a very warm welcome to "worldwide exchange." >> concerns over global growth weigh on markets. chinese, german and french business activity comes in below expectations. the overall number for the eurozone is hitting markets now. record highs hit 2014 high despite concerns that the economy slowed in the third quarter. investors cheer surprise dividends, the company posted

stronger than expected set of results. >> this is a reminder for us that we really came in with a income of 195 million euro and for the first time can intend to pay a dividend to our shareholders. banks are quoting catastrophic risk. according to a senate report which says goldman sachs, jpmorgan and morgan stanley manipulated prices. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. welcome to the show. the eurozone numbers just came in at 50.4 for november. it was expected at 50.8.

the previous reading was 50.6. the composite number came out at 51.4 had. it was expected at 52.2. the previous reading was 52.1. >> and we should point out that the eurozone purchasing manager index for services came in at 52.3. that was in line with expectations. expectation was 52.3. lower than expected pmi data come out, but the services number coming in with expectations. >> euro/dollar, down 0.25% on the day. it was a little bit off the french reading, fell off the german reading. going to bring in james ashley, chief economist at rbc capital markets. james, after last week, we had gdp data which just showed the eurozone and growth. pmi data so far this morning is just more than we expected and perhaps suggest that we won't be

able to stay in that growth environment for much longer. let's take a step back from the small movements up, small movements down. the big picture is the euro area is stuck in a rut where growth is going to be weak for a period of time. ordinarily, if you told me the composite slipped by less than 1 point, i would not get too concerned. this time, actually, it is more significant. we've been in this range with the composite index of 52 to 54 for pretty much a year now so we've now fallen below that. that's the sign the economy hasn't going much going on. there is going to be in that small, positive range for a period of time. there's no escaped philosophy picking up right now. >> so does this data confirm the case for mario draghi to unveil full blown quantitative easing? >> i don't think so. i think if the ecb takes further

measures, i think the first step will be to expand purchases into a wider range of private sector assets, starting with corporate bonds, most likely. qe, as in purchase of sovereign debt, i think is a new cure option that we will only do if they are badly falling off at the moment. it's not catastrophic. i think that is what we need to go back to before doing full below qe. >> weak growth, jupositive, certainly uninspiring. the one thing that is very clear is the divergence from the different countries. it makes it very hard for mario draghi to know what is the best thing to do. >> it really does. look at last year's gdp number. it's very important to recognize it, but are these divergentsies,

both in cyclical and structural fundamentals and that makes the ecb's job that much more complicated. they have a fundamentally broken monetary transmission mechanism and the policies that might be right are completely different than those that might be right for, say, italy. that has proven very, very difficult for them. >> james ashley, chief economist at rbk capital markets, thank you very much. china's manufacturing pmi hit a six-month low. the final reading came in at 50, missing analyst expectations. let's check in on markets in asia. sri jegarajah is standing by in singapore. good afternoon, sri. >> good morning, good afternoon, wilfred. the china data did foul the mood in the broader asian markets. let's take a look at those pmi markets. the private forecast has a bit more detail. we're seeing right on the break even line for factory activity

in november at 50. so the big question is whether this number, which is the preliminary number, will be revised in future months, i.e. december, and what the official data says, as well. if validation from beijing's numbers, which is due in about a week 1/2's time, that would be a reason to probably sell down the equities markets further in this region. i think b we'll talk about the subindices. the devil in this number is always in the detail. they didn't look good. factory output full to 49.5. the labor market is looking weak, as well. employment shrank last month. remember, social stability and keeping people employed, of course, in china is a key policy for beijing. and it's likely we will see some further labor market

deterioration as we head into 2015. the property market does remain the weak link, as well, in the broader chinese economy. the risks seem to be weighted towards the downside as we head into 2015. a degree of composure in the markets, though. but they're not going to throw the kitchen sink into the economy. it's going to be very value for speak of stoking asset price bubbles. back to you in london. >> thank you very much, sri. alcoa, m&a has been an active discussion this year. alcoa completing the previously announced acquisition after receiving all regulatory approvals for the deal. alcoa announced revenue in 2016 rising by $2 billion. it sees its current production book for 2015 delivery rates. alcoa down just about 2% in

yesterday's trade, but up about 6% over the past month. we're going to keep an eye on alcoa. wilfred, over to you. >> european markets yesterday was flight to slightly down. we've weakened a little bit as the session has gone through as those pmi numbers came out. france, slightly better than last month, but still below 50 which was disappointing and germany slightly weaker than expected. all in all, the stoxx 600 is down 0.4% today. the stoxx 50 is down more, down 0.7%. so those weaker pmi data affecting continental markets more than pan european markets. let's look at the individual markets now. down 0.4%.

germany, down the better part of 0.5%. france down 0.7%. its composite pmi was 48.4, so still showing contraction in that sector. italy down 11.2%. we're going to dive in and focus a little bit on russia now. let's look at ruble. the ruble has picked up a little bit today. up 0.5%. still down over 40% year-to-date. why has it moved today? well, there's some tax changes that happened at the end of the month, meaning exporters have to sell some of their foreign currency. that's why we've seen a little bit of a move today. but, of course, this big move over the last month seeing significant -- in the ruble has allowed the micex cross below 50 earlier and this is now heading for an all-time high for the year. most of that rally, it's up for

the year, but this rally has been correlated with the fall in the ruble. that is an all-time high for the micex this year. the u.s. bond, 2.33%. it has a little pick up yesterday off the fed memberships, but nothing too ground breaking, so no significant moves in the bond yield, 2.33%. the german ten-year, which flirted below 0.8% earlier in the week, as well as 0.7% earlier in the week, back above that level and the ten-year in the uk, 2.1%. we're going to have a quick look at forex, first of all. the euro is off 0.34%. of course, there's weak pmi data coming out, 1.2511. the u.s. dollar against the yen,

another 0.6% has crossed through the 118 handle, which is a fresh seven-year low for the yen. everyone is looking at that 1.20 handle. and the aussie/dollar is weaker again. it fell another 0.5% today. iron ore prices hitting another low off the back of that pmi data out of china. >> wilfred, you were just talking about the russian micex hitting record highs. vtb down 0.25% coming in for the quarter. net interest income up 9.8%. its q3 long provision rising, therefore, three fold to 65 billion rubles. again, that's vtb bank reporting its net profit down 88%. the stock has been in focus today.

>> bbva has been suspended trading. we're going to get you more flashes on that again. it's resumed trade. it's down 4.5%. it had been suspended after a rights issue to fund the purchase of turkey's scaranti. >> a lot of big news and a lot of stocks in action. we will continue to get you the latest on those names throughout the income hour. coming up on the show, america is getting ready to shop till it drops. one sxert tells us who will be this season's big winners. going for gold or not. the future of the central bank goeltd reserves. and we tell you how you could earn a little extra pocket money if you don't mind braving the cold with a trip to new york.

minutes from the fomc brought mixed reaction. steve liesman has the details. >> within minutes of the release of the fomc minutes, stocks shot higher. minutes later, they shot lower. that adds to the increased confusi confusion. showing the central bank has much work to do to figure out how to talk with markets about the path ahead. according to the minutes the fed discussed, the path of future rate hikes and how to communicate those rate hikes to markets. but it discussed rate hikes being too low. and it worried about global economic weakness. factories that will lead markets to put off the timing of rate hikes. i think they're strugglie ining the gap between what the market

expects and what the fun affects. that's something they won't be able to address. clearly, they're saying it depends on the data and the more they say that, the more the market expects different things. >> that gap is in the markets and where the fed thinks they'll be. the market continues to believe in lower rates than the central bankers, a gap that puzzles market participants as well as fed officials. >> i think it's going to be very hard for the fed to raise interest rates, as much as they would like to find a reason and the ability to do so. i think rates are going to stay in the same very, very low level through at least the balance of '16 and i don't see a way where they can start to raise short rates. most economists disagree and think we'll see a rate hike summer next year. but judged by these minutes, be forgiven for overlooking the fed

policy. back to you guys. so what sense should you make out of those fed minutes? james, i empathize with the fed. it doesn't seem like they would raise rates once we see a pick up in wage inflation. >> there's a time of external headwinds. we don't know was going on in europe, what's going on in china. the fed is trying the forecast in a difficult economic environment. at the same time, even if it's forecasting abilities were perfe perfect, it has to manage market expectations. we've seen that the market is, to some extent, hooked on the fed's kool-aid. they have to prepare the ground cautiously. they have to clearly signal well in advance that changes are coming. and i think that to me is the key message from yesterday's set

of minutes. there is a change coming. it's probably going to be a small change, but in the december meeting, we're probably going to see that key phrase, the considerable time phrase. everybody is focused on that and we move to a more data dependent level. i think yesterday was the warning that we should start to prepare for the first teptive step in tightening. >> and the one thing we can gleam from yesterday is at some point, everyone expects rates will go up. if it is data dependent, there's nothing to worry about with markets because we'll only get that rate rise when it's relief warranted. >> i think so. but i think a lot of people have become fixated on the fed. for some, it's going to be early next year. for some, it's not until early 2016. so you get these big moves. our view at rbc is the most likely point in time for the first hike is june of next year. this was our view before yesterday's minutes, it remains

our view today. on the basis of what we expect to happen in the data, that's a plausible explanation. but let's be clear, if the data supply substantially in one direction or the other, then, of course, we would have to change our forecast because the fed is data dependent. and the reaction will change depending on those data. >> so the u.s. is showing signs of growth, a resilient economy, if you will, given the recent data on consumer sales, sentiment, yet the market doesn't seem to be pricing in a rate hike. >> absolutely. >> why is that disconnect there? >> i think that's a mistake. we go back to what we said about the market being hooked on the fed's kool-aid. there's a disconnect because they haven't accept at some point we're going to go back to a more normal period. rates, when they do hike, will go up very, very gradually and a neutral interest rate is probably going to be

substantially lower than it was precrisis. but we are ultimately going with the world where this is not a normal sort of interest rate in line now. rates are going to move higher. >> it's a great debate and something that, of course, we continue to wait for some type of indication on when we will see that rate hike. james ashley, we're going to leave it there, chief economist at rbc capital markets. now, let's have some news on earnings so far today. ccg shares getting a big boost after the group rejected a takeover offer from ierp's largest oil and gas engineers. 18% in the green for cgg. technip is down 557% on the news. stephane has more from paris. >> good morning. the oil services group has made an offer to buy cgg specialized in natural resources expiration.

technip is offering a significant premium, a bit more than 25% compared to the closing price yesterday. in a statement this morning, technip says the combination of the two countries would create a unique value proposition in the country across the entire production system. but despite that, cgg has rejected the offer and said the solutions to pursue the negotiations with technip are not met. according to media reports, cgg is now continuing to put itself up for sales after -- the offer from technip. cgg is under pressure. the company posted recently a loss for the third quarter that was the second -- for the company is suffering from the weaker oil price and also from the cautious attitude and that also is linked to the weaker

price of oil. market reaction, shares up more than 25%, almost in line with the offer from technip. it's now up 18% while technip, which made the offer, is down 6%, the biggest on the french market. over to you. >> stephane, thank you very much. thyssenkrupp has confirmed it was paying dividends a year earlier than expected after reporting its first full year profit in years. speaking first to this, the company's ceo said it is working despite conditions. we are quite convinced the gdp in china will remain at 7% or near 7%. i think markets, where we clearly have very slow moving decreasing moments is on one

hand in america. i think in europe, our outlook is that it will remain flat. >> investec is flat, 14% rise in first half earnings as the south african bank benefited from a bank in bad loeps. the group errored a fall in assets under management. we will be speaking to the ceostephen koffer. russia's raiff bank is down 2.87%. the second biggest lender in eastern europe says they are seeing little direct impact from the most recent sanctions. now, vtb, russia's bank, has posted a staggering 98% year on year drop in third quarter profits.

earnings came in at less than half a billion rubles below analyst expectations as the lender saw provisions rise three fold in the period. it's up 11% over one month. during today's trade, it is basically flat. wilfred, jet blue was following in the footsteps of its larger rivals, carrying back customer perks to put a focus on profit. the carrier is now planning to boost seat capacity in its a-320 planes by 10%, effectively shrinking leg room. the airline will introduce baggage fees for certain fare options. we want to hear from you b what's your number one complain about flying? if you want to join the conversation here, get in touch with us. e-mail us, worldwide@cnbc.com. @cnbcwex. i would have to say my number one complaint is having to pay

for in-house entertainment. i think that should be free. you should allow your customer toes partake in movies, tv, whatever you want to watch. you shouldn't have to charge your viewer for that. >> i didn't even know that you did get charged for that. >> really? >> absolutely. >> i do agree. i don't like to pay for food on board and leg room is often an issue for me. >> how tall are you again? >> 6'5". but i don't want to go through a long list of complaints. i do find flying is a treat, even though we do it much more regularly than the days when it was glamorous. i still enjoy it. small seats, paying for feet and losing your luggage has to be the most frustrating. >> jetblue is looking to cut costs. i wonder if this will essentially price out the lower end customer. that's something that we'll have to watch for. still to come on the show, will target be the comeback kid

among u.s. retailers this christmas? we will discuss after this break.

concerns over global growth

weigh on markets. the french pmi lingering in contraction. but the russian market hits the highest level of the year, despite expectations that the economy slowed in the third quarter and one of the country's biggest lenders posting a whooping 98% drop in profits. investors cheer thyssenkrupp's surprise dividend as the company posts a forecast beating results. it's the first annual net profit in four years is a huge success. >> this is a reminder for us that we came in with the income at 195 million euro and for the first time can intend to pay a dividend to our shareholders. banks are quoting catastrophic risks according to a senate report which says jpmorgan stanley and gold man sax exploited the equity markets and manipulated prices.

>> the retail sales number out has increased for the month of october, so some good news on the retail sales front. take a look at the sterling/dollar, not seeing much of a reaction to that trade right now. trading flat at 1.5678. and reuters is reporting that pick up in retail sales has been driven by purchases of furniture after the country's housing market picks up speed earlier this year. as you can see there, sterling is up, flat on the day, but it has rallied off the back of that data, and as you can see, it's at 1.5674. >> that pick up of furniture has to do with the recovery in the uk housing market. interestingly enough, furniture playing a big role in this month's retail sales number. talking about retail -- >> i was just going to say, the yearly number plus 4.3%. the monthly number up 0.8%

against expectations of 0.3%. seema. let's move on to retail. uk retail sales number better than expected. what about what's happening in the u.s.? a big mover has been target. shares jumping more than 7% yesterday after posting stronger than expected third quarter earnings. the retailer is showing signs of recovery. courtney reagan spoke to target's new ceo, brian cornell, following the earnings call she filed this report. >> so far, so good for target, under the first 99 days with the new ceo brian cornell. the big box retailer reporting quarterly rise in sales. with november sales so far trending above expectation. but with black friday next week, cornell is staying conservative when it comes to his outlook for the all-important holiday season. >> we're eight days away from the big day, but really starts the holiday season. and we're going to have to see

how the consumer, the shopper and our guests react. so we're optimistic. our team is fired up about the holidays. but i think we have to be cautious now. it's really early. >> the holiday season will be critically important. the retailer classifies performance so far as unacceptab unacceptable. >> it now, we're very focused on improving performance in canada. but i will tell you, we're not happy with performance. we weren't happy with the third quarter. we have to improve our performance store by store. >> target says surveys indicate consumers have move on from massive data breach announced 11 months ago. the retailer is still tallying the costs at $158 million. the key to target's success is bringing back the target cache of years past. for cornell, that means meeting the customer both in store and online. diligence about creating great products at price points

cautious consumers want. i'm courtney reagan in minneapolis. and, you know, this definitely came as a surprise, better than expected report from target. it looks like they have been able to slowly regain the confidence of consumers after that massive data breach that did weigh on sentiment and sales over on the past years. target up just 3w7%, wilfred. >> a very big move. interesting, which we'll be discussing a lot more as we go on, is where exactly the strength in earnings in the retail sector has come from. which pocket is it coming through from? >> we have the holiday shopping season and the lower gas prices. how does that impact consumer sentiment? something we're continuing to watch out for. another mover in focus today is l brands. and the clothing retailer is

raising its full year outlook. lbrands raised third quarter guidance earlier this mop. taking a look at shares and how they are trading right now -- you're looking at the victoria secret fagdz show. up about 31% over the past few months. i feel like you have a comment here. >> i thought it was more indicative of what we can expect from the company going forward. >> i believe a victoria secret fashion show is coming to london this year, which is quite exciting. >> i wouldn't know about that. we'll see. retail earnings, expect big numbers from best buy where analyst will focus on its ability to compete with amazon. discount retailer dollar tree reports on friday. it's foot locker's turn which, by the way, is citigroup's top

pick this holiday season. it is. still to come, a price for retailers that could squeeze margins this christmas. that's according to stacey weidliss. she joins us with more in about one hour. taking a look at european markets and how they're responding to data we got out this morning, pmi data has been mixed thursday far and markets are equity arresting negatively to those numbers. the xetra dax did come in lower than expected, trading down by around 0.5% in today's trade and losses in italy and france, as well. taking a look at the euro stoxx, it's trading in negative territory. right now, close to session lows, down just about 1% on the day. let's have a look at bonds. there's a bit of a yield compression earlier in the week. the u.s. ten-year is back to its range bound areas, between 2.3% and 2.4%.

let's look at forex. crossed through the 11 8 handle. people now looking at the 120 ham for dollar/yen. the euro has weak nded about 0.3% on that disappointing pmi data. and the aussie/dollar is down following yesterday's 1% decline. moving on, a swiss popular initiative to boost the company's gold reserves have lost support. the swiss national hank will keep at least 20% of its holdings in pressure metals. only 38% would say yes to gold. that is significantly lower than a survey released last month. the news is weighing on the

price of gold, although not today, which has bounced back at 0.5% but is down 8% over the last three months. and the swiss franc is trading lower today. the dollar has strengthened 0.3% against it in today's trade. >> a vote due on november 30th, more than 50% voting in favor of gold being -- of the 20% reserves of gold in the central bank of switzerland. interestingly enough, people are saying this will impact the price of gold. >> absolutely. you're getting the population wanting to restrict a central bank's ability to control its monetary policy and its currency. i'm not that surprise. as we get closer to the vote, public opinion seems to move away from than the economics and sensible. >> we had the scottish

referendum and now the gold referendum. >> exactly, on very, very different subjects. moving on, stronger than expected exports offer a reason to he cheer in japan. we have the story live from tokyo. >> thank you, wilfred. experts rose for the second straight month in october, increasing nearly 10% on the year, which was over twice as big as economists were expecting. shipments to asia accounted for more than half the total. experts in the u.s. and western europe, which account for about 30% of the total also expanded. meanwhile, imports grew by 2.7%. weaker oil prices appear to have helped keep the figures down, despite rising import costs due to the tightening yen. although that marks the 28th consecutive month in the red, the deficit shrank by more than 35% compared to last october. the expert recovery is an

encouraging sign for the economy, since consumer spending, which accounts for 60% of gdp, has been weak. and the dismal july to september gdp figure came as a shock to everyone. but the index is predicting future economic conditions such as those for machinery orders have been upbeat. hopefully, sole lid growth demand will put the japanese economy back on the growth trajectory. >> as ever, thank you very much. still to come on the show, low interest rates have boosted infrastructure spending, but where do we go from here as central banks get set to nrmallize rates? we discuss after the break.

welcome back. let's talk russia. the ruble, as you can see, has strengthened 0.3% today, partly because of tax bills that exporters have to settle at the end of each month. so we've seen a strengthening of the ruble the today. as you can see, the trend has been very much weakening ruble hes. the weaker move in the ruble in recent weeks has allowed the micex to rally to all-time highs for the year. it has been a volatile year. but as you can see, it's now up 1.7% for the year.

it crossed through the 1530 mark earlier in trade which is seen as quite an important mark. but it's dipped back below that for the last half an hour or so. now, this is coming as moscow is expected to confirm growth of 0.7% year-to-date. simon, we're getting that contermation print in russian gdp later today. but i suppose the ruble has been more in focus recently. president putin continues to say the only reason it's been soft in recent week is because of speculation. that's not really fair, though, is it? >> i think there are a number of factors that have driven the ruble. first of all, the previous central bank policy where you had the band moving automatically every time the central bank would intervene with $350 million. a couple of weeks ago, that's what caused the move. the second thing is the real corporate sector and banking

sector looking for dollars to pay for external debt payments. on average, we could see the corporate and banking sector needs about $10 billion every month, which translates into about $500 million a day. so parts of the 2.5 billion that the central bank was intervening with before it changed its policy was about $500 to $1 million. households buying dollars again as we saw in q1 of this year. and the rest, if you like, you can call inverted commerce speculation money. it's calmed down. >> simon, the micex has hit an all-time high of the year. >> it's ruble depreciation, which is good for exports. but everything that's denominated in ruble is increased. in other words, inflation, the government revenues, or whether it's the micex. if you look at the micex in

dollar base, obviously, the picture looks very different. >> another market that has been in focus over the past week is turkey. the turkish central bank will deliver its rate decision later after holding pat on policy for the last two months. we'll be improving inflation outlook see the central bank improving today? hadley is joining us in studio. it's interesting to look at the turkish economy right now, hadl hadley, because inflation has been a major issue. it's come down just a bit and there's still talk, though, that with the central bank decision, we might actually see rates come down. >> i think they probably shouldn't do it, but it will be difficult for them to resist, given the fact that this is an economy that is highly po lit sized. you have to remember, his popularity is based on the fact that we've had ten years of growth in turkey.

all of these questions have been raised and it's possible you'll see a rate cut today. >> does that mean particularly on these issues, is he stepping back from getting involved in those decisions? >> it's interesting because the rhetoric from the presidency compared to when he was prime minister has been dropped, so there haven't been too much comments. the new prime minister did mention a couple of things, but he also did mention clearly that the governor of the central bank is a very good friend of his. the outlook for consumer price index is looking very good. the current account deficit is coming down. the most from all this drop in

oil prices. you see the central bank cutting justifiably, its overnight lending points. >> i was just going to ask you about that. energy price ves dropped. that should be good news for turkey since oil and nat gas account for about 60% of its energy supply. is that going to be a catalyst for the economy going forward? >> definitely. as you say, 9 0% of its energy requirements are imported from abroad. that is a strong positive. we were looking for growth about 4% next year, public sector debt to gdp is down all the way to almost 30% which is amazing, given ten years ago it was about 100%. so we're done all the right policy moves. i wouldn't be surprise to see a rate cut today and not react too negatively to it.

>> perhaps more important is geopolitics on its border. >> absolutely. their second largest export market was iraq and that's been taken out by what we've seen in terms of if and the spread of islamic terrorists in the region. also, if you look at the banking sector in turkey, and we're talking about that politization of the banking sector, several of these banks have come under a great deal of fire for being -- well, for being close. there are always politics involved when we're talking about financial sector in turkey. >> and we've been looking at the turkish lira declining. do you think with the central bank decision we'll see comments around the currency and on ways to strengthen the currency going forward? you might. this is something they're incredibly concerned about. this is a decision that they

have pretty consistently. >> simon, are you long on the turkish market? >> we're overweight turkish lira, absolutely. geopolitics is a very important thing, but i think that's the most important thing, geopolitics in the eastern ukraine. we need to see a solution from that side. once that solution is found, we'll start to see solutions to other issues like middle east, isis, those type of things. >> simon, thank you very much. also thanks to hadley, as ever, for joining us. the central bank is still on track for a rate hike next year despite experience for global politics. >> now, investers have been taken advantage of the low interest rate environment to increase spending on infrastructure and real estate. msgi is launching its first ever global infrastructure today.

there is more about this index. it's based on 102 infrastructure projects worldwide. ta doesn't sound like a huge index starting point. >> sure. it's 130 assets, it's important to know this is on the individual assets of the airport, toll roads around the world. the infrastructure market is massive and we know this huge need for new infrastructure, 50 to 70 trillion dollars of new infrastructure. but the private market, the ownership of these private assets is quite small. probably only 500 billion or so globally. so we're about 10% of the market. so it's a good measure of the performance of this unlifted, this private market. >> how do you do the measurement? >> it's the appraised value from one period to the next and the cash flows in between. we do that on a quarterly basis.

we take the individual assets and aggravates that up. we can aggregate up to get a measure of the market performance. >> and are there investors out there who want to learn more about this index, what are you covering in this index? >> all of those types of infrastructure globally. >> what about india, as well? >> one of his top privates as the newly elected prime minister. >> absolutely. and it is one of the dynamics i think for those gooft wanting private infrastructure investment. generally, they want greenfield investments in emerging markets, but emerging markets well regulated and there tends to be a bit of a mismatch.

>> private investment into the sector, the percentage of the total. >> 20% of overall assets. infrastructure is tiny. it's 1% of the total. the rest is private equity, real estate, hedge funds. in australia and canada, it's about 7% to 8%. the total is in infrastructure. we see a lot of investors on the sideline. how does it fit in the portfolio? >> clearly a big opportunity given the low rate environment. what do you think is the biggest risk in infrastructure? red tape stops a lot of corporations from building out

power plants as well as water mills. >> sure. the regulatory rimp risks, the cash flows that will come. i think there's a broader macro risk about the asset class as a whole. it's only 1% of the total. we've had strong growth over the last five years, but we need more splice for that capital. >> very interesting. we're going to leave it there. peter hobbs. thank you for your time. moving on, president obama will outline his plans for immigration tonight in a speech at 8:00 p.m. eastern time. it would make immigrants eligible for work permits, but not government benefits such as health care tax credits. the latest "wall street journal" poll finds while a majority of the americans share the

president's goal on immigration, only about a third approve him taking action without approval. >> interestingly enough, only p 25% believe americans are headed in the right direction. more than half of people would prefer congress versus the white house to take the lead in steading u.s. policy. >> all the negativity we've had from president obama, 42% isn't too bad, given after the midterms how much he was blamed. 44% isn't as bad as you might expect. >> given immigration is going to be one of his top agenda items, how will that change his rating? that will be something that we'll have to watch. and in other news, as we've been telling you, jetblue is following in the footsteps of its larger rivals, putting a focus on profits. the carrier, which one staked its reputation on putting the customer first is now planning to boost seat capacity in its

a-320 planes by 10%, effectively shrinking leg room, not good for people who are extremely tall like wilfred. the airline will introduce baggage fees for certain fare options. we've been asking what is your number one complaint about flying? richard tweeted in, i dislike small seats. i always manage to sit next to a larger person or body builder. another tweet, having to pull money in to use the toilet. i had no idea that they charged for using the rest room. >> i know ryan air talked about bringing that in, but i don't think they did bring that in. that is outrageous. >> that could be bad for your health. >> it could be very unpleasant, indeed, especially if someone is short changed. now, talking of toilets, you may or may not know that yesterday was world toilet day.

i did want know that. well, in new dehli, a cake was made to talk about awareness around the country. that is one bowl many had no problem licking clean. it was aflush with chocolate. >> just to let you know, on a serious note, prime minister modi has made toilets before temples his main campaign slogan because there is a shortage of toilets in india. and china's pmi report weighs on uk listed miners. we dig down into the numbers after the break.

welcome to "worldwide exchange" 37 i'm seema mody. >> and i'm wilfred frost. >> the fed minutes fail to give clarity on a rate hike. >> the russian market hits the highest of year, despite expectations the economy slowed in the first quarter. and one of the biggest companies posted a drop in profit. big banks under fire.

goldman sachs and jpmorgan have over the commodities market. president obama set to take action on immigration. that's his go alone strategy risk backlash among republicans. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. and a lock of clarity on when the fed will, in fact, raise rates. that's why you didn't see any big moves in the markets yesterday. the u.s. market trading in range. i like steve liesman's analogy of yesterday's fed meeting minutes. he said a pilot is on the tarmac ready to take off, but there's a lot of clouds on the horizon and that's stopping the fed from, in fact, raising rates. >> i was surprised markets didn't react more positively. perhaps the overall tone was more dovish than the comments after the last meeting.

but in general, what have we seen since then? we've seen qe has been removed and markets have done already and the outlook is relatively positive. i thought that would get markets to move up more than they did. >> i think there's a lack of clarity on when that will happen. let's take a look at premarket trade to see how investors are positioning themselves today. right now, arrows pointing to the downside. we had the dow jones industrial trading down at 51 points. it seems like the economic data out of china as well as the eurozone perhaps weighing on investor sentiment. take a look at the cnbc ftse 300. we are looking at this index lower by around 11 points or a little bit off of our session lows, though, of the day. diving into the european markets, which have been a focal point for investors given the

better than expected data we've been getting. but today, pmi data coming in more than expected. even though we saw uk retail sales coming in at 0.8%. >> about 6% over the past month, but investors reacting to today's pmi data. france, italy in negative territory. wilfred. >> seema, exactly. so markets weakened throughout the day's trade so far in europe. let's see what that means for bond yields. it hasn't meant very much as it hasn't done for the last couple of trading sessions. the u.s. ten-year, 2.33%. we did flirt with the yield compression earlier this week, but we've come back to where we've been for the most of november, which is range bound between 2.3% .2.4% in the u.s. having dipped below that earlier

in the week. >> the euro, 1.2523 on the back of that weaker than expected pmi data out of the euro swoen. the yen has hit a fresh seven-year low. 118.45 and now people are looking for the 1.20 handle. will it push beyond that? the aussie/dollar is off 0.26%. iron ore hit a five-year low and that hit on the mining in australia. the russian rouble has strengthened 0.3% today. that's a little bit of an anomaly. there's some tax moves that happen at the end of the month every month in russia. in general, the move significantly up to the upside. that weakening ruble that we've seen in the last few months has allowed the micex to push through to its highest level of

the year. it is up 0.75%. as you can see. up 1.6% over the course of the year, but has had a strong run in recent weeks off the back of that weaker ruble. we are just getting flashes right now out of the u.n. the u.n. has said at least 4,317 are dead and 9,921 wounded in eastern ukraine conflict so far. they're saying that fighting in eastern ukraine has killed 13 people each day since the start of the conflict. nonetheless, the russian index, as i say, up 0.75% hitting all-time highs for the year. china's november manufacturing pmi coming in lower than expected. for more on that, let's get updates on asian markets from sri jegarajah standing by in singapore. >> thank you, wilfred. the china pmi forecasters in a sour mood in the indices in this

part of the world. and you said the hm was at a six-month low. you're quite right. we're just at the break even point at 50. remember, these numbers are subject to revision and that we also are looking for confirmation from the official figures from beijing, due in about 1 1/2 week's time. what you can extrapolate is domestic demand does remain sluggish in the world's second largest economy. and this is an economy that still needs stimulus to consolidate growth. you're not going to see any aggressive easing from the pboc.

kwels saw the aussie/dollar decline on this, as well. >> sri, thank you very much. we're bringing in gina santos. thank you for joining us in studio. do you think markets are overly negative around the china data that's been coming out over the past couple of months? at the end of the day, china is still north of 7%, more than double what the u.s. is growing at right now. >> you are slightly correct. i think in the equity markets, the equity markets became overly negative, considering they're still in something on decent earnings. i think the slowdown in china, however, i think a lot of that negativity has to do with repercussions on the rest of the globe, the commodity markets and other equity markets. i do think that's more of a follow on, but it's being lumped into the chinese equity market, which probably doesn't deserve quite the beating it had. >> the yen hit a fresh seven-year low today. is that going to impact china? >> you know, right now, i think

it feels like a race to the bottom in terms of currencies because the dollar is getting so strong, generally speaking. i would say that that will have an impact on china, certainly, for regional trade. >> and you say despite a relative attraction towards china, that the u.s. equities are the only game in town. it seems a little bias back to me. justify that. >> my point there is simply that we're seeing weakness externally outside of the u.s. and it's making the u.s. looking, a, more attractive but also using the fed a buy to keep rates lower for longer. there is potential stimulus and lowering rates elsewhere in europe and is japan. that actually keeps an interest rate on. it makes that the only asset you

can buy even if it's not a great asset. >> would you say u.s. stocks, domesticate names or just the u.s. in general? >> i think u.s. in general. at some point, the external names will be hurt by the strong dollar. we're not seeing that yet. >> we're supposed to hit earnings this quarter, but it looks like that will come together in the next quarter. >> right. >> a big factor from the minutes is the minutes from the fomc's october meeting. still undecided on when to exactly hike rates. they did all agree on the need to end quantitative easing. cnbc's steve liesman has the details. >> within minutes of the release of the minutes of the fed's october meeting, stocks shot higher. minutes later, they shot lower. that kind of volatility is perhaps emblem attic over increasing confusion over the outlook for interest rates, the economy and fed policy. showing the central bank has much work to do to figure out how to talk with markets about the path ahead.

according to the minutes the fed discussed, the path of future rate hikes and how to communicate those rate hikes to markets. but it also discussed inflation being too low and concern it won't hit its 2% inflation cut for quite some time. it and worried about global economic weakness, factors that will lead markets to put off the timing of rate hikes. >> i think they're struggling between the gap between what the market expects and what they expect and that no one knows between now and then. that's something that they won't be able to address because they're saying it depends on the data. the more they say that, the more the market expects different things. >> that gap is between when believers think they will be in years and where the fed thinks they will be. it is a gap that puzzles market part yapts as well as fed officials. >> i think it's going to be very hard nor the fed to raise interest rates, as much as they

would like to find a reason. i think rates will stay in the very, very low level, at least through the balance of '16 and i don't see a way all the predi predicaments where they can start to raise short rates. >> judging by these minutes, people are confused overthe outlook for interest rates and strlt bank policy. the experts are only sure rates will be low, but they can't say how low or for how long. it has become increasingly hard to determine when the fed will raise rates, but doesn't it all come down to language? they have to figure out a way to say it in a way that doesn't disrupt markets. >> you're right. but also, i think the other line that janet yellen is clearly walking is that she's trying to delay raising rates as long as possible. and when you have data that is suggesting that ratsz should be raised sooner than that, she

knows once you start to raise rates, you can't go back. if, in fact, there's more weakness in the economy or frank illty in the economy that we haven't really looked at, you know, we've seen improving labor data. however, if you look into the data, we're still seeing a drop in labor participation. we're still seeing the high rates of unemployment. none of those rates are that great. there is an argument that the economy is still fragile despite otherwise improving data. >> while the u.s. is on a path away from news policy, can it benefit from other regions in other countries? how does that help the u.s. market? >> at some point, it drives capital into the u.s. market. it creates an asset bubble that will make people feel wealthier. that could incentivize more

spending. we're starting to see recovery in retail spending, and that's important for the u.s. because we've seen sluggish demand still in the u.s. so, in fact, if you inflate assets, if you make people feel wealthier on paper, they might be more willing to spend. >> and the drop in gas, how much does that add to consumer spending as we approach the holiday shopping season? >> you know, it does add to and it should add to consumer spending. now, it has not added as much as we had expected. even if you're putting money back into people's pockets, they see people who have been out of work for over a year and they say, you know, i better save just in case i lose my job. >> and, of course, there's a lack of wage growth which adds in another reason why we're not seeing consumer spending as high as some are expecting. we're going to leave it there, gina, thank you for your time. >> thank you. and let's get you a rundown of what to watch this trading day.

weekly jobless claims are out at 8:30. at 10:00, existing home sales and the philly fed. earnings continue to be a focal point. best buy, dollar tree report earnings, while gap, intuit and gamestop are out after the close. let's take a look at today's other top stories. a u.s. senate investigation is kritd kal of the risks posed by banks with commodities, including possible manipulation. the report looked in particular at goldman sachs's holdings of uranium, coal and aluminum. investigators say the banks didn't have enough capital to cover losses and they gained an

unfair trading advantage. goldman sachs has reportedly fired two employees after one allegedly shared confidential information from his time working for the new york fed. "the wall street journal" says the incident is coming to light as congress gets set to scrutinize wall street banks' influence over regulators. a former new york fed examiner claims goldman sachs interfered with her oversight of the firm. now, there appears to be no end in sight for the winter chill, covering parts of the u.s. but the show must go on at the buffalo bills stadium. we'll tell you more, after the break.

welcome back. let's give you some headlines. u.s. futures point lower. the u.s. senate turns up the heat on banks such as goldman sachs and jpmorgan over their influence on the physical commodities market. and president obama prepares to go it alone on immigration reform with executive action. and a heavy snowstorm which has killed at least seven people in the northeast united states is set to continue according to meteorologist. western new york state has braced for fresh snowfall.

nbc's dylan dryer has more. >> the snow falling right now has nothing to do with lake effect. but lake-effect snow is a fascinating phenomenon to produce this much snow in just 24 hours. take a look at the radar where we saw yesterday, these streamers come in and they pass over the same areas for hours and hours and hours. but then a little shift in the wind and the whole thing moves north. it started around 11:00 tonight and lasts about 18 hours producing heavy snow. and it likes like this area could be the area where we've seen three feet. if you're looking for a little extra pocket money and don't mind back breaking worth in the cold, head to western new

york. it's clearly snow from its stadium ahead of sunday's jets. the bill will pay $3 an hour and give you tickets for your time. and still to come on the show, president obama taking matters into his own hands with reforming immigration. but he's receiving pushback from the republicans. we'll get you that story next on "worldwide exchange." your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster? today there's a new way to work. and it'made with ibm.

we'll take a look at u.s. futures right now point to go a lower open. the dow jones industrial was down 50 points in premarket trade. now down 61 points. we did get that out on housing sector in the u.s., that could potentially change the market direct. right now, the s&p 500 trading down just about 6 points, taking cues from global data that we've been getting out of china as well as the eurozone, both of which have come out disappointing. now a new report by mackenzy shows the economy is $2 billion a year. half the global adult population will be overweight in 15 years' time, which will put a

significant burden on health care and requires significant intervention. the consultants say portion control, reformulation of food, better education and more exercise would combat the fat problem. >> this is just really interesting research, wilfred, because so many times we focus on broader issues like inflation and issues impacting our economy, but this is a global epidemic. obesity. in fact, this study shows 2.8 million deaths a year are attributed to heavy bodyweight and obesity. ar astonishing. >> keeping focus, president obama will outline his plans for u.s. im grail gragz policy in a speech tonight at 8:00 p.m.

eastern. an expected order is expected to shield as many as 5 million illegal immigrants making them eligible for work permits, but not eligible for government benefits. tracie potts joins us with the late pest. >> they wouldn't be able to get obamacare health care, for example, but they would be able to stay in this country legally. president obama has said over and over that he wants to find a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million undocumented workers and undocumented residents in this country. what he wants to do is lay out what he thinks he can do on his own to executive action without waiting for congress. they have been back in forth for years. what we're hearing is that the president will lay out a path for as many as 5 million immigrant toes stay in this

country. parents and children who were born in the united states, children who were brought here when they were younger, under 16 years old, and college students that have graduated in high tech fields. >> thank you, takes tracie potts, live from washington. >> other findings, only 0.25% of americans believe the u.s. is headed in the right direction. we're going to get some flashes out of the f1-t ferrari saying they've consigned sa baftal vettel on a thee-year deal. so he is taking the place of alonso, who has announced that he will be leaving ferrari, in the opposite direction by the

end of the season. it's not been confirmed yet where alonso will be going, but widely expected it will be mclaren. as a stronger dollar weighs on emerging market currencies, we hear from the ceo on how the weaker rand is hitting profits. that's a first on cnbc after this break.

welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> and i'm wilfred frost. u.s. futures point to a lower open as weaker than expected chinese and is business activity fuels global growth fears and fed minutes fair to give clarity on a rate hike. but the russian market hits the highest level of the kwoer, despite expectations that the economy slowed in the third quarter. and one of the country's biggest companies posted a 98% drop in profits. >> president obama is set to take executive action on immigration, but his go it alone strategy brings backlash among republicans.

>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. if you're just tuning in, thanks for joining us here on "worldwide exchange." before we even take a look at how markets are fairing ahead of the u.s. open, let's recap what happened in the u.s. session yet. the s&p 500 trading fairley flat in the session up until the release of those fomc minutes. moments later, they went lower appearing to suggest increasing confusion over the central bank's outlook for interest rate hikes. officials expressed concerns over weakness in china and japan, which could suggest pushing out a rate hike. there is a gap between where the fed thinks they will be. ending the session flat just about three points on the day.

interestingly enough, the russell 2000, that is the small cap index which has been rebounding over the past two months, it fell about 1%. its biggest move to the downside. although, 29 stocks on the s&p 500 were able to hit a new 52-week high and that does include target, which reported better than expected earnings. driving into the european markets, we did get that weaker than expected eurozone pmi data which came in disappointing. markets are reacting to the downside. we're looking at the xetra dax down 50 points. french markets down 41. i also want to point your attention to the ftse 100. we did get in uk retail sales numbers this morning. furniture sales indicating a rebound in the housing recovery.

the ftse 100 still trading down by around 40 points despite a better than expected retail sales number. we are at session lows on the index. >> thanks, seema. we're going to have a look at that on russia now. the hribal has strengthened about 0.3% today. it is still down significantly on the year. exporters have to sell a bit of that to settle some tax bills. over the course of the year, it is down 42%. that move down has allowed the micex to hit its highest point of the year today. it's up 0.8%. basically flat over the course of the year, but recovered

ground in recent weeks to reach its high point of the year over the last day or so. that comes at a point when russia will expect to confirm growth slowed to 0..% on an annual basis in the third quarter today. >> russia's vtb bank posted a staggering overover year drop in profits. earnings came in below analyst expectations. you can see that stock trading lower at the moment. it is up about 11% over the past one month. now a u.n. report captured 30 minutes ago shows the crisis continuing to take a toll on ukraine. more than 4,000 people have been killed in fighting in the eastern part of the country. joining us now with more on the story is hadley gamble, our middle east correspondent. hadley, i suppose this isn't breaking news, but it's

confirmation of how serious this continues to be. >> absolutely. i think something lining 13 people a dayry dying. and essentially what you have is an ampling up of the rhetoric on both sides and no clear solution on the table as of yet. another interesting story is vladimir putin's taste for gold. russia has been the most active accumulator. why do you think that is? >> if you're going the take the position that's mr. putin has taken, you have to build a war chest. that indicates to me he's looking at different areas, anyway.

i think you'll see some major ramping up of things by russia in the future. what we have seen with the ukraine situation in the last couple of days, sergei lavrov coming out and saying the decision to cut off social services payments, it's precipitating military action. so i think unfortunately we're going to continue to see these problems going forward. >> hadley gamble, thank you so much. definitely a big story. we want to bring you the latest on the shooting incident at florida state university. police say the person suspected in a shooting on campus was shot and killed by officers after failing to drop his weapon. three victims were reportedly injured and immediately transported to local hospitals for treatment. the fsu released a statement saying all classes and exams would be canceled for the day. goldman sachs has reportedly

been fired. "the wall street journal" says the incident is coming to light as congress gets set to scrutinize wall speak fanks. >> and we've been bringing you the latest on the takata if you remember. the sneetd hearing is calling on untils made by takata. this affects nearly 8 million cars in the u.s. the hearing will focus on how the air bags came to be installed in so many vehicles and what could be done to fix the safety defect. takata shares down about 44% over the past six months. now more trouble for bill cosby a day after a third woman came forward to claim the long time comedian sexually assaulted

her. tv land, a cable channel, will stop showing he sedes of the cosby show which ran on tv in the 1980s. and come up on the show, the u.s. senate is set to scrutinize wall street banks again following a report on their holdings in the commodities market. we'll get you those details after this break. 9m

investec is reporting a 14% rise in earnings. the south african bank benefits from a drop in bad loans. the weakness in the rand resulted in a drop for net profits. on the upside, they reported a boost in asset management. joining us now from london is steven kopfter. thank you very much for joining us. a solid set of results, but i suppose the rand is causing you some problems. >> the rank is weakened. hopefully it will stabilize from here on out. but it did take away quite a lot of the strong support that we had in the first half the of the year. >> a few weeks ago, stephen, moody's downgraded their rating on five of the major banks. i wonder if you think that's a fair move, bad loan provisions in your recent set of results

improving. do you think you should have been charged with some same as some of the other banks? >> i think we all got downgraded because the sovereign debt got downgraded. i guess it had nothing to do with the underlying performance in the bank, it had to do with the sovereign. i think we have seen a significant decline in our -- in south africa post in financial crisis. so it really has to do with the sovereign and as you're aware, economic growth has been weak in south africa, which is really having an impact on the deficit and you saw the findings had to bring in quite strong fiscal consolidations, in other words to handle further down grades. >> stephen, south africa known for being the biggest economy in africa and known for being one of the most economically unequalled countries in the world. do you think that will ever change? if so, when? >> i think wait was a big

negativity of apartheid. you have seen significant improvement in income per capita for all the people. there's a lot of -- what we call social grant yor, so as the mos successful country in redistribution. so it's a question of no economic growth to actually uplift the whole society. and there are big opportunities that we need the policy framework so we can benefit from those opportunities. africa is growing at 1.5%. we hope there is going to be a more business -- approach and the more collaboration of the business community. we see a lot more of that take place from government of late. that, you know, we really need to make thattest with supply so

we can grow at the right pace to overlift people from poverty. >> and, stephen, regulation and litigation that is growing massively over the next couple of years and particularly the last couple of weeks, moving forward globally, is that a significant threat to your bottom line? >> we've had to continue a much greater level of inclusion from regulators. it has affected all our bottom lines over the past couple of years. that is greater capital requirements. going forward, we should be able to cope with that quite effective will i. we responded by building more capital revenue that don't require as much capital and we now, 54% capital arc from 60/40 the other way five years ago.

so we are all managing to cope. sflefr week, it seems like we're learning about a bank breaking the rules or some type of misconduct. at some point, they have to ask themselves, is this going to stop banks from being involved in misconduct or do you think as a ceo of a bank that some type of cultural change is needed? >> i think culture in the banking system is very important. and doing the right thing by your client is very important. so there needs to be a cultural shift the. you will see ta cultural shift take place over the next couple of years. i think the sector did go through a bad period, but, you know, i believe that culture is a really important thing and it needs to be brought to the front. >> stephen, thank you for

joining us. >> thank you. the u.s. is set to scrutinize some big wall street bank over their ownership of the commodities and the impact they have in the commodities market. landon dowdy with the latest. >> good morning. a senate investigate relief. this mark heads to a two-day hearing on the senate subcommittee which starts today. investigators say the banks didn't have enough capital to cover these losses. they also had an unfair trading advantage compared to commercial rivals. the report stemmes from a two-year probe initiated by democratic senator carl levin of michigan who is retiring in january. senators sherrod brown and elizabeth warren have grilled

bank executives and regulars twice in this past year. at one time, morgan stanley had about 6,000 pounds of pipelines and goldman sachs as owned as much as 1.5 tons of aluminum. critics say caused the laser deliveries and inflated prices. they claim the delays hiked up by cause. but the fed has taken preliminary steps towards new regulations. the banks say they play a crucial role, providing financing and liquidity and reducing market volatility. all three have cut their holdings of physical commodities, but goldman and morgan stanley say they plan to remain active in the market. seema, back to you. >> thank you so much.

now some tech news. yahoo! scores a victory over goog google. mozilla, which owns firefox will offer a yahoo! search to its u.s. users. there had been tensions between mozilla and google as google's kroem browser has been stealing market share from firefox fop years now. over the past three months. the chinese premier suggested li xleefs getting prepared for the tech xwral

changes. alibaba and microsoft will be speaking to one another. speaking to cnbc, steven mullemcopf said china was key to its business. >> we're still focused on china, getting through china, how we extent our business model into china, that's the key driving our business right now. on the product side, things are going quite well. we have a strong '14. '15 we think will be a similar strategic and competitive environment. so it's really all about china for us. >> and sticking with tech news, i just want to point out that appear le is in focus. morgan stanley raising its price to $156 per share. after appearing has acquired

beef electronics. the question is, this will attract more headlines? >> 126 the target for morgan stanley. before we go to break, these are your headlines. u.s. futures point lower after disapointing activity from eurozone in china fuel growth fierce. >> the u.s. senate turns up the heat on banks after their influence on the physical commodities market. and president obama prepares to go it alone on immigration reform with executive action.

welcome back. stoxx 600 opened the session earlier at 0.3% in the red. it's weakened from that trade, 0.75% in the red.

off the back of weak european pmi data. as you can see, italy's laggard, the ftse 100 slightly outperforming, only down 0.7%. that seems to be weighing on u.s. markets which right now are trading lower in premarket trade after stocks boosted motdest losses on the back of the fomc meeting minutes. lbrands third quarter profits rose beating forecasts and the group raised its full year outlook. the parents of victoria's secret and bath & body works has been a relatively bright spot in the industry. l brands raised guidance earlier this month. trading thus far in frankfurt, flat for the day. >> and is, of course, americans are getting ready to shop till they drop this holiday season. the national retail federation estimates 140 million people are likely to hit stores or shop joan line over the thanksgiving weekend. specifically, 29% say they would shop and about a third are in

the waiting category to see if deals are worth it before heading out. to talk about retail, let's bring in stacey. great to have you in studio. interestingly enough, the sales this week or i guess over the next couple of weeks seem to be spread out. do you think because of that we'll see black friday lose its appeal? >> black friday is becoming less and less important every year. last friday, you saw a lot of retailers start the week before as they panicked into the holiday season to gain the most share. i think you'll see the same thing this year. walmart has talked about spreading black friday out over five days. target is going to start the wednesday before. the stores are opening this year at 5:00 on thanksgiving versus 8:00, 10:00 the years before. they're trying to get consumers in the store earlier. >> this seems to be a special one off day. it becomes a bit of a price war, doesn't it? it's going to hurt margins? >> i think that's an accurate description. over the last couple of years, you've been seen more and more

promotions. target is talking about free shipping from now through the holiday. that's going to hurnlg margins, but it's going to drive consumers to their website and increase that traffic. >> you know, you might find this interesting, wilfred. i thought black friday was a u.s. phenomenon, but marks & spencer among others will be partaking in the deals, as well. does black friday provide a boost to retailers here in europe, as well? >> you know, it's funny. the americanization of europe has happened over the past several years. now even uk retailers are trying to get in on the black friday hype. does it help? promotions help. that's the bottom line. this year, i think we'll see growth margins under pressure again, but i think investors very much expect it. and, again, it's really a market share battle. we've seen a slew of preannouncements already. retailers are positioning themselves and saying, how can we get up, you know, earlier than our competitors? >> let's talk about the earnings season for the retailers thus

far. stocks have done pretty well on the back of it. on the headline, the nebs weren't that impressive. >> that's what's so interesting. really, we started with the preannouncement in retail. jcpenney's, kohl's, retail, the retail index has rallied over 10% with these preannouncements. you have to look at the specations here. you saw target, you saw walmart. they've been comping negative for the year. a lot of it is let's look forward to holiday. last year we had a terrible holiday, the weather was awful. the expectations are this year we will get a decent holiday, we'll see. >> stacey, thank you for your time. with q3 behind us, we'll be looking for a holiday season and q4. but for now, that is all we've got time for in today's show. i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm seema mody. thanks for watching. next up is "squawk box."

good morning. taking action on immigration. president obama set to address the nation on his plans. and going behind the wheel, arizona, suing general motors for $3 billion over recalls. and google with a default search engine on firefox. it's thursday, november 20th, 2014 and "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. there are three big stories to watch today. as joe mentioned, president obama will be holding a prime time speech tonight on immigration. a new nbc news "wall street journal" poll out this morning says 48% of americans oppose the idea of the president taking executive action on the issue while 38% support it. john harwood will join us in the next half hour to talk about it. a number of big economic reports due out today. at 8:30 eastern time, we'll go getting consumer price index and jobless claims. and later, thely fed survey and october leading economic indicators. and don't panic, but there are only 34 days left until christmas. the nrs says 140 million holiday shoppers are likely to take advantage of the thanksgiving weekend deal. we'll be hearing from a few companies this morning. we've got best buy and dollar tree both posting quarterly results before the open this morning. then this