onboard with that. whether that's the reason we get it, or if that's how we get it, i really can't respond to that. >> joe torre, please come back and explain what happened to the yankees next time, if you could. we appreciate you being here. really. joe torre, again, raising money as well for "safe at home." and to the panel, thanks as well. have a great weekend, everybody. and "fast money" begins right now. see you on&. >> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. we have pete, brian, josh, and guy. it has been a solid year for the biotech trade, but those stocks taking a beating today. could this be the start of an even bigger pullback? plus, following the smart fun. they are out and several top hedges are loading up on one high-flying tech name. the details straight ahead. but first, it might have seemed like a quiet day on the markets, but the real move was in gold. ending the day higher by just under 2.5%. is this the beginning of gold to

move higher? it seems like if this gets passed, this will at the very least put a four into gold. >> no doubt. i think it will at least up until the november 30th vote. it's about 45% for at this point in time. but also another reason why gold was up is russia -- the world gold council came out and said russia has bought 59% of the gold that central banks have bought over the last quarter. we know that they probably bought some more that they're not disclosing, so you add those two things in the gold market putting a floor under it. this morning what was interesting is you saw gold moving up with the dollar moving up. so you knew something was happening there. if the swiss referendum passes, they're going to have to buy a whole bunch of gold from now until 2019. >> yeah. i'm not a swiss citizen. >> you're not? >> so we actually looked at what this referendum would do should it be passed. it's extraordinary what requirements we've put on the

swiss national bank should this be passed. gold reserves would not be held. gold reserves would be held in switzerland. and the reserves must be significant and not fall below 20%. >> 8% now. if it happens, over the course of five or six years. it's not like it's going to be bought overnight. but i think the statement it makes is interesting. look at the move those stocks had. up 6% today. pan american up close to 9%. i think there's becoming a disconnect between the paper gold and silver as opposed to the physical and it might start manifesting itself in some of the stocks. >> i think we're witnessing a rally in the bear market. bear market rallies tend to be short, very sharp, surprise people. but in the end, when they dissipate, it's more disappointment. lower lows to follow. and i'll tell you, even if this does pass, it really only requires switzerland to buy on an annual basis.

about 7% of the total global gold demand, which is 4,000 tons a year. i don't think that really moves the needle and it certainly doesn't compensate for all of the people that are selling it on the investment side, which let's be frank, is what really drives the price. >> i think this is more of a short-term type of a pop that we're seeing. i don't think it being sustained. i think the one interesting thing is whenever you look at gold, it moves faster, which is silver. the slv had a lot of activity recently. so, you know, if you believe in this move in gold -- >> but they're predicated on much different things. >> totally agree with you. >> solar is industrial. >> not really, though. but it used to be. we don't develop film anymore. the industrial component with silver, i always hear the argument. i think it's a little bit overstated. silver had its best week in years, up 4.4%. and i think people get excited about that market when gold moves. you guys were 100% right. but that's going to get hit the

hardest when this rally fades. >> this is a changed gold market. that's why this is important. this is a completely changed gold market. completely changed foreign currency market. even if it doesn't go through, what's happening is you're starting to remonetize gold. once you start that belief system going, the first person to do this wins. so if russia decides to have a gold-backed currency, they win. >> what do they win? >> they win the strongest currency. look at what's happened -- >> removal becomes the strongest currency? >> if you back it with gold. absolutely. >> am i having a dream right now? >> no! >> you don't think if they backed it with gold, it's not a strong currency? >> you said the strongest currency. >> absolutely. >> either way, priced to the upside and level to the downside. >> again, i understand what pete and josh are saying about the paper etfs. i do think there will be continued pressure. the people have owned the wrong

thing. it's been in the physical -- it's only been changing over the last couple months. there is a disconnect between the physical market and the paper market. that will continue to manifest itself, i believe, and i think the stocks that we mentioned earlier will take advantage of that. >> shares of the idb and the s&p falling almost 2% today after logging a massive gain so far this year. let's bring in the citigroup managing director, good to see you again. >> good to see you. thank you. >> and you're noticing some signs that may suggest that perhaps the run is fatigued at this point in terms of technical levels and flows. >> yeah. if you look at the sector fundamentals, they continue to be very robust. we're seeing a lot of interest. fundamentals are good. earnings are going up. and pipelines are pretty healthy. but if you look near-term, fund flows are pretty stable. we're not seeing any new money

coming into the sector. if you look at tterrelltivat th strength index, it's back to the overbought levels. so there might be a correction at some point. i do think people will come back and buy any dips. >> you see a correction in 2015. >> i think it's going to be early '15. i don't think it's going to happen late this year. i do think people will continue to own the stocks into the end of this year. there's a big conference early next year and i think after that, we could see a correction. >> you also say that investors seem to be preferring large over small biotechs as part of this whole move into large caps. it has been a lagger compared to the ivb so far this year. >> yeah, so we run an investor survey every quarter. investors are overweight, large capped, a little more cautious in small mid cap.

we have a tactical near-term list. and for us, we do think they might have a patent challenge coming by the end of the year. we do think earnings are going to go up. >> and you touched on it with gilead. that's where i was going to go. as far as the pipeliner, what is it that excites you going into 2015? which part of the pipeline. amgen is not on that list, and why? >> it's a good question. so as you guys know, and you guys have been all over this, amgen has had a nice move up. we think estimates are low for next year and we think they're going to continue. but a lot of the move in the stock has already happened. it's not as cheap as it used to be. >> let's talk about gilead real quick. the stock had a huge run to 116. i think people were upset by the

sales, which were weak. but pete has talked about this as a tremendous pipeline. obviously a huge market cap company. i think you have a 136 price target. you can correct me. but you're looking for another 30% to the upside. how do you get there? >> we continue to think it's going to be very robust. they're launching a new product, it's going to be the best in class. it's going to be the market leader. the stock has been under a lot of pressure because of concerns over reimbursement. we all know hepatitis c is a big market. there's going to be a competitor coming soon. pricing is going to get a little softer. but we do model for that. we do think demand is going to firm up. they're launching xus, and we think a launch there is going to be very robust. so our estimates are above consensus. >> what's your top pick? and let me fine tune that question. which stock in your coverage universe has the most upside to your price target from here? >> the most upside from here. let me tell you this.

we just added tsro. it's a small cap stock. about 900 million market cap. it has been languishing over the last 12 months this year because of no catalyst. but if you look at next year, they have a proven management team. they're going to be launching a cancer drug in the middle of the year and we're looking for very important data in ovarian cancer in the first half of the year to the middle of the year. we think it's going to be a blockbuster with north of 1 billion in sales. the stock has been left for dead essentially and we think it set up really well into next year. >> thanks for your time. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> pete, top biotech pick? >> for me, it's amgen. i agree with robin. she had just raised her target earlier this week from 190 to 192. if that is even close to existing right now, i think that name is the best name right now. >> i think it's amgen, gilead. we've been on amgen for a while. no reason for it to stop.

>> i won't speak to the specific names, but i will say you have the nasdaq move up this week and biotech move down. that's very rare. biotech is 15% of the cues. i think that's a sign of things to come. people are taking a break with this sector. it's been really good. they're shifting elsewhere. i think we'll have plenty of time to buy your favorite name. >> i look at biotech as a sentiment indicator. when you see it come off like that, and if you watch the biotechs, they tend to sell off before the rest of the market. that's where i -- not necessarily trade them, but i use them to trade other sectors. >> still ahead, mr. regis philbin is taking a victory lap today. the details next. and later, could the boaten down euro bank trade be bracing for a turnaround? pete has got some seriously unusual activity on one of those names ahead. are investing almost $80 million dollars, and creating 1750 jobs.

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back to one name locking in some serious gains in today's session. amazon rallying nearly 4% and crossing that 330 level midday. regis philbin was hot on the name last week when he visited us here on set. take a listen. >> i bought it at 280.

it went up to 310. i bought it again at 310. and now it's back down. >> oh. >> so i'm losing and getting a little nervous. >> wow, regis ended up making a good call here. it's critical, though. this is right about its moving day average. >> it flushed down to 275 in that earnings call. we talked about the potential for the trade back to 315. got there. i said to take profits anywhere between 310 and 315. this move to me -- i did not anticipate it. i think dan nathan talked about this. the option market was seeing something. i still think you're in a downturn. my sense is you're in nosebleed area here. >> i mean, hindsight is 20/20. but entering a seasonally strong period for amazon specifically in retail in general. and then we have lower gas prices. >> the 15% off that low, though, already. and forget about a 200 day. it's a declining 200 day. amazon hasn't been above its 200

day since july. i don't think the stock deserves the benefit of the doubt. let's see if it can grab through that level, hold there. for right now, i would say i missed the trade and move on. >> benefit of the doubt is the right term here, because i think the market has not given jeff bezos the benefit of the doubt anymore. spending all that money, not making any money. this year has been the year for amazon every quarter. people just crush this stock. if you're out there, bk says take your profits down. >> i'd probably go along with the guys. it's sort of in a prove me spot right now. i still like baba. i think baba goes higher. >> 13-f filings are out. dom has the names. >> there's a whole host of hedge funds that are now getting into this alibaba trade. as of september 30th. so this data is 45 days old. but assuming these hedge funds have still held it, the shares of alibaba are worth around $89

back on september 30th. they're about -- we'll call it $115 right now. dan lobe's llc took a new 7.2 million shares stake as of september 30th. also soros fund management. paulson and company nearly 2 million shares of alibaba. tiger management, about 1.2 million shares. i mean, the numbers there at 7.2 million shares, we are talking about a stake for dan lobe that if he still held it is worth some $829 million. there's a whole host of other ones. david tepper at appaloosa. farallon capital 531,000. omega advisers 410,000. jana partners. the list goes on here at this point. but it's an interesting theme developing here as many of these hedge fund managers, big titans and heavyweights have now gotten into this alibaba trade. whether or not they stay there,

we'll find out next quarter. this data, 45 days old but a very interesting theme for some of these big names. >> thanks so much, dom. it seems like it was the easy trade to make within the past 45 days. it's a harder trade to exit at this point. i mean, we saw 120 and we haven't seen it again. >> although that was just a couple days ago. that was another fresh high. here we are, pull back to what was the fresh highs before that day before it went to 120. i still like alibaba. i still like yahoo as well. it got through that 50 number. it's now trading close to $52 a share. we talked a week ago about the 60 strike calls. i don't think those are so ridiculous anymore. i think 55 is easily within their sights. >> the hedge funds are using this as a way to generate performance. it's really helpful that it's such a huge stock. number two, it's not an anti-index. if you have a big profit in this thing, it's all pure alpha. i think that's something that will probably continue at least until the end of the year. when you see this thing on dips, it's a sure bet that hedge funds

are probably adding rather than selling. >> again, kudos sticking with yahoo. i thought it was much higher than that. but the tell in yahoo this week was a couple days when alibaba was lower. bk mentioned this on tuesday. yahoo was unchanged. yahoo traded really well on a negative day for baba. pete's probably going to be spot-on. >> big movers of the day. drop for nokia, down 5%. >> which really is interesting because they put out some positive. they raised the 2015 long-term target. >> harley davidson up 1%. >> goldman is saying its ten-year average is something like 17 times forward earnings. they also point to strong gains in construction employment, which believe it or not has a pretty high correlation to future bike sales. i think the stock was higher. >> drop for hertz. >> they had to restate some of

their earnings. needed to rent one of their gps systems to find it, because it was way down low in the release. this stock has gotten crushed. hasn't really rebounded with the market, so for bk, it's a no touch. i think it's broken. >> big one, up 12%. >> some positive headlines for these guys. you would think on a day where this stock is up 11%, you'd have huge volume. you have normal volume. 28% short interest, tells me stay with this on the long side for a while. up next, it has been a strong month for the airlines, up 25% from those new lows. virgin america soaring in its first day trade. we're breaking down the move next. from record-breaking highs to major market meltdowns, every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades, serving up in-depth analysis and actionable advice. >> i do think oil is going to go lower. i don't think it has anything to do with demand. >> all to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> you can get some beta in some

of these solar names, and this one makes as much sense as any other one. >> this is "fast money." >> not all guys who are activists get done what they want to have done. >> have a markets question for the "fast money" traders? tweet us @cnbcfastmoney.

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welcome back to "fast money." we're keeping an eye on shares of oil services company baker hughes right now, which is down about 3% in the after hours trade. this on bloomberg head lines right now that said that talks between haliburton and the company baker hughes are said to have stalled on issues such as price and asset sales. that's according to sources. bloomberg citing sources saying that haliburton's talks to acquire baker hughes have stalled on priesz and asset sales. also that haliburton could look -- or is said to be considering a possible hostile offer to take over baker hughes. but again, those shares down about 3% right now in the after hours trade. back over to you guys. >> all right, dom, thank you very much for that. guy, you had some questions as to whether or not this would actually go through. >> where there's smoke, there's fire. going to get more positive headlines about this at a certain point as well. i think these things are going

to vacillate. i think it says that space is in play. doesn't mean this deal is going to get done, but it's interesting. especially given the ridiculous selloff in a lot of these names. >> let's hit some unusual activity. we go to pete for that. you're looking at deutsche bank. >> which is actually trading underneath half of the book value right now. obviously pricing in all of what everybody's expecting out of europe. however, today, as it's hitting virtually at the 52-week lows, huge buying of the april 35-strike calls. over 20,000 of these traded on the day. people looking for a bounce. they want to buy some time. very interesting to see this trade out there. obviously very bullish expectations. but buying plenty of time. >> let's talk pandora here. kicking off our top trades. the stock higher by 17% after s.e.c. filings revealed the chairman and ceo brian mcandrews purchased 25,000 shares of the first purchase by pandora insider since the company's ipo. >> i think that it's nice to see, but i don't think that it's

very momentous when you peel the layers back. it's only half a million dollars. it's only the first insider buy for pandora since it became public in 2011. and quite frankly, he could buy a lot more stock, but i think the real pressing issue is this probably should not be a standalone company. it should probably be in the arms of a much larger internet company that needs a streaming service, and there's no shortage of those. until that gets closer, i really don't know that this stock is going to find sponsorship, although i like to see the guy put some more skin in the game. >> if you held it -- >> i like the company and i do think it will get bought. >> so why wouldn't you want to buy it? >> because you know why? there are so many other great stocks to own right now. this thing is very close to 52-week lows. much closer. i'm focusing on things that are trends. but this is a company i do think ultimately will create some value when there's a deal. but i just don't have the capital to be in everything.

>> virgin america soared more than 30% today, comes on the heels of a strong month in the airlines sector, which is up 25% from october lows. >> i love these airlines. i love this ipo. but really never had an opportunity. the ipo price at 23. ran up to 31. closed the day at 30. great reception by everybody. great timing also by richard branson. i like this name. i don't know enough about it. i don't think any of us do. after we get through an earnings cycle or two, i think we'll be much more comfortable. this has been a company that has not made a lot of money in the past. the rest of these airlines, because of everything that's been going on, they are making a lot of money. i'm going to stick with some of those carriers that have been around a long time. >> time now for the final trade. pete? >> huge apple. i think it goes higher. >> guy talked about the difference between paper and physical gold. in this market, you want to go to the ones who hold physical

gold. >> twitter bounced exactly where it should have. i think it's fairly solid and i think they'll run this name up until the end of the year. >> guy. >> what's that expression right as rain? what does that mean? >> i don't know. >> because pete said something to me in the break. right as rain. >> anyway, what's your final trade? >> mcdonald's! >> follow guy on dad twitter. >> that does it for us. thanks so much for watching. did you miss the rally? we have one trader that could surge into year end. "options action" starts right after this break. see you then. ♪

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this is "options action." tonight -- that pretty much describes the transport stocks, but we'll tell you why traders could soon be in withdrawal. plus, missing out on the rally? relax, because we have got the tech name that could crush the market in the next two months. >> i like it a lot. >> you sure will, and we'll tell you what it is. and don't let this happen to your apple shares. after a huge run, we've got a way to protect your apple stock for free. the action starts right now.