it's friday. a very warm welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm carolin roth. we're just getting italian third quarter gdp numbers. the italian economy shrank slightly in the third quarter bringing the economy back into recession. gdp fell 0.1% following an unrevised 0.2% fall in the previous month. this is in line with expectations and italy still not emerging from recession. now, remember, we got the very disappointing industrial production data in the month of

september, something 0.9%. barclay's expecting italy might not exit recession before the first quarter next year. >> let's move on and give you a reminder of our other headlines. germany and france avoid falling into recession in the third quarter. gearing up for a showdown, the australian prime minister accuses the russian president of being a bully while the uk warns russia of further sanctions. >> the eu says a corporate tax deal between starbucks and the dutch government may have been illegal. rallies to the top of the french market after the telecom giant lifts on better than expected sales in the third quarter.

hi, everyone. i'm seema mody. coming up on today's show, as oil prices hit a new multi year low, the uk ambassador tells us what that stake means for petro bass. we hear from a tech start-up hoping to make a connection in emerging markets and paris residents are on the high alert as a tiger remains on the loose. the latest on the hunt, coming up on "worldwide exchange." >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange" wsh bringing you business news from around the globe. good morning, everyone. let's recap the italian gdp data. 071%. that was the contraction that the economy saw in the third quarter. that was in line with expectations. the country is back in recession and many analysts out there expect it will remain in

recession until at least the first quarter of 2015. year on year, we saw a decline of 0.3%. we got dismal nebs out of italy as of late. 0.9% decline in industrial production for september. expectedations were pretty low. unfortunately we're not seeing a positive surprise for italy today. >> euro/dollar, 1.2564. you can see that data off the back of germany and france who have narrowly avoided falling into recession with both economies growing marginally in the third quarter. annette is in frankfurt. let's start with you first. >> that was pretty much in line with expectations, what we saw now when it comes to first quarter gdp here in germany. it's flat lining. looking at what has driven that no growth scenario here is that consumption was up significantly whereas investments had a

serious slump. so in order to get the german economy on track, the german government has to set the economic policy ride in order to incentivize corporate to spend money again in germany. looking at which kind of investments are dropping the most, it was capital expenditures, so key investments which were significantly lower in the third quarter. economists are now saying that, well, that can be blamed quite a bit to those geopolitical tensions, insecurities surrounding the world economic outlook because, of course, german corporates are not selling the products predominantly here in germany, but elsewhere. and that is also what the german government is following that narrative, that emerging markets are slowing and that is weighing on the german economy. barclay's, interestingly, has upped the gdp forecast for this

year today to 1.5% for germany. >> annette, thank you very much. stephane, how much the french gdp? >> well, it grew faster than expected in the third quarter, up 0.3%. the government is facing an intriguing pressure to put on some structural reforms. but if you look at the breakdown of the gdp numbers, it showed, in fact, that the main driver was public administration and there are still a lot of weaknesses in the french economy. for instance, consumer spending grew by only 0.2% in the third quarter. it's weaker than what we've seen in the second quarter and that is important because it's traditionally the biggest contributors of the french gdp. investment is not doing well again with a contraction of 0.6% on the quarter. it's the fourth quarter which has declined for investment in france. and that of course is a bad signal in terms of labor market, considering that investment is usually a way to create jobs,

trade balance also has a negative contribution. french exports increase in the quarter and at the same time imports increase even faster which makes a negative contribution of 0.1%. despite all these events, the final remains confident that the economy will be able to expand by 0.4% in the last quarter of this year. of course, it's really optimistic, much more optimistic, for instance, than bank of france which is targeting for the fourth quarter 0.1% growth for the gdp. >> thank you, very fan. joining us now, john hardy from saxo bank. john, a miss on economic data this morning. how are you making sense of it and how do you think you should trade on the euro? we're not seeing a big break there. >> no. i think these gdp numbers aren't particularly interesting. here we are midway through q4

within 0.1% or so in large part to expectations. so what i'm really doing is looking forward and it's all about signalses on the ecb for transition to qe and to which they're able to grow the balance sheet. in terms of where euro is headed in this lasted round of dmk data. that's where my focus is as well as what's going on with the japanese yen. >> overnight, we had mr. noyes saying we can't rule out qe in terms of government bond buying and yesterday we have news from the bundes bank. any news on that front? >> no. and i think that is the key tension we have here going forward. we have draghi, who is clearly dovish and did a tremendous job of making the dovish case this last ecb meeting, facing off against the foot dragging german bundes bank.

and as long as the tension drags on, i think it's resilient rather than trading in a range versus the dollar. and especially when you look at what japan is doing. the risk is the euro trade stronger. if you look at the euro compared to the yen, it's a big break there, could lead to further gains in that cross. >> we had spanish gdp 0.5%. ireland showing green shoots of growth, as well. germany today just escaping recession. all that together, is it enough to create further rhetoric and prevent earth easing.?

>>. >> as long as they flat line, they may turn to drag their fee. and the core is very much dead in the water. that face-off between whether the germans work to draghi position or how that gap is closed or not is the critical factor here for the euro. >> john, mario draghi says he wants to revive the european economy. that hasn't happened yet, but the euro has -- against the dollar. the weaker euro hasn't fueled exports yet. when do you think that will take place? >> well, we don't need a weaker euro to fuel exports. the problem is in germany, the

consumption is what we need germany to move towards. we need workers to get paid a lot more. and build up what is a massive current account surplus with the rest of the world and with europe. >> john har did, thank you for your time, fx strategist at saxo bank. >> let's update ow what all this data means for markets. markets did open about 30 basis points.

germany was kept out of recession. the stoxx 600 is flat. let's have a look at the stoxx 50. the bigger cap stocks fractionally better than the midcap stocks. but overall, very much a sense of struggling direction for european market. let's dive into european markets. germany in the green, fractionally after it just avoided recession. just in the red. france also which has 0.3%, slightly better than germany in the green and italy 0.83%. perhaps taking some strength from the data although it did come in line with expectation. overall eurozone gdp due at 10:00.

a small rise to quarterly revenue, construction activity, managing to beat analyst expectations, it bounced 3%. the fed quarter net profits fell and warned the full year results could be hit by additional costs for the a-400m military program. nokia is down 1 57%. it did lift its long-term target saying it expects the business to grow in 2016. overall, investors uninspired by those results. tesco is up 1.36%. after hsbc raised its rating on the uk growth. the bank raised its prime target to 240 from 195 which of course has been struggling.

looking at bonds, we saw u.s. bonds coming up, a fraction as the 30-year auction didn't go quite as expected, but nonetheless covered. and yields in general across most of the major markets are much less volatile in october than they were in november. so far today, relatively bearish move towards but we haven't seen the same move in equity markets. let's look at kinosi next. oil has been in focus for the last few months. nymex, now $74. brent bounced back a bit, 0.5% today. but, of course, still below $80,

significantly weak. gold is set for its third week of falls. let's check in on markets in asia. sri jegarajah is standing by in singapore with us as ever. sri. >> very good morning to you, wilfred. a patchy session in asia as we wrap up this week. you were talking about oil at new fresh four-year lows. that has hurt the lovely energy council in the region. i want to highlight the great china market and japan and pitch you forward to next week because it's going to be critical for these two markets. the hong kong shanghai stock connect, linking up these two exchanges will go live on monday and makes its debut. a big uncertainty around the tax regime governing this program. they have got a degree of clarity now from the chinese finance ministry saying it will exempt capital gains tax for three years on investments to the h-shares after the hong kong

shanghai stock theme. in my mind, that's going to encourage even greater participation in this program now which, as i said, launches on monday. we could see a degree of volatility because, remember, there's a lot of foreign hedge funds that are raring to go here. all that liquidity creating the choppiness in the markets. whether it will go ahead or not. if it is the dog of a number, it could if i am the case for postponement of that tax hike. the other factor next week is speculation fulging in the markets about prime minister abe and whether the administration will call a snap election. there's a lot of talk that he could very well dissolve parliament next week and call

that election. dollar/yen get ago strong bid, as well. we'll be watching that one for you next week. back to you now. >> and many analysts say this hasn't been priced in fully yet. coming up, we cross live to the g-20 summit where we'll speak to the new zealand finance minister. stay tuned. we'll be back in two. when change is in the air you see things in a whole new way. it's in this spirit that ing u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. one that helps you think differently about what's ahead, and what's possible when you get things organized. ing u.s. is now voya. changing the way you think of retirement.

tax avoidance in the russia/uk crisis are set to dominate the agenda. good afternoon to you. >> good ash afternoon, wilfred. world leaders are arriving here as we speak. we just had the spanish prime minister touching down a few minutes ago. we're still waiting for president barack obama. he touches down tomorrow morning. vladimir putin very much in focus today along with security issues. he's touching down later on this evening. we're lucky enough to have will english, the finance minister of england and he just literal this moment walked out of a meeting of 50 of the attendees at the conference today. welcome. >> good to be here.

>> what were you talking about in this meeting? >> we're going through the issues that the political leaders and had focused on the need for structural reforms. there has been a lot of discussion over the last few years. so the australians have done a good job talking about what it takes for growth and support. also for trade and there are some indications are a bit of a freeing up now and why people are talking about trade, we're getting more agreements between the u.s. and india about -- from the bally discussions. so it was all pretty positive, actually.

>> he's fairley convinced that will be signed in the next few months. what do you think? >> there is a lot more energy around it now and we're hoping that the g-20 leader discussions, we're at the new zealand prime minister, they're going to give it the momentum it needs just to give tilt political will it needs. >> how much do you think this sessions between the g-20 leaders are going to influence those talks? >> for the loaders to be discussing what they need to get growth. these are leaders that most of these economies are struggling with. trade is one of those leaders and so every time i get together, get a bit more energy and that will get it over the

line. >> when the g-20 came together in a time of crisis, what do you think has changed since then? what's changed? time and time again, for just being a talk fest. >> well, look, the australians have done a good a job as anyone to turn it into a focus on the discussion for accountability. they've made and produced our growth strategy like everybody else. so it's a bit of a -- and it's a bit of a discussion matter to see progress on trade as the development of the global infrastructure seemed to put the australians and it's fast looking like a g-20 that's moved out and dealing with the real issues of creating growth in the

longer term. >> let's talk about one of the key issues that's coming out today. a lot of this has to do with ukraine and russia. the russia president is flying in later on this evening and will take part in the g-20 discussions. is this the right decision to make? >> you mean for russia's participation or -- >> that's correct, yes. >> it's a g-20 article. it's a one-off participant, we certainly wouldn't suggest to the g-20 they do something else. but it shows value to the institution where you have this multi lateral instingts. it can't do any harm to the situation in the ukraine for the russian discussions going on around them. >> a quick question purely on new zealand, there must be a real concern for you at the moment. they've halved since february. >> they have.

but we are a resilient economy, we are looking at 3% growth over the next three to four years. >> okay, all right, it's a pleasure to have you with us today. thank you so much for joining us. we're now joined by carrie craig at morgan stanley asset management. the prime minister of your country there, but let's move back on this side of the eurozone. we've got data that continues to show that we're not contracting, we're not growing, either, but we're simply stag nating. you're saying that we're all too pessimistic? >> yeah, particularly of the summer, it was a little bit overdone.

obviously you have weak data coming in from germany. there was concern particularly that germany was falling back into recession. i wouldn't get too excited for the figures coming out today. the competent sfot at any great pace. these are things that often get overlooked in the press. a little bit of demand to check out. you have a weakening euro at the same time. and coming back at all, you have austerity that we did a few years ago. all these factors suggest the tension in market you'll see some improvement. >> let's dive into the reasons why you're more optimistic on

europe. it is a turn up in the credit cycle. >> a recovery, we use that term loosely for the eurozone. we haven't seen any expansion or lending from banks. quality review. the ecb bank lending, the last three quarters, there's been a steady improvement for demands and houd holdes and corporate. it's been easier since 2007 to get loanes from banks at this point. it's a marginal improvement. it is still negative, back towards positive territory. ultimately, the growth for the eurozone in the coming years. >> bank lending still at very low levels to help it boost bank

lending. >> outperforming up about 3% to 4%. the european index, down 3% to 4%. a time of that has to do with bank lending. >> we should see more transparency and more clarity towards the financial figure in the eurozone as you have the ecb take over the single supervisor just this month. they want to make sure they can -- to instill what has been lost over the last few years. that's great, but that improves the demand side of inflation. we heard them talking about the structural reform at the gdp and the bcontina that is needed

there. with things like the jobs act in italy or some improvement in spain and, in fact, a weaker growth out of germany might change the mind-set of some politicians there that they loot their own and they start to actually -- some reforms will be needed there, as well. >> we'll be waiting for that. thanks for your time. so as the eurozone struggles to grow and g-20 leaders are scratching their heads about how to create jobs, we want to know from you, are you seeing growth anywhere? and really, it could be anywhere. are you seeing longer cues in the super markets? are you seeing any growth in your paycheck inspect are you seeing growth around your waistline or are you seeing growth in facial here with the person sitting next to you. tell us if you are seeing growth anywhere around you. if you want to join the skais conversation here on "worldwide exchange," get in touch with us,

worldwi worldwide@cnbc.com. or on twitter, @cnbcwex. >> the waistline is an issue for me. >> oh, come on. >> can you see growth has been a serious point and a light hearted point, as well. coming up next on "worldwide exchange," preparing for a showdown. why it could be a meeting when the prime minister and president come face-to-face in brazil.

welcome back. italy's recession drags on marking the 13th quarter with no growth. germany and france narrowly avoid the "r" word. gearing up for a showdown, the australian prime minister accuses the russian president of being a bully, while the uk warns moscow of further sanctions as world leaders gather up a g-20 summit. tax avoidance also on the agenda. a corporate tax deal between starbucks and the dutch government may have been illegal. we rally to the top of the french market after the telecom giant lifts its full year goals on the back of better than expected sales in the third quarter.

>> portugal was, for a long time, seen as one of the weakest members of the eurozone. but now it is growing faster than germany in the third quarter. spain, of course, growing at 0.5%. so in many ways, it seems as though the periphery is supporting the core. interesting, huh? let's have a look at the european markets and how they're responding to the gdp data we had out this morning. the ftse 100 down by 0.3%. xetra dax down by 0.2%. the kakt 40 outperforming, not necessarily because of the above expect ages gdp in the third quarter, but in part because we hope they're outperforming a jump in profits. the ftse mib up by 0.4%. and let's look at the euro stoxx

50. some volatile trading this morning and currently we're down by 071%. and on news, russia could face greater sanctions from the u.s. and eu as a result of its latest actions in eastern ukraine. that according to the uk prime minister david cameron. speaking at a news conference ahead of the g-20 meeting in australia, cameron called russia's actions unacceptable and outlined what he wants to see from vladimir putin. >> i would still hope the russians would see sense and recognize that they should allow ukraine to develop as an independent and free country, free to make its choices. but if they don't take that approach, then the relationship that britain has with russia, the european union has with russia, australia has with russia will be very difficult. >> this comes as russian president added the tensions by ordering a small -- ahead of the summit. tony abbott hit that by branding vladimir putin a bully.

it's not the first time that tony abbott and vladimir putin have been involved in such exchanges. >> president putin will be going to the g-20 meeting. the prime minister of australia has used a peculiar term which we're all trying to understand. he says he is going to shirt front the president, apparently, which is a sporting reference to a kind of tackle they do in australian rules football. i wonder if he's aware of the president's prowess on the judo mat. >> this is a question for the australian prime minister. i don't have the honor of being acquainted with hem. but i knew, too, of his predecessors and had good relationships with them. if he likes to use sports terms, let him go ahead. mr. putin is quite adebt at sports and they could have

forceful debate. that said, serious politicians should choose their words carefully. >> hadley, are we expecting fireworks between the two of them? >> i don't know. maybe. i would have gone more from something from the godfather and said take it to the mats. but at the same time, this is a level of bluster we're seeing from these guys at this point. what you basically have is russian worship off the coast of brisbane. they're doing flyovers over the gulf of mexico and we see what they're doing in ukraine, as well. timely nato, finally the u.n. has admitted that we have a problem there and that's quite a step for them, as you happen. but at the same point, what is nato or the eu leaders going to do about this? unfortunately she said they're not going to do anything in terms of further sanctions. and the nato countries, with can he expect anything substantive from nato?

probably not. >> is he just going unite the rest of the g-20 with him? >> it seemed to be working well for him. obviously, russia is taking a hit from these sanctions, but at the same point, no one is stopping him. you hear this coming from david cameron, as well. it seems to me if you're not willing to spank the child, the child is still going to act out. >> and some very exciting energy deals happening there. we know that's a great source of income for the military involved and the rest of the world. hadley gamble, thank you for your time. our next guest has been taking a look at the impact of russian he are sources. he says moscow pivots away from europe or china prevents further opportunities or risk. joining us now, david staples at moody's. david, redirecting the focus towards china with regards to energy and gas bills, that's one thing. but what about getting finance

from asian banks? can they fill the gap that is left behind by the sanctions and the break between european banks, russian banks? >> that's a very good question. i think at this stage, many of the deals being signed with china, some of them have come with investment, prepayment contracts, the announcement of a sale of an interest in one of rosneft's holdings. some of the deals being announced provide commitments and funding for infrastructure. whether the asian banks more broadly will step in is still an open question. the chinese government is so far showing a willingness to provide fund to go russia to support the longer term infrastructure needs to go along with these gaps. >> and overall, though, is china rubbing its hands at the threat

of further actionses coming into russia? >> well, i would hate to use the term rubbing its hands. but china has been trying to strike gas deals and energy deals globally. it has deals with the middle east, it has deals with australia, it has deals around the world. this is a perfect opportunity both for russia and china to have more secure relationships on the energy front, which the chinese so desperately have been seeking internationally. so this is creating opportunities for the chinese as well as for the russians. both have needs and i think it's falling at a good time. these are deals that have been under negotiation for a long time, though. >> at the same time, we're looking at crude oil trade at a four-year low. do you think that will accelerate the partnerships between china and russia, david? >> i think russia is able to generate substantial cash flow even at lower oil prices. some of what they're shipping,

you know, has low mining and development costs. its resources that they may end up redeemploying from other markets. in the areas that they're developing their tremendous reserve capabilities and we're not expecting that they need to go into the arctic or higher finding areas. so i think the opportunity is still there. the lower gas and oil prices don't necessarily, i think, motivate the deals. right now, china wants long-term supply contracts. >> david, thank you so much. the next time you're in london, come by the studio. it would be great to have you in person. david staples, managing director of the corporate finance group at moody's. in the last hour, the eu says starbucks may have had illegal state aid. the referred to an agreement that allowed starbucks to pay a lower dutch tax. a judge in new orleans

deciding how much bp should pay for the gulf of mexico oil spill has refused to overturn his finding that the oil giant was grossly negligent. the decision means bp could still face close to $18 billion in penalties for violating the federal clean water act. it is the latest setback in bp's effort to cub costs regarding the explosion on the deep water horizon rig. -- is maker hughes is in ta with halliburton. did "wall street journal" broke the story on thursday. baker hughes moved sharply up around 22% in frankfurt. halliburton is up 7% itself. as we said there, this would be quite significant -- be met with anti-trust difficulties given that they're the number two and

three companies in this sector. and with particularly the majors cutting back on their cap ex, putting a bit of pressure on them. but things are going to bounce back. oil and gas is getting harder and harder and these are the experts in the field. >> it's not just about lower oil prices. it's also about the overcapacity of equipment growth as for one of the analystes from clsa. there's been overcapacity in that field internationally for a long, long time. it really coincides with that lower oil price and that's why he said this is a very smart move. yes, it's a very aggressive move, but it's certainly a move that makes sense. >> absolutely. but until we are able to get clear in some anti-regulatory forces, this is still speculation on the back of that. baker hughes gain background 22%. the energy sector, one of the worst performing sectors on the s&p 500 this year, much of that having to do with the drop in the price of oil. yesterday we were able to see the energy sector stage a comeback because of the big moves in halliburton and baker

hughes. >> combined to have a 40% market share in the fracturing business. that's pretty huge. leaders were discussing price pressures. she spoke to the brazilian ambassador in the uk and asked whether a prolonged drop in oil prices would hurt investment in the country's energy sector. >> we certainly don't believe that. if you ask some of the oil people, they won't tell you anything because they don't know. but obviously, there has been many figures, there has been a reduction. but they're not concerned about that in relation to maybe it's more reliable to have investments in many oil exploration fields around the world. certainly not thefkive. >> petrobras is, without a doubt, the most recognized firm around the world. how difficult are the allegations surrounding petro bass making your job at the moment? >> not at all.

i'll tell you why. there's a partnership involved. the big companies are totally committed to it. they have much to gain and to lose, so they are committed to making this work. i'm sure everything will be scrutinized by all relevant. and they will come out very, very safe from this upheaval. >> do you think it would be wise for the president to call for greater investigations into the case? >> she is very -- investigation with all of these methods. so she has always been very much favoring the explanation involvement situation. and we've seen reports the s.e.c. and the department of justice in the united states by looking at their own investigation into petrobras. have you had any discussions with your u.s. counterpart owes that? >> certainly not me. but this is an issue that takes its natural course.

there are rules and regulations related to corporates. this has to follow its course. i'm sure that other alternatives are invested with their compromise in the united states. >> and a stock in focus yesterday, herbalife telling cnbc it was unaware until just days ago that one of its boards members was charged in a fraud case in brazil in 2008. reuters reported on thursday pedro is among 12 people that has been charged with embezzlement. ur ba life says every member is asked about anything and he always answered in the negative. now, still to come ott show, we speak to the ceo of a company that helps keep loved ones connected. more on bing after the break.

a deal with samsung to provide security solutions for

its android phones. kelly evans caught up with the blackberry ceo john kent who explained the announcement. >> it's going be a portfolio. i don't have a number in my head, but our software business today is very small. so roughly about 250 million a year. i'm hoping to get up to 500 million in a year in the next fiscal year. you will see it a little bit more significant. >> what is the fundamental case for this mobile management tool that you're announcing? is it security especially in the wake of security concerns we've seen on other phones? is it cost? is it availability? >> well, it's bits of a combination of all. but the most important thing is security. we're very focused on security, the productivity side of the equation, management, scaleability. this is a platform that is going to last us for a very, very long time. a lot of great technology on top

of that, great partnerships. you mentioned earlier samsung. a lot of the carriers host it. very excited about it. we've got something good going here. by the way, this partnership that they've had with google for years now, even on the enterprise side, how have you managed, if you will, to elbow google out of that equation? should that tell us something about samsung's strength or weakness today? >> no, i don't think. i think samsung and blackberry have different strengths in different areas. it has nothing to do with whether we're done anything with or without google.

google is a great ecosystem partner in the space. hoping that one day we could even build an ecosystem builder for samsung and beyond. >> blackberry, up about 62% year-to-date and up about 35%, a struggling hand phone setmaker that has been struggling. if you can't beat them, join them. that's exactly what blackberry is doing by creating these partnerships with samsung. >> absolutely. appear an s&p has rated twitter's debt as junk and noting the company may want generate positive cash flow until 2016.

twitter, as you can see, down around 30% so far this year and off 3% today in frankfurt off the back of the news. speaking with tech, a global network that allows people to send pop-up toes phones in 130 emerging markets. the idea is helping people abroad support loved ones back home by staying in touch. mark joins us in studio. how is this different than some of the other services that are offered right now? >> the remittent companies are very efficient at transferring cash. but it takes a few days and it's also very expensive. the thing is, we're acknowledging that everybody has cell phones and emerging markets which means that they can be reached by loved ones abroad. and they're being asked for the service and are able to receive value instantly. >> how do you monetize this?

>> we take a percentage of each transaction, between by between 2% and 7%. >> are you close to breaking even? >> we're making mope. we're profitable. we're bootstrapped. we will make $2.5 million this year. so we're through that rough period. >> and what is it you rely on? how is it this acceptable? is it because you are the quickest and simplest way to get money for phones? >> i think the key is we enable the people who receive the value on the phone to improve their lives, just for that day. so if they receive $3 on their cell phone, their day just got better. >> what are some of the biggest markets you see being a cast list for growth going forward? >> we see rest africa, we also

see asia, they're asia. >> so right now in the pop-up margins, you can make cheaper calls, but what about extending that business into, i don't know, maybe making personal because your company, you don't just want to grow geographical, but also in terms of the services you offer. where are you going, then? >> this is true been we're not just a calling facility. what we do is enable this person who receives the value to access the internet. that is the key, that they're able to use it for data. it's not just for calls. at the further moment, we're konsen trading on really good that empower the people. >> and you said you serb at 150 for your environment. i'm interested, why do you keep your headquarters in ireland? is it still a very attractive place to do business? >> it is. we've got great talent, great people, and the tax system is something that works very well

for foreign direct investment webs but not for aerospace companies where i grew up. >> is it more because you grew up there or -- >> oh, no, ireland is a fantastic place to do business. we do business rice across from the u.s. to asia. we are a mid point. >> are you an acquisition target for some of the larger telecom players out there? >> we have been, but we are not selling. we're spending a million dollars a day of cell phone pop-up and we think the potential is much, much better. >> thank you for your time. now, authorities in paris are armed are and on alert want unusual escapee. they're searching for a tiger that was released yesterday. the big cat continues to evade pressure with no word on where he came from. >> stephane, did he do a head first this morning? is he okay? >> we haven't seen him in the

last hour or so. >> i'm slightly worried now. >> he could be anywhere. let's focus, the eurozone struggles to grow and g-20 leaders scratch their head about how to create jobs. robbie tweeted us and he said, i see the lines always getting longer and probably their profits are the same. well, getting bigger. you only live once. and larry tweets us, growth 2013 to 2014 is $415 to $430 billion. interest on growth of the congressional debt issue. well, if you want to join the conversation here on "worldwide exchange," get in touch with us via e-mail, @cnbcwex. i guess it depends on where you are in the eurozone. we do see that there. italy and germany, not so much. >> let's see what all of this means, green chutes coming out of ireland.

the ftse 100 down 0.6% today. germany is flat after it was evaded recession. france and italy in the green. france, growing 0.25%. italy in recession, but perhaps doing slightly better than people expected. here is quake chuck of u.s. futures. we are expecting slightly higher start to the trading session. the s&p 500 seen up by 1.5 points. the dow jones up by 20 points after clenching its 25th record close for the year yesterday. and is there a deal brewing between halliburton and baker hughes? what does that mean for the two giants as well as the oil sector? we will discuss, next.

welcome to "worldwide exchange." these your headlines from around the world. >> italy lingers in recession. the overall figure for the eurozone due any minute. a big merger may be in the works as baker hughes is in talk wes halliburton. the deal could well exceed $20 billion. tax agenda at the top of the g-20 summit. this as the eu says a corporate tax deal between starbucks and the dutch government may have

been illegal. and the s&p slaps a junk rating on twitter's debt saying the social networking site needs to keep investing to stay relevant. >> you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. and we're got more data to tell you about. the eurozone sales quarter gdp growth came in just a tad higher than forecast. 0.2% on the quarter, 0.8% on the year. we were expecting a print of 0.1% in the third quarter for the eurozone and an annual print of 0.7%. so a slight beat there on the headline number for the eurozone. remember that the french number, that comes slightly higher than expected. 0.3%. the german number, 0.1%, that was in line with forecasts. 0.2% in portugal. we know spain is growing 0.5% in the third quarter. once again, you are seeing the

trend as follows. it seems as though the periphery is slightly supporting the core here, but overall all what we're seeing is stagnation. this is something that the ecb should be worried about. it could prompt them to do more. in the meantime, we've got another important data point to tell but. this is the eurozone october cpi. 0.4% on the year and that was, again, in line with expectations. the october cpi number on the month is 0. -- negative 0.1%. so once again, yes, we know that we found the top, we found the bottom in terms of the cpi number. from now on, it should be helping us to move higher overall. but this is an economy which is still mired in the threat of deflation, disinflation and very, very meager growth. >> absolutely, karen. as you say there, although this is disappointing data when you look at it in the absolute sense, in a relative sense, most of it has come in line with expectations today.

as you can see from the intraday chart that we were showing you of the euro. it did go down earlier in trade as we have some of the earlier data, but it has recovered. either way, the moves slightly, they haven't been back. ultimately, seema, this is confirmation of the situation in europe, but it hasn't got worse than people expected. >> still a zero ahead of these growth numbers. but hey, if you look at germany, it was able to avoid a recession in the third quarter. eurozone gdp also in focus, coming in slightly higher than what economists were expecting. we'll have to see how global markets respond. right now, mixed data, mixed markets when you look at the european markets. take a look at premarket trade in the u.s. which will digest the uran data that happen that will come out this morning. retail sales due in a couple of hours. dow jones industrial up 22 points in premarket trade. the nasdaq has been trading at a 14 1/2 year high. right now, let's take a look at

the ftse global cnbc to see how it's been reacting to the economic deet out of europe. right now, trading down by around 5 points. right now, it's trading above session lows. 6,316. diving into the european markets to see how they're reacting to the data, the ftse 100 trading in negative territory. down 9 points. the xetra dax up just about one point. as we said before, germany narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter. that brings -- at least to some investors out there. france, a tick up by around 0.3%. french markets up about 11 points in trade. >> it's worth noting that we're still seeing higher bond prices across the board. we saw the bund driving on the back of that inline number coming from germany today. this is the trend that we saw across the board.

once we show you those numbers, there you go, still seeing germany prices moving to the outside. yield still below 0.8%. why is that? because these numbers, they're not good or bad enough to change anything about further easing from the ecb and that's why you're buying thegs bonds. the buyers came back into the market after they digested the huge new supply, $66 billion in supply coming into the market. in the currency space, euro/dollar not reacting too greatly. we're still just above that two-year low. 12.2462. the dollar is driving many of these pairs nowadays. euro/dollar, up by 0.5%. investors still hoping for snap elections and a bigger mandate for mr. abe, maybe in december. the aussie/dollar is down by

0.2%. let's stick with the asian markets and see how we're fairing today. sri. >> hi, carolin. as you can see, fairley patchy as we round off the week. as you would expect, the energy council that came under a fair degree of pressure today. no surprises there, given the fact that oil prices have been trading still at four-year lows. china is going to be absolutely critical next week. on monday, the hang seng/shanghai composite index goes live. still a fair degree of pent-up demand, as well. let's talk about the nikkei 225 and the yen for that matter. third quarter gdp. if that number is on the weaker side of expectations, that could very well build a case for postponement for that controversial hike. there can be an announcement by the abe administration of a snap election, possibly around

midweek. remember, abe wants to hit the reset button and really go back to square one in terms of the reform agenda and he needs to consolidate his grip on power to do so. two very big events in the asian markets next week. back to you now. >> sri, thank you very much. we're going to talk more about markets and data. right now, joining us, catherine woods, founder and ceo. good morning to you. we just had minus 0.1% october cpi for the month on month figure. everyone is so fearful of deflation. but there are certain circumstances you were highlighting in your note where deflation is a good thing, potentially a very good thing. >> yes. we look at -- well, this is bad deflation and we learned all about that in '08-'09. and i think because of the '08-'09 the, people are very -- when they see selling prices. but there is such a thing as good inflation.

oil prices falling so the development world is very good news. another kind of inflation we're seeing more and more is deflation associated with technology. so technology is always on the declining cost curves. that seeps into pricing. technology permeates every sector of the global economy and i think that's one reason there is pressure on pricing, as well. that's good deflation. >> and lower oil prices, you think, should be a boom for stocks overall. that is a contrarian view to some people who think it's impossible to have that disconnect. let no correlation between declining oil prices and declining stock markets generally. well, i understand why people think that because we remember '06/' '08 and '09. those are some of the biggest billion markets we've ever had. i was in the markets during

those times. i remember them well, as well. i think generally, falling oil prices for most of the world is the same thing as an increase in purchasing power. and i think you saw that in walmart's results yesterday. >> we're looking at crude oil right now trade at a four-year low, catherine. deutsche bank watching that it could drop to $60 a barrel. is there any value there, particularly as we see the price of oil drop? >> we're seeing that in terms of investing. we are not focused on the energy sector right now except from the point of view that falling oil prices represent an increase in purchasing power for the global consumer. so we're really not involved in the energy skter, per se. >> what about val you auuationse

energy market? right now, we're still seeing a disconnect between the treasury market and the equity market. >> over time, as earnings continue to surprise on the high side of expectations and people continue to understand that deflation is not always a bad word and that deflation will keep interest rates low, that that will allow for a continued increase in the valuation, the pe multiples of the market. >> catherine, you're one of the first persons i've heard say deflation is a good thing. we'll see if you're right. thank you for your time. now it's time to give you a rundown of what to watch this friday. october retail sales are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern forecast to rise at 0.2%. we get at 8:30 october import prices expected to drop. just before 10:00 a.m., november consumer sentiment is out.

that will be important especially given the price that we've seen. followed by business inventories breaking around 10:00 a.m. a trio of fed officials speak today, james bullard fed vice chairman stanley fischer and fed governor jerome powell. let's take a look at top stories. baker hughes is in talk wes halliburton. any deal will likely face. baker hughes up 24%. halliburton up around 7%. >> a lot of people said this is a very bold, aggressive move. is it a desperate move? oil prices, of course, have dropped. there's a lot of overcapacity in the market. it's a move, i would argue, that makes a lot of sense. >> i think it definitely makes a lot of sense.

>> oil and gas is getting harder and hadder to find. these guys are experts. >> there are reports that the deal will take place. as we wait for that, wall street has been responding. analysts at stern ag saying they believe the acquisition of the two companies would be a win-win for both countries. the deal would significantly strengthen halliburton's areas of artificial lift and -- >> and both up significantly. meantime, dow chemicals are responding to pressure from dan loeb. on thursday, third point said it

would talk and possibly break down. one is saying dow broke promises. in a statement, the deal shows, quote, an understanding lack. ur ba life telling cnbc it was unacquire that one of its board members was charged in a fraud case in brazil in 2008. reuters reported on thursday, pedrosa was among 12 people charged with embezzlement. herbalife says all current and prospective board members are asked about any pending and closed cases over the past decade. cordoza always responded in the neff. down about 21 points. but stim in frankfurt, up 0.5%.

>> coming up, a slowdown.

welcome back. halliburton and baker hughes in talks to a merger that could

reportedly be valued at $20 billion. eurozone gdp picking up slightly more than expected, but italy lingers in recession. world leaders have arrived down under for the g-20 summit. tax evasion and the russian ukraine crisis were set to dominate the agenda. good afternoon, oriole. >> good afternoon to you, wilfred. you know what's dominating the agenda here, and i'm sure it's no surprise to you because you would have been talking about it a lot over the last 10 to 15 minutes is europe. it's not just the politics, it's the economics. some are saying the economic situation and the conflict between the two countries over whether to spend or whether to stay has the potential to derail these economic forecasts, these economic goals that the g-20 is

sliekly to put into place. on the geopolitical side, of course, you know, you talked about russia and ewe crepe. we've got nato saying that russia has, in fact, sent troops and weaponry over the border. that's now been confirmed. that is a point of contention here. the uk prime minister david cameron spoke about it in his press conference earlier on today. and he essentially threatened russia with sanctions should they continue to, as he said, he said he hopes they end up -- when it comes to this matter. putin is set to arrive anytime now, probably in the next few hours. he has spoken and he fear that's sanctions themselves contra diblth the principals of the summit activities overall. and, of course, on top of all of this, we've got australian warships monitoring movement of russian warships just off the coast of all trade ya. back to you. >> oriole, thank you very much.

we want to hear from you. as the eurozone struggles to grow and g-20 leaders are scratching their heads about how to grow further, we want to know if you're seeing growth anywhere. claudia tweeted in and said definitely seeing growth in spain. also greece who have their recent gdp numbers showing for the first time in six years they're out of recession. do get in touch with us. what are you thinking about growth at the moment? is it sufficient for world markets to continue on the up? e-mail us, worldwide@twitter. our panel handle is on the green, too. isis is launching its own currency. hadley, what exactly would it look like? >> it seems ridiculous to even be discussing it. but at the same time, you have to understand that in terms of

the area isis has under its control, it's a huge, large territory. this is a group that's there. it's going to be there for a while. we know the offenses that the u.s. is going to be leading iraqi troops in 2015, we know that's far away, anyway. we want our own country, the commodity space. the economy is based on illegal ill fills as it is. frankly, i'd like to know the exchange rate there. i'd like to know the price of goods in the islamic state. it's the price of value that give you a gauge of how confident people are in this leadership. hadley, thank you very much for that. still to come on the show, petrobas believes its earnings yet again as the oil giant mount. we'll discuss after this break. see things in a whole new way.

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retail sales are in focus today. >> rally in the u.s. markets, but that's not the case in the commodity markets. wti crude continues to drop. it's currently trading just around $74 a barrel. brent crude at $78 a barrel. wti crude now at its lowest level since september 2010. down about 31% since hitting a high on june 20th. speaking of commodities, industrial leaders were discussing the drop in crude prices. she spoke to an ambassador in the uk and asked whether lower oil prices could hurt investment into the country's energy sector. >> if you ask any oil people, and i try to, what the projection is for your prices, they won't tell you anything because they don't know. but, obviously, there has been many figures playing out. there has been a reduction. but, you know, we're not concerned about that. to have investments in many new

oil exploration fields around the world. certainly not -- >> petro bass is, without with a doubt, the most recognized firm around the world. how difficult are the allegations surrounding petrobras affecting your company around the world? >> they have much to gain and to lose. so they are committed to making it work. so it has not really make it any more difficult. i'm sure save for this. >> do you think it will call for greater investigations into the case? >> all investigations, all of these methods. she has been very much favoring the fool excavation of all the

situations. >> and we've seen reports, the s.e.c. and the department of justice in the united states are looking at their own investigate into petrobras. have you had any discussions with your u.s. counterpart owes that? >> certainly not me, but this is an issue that takes its natural course. there are rules and regulations for companies listed in the u.s. i'm sure other authorities are impressed with their counter parts in the united states. >> let's dig deeper into the story. this is a very convoluted story. the investors are saying mr. russef is very pro investigation. but she was part of the management of the company before she -- her first term in office. she's deeply entrenched into this. she leads an investigation which is totally neutral. >> well, absolutely. the investigation wouldn't be led by the executive themselves

but rather by the judicial system. this has very, very damaging political implications. he said she was part of the management of the company at the time and there are allegations that she was aware of the corruption that was taking place. now, of course, it's up to the brazilian judiciary to determine whether that's the case or not. in the past, she has shown sheeg willing to investigate people ott her own party. but we held the scandal, damaged her own approval rating during her first term. so i would think that this new corruption scandal, which appears to be equally or much larger than that one bigger implications. >> petro bass trades as an adr in the u.s. market. what do you do with this corruption scandal which continues to loom and weigh on investor sentiment? do you cut your losses and sell or do you just ride this out? >> well, i think it's very

complex for the investors because, on the run hand, oil potential continues to be very strong. on the other hand, this does highlight, underline the potential risks of being associated with corruption allegations. it remain toes be seen whether the investment grade of the company itself, petrobras is very highly indebted, whether it will be reduced further and whether it makes sense for investors to turn away from it. but i think it's way too early to say that. >> given the scandal itself and petrobras itself, investors in emerging markets usually put up with a little bit when growth rates are high. now growth rates are lower and corruption continues to be such a big issue. do you think foreign investors should shun brazil altogether? >> i think when we look at corruption and the political implications, this can affect investors directly in terms of the operating environment in the country. if we look at the run up to the

presidential election itself, protests against the government were very much fueled by people's concern for corruption and this gives the impression that corruption has continued during the current administration and could result in a revival of protest demonstrations and cause both operating disruption as well as increasing potential exposure to violence. so yes, i think for investors, it's a real cause of concern. >> thank you very much for joining us, senior analyst for latin america. still to come on the show, the two-week countdown is under way to black friday. how will u.s. retailers fair this holiday season? we'll discuss that after this short break. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities.

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a big day for european market with eurozone data in focus. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> and i'm wilfred frost. these are your headlines from around the world. >> baker hughes says it's in talk wes halliburton. a deal could well exceed $20 billion. on the agenda at the g-20 summit, this as the eu says the corporate taxfield between starbucks and the dutch government may have been illegal. and twitter shares dumble after the s&p slaps a junk rating on its debt, saying the social networking site needs to

keep investing to stay relevant. germany and france narrowly avoid recession. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. and if you're just tuning in, thanks for joining us here on "worldwide exchange." here is a look at how markets are fairing at the market in premarket trade. keep in mind the markets continued its prime in yesterday's trade. the s&p, the dow industrials and the dow transports index setting new intraday all-time highs. the dow strils closing at a flash record at 17,752 right now indicating a higher move in pretty much trade. s&p 500 trading higher by just around a couple of boys. trading at a fresh 14 1/2 year high.

now, taking a look at european markets, we've had a lot of data coming out this morning on gdp growth which has been a focal point for investors giving concerns around the european economy. european trade down around 6 points. the xetra dax was trading into positive territory, but now it has dipped into negative territory, despite germany narrowly avoiding a recession in the third quarter. a jump in gdp or growth around 0.3%. italy is in recession. stock market, about 104 points. just around 0.5% down or flat on the day. carolin.

>> let's focus back on the u.s. after a slew of u.s. retail giants earning this week, economists are looking to see whether falling prices at the pump will translate into more shopping by consumers and their run up to the holiday period. you have to say the upcoming christmas will be the best in the last five years. >> i don't think you're going to have a good christmas unless you're a strong omni channel retailer. that's why i like nordstroms, macy's, walmart because they're doing a good job online. if you're not playing well online, you're not going play very well at all. mall traffic is down about 4% right now year-to-date in the states. it will be down more than that in the fourth quarter. so you better have a good online business if you're going to

succeed. beyond that, i mean, there's a lot of good things going on for the consumer, not just falling gas prices, but falling gas prices is probably the biggest one. we're looking now at about $60 billion of extra spending power in the retail fourth quarter. that's november, december, january alone. just from falling gas prices. so i'm really pretty optimistic now that the stock market has quit doing crazy things and is now just progressing slowly upward because there's a very big correlation between the stock market pressurizatiapprec holiday sales. we're not going as bad of weather as last year. we've got more people working, 2 million more people working in the states. we have the lowest unemployment in 14 years as far as unemployment claims. it's just much better for the consumer. there's that very high consumer confidence. i'm looking forward to see what the next consumer confidence number is. but so far, we've had really

good consumer confidence numbers the last month. so i think despite the third quarter being marginally disappointing for these retailers, they could have a really solid fourth quarter if you're good on internet sales and mobile sales. >> and there is an assumption that lower gas prices will lead to higher retail spending. but is that true to say given the fact that consumers could potentially use lower gas prices as a way to buy other things? why retail? >> well, i think they will. i think quick serve restaurants will do well. i think casual dining will do well. but $60 billion on a $600 billion season is a lot. that would be a good chunk of that work its way into the retail channel. they could also just save it, but i don't think they will because they have healthier balance sheets now than they've had in a long time. they may actually use their credit for the first time in a long time to drive christmas sales. if you're going to do it, this is the time of year you do it. yes, they'll have more money, they have spending power on their credit cards.

they're going to have better weather, it's a longer selling season. i mean, it's hard to find something going the wrong way other than, like you said, they may elect to spend it some place, but i can't see where it went. they have to spend it all in september on iphones. so yes, it's certainly possible, but i think you'll see a lot more sweaters under the christmas tree than you did last year. i think it will be the best time for apparel sales in five years. that doesn't mean they won't spend some of that money other places. >> and we're running out of time here, but you say walmart is going to be the winner of the holiday season. break down why that is. >> walmart had its first positive conference in seven quarters that they just released. i believe the lower end consumer, the gas falling means a lot more to the low end consumer than it does the high end consumer. if you're spending $60 a month on gas and you're making 40 grand a year, it's a big deal. if you're spending it and making $150 grand a year, it's not such a big deal.

so the walmart customer gets a big break from gas. also, walmart is running its business so much better than it was. better end stocks, more aggressive on price, they're doing all the right retailing 101 stuff that sam walton did for all those years. doug mcmillan is running the company already better than it's been run in a long time. they're going to capitalize on this christmas season jay with an overly optimistic view on retail spending. there's a lot of bears out there, wilfred, who say bad weather could curb holiday spending this season. s&p has rated twitter's debt as junk and noting the company may not generate positive cash flow until 2016. s&p says while twitter's growth potential is strong, it will need to may continual sizable investments in products and services to ensure ta growth and maintain relevance with users. taking a look at shares of twitter, which have had a volatile week, down about 30%

this year and down just about 3% in in frankfurt. now, barclay's shares ended the session some 7% higher. including a deal with sam suck to provide security solutions for its android phones. acid you can see, up 7% yesterday, around 17% in the green over the last week. virgin america has priced its ipo at $370 million. which is a dollar at the u.s. airlines. on a programming note, virgin america's ceo will be on "squawk on the street" on a first on cnbc interview, that's at 10:00 a.m. eastern. coming up, there could be a sizable deal coming in the oil sector. anti-trust regulators sign off. details between baker hughes and halliburton, coming, in.

the oil market continues to post losses. the price of brent crude oil trading below $8 0 a barrel, the lowest level in four years. as a result, energy stocks continue to underperform. in fact, the worst performing

sector in the s&p 500 is energy. energy is the only s&p sector, by the way, trading below a 50-day and 200-day moving average. wilfred. >> and the question is what can be the short-term capittalyst t turn it around? perhaps the opec meeting or perhaps m&a in the sector inspect a major merger deal could be in the works in the oil services sector and maybe that will be the thing that helps companies turn around their share price decline. hampton pearson is in washington with more on the story. hampton. >> wilfred, one of the biggest stories of the day, baker hughes, is confirming its identities in preliminary merger talking with its larger rival, halliburt halliburton. although any deal would likely face anti-trust concerns. reports say the talks are moving quickly and a deal would come at a premium to baker hughes market cap which stood at just under $22 billion on thursday. before "the wall street journal" broke the news. reports say halliburton made an

unsolicited approach and has been looking at baker hughes for years. hall betteron and baker hughes are the world's second and third largest oil service companies behind schlumberger. a tie up would creates drilling, logistics and well services giant with 140,000 employees and a company worth around $67 billion. but the recent drop in oil prices threatens their business as it makes oil and gas production less profitable and could spur customers to cut back on operations or demand better prices from their suppliers. bulk company stocks have dropped sharply since the beginning of the summer. baker, which rose 16% on thursday, is down 16% since june. halliburton, which closed up 1% on thursday, is down 16% over that same period. the companies would have to get approval from regulators. they parade in more than 80

countries and have at least over seven different product lines. they would control about half the global market for commenting or encasing wells in cement to prevent leaks. the last major deal in the energy sector was in august when kinder morgan moved various subsidiaries into just one company. there have been just 11 energy bills above $20 billion since 1995, according to deo logic. overall, they have popped $2.9 trillion this year, up 28% from last year. checking baker hughes and halliburton in europe today, right now, they're both higher. bhi up 24%. halliburton around 7%. a big potential deal out there, wilfred. >> hampton, thank you very much. dow chemical is respond to go pressure from dan loeb. on thursday, third point said it

was considering a proxy fight after talks overboard seats broke down. there's a website that's features a video saying dow broke its promises and is making excuses for lagging rivals. in a statement, the video shows a fundamental lack of the country. dow chemical shares up about 2% in frankfurt. and it's that time of year again, the third of the bell closi closing. pepsi coal has rejected peltz's calls to remove the snacks division from its beverage division. let's have a quick check off how shares are performing. pepsico is up fractionally and dupont is down 0.5%.

bny melon, my former employer. before we go to break, halliburton and baker hughes are in talks for a merger. s&p is flat and on its debt. up slightly more than expected. italy lingers in the session. e ] yes! where have you been? the future! and it looks bright. but we need to upgrade our network power protection. no problem we're working on a smart ups system from apc and cdw. gonna keep our network powered and highly available. did you just alter the space-time continuum? we gotta go back. we can't. it's broke. uh oh...

welcome back. german gdp, 0.1% for the third quarter. italy, however, languishing still in recession. down 0.1% in the quarter. france, 0.3% for the quarter. what does the sum total mean? the eurozone is growing at 0.2%.

that was fractionally ahead of expectations, but all in all, what does it concern? very low growth levels. cpi came out at minus 1.1% month on month and plus 0.4% year on year. keeping pressure on the ecb clearly we have not stoppgot th inflation that we want to have in the eurozone. italy's markets up 0.4%. france fractionally in the green meanwhile germany and the uk underperforming. the dow jones industrial up just about 89 points in premarket trade. investors keeping an eye on that eurozone gdp data which came in slightly higher than expectations. the question is, how do you make money in these markets? the stocks trading at record highs. here is what some of the experts have been telling us this

morning. >> i like equities. i'm long equities. i'm long the nikkei. that's my biggest single equities, that's been wonderful. and i'd like to say that that of japan a week ago, actually, i'm very pleased to benefit from them. >> even though u.s. treasury curve back behind the fed, rates aren't going to go up significantly. so in the uk markets, for example, down 2.5%. >> the euro/dollar continue stronger against the yen. euro, if you look at euro versus the yen, it's at really interesting levels, close to 1.45. i think that right there could be rather at a cross. >> and time to give you a rundown of what to watch this trading day. october retail sales are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern, forecast to rise 0.2%. at 8:30, we get import prices

expected to drop 1.2%. just before 10:00 a.m., november consumer sentiment is out followed by september business inventories. a trio of fed officials speak today, st. louis fed president james bullard, vice chairman stanley fischer and jerome powell. joini infutures pointing to a slightly lower open. we didn't see a great deal of conviction. are there be in the changes in those today? >> good morning. i don't think you're going to see any big change. remember one thing, we are still a cheap money, chase free yield driven stock market. and let's not confuts the stock market with the overall economy. the overall economy is still in recessionary times. we're seeing the low, the middle class, the average guys are still in recession while the equity markets continue to push the new highs, emerging equities because there's plenty of cheap

money around. the big picture is that the economy and the equity markets are this far apart because at the end of the day, it's all that yield looking for more money, but the middle chas still struggles and languishes in a recession. >> if you got scared by the volatility that took place in the month of october, sold your positions and have been waiting on the sidelines and have missed out on the rebounds that we've been seeing in the markets over the past couple of weeks, is it too late to get back in or can you get into the markets now and reap some gapes? >> i think if you're a stock picker, you can find something to get in. i think if you're looking at the overall general markets, i would say we're 1% or 2% from the absolute high we're going to see for a while. so as far as the big general market, i think it's too late. but there's always stocks that you can potentially pick to get in through, you know, through deals. there's always something that's value conscious and that's reasonable to buy. but as far as the overall markets, i would say 1% or 2% from the all-time high here in

the top and i would look to be a short seller if i was going to do anything up here. >> what are a couple of those stocks or sectors if you were getting into the market that you would be going long on? >> with tell, i think now if yo going to look to go in, you could look into some of the safer areas, some of the staple items. those are the areas that will continue to strive, no matter what is going on. stocks like verizon.ff, if w the stocks like at&t that will be solid dividend builders. they're not sexy, they're not exciting, but they're going to pay consistent yields and that's where money runs to when it comes down to the higher risk equity markets. >> and the most oversold sector is volatility. so are those fears that were taking place that were topical for investors in october, ebola, isis, ukraine, are those fears

completely gone or are investors, can they sit back and relax? >> you know, i think what you're seeing, and this is -- you know, ed thompson values the markets. the overall complacency, which is signified by the vix, we're coming back to your ten-year lows in volatility and close to all-time lows in volatility. that is a sign that investors are selling puts, they have no fear, they know the markets can never go down again. and we all know what happens when we get to that point where we know that something can occur. i think that's what we're seeing here is a big complacency in the overall market, telling us, investors saying we're not going down, which means we're probably very close to an event that's going to spike volatility and in the summer of 2006 and '7. >> todd horwitz, author and founder of averagejoeoptions.com. that would do it for us on

"worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> i'm carolin roth. >> have a wonderful weekend. i'm wilfred frost. "squawk box" is next. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day arfolk southern.

good morning. friday. no end in sight. the international energy agency predicts oil prices will fall further. a big day yesterday, amazing to watch. a secret u.s. spy program, the justice department reportedly targeting criminals, but data on innocent americans in the process. and a full press nba commissioner, adam silver, is speaking out, calling for the legalization of betting. friday, november 14th, 2014, and "squawk box" begins right now.

>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. there are some disturbing new details today about a security breach at the white house earlier this fall. and the failures that let an armed intruder make his way into the front door of the family's residence. including an officer who was distracted talking on his cell phone at that point. we'll have that story in just a few minutes. the dow just coming off another record close. the s&p, as well. these are modest gains. but look, you're talking about the s&p over 2000 at this point. the nasdaq on a four-day winning streak, trading at levels we haven't seen in over 14 years. all the major averages are on pace for the fourth straight week of gains. on today's economic calendar, a few reports of note.