welcome to on the money. socks hit new high, oil hits new lows but what do you do? how the high tech and auto industry are merging on the business highway. our conversation with ceo mark fields. and it's the avon lady reimagined. how one startup company is disrupting the way beauty products are being sold. plus, the talk about money that you need to have with aging relatives. whether they want to or not. "on the money starts right now." here's a look at what's

making news as we head into a new week on the money. if you did serious shopping last month, you were not alone. retail sales rose by three-tenths of a percent in october. that's important because consumption makes up more than two-thirds of the u.s. economy. that number was slightly better than expected and due in part to falling gas price which is put mrs. money into consumers' pockets. gas prices fell because crude oil tumbled to a fresh four-year low. it was below $75 a barrel by the end of the week. that's partly because of increased production in the u.s., also partly because of decreasing global demand. setting a record for stocks is beginning to sound a little bit like a breaken record. the dow said another new all time high on thursday. that was the 25th this year. the nasdaq closed at its highest point in more than 14 years. stocks were mixed on friday. earnings season is winding down and big retailers beat expectations. walmart, macy's, j.c. penney and nordstrom did petter than expected.

cisco did well as well. warren buffett isn't likely to run out of batteries, berkshire hathaway adding buying duracell. that adds to dairy queen, heinz and geico. stocks continue to set records. gas and oil prices continue to plunge, mostly good news. but what if you are looking for income and yield? joining us is rick reider, chief investment officer of fundamental fixed income at blackrock and erin gibbs. thank you both for being here today. rick, you have about $680 billion in assets in under management you oversee. there are so many people are who are looking for glee ing for yi interest rate environment. what do you tell them? >> we live a world of slow global growth and monetary policy around the world so rates are going to stay low for a long time. i think what people are challenged by is wait until you get a higher rate environment. the problem is rates will stay

low we think for a long period of time. so you have to be tactical about where you find opportunities. parts of the emerging markets today are interesting. the high yield market has become attractive again and attractive being when you get to 6% which on a historic basis doesn't seem great but that's the world we'll live in for a long time as long as we're in this paradigm. >> do you worry about investors reaching for yield or are they throwing things out of whack because so many people are stretching so far? >> i do. part of why we've been adamant about the fed can start to move policy is that we're not in emergency conditions anymore and if we got to a 1% funds rate, think about a 1% funds rate in a historic context, it's extraordinarily low interest rates. but cash at zero means people need to extend and look for other things. so i don't think it's a crisis today. but i do think that as the fed starts to normalize policy people say, oh, my gosh, that's a disaster, it's hard for markets. i think it create mrs. stability, it creates more natural equilibrium. >> we're at the end of earnings

season, what did you think we saw and what do you think about what we can earn next year with the s&p 500? >> q 3 earnings season was interesting when we look at the number of companies that beat analyst estimates versus what we typically see. 74% of the s&p 500 companies beat analyst estimates. the norm is about 64% and it's always been in a tight range. it's typically like 65%, 62%. so that big change really says that companies really surprised wall street, they really did earn a lot more and it really came from also having a lot less misses. so q-3 looks solid and we look like we'll have about 9% earnings growth when we went into the quarter expecting 4%ment more than double. >> that's great news. one thing that could throw a wrench into the works next year is what happens to energy pirates because energy makes up a big portion of the s&p 500. if energy prices continue at these low levels -- >> exactly. >> -- what happens to earnings

next year? >> we've seen earnings come down already. earnings for next year used to be at about 11% growth. they've come down to 8% right now. so we have seen that ratcheting down. but considering how low the estimates have been to begin with and how we've seen companies either better managing expectations but also just beating better and having clear better drivers fundamentally, it does look like we're going to hit the upper like upper single digits, low middle digits for next year's growth. >> rick, let's talk about the u.s. economy because you brought up a great point with this idea that younger people are having trouble finding jobs because older people aren't leaving like they used to. what do you think about the u.s. economy overall? forget about the job issues we've had along the way. >> i think part of that is literally a reiching that has to take place allowing young people to get work. that being said, job openings are quite buoyant, they're quite strong. i think the u.s. economy is in very solid shape. the tail winds to economic

growth, monetary policy being easy, the tail winds are an innovation of the technology that have created more efficient production in the u.s., incredible, energy, the consumption, multiplier you got from energy is incredible. the system is delevered different than europe or japan and we have a delevered system you can create more lending, more velocity in the economy so you have a series of tail winds that we think are powerful and the dollar rallies, people talked about exports, i think people overestimate the fact that u.s. is a closed economy relative to the rest of the world. our export as a percent of gdp is in the low teens. so anyway, i think economy is going to be solid. it's not fantastic groet but we'll be in a three plus growth gdp dynamic for an extended period of time. >> erin, what are you watching for in the week ahead? >> we're always concerned about the holiday season but already it's about what's going to happen in 2015. and for us i think there are a few industries that are really

attractive. the bioteches are rally the drivers of the health care sector that we've seen. also airlines have been doing phenomenally well and also shipping. obviously we all buy from amazon now and get it shipped to our home, airlines is part of that. >> especially the holiday season. >> exactly. another part is utilities of all things. they offer a high dividend yield but utilities for the southeast region of the u.s. has really seen a boom and those utilities actually have like 20% pro fit growth forecasted for next year. very unusual for what you expect of a utility company. so southeast utilities are a nice leap that look good and have lower volatility. >> erin, rick, thank you both for coming in today. >> thanks a lot. up next, on the money, we're on the road with the new ceo of ford. how the company is taking a new gamble with its new truck. and how the worlds of high tech and automaking are colliding to make the car of the future. trying new products can be an expensive gamble.

how one start up aims to cut the risk with one small box. as we head to a break, look at how the stock market ended the week.

this week, ford rolled out its all new all aluminum f-series pick up truck. that's a product crucial to its bottom line, with the profit margin of up to $10,000 a vehicles. it's lighter, more efficient and represents one of the biggest changes ford has gone through in its manufacturing process. we had a chance to speak to ford's ceo mark fields about ford, its future, and that big truck. mark, we want to thank you very much for joining us today. >> oh, thanks for having me on, becky. >> mechanic, the new truck has a lot of excitement out there, a

lot of people buzzing about it. but it's a hugely important part. this is your bread and butt we are the big profit margins we were talking about, as much as $10,000 a vehicle. i wonder, in terms of being excited about what it did you think and in terms of being worried, is there anything that keeps you up at night with this launch? >> no. this launch is exactly on plan and we're exactly where we expected to be. as you said, this is a big deal for our company. it's a big deal in terms of the volume it provides our company, in terms of the profitability and a big deal to our customers. but we are very comfortable where we are with the launch. they're rolling down the line. this week we're launching it here in the plant and we can't wait to get them into our cust mes' hands. >> we see them rolling out behind you right now. mark, a lot of things determine consumer behavior. we've been watching gas prices at their lowest level in three years. we're looking at $3 a gallon and lower in many parts of the country. i wonder what that means to consumers hourvegs that changes their behavior and what that

mean for ford. >> well, i think overall when you look at gas prices coming down, that puts more money in consumers' pocket and that gives them more flexibility whether they want to save that money, whether they want to buy some other things for their families, save for college educations and i think for ford what it means for the auto industry is clearly it allows people to afford vehicles more and i think overall that's a positive for the auto industry and it's a positive for us, particularly as we're launching all these new product this is year. >> mark, the auto industry is on track right now for its best year since 2006. i wonder if you can tell me if you think it's because the consumer is doing so much better or auto sales are up because the average age of the american car is still about 11 years. >> well, i think it's a number of factors when you look at the industry and the health of the industry size these days. i think partly as you're seeing replacement demand. by our calculations, 50% of the cars that are out on the roads

today are ten years or older. so you're seeing a healthy level of replacement demand. when you look at consumer confidence, i mean, these days consumers are feeling a bit more better about their job security, you're seeing that in some of the business confidence surveys, interest rates are relatively low. so i think that bodes well in terms of the industry and the economy going forward and i don't think we're at a peak. we'll probably see a little bit more growth. but i think that growth is sustainable over a period of time. >> mark, i'm glad you brought up interest rates. those low interest rates have been a huge boon to the consumer. they've helped with housing sales, they've helped with auto sales. what happens as interest rates start to rise? i know it's going to be a slow and gradual rise but how will that change the way americans buy cars? how will it change the way you finance cars? >> well, i think stepping back is -- as interest rates rise, and if they rise, as you said, moderately, at a steady pace, i think that's good for the

economy because when interest rates rise that means the economy is doing better. so i think we have to look at it from that perspective. clearly as interest rates rise a lot of our customers finance our vehicles so that may raise the cost of those vehicles for a bit but put it into the context of a generally improving economy, a generally improving employment situation and i think that bodes well for the economy and it bodes well for us as an industry and at ford. >> we used to look at industries as very defined industry. we think of auto industry as being guys who make cars, the technology company as being places where they bring new gadgets to the market. but increasingly, those two businesses, technology and the auto industry, are combining and working together. i just wonder how you maneuver that and what we can expect in the car of the future from ford. >> these days as a company we're thinking of ourselves more as a possibility company instead of just a car and truck company. we're seeing technology play a

more and more important role in our business. the technological enablers that are available to us as an industry versus even five years or even two years ago is mind-boggling. and we're viewing that as an opportunity. so when you think of going forward, the vehicle being part of the connected car being part of the interfete and things you think of autonomous vehicles, you think of mobility sharing, new retail approaches using technology, we're looking that the as a huge opportunity to move our company forward and continue to be in the lead in providing those kind of solutions. >> mark, i want to thank you very much for your time today and congratulate you on the new launch. >> thanks, becky. up next, we're on the money. you've got mail. how a monthly subscription of beauty products is reinventing the retail experience and turning a small box into a big success. later, protecting your finances at every age. what to watch out for when it comes to safeguarding the money of your aging relatives. and, by the way, you can find us

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it's a simple idea but it is an original one, a $10 monthly beauty subscription skripgs service. every month, a kit with high end samples is delivered to your door with products if nail polish to beauty and bath supplies and makeup and for $20 there's an offering for men as well. is it more than a trend? does it make money? how does it work.

joining us is katya beecham co-founder of birchbox. thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> so birchbox is an unusual idea. you have a lot of subscribers right now. over 800,000. >> yes. >> so what happens. if you're a subscriber, what do you get? >> we launched over four years ago and it's challenging to find and buy beauty products enthuse many are out there. even more challenging online when you want to touch, try, and experience product before you buy it. so we developed a service that allows you to discover and shop for beauty online by having a subscription that's personalized for you, samples of $10 a month for women, $20 for men. you can try product before you buy them and remember it's personalized. then we pair that with content so you can learn about that product. we e-mail you that content, you can log in and check it out on our site and you can buy everything you've sampled in our online shop. so try, learn, and buy, you can now feel so comfortable shopping

online for your beauty and grooming. >> when you say personalized, does that mean i get to pick what i want to try or does that mean i tell you the types of thing us like and don't like? >> the way it works is you fill out a beauty profile or grooming profile. that helps us understand you. as you get product and rate them and purchase them and engage with birchbox online, it continues to be personalize sod it's kind of always getting more and more adapted to what you're doing and your behavior. also we have an element of choice so every month we have subscribers that are allowed to choose one product in the box or a specific featured box. so if you really want to choose, you can choose, but the idea is it can also be really delight discovery, a surprise that's tailored to you. >> to me it seems even more lucrative and a better tool if i'm somebody trying to get consumers to try new things. if i'm a beauty products company. how do you work with some of those companies? >> that was one of our biggest insights is that beauty brands really want to have meaningful, valuable access to their consumer and they love sampling.

trial is the number one reason people change their behavior in beauty but before that it was done haphazardly, birchbox focuses on using a sample as a customer acquisition tool. we can get the right product in the right person's hands and map their entire behavior. so we know how much money did that sample generate, how valuable is it for you to continue sampling that product to that type of consumer. oh, and if you want that consumer to go deeper into your catalog, what are the right products to use so we become a strategic partner of our brand partners. >> i know you started this as a project after you in harvard business school scored very well. are you profitable? >> definitely not something we talk about openly yet because we're a private company but birchbox has grown very quickly with amazing fundamentals to date and we have decided that we're continuing to invest in growth. so we have had a privileged position of how we've been able to finance the company. >> katya, thank you very much for being here today. >> thank you. >> up next "on the money," a look at the news for the week

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for more on our show and our guests you can go to our web site, otm.cnbc.com. earnings season continues with reports from retail

heavyweights target, staples and best buy. on monday, president obama will be in brisbane australia to attend the g-20 summit. wednesday we'll get october housing starts. also on wednesday the fed releases the minutes from its last meeting. thursday existing home sales for october are out and the computer game changer. thursday also marks the 29th anniversary of the launch of microsoft win dees. coupcoming holiday maybe given you shopping and to do list, how about a checklist for your family's financial health. if you have aging relatives, it could be time to have the talk about managing their money. ted beck is the president and ceo of the national endowment for financial education and, ted, thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> we have the holidays coming up and you have people seeing their relatives. what are the signs they should be looking for as to whether or not their elders can manage their money properly? >> it's a great time to check in. a few things to check from your parents if you're visiting them are they taking longer to make

decisions? are they starting to forget things? ? are they potentially paying a bill twice or forgetting to pay a bill? a big one to watch is mistakes in simple math. if you're in a restaurant, do they take longer time to see if the bill is right or do they struggle to calculate a tip? all good signs that maybe you should have a chat. >> if you do have that chat, if you have to get involved, what are some tips you can give people about what they should be doing? how they can be helpful? >> well, i think as you have the chat, first of all you have to make sure it's a discussion that everybody's receptive to. make sure the people involved, if there's a spouse, they talk to each other. very often we find the couple are not in agreement on what should happen in their financial plan. so first make sure they're discussing things. second, try to get their accounts consolidated. they may be the only ones that know where their assets are so if something happens you may be trying to track down things in every place that ever lived so get it down to as few accounts as possible, use things like automatic bill pais so they don't forget to make payments.

the next thing is make sure the legal stuff is in place, that the wills are current, that they reflect the current wishes of the parents. also that if there's a financial power of attorney to that works in the state theicaly live in. if they had done in the a prior state they might not be as transferable. >> it's a state by state case? >> yes, so make sure if they've relocated it's still effect. the next thing is, and this is a big one, asign roles. if there are several children involved you might have one that's the point on financial decision, the other the point on medical and that the people involved agree to the responsibility. the last thing is if you're thinking about it, you want to make sure you have regular meetings to discuss this, not five minutes before thanksgiving and if you need to maybe have aable if professional, a lawyer, or a financial planner to look at what you're doing say is this the smartest try do it? are you leaving opportunity on the table? >> you touched on the most important question, i think, that's if your parents or your

helders don't want to have this discussion, how do you deal with that? >> i think it's very important to point out that this is their plan, they own it. you're doing this to support them. in no way are you trying to take the keys away. we suggest you start that discussion at age a, first of all, amongst the couple. z lots of stuff happens to you when you're 50 on the medical side, why not do the same thing on the financial side? >> thank you, ted. that's the show for today, i'm becky quick, next week, how to find the best shopping day for the holiday bargains. we're "on the money." have a great one, we'll see you next weekend. . ♪

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