good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. there are three big stories to watch today. as joe mentioned, president obama will be holding a prime time speech tonight on immigration. a new nbc news "wall street journal" poll out this morning says 48% of americans oppose the idea of the president taking executive action on the issue while 38% support it. john harwood will join us in the next half hour to talk about it. a number of big economic reports due out today. at 8:30 eastern time, we'll go getting consumer price index and jobless claims. and later, thely fed survey and october leading economic indicators. and don't panic, but there are only 34 days left until christmas. the nrs says 140 million holiday shoppers are likely to take advantage of the thanksgiving weekend deal. we'll be hearing from a few companies this morning. we've got best buy and dollar tree both posting quarterly results before the open this morning. then this afternoon, we'll be

hearing from gap stores while we take a look at the markets in the meantime. the futures are indicated lower. dow futures down by 62 points below fair value. s&p futures off by seven. the nasdaq down by 17. what was happening in asia overnight? you'll see the nikkei cloez closed up slightly, and i mean ever so slightly. these are barely budging for both the hang seng and the shanghai, as well. in europe, you'll see some red arrows, coming on the news that some of the pmi numbers were weaker than expected when you look at europe. all week long, the european markets have been moving higher, but this morning on those weaker economic numbers, you'll see the numbers are down with the dax down by 0.8%. the cac in france off by 1.3%. the ftse down by 0.7%. andrew, i will send it over to you. did you start your holiday shopping yet? >> no. was i supposed to start already? >> yeah. i already started. >> you did? joe hasn't. joe, have you started shopping? >> i have to buy something for

one person. >> you only buy one thing? your wife is the only person you buy for? >> no, for me. i know what i want. yeah, she's the only one, basically. >> i have not begun. although, i don't know, the next company we're about to talk about, maybe people have begun. check out the number of stocks that are on the move this morning. l brands, formerly known as the limited, posting better than expected 43% increase in quarterly profits. the owner of the victoria's secret offered a forecast short of wall street estimates. williams sonoma is topping consensus, citing growth in e-commerce. dollar general says it's topping the s.e.c. about how many stores it's going to have to sell to approve its acquisition of family dollar. it always confuses everybody,

dollar general, family dollar, dollar tree, postponing the shareholders meeting jl december 3rd. and the company dealing with increased competitions and rising coffee prices. finally, a revenue outlook from keurig being hurt by a strong dollar. >> family tree, good idea. instead of dollar, family tree, family dollar. big news in the music and entertainment industry. billboard will now include streaming music and digital sales in its charts. this reflect tess changing world of how people consume music. the new chart will use data from services such as spotify, beats music and google play. of course, taylor swift has pulled her entire catalog from spotify arguing music should not

be free. >> that is crazy. people pay for spotify. >> nobody gives you power, sorkin. >> you have to take it. >> and you remember who said that. >> actually, i don't. >> i always tell you. jacques ewing. >> nobody gives you power, bobby, you take it. >> always arguing about j.r. >> as usual, a troublemaker. >> let's take a look at some of the broader markets this morning. oil prices, if you've been watching oil prices, taking a look at the ten-year note, at this point, it looks like the yield is coming in at 2.315%. the dollar this morning, right now looks like -- >> there you go. >> yeah, all right.

the dollar at this point, the dollar index up slightly. and gold prices this morning -- up $1 to $1,194.96. >> you don't care how long it takes. you know, after years on the air, you get to the point where you're comfortable with silence. it's good. >> we're not that comfortable with it. >> i know. you start whistling for me. thank you. >> minutes from the fed -- it seems like hours just a moment ago. minutes from the fed needing failure to excite small cap stocks. fulg the brunt of that downturn, the russell 2,000 lost more than 1% in the nasdaq. our odds of a year-end rally dimming. joining us is mark letevie. and covering the economic angle,

the interim head of north american dshg america economics at citi. interim, huh? >> no longer interim. >> you know, i was going to say, if you do really well now, you could ice it. so no pressure, but they gave it to me, anyway. >> the volatility, you're not the stock guy, but volatility seems to be a little less. and we're not -- we're sort of assuming we're doing better here. 3%. but we're still sort of trading on every economic indicator out of europe. >> yeah. >> is that the way we should be doing? >> it's taking 3% to do well, when a typical recovery, we should be at 4% or 5% peak growth. >> i like where you're going here. whose fault is that? >> leaning on the fed to help get us there is really tough. everyone says, you know, the u.s. is a closed economy. we don't care about the rest of

the world. it didn't matter that, you know, the u.s. is now much more open than it ever was before. the share of traded sector is 30% of gdp. >> if we don't count of the fed, can we count onner central bank ers europe with qe and draghi? >> again, asking monetary policy on draghi's part and boj's part, because what's holding that growth in europe and japan? structural policies that need to be done and put in place by getting markets more efficient. instead, we're saying, qe, that's temporary. >> that's not that different than us. is it? in terms of we have five years, we had our -- you know, all our chips on bernanke. while we were addressing structural problems.

>> one thing that we have here that they don't have there is a function of international markets. we have incidenter mediation going on. the problems in japan and europe for sure is that the banking system is -- >> and that is locked up. >> yeah. >> so, narcotic, do you believe in santa claus? >> well, i certainly believe in the seasonality of fourth quarter rally. i think ul ultimately the underpinnings is decisionally strong for us to expect to see that. that said, i do expect to see continued volatility. in our view, 9.5%, full valuations were about 15 times what earnings are projected to be over the course of the entirety of 2015. i think as a consequence, investors demand good news. that's why you see these daily swings in the u.s. equity markets predicated on not so much what is happening domestically, but what is

happening abroad. so we get the german zew index report a couple of days ago that was up for the first time in 11 months. european equities rally. we rally. subsequently, today we're down on the futures market on the back of a weak manufacturing pmi number. that's that is what we're going to be subject to in the coming months. the u.s. economy is sufficiently strong to be able to ward off weak growth. >> kind of background noise, i suppose. we kind of alert between earnings seasons and, you know, days with employment reports or whatever. we're always looking for something. but it seems a little bit as if there's a vacuum right now and it's almost -- i think that's the holiday season, too, isn't it? it's going to get worse. >> well, you know, you're right. we're at the waning stages of earnings season. the next fed meeting isn't until late december. so we have this voice of information, although i think

what we're going to be looking for is, obviously, holiday sales to be a point of bailing us out in terms of giving you some information. given the fact that we've had dramatic fall in oil prices which is supposed to be a tail wind to consumer spending. all eyes are point to go what retailers will be expecting here in the coming weeks relative to what kind of activity we might so he seem to hear in the weeks leading up to christmas. >> so, bill, the lower oil pries, will we see this christmas affected by that in terms of positively? >> we are definitely going to see a jolt in consumer spending. sometime end of this year, early next year. what we're worried with more is what is monetary policy going to do next year? >> more about that than oil prices in the consumer? >> oil prices, it will participate unless you continue to believe oil prices are going to go down below $70, $75. no one has that target in mind. the policymakers of the fed are worried about 2016 and the end of 2015.

that's why the weaknesses are going to start showing up. we don't have clear support for growth either in the rest of the world or the domestic economy. we have all this wealth build up. everyone is saying, well, it's in the pipeline. and i'm worried and saying, you know, it's much weaker than it used to be. >> meaning we just changed our behavior, maybe we're just nerve justice? >> i think we're nervous about what's happened that valuations go up. we say, you know, i'm not going to spend all of that. i don't know if that wealth is going to hang out there at that high level. >> maybe we are beginning to become more like japan. >> certainly the cautionary servings are something that i'm looking closely at. in fact, their forecast hasn't changed on the rest of the year, but the risks are on the

downside going into the next year. that's where the term really matters. >> mark, do you like next year? 2200 on the s&p? where are you? >> we are around 2200. i think that actually i feel reasonably good about 2015. i don't quite adopt that same sort of pessimistic view about conditions. i think there's enough evidence that we have expansion primarily on the back of job growth, increasing confidence among consumers and business leaders alike. i think that consequence of some business spending coming in, the tailwind that's largely been absent from the economy over the last couple of years, coupled with the fact that job growth has been consistently north of 200,000 a month for nine consecutive months, which is the first time that's happened since the mid 1990s will contribute to spending. i'm not suggesting we're in a poly anna state where we're going to see 4%, 5% economic growth. but certainly bouncing over trend in 2015 isn't an investment disaster. as a consequence, i think that's

fort corporate profits to continue to grow. certainly equities in our view to provide a better reward for investors relative to cash and bonds. >> absolutely. don't get me wrong. i think the risks are on the downside. but my global forecast is still right there. >> okay. good. mark, do you feel safe in your position? can we call you back again? >> i certainly hope so. >> unless i blow this interview on the interim and mark is there permanently, so -- >> no, i'm permanent. >> because we got confused on the -- i'm sorry we said interim. >> we'll see where that forecast comes out next year. >> in an existential sense, aren't we all? >> on that bright note. >> that depressed me. >> yeah, thank you. >> thanks for that. all right. coming up, do all good things

come to an end? talking about things being interim, yes, here it is. lots of buzz. jet blue's plans to charge the checked bags. they're now the last airline -- >> southwest. >> southwest. >> and if you pay enough on jetblue, they'll still let you take your bags on. anyway, the biggest students lenders, we're going to talk about the somewhat controversial move. then at 6:30 eastern time, headlines in a new nbc news "wall street journal" poll, including reactions in the midterms. and it's 6:50 eastern. the nation's largest wine importer of the industry's biggest leak of the year. "squawk box" will be back in just a moment. with healthcare costs, who knows. umm... everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach.

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welcome back to "squawk box." >> for now, let's take a look at some new stuff. changes in the picture. unbelievable, 50 to 70 inches of snow towards hamburg. they're expecting more snow. it's just streaming on in. in addition to the five or six feet of snow we already have, another 18 to 24 is a possibility. this is off lake ontario. we have snow down off of lake erie, as well. you brought up a good point.

for most of the country, the story is cold. we have good news there. the jet stream is going to lift to the north. when that happened, we get a nice, warm southerly flow in here. now, the catch is that lit come with rain. so a lot of people on the east coast, energy, d.c., down into atlanta. temperatures will get back into the 50s and 60s. we are watching another system as we head into friday night. that will move down into the southern plains. we'll be looking at a tornado threat down across texas. and you've got from five or six feet of snow is in the great lakes and cold air, a pattern change, and now back into some severe weather down across the southern plains as we head into saturday. all of that moisture does move into the eastern seaboard with those warm temperatures, as well. cold for another day or two. we're going to be around 49 today. 36 tomorrow. look at monday. getting into the low 70s at that point. it doesn't last very long. we get the temperatures to go

back down. if you're thinking about black friday, shopping, look, we're still a week or more away. but at some point, it looks like we'll see rain, maybe a little bit of mixture down across the plains. if you haven't gone shopping already, you might have issues a little early. >> you know what? i appreciate how you always give us that optimistic view of the weather. i like where you cut that bar graph off. we're going to leave it on that note. you're the weather man i like. that's good. thank you. we've got tacos. yesterday it was a little bit like that. jet blue is now the latest airline to charge for checked baggage. it's adding more seats into its aircraft. joe says if you're tall, this is not a good situation. disgruntled consumers taking to social media, but wall street praising the move. >> aren't they putting bigger screens in, too? >> yeah. and you're going to have internet access. so there are some benefits, but

the seats are getting smaller. >> one of the things i always liked about jetblue was the roomny seats. that's not great news. the bags i'm not surprised by. in fact, at some point, dare i say southwest may actually go there. gary kelly has not been as firm to saying no, we would never do that. i was with him the day that the very first airline company announced those baggage fees. his reaction was, no, you're kidding me. we would never do that. >> you benefited too long from the deregulation of the '70s, jimmy carter. we benefited too long. prices, you'll be getting a free ride. >> well, no -- >> you can't expect a bankrupt industry. everything has to changed. >> but just put all the -- >> you can't fly to l.a. for $300. >> no, but put that extra 50 bucks in it instead of hiding the price, sticking people with it later and having all of these people who try and cram their

luggage on to the flight. >> it's not really hiding. >> you know how awful it is to wait in line when people are trying not to pay that baggage fee? >> nobody is a friend of the airlines right now. they need a friend. like jet blue any more or southwest? >> i can get five or six bags on location without -- they don't even ask about the costs, usually. >> i like the way you put that out there like, whatever happens, just to throw people off. >> write down the tail numbers. >> they do try to -- anyway. >> let's talk about another big story this morning. two of the biggest student lenders have agreed to relax terms after complaints of borrowers. kayla tausche joins us right now. good morning, becky. this will make borrowers like banks maybe a tiny bit more than

the airlines. i think they're probably in the same company. thousands of people who are struggling to pay back students loans from the private sector may get a break from two key lender, wells fargo and discover. they won't be late or in default yet. they're going to slash interest rates down to 1%. discover is still working out the details of its program. wells fargo's john wrath musen said the bank began. >> we started to hear more and more feedback from our customers that solutions that we had for them in the past weren't working enough for them because of the tough economic times for students coming out of the financial crisis. so that's what stepped us occupy priority. >> for years, the consumer financial protection bureau has been criticizing lenders writing

the lack of refinancing remains what it called a major pain point in the market. wells and discover together have backside 20 billion in outstanding student loans. by comparison, the federal government, $1.1 trillion. default rates at the government level, 14%. at the private less, less than 2%. one of the reasons the industry says they haven't needed to do this is they haven't had as many borrowers with complaints. >> with the cftv ratcheting things up, is this a move to get ahead of the legislation or any push from regulators? >> it's unclear at this point, and there are still only a handful of players in this space. so the ones that are left are the ones that are going to need to be building these modification programs if they don't have them already. but, becky, this has been

something that the cfpd has been talking about. >> you're saying at this point, they're getting out ahead of it. >> yes. and wells says it's been doing loans for 18 moss saying look, i lost my job, i got a pay cut and i need to start tuking about maybe paying less per month. >> they said the things they used to do for borrowers weren't, woulding. what did they used to do? >> they didn't used to do all that much. there is a prenew market. it always existed to some extent, but it really only got popular from an origination standpoint leading up to the financial crisis when some of these banks were looking for different places and they were going to the private student loan market, tuitions were going up and we know the shape of that curve very well at this point. so it was really in tandem with the federal government markets. this is really -- the size, even though it is relatively small and some of the issues they're doing was relatively new

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good mobl . good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. it is the official start of the holiday shopping season is now just a week away. amazon says it's ready this time. the e-commerce giant is warming up the robot. how would you -- >> that would be dangerous. >> yeah. but amazon is stocking several of its warehouses with these machines. the robots -- >> robots. >> cincinnati, robots. >> the robots move stock shelves to the workers and then the actual human robots skip the step of having to walk the long aisles to look for something.

>> you walk a long, long way. it's a tough job. >> it is a very tough job. >> "the wall street journal" reports amazon expects employees at some of its robot equipped plant to scan at least 300 items an hour, compared to just a hundred under the old system. >> we're going to help you, but you better step up production. >> the great story in the atlantic about a year ago about a person who went to work at one of these warehouses. >> i read it, too. >> that sounded like a tremendously challenging job. >> a lot of times, it's very hot in the summertime, it's very cold in the winter. you are walking long. >> i think down in north carolina, one of the warehouses where they did say it is overheated. make headlines at this hour, yahoo! striking a deal with firefoxmaker mozilla. joe has already upgraded. >> fire fox. firefox will be replacing google

as the default search engine. financial terms not disclosed. just to put it in context, firefox has 10% of the market. >> i like firefox. >> chrome, which is google, has about 33% of the market. >> they're not -- i mean, google is dominant, right? >> google is dominant, this is true. >> is there any way ta -- >> no. >> how much is microsoft internet explorer? >> firefox, 10%. google's chrome browser was the leader with 33.5%. i do want have the number for microsoft. >> that's interesting. they used to be so big because anything that you open in microsoft outlook, when you try and open a website in explorer. >> also, i should tell you arizona's attorney general is suing general motors for $3 billion. that state claiming the automaker deliberately put t

the -- at risk. this is one of many lawsuits we'll be hearing about for quite a while. let's check on the markets this morning. the futures are under a little bit of pressure today. right now, you'll see the dow futures are down by about a 3 points below fair value. svk off by 7. oil prices at this point look like they're down $75. $74.35 for wti. brent is at 78.07. the ten-year note looks like it's yielding at 2.15%. the dollar index is stronger. it is up across the board. you can see the euro trading at 1.2531. dollar/yen at 118.09. and gold prices also look like they barely budged this morning. they are down by only by about 60 cents. >> we got a new nbc news "wall street journal" poll out this morning. john harwood joins us now with some of the highlights this morning. john. >> hey, andrew. you know, the big i highlight is

the question on immigration and what our poll shows is that president obama is walking into risky territory with this executive order. if you look at how attitude towards the executive order breaks down by race, 55% of whites say they're not for it. you have very strong support among african-americans. but latinos are only mildly for it. 4337. 43/37. you get a large proportion, 6 and 10 say yes, i do support that. but what they don't support is the president acting on his own without the congress. and it's a challenge for not just the president, but also his

party. >> it's the executive action, i guess, john, more than the principal of what's going on. right? >> exactly. it's not just substance. it is the feeling that the president is doing this on his own. this is a president whose popularity is -- it's not at its lowest level. it is 44% in our position. but it's middling. you ask people, you know, who should take the lead on policy in the country. large majority of people say the congress, not the president. this is typical after midterm elections. >> don't make it too typical, john. >> i heard a lot of people saying that after the midterms. it doesn't really mean anything. you know, that's -- >> one of the things -- whether it means anything or not, after midterm elections that favor one party in a strong way, you have

people saying, yeah, congress should be in charge. >> hey, john, mark zuckerberg i imagine and a lot of folks in the tech community have to be happy about this policy. how is this going to change the hb1 issue? >> there are details on hb1. the dominant force is to extend immediate relatives of people who are u.s. citizens or greener card holders now. that is in essence saying you have these people who are lawfully here. the people closest to them are declared lawfully here. the principal they're trying to vindicate is to keep from breaking up families. >> you don't get it's going to adjust the business issue at all? >> no. i think it might.

i don't know how it's going to address the business issue. >> somewhere between letting in i don't know how many people. somewhere between every sympathy one, 9 million, whatever it is, probably not allowed. so there is some number or not. are you up to speed with what the president has said in the past that all the cable networks are saying again and again and again? >> how different is this action now based on what he -- suppo d supposedly what his conviction was back then? >> wall hear from the president what sort of legal justification he has. but when he was getting pressure

to do this earlier, his answer was, hey, i'm not a king, i can't do everything by myself. they've been getting pressure about this all week about what about what the president said about this before? but no, that is a problem. >> it's a conflict with the position he has taken before. >> the other one is going to get some plan. i can promo our newest hire, jay leno. he can say things in sort of a way and get away with things that's kind of funny. but back then, he was saying they changed the name. it's no longer legally correct. but this is coming to the fore

again. she's calling them illiterate democratic voters is what the 4 million coming in are. is there something to adding to a voting block of four million? that is a pretty good election. if they were all going to -- >> first of all, no, these are not people who are allowed to vote. >> okay, they would not be allowed to vote. >> no. but the underlying attitude reflected by that is very dangerous attitude for republicans. if they're taking the view that his panics crossing the border coming into the country are democrat, they're going to condemn themselves to not getting support from latinos. but they cannot assume that assumes latinos are going to be

a 90% democratic group. >> what site be at this point? >> there is no path to citizenship. >> this is temporary protection for deportation. >> temporary? >> don't know what the duration of the protection is, you know, the dreamers. that was implemented in 2012. and, you happen, i don't know if that's an automatic renewal or if it's simply indefendant national, but they know they are protected. but it's not the same thing. under the senate bill, the path

to citizenship was at least ten years long. >> a new president, though, could produce a new executive order that effectively reverses that -- >> i can't imagine -- >> there's no question about that. but then they would start to -- you start deporting the same people that thought they could stay? i can't imagine that. >> well, joe, but here t thing. de facto, we're not deporting those people already, right? >> so what difference would it make? >> the difference is -- the difference is that they know that they are safe, right? so they have a protection. >> but in a practical difference, i don't think it's going to make a huge, you know, revolutionary change in deportation because most of those people aren't being deported, anyway. >> she's saying they're got to

vote, anyway. the voting laws have not been held up to scrutiny, right, john? most of them get thrown out? >> it's mixed in the courts, but yeah, we're moving toward voter i.d. they're -- i haven't seen evidence that that has dramatically changed the contours of the electorate. >> can people vote that aren't citizens at this point, john? >> i'm sure some do. >> john, i wanted to mention one other element of our poll, which goes against the presumption about what -- a couple weeks ago, which is.

>> 52/46 think government should do more. >> but that is basically a reflection of congress and the white house hasn't done anything in four years, it seems like. >> it is a more roy bust number. >> some people would say they would be doing something to help the government to help people, right? >> well, but the alternative -- john -- >> you didn't have it just about entitlements or handouts. >> no, no. >> just the help. okay. government means different things to different people. >> it depends what the meaning of help is. >> exactly. a little bit too much help for a couple of years. >> good to see you, john. >> have a good one. still to come on "squawk box" today, the nation's largest line importer, how the u.s.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the fed is rejecting moving into commodity markets in 2010. the report is critical of limiting bank's activity in physical raw materials trading. it began denying some requests

to engage in that market earlier than that. 42-year-old shawn miller was part of the risk management team at citi. he was found dead in his bathtub with his throat cut. no weapons would found. the death is considered suspicious and they are currently investigating. i say that without comment because i don't even know what to say. >> right. no weapon was found and -- >> that's not usually a way that people would -- >> no. somebody else, right? >> no weapons, i don't know. coming up, did you know that thanksgiving is the biggest week of the year for wine sales? well, it is. and if you want to bring a bottle to your holiday table, buy nous because prices tend to

jump 4% during the week. i mean, becky waits for her selection and gas prices might go down. >> this from the guy who puts let gas in because he's not going to use it all. >> a drive 350 miles to get 10 cents off on gas. as we head to break, check out the stocks on cnbc.com.

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whining and dining, thanksgiving, i didn't know this before. the single biggest holiday of the year for wine sales. on average, sales are roughly 45% to 50% higher during the week than they are for the rest of the entire year. u.s. wine consumption has been on the rise over the past decade. still with us on the set is tom stefansi, one our stat, not only is it on the rise here, we just surpassed france, is that true?

>> think about that. five times the population and we just -- >> should be happened years ago. >> what does that say about how much the french drink? >> what is it so much wine purc is not a november buy but a december buy. >> it's nice because most people have a four-day weekend. there's not too many that you get a four-day weekend. you get together with family and friends around the table. >> you're going to need something to get you through the weekend. >> your aunt molly is nicer after a glass of wine. >> how does that compare to christmas? >> christmas is close. christmas is the second biggest week of the year. about a 40% increase over what is a typical week. >> everybody celebrates thanksgiving. not everybody celebrates christmas though. >> is december the biggest month? >> december is the biggest month. and thanksgiving is the biggest week. >> talk to us about the price point.

what are people buying and what does it say about the consumer right now? >> what happens is you see a jump up to higher wines. people tend to buy better when they're entertaining than they buy for themselves. and beer drinkers will buy wine just for the holiday period. just for thanksgiving because they feel like that's what they want to offer their guests and want to impress their guests. >> you brought a couple of wines for us. >> i did. i brought a josh chardonnay. you can taste that when you get a minute. give it a swirl to get air in it. josh is a brand that was created by our partner joseph carr. he created it in honor of his dad. this is a $13 chardonnay from california. if you smell, you get nice fruit on the nose. it's a very balanced, elegant wine. would go great with turkey if you're preparing turkey without a lot of gravy or spice. it would be an excellent choice to serve with turkey or just

enjoy with your friends. >> you said $13 bottle. that's a decent price for a bottle you serve your guests. >> very good value. the average price of a bottle of wine is about $9. it's a tradeup for every day. >> and what do you have for the reds? >> joseph carr. it's about $20. $20 from napa is a great value. and the way they do this is unique. so joe's partnered with a famous wine maker who makes wines mostly over a hundred dollars. and the model here is aaron takes pieces of leftovers from hundred-dollar wines that he makes and from friends and builds a blend of an affordable cabernet. >> how many bottles break when you ship them? that's got to be part of your business.

>> not many. the way they're put on trucks, they got it down to a science. >> and how many bottles are bad? i have to admit, i don't have the best wine nose. and so i wonder whether i'm one of the guy who ends up drinking the entire bottle of wine that's actually bad and i don't know it. >> if you think it's good, it is good. corks, there is a small incidence of corks because it's a natural fiber that can be bad. >> so you're better off with a twist-off? >> i think wine that you're going to put age on, the cork allows some breathing. for this joseph carr, that cork will help this wine age gracefully. wines you're going to drink right away, the reason we have a screw cap on the josh chardonnay, it preserves the freshness. it depends how you want to use the wine. >> tom, thank you. >> happy to be here. have a happy thanksgiving. drink lots of wine. when we come back this morning, quarterly results from best buy. the analysis on how the retailer

is going ahead of the critical holiday shopping season. "squawk box" will be right back. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. for tapping into a wealth of experience...

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gearing up for the black friday rush. we're going to have predictions on how many will be looking for early deals. plus quarterly results from best buy. crash test results. this time for minivans. the findsings are troubling. and the garden state gamble. the battle over sports betting in new jersey going to court. why the nba thinks this should be a slam dunk as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. areas in new york buried under feet of snow. the storm has claimed at least seven lives. you're looking at a live shot of buffalo this morning. a lot more snow could be on the way. we will get the forecast a little later in the program. the other big story we're following this morning, president obama set to give a primetime address on immigration reform. expected to outline a program that would bypass congress granting legal status and work permits for 5 million illegal immigrants. also a "wall street journal" poll out this morning saying they oppose the executive action on that issue. while 38% support it. we'll pick up this topic later with senator john thune at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. all right.

let's take a look quickly at best buy. looks like adjusted earnings came in at 32 cents a share. street was only looking for 25 cents, so that's a beat of seven cents. looks like revenue also topped expectations. some comments from the president and ceo just saying that the team has delivered positive comp sales, improved profitability and continued progress on their renew blue transformation. the fourth quarter is going to be important. they say they're excited about the holiday plan. >> i might have a couple of pennies in there. >> from what you've been buying? oh, right. the move. the upgrade and update of everything. >> and i didn't -- you know, they fixed some of the problems where you go in there and look at it and you buy it on amazon and they don't match the price.

you take it back you don't have to take it back and then buy it at the other place. and they help you with, i need help. believe me. tvs have -- andrew, they have pandora on them. >> you can get netflix on them. >> they're loaded with all these things. and then i got something, you know, you put the internet wire into the tv directly. it's like a computer. >> comments from the cfo, she says the sales trends we're seeing are encouraging from a top line perspective. but to drive these results similar to third quarter, they are internal and external factors we believe put the pressure on your operating rate. internal pressures being the mix of slower growing. but potential of higher incentive. if you look at external factors, it's a competitive environment. we already heard from walmart

that they expect this to be a promotional holiday season. sending that warning shot early on is something best buy expected this year. but they also talk about -- >> online sales. >> -- a possible constraint -- >> the 22%. the domestic online comp sales up 22%. >> but one of the things they mentioned was the supply chain disruption related to the west coast port delays. that is something retailers are watching. >> overall domestic sales up. which is not awful. the demise of best buy was greatly exaggerated. the black friday forecast released. courtney reagan has the details. what time did you get in? you got in really late. i saw these other people up at your -- >> and i was in minneapolis yesterday. >> you were? >> i was. >> well welcome back. how cold was it there? >> really cold. lots of snow. we landed in a snowstorm. >> it was so cold that -- oh,

you don't have any of those ready. i thought i was setting you up. >> i'm so tired. i'm not ready. >> i have those but not for television. >> i'm not surprised. >> i'm not here yet, joe. i'm not here. >> yeah, he's not here yet. >> it's courtney's time. >> we'll get to him in a second. because next week is a big time. thanksgiving. black friday door busters. according to the national retail federation, more consumers are waiting to see if those deals are worth it before they decide to make the commitment to go out and shop. more than 31% of shoppers surveyed say they're taking a wait and see approach to black friday. that's 2% more than had that same thought last year. still 6 in 10 americans say it equates to 140.1 million people say they will shop from thanksgiving through the weekend. that is down just slightly from the intentions last year with

143 million. however, 141 million actually did come out and shop for the big weekend. so retailers have stretched black friday deals before and after the big day, black friday still expected to see the highest amount of shoppers. 68.2% of those 140 million people that plan to shop over the weekend will be out on black friday. 43% saturday. 21% sunday. 18.3% will shop on thanksgiving. that's actually down from almost 24% last year. but 3/4 of those that are hitting the stores are turkey day did it last year. they must have liked it enough to come back and do it again. >> even though the numbers are down, doesn't mean the retailer is going to slow it down. more time to get you in the door. >> they just want to stretch it out. they'll get your dollars whenever they can. they just want them. >> all right. courtney, thank you. >> thank you. >> let's check out the markets right now. we've been telling you the futures.

they've been trending lower. the dow futures look like they're down by about 60 points. the s&p futures off by 15.5. late wednesday after the release of the fed minutes. the major averages all finishing down slightly with the s&p 500 snapping a four-session winning streak. but when we're talking about declines it was ever so slight. >> confusing message to the market. sent from the minutes of the october meeting yesterday. and that confusion showed up in markets. look at what happened to the dow. stronger, weaker, unchanged. the ten-year, unchanged. >> they said we don't know what it is. >> we're used to gyrations after the minutes come out. but not the trends of up and down. it was clearly a sign of the market sort of changing its mind

on where these hawkish or dovish minutes. they discussed rate hike communication so they're talking about the next step, raising rates. that's hawkish. they saw labor slack diminishing. they're concerned about lower inflation. and they're worried about global economics. they're watching both of those. i think the way to think about this, they're in a transition period. what we see from these minutes is that things like global economic weakness, things like lower inflation can delay what's going to happen, but i don't think they abort the flight. >> all right. let me ask you this. what was my point. do you think we are more or less likely to see the fed raise interest rates next year based on what you heard? >> i think they're exactly the same likely.

i did not see or hear anything that changes my view that it's something they're pointing towards. we've got the cpi coming up at 8:30. the new metric and i talked about this earlier this week is core inflation. if we know that inflation is going to come down because of commodity price declines, because of energy price declines. that's going to be your head line. you're going to see that be unchanged or negative. the question is "x" food and energy does the lower impulses from those things feed into the core. if the fed starts seeing that it's further and further away from the 2% goal, that's the way to begin. that's when you start thinking maybe june/july is too early. >> okay. thank you. >> that make sense? >> i think so. i think so. i think so. i think i get it. right now we do have more on how the fed will move markets in the coming year.

managing partner and it's great to see you this morning. >> good to see you, becky. >> what do you think after hearing from the fed yesterday? are you confused? do you think they are likely to raise by the middle of the year? >> i think if anything it's going to be later than what the expectations are. it seems like the expectations keep getting pushed further and further out. i tend to agree with steve, though, candidly that i don't think things have changed all that much. i would argue that it's wage inflation that's probably the single most important thing that the fed is watching. i think janet yellen, that's the basis of her academic work. i think he's concerned about that. and i guess the one thing i would say is an equity investor, i wouldn't fare the fed. i think you're a long way away from having the fed be a problem for you if you're an owner of stocks. >> so the fed is still your best

friend. >> yeah. it's not quite your best friend, it's becoming a little bit less of your best friend. but it's still a good friend. it's still something that you can rely on. they're not going to take the punch bowl away early. at least janet yellen will not. i feel very confident about that. >> jason, it's been the markets in europe we've been watching this week. they've been higher throughout the week. significant gains put on in many of these markets. this morning we heard that the flash pmi fell to its lowest level in 16 months. that is raising concerns about whether germany and the rest of the eurozone companies have been able to turn things around. how much does that overhang affect our markets here? >> i don't think it affects it all that much. just the extent to which close to 70% of our economy is still consumer spending. we're pretty closed economy, like it or not. and those -- to the extent to which there's not a financial crisis in europe or japan, i'm

not sure it has all that much of an impact. i do think to the extent to which the economic weakness in europe is affecting the core of germany, i think it's going to put a lot of pressure, even more pressure on draghi to ease. i think japan has shown it's all in. kuroda had his own it'll be enough moment. the pressure on europe to ease i think will be greater. i know a lot of my clients are starting to look at europe equities just the extent to which, you know, the feeling is it can't get much worse. and you have a situation where monetary policies are probably going to get easier. >> hey, jason. i wonder if you could give me your base case. you talked about the fed being the friend of equity investors. take us through 2016. what's the base case? how high could the fed push up interest rates over the next two years and two months?

>> well, i would argue -- and i have guys that would be better to answer this. i would argue they would want the feds fund rate closer to 2%. >> 2%? >> oh, my god. 2%. >> so that's telling us there's a decently long period of time here where the fed is not going to be doing much to really get in the way or to take away from the attractiveness of equitieeq. >> that's my view. you're right. i think what they're trying to do is normalize rates so they have some ability to actually ease the next time you do have a recession. and of course you're not -- we haven't completely given up on the business cycle. there will be another business cycle. but i think the fed is just acting very prudently to try to get themselves in a situation where they can help out if things start to weaken. but i think that's -- i really do think that's a ways away.

and generally speaking as you know, stock market tends to do well in the initial stages of fed tightening. and that's because it's happening for good reasons and reasons that are usually associated with stronger earnings, better economy, all of those sorts of things. it's only later on that fed tightening starts to become more of a problem. i think you've got some time here. >> all right. jason, thanks for joining us this morning. >> thanks for having me. >> steve, we'll see you in a little bit. . in other news this morning, the nbc universal news group announced a strategic development in kensho developed for investors. kensho answers millions of permutations of complex financial questions within seconds. and here at cnbc we are joining forces with kensho to bring context to our daily coverage. its analysis on top of a data base will allow us to give viewers and readers information that was reserved for a small group of hedge funds.

kensho's ceo and cofounder will be joining "squawk on the street" this morning. coming up next, is best buy a good buy heading into the holiday shopping season? and later, our own phil lebeau is going to be along with troubling crash test results for several minivans on the market. all that plus new jersey's fight to bring sports gambling to the state. swrooel a live report straight ahead when "squawk box" returns. you probably know xerox

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♪ it is a sunshiny day. best buy out with better than expected quarter lir earnings. revenue and store sales coming out. let's look at how the stock is reacting to this news. you can see it there. it is up almost 10%. based on those new earnings reports. joining us now on the "squawk" news line is anthony. upgraded best buy stock in january of last year. so we will give you a pat on the back for that. anthony, surprised by this though? >> definitely a bit surprised. not terribly surprised. i mean, i think the most prizing thing was not necessarily the bottom line beat because we've become accustomed to that.

it's the topline beat. it's the fact you had comparable store sales for the first time since the third quarter of last year. i think one of the things they said was they're cutting costs but they can't grow their top line. guess what. they grew their top line. to me that's the most encouraging thing. >> you look at a report like this. does this say more about the operational excellence or the turnaround story of best buy or does it say something broader about what's going on in the market place around consumers and their interest in buying electronics now? >> that's a great question. and i think the answer is both. there's no question that we have a little bit of a better product cycle right now. you've got the iphone 6. you've got ultra hd televisions. you've got wearables. but in addition to that, best buy is really operating at a much higher level than they were two years ago. both within the store and online. and so i think you're seeing both of those things in the

numbers. >> what's your price target on the stock now? >> well, my price target prior to earnings was $39. that would certainly be taking another look at giving this stunning performance. >> when you look at best buy and you think about its competitors. try to extrapolate. who else should we be looking at both on the good side and potentially on the bad side. >> that's a good question as well. i think it's a little tough. you look at a radio shack or hh gregg, both of them have flawed business models. so i wouldn't necessarily think that it's a good thing for either of those companies to maybe benefit like a costco and their consumer electronics department. maybe a walmart as well. certainly amazon. pure play competitors, i don't think this is a positive read through for them quite frankly. i think a lot of this has to do with all the great things that best buy is doing from an operational perspective. >> we have on the screen right

now now best buy stacks up. we've listed best buy, amazon, apple, walmart, and staples. i don't know if you cover staples. if you had a dollar to invest in any of those companies, where'd you put your money? >> no brainer. best buy. particularly like i said, we're now seeing the top line growth. and that was one of the concerns that you could only cut costs for so long. now we're seeing that. i think that we'll certainly see that continue through the holidays. >> thank you for joining us this morning. >> thanks for having me. >> appreciate it. up next, taylor swift's new album hits a milestone. the numbers you just can't shake off. you won't believe them when "squawk box" comes back. ep brea. and... exhale... aflac!

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welcome back to "squawk box." the day wouldn't be complete without taylor swift news. her new album "1989" is number one on the billboard charts for the third straight week. it's only the second album of 2014 to spend three weeks at the top. the sound track from disney's "frozen" spent 13 non-consecutive weeks at the top. "1989" has also sold 2 million copies already. billboard will now include streaming music and digital sales in its charts. the move reflects the changing world of how people consumer music. >> so if you take all your music off spotify, it's going to be harder to rank highly in the billboard charts if they are taking that and including it in their numbers. >> yes. >> you put your own music on spotify? >> no. taylor swift took hers off. >> you mean an artist. >> if you take it off, it's going to be harder to get in those rankings.

when we come back, the disturbing details from the latest crash test. this is must-see video for anyone who drives a minivan. our phil lebeau will be along with the details. right now as we head to a break, look at the equity futures. dow futures down by about 64 points below fair value. the nasdaq down by 17. e financial noise

financial noise financial noise financial noise

welcome back to "squawk box." among the headlines that are front and center this morning, facebook shuttle drivers watching that decision very closely. and arizona's attorney general suing general motors for $3 billion. claiming the automaker deliberately put the public at risk covering safety recalls. and goldman sachs fired two employees. the incident happened on

september 26th. the junior employee had had previously worked at the fed. the situation was immediately reported to its compliance team and the fed. that story running in the front page of the "new york times" today. it's an interesting one about a revolving door on what happens when you leave the fed and go to work at the bank and still have friends at the previous regulator and whether there's information that goes back and forth. there is an fbi investigation. but right now no word that they're going to face charges. >> this isn't probably news to anyone, but brutal cold and snow are hitting large parts of the country. keith carson joins us now from the weather channel. good morning again, keith. >> good morning, guys. you know, the story for a lot of people has been this tremendous snowfall. look at these totals. over five feet in lancaster. go to buffalo, only six inches. this swath of heavy snow continuing. they're looking at more snow.

we're looking at this drift to the south. we hope it continues to do so to get the heavy snowfall totals away. but still predicting 18 to 24 more inches, additional inches on top of that 5 feet of snow. also off lake michigan seeing good amounts of snow. the bigger story for a lot of people is that it's cold and it's been cold. we will see changes as we head into the weekend. we're going to get this jet stream to push to the north. when that happens, all this warm flow will come in from the gulf of mexico. there will be a catch with this. we'll see those warm temperatures, but also through the weekend it's going to be pretty wet in this area. so a double edged sword, but i think most people will take that rebound in temperatures. take a place like washington, d.c. we're below that today. tomorrow only 37 for a high. but here we get into the warm sector of sunday and monday. into the 70s by monday. it does drop off a cliff after that, but we focus on the positive there. getting back into the 70s by later on next week. guys? >> keith, that snow is -- they

don't even appreciate it in buffalo. it's wasted. could you put it out like right in summit county in colorado? could you work on that for me? >> in the ski zone. the crazy thing is i lived in maine, vermont, all these states. i've only seen -- the max snow i've seen is 38 inches. can't even fathom 65. >> i saw a picture of a guy who opened his door and the had opened his door and carved a refrigerator in the snow out there and stocked it. >> we'd be set on the base out in vale. >> the only thing is when they put wine in there is, is it red wine? you're not supposed to chill that. >> i don't know. i didn't look that closely. all right. keith, thank you. we do have some disturbing results on the latest crash test study conducted by the insurance institute for highway safety. if you or someone you know drives a minivan, then you don't

want to miss these results. phil lebeau joins us with more on this. people drive minivans in large part because they think they are so safe. i remember an ad from a few years ago with kids who said things like would you run into a burning building for me, would you fight a grizzly bear for me, would you drive a minivan. >> and that's the perception that's out there. that minivans are among the safest vehicles on the road. well, the insurance institute for highway safety did this small overlap frontal crash test. this is a vehicle that hits something in the front corner panel of the driver side at 40 miles per hour. among the most deadly crashes on the road. and the results? only two of the tested got a good or acceptable rating. the three other minivans that were tested, these are disturbing results. you had the chrysler town & country as well as the dodge

caravan getting poor ratings. nissan quest also got a poor rating. the comments coming from the insurance institute after they did these tests when they had to pry the dummy -- i'm not making that word up. they said they had to pry the dummy out of the minivan. a real person experiencing this crash would be lucky to ever walk normally again. and guys, i talked with mr. zubi last night. he said they had to cut the seat out. then they had to pry the dummy out. even then they had to get a crowbar to get the foot of the dummy out of it. he said it was among the worst crash test that he's ever seen. we did reach out to nissan and chrysler for a comment regarding the test results. they both point out their minivans get good ratings in or crashes. that they will take these rultss and incorporate them into design changes that need to be made in the future. but clearly this is a disturbing set of crash test video and you

see how much the dummies moved around by the small overlap crash test. >> is that because the design of minivans is inherently weak in that corner or something? >> no. nope. nope, nope, nope. i asked him about that. he said this is a classic case where not to get too technical here, but that front corner bottom of the driver's side door was pushed in two feet. two feet. into the driver compartment so that it pinned the dummy into its seat. he said this is just a case where the design on these models, very poor. >> it's just weird it would be minivans in general and not other cars. >> no, it's happened with other ones, becky. they're not the only vehicles where they've had poor results. there have been poor results for small overlap tests with other vehicles as well. what stands out here is the common tear regarding the nissan quest. the insurance institute, i've done a number of stories with them. generally a conservative organization. for them to come out and say you may not walk normally again if

you experience this type of a crash, that's significant. >> just to clarify. you don't think there's anything inherent about the design? this is where i think becky was getting to because the snout -- i don't know what you call it. the snout of most minivans is pretty short. >> no, it's not. >> there's not as much room as if you had a car or a big jeep or something. >> right. no. i asked him about that. he said that's not the case at all. you could see this type of an accident depending on the design of the vehicle happen with a sedan, a compact car, small suv. it's just a case where with these three vehicles the design in terms o the frame or drivers door, it didn't hold up well in these crash tests. >> does that mean it'd be eventually more expensive to insure these cars? >> that's hard to say. i've talked to people in the insurance institute as well as the insurance industry. they do incorporate these crash

tests into their evaluations of insuring these vehicles. but i've never been able to get a clear correlation that if you have a vehicle that has poor crash test results that you will pay more for your insurance. >> phil, thank you. >> you bet. and coming up next, a face-off over legalizing sports betting in new jersey. and it's going to head to court today. the hearing comes just one week after the commissioner of the nba penned an op-ed supporting legalized sports betting. the big money implications after the break. plus another big threat to the holiday shopping season has nothing to do this time with the weather. that's coming up later on "squawk box." ♪ for tapping into a wealth of experience...

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now are indicating lower. it's like european issues. pmis. i don't know. baek to weakness. better last week. >> all week long you've watched the german markets, french mashlts rising significantly on the idea germany is doing better than expected. >> i don't like getting wagged around by the tail. i'm sorry. >> you're the dog.

big dog. >> big dog. and delta is reportedly buying 50 wide bodied air bus jets. i don't even like the term wide body right now after that pizza i ate yesterday. that was a mistake, guys. that was a big -- why did you not say something to me? >> how many slices did you have? >> i had three. and the skinny slice are 250. >> 250 calories. >> so the regular must be 400. i really shouldn't have eaten anything after the show yet at all. anyway, speaking of wide bodies, the order is worth roughly $14 billion at these prices. now we'll get to the battle over sports gambling. morgan brennan joins us now. are you a gambling -- do you like to gamble? coming on the show is a gamble swb it not? >> my husband likes to gamble. i like to go and rein him in a little bit. >> take the debit card away. >> take the credit card away. the debit card runs out at some

point. >> after the third trip to the atm. >> ten bucks to take out a hundred bucks. >> you say i'm bringing -- for me i'm bringing $15. when i lose that -- >> 15 bucks? so you play at the penny slots. >> okay, ten. >> multiply that by ten. >> so what's happening? >> all right. well, so today a federal judge will hear arguments on whether to allow sports betting in new jersey. on the one side you have five sports organizations including the nfl and the nba that want the federal ban on wagering in the state upheld. on the other you have new jersey and racetrack momoth park. they're trying to circumvent this activity. so today the judge is widely expected to make it permanent. the next stop for this case, the third circuit court of appeals which has ruled against the state's previous efforts. nonetheless, new jersey's

fighting for this again to help its ailing gaming industry. especially where you can see in this video right here workers protests on the boardwalk as the trump taj mahal is to close. this hearing comes just days after adam silver's op-ed voicing support. >> that's kind of the tricky -- the tipping point for this whole thing. he knows on a federal level it's not really likely to get passed. it's a good way to say you're for something without being tied to it. >> exactly right. there's no way this happens. come on. >> can i read this and introduce you. >> okay, go ahead. big dog. >> almighty. let's talk more about why the commissioner has come out of sports gambling and why he's in a league of his own. joining us now is dave briggs. and patrick risch is a professor

of economics at webster university. i'm sorry, patrick, this guy is -- it's champing at the bit, actually? >> chomping. who knew? >> assuming you know anything -- >> we sports guys know nothing, big dog. >> i think of adam silver as really squeaky clean after the way he handled some things. is this surprising to you? or does it just make sense? >> it was very surprising to see him be so progressive, come out in favor legalizing and monitoring and regulating sports gambling. but it was really short sided. and becky's point, we're going to get federal legislation on sports gambling. the sixers will win the championship before we get federal legislation on sports gambling. >> that's cold. >> we can't get legislation on

anything with -- >> keep going. >> anyway, the point being that we're not going to get it. we're going to get this on a state-to-state level. that's the only shot we've got. he's got to come out in support of what can actually happen. it's like marijuana legalization. there's no way you're going to get federal legislation pased on this. let's be realistic and work within the confines that the system gives us. >> that all make sense, patrick? >> it's such a fascinating economic debate, guys. thanks for having me on. you look at the one side, you have $400 billion spent on gambling in the united states according to the american gaming association. and if a lot of that money, in fact, the estimate is about $380 billion of it is under the table. so why not allow states to be able to generate some of that tax revenue. on the flip side, i will say that any time you see any state organization estimate that the tax revenues from gaming will be "x," it's probably going to be less than that because some people are going to shift their

spending from other forms of entertainment and even basic needs towards gambling. there will be net gains, but just not as large as some of the estimates you may see. >> in the past, i kind of understood that you don't want -- that you don't want any sports to be compromised by the idea that something is not pure competition. my point is if you leave it illegal, all the guys that might try to do that are the ones controlling it. it seems more likely -- >> who will start betting if it's legalized tomorrow? people like me. people who will drop the occasional 40 bucks. >> you build build your organized crime. you won't need it anymore. >> those people are already gambling. the degenerates. >> the degenerates. >> they're already in vegas. >> so there's no impact? >> i think the bigger issue is -- >> does it put the bookies out

of business? >> yeah. but who cares? that's illegal. >> could clean it up quite a bit. >> adam silver what he said a couple months back is bigger than this op-ed. he said that he thinks sports gambling could actually help interest in basketball. and that's in stark contrast to what his predecessor david stern said about sports gambling. he acknowledged it helps sports. >> patrick, i can tell you that he's right because final four -- i'm already thinking about it. and all i got to do -- i don't even have any money on it when i fill out that bracket. but i watch like every game. i watch the 15s play. the 14s. i watch them all. >> it's technically illegal if there's money on the line. >> but it becomes much more interesting if you have a stake in it. i'm like dying at the end of every game. for the last two minutes. >> i'll interject that the

technology is such that it's a big plus. i think going forward. i see tax revenues increase. i think the technology is really key here in trying to monitor that behavior. >> what's happening in other countries? >> well, look. >> do they generally have good sports in other countries. >> soccer, football. >> but the nfl is playing, what? three games a year in the nfl. they want a team in london by 2022. how are you going to have a team in london where sports gambling is legal and have the rest of the league not be able to place sports bets? you're going to have a big problem if you're the nfl. >> we both went to boulder.

as far as i know marijuana was legal when i went there in the '70s. >> it appeared that way. >> but if we can legalize marijuana, can't we legalize gambling? seriously. >> again, i think the biggest concerns, you've got a situation where there's a lot of people out there that still have concerns about the social costs, the degenerates as was mentioned on the stage. will those costs lead to, you know, state social welfare costs going up. but i believe, again, at the end of the day that it's a little bit overblown. you can go on the street. i think here in the states i wouldn't be surprised within the next decade that you do see it legalized at the federal level. but i think in the short-term at the state level is most appropriate. >> can you bet on whether there

will be a goal in the game? >> you can bet on your smartpho smartphone. >> will there be a goal -- >> like in the next five seconds. >> no. but in the next five weeks will there be a goal in soccer. >> big soccer fan, are you? there were two legislators from new jersey who tried to introduce legislation on sports gambling. absolutely zero interest in congress to get any meaningful legislation written let alone passed. forget about it. it's got to be at the sate level. >> i do a little briggs backup because i haven't talked to you in awhile. i have other questions for you. i don't think we have time. >> i'm sure you do, joe. >> the nfl, it's like on any given week we have no idea, do we? >> none. look at what the rams did do the denver broncos last week dismantling them. it looks like green bay and the patriots, who were both buried look like by far the two best teams in the league. >> if romo is with -- is back

with dallas, they're good. >> they're a good team, but can they go to lambeau field if they have to and win in december? >> did you think the colts were good for awhile? >> the colts are pretty good, but can they stack up against the league's best? not right now. >> then college hoops. i thought kansas was good. >> kentucky. that's the best team i've seen in ten years. >> really, pat? really? >> they have a front line that's taller than 28 of the 30 nba teams. so they're looking good right now. to make a franchise like kansas look amateurish the other night, it was quite something. so i think kentucky is looking strong. >> they beat the sixers. >> kentucky has too much in that state. why? >> 11 blocked shots. let's go shovel snow in buffalo. ten bucks an hour. free tickets. who's going? pat, you coming? >> i'm going stay here in los angeles, but thanks, guys. >> let's go. >> patrick, thank you. dave, thank you. good to see you. >> thank you, big dog.

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check out, please, some stocks to watch this morning. william sonoma reporting results of top consensus. citing growth in e-commerce. l brands posted a better than expected 43% increase in quarterly profit.

but the victoria's secret parent offered a forecast low of expectations. and keurig green mountain is forecasting current estimates that are below wall street. current results that are expected to be below. the company is dealing with increased competition as well as rising coffee prices. >> okay. and a huge loss today for the entertainment world. mike nichols passed away last night of cardiac arrest. mike is one of only a handful to win an emmy, a grammy, an oscar, and a tony. he is survived by his wife diane sawyer of 26 years. he was 83 years old. when we return -- "primary colors" right there. >> and channelling bill clinton there. >> he was an extraordinary director. >> "working girl" has been

playing a lot lately. one of his movies too. >> we will remember him. when we return, we will talk about what wall street is watching in washington. the takata air bag debate happening on capitol hill. senator john thune will be talking to us and taking part in those hearings. plus the immigration debate about to get into overdrive. we have all that next. and then later is this arctic blast going to be a big threat to holiday sales? and there's another retail danger zone that has nothing to do with weather. we'll tell you about it when we return. location. location. (shouting) location. here's the location that matters the most. here. or here. or here. it's wherever this is. to get customers to come here and stay here, you're going to need an app that connects to all your systems. so they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. before the competition does. it's tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. today there's a new way to work.

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look at what's keeping investors up at night. that could change as we head into the end of the year. immigration front and center. the president readies a primetime speech. we will speak to senator john thune about that and his big hearing today on the takata recall. and the snow ball effect of bad weather on shipping to trucks to store closings to delays. why you may want to start shopping now to make sure your gifts are under the tree in time as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. the new york national guard arriving in buffalo last night. more than 200 members of the guard are equipped to assist local officials. storms have already dropped nearly six feet of snow and two feet more are expected. check out ralph wilson stadium. look at this. where the buff wloe bills play, there is an estimated 22,000 tons of snow in that stadium. sunday's game against the new york jets is on for now. bills are offering 10 bucks an hour and free tickets to the game. depending on how things work out. >> it's not just the field, you

have to get it off of every seat. the whole way through the stands. >> if anybody knows, what do they normally do? >> you don't get six feet. >> in the next half hour, why waiting for black friday deals may be getting a little too late. becky was telling us she's already starting to buy gifts. a look at how this weather could affect shopping and shipping. we will have a snap poll later in the show as well. so stay tuned for that. >> you guys don't get it. you have wives to do all these things for you. there are a lot of presents to be bought. >> i buy but at the last minute and have them shipped. >> not for everybody. if you do that, you saw what happened last year. >> this is true. president obama will hold a primetime speak tonight on immigration. a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll out says americans are split on this topic.

we'll be speaking to senator john thune in a few minutes. also we're getting two economic data points. and october's consumer price index. also best buy investors cheering this morning. the electronic retailer posted better than expected quarterly results. came in with stronger than expected earnings, stronger than expected revenue. and same store sales were strong this morning. take a look at shares you'll see right now. that shares of best buy are up close to 10%. >> that's extraordinary. we are less than 90 minutes away from e the opening bell on wall street. the futures right now, take a look. see how the markets will open up this morning. dow looks like it would open 64 points down. s&p down seven. nasdaq close to 15 points. the latest purchasing managing index coming in below forecast. few stocks to watch this morning. michaels beating by a nickel. revenue also topped estimates. but they did see a drop in

profit margins. revenue outlook from sales force disappointed investors. the world's biggest maker being hurt by the strong dollar. and dollar general speaking of the dollar says it's talking to the ftc about how many stores it's going to have to sell to receive approval for its acquisition of family dollar. fdo has packed a lower cash and stock offer from dollar tree and family dollar announcing it's postponing a shareholder meeting until december 23rd. the president set for a primetime speech on executive actions. a new poll shows that immigration is putting the president and democrats in a risky political territory at this point. jon harwood joins us with more on the poll. what else did you find? >> well, becky, this immigration action that the president is taking poses an interesting question for the administration and for republicans. because if you look at the broad goals the president is trying to

vindicate with this order, not directly because legislation is the best way to do that, but when you try to give people protection, some way to stay in the country legally, we asked in our poll do you favor a way. 57% says yes i do. if you further pathway to citizenship conditioned on paying fines, security check, back taxes, that number rises to 74%. those are things that were done in the senate bill, the bipartisan bill which passed. but now with the demise of that bill, obama's taking executive action. when we asked about executive action per se, should the president do this on his own? 38% say they approve. 48% don't. so the president faces a difficult situation where he's moving toward the direction of public opinion, but the way he's doing it is not supported. that's why you're going to have

a collision course between the new republican majority in the senate, the republican majority in the house, and the president and public opinions, part of what's going to settle how this turns out, how far republicans push the reaction to him. >> look. the president himself doesn't take any political risk. he never has to run for office again. the question, i wonder, is this something that could backfire in terms of what he's trying to do, the people he's trying to help when you take positive reaction from the american public and turn it into something where they are not going to want to see this ever get done. not on a permanent basis after it goes through this politically. could he actually change the course of the way the american people feel about this issue? >> well, he could, sure. that depends on how this goes down with the public. but i wouldn't say he has a risk. but this reaction to this, how he deals with the congress, is

going to determine how effective he is. he's got two years left. he's going to have to try to work with republicans. they're going to have to try to work with him. and who gets the upper hand in that ongoing wrestling match has very large stakes for everything else on his agenda. >> okay. jon, thank you for that. we're going to continue part of this conversation because in addition to immigration, the deadly takata air bag problem also front and center this morning on capitol hill. senator john thune is taking part in those hearings just two hours from now. he's ranking member of the commerce committee and chairman of the senate republican conference. good morning to you, senator. i want to talk about immigration in just a moment. but i want to start with takata since that's what you're going to be focusing on this morning and a new bill you're going to be introducing relating to whistle blowers. when you think about the problems we've seen with takata and frankly with all of the automobile makers. we seem to hear about problem after problem after problem. where is the regulation and who do you fault? obviously the automobile companies, but why aren't we getting to the stuff earlier?

>> good morning, guys. that's a really good question. i think one of the issues that we've had at least for the past year is we haven't had an administ administrator at nitsa. we've been trying to get somebody appointed to that system. but they're the oversight agency. we need to make sure they're doing their jobs. the terrible deaths and tragic injuries associated with the takata industries issue is another example of why we need to have that oversight. and the hearing today is about that particular issue. of course in the wake of general motors recalling 30 million vehicles and now this defective air bag actually affecting ten automanufacturers, it's time for congress to get more involved and more engaged. the legislation i would introduce would incentivize at the automanufacturers to come forward. if they think that there is a violation or some defect that

they can bring forward and there's an ultimate settlement that comes from that. they would be able to receive part of that, up to 30% of pipt we think we've got to create better safeguards and try to prevent these things from happening rather than doing the -- assessing fines afterwards after it's too late where we created serious bodily harm for people in this country. >> senator, besides whistle blowers, how do you incentivize companies to come forward? one of the things we're learning is that companies are looking -- they're seeing what the cost of coming forward is. >> right. and i think that there's got to be some -- when mary barra testified, she talked about creating a culture of safety. i think they have got to get focussed on that. we've got to intercept this ahead of time. if they realize these things will be caught ahead of time rather than after the fact, i think there are going to be a lot more incentivized to take steps earlier on to prevent these things from happening. so we've got to find a way to create intervention earlier on

in this process before it gets to the point of where you have to go through recalls and fines and everything else. >> i want to turn the conversation back to the issue of immigration that jon harwood was talking about and what we're going to be hearing from the president tonight. i assume you are very much on the other side of it. the question is what can you do about it? >> that's a good question. i'm not sure anybody knows exactly what that answer is. obviously we disagree and we disagree in a very aggressive way with what the president is trying to do. he on 22 different occasions says he doesn't have the legal authority, he doesn't have the constitutional authority to do this. and one thing people forget, the president's been president for almost six years now. for two of those years they had huge majorities in congress. they had a supermajority in the united states senate, a filibuster-proof majority. they could have done anything they wanted to on immigration and didn't do it. now he's blaming republicans for

this and says that's why he has to use this. the american people disagree with that. they sent that message on election day. i think the president ought to work with congress instead of against congress and try to go about this in the right way. i think this is a big mistake. and it will make more difficult getting things done on other issues. not just immigration as we go forward. >> senator, you just heard the nbc poll results. nbc news/"wall street journal" w poll results found that 75% of americans are for a path to citizenship if it includes paying back taxes and fines and stuff like that. are you in favor of an eventual path to citizenship? >> look, the way i've approached this issue is we can't solve the legal immigration issue until we solve the illegal immigration issue. we've got to deal with the verifying the work place. and some things we know we can

fix. until we do those things, i don't think we're going to have the confidence of the american people to deal with the people here legally. but there is a way to address people here in this country illegally. i frankly don't think the citizenship is the answer. there's probably a way to get legal status. but the way to do it isn't by executive action. you need to do this through the political process we have here. >> real quick, business issue. hv-1 vee sas. we don't know what we're going to hear from the president tonight. there is a thought there would be an inexclusion on that. where do you stand on that? >> there's broad bipartisan agreement we need to open that up. merit based, skill based immigration and opening up more opportunities in those particular industries is something i think there's broad agreement on. my point is why don't we do those things? let's do the things we can do. then we can tackle the more difficult issues. but we're not going to have trust in the american people if we don't do the basic things.

>> senator john thune, thank you for joining us. good luck today. >> thank you. we're going to talk about how investors feel about the markets heading into the end of the year. we talk investor sentiment and the inflation fears next. and still to come this morning, inflation data. the data is going to be released along with jobless claims. and why waiting for black friday to shop may be a bit too late. plus jim cramer from the new york stock exchange. "squawk box" returns in just a moment. for practically just your signature, you could drive home for the holidays in a german-engineered volkswagen. like the sporty, advanced new jetta... and the 2015 motor trend car of the year all-new golf. if you're wishing for a new volkswagen this season... just about all you need is a finely tuned... pen. hurry in and get zero due at signing, zero down, zero deposit, and zero first month's payment on select new volkswagen models. e

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volatility is heading back more towards normal. i think the trend is up, but it's going to be a bumpy ride in the last couple years. >>. >> telling us investment could be in for a rougher ride despite the low volatile till we've seen. joining nous wu the latest results of the survey. some of the things we've seen from some of our more astute

market watchers that unlike some previous fairly significant breaks and we had a 9% s&p break that the complacency came back quickly this time. that's a red flag for some that likes to see doubt. it's a wall of worry. and people feel pretty good right now. and that came back quicker than in recent breaks. >> it did come by really -- it did come back very quickly. we did see a big shift in the pendulum. i think there are a lot of people who are fearful we'd get a big correction. when it turned out to be pretty shallow, i think there's just a big sigh of relief and we're now seeing that reflected in the numbers. where we're seeing people realize we're not going to have this big drop. it's been postponed. and now they're seeing the market rally. and i think that's got people very encouraged.

and certainly has added back a level of complacency we're not going to see a big drop. >> why aren't you seeing this? it should worry people, should it not, it didn't work? the correction didn't work. it didn't move any stock from where it normally does. don't we need to test those lows to make sure it's clear sailing? >> i'm not so sure we do. when we look at valuations, they're not extremely high. the s&p 500 is trading high. certainly not cheap. if yourself an investor it's a tough market. but there was this fear we were going to get a bigger drop. now we're seeing that go away. if we look forward, particularly last one reach about the history of the survey, that high of

level sentiment in the past has been vold gi flat markets. a level of zero. some of the gains may have been reflected in the market. >> it could be consolidation. one is you said the sentiment has gotten bullish as it's been over the last 26 years you said it's only been -- it's in the top 50 for how bullish it is. >> correct. and so that's one indicator. but people were expecting worse. that occurred to them. >> one of the things that has been pointed out again and again is that sense that 2008, 2009 period, we benefitted from everyone worrying that we're going to revisit that for the last five years. that's been in the back of everyone's mind. that, you know, and the longer that lasted, the better it was for the market climbing a wall

of worry. maybe we're finally getting to the point where the middle part or the waning part of the bull market where first it's disbelief, you know, then it becomes you sort of accept it. but think it's just about over. then you get to the point where everybody says wow it's good. then you got to get in here. and that's usually at the end or the eighth or ninth inning of this. you don't think we're in the eighth or ninth inning now? >> when i talk to individual investors, they're still concerned. this week's special question asked about the state of the state of the retail consumer. a lot of people thought the average consumer is doing better because of price. i talked to a gentleman yesterday trying to figure out what to do with his money. he's in his 90s and says i don't want to stay too much in the market, but bonds aren't paying anything either. what do i do? stocks still look attractive. >> good. well, maybe we'll do some

backing and build up some negative and then maybe get anoth another. low rates, reason to think they're stale low with europe and corporate profits includesing. the consumer getting stronger. there's a lot of positive things. it just gets a little nervous when everyone knows all this stuff. >> yeah. absolutely. you do always worry about there being too much bull sentiment. what i'm not getting is i'm not getting those calls. i've been out of the market. i'm not getting those calls. i'm not getting that sense. i think a lot of people see the average person struggling because of the economy. i think people are encouraged by the market, but we're not seeing a repeat of what we saw in 1999. >> see, andrew. with a sweater, you can't really see your -- the main part of your tie. if you use the bow tie, then you -- well, the bow tie with

the sweater is a good look. >> we have a new -- wow. they even made a new sweater animation. >> did you think about a bow tie? what about one of those bows. >> i have a bow tie. should i try that later this week? for the holidays. >> that was my wife's idea. i have to give her credit for it. >> i'm with her in that particular case. i'm with it. i'm down with that. it's cold out there. >> i like that. >> thank you, charles. now, this music -- this music i can buy in. >> little mr. rogers. >> yeah. >> makes me feel happy. >> makes you feel happy. mr. rogers makes you feel happy. coming up, how much will your thanksgiving turkey dinner cost you? we're going to talk bird inflation. >> this video is back. >> speaking of inflation, october consumer price index data is just ahead.

here are e the futures ahead of those numbers. all could change at 8:30. dow jones looks like it would open down 60 points. s&p 500 down seven points. we'll be back in just a moment. ♪ friday night, buddy.

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year's thanksgiving meal. according to the american form bureau federation, the price for thanksgiving dinner is expected to rise only slightly this year. clocking in at $49.41 for ten people. think of that. can't even eat at mcdonald's for $4.90. that's up from last year, but it's still lower than it was in the year 2012. >> that's kind of baffling. i guess it explains about why the fed is concerned. >> do not try this at home. i didn't know what i was doing. i mean -- >> you did it completely wrong. >> i did. i said you got to pack it. you do not pack it. >> that's how you get salmonella poisoning. >> i asked the turkey to cough when i did that too. you don't need to do that typically. i still don't know which end that was. >> i do. >> was it the end i'm worried

about? >> yeah. >> it was? >> uh-huh. >> i don't even though. >> the legs were right there. >> don't they have a head. don't the legs go back like that? >> yeah. >> those are wings, those were legs? >> the wings are up here. the legs are down here. >> would you know your way around a turkey. >> have you stuffed one? >> i have. >> have you stuffed a bird? >> not well. when we come back, another measure of inflation. the cpi numbers are out. also jobless claims. and then last year's winter, it wreaked havoc on the shipping industry leaving many retailers in the cold when it came to filling shelves with hot items. have they learned from winters passed or will it be the same this year. right now look at u.s. equity futures. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. as we wait for jobless claims and cpi, let's look at stocks on the move. after declaring a special dividend, that follows a leverage recapitalization of the clip maker.

also check out shares of caesars entertainment. >> equipment maker. >> we are just a few seconds away from jobless claims and october cpi. rick santelli is standing by in chicago. take it away, my friend. >> a litany of data coming out. of course october's read on cpi headline numbers, a goose egg, unchanged. even a goose egg is a bit higher than expectations in which you're looking for down 1.10. also hotter on core. the food and aggressive energy pricing. we're up .2 versus up .1. another bit hotter. absolutely no revisions from top to bottom. if we look at year over year headline, core 1.8. 1.7 on the headline is exactly where we've been. a little hotter than expectations. the 1.8 on the core is .1

higher. let's look at initial jobless claims, shall we? 291,000 means a drop of 2,000. not a rise of one because that 290 last week now stands at 293. continuing claims hovering at 2.33 down from a slightly revised 2.4 million. we were basically on the cusp of challenging what looks to be 18 sessions closing in a very compact range of 230 to 238. but i see that we're moving back up towards 233. so a couple of basis points. very similar to the reaction in a hotter than expected ppi. we see a couple of extra tenths. the economic communities seem to be whining a bit on ppi release. because of the new way that numbers are calculated. that's the way it is. sometimes, you know, if you want to include the service sectors our very good friend and smart guy says some of what's going on in the service sector is a lot

stick yer when it comes to prices. we all know what's going on in japan and china, the most recent pass of their data not looking great. but don't worry. the fed unlike the last set of minutes doesn't seem to think that the globe kind of going flatline is going to have much of an impact on the u.s. i sperpersonally beg to differ. back to you. >> what do you think explains the tight trading range? >> i think the treasury market is looking at many dynamics that affect the u.s. economy that aren't going to be changing significantly any time soon. our economy is great and even with all the saddle bags, it's done better than many. we've had that many times before. but as the journal happens to point out today in several op-eds, the saddle bags are large. and the issues like regulation, how much it costs business. remember, there's good registration and then politically motivated regulation. some are slightly different to

change the structure of europe and japan. all this is slow moving. i think the underperformance of bench mark baselines of growth historically whether in the u.s. or around the globe and the air of globalization is going to be on the lacking side. and i don't think between now and the end of the year they're going to change much. i think what set off the tight range is pretty simple. october 15th, a little over a month ago. we had the capitulation trade. i think that created the current environment that's going to last throughout the end of the year. >> thanks, risk. steve leisman is here. he has more on the numbers. you're digging through the cpi numbers. >> i am up to my neck here in this data here, becky. a couple things. first of all, i want to go back to the claims number. there was a -- the number of continuing claims shot up to 2.4 million. and people were wondering what's going on there. well, it shot back down to below where it was before the rise up.

so it's now 2.3 million, well control controll controlled on the way down. the claims number right in that 290 range. it looks like we had been understating it. but 290 seems about right. and i think the fed is going to be fine with this. we talked the whole week about this issue. the pivot from inflation being the big indicator for when the fed raises rates now. not employment anymore. because that slack is diminishing, they've made this change now. so what we're looking for is we know headline prices are going to come down. rick said correctly the headline was not down as much as expected. so where are we? we have the 0.2% increase in the core excluding energy. >> which is the biggie. >> which tells us so far that the price decline in oil is not showing up in the core and that the year over year rate is remaining at 1.7%. so no sense at all of that

disinflation or deflation in this states that would move or change fed policy. but i do want to talk about something near and dear to this show's heart. >> which is? >> bacon. we've been tracking bacon prices and we're calling this pig-flation. these are the prices. pork chops and ham up over 11%. this is september. >> why? >> and if you look at the next chart -- a disease. then you wonder, well, should fed policy affect pork -- it should. but you had this rise up. there you go. there's your last two years of bacon and breakfast sausage prices. they're starting to come down a little bit. >> i thought we were coming out the other side of that disease. >> that's what i'm showing you here. i'm looking here when you just asked me for my comment on the other thing, i was looking up the pork prices in the october report. i'll get those two you. what i think was interested when

i went and looked at this is how bacon defied economic theory. >> because? >> people didn't change their habits one bit. no matter what happened to the price of bacon, they kept buying as much. i think i saw that with this price increase, bacon sales went up 11%. you're supposed to -- do you like that turkey bacon? >> no. >> it depends. >> they kept buying bacon. it's another theory along with monetary aggregates, central banks, we got to throw it out. >> you're not telling me anything new here at all. >> i know. i know. but the point is that they kept buying it, joe. >> of course. there is no substitute. >> there is no substitute. >> i can't believe pork chops are up 11%. >> you're right. we're sort of on the other side of that. and that's something to watch for. because the food prices in general having up 3%, 3%-plus. what we did see this morning getting back a little more

seriously here was a 0.2% rise in residence and owner equivalent rents which is the home cost index in the cpi. and that's sort of normal. mostly of what i saw -- i'm looking for this table quickly here. there it is. what we see here is 0.2% on housing costs. apparel down. airline fares taking a tick up after having been down two months in a row. 2.4% in the month of october. new vehicles unchanged. >> i didn't say anything when foreigners buy drug companies or when foreigners buy automotive. >> but when they bought the pork -- >> i said we got to talk about this. we've got to alert the authorities. but that's where you got to draw the line. >> it's something we're monitoring on your behalf. >> thank you nap is funny though. totally inelastic no matter what happens. >> it defies -- i guess that's like, you know, water would be

or any other staple. in america i guess bacon is a staple. >> thank you, steve. >> my pleasure. when we come back this morning, how worried are retailers about the weather? travel conditions not just for shoppers. it can leave stores spinning their wheels. why it's a good idea to start shopping before black friday. before we head to break, take a look at what's trending on twitter right now.

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welcome back to "squawk box." a sunny day shaping up in new york city this morning. and did you know that sunny days make traders bullish? that's according to a new paper titled "weather induced mood." investors in stocks returns that data found that sunnier data led to investor optimism and increased buying. so far the mood not so bullish this morning. look at futures right now. dow looks like it would open off about 66 points. i always thought that "squawk box" put people in a sunny mood and you would think every day would be a bullish day. >> can't be christmas every day. >> it can't be. winter weather wreaking havoc across the country. let's get more from the weather channel's keith carson. >> let's look at what's going to happen the next week or so. today, i don't need to tell you it's cold in the great lakes where they're kicking out from

five feet of snow. if you're thinking of shopping early, looks good sunday. what we're showing you is 32 degree line. to the north of it is all of the cold air. everything not shaded is above freezing. as we head into sunday, much of the country into good shape. as we get close tore black friday, you see this what we call trough digging back down across the eastern seaboard. and a lot of these purples show you we will have cold weather back in the great lakes for black friday into the northeast and maybe getting down into the mid-south. that part we're confident about. the other part is more difficult which is the prescription. keep in mind we're eight days out at this point. so forecasting in that range not always fantastic. we do think there'll be a front down here through dallas, make some showers there. and where it interacts with that colder air, looking for a chance of snow. staying to the south. but a good half of the country relatively quiet. so we'll continue to watch that, of course, like i said still eight days out. so going to have to watch it and see if it evolves.

>> the lake-effect has been so particularly brutish because it's still early in then you haven't seen the great lakes freeze over so it leads to more snow. >> it does. any time we get a cold flow over the lakes this time of year -- keep in mind a lot of the lakes don't freeze until february. we've got a ways to go. >> stupid lake-effect. keith, thank you. check out the front page of today's financial times. this is what the rails are dealing with across parts of the country. these are conditions making it so difficult to ship goods. leads to the question of just how worried retailers are when it comes to scenes like this over the next ten days. joining us right now is jan niffen and paul walsh. by the way, wie want to hear frm you. have you started your shopping yet? log on and take our snap poll. in the meantime, let's start with the question of the

weather. this is a scary start to things for people who got shellacked last year can they expect more of this? >> i don't think so. we're looking at a holiday shopping season that's going to be more benign. i think it'll be on net actually milder than the weather we had last year. i think there'll be fewer sort of traffic limiting events. based primarily on statistics and regressing back which typically happens with weather. all in all, i'm pretty bullish for retail weather as we go into the season. i think this polar plunge we're seeing right now is really happening just in time especially for department store retailers who basically had a little bit of the -- >> let me ask you this. obviously i'm not a meteorologist, but the farmer's almanac says this year could be worse than last year. what do you know that they didn't? >> i'd say trust but verify with

the farmer's almanac. it's an interesting publication they put out. we're expecting we may see a colder than normal winter. but relative to last year, it's very unlikely that we'll see conditions at our worst. so we don't expect it to be more polar vortexy this year. i just made that word up. >> i like it. >> overall i think -- i'm actually thinking it's going to be a pretty strong holiday season. and i think it's going to be stronger this year for items. and traffic will likely be up. the likelihood of seeing the same frequency of bad weather type events as last year is lower. it doesn't mean, however, that they won't happen. we will still see snow and cold weather. >> jan, are you worried by any of these snowy days that you see at this point? does any of this change your mind about that? >> no. right now i'm doing my happy dance over what i just heard. it couldn't be better to have

somebody tell me that the weather is not going to be as bad as last year. i've been saying all along we can't have the worst weather in 50 years again this year. >> worst weather in 51 years. >> i don't think so. odds are with us. what happened to far is not a big deal. we've got this really cold weather. everybody who didn't have their coat, didn't have their gloves and hat they're out buying them. they'll be buying them through the holiday. this is about as good as it gets when you have this big bad cold snap. >> i've been in the market for all of those things that maybe i would have waited longer to buy. >> i went through that search already. i had to find my hat, gloves, scarf the other day. everybody is doing the same thing. they'll be out buying them because people need to replenish that stuff. >> one thing you did warn us about is the west coast.

best buy came out this morning with its own note and the list of concerns for the fourth quarter, this is one of the factors they mentioned about not being able to get things because of the west coast ports. when will we know if this is resolved? >> ann taylor told us it cost them $8 million in the third quarter. if you're a retailer, you're going somebody actually put out a number that's scary. but for the big retailers, they've been managing this process. the contract expired in july. so they've been fighting this battle all along. so a lot of product has been shifted to the east coast. the two canadian ports are totally full right now because of diverted product. you have to remember, it takes 21 to 28 days to get from there to here. >> you don't have it by now, you're not getting it. >> basically if you don't have it by now, you're not getting it. there will be some come in during the season. but inventories will peak here on black friday. then they'll be drawn down as we go forward. anybody that had anything that

was really christmas specific that wasn't going to be worth anything, say, january 5th, they've got it. and they've got it in stores. and some people were at a conference here in new york. morgan stanley did did a conference. saying i needed this for christmas. want to make sure the port strike didn't affect me. i don't think it's going to be a big deal, but it's a big enough deal they went toe the president and said we'd like intervention on the west coast. i think that's mostly because they're scared to death there would be a complete shutdown on the strike. that could wreck the spring season because product wouldn't get in. the last time we had a port shutdown, it cost a billion dollars a day to the economy. that's mostly coming out of those retail sales. and so, yes, we're all really concerned about it. i don't think it's a big deal for christmas, but it's clearly going to make things marginally more expensive from the point of view of the retailer for christmas. things could be a little slower

that are coming in at the last minute. and we could have a few stock outs from it. am i worried about it? no. i think it's going to be a great christmas selling season. i think it's already started. we've seen a good first week of november. but, yes, you know, we're retailers. we worry about everything. and since 90% of what you sell comes from some place else, it's got to get through a port. >> jan, thank you for coming in today. paul, it's great talking to you. and i really hope you are right. >> count on it. >> okay. thank you. coming up, why koegoldman ss just fired two employees and how it could affect future people. plus what happens to this guy going to have you scratching your head. that story and more after the break. ♪ there's confidence...

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welcome back, everybody. let's look at this incredible surveillance footage of a pedestrian who was lucky as he narrowly escaped being crushed by two vehicles. he was walking at an

intersection. two vehicles entered the crossroads from different sides. they swerved to avoid a collision and turned into each other. the pedestrian was able to jump out of harm's way in time to avoid being crushed. talk about cat-like reflexes. >> use the crosswalk. >> was that a crosswalk? >> no. >> you're right. >> right in the middle. >> there are no crosswalks there. >> i would be mad if i were the guys in the car. >> goldman sachs fired two staff members after a junior employee passed confidential information to a senior colleague in the investment bank. the junior employee previously worked at the fed. goldman sachs says the situation was immediately reported to the compliance team. the fed reviewing its policies, promising to make sure the rules are effective. the new york fed says soon as it

learned of the situation, it will alert law enforcement authorities. raising questions about the revolving door and when you hire somebody from one place to the other place, how much information you are bringing with you and what those relationships mean. >> san if i making its first big presentation since it ousted the ceo. meg terrell joins us with more on sanofi. >> it's been three weeks since sanofi removed their ceo. today they are making a case of investment in its pipeline. we are here at the genzyme headquarters, the biotech they bought in 2011 where the chairman and interim ceo finished his presentation. he acknowledged the fact everybody wants to know who the next ceo is going to be. the search is well under way. he says the strategy hasn't changed and there is a driver in the seat. focus will be on its slate of

new medicines. the stock has come under pressure because of the ceo ouster and because of disappointing forecast for growth in its diabetes business. we are seeing pressure on the stock because of that. the company did come out and say it expects to launch 18 new medicines in the next seven years with potential to bring in 30 billion euros the first five years. we'll see how the streets start to react to the presentations over the course of the day. we'll talk with the global head of r&d later today and bring you new updates. back to you. >> thank you very much. up next, walmart cracks down on the scammers. don't expect any more $90 playstation 4 for the rest of the holiday shopping season. an update on that story that lit up the internet yesterday. for tapping into a wealth of experience... for access to one of the top wealth management firms in the country...

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shares of best buy, this stock over ten years has been all over the place. you think it works, doesn't work, going away, coming back. the electronics retailer posting better than expected earnings and revenue. the next quarter will be more important but that is a nice move today up almost 6%.

>> social media exploding with shoppers bragging it used a scam to get playstation 4 for $90. walmart will match prices from 30 major online retailers, but not market play spenders, auction sites or third party sellers. they were agreeing to match prizes from amazon. they are on to you. >> futures were down 66 points. >> we deal with weaker numbers from europe again. they are weak, they're strong. >> pmi was the weakest number in 16 months. >> i'm looking at a story we haven't talked about. a great story. did you read this? this is inside apple's broken sapphire factory? they made the sapphire glass and

went bankrupt. >> not nearly as fascinating as the two new articles discovered in the headron accelerator. both in the proton family. not as important as the higs boson. >> we've got to go. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen, simon hobbs. jim cramer is off today. premarket is weak after lousy macrodata from china, germany, france. solid jobless claims in the u.s. and a cool cpi not helping matters much. we'll get philly fed in about an hour. oil relatively steady below $75 again. our road map with two