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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 17, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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>> i want whatever that is. >> cheaper prices. >> it's a bullish world with killer robots. thank you for being here. i appreciate it. fast money is coming up in just a few moments. melissa lee what's on tap. >> you know gas prices have been falling, falling, falling, so we have one under the radar, falling gas play. we have the ceo in an exclusive. not going to name names. over to you guys. >> thank you, fast money starts right now. i'm melissa lee. your traders are dan nathan, brian kelly, and guy adami. facebook not suitable for work, maybe not anymore. we have details on facebook's move into your office and whether linkedin could have a fighting chance. the stock closing down more than 4% today. we have someone who says the move is way overdone. he'll explain why. but first to japan and the story that surprised much of wall street today. the third largest economy officially entering recession territory and the news shook the nikkei today but we have been raising red flags on japan here on the show since the bank of
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japan announced an increase in stimulus weeks back. >> the bank of japan stuff, they'll write textbooks about what's going on over there. they have completely lost controls of their markets. their bond markets, equity markets. >> everybody cheered they got a bailout from the fed and within three days they were out of business. so this is japan bailing themselves out. they had no choice. they had to raise taxes. they are now monitizing their debts and buying stocks and etfs it's insane. >> it's been weakening because of doj actions and a bunch of others and it's monetary policy. >> there's a risk the japanese continue down this path and they lose control of the currency. >> clearly the recession is raising a lot of eyebrows but could it actually be seen as great news for u.s. stocks? what now at this point? >> well i think first of all we knew the gdp wasn't going to be good.
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they probably will not raise the taxes this year. >> right. >> which means they'll probably have to weaken the currency and buy more bonds, buy more stocks. they also told us they'll be moving some of their mention fund money over here. what this does is it makes the u.s. on a relative basis look better than japan. so it could bring some flows into the u.s. here. now that assumes that nobody here in the u.s. cares that the third largest economy in the world is actually in recession and probably going to some place worse but apparently so far nobody does. >> well, we do, we do care but it's all relative right? well, compare to the other economies and compared to what the other central banks are doing, the fed here is lifting their pedal off -- their foot off the pedal. >> it's all relative until it's now. yes right now it is all relative. to his point, people, i mean, nikkei was down 3%. that's pretty good given we're at all time highs although jp morgan put out a piece saying europe looks better than the united states.
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it's all relative until people wake up and see that the third largest economy on the planet has totally lost control and there has to be some negative ramifications on the back of that. >> karen. >> that's exactly what i think. i'm afraid of when something spins out of control. you have the unknown variables that the market isn't ready for them. it can really be disruptive. i don't know what they are but i feel like the level of risk scoring position raised. >> here's another one. we talk a lot about oil but crude oil is down in five months. it's telling you something about global demand. when you have some of the largest economies in recession nary environments and we haven't talked about europe or mentioned europe yet here and you see one of the largest risk assets, it's one of the most used commodities on the planet descend the way it has its something going on here and i don't really believe it's just an oversupply issue or the strength of the dollar, it has something to do with demand and we're going to look back at some point in 2015 when these guys are probably right that japan has lost control of what's going on, we don't have qe or the ecb
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feels some sort of reluctance to get in there and do it full stop and we could have crude oil much lower. when you look at that chart there's no support on that chart of crude oil and when you think back to 2008 it went from 148 down to 40. the same reasons it started to climb to 100 are the reasons that people are using right now. >> this is the 4th recession japan has had since 2008. we're about two years into it and no signs over the past two years that it actually had much traction. >> yeah, listen. >> so if you want to stay in the trade what do you do? >> you short the yen. they're either going to print more money or they're going to have to print more money or lose control of the currency and the yen is going to be worthless. that's no brainer trade. we already had a tremendous move in the short yen trade but there's a lot more room to go. >> it's a scary trade but it's the right trade because they have no recourse at this point. they should have preannounced
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this. it's crazy. >> yeah. >> if it was a company they should have preannounced. it's a staggering number down 1.6% given everything that we have seen so i'm convinced that they have lost total control. to b.k.'s point nobody seems to care. they will care when they do care it's going to be very interesting. >> i hate to say it but i think i'm in both of your camps that it's up 20% over the year and it just flat lined here. it seems like the buy too with the action in the dollar. >> and we have minutes coming out on wednesday. so what you'll start to see is potential of them talking about disinflation. so that could be very positive. >> let's bring in dennis, for more on japan and how the trade it. dennis, good to see you. you have a little bit of a conspiracy theorists notion. guy was mentioning the dismal numbers and how they caught everybody off guard because the expectation was so far from what they actually reported. what do you think is really going on here? >> first of all, the miss was so
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large. you just don't miss by almost 4% on one side to the other. it would have been one thing if we were expecting gdp up half a percent and it was announced down half a percent. but we were looking up 2% and you got down 1.6. that is an amazing miss. i have a feeling that's massaged to make certain we had a bad number so that the bank of japan would have absolute cover for continuation of deval yuation o the yen and that abe will be given the right to do away with the tax increase. it shouldn't have been put into effect last year and shouldn't be put into effect next year and i think the gdp number if you want to align yourself with simply a massage number to make sure that abe has clear way not to have to go through with the tax cut. >> i dig it but cover from who?
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who is stopping these guys anyway? it doesn't seem like anybody has their -- it doesn't seem to be anybody in control but them. >> it was amazing to me how many people were applauding the fact that the japanese were showing signs of fiscal rectitude and taking a conservative perspective and it was nonsense. it made no sense. we had people applauding the japanese a year ago for raising the consumption tax in order to try to balance the budget. they were being attacked from various areas. it doesn't make sense. yo i both know that's the stupidest thing they could be doing but they needed coverage to do away with the consumption tax increase. >> it's b.k. what's the end game here. they have debt to gdp, well over 200%. they have recession -- >> 300. >> whatever the number is right they need to pay that off and at some point the market loses faith. do they just continue to monitize debt? what is the end game.
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>> they have no choice. they have to continue the same path they have gone down the last several years. it hasn't worked that well but what else can they do? i grew up in an era when i can remember trading spot dollar yen at 165 yen to the dollar. i remember trading at 250 yen to the dollar. so for me to imagine that you could take the dollar-yen to 150 yen is not that big a move. the trade i think is that under these circumstances you need to be short of the yen against almost anything. sell yen buy japanese stocks, sell yen buy canada but probably more importantly sell yen and buy gold. that's the real trade to look at. gold in yen terms could be dramatically 50% higher 2 years from now because the yen will get so weak. where else do you go. >> i want to send a shout out to gill and adele morgan. some of our greatest fans of this show for years and years.
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get well and god bless you. >> get well guys. thank you dennis. it's amazing because it is how long into this trade in terms of short yen and we're still in it. >> years now but that's how currency mar currency markets work. the other side is what is china going to do now. will they deval their currency as well? that would have global ripples. so i love dennis's trade. short yen long gold. that's going to be a huge winner. >> i look at it from the equity standpoint. where are we going to start to see a lot of pain when you have toyota able to cut prices so much or relative prices. and we haven't really seen that so much. i think that's scary. more to come. >> especially when the auto -- when the likes of a gm for instance under pressure. >> toyota is interesting stock. you have a year where it's going from 99, 101, you have toyota stock on a relatively flat
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nikkei although volatile it flat lined the entire time. so with devaling the yen back to back it's not flat lining on the year which is a warning sign as well. >> let's get to kate rogers at headquarters. >> that's right. gopro moving lower. selling 10.4 million shares. the ceo is selling 4 million of those shares. gopro trading down about 1% back to you. >> kate rogers, thank you. have we heard this before? >> yeah. >> right. gopro selling shares? time and time again. >> that was last week. you would think they would coordinate it all. it's never a good sign to see people inside the companies selling the shares. >> it's never a good sign but the stock was up 3% today. it's only given back half of that now and i'll stay reluctantly bullish in terms of the stock. i think into this holiday season
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you can see crazy things about gopro sales that will take the stock higher. >> i'll make a point that you guys may laugh about but this gives me increased confidence that this ceo and founder has a brain on his shoulders. when you think about it the guy owns 4 million shares at 80 something dollars. the stock ipoed a few months ago here. makes some prudent sense i hi. >> the social network is looking to expand into office space and linkedin shares took a beating today. someone says the company won't be able to stand it's ground against gook. that's next. plus the ceo of a company whose stock is trading inversely with the price of oil and gas. undercover cheap gas play coming up in a cnbc interview. stay tuned. then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence.
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reportedly working on a newer is vase called facebook at work that will go head to head with linkedin and shares of
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linkedin down about 5% on this news. let's bring in martin on the fast line. great to speak with you. >> good to see you. >> i would think that -- i mean, i would think. >> i have positive opinion on both for different reasons but from the facebook side doing something that develops and, you know, encourages work related professional kind of communication and chat and changing ideas. that makes a lot of sense and that is what is behind us and
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they will do. i can't imagine they are going to build all the infrastructure you would need and software development to go after linkedin's core model. facebook is going after advertising technology. that makes sense. linkedin is a big competitive mode in terms of scale. >> when you mentioned what linked in has they're getting these revenues, when you think about facebook and the ad sales force they're selling ads to the same customers in a way. isn't there overlap with sales force to get into some of the fortune 500 companies and undercut linked in on pricing or whatever it is? >> well, you know, there could be. that's a little stretch in a couple of cases because typically facebook and they suffer from the linked in topic doing a great job but they're typically selling to cmos and the company that are sales advertising related.
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linkedin is selling more to the hr person, kind of sitting in the back office if you will looking for people and helping out a different functional set of people. so to do go into a company and say we're already working with you that's great. it's a good overall pitch but it's so removed within the company and the bigger the company, the more so, you know -- it's a stretch to say that would really give them leverage. again they're doing a great job but i don't see this being an area they would put a lot of money in. >> so you don't think -- i was going to ask you if you can't build it buy it but facebook used their stock as currency before. linkedin would be 35 or $40 billion deal. facebook is a $210 billion marketing company. the debt markets are very lucrative. does that make any sense whatsoever? >> well it could. in theory i think one of the things when you think of this from a user standpoint, you know, we always talk about your personal life and you don't want to show your boss the trip to vegas, you know, that notion
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that you have a personal profile and professional profile makes some sense. so from that standpoint if you said facebook owning a company like a linkedin or other asset, although there's nobody of linkedin size and keeping them separate and literally having a wall between them, that could make sense. that would make more sense than to try to build it. i think it's game over already to the extent that linkedany think dominates this corporate employment hr search for the best person kind of business. it's going to be tough for anybody to compete with that now. >> martin, thanks. i appreciate it. the other issue is facebook always had a knock against it for privacy concerns. so at work would employers be worried this data is then going to be sold. >> it so reminds me of the blackberry apple fight years ago where they were totally consumer, enterprise and they were very very separate and each story had it's own stand alone.
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it's very reminiscent of that to me. >> and everybody said blackberry had the security, a lot of people like to use it and now what? all of us here have iphones. >> i still think linkedin is a great story. obviously the stock has performed down today but it's not -- it is expensive on valuation but it is an entity that you can't replicate in my opinion. so i still like linked in. >> yeah, given the choice between those two stocks -- >> would you rather. i would rather between those two i would pick the twitter. >> that's not even an option. >> i made it an option. >> that's a whole other game. >> i kind of did the side car. i still think twitter. twitter is b to b. they have a unique property and are doing a horrible job at telling people what they are. eventually they'll get it right and the stock will do much better. >> facebook, the stock has been underwater since they reported october 28th. i think they filed 180 million
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shares being sold. i think you probably have a trade. year end the stock flat lined here around 74 or 75. at some point you may see the stock back up at 80. >> still ahead, merger monday back with a vengance. plus some of alibaba's biggest rivals. are the flood gates about the open? a deeper dive is coming up next on fast: robot butler, can you shut the shades? oh and could you turn on air conditioning i'm starting to sweat.
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sides of the hexagon. >> it looks like they're headed to the alter. i had to say it really did seem that allergan management was not doing right by their shareholders and at the end of the day they were. this was a bigger deal than they would have gotten elsewhere and kudos to them. it's a very, very large deal. it still leaves players in the musical chairs game. >> they hooked up with each other. >> absolutely. >> what's a love hexagon -- i probably shouldn't ask this question. >> you were there. >> love hexagon. >> there's six players. so there's six sides. next up two of the world's largest oil services fine are hooking up. halliburton going to acquire baker hughes. they expect to close the transaction in the second half of the year and guy you always think well who's next. >> who's next. great album by the way.
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i know you're not familiar with it but when the news came out that the deal was done we said not so fast will cowboy where there's smoke there's fire. here's the fire today. who's next? i don't know. but you know who needs to do something now? general electric has gotten themselves away from all the nonsense they were involved in for years. ge capital isn't a big deal. i think they need to make another one. this might be the catalyst to get them there but off of that last quarter which was very good i think that's still the play here although the move in halliburton today, 80 million shares was huge. >> let's back it up. >> back it up. >> ge, what would they buy? >> i don't know. i mean, there's something -- >> i believe so yeah they have to get back to their knitting. look at ge's stock. we can't do this because i didn't ask for it. but they were the last five years. overlay those two charts. >> look at that. >> magic. >> general electric has been
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magic. honeywell stuck to their knitting. ge has to do something. >> but would ge in this environment, low oil prices would that help their stock. >> if you believe it's not going to stay low for a while. look at that. boy. >> crack staff. >> i don't think ge should do anything. they have underperformed but theydy vetera they divested a lot of businesses. a 3.3% dividend yield this is one down 5% of the year. maybe when the calendar changes investors. >> a catch up trade for 2015 ge? >> i like ge here. i don't know that they have to do something big. i think it's pretty risky to step into the oil patch now in a bigger way. they're there but in a bigger way. >> or maybe it's -- >> maybe it's genius. >> maybe it's poppycock. these guys think it's poppycock. that's the bottom line here. >> there's better ways to play. you are playing a long oil trade
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bet. >> you are. >> next up, a deal that just didn't quite happen between hasbro and dreamworks shows dreamworks plummeting more than 14% after the deal with hasbro is off of the table. a lot of people on wall street were scratching their heads. what's going on here. >> clearly it would have been bad for hasbro. this is the second time that dreamworks has come to the alter and run away. it's a run away bride situation. >> or jilted bride. >> or jilted. so the question is are they asking too much? we know that content provider and that's what is hot right now or is there something else wrong that once these potential suitors get inside they say i'm going to back off. >> does it make dreamworks set up to be like a trade where it's gotten sold off so much, clearly people want them to sell themselves off so they're setting up for something has to happen here.
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>> maybe bit it makes you wonder why are they so desperate to sell themselves? and i'm glad hasbro didn't do this deal. i hate when a company takes a very big change of direction and it introduces all kinds of additional risk. >> there's always another suitor. look at jennifer aniston. someone always comes back knocking on her door. >> you think dreamworks is like jennifer anniston? >> no doubt. >> great anlage. coming up next it's the company logging big games as an undercover gas play. the second largest fuel and convenience retailer in the u.s. they join us live after the break and later dan nathan is pointing out the move in one tech game starting to seriously losing it's momentum and alibaba could be to blame. details ahead.
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comcast business. built for business. still ahead on fast money as oil prices fall we have the ceo of a company that could be an undercover way to play cheap gas. it's a first interview coming up. and the fall of an old tech titan, google shares under
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pressure. what it could mean for the rest of the internet space. and while everyone is watching alibaba one of its rivals is making big moves. you have the trade coming up. >> first prices at the pump with the lowest level since 2010 as gas prices drop for the 53rd straight day. a convenience store company that's been benefitting from low gas prices. that stock is up 20% in the past month as cheaper gases lead to higher margins and up stick in snack sales. joining us on a first cnbc interview is the chairman, ceo and president. great to have you with us. >> thanks. good to be here. >> your obviously benefitting from low gas prices in that people are spending more on merchandise but also because your margins in the most recent quarter were better than expected. can you walk us through how you sell the gas and how you can lock in the bigger margin when prices are falling. >> sure. typically the crude prices on the world markets fall faster
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than prices on the street do. you tend to catch more at the pump for a little bit longer. >> in terms of on the way up i would imagine that you're getting caught on the other side of it. so what sort of signs on the horizon are you watching for to determine that we have hit a trough in gasoline prices? >> we're always looking at the commodity prices and we're going to be in this cheap crude oil environment for a little while to come too. >> let me ask you something, just to play devil's advocate because i do like your story, you do have a concentration in texas and if we start to see a prolonged amount of time and lower and lower gas prices the economy there will get hurt. how do you weigh the differing factors? are you afraid of your texas exposure? >> no, we're certainly not afraid of our texas exposure. we like it. 60% of our current stores are here in texas but we're looking to move across america with this recent acquisition across america we're broadening our
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footprint and acquired stores in upstate new york to offset geographic differences from the economy standpoint. >> when you're taking a look at people saving money in terms of their total gas bill and going into the convenience store side of it what sort of relationship is there? do they spend that savings? is there a percentage that you bank on? how do you model that? >> we would expect to see a little bit of up tick in our inside sales. we get a share of the pocketbook both inside the store and at the puffer. there's more to spend on indulgences and convenience items that we sell in our great stories. >> last week they put out a piece that said the cross america deal profits $1.2 billion, $15 a share. can you comment and if so is she in the ballpark? >> we sure like that report and i think both our shareholders at cst and across america like the deal as well. cross america is up 40% and we're up 20 plus.
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>> we're going to leave it there. great to have you with us. hope you'll come back. >> great, thank you so much. >> the chairman, ceo and president. you first flagged this. >> everybody thinks i'm an idiot which can't be argued but i do think it's a really interesting story and we try to play lower gases and this is so direct sometimes we try with the retailers. this is so direct. that's what makes it interesting to me. >> it's had a tremendous run. it's really difficult. >> new high in today's session. >> i also think there's a little bit to the story where cvs stops selling cigarettes you to go to your local gas station now. b.k. would be a buyer on the pull back. >> really? what do you think? >> i disagree with karen that she's an idiot i'll tell you right now. even though we had the thing at the commercial break. it sounds like a great story. this is a great american company. selling cigarettes to kids. there you go. >> selling cigarettes to those
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of age. let's be clear. >> you know the way i feel about -- no, we shouldn't be advocating smoking for any age. >> we're not advocating. we're not advocating at all. that's it? moving on. >> no, i like -- november 6th wells fargo put out a report. bonnie's the analyst. karen's been spot on the thing. the stock is interesting right here. >> time for pops and drops. tyson foods in the meat space up 6%. >> love the meat space and the investors love the meat space. great earnings here. they are benefitting from higher cow prices. that would be cattle to you and me. usually when a stock is up like this i don't like it. i would buy this one right here. >> pop up 3%. >> all the manage care companies up today, i think it was on the hhs enrollment data looking more positive than expected however i wouldn't chase the space. it's had a tremendous run. >> fwrks m up 2%. >> this is a bit technical.
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it's been trading between 30 and 32. broke out above 32. it's playing a little catch up to ford which just got back up to unchanged on the year. gm is down 20%. there's been a ton of bad news here. i think you use a tight stock. 31.5. >> petrobras down 6%. >> on going investigation is never something you want to hear. tim can talk about this more intelligently than me. >> #. >> #ambassador. you don't want to be chasing this. it's too much negative headline risk right now. >> a pop for video game nerds. a trove of games sold on ebay. 100 games went up with the highest price paid for e.t. considered to be one of the worst video games ever made. the adaptation of the hit 1982 film fetched over $1,500. 7 o 700 will be auctioned off.
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because i know you love atari. >> pong -- you know what we should do, we should go and then go to an arcade afterwards. we'll get a lot of quarters. >> you could play on the radio too. >> i don't know what you're talking about. we have an earnings alert here. urban outfitters is moving. >> melissa, urban outfitters the stock moving lower after the retailer posted weaker than expected third quarter earnings hurt by lower mark ups and higher mark downs. rev new matched expectations. they bought back 3.9 million shares in the quarter and has 6.1 million shares remaining in the current buy back program. they're trading down near over 6%. back to you. >> thank you kate rogers. this huge move for urban outfitters. this is a volatile stock. >> it is and it's an expensive stock. it's not that expensive anymore where it is in the third market but you get a little miss on a
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big multiple you can get a move in the stock. >> it's a thick shooter arcade game release date 1981. it's a sequel. i didn't know that. >> you knew that already. >> what's your point? >> i didn't know that. >> the yankees are a team that plays in the bronx. i mean, what else -- >> so mean. still ahead lockup expirations might hit alabalibab worse thanu think. more fast money straight ahead. wealth management firms in the country... for a team of financial professionals who provide customized solutions... for all of your wealth management and retirement goals, discover how pnc wealth management can help you achieve. visit pnc.com/wealthsolutions to find out more.
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dan is taking a look at google. >> yeah it's been developing. here's a company that should be trading much better than it is. it trades at one times expected earnings and sales growth next year about 18%. so when you think about one of the largest holdings in the nasdaq the performance down 2.5% in the year is very notionable. especially in a market where i see breath waning here and momentum and it's waning here in google. we have two charts. this is a 7 year. what i find interesting is the circle on the bottom left that was in late 2008. that was well before the market. the market bottomed and look at
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that, the red circle in the upper right that was earlier this year. the stock topped out. it's about 11% lower than those levels so here's a stock that doubled the performance of the s&p in that time period from late 2008 to this year and it's really not participating anymore and we have one more chart i want to bring you. this is really over the last couple of years here. it has recently broken the up trend been in place for two years. that up trend with 100% performance and now it's below the 550 support level. the technical set up is not great and it should be trading much better. i know you love it on evaluation basis. this stock should be trading better and we have reasons why. >> are you saying that google is predicting what the s&p will do because that's what it did in 2008. >> i think it could be -- i'm not predicting that whatsoever. the fact that it bottomed out well -- >> so you're not saying it's topping out before the marketing are topping out. >> it has. that is what i'm saying. you want to watch situation where is this has been a market leader for a long time.
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it's not performing well anymore. >> putting words in his mouth. >> i'm asking because he made a comparison to 2008 you got to ask. >> amazon, it overshot. i thought it would get back to 315 nice double bottom. but you're still in a well denine fined down trend. you could sell amazon here with a tight stop. the risk-reward sets up well. >> i think it was the seven year chart up there, the two humps -- >> you're thinking camel. >> not there yet. >> that's a big -- that's a big la leap. >> and if it works out the splat zone is around 450. >> alibaba arrival falling on the earnings report today. things could get worse because the company is facing a lockup expiration in early december that maybe a game changer for the stock. joining us is john, aka, j.j. flash.
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i don't think we need the sound effect with guy here. >> now what was shocking is it was small. >> it's really tiny. in early december these insiders and the management team as well will be able to sell. but if you look at the early investors we're talking about a six fold potential increase in the fold. i don't know if all of these guys are going to sell. i didn't get any real answers of course. they're not going to show their card or hands. some of these guys are way up in their positions. one of the chinese firms is up 100 times it's initial investment. i'm hard pressed to believe they're going to hang on that long. >> it could increase six fold.
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have we seen the order of magnitude increase on potential float. >> well, twitter was big too. it was ugly. there were two lockups of twitter. the bigger one back in may, the stock fell 18% that day but i don't want to make a generalization here because there could be other things going on. facebook the big lockup, the stock actually went up but facebook even sold off really hard it was trading around $20. that was a little bit of a different situation. this is something to be concerned about. you have to dig through the filings. this is not something broadcast by the company. you have to go through there and pull all the stuff out. >> dan would you be worried about this? >> all the smart money has been piling into alibaba. today's move is interesting. i think you have to be careful trading in front of some of these lock understand. we know that companies do a great job of managing these situations especially when you have a move like today on volume. you don't want to go in tomorrow morning and say the stocks are coming for sale. you could have it in your face
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very quickly. >> your article, you also point out that as i said chinese ipos have a smaller float when they go public anyway. so have we seen the sort of pattern where the shared -- they unlock and there's a huge flood coming out? >> yeah, well twitter is the best example of that i think. not a chinese company but i think -- i want to point out in fairness a lot of these are very high growth companies and you could play the devil's advocate here and say maybe people don't want to sell because they it's going to go up more but when you have investors that made 100 times their money there's almost no way they're going to hold on. if you chock up the annualized return the stock would have to do well to keep up with what they have already done. >> i'm not saying all 600 million shares will hit the market but a good chunk of them will. >> thank you for coming by. our thanks to john, otherwise known as j.j. flash. guy adami. >> he's the only person on the network that has his or her own
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theme song. >> not theme song but sound effect i believe so. >> he deserves it. >> the other thing when it traded up to 120 that was concerning and b.k. pointed this out it's worth mentioning again on that day when baba closed lower yahoo! continued to move higher. so yahoo! seems impervious to baba moves. this stock feels like it has a mind of its own right now. >> we have a news alert. kate rogers that has latest. >> that's right. $2.4 billion agreement to buy first wind. they're popping on up around 7%. shares of terraform are down around a third of a%. they're a u.s. based renewable energy company. back to you. >> thank you so much. terraform is the field co. this whole space has been getting crushed even though oil prices have nothing to do with solar they have all fallen along
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with the price of oil. >> they always have. it's just the way -- the sentiment of the space. if oil is higher, alternative energy is worth more and the converse is true as well. >> but you like it. >> i do like it. it was going to be my final trade. remember, i don't want to make it seem like i'm just piling on after the news which i didn't know about. >> which you're doing right now. >> piling on. >> well, you had no knowledge of whether it was your final trade. >> never mind. >> now i'm confused. >> target, target. let's talk target. gearing up for earnings this week. some traders making bearish bets ahead of the report. we have the details next.
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>> target is set to unveil earnings this week. why does some traders think they'll miss the mark? >> wednesday morning they're reporting, you know, really more importantly it's going to be in trade for the holiday season the options market is imlying a 3% one day move in either direction. today when the stock was about 67.50 one trader bought the november -- this friday expiration, 66.5 strike spread. they paid 60 cents for that. that breaks even with a max gain at 63.5 and then you can make up to 240.
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that's four times the premium you spend. when you look at the chart here on a one year basis it has come back here and it's up about 6% on the year. it had this massive 10% move in the last couple of weeks here and it's suggesting that traffic is doing better at target. it's also traded up with walmart that had descent guidance just last week and when you think about an options trade like this into an event you're defining your risk. this trader paid 60 cents for a thousand of these put spreads here and really the scenario is they want the stock in the next few days following the earnings report to be down retracing a good part of this move here. it's just a defined risk. i would say in a market like this where it doesn't make a lot of sense to short any stocks this is a way to make a bearish short-term bet. >> we have been talking for a long time about the falling gas prices and the benefit and you would think that a store like target would benefit because they have that sort of consumer that would be more sensitive.
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>> and walmart as well. >> would you be on the opposite side of this trade? >> probably yes. even though i like dan. >> let me point out about dan. he did a walmart thing at the smart board and he was spot on so bet against dan at your own pearl i say. >> a love fest down there. >> for options action check out our live show at 5:30 p.m. on fridays of course. karen this is for you, are you still long gap? >> yes, we are. gap was in a terrible market. gap sold off a lot on the ceo switch. i think it's descent value. >> guy, how about after the selling? >> 6 million share fall off offering. you have to see how it trades. give it to the end of the week. there's going to be selling at the end of the week. it's scary for me.
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>> is blackberries run over is more to come? >> there's more to come. it's going to be hard to get through 12.5. it flipped on a dime there. i think you're safe. 10 seems to be support. he has done everything that he has said he's going to do. he's turned the company around so you stick with them. >> how long have you been in this trade? >> oh, i have been in this trade for -- >> since when? >> since -- about 8 months. >> since it was 90. >> i would say 8 months or so. >> what's the price -- i'm just wondering why you wouldn't pull the rip chord. >> i have over times. i bought it somewhere in the 7s. when it got up to about 11 i bought some calls, took my profits on that and so down here i would probably do a defined risk and buy calls. probably -- if you want to go real long i think the target on this is 15. so i would, you know, go out six months, 8 months and you can buy
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some $15 -- >> do not buyout of money calls on this thing. >> why not? >> it's been picked over for so many years. whatever the ip people think it's worth no one is willing to pay a multiple for it. >> what do you mean? it's almost doubled in a year. >> i'm saying an inquirer. >> it's been trading not as an acquisition target for awhile now. >> but i don't think there's a future for them and they'll be out of the hardware business and it's a software company. >> coming up on mad money last week cramer weighed in on one of wall street's most controversial stocks. tonight he's getting the ceo side of the story. don't miss that top of the hour.
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>> final trade time dan. >> taking profits on google. >> you know, you can buy gold but you don't have to buy it in other currencies. gdx that's how you get the fiscal in this viemplt. >> even though it's going to be up on this deal i still like sunedison. vince ferrell he passed away today.
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condolences. general electrics not for the reason we said but the stock is cheap. >> thank you so much for watching. see you back here tomorrow. meantime mad money with jim cramer starts right now. i'm here too to level the playing field for all investors. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money" welcome to cramerica. people want to make friend, i'm trying to make you money. i'm trying to educate and teach you, call me of tweet me at jim cramer. we keep confusing things. we keep thinking what is

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