. 95 cents in a single trade. more trade after that. very interesting to see this as the stock is approaching 50. i'm now moving that target that i had up to 50. i think i'm going to go to 55. >> all right. sears. the struggling retailer surging on news the company is exploring a move to convert some of its stores into a reit structure. so what is the trade here in we saw a huge, huge day for sears. >> up 40%, or 30%. we've talked about the fact there's huge short interest. guy's talked about it all the time. that's why it's very difficult to be short this stock
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particularly when you have eddie lampert who's the largest holder. i won bet against this guy at all. >> credit suisse makes the point that the most attractive asset for sears is real estate. if you do this reit structure 5u8 of a sudden it's gotten rid of its attractive assets. you've got nothing else to sell. >> you want to look at the charts now. it's an impossible stock to short. what you have to look at now does jcpenney make sense having no idea of the structure of jcp just knowing the short interest there it's got to scare people. the stock was up 4% today. that might be worth a look. >> time now for the final trade. >> at&t. i like this deal. the stock has been somewhat meandering. m&a catalyst. stock outperform during those periods. quite defensive if we get back into a period where people worry about global growth. decent val waigsz, good div. >> pete. >> i just talked about the unusual activity in yahoo! in forever. i thought it was going 50. i actually think it's going much further than that now. yahoo!'s my final trade. >> you like baba too. >> love baba.
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faster, much more aaccelerated than yahoo! from here. >> beaker. >> guys talked about the swiss vote at the end of the month. there's also something else going on in switzerland. that's the fact that the euro swiss rate is getting to the level where the swiss bank may have to intervene. so the way you play that besides just a currency market is an etf. you sell shorts fsf. that's your swiss frank. do that into next week. >> guy. >> fm network. giddy-up. >> was that your best pete imitation? that's awful. >> a for effort, though. >> meh. you can catch "fast money" again of course monday at 5:00. and now you can get "fast money" everywhere on your phone, ipad, laptop. log on to cnbc.com/livetv to watch the show on your mobile device or to watch full episodes from the last few days. you'll knee need to input your cable provider information to get access but you will gain access to "fast money" anywhere
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this is "options action." tonight -- ♪ you're the best that's what some traders are saying about alibaba. we'll tell you just how high the tech giant could go. plus, it's the question every trader's asking. >> can i borrow your towel for a sec? >> no, not that. they want to know if crude has bottomed out. and we have a secret indicator that says yes. we'll reveal it. and more like abercrombie & ditch? >> ha! yeah. i kill me. >> a & f shares tank on earnings. and we'll tell you why some traders see even more pain ahead. the action starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite i'm melissa lee. these are the traders here in times square. and we start tonight with a juicy story that is the talk of the options world. an unconfirmed rumor saying bill ackman is taking a stake in walmart. the talk causing a serious intraday bounce in the stock and leading to a flurry of call buying. this as retail stocks are at all-time highs. could walmart be the next activist target?
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